Swing State Project

Congressman Dean Heller (R) hears it from his constituents. They want out of Iraq:

Heller returns to Washington this week after hearing deep opposition to the war from constituents in Nevada during spring recess. He said he heard similar sentiments in private conversations, in grocery stores and in homes from “some of my friends, neighbors, colleagues.”

Heller came away believing that two of every three Nevadans oppose the war – on par with national polls. (emphasis added)

And now he’s being hit by an ad campaign run by Americans United for Change.

Watch the ad challening Heller on his stance on Iraq:

Yet, Heller is still voting with the Bush administration on Iraq and is supporting the surge:

Heller voted for Bush’s troop surge and stepped up when the president called Republicans to the White House for a show of support. He called the Democratic House speaker “Gen. Pelosi,” a favorite Republican derision for Rep. Nancy Pelosi.

[…]

“I think this is a process you’re constantly reassessing,” Heller told the Sun. “I probably spend the majority of my time thinking about Iraq.”

Heller has struggled during his three months in office to become an Iraq expert. He keeps a copy of the Iraq Study Group report in his briefcase.

You can read the entire article by Lisa Mascaro titled “Heller hears it from every side and now in ads, too” at the Las Vegas Sun.

One Nevada blog, the Desert Beacon, had this to say about Heller:

(Note to Rep. Heller: Removing the report from the brief case and reading it in its entirety might prevent future misinterpretations similar to “It supports the Surge.”) Those who don’t have a copy of the report for their briefcases can download one here. (PDF)

To keep an eye on Congressman Heller, I started a blog this week, entirely devoted to the 435th most powerful member of the House, titled Helluva Heller. Here’s what it’s about:

“Helluva Heller” is intended to track Rep. Dean Heller’s (R, NV-02) actions in Congress and advocates the defeat of Dean Heller in the next general election on November 8, 2008.

“Helluva Heller” will report on Dean Heller’s speeches, his votes, his fundraising and so much more. To help you track Dean Heller, I have posted a list of links on the sidebar.

“Helluva Heller” will also report on possible candidates against Dean Heller in 2008, especially on the Democratic side.

Enjoy “Helluva Heller,” let others know about this blog, and help make Dean Heller a one-term Congressman.

Dean Heller is beatable. While he was Secretary of State of Nevada for three terms he almost lost the Republican primary and his campaign was so much in trouble, that Bush himself had to fly into Reno to fundraise for him. After the 1st quarter of this year his campaign is still in debt. He only beat Democrat Jill Derby last year 50% to 45% in a district that has never seen a Democratic Representative in Congress. However, recently this district is trending away from the Republicans with Democrats especially making inroads in the largest county, Washoe (Reno), which Jill Derby won with 50% to Heller’s 46%.

Keep an eye on Helluva Heller for more, especially on news about finding a challenger for Heller.

Attention New Yorkers:

Who: Congressional Candidates Linda Stender (NJ-07), Dan Maffei (NY-25), and Eric Massa (NY-29) – and featured guest Jim Dean (chair of Democracy for America)

What: “Expanding our Majority: On to 2008!”  – a fundraiser for DFA

When: Wednesday, 4/25 – 6pm to 8pm

Where: Manhattan (Upper East Side)

For more info & to RSVP, click here. You can also contact Rachel Moss at (802) 651-3200, ext. 134 or rmoss@democracyforamerica.com. A wide range of contribution levels are available for anyone who would like to attend, including a special student rate of just $35.

So if you’re in town, this is a great chance to meet some of our strongest rematch contenders for 2008, plus Jim Dean, brother of Howard and a supremely good guy. Let’s go Team Blue!

At first glance, of the three House Democratic freshmen from New York, Kirsten Gillibrand might seem like a compelling target for Republicans.  Her district, New York’s 20th, delivered its votes to Bush by an 8-point margin in 2004, and by 7 points in 2000.  And, with an advantage of over 80,000 voters in 2006, the 20th district has one of the most favorable voter registration balances for Republicans in New York.  However, as we’ve all seen for over 20 years (the last six especially), the definition of “Republican” has changed, and many of this district’s voters are in the midst of a fundamental identity change.

Politicians like Kirsten are at the forefront of this shift, and she has already made all the right moves to put herself in the strongest possible position for her first re-election campaign after defeating the scandal-plagued John Sweeney last November.  Aside from raising a very impressive $668,000 in the first quarter of 2007, she’s also been very successful in making headlines for all the right reasons: namely, an incredibly energetic delivery of services to her constituents.  Just take this remarkable letter to the editor in the Albany Times-Union, written by a former Sweeney aide.  Allow me to reproduce it in full, because it really captures the essence of the 20th’s new Democratic (big-d and small-d) representation:

As a former aide to John Sweeney while he was in the Pataki administration, I must say what a tremendous job Kirsten Gillibrand is doing. She is the most accessible politician in the region. Every weekend, she is somewhere in the 20th Congressional District, letting us know exactly where she stands on issues and why, which is a refreshing change. I’m sure we all have stories about experiences we have had dealing with Rep. Gillibrand, but I feel compelled to tell you about mine.

Last month, Rep. Gillibrand asked me to serve on her Veterans Advisory Committee. Being a veteran and still involved in politics, I decided to accept her invitation to a meeting at the State Military Museum in Saratoga Springs.

I figured I would see the usual political maneuver in which the politician walks through the room, shakes a couple of hands, gets a picture with a leading area vet, says how hard she is fighting for us in Washington and then is whisked out of the room, all in a matter of minutes.

What happened could not have been further from this. Rep. Gillibrand went to the podium, disconnected the microphone, walked to the vet seated nearest her, gave him the microphone, sat down, opened a notebook, got out a pen and asked, “What do you want me to do as your representative in Congress?” I have to tell you, I was astonished.

Rep. Gillibrand sat there for 2 1/2 hours, listening as we passed the microphone from person to person. She asked questions, gave opinions and answers, and took down personal contact information if she did not have an answer, promising to call us back.

Our district could not have asked for a better person to serve us. If she keeps this up, she will be our representative for life.

GREG MIHALKO

Stephentown

Yep, public service like that sure beats Sweeney’s frat boy antics of years past.

Race Tracker: NY-20

Crossposted at Daily Kingfish

If you have a spare moment in your busy schedule, I recommend you visit the webiste of the Louisiana Committee for a Republican Majority, a PAC US Senator David Vitter bankrolls with Washington, DC, money. All the usual suspects are there: Paul Dickson, Wendy Vitter, Boysie Bollinger, David Vitter, TA Barfield, Joseph Canizaro, Michael Polito, Fox News and The Weekly Standard.  And there they are rehashing and revising all the 1994 rhetoric, failing to recall that today is the year 2007.  “Revolution,” “Republican re-alignment [sic],” “Republican domination,” “a Democrat [sic] Party in crisis,” “trial lawyers,” “smaller government,” “business friendly,” “an end to political corruption:”  all the tropes are there for the taking, and Vitter and company are falling on top of one another as they grasp for whatever straws they can find in their twisted fantasy space.  It is quite sick, really, especially when one wonders why they are so obsessed with hegemony.  For the goal is to present “the next Republican Governor” with a “Republican controlled House.”  Dissent and debate will not be brooked in their warped vision for Louisiana. 

Despite all the crowing about the impending “revolution,” LCRM has already conceded the state Senate to the Democrats.  Their eyes are focused on the state House, and they outline the following four step plan for their planned takeover of that chamber in their introductory video: maintain the 25 seats presently held by Republicans; hold all 15 open Republican seats; “switch” or defeat 7 Democratic incumbents in districts “friendly to Vitter and Bush;” win 20 of the open Democratic seats that “lean Republican.”

Here is a table enumerating the state House seats they plan to target with open Republican seats in pink, Republican seats in red, open Democratic seats in purple and Democratic seats in blue:

HD01	James Morris	Caddo and Bossier Parishes
HD07	Beverly Bruce	Caddo and DeSoto Parishes
HD09	Billy Wayne Montgomery	Bossier Parish
HD10	Jean M. Doerge	Webster Parish
HD13	Jim Fannin	Bienville, Jackson, Ouachita and Winn Parishes
HD14	Charlie Mac McDonald	East Carroll, Morehouse, Ouachita and West Carroll Parishes
HD19	Francis T. Thompson	East Carroll, Madison, Morehouse, Ouachita, Richland and West Carroll Parishes
HD20	Lelon Kenney	Caldwell, Catahoula, Franklin and Tensas Parishes
HD24	Joe Salter	DeSoto, Red River, Sabine and Vernon Parishes
HD25	Charlie DeWitt	Rapides and Vernon Parishes
HD27	Rick Farrar	Rapides Parish
HD30	John Smith	Beauregard and Vernon Parishes
HD32	Herman Ray Hill	Allen, Beauregard and Vernon Parishes
HD39	Clara Guilbeau Baudoin	Lafayette, St. Landry and St. Martin Parishes
HD41	Mickey Guillory	Acadia, Evangeline and St. Landry Parishes
HD42	Gil Pinac	Acadia and Lafayette Parishes
HD46	Sydnie Mae Durand	St. Martin Parish
HD47	Mickey Frith	Cameron and Vermilion Parishes
HD48	Romo Romero	Iberia Parish
HD49	Troy Hebert	Iberia and Vermilion Parishes
HD50	Jack Smith	Iberia, St. Martin and St. Mary Parishes
HD53	Damon Baldone	Lafourche and Terrebonne Parishes
HD55	Warren Triche	Lafourche Parish
HD56	Gary Smith	St. Charles and St. John the Baptist Parishes
HD75	Harold Ritchie	St. Tammany and Washington Parishes
HD84	NJ Damico	Jefferson Parish
HD103	Kenneth Odinet	Orleans and St. Bernard Parishes

Some of this is not very surprising, but I do not understand how Republicans believe an incumbent such as Damon Baldone, who secured a large portion of the Terrebonne Parish vote during the 2004 jungle primary for LA-03 and thereby enabled Charlie Melancon to edge past state Sen. Craign Romero into the runoff, would either switch parties or lose an election in his home turf.  I also wonder how they plan to smear Mickey Guillory, a former police officer, and Jean Doerge, a former educator.  And do they seriously believe River Parish voters will oust Gary Smith?

Their focus on Acadiana is the result of the popularity of John Breaux and Chris John in this region.  The Acadiana vote has always been one Republicans have had a difficult time securing, and they believe this is the year they can turn south Louisiana red.  While the fields for the jungle primaries for these races are yet to be formed, we do have promising Democratic candidates running for some of these open Democratic seats.  One worth watching and supporting is Simone Champagne, who retired from her position as Chief Administrator for Iberia Parish Government in order to run for Troy Hebert’s House seat.  If we can recruit organized and qualified candidates such as Champagne in every open Acadiana seat, we will derail LCRM’s plan to control the state House in the name of “Republican domination.”

What are your reactions to LCRM’s strategy?  And how do you interpret their rhetoric?  Is David Vitter obsessed with Chris John?  Do you see their strategy as viable?  Or do you view it as so much posturing and so much bilge?  Whether or not we agree with it, we at least know where the lines have been drawn, and we should prepare to fight them on each and every front. 

And we should also surprise them with attacks in districts they assume are safely Republican.  HD54, HD104, HD105 are three seats presently held by Republicans that are far from safe.  Two other seats that comes to mind unbidden are HD94 and HD95.  And according to one Louisiana political pundit, HD31 may become a very interesting race.

Cross-posted from Burnt Orange Report

So the first quarter of fundraising is over and while the focus was mostly on the presidential candidates, let’s not forget about our incumbent members of Congress. In order to do that, I’ve compiled data for all 32 members in Texas and sorted them in four categories: 1Q Raised, 1Q Spent, Cash on Hand, and their Burn rate (calculated as spent/raised so the higher the number the more spent).

Click on the different tabs below to see the totals. Democrats in bold but all are marked by party. Al Green has not yet filed (not uncommon). If it’s not displaying below, click here.

Glad to see Chet (D), Lampson (D), and Ciro (D) high on that list, though I’m sure Lampson is still going to raise more knowing that he will have the toughest re-election fight in Texas. Six of the seven worst fundraisers were Republicans.

But what is up with Ron Paul (R) and Ralph Hall (R)? I know Paul is running for President (as a Republican, not Libertarian) but Hall pulled in a meager $2000. Hall is old (84) but hasn’t announced any plans to retire. Could this be a sign? He also used to be a Democrat until he switched parties after the DeLay redistricting forced him into a more Republican district. Might be be convinced to switch back? Under House rules he’d retain his seniority and seeing as he’s been in congress since 1981, that’s a lot of rank he could pull.

In terms of Cash on Hand, Austin’s Lloyd Doggett (D) is #1 with $1.95 million. But after that it’s mostly Republican, though some notably lower than 2 years ago like Lamar Smith (R) and Pete Sessions (R). That’s one nice side effect of the campaigns of John Courage and Will Pryor.

As to the burn rate- anything over 1 indicates more money being spent than raised. Texas Democrats did very well in this category holding 10 of the 14 best spots, holding on to their cash and building up their warchests.  Paul (R) is the worst burner but his attention is elsewhere so no surprise. Hall (R) takes the number 2 spot- further hints at potential retirement?

Anything else of note? Add your thoughts and analysis in the comments.

While we noted in our round-up that Republican Jim Gerlach of Pennsylvania’s 6th district finished the first quarter of 2007 having raised $213,000 and holding $107,000 cash-on-hand, we didn’t take into account this golden blunder in the calculus:

The Federal Election Commission has fined Rep. Jim Gerlach’s campaign committee $120,000 for filing inaccurate financial disclosure reports in 2004 and 2005, an unusually large penalty that puts a significant dent in the lawmaker’s re-election coffers.

The commission, in announcing the fine Wednesday, said the 6th District Republican’s campaign over-reported its contributions by $2.2 million in several of its quarterly statements during the two years, and misreported about $9,000 in refunded donations in late 2005. It also said Gerlach failed to itemize $9,000 worth of contributions in his 2004 year-end report.

The fine, which commissioners voted 5-0 to assess as part of an agreement with Gerlach’s campaign to close the case, is the third largest issued against a sitting U.S. lawmaker since 1980, according to the FEC. It resulted from a complaint filed in 2005 by Gerlach’s opponent in the past two elections, Democrat Lois Murphy.

[…]

The fine, though, does mean Gerlach is already about $300,000 behind where he was at this period in the last election cycle, when he raised nearly $400,000 in the first quarter of the year. He and Murphy ended up waging one of the most expensive congressional races in the country.

So Gerlach essentially returns to square one.  It may be schadenfreude, but… I can’t resist: ha-ha!

Race Tracker: PA-06

We really like State Sen. John Unger here in the Eastern Panhandle.

He’s done a great job at the State House. Now we’re hoping Unger runs for Congress to represent us in the House of Representatives.

Here’s 5 reasons why he’d make a great representative for West Virginia’s District 2.

(Public domain photo from the West Virginia legislature site.)

* He’s a Rhodes Scholar and a Truman Scholar as well as the first in his family to graduate from college. It’d be nice to have a Congressional representative in WV-02 who was highly intelligent.

* He worked with Mother Teresa to help the poor.

In Calcutta, the work was long and back breaking, but Unger found it very rewarding until about six months in. It was then that a monsoon swept through the City of Joy, where he was working. Mother Teresa put him in charge of a six block radius coordinating relief efforts. But try as he might, he was overwhelmed. Finally he went to his mentor with a confession. “Mother, I don’t think I’m making a difference. Maybe you need to find someone else.” Mother Teresa smiled at him and said “God does not call us to do great things, but small things with great love.” He has tried to live by those words ever since.

* He did extremely well against Republican candidate Jerry Mays despite the fact Mays received considerable support from the Martinsburg Journal and coal baron Don Blankenship. Despite the odds, Unger received 19,640 votes in Berkeley and Jefferson counties to Mays 10,790. Unger won despite being in heavily Republican counties. (PResident George W. Bush won Berkeley 21,293 to Senator John Kerry’s 12,224 and Jefferson 10,059 to 9,301).

* He’s effective. In seven years, he’s had more than 230 of his bills passed.

* He already has an extensive background in how the federal goverment works (he worked with the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Energy Technology Laboratory on homeland security and economic development issues) and international affairs (he’s worked with refugees from Vietnam in Hong Kong and for the International Rescue Committee as well as Kurdish refugees in southern Turkey and northern Iraq after the first Gulf War).

Let’s compare his biography to his potential opponent’s Rep. Shelley Moore Capito (Rubberstamp Republican).

From her own web site:

Before beginning her years of public service, Capito worked as a career counselor at West Virginia State University and as the Director of the Educational Information Center for the West Virginia Board of Regents. Her volunteer activities include being a Past President and Board Member of the YWCA, a member of the Community Council of the Kanawha Valley, and a member of the West Virginia Interagency Council for Early Intervention. She has also been an active participant in Read Aloud and Habitat for Humanity.

Capito graduated from Duke University with a B.S. in Zoology, and also holds a M.Ed. from the University of Virginia.

What her bio leaves out is that she first won office in 1996 to the House of Delegates riding the coat-tails of her father, former Gov. Arch Moore and maintained her office through the political machine her father built and through receiving huge campaign donations from the political machine built by Tom Delay (her fundraising has plummeted since he left Congress).

When you compare Unger’s life and work experiences to Capito’s, it’s easy to see why we’d rather have Unger representing us in WV-02.

Hot on the heels of their hard-hitting ads against Republican Senators McConnell (KY), Collins (ME) and Sununu (NH), Americans United For Change is setting its sights on four Republican House incumbents: Heather Wilson (NM-01), Jim Walsh (NY-25), Dean Heller (NV-02), and Tim Johnson (IL-15):

AUFC picked an interesting mix of incumbents here.  While Walsh and Wilson will be two huge Democratic targets next year, Johnson and Heller are completely out of left field.  Raise your hands if you even knew that the Republicans had their own Tim Johnson.  Yeah, I thought so.

As far as an “expanding the playing field” type of move, I remain skeptical that Heller’s district will come into play next year.  At a PVI of R+8.2, the only reason this district was competitive last year was due to its open seat status, a feisty Republican primary, and Democrat Jill Derby’s strengths.  I’m not anticipating that any of these factors will re-emerge in 2008, and I doubt that a top-shelf challenger will emerge.  If I were in charge of these ad buys, I would have gone after Republican Jon Porter in nearby NV-03, whose D+1.0 district and out-of-the-mainstream views on Iraq make his district ripe for another aggressive challenge.

As for Johnson, his Illinois district went to Bush by 11 and 18 point margins in 2000 and 2004, respectively.  I would be surprised if anything happened here, but at least Mr. Johnson will have to feel some deserved heat on Iraq.  Hopefully his ass will get redistricted into oblivion in a few years.

UPDATE: AUFC is also going after Randy Kuhl (NY-29) and Mary Bono (CA-45).

(Bumped. – promoted by James L.)

UPDATE: I just added new numbers for John Doolittle and Charlie Brown in CA-04. It was a pleasant surprise to see Brown pull in nearly $89,000 during the first quarter–a number made more impressive when you stack it against the totals raised by other rematch-seekers (Eric Massa, Darcy Burner, Mary Jo Kilroy, Larry Kissell, et cetera). I also added Ric Keller (FL-08), whose $27K report shouldn’t chase off a strong challenger from emerging to this underperforming incumbent. More new names: Ciro Rodriguez (TX-23), Blumenauer & DeFazio (OR-03 & OR-04), Hayes & Kissell (NC-08), and John McHugh (NY-23).

---

Now that the two week deadline for House and Senate campaigns to file their first quarter fundraising reports has passed, let’s round up all reports that we’ve logged here, here, here, and here–and add a whole bunch more for good measure.

First, a few Senate numbers:

District	Candidate	Party	1Q Raised	Cash-on-Hand
CO-Sen	Mark Udall*	D	$324K	$1.54m
LA-Sen	Mary Landrieu	D-inc.	$1.02m	$1.8m
ME-Sen	Tom Allen*	D	$393K	$812K
MN-Sen	Norm Coleman	R-inc.	$1.5m	$2.8m
MN-Sen	Al Franken	D	$1.35m	$1.1m
MT-Sen	Max Baucus	D-inc.	$1.1m	$2.9m
NC-Sen	Elizabeth Dole	R-inc.	$1.7m	$1.5m
NH-Sen	Steve Marchand	D	$100k	(n/a)
NH-Sen	Katrina Swett	D	$462K	$443K
VA-Sen	John Warner	R-inc.	$500	$667K

(*Denotes numbers filed for House campaign accounts, which will be transferred over to their soon to be formed Senate accounts.)

It’s great to see Tom Allen nearly doubling his war chest during the first three months of the year, and it’s even better to know what Mark Udall’s $1.5 million must be doing to the psyche of his Republican competition in Colorado.

Next up, we have lotsa noteworthy new numbers from House incumbents and challengers (but mostly incumbents). All of these figures were taken from FEC’s E-Filing Report Retrieval page:

District	Candidate	Party	1Q Raised	Cash-on-Hand
AZ-01	Rick Renzi	R-inc.	$118K	$81K
AZ-05	Harry Mitchell	D-inc.	$235K	$223K
AZ-08	Gabby Giffords	D-inc.	$320K	$415K
CA-04	John Doolittle	R-inc.	$128K	$91K
CA-04	Charlie Brown	D	$89K	$136K
CA-11	Jerry McNerney	D-inc.	$347K	$297K
CA-11	Richard Pombo	R	-$825	$35K
CO-04	Marilyn Musgrave	R-inc.	$247K	$268K
CT-02	Joe Courtney	D-inc.	$307K	$287K
CT-05	Chris Murphy	D-inc.	$420K	$448K
DE-AL	Mike Castle	R-inc.	$96K	$1.21m
FL-08	Ric Keller	R-inc.	$27K	$153K
FL-10	Bill “C.W.” Young	R-inc.	$15K	$434K
FL-13	Vernon Buchanan	R-inc.	$462K	$280K
FL-13	Christine Jennings	D	$236K	$49K
FL-16	Tim Mahoney	D-inc.	$458K	$439K
FL-22	Ron Klein	D-inc.	$611K	$533K
GA-08	Jim Marshall	D-inc.	$125K	$353K
GA-12	John Barrow	D-inc.	$252K	$506K
IA-04	Tom Latham	R-inc.	$143K	$215K
IA-05	Steve King	R-inc.	$16K	$21K
ID-01	Bill Sali	R-inc.	$87K	$70K
IN-02	Joe Donnelly	D-inc.	$342K	$264K
IN-08	Brad Ellsworth	D-inc.	$228K	$216K
KS-02	Nancy Boyda	D-inc.	$137K	$171K
KS-02	Jim Ryun	R	$171K	$256K
KY-03	John Yarmuth	D-inc.	$304K	$293K
LA-06	Richard Baker	R-inc.	$94K	$66K
MI-07	Tim Walberg	R-inc.	$136K	$160K
MI-09	Joe Knollenberg	R-inc.	$262K	$280K
MN-01	Tim Walz	D-inc.	$187K	$156K
MN-06	Michelle Bachmann	R-inc.	$259K	$200K
MT-AL	Denny Rehberg	R-inc.	$76K	$300K
NC-08	Robin Hayes	R-inc.	$150K	$176K
NC-08	Larry Kissell	D	$12K	$469
NH-01	Carol Shea-Porter	D-inc.	$107K	$128K
NH-01	Jeb Bradley	R-inc.	$7K	$64K
NH-02	Paul Hodes	D-inc.	$248K	$203K
NM-01	Heather Wilson	R-inc.	$274K	$250K
NM-02	Steve Pearce	R-inc.	$114K	$196K
NM-03	Tom Udall	D-inc.	$1,600	$713K
NV-03	Jon Porter	R-inc.	$234K	$235K
NY-13	Vito Fossella	R-inc.	$133K	$83K
NY-19	John Hall	D-inc.	$341K	$342K
NY-20	Kirsten Gillibrand	D-inc.	$668K	$552K
NY-23	John McHugh	R-inc.	$51K	$111K
NY-25	Jim Walsh	R-inc.	$105K	$132K
NY-26	Tom Reynolds	R-inc.	$238K	$356K
NY-29	Randy Kuhl	R-inc.	$93K	$104K
NY-29	Eric Massa	D	$7K	$2K
OH-02	Jean Schmidt	R-inc.	$20K	$17K
OH-15	Deborah Pryce	R-inc.	$167K	$171K
OH-15	Mary Jo Kilroy	D	$23K	$36K
OH-16	Ralph Regula	R-inc.	$1,560	$91K
OH-18	Zack Space	D-inc.	$213K	$180K
OR-03	Earl Blumenauer	D-inc.	$92K	$405K
OR-04	Peter DeFazio	D-inc.	$24K	$106K
PA-04	Jason Altmire	D-inc.	$225K	$225K
PA-06	Jim Gerlach	R-inc.	$213K	$107K
PA-07	Joe Sestak	D-inc.	$444K	$587K
PA-08	Patrick Murphy	D-inc.	$340K	$301K
PA-10	Chris Carney	D-inc.	$248K	$210K
PA-15	Charlie Dent	R-inc.	$181K	$221K
TX-22	Nick Lampson	D-inc.	$219K	$261K
TX-23	Ciro Rodriguez	D-inc.	$221K	$356K
VA-02	Thelma Drake	R-inc.	$227K	$190K
VA-11	Tom Davis	R-inc.	$623K	$833K
WA-08	Dave Reichert	R-inc.	$185K	$48K
WA-08	Darcy Burner	D	$17K	$38K
WI-08	Steve Kagen	D-inc.	$155K	$167K
WY-AL	Barbara Cubin	R-inc.	$18K	$9K

A few quick thoughts:

1) Kirsten Gillibrand has been working overtime to deter any strong Republican opposition from forming against her in New York’s 20th district. Her $668,000 raised is simply awe-inspiring. I haven’t gone through each individual filing, but I bet that, aside from members of the House leadership, she made the largest fundraising splash of 2007.

2) Don’t miss Flordia Republican Bill Young’s measley $15,000 raised. Despite Florida Democrats pouring on the heat over his inaction during the Walter Reed scandal and the DCCC actively recruiting potential challengers in the district, Young, who will be 78 on election day, vowed that he would not bend to what he called a “smear campaign” against him. At that level of fundraising, he sure isn’t preparing for much of a brawl.

3) Tim Walberg’s underwhelming total of $136K certainly won’t deter a top-shelf candidate from giving this Club For Growth stooge a hard challenge next year. MI-07 and FL-10 have got to be in the top five Democratic House targets this cycle.

Anything we missed?

Maybe Tom Udall isn’t going to be running for Senate against Pete Domenici in 2008.  What makes me say that is his latest campaign fundraising numbers.  Sure, the numbers look good.  Udall has $712,941 cash on hand after the end of the first quarter.

But when you begin the quarter with $712,873, it’s not all that impressive.  In other words, he netted something under $100 for his fundraising efforts.  Udall raised just $1600 in the first quarter.  I could go on and on on the numbers (the number of “other income” which includes interest and dividends is nearly four times that of the money he raised), but I think you get the point.

More under the fold.  Crossposted at New Mexico FBIHOP.

This doesn’t look like someone gearing up for an intense Senate run against an incumbent of over thirty years. It looks like a safe incumbent who is willing to stay in the position he is at.

Sure, Udall has more cash on hand than Domenici, but if Udall was serious about going after Domenici — or of even scaring Domenici into retirement — he would have been out trying to put up a big number.  Raising $300,000 would have put Udall at twice the amount of money Domenici has at this point.

I’m disappointed that Udall looks to not be interested in running for Senate.  I’m just not sure which credible New Mexico Democrat will step up to the plate to take on Domenici.