Sen. Wayne Allard said today he will honor his term-limits pledge and leave at the end of 2008, creating a replacement fight that should turn Colorado into one of the country’s biggest electoral battlegrounds. …
There’s a long list of potential candidates for Allard’s seat, including Rep. Mark Udall, D-Eldorado Springs, and various Republicans, such as outgoing Gov. Bill Owens, Tancredo, McInnis and Schaffer.
Representative Mark Kirk of the 10th District of Illinois is at the top of my list to see unseated in the next election. Kirk has always tried to play the “moderate” card during his time in congress, but he has always done that when convenient (ie. voting the moderate stance when his vote did not impact the outcome of the vote). His status as a minority whip in the 109th Congress was much more telling of his politics than his voting record and his unimpressive legislative record.
More on the flip…
Now that he has been saddled with minority status in the House, it will be interesting to see how he tries to hide is conservative bent with his moderate label. My efforts over the next two years will be dedicated to exposing his real voting record and build a case for change in 2008…and so it begins with his vote on the bill requiring the government to negotiate better prices with pharmaceutical companies on behalf of the users of Medicare.
Mark Kirk’s week started out with unsurprising moderate votes of "yea" on bills to enact the 9/11 Commission recommendations (HR 1), increase the minimum wage (HR 2), and remove restrictions on federal funding of stem cell research (HR 3). Then came his vote on the Medicare Bill (HR 4), or should I say non-vote. Mark Kirk failed to vote on this legislation, even though he had the cover of the inevitable passage of the bill. Even Kirk’s website has a dedicated paragraph to the Medicare Prescription Drug Benefit that he supported in the 108th Congress (this is important to note, since the congressman rarely highlights national issues on his website). So why would he not vote on this legislation?
Well, IL-10 is home to the headquarters of Abbott Labs and Baxter Healthcare. A quick perusal of Kirk’s FEC filings for his fundraising for the last election cycle reveals contributions from Abbott’s PAC of $10,000, Baxter – $9,000, Caremark (another IL 10 company) $8,000, AMGEN $5,000, and SmithKlineGlaxo $1,000. Individual contributions include $4,200 from Abbott CEO Miles White and $2,000 from Baxter CEO Robert Parkinson. Now his non-vote becomes a little more clear. Mark Kirk wants to keep his moderate credentials, but can’t vote for HR4 because it will upset his Big Pharma connections. So even though his vote would not change the outcome of the bill, he is trying to play both sides of the fence by not voting – staying off record. Fortunately, his FEC filings tell the real story.
As an aside, let’s take the two minutes to visit the hypocrisy of the GOP stance on this bill. The GOP, long time defender of free markets and deregulation, believes that it is necessary to interfere with the free market and regulate the government by prohibiting it from using its market power to negotiate better terms for the drugs medicare pays for. If the government was a corporation, its shareholders (taxpayers) would demand an efficient use of its assets (tax dollars). This prohibition is about as un-republican as you can get, but nobody seems to call them on it. Ahh, the hypocrisy.
LA-07, presently represented by Republican sophomore Charles Boustany,
is historically Democratic. Chris John, a Democrat, previously held this from 1997 until he resigned in 2004 to run for an open US Senate seat. Before John a conservative Democrat named Jimmy Hayes, who left the Democratic party in 1995 and ran an abortive campaign for US Senate in 1996, held this seat for five terms.
A split Democratic party after a contentious open primary allowed Boustany to win this seat in 2004. Here are the results of the open primary:
U. S. Representative, 7th Congressional District
All 558 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Parish
105,761 39% Charles Boustany, Jr., R Runoff
5,177 2% Malcolm R. Carriere, D Defeated
67,389 25% “Don” Cravins, D Defeated
69,079 25% Willie Landry Mount, D Runoff
26,526 10% David Thibodaux, R Defeated
Republicans captured only 49% of the vote in the open primary, even though President Bush performed quite well in the district, garnering 60 percent of the vote on the same day. Democrats, on the other hand, captured 51% of the vote. But Cravins’s unwillingness to fully back Mount in the runoff resulted in Boustany’s win, an unprecedented win, as he was the first Republican to ever hold this seat. Here are the 2004 runoff results:
U. S. Representative, 7th Congressional District
All 558 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Parish
75,039 55% Charles Boustany, Jr., R Elected
61,493 45% Willie Landry Mount, D Defeated
Boustany should have been and could have been a vulnerable freshman incumbent in 2006. The DCCC and the Louisiana Democratic Party chose to not challenge his seat, however. But Boustany still nonetheless had an opponent in online Democratic activist Mike Stagg, who held Boustany at 71% with little name recognition and very little funding. One also should not dismiss the general state of chaos that plagued and continues to plague this district in the wake of Hurricanes Katrina and Rita. Here are the results of the 2006 open primary:
U. S. Representative, 7th Congressional District
All 517 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Parish
113,720 71% Charles W. Boustany, Jr., R Elected
47,133 29% Mike Stagg, D Defeated
Boustany has done very little to distinguish himself in the House of Representatives during his first term: he did not sponsor legislation while in the majority; and he did not assume a leadership role in the wake of the hurricanes. Now in the minority, I doubt a sophomore Republican will have many opportunities to assume a meaningful role in the legislative process. This should contribute to his vulnerability, as should the historical Democratic lean of his district.
Complicaing his reelection bid in 2008 is the reelection bid of Sen. Mary Landrieu. Landrieu cosponsored legislation with Pete Domenici of New Mexico to earmark offshore oil and gas revenues to the reconstruction of Louisiana’s wetlands, half of which are in Boustany’s district. Landrieu has also directed funds from many different bills to Louisiana, while Boustany has done virtually nothing to help the district, even though he has a seat on the House Transportation Committee.
I mention this, as Landrieu won many of the parishes in Boustany’s district in the 2002 runoff. Here are the results of the 2002 runoff:
Calcasieu Parish
U. S. Senator
All 110 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Precinct
25,918 53% Mary Landrieu, D Elected
22,546 47% Suzanne Haik Terrell, R Defeated
Cameron Parish
U. S. Senator
All 15 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Precinct
1,279 50% Mary Landrieu, D Elected
1,277 50% Suzanne Haik Terrell, R Defeated
Jefferson Davis Parish
U. S. Senator
All 45 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Precinct
4,179 53% Mary Landrieu, D Elected
3,780 47% Suzanne Haik Terrell, R Defeated
Acadia Parish
U. S. Senator
All 65 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Precinct
7,195 47% Mary Landrieu, D Elected
8,214 53% Suzanne Haik Terrell, R Defeated
Vermilion Parish
U. S. Senator
All 62 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Precinct
7,358 51% Mary Landrieu, D Elected
7,042 49% Suzanne Haik Terrell, R Defeated
St. Landry Parish
U. S. Senator
All 85 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Precinct
13,165 58% Mary Landrieu, D Elected
9,648 42% Suzanne Haik Terrell, R Defeated
Lafayette Parish
U. S. Senator
All 111 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Precinct
21,144 41% Mary Landrieu, D Elected
30,568 59% Suzanne Haik Terrell, R Defeated
Evangeline Parish (half of which in district)
U. S. Senator
All 61 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Precinct
4,740 51% Mary Landrieu, D Elected
4,563 49% Suzanne Haik Terrell, R Defeated
Landrieu won every parish except for Acadia and Lafayette, and she trailed Terrell by only 2,600 out of 169,000 cast. In other words, a Louisiana Democrat can compete in this district. The key to victory, however, is to reduce Republican margins in Acadia and Lafayette Parishes.
District 7 can be won by a Democrat, but that Democrat must campaign early, raise funds early and receive support from the Louisiana Democratic Party and the DCCC. 2008 is also an ideal time to run a strong Democrat in District 7, as Federal Elections in Louisiana will no longer follow the jungle primary model of the state. According to theTimes-Picayune,
In 2008, voters will decide the next U.S. Senate and House elections through a series of party primaries and runoffs to select the most popular Democrat, Republican and third-party candidates. The party nominees will then meet in the November general election, along with any independent candidates.
Democrats and Republicans will have separate primaries for federal elections in 2008, in other words, obviating potential intraparty wars similar to the war between Mount and Cravens that cost Democrats the runoff in 2004.
This situation is also advantageous to Democrats for another reason. According to the same Times-Picayune article:
The legacy of that trend still shows up in Louisiana’s voter registration statistics long after other Southern states shifted en masse to the Republican Party. About 54 percent of voters are registered Democrats, compared with 24 percent Republican and 22 percent of other or no affiliation, according to the secretary of state.
If these voters arrive at the polls for the Democratic primary, they will most probably choose a candidate who can compete in all parishes, even Acadia and Lafayette Parishes. This, I believe, can only be advantageous for Louisiana Democrats.
Now the difficult part is to recruit two or three Louisiana Democrats to run for Boustany’s seat. There are, thankfully, many Democrats who hold state office in District 7, and I list their names and their offices below. I also provide other pertinent information.
LOUISIANA STATE HOUSE – Eligible Candidates
Mickey FRITH – District 47
Cameron and Vermilion Parishes
Retired teacher/principal
elected 1995, term limited (ending 2007)
2003 – won 64% against another Dem. in open primary
Elcie J. GUILLORY – District 34
Calcasieu Parish
Retired
elected 1993, term limited (ending 2007)
2003 – won 70% against another Dem. in open primary
Gillis J. PINAC – District 42
Acadia Parish
Corporate Finance
elected 1995, term limited (ending 2007)
2003 – unopposed in open primary
Mickey James GUILLORY – District 41
Acadia, St. Landry and Evangeline Parishes
Retired State Police Officer
elected 2003, final term begins 2011
2003 – defeated Republican 58/42 in open primary
Kenneth Eric LaFLEUR – District 38
Evangeline and St. Landry Parishes
Attorney
elected 1999, final term begins 2007
2003 – defeated Other party candidate 81-91 in open primary
Clara Guilbeau BAUDOIN – District 39
St. Landry, St. Martin and Lafayette Parishes
Public servant
elected 1995, term limited (ending 2007)
2003 – defeated another Dem. and Other party candidate 59-29-12
Wilfred T. PIERRE – District 44
Lafayette Parish
Owner/Manager of Three Frenchmen Janitorial
elected 1991, term limited (ending 2007)
2003 – unopposed
5 Representatives in the state House must retire in 2007 as a result of term limits. This will give them a year to campaign for the seat if they choose to run. The other 2 Representatives also have strong resumes, and they too can be encouraged to run.
LOUISIANA STATE SENATE – Eligible Candidates
Willie L. MOUNT – District 27
Calcasieu Parish
Elected to Senate in 2000, eligible to serve through term ending 2012
Former Mayor of Lake Charles, 1992-1999
Candidate for US House in 2004, lost to a Republican 45/55 in runoff
2003 – unopposed
“Nick” GAUTREAUX – District 26
Vermilion, Acadia, Lafayette and St. Landry Parishes
Elected to Senate in 2004, eligible to serve through term ending 2016
2003 – defeated a Republican 54/46 in open primary
MAYORS OF CITIES – Eligible Candidates
Randy ROACH – Mayor of Lake Charles
Calcasieu Parish, population 70,735
appointed 2000, reelected 2001, reelected 2005, defeating another Dem 85/15 in an open primary
Ron LeLEUX – Mayor of Sulphur
Calcasieu Parish, population 19,901
elected 2002, reelected 2006, defeated another Dem 80/20 in an open primary
Mark PIAZZA – Mayor of Abbeville
Acadia Parish, population 11,698
elected 2002, reelected 2006, defeated another Dem 59/41 in an open primary
Terry W. DUHON – Mayor of Jennings
Jefferson Davis Parish, population 10,712
elected 2003, reelected in 2005, defeating a Republican 70/30 in an open primary
James J. “Jimbo” PETITJEAN – Mayor of Rayne
Acadia Parish, population 8,537
in office since at least 1994, unopposed in 2006
(no website)
Hazel MYERS – Mayor of Scott
Lafayette Parish, population 7,855
in office since at least 1994, reelected in 2006, defeating another Dem 64/36
Charles E. LANGLINAIS – Mayor of Broussard
Lafayette and St. Martin Parishes, population 6,314
elected 2002, reelected in 2006, defeating a Republican 57/43 in an open primary
Glenn L. BRASSEAUX – Mayor of Carencro
Lafayette Parish, population 6,022
OTHER ELECTED OFFICIALS C. Dale SITTIG – Louisiana Public Service Commission, Commissioner District 4
Acadia, Allen, Avoyelles, Beauregard, Calcasieu, Cameron, Catahoula, Evangeline, Grant, Jefferson Davis, LaSalle, Pointe Coupee, Rapides, St. Landry, St. Martin, Vermilion and Vernon Parishes
Louisiana House of Representatives, 1983-1995
Elected 1995, term limited, ending 2010
2004 – unopposed
Officials who were just elected to his or her office are not considered eligible, as are those who will not complete the first term of their office by 2007.
Resources available to activists include the Lafayette Democrats and the Southwest Louisiana Democrats websites and their mutual blog, where 2006 Democratic candidate Mike Stagg and other local Democrats post. The Lafayette Dems have a weekly cable television show, Blue Mondays, where they interview prominent politicians such as Mary Landrieu. Episodes of Blue Mondays are available on YouTube. One of the bloggers at Lafayette Democrats, Anthony Fazzio, is very impressive. Here are two videos with Fazzio, who is an attorney in Lafayette:
Perhaps Anthony Fazzio can be recruited.
Lafayette Democrats are also putting pressure on Boustany, who has voted against the Democrats’ 100 hours. Here is the program:
I hope this helps, and I hope we will recruit and support a Democrat in LA-07 in 2008. Not only will this help us gain a seat in the US House; it will also ensure we do not lose a seat in 2012 when Louisiana will most probably lose a Congressional seat. Making every Louisiana House seat competitive will also aid Mary Landrieu’s 2008 Senate reelection bid.
Earlier today, the Democratic-controlled House of Represenatives passed another major plank of their 100 Hours platform: promoting stem cell research. The legislation sailed through the House with a strong, but not quite veto-proof margin of 253-174. 37 Republicans defected from their party line to vote for this sensible legislation, which as mcjoan describes, “allows addtional stem cell lines; imposes ethical guidelines; contains reporting guidelines; and authorizes federal funds only for stem cells from embryos that fertility clinics would discard.”
Many of those 37 defectors include names that shouldn’t be surprising: Dent, Kirk, Reichert, Porter, Pryce, Shays, Wilson, et cetera–Republicans who either barely beat back stiff challenges in 2006 or those representing purplish (or slightly bluish) territory. It would definitely not be in their best interests to oppose mainstream American values like promoting ethical embryonic stem cell research in the search for cures to end the suffering of millions of families nationwide. However, many House Republicans representing tight districts are sticking to their guns on opposing such legislation in defiance of public opinion, common sense and empathy. I’ve taken the liberty of compiling all of the worst culprits–those representing districts with a PVI of less than R+5.0. With Democrats controlling the legislation in the House, votes like these will be very useful in determining which Republicans are the most badly out of step with their districts.
Member
District
PVI
Bilirakis
FL-09
R+4.3
Buchanan
FL-13
R+4.1
Camp
MI-04
R+4.0
Chabot
OH-01
R+0.5
Diaz-Balart, M.
FL-25
R+4.4
English
PA-03
R+1.6
Feeney
FL-24
R+3.1
Ferguson
NJ-07
R+0.6
Gallegly
CA-24
R+4.8
Garrett
NJ-05
R+4.4
Graves
MO-06
R+4.8
Hayes
NC-08
R+3.0
Keller
FL-08
R+3.0
King
NY-03
D+2.1
Kline
MN-02
R+2.7
Knollenberg
MI-09
R+0.1
Latham
IA-04
D+0.4
Lobiondo
NJ-02
D+4.0
Manzullo
IL-16
R+4.5
McCotter
MI-11
R+1.2
McHugh
NY-23
R+0.2
Mica
FL-07
R+4.1
Miller
MI-10
R+4.4
Murphy
PA-18
R+2.2
Renzi
AZ-01
R+2.2
Reynolds
NY-26
R+2.6
Rogers
AL-03
R+4.3
Rogers
MI-08
R+1.9
Ros-Lehtinen
FL-18
R+4.3
Roskam
IL-06
R+2.9
Ryan
WI-01
R+2.2
Saxton
NJ-03
D+3.3
Smith
NJ-04
R+0.9
Tiberi
OH-12
R+0.7
Walberg
MI-07
R+2.5
Walsh
NY-25
D+3.4
Weldon
FL-15
R+4.1
Weller
IL-11
R+1.1
Check out some of those names: Walsh, Chabot, Ferguson, Reynolds, Renzi, King, Buchanan. Did they learn nothing from November 7, 2006?
So back on December 19th I brought the blogosphre the 50 Republican House seats I thought would most likely flip to the Democrats in the next election. I also promised to update this list once a month. One of the major reason I am able to keep track of the candidates and races is because of the tremendous work of Ron Gunzburger’s at www.politics1.com. I wrote this diary both to look at his work and also to announce that is website is now cleared and already doing a good job covering the 2008 Presidential race as well as the beginning of coverage of the 2008 congressional races. This coverage will be invaluable in my being able to bring update coverage of taking even more Republican seats. So this is a thanks and encouragement for everyone else here to visit politics1.com
I am compiling a list of bills introduced in the 110th Congress dealing with ending, lessening, or keeping at the status quo, American involvement in Iraq.
H.Con.Res.23: Offered by Dennis Kucinich
Expresses the sense of the Congress that troops not be escalated (note the use of the word “escalated”) in Iraq. I may be wrong, but this appears to be a non-binding resolution. Judging from the compartively high number of cosponsors and the fact that Lynch is a cosponsor, it appears this may become a “consensus” piece of legislation, basically hot air but no substance. It has 21 cosponsors as of 12:28 PM EST on January 11:
Rep Capuano, Michael E. [MA-8] | Rep Carson, Julia [IN-7] | Rep Clay, Wm. Lacy [MO-1] | Rep Conyers, John, Jr. [MI-14]| Rep Cummings, Elijah E. [MD-7] | Rep Davis, Danny K. [IL-7] | Rep DeFazio, Peter A. [OR-4] | Rep Fattah, Chaka [PA-2] | Rep Grijalva, Raul M. [AZ-7] | Rep Holt, Rush D. [NJ-12] | Rep Jackson, Jesse L., Jr. [IL-2] | Rep Johnson, Henry C. “Hank,” Jr. [GA-4] | Rep Kilpatrick, Carolyn C. [MI-13] | Rep Lee, Barbara [CA-9] | Rep Lynch, Stephen F. [MA-9] | Rep Moore, Gwen [WI-4] | Rep Serrano, Jose E. [NY-16] | Rep Stark, Fortney Pete [CA-13] | Rep Watson, Diane E. [CA-33] | Rep Woolsey, Lynn C. [CA-6] | Rep Wu, David [OR-1]
H.R.353: Offered by Edward Markey
This one prohibits the use of funds for any escalation. Text of it is currently unavailable. It has nine cosponsors as of 12:36 PM EDT:
Rep Abercrombie, Neil [HI-1] | Rep DeFazio, Peter A. [OR-4] | Rep Delahunt, William D. [MA-10] | Rep DeLauro, Rosa L. [CT-3] | Rep Grijalva, Raul M. [AZ-7] | Rep Hinchey, Maurice D. [NY-22] | Rep McDermott, Jim [WA-7] | Rep McGovern, James P. [MA-3] | Rep Meehan, Martin T. [MA-5]
S.233: Offered by Edward Kennedy
Appears to be very similar to the Markey bill (it’s probable, considering the sponsors are from the same state, that they are intended to be companion bills). It prohibits funds for any escalation. Text is currently not available. It has six cosponsors as of 12:45 PM EST:
Sen Boxer, Barbara [CA] | Sen Harkin, Tom [IA] | Sen Kerry, John F. [MA] | Sen Leahy, Patrick J. [VT] | Sen Menendez, Robert [NJ] | Sen Sanders, Bernard [VT]
S.121: Offered by Russell Feingold
Calls for the withdrawal of American troops from Iraq. Text is currently not available. There is one cosponsor as of 12:50 PM EST:
Sen Boxer, Barbara [CA]
Some things jump out. First, there appears to be no consensus on what to do. We have three strategies in four bills. One states disapproval of the escalation, another bars funding, and a fourth says leave. The first seems to tantamount to huffing and puffing. The second sounds better but is also a major political liability. I could just see the ads saying that Democrats want to leave our troops in the cold. The third is the best strategy, in my opinion, but there are only two Senators currently supporting it.
Second, it appears that most of our prospective presidential candidates are willing to go out on a limb. Only Kerry is willing to do something. Obama, Clinton, Dodd, and Biden are conspicuously silent.
Third, this seems to be a Democratic effort. Even though some Republicans, for example, Rep. Walter Jones of North Carolina and Rep. Ron Paul of Texas, have come out against the war, they are absent. It would appear that many in the Republican Party are a) out of touch with reality and the American and still supporting the war or b) are only publicly condemning the war to save their own asses but not won’t do anything about it.
Fourth, it seems many of the “centrists” are spinless and out of touch as ever.
It’s not exactly a “New York: Drop Dead” kind of moment, but the Democratic National Committee has decided to hold the party’s 2008 nominating convention in Denver, according to Democrats familiar with the decision, heading West in rejecting a bid from New York to hold it there.
The announcement will be made by Howard Dean, the party chairman, later today. Democratic officials had been drawn to Denver for political reasons – Colorado is becoming an increasingly hospitable territory for Democrats – but had held back because of concerns over the availability of hotel rooms and ongoing union unrest there. Democrats said they believed both potential problems had been resolved.
The last Democratic convention held in New York was 1992.
Thought you all would be interested in this report from Don Walton in yesterday’s Lincoln Journal-Star:
Attorney General Jon Bruning led a December poll measuring the strength of potential Republican successors to Sen. Chuck Hagel if Hagel chooses not to seek re-election next year.
The survey was commissioned by David Sokol of Omaha, chairman and CEO of MidAmerican Energy Holdings Company. The results have been making the rounds in GOP circles in Omaha and Lincoln.
* Bruning, 36 percent; Ricketts, 21 percent; Daub, 16 percent, in a three-way race.
Here is what is most interesting about these results, to me:
– They are intentionally skewed in favor of Bruning, using two-way matchups to overstate the actual support that Bruning has among Republican primary voters.
– That said, they do demonstrate that Bruning is relatively strong at this early stage.
– It’s very interesting that despite his horrendous performance in the 2006 general, Ricketts draws anywhere from 21-25% support among Republicans.
Now, there is still no telling who is running in 2008, and a poll 16 months out from the primary doesn’t do us a whole lot of good. But it provides an interesting snapshot – and a very clear indication that Jon Bruning is running for Senate in 2008.
In a bit of a surprise announcement during his swearing in ceremony, Illinios House Speaker and Democratic Party Chairman, Michael Madigan suggested Illinois should move up its primary date from Mid March to the first week of February, according to the Chicago Tribune.
More on the flip
The stated purpose for the suggestion would be to help Illinois’ own, Barack Obama gain early momentum in the Presidential Primary race (I guess we ignore Hillary Clinton’s Illinois roots, which is fine by me).
The secondary impact though is probably the more relevant. Illinois has always been an afterthought in the presidential nominating process. It hasn’t played a vital role in the Democratic party’s nominating process in over 20 years, despite its solid blue status and its 21 electoral votes in the general election.
Even if Obama doesn’t gain the nomination, his rumored run may have real impact on Illinois polictics in the future.
