Swing State Project

This is it.  It’s time for my final look at all the 2008 Senate races.  There are 35 seats up for election because of a scenario in Wyoming and Mississippi where both seats are up, due to the passing of Craig Thomas and the resignation of Trent Lott, respectively.  Obviously, quite a few of the races are considered “safe” for the incumbent.  So what are the competitive races?

Again, just to be clear, I don’t do predictions.  Every time I do, horrible things happen.  So I won’t even make an actual prediction on the Virginia Senate race, because doing so would effectively jinx Mark Warner.  And with the election tomorrow, tiers no longer matter, so I’ll simply rank the competitive races where party control of the seat may switch.  All others are deemed safe seats, which now include all of the Tier II and III seats from last time.

See my previous mid-October diary to see what things have changed since my last update.  Previous rankings are in parentheses.

Tier I

1. Virginia (1): Former popular Governor Mark Warner (D) is still cruising.  Former unpopular former Governor Jim Gilmore (R) hasn’t even gotten above 35% in any poll taken since early September, and Warner cannot get below 55%.  Only God or the Devil can stop this one now, but still, no official predictions from me.

2. New Mexico (2): Rep. Tom Udall (D) is running against Rep. Steve Pearce (R).  Since October, Udall’s re-opened his massive lead after getting hit by attacks from conservative independent groups.  Pearce has not gotten above 42% since early September, while Udall has been consistently over the 50% mark at the same time.  The NRSC has basically conceded defeat in this race.

3. Colorado (3): Rep. Mark Udall (D) is Mo Udall’s son, and Tom Udall’s cousin.  He’s facing off against former Congressman Bob Schaffer (R).  All the late October polling shows Udall ahead by double digits.  The NRSC finally pulled out of Colorado last week after doing a head fake.

4. New Hampshire (4): Former Governor Jeanne Shaheen (D), who John Sununu (R) beat in 2002, is back for a rematch.  She has led Sununu in almost every single poll taken in 2008, and without some illegal phone-jamming on Election Day to help Sununu out this time around, Shaheen looks to be in good shape.  Though Sununu still has a significant cash on hand advantage, it hasn’t helped him.

5. Alaska (8): Conviction!  84-year-old Ted Stevens (R) was convicted on all 7 felony counts for not disclosing the gifts (over $250,000 worth) he got from oil company Veco Corp. last Monday.  Anchorage mayor Mark Begich (D), who had been in a very close race with Stevens, has now opened up a decent lead in the polls, turning what seemed to be a nailbiter into a more comfortable lead.  Something about voting for a convicted felon, I guess.  Still, Rasmussen’s poll has it as a single-digit race, so don’t count out Alaska’s unique brand of crazy just yet.

6. North Carolina (5): The polls have shown a complete reversal of fortune starting in August.  Kay Hagan (D) has been climbing steadily in the polls, while incumbent Elizabeth Dole (R) has been steadily falling.  So what do you do if you’re Dole?  Run an incredibly horrible attack ad calling your opponent, a Sunday school teacher, “godless”.  That’s the sign of a desperate and losing campaign, as four different polls taken in late October now show Hagan at or above the 50% mark.

7. Oregon (6): Oregon House Speaker Jeff Merkley (D) is challenging incumbent Gordon Smith (R), and has been steadily gaining ground in the polls over the past month.  Every non-partisan poll taken in late October showed Merkley with some kind of lead.  Still, none of them showed him at 50% or above, so this one’s not a done deal yet.

8. Minnesota (7): Norm Coleman (R) won this seat in 2002 only after Paul Wellstone (D) died just a few weeks before the election.  Comedian Al Franken got the DFL (basically the Democratic Party for Minnesota) nod.  The recent polling now shows a pure tossup, with some polls showing Franken in teh lead, and some polls showing Coleman leading.  But late-breaking news has a new lawsuit filed against Coleman alledging $75,000 being funneled to Coleman’s wife from a big GOP donor.

9. Georgia (9): Former state representative Jim Martin (D) is going up against Saxby Chambliss (R), who ousted Vietnam veteran and triple amputee Max Cleland (D) in 2002 by running a despicable ad blending the images of Osama bin Laden and Saddam Hussein into Cleland’s face, earning him the nickname “Shameless Saxby”.  Starting with the economic collapse, poll after poll showed a completely different race, with Martin only behind by a statistically insignificant margin.  However, they all still show Martin trailing.  Now, Georgia has a rule that the winner must get over 50% of the vote, and the Libertarian candidate may take enough away that nobody can get 50%, in which case it will go to a runoff in December.

10. Kentucky (10): Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R) is now a top target of the Democrats.  Wealthy businessman Bruce Lunsford (D) can afford to self-fund, and he’ll need to, with McConnell’s HUGE warchest of over $9 million.  In just the last month, the polls suddenly showed Lunsford gaining significant ground on McConnell, but the latest two polls show McConnell gaining ground again, getting over the 50% mark.

11. Mississippi-B (11): Roger Wicker (R), appointed by governor Haley Barbour (R) on New Year’s Eve after Trent Lott (R) resigned to become a lobbyist, was previously the Congressman from MS-01.  Former Governor Ronnie Musgrove (D) has kept it close in the polls until recently.  As with Kentucky, the latest two polls now show Wicker above 50%.

Democratic safe seats

Arkansas (Mark Pryor)

Delaware (Joe Biden)

Illinois (Dick Durbin)

Iowa (Tom Harkin)

Louisiana (Mary Landrieu)

Massachusetts (John Kerry)

Michigan (Carl Levin)

Montana (Max Baucus)

New Jersey (Frank Lautenberg)

Rhode Island (Jack Reed)

South Dakota (Tim Johnson)

West Virginia (Jay Rockefeller)

Republican safe seats

Alabama (Jeff Sessions)

Idaho (Jim Risch)

Kansas (Pat Roberts)

Maine (Susan Collins)

Mississippi (Thad Cochran)

Nebraska (Mike Johanns)

Oklahoma (James Inhofe)

South Carolina (Lindsey Graham)

Tennessee (Lamar Alexander)

Texas (John Cornyn)

Wyoming (Michael Enzi)

Wyoming (John Barrasso)

So there you have it, my final rankings for the 2008 Senate races, as they stand with less than 24 hours to go.  We’ll see what happens tomorrow.

Just a reminder — tonight is your last chance to enter SSP’s prediction contest. We’ll be cutting off all entries at midnight Eastern tonight, so get cracking. (And you also have a few hours left if you wish to revise your earlier predictions.)

Babka is on the line here, people!

UPDATE (David): The contest closes in three hours! Get your last-minute predictions (or tweaks) in now!

Also, Daily Kos is having a predictions contest, too. Win both and you can eat delicious chocolate babka while surfing the net on your new MacBook!

LATE UPDATE: It’s done! No more entries will be accepted.

Here goes. Just beacuse.

Presidential Election:



Electoral Votes: Barack Obama 364, John McCain 174

Popular Vote: Obama +6.9

McCain Pickups: None



Obama Pickups: Iowa, New Mexico, Colorado, Nevada, Missouri, Ohio, Virgina, North Carolina and Florida

I’m a little unsure about North Carolina and Missouri but I’m going to call them for Barack. I think he’ll come up just short in Indiana, Montana and Georgia.

Gubernatorial Elections:

Republican Pickups: None

Democratic Pickups: Missouri

Not much to see. I think we’ll hold in NC and WA.

Senate Elections:

Republican Pickups: None



Democratic Pickups: Virgina, New Mexico, Colorado, New Hampshire, Alaska, Oregon, North Carolina, Minnesota

And I also predict the Georgia Senate race will go into a runoff and Jim Martin will win it but I’ll have final predictions closer to that election.

House Elections:

Republican Pickups: FL-16, TX-22, PA-11

Democratic Pickups: NY-13, AZ-01, VA-11, NY-25, AK-AL, CO-04, FL-24, IL-11, MI-09, MI-07, NY-29, OH-16, OH-15, NC-08, NM-01, NM-02, CA-04, CT-04, FL-08, FL-25, ID-01, IL-10, IN-03, LA-04, MD-01, MN-03, MN-06, MO-09, NJ-03, NJ-07, NV-03, OH-01, PA-03, WA-08, AL-02, AZ-03, OH-02, VA-02, VA-05.

Net Democratic Gain: +36

Maybe a little optimistic. But I think that’s going to be pretty close.

This does not look good.

SurveyUSA for Roll Call (10/30-11/2, likely voters):

Paul Kanjorski (D-inc): 45

Lou Barletta (R): 51

(MoE: ±4%)

The top of the ticket isn’t a problem for Kanjorski here — Obama is leading McCain by 53-43 in this CD (a better margin than Kerry’s 6-point win here in 2004).

While 2006 was a bloodless year for Democrats, 2008 doesn’t look quite as clean — Mahoney is a certain goner, and the GOP could pick up another couple of seats if they’re lucky, including this one. Kanjo has simply run a tired campaign that embodied politics as usual. He is poised to be the rare Dem victim of the “change” mantra tomorrow.

Hays Research Group (11/2, likely voters):

Mark Begich (D): 49

Ted Stevens (R-inc): 42

Other: 2

(MoE: ±4.9%)

And for the at-large House race:

Ethan Berkowitz (D): 49

Don Young (R-inc): 43

Other: 1

(MoE: ±4.9%)

Sounds about right to me. The fact that these two crumb-bums (Young and Stevens) are polling even in the low 40s is a testament to just how crusty of a GOP-loving state Alaska is.

But here’s a fun bonus finding: the McCain/Palin ticket leads Obama/Biden by only 48-45 according to this poll. Amusing!

PPP (10/31-11/2, likely voters, 10/25-26 in parens):

Bev Perdue (D): 49 (47)

Pat McCrory (R): 48 (44)

Michael Munger (L): 2 (5)

(MoE: ±2.1%)

The same North Carolina PPP sample that showed Kay Hagan administering the coup de grace to Elizabeth Dole (and a neck-and-neck race in the NC presidential race) also includes the governor’s race and the rest of the Council of State. Perdue has led in most polls for the last few weeks, but this final poll sees a closer margin as undecideds finally commit; both candidates’ numbers have gone up, but McCrory has gained faster (seemingly helped along by a plunge in Libertarian Michael Munger’s support). With the Washington governor’s race close but seemingly frozen in place, this will be the gubernatorial race to watch tomorrow.

Five Council of State races are also polled; it’s a mixed bag, although with a possible pickup at Auditor:

Lt. Governor: Walter Dalton (D) 49, Robert Pittenger (R) 41

Insurance Comm.: Wayne Goodwin (D) 47, John Odom (R) 41

Auditor: Beth Wood (D) 48, Leslie Merritt (R-inc) 46

Agriculture Comm.: Steve Troxler (R-inc) 51, Ronnie Ansley (D) 43

Labor Comm.: Cherie Berry (R-inc) 51, Mary Fant Donnan (D) 44

Univ. of Washington (10/27-30, registered voters, 10/18-26 in parens):

Chris Gregoire (D-inc): 50 (51)

Dino Rossi (R): 48 (45)

(MoE: ±5%)

This, my friends, is change you can xerox. University of Washington gets the last word in polling the Washington governor’s race, and rather than make a bold statement like the 6-point lead they saw several weeks ago, they’ve settled on the exact same 50-48 result that SurveyUSA and Rasmussen reported last week. (Strategic Vision, always the unpredictable rogues, went with 49-47 instead.) Unsurprisingly, the final Pollster composite for this race is 50-48.

Ordinarily, a 2-point lead going into election day would be ominous, but given how flat the trendlines have been all year and how dug-in voters’ heels seem to be, Gregoire can probably start breathing a little easier. As a bonus, Obama leads McCain 51-39 in the same sample.  

PPP (10/31-11/2, likely voters, no trendlines):

Jim Martin (D): 46

Saxby Chambliss (R-inc): 48

Allen Buckley (L): 4

(MoE: ±2.8%)

SurveyUSA for WMAZ (10/30-11/1, likely voters, 10/11-12 in parens):

Jim Martin (D): 44 (43)

Saxby Chambliss (R-inc): 48 (46)

Allen Buckley (L): 5 (6)

(MoE: ±3.8%)

Two new polls of the Georgia senate race seem to confirm that, unless something weird happens, neither candidate is going to clear the 50% mark and we’ll be faced with a December runoff. The race has become remarkably stable in the last few weeks, with Martin never leading but almost always within a few points.

There’s a fierce race at the top of the ticket, too; PPP’s first poll of Georgia also finds Obama trailing only 50-48 (with Barr picking up a measly 2%), but with Obama leading 52-47 among early voters. SurveyUSA finds McCain up 52-45.

SurveyUSA (10/30-11/2, likely voters, 10/6-7 in parens):

Tom Perriello (D): 47 (42)

Virgil Goode (R-inc): 50 (55)

Undecided: 3 (3)

(MoE: ±4%)

Whoa. Tom Perriello has made some amazing strides since August, when a previous SUSA poll showed him trailing by a brutal 64-30 margin. The DCCC has come in here with over $700K of mostly unanswered expenditures in support of Perriello, and it looks like they’ve pushed this district within reach.

Perriello has built an impressive 58-35 edge among early voters, but unfortunately, that’s only 10% of the sample. A lot will come down to election day turnout here. SUSA pegs the black vote at 22%, which is in line with the most recent census figures, but if African-Americans turn out with even greater force, that might tip the scales here.