Swing State Project

• AR-Sen: The leader of Arkansas teabaggers’ movement, Tom Cox, has decided that he’ll run for the GOP nomination for Senate to run against Blanche Lincoln. Cox is the owner of Aloha Pontoon Boats, where he had a little trouble last year with a federal raid turned up 13 illegal immigrants working for him… which doesn’t sound like it’ll play well with his ideal base voters. In the primary, he’ll face off against an anti-semitic state senator and some Huckabee buddy who owns a food safety company.

• FL-Sen: The movement conservatives continue to square off against the establishment in the GOP Florida Senate primary. Jim DeMint, probably the most conservative senator by most metrics and with a sizable grass roots following, just endorsed Marco Rubio.

• IL-Sen: Rep. Mark Kirk still refuses to say what exactly he’s doing, but he promises that he’s raising money “for a big campaign.” (His last few House races have been big-money affairs, so who knows what that means?)

• KS-Sen: Dems seem to be moving closer to actually having a candidate in the Kansas Senate race: former newspaper editor Charles Schollenberger, who formed an exploratory committee.

• KY-Sen: State Senate President David Williams had publicly contemplated getting into the GOP primary against Jim Bunning, even meeting with the NRSC, but he said yesterday that he won’t run. He refused to officially endorse anybody, but said he was most excited about philanthropist and former ambassador Cathy Bailey among the possible candidates.

• NY-Sen-B: Rep. Carolyn Maloney has set a July 4th deadline for deciding whether or not to run in the Senate primary. Meanwhile, Kirsten Gillibrand picked up two endorsement from groups with a lot of on-the-ground firepower: New York State United Teachers and (cue the Phase 5 wingnut freakout) ACORN. Rep. Peter King, on the GOP side, set his own deadline, saying he’ll decide whether or not to run by Labor Day. Also today is word that Barack Obama had King in his sights as he cut a swath through Northeast Republicans by offering him a job — in his case, ambassador to Ireland, which King declined.

• PA-Sen: Looks like that Act of God never happened, because Rep. Joe Sestak is actively staffing up for a Senate primary challenge to Arlen Specter.

• WV-Sen: With 91-year-old Robert Byrd having been in the hospital for nearly a month now and not planning an immediate return to the Senate, there have been some behind-the-scenes discussions of what happens if he can’t return to office. West Virginia state Democratic party chair Nick Casey is seen as the consensus choice to serve as placeholder until the 2010 election, if need be.

• AZ-Gov: This can’t be helping Jan Brewer (the Republican SoS who ascended to the governor’s mansion to replace Janet Napolitano) as she considers whether or not to run for a full term: she’s in a standoff with her Republican-controlled legislature over the budget, almost single-handedly leaving the state on track to a government shutdown.

• FL-Gov: David Hill, a top GOP pollster in Florida, is leery about the chances for AG Bill McCollum (who’s already lost statewide twice, and now is trying to transparently reboot himself as a Charlie Crist-style moderate) in the gubernatorial election. He says he’s been actively encouraging state Senator Paula Dockery to follow through on jumping into the primary.

• KS-Gov: Sen. Sam Brownback got some good news: SoS Ron Thornburgh decided to get out of the GOP primary, leaving Brownback a clear path. (Not that Thornburgh was going to pose much of a threat, which is why he got out.) And finally a Democratic state Senator, Chris Steineger, seems to be getting into the race for Team Blue — although he sounds like a bit of a loose cannon, having pissed off most of the state party establishment at various points.

• MI-Gov: George Perles, the 75-year-old former football coach at Michigan State and currently an MSU trustee (which is a statewide elected position) announced that he’s running for the Democratic nomination. He joins Lt. Gov. John Cherry in the field, who seems to have most of the establishment backing so far.

• MN-Gov: Contrary to earlier reports, Rep. Michele Bachmann hasn’t quite ruled out a bid for Governor in 2010, what with Tim Pawlenty stepping down. She expresses her ambivalence with some nice Harlequin romance novel phrasing: “If my heart moved in the other direction and I had the tug, I’d do it. I wouldn’t be afraid to run for office. I just don’t feel the tug.”

• NV-Gov: Another GOPer is sniffing out the governor’s race (kind of a no-brainer, given the world of shit Jim Gibbons is in): Reno mayor Bob Cashell, who was last seen endorsing Harry Reid a few weeks ago. Of course, there’s the risk that if too many credible GOP challengers get in, Gibbons has a better shot at surviving the primary via a badly split vote… although facing a wounded Gibbons in the general would probably be the best scenario for the Dems.

Yesterday I took a look at our efforts to recruit House candidates for 2010. This time it is the Republicans.

Below the fold for all the details (and bring some eyewash) and hey go check out the shiny new 2010 Race Tracker Wiki over at Open Congress for all your House, Senate and Gubernatorial needs.

(Cross posted at Daily Kos, MyDD and Open Left)

As we assumed for us so should we assume for them; so all 178 Republican held districts can be considered filled (although I think we may sneak a win in the NY-23rd Special).

85 Democratic held Districts have confirmed GOP candidates:

AL-02 (Bright) – R+16,

AL-05 (Griffith) – R+12,

AZ-01 (Kirkpatrick) – R+6,

AZ-05 (Mitchell) – R+5,

AZ-07 (Grijalva) – D+6,

AZ-08 (Giffords) – R+4,

AR-01 (Berry) – R+8,

CA-01 (Thompson) – D+13,

CA-08 (Pelosi) – D+35,

CA-10 (VACANT) – D+11,

CA-11 (McNerney) – R+1,

CA-30 (Waxman) – D+18,

CA-32 (Chu) – D+15,

CA-47 (Sanchez) – D+4,

CA-53 (Davis) – D+14,

CO-03 (Salazar) – R+5,

CO-04 (Markey) – R+6,

CO-07 (Perlmutter) – D+4,

CT-02 (Courtney) – D+6,

CT-03 (DeLauro) – D+9,

CT-05 (Murphy) – D+2,

FL-02 (Boyd) – R+6,

FL-03 (Brown) – D+18,

FL-08 (Grayson) – R+2,

FL-11 (Castor) – D+11,

FL-17 (Meek OPEN) – D+34,

FL-19 (Wexler) – D+15,

FL-20 (Wasserman Schulz) – D+13,

FL-21 (Klein) – D+1,

FL-23 (Hastings) – D+28,

FL-24 (Kosmas) – R+4,

GA-12 (Barrow) – D+1,

HI-01 (Abercrombie OPEN) – D+11,

ID-01 (Minnick) – R+18,

IL-11 (Halvorson) – R+1,

IL-14 (Foster) – R+1,

IL-17 (Hare) – D+3,

IN-08 (Ellsworth) – R+8,

IN-09 (Hill) – R+6,

IA-02 (Loebsack) – D+1,

ME-02 (Michaud) – D+3,

MD-01 (Kratovil) – R+13,

MD-03 (Sarbanes) – D+6,

MD-08 (Van Hollen Jr) – D+21,

MA-02 (Neal) – D+9,

MA-04 (Frank) – D+14,

MA-05 (Tsongas) – D+8,

MI-09 (Peters) – D+2,

MI-12 (Levin) – D+12,

MN-04 (McCollum) – D+13,

NH-01 (Shea Porter) – D+0,

NH-02 (Hodes OPEN) – D+3,

NJ-12 (Holt) – D+5,

NY-01 (Bishop) – D+0,

NY-19 (Hall) – R+3,

NY-22 (Hinchey) – D+6,

NY-25 (Maffei) – D+3,

NC-04 (Price) – D+8,

NC-07 (McIntyre) – R+5,

OH-01 (Driehaus) – D+1,

OH-15 (Kilroy) – D+1,

OH-18 (Space) – R+7,

OK-02 (Boren) – R+14,

OR-04 (DeFazio) – D+2,

PA-03 (Dahlkemper) – R+3,

PA-12 (Murtha) – R+1,

RI-01 (Kennedy) – D+13,

RI-02 (Langevin) – D+9,

TN-04 (Davis) – R+13,

TN-06 (Gordon) – R+13,

TN-08 (Tanner) – R+6,

TX-16 (Reyes) – D+10,

TX-17 (Edwards) – R+20,

TX-18 (Jackson Lee) – D+24,

TX-29 (Green) – D+8,

VA-02 (Nye) – R+5,

VA-05 (Perriello) – R+5,

WA-03 (Baird) – D+0,

WA-06 (Dicks) – D+5,

WA-09 (Smith) – D+5,

WV-01 (Mollohan) – R+9,

WV-03 (Rahall) – R+6,

WI-04 (Moore) – D+22,

WI-07 (Obey) – D+3,

WI-08 (Kagen) – R+2,

15 Democratic held Districts have GOP candidates that are considering a run:

AR-02 (Snyder) – R+5,

CA-33 (Watson) – D+35,

CT-04 (Himes) – D+5,

IA-03 (Boswell) – D+1,

MS-01 (Childers) – R+14,

NV-03 (Titus) – D+2,

NJ-03 (Adler) – R+1,

NM-01 (Heinrich) – D+5,

NM-02 (Teague) – R+6,

NY-24 (Arcuri) – R+2,

NC-08 (Kissell) – R+2,

NC-11 (Shuler) – R+6,

PA-10 (Carney) – R+8,

PA-11 (Kanjorski) – D+4,

PA-17 (Holden) – R+6,

5 Democratic held Districts have rumoured GOP Party candidates:

KS-03 (Moore) – R+3,

LA-03 (Melancon) – R+12,

NY-29 (Massa) – R+5,

PA-04 (Altmire) – R+6,

PA-07 (Sestak) – D+3,

152 Democratic held Districts don’t have any GOP candidates:

AL-07 (Davis OPEN) – D+18,

AZ-04 (Pastor) – D+13,

AR-04 (Ross) – R+7,

CA-05 (Matsui) – D+15,

CA-06 (Woolsey) – D+23,

CA-07 (Miller) – D+19,

CA-09 (Lee) – D+37,

CA-12 (Speier) – D+23,

CA-13 (Stark) – D+22,

CA-14 (Eshoo) – D+21,

CA-15 (Honda) – D+15,

CA-16 (Lofgren) – D+16,

CA-17 (Farr) – D+19,

CA-18 (Cardoza) – D+4,

CA-20 (Costa) – D+5,

CA-23 (Capps) – D+12,

CA-27 (Sherman) – D+13,

CA-28 (Berman) – D+23,

CA-29 (Schiff) – D+14,

CA-31 (Becerra) – D+29,

CA-34 (Roybal-Allard) – D+22,

CA-35 (Waters) – D+31,

CA-36 (Harman) – D+12,

CA-37 (Richardson) – D+26,

CA-38 (Napolitano) – D+18,

CA-39 (Sanchez) – D+12,

CA-43 (Baca) – D+13,

CA-51 (Filner) – D+8,

CO-01 (DeGette) – D+21,

CO-02 (Polis) – D+11,

CT-01 (Larson) – D+13,

GA-02 (Bishop) – D+1,

GA-04 (Johnson) – D+24,

GA-05 (Lewis) – D+26,

GA-08 (Marshall) – R+10,

GA-13 (Scott) – D+15,

HI-02 (Hirono) – D+14,

IL-01 (Rush) – D+34,

IL-02 (Jackson Jr) – D+36,

IL-03 (Lipinski) – D+11,

IL-04 (Gutierrez) – D+32,

IL-05 (Quigley) – D+19,

IL-07 (Davis) – D+35,

IL-08 (Bean) – R+1,

IL-09 (Schakowsky) – D+20,

IL-12 (Costello) – D+3,

IN-01 (Visclosky) – D+8,

IN-02 (Donnelly) – R+2,

IN-07 (Carson) – D+14,

IA-01 (Braley) – D+5,

KY-03 (Yarmuth) – D+2,

KY-06 (Chandler) – R+9,

ME-01 (Pingree) – D+8,

MD-02 (Ruppersberger) – D+7,

MD-04 (Edwards) – D+31,

MD-05 (Hoyer) – D+11,

MD-07 (Cummings) – D+25,

MA-01 (Olger) – D+14,

MA-03 (McGovern) – D+9,

MA-06 (Tierney) – D+7,

MA-07 (Markey) – D+15,

MA-08 (Capuano) – D+32,

MA-09 (Lynch) – D+11,

MA-10 (Delahunt) – D+5,

MI-01 (Stupak) – R+3,

MI-05 (Kildee) – D+11,

MI-07 (Schauer) – R+2,

MI-13 (Kilpatrick) – D+31,

MI-14 (Conyers) – D+34,

MI-15 (Dingell) – D+13,

MN-01 (Walz) – R+1,

MN-05 (Ellison) – D+23,

MN-07 (Peterson) – R+5,

MN-08 (Oberstar) – D+3,

MS-02 (Thompson) – D+12,

MS-04 (Taylor) – R+20,

MO-01 (Clay) – D+27,

MO-03 (Carnahan) – D+7,

MO-04 (Skelton) – R+14,

MO-05 (Cleaver) – D+10,

NV-01 (Berkley) – D+10,

NJ-01 (Andrews) – D+12,

NJ-06 (Pallone) – D+8,

NJ-08 (Pascrell) – D+10,

NJ-09 (Rothman) – D+9,

NJ-10 (Payne) – D+33,

NJ-13 (Sires) – D+21,

NM-03 (Lujan) – D+7,

NY-02 (Israel) – D+4,

NY-04 (McCarthy) – D+6,

NY-05 (Ackerman) – D+12,

NY-06 (Meeks) – D+36,

NY-07 (Crowley) – D+26,

NY-08 (Nadler) – D+22,

NY-09 (Weiner) – D+5,

NY-10 (Towns) – D+38,

NY-11 (Clarke) – D+38,

NY-12 (Velazquez) – D+33,

NY-13 (McMahon) – R+4,

NY-14 (Maloney) – D+26,

NY-15 (Rangel) – D+41,

NY-16 (Serrano) – D+41,

NY-17 (Engel) – D+18,

NY-18 (Lowey) – D+9,

NY-20 (Murphy) – R+2,

NY-21 (Tonko) – D+6,

NY-27 (Higgins) – D+4,

NY-28 (Slaughter) – D+15,

NC-01 (Butterfield) – D+9,

NC-02 (Etheridge) – R+2,

NC-12 (Watt) – D+16,

NC-13 (Miller) – D+5,

ND-AL (Pomeroy) – R+10,

OH-06 (Wilson) – R+2,

OH-09 (Kaptor) – D+10,

OH-10 (Kucinich) – D+8,

OH-11 (Fudge) – D+32,

OH-13 (Sutton) – D+5,

OH-16 (Boccieri) – R+4,

OH-17 (Ryan OPEN) – D+12,

OR-01 (Wu) – D+8,

OR-03 (Blumenauer) – D+19,

OR-05 (Schrader) – D+1,

PA-01 (Brady) – D+35,

PA-02 (Fattah) – D+38,

PA-08 (Murphy) – D+2,

PA-13 (Schwartz) – D+7,

PA-14 (Doyle) – D+19,

SC-05 (Spratt) – R+7,

SC-06 (Clyburn) – D+12,

SD-AL (Herseth Sandlin) – R+9,

TN-05 (Cooper) – D+3,

TN-09 (Cohen) – D+23,

TX-09 (Green) – D+22,

TX-15 (Hinojosa) – D+3,

TX-20 (Gonzalez) – D+8,

TX-23 (Rodriguez) – R+4,

TX-25 (Doggett) – D+6,

TX-27 (Ortiz) – R+2,

TX-28 (Cuellar) – R+0,

TX-30 (Johnson) – D+27,

UT-02 (Matheson) – R+15,

VT-AL (Welch) – D+13,

VA-03 (Scott) – D+20,

VA-08 (Moran) – D+16,

VA-09 (Boucher) – R+11,

VA-11 (Connolly) – D+2,

WA-01 (Inslee) – D+9,

WA-02 (Larsen) – D+3,

WA-07 (McDermott) – D+31,

WI-02 (Baldwin) – D+15,

WI-03 (Kind) – D+4,

So the Republicans have confirmed candidates in 263 districts. Take a look at some of their challengers websites though and your eyeballs will bleed. They also have 15 districts with candidates that are considering a run and 5 districts with rumoured candidates.

Whilst they are behind us numerically they have more in ours than we have in theirs.

They also have some huge gaps in California and New York.

They already have a full House slate in Alaska, Delaware, Florida, Montana, Nebraska, New Hampshire, Oklahoma, Rhode Island, West Virginia and Wyoming (we have 15 such states).

They also have but one slot to fill in Alabama, Arizona, Connecticut, Kansas, Louisiana, Maine,  North Dakota, South Dakota, Utah and Vermont (we have 7 such states).

Expect candidates to bob up with increasing frequency from here on in.

Any news, gossip or thoughts in the comments please.

More updates soon.

In a “now for something completely different” moment, I decided to redistrict a state in such away where all districts would be maximally competitive.  Indiana is ideal for this since it was extremely close in the last election and does not have large enough minority populations to invoke the VRA.

Without further ado:

I used the town totals from the back of this data set to split Lake and LaPorte counties. For the other split counties, notably Marion and Hamilton, I just came up with reasonable numbers for what I wanted the split to be, figuring it would be relatively easy to adjust the lines to make it a reality.

Estimates of margins of victory and political analysis

District 1 (Blue):  Obama by 3500.  Hammond and Terre Haute are balanced against some conservative Indianapolis suburbs. Open seat.

District 2 (Green): Obama by 4900. Loses Michigan City and gain some Conservative territory to the East, but retains its South Bend base assuring Donnelly’s relatively easy reelection.

District 3 (Purple): McCain by 700, the only one he wins. This Fort Wayne based district now gains some Democratic turf in Muncie and Anderson. Souder had challenging races in his old district, so would presumably draw even stronger challenges here.

District 4 (Red): Obama by 5800. Gary and Lake County weigh against a broad swath of conservative turf, setting up a battle royale of Visclosky verses Buyer.  Theoretically the most Democratic district, but the estimates are a bit sketchy for some of the splits.

District 5 (Gold): Obama 1400. Some Democratic turf near the lake and Tippecanoe County weigh against the conservative interior, most notably deep red Kosciuskco.  Open seat.

District 6 (Turquoise): Obama by 3300. Some of the more Democratic parts of Marion weigh against Republican rural areas and suburbs.  Carson will need to convince enough of those folks that it’s okay to send a Muslim to congress that Indianapolis can carry the day.

District 7 (Gray): Obama by 4200.  A good urban suburban mix.  Burton will need to convince those urban voters that his golf habit won’t prevent him from representing them.

District 8 (Lavender): Obama by 3400.  This district is slight more Democratic than the old Eighth, since it picks up Monroe county. Blue Dog Ellsworth should have no trouble.

District 9 (Cyan): Obama by 2600.  I would think that moderate Democrat Hill would have the advantage over the ultra conservative Pence, who may prefer to run in the Sixth, but Hill has never won by particularly large margins, so who knows.

When Ellen Tauscher announced she was headed for the State Department it seemed there would be no shortage of Democrats running to replace her in this safe district, including California’s Lt. Gov, John Garamendi, who ducked out of the race for governor when he got no traction and decided not to contest Republican held CA-03.  Recently though, CNN’s Campbell Brown (bleck!) interviewed a candidate I hadn’t heard anything about until now, and after watching the clip I walked away impressed.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v…

Anthony Woods is impressive for many reasons.  Raised by a single mother, he went on to serve his country in two tours in Iraq, receive an education at Harvard and a Master’s degree from the Kennedy School of Government.  He was a co-recipient of the Robert F. Kennedy Public Service Award and organized missions to help rebuild hurricane-ravaged New Orleans.  Hell, he spent a summer bicycling across the country to raise money for Habitat for Humanity.  But all that wasn’t good enough for his government.  Woods wanted to serve his country on a third tour of Iraq, but was discharged simply because he is gay.

Woods comes off as a very polished speaker, and he clearly knows from his interview with Brown how to avoid putting his foot in his mouth.  What’s more, the guy is well rounded, having worked as an economic policy advisor, giving him credibility on what is probably always the number one issue in a campaign.  Personally though, I’m excited about the possibility of sending a victim of DADT to Congress to give the LGBT community a voice and a face there for this unjust policy that Obama has, frankly, failed us on.  What’s more, Woods would be the first black-LGBT person elected to Congress and could potentially work to build bridges and initiate dialogue between two communities that don’t always see eye to eye.

The iceing on the cake???  Woods is a self-described progressive Democrat.  He’s a clear underdog in this race with plenty of big names and established politicians, but Woods has a lot of personal qualities that hint at the possibility of an upset.  Clearly, he’s someone we need to watch.

http://www.anthonywoodsforcong…

Public Policy Polling (6/9-10, registered voters):

Jim Doyle (D-inc): 40

Scott Walker (R): 48

Undecided: 12

Jim Doyle (D-inc): 41

Mark Neumann (R): 42

Undecided: 17

(MoE: ±4.1%)

No diggity doubt about it: these are the worst poll numbers we’ve seen for two-term Dem Gov. Jim Doyle so far this cycle. An early March poll from the Republican firm POS and a Research 2000 poll released last week both had Doyle in the high 40s and ahead of his GOP foes. SSP friend and PPP guru Tom Jensen pops open the hoods of both his poll and R2K’s to tease out the source of disagreement between the two polls:

Where they go in different directions is among Republicans and independents. We find virtually no Republicans- just 6%- approving of the job Doyle is doing while they find 23% looking on him favorably. And while they find only 51% of independents with an unfavorable opinion of him, we find 69% in disapproval of his job performance.

Without a great deal of public polling available from Wisconsin, it’s difficult to say who’s right and who needs an oil change. However, it’s worth noting, as Tom does, that SUSA’s latest polling of the state lines up much more closely to PPP’s findings than it does to R2K’s latest offering.

RaceTracker: WI-Gov

Suck:

Rep. Roy Blunt’s path to the Republican nomination in Missouri’s Senate race got clearer last week, and it could become crystal-clear soon.

Former state Treasurer Sarah Steelman appears increasingly less likely to run against Blunt, and she acknowledged Monday that she is looking at a possible campaign for Blunt’s open House seat as an alternative.

Steelman said shortly after Sen. Kit Bond’s (R-Mo.) retirement announcement in January that she was leaning toward entering the Senate race, and for a while, it was a foregone conclusion.

But after unleashing a string of Blunt criticisms and opening an exploratory committee in April, she has grown quieter and begun evaluating other options. …

“I am always willing to fight for what I believe in, but I would certainly prefer to do it without further destruction to our party,” Steelman said, adding: “I want to find a positive avenue to move our party forward.”

I was really rooting for some hot wingnut-on-wingnut action here, but alas. The fact that Steelman herself is talking to The Hill about this suggests it’s just about over.

RaceTracker: MO-Sen

(Hat tip: the incomparable Political Wire)

One thing we do a lot of at SSP is speculate, and a favorite topic of speculation is what House districts seem like the most vulnerable ones for each party, and most likely to be pickups. We can go one better than mere speculation, today, though, as the DCCC and NRCC disclosed their own top 2010 targets for a recent piece with National Journal‘s CongressDaily. In each case, they gave a top tier, and then added some other next-best opportunities.

For the Democrats, according to DCCC exec director Jon Vogel:

And for the GOP, according to NRCC political director Brian Walsh:

Interesting choices for the Dems, suggesting that they’re confident about having open seats in DE-AL and PA-06, and maybe even FL-10 (but maybe they aren’t confident about Mark Kirk vacating IL-10?). MI-11 is a solid pick based on last year’s performance (both at the presidential level and by McCotter), but they’ll need to step up their candidate recruitment there. For the GOP, their picks seem about right; the biggest surprise, though, may be that they’re touting challenges to the Virginia freshmen above a challenge to Bobby Bright, who more than anyone else seems to face the problem of a drop in African-American turnout in his district in an off-year election.

• PA-Sen: Ex-Rep. Pat Toomey says that he raised $1 million in 60 days toward his Senate run, with more than 11,000 donors. It’s still a drop in the bucket compared with the bankrolls of Arlen Specter and Joe Sestak, but it ought to help dissuade anyone else from jumping into the GOP primary. Another tidbit that ought to discourage any Republican line-crashers: $5,000 of that money came from John Cornyn‘s PAC, suggesting that he’s done looking for another candidate and is bringing establishment power to bear behind Toomey.

• FL-Sen: It’s not much of a surprise, considering they’re close neighbors, but Rep. Kendrick Meek nailed down the endorsements of two key members of Florida’s House delegation — Debbie Wasserman Schultz and Ron Klein — which will come in handy if he does wind up facing off against Corrine Brown in the primary.

• LA-Sen: Democratic New Orleans city councilor Arnie Fielkow decided, after some speculation, not to wade into the Louisiana Senate race. More plausible would be a challenge to Rep. Anh Cao in LA-02, as Fielkow is well-known in NoLa but has no statewide presence, but Fielkow also declined that, leading to speculation he may be eyeing the next mayor’s race instead.

• GA-Gov:  With an eye on Roy Barnes, Ed Kilgore takes aim at the claim that Georgia governors have a long track record of failure when it comes to comebacks. It turns out that past probably isn’t prologue. (D)

• TX-Gov: We’re reluctant to ascribe a whole lotta meaning to the phrasing of this particular letter, but Kay Bailey Hutchison seems to be moving pretty explicitly toward making official her run for Governor. Glenn Thrush points to a letter sent to potential donors saying “I am running for Governor.”

• AZ-05: Is Congress ready for its first gamer (or at least its first out-of-the-closet gamer)? Jim Ward, the former president of video game maker LucasArts, announced that he’ll be running for the GOP nomination to go up against Rep. Harry Mitchell. Ward brings a lot of wealth to the table, but he’ll have an uphill fight against former Maricopa County Treasurer David Schweikert, who lost the 2008 election to Mitchell by 9 points and is looking for a rematch.

• TX-32: Dems have landed a good candidate in TX-32 to go up against Rep. Pete Sessions: Grieg Raggio, an attorney and husband to Judge Lorraine Raggio. The 32nd, in north Dallas, is still a red district but has seen rapidly declining GOP numbers, both for Sessions and at the presidential level, and is down to R+8.

• NY-AG: Nassau Co. Exec Tom Suozzi published an editorial in the New York Times where he publicly discusses having changed his mind on the gay marriage issue (he’s now for it). With New York one of the few states where gay marriage has become an issue with majority support, Suozzi looks to be repositioning himself for, well, something (probably, as often rumored, Attorney General, but maybe Governor if Andrew Cuomo continues to dither).

• Redistricting: The Hill has an interesting piece about redistricting; while it doesn’t delve into too many specifics, it does shed some light on what districts the GOP is rushing to try to take back before they get strengthened for the Dems (like Bobby Bright’s AL-02), and what districts are unlikely to draw top tier challengers because everyone is willing to sit back and wait for new open districts to pop up in 2012 (like Dina Titus’s NV-03).

• Race Tracker: Benawu is already back doing what he does best: chronicling the Dems’ efforts to field candidates in all 435 districts. Right now, we’re still looking in 124 GOP-held districts (although, of course, it’s still early in the cycle). Check out the RaceTracker 2010 wiki for more.

(This diary is cross-posted on the Daily Kos)

Two months ago, I posted a diary here, “Redistricting Maryland: 8 Democratic Seats”

http://www.swingstateproject.c…

I have since then worked with the map to design a plan which will make it even more likely that eight Democrats can be elected in 2012.  I must admit that the resulting map is quite gerrymandered (though not more so than the existing Maryland map).  I am opposed to highly gerrymandered redistricting in principle.  Even though the Supreme Court has clearly ruled that political gerrymandering (as opposed to gerrymandering where race is the predominant factor) is permissible, I just think that it ultimately lets some politicians decide who their voters are going to be, instead of the other way around.  However, as long as the Republicans continue to do it, there is no reason why Democrats should disarm unilaterally.  

I tried to make the new map reflective of 2010 population estimates, as different parts of Maryland have experienced varying population growth levels.  For example, the population of Baltimore City is expected to decline slightly between the 2000 and 2010 Censuses, while some outer exurban areas of Baltimore and Washington are expected to show increases of 20% or more.  The new map reflects this reality.  The map keeps intact much of the territory of the current seven Democratic representatives, while still creating an additional eighth Democratic seat.

As in my April post, the map below demonstrates that it is very possible to redistrict Maryland in a manner in which eight Democrats can be elected to Congress from the state.  I have refined the map whereby seven Democratic districts (Districts 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7 and 8) voted for Obama by at least a 22.5 point margin.  Districts 4 and 7 remain African-American majority, as is necessary per the VRA.  (Both districts are ensured to elect an African-American Democrat, as 70% or more of the Democratic primary vote in each district is expected to be comprised of African-Americans.)  The proposed District 1 goes from one which McCain won by 18.5 points to one which Obama wins by 6.4 points; if Kratovil makes it through 2010, he will be more than safe in the new MD-1.  The proposed District 6 goes from one which McCain won by 17.5 points to one which Obama wins by 22.6 points.  In the discussion of each district (below the map) I also discuss how these new districts performed in other recent Maryland political races (2004, 2006 and 2008 elections).

Maryland Map:

Central Maryland Map:

Central Maryland Maps with precincts:

Note:  Additional supplemental maps can be found at bottom of diary.

Discussion of Individual Districts:

YELLOW – District 1:  Frank Kratovil (home: Queen Anne’s County)

Current District:  Obama 39.8%; McCain 58.3% (McCain + 18.5)

Proposed District:  Obama 52.3%; McCain 45.9% (Obama + 6.4)

Proposed District:  Kerry 47.9%; Bush 51.1%

Proposed District:  Cardin 45.6%; Steele 52.7%

Proposed District:  O’Malley 44.5%; Ehrlich 54.4%

This district continues to encompass the entire Eastern Shore.  The new district proceeds through parts of northern Harford and Baltimore Counties (although it completely excludes the State Senate District of 2008 GOP Candidate Andy Harris) and into very Democratic territory on the western side of Baltimore County.   The district also includes the Annapolis area in Anne Arundel County.  Interestingly, both the Obama-McCain and Kerry-Bush percentages of the new district correspond very closely to the national average.

Major communities in proposed MD-1 district: all of Eastern Shore; Harford County – Bel Air (part); Baltimore County – Randallstown, Lochearn, Milford Mill, Owings Mills, Reisterstown, Woodlawn (part); Anne Arundel County – Annapolis.

GRAY – District 2:  Dutch Ruppersberger (home: Cockeysville)

Current District:  Obama 59.8%; McCain 38.3% (Obama + 21.5)

Proposed District:  Obama 60.8%; McCain 37.5% (Obama + 23.3)

Proposed District:  Kerry 55.3%; Bush 43.8%

Proposed District:  Cardin 52.3%; Steele 45.9%

Proposed District:  O’Malley 51.0%; Ehrlich 47.8%

The new district continues to include most of the communities currently in MD-2, including parts of Anne Arundel, Harford and Baltimore Counties, as well as Baltimore City (the proposed district includes all areas of Baltimore City currently in MD-2 and also adds the area around Hopkins/Bayview Hospital on the eastern side of the city.)  The new district expands into parts of Prince George’s and Howard Counties.

Major communities in proposed MD-2 district: Baltimore City (part); Anne Arundel County – Brooklyn Park, Glen Burnie (part), Severn, Fort Meade, Odenton, Maryland City; Harford County – Bel Air (part), Fallston, Joppatowne, Edgewood, Aberdeen, Havre de Grace; Baltimore County – Cockeysville, Towson (part), Rosedale, Middle River (part), Essex (part), Dundalk (part); Prince George’s County – Laurel; Howard County – Savage-Guilford.

ORANGE – District 3:  John Sarbanes (home: Towson)

Current District:  Obama 58.8%; McCain 39.2% (Obama + 19.6)

Proposed District:  Obama 60.5%; McCain 38.0% (Obama + 22.5)

Proposed District:  Kerry 55.4%; Bush 43.8%

Proposed District:  Cardin 57.3%; Steele 40.9%

Proposed District:  O’Malley 52.4%; Ehrlich 46.2%

Like MD-2, the new MD-3 remains quite similar to the current district.  Most of the Baltimore City, Baltimore County and Howard County areas remain intact.  Additional territory in Baltimore Co., Howard County and Montgomery County is added.  The Anne Arundel County part of the current district is detached.

Major communities in proposed MD-3 district: Baltimore City (part); Baltimore County Towson (part), ParkvilleCarney, Pikesville, Timonium-Lutherville, Perry Hall, White Marsh, Arbutus, Lansdowne; Howard County – Elkridge, Ellicott City (part), Columbia, North Laurel; Montgomery County – Burtonsville, Colesville, Aspen Hill (part), Olney, Laytonsville.

RED – District 4:  Donna Edwards (home: Fort Washington)

Current District:  Obama 85.1%; McCain 14.2% (Obama + 70.9)

Proposed District:  Obama 70.7%; McCain 28.0% (Obama + 42.7)

Proposed District:  Kerry 64.0%; Bush 34.8%

Proposed District:  Cardin 60.7%; Steele 37.9%

Proposed District:  O’Malley 61.7%; Ehrlich 37.3%

Proposed District African-American: 51%

The new MD-4 continues to encompass much of the same Prince George’s County communities currently in the district.  The Montgomery County part of the current district is detached and is substituted by parts of Anne Arundel and Baltimore Counties; very Republican precincts from both counties are added, and the overall Democratic percentage of the district goes down a lot, but still stays at over 70% Obama (there is completely no need to have a district with an Obama advantage of 85-14 !).

Major communities in proposed MD-4 district: Prince Goerge’s County – Fort Washington (part), Oxon Hill, Temple Hills, Andrews AFB, Forestville, Largo-Kettering, Mitchelville, Glenarden, Bladensburg, Riverdale, Hyattsville (part), College Park (part), Langley Park, Adelphi, Beltsville; Anne Arundel County – Crownsville, Gambrills, Davidsonville (part), Millersville, Severna Park, Pasadena-Lake Shore, Riviera Beach, Glen Burnie (part), Ferndale, Linthicum; Baltimore County – Sparrows Point/Edgemere, Dundalk (part), Essex (part), Middle River (part).

PURPLE – District 5:  Steny Hoyer (home: Mechanicsville)

Current District:  Obama 65.4%; McCain 33.3% (Obama + 32.1)

Proposed District:  Obama 62.7%; McCain 36.0% (Obama + 26.7)

Proposed District:  Kerry 54.7%; Bush 44.5%

Proposed District:  Cardin 53.7%; Steele 45.0%

Proposed District:  O’Malley 54.3%; Ehrlich 44.7%

This district changes relatively very little.  It continues to encompass all of the three Southern Maryland counties, south Anne Arundel Co. and “outer” Prince George’s Co.  Parts of Upper Marlboro as well as Crofton and parts of the Annapolis and Broadneck peninsulas are added, while Laurel and adjoining parts of northern Prince George’s are taken out of the district.  The district becomes slightly less Democratic, but it still has a very healthy 26.7 point Obama advantage over McCain.

Major communities in proposed MD-5 district: All of Southern Maryland – Calvert County, Charles County, St. Mary’s County; Prince Goerge’s County – Fort Washington (part), Clinton, Upper Marlboro, Bowie, Glenn Dale, Greenbelt; Anne Arundel County – Riva, Edgewater, Davidsonville (part), Mayo, Shady Side, Deale, Parole/Annapolis, Arnold, Cape St. Claire, Crofton.

GREEN – District 6:  Roscoe Bartlett (home: Frederick)

Current District:  Obama 40.2%; McCain 57.7% (McCain + 17.5)

Proposed District:  Obama 60.3%; McCain 37.7% (Obama + 22.6)

Proposed District:  Kerry 54.3%; Bush 44.7%

Proposed District:  Cardin 54.5%; Steele 44.1%

Proposed District:  O’Malley 51.6%; Ehrlich 47.3%

The new district includes most of Frederick County, parts of Carroll County, as well as a good chunk of Montgomery County.  The new territory in Montgomery is the factor that dramatically changes the political composition of this district, as some of the most Democratic parts of the county are added to MD-6.

Major communities in proposed MD-6 district:  Frederick County – Frederick, Middletown, Thurmont, Emmitsburg, New Market, Mt. Airy; Carroll County – Taneytown, Manchester; Montgomery County – Damascus, Clarksburg, Germantown, Montgomery Village, Aspen Hill (part), Wheaton-Glenmont, White Oak, Silver Spring (part), Takoma Park (part).

BLUE – District 7:  Elijah Cummings (home: Baltimore City)

Current District:  Obama 78.8%; McCain 19.9% (Obama + 58.9)

Proposed District:  Obama 67.0%; McCain 31.5% (Obama + 35.5)

Proposed District:  Kerry 60.8%; Bush 37.9%

Proposed District:  Cardin 55.2%; Steele 42.8%

Proposed District:  O’Malley 55.2%; Ehrlich 43.1%

Proposed District African-American: 51%

The new MD-7 is not that different from the current district.  The Baltimore City portion of the district remains wholly intact, and, in fact, is expanded to include a few additional African-American majority neighborhoods (including the Pimlico and Coldspring areas in the northwestern part of the city).  The Catonsville and Woodlawn areas in western Baltimore County as well as a good portion of Howard County also remain with MD-7. New, more Republican areas in northern Baltimore County, and parts of Carroll and Harford Counties are added to the district.

Major communities in proposed MD-7 district:  Baltimore City (part); Baltimore County – Catonsville, Woodlawn (part); Harford County – Jarretsville; Carroll County – Westminster, Hampstead, Eldersburg, Sykesville; Howard County – Ellicott City (part).

PINK – District 8:  Chris Van Hollen (home: Kensington)

Current District:  Obama 73.9%; McCain 24.7% (Obama + 49.2)

Proposed District:  Obama 62.0%; McCain 36.2% (Obama + 25.8)

Proposed District:  Kerry 56.9%; Bush 41.6%

Proposed District:  Cardin 58.3%; Steele 40.4%

Proposed District:  O’Malley 55.0%; Ehrlich 44.0%

The new district includes most of Montgomery County, parts of Frederick and Prince George’s Counties, as well as all of the three Western Maryland counties.  The district becomes somewhat less Democratic, but the new MD-8 still has some of the state’s best partisan stats (4th best Obama percentage, after the two African-American majority districts, and just behind MD-5; 3rd best Kerry percentage; 3rd best O’Malley percentage – just slightly behind MD-7; and 2nd best Cardin percentage – behind only MD-4 and ahead of both MD-3, Cardin’s home district, and the new MD-7 !).

Major communities in proposed MD-8 district:  All of Western Maryland (Garrett County, Allegany County, Washington County); Frederick County – Brunswick; Montgomery County – Silver Spring (part), Takoma Park (part), Kensington, Chevy Chase, Bethesda, Potomac, Rockville, Gaithersburg, Poolesville; Prince George’s County – Hyattsville (part), Mt. Rainier, Cheverly, Seat Pleasant, Landover.  

Note:  for the entire plan above, the boundaries of only three precincts had to be changed slightly in order to make the map work: 26-7 and 26-11 in Baltimore City, and 4-11 in Baltimore County.

So that’s my Maryland Redistricting Plan – Version 2.  I welcome comments and discussion (if possible, could someone calculate the “PVI’s” for my “new” districts based on the numbers above; I’m not being lazy, just not exactly sure what the current definition is).

Maps of Presidential Performance 2008:

Baltimore City:

Btw, the Baltimore City precinct from the map above that voted 100% for Obama is 15-12, part of the Walbrook neighborhood !  (close-up map is below).  In addition, 47 other precincts in Baltimore City had Obama percentages of 99.0 to 99.9, while 48 voted for Obama at a 98.0 to 98.9% rate (there were also 32 precincts in Prince George’s County that had Obama percentages of between 98.0 and 98.9, and five that voted 99.0 to 99.9% for Obama).  I grew up in Baltimore and currently reside in Silver Spring, and am very proud to live in the great state of Maryland !

The story just keeps getting crazier and crazier:

Sen. Hiram Monserrate has switched sides – again.

“I’m coming home,” the Queens Democrat told the Daily News in an exclusive interview on Sunday. …

His decision creates an astonishing 31-31 deadlock in the Senate and further muddles the question of which party controls that body.

“I said I wouldn’t return to the caucus without a leadership change among the Democrats, and that has happened,” Monserrate told The News.

On Friday, Senate Democrats settled on Brooklyn’s John Sampson to replace Malcolm Smith as leader of their conference, but to keep Smith as the majority leader.

It’s very hard to say what might happen next, though Elizabeth Benjamin at the Daily News tries to game things out. Needless to say, if traitor ringleader Pedro Espada doesn’t crack, he will almost assuredly get his ass primaried if there’s any sense left in this universe. Monserrate’s twice-in-a-week side-switching probably isn’t healthful to his future, either. And if this whole coup falls apart, it’ll also be nice to see Tom Golisano get humiliated.

For some related and entertaining history, check out this post at The Thicket which chronicles Willie Brown’s attempts to block the GOP from controlling the California state Assembly in 1995 by seducing a series of dissident Republicans. Two of them were quickly recalled by voters – an option not available to Dems in New York – and the GOP eventually seized power. But a year later, Dems gained an outright majority in the chamber.