Swing State Project

Doc’s Political Parlor deserves some major props for releasing an awesome election directory of every race and every candidate for the Alabama state House in 2010. Not only that, they provide SSP/Cook-style race ratings for all 105 House districts in the state, which really goes a long way toward giving a novice like myself on Alabama politics a quick primer on the states’s key downballot battles.

This is the sort of thing that I’d like to see more state blogs attempt to do. It’s extremely difficult to follow state legislative races in all 50 states, but if every major state blog poured the time and resources into a Political Parlor-style legislative election directory/race ratings project, the benefits would be incalculable.

UPDATE (David): Nice seeing everyone looking to get in on the action! BTW, Doc’s guide to state Senate races is here.

Rasmussen Reports (6/16, likely voters, no trendlines):

Arlen Specter (D-inc): 50

Pat Toomey (R): 39

Undecided: 7

Joe Sestak (D): 41

Pat Toomey (R): 35

Undecided: 18

(MoE: ±5%)

This is the second half of the Rasmussen poll from yesterday which tested the Dem primary. I don’t really love it when pollsters dribble out results over the course of several days… though I’m sure that if I were in the polling business myself, I’d do exactly the same thing. Anyhow, this survey shows what we all know: Pat Toomey is a Dead Man.

RaceTracker: PA-Sen

• IL-Sen: AG Lisa Madigan is apparently warming up to the idea of running for Senate instead of Governor (thanks to some entreaties from some big players — Madigan met with Barack Obama at the White House last week). However, according to the Sun-Times’ Lynn Sweet, she has some demands: she wants an endorsement from Obama when she announces, and she wants the field cleared of rivals.

That’s potentially very awk-ward, though, as state Treasurer (and, more notably, Friend of Barack) Alexi Giannoulias is already in the race, and has been fundraising very well (Madigan is sitting on $4 million, but that’s marked for a governor’s race and can’t be transferred to a federal race, so she’d be back to square one). Giannoulias issued a strong statement today that he wouldn’t be “bullied” out of the race, and sought to tie Madigan to party insiders. And even if Obama does manage to dangle some sort of carrot to entice Giannoulias out of the race, does he have the same sort of traction with Chris Kennedy, who also looks set to get in?

• NC-Sen: Here’s not the way to rebut polls showing you in bad shape: with a transparently pathetic internal poll. The Richard Burr camp points to a poll that reveals him “winning” (albeit with no specific topline numbers) against SoS Elaine Marshall, but with the head-to-head question asked only after questions as to which of the two would better serve as a “check and balance on the policies of Barack Obama.” No results against other interested Dems (like Mike McIntyre) were discussed.

• NH-Sen: More focus today on the possibility of Kelly Ayotte for the GOP Senate nomination. Attorney General in NH is an appointed position, so she’s never faced voters before, but that may be an asset; the rest of the state’s GOP bench, in Chuck Todd’s words, “all seem to have the smell of defeat on them.” Meanwhile, Rahm Emanuel will be hosting a DC fundraiser for Rep. Paul Hodes later this month, as Hodes (who banked only $260K in 1Q) looks to pick up the fundraising pace.

• NV-Sen: In an example of the law of unintended consequences, John Ensign’s little indiscretions are further complicating the Nevada GOP’s efforts to find a suitable challenger to Harry Reid, as insiders get distracted by assessing the fallout. If today is any indication, it looks like the fallout is growing, not shrinking, with allegations of a second affair, and Ensign walking back his initial “extortion” claims in view of the complicated financial links between Ensign and the Hampton clan. For emphasis, if there were any doubt about it, ex-Rep. Jon Porter confirmed today that he won’t be running against Reid.

• SD-Gov, SD-AL: Rep. Stephanie Herseth Sandlin hasn’t ruled out running for Governor in 2010; she said she’ll make a decision by the August recess.

• CA-03: Many insiders seem settled on CA-03 as the Democrats’ top target in California next year. Unbeknownst to many, there’s a third Democrat in the race against Rep. Dan Lungren, physician Ami Bera, who got in in April… and he’s actually been fundraising like a champ, claiming he’s on pace to have $250K at the end of June.

• CA-44: CA-44 seems like a good place for a pickup, too, especially now that Rep. Ken Calvert is getting softened up with a primary challenge from his friendly neighborhood teabagger. Real estate broker Chris Riggs said the race would be a “litmus test” and referred to Calvert as a “big tax-and-spend incumbent.”

• FL-08: State House speaker Larry Cretul (who just took over the job in March, in the wake of former speaker Ray Sansom’s corruption indictment) may already be looking to move up. He’s been talking to the NRCC about taking on Rep. Alan Grayson in this Dem-trending R+2 district. This may push out state Rep. Steve Precourt, who said he wouldn’t want to share a primary with Cretul. Cretul might still face an uphill battle in a primary, though, as his base is in Marion County, rather than the district’s population center of Orange County, where another likely GOPer candidate, Rich Crotty, is mayor.

• MS-01: State Sen. Merle Flowers has decided to forego a challenge to Cold Chillin’ Travis (apparently at the behest of the NRCC), clearing a path for fellow Sen. Alan Nunnelee – for now. Others may get in, and in a move reminiscent of the disastrous post-primary period last year, Flowers did not endorse Nunnelee. The big advantage for Nunnelee is that he, like Childers, is from the Tupelo region, whereas Flowers (like Greg Davis) is from DeSoto County in the south Memphis suburbs. (D)

• DSCC/DCCC: Tonight’s DSCC/DCCC fundraiser with Barack Obama is projected to raise $3 million, an amount that seems kind of weak compared with the $14.5 million haul from the NRCC/NRSC dinner a few weeks earlier. However, lobbyists were banned from the event, and the GOP haul involves some accounting sleight of hand, as the $14.5 million is the two committees’ entire fundraising haul over the eight-week period since early April. In addition, there’s a lower-profile fundraising breakfast/”issues conference” planned for Friday morning where there’s no Obama appearance but also no lobbyist ban in place.

• Census: It looks like we might break the logjam that’s keeping incoming Census Director Robert Groves from being confirmed; it appears he’s part of a blanket hold on several dozen nominees, not a specific hold, and Susan Collins is happy with Groves and working with Democrats to get him in place. In other Census news, the tinfoil-hat wingnuts intent on avoiding and/or lying to the Census have a high-profile supporter: Rep. Michele Bachmann, who says she won’t answer any questions on her form beyond number of people in her house. Because, y’know, if you told Uncle Sam how many bathrooms are in your house, ACORN might somehow win.

• Voting Rights: An interesting trio of voting rights bills passed committee in the House last week to little fanfare: most notably, the Universal Right to Vote by Mail Act (which guarantees no-excuse absentee voting in all states, something that’s still restricted in 22 states right now). Also passed were legislation providing grants to help states provide absentee ballot tracking and confirmation systems, and preventing state election officials from serving on federal campaign committees.

Rasmussen Reports (6/16, likely voters, no trendlines):

Arlen Specter (D-inc): 51

Joe Sestak (D): 32

Other: 4

Undecided: 13

(MoE: ±5%)

This is the first time Rasmussen is dipping its toe in the water here, so we don’t have any kind of trendline to work with. But Specter’s 19-point lead is the smallest any pollster has shown to date. (A GQR survey put Specter up 55-34). Given how far off Pennsylvania’s primary is, that doesn’t strike me as a terribly formidable margin, especially since Specter is so much better-known.

Rasmussen’s favorability numbers are a bit surprising, though. Among Dems, Specter clocks in with a 72-26 rating, not too different from a six-week-old R2K poll. However, Sestak’s 57-21 favorables seem way high. By comparison, that same R2K survey (which was also of likely voters) showed 56% having no opinion of the guy, as opposed to just 22% here. A more recent Quinnipiac poll (of RVs) showed even bigger d/ks, as did a Republican survey of LVs.

My guess is that this difference comes down to methodology. All prior polls taken of this race used live interviewers; Rasmussen uses IVR. Obviously the discrepancy is because the DOG COULD HAVE BEEN ANSWERING THE CALL. Alternately, it could just be that lower undecideds across the board, whether for favorables or head-to-heads, are simply a hallmark of the push-button nature of robopolls. You decide.

RaceTracker: PA-Sen

UPDATE: I thought this was pretty great (and hilarious) framing – Joe Sestak branded Arlen Specter a “flight risk” in a fundraising email.

• IL-Sen: AG Lisa Madigan is still under a lot of pressure from inside the Beltway to move over from her preferred race (Governor) to the Senate race instead. Thing is, the pressure seems to be working (and the fact that Pat Quinn remains pretty popular also helps): she says she’s “seriously considering it” and will decide within “four to six weeks” whether to run for gov, senate, or another term as AG.

• KY-Sen: SoS Trey Grayson is still treating Jim Bunning as undecided about running for a third term, despite the crotchety Bunning’s many protestations, Abe Simpson-style, that he ain’t dead yet. While saying that he has “no plans to run against him right now,” Grayson says he’d have a better answer to the question “after next month, when Bunning makes a decision….” Still, he says “I don’t suspect that (having to run against Bunning) would be a problem,” if Bunning stays in the GOP primary. The remarks were made at a poorly-attended (as in less than 50) Grayson fundraiser in Corbin.

• MO-Sen: Rep. Roy Blunt can’t catch a break. No sooner than professor Tom Schweich bailed out and former Treasurer Sarah Steelman’s message discipline came completely unglued, along comes yet another likely primary challenger: state Senator Chuck Purgason, who formed an exploratory committee. It sounds like he’ll be going at Blunt from the right (Purgason is known for his “country-western fashion sense and iron-clad fiscal conservatism,” and said we must “stop the ‘changing’ of America”).

• NC-Sen (pdf): Good polling news out of North Carolina, according to PPP: Generic Democrat leads Richard Burr, 41-38. (There’s still the little matter of nailing down a candidate, of course.) Only 29% overall (and 49% of Republicans) think he deserves another term, while 49% say give someone else a chance. Burr’s approval is 34/35, with a 31% “not sure,” which is still crazily high for a sitting senator.

• NH-Sen: Senatorial speculation for the GOP in the Granite State has turned to AG Kelly Ayotte. (AG is an appointed position in New Hampshire; Ayotte was appointed by ex-Gov. Craig Benson, but retained by John Lynch.) Still, everything seems to be on hold until fall, when the younger John Sununu is supposed to make known his senate intentions. Dean at Blue Hampshire observes ex-Rep. Charlie Bass (another possible Senate, or NH-02, candidate) getting a little testy about having to wait for Sununu Jr. to make up his mind (or for Sununu Sr. to make up Jr.’s mind).

• NY-Sen-B: Rep. Carolyn Maloney keeps ratcheting up her attacks on Kirsten Gillibrand, focusing increasingly on character and credibility. She hit Gillibrand’s “evolving” stances and said “She’s, to my knowledge, never passed anything. She spends all her time fund-raising. I spend my time doing things.” Meanwhile, Gillibrand rolled out the endorsements of 52 of the 62 Democratic Party county chairs in New York. That seems huge, but only half the population of New York state is accounted for, as they have yet to endorse in New York, Kings, Queens, Bronx, Richmond, and Suffolk Counties.

• CA-Gov: Rep. John Campbell from CA-48 in Orange County endorsed Insurance Comm. Steve Poizner a few months ago, but he recently dropped that endorsement and then this week endorsed ex-eBay CEO Meg Whitman instead. Campbell’s explanation is that when he first endorsed Poizner, Whitman wasn’t in the race yet and he had never met her. (This Campbell, of course, is not to be confused with ex-Rep. Tom Campbell, who’s the third wheel in the GOP gubernatorial primary.)

• LA-03, LA-Sen: GOP state Rep. Nickie Monica, who has recently met with officials at the NRCC, is telling his contacts that he’s planning on running against Democrat Charlie Melancon. Meanwhile, faced with the prospect of a strong challenge and the looming uncertainties of redistricting, Melancon is still giving a race against GOP Sen. David Vitter a “pretty hard” look, according to a “Democratic insider.” (J)

• NY-23: Republican state Senator Joe Griffo, who’s based outside the district in Rome but whose turf overlaps part of the 23rd, said he won’t run in the special election. For the Dems, veteran Danny Francis (who ran twice against McHugh in the 1990s) said he’ll seek the nomination. Dem state Senator Darrel Aubertine shot down speculation that he’d fielded a call from Barack Obama about the seat, although he did cop to talking to DCCC recruitment guru Steve Israel about it.

• OH-15: ’08 candidate/ex-state Sen. Steve Stivers says that he’ll make up his mind on a rematch against Mary Jo Kilroy by the 4th of July, but Ohio Republicans apparently feel very confident that he’ll jump into the race. (J)

• PA-06, PA-Gov: Rep. Jim Gerlach has set a deadline of “this summer” for deciding whether to jump into the 2010 governor’s race — although he certainly seems to be moving to do so, positioning himself message-wise as the only GOPer who’s dealt with fiscal issues in a legislature. In the meantime, GOP power brokers are getting antsy that Gerlach’s delay in announcing his plans are complicating their efforts to hold this D+4 seat (although GOP state Rep. Curt Schroder is already warming up in the bullpen, having opened an exploratory committee).

• Votes: The war supplemental passed the House 226-202 yesterday, with 32 Democrats and 5 Republicans breaking ranks. The GOPers fall under the ‘moderate’ umbrella: Cao, King, Kirk, Candace Miller, and John McHugh (for whom a ‘no’ vote would be awk-ward, as the incoming Sec. of the Army). The Dems are generally the most liberal few dozen, although with a few eyebrow-raising exceptions (Eric Massa, maybe most notably): Baldwin, Capuano, Conyers, Doggett, Donna Edwards, Ellison, Farr, Filner, Grayson, Grijalva, Honda, Kaptur, Kucinich, Barbara Lee, Lofgren, Massa, McGovern, Michaud, Payne, Pingree, Polis, Serrano, Shea-Porter, Sherman, Speier, Stark, Tierney, Tsongas, Waters, Watson, Welch, and Woolsey.  

Because there simply haven’t been enough roundups on the front page today…

• OR-Gov: GOP pollmeisters Moore Information give us their take on a trio of hypothetical gubernatorial races, pitting hickory-flavored wingnut Rep. Greg Walden against ex-Gov. John Kitzhaber, Rep. Peter DeFazio and ex-SoS Bill Bradbury. Moore says that Walden has a fighting chance, coming only four points shy of each Democrat. Somehow I suspect that this is an optimistic view of Walden’s chances, but I doubt that he’ll make it a race, anyway.

• PA-Gov: An internal poll commissioned by Dem gubernatorial candidate Tom Knox and conducted by Fairbank-Maslin points to a tight primary race. In a head-to-head match-up with most voters undecided, Allegheny County Executive Dan Onorato noses Knox, a businessman and one-time Philly mayoral candidate, by a 22-21 margin. When Lehigh County Executive Don Cunningham and Auditor General Jack Wagner’s names were added to the equation, Knox and Onorato came out tied at 14%, with 13% going to Wagner and Cunningham claiming 7%. However, Onorato has a lot of room for growth, as he’s currently getting pasted 42-6 margin in favor of Knox in southeast Pennsylvania due to a name recognition deficit. Of course, the same could be said for Knox in the western reaches of the state.

• VA-Gov: The DGA has plopped down some coin on an Anzalone-Liszt survey of Virginia, and the early nums look pretty good for Creigh Deeds, who’s leading Bob McDonnell by 42-38 — a fairly modest lead, yes, but encouraging when you consider that Tim Kaine was lagging behind Jerry Kilgore in every public poll of the 2005 campaign until October. Deeds is also slightly better-liked than McDonnell at this point, earning a 48-14 favorable rating to Mickey D’s 43-19.

• KS-Sen, KS-Gov: SurveyUSA dips their toes into the GOP primary to replace Sam Brownback in the Senate, and it’s pretty much a dead heat between Original and Extra Crispy Wingnut: 1st CD Rep. Jerry Moran edges 4th CD Rep. Todd Tiahrt by 40-38. Bonus finding: In a hypothetical gubernatorial primary, Brownback defeats Secretary of State Ron Thornburgh by a 58-19 margin. I guess Thornburgh didn’t even need to see this poll before deciding to pull the plug on his candidacy yesterday.

• WI-Sen: Just how badly Wisconsin Gov. Jim Doyle should be worrying about his chances of survival next year is up for debate, but Russ Feingold looks like he’ll be okay. Public Policy Polling’s latest expedition in the Badger state finds that Feingold would beat GOP Rep. Paul Ryan by a 51-39 margin.

• NYC-Mayor: Quinnipiac’s latest poll of this most low-energy of races finds more good news for Mayor Bloomsberry: Hizzoner leads Democratic Comptroller William Thompson by a 54-32 margin, up from 49-35 in March.

So, with the caveat that I don’t really believe that neutral redistricting is possible, I’ve redistricted my own state of Pennsylvania as I think it might appear if the legislature deadlocks and a Federal district court has to appoint a special master to draw the lines. There are 18k “missing” people in this map, which I assume is a software bug in Dave’s app. Anyway, without further ado. . .

Delaware Valley:

Philly:

Eastern PA:

Central PA:

Western PA:

Pittsburgh:

Tonight Senator John Ensign (R-NV) will announce he has had an extramarital affair (http://voices.washingtonpost.com/thefix/eye-on-2012/ensign-to-acknowledge-extramar.html?hpid=topnews).  While many of the details have yet to be revealed, Ensign was a rising star in the GOP, having the unenviable task of leading the NRSC in the 2008 cycle.  He even recently spoke in Iowa, stoking chatter that he may be considering a 2012 Presidential run.  So this can’t be considered a minor blip on the radar for the Republicans, as it puts an embarassing scandal in front of them right as they’re trying to mount a united opposition to Obama’s agenda.

Moreover, in 2007, Ensign was one of the first Senators to call for Larry Craig’s resignation over his foot-tapping affair in a Minneapolis airport bathroom, calling such behavior “disgraceful.”  While it is unlikely that he will step down as a result of this (even though he, unlike Craig, was actually caught having an affair) it will likely kill any hopes he had of a 2012 bid for President.  It may also damage the GOP as well, as he was (to date) the only Western, or in truth non-Southern GOPer, to consider mounting a serious bid (some may argue Palin is also a Westerner but I’d put her in a whole other category).  Geographically, it only further limits the base the GOP can draw from when challenging Obama. The West was one of the few areas they likely could have mounted a serious challenge to the President’s electoral chances.

This could also impact his 2012 re-election chances.  Nevada is no Louisiana, and voters there aren’t so partisanly Republican as to automatically forgive Ensign for his actions (although, this is the state that’s home to Sin City so maybe folks there won’t care).  As a Democrat, I only laugh again at a GOP’er who couldn’t keep his pants on, but it seems this has been a trend for both sides (Edwards, anyone?)

Seriously, what the hell possess guys who have a chance at becoming the most powerful elected leader in the world to throw it away over something so trivial?  Any thoughts on any of this?  I’m especially interested to see what our Nevadans think.

Creigh Deeds’s landslide in the Virginia Gubernatorial Primary on June 9th was shocking to pundits like me. This race was supposed to be a three way nail biter fought by Terry McAuliffe’s money and his big name supporters; Brian Moran who had Northern Virginia roots and Creigh Deeds carrying rural Virginia. Instead, Deeds won everywhere except in a few Hampton Roads independent cities and Alexandria. What happened in this race echoes the 1988 Democratic presidential primary: All the major candidates attacked Rep. Richard Gephardt (D, MO) leaving room for Dukakis to win. Moran attacked McAuliffe and McAuliffe attacked Moran allowing Creigh Deeds to sneak into Northern Virginia and win. Deeds must now beat Republican Bob McDonnell, the conservative Attorney General of Virginia.  It will be a rematch because in 2005, Deeds lost to McDonnell by 360 votes for Attorney General in 2005 out of the 1.9 million cast. Yes, the 2005 election looks like Florida in 2000 but it was more gracious than that. I will explain how Deeds can develop a winning strategy in light of his strengths and weaknesses.

Creigh Deeds was the most Conservative Democrat running in the Gubernatorial Primary. Even though he is pro-choice, he is also pro-gun and the NRA endorsed him in 2005. He will probably get it again. The NRA endorsement helped him in rural areas but not in Northern Virginia. Still, it would be hard to believe that a pro gun control voter in Northern Virginia would support the very conservative McDonnell over Deeds. Since Tim Kaine, the Democratic Governor of Virginia won big in Northern Virginia in 2005, the Democratic voters came out in big numbers and Deeds will need that type of turn out once again. I believe he will do that because of backlash to McDonnell’s record and because of the type of showing Deeds showed in the primary. . He also ran strong in rural areas especially in his home House of Delegates district. Against McDonnell, he won Alleghany County in his home district with 75% of the vote. Even McCain won that county against Obama. Deeds’s district is located near the Shenandoah Valley and borders West Virginia. To win rural areas, Deeds must portray himself as a candidate who stands for rural issues as he showed in the primary. Another trouble spot for Deeds is the Hampton Roads area. . Bob McDonnell, a Virginia Beach resident won it by 15 points when John McCain barely won it against Obama. The only congressional district Deeds lost in the primary was an African American majority district that contained some Hampton Roads cities. Since the Hampton Roads area provided McDonnell with the margin he needed to become Attorney General. Hampton Roads has a large military population. Deeds can pull the race close if he can tout his Veterans record. Deeds wants tax relief for disabled Veterans and is a fan of Virginia’s Wounded Warrior Program. If he fails to make inroads there, he could try to win Loudon and Prince William Counties. They surround Fairfax County and since 2001, they almost always vote for the winner.  If Deeds can paint McDonnell as an extreme religious right candidate, Deeds can win in Northern Virginia. Deeds has one problem in Northern Virginia: He is tough on illegal immigration which would help in Conservative areas but would hurt him among Hispanic voters in Northern Virginia. If Deeds can hold the voters he won in 2005, he can win because more D.C Liberals have moved into Virginia since 2005, making it easier for Deeds to win to pick up the additional votes. A recent state wide poll showed Deeds leading by six points. Was this just a post primary bounce or a harbinger for this election?

Bob McDonnell is a candidate with contrasts. Unlike Deeds, McDonnell is not a Virginia native. Even though Deeds will try hard to win Hampton Roads, McDonnell had military service while Deeds did not. Also, McDonnell’s home area is home to many evangelicals and McDonnell has close ties to Pat Robertson and that voting block. Those ties probably helped McDonnell enough in rural areas to enable him win against Deeds in 2005. Yet, those ties will hurt McDonnell in Northern Virginia where the population is generally averse to the Southern Virginia Religious Conservatives. Northern Virginia voted against then Sen. George Allen in 2006, against Jerry Kilgore who was the Republican Gubernatorial nominee in 2005. McDonnell needs to keep those ties to Pat Robertson to compete for votes in rural areas but also needs to shed them to compete in Northern Virginia. If Deeds wants to win, he needs to run ads in Northern Virginia highlighting McDonnell’s ties to Pat Robertson.

These are the main strengths, strategies and weaknesses of each candidate. Here is the winning strategy for Deeds: rack up large margins in Northern Virginia by campaigning there and running ads portraying Bob McDonnell as a religious Conservative with ties to Pat Robertson. Try to at least reduce the margins in Hampton Roads by spending time there and running ads promoting Deeds’s record on Veterans. In the rural areas, Deeds needs to run ads referring to him as “just another hardworking Virginian” and highlight his record on guns. If the NRA endorses him, he needs to run ads with their endorsement. Even though Loudon and Prince William Counties are considered the important key, I believe the key area is rural Virginia. The real bellwether county appears to be suburban Henrico County near Richmond. It has many Conservatives and African Americans. So on election night, watch not only Loudon and Prince William Counties but also Henrico County. Deeds should win the bellwether counties if he sticks to his strategy. The most important tactic he must use is just to well….be himself. He has a lovely family and a great personality. If Virginians can see that combined with his positions and record compared to McDonnell’s, they will probably vote for him.  

• MO-Sen: In an e-mail to local TV affiliate KY3, former Treasurer Sarah Steelman seems to be walking back her comments to the Hill yesterday, not wanting to appear to shut the door on a GOP primary bid against Rep. Roy Blunt. She says she’s still “very seriously considering” it.

• PA-Sen: Here’s an interesting development: a state legislator in Pennsylvania has introduced a bill to switch Pennyslvania from closed to open primaries. This seems like a nakedly pro-Specter bill: it would have helped him survive his GOP primary against Pat Toomey, and now it would have the opposite effect, helping him survive a Democratic primary against Joe Sestak by opening the door to independents and moderate Republicans.

• AK-AL: Unless the indictment fairy has a present for him soon, Rep. Don Young looks to have a much easier go of it in 2010 than last cycle. Not only is his Dem challenger ex-state House minority leader Ethan Berkowitz likely to run for governor instead, but now it sounds like his primary opponents, Lt. Gov. Sean Parnell and ex-state Rep. Gabrielle LeDoux, aren’t going to run again either. Unlike last time, Parnell would need to give up his LG job to run, and he may instead be running for Governor if Sarah Palin declines to run again. Businessman Andrew Halcro, who ran for Governor as an independent in 2006, also sounds likely to run for Governor rather than challenge Young. State Senator Hollis French, who sounded like a likely Governor candidate for the Dems until Berkowitz showed up, may be the Dems’ best bet.

• AL-07: The field to replace Artur Davis got bigger, as Jefferson Co. Councilor Shelia Smoot officially launched her campaign. She joins lawyer Terri Sewell, state Rep. Earl Hilliard Jr., and former Selma mayor James Perkins in the primary (which is the only real race in this D+18 district).

• CA-11: Contra Costa County Sheriff Warren Rupf turned down the chance to run as a Republican in the upcoming CA-10 special election, but that seemed to ignite his interest, as now he’s considering running in 2010 in next-door CA-11 against sophomore Rep. Jerry McNerney, at R+1 a more plausible race than the D+11 CA-10.

• FL-08: Republican state Representative Steve Precourt is considering making the race against Rep. Alan Grayson in this R+2 Orlando-area seat. His strongest words seemed to be reserved for likely primary opponent Orange County Mayor Rich Crotty, who Precourt doesn’t see as a “fresh face” or viable, although Precourt said he’d stand down if former state Sen. Daniel Webster got in.

• ID-01: The Republican field in ID-01 is filling up, as state House majority leader Ken Roberts announced he’s in. He’ll have to get past veteran and McCain ally Vaughn Ward before facing off against Rep. Walt Minnick, though. Ex-Rep. Bill Sali occasionally makes threatening noises about a rematch, but he hasn’t said anything definite.

• NH-02: Former state Rep. Bob Giuda (not to be confused with Frank Guinta, running in NH-01) is the first GOPer to launch an exploratory committee in the race to fill Rep. Paul Hodes’ open seat. He may still be joined by the 2008 candidate, Jennifer Horn, and, more remotely, a return by ex-Rep. Charlie Bass.

• NY-23: Douglas Hoffman, the head of a local accounting firm, has thrown his hat into the GOP nomination contest for the special election to replace Rep. John McHugh. Republicans also announced their schedule for picking a nominee, involving four regional meetings around the districts where candidates would speak to the Republican county committee members over a two- to four-week period once there’s an official vacancy.

• PA-03: Freshman Rep. Kathy Dahlkemper, representing the swingy R+3 district based in Erie (won by John McCain by 62 votes), has managed to secure a hot ticket in view of its self-imposed membership cap: she joined the Blue Dog Coalition.

• Redistricting: A petition drive is underway in Florida to get an initiative on the ballot for 2010 that, while not creating an independent redistricting campaign, would at least place some non-partisan limitations on the creation of House and legislative districts. Most of the money behind the petition drive is coming from Democrats, but two prominent Democrats aren’t on board with the drive: Reps. Alcee Hastings and Corrine Brown, both of whom stand to inherit more difficult districts if they’re made less convoluted.