Swing State Project

Hello everyone, this is my first post here.  I’m a 24 year old college guy.  I was born and raised in MI-07.  I have a passionate dislike for the man representing my hometown in Congress, the “Reverend” Tim Walberg. That passion led me here via http://walbergwatch…..  I spend a lot of time on DailyKos as well, though I haven’t done much posting.

I want to do whatever I can to ensure “The Reverend” is a one term Congressman. I was apalled but not surprised when he unseated Joe Schwarz who is one of very few R’s I can respect.

I have worked off and on with the Renier (D) campaign here since 2004. I will be the first to admit that she hasn’t been a viable candidate, but she has been what we’ve had to work with here. I hope to meet up with some like minded people , and contribute to supporting a candidate who can take out Timmy.

I’m also here to learn, because it’s apparent that all of you have a grasp on the state of national races far exceeding mine.  I look forward to spending time here and working with all of you.

Roskam is vulnerable in Il-6.  He only won 51%-49%, but what is most important is the district is changing rapidly.  It is becoming more urban, more diverse and more democrat.  Roskam is way to conservative for the district and this will become apparent over the next 2 years.  I’m going to do my part by creating a database of blogs tracking just how Roskam is too conservative at www.dumproskam.blogspot.com. 
I’ve only just started it, but he’s already given me alot to blast him on.
 

As I stated in my previous diary and numerous comments, I believe the Illinois 10th Congressional district is ripe for a flip.  Mark Kirk has served as the representative for the district since 2000, and while he claims to be a moderate, his record is anything but moderate.  In order to understand why this seat should be a prime target in 2008, it is first important to understand the district and its make up.

The Illinois 10th district covers a significant portion of Lake County in the northeast corner of the state and five townships on the north and northwest sides of Cook County (Cook County is the home to Chicago).  The five communities in Cook County are Elk Grove, Northfield, New Trier (Wilmette, Glencoe & Winnetka), Palatine and Wheeling.  Due to their proximity to the City of Chicago, the Cook County communities actually account for more votes than the Lake County townships (election data from Lake County and Cook County Clerk Websites).

Year	Cook	Cook %	Lake	Lake %
2000	112,117	47%	125,389	53%
2002	105,847	57%	81,064	43%
2004	155,369	56%	121,342	44%
2006	114,754	57%	87,453	43%

More after the flip.

As you can see the Cook County townships represent about 57% of the vote, regardless of whether or not it’s a presidential election.  In 2000, the make-up was exactly the opposite.  Redistricting by the Republican controlled legislature added two Cook County Townships, Palatine and Elk Grove to the district.  These two townships represent just under 10% of the total district vote counts in each of the last three elections and voting trends in those townships approaches 2:1 Republican to Democrat.  Maybe when 2010 rolls around, the now Democratic controlled legislature can remove those townships (into either IL-6 or IL-9), but that doesn’t change the opportunity to pick this seat up.

Now that Mark Kirk has won 4 elections, one might assume his long-term incumbency status provides him ample protection but let’s take a closer look at those elections.

Year	Dem Opponent	Dem %	Kirk %
2000	Gash	49%	51%
2002	Perritt	31%	69%
2004	Goodman	36%	64%
2006	Seals	47%	53%

To put his margins of victory into perspective, here is the money data from the FEC ($ Spent):

Year	Dem Opponent	Dem $k	Kirk $k
2000	Gash	$1,967	$2,030
2002	Perritt	$  473	$1,436
2004	Goodman	$  89	$1,654
2006	Seals	$1,851	$3,475

Based on the weakly funded challenges mounted by Hank Perritt and Lee Goodman, we should focus on the 2000 and 2006 races.  In 2000, Lauren Beth Gash was a well recognized, popular state representative with the ability to raise funds in the district.  A quick look at the results shows, she won Lake County, but lost Cook County.

County	Total Votes	Gash %	Kirk %
Cook	112,117	46%	54%
Lake	125,389	51%	49%
Total	237,506	49%	51%

Remember, this race was pre-redistricting, so there was more Democratic balance to Cook County to take advantage of.  In fact, looking at the presidential results from the townships in the district, State Rep. Gash actually underperformed the Gore-Lieberman ticket by 5 percentage points (Gore won those townships 51-48%).

Looking at the 2006 race, Dan Seals saw pretty much the same story, except he barely lost Lake County instead of carrying it like Gash.  Like her, Seals finished way behind in Cook County.

County	Total Votes	Seals %	Kirk %
Cook	114,754	45%	55%
Lake	87,453	49%	51%
Total	202,207	47%	53%

Seals proved to be an excellent fundraiser, especially considering his novice political status and zero name recognition.  Again, a concern is he underperformed the 2004 presidential ticket by 5 percentage points in the Cook County Townships, just like Gash.  But here is the good news (and why we need to target this seat). 

1. Seals had the same Cook County results as Gash, despite the redistricting adding the heavily republican townships of Palatine and Elk Grove. 
2. Kirk had to outspend Seals 2:1 (see above chart on spending) despite Seals lack of name recognition.
3. The DCCC only spent approximately $125,000
4. Kirk minority status will weaken his ability to bring home federal $ to the district.
5. Either Obama (even as a VP candidate) or native daughter Hillary Clinton (she’s from Park Ridge, IL) will energize Illinois Democrats in 2008.
6. Kirk has very little cash on hand left, only $105,000.

I am convinced these are all reasons that are falling in our favor to flip this seat in 2008, and why the DCCC should make this seat a top tier target.  Of course, to make it a race, you need a top tier challenger and I have three candidates that would be great challengers.  Dan Seals would be one.  He can build on his effort from last year, and has proved he can raise money.  He can raise a bunch more if he starts now, and have a sizeable war chest by the time the primary rolls around.  My two other ideal candidates are our two local state senators in the district, Terry Link (ten years in the state senate) and Susan Garrett (4 years).  They both have good name recognition, ties to the communities in both counties and support within the local party.  I am unsure of their fundraising ability, and either one would have to prove their skill in that area to gain top tier target status.

IL-10 has real potential in 2008.  After reading this, I hope you agree.

Louisiana’s fifth district, Huey Long’s district, presently represented by Republican Rodney Alexander,

does not appear as competitive as LA-07, the first district about which I have written in this series on Louisiana’s Congressional seats.  Indeed, Republicans garner 68% of the vote in this seat’s open primaries when confronted with underfunded an inexperienced Democratic challengers.  Here are the results of the 2000, 2004 and 2006 open primaries:

2006
U. S. Representative, 5th Congressional District
All 778 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Parish
78,211  68% Rodney Alexander, R Elected
33,233  29% Gloria Williams Hearn, D Defeated
1,876  2% Brent Sanders, L Defeated
1,262  1% John Watts, O Defeated

2004
U. S. Representative, 5th Congressional District
All 850 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Parish
141,495  59% Rodney Alexander, R Elected
58,591  25% Zelma “Tisa” Blakes, D Defeated
37,971  16% John W. “Jock” Scott, R Defeated

2000
U. S. Representative, 5th Congressional District
All 756 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Parish
42,977  24% Roger Beall, D Defeated
123,975  69% John C. Cooksey, R Elected
5,335  3% Raymond A. “Chuck” Dumas, O Defeated
7,186  4% Sam Houston Melton, Jr., D Defeated

The poor performance of nominal Democrats in LA-05 is not very encouraging.  But in 2002 and in 1996, years in which this seat was open, very competitive challenges were waged by Democrats.  John Cooksey, a Republican who held this seat until he abandoned it in 2002 to run against Mary Landrieu in the open primary for Louisiana’s US Senate seat, won this seat in 1996.  The open primary results of the 1996 race follow the pattern outlined above: Republicans received 67% of the vote, while Democrats garnered 33%.

1996 Open Primary
U. S. Representative, 5th Congressional District
All 796 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Parish
9,286  5% Michael Jordan Caire, D Defeated
60,853  34% John Cooksey, R Runoff
48,226  27% Clyde Holloway, R Defeated
7,106  4% “Ben” Marshall, R Defeated
5,268  3% Tim Robinson, R Defeated
50,144  28% Francis Thompson, D Runoff

Although Republicans won 67% of the vote, Democrat Francis Thompson, a Representative in the Louisiana House of Representatives, managed to edge one of the Republican challengers and qualify for the runoff, where he cut into the Republican voting base and earned 42% of the vote.  Here are the results of the 1996 runoff:

1996 runoff
U. S. Representative, 5th Congressional District
All 796 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Parish
135,990  58% John Cooksey, R Elected
97,363  42% Francis Thompson, D Defeated

When voters are forced to choose between one Democrat and one Republican, the margin of difference between the parties’ respective vote totals decreases dramatically.

This was also the case in 2002, when the seat became open as a result of Cooksey’s abortive run for the US Senate.  Here are the results of the 2002 open primary, which also follows the partisan voting pattern I discuss above:

2002
U. S. Representative, 5th Congressional District
All 746 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Parish
52,952  29% Rodney Alexander, D Runoff
34,533  19% Robert J. Barham, R Defeated
45,278  25% Lee Fletcher, R Runoff
42,573  23% Clyde C. Holloway, R Defeated
4,595  2% Sam Houston Melton, Jr., D Defeated
1,145  1% Vinson Mouser, O Defeated
3,581  2% Jack Wright, R Defeated

Because three Republicans split their voting base, a Democrat named Rodney Alexander was able to qualify for the runoff despite winning only 29% of the vote.  Alexander won that runoff as a Democrat by 974 votes, staging a major upset in 2002, when Democrats performed poorly in federal races, especially in the South.  Here are the results of the 2002 runoff:

2002 runoff
U. S. Representative, 5th Congressional District
All 746 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Parish
86,718  50% Rodney Alexander, D Elected
85,744  50% Lee Fletcher, R Defeated

The upset Alexander staged in 2002 is very similar to that waged by Democrat Charlie Melancon for the open Congressional seat in LA-03 in 2004, when Melancon won his seat by 569 votes.  Here are the results of LA-03’s 2004 open primary and runoff, which once again demonstrates how Democrats can compete in Louisiana if one Republican and one Democrat face off after a primary:

LA-03 2004 open primary

U. S. Representative, 3rd Congressional District
All 573 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Parish
25,783  10% Damon J. Baldone, D Defeated
19,347  7% Charmaine Degruise Caccioppi, D Defeated
10,350  4% Kevin D. Chiasson, R Defeated
63,328  24% “Charlie” Melancon, D Runoff
61,132  23% Craig Romero, R Defeated
84,680  32% W.J. “Billy” Tauzin, III, R Runoff

LA-03 2004 runoff
U. S. Representative, 3rd Congressional District
All 573 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Parish
57,611  50% “Charlie” Melancon, D Elected
57,042  50% W.J. “Billy” Tauzin, III, R Defeated

But more reasons exist for Alexander’s victory in 2002 than just the ability of Democrats to perform well when facing Republican opponents in highly publicized runoffs.  Alexander may have one his seat as a Democrat in 2002 as a result of perceived shifts in the Republican party.  For John Cooksey was not your standard southern Republican: although Cooksey personally opposed abortion rights, he did not believe the US Constitution should be amended with an abortion ban.  For to him, “federal bureaucrats” should have no role in shaping policy that affects the quotidian lives of Americans.  This psuedo-libertarian stance on cultural issues starkly contrasted with the campaign rhetoric of the Republican party in 2002, possibly swaying voters away from Fletcher to Alexander in the 2002 runoff.

Another factor in Alexander’s 2002 Democratic victory was the US Senate race, the only other federal race on the ballot in the 2002 runoff.  Many believe the Republican’s aggressive campaign against Landrieu backfired, propelling her to a surprise victory in a year when Democratic Senators lost their seats in the South.  Although Landrieu did not perform as well as Alexander in LA-05, she did receive 48.5% of the vote.  Here are the results of the 2002 Senate race runoff and the Congressional runoff in LA-05 by parish:

2002 US Senate Race and LA-05 House runoff results in LA-05

Allen Parish (half of which is in LA-05)
U. S. Senator
All 34 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Precinct
3,111  59% Mary Landrieu, D Elected
2,201  41% Suzanne Haik Terrell, R Defeated

U. S. Representative, 5th Congressional District
All 19 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Precinct
1,630  63% Rodney Alexander, D Elected
950  37% Lee Fletcher, R Defeated

Evangeline Parish (half of which is in LA-05)
U. S. Senator
All 61 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Precinct
4,740  51% Mary Landrieu, D Elected
4,563  49% Suzanne Haik Terrell, R Defeated

U. S. Representative, 5th Congressional District
All 26 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Precinct
1,396  44% Rodney Alexander, D Elected
1,811  56% Lee Fletcher, R Defeated

Iberville Parish (half of which is in LA-05)
U. S. Senator
All 44 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Precinct
7,390  68% Mary Landrieu, D Elected
3,431  32% Suzanne Haik Terrell, R Defeated

U. S. Representative, 5th Congressional District
All 20 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Precinct
2,970  69% Rodney Alexander, D Elected
1,363  31% Lee Fletcher, R Defeated

Pointe Coupee Parish (most of which is in LA-05)
U. S. Senator
All 24 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Precinct
4,977  62% Mary Landrieu, D Elected
2,998  38% Suzanne Haik Terrell, R Defeated

U. S. Representative, 5th Congressional District
All 15 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Precinct
3,044  76% Rodney Alexander, D Elected
967  24% Lee Fletcher, R Defeated

Avoyelles Parish
U. S. Senator
All 51 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Precinct
6,464  57% Mary Landrieu, D Elected
4,897  43% Suzanne Haik Terrell, R Defeated

U. S. Representative, 5th Congressional District
All 51 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Precinct
6,429  59% Rodney Alexander, D Elected
4,531  41% Lee Fletcher, R Defeated

Rapides Parish
U. S. Senator
All 106 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Precinct
15,346  46% Mary Landrieu, D Elected
17,983  54% Suzanne Haik Terrell, R Defeated

U. S. Representative, 5th Congressional District
All 106 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Precinct
17,045  52% Rodney Alexander, D Elected
16,011  48% Lee Fletcher, R Defeated

LaSalle Parish
U. S. Senator
All 29 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Precinct
1,253  33% Mary Landrieu, D Elected
2,530  67% Suzanne Haik Terrell, R Defeated

U. S. Representative, 5th Congressional District
All 29 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Precinct
1,498  40% Rodney Alexander, D Elected
2,257  60% Lee Fletcher, R Defeated

Catahoula Parish
U. S. Senator
All 34 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Precinct
1,600  53% Mary Landrieu, D Elected
1,410  47% Suzanne Haik Terrell, R Defeated

U. S. Representative, 5th Congressional District
All 34 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Precinct
1,687  56% Rodney Alexander, D Elected
1,305  44% Lee Fletcher, R Defeated

Concordia Parish
U. S. Senator
All 23 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Precinct
2,853  53% Mary Landrieu, D Elected
2,491  47% Suzanne Haik Terrell, R Defeated

U. S. Representative, 5th Congressional District
All 23 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Precinct
2,701  51% Rodney Alexander, D Elected
2,560  49% Lee Fletcher, R Defeated

Winn Parish
U. S. Senator
All 29 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Precinct
2,038  48% Mary Landrieu, D Elected
2,247  52% Suzanne Haik Terrell, R Defeated

U. S. Representative, 5th Congressional District
All 29 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Precinct
2,477  58% Rodney Alexander, D Elected
1,784  42% Lee Fletcher, R Defeated

Caldwell Parish
U. S. Senator
All 20 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Precinct
1,237  43% Mary Landrieu, D Elected
1,635  57% Suzanne Haik Terrell, R Defeated

U. S. Representative, 5th Congressional District
All 20 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Precinct
1,354  47% Rodney Alexander, D Elected
1,511  53% Lee Fletcher, R Defeated

Franklin Parish
U. S. Senator
All 33 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Precinct
2,604  45% Mary Landrieu, D Elected
3,150  55% Suzanne Haik Terrell, R Defeated

U. S. Representative, 5th Congressional District
All 33 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Precinct
2,735  48% Rodney Alexander, D Elected
2,970  52% Lee Fletcher, R Defeated

Tensas Parish
U. S. Senator
All 27 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Precinct
1,270  60% Mary Landrieu, D Elected
847  40% Suzanne Haik Terrell, R Defeated

U. S. Representative, 5th Congressional District
All 27 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Precinct
1,246  60% Rodney Alexander, D Elected
844  40% Lee Fletcher, R Defeated

Madison Parish
U. S. Senator
All 25 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Precinct
1,759  57% Mary Landrieu, D Elected
1,333  43% Suzanne Haik Terrell, R Defeated

U. S. Representative, 5th Congressional District
All 25 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Precinct
1,738  57% Rodney Alexander, D Elected
1,295  43% Lee Fletcher, R Defeated

Richland Parish
U. S. Senator
All 23 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Precinct
2,680  44% Mary Landrieu, D Elected
3,368  56% Suzanne Haik Terrell, R Defeated

U. S. Representative, 5th Congressional District
All 23 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Precinct
2,847  47% Rodney Alexander, D Elected
3,163  53% Lee Fletcher, R Defeated

Ouachita Parish
U. S. Senator
All 79 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Precinct
17,330  41% Mary Landrieu, D Elected
24,450  59% Suzanne Haik Terrell, R Defeated

U. S. Representative, 5th Congressional District
All 79 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Precinct
17,422  42% Rodney Alexander, D Elected
23,982  58% Lee Fletcher, R Defeated

Jackson Parish
U. S. Senator
All 27 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Precinct
2,691  49% Mary Landrieu, D Elected
2,786  51% Suzanne Haik Terrell, R Defeated

U. S. Representative, 5th Congressional District
All 27 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Precinct
3,562  65% Rodney Alexander, D Elected
1,940  35% Lee Fletcher, R Defeated

Lincoln Parish
U. S. Senator
All 45 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Precinct
5,305  46% Mary Landrieu, D Elected
6,327  54% Suzanne Haik Terrell, R Defeated

U. S. Representative, 5th Congressional District
All 45 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Precinct
5,681  50% Rodney Alexander, D Elected
5,766  50% Lee Fletcher, R Defeated

Union Parish
U. S. Senator
All 46 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Precinct
2,714  39% Mary Landrieu, D Elected
4,181  61% Suzanne Haik Terrell, R Defeated

U. S. Representative, 5th Congressional District
All 46 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Precinct
2,778  41% Rodney Alexander, D Elected
4,023  59% Lee Fletcher, R Defeated

Morehouse Parish
U. S. Senator
All 32 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Precinct
4,009  50% Mary Landrieu, D Elected
3,974  50% Suzanne Haik Terrell, R Defeated

U. S. Representative, 5th Congressional District
All 32 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Precinct
3,956  50% Rodney Alexander, D Elected
3,946  50% Lee Fletcher, R Defeated

West Carroll Parish
U. S. Senator
All 18 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Precinct
1,135  36% Mary Landrieu, D Elected
2,028  64% Suzanne Haik Terrell, R Defeated

U. S. Representative, 5th Congressional District
All 18 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Precinct
1,171  37% Rodney Alexander, D Elected
1,983  63% Lee Fletcher, R Defeated

East Carroll Parish
U. S. Senator
All 19 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Precinct
1,360  63% Mary Landrieu, D Elected
801  37% Suzanne Haik Terrell, R Defeated

U. S. Representative, 5th Congressional District
All 19 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Precinct
1,351  63% Rodney Alexander, D Elected
782  37% Lee Fletcher, R Defeated

The results of the US Senate and US House races in the 2002 runoff almost mirror one another, which has lead some to believe Landrieu and Alexander mutually assisted one another.  The only parish Landrieu won that Alexander did not was Evangeline Parish, and only Winn and Jackson Parishes were won by Alexander and not by Landrieu. 

Because Landrieu is a New Orleans Democrat, she did not perform as well as Alexander, who has resided in Northern Louisiana for at least three decades.  But notice the Democratic victory in 2002 was during a year when Landrieu was up for reelection.  This was also the case in 1996, when Democrat Francis Thompson made it into a runoff with John Cooksey, sharing the runoff ticket with Landrieu as she faced off with Republican Woody Jenkins.  LA-05, in other words, can be competitive for Democrats in a year when there is a US Senate race with a Democratic incumbent.  It can also be competitive during a Presidential election year. 

2008 is also promising, as races for federal offices will no longer have open primaries.  Each party will hold its own primary, and the winners of each party’s primary will face off in a general election.  Because 54% of Louisiana’s voters are registered Democrats, many voters who voted for a Republican in open primaries in the past will receive ballots for the Democratic party.  This will most probably result in the election of a consensus candidate who can compete throughout the entire district.  And because only two or three candidates representing different parties will share the ballot on election day, the results should be similar to the runoff results of 1996 and 2002, giving Democrats a viable chance to win Alexander’s seat.

Some believe it will be difficult to unseat Alexander now that he is a Republican.  Alexander switched parties and refiled his election petition just hours before the filing deadline for the open primary in 2004.  Although he claimed he switched parties as a result of the Democratic Party’s nomination of John Kerry for the Presidency, many understand his switch to be the result of White House entreaties.  Alexander was also promised a seat on the Appropriations Committee by the House Republican leadership.  This switch, however, has not helped him consolidate a broader voting base than that enjoyed by his predecessor Cooksey.  Similar to Cooksey in 2000, Alexander garnered 68 in the open primary in 2006.  He is now viewed as a Republican, and the Democrats who previously supported him in 2002 have abandoned him, making him vulnerable to a Democratic challenge.

Also complicating Alexander’s reelection bid in 2008 are the scandals in which his office became embroiled in October 2006.  His assistant was one of the pages pursued by Mark Foley online, and Alexander’s office did not report Foley’s abuse to House leadership, for Alexander claims the page’s parents did not want him to pursue the matter.  Alexander’s inability to manage the affairs of his office also surfaced when his former scheduler, Elizabeth Scott, sued his office for neglecting to take action against Royal Alexander, Rodney Alexander’s Chief of Staff, who engaged in lewd acts of sexual misconduct while sexually harrassing Scott.  Although Gloria Hearn, who lacked a website until a few weeks before the open primary, discussed these problems with voters, Alexander’s ethical lapses were not central to her campaign. 

Alexander’s gross negligence, Landrieu’s reelection for US Senate, changes in Louisiana’s primary system, the high number of African-Americans in the district (34%) and the high percentage of registered Democrats make Alexander a potentially vulnerable Republican incumbent.  Thankfully, the Democratic bench in LA-05 is very deep, as there are many eligible state legislators and mayors from which we can choose.

LOUISIANA STATE HOUSE – Eligible Candidates

Richard “Rick” GALLOT, Jr. – District 11
Bienville, Clairborne and Lincoln Parishes
Attorney
elected 2000, final term begins 2007
2003 – unopposed

James R. “Jim” FANNIN – District 13
Bienville, Jackson, Ouchita and Winn Parishes
Independent Businessman
elected 2003, final term begins 2011
2003 – defeated another Dem 56/44 in open primary

Charles W. DeWITT – District 25
Rapides and Vernon Parishes
Farmer and Businessman
elected 1979, term limited (ending 2007)
2003 – unopposed

Israel B. CURTIS – District 26
Rapides Parish
Legislator
elected 1991, term limited (ending 2007)
2003 – deated another Dem 53/47 in runoff

Rick L. FARRAR – District 27
Rapides Parish
Attorney
elected 1991 and 1999, final term begins 2007
2003 – deated Other Party candidate 61/39 in open primary

Charles “Charlie Mac” McDONALD – District 14
East Carroll, Morehouse, Ouchita and West Carroll Parishes
Retired University Administrator
elected 1991, term limited (ending 2007)
2003 – unopposed

Willie HUNTER, Jr. – District 17
Ouachita Parish
Attorney
elected 1991, term limited (ending 2007)
2003 – unopposed

Francis C. THOMPSON – District 19
East Carroll, Madison, Morehouse, Ouachita, Richland and West Carroll Parishes
Retired Educator
elected 1974, term limited (ending 2007)
2003 – unopposed
1996 US House Candidate – defeated 58/42 by Republican in runoff

Lelon KENNEY – District 20
Caldwell, Catahoula, Franklin and Tensas Parishes
Farmer
elected 1995, term limited (ending 2007)
2003 – defeated another Dem 63/37 in runoff

Monica H. WALKER – District 28
Avoyelles Parish
Business Owner
elected 2003, final term begins 2011
2003 – unopposed

Karen Gaudet ST. GERMAIN – District 60
Ascension, Assumption, Iberville and West Baton Rouge Parishes
Legislator
elected 2003, final term begins 2011
2003 – defeated another Dem 52/48 in runoff

Many state representatives will retire in 2007, and I imagine many of them can be convinced to run for Alexander’s seat.

LOUISIANA SENATE – Eligible Candidates

Charles D. “CD” JONES – District 34
Ouachita, Richland, East Carroll, Madison, Tensas and Concordia Parishes
Elected to Senate in 1992, eligible to serve through 2008
Former State Representative, 1980-1992; Retired Army Captain, 1976-1979
2003 – unopposed

Noble E. ELLINGTON – District 32
Ouachita, Caldwell, Richland, Franklin, Catahoula, LaSalle, Rapides, Avoyelles and Concordia Parishes
Elected to Senate in 1998, eligible to serve through 2008
Former State Representative, 1988-1995
2003 – defeated another Dem 80/20 in open primary

Joe McPHERSON – District 29
Rapides Parish
Elected to Senate in 2000, eligible to serve through 2012
Former State Senator, 1984-1996; United States Army Reserves
2003 – defeated another Dem 79/21 in open primary

Kenneth M. “Mike” SMITH – District 31
Sabine, Natchitoches, Winn, Grant and Rapides Parishes
Elected to Senate in 1996, eligible to serve through 2008
2003 – unopposed

Donald E. HINES, MD – District 28
Allen, Evangeline, Avoyelles and St. Landry Parishes
Elected to Senate in 1993, eligible to serve through 2008
Current Senate President
2003 – unopposed

Robert “Rob” MARIONNEAUX, Jr. – District 17
Pointe Coupee, West Baton Rouge, Iberville, East Baton Rouge, East Feliciana and St. Helena Parishes
Elected to Senate in 2000, eligible to serve through 2012
2003 – defeated two Republicans 62/29/9 in open primary

Many state senators’ terms end in 2008.  Perhaps they too can be convinced to challenge Alexander.

MAYORS OF CITIES – Eligible Candidates

James E. “Jamie” MAYO – Mayor of Monroe
Ouachita Parish, population 52,163
elected October 2001, unopposed 2005

Clarence FIELDS – Mayor of Pineville
Rapides Parish, population 13,858
elected 2002, unopposed 2006

Clarence HAWKINS – Mayor of Bastrop
Morehouse Parish, population 12,763
elected 1989, reelected 2005 83/17 against another Dem in open primary
no website

Mark A. “Tony” GULOTTA – Mayor of Plaquemine
Iberville Parish, population 6,894
elected 1992, unopposed 2004
website under construction

Deano THORNTON – Mayor of Winnfield
Winn Parish, population 5,484
elected April 1994, reelected April 2006 51/49 over another Dem in open primary

Richard MICHAEL – Mayor of Marksville
Avoyelles Parish, population 5,695
elected 1978, reelected April 2006 unopposed
no website

Jack HAMMONS – Mayor of Winnsboro
Franklin Parish, population 5,149
elected 1998, reelected April 2006 53/45 over another Dem in open primary
no website

Isaac FIELDS, Jr. – Mayor of Lake Providence
East Carroll Parish, population 4,751
elected 2002, reelected October 2006 unopposed
no website

Officials who were just elected to his or her office are not considered eligible, as are those who will not complete the first term of their office by 2007.  A populist Democrat with experience and knowlege of agriculture who has a pseudo-libertarian view of government, especially with respect to cultural and social issues, would be an ideal candidate.  Winnfield, the county seat of Winn Parish, is Huey Long’s hometown, and I imagine a message of agricultural development and economic development in this very poor district will resonate with its voters.

Resources with which to contact activists in this district include Democratic Meetups for Monroe, Louisiana, which includes contact information for the DNC’s congressional district field coordinator, Jeanie Williams-West.  One can also contact members of the Louisiana Democratic Party through their website.

I cannot emphasize the importance of fielding strong challengers to every Congressional seat held by a Republican in Louisiana.  Not only will this help us expand our majority; it will also secure high turnout for Sen. Landrieu and for our Presidential candidate in a year when Democrats and Republicans will hold for the first time separate primaries, thus guarenteeing a race between one Democrat and one Republican on the general election.  As I explain above, this increases our chances of winning Congressional seats in this state, especially if we hold competitive Democratic primaries for each Congressional seat presently held by a Republican.
 

This being the Swing State project, one of the hottest topics of discussion on the front page and in the user diaries has been determining exactly which Republican-held districts are prime for targeting (see here, here, here, here and here for some examples).

Why don’t we take it a step a further with a little groupwork, SSP-style.  If you’re so inclined, here’s what I’d like you to do: pretend that you’re the new DCCC Chair, Chris Van Hollen, and you’re drafting up a preliminary battle plan for 2008 in between intensive intervals of Frogger (or whatever retro arcade games they play in their spare time at the D-trip’s HQ).  Obviously, you will be forced to commit a significant amount of resources into incumbent protection–but skip that part for now, other than keeping in mind that your resources are finite, and you won’t be able to target as many races to the same extent as you did in 2006.  You will then turn your attention to the ripest Republican targets of 2008.  You will need to draft a list of the following:

-Up to 15 top-tier, “must contest” districts.  These are districts with vulnerable Republican incumbents where you will actively seek out a top-shelf candidate, fundraise aggressively for (i.e. Red To Blue designation), and target with significant independent expenditures in the general election campaign.

-Up to 20 second-tier, “maybe” districts.  These are districts that could potentially become competitive.  You will want to keep a close eye on these districts and try to encourage strong local candidates to throw their hat in the ring, but you will hold off aggressive fundraising or expenditure plans until the dynamics become more clear, at which point it’s entirely possible that some of these districts could be substitutes or additions to your list of first-tier races.

-A list of “no” districts (as many as you’d like, but at least 5)–districts that might have been competitive in the past or have been targeted in the past that you feel are probably beyond the Democrats’ reach in 2008, or simply not worth the tremendous investment.  These are districts where you will take no active involvement whatsoever, and let the local grassroots make whatever they will of the race.

This should be fun!

The Craig Johnson for State Senate campaign has gotten a slew of new endorsements in the last few days.  Adding to the efforts of groups like CWA are the Nassau County Police Benevolent Association, which has over 2,000 members and is the largest law enforcement union on Long Island, and SEIU Local 32BJ, which has 60,000 members in New York and is the largest private sector union in New York and the largest property service workers union in the United States.

Here’s why 32BJ endorsed Craig:

“By helping to pass a minimum wage bill in Nassau County, Craig Johnson has shown himself to be a strong supporter of Long Island’s working families” said Mike Fishman, Local 32BJ President. “We look forward to working with him in Albany to raise standards for all New York’s working families.”

Last year, the Nassau County Legislature passed a living wage law that will raise minimum wages for workers contracted by the county to $9.50 an hour beginning in 2007. The minimum hourly pay rate will increase to $10.50 an hour in 2008, and again in 2010 to $12.50 an hour.

A new TV ad and a way to help after the break.

NY Ed-PAC coupled their endorsement with a new commercial and a $250,000 ad buy.

Have I convinced you to come out on Saturday and knock on doors yet?  You can join other volunteers on Saturday at either the New Hyde Park LIRR Station at 10:45 AM or, if you’re coming from New York City, at Penn Station under the LIRR Schedule Board at 9:45 AM.

13 days until Election Day!

Volunteer | Donate

(I accidently mis-filed this one. – promoted by James L.)

Today brings our next and final installment in our round-up of 2006 House race expenditures (see here, here, and here for the other entries). Sorry for the lag between entries–I had a busier week than I expected (to make up for it, today’s diary will feature glorious color).

Today, we’ll look at two areas: competitive open seats and the handful of races where Democratic incumbents were on the defensive.

As usual, the “Spent” column indicates candidate expenditures, and “Other IEs” includes all independent expenditures made by PACs who filed with the FEC, but not 527 activity. The column on the far right, labeled “MoV”, indicates the current members’ margin of victory. In most cases I used Secretary of State numbers, but in a few races I relied upon CNN. All numbers were subject to rounding.

First, the open seats:

District	Candidate	Spent	NRCC IEs	Other IEs	Candidate	Spent	DCCC IEs	Other IEs	MoV
AZ-08	Graf	$1.32M	$108k	$178k	Giffords	$2.4M	$653k	$116k	D+12
CO-05	Lamborn	$884k	$149k	$33k	Fawcett	$631k	(none)	(none)	R+19
CO-07	O’Donnell	$2.75M	$556k	$104k	Perlmutter	$2.84M	$2.01M	$39k	D+13
FL-13	Buchanan	$8.06M	$94k	$12k	Jennings	$2.72M	(none)	$240k	R+0
FL-16	Negron	$760k	$1.67M	$11k	Mahoney	$2.46M	$429k	$6k	D+2
ID-01	Sali	$1.04M	$610k	$534k	Grant	$704k	(none)	$40k	R+5
IL-06	Roskam	$3.26M	$3.36M	$11k	Duckworth	$4.46M	$3.17M	$580k	R+3
IL-17	Zinga	$406k	(none)	$25k	Hare	$789k	(none)	$161k	D+14
IA-01	Whalen	$2.27M	$2.44M	$124k	Braley	$2.23M	$1.90M	$50k	D+12
MN-06	Bachmann	$2.46M	$2.48M	$65k	Wetterling	$4.23M	$1.15M	$646k	R+8
NE-03	Smith	$1.22M	$97k	$111k	Kleeb	$966k	$138k	$80k	R+10
NV-02	Heller	$1.6M	$482k	(none)	Derby	$1.55M	$416k	$142k	R+6
NY-24	Meier	$1.55M	$2.25M	$12k	Arcuri	$2.14M	$1.92M	$54k	D+9
OH-06	Blasdel	$1.07M	$664k	(none)	Wilson	$1.67M	$608k	(none)	D+24
OH-18	Padgett	$845k	$3.4M	$36k	Space	$1.55M	$2.48M	$4k	D+24
TX-22	Snelly Gibbr	$910k	$1.68M	$11k	Lampson	$3.49M	$127k	$2k	D+10
VT-AL	Rainville	$1.12M	$720k	(none)	Welch	$1.7M	$424k	(none)	D+8
WI-08	Gard	$2.85M	$1.12M	$142k	Kagen	$3.14M	$1.22M	$336k	D+2
Total		$34.4M	$15.3M	$1.5M		$39.7M	$16.6M	$2.5M

One thing to note here is that when tallying IE expenditures, I did not include expenditures by PACs against candidates who did not make it through the primary (e.g. the money that the Club For Growth spent against Dean Heller and for Sharon Angle in the NV-02 GOP primary). It’s noteworthy to highlight that GOP-allied PACs were more likely to show up in these open seat races than they were in races where Republican incumbents were on the defensive, but Democratic allies still outspent them by a 5-3 ratio. Of these expenditures, the most heartwarming perhaps is the $3.4 million that the NRCC spent against Zack (“Lost In”) Space, only to see the former Dover Law Director clean up by a whopping 24 points. More curiously, though, was the decision by both committees to largely stay out of the ultra-competitive FL-13 race. I could understand the NRCC holding back, when their candidate had bottomless pockets, but I’m not sure what the DCCC’s strategy was here.

Finally, we have the shortlist of “competitive” Democratic races. A few of these were legitimately competitive, while some represent nothing more than wishful thinking from national Republicans earlier on in the election cycle. Do you remember how badly the NRCC and the White House wanted to spook John Spratt (SC-05) in 2005? With Spratt’s 14-point victory and Republicans retreating from the battlefield early, you have to wonder if anyone significant will have the fortitude to try again in 2008.

District	Candidate	Spent	NRCC IEs	Other IEs	Incumbent	Spent	DCCC IEs	Other IEs	MoV
CO-03	Tipton	$822k	(none)	$5k	Salazar	$2M	$29k	(none)	D+25
GA-08	Collins	$1.97M	$672k	(none)	Marshall	$1.84M	$210k	(none)	D+2
GA-12	Burns	$2.06M	$308k	$20k	Barrow	$2.2M	$813k	$13k	D+0
IA-03	Lamberti	$1.99M	$1.02M	$11k	Boswell	$2M	$885k	$33k	D+5
IL-08	McSweeney	$5.01M	$2.37M	$82k	Bean	$4.18M	$1.28M	$482k	D+7
IN-07	Dickerson	$62k	(none)	$4k	Carson	$591k	$69k	(none)	D+8
LA-03	Romero	$1.92M	$24k	(none)	Melancon	$2.46M	$53k	(none)	D+15
OR-05	Erickson	$1.80M	$8k	(none)	Hooley	$1.81M	$428k	$6k	D+11
SC-05	Norman	$1.34M	$24k	$12k	Spratt	$2.56M	(none)	(none)	D+14
TX-17	Taylor	$2.34M	$30k	$28k	Edwards	$3.06M	$204k	$20k	D+18
Total		$19.3M	$4.4M	$0.16M		$22.7M	$3.9M	$0.55M

From BBC News:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/6296299.stm

Kerry ‘will not seek White House’

Senator John Kerry, who lost to George W Bush in 2004, will not run for US president in 2008, reports say.

The Massachusetts Democrat had been thought to be considering another run, and had kept campaign staff and a fundraising operation in place.

But he would have faced an uphill battle for his party’s nomination, given the likely candidacies of Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama.

Mr Kerry is expected to make a formal announcement in the coming hours.

He made his decision only in the past day, reports say.

Oh… My… Goodness!

If you thought it was hard for Jerry McNerney to unseat Pombo in 2006, just wait until 2008…
Or not, especially since the Republicans are already laying the groundwork to retake the 11th District.

So what can we do to help McNerney hold onto CA-11? What can we do to keep this area blue?

More after the flip…

I still remember what happened in the 11th last year. I remember way back when, when I wondered if it was more likely that Pete McCloskey would beat Pombo in the Republican Primary than any Democrat knocking off Pombo. Oh yes, and I still remember the Democratic Primary and the “mysterious forces” behind Steve Filson. I remember how the DCCC originally gave McNerney the cold shrug after he won the primary, and I must admit that I’m still somewhat miffed about it. However, I remember how the Republicans freaked out at the last minute, as they finally began to realize that Pombo was in deep trouble.

And despite all that happened, McNerney won by a fairly comfortable margin last November. I was excited to hear McNerney give the Democratic national radio address last month, and I was just elated to see McNerney sworn in with the rest of the Democratic majority just eighteen days ago. Everything seemed so great…

Until I saw THIS! From the Contra Costa Times:

“Why would you reward someone who broke the law? It doesn’t make sense,” says the flier, which McNerney supporters uploaded this week to the Calitics and Say No To Pombo blogs. “But that’s what Jerry McNerney wants to do. He wants to reward illegal aliens with Social Security benefits, even though they entered our country illegally.”

According to the flier, which cites an August 2006 newspaper story on the U.S. Senate’s bipartisan immigration-reform plan, the plan McNerney supports would jeopardize Social Security’s future. “If Jerry McNerney wants to let illegal aliens get Social Security, what other ideas does he have to encourage illegal aliens to break our laws?” it asks.

Already, the NRCC is back in full gear… But do they also have a candidate in mind?
From the SF Chronicle:

“There’s no way the Republicans are going to concede that seat,” said Assemblyman Guy Houston, R-San Ramon, whose district has some overlap with McNerney’s 11th Congressional District, which cuts across parts of Alameda, Contra Costa, Santa Clara and San Joaquin counties.

Houston, who is contemplating a challenge against McNerney in 2008, will be in Washington next month to talk to GOP leaders. Pombo, 46, a Tracy cattle rancher who was chairman of the House Resources Committee when he was defeated in November, has not ruled out running again.

From what I am hearing now, Houston may be a formidable opponent. He already represents many of the CA-11 voters in the State Assembly. The Republicans are already starting to cheer him on. I’ve heard that Houston sells himself as a reasonable “moderate”, though I think his voting record says something else. Oh yes, and voters in this swing district will be voting for President in 2008!

So what does this all mean for Jerry McNerney? Well, I’m hoping that all this motivates him and the Bay Area activists to work hard to get him reelected…
And hopefully, just as hard as they worked to get him elected last year! This is a purple seat that is fast trending blue, so it’s not as if Republicans have that much of an advantage in this region. This time last year, people told us that Pombo could not be taken down. Now, these same folks are telling us that McNerney cannot survive next year. All we need to do is keep up the grassroots activism, and encourage McNerney to keep in touch with his district, and I think we shouldn’t have a problem keeping CA-11 blue!

(Cross-posted at Calitics, and at and at my blog)

A memo to all you fat cats: you can now give $2300 to each candidate per election.  Feel free to dig a little deeper into your brie and champagne fund for a better America.