Swing State Project

‘Tis the season to support Jim Himes, share a drink with you fellow Democrats, and show off your mad trivia skillz.

What: That’s right.  It’s time for another end of quarter blograiser.  You don’t have to be a trivia whiz – just have a good sense of humor, an interest in history, politics, or current events, and a strong desire to work for better leadership in Washington by electing Jim Himes to Congress.

Our September event was attended by over 60 people and raised over $4500 for the the Himes campaign.  Relive the magic at the official liveblog thread, including a play by play of the game and plenty of pictures.

When: Saturday December 15 from 7 to 10PM

Where:

Murphy’s Law

239 Fairfield Ave

Bridgeport, CT 06604

(203) 366-5297

Suggested Minimum Contribution $25

RSVP Here

Rock Star Democratic co-host:

State Rep. Gerry Fox

Democratic co-hosts:

Jim Himes

State Rep. Tom Drew

State Rep. Bruce Morris

State Rep. Chris Perone

State Rep. Jim Shapiro

State Rep. William Tong

Blogger co-hosts:

Gabe:: CT Local Politics & The Left Coaster

Jon Kantrowitz:: MyLeftNutmeg

Melissa Ryan:: CT Local Politics & MyDD

Spazeboy:: Spazeboy

Pub Quiz will begin promptly at 7:30 and will consist of four rounds of questions.

Can’t attend?  Be a virtual participant.  Follow the action via liveblog on MyLeftNutmeg.

(cross posted from daily Kos)

What do a 19th century rabbi and a 21st century congressional candidate have in common?  They both exemplify the true meaning of progressivism.

Israel Salanter was a 19th century rabbi

Sam Bennett is a woman running for Congress

more below the fold

The other night (at daily Kos), I wrote a diary on Republican representatives in Democratic districts and, while researching it, ran across Sam Bennett who is running for congress in PA-15.  She says, on her site

The Bush Administration seems to have things exactly backwards. Where government should be robust – protecting and caring for its citizens – they have made it weak. Where government should tread lightly, they have made it overbearing.

A long time ago, I wrote a diary  called The 25 best things ever said by anyoneMy number 1 was from [Rabbi Israel Salanter:

Most men worry about their own bellies, and other people’s souls, when we all ought to be worried about our own souls, and other people’s bellies

Aren’t those two quotes perfect?

Sam Bennett’s quote is 35 words.  Do they not sum up what is wrong?

Salanter’s quote is 26 words.  Do they not generalize that concern for the ages?

Are we progressives?

My soul is my business, thank you, and I would like the government not to tell me how to live my life – whom to worship (or how, or when, or if), or whom to love (male or female).  But everyone’s belly is everyone’s business, and, in this 21st century world, the government must help.  We no longer live, most of us, in small villages where everyone knows everyone.  We live in anonymous megalopolises.  

Crossposted at OhioDailyBlog. Jeff did all of the number crunching.

Robin Weirauch (D-Napoleon) pulled in a remarkable $138,152.51, leaving her with $66,587.05 cash-on-hand as of 11/21. She received $38,002.51 from individuals, $1,400.00 from political party committees, and $98,750.00 from PACs. Included are $5,000 from Emily’s List and $2,000 each from committees affiliated with Rep. Rahm Emmanual (D-IL), Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D-CA), Rep. Steny Hoyer (D-MD), Rep. Marcy Kaptur (D-Toledo), Rep. Tim Ryan (D-Niles), and Rep. Stephanie Tubbs Jones (D-Cleveland). She also recived funds from various Congressional leadership PACS, including $5,000 from Rep. Kaptur’s PAC. Weirauch also got over $34,000 from union PACs.

But the big news today is the incredible results on ActBlue. General Wesley Clark endorsed Robin today and as of this moment, she has gained $9,638.01 in contributions today (AFTER the closing deadline for the FEC filing.)

Bob Latta (R-Bowling Green) brought in much more than Weirauch.. He reported raising $246,173.98 in contributions, and he loaned himself $50,000, leaving him with $132,488.78 in the bank. Latta received $128,367.38 in contributions from individuals and $117, 806.60 from PACs. Included are $20,000 from the National Republican Congressional Committee, $2,300 from Rep. Jim Jordan (R-Urbana), and $2,000 each from Rep. Deborah Schmidt (R-Upper Arlington) and Rep. Jean Schmidt (R-Loveland). Of course, we knew that the forces of wealth and power would flock to get in some “play to pay” action with Latta, and they did.

Two observations:

This remains a VERY difficult situation for a Democrat. This District was built precinct by precinct to protect it’s former “do nothing” reactionary representative. Latta enjoys (undeserved) name recognition in Wood County which tends to negate Weirauch’s strength here.

But, the ODP, the DCCC and the DNC ARE fully engaged in this campaign. They are providing people, money and resources to the Weirauch campaign.

This all leads up to a series of the campaign stops coming up all day this Saturday with Governor Strickland.

This Saturday is “(D)” Day for OH-05.

When you’re as hard-pressed for cash as the NRCC is, I’m sure that the last thing you want to do is dump money that you don’t have into defending two deeply red districts in off-year special elections.  But the NRCC is doing just that — spending precious cash to defend the seats of the late Reps. Paul Gillmor (OH-05) and Jo Ann Davis (VA-01).

As a refresher, let’s take a look at how red these districts really are.  OH-05 has a PVI of R+10.1, and VA-01 sits at R+8.9.  To put it another way, these districts supported Bush by 21 and 22-point margins in 2004.  On any given day, these districts should be rock solid turf for the GOP.

But, as Roll Call reports, the NRCC is taking nothing for granted, making some independent expenditures against VA-01 Dem nominee and Iraq vet Phil Forgit on behalf of state Delegate Rob Wittman, the GOP candidate:

NRCC officials refused to comment about the committee’s strategy in the special election.

But the committee’s independent expenditure arm this week spent almost $8,000 to produce an ad attacking Forgit that hasn’t yet aired, bringing its total expenditures for anti-Forgit activity to almost $39,000. The NRCC also has spent about $3,100 on phone banks to help Wittman.

As Roll Call implies, that expenditure will balloon very shortly, as the NRCC buys the necessary ad time to put their Forgit attack ad on the air.

We can also expect some NRCC-funded fireworks in Ohio’s 5th district, where Republicans have spent over $9000 for the production of another ad (this one positive in tone, apparently) in support of Republican Bob Latta.  Latta, as you may recall, won a bruising primary against state Sen. Steve Buehrer earlier this month.

Is the NRCC really sweating over the prospect of losing these districts?  It would be a shocker for either of these races to end up in the Dem column, but perhaps Republicans are intent on playing it safe, because they can’t afford not to.

Now that I’ve found this site, I have a place for my geeky weirdness statistical political self!

I am modeling, below, potential gains in the Senate.  What I do is assign each race a probability of switching.  Then I simulate the probabilities using R, and run  it 1000 times.  

Quick results:

Most likely result: Gain of 5 or 6 seats (23.9% chance of each).  

Chance of gaining at least 1 seat: 99.8%

                 at least 2       99.4

                 at least 3       96.4

                 at least 4       87.9

                 at least 5       70.6

                 at least 6       46.7

                 at least 7       22.8

                 at least 8       10.0

                 at least 9        3.4

                 at least 10        .7          

How I got these (feel free to correct me… these are guesses based on all sorts of things).  I also need to add in for the new MS race:

1% chance of switching:

AL, DE, IL, MA, MI, MS, RI, WV, WY1, WY2

2% chance of switching:

AR, KS, SC

5% chance:

GA, IA, MT, NJ, OK, TN,

10% chance:

ID, NE, SD

15% chance:

NC, TX

30% chance:

AK, LA, ME

40% chance

KY

50% chance

MN, OR

80% chance:

NH, CO

90% chance:

NM, VA

PLEDGE for KLEEB

In less than a week we have mounted a serious volunteer and contribution drive that has really brought out the best in Nebraska Democrats.  Thanks to those who pledged to put this campaign on their shoulders.

Here is where the tally sits:

50 people have pledged…

…1,192 hours (149+ working days)

…$11,780.01 ($236.60 per person)

Campaigns would kill for those kinds of numbers this early in a cycle.  Let’s keep this momentum up!

Click here to PLEDGE for KLEEB today!

The GOP continues to hit brick walls when it comes to House recruitment.

First, uber-wealthy businessman Andrew Saul aborted his bid to topple frosh Dem Rep. John Hall after some light was shed on some very shady donations to his campaign.  Now, former Assemblyman Howard Mills, a moderate Republican who some thought could wage a competitive campaign, says that Team Red can count him out.

Just a wild guess: Mills probably didn’t want to be associated with the troglodytes in the House GOP caucus.

(H/T: The Albany Project)

Cross-Posted from Hat Thief

Of the 200 or so Republicans in the House of Representatives, the one I’m probably least concerned with beating is Wayne Gilchrest. He’s pro-choice, pro-environment, wants to leave Iraq and has a relatively moderate voting record on economic issues.

And his district is pretty heavily Republican (62-38 for Bush in 2004, 57-40 for Bush in 2000). So even a True Believer® will be tough to beat here.

Wayne’s biggest fight has always been in the primary. He’s nearly been Clubbed for Growth^TM several times now.

And Pat Toomey’s organization is at it again with a new attack website, Wayne Gilchrest is a Liberal.

 an a the same strategy they used to help True Believer® Tim Walberg take down Rep. Joe Schwarz, another moderate Republican. Well, that and $500,000 in Schwarz-bashing ads.

So True Believer® State Sen. Andrew Harris is running as a “real conservative” and could well take him down.

But it looks like Gilchrest may have some good news. State Senator E.J. Pipkin has announced his intentions to run against Gilchrest as an “Eastern Shores conservative,” and pundits believe this will help split the anti-Gilchrest vote.

The Club for Growth will stick with Harris (they’ve been a conduit to raise money for him); however, E.J. Pipkin is a multi-millionaire and is willing to spend vasts sums of money, so he’ll get himself some exposure.

Frankly, I think that may be a good thing. In heavily Republican districts, I’d much prefer a moderate Republican to a far-right Republican.

However, there is always the possibility that Gilchrest could choose to run as an Independent and skip the primary; he’s popular enough to do that.

It wouldn’t be the first time a Republican left the party (or made noises about it) after a Clubbing for Growth.

• Lincoln Chafee left the Republican party after narrowly winning his primary against CFG-backed Steven Laffey and then losing the general
• Joe Schwarz has made noises about leaving the party
• Arlen Specter, who was challenged by now-CFG president Pat Toomey, would probably leave if he wasn’t a coward-he Bloomberged his way into the Republican party [Bloomberg = running as a Republican for city office to avoid heavily ethnic Democratic primary]; he should Bloomberg his way out again
• Bob Smith endorsed John Kerry for president after losing his primary to CFG-backed John Sununu

This is pretty big news.  After Rep. Jim Saxton (R-NJ) shocked us all by announcing his retirement earlier this month, the GOP felt pretty good about holding his seat.  They had well-liked state Senator Diane Allen on hand, who was very interested in making a race of it.  The only problem?  Allen, a former broadcaster with a moderate reputation, wanted assurance from the NRCC that her bid would be well-funded.  With potential primary challengers nipping at her heels and the NRCC coffers empty, I guess it didn’t take long for Allen to reach a final decision:

State Sen. Diane Allen says she will not be a candidate for Jim Saxton’s open House seat next year.

“Now is not the time in my life that I feel prepared to again fight a Democrat opponent as well as a rouge faction of the Burlington County Republican Party simultaneously,” Allen said.

Allen, a longtime legislator and former CBS news anchor in Philadelphia,  had been expected to seek the 3rd district seat, and her sudden departure amidst a major intra-party battle in Burlington extends the turmoil of the Republican campaign to hold Saxton’s seat in 2008.  It also enhances the chances of an Ocean County Republican winning the GOP nod.

Ouch!  So in addition to losing a good deal of incumbents, the GOP is having great difficulty recruiting top tier challengers to replace them.  Could the picture get any clearer?