Swing State Project

Continuing our analysis of House race expenditures of the 05/06 elections cycle (we looked at the top ten non-party committee expenditures of the cycle on Tuesday), today I’ll be posting total expenditures from the 22 races where a Democratic challenger beat a Republican incumbent (with the exception of TX-23, where I haven’t been able to accumulate all the relevant data yet). And by total, I mean everything except expenditures from the shadowy 527s: candidate expenditures (listed under the “Spent” column), party committee expenditures, and independent expenditures from all sources.

Here’s what I’ve tallied up:

District	Candidate	Spent	DCCC IEs	Other IEs	Incumbent	Spent	NRCC IEs	Other IEs
AZ-05	Mitchell	$1.89M	$2.12M	$1.02M	Hayworth	$2.94M	$2.25M	$7k
CA-11	McNerney	$2.34M	$216k	$1.1M	Pombo	$4.51M	$1.43M	$18k
CT-02	Courtney	$2.37M	$2.07M	$1k	Simmons	$3.09M	$2.74M	$14k
CT-05	Murphy	$2.44M	$2.08M	$975k	Johnson	$4.98M	$1.88M	$456k
FL-22	Klein	$4.14M	$2.31M	$25k	Shaw	$5.19M	$3.35M	$217k
IN-02	Donnelly	$1.49M	$918k	$355k	Chocola	$3.39M	$383k	$43k
IN-08	Ellsworth	$1.72M	$2.21M	$166k	Hostettler	$530k	$1.87M	$21k
IN-09	Hill	$1.86M	$3.08M	$75k	Sodrel	$2.64M	$3.25M	$69k
IA-02	Loebsack	$443k	(none)	(none)	Leach	$519k	$21k	(none)
KS-02	Boyda	$655k	$652k	(none)	Ryun	$1.03M	$272k	(none)
KY-03	Yarmuth	$2.2M	$321k	$5k	Northup	$3.4M	$248k	$1.01M
MN-01	Walz	$1.23M	$371k	$722k	Gutknecht	$1.69M	$409k	$22k
NC-11	Shuler	$1.75M	$171k	$267k	Taylor	$4.11M	$1.54M	$19k
NH-01	Shea-Porter	$286k	(none)	(none)	Bradley	$856k	$21k	(none)
NH-02	Hodes	$1.47M	$1.12M	$198k	Bass	$1.21M	$472k	$24k
NY-19	Hall	$1.57M	(none)	$5k	Kelly	$2.46M	$19k	(none)
NY-20	Gillibrand	$2.47M	$789k	$333k	Sweeney	$3.38M	$592k	(none)
PA-04	Altmire	$1M	$399k	$739k	Hart	$2.17M	$619k	$19k
PA-07	Sestak	$2.92M	$1.93M	$277k	Weldon	$2.89M	$3.56M	$13k
PA-08	Murphy	$2.35M	$1.72M	$189k	Fitzpatrick	$3.13M	$3.62M	$11k
PA-10	Carney	$1.51M	$1.11M	$683k	Sherwood	$2.27M	$1.51M	$10k
Total		$38.1M	$23.6M	$7.1M		$56.4M	$30.1M	$2M

Now, obviously, these numbers don’t tell anything close to the full story–they don’t discern between positive and negative expenditures, the nature of the expenditures, and the time frame of the expenditures. But the basic framework makes it a decent starting point for our discussion. Note that total expenditures from all sources gave the Republicans a nearly $20 million edge ($89M to $69M) in these 21 districts. Also note how the mediocre fundraising of former New Hampshire Reps. Bass ($1.2M) and Bradley ($0.86M) foreshadowed their surprise defeats last November. Another interesting fact: in this top tier of House races, Republican-allied PACs were almost nowhere to be found–in fact, if it weren’t for the $1 million spent by the National Association of Realtors PAC in support of Anne Northup (KY-03), Democrats would’ve enjoyed a 7-to-1 non-party IE advantage in these districts. Instead, they settled for 7-to-2.

Tomorrow I’ll be posting part two of this discussion, featuring expenditures from open seats, competitive races where Democratic challengers fell short, and the few races where Republican House challengers put Democratic incumbents on the defensive.

(Let’s do this thing! – promoted by James L.)

(Adapted from a post at the albany project)

We are very, very excited to announce “Raise New York”, a “blograiser” for SSD-07 candidate Craig Johnson featuring Governor Eliot Spitzer! And when I say “we”, I am referring to, amongst many others, The Daily Gotham, Rochester Turning, Democracy In Albany, onNYTurf, WNYMedia.net, Swing State Project and, of course, us here at TAP.

Raise New York will take place on Thursday, February 1st at Prey in NYC. The event will also be liveblogged here and at Daily Gotham and DailyKos. There will be photos, audio and video in near real time for those who for whatever reason can’t attend in person. It’s gonna be a hoot.

What is so exciting about this event for me is that, besides raising some much needed money for Craig Johnson, it represents a real opportunity for partnership building between the progressive net/grassroots and a state Dem Party establishment  that hasn’t always been so interested in such things. There exists some very real potential for some mending of fences and and some trust building amongst all these groups as they fight for a common goal, namely reforming our joke of a state government.

The very nature of how this event came about is unprecedented as far as I can tell. This has never been done, or done in this way, ever before.

It also represents something potentially very special for the progressive NY blogosphere. It’s a demonstration that we can and will work together towards that common goal when we choose to do so. That’s never happened before and these new relationships could turn into something pretty freaking amazing. In fact, this may be what I find  most exciting.

So please join us for this amazing event! Join us in person or online and let’s do all we can to make ol’ Joe Bruno’s majority one seat more tenuous.

I wanted to share an anecdote from the campaign trail with everyone.  In New York’s Seventh District, Craig Johnson (D-WFP) is running for an open State Senate seat in a special election set for February 6th.

Last night, while Craig Johnson was rallying supporters and the Working Families Party canvass was knocking on doors and talking to people, Craig’s Republican opponent Maureen O’Connell was sitting at home.

From Spin Cycle:

“One of Nassau Legis. Craig Johnson’s canvassers in the state Senate race ran into Johnson’s opponent, Republican County Clerk Maureen O’Connell, after the campaign worker got a little lost Monday evening.

O’Connell had just pulled into a driveway in the East Williston neighborhood when the canvasser, needing directions, approached her. As they talked, the canvasser recognized O’Connell and she realized she was talking to one of her opponent’s foot soldiers. They exchanged pleasantries and wished each other luck.”

Now, since the WFP is running the canvass, I can give you the inside story straight from the canvasser who talked to her:

“A little after 5:30, I was trying to find an address on my  turf and was looking from the sidewalk at a number on one of the houses from the  street to determine if it was on my walk list.  A woman saw me looking at her house and came out to ask if she could help me.

I recognized her as Maureen O’Connell as soon as she came out because she had an O’Connell lawn sign and I’m friends with one of her former Assembly opponents.  I decided to exchange pleasantries, and we each did some campaigning and talked about the situation in Albany.  Then she realized I was part of the WFP canvass campaigning for Craig Johnson, and we wished each other good luck and parted ways.  I kept canvassing for the rest of the night and she went back inside.”

Gonna have to work harder than that to win this race.

21 more days until Election Day!

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Over the past few weeks, I’ve been spending a bit of time doing research into independent expenditures made by party committees and independent PACs to get a better sense of how the IE battle played out in many key races across the country. One of the things that I thought would be interesting to share with you all is a top ten list, for both our side and theirs, of the biggest non-party committee expenditures of the cycle for House races. Here’s what the Republican-allied side looks like:

District	Candidate	Committee	For/Against	Total Expenditures
KY-03	NORTHUP, ANNE	NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS PAC	For	$1,004,275.00
NM-01	WILSON, HEATHER	NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS PAC	For	$761,734.00
ID-01	GRANT, LARRY	CLUB FOR GROWTH INC PAC	Against	$441,437.17
CT-05	JOHNSON, NANCY	AMERICAN MEDICAL ASSOCIATION PAC	For	$318,426.00
FL-22	SHAW, CLAY	AMERICAN MEDICAL ASSOCIATION PAC	For	$202,179.00
GA-06	PRICE, THOMAS	PAC OF THE AMERICAN ASSOCIATION OF ORTHOPAEDIC SURGEONS	For	$200,000.00
AZ-08	GRAF, RANDY	MINUTEMAN PAC INC	For	$115,482.80
CT-05	JOHNSON, NANCY	PAC OF THE AMERICAN ASSOCIATION OF ORTHOPAEDIC SURGEONS	For	$100,000.00
FL-08	KELLER, RIC	NATIONAL RESTAURANT ASSOCIATION PAC	For	$100,000.00
IA-01	WHALEN, MIKE	NATIONAL RESTAURANT ASSOCIATION PAC	For	$100,000.00

And here’s what our side looks like:

District	Candidate	Committee	For/Against	Total Expenditures
OH-01	CHABOT, STEVE	AMERICAN FEDERATION OF STATE COUNTY & MUNICIPAL EMPLOYEES	Against	$620,670.00
OH-15	PRYCE, DEBORAH	AMERICAN FEDERATION OF STATE COUNTY & MUNICIPAL EMPLOYEES	Against	$530,425.00
VA-02	DRAKE, THELMA	MOVEON.ORG POLITICAL ACTION	Against	$529,537.70
CT-05	JOHNSON, NANCY	AMERICAN FEDERATION OF STATE COUNTY & MUNICIPAL EMPLOYEES	Against	$514,354.00
AZ-05	HAYWORTH, JD	NEA FUND FOR CHILDREN AND PUBLIC EDUCATION	Against	$480,763.99
CA-11	POMBO, RICHARD	DEFENDERS OF WILDLIFE ACTION FUND	Against	$470,004.36
IL-08	BEAN, MELISSA	NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE	For	$465,568.00
CT-05	JOHNSON, NANCY	MOVEON.ORG POLITICAL ACTION	Against	$444,424.00
OH-15	PRYCE, DEBORAH	MOVEON.ORG POLITICAL ACTION	Against	$417,623.00
PA-10	SHERWOOD, DON	AMERICAN FEDERATION OF STATE COUNTY & MUNICIPAL EMPLOYEES	Against	$361,750.00

Aside from a few big players (most notably the National Realtors PAC, who also made considerable expenditures on behalf of Ed Case‘s primary challenge to Sen. Daniel Akaka, as well as Melissa Bean’s re-election campaign), there is a steep drop-off on the Republican side in terms of the number and quality of IEs relative to the robust and broadly-focused expenditures made by Democratic-allied PACs. Another thing to note is that these Republican expenditures are listed as disproportionately positive, while the Democratic expenditures were disproportionately classified as negative expenditures. Keep in mind, though, that such homogenous categories may betray the shades of grey that exist in such expenditures–this money could have been spent on advertising that contained a mix of positive and negative messages, but the particular committee may have chosen to file an expenditure as “for” a candidate rather than “against” someone else.

I’m still puttering around with a lot more numbers like these, so if anyone has any other research suggestions under the category of expenditures, please feel free to make a suggestion.

The DCCC has recently released some notes indicating that they plan on targeting Rep. Vito Fossella (NY-13), my favorite candidate for retirement, rather hard in his quest for a seventh term in 2008.  This from their press release on Jan 12, 2006;

The 2006 cycle proved that ethics matters to average voters. While there were several Republicans defeated this past cycle as a direct result of their ethical lapses, a handful returned to Washington and should be considered among the most vulnerable.

We will aggressively work in districts targeting ethically challenged incumbents like Tim Murphy (PA-18), Gary Miller (CA-42), Rick Renzi (AZ-01), John Doolittle (CA-04), Jerry Lewis (CA-41) and Vito Fossella (NY-13).

First off, if this is an indication of how Rep. Chris Van Hollen will lead the DCCC efforts to pick up more seats in 2008, then by all means my enthusiasm is going to be hard to keep subdued.  However I, like many of us have been burnt by the DCCC in the past, so I am not jumping into this new relationship naively thinking things will be different this time.  In 2004 the DCCC or some individuals associated with the group lead our Democratic candidate Frank Barbaro to believe that they were ready to interject some money into the race.  That money was always just around the corner.  They just toyed with our emotions for a bit and eventually stood us up.  If that was heartbreaking then 2006 just incensed us and lead many to swear off dancing with the DCCC ever again.  After many of the local officials slowly backed out of the race, Stephen Harrison a local lawyer stepped up to take on Rep. Fossella and walked into the nomination due to his fighting spirit.  After being vetted by the local party and being given the nod we find out that the DCCC decided to involve itself, backing a city council member who lived outside the district, in March just eight months before the election. 

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC), which bankrolls House races, yesterday said it would embrace de Blasio’s candidacy. (Staten Island Advance)

De Blasio, whom was being backed by Rep. Rangel, eventually backed out after a month of indecision, leaving Harrison to focus on Rep. Fossella.  One of the bigger problems with this fiasco is that New York state has a late September primary.  This makes a divisive primary an ineffective spring board to then take on a Republican incumbent in under two months.

Curiously though it wasn’t until long after this past November that I came across this piece in the New York Sun from June 28, 2005;

New York Democrats are not alone in their efforts to win the Fossella seat. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has already started priming the 13th Congressional District for 2006.

SNIP

Over Memorial Day weekend, it paid for radio advertisements attacking Mr. Fossella’s vote against a measure that would have expanded Tricare, the military health-insurance program.

SNIP

The organization also commissioned a poll that matched Mr. Fossella with three potential Democratic challengers: City Council Member Michael McMahon, Assemblyman Michael Cusick, and state Senator Diane Savino.

SNIP

In addition to the Congressional Campaign Committee’s efforts, the Seattle-based Democratic Advancement Political Action Committee, a group created in 2002 to raise money for Democratic candidates nationwide, plans to organize grassroots field operations once a Democratic candidate is chosen.

I am bewildered as to where all of this is coming from.  DCCC funded polling?  DCCC funded radio advertising?  Organizing grassroots field operations?  Not surprisingly after the DCCC slumped away from the district eleven months later, no polling was done by the DCCC even though indications were that Fossella had internal polling showing him in trouble.  No radio ads were purchased by the DCCC.  No grassroots field operations were established.  Harrison went on to give Fossella the most competitive race yet, holding him to 57-43 (59-41 in 2004), being outspent by a margin of 13:1. 

And to make this flirtation worse, it was just back in June 2006, after the DCCC backed out of the race, that they put out a press release attacking three Republicans for their unethical lavish travels; Rep. Pombo (since defeated), Rep. Sweeney (since defeated) and Rep. Fossella.  We have heard the story before.

So it is not without some trepidation that I re-read that DCCC statement that they will be going after Fossella in 2008.  But not all developments are worrisome.  On December 18, 2006 I suggested that Rep. Fossella should be moved to new committees, instead of continually rewarding him with seats on both the House Committee on Energy and Commerce and the House Committee on Financial Services.  The reasoning is obvious;

The side benefit, and reason for suggesting these moves is that Rep. Fossella receives large amounts of financial support from the industries that benefit from limited oversight by these two committees; financial institutions and real estate/housing. Fossella’s largest sector donations come from the Finance, Insurance and Real Estate sector, a total of nearly $1.5 million in donations and influence, $358,790 of that just in the last election cycle.

2004-06 Donors (via Opensecrets.org)
1. Securities & Investment: $109,500
3. Real Estate: $86,050
4. Insurance: $60,250
5. Health Professionals: $52,700
7. Accountants: $37,400
9. Commercial Banks: $33,790

So it was with renewed excitement, and new found ability to control the minds of our new Democratic majority leaders, that news broke that Fossella was forced to give up one of his committee assignments.  In the end he choose to leave the House Committee on Financial Services, the largest sector donor to his campaigns.  It also made me appear to know what I was talking about back in December;

Should Fossella get moved from one of his committees he served on last term (04-06) consider that a good sign that this seat is on the DCCC’s list in 08 and that they are going to start the race early.

The actual implications of both of these developments will be more apparent next year, however right now we can see that Fossella’s fund raising abilities should be drastically impacted.  Without some unforeseen major fund raising prowess, Fossella could have trouble cracking $1 million.  To make matters worse for him, he ended his 2006 campaign over $200,000 in debt.  From what I have seen this campaign debt is a first for Fossella, who tends to carry over a nice chunk of cash meaning Democrats typically start out well behind.

So is this seat really in play or are we just setting ourselves up to be stood up and heart broken by the DCCC once again?  That answer will no doubt have a lot to do with who jumps into this race and how effective they are at early fund raising and early volunteer support.  You can follow speculation at 2008 Race Tracker.  However, if Fossella is one of the most ethically challenged (=corrupt) Republicans, can the DCCC really walk away from this district again? 

http://ny13.blogspot…

So the Minimum Wage increase got 82 Republican House votes, which on face is encouraging but in my mind it begs an important question. Why did it take nine years and Democratic Control of the House to actually get a Minimum Wage increase passed?

Excluding the two Freshman. 80 Republican Members of Congress voted for the Minimum Wage Increase. Now clearly on  some issues small minorities within a party often don’t break with their parties leadership on issues because of the danger . But this was by no means a small minority.  80 Republicans represented more than a third of the entire Caucus at the time.  This group could have easily forced the House Leadership to pass a Minimum wage increase that the Senate could have passed without linking  it to the Estate tax. I know there are many not in these parts but some in the party who would  think that now we are in the Majority we should be less aggressive in defeating Republicans who could be useful to us, better to focus on defending the seats we have.  Just remember that it is these 80 Republicans who kept the poorest workers in this country from getting a raise, not because they don’t believe in the Minimum Wage but because they didn’t have the courage to stand up to Tom Delay and Company.  It will take a lot more acts of actual political courage for me to believe any of these Members of Congress has truly changed.  So to the Shays’, Wilsons’ and Gelachs’ of the world, speaking for no one but myself, I am still coming to send you into the private sector.

The “80”  Should haves.
Aderholt
Alexander
Bachus
Biggert
Bonner
Bono
Bozeman
Brown Waite
Capito
Castle
Crenshaw
Davis  KY
Jo Ann Davis
L Diaz-Balart
M Diaz-Balart
Duncan
Ehlers
Emerson
English
Everett
Ferguson
Forbes
Fossella
Frelinghuysen
Gerlach
Gilchrest
Gillmor
  Goode
Goodlatte
Hayes
Hulshof
Jindal
Johnson IL
Jones  NC
Keller
King NY
Kirk
Kuhl
LaHood
Latham
LaTourette
LoBiondo
Marchant
McCotter
McHugh
Miller MI
Moran KS
Tim Murphy
Peterson PA
Petri
Platts
Poe
Pryce OH
Ramstad
Regula
Reichert
Renzi
Rogers AL
Rogers KY
Ros-Lehtinen
Saxton
Schmidt
Shays
Shimkus
Simpson
Smith NJ
Smith TX
Stearns
Turner 
Upton
Walden OR
Walsh NY
Wamp
Weller
Whitfield
Wilson
Wolf
Young AK
Young FL

Since the infamous 1984 House election that was decided by a mere four votes, Indiana’s Eighth District has been a swing district that is fiercely fought for every two years.  Former Sheriff Brad Ellsworth’s recent 24% victory over incumbent Republican Congressman John Hostettler, however,  may herald a new era of less competitive races for this seat. Ellsworth’s strong fundraising ability, culturally conservative and fiscally conservative views combined with his telegenic presence will likely help him lock down this swing district.  The Eighth’s departure from its perennial spot on competitive House seat lists will leave a void for another microcosmic, marginal district; that is, in fact,  another  one called the “Eighth”, North Carolina’s Eighth District, to be precise.

The 8th has had a political history. The District shifted hands in 1960, 1968, 1974 and 1998 and it had close races  in 1984, 1988, 1994 and in 2006. This district is naturally polarized between the Central North Carolina Counties that are ancestrally Republican and the Eastern Counties that are full of Yellow Dog Democrats. The population parity of the Republican Textile Counties and the more Democratic rural counties contribute to the close elections in this district. The  2000 Almanac of American Politics notes the  1998 court ordered re-redistricting plan removed conservative Iredell, Moore and  Rowan counties from the 8th district and replaced them with predominately Democratic precincts. This move was meant to shore up Rep. Bill Hefner (D), who instead decided to retire in 1998.

His replacement was textile owner Republican Robin Hayes who won an open seat in a tough political environment for Republicans by 51%-49% over an underfunded political neophyte. Hayes then faced a rematch against Democrat Mike Taylor in 2000. Hayes exploited the political advantage of running as a Southern Republican in a Presidential election and he used pork barrel  projects to court public favor en route to a 11% victory.  Hayes wasn’t safe yet. The Democratic legislature added even more of Democratic Mecklenburg County and the Democrats nominated a local lawyer named Chris Kouri. Kouri and Hayes’ 2004 opponent lacked resources, charisma and experience.

Rep. Hayes’ low key nature helped him stay below the political radar of National Democrats, but unlike nearly all Southern Republican Congressman, Hayes’ district actually trended Democratic in the 2000’s – Bush’s victory percentage declined by 2% in 2004, despite going up by 3% nationally.
The 2006 election created a proverbial perfect storm for Democrats, but it later became a missed opportunity. In early 2005, the Congress voted 217-215 to approve the Central American Free Trade Agreement (CAFTA), which put many North Carolinan textile workers at risk.  The deciding vote was cast by a Congressman named Robin Hayes, whose controversial vote left him vulnerable back at home. Instead of targeting Hayes, who occupies a a marginal district, Democrats ignored it and focused on helping former NFL player Heath Shuler in his run against GOP Rep. Charles Taylor. Taylor had won reelection in 2004 by a similar margin to Hayes, but he occupied an even more Republican district. The reason why the DCCC targeted the 11th and not the 8th  was likely candidate recruitment.

After Iraq War Vet Tim Dunn announced his bid for Congress in the 8th, Rahm Emanuel and the DCCC pledged their full support. Dunn’s campaign was plagued by fundraising troubles and he eventually dropped out before the primary. The remaining viable candidate in the district was a “Fourth tiered recruit” named Larry Kissell. Kissell was an 8th grade geography teacher, and ironically, a former textile worker. Kissell’s  matchup vs. the former textile owner was a David vs. Goliath race in more ways than one.  Hayes enjoyed a 7-1 cash advantage over Kissell.

For most of 2006, Hayes led by double digits. The turning point came when Kissell’s  campaign offered gas at $1.22 a gallon, the  same price it was when Hayes was elected to Congress. Kissell gained a huge boost from the Mark Foley scandal in early October. By early November, it was clear Kissell was on the verge of an upset. The combination of the War in Iraq, an unpopular  President and Congress also chipped away at Goliath. In the end, Hayes prevailed by the second closest margin in the Country – just 339 votes.  Had the DCCC had the foresight to target this race, an provided badly needed financial support,  Kissell would have won.

The problem now is what to do in 2008. Taylor’s rematch in 2000 flopped because of the increased conservative turnout. Another factor working against Kissell is that Hayes now understands his vulnerability — he won’t be caught politically sleepwalking like he was in 2006. Recent history isn’t sanguine for comeback candidates like Kissell.  In a similarly split district, Pat Casey lost an open seat race  to Don Sherwood in 1998 by only 515 votes, but he lost by 6% in 2000.

If the Democrats succeed in passing their agenda and nominate an attractive Presidential candidate like Barack Obama or Bill Richardson, they can win Republican districts like this one. If they remain divided on Iraq and nominate Hillary Clinton, this bellwether district will stick with Rep. Robin Hayes. On Election 2008, watch North Carolina’s Eighth – as the new “Bloody Eighth” goes, so goes the country.

As you may know, a Republican-held state Senate seat has opened up in New York, giving the Dems a chance to narrow the GOP’s already-tiny lead in this body (33-28 as of today). A special election will be held on Feb. 6th in the 7th state Senate district on Long Island. Democrats have selected Nassau County Legislator Craig Johnson as our nominee, and from everything I’ve heard, he’s popular, well-liked and considered to be a strong candidate.

This is going to be an incredibly hard-fought race, though, despite this district’s Dem leanings. The state Senate is the last bastion of power for the Republican Party – they won’t just stop at teeth and nails to hold on to this seat. So I just plunked down $100.01 to help Johnson, and I hope you can contribute as well. (ActBlue is not yet activated for NY state candidates, but if want to put “Swing State Project” in the comment box, we can try checking in with the campaign after the election to see how we did. Of course, don’t forget to add a penny for the Internets!)

And if you are in the area and want to help volunteer, you can fill out this form. Most of Johnson’s site appears to be held over from his prior election campaign, so I’m not certain if the volunteer form is still working properly – though I can tell you for a fact that my donation went through without a hitch. No word yet on whether there will be any virtual phone-banking, but if I hear anything, I’ll relay it, of course.

This is the first battle of the new year. Let’s show `em that we aren’t resting on our laurels.

UPDATE: NYBri says that folks can also give via the NY Democratic Party, and that allegedly 100% of money given through this page will go to Johnson’s race.

By my count, there were 76 Republican freshmen elected in 1994. (Thirty-four beat incumbent Dems, 24 won Dem-held open seats, and another 18 held on to GOP-held open seats.) According to the Cook Political Report, twelve of these frosh went on to lose their first re-election campaigns in 1996.

Who were these one-term wonders?

From The Albany Project

I would imagine, the easy speculation as to why Craig is getting my support, time, effort and some money, is that he is a Democrat running for the State Senate, something I just did myself. But that would be selling Craig (and me) a bit short.

First of all, I have met Craig and find him to be engaging, energetic and passionate about his job (serving the people of his county legislative district), and, quite frankly, I think he would make a good State Senator for the people in the 7th District. But, what sold me is the fact that he is passionate about reforming the absolute mess in Albany.

In preparation for the TAP Book Club with Seymour Lachman, I am reading “Three Men In A Room.” I’m hoping that everyone does the same and joins us for the discussion at The Albany Project on January 29th, but, by doing so, you’ll understand why Craig Johnson is getting my full support.

Lachman is very detailed in outlining the dysfunction in Albany, and he has pointed out that there is enough blame to go around for Democrats and Republicans alike. It’s not really a partisan problem, it’s an incumbency problem.

Presently, our State Government is playing the old blame game. Each of the three branches of government in Albany has a foil against which they rail. It’s the Democratic Assembly’s fault, or the Republican Senate’s fault, or the Governor’s fault, and the real winner is the status quo. In Albany, the status quo stinks…of corruption, payola and patronage. BUT, as Lachman points out, the status quo is also everybody’s friend…the lobbyist’s, big money’s, the legislator’s, the Governor’s. Because of that, here is no impetus or desire to change the matrix.

This has been going on for decades, and the last election, didn’t help. Nothing changed. It was a huge victory for the status quo at the expense of the citizens of New York. The Same Old, Same Old Party won…we all lost.

So, why Johnson and the Senate? Why not the Assembly? Quite simply, because there is an election on February 6th that has the potential of completely shaking things up. If the Democrats win this seat, speculation has it that the days of the Republican Majority in the Senate are numbered…and may not even make it to the next election (through retirement and party switching…don’t get me started about that)…and if the Senate changes hands, the path will finally be clear for the beginnings of reform.

The game won’t be the same. The status quo will be forced to the back bench. You see, the Assembly will no longer be able play pretend…pass reform legislation knowing it’s going nowhere and say, “I tried. I’m a reformer. It’s Bruno’s fault!” They will have to cast votes that will –gasp– actually count. And the Democratic Senators will be in the same boat. They will have no excuses anymore. They will control the rules committee, the redistricting process, the budget process and can call for a Constitutional Convention which is what we really need to give us all, Republicans and Democrats alike, our state government back…because, at the moment, it doesn’t belong to anyone except the Albany insiders and those Three Men. No more blame game. No more play pretend. Our legislators will be forced to either reform this mess and become true representatives, or be seen as self-serving opportunists who are there to protect the status quo and get re-elected.

It’s time take a roll call. Are you a reformer, or do you just play one on TV?

So, that’s why I’m supporting Craig Johnson. He is, through chance and choice, at the crossroads of reform of our State Government. If you want to shake things up, I am encouraging you to endorse him as well. Keep checking The Albany Project for ways and opportunities to do just that.