Swing State Project

Crossposted at Daily Kos

With the 2010 Census just a year away and the next round of nationwide redistricting two or three years away, I’ve decided to start looking at the redistricting situations in different states and begin some conversation about what kinds of changes we can expect to see. These diaries will be sporadic, and the data is always subject to change (for now, county population estimates are from 2007; 2008 numbers will be out soon, meaning my number-crunching will need constant adjusting)…but for we super-geeks, merely the discussion of redistricting and speculation on its effects will be sufficiently entertaining.

My “state focus” redistricting diaries will cover two states, usually one large and one a bit smaller.

Today, I was feeling the vibes of 2004, so we’ll delve into Massachusetts and Texas. Below the fold…

Massachusetts

The redistricting process in Massachusetts is expected to be run by the Democrats in 2011-2012, and even if Gov. Deval Patrick manages to lose to a Republican in 2010, it won’t make much difference for the sake of district maps; all ten congressional incumbents are left-of-center Democrats.

Unfortunately, Massachusetts is likely to lose one seat due to its lagging population growth. You can see the current Mass. congressional map (and it’s quite a mess; the late Bay Stater Elbridge Gerry himself would be proud) here.

So I tried to think like a Democratic state legislator forced to eliminate one of his/her own from Congress. Seeing that population growth was weakest in western Massachusetts, and that Rep. John Olver (D-Amherst) will be 76 at the 2012 election, it seemed logical to combine western Mass’s two districts and force Olver against his then-63-year-old colleague, Richard Neal of Springfield. Most think Olver would retire if pitted against Neal. The other eight seats mostly fell into place, though I dramatically redrew some of them for cleaner, more compact district lines. This was tough because four Congresspeople call Middlesex County home, yet I wanted to avoid splitting counties too many ways. It is doubtful that the legislature will be as averse to messy lines as I was, but this is a rough approximation of what I see coming out of the next round of redistricting (and yes, I think all nine seats should be comfortably Democratic):

District 1 – Olver vs. Neal

District 2 – Jim McGovern (D-Worcester) — picks up the remainder of Hampden County not covered by District 1 but anchored in Worcester County.

District 3 – Barney Frank (D-Newton) — now entirely within Middlesex County.

District 4 – Niki Tsongas (D-Lowell) — dominated by Middlesex, picks up the remainder of Worcester.

District 5 – John Tierney (D-Salem) — now entirely within Essex County, ye olde witch-hunters.

District 6 – Ed Markey (D-Malden) — dominated by Norfolk County, nabs the small remainder of Essex and enough of Middlesex to retain Markey’s home base.

District 7 – Mike Capuano (D-Somerville) — why can’t he just move to Boston? This district grabs 96% of Suffolk County, but had to eat into a tiny section of Middlesex to keep his home intact.

District 8 – Stephen Lynch (D-South Boston) — this one changes significantly: it retains his base in South Boston but is now dominated by Bristol County, theoretically rendering him vulnerable to a primary challenge (not my intent by any means, but the bizarre lines in Middlesex, Suffolk, and Norfolk Counties simply had to end).

District 9 – Bill Delahunt (D-Quincy) — still the Cape Cod/Nantucket district, preserving his home in Norfolk but dominated by Plymouth and Barnstable Counties.

In the end, Massachusetts wasn’t too hard. Certainly not compared to Texas, a state of 32 seats that is expected to gain another four!

Texas

Barring a huge slowdown in migration during 2009 and before the Census on April 1, 2010 (and such a slowdown is possible), Texas should gain four seats for a whopping total of 36 districts. The Republicans currently hold the state government trifecta in the Lone Star State, but only with a fragile 76-74 lead in the state House. Democrats are bullish about winning the House in 2010.

The opportunity to prevent a wrenching repeat of the 2003 DeLaymander in Texas is an exciting one for political junkies, but if my map-making experiment (again, using 2007 estimates, so take with salt) was at all accurate, Republicans are nearly maxed-out on seats in Texas as it is. I attempted in this venture to put on my thinking cap, imagine I was a Republican state legislator, and work to protect all GOP incumbents, weaken Rep. Chet Edwards (D-Waco), and maximize GOP advantages in the four new seats…but because of where the four new seats ended up being located in my simulation, I can’t really imagine Republicans winning more than two of them. Of course, their map artistes are surely far superior in skill to me and my low-tech method, but the point stands: once all 32 incumbents were done, I found significant leftover population in urban Dallas-Fort Worth and Houston, in areas I would expect to tilt Democratic given voting trends in Harris and Dallas Counties.

The other two seats were odd rural-urban mixes that meander and should lean Republican (especially the one stretching down Central Texas from Tarrant County). Here’s the map:

Texas is so large, and its urban seats so small in area, that you can’t even see some of the 36 districts, so here are the details on each one:

District 1 – Louie Gohmert (R-Tyler) — stays safely GOP, merely contracts in area.

District 2 – Ted Poe (R-Humble) — ditto

District 3 – Sam Johnson (R-Plano) — I chose to keep this entirely within Collin County for purposes of compactness.

District 4 – Ralph Hall (R-Rockwall) — remains an odd mix of rural northeast Texas and the far outskirts of the Metroplex.

District 5 – Jeb Hensarling (R-Dallas) — snatches exurbs and small towns in East Texas, but Dallas County is still the largest population source.

District 6 – Joe Barton (R-Ennis) — looks rural on a map but is in fact dominated by Tarrant and Ellis Counties.

District 7 – John Culberson (R-Houston) — entirely within Harris County

District 8 – Kevin Brady (R-The Woodlands) — grabs 92% of Montgomery County and conservative marshy areas north of Houston.

District 9 – Al Green (D-Houston) — dominated by Houston but catches diverse parts of Fort Bend County to remain a Voting Rights Act African-American opportunity seat.

District 10 – Mike McCaul (R-Austin) — still the Austin-to-Houston seat, but weighted more toward Austin.

District 11 – Mike Conaway (R-Midland) — with 35 counties by my count, this is one rural district if ever I’ve seen one.

District 12 – Kay Granger (R-Fort Worth) — dominated by Tarrant, but kept safely GOP because of Parker and Wise Counties.

District 13 – Mac Thornberry (R-Clarendon) — no, actually, this is one rural district if ever I’ve seen one, with 44 counties wholly or partially included.

District 14 – Ron Paul (R-Surfside) — dominated by Brazoria and Galveston Counties, contracting a bit in area due to population growth.

District 15 – Rubén Hinojosa (D-Mercedes) — might be a tad whiter due to shedding some of Hidalgo County and picking up conservative areas up north, but still heavily Hispanic and Democratic.

District 16 – Silvestre Reyes (D-El Paso) — still contained in El Paso County.

District 17 – Chet Edwards (D-Waco) — I tried to think like a Republican and mess with him a bit by edging the district a bit further southeast and even into Montgomery County, but there’s only so much more that can be done to hurt this Dem survivor.

District 18 – Sheila Jackson Lee (D-Houston) — smaller in area, but should still be a VRA “African-American opportunity seat”.

District 19 – Randy Neugebauer (R-Lubbock) — Republicans might like to make him, Thornberry, and Conaway a bit less overwhelmingly safe to help the party elsewhere, but unfortunately for the GOP, its votes are concentrated thickly in West Texas.

District 20 – Charlie Gonzalez (D-San Antonio) — still heavily Hispanic, still entirely within Bexar County.

District 21 – Lamar Smith (R-San Antonio) — I removed Travis County to 1) make him even safer, 2) allow him to concentrate his base in Bexar County, and 3) keep GOP Hill Country voters together.

District 22 – Pete Olson (R-Sugar Land) — anchored in Fort Bend but snaking into Harris and Wharton; probably safer for Olson than before but trending the wrong way long-term for his party.

District 23 – Ciro Rodriguez (D-San Antonio) — the Big Bend district is still dominated by south San Antonio and is probably a bit more heavily Hispanic.

District 24 – Kenny Marchant (R-Coppell) — links northeast Tarrant with northwest Dallas Counties to preserve suburban GOP votes.

District 25 – Lloyd Doggett (D-Austin) — I think the Republicans will finally put him entirely in Travis County to pack Democratic votes and keep fast-growing Central Texas counties open for the taking. They’ve certainly given up on defeating him.

District 26 – Mike Burgess (R-Lewisville) — all of Denton County and a small slice of Tarrant.

District 27 – Solomon Ortiz (D-Corpus Christi) — really doesn’t change much; heavily Hispanic and Democratic-leaning.

District 28 – Henry Cuellar (D-Laredo) — growth is so strong in Hidalgo County that this district sheds its northern reaches and becomes possibly the state’s most Hispanic seat. 90% of Cuellar’s Webb County base is preserved but he could become more vulnerable to a McAllen-area primary challenge.

District 29 – Gene Green (D-Houston) — still a tiny sliver of Harris; I assume it will stay majority-Hispanic, but that mantle could be taken up by the new 35th…I’m not familiar enough with Houston geography.

District 30 – Eddie Bernice Johnson (D-Dallas) — concentrates black neighborhoods of Dallas.

District 31 – John Carter (R-Round Rock) — growth in Williamson County has been stupendous enough that this district is becoming surprisingly small in area.

District 32 – Pete Sessions (R-Dallas) — desperately attempts to grab Republicans in north Dallas.

And now, the four new seats as I found them:

District 33 – Dallas & Tarrant Counties — this lilliputian snake of land vaguely recalls Martin Frost’s (D-Arlington) former stomping grounds, a diverse urban-suburban Metroplex mélange presumably leaning Democratic. In fact, I’m fairly sure of it electing a Democrat, as Republicans have milked every seat they possibly can out of the Dallas area.

District 34 – remainders of Tarrant County, stretches all the way to Guadalupe County near San Antonio — this is an ugly district, with a barely-visible serpentine line down Williamson and Travis Counties. It is meant to find all the Republicans not already accounted for in the 12th, 17th, 21st, or 31st, but I would certainly hope the legislature doesn’t try to draw something so incoherent.

District 35 – Harris County — unlike the masterful DeLay-led cracking of Democratic votes in Dallas-Fort Worth, Houston already has three Democratic Reps., but all in VRA opportunity seats. Is it time for a “limousine liberal” seat in Houston, or is there room for another John Culberson-like Republican?

District 36 – arches from north of Laredo through San Antonio to the coast — less bizarre than the 34th, but still an oddity, this seat’s population base is Bexar County but should elect a Republican despite its decent Hispanic population. The odd nature of this district was necessitated by VRA Hispanic seats like the 23rd and 28th dropping their “whiter” counties. If Henry Bonilla (R-San Antonio) ever wanted to stage a comeback, my 36th would be a great shot for him.

I’m not exactly pleased with some odd boundaries in this map, especially the downright psychedelic 34th District. The explosive growth in three areas — the Metroplex, Houston, and Central Texas around Austin — meant some odd leftovers when all incumbents were solidified. But the real point here is that, even if Republicans still run the process in Texas next round, their room for growth is limited. My plan might allow them as great as a 24-12 majority should they defeat Chet Edwards, but 23-13 is more likely. Perhaps an experienced Friend of Elbridge (and by that I mean a professional gerrymander-er) could craft something more advantageous, but as long as Democratic strength grows in the metro areas, protecting suburban GOP incumbents like Kenny Marchant, Kay Granger, and Pete Olson will be the utmost priority. I really think redistricting could be a wash in the Lone Star State, whether Republicans control the House or not.

The next diary will map Michigan and Nevada; after that, we’ll get Iowa and my greatest masterpiece to date, Ohio.

This strikes me as hilarious:

Here at CPAC a well placed source with knowledge of the Republican Senate Committee plans tells me that Larry Kudlow is “considering” a Senate run against embattled Connecticut Senator Chris Dodd.

Larry Kudlow has a long track record of being wrong about just about everything. Just last week, for instance, he was addled enough to say of Obama’s mortage plan that “the people who win here are Fannie and Freddie. The Americans who paid their taxes on time and their mortgages on time get hurt” – even though Fannie and Freddie are, of course, now owned by the US government. And that’s just one example among many, many more – check out Atrios’s archives for all kinds of gems.

I’m sure John Cornyn strongly prefers former Congressmam Rob Simmons for this race, and I tend to think this Kudlow rumor won’t go anywhere. If nothing else, the guy has a pretty cush life and a… complicated past. But I’d love to see Kudlow make a fool of himself on the campaign trail.

Kathleen Sebelius is on her way to Washington.

President Barack Obama on Saturday asked Kansas Gov. Kathleen Sebelius to be his nominee for Health and Human Services secretary, according to two White House officials. The officials told CNN that Obama is expected to make the announcement Monday afternoon.

This will give current Lt. Gov. Mark Parkinson at least two years as Kansas governor (which may give him a leg up toward another term, if he wants, although he said he wouldn’t run for governor earlier). In terms of larger national implications, this takes Sebelius off the table for the open Kansas senate race in 2010, which she had a good shot to win according to Research 2000.

UPDATE (David): With this move, KS-Sen unfortunately comes off of our Races to Watch list.

The Oklahoman:

U.S. Rep. Mary Fallin answered the question most delegates to today’s Oklahoma County Republican Convention wanted to know: She is running for governor in 2010.

When introducing Fallin, Pam Pollard, outgoing chairman of the Oklahoma County Republican Party, asked the two-term congresswoman whether she was forgoing a third term to seek the governor’s office.

“I’ve had to make some pretty tough decisions on behalf of our nation the last couple of years, but when it comes to making decisions about the future of Oklahoma and the leadership of Oklahoma and the governor of Oklahoma, my answer is yes,” Fallin said.

We have a decent Dem bench in Oklahoma, but the problem is that the two biggest guns, Lt. Gov. Jari Askins and Attorney General Drew Edmondson, are both seeking the Democratic gubernatorial nod. How rough could this one get?

On the House side of the equation, open seat fans might find Mary Fallin’s vacant seat of mild interest. While most of the rest of Oklahoma swung hard to the right last year (especially Dan Boren’s traditionally Democratic 2nd CD), the Oklahoma City-based 5th District actually lurched in the Democratic direction. While John Kerry got pounded by a 64-36 margin here in 2004, McCain’s margin tightened to 59-41 over Obama while holding Bush-like margins nearly everywhere else in the state.

Crisitunity:

As a wise man once pointed out, they don’t smoke marijuana in Muskogee. They don’t take their trips on LSD. They don’t burn their draft cards in the town square, because they like living right and being free.

Apparently the welcome mat’s out for bong-toting peacenik acid freaks in Oklahoma City now, though.

So who might run here for Team Blue? Might Andrew Rice be interested in a race like this?

(H/T: trowaman)

The incomparable Michele Bachmann:

“Michael Steele! You be da man! You be da man.”

Page One Kentucky has picked up a pretty wild piece of chatter:

Rumor has it that Jim Bunning is so spitting mad that he’s telling people he’ll just resign and let Steve (Beshear) appoint someone. […]

UPDATE: Spoke with one of Bunning’s staffers and they don’t deny it. WTF. Granted, it only means he probably said it.  But was it in frustration or was he serious?

This is probably not going to happen, but Bunning is one crazy sumbitch, so I guess we can let our imaginations run wild. If he actually went through with it, expect Democratic Gov. Steve Beshear to give his Number One, Dan Mongiardo, a quick promotion to DC.

UPDATE: Hilarious:

Sen. Jim Bunning (R-Ky.) told a room full of lobbyists this week that he’d resign his Senate seat early if he doesn’t get campaign money from national Republicans, according to two sources with knowledge of the situation.

But Bunning insists he’s going to run for reelection and says that the sources are “lying.”

“It’s not true,” Bunning said in a statement. “I intend to fulfill my obligation to the people of Kentucky. If you are going to write something like this, you’d better make your sources known because they are lying.”

It’s very likely that Mitch McConnell and John Cornyn have been working overtime to tighten the purse strings of Bunning’s major fundraising sources, so this story kind of makes sense — Bunning is threatening to pull the rug out from underneath the GOP caucus if donors don’t start opening up their wallets for him. Looks like a few more people are gonna have to take a chomp out of this shit sandwich.

(H/T: sicembears)

Bayou Buzz:

In a breaking story, Bayoubuzz.com and The Louisiana Weekly have learned that a Campaign has begun to draft former Fifth District Congressman Dr. John Cooksey to run in the GOP primary against David Vitter in 2010.

Moreover, sources close to the Monroe Ophthalmologist say that the retired member of Congress is very interested.  So interested, in fact, that he is willing to commit a sizable portion of his personal savings to a campaign against the incumbent Republican Senator.  

“John is willing to put up $200,000 of his own money to take on Vitter.  He only wants to know that there is public support for a run,” said a senior advisor to the former Congressman-who asked not to be named.

200 G’s is not nothin’, but Cooksey will need to amass considerably more financial support in order to have a shot against Vitter in a primary. (Perhaps the bastards at the American Academy of Ophthalmology may be willing to lend an assist to one of their own here.) Cooksey, a former Representative who served in the House for three terms, was last seen flaming out spectacularly in Louisiana’s 2002 Senate race after he compared turbans to diapers, winning only 14% in the multi-party primary.

So now we have Cooksey, Tony Perkins, and Secretary of State Jay Dardenne all sniffing around Vitter’s seat. Let’s just hope that someone can get off the pot soon.

(H/T: The Hill)

Illinois governor Pat Quinn is pushing the idea of a special election to fill in the Illinois senate seat… the one that Roland Burris is currently occupying and doesn’t seem to be moving to relinquish. This wouldn’t be a recall election (recall power doesn’t exist at the federal level), but rather an end-run that would apparently clarify that Burris’s appointment lasts until any next election (not just the next federal election), and then set an election date much sooner than 2010. Sounds a little legally questionable to me, but AG Lisa Madigan seems to think it’s copacetic:

Quinn, appearing on “The Steve Cochran Show” on WGN-AM (720), said he spoke to the top two Democrats in the General Assembly today about the possibility of moving ahead with the legislation, which would take advantage of a clause contained in the U.S. Constitution’s 17th Amendment.

Quinn’s actions follow a legal opinion issued last night by Atty. Gen. Lisa Madigan who said she believed the state could enact a special-election law that would effectively force Burris from office. Under the Constitution, a governor’s appointments to fill Senate vacancies should be considered temporary until an election is held, she said.

Even if it’s legal, though, the question of the price tag may prevent it from going through. Estimates of up to $50 million to hold a special election may throw cold water on the idea.

Regardless of whether there’s a special election soon or a long march till 2010, one more interested Democratic contender for the Senate has popped out of the woodwork today: William Daley. He plans to make his announcement in mid-April. Daley is the former Clinton-era Commerce Secretary, and perhaps more significantly, brother to Chicago mayor Richard Daley. Hmmm, I wonder which candidate the Daley machine will get behind?

Thanks to New Hampshire blogger Dean Barker I learned something new today about Senator Judd Gregg.  

According to the Associated Press,

President Barack Obama’s former nominee to become commerce secretary, Sen. Judd Gregg, steered taxpayer money to his home state’s redevelopment of a former Air Force base even as he and his brother engaged in real estate deals there, an Associated Press investigation found.

Gregg, R-N.H., personally has invested hundreds of thousands of dollars in Cyrus Gregg’s office projects at the Pease International Tradeport, a Portsmouth business park built at the defunct Pease Air Force Base, once home to nuclear bombers. Judd Gregg has collected at least $240,017 to $651,801 from his investments there, Senate records show, while helping arrange at least $66 million in federal aid for the former base.

Sadly, this isn’t unprecedented or even the most egregious example of members of Congress profiting from earmarks. Former House Speaker Dennis Hastert sold real estate for nearly $2 million in profits after he secured federal earmarks to construct the Prairie Parkway near land he owned.

What looks corrupt in politics turns out to be legal more often than not, and that seems to be the case here. The AP says Senate ethics rules do not permit senators to direct earmarks to projects “solely” in order to benefit themselves or their family members financially, but of course Gregg could point to all kinds of benefits from redeveloping the former base.

“I am absolutely sure that in every way I’ve complied with the ethics rules of the Senate both literally and in their spirit relative to any investment that I’ve made anywhere,” Gregg told the AP. “These earmarks do not benefit me in any way, shape, manner financially, personally or in any other manner other than the fact that I’m a citizen of New Hampshire.”

Still, one wonders whether this story prompted Gregg to withdraw his nomination for Commerce Secretary. Whatever his reasons, we’re better off without him.

Members of Congress should stick to the usual form of legalized corruption and only seek earmarks that would personally profit their large campaign contributors.

No one raises ethical concerns about that behavior. As a bonus, donors who stand to gain from the earmarks may go the extra mile during the incumbent’s next tough campaign.

• NH-Sen: Oh, darn. Ex-Sen. Bob Smith isn’t planning to run in the GOP primary for Judd Gregg’s open senate seat. He said he prefers to remain a Florida resident.

• OH-Sen: Add a fourth candidate (and, with Tyrone Yates, a second African-American with a less-than-statewide profile) to the mix in the Ohio senate primary: Cuyahoga County Commissioner Peter Lawson Jones. Last week he told Ohio Daily Blog that he’d be forming an exploratory committee this week. (No telling if that actually happened.)

• OH-02: You may remember David Krikorian, an independent who racked up double-digits in last year’s Schmidt/Wulsin faceoff. He’s announced that he’s going to seek the Democratic nomination for a rerun, as a loud ‘n’ proud Blue Dog.

• IL-05: It’s the last weekend of campaigning before the Mar. 3 primary for the special election to fill Rahm Emanuel’s seat. With 12 candidates and projected low turnout, basically anything can happen. While Emanuel hasn’t endorsed, Politico does observe that there’s a Sara Feigenholtz sign in his yard in Chicago.

• DCCC: Chris Van Hollen announced his 2009-10 chair for candidate recruitment: Rep. Steve Israel (of NY-02). He also announced that Robby Mook, most recently Jeanne Shaheen’s campaign manager, will take over as the DCCC’s political director.

• FEC: This ought to make James’s job a lot easier: Russ Feingold has introduced legislation, widely expected to pass, requiring Senate candidates to electronically file their campaign finance reports with the FEC, the way House candidates already do. Currently, Senate filings are paper-only.

• KY-St Sen.: Here’s a bit of good news that’s a few weeks old that eluded us until now: a Democratic candidate, Mike Reynolds, won the Feb. 11 special election to fill the state senate seat vacated by Republican Brett Guthrie (elected in KY-02 in November). The 32nd, based in Bowling Green, is in a deep red area at the federal level, but apparently still maintains a downballot Dem tradition. The GOP still controls the state senate, 21-16-1.

• NYC: SSP doesn’t usually delve into county-level governance, but this involves one of the legal community’s most legendary members: Bob Morgenthau, the District Attorney of New York County (aka Manhattan), has decided not to go for a 10th term. Currently 89 years old, he’s been in office for 35 years.

• Retread Watch: Yeah, there’s some precedent for this. But isn’t it a little sad that twice-defeated House loser Jeb Bradley is considering a run for New Hampshire state Senate?