Swing State Project

We don’t have a crystal ball.  We never understood Tarot cards.  We can’t read Senator John Warner’s mind.  And we certainly don’t have any informants in the upper ranks of the Virginia Republican Party.

But we do have FEC filings, and they may very well be just as useful to find out whether John Warner is running for another term in the Senate or not.  As you may recall, rumors were floating last month that Warner had signalled his preferred successor, Rep. Tom Davis, to prepare himself to run in his place.  This was amidst news that Mark Warner, the mind-bogglingly popular former Virginia Governor, was considering a Senate run regardless of Warner’s decision.

Well, Tom Davis filed his first quarter fundraising reports today, and money talks:

Tom Davis (R): $623,463 raised; $833k cash-on-hand

$623k almost two years before the next election is an astronomical amount raised for a House campaign.  While I haven’t seen all of the fundraising reports, it could very well be the highest haul of all House members this year.  The next higest fundraising total was a similarly impressive number: $600k for freshman Democrat Ron Klein of Florida.  Klein, however, occupies a bizarrely-drawn district with an insanely expensive media market, so he needed to post a larger-than-average 1Q report to deter any potentially strong challengers.

Stack up Davis’ $623,000 next to Warner’s five Benjamins (yes, that’d be $500 even) raised during the same time frame, and I think we may have some pretty compelling evidence to believe that John Warner is heavily leaning towards retirement.

Let the games begin.

Race Tracker: VA-Sen | VA-11

I wanted to share with everyone a brand new site that we have been putting together over the past couple of months: DC Critters.

This site lists every House and Senate incumbent and the vote totals by county for each race. The site also lists any challenger or potential challenger for the seat in 2008 (the Senate seats that are up in 2010 and 2012 will be updated as candidates announce as well.)

This should be somewhat of a clearinghouse for election data and candidate announcements so we will keep it updated as the candidates begin to announce for 2008.

If you are a data geek like us, this site is pure heaven!

There have been persistent rumors for weeks now that Sen. Orrin Hatch is aggressively seeking to be nominated by President Bush to replace embattled Attorney General Alberto Gonzales. The Nation is the most recent publication to report on the possibility that Hatch could be appointed. If Hatch is named that Republican Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman would appoint an interim senator.

http://bluesunbelt.c…

It is no longer a secret that Hatch is moving aggressively to position himself as the replacement for Attorney General Alberto Gonzales. With the scandal involving Gonzales’ firing of U.S. Attorneys deepening on a daily basis, there is no longer much question that President Bush is going to need someone new to take charge of the Department of Justice. And Hatch has made little secret of the fact that he thinks he is the man for the job.

http://www.thenation…

For those who fear that the disembodied head of Orrin Hatch suspended in a jar will be serving in the U.S. Senate well into the next century, there is good news: Hatch could be up for Attorney General. Utah’s senior senator denies it, but a fellow senator claims Hatch is openly campaigning for the job vacancy after the inevitable departure of embattled AG Alberto Gonzales.

http://www.slweekly….

A rumor floating in Washington D.C. has Utah Senator Orrin Hatch openly campaigning for the nomination to be Attorney General’s job, should Alberto Gonzales step down.

Hatch says the rumors are pure speculation, and that he would never campaign for the job because it would make doing his current job as Senator more difficult.

That speculation came to light on Sunday’s “Meet the Press” program when Vermont Senator Patrick Leahy said Hatch was indeed campaigning for the position – a charge Hatch denies.

http://www.kcpw.org/…

Wow.  It has been a crazy few days in North Carolina.

It started Wednesday with a tiny little story saying that Rep. Brad Miller was thinking about running against Elizabeth Dole.  That was followed up by matching articles in the Charlotte Observer and Raleigh News & Observer on Thursday.

Later Thursday Public Policy Polling conducted a poll, which showed Brad behind Dole, but only 33 to 44.  While that poll is an amazing result, it shows a lot of room for improvement.  For starters, 26% of Democrats are currently undecided.

Friday saw this poll get a plethora of responses, and even got us into a tie for 10th most likely seat to flip over at the WaPo’s The Fix.

Before I start in with the pitch let me give you two reasons why I think Brad would win this race:

“I think she will be judged on her record as a politician in 2008 and not judged as a celebrity, as she was in 2002,” he said. “And she has simply been a down-the-line partisan Republican on every issue from Iraq to privatizing Social Security to opposing the minimum wage increase and supporting CAFTA [the Central America Free Trade Agreement].”

That is Brad from the Charlotte Observer Article.

“I think the advantage I’d have — and any Democrat would have — is I will never have to be briefed on which state I represent in the Senate.”

That is Brad from the Raleigh N&O Article.

One of the easiest ways for the media to measure support is to see how much money a candidate has raised.  The Obama campaign, even as it took in huge sums of money, attempted to upend this mindset by talking about the amount of people that gave money, and not how much money was given.

We are going to do the same thing.  I am asking each and every one of you to donate to the Draft Brad Miller movement.  But, I am not asking for us to raise a thousand or ten thousand dollars.  I am asking for donors.  I do not care if you give 2 dollars and 8 cents.  I would be thrilled if you gave 20.08 or even 200.80  However, we are all on limited budgets.

I am looking for donors.  I am looking for people to put their money where their mouth is and say, “I want Brad Miller to run for US Senate.”  I hope that everyone is able and willing to give 5 dollars to help convince Brad to run.  He needs to know that the netroots will do everything in our power to launch him into office.

Right now we are at 17 donors.  14 of those donations occured before Brad said he was even thinking about running.

By Monday morning I would like to see us at 50 donations.  I would also like to see us at 100 by the end of the week.  We can do this.  I would be much happier to see us at 100 donations with 800 dollars than I would be to see us at 2000 dollars and only 25 donors. 

Brad will need our help fundraising if he decides to run.  However, even he raises double what Jim Webb did in 2006 online, it will only be a small part of what he needs to win this seat.  He is still going to have to spend a large amount of time raising the funds that will be necessary to beat Dole.

BUT, there is one thing that money can not buy.  Committed Volunteers.  By giving 5 dollars you say to Brad, I believe in you, and I will do everything that I have the ability to do to help you out.  Your hours as a volunteer are worth much more than any amount of money you are legally allowed to give to campaigns.  Tell Brad that you are willing to spend them! 

For those of you who still dont believe Brad can win (as if the poll isnt convincing enough!), please stop by either this diary, or this one.  Thank You.

Let me close with another quote, from fellow blogger momaizo of BlueNC

Won’t it be nice to have a Senator that actually represents North Carolinians?

I can’t believe it, but I just finished the last day of classes for my degree.  While it’s a relief, it’s a bit surreal to be finishing college.

I’m going to be going into semi-bunker mode during the next couple of weeks while I write my exams, but I don’t anticipate that the level of posting will dry up too badly, because I was already keeping up with a hectic schedule for the last couple of weeks to begin with!

So, do tell: what’s on your mind?

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Friday Night Discussion Items:

• NV-Gov: Republican Gov. Jim Gibbons–the next Duke Cunningham?
• Chris Cillizza updates his Senate Line.
• LA-Gov: Ugh. Just ugh. (David)

As you can imagine, I am stunned. 

http://blog.nola.com…

Two potential candidates now are former US Rep. Chris John and Lt. Gov. Mitch Landrieu.

I apologize for the brevity of the diary, but I desire to read online reaction to Foti’s decision.  Here are two sources:

http://blog.nola.com…

ryan at Daily Kingfish also has an analysis:

http://www.dailyking…

Breaux will make his decision in a couple of days.

We shall wait some more.

(Give us numbers, people! – promoted by DavidNYC)

Everywhere at once:

• LA-06:

Richard Baker (R-Inc.): $94k raised; $66k cash-on-hand

Wow, is that ever weak.  Considering that Baker is among the top tier of potential Republican candidates rumored to run against Sen. Mary Landrieu next year, this says a lot.  Is he that unenthusiastic to enter a high-profile slugfest?  In any case, he might want to watch himself: Katrina-related demographic changes have made his R+6.5 district a shade bluer.

• PA-06:

Jim Gerlach (R-inc.): $213k raised; $107k cash-on-hand

Mediocre showing for Gerlach, who should never be considered safe in this tossup district.

• MN-06:

Michelle Bachmann (R-inc.): $259k raised; $200k cash-on-hand

It remains to be seen whether or not Minnesota’s 6th district is suffering a serious case of buyer’s remorse after seeing their newly-elected Representative’s death-grip on President Bush on the House floor, or after her claim that she knows of a “secret plan” by Iran to partition Iraq.

• KS-02:

Nancy Boyda (D-inc): $137k raised; $171k cash-on-hand
Jim Ryun (R): $275k raised; $255k cash-on-hand

Oof, that’s a brutal, but unsurprising showing for Boyda.  Any freshman Democrat who occupies a district that Bush won by 20 points should be bracing for the fight of their lives in 2008.  By opting out of the DCCC’s Fronline incumbent protection program earlier in the year, Rep. Boyda has made it clear that she has other priorities, and other ideas on what it takes to win in a district this red.  Her saving grace could come from a nasty primary fight between Ryun and State Treasurer Lynn Jenkins, who comes from the so-called “moderate” wing of the Kansas GOP.  A bloodied Ryun as the Republican nominee would be her best bet for survival.

• NM-01:

Heather Wilson (R-inc.): $274k raised; $250k cash-on-hand

You’re gonna need every penny, Heather…

• KY-Sen:

Mitch McConnell (R-inc.): $1.7 million+ raised; $4.4 million cash-on-hand

Daaaaamn.  It looks like that blood money raised on his behalf by Bush himself can add up quickly.

• PA-04:

Jason Altmire (D-inc.): $300k raised; $200k+ cash-on-hand

• WA-08:

Darcy Burner (D): $17k raised; $38k cash-on-hand

• NY-29:

Eric Massa (D): $7k raised; $2k cash-on-hand

(Bumpedity bumped. – promoted by James L.)

Could this really be true? Via MyDD, John Warner’s campaign finance report for 1Q 2007 – and the first line is really all you need:

Total Receipts: $500

No, I’m not leaving off a “K” at the end there. That’s five hundred dollars even – five Benjamins exactly. Is this for real? Or did some staffer or FEC clerk screw up?

Fact is, I could believe it. I definitely could. Jon Singer over at MyDD thinks that Warner would have to be literally turning money away in order to raise so little. Perhaps he’s just using his dead presidents to light cigars. (But even then, he’d have to report it! So can that theory.) But John Warner is an old man, and he may well be hanging up his spurs.

In that case, clear the path for Mark Warner. And hang on to your hats in VA-11, a dead-even swing district whose current Rep., Tom Davis, is the likely Republican nominee in the event of a John “Five Franklins” Warner retirement.

Race Tracker: VA-Sen | VA-11

(From the diaries with minor editing. Should Brad Miller take the plunge and challenge Dole next year? – promoted by James L.)

Cross posted from Dailykos

On the heels of a quick scoop in the Charlotte Observer last night was a full length article in the Raleigh News & Observer this morning.  That story centered around Rep. Brad Miller (D) contemplating a run against Elizabeth Dole.

“I’m at least going to talk to folks in North Carolina and get a sense of what people are thinking,” Miller said Wednesday.

Following that, Public Policy Polling has released a matchup poll.

TO THE RESULTS!
Dole 44%
Miller 33%
Undecided 22%

Dole’s Job Approval numbers?
43 Approve
40 Dissaprove
Now with crosstabs (PDF!)
Numbers that can only improve:
Amongst Democrats Brad leads 48 to 26 with 26 undecided.  Considering Liddy’s -20 approval rating amongst Dems, this number should shoot up very quickly.
30% of African Americans are currently undecided, and 26% say Dole.  If Brad cant get above 75-90% support by election time I will literally eat my shoe.

Numbers that are already strong:
Dole is as about as high as can be expected amongst Republicans.  70-15.  She wont get much of a boost from her base.
Brad already leads amongst independents, 38-33

As for Brad, and his big decision:
Brad is enjoying his time in the US House, so this is a difficult decision for him:

“There is plenty enough for me to say grace over,” Miller said. “But there is no doubt it would offer a chance to be more involved in more issues.”

However, he had this to say:

“I don’t think it will be an easy race for anybody,” Miller said. “I think a Democrat can win that race. I think the advantage I’d have — and any Democrat would have — is I will never have to be briefed on which state I represent in the Senate.“

Later in the article, Senator Dole’s strategist had this to say: “When you have someone like Senator Dole, who enjoys broad popularity”  Oh really?  Im just gonna post a few tiny little “anecdotes” now:
In January she was at 36 approve and 36 dissaprove
In a February poll, she was up to 43 approve and 31 dissaprove.
In a DSCC poll she managed a lofty 49 approve to 46 dissaprove rating, which was matched by her reelect numbers:

Looking ahead to the next election for U.S. senator, will you vote to reelect Elizabeth Dole, consider voting for someone else, or vote to replace Elizabeth Dole with someone new?
Reelect Dole 35%
Consider someone else 26%
Replace 23%
Depends 9%
Not sure 7%

So, what can you do to turn up the heat?
You can give money here. 
You can contact the DSCC and ask them to help Brad! 
And, you can contat Brad by emailing: brad (at) bradmiller (dot) org

This is an issue where the public is clearly on our side. So the bill came up today and it was 63-34, with Landrieu, Johnson, and Dodd not voting, so basically it was a 66-34 vote. We were just 1 vote away from getting the numbers to override Bush’s veto.

The opponents were 32 Republicans and 2 Dems(Casey and Ben Nelson). 14 of the 21 GOP Senators who are up for re-election in 08 voted against this. Those being Allard(retiring), Chambliss, Coleman, Cornyn, Craig, Dole, Domenici, Graham, Hagel, Inhofe, McConell, Roberts, Sessions and Sununu.

Coleman and Sununu’s names are obviously the two big ones their as their opponents will almost surely use this against them. Dole, and perhaps Cornyn, Craig, and Inhofe are also people who could face competitive elections and their opponents may be able to gain traction using this issue. Also who could forget Ron Sparks as this would be a good issue to use against Sessions.

Also, one thing I just realized is that Frist supported this legislation and his successor, Corker didn’t. Wow, I can’t believe that in one way I actually wish Frist was still in the senate.