Swing State Project

Joe Mondello, Chair of the New York state GOP and of the Nassau County GOP, has a lot riding on the Feb 6 special election for an open New York State Senate seat in the Seventh Senate District.  It’s the first election under his watch as chair of the state GOP, it’s happening in his backyard, and it’s a test of how the state GOP will respond to their drubbing in the 2006 Governor’s race.

So maybe that’s why Joe chose to be a little, shall we say, extravagant with the truth.  From a New York Times article on the race:

The campaign is off to a quick start. “We had 500 people going door to door last weekend, and we hope to have 700 this weekend,” Mr. Mondello said. Democrats say they have an equally ambitious field operation. Their county chairman, Jay S. Jacobs, said that with an expected 10 to 15 percent voter turnout, “the ground game is the decider.”

Yeah right.

Details after the jump.

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Now it is right that the ground game is the decider.  And the Working Families Party is running an ambitious field operation, that’s right too.

But there’s no way the state Republicans have 100 people going door to door, much less 500 or 700.  The thing about canvassing is, if you’re out there canvassing for hours and the other side is out there canvassing for hours then each side’s canvassers are going to run into each other.  But I asked our 45 canvassers, who are knocking on thousands of doors every night, if they’ve seen a GOP door knocker.

The word from the Working Families Party canvass is that yesterday is the first day O’Connell had people on the doors, and it was only a handful of people.

And it’s not like we stick to the areas where turnout has historically been in our favor.  Our targeting is pretty advanced, so we can pick out the voters likely to go our way even in areas that don’t look promising overall.  So we’d be running into any GOP door knockers that are out there.  A couple of nights ago, we were in Maureen O’Connell’s home turf, near her house, and we didn’t see any GOP door knockers.  Not a one.

So I’m asking you. Campaign volunteers were deep in Republican turf in Mineola on Saturday, with not a single Republican walker spotted. If you were out there knocking on doors for Craig, did you see any of Joe Mondello’s imaginary friends?

16 days until Election Day!

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I often wonder what value I provide the world by giving it  lists of  vulnerable Republicans. This is my best an attempt at answer. The Stem Cell Research Bill was Thirty Seven votes short of being veto-proof in the house. There are actually 37  Republicans who voted against it  .  So if Stem Cell Research is your big issue , these are I believe the  members  you want to hit the most for it.  I might be wrong or right. It is merely my best guess.  The point is this is how you move issues, as well just partisanship.[I am a partisan so if you want to beat the 16 Democratic opponents of Stem Cell ask someone else. ]  It is useful to know when someone votes against their district if you are trying to mount an issue campaign against them.  So without further ado, the Republicans who voted against their district on Stem Cell Research.

Bachmann
Bilirakis
Buchanan
Camp
Chabot
L Diaz-Balart
M. Diaz-Balart
Drake
English
Feeney
Ferguson
Gallegly
Garrett
Hayes
Keller
King [NY]
Kline
Knollenberg
Kuhl
Lahood
Latham
LoBiondo
McCotter
McHugh
Tim Murphy
Renzi
Reynolds
Rogers
Ros-Lehtinen
Roskam
Ryan
Saxton
Smith[NJ]
Tiberi
Walberg
Walsh
Weller
Wolf

I think someone may have announced their run for Presidency today.

On Tuesday, we looked at the biggest non-party independent expenditures of 2006 in House races, and yesterday, we looked at expenditures of all kinds in 22 of the 23 races where Democratic challengers beat House Republican incumbents. Let’s pick up where we left off and take a look at the heartbreakers of 2006–34 competitive races where the Democratic candidate fell short of toppling an incumbent.

How do we define “competitive”? Well, in this study, I used a compromise of a number of metrics: races where either party committee made significant expenditures, races where the incumbent had a margin of victory under 15%, races with significant (usually $1M+) challenger expenditures, and races with significant independent expenditures. In most of these cases, there is significant overlap between those guidelines of “competitiveness”.

As usual, the “Spent” column indicates candidate expenditures, and “Other IEs” includes all independent expenditures made by PACs who filed with the FEC, but not 527 activity. I have also added a column on the far right indicating the incumbents’ margin of victory. In most cases I used Secretary of State numbers, but in a few races I relied upon CNN. All numbers were subject to rounding.

Notes: *This expenditure was made by the RNC, not the NRCC.

**Due to the labyrinthian backstory of Jean Schmidt’s travails in OH-02 from 2005-06, it’s difficult to sort out which expenditures apply to which period of her career: the special election of 2005, the primary battle last spring, and the 2006 general. I did my best to sort it out, but the picture isn’t entirely clear. For that reason, take these figures with a grain of salt.

Unsurprisingly, Republicans enjoyed more of a financial edge in these races; combining all expenditures, there was a nearly $30 million gap between Republican and Democratic expenditures in these 34 districts. The NRCC did not swamp out the DCCC in these districts by a large margin. NRCC/RNC buys amounted to 55% of the party committee expenditures, while the DCCC was responsible for the remainder. This is very close to the 56-44 NRCC ratio in the seats that the Democrats did pick up from incumbents.

Obviously, this list will bring up some woulda-coulda-shouldas: imagine what Larry Kissell or Eric Massa or Linda Stender could have accomplished with more DCCC IEs, for instance. But it should also highlight some badly underperforming incumbents for next time: Knollenberg in MI-09, Terry in NE-02, and Dent in PA-15, for instance, all posted very underwhelming returns given the financial uncompetitiveness of each of their races.

Oh, and speaking of Linda Stender, here’s one maddening note from last November’s results: if the 3176 votes that the “Withdraw Troops Now Party” candidate won in NJ-07 had been cast for Stender instead, she would have won by about 250 votes. Sigh.

On the weekend, I’ll conclude this series with expenditure round-ups for competitive open seats and the select districts where Democratic incumbents were on the defensive.

It’s four years off in the horizon, but it’s never too early to plan ahead for open seat Senate races.  From CQ, comes word that Presidential hopeful Chris Dodd has determined that, one way or another, this will be his last term in the Senate:

Sen. Christopher Dodd, through his counsel, has sent a letter to the Federal Election Commission stating he “is no longer a candidate in the 2010 election for the United States Senate in Connecticut.”

Do you have a favorite to replace Dodd in four years?  A comebacker for Ned Lamont, perhaps?  Or maybe a promition for rising star Chris Murphy?  CT’s Attorney General, Richard Blumenthal, has long been rumored to have higher aspirations, but has been hindered by a lack of openings at the top of the ticket (and his unwillingness to challenge popular Republican Gov. Jodi Rell last November).  Has his time passed, or is this just the opening that he’s been waiting for?

On the flip side, who might be the Republican standard-bearer?  Chris Shays, who could prove formidable, will be 65 in 2010.  Rob Simmons, who lost narrowly to Democrat Joe Courtney last year, will be even older (67).  I can’t seem to find Blumenthal’s date of birth on the ‘net.

Update: Looks like we might be jumping the gun here, according to Hotline On Call:

Well, while legally true, CT Dems shouldn’t start licking their chops about the supposed “open seat” in three years. In order to transfer all of his money he raised for his 2010 re-election to his WH campaign account without penalty, he had to file a statement with the FEC saying he wouldn’t run. It’s simply an accounting thing, nothing more. In fact, should Dodd not be elected POTUS in ’08, he, indeed can legally open a new Senate 2010 account. He did this so that he could raise maximum amounts from donors who gave to that 2010 campaign account.

An inquiry to Dodd’s campaign about the above mentioned story prompted the following response from spokesperson Beneva Schulte: “It’s a legality that isn’t an indication of future plans.”

Dodd will be 64 in 2008.  Presumably, he should have enough gas in the tank for another term or two.  Or he could pull a Bob Graham.  We’ll see.

The Craig Johnson for State Senate web site is live – check it out at http://www.craigjohnsonforsenate.com/

Craig Johnson (D-WFP) is running for an open State Senate seat in New York’s Seventh Senate District on February 6th.  The Working Families Party has launched a major field operation to elect Craig Johnson, follow the action at WFP Blog.

18 days until Election Day!

So this is the second month of tracking the Top 50 House Pick Up Chances in the country. What is the most amazing about a project like this is the amount of new information there already is to switch decisions  about races. We have about  7 votes in the House that could be used  against certain Republicans in the House . We also have a new DCCC list of where they are looking to go in terms of targeting. In addition to the information from last month  I will include change as well reason for change

The Top 50 races

1. MI 7
  Republican Tim Walberg
  06 Winning Percentage  51%
  04 Bush Percentage  54%
  Reason for Weakness
  Tim Walberg is the most vulnerable Republican member of Congress because running against an opponent in a general election who spent only $ 55,000,.  He got just 51% in a 54% Bush District. His defeat of a Congressman Schwarz who was widely liked  will cause him problems.  If the Democrats can find a centrist in the Schwarz model we should be able to defeat this Freshman.

Change No Change
Reason: Tim Walberg has already cast his lot like the Right Wing Republican we expected including a no vote on the Minimum Wage,  the only issue is that lots of Republicans now seem to be circling  as well.

2. PA 15
  Republican Charlie Dent
  06 Winning Percentage  53%
  04 Bush Percentage 50%
  Reasons for Weakness
  Charlie Dent has only been re-elected once in now one of only eight Republicans to hold a seat that John Kerry won .  He also was one of only two incumbents in Kerry won districts not to have a well-financed challenger. The fact that he was only able to get 53% under these circumstance means that he is a very good target for defeat. 

Change  No change
Reason Charlie Dent remains vulnerable and  the DCCC now list him a such. This race will remain very hot
3.. FL 8
  Republican Ric Keller
  06 Winning Percentage 53%
  04 Bush Percentage  55%
  Reasons for Weakness
  You never want to run below the President of Your own Party in your district and this is exactly what happened to Ric Keller. This is particularly bad in a state where Republican loses were less than in other states. His 53% against a good but not great opponent in a peripherally targeted race was trouble enough, but he is now breaking a term limits and already has a republican primary challenger.

Change Up
Reason: On reflection Ric Keller seems even more vulnerable, and his rushing out to oppose Iraq would make sense for someone more vulnerable.

4.  NV 3 
  Republican Jon Porter
  06 Winning Percentage 48%
  04 Bush Percentage 50%
  Reasons for Weakness
  As a Member of Congress you never want to be getting less than 50% and that is exactly the position that Jon Porter find himself as he confronts life in the minority.  The Democrat was able to get 47%  with 5% going else where. If the Democrats can recruit a slightly more experience candidate and Ms. Hafen now counts. This race will be extremely close.
Change Down
Reason: Keller had to move up and therefore Porter had to move down  He remains  very vulnerable and is DCCC rated as such

5. WA 8
  Republican Dave Reichert 
  06 Winning Percentage  ?
  04 Bush Percentage  48%
  Reasons for Weakness
  A two term Congressman from one of eight Kerry won Republican held seats is by definition vulnerable, also a minority member. That he was able to get only 51% in both cycles adds to that vulnerability. This race will be very tight again. The Presidential should be helpful.
Change None
Reason. Reichert remains a Republican in a Democrat district who by an extremely small percentage and who just seems vulnerable 

6. AZ 1
  Republican Rick Renzi
  06 Winning Percentage 51%
  04 Bush Percentage 54%
  Reasons for Weakness
  Hints of corruption, a weak re-election performance including running behind the President of your own party and being a relatively junior member now in the minority these are the challenges now faced by Rick Renzi.  This is a member who is beatable.

Change Up
Reason: The DCCC lists it as vulnerable because of ethics issues that alone should make him more vulnerable.

7. CA 4
  Republican John Doolittle
  06 Winning Percentage 49%
  04 Bush Percentage 61%
  Reasons for Weakness
  A congressperson never wants to get  less than 50%, when that is combined with such a massive running behind of party ID It shows a member with a serious problem. The large amount spent on the legal defense fund might be why.  If Charlie Brown gives it another shot this could be a race.  We sure should make sure it is.
Change Up
Reason: The increased likelihood of Charlie Brown’s running again  makes Doolittle vulnerable as does the DCCC ranking  the district in its  ethically challenged catergory.

8. NJ 7
  Republican Mike Ferguson
  06 Winning Percentage  49%
  04 Bush Percentage 53%
  Reasons for Weakness
  Another Republican under 50% spells danger  for him. He also  is still a relative junior member just reaching the minority  for the first time.  Linda Stender should be encouraged to make the challenge again and regardless this can be a very close race.  Ferguson’s position on social issues are also out of step for the district.
Change Up
Reason: The Democratic Convention in Denver will make beating Marilyn Musgrave more difficult he drop allows this district to move up.

9.NC 8
  Republican Robin Hayes
  06 Winning Percentage 50%
  04 Bush Percentage  54%
  Reasons for Weakness
  Winning by less than 500 vote against the same opponent who was generally under-funded last time is all one needs to make the top ten list of vulnerable members, I think Larry Kissell should be the first person on the New Blue Majority List.
Change Up
Reason: Same as above

10. CO 4
  Republican Marilyn Musgrave
  06 Winning Percentage 46%
  04 Bush Percentage 58%
  Reasons for Weakness
  46% is a terrible number for an Incumbent.  It means serious problems particularly when your last election performance before was already 7% the President behind that of the President of your own party.
Change Down
Reason: In a traditionally Republican part of a trending Democratic State, CO 4 is likely to re-act slightly against the Democratic Tide. This just make beating Musgrave more difficult and it is more important to win Colorado in the Presidential than beating Marilyn Musgrave.

11. MI 9
  Republican Joe Knollenberg
  06 Winning Percentage 52%
  04 Bush Percentage 51%
  Reasons for Weakness
  This was probably the worst under-target in the nation besides PA 15 with less reasons  for it. The good news however is that Joe Knollenberg now a minority member spent a huge amount of money his campaign money just to hold on.  He is also relatively old so a retirement would not be surprising. Either way this seat should be a top priority.  Nancy Skinner was a very good candidate that not only the DCCC but us in the Netroots missed as well. If  she runs again I think supporting  her would be justified.
Change None
Reason, If anything this spot holds the best because it is now a DCCC target.

12.  IL 14
  Republican Dennis Hastert
  06 Winning Percentage 60%
  04 Bush Percentage 55%
  Reasons for Weakness
  How the mighty have fallen. It is quite likely this seat will  open up in 08 and if not Dennis Hastert is damaged goods, a bygone relic  of an era that is gone. Illinois is  also a state trending clearly our way.  This is a great  chance.
Change None
Reason: Looking at Dennis Hastert’s sad face it is hard to believe he will run again and open seats are generally easier to get.
13.  PA 18
  Republican Tim Murphy
  06 Winning Percentage 58%
  04  Bush Percentage  54%
  Reasons for Weakness 
  Scandal appears to be rearing itself into this district in a way that helps us.  This combined with a district remarkably similar to PA 4th where Melissa Hart was  recently beaten. If not for the scandal this district would rank lower but for now it is a prime target
Change Up
Reason: The scandal is now being addressed by the DCCC edging this seat up a spot.

14.  OH 16
  Republican Ralph Regula
  06 Winning Percentage 59%
  04 Bush Percentage  54%
  Reasons for Weakness
  When a nothing challenger holds you under 60% that is a problem. When you are already in your Eighties that is also a problem. When you are about to drop a tremendous amount in power that spells trouble. The Democrats already have a challenger and more will probably emerge.
Change down
Reason The Murphy Scandal  moves Regula down a spot no real change.
  15 .  IL 6
  Republican Peter Roskam
  06 Winning Percentage 51% 
  04 Bush Percentage  53%
  Reasons for Weakness
  This was the DCCC’s greatest folly, by choosing a non-local candidate. It allowed the Republicans to frame the race in a way favorable to them and ultimately win it.  That said the race was extremely close. A freshman Republican minority member has to beatable.  Finding a local candidate will be essential.
Change None
Reason: Roskam has voted like a right winger when his district is far more reasonable. He has to be considered a prime target

16. PA 6
  Republican Jim Gelach
  06 Winning Percentage  51%
  04 Bush Percentage  48%
  Reasons for Weakness
  51%,  three straight elections. It seems as  if  Jim Gerlach  is a survivor which makes him difficult to defeat and yet he clearly has to deal with transition from majority to minority.  A good Democratic Candidate will make this a  race again and quickly.
Change None
Reason Gerlach is vulnerable for the very same reasons he always has been.

  17. NY 25
  Republican Jim Walsh
  06 Winning Percentage  51%
  04 Bush Percentage  48%
  Reasons for Weakness
  After not having a real challenger in a long time Jim Walsh was faced with the scare of his life. Democrat Dan Maffei was also not as well funded as he could have been.  As  one of the eight Republican in Kerry won districts. Jim Walsh can expect a real challenge though unlike other members he will be ready for it.
Change None
Reason  Same basic reasons, he has been voting with Democrats on everything but stem cell research.

18. NM 1
  Republican Heather Wilson
  06 Winning Percentage 50%
  04 Bush Percentage  48%
  Reasons for Weakness
  Another absolute squeaker and another chance to take a Republican held seat. Heather Wilson is as slick as they come, though people do seem to think that Patricia Madrid made a late debate error. Regardless, she is vulnerable but difficult to beat.
Change None
Reason She is just a vulnerable as ever but is still as skilled as ever. She is also voting along with Democrats and making noise on Iraq.

19. WY AL
  Republican Barbara Cubin
  06 Winning Percentage  48%
  04 Bush Percentage  69%
  Reasons for Weakness
  No one likes Barbara Cubin and her extremely weak showing shows, and yet trying to overcome the Republican tilt of Wyoming is extremely difficult, particularly in a Presidential Year. It would not be surprising to see a better Republican challenge her in the primary. 
Change None
Reason Cubin keeps voting like a right winger and her value in the minority still drops. Although the Republican inability to really oppose Democrats so far in the House makes a primary less likely no one wants to run to be powerless.

20.  OH 15
  Republican Deborah Pyrce
  06 Winning Percentage  50%
  04  Bush Percentage  50%
  Reasons for Weakness
  If you basically run  in a tie with your opponent in a Congressional Race, you are vulnerable. However Deb Pryce is a seasoned campaigner and I am readily able to change roles, as her shift out of Republican Leadership shows.  This is a tough one but  completely winnable.
Change None
Reason: The DCCC keeps her on the target list and her district might be more Democratic in a Presidential but 06 was a great year for Ohio Democrats.  She is already leaving leadership aside and voting with Democrats a ton.

21.  CT 4
  Republican Chris Shays
  06 Winning Percentage  51%
  04  Bush Percentage 46%
  Reasons for Weakness
  In many ways Chris Shays is like many of the other close races except that he has more long term incumbency and will be expect a challenge. I am from CT so I know of recruiting difficulties.  It is a winnable race but one that requires a complete commitment to it.  Still  only eight Kerry won districts have Republican Incumbents this is one of them.
Change None
Reason: Shays voted against Medicare change but otherwise is voting with most of the Democratic agenda. The DCCC still seems interested.

22.  IL 10
  Republican Mark Kirk
  06 Winning Percentage  53%
  04  Bush Percentage 47%
  Reasons for Weakness
  The seventh  Kerry won district on the lists. Mark Kirk is much like Chris Shays was  after 2004. A scare yes, but he  still  had some breathing room. Picking him off will be very difficult, though Dan Seals giving it another try would be serious. 

Change None 
Reason: Mark Kirk is clearly leaving his leadership days behind  and voting with Democrats . This makes it easier for him to paint himself as moderate but it is also clearly as the DCCC said

23.  NY 13
  Republican Vito Fosella 
  06 Winning Percentage  57%
  04  Bush Percentage  55%
Reasons for Weakness
This race moved into the rankings from spot 26 because the DCCC targeted it for ethics  violations. New York’s Democratic Lean in the last election makes it seem entirely possible that this race will finally get hot. 

24.  PA 3
  Republican Phil English
  06 Winning Percentage 54%
  04  Bush Percentage 53%
  Reasons for Weakness
  This was another under-target in PA , an area which trended toward the party in a serious way. There have also been rumor’s abounding about Phil English. Finding a good challenger will be difficult but he is clearly vulnerable because of his underperformance.
Change Down
Reasons: Vito’s  weakness is just slightly greater.

25. MI 11
  Republican Thaddeus McCotter
  06 Winning Percentage 54% 
  04 Bush Percentage 53%
  Reasons for Weakness
  This was another Michigan under-target particularly in relationship to funding.  That means the Vulnerable exists and is real. It is going to be a very tough nut to crack, but it fits the profile of many of the Democrat upset victories that happened across the country this year.
Change Down
Reason: Just moved down a spot.

Dropped out of Top 25
Steve Chabot

Entered
Vito Fossella

26.  OH 1
  Republican Steve Chabot
  06 Winning Percentage 53%
  04 Bush Percentage  51%

27.  NJ 5
  Republican Scott Garrett
  06 Winning Percentage  55%
  04  Bush Percentage  57%

28. IL 11
  Republican Jerry Weller
  06 Winning Percentage 55%
  04  Bush Percentage  53%

29.  IA 4
  Republican Tom Latham
  06 Winning Percentage  57%
  04  Bush Percentage  51%

30. NY 3
  Republican Peter King
  06 Winning Percentage  56%
  04  Bush Percentage 53%

31.  OH 2
  Republican Jean Schmidt
  06 Winning Percentage 51% 
  04  Bush Percentage 64%

32.  VA 11
  Republican Tom Davis
  06 Winning Percentage 55% 
  04  Bush Percentage 50%

33.  NY 29
  Republican Randy Kuhl
  06 Winning Percentage  52%
  04  Bush Percentage 56%

34.  FL 1O
  Republican Bill Young
  06 Winning Percentage  66% 
  04  Bush Percentage  50%

35.  CA 26
  Republican David Drier
  06 Winning Percentage 57% 
  04  Bush Percentage  55%

36.  OH 3
  Republican Mike Turner
  06 Winning Percentage 59% 
  04  Bush Percentage  54%

37.  FL 24
  Republican Tom Feeney
  06 Winning Percentage  58%
  04 Bush Percentage  55%

38. DE AL
  Republican Mike Castle
  06 Winning Percentage 57% 
  04  Bush Percentage  46%

39.  NJ 3
  Republican Jim Saxton
  06 Winning Percentage  58%
  04  Bush Percentage  51%

40. MN 6
  Republican Michelle Bachmann
  06 Winning Percentage  50%
  04  Bush Percentage 57%

41. VA 2
Republican Thelma Drake
06 Winning Percentage 52%
04 Bush Winning Percentage  58%

  42.  OH 12
  Republican Pat Tiberi
  06 Winning Percentage 58% 
  04  Bush Percentage  51%

43.
NY 23
  Republican John McHugh
  06 Winning Percentage  63%
  04  Bush Percentage 51%

44.  OH 14
  Republican Steve LaTourette
  06 Winning Percentage  58%
  04  Bush Percentage  53%

45.  NJ 2
  Republican Frank LoBiondo
  06 Winning Percentage  62%
  04  Bush Percentage  50%

46. CO 6
Republican Tom Tancredo
06 Winning  Percentage 59%
04 Bush Percentage 60%

Reason Likely to be open

  47. WI 1
  Republican Paul Ryan
  06 Winning Percentage  63%
  04  Bush Percentage 54%

48.
MN 3
  Republican Jim Ramstad 
  06 Winning Percentage  65%
  04  Bush Percentage  51%

49 .  ID 1
  Republican Bill Salli
  06 Winning Percentage 50%
  04 Bush Percentage 69%

50.  MI 4
  Republican Dave Camp
  06 Winning Percentage  60%
  04  Bush Percentage  55%

Dropped out of Top 50
Ilena Ros-Lethinen
Fred Upton

Enter Top 50
Thelma Drake
Tom Tancredo