Swing State Project

Minnesota is going to possibly lose a seat and with a DFL governor, we’ll be able to do some damage.  These districts should pass any compactness laws as nothing is gerrymandered beyond unacceptability.  My 8 seat map is in the works and near done and both of these maps reflect what I think is possible and appropriate for Minnesota, all Dem seats with one GOP dump district.

I did none of this with a computer program or anything like that.  i was fortunate that MN provides all the info I needed to do this with the MnSOS office providing all the vote totals and also precinct maps of every state house seat, which was the main way I broke down the districts by vote and population when I didnt need to break it down to city/township/precinct level.  The state legislature websites has excellent maps with the two I used constantly were a map of the all the state house seats that also showed city boundaries which made it my go to map for figuring out my planned geography.  More importantly though, a precinct map of the entire state showing election results from dark red to dark blue.  I found county population totals for 2007 and when they broke down beyond that point, I wikipediad it which sometimes included 2006 estimates but mainly for 2000 totals and then I used common sense for population movements, figured out the percentage of growth for that county/area, etc to figure out the 2007 population of said city/precinct.  There is certainly some error involved in this but nothing that would alter more than a couple precincts here or there and then my map accounts for current population movement as opposed to 2000, little bit of a trade off there.

Everything is recorded in excel spreadsheets, they look like a hot mess.

map with county lines can be found here: http://s635.photobucket.com/al…

I figured I had three options with Minneapolis/St. Paul. 1. Put each in their own CD and have to expand them, which meant expanding into more Dem friendly suburbs, which in turn would mean I would end up strengthening Paulsen.  2. Put them both into the same CD, making one uber D+35-like district which would then leave behind all Dem burbs currently in the two districts plus a little bit of one of the cities.  I could then gerrymander two suburban seats into two Dem-leaning districts, most likely.  But McCollum lives in a burb just outside of St Paul so while it wouldnt make an Ellison v McCollum, it would mean her district being gerrymandered to be really Dem and then Paulsen would just get beefed up in return as a consequence.  I could put Ellison in a suburban district but well, that’d never work for him.   McCollum could survive it fine probably.  And option 3, which I chose, was to divide up MSP into three districts and pair them with adjacent suburbs, creating 3 solid Dem seats.  This was the more devious and fun way to go.

I will say at first, doing it this way REALLY bugged me but I was being politically minded, I looked at this and thought, that would never happen.  Quite frankly, I think it would have a decent shot after I’ve sat on it.  The map doesn’t look messed up, it puts the cities and suburbs all compactly into three districts and the other districts all make perfect sense.  It’s compact, simple, but really does a lot of damage.  You just have to get past Minneapolis dominating two districts.

CD1,7,8 all stay heavily rural districts with some exurban areas picked up and CD2 is one huge swath of Republican exurbia.

This map would result in a for sure 6/1 delegation as the seat I eliminated was Bachmann’s and Paulsen’s is now a heavy DFL seat.  An open MN-6 would probably make it 5/2 but maybe not.

As for the tables, the first 2008 is new the district’s 2008 total, the second is former districts.  I also did the 2004 totals since many of you asked in other redistrictings what they would be.  And then are the county totals for each one so one would know where to watch for votes and such.  

MN-1 Rep. Walz	Pop.	2008	2008	2004	2004
Total	740228	52/47	51/47	48.5/51	47/51
	Pop.	Obama	McCain	Kerry	Bush
Houston County	19515	54	44	48	51
Winona County	49802	58	52	48.8	49.3
Watonwan County	7535	53	44	47.5	48
Steele County	36378	46	51	56	43
Dodge County	19552	44	54	42	57
Wabasha County	21783	47	50	47	52
Olmsted County	76470	51	47	47	52
Mower County	38040	60	37	61	38
Freeborn County	31257	57	41	55	44
Waseca County	19528	45	53	43	56
Blue Earth County	59802	55	42	48	51
Nicollet County	31680	54	44	50	49
Dakota County	121909	46	52	43	57

MN-1 is now more based in the southeast corner and is almost indentical to the 1990’s lines (it just worked out that way), this makes it 1% more for Obama as the southwestern rural counties are the Republican ones while the southeast is heavily DFL.  It now includes some of exurban MSP, but still keeps its rural district title.  Walz lives on the edge of the district and should still be quite safe.

MN-2 OPEN	Pop.	2008	2008	2004	2004
Total	736283	42/56	48/50	38/61	45/54
	Pop.	Obama	McCain	Kerry	Bush
Wright County	112870	40	58	38	61
Scott County	126642	44	55	40	60
Carver County	75075	42	57	36	63
Sherburne County	78127	39	60	37	62
Stearns County	81037	39	58	38	60
Anoka County	132044	41	57	40	59
Washington County	7336	43	56	39	60

I combined all the exurban Republican counties from Kline and Bachmann’s districts as they are by far the most Republican in the state and a great population base.  Also, the district took in parts of Hennepin county for population and gerrymandering purposes.  The areas it picked up are exurban for the most part and are extremely Republican, the Lake Minnetonka cities (but not Minnetonka) and also Maple Grove had to be included, and these suburbs lean pretty heavily GOP, as well.

Kline now lives in CD1 but the city he lives in, Lakeville, borders CD2.  I would assume he’d opt to run in the new CD2 as he would certainly not beat Walz and the territory of his included in CD1 are his least favorable counties, and nor would he let Bachmann simply claim CD2 as hers.  Bachmann’s district is simply gone and I would assume she’d move to run here, which  means that I may not have eliminated Bachmann, but actually strengthened her, depending if she could win the primary.  Bachmann could dominate in the caucuses and probably get the GOP endorsement but primary voters would probably be more apt to voting for Kline.  This is a consequence we can live with as at least someone got eliminated still and she is a good fundraiser for us.

MN-3 Rep. Paulsen	Pop.	2008	2008	2004	2004
Total	739257	61/36	52/46	57/41.5	48/51
	Pop.	Obama	McCain	Kerry	Bush
Hennepin County	489340	65	33	60	38
Dakota County	249917	52	42	51	48

This district combines Edina, Eden Prarie,, part of Minnetonka, Bloomington, southern Minneapolis and also Eagan in Dakota County.  All of the suburbs are trending Democratic with most of the areas in the district voting for Obama, but also voting for Paulsen, except for Bloomington which went Madia.  Paulsen lives in Eden Prairie and would be in this district, but would certainly get his ass kicked by just about any Dem challenger.  This district is now solid Dem, whatever the political climate.

MN-4 Rep. McCollum	Pop.	2008	2008	2004	2004
Total	739603827	60/36	64/34	58.5/40	62/37
	Pop.	Obama	McCain	Kerry	Bush
Ramsey County	499891	66	32	63	36
Washington County	199318	53	45	49	50
Dakota County	22126	58	39	61	37
Anoka County	18098	49.2	48.6	44	55

This district stays pretty much the same except for it adds most of Washington county.  I initially divided MSP up three ways perfectly with some of the St. Paul state house seats going to CD5 but this district then dipped below 60% for Obama.  I wanted to maintain at least 60% in CD4&5 so this district maintains all of it’s Ramsey county territory and largely is a St. Paul+burbs district still.

MN-5 Rep. Ellison	Pop.	2008	2008	2004	2004
Total	740611	62/35.5	74/24	60/40	71/28
	Pop.	Obama	McCain	Kerry	Bush
Hennepin County	569459	65	33	61	37.5
Anoka County	171152	53	45	49	50

This district takes in the north half of Minneapolis (where Ellison resides) and includes all the suburbs to the west and then also to the north in Anoka County of Minneapolis, and then also picks up suburbs on the Hennepin/Anoka border and also Blaine.  Everything except Maple Grove and Plymouth are Democratic in Hennepin while the Anoka areas vary with Dem leaning to slight Repub suburbs.  Keith Ellison is really liberal but doesn’t cause very many waves and would still be safe here.

MN-6 Rep. Peterson	Pop.	2008	2008	2004	2004
Total	737087	47/51	47/50	43/55	43/55
	Pop.	Obama	McCain	Kerry	Bush
Kittson County	4505	58	40	50	49
Traverse County	3712	51	46	48	50
Stevens County	9624	49	48	47	51
Swift County	11192	55	42	55	43
Todd County	4378	43	54	41	57
Yellow Medicine County	10000	51	46	49	50
Lake of the Woods County	4095	42	55	38	60
Marshall County	9618	49	48	42	57
Becker County	31964	45	52	40	58
Polk County	30708	51	47	43	56
Pope County	11065	51	47	49	49
Clearwater County	8245	44	54	43	56
Red Lake County	4118	51	45	44	54
Mahnomen County	5129	61	36	53	45
Pennington County	13756	50	48	44	54
Clay County	54835	57	41	47	52
Otter Tail County	57031	42	55	37	61
Douglas County	36075	44	54	44	54
Grant County	6021	51	46	49	50
Big Stone County	5385	52	46	50	48
Lac qui Parle County	7258	52	46	53	46
Renville County	16132	48	49	45	53
Lyon County	24695	48	50	42	57
Beltrami County	43609	54	44	50	48
Roseau County	15946	40	58	31	68
Chippewa County	12465	52	46	52	47
Wilkin County	6418	45	52	33	65
Sibley County	15007	45	52	39	59
Kandiyohi County	40784	46	52	44	55
Norman County	6685	62	35	47	51
Hubbard County	18781	42	56	42	57
Wadena County	13382	40	58	39	59
McLeod County	9603	40	57	36.5	62
Meeker County	23211	43	54	43	56
Le Seur County	28034	47	51	45	54
Stearns County	2465	55	43	49	51
Wright County	4502	48	50	48	51
Martin County	20462	41	56	42	57
Brown County	26013	43	55	37	61
Murray County	8511	49	48	44	54
Jackson County	10883	47	51	46	52
Cottwonwood County	11349	46	52	43	56
Nobles County	20128	48	50	42	56
Pipestone County	9305	42	55	38	61
Rock County	9498	42	56	39	60
Faribault County	14869	46	51	43	55
Fillmore County	21037	53	44	49	50
Lincoln County	5877	49	48	47	52
Redwood County	15519	42	55	38	62
Watonwan County	3487	41	56	38	60

This is the old MN-7 with it having the same base and will have the same congresscritter.  The district had to expand and the only option was into CD1 as CD2 areas are way Republican and the old CD8 is a northern Iron Range district that consistently elect a pretty progressive Dem.  (Oberstar is a lot more liberal than one would think based off the district.)  I managed to only make this district a tick more Republican, which is pretty good considering the areas to expand were all Republican.

MN-7 Rep. Oberstar	Pop.	2008	2008	2004	2004
Total	737135	53/44	53/45	52/46	53/46
Cook County	5398	60	37	53	45
Lake County	10741	60	38	60	39
St. Louis County	200528	65	33	65	34
Carlton County	33893	62	35	63	36
Pine County	228164	49	48	50	49
Koochiching County	13459	54	44	50	48
ItascaCounty	44542	55	42	55	44
Cass County	28723	45	53	43	56
Crow Wing County	61648	45	53	42	57
Morrison County	32733	39	58	41	58
Mille Lacs County	26354	45	52	43	55
Kanabec County	16090	44	53	44	55
Aitkin County	15910	49	49	48	51
Chisago County	50128	44	54	43	56
Isanti County	38921	41	56	41	58
Benton County	39504	44	53	44	55
Stearns County	62549	53	46	50	48
Sherburne County	8160	57	40	56	42
Washington County	7655	43	51	42	57

This is the old CD8 with its base up north in Duluth and on the Iron Range.  Unlike what many have done, I left it completely intact except by removing Bemidji. I put in St. Cloud and then also included the colleges St. Ben’s and St. John’s which are blue.  It was tricky to figure out where to put St. Cloud since it is +2000 votes for Obama but the counties attached to it are all so Republian.  The district had to pick up counties south for population and I managed to make it a tick less Republican.  Oberstar is safe and so is his successor, House Majority Leader Sertich.  He could be speaker if Kelliher runs for governor, and he’s young so it’ll be in our hands for the next 50 years guaranteed.

I just got back from a dual county fish fry between Denton and Collin county Democratic parties, and no I didn’t have the fish, I despise seafood.

Anyways, the speakers for the evening were Mayor Bill White, Former Comptroller John Sharp, Ambassador Schieffer, and candidate for TX-26 Neil Durrance. Before I go on, let me say I had already decided I was backing White for Senate, but I will try and be fair in my analysis (even if it sounds one sided, it’s how I saw it).

In Speaker order:

John Sharp for US Senate – Came across folksy and of the East Texas variety. Dry stump speech. Still, he’s starting charismatically at the level that Chris Bell finished in 2006, which is good enough to pass as a candidate. Got much better in the Q&A when he somehow started talking about the economy on a question that was about Iraqi withdrawal.

Bill White for US Senate – Best speaker of the night and it showed afterwards with the crowds that gathered around him afterwards. Very charismatic and as a candidate sounded like he was in a whole different world than the rest of tonight’s speakers and those from 2006 and 2008 (If Chris Bell at the end of the 2006 gov race was a jump from Bell at the beginning, and Noriega was a jump from that, White is a jump 3 times in candidate quality on the stump). White’s speech, unlike what I heard from the other candidates and what I heard from previous statewide candidates focused much more on policy and results rather than “we are right and we’re democrats, yadda yadda yadda, let’s go win!” But that’s what you get when you have a high level office holder running for a higher office. He also mentioned that his Q2 financial report should show he has more total donors this quarter than that of all the announced republicans combined. Additionally, White opened his speech with what I assume was a dig at Cornyn saying Texas needs a Senator who gets to work rather than working on helping their political party.

Neil Durrance for TX-26 – I’ve known Neil for a few years when he was county chairman for Denton county. Neil has said some odd things and is a bit odd himself, however, Neil The Candidate seems to be inclined to watch his tongue a bit better. Also, he is miles above the previous challengers for Burgess such as the old crazy guy (2008, Ken Leach), the crazy guy (2006, Tim Barnwell), and the professional clown whose highlight is that he got to hold his clown show for Christopher Reeve once (2004, Lico Reyes). Neil seems to be the first guy in this race who won’t embarrass Denton County Democrats since I started going to school up here. I think he can crack the 40% barrier in a CD-26 race which none of the previous candidates have done.

Tom Schieffer for Governor – Schieffer carries himself very well and I could see him as a governor. His speech focused a lot on education and how his time in Asia as Bush’s ambassador to Japan made him realize how far Texas was slipping in everything. While he is Bush’s friend, he is certainly not friends with Perry or Hutchison and seems eager to take them both on regarding economics. White and Sharp both spoke highly of Schieffer, so he seems to have the establishment support locked up, as a result my hopes of a Jim Turner candidacy seem to have died tonight. I also kinda doubt State Sen. Van Deputt or Travis County DA Ronnie Earle will jump in for Gov (although Lt. Gov and Attorney General are still available). Overall, very bland, but it looks like he’s it and seems fair enough to carry the banner. How the Senate special election ends up will result in how much attention Schieffer gets in his race.

Update: To summarize the themes of each candidate:

Sharp: Its the economy, and we’re going broke. Also, I’ll drop some code words that I may be the more socially liberal candidate.

White: I fixed Houston and rarely had a party line vote when I was Mayor. The future is education and energy investment.

Durrance: Reach out to independents and bring them into the process not because we’re Democrats, but because we are right.

Schieffer: I can manage businesses, The Texas Rangers, and the state of Texas where it starts with education. Also, being good for business goes beyond tax cuts.

Alright, that’s it. Let me know what ya’ll think and give me some questions if you can think of them. Hurry, my memory is going fast in my old age of 24!

Update2

I’m going to copy something said by my friend John McClelland in a comment on Burnt Orange Report. John was the Democratic nominee for Texas House District 64 (City of Denton) in 2008.

“I don’t want politicians who live in the past. When I listened to Scheiffer, and even John Sharp, it is like a frat boy talking about the good ol’ days that they want everyone else to relive. Unfortunately, we don’t live in the 70s and 80s anymore, and living in the past is what killed the Democratic Party in the first place.”

This kind of attitude/content came across in the Sharp and Schieffer speeches which may have helped present them as being a bit more boring compared to that of Mayor White’s. There is a very real stuck in the past mindset with a lot of the big names in Texas democratic politics. Heck, even Chris Bell couldn’t give a speech without mentioning how he filed an ethics complaint against Tom DeLay when he served in the House. I still think this is an important comment though addressing where Schieffer and Sharp are coming from compared to White.

Come senators, congressmen

Please heed the call

Don’t stand in the doorway

Don’t block up the hall

UPDATE: We’ve added a neat little feature to the site. If you post an HTML table, you can make the columns sortable by putting the phrase class="sortable" in the opening table tag. See our Open Seat Watch for some examples.

Harstad Strategic Research for the DGA (5/31-6/4, likely voters):

Diane Denish (D): 57

Heather Wilson (R): 35

Undecided: 8

Diane Denish (D): 57

Steve Pearce (R): 35

Undecided: 8

(MoE: ±4%)

As far as we know, no one has polled the New Mexico governor’s race until now… or even paid much attention to the race. That’s because, with the current field, this open seat is looking like, if not a slam dunk, then at least a poorly contested lay-up for Team Blue. Not only is there New Mexico’s big shift to the left in the 2008 election, but also a huge disparity in recruitment. Lt. Gov. Diane Denish has been the long-time heir apparent for the Dems (although state Senate majority leader Michael Sanchez is looking at the race), while all the GOP has cobbled together is official candidate National Guard Brig. Gen. Greg Zanetti, along with two explorers: state Rep. Janice Arnold-Jones and Allen Weh, former state party chair best known for his supporting role in the U.S. Attorney scandal.

Still, the possibility has loomed in the distance that the GOP might field a higher-profile candidate: either one of the two former Reps., Heather Wilson or Steve Pearce, who basically destroyed each other en route to Tom Udall’s easy 2008 Senate victory. If this internal poll for the DGA is even remotely close to reality, then there’s not much of a race here even if Wilson or Pearce show up, as both of them lose 57-35. Denish even leads Wilson 53-40 in NM-01, Wilson’s base of operations for over a decade as she kept America safe from stray nipples. Pearce has also been weighing a run to get back his old seat in NM-02; if this poll is any indication, that’d be a better use of his time. (H/t Campaign Diaries.)

RaceTracker: NM-Gov

• FL-Sen: Here’s a pretty serious repudiation of Charlie Crist by the GOP party faithful. At a county party straw poll in Pasco County (Tampa exurbs, one county removed from Crist’s Pinellas County home), Marco Rubio beat Crist 73 to 9. Luckily for Crist, the primary electorate includes a much broader sample than the party’s diehard activist base who actually show up for meetings… but this shows just how badly things are for him with the base.

• IL-Sen: Bad news for AG Lisa Madigan, whose list of demands for a Senate race include an Obama endorsement, a cleared field, and no brown M&Ms at the catering table: Barack Obama announced that he wouldn’t be endorsing anyone in the Senate race. Good news for Roland Burris, on the other hand: a state prosecutor has decided that Burris won’t face perjury charges over his vague statements to the state legislature about his appointment to the Senate by disgraced former governor Rod Blagojevich.

• KY-Sen: SoS Trey Grayson has decided to start fundraising like a madman in the coming weeks, scheduling eight more events before the end of the fundraising quarter in June. Grayson opened his exploratory committee on May 6, so he has had only half-a-quarter in which to try to top Jim Bunning.

• MN-Sen: The FEC released two draft opinions that, if enacted by the full commission, will prevent Norm Coleman from tapping his campaign funds for his legal defense fees associated with his FBI investigation. (This doesn’t affect the costs of paying for the recount, which are paid in part by the Coleman Minnesota Recount Committee instead.)

• CA-Gov: Has anyone noticed that LA Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, who everyone assumes is running for Governor, hasn’t taken any steps toward running for Governor? The folks at Calitics have noticed, and the fact that Villaraigosa (whose popularity in LA seems to be faltering) just took over the 2nd VP role for the US Conference of Mayors (which puts him on track to become the organization’s president in 2011) is another tea leaf that he won’t run. If he doesn’t run, that just leaves an all-Bay Area clash between old (Jerry Brown) and new (Gavin Newsom) for the Dem nod.

• MN-Gov: GOP state Rep. Paul Kohls from Minneapolis’s western exurbs has announced his candidacy for the Minnesota governor’s race. He joins former GOP state Rep. Bill Haas as official candidates, but at least a dozen more people seem intent on entering the race.

• FL-15: Rep. Bill Posey got nothing but scorn when he aligned himself with the most tinfoil elements of the GOP in introducing his birther legislation, but he’s just ratcheting up the crazy. Posey picked up four more co-sponsors (Culberson, Carter, Neugebauer, and Campbell). Also, while being interviewed on WorldNetDaily’s radio show about the bill, Posey outright accused Barack Obama of hiding something and, for good measure, tried launching a feud with Rachel Maddow.

• NM-01: Jon Barela, a former vice-chair of the New Mexico GOP and former head of the Albuquerque Hispano Chamber of Commerce, officially announced his candidacy against Rep. Martin Heinrich. He did so with the endorsement of 2008 candidate Sheriff Darren White. While it’s now a D+5 district, it’s almost half Latino, so Barela could make some noise if he gets some traction in the Latino community.

• OH-08: Speaker Minority leader John Boehner got a break: his would-be primary challenger, iconoclastic Butler County Sheriff Richard Jones, has opted not to get in the race. This frees Boehner up to spend more of summer of 2010 fundraising for other House candidates, or at least working on his tan.

• VA-05: Very little has been happening in VA-05 while everyone waits to see whether ex-Rep. Virgil Goode will try to get his old job back from Rep. Tom Perriello in this GOP-leaning district in rural Virginia. One GOPer isn’t waiting, though: Cordel Faulk is publicly considering the race. Faulk hasn’t held office, but he has an interesting job; he’s the spokesman for Charlottesville-based professor and pundit Larry Sabato.

• NY-St. Senate: With the New York State Senate collapsed into a 31-31 tie, turncoat Dem (and, for now, Senate president and thus acting Lt. Gov.) Pedro Espada Jr. has come up with a rather novel legal theory in the absence of any constitutional clarification: he gets two votes, one ordinary vote as Senator and one tie-breaker vote as LG. Of course, nobody else seems to think this, and other theories are popping up as to who might get a tie-breaking vote (Former LG and current Gov. David Paterson? Assembly speaker Sheldon Silver?) if the Senators can’t figure out how to break the deadlock themselves. Meanwhile, a likely primary challenger to Espada has already popped up: Haile Rivera, an activist and ally of city councilor Eric Gioia who had previously been planning his own city council run this year.

Looks like we can already add a new name to the House Open Seat Watch:

While he is not ready to make a public announcement, John Maginnis reports Rep. Charlie Melancon (D-LA) has decided to run for the U.S. Senate. Sources say he “he has told national Democratic campaign officials” he will challenge Sen. David Vitter (R-LA) in 2010.

“While Melancon earlier this year seemed to have ruled out running, a renewed press by the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, armed with a poll showing Vitter’s vulnerability, got Melancon to reconsider.”

This is a tremendous get for the DSCC, though of course holding Melancon’s R+12 seat in LA-03 will probably be an extreme challenge.

UPDATE (James): Melancon is staying mum, but he says that he will be making a formal announcement “in the coming weeks”.

RaceTracker: LA-Sen | LA-03

It’s been a while since we posted our last 2010 House Open Seat Watch, so our crack research team down at SSP Labs took extra time in compiling this latest entry of the Watch. Special acknowledgment must be given to SSP Forensic Open Seat Analyst DavidNYC for making sure that no stone was left unturned.

So once again, we’ve compiled a list of confirmed and potential retirements/vacancies in the House, as well as a list of seats that we’ve removed from our watch list (which is available below the fold). Once again, please note that “age” in our charts reflects the incumbent’s age on election day, 2010. Blue boxes indicate a new entry (or an incumbent who has been shuffled between categories). All tables are now sortable – just click on any column header to sort.

Here we go:

Only one new open seat for our list this time, and open seat fans can thank a Democratic operative named Barack Obama for making it happen through the appointment of upstate New York Rep. John McHugh to be the nation’s newest Secretary of the Army. We can probably expect to see more retirements later this summer; the Congressional recess in August is a particularly popular time for sitting House members to take stock of their lives and make decisions on the future of their DC careers. So who might be clearing out? Perhaps some of these representatives will be the next ones to hang up their spurs:

See anything we missed? A list of incumbents whose names we’ve removed from our Open Seat Watch is available below the fold.

Resolved vacancies.

Oh boy, the wingnut is strong in these folks.  Dave Weigel reports that Rep. Bill Posey (R-FL), (in)famous for his birther bill requiring documentation that a candidate for President was born in the U.S., has picked up four more co-sponsors, all Republicans (of course).  They are:

John R. Carter (TX-31)

John Culberson (TX-07)

Randy Neugebauer (TX-19)

John Campbell (CA-48)

Rep. Bob Goodlatte (VA-06) had already signed on last month.  More after the fold….

Posey says those Congressmen came to him to co-sponsor the bill, that it wasn’t him begging them to do so.  And then he launched into an invective against Rachel Maddow.

You may recall that [Stephen] Colbert used the “F” word to describe on national TV a relationship my grandmother, bless her heart, deceased grandmother, must have had with an alligator to come up with the likes of me. [Keith] Olbermann named me the Worst Person in the World and angry woman Rachel Maddow has just trashed me on every show, and asked me to come on her show. You know, I won’t do it cause she’s got a lousy, low rated show, and I don’t want to give her the ratings, quite frankly. I’d love to go on and debate her and set the record straight.

Just so y’all remember, here‘s what Colbert had to say about Bill Posey.

And when Posey got upset at Colbert for doing so, he just brought upon more pain to himself with Colbert’s response.

Now, most of these people sit in VERY Republican districts where you probably have a significant chunk of the population that actually believe Obama was not really born here.  Per SSP’s presidential vote by CD, a whopping 72% of Neugebauer’s district voted for McCain, making it the 9th MOST Republican district in the country, in terms of the vote share Obama got.  So forget about defeating Neugebauer at the polls with his co-sponsorship, he might gain support from his constituents for doing this.  Sad, but true.

And Goodlatte (57%), Carter (58%), and Culberson (58%) also come from districts McCain easily won by double digits.  But Bill Posey himself may be in for a world of hurt, and should be.  McCain only beat Obama 51%-48% in Posey’s own FL-15 district.  Posey himself won 53%-42% over underfunded Democrat Dr. Stephen Blythe, outspending him by over an 8:1 margin.  With 48% of the district voting for Obama, I’m sure we could get enough of them upset at Posey for pulling this kind of shit to get them to the polls.  (Anyone know if Blythe wants to run again, or if there’s another Democrat waiting in the wings?)

What’s more, out here in California, Obama narrowly won Campbell’s district, 49.47% to 48.72%.  (Campbell himself easily won against Democrat Steve Young the last three elections.)  Irvine City Councilwoman Beth Krom has announced she’s running against Campbell, as Young is moving over to try his hand at winning the state assembly seat.

Ridicule is well deserved for these Republicans, for now.  But if we want to send a message, the best way would be kicking the vulnerable ones out of Congress at the ballot box in 2010.  Wanna repudiate the birthers?  Send Posey and Campbell packing next year.

Strategic Vision (R) (6/12-14, likely voters, 4/17-19 in parens):

Team Blue:

Roy Barnes: 49 (56)

Thurbert Baker: 30 (29)

David Poythress: 5 (4)

DuBose Porter: 2 (2)

Undecided: 14 (9)

(MoE: ±3%)

Barnes takes a slight dip, but nothing too dramatic — he’s still the man to beat for the top job. Poythress will be in this until the bitter end, but I’d be surprised if a guy like Porter would continue his bid in the face of unbelievable odds.

Team Megachurch:

John Oxendine: 35

Karen Handel: 13

Nathan Deal: 12

Eric Johnson: 4

Ray McBerry: 2

Austin Scott: 2

Undecided: 32

(MoE: ±3%)

No clean trendlines here, since Strategic Vision’s last poll of the GOP primary had a number of different candidates in the mix (Lynn Westmoreland and Jack Kingston, for starters), but Oxendine was holding onto a 33-14 lead over state SoS Karen Handel in April. Nathan Deal’s entry into this race hasn’t really changed the calculus yet.

RaceTracker: GA-Gov

*** Update July 7: Now I have all precinct data, PVI calculations are complete. ***

Pennsylvania is expected to lose a district so it will have 18. My goals are:

– Make districts that look fair, even if they’re not.

– Keep communities together

– Try not to screw over any incumbent Democrats

– Put Democratic territory in Democratic districts

– Anticipate future voting trends

Here is my redistricting plan:



Click on the image for a full size screenshot.

Philadelphia closeup:

1st District (old 1st) D+21

“The Eastern Philadelphia district”

Incumbent: Bob Brady (D)

The first district has been shifted east. It is now 51% white, 21% black, 6% Asian and 20% Hispanic. It gave 73.59% of its vote to Obama, making it D+21. The old 1st is D+35.

County	#Obama	#McCain	%Obama	%McCain
Philadelphia (pt)	223428	77797	73.59%	25.62%

2nd District (old 2nd) D+40

“The Western Philadelphia district”

Incumbent: Chaka Fattah (D)

The second district is now 24% white, 67% black, 5% Asian and 3% Hispanic. It gave an incredible 93.03% of its vote to Obama, making it D+40. The old 2nd is D+38. It will be the third most Democratic district in America, behind only NY-15 and NY-16, and tied with Washington DC.

County	#Obama	#McCain	%Obama	%McCain
Philadelphia (pt)	341893	24374	93.03%	6.63%

3rd District (old 7th) D+9

“The Delaware County district”

Incumbent: whoever succeeds Joe Sestak in 2010

This district has been made more Democratic. It takes up all of Delaware County, the rest of Philadelphia, and a small amount of Montgomery.

County	#Obama	#McCain	%Obama	%McCain
Delaware	178870	115273	60.22%	38.81%
Montgomery (pt)	37275	17659	67.45%	31.95%
Philadelphia (pt)	30659	15050	66.38%	32.58%
Total	246804	147982	61.94%	37.14%

4th District (old 13th) D+6

“The Montgomery district”

Incumbent: Allyson Schwartz (D)

This district is now entirely within Montgomery County.

County	#Obama	#McCain	%Obama	%McCain
Montgomery (pt)	215206	147338	58.85%	40.29%

5th District (old 8th) D+1

“The Bucks district”

Incumbent: Patrick Murphy (D)

By removing its territory from Philadelphia and Montgomery and adding territory from Lehigh and Northampton the district becomes a little less Democratic. It stops short of Allentown and Bethlehem but takes Easton from the Dent district. Patrick Murphy should be safe.

County	#Obama	#McCain	%Obama	%McCain
Bucks	179031	150248	53.78%	45.13%
Lehigh (pt)	6770	7463	47.02%	51.84%
Northampton (pt)	11346	7145	60.55%	38.13%
Total	197147	164856	53.86%	45.04%

6th District (old 16th) D+1

“The Chester district”

Incumbent: Joe Pitts (R)

The current district takes all of Lancaster County and some of Chester. In this plan it takes all of Chester and some of Lancaster, including the city. Chester is the more Democratic county, so this shift makes it more Democratic. Joe Pitts may be able to win this district but after he retires a Democrat should win it.

County	#Obama	#McCain	%Obama	%McCain
Chester	137833	114421	54.19%	44.98%
Lancaster (pt)	38485	35210	51.78%	47.37%
Total	176318	149631	53.64%	45.04%

7th District (old 6th, sort of) R+5

“The Reading district”

Incumbent: whoever succeeds Jim Gerlach in 2010

My ideal scenario: Jim Gerlach runs for higher office and a Democrat from Berks County wins the open 6th district in 2010. This Democrat becomes popular quickly and easily wins the more Republican district in 2012. Over time Berks trends more Democratic and Lancaster trends more moderate.

My less ideal scenario: A Republican wins it in 2010, or Jim Gerlach stays, so we make it more Republican.

It is made of almost all of Berks, most of Lancaster, and a tiny amount of Montgomery.

County	#Obama	#McCain	%Obama	%McCain
Berks (pt)	92672	73890	54.89%	43.77%
Lancaster (pt)	61101	91358	39.73%	59.40%
Montgomery (pt)	912	555	61.17%	37.22%
Total	154685	165803	47.72%	51.15%

8th District (old 15th) D+4

“The Allentown district”

Incumbent: Charles Dent (R)

The district loses territory from its southeastern border to the Murphy district, and gains most of Monroe County. This shift makes it more Democratic.

County	#Obama	#McCain	%Obama	%McCain
Lehigh (pt)	80319	55919	58.17%	40.50%
Monroe (pt)	30676	23064	56.48%	42.47%
Northampton (pt)	63909	51366	54.71%	43.97%
Total	174904	130349	56.57%	42.16%

9th District (old 19th) R+10

“The York district”

Incumbent: Todd Platts (R)

Because of its fast population growth, the district loses some area. It is still strongly Republican.

County	#Obama	#McCain	%Obama	%McCain
Adams (pt)	13783	19866	40.49%	58.36%
Cumberland (pt)	42156	54258	43.23%	55.65%
York	82839	109268	42.65%	56.26%
Total	138778	183392	42.60%	56.30%

10th District (old 17th) R+5

“The Harrisburg district”

Incumbent: Tim Holden (D)

This district is still based in Harrisburg. It loses strongly Republican territory in Perry County and gains strongly Republican territory in Northumberland and Montour Counties. Tim Holden keeps getting reelected despite the Republican lean of the district so he should be able to continue. Northumberland and Montour are currently in the Carney district so they are used to having a Democratic Congressman. It is only 0.18% more Republican than before.

County	#Obama	#McCain	%Obama	%McCain
Berks (pt)	4375	6623	39.15%	59.27%
Columbia (pt)	5862	4847	53.62%	44.34%
Dauphin	69975	58238	54.02%	58.86%
Lebanon	23310	34314	39.98%	58.86%
Montour	3364	4574	41.93%	57.01%
Northumberland	14329	19018	42.22%	56.04%
Schuylkill	28300	33767	44.88%	53.55%
Total	149515	161381	47.47%	51.24%

11th District (old 11th) D+3

“The Scranton district”

Incumbent: Paul Kanjorski (D) or his successor

The district now includes all of Lackawanna and Luzerne Counties.

County	#Obama	#McCain	%Obama	%McCain
Carbon	13464	12957	50.01%	48.13%
Columbia (pt)	7401	9600	42.67%	55.37%
Lackawanna	67520	39488	62.59%	36.60%
Luzerne	72492	61127	53.63%	45.22%
Monroe (pt)	8777	5229	62.11%	37.00%
Wyoming	5985	6983	45.55%	53.15%
Total	175639	135384	55.83%	43.04%

12th District (old 10th, and most of 5th) R+8

“The northern district”

Incumbent: Chris Carney (D)

The district takes all of the New York border except Erie County, and it extends south into Centre County. In 2008 Carney was reelected by a comfortable margin and this proposed district is 0.12% more Democratic. I expect northern Pennsylvania will eventually become more Democratic, like Upstate New York. Giving them a Democratic Congressman should speed up the trend. One problem is Glenn Thompson, Republican Congressman from the 5th District, lives in Centre County. He should run in the new 14th.

County	#Obama	#McCain	%Obama	%McCain
Bradford	10306	15057	39.97%	58.39%
Cameron	879	1323	39.15%	58.93%
Centre	41950	32992	55.37%	43.55%
Clinton	7097	7504	47.98%	50.73%
Elk	7290	6676	51.08%	46.78%
Forest	1038	1366	42.47%	55.89%
Lycoming (pt)	17163	27587	37.91%	60.94%
McKean	6465	9224	40.54%	57.84%
Pike	11493	12518	47.33%	51.55%
Potter	2300	5109	30.64%	68.06%
Sullivan	1233	1841	39.52%	59.01%
Susquehanna	8381	10633	43.46%	55.13%
Tioga	6390	11326	35.53%	62.98%
Warren	8537	9685	46.10%	52.30%
Wayne	9892	12702	43.32%	55.63%
Total	140414	165543	45.29%	53.39%

13th District (old 9th) R+19

“The south-central district”

Incumbent: Bill Shuster (R)

It’s more compact than before, and shifted a little bit east. This is the northern Bible Belt. At R+19 there are only a small handful of districts in America that are more Republican.

County	#Obama	#McCain	%Obama	%McCain
Adams (pt)	3850	6483	36.83%	62.02%
Bedford	6059	16124	27.00%	71.84%
Blair	19813	32708	37.31%	61.59%
Cumberland (pt)	6150	9471	38.95%	59.99%
Franklin	21169	41906	33.26%	65.85%
Fulton	1576	4642	24.99%	73.61%
Huntingdon	6621	11745	35.54%	63.04%
Juniata	3068	6484	31.59%	66.77%
Lycoming (pt)	1218	2693	30.72%	67.92%
Mifflin	5375	10929	32.57%	66.23%
Perry	6396	13058	32.39%	66.13%
Snyder	5382	9900	34.77%	63.96%
Somerset (pt)	5323	11473	31.21%	67.27%
Union	7333	9859	42.14%	56.66%
Total	99333	187475	34.23%	64.60%

14th District (parts of the old 5th, 12th and 9th) R+10

“The Johnstown district”

Incumbent: Glenn Thompson (R) [from Centre County]

I’ve been told this area would elect a Democratic Congressman despite its Republican PVI because it’s historically Democratic. I’ll believe it when I see it. This will be the whitest district in PA at 96.1%.

County	#Obama	#McCain	%Obama	%McCain
Cambria	32451	31995	49.42%	48.72%
Clearfield	14555	18662	43.05%	55.19%
Fayette (pt)	7274	10319	40.84%	57.94%
Indiana	17065	19727	45.75%	52.88%
Jefferson	3068	6484	31.59%	66.77%
Somerset (pt)	7555	10213	41.71%	56.38%
Westmoreland (pt)	41679	61144	40.07%	58.79%
Total	123647	158544	43.17%	55.35%

15th District (parts of the old 3rd and 4th) R+13

“The Butler district”

Incumbent: Tim Murphy (R)

Tim Murphy (R) lives in the 17th and Jason Altmire (D) lives in the 15th. They should trade districts.

County	#Obama	#McCain	%Obama	%McCain
Allegheny (pt)	62879	80564	43.48%	55.71%
Armstrong	11138	18542	37.03%	61.64%
Butler	32260	57074	35.68%	63.12%
Clarion	6756	10737	38.03%	60.44%
Venango	9238	13718	39.64%	58.66%
Westmoreland (pt)	16670	22239	42.44%	56.62%
Total	138941	202874	40.22%	58.72%

16th District (old 14th) D+14

“The Pittsburgh district”

Incumbent: Mike Doyle (D)

The district gets bigger because the Pittsburgh area lost population. I shifted it east so the Altmire district could get some more Democratic towns along the Ohio River.

County	#Obama	#McCain	%Obama	%McCain
Allegheny (pt)	225371	107892	66.97%	32.06%

17th District (parts of the old 12th and 18th) R+3

“The southwest district”

Incumbent: Jason Altmire (D) [assuming Murtha retires, or gets indicted]

This southwestern PA district is compact and Obama wins it. Yes it’s possible.

County	#Obama	#McCain	%Obama	%McCain
Allegheny (pt)	84521	83501	49.84%	49.23%
Beaver (pt)	14587	12626	52.91%	45.80%
Fayette (pt)	18592	15762	53.50%	45.36%
Greene	7829	7889	49.00%	49.38%
Washington	46122	50752	47.04%	51.76%
Westmoreland (pt)	6285	4989	55.23%	43.84%
Total	177936	175519	49.80%	49.12%

18th District (old 3rd) R+1

“The Erie district”

Incumbent: Kathy Dahlkemper (D)

Now it’s a proper Democratic Northwest PA district.

County	#Obama	#McCain	%Obama	%McCain
Beaver (pt)	25912	30269	45.52%	53.18%
Crawford	16780	20750	44.00%	54.41%
Erie	75775	50351	59.34%	39.43%
Lawrence	19711	21851	46.82%	51.90%
Mercer	26411	26565	49.07%	49.36%
Total	164589	149786	51.65%	47.00%