Swing State Project

The campaign schedule has been pretty intense over the last week and will continue to be so until the BIG day on Tuesday, November 4th.   I want to congratulate everyone for putting so much effort into this year’s election, not just for an individual campaign, but for the entire Democratic ticket.  I’ve seen people in every community throughout the 5th district working to make sure the message is getting out.  

I want to remind everyone it is important that we finish strong.   Don’t take anything for granted, ignore the polls and work like the polls show our candidates 5 points down.  Remember, while all indications show Barack Obama will be our next president, if we believe the polls, Al Gore would be concluding his second term or we would be working to re-elect President John Kerry right now.

On a personal note specifically dealing with our campaign for the United State Congress, I want to assure everyone that I am working as hard as I can heading into the final week of the campaign.   Back in January when Kelly and I decided we would enter the race we knew that 2008 would be a difficult year for our family.  We’ve missed opportunities to do things as a family but we knew solving the problems besieging our nation required a sacrifice.  What is encouraging is watching the work everyone is doing and seeing people giving of their time and donating their personal skills to bring a positive result on November 4th.

For the final week, I ask that everyone keep in mind what the real goal is.  The real goal isn’t just to win an election, what we are working for in 2008 is to take back our future.   I’ve been stressing to voters the last couple of weeks to realize over the last 8 years poor decisions in Washington have put the future for our children and grandchildren in jeopardy.  The one issue more apparent than any other is the outrageous deficit and debt that George W. Bush will leave behind when he moves out of the White House in January.

My Republican opponent constantly says the “Bush tax cuts are our tax cuts” when the real truth is the Bush debt is our debt.  The only way we are going to get our future back is by voting for the right people on November 4th who will make the tough decisions to put our country back in order.   It all starts with making our federal government fiscally strong so we can invest in our nation and make the lives of all our citizens better.   Sacrifice will be necessary, but in the end our country will be better.

A Very Important Endorsement:

I am please to announce that my candidacy has received the endorsement of the Veterans and Military Families for Progress.  In the letter informing our campaign of the endorsement the organization stated “Veterans and Military Families for Progress has chosen to endorse your campaign.  We do this in recognition of your support of veteran, active duty, guard, reserve, and military family issues.  We hope that in some way our endorsement provides you an electoral advantage and ultimately ensures your election to the Pennsylvania Fifth Congressional District seat”.

This is a very important endorsement to receive from a prestigious organization that is dedicated to supporting the issues important of the active military and their families along with our veterans.  This is an endorsement our campaign can be very proud to receive.

Campaign Commercial:

We are getting our message of fiscal responsibility out to the people of this district.  We have a plan to right the ship and move in a new direction that includes balancing the budget, paying down the debt and investing here at home.  

We can’t afford any more of the “borrow and spend” mentality that has gotten us in this situation.  This debt is a national security issue and we intend to confront it with the experience and even-handedness it requires.

Review of the Past Week on the Campaign Trail:

I participated in 4 more candidate debates this week.  We started off Monday evening with a 2 hour debate from Mansfield University in Tioga County that was broadcast live on PCN.   Tuesday and Wednesday brought debates in smaller venues with stop in Bellefonte on Tuesday and an event on Wednesday in Lewistown.   On Thursday all 3 candidates participated in a live 1 hour debate broadcast live on WPSU-TV.

The one thing I’ve taken out of all these debates that I’ve participated in, some just with my Republican opponent and others that also included the Libertarian candidate, is I am on the right side of the issues that affect the majority of the people in the 5th district.  When you list off the issues we are regularly asked about in the debates — Fiscal Responsibility, Health Care Reform, Social Security, Public Education Policy, Energy Policy and the Iraq War, the stances I take which mostly mirrors the rest of the Democratic Party platform are in line with what I am hearing from voters in the 5th district.   We won’t know until next week if what I’m saying is really resonating with the voters in the 5th district but I feel confident that our message is strong and voters are listening.  

Saturday finished the week with a strong day of campaigning.  I started out the day at 1 PM in Emporium, Cameron County for the fall Democratic luncheon.   I then made a 70 mile dash to Lock Haven to attend a 3 PM GOTV rally headlined by Gov. Ed Rendell.   I shared the stage with Rep. Mike Hanna, Obama campaign rep. Jayson Harpster, Clinton County Commissioners Joel Long and Adam Coleman, Lock Haven Mayor Rick Vilello and Clinton County Democratic Chairman Dave Wallace.   Then it was on to a 5 PM appearance in Boalsburg at the Centre County Democratic Fall banquet with Gov. Rendell and all the Democratic candidates representing Centre County.  The long day ended with a final stop after 7 PM in Lewistown for the Mifflin County Democratic Fall banquet.  

Schedule for Upcoming Week:

Monday — 6 PM —  Meeting with Federal Credit Union Members — Hampton Inn DuBois

Tuesday  — 8 AM — Radio Interview WRSC

Tuesday — 9:30 AM — Tour of AccuWeather

Tuesday — 6:30 PM — Debate in New Bethlehem / Clarion County sponsored by League of Women Voters

Wednesday — 7 PM — Penn State Political Science Debate — West Hall Commons Building — Main Campus

Thursday — 8 AM — Radio Interview — DuBois  

Thursday — 7 PM — WPSU Radio Debate

Friday — 8 AM — Radio Interview with Jerry Fisher — State College

Saturday — Time TBD — GOTV Rally in Clarion County

Sunday — Time TBD — GOTV Rally in State College

FUNDRAISING REMINDER — Keep talking with people about the 5,000 Friends to Flip the Fifth project. We can win the 5th District Congressional District for the first time in 32 years but we need to be organizing our forces heading into the final weeks. The only way to turn this country around is to send people to Washington who will make the tough decisions. The choice in the 5th district is clear. My opponent regularly states that he supports the fiscal policies of the Bush administration AKA “the Bush tax cuts” and will continue them — More of the Same. While I continue to stress that we must balance the budget, built a surplus and pay down the debt.

In order to get the message out to voters we will need to advertise which costs money. Please contact your family and friends and urge them to financially support our campaign as we move into the final weeks. Donations can be made online through www.actblue.com or by direct mail to McCracken for Congress, PO Box 332, Clearfield PA 16830.

Mark B. McCracken

Your Candidate For Congress

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This diary is cross-posted at McCracken’s campaign blog, PA’s Blue Fifth

Mark McCracken for Congress

ActBlue page

Today, the Zeitz for Congress campaign unveiled a new radio advertisement titled “Eight Nights.” The ad draws attention to Chris Smith’s failure to live in New Jersey, having spent only eight nights in the state during 2007, and the recent revelation that Smith received nearly $80,000 in tuition breaks reserved only for official Virginia residents.

You can listen to the ad here.

“After twenty-eight years in Congress, Chris Smith has become a creature of Washington. The voters I speak with are shocked and outraged when they learn Chris Smith refuses to live in New Jersey and does not pay our high property taxes. For many of them, learning Smith receives in-state tuition discounts in Virginia is the final straw,” said Josh Zeitz. “It’s not too much to ask that our representative in Congress actually lives in New Jersey.”

Key Facts:

   * Chris Smith spent only eight days in 2007. [PolitickerNJ 4/28/08]

    * Chris Smith is the only member of the New Jersey delegation to not own a home in New Jersey. [PolitickerNJ 4/28/08] He’s saved nearly $60,000 in property taxes by living in Virginia.

    * Chris Smith receives in-state tuition benefits reserved only for official Virginia residents. [Politico 10/20/08]

Josh needs your help to defeat Chris Smith. Please consider volunteering as well as contributing to the campaign. To put it bluntly, the more money we can raise the more play this ad gets on the radio, and the more undecided voters we can reach. We also need volunteers to help get out the vote. To volunteer contact ian_at_joshzeitz_dot_com.

A Zoogby International poll (the phone variety, NOT the wacky internet poll) for the Houston Chronicle( http://www.chron.com/disp/stor… ) Shows Lampson 17 points down, but Culberson only 7 points above Skelly.  

It should be noted that this same poll showed massive movements to the Democrats at all levels in Harris County (a major part of Lampsons district), so Lampson’s showing is that much more ominous.

From the St. Cloud Times:

U.S. Rep. Michele Bachmann wrote a letter last year recommending a federal pardon for a major campaign contributor who was once convicted of felony money laundering, firearm and drug charges on the basis he had reformed.

This month, she withdrew that recommendation on behalf of Frank E. Vennes Jr., eight days after the FBI searched his Shorewood home and office and confiscated documents, money, art, coins and jewels that agents think may be related to a $3 billion investment fraud scheme in which Minnesota business mogul Tom Petters has been charged.

And please, don’t stop talking, Michele:

In the last week, Bachmann also has said numerous times that relationships and advisers of candidates for public office such as Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama are “fair game” for public scrutiny, as they may affect the candidates’ views and beliefs.

“The media needs to do their job in vetting,” she said following a St. Cloud Rotary Club luncheon last week. “Those associations are certainly fair game and something the media brings up.”

Is Elwyn Tinklenberg the luckiest Democratic candidate of the year?

(Hat-tip: His Joshness)

Check out the Quick Hits in the top-right corner: They now have comments enabled. Now, clicking on a Quick Hit will take you directly to a page for that QH alone, where you should see a “Post a Comment” link at the bottom. Hard-refresh your browser if you don’t see the changes.

A big thank you to Paul Preston (aka “soapy”) of SoapBlox for installing this, and to Open Left for helping to develop this feature.

So go ahead and give it a whirl!

Research 2000 for Daily Kos (10/20-22, likely voters):

Larry Joe Doherty (D): 42

Mike McCaul (R): 46

(MoE: ±5%)

Texas is a long-term project for the Democrats, and districts like TX-10 are leading the way: it’s one of the fastest-growing districts in the country, and most of the growth is non-white. If this poll is any indication, though, we might be on the verge of seeing some good results right away.

Mike McCaul was already publicly sweating the early voting patterns in Harris and Travis Counties (this R+13 district stretches wormlike across hundreds of miles to link Houston and Austin suburbs). This poll can’t be helping him feel any better, as it’s slightly better than recent Doherty internals. Between McCaul never having faced a full-on challenge before, Doherty’s money and name recognition (he’s a former TV judge), changes in the district, and the size of the Dem wave (McCain leads only 48-41 in the district, down from Bush’s 62-38 edge), here’s one more upset waiting to happen.

Research 2000 for Daily Kos (10/20-22, likely voters,9/23-25 in parentheses):

Charlie Brown (D): 48 (46)

Tom McClintock (R): 42 (41)

(MoE: ±5%)

Good grief! That blockhead Tom McClintock was supposed to be a formidable opponent for Charlie Brown in the open seat race in CA-04, to replace Abramoff-tainted retiree John Doolittle… so what happened? ‘Conservative icon’ McClintock has not only trailed by substantial margins in both public polls of this race (both from R2K), but now he’s out of cash and has stopped TV advertising. Despite the fact that this Sacramento suburbs-based district is a dark red R+11, Brown may actually succeed in kicking McClintock’s football.

Part of the problem seems to be that everyone has already heard of McClintock, and nobody seems to like him: his favorable/unfavorable rating in this sample is 44/42 (compared with Brown’s 49/29). In addition, the big blue wave seems to be sweeping in at all levels of this district: McCain leads Obama only 50-40 (compared with a 61-37 Bush edge in 2004). Perhaps most encouragingly, Brown leads early voters by a yawning gulf: 56-38.

A roundup of all the independent expenditures made by the DCCC and NRCC in the last seven days:

More details on these and other expenditures are available at SSP’s Independent Expenditure Tracker.

UPDATE: In the comments, a former DCCC staffer weighs in to rebut criticisms of the party’s IE spending. Worth a read.

Research 2000 for Daily Kos (10/20-22, likely voters):

Frank Kratovil (D): 40

Andy Harris (R): 44

(MoE: ±5%)

Ordinarily, you wouldn’t expect a Democrat to be within close range in an R+10, culturally conservative district like this one. However, Frank Kratovil has a number of things going for him. One, it’s an open-ish seat, where beloved moderate incumbent Wayne Gilchrest was defeated in the GOP primary by Club for Growth nutcase Andy Harris… and Gilchrest gave his endorsement to Kratovil. And also, this is a case (like the Staten Island/Brooklyn split in NY-13) where geography plays a big role in a provincial district: Kratovil is a state’s attorney from the Eastern Shore, where the bulk of the district’s population lives, and Harris is a state senator from Baltimore County, a part of the state that’s not too popular on the Eastern Shore.

This appears to be the first public poll of the race, but Kratovil’s internal polls have shown him steadily gaining ground, culminating in a 2-point lead in an internal from several weeks ago. Harris still has built-in advantages in this conservative district (although the same sample finds McCain leading Obama only 47-43, so this district may not be R+10 much longer), but the polls suggest this may be one of our closest races next week.

Research 2000 for Daily Kos (10/20-22, likely voters):

Dina Titus (D): 47

Jon Porter (R-inc): 45

(MoE: ±5%)

The numbers have bounced around quite a bit in this race in this swing district in the Las Vegas suburbs, ranging from a recent Mason-Dixon poll giving a 3-point edge to Porter to a Titus internal giving her a 9-point lead. Research 2000’s first poll of this race kind of splits the difference, finding Titus edging Porter by 2.

This is a district that has changed a lot in terms of registration numbers (moving from about even in ’06 to a 39,000 Dem edge now) and demographics, even since 2006 when Porter narrowly beat Harry Reid staffer Tessa Hafen and Titus narrowly won the district in her unsuccessful governor’s race. Also heartening are the early voting numbers: Titus is up 56-45 among early voters… and the presidential numbers, with Obama leading McCain in this D+1 district 48-44.