Swing State Project

I already posted lists ranking the 132 most vulnerable members of the House and the 60 most vulnerable House Democrats.  Rankings are based on PVI, 2004 incumbent or incumbent party performance and 2006 incumbent performance.  Those who received less than 55% of the vote in 2006 are in bold, and House fresh(wo)men are in italics.  Although these rankings are far from definitive, they do provide one with a sense of how the landscape will appear in 2008.

1 CT-04 (SHAYS) D+5
2 WA-08 (REICHERT) D+2
3 PA-06 (GERLACH) D+2
4 NM-01 (WILSON) D+2
5 NV-03 (PORTER) D+1
6 NJ-07 (FERGUSON) R+1
7 NC-08 (HAYES) R+3
8 PA-15 (DENT) D+2
9 MI-09 (KNOLLENBERG) R+0
10 IL-06 (ROSKAM) R+3

11 FL-13 (BUCHANAN) R+4
12 OH-15 (PRYCE) R+1
13 MN-06 (BACHMANN) R+5
14 MI-07 (WALBERG) R+2
15 AZ-01 (RENZI) R+2
16 MI-11 (McCOTTER) R+1
17 NY-26 (REYNOLDS) R+3
18 NY-29 (KUHL) R+5
19 CO-04 (MUSGRAVE) R+9
20 IL-10 (KIRK) D+4

21 VA-02 (DRAKE) R+6
22 OH-01 (CHABOT) R+1
23 NY-13 (FOSSELLA) D+1
24 IL-11 (WELLER) R+1
25 CA-26 (DREIER) R+3
26 CA-50 (BILBRAY) R+5
27 VA-11 (DAVIS) R+1
28 PA-03 (ENGLISH) R+2
29 MN-02 (KLEIN) R+3
30 OH-02 (SCHMIDT) R+13

31 NY-03 (KING) D+2
32 KY-04 (DAVIS) R+12
33 FL-08 (KELLER) R+3
34 IA-04 (LATHAM) D+0
35 NJ-05 (GARRETT) R+4
36 NY-25 (WALSH) D+3
37 MI-08 (ROGERS) R+2
38 NJ-03 (SAXTON) D+3
39 WY-AL (CUBIN) R+19
40 DE-AL (CASTLE) D+7

41 WV-02 (CAPITO) R+5
42 OH-12 (TIBERI) R+1
43 PA-18 (MURPHY) R+2
44 OH-14 (LaTOURETTE) R+2
45 TX-32 (SESSIONS) R+11
46 FL-15 (WELDON) R+3
47 WA-05 (McMORRIS) R+7
48 NJ-02 (LoBIONDO) D+4
49 OH-03 (TURNER) R+3
50 CA-04 (DOOLITTLE) R+11

51 NE-02 (TERRY) R+9
52 NV-02 (HELLER) R+8
53 NE-01 (FORTENBERRY) R+12
54 AZ-02 (FRANKS) R+9
55 VA-10 (WOLF) R+5
56 IL-15 (JOHNSON) R+6
57 AL-03 (ROGERS) R+4
58 MI-04 (CAMP) R+3
59 NM-02 (PEARCE) R+6
60 NC-05 (FOXX) R+15

From the Associated Press today:

Link

INDIAN HILL, Ohio (AP) — An Iraq war veteran who drew national attention when he ran for Congress criticizing the president chased three men who had crashed into a fence outside his home, then guarded them with an assault rifle until police arrived, according to police reports.

The reports involving attorney Paul Hackett came to light during a grand jury investigation. His lawyer, Greg Moore, issued a statement Tuesday in which he acknowledged what happened and said Hackett was distressed ”that the secrecy of the grand jury has been violated.”

Police in the Cincinnati suburb investigated the matter and consider it closed, Chief Chuck Schlie said.

Hackett, a Marine reservist who served seven months in Iraq, attracted a wide following in 2005 when he ran as a Democrat in a special election for a U.S. House seat in southwest Ohio, criticizing President Bush and the Iraq war.

He narrowly lost to Republican Jean Schmidt.

According to a police report, officers were called to Hackett’s home on Nov. 19 after a car crashed into a fence and sped away. The officers arrived to find three men lying face down near their car and Hackett with an assault rifle slung over his shoulder.

”He said he had done this about 200 times in Iraq, but this time there was not a translation problem,” the police report said.

Hackett told police later that he was carrying a civilian model of an AR-15 and that one round was in the chamber but the safety was on. He said he never aimed the weapon at the men or put his finger on the trigger.

The driver of the car was charged with failure to maintain reasonable control, driving under suspension and carrying a concealed weapon, a pair of brass knuckles.

This morning at 10am there will be a press event calling on Roskam to support parts of the First 100 Hours agenda in Schaumburg. I know it’s late notice but I only got the email yesterday. Read on to see how you can join in and help force lil Petey’s hand or if he sticks to his guns highlight just how out of the mainstream he is.

When: Wed., Jan. 10th, at 10am

Where: Roosevelt University in Schaumburg (1400 N. Roosevelt Blvd., Room 707)

What: Press event calling on Roskam to support parts of the First 100 Hours agenda (minimum wage, reducing student loan rates, repealing oil company subsidies, and allowing Medicare to negotiate for lower drug prices)

Citizen Action will be joined by Sierra Club and Illinois Alliance for Retired Americans. This is a non-partisan, issue-based event, but obviously, our goal is to highlight that Roskam opposes these mainstream proposals. If you know any students in the area (or persons who just graduated and have student loans), Medicare drug recipients stuck in the donut hole, or anybody who doesn’t think it’s the taxpayer’s job to guarantee record profits for oil companies they’d love to have you join them. You don’t have to have a reason other than wanting to see a congressman actually represent his consituents’ instead of his contributors’ interests. I won’t be able to make it as my dad has a doctor’s appt. at the VA hospital. 

If you have any questions, contact:
_______________________
Ryan Canney
Organizing Director
312-427-2114 x6
ryan@citizenaction-il.org

(Bumped. – promoted by James L.)

Do you remember Rosalind Kurita, a Tennessee State Senator from Clarksville?  Back in 2005, she challenged Harold Ford, Jr. for the Democratic nomination for the U.S. Senate seat held by the retiring Sen. Bill Frist before dropping out due to anemic fundraising.  I seem to recall that one of the arguments in favor of her candidacy in a few pockets of the netroots was that she was somehow a more “progressive” choice than Ford.  Here’s that “progressivism” in action:

John Wilder’s three decades as lieutenant governor came to an end today – as did Democrats’ 140-year leadership over the Tennessee state Senate.

A last-minute switch by a Democratic senator from Clarksville allowed Wilder to be bested by his Republican rival, state Sen. Majority Leader Ron Ramsey.

An auctioneer from Blountville, Ramsey was elected Senate speaker and lieutenant governor around 12:45 p.m. today in an 18-15 vote.

Wilder had held the post since the early 1970s – but Ramsey defeated him after state Sen. Rosalind Kurita of Clarksville defected from her fellow Democrats and voted with the Republicans for Ramsey. (emphasis added)

The Senate exploded with applause at the last-minute switch.

To clarify the situation, in Tennessee, the Speaker of the Senate also serves as the state’s Lt. Governor.  While the Republicans have enjoyed a 17-16 majority in the TN Senate since 2004, Democrat John Wilder, an 85 year-old living legend, has been able to retain his job as Speaker by relying on the votes of several Republican members.  With those votes gone as a result of a Republican crackdown, and with Sen. Kurita ready and willing to stab her party in the back, Republicans have just claimed control of the State Senate for the first time in 140 years.

With that kind of party loyalty, thank goodness that she wasn’t the one to get a crack at a Senate seat last year.

UPDATE: In the comments below, Knox Dem JJ puts to rest the idea that Kurita’s defection was merely a moot vote:

Kurita’s vote did indeed matter, it’s that simple. Even though the vote was 18-15, she voted ahead of Republican Sen. Williams who broke ranks with Senate Republicans two years ago to help elect Sen. Wilder as Speaker of the Senate/Lt. Governor. When she voted ahead of Williams this year he realized even if he voted for Wilder again, Republican Sen. Ramsey would be elected so when his vote came up he voted to appease his party even though they have vowed to primary him. Sen. Speaker Wilder had said that Williams had told him face to face that he would support him again but with Kurita’s vote going republican William’s vote became moot.

(Hat-tip to Chris Bowers and MyDD’s Breaking Blue)

(And so it begins. This is just a taste of what will be in store for many of our freshman class over the next two years. We need to be prepared to weather this storm and push back aggressively. On another note, it’s pretty interesting that the NRCC would hone their attack on the subject of immigration, considering that it’s next to impossible to find a race where that “hot button” issue gave the Republicans a decisive assist–with the exception of the CA-50 run-off, perhaps.



Update: It’s also possible this this mailer was a holdover from November that somehow got “stuck” in the mail. Stranger things have happened. I’d keep your eyes peeled on the FEC’s independent expenditure page to see if the NRCC reports spending any money in this district. – promoted by James L.)

Cross posted at Say No To Pombo

UPDATE:  This story has now been picked up by the largest newspaper in CA-11, the Contra Costa Times.

Last Thursday, Jerry McNerney took the oath of office as a member of the 110th Congress. A scant five days later, with what must surely be unprecedented speed, the NRCC has sent out its first anti-McNerney campaign mailers of the 2008 election to voters in CA-11. 

It’s worth noting that in the run-up to the 2006 elections, the NRCC spent over $1.3 million to prop up threatened incumbent Rep. Richard Pombo, all to no avail. In the days leading up to November 7, the NRCC sent out no less than 20 anti-McNerney mailers (strikingly, they couldn’t think of one single pro-Pombo message). Looks like old habits die hard.

So if anyone out there thinks that McNerney’s 2008 re-election will be easy simply because he won in 2006 by a 6% margin — er, not so much. Expect a steady drumbeat of anti-McNerney disinformation over the next two years. The only real question is, what are we going to do about it?

(x-posted from the albany project)

It’s official. As expected, Nassau county dems nominated County Legislator Craig Johnson to run against County Clerk, Maureen O’Connell in the Feb 6th special election to replace new state Homeland Security chief Michael Balboni.

As usual, Newsday is all over it.

NY Dems nominate county legislator Johnson for Senate

Craig Johnson, a popular county legislator, was nominated Monday to run for a key state Senate seat being left vacant by Michael Balboni’s departure to Democratic Gov. Eliot Spitzer’s administration as chief of homeland security.

…

Jay Jacobs, chairman of the Nassau County Democrats, said Johnson comes to the table with a solid record and base of supporters.

“He knows how to campaign, voters are used to voting for him and he has an excellent record in the Legislature,” Jacobs said.

Johnson was elected to the 11th Legislative District in a special election in 2000 after the death of the former legislator, Barbara Johnson, his mother.

He was re-elected to the post in 2001 and 2003. In 2005, he received 73 percent of the votes, Jacobs said.

This one is gonna be a dogfight and there’s less than month for these campaigns and the parties to make their case. The stakes are HUGE, especially for the GOP, and their new party chair who has deep roots in the district and will likely pull out all the stops to not only protect the seat, but his own home turf.

As for the Dems, the shakeup at the DSCC probably isn’t so well timed given the gravity of the race. Then again, not like they’ve been particularly effective as of late anyway. This race is going to be very expensive and the money advantage definitely tilts towards the GOP at this moment though the voter registration trends tilt towards the Dems. (the trend from Republican to Democrat has been rather steep and pretty quick)

It’s a very expensive and potentially vicious four week sprint to a conclusion that could have massive implications for the future of the entire Republican party in the state of New York.

Let the dogfight begin!

I already posted a list ranking the 132 most vulnerable members of the House.  Here is a list of the 60 most vulnerable House Democrats.  Rankings are based on PVI, 2004 incumbent or incumbent party performance and 2006 incumbent performance.  Those who received less than 55% of the vote in 2006 are in bold, and House fresh(wo)men are in italics.

1 WI-08 (KAGEN) R+4
2 KS-02 (BOYDA) R+7
3 IN-09 (HILL) R+7
4 FL-16 (MAHONEY)R+2
5 PA-10 (CARNEY) R+8
6 AZ-05 (MITCHELL) R+4
7 TX-22 (LAMPSON) R+15
8 NY-19 (HALL) R+1
9 IL-08 (BEAN) R+5
10 TX-23 (RODRIGUEZ) R+4

11 PA-04 (ALTMIRE) R+3
12 NY-20 (GILLIBRAND) R+3
13 NC-11 (SCHULER) R+7
14 CA-11 (McNERNEY) R+3
15 MN-01 (WALZ) R+1
16 IN-02 (DONNELLY) R+4
17 NH-01 (SHEA-PORTER) R+0
18 NY-24 (ARCURI) R+1
19 KY-03 (YARMUTH) D+2
20 AZ-08 (GIFFORDS) R+1

21 LA-03 (MELANCON) R+5
22 PA-08 (MURPHY) D+3
23 GA-12 (BARROW) D+2
24 TX-17 (EDWARDS) R+18
25 FL-22 (KLEIN) D+4
26 GA-08 (MARSHALL) R+8
27 NH-02 (HODES) D+3
28 IA-03 (BOSWELL) D+1
29 OR-05 (HOOLEY) D+1
30 UT-02 (MATHESON) R+17

31 CO-07 (PERLMUTTER) D+2
32 OH-18 (SPACE) R+6
33 IN-08 (ELLSWORTH) R+9
34 IA-02 (LOEBSACK) D+7
35 CO-03 (SALAZAR) R+6
36 CT-02 (COURTNEY) D+8
37 CT-05 (MURPHY) D+4
38 VT-AL (WELSH) D+9
39 PA-07 (SESTAK) D+4
40 IA-01 (BRALEY) D+5

41 SC-05 (SPRATT) R+6
42 SD-AL (HERSETH) R+10
43 KS-03 (MOORE) R+4
44 TX-27 (ORTIZ) R+1
45 TN-04 (DAVIS) R+3
46 IN-07 (CARSON) D+9
47 PA-17 (HOLDEN) R+7
48 AR-02 (SNYDER) R+0
49 ND-AL (POMEROY) R+13
50 VA-09 (BOUCHER) R+7

51 KY-06 (CHANDLER) R+7
52 NY-01 (BISHOP) D+3
53 TX-15 (HINOJOSA) D+3
54 IL-17 (HARE) D+5
55 TX-28 (CUELLAR) R+1
56 OR-04 (DeFAZIO) D+0
57 WI-03 (KIND) D+3
58 NC-13 (MILLER) D+2
59 NC-02 (ETHERIDGE) R+3
60 WA-03 (BAIRD) D+0

A list of the sixty most vulnerable House Republicans will be generated shortly.

One of things that I love doing on my all too infrequent trips to Washington, DC; along with networking, kicking Rethugs to the curb whenever possible, is being able to pick up “Roll Call” and “The Hill” for free.  One of the articles in the 1/4/06 edition of “Roll Call” was an article from Rep. Tom Cole, the new head of the RCCC.  One of the things that he said was that the RCCC had a debt of around $16 million and that was more than they had realized previously (SNARK WARNING) couldn’t have happened to a nicer group of gals and guys.  He also talks about 60 congressional districts that president bush carried twice that are currently help by Democrats.  I won’t bother you with 39 of them, because they are held by long term, incumbent dedmocrats with large voting percentages.  But there are 21 districts; held by Democrats, who won with under 55%.  The list is as follows:

TX 22nd  Nick Lampson  52%
PA 10th  Christopher Carney  53%
IA 9th  Baron Hill  50%
KS 2nd  Nancy Boyda  51%
LA 3rd  Charlie Melancon  55%
NC 11th  Heath Schuler  54%
IL 8th  Melissa Bean  51%
IN 2nd  Joe Donnelly  54%
GA 8th  Jim Marshall  51%
WI 8th  Steve Kagen  51%
AZ 5th  Harry Mitchell  51%
CA 11th  Jerry McNerney  53%
FL 16th  Tim Mahoney  49%
NY 19th  John Hall  51%
PA 4TH  Jason Altmire  52%
AZ 8th  Gabrielle Giffords  54%
NY 24th  Michael Acuri  54%
MN 1st  Tim Walz  53%
NH 1st  Carol Shea-Porter  52%
IA 3rd  Lenoard Boswell  52%
OR 5th  Darlene Hooley  54%

These are prime cases of defense first along with the districts that Kerry took in 2004 that have elected rethugs.

The Albany Project is very excited to announce the launch of TAPopedia, project very much inspired by both dalyKos’ dKosopedia and SSP’s own race tracker wiki. It’s a heck of an ambitious project and we’re gonna need all the help we can get to turn this into a useful resource for everyone.

Here’s the announcement as it was posted at the albany project:

Introducing TAPopedia!

We here at the albany project are very excited to announce the launch of a new wiki dedicated solely to New York politics. We feel that this tool can fill a very large gap and can, with your help, become a very powerful resource bloggers, journalists and, most importantly, for the citizens of New York.

We’ve built the skeleton, now we need to flesh it out. that’s where you come in.

It’s a wiki, so it will take time and and it will require the participation of plenty of folks to make it into what we hope it can be. We invite everyone to participate and hope you will consider adopting your Senate and/or Assembly districts, your reps, your whatever and pour your knowledge into this project. The wiki will be as good and as useful as we can make it.

Having all this data in one place in an ever growing, searchable pile has a lot of potential in our view.

We are also in the process of working up prototypes of some pretty sophisticated GIS maps that we hope to add soon. This stuff will blow you away.

Let’s build something amazing, people.

You in?

________________________________________

The more folks we can get involved with this thing, the better mousetrap we will build. We can use everyone’s help and I so hope you’ll want to come out and play as well

There’s code for a button at the site, if you are so inclined.

Forward!

Ranking every House seat by PVI, incumbent or incumbent’s party performance in 2004 and incumbent performance in 2006, I have obtained the following list of House seats in order of vulnerablility.  While this list is in no way definitive, it does provide us with a rough sketch of the 2008 landscape.  New members are in italics, and members who received less than 55% are in bold.  Following the name of each incumbent is her or his district’s PVI, which is explicated here.  My calculations also consider the results of special elections and runoffs.

1 WI-08 (KAGEN-D) R+4
2 KS-02 (BOYDA-D) R+7
3 IN-09 (HILL-D) R+7
4 FL-16 (MAHONEY-D) R+2
5 PA-10 (CARNEY-D) R+8
6 AZ-05 (MITCHELL-D) R+4
7 TX-22 (LAMPSON-D) R+15
8 NY-19 (HALL-D) R+1
9 CT-04 (SHAYS-R) D+5
10 IL-08 (BEAN-D) R+5

11 TX-23 (RODRIGUEZ-D) R+4
12 PA-04 (ALTMIRE-D) R+3
13 NY-20 (GILLIBRAND-D) R+3
14 NC-11 (SCHULER-D) R+7
15 WA-08 (REICHERT-R) D+2
16 PA-06 (GERLACH-R) D+2
17 CA-11 (McNERNEY-D) R+3
18 NM-01 (WILSON-R) D+2
19 MN-01 (WALZ-D) R+1
20 NV-03 (PORTER-R) D+1

21 IN-02 (DONNELLY-D) R+4
22 NH-01 (SHEA-PORTER-D) R+0
23 NY-24 (ARCURI-D) R+1
24 KY-03 (YARMUTH-D) D+2
25 AZ-08 (GIFFORDS-D) R+1
26 LA-03 (MELANCON-D) R+5
27 PA-08 (MURPHY-D) D+3
28 GA-12 (BARROW-D) D+2
29 TX-17 (EDWARDS-D) R+18
30 FL-22 (KLEIN-D) D+4

31 NJ-07 (FERGUSON-R) R+1
32 GA-08 (MARSHALL-D) R+8
33 NH-02 (HODES-D) D+3
34 IA-03 (BOSWELL-D) D+1
35 OR-05 (HOOLEY-D) D+1
36 NC-08 (HAYES-R) R+3
37 UT-02 (MATHESON) R+17
38 CO-07 (PERLMUTTER-D) D+2
39 PA-15 (DENT-R) D+2
40 MI-09 (KNOLLENBERG-R) R+0

41 OH-18 (SPACE-D) R+6
42 IL-06 (ROSKAM-R) R+3
43 IN-08 (ELLSWORTH-D) R+9
44 FL-13 (BUCHANAN-R) R+4
45 OH-15 (PRYCE-R) R+1
46 MN-06 (BACHMANN-R) R+5
47 IA-02 (LOEBSACK-D) D+7
48 MI-07 (WALBERG-R) R+2
49 AZ-01 (RENZI-R) R+2
50 CO-03 (SALAZAR-D) R+6

51 MI-11 (McCOTTER-R) R+1
52 CT-02 (COURTNEY-D) D+8
53 NY-26 (REYNOLDS-R) R+3
54 NY-29 (KUHL-R) R+5
55 CO-04 (MUSGRAVE-R) R+9
56 CT-05 (MURPHY-D) D+4
57 IL-10 (KIRK-R) D+4
58 VT-AL (WELSH-D) D+9
59 VA-02 (DRAKE-R) R+6
60 PA-07 (SESTAK-D) D+4

61 OH-01 (CHABOT-R) R+1
62 IA-01 (BRALEY-D) D+5
63 NY-13 (FOSSELLA-R) D+1
64 IL-11 (WELLER-R) R+1
65 CA-26 (DREIER-R) R+3
66 CA-50 (BILBRAY-R) R+5
67 SC-05 (SPRATT-D) R+6
68 VA-11 (DAVIS-R) R+1
69 PA-03 (ENGLISH-R) R+2
70 MN-02 (KLEIN-R) R+3

71 SD-AL (HERSETH-D) R+10
72 KS-03 (MOORE-D) R+4
73 OH-02 (SCHMIDT-R) R+13
74 NY-03 (KING-R) D+2
75 KY-04 (DAVIS-R) R+12
76 FL-08 (KELLER-R) R+3
77 IA-04 (LATHAM-R) D+0
78 NJ-05 (GARRETT-R) R+4
79 NY-25 (WALSH-R) D+3
80 MI-08 (ROGERS-R) R+2

81 NJ-03 (SAXTON-R) D+3
82 TX-27 (ORTIZ-D) R+1
83 WY-AL (CUBIN-R) R+19
84 TN-04 (DAVIS-D) R+3
85 IN-07 (CARSON-D) D+9
86 PA-17 (HOLDEN-D) R+7
87 DE-AL (CASTLE-R) D+7
88 AR-02 (SNYDER-D) R+0
89 ND-AL (POMEROY-D) R+13
90 VA-09 (BOUCHER-D) R+7

91 WV-02 (CAPITO-R) R+5
92 OH-12 (TIBERI-R) R+1
93 KY-06 (CHANDLER-D) R+7
94 PA-18 (MURPHY-R) R+2
95 OH-14 (LaTOURETTE-R) R+2
96 TX-32 (SESSIONS-R) R+11
97 NY-01 (BISHOP-D) D+3
98 TX-15 (HINOJOSA-D) D+3
99 FL-15 (WELDON-R) R+3

100 IL-17 (HARE-D) D+5
101 WA-05 (McMORRIS-R) R+5
102 TX-28 (CUELLAR-D) R+1
103 OR-04 (DeFAZIO-D) D+0
104 NJ-02 (LoBIONDO-R) D+4
105 OH-03 (TURNER-R) R+3
106 WI-03 (KIND-D) D+3
107 NC-13 (MILLER-D) D+2
108 NC-02 (ETHERIDGE-D) R+3
109 CA-04 (DOOLITTLE-R) R+11
110 NE-02 (TERRY-R) R+9

111 NV-02 (HELLER-R) R+8
112 NE-01 (FORTENBERRY-R) R+12
113 WA-03 (BAIRD-D) D+0
114 AZ-02 (FRANKS-R) R+9
115 VA-10 (WOLF-R) R+5
116 MS-04 (TAYLOR-D) R+16
117 IL-15 (JOHNSON-R) R+6
118 TN-06 (GORDON-D) R+4
119 AL-03 (ROGERS-R) R+4
120 MI-04 (CAMP-R) R+3

121 MO-04 (SKELTON-D) R+11
122 WV-01 (MOLLOHAN-D) R+6
123 NM-02 (PEARCE-R) R+6
124 NC-05 (FOXX-R) R+15
125 MO-03 (CARNAHAN-D) D+8
126 OR-01 (WU-D) D+6
127 FL-02 (BOYD-D) R+2
128 IL-13 (BIGGERT-R) R+5
129 OH-16 (REGULA-R) R+3
130 CA-45 (BONO-R) R+3
131 MI-06 (UPTON-R) R+2
132 MN-07 (PETERSON-D) R+6

Lists of the most vulnerable Republican and Democratic House incumbents will be posted shortly.