Swing State Project

Time to check in on the state legislatures one more time before the election (I did a more detailed summary two weeks ago).

This week, the New York Times and the AP both had long pieces that provide good overviews of where the competitive chambers are. Interestingly, both pieces stopped to dwell on the Maine Senate, where, although Obama is poised to dominate at the top of the ticket, Democratic control (by a current 18-17 margin) could be lost. The whole chamber turns on one Dem-held open seat in York County, and public anger over a new alcoholic beverage tax. (Although doesn’t everyone in that part of the state just go get their licka in New Hampshire?)

The biggest prize, and the only state where we’ve seen actual public polling of legislative races, is still the New York Senate. There aren’t any more polls to report here, but one story of note is that Dennis Delano, the one Republican to present a serious challenge to any Democratic-held senate seat, is apparently running for office in violation of the Hatch Act, a federal law that prohibits municipal employees from running for partisan office (in this case, Delano is currently suspended from the Buffalo PD, but still receiving pay).

Our friends at the Burnt Orange Report have been closely following the Texas House race, which has provided the Democrats with an outside shot of flipping the chamber (Dems are currently down 79-71). They previously highlighted four GOP-held seats that were Lean Dem or Tossup, giving Democrats a route to a tied chamber. Recently, they upgraded one other race to Tossup: Carol Kent vs. Rep. Tony Goolsby in HD-102 in north Dallas. Although retaking the Texas House has been considered a two-cycle project, a table-running here would get it done this year. They also listed a number of Lean Republican seats that could flip with a strong-enough gale (HD-55, HD-101, HD-133, and Sherrie Matula in HD-129, whom I know has a few boosters at this site).

The Ballot Box blog at Governing Magazine has been profiling various legislatures in the past few months, and recently featured a few more, including the Ohio House. This is another one that initially seemed like a two-cycle project needing to be accomplished before 2010 redistricting, but this article seems surprisingly sanguine on a Democratic takeover, giving that a 50-50 shot. (Republicans currently control it 53-46, so four seats need to flip.) Two factors are seen at work: the Democrats’ overall advantages in the ground game here, and the disproportionate impact of term limits on the Republicans, leaving 20 GOP seats open to only 6 Democratic seats open, with particularly strong possibilities in the Democratic-trending Columbus area.

They also profile the Michigan House, which Democrats currently control by a narrow 58-52 margin. The Republicans had early hopes to flip it, what with the unpopular Granholm administration and recall efforts against some representatives including Speaker Andy Dillon. However, the same dynamic in Ohio is playing out in Michigan, on perhaps an even bigger scale: Republicans are hurt by term limits, with 29 GOP open seats compared to 16 Democratic vacancies. And the GOP is reeling from the McCain campaign’s abandonment of the state, leaving downballot operations in a vacuum.

Got any other information or predictions to share about a state legislature near you? Please chip in in the comments.

Rasmussen (10/28, likely voters, 10/22 in parens):

Al Franken (DFL): 39 (41)

Norm Coleman (R-inc): 43 (37)

Dean Barkley (I): 14 (17)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

So where did Coleman get all this mojo from? Rasmussen speculates that a strong recent debate performance, coupled with the Strib’s endorsement, has given the incumbent the upper hand.

Rasmussen isn’t my favorite pollster (although I do appreciate just how damned prolific they are), so I’d like to see what the other polling orgs have to say about the state of this race. In any case, this still feels very much like a tossup.

Progressive Democrat gets endorsement from newspapers distributed throughout his district:

Coastal Empire News, publishers of Savannah Daily News, The Business Report & Journal and Coastal Family Magazine, is endorsing Savannah’s Bill Gillespie (D) for Congress to represent the 1st Congressional District over incumbent Jack Kingston (R).

Savannahian Bill Gillespie is a highly educated, fiscally conservative Democrat, a war hero of the Iraq War, a recipient of the Bronze Star and a candidate with a vision of how to bring jobs back to the 1st District in manufacturing, alternative energy and the timber industry.

And as for Jack “flag pin” Kingston:

It is painful to no longer endorse our friend, Jack Kingston. Many of us know Jack and his family personally and cherish their friendship and their public service. Jack Kingston is a good man, personally, but he has never had a viable or credible Democratic opponent to truly consider.

And these times force us to step back, and take a hard look at his actual voting record on critical issues including fighting all measures to set a timeline to get out of Iraq, his failure to fight runaway Federal spending as a member of the House Appropriations committee that develops the budget, his leadership in defense of Tom Delay and President Bush as well as Republican party smear campaigns this election cycle, and his failure to file his personal financial disclosure information due last May 15 even though he was up for re-election. These votes and others lead us to believe that it is time for a change in 1st District representation.

Frankly, Jack began to lose our support last Feb. 27 when he appeared on the Dan Abrams show and said it was okay to “question Sen. Barack Obama’s patriotism because he doesn’t regularly wear an American flag lapel pin.”

Problem was, sitting there on the TV set with the cameras rolling, Jack wasn’t wearing a flag pin. These types of smear tactics are repugnant and demean elected officials in an era when voters are begging for straight talk on the issues versus old-style personal attack politics.

Yet, he continues to use such tactics, seeking to smear his opponent Bill Gillespie in this race, accusing him of lying about his educational degrees and other achievements, despite two news organizations having confirmed that Gillespie’s resumé is accurate.

Much more in the endorsement, con Kingston and pro Gillespie. I thought I’d written a damning diary about Slappy and a glowing recommendation of Bill, but these guys have got me beat!

Concluding statement:

Bill Gillespie is a credible candidate and a man in touch with the needs of the military establishment in our region, which is a critical component of our local business economy.

To achieve a change, we must change.

All that and Bill Gillespie can fly!

Oh yeah: you can, too.

The latest AP-GfK Battleground State Poll also includes numbers from four Senate contests (10/22-26, likely voters), and the numbers are looking pretty good all-around for the Democrats:

• CO-Sen: Udall 48%, Schaffer 36%
• NH-Sen: Shaheen 47%, Sununu 41%
• NC-Sen: Hagan 47%, Dole 43%
• VA-Sen: Warner 58%, Gilmore 32%

(Hat-tip to reader AT)

The Swing State Project is changing its ratings on seven House races:

• CO-04 (Musgrave): Tossup to Lean D
• MD-01 (Open): Lean R to Tossup
• MI-09 (Knollenberg): Tossup to Lean D
• NY-29 (Kuhl): Tossup to Lean D
• VA-05 (Goode): Likely R to Lean R
• WV-02 (Capito): Likely R to Lean R
• WY-AL (Open): Likely R to Lean R

We’re also adding GA-13 to our “Races to Watch” list. Look for write-ups to follow soon, and possibly more ratings updates in the coming days. Our full ratings chart is available here.

Research 2000 for WCAX-TV (10/24-26, likely voters, 9/11-14 in parens):

Gaye Symington (D): 24 (33)

Jim Douglas (R-inc): 47 (48)

Anthony Pollina (I): 23 (7)

(n = 400)

I was just going to pop this into Quick Hits, seeing as how off-the-radar the Vermont gubernatorial race is, but this is such a complicated situation that it needs some extended explanation. Jim Douglas, a very moderate Republican, has been governor of Vermont for six years, since Howard Dean left office. Vermont is one of only two states (with New Hampshire) that elects a governor every two years… and Vermont is alone in its other weird quirk: if no one gets over 50%, the race gets thrown into the state legislature. In fact, that’s how Douglas got into office in 2002: he won 45-42, with 13 going to third parties.

We may be looking at the same scenario this year; there have been few polls of this race, but they all place Douglas slightly below 50. Like 2002, there’s a strong third-party presence this year, this time in the form of Anthony Pollina, who has run for statewide office several times on the Progressive Party line (although this time he’s running as an independent).

Pollina has secured a number of endorsements (AFL-CIO, Vermont Education Association) that normally go to Democrats, and Vermont House Speaker Gaye Symington has stumbled in public appearances, which explains Pollina’s surge in the polls; if his trajectory continues, he’ll wind up finishing second.

So what happens if this winds up in the hands of the legislature? Last time in 2002, the legislature installed Douglas, who got the plurality of voters. They’re under no obligation to do so, though, and the Vermont legislature is now more thoroughly Democratically-controlled than 2002 (93-49-8 in the House, and 23-7 in the Senate)… so it’s possible that even if Douglas wins the plurality (as he certainly looks likely to do), he might not get chosen based on a partisan vote. But if Symington finishes third, could the legislative Dems bring themselves to install her? Could Pollina play kingmaker by throwing his support… or could he even wind up as the dark-horse pick? This one will be interesting to watch.

UPDATE: Although the possibility of someone other than Douglas winning at the ballot box is nil, the possibility of a non-Douglas outcome at the legislative level has encouraged us to move this race to “Likely Republican.”

Better later than never, for MI-08 Democratic challenger Bob Alexander. Although the DCCC focused early on races in the neighboring 7th and 9th Districts, Alexander’s shoestring operation is going great guns in the home stretch.

Two polls have confirmed that the race is basically a dead heat, and Rogers’ own polling data must confirm this, since the MI GOP has mounted two negative attacks on Alexander in the past 10 days. The first volley came in the form of a telephone push poll, the second was a mailer focusing on bogus claims that Alexander wanted to provide national health care to 900 illegal aliens. These are clearly the defensive maneuvers of a worried incumbent.

After a long, tightly-budgeted campaign, contributions are coming in for Alexander, but it’s late in the game. A TV ad is ready to go, and an infusion of cash would let Alexander make media buys to increase his name recognition in a district that the incumbent gerrymandered to be heavily Republican. Alexander can absolutely win this race; it’s just a question of whether the cash comes in time.

Rasmussen (10/28, likely voters, 10/6 in parens):

Mark Begich (D): 52 (48)

Ted Stevens (R-inc): 44 (49)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

Here it is: the first post-conviction poll of Alaska shows Stevens trailing Begich by 8 points. It’s a testament to Stevens’ strong popularity (and the redness of Alaska) that a man on his way to jail is still taking a share of the vote that large.

The following independent expenditures were filed by the DCCC and the NRCC in the last 48 hours:

Now, uh, I suspect that this post will be met with “scattered boos” once again, but keep in mind that the DCCC isn’t done yet — they will most likely be filing more reports tomorrow evening. (For instance, they have new ads up in WV-02 and VA-02.) Maybe we’ll see a surprise or two — or maybe not.

SurveyUSA (10/26-27, likely voters, 10/6-7 in parens):

Ashwin Madia (D): 44 (46)

Erik Paulsen (R-inc): 45 (43)

Other: 9 (n/a)

(MoE: ±3.9%)

Paulsen takes the slimmest of leads in SurveyUSA’s latest Minnesota poll. This seems to run counter to the general sense that Madia has been pulling away from Paulsen in recent days. Of course, like a lot of SUSA polls from Minnesota, there are weird things at work in the crosstabs. For instance, Paulsen takes a 44-41 lead among 18 to 34 year-olds (a group where Madia had held a 52-42 lead earlier in the month).

It seems that the kids just can’t get enough of the GOP in Minnesota — the kids who are square enough to answer their landline and talk to a robot pollster, at least.

SUSA has produced some pretty favorable polls for Republicans this year in Minnesota in both the Presidential and Senate contests, so I’ll take this one with a grain of salt.