Swing State Project

http://blog.nola.com/times-picayune/2007/08/jindal_leads_comfortably_in_la.html

Southern Media & Opinion Research poll, conducted August 3rd-6th asked 600 likely voters, MoE +/- 4.0%

Jindal (R): 63%
Boasso (D): 14%
Campbell (D): 4%
Georges (R): 1%

SMOR also asked about the Governor's race if New Orleans Ray Nagin (D) were on the ballot:

Southern Media & Opinion Research poll, conducted August 3rd-6th asked 600 likely voters, MoE +/- 4.0%

Jindal (R): 60%
Nagin (D): 10%
Boasso (D): 10%
Campbell (D): 3%
Georges (R): 1%

Southern Media & Opinion Research did two polls in March in preperation for a potential bid by either current Governor Blanco or former Senator John Breaux, and showed Jindal ahead of them, earning 59% and 56%, respectively. Without either of those two top-tier Democratic challengers, its not surprising to see Jindal polling above 60% in their polling.

This polling also paints a different picture than Anzalone Liszt Research polling did in between the two sets of SMOR polls, which showed Jindal's share dropping from 62% to 52% in the same period of time that State Sen. Walter Boasso (D) started running television ads statewide. While two polls is not enough to paint a trendline (though it didn't stop people from trying anyways), it did show Jindal vulnerable to not winning outright in the October jungle primary, whereas this new poll doesn't reflect the same picture.

There are a few reasons why this may be the case. First, speaking technically, different polling outfits use different methodologies, which usually count for discrepancies between them. There is no reliable way to determine which is more accurate until after the election. Anzalone could run a poll next week and find Jindal at 35%, and it wouldn't make either of their polls any more or less reliable. Because of the different methodologies, it is also difficult to make a straight-cut comparison between the two. For instance, you cannot say that Jindal rose ten points between this poll and the most recent Anzalone poll.

Another reason may be that Jindal has started to run statewide TV ads now. TV ads were the primary impetus behind Boasso's rise in the polls, so it stands to reason that the same would happen with Jindal.

Whatever the case, this poll clearly stands in the way of the train of thought that Jindal is not the heavy favorite to win in 2007. Don't get me wrong, this poll is not infallible, and anything can happen, especially in Louisiana politics. The purpose of this poll, and this diary, is not to say one way or another what will happen, but only to give a platform from which people judge what needs to happen. In order for Jindal to lose, someone needs to take a lot of support away from him. According to SMOR, that person doesn't appear to be Walter Boasso or Ray Nagin, and whoever that person may be will have their work cut out for them.

Speculation over the fate of former Speaker of the House Dennis Hastert has oscillated between rampant retirement rumors and some suggestions that Hastert is actually enjoying his new gig as a backbencher (perhaps he grew tired of being the poster boy for President Bush’s failed policies in the House).  According to the Beacon News, Hastert will announce his re-election plans one way or the other on Friday:

Former Speaker of the House Rep. Dennis Hastert is expected to reveal Friday whether he will run for re-election.

A speech has been announced for 10:30 a.m. Friday in Hastert’s home town of Yorkville at the old Kendall County Courthouse, Hastert staffers confirmed Monday. Staffers were tightlipped about whether the former teacher and wrestling coach who climbed to the pinnacle of Congressional political power would seek a 12th term.

While Democrats have had not exactly flocked to challenge Hastert in elections past, a small swarm of candidates has emerged to make a run at the seat, including physicist Bill Foster, attorney Jotham Stein, and 2006 candidate John Laesch.  Another potential candidate, state Rep. Linda Chapa LaVia, has formed an exploratory committee in anticipation of a Hastert retirement. State Rep. Linda Chapa LaVia, who earlier considered a run, has bowed out of the race.  (H/T: TXObserver in the comments.)

With a PVI of R+4.8, Hastert’s district certainly leans Republican, but Illinois Democrats have scored wins in territory as red or redder.  Melissa Bean toppled long-time incumbent Phil Crane in 2004 despite George W. Bush carrying her district by 12 points.  In total, there are 25 Democratic incumbents in the House of Representatives who represent districts with a PVI more favorable to Republicans than Illinois’ 14th.

Stay tuned.  (H/T: Atrios.)

The last diary I wrote concerned the general expectations of the Congressional elections, and since this will definitely have a substantial impact on the Congressional elections, I think we need to look at how specific presidential candidates affect the congressional races.

To keep this from getting too out of hand, I'm only really looking at the top candidates for each party (Democrats: Clinton, Obama, and Edwards; Republicans: Giuliani, Thompson, Romney, and McCain)

 

Disclosure: I'm supporting Barack Obama in the presidential primaries.

Democratic Candidates

Hillary Clinton: Ok, to get this out of the way, Hillary Clinton is the frontrunner and, at the moment, most likely to win the nomination. The congressional races she helps are going to be in already blue states: Oregon (Gordon Smith) New Hampshire (Sununnu) possibly Minnesota (Coleman). In House races, she again helps freshman who are in blue districts and states and will help our efforts against the remainder of the northeast Republicans (Chris Shays, the lone New England Republican for one). Now here's the bad part: she's not all that helpful in the midwest or the south where quite a few Senate races could become competitive if the conditions are right: Kentucky (McConnell) Texas (Cornyn) North Carolina (Dole) Alabama (Sessions) Colorado (open) and Tennessee (Alexander).

My analysis: Clinton wins at the cost of the other tickets. Bill Clinton did the same thing in the 1996 election and that's what I think would happen here.

Barack Obama: Alright, Obama is the number two and, depending on the circumstances, could upset Clinton. So what does Obama do for the congressional ticket? Well, he's actually a ticket enhancer. Obama's candidacy will boost turnout of black voters and young voters (blacks vote at least 90% for Democrats and in southern states like Tennessee, Kentucky, and Alabama it could lead to some good upsets). Additionally, Obama also seems to do well among independents which would definitely be good for the two freshman congressmen in New Hampshire and in some red districts where winning over independent voters is important.

My analysis: Obama is a ticket-lifter, he doesn't inherently hurt the ticket the way Clinton does and, in fact, depending on who the Republicans pick, could actually put some extra seats into play that otherwise wouldn't be competitve.

John Edwards: Ok, Edwards is the dark-horse right now, and unless something really dramatic happens he's not winning the nomination, but having said that, here's my analysis of his impact on congressional races. Edwards is definitely a popular figure in the midwest and in a few of the southern states (North and South Carolina for instance). He'd definitely help candidates like Pryor and Harkin in Arkansas and Iowa respectively, and could probably do something about Elizabeth Dole (seriously, why doesn't he just drop out of the presidential race and just rerun for the Senate against Liddy Dole?).

My analysis: Edwards is more of a help than a detriment, and, quite frankly, had he been the nominee in 2004, we'd probably have picked up a couple of those southern seats in the Senate. Edwards share Obama's ability to make some southern seats more competitive, though his being on the ticket in 2004 does make him more polarizing than in previous years and being able to be linked to Kerry in the south could do more harm than good to congressional races. (John, it's not too late to challenge Liddy…)

Republicans to be added tomorrow

 

Michigan Democratic Party Chairman Mark Brewer was asked “What makes Gary Peters qualified to face Joe Knollenberg?” in his latest video blog.

Jump the fold to read more. 

Mark is right when he says Gary will be an outstanding member of Congress. He certainly has the experience!

While in the Senate, he served as the ranking Democrat on the Finance, Education, Judiciary, Natural Resources, and Families and Mental Health Committees. – Peters For Congress

While at the lottery Gary not only increased sales by over $600 million, but did it while staying under budget by $13 million. It is this type of fiscal responsibility that will keep our country strong for future generations.

You can see why Joe Knollenberg is so nervous this time. He will be asking all his lobbyists, special interests, and donors to provide the $4 million his finance director thinks they'll need to beat Gary.

Clearly Mark Brewer's kind words and publicity on the Michigan Democratic Party website are a great sign for the Peters campaign. 

Fifteen months ago, DavidNYC extended a humbling offer to promote me from the comments section to the front page of the Swing State Project.  It’s been an absolute blast to write for and help steer this blog over the past year, which is why I’m very excited to announce that the Swing State Project team is adding a new contributing editor this weekend.

Please give a warm welcome to Trent Thompson, an energetic young Democrat from Alabama.  This spring, Trent made a major splash as the publisher of Sack Sessions, a blog dedicated to the defeat of Senator Jeff Sessions.  Trent was also instrumental in helping us build an exciting (if ultimately unsuccessful) effort to draft Agricultural Commissioner Ron Sparks into the Senate race this year.  He has since gone on to join Left in Alabama, a growing community blog for progressive action in his home state, as a front page poster.  I can’t say enough good things about Trent; he’s an excellent writer and he’ll offer a valuable perspective to SSP, especially on Southern races.  With Trent on board, we stand to be in even stronger shape in the near future.

Since we're all having fun speculating potential successors for Hillary Clinton in the Senate should she win the Presidency, let's take a moment to look at Illinois, too.

Assuming Barack Obama crushes Tom Tancredo in the 2008 Presidential election, whom might Gov. Rod Blagojevich appoint to serve the final two years of Obama's Senate term?  Whom would you like Blago to appoint? 

The most common name that I've heard batted around for a hypothetical Senate promotion is Attorney General Lisa Madigan.  Other possibilities could include Comptroller Dan Hynes, who finished second to Obama in the 2004 Senate primary, or perhaps a Representative like Jesse Jackson, Jr.

Any other possibilities?  Tammy Duckworth?  Lt. Gov. Pat Quinn?  Blago himself?  (Shudder to think.)  Leave your thoughts in the comments.

Rep. Richard Baker, a Republican representing the Baton Rouge-based 6th District of Louisiana, has decided not to challenge Democratic Sen. Mary Landrieu next year.  From PoliticsLA: 

Baker says he has been taking meetings with party leaders to discuss the idea, and has left the possibility open in press interviews. But now he reveals that he is happy in the House, where a Democratic majority has managed to put only small dent in his seniority – he originally took the lead on Louisiana's housing woes in the wake of Katrina and brokered a deal on a water-resources bill last month that had been stalled in Congress for seven years. “The Republicans, state and federal, see the Landrieu race as a competitive one and, at the moment, I'm not so sure there's a candidate out there,” Baker says. “But I can tell you it is nothing I intend to take on.

Not too surprising, given Baker's sluggish fundraising this year.  The full court press by national Republicans returns to “Democratic” State Treasurer John Kennedy, who, as you may recall, ran to succeed retiring Sen. John Breaux in 2004 and earned only 15% of the vote.  I hope he doesn't run, because you could just imagine all those gleeful Republican talking heads squealing in delight about how they managed to get someone named “John Kennedy” to abandon the Democratic Party.

UPDATE: John Kennedy also announced today that he will seek re-election for his State Treasurer post this fall.  However, I do not see how such a move could prevent him from starting up a Senate campaign after November, and I have not seen any statements ruling that possibility out as of yet.

Bear with me here.  Let's assume for a moment that Hillary is our 2008 Presidential nominee, and that she wins.  Fast forward to the election aftermath, where Gov. Eliot Spitzer has the task of appointing a replacement to fill Clinton's Senate vacancy.

Whom might Spitzer appoint?  And whom would you want Spitzer to appoint?

Spitzer surprised many observers when he tapped state Senator David Paterson for his running mate in 2006, and perhaps he could surprise again given the chance.  Despite being large in number, there is no one of tremendous stature in the state's Democratic congressional delegation who could be tapped (Charlie Rangel, at 77, is too old), but that's not to say that I think a promotion from the House to the Senate is unlikely.

If Spitzer wanted to get political rival and New York Attorney General Andrew Cuomo off his back, he could always appoint him, but that seems unlikely given their prickly relationship.

Perhaps even Paterson himself could be a possibility, but one would expect that Spitzer would come under pressure to balance the state's Senatorial delegation with an appointee from upstate rather than a second Senator with Brooklyn roots.

There has been little talk yet of this subject, possibly because Hillary must leap through two hoops (the primary and the general election) before such a scenario occurs.  But we here at Swing State like to explore the hypotheticals, so share your thoughts in the comments below.

 

The 11^th District Democrats are pleased to invite you to:

 

 

 

Our first annual organizational dinner on Friday, August 17^th 7:30 PM at Aurelio’s on 310 W. Lincoln Highway in Frankfort, IL.

 

Please join us for food, drink, and a discussion of the state of Democratic politics in the 11^th District.

 

Only $20 to participate in this inaugural gathering.

 

Additional contributions welcome.

 

Expected attendees include 2006 11^th Congressional District candidate John Pavich and presumptive 2008 candidate Jerry Weber

 

 

 

            The 11^th District Democrats is an organization which has recently been created to further the cause of Democratic politics within our district.  Our goal is to help raise volunteers, money, and awareness to aid those running in local, state, and federal elections.   Also, we hope to facilitate coordination between local and county Democratic organizations.  Obviously, in order to build a permanent party infrastructure, we need individuals interested in our cause to actively participate in the process.   To this end, we would be pleased if you joined us at our dinner to learn more about the organization, as well as offer any ideas or suggestions.

 

 

 

Please pay either by cash or check at the event.  Make checks payable to the “11^th District Democrats”. 

 

If you are unable to attend, but still would like to join the organization, please send your contact information to Nikhil Bhatia via email or telephone.  Donations for those unable to attend can be mailed to 580 Butternut Trail, Frankfort, IL 60423.

 

PLEASE RSVP by August 10.

 

Email: nbhatia3@uiuc.edu

 

Telephone: (815) 557-3528.

 

(From the diaries with light editing for formatting. A Mark Schauer candidacy would immediately make this race into a knock-down, top tier contest. Schauer has a solid base in the heart of the district and a strong resume as Minority Leader in the State Senate. I hope he tosses his hat into the ring. – promoted by James L.)

State Senator Mark Schauer, a Battle Creek Democrat, was mentioned quite a bit last fall and early this year as a potential candidate for Congress in the 7th District. He's been a fantastic party leader in the legislature, supporting the netroots and working to solve the Michigan budget crisis. His name was even tossed around by supporters of Joe Schwarz in 2006 as a reason not to vote for Tim Walberg, suggesting that Walberg in 2006 would inevitably lead to a Schauer victory in 2008.

Schauer and his staff quashed most speculation this spring, promising to stay on as leader of the Democratic caucus in the Senate until the end of his term in 2010. Most observers– including journalist Jack Lessenberry— thought he would have been a formidable candidate, but Schauer seemed determined to sit this election out.

But all of that might be changing.

For those that don't recall, Michigan's 7th District is currently represented by far-right wing Congressman Tim Walberg. Walberg is one of those conservatives who opposes little things, like taxes and the separation of church and state. He defeated the well-respected moderate Congressman Joe Schwarz (a Republican also from Battle Creek) in a very nasty primary funded mostly by the Club for Growth.

But back to Mark Schauer.  Starting last night, I started hearing rumors that Schauer might be reconsidering his previous decision. Then the subscription-only MIRS News service reported that Schauer would contact Jim Berryman and David Nacht sometime today to let them know whether or not he would “seriously consider” running in 2008. Then the AP picked it up:

    LANSING, Mich. (AP) — State Senate Minority Leader Mark Schauer, D-Battle Creek, may challenge U.S. Rep. Tim Walberg in the 2008 election after brushing off earlier overtures to enter the race.

    Schauer, who had pledged to Senate Democrats to serve out his full four-year term through 2010, said Wednesday he is discussing a bid for Congress with family, colleagues and constituents before making a “final decision.”

    “I would bring the same commonsense, results-oriented approach to this role as I have to my entire career in public service,” Schauer, 45, said in a statement.

    Schauer said it had become “painfully clear that Tim Walberg cares more about what's best for Republican leadership in Washington than what's best for Michigan's 7th district. […]

    Former Rep. Joe Schwarz, R-Battle Creek, said Wednesday he spoke to Schauer earlier in the day and the state senator told him “he was looking at” the congressional race. Schwarz said Schauer did not indicate when he would make a final decision.

    Schwarz, who was defeated by Walberg in last year's Republican primary, said he had not made a decision on whether he would re-seek his old congressional seat.

    Schwarz, a physician, is chairing a task force on health care needs in southeast Michigan and said he would not announce any plans on the congressional race until his task force releases a report in September.

The plot thickens further with Michigan Liberal's lpackard's discovery that the domain schauerforcongress.com has been registered.

I've been following this all day today with e-mails and phone calls to a bunch of different people, and this is what I've got: Schauer has not announced whether or not he'll run, and likely hasn't made a final decision. As is suggested by the article above, we're now in a period where he may be watching to see what kind of support he may have. “Testing the waters,” as it were.

In other words, if you want Mark Schauer to run for Congress, now would be the time to let him know about it.

Adapted from a post at Walberg Watch. (Thanks to Michigan Liberal.)

UPDATE: Apparently, MIRS is reporting that a DCCC poll conducted showed Schauer leading Walberg by three percent, and by eight percent when positives and negatives of each are read.