California, Florida & Illinois: CNN/Time Roundup

Opinion Research for CNN/Time (9/24-28, likely voters):

CA-Sen, CA-Gov (9/2-7 [RVs] in parens):

Barbara Boxer (D-inc): 52 (48)

Carly Fiorina (R): 43 (44)

Jerry Brown (D): 52 (46)

Meg Whitman (R): 43 (48)

(MoE: ±3.5%)

You can sort of sense that Democrats everywhere are letting out a sigh of relief (not unlike the one made by Admiral Ackbar after his fleet concentrated all their firepower on that super-star destroyer) after a string of polls have shown Babs Boxer and Jerry Brown putting some daylight between themselves and their moneyed GOP opponents. (That was certainly accentuated earlier today by the news that the NRSC canceled their ad buy on Carly Fiorina’s behalf in the final week of the campaign.) Among registered voters only, the gaps are even bigger: Boxer leads Fiorina by 56-37, and Brown’s up by 52-39.

FL-Sen, FL-Gov (9/2-7 [RVs] in parens):

Kendrick Meek (D): 23 (24)

Marco Rubio (R): 42 (36)

Charlie Crist (I): 31 (34)

Alex Sink (D): 45 (49)

Rick Scott (R): 47 (42)

(MoE: ±3.5%)

Not as good. Among registered voters, Sink has a slim 46-45 lead over chrome-domed scumbucket Rick Scott.

IL-Sen, IL-Gov (no trend lines):

Alexi Giannoulias (D): 43

Mark Kirk (R): 42

LeAlan Jones (G): 8

Pat Quinn (D-inc): 38

Bill Brady (R): 40

Rich Whitney (G): 4

Scott Lee Cohen (I): 14

(MoE: ±3.5%)

Those are the best numbers we’ve seen for Pat Quinn since… well, a long time. Among RVs, he’s tied at 37-37 with Brady (while Giannoulias gets a 42-38 lead over Kirk). The biggest surprise of the poll is how many votes disgraced ex-Dem Lt. Gov. nominee Scott Lee Cohen is vacuuming up (he runs strongest among Dems, indies, moderates and liberals – go figure). Is he drawing voters that would normally go Democratic, but can’t bring themselves to pull the trigger for Quinn this year?

SSP Daily Digest: 9/29 (Afternoon Edition)

AK-Sen: The Tea Party Express is reloading in Alaska, with Lisa Murkowski having popped up again as a target. They’re launching a new ad blitz starting Monday, although no word on how much they plan to spend on this go-round.

CA-Sen: It seems like the NRSC can read the handwriting on the wall in California: they’ve canceled a $1.9 million ad buy on Carly Fiorina’s behalf for the last week before the election (probably sensing that money’s more valuable in West Virginia). They’re, of course, framing it as “advancing in another direction,” saying they wanted to give her flexibility to spend the money “around the state and not just in one city.”

CO-Sen: Greenberg Quinlan Rosner for DSCC (9/22-26, likely voters, no trendlines):

Michael Bennet (D-inc): 48

Ken Buck (R): 46


The DSCC has the first publicly-offered poll in a while giving Michael Bennet a lead, here up 2 on Ken Buck. (The last poll with a Bennet lead seems to be that joint POS/Fairbank Maslin poll from early September, which had him up by 3.)

DE-Sen: Wow, Christine O’Donnell’s resume (on her LinkedIn profile) is falling apart like it was made out of balsa wood and chewing gum. After getting called on not having actually taken any classes at Oxford yesterday, now it turns out that she never took any classes at Claremont Graduate University. And she’s offering a really strange denial, the kind of thing you might expect from a first-grader rather than a 41-year old: that Linked In profile with her name on it? Yeah, she’s saying she didn’t put it up and doesn’t know who did.

LA-Sen: I don’t know if anyone has compared this yet to that epic-length R. Kelly video that has him hiding in closet and there’s a dwarf apropos of nothing? At any rate, Charlie Melancon is out with a new ad that’s not the first time he’s broached the issue of David Vitter’s, um, personal failings… but this one goes on for two whole minutes, chronicling the whole thing in great detail. Given its remarkable length, it should be no surprise that it’s only running on cable.

NC-Sen: Public Policy Polling (pdf) (9/23-26, likely voters, late Aug. in parentheses):

Elaine Marshall (D): 36 (38)

Richard Burr (R-inc): 49 (43)

Michael Beitler (L):  (6)

Undecided: 11 (13)

(MoE: ±3.8%)

The movement toward Richard Burr (thanks to his seemingly-effective advertising, paid for with his huge financial edge) shown by other pollsters is corroborated by PPP, who’ve tended to see a closer race here in their home state than anyone else. He leads by 13, instead of 5 like last time. One galling number, indicating this could be a real race if Elaine Marshall had any money (not forthcoming, since the DSCC is playing so much defense elsewhere), is that Marshall actually leads 47-45 among those who have an opinion of her.

NV-Sen: Jon Ralston continues to pummel Sharron Angle, this time over her strange attempts to walk back claims that she wants to privatize the VA. “Walk back” may not even be the right word, since her seem to involve the argument that she never actually said the words that she previously said in May. Meanwhile, here’s the level of message discipline they have over at Camp Angle: her own spokesperson is criticizing Angle’s latest ad on immigration as “propaganda,” in her side gig as chair of the Nevada Republican Hispanic Caucus!

WA-Sen: Who’s the most popular politician in America these days? Bill Clinton, believe it or not. So it’s no surprise he’s in demand as Democratic surrogate, and he’s even coming to Washington on Patty Murray’s behalf, headlining a Boeing-themed event in Everett on Oct. 18.

CA-Gov: This story seems to be developing as the day goes on: Meg Whitman’s camp has had to cop to the fact that she once employed a housekeeper who was, gasp, an illegal immigrant. The fight… which will probably determine how much of a story this becomes (if any) over the next few days… seems to be over how much Whitman personally knew about her status (although the non-matching social security number seems like it should’ve been a tipoff).

CO-Gov: Wow, this might actually help Dan Maes climb his way out of polling in the low teens! Today he offers some exculpatory evidence that he did too sorta-kinda work as an undercover officer for a small-town police department in Kansas. (Of course, it also shows that he was in fact fired for leaking information about the probe to the relative of a target.)

OH-Gov: Benenson for Campaign for the Moderate Majority (9/25-27, likely voters, no trendlines):

Ted Strickland (D-inc): 41

John Kasich (R): 40

Undecided: 13

(MoE: ±4%)

You might apply a little salt as this is a poll by a Dem pollster for Dem-sounding group, but this is still the first we’ve seen this in a long, long while… a poll with Ted Strickland in the lead. With a trio of polls in the last few days showing Strickland down by either 1 or 2, there’s some definite late closing in this race. (One strange item, though, is that “other” candidates are eating up 6% of the vote here. I’d be surprised if that continues.)

CO-02: Magellan (9/29, likely voters, no trendlines):

Jared Polis (D-inc): 48

Stephen Bailey (R): 36

Undecided: 8

(MoE: ±3.7%)

I’m not sure why Magellan fired up their crack team of robo-dialers to test this race, not really on anyone’s radar screen — maybe they’re prospecting for unusual targets. As one would expect, Jared Polis isn’t in particular danger in this D+11 district, although thanks to the drag of the national climate his numbers seem softer than the district’s heavy lean.

NC-07: SurveyUSA for Civitas (pdf) (9/24-26, likely voters, no trendlines):

Mike McIntyre (D-inc): 45

Ilario Pantano (R): 46

(MoE: ±4.4%)

SurveyUSA takes a look at NC-07, as part of the Civitas Institute’s rotating cast of pollsters. The (not very comforting) good news is that this is SurveyUSA, which has been putting out very GOP-friendly polling in House races, especially in North Carolina. (See their NC-11 polling, compared to other sources.) The bad news is that this race is pretty low on people’s watch lists, although the NRCC has started to spending some money on ads here.

VA-02: POS for Scott Rigell (9/26-27, likely voters, no trendlines):

Glenn Nye (D-inc): 35

Scott Rigell (R): 42

Kenny Golden (I): 5  

Undecided: 18

(MoE: ±4.9%)

On top of the NRCC internal poll leaked yesterday (giving Scott Rigell a decent if not-awe-inspiring 45-40 lead over Glenn Nye in an Ayres McHenry poll on 9/23-26), now Rigell’s out with his own internal poll from POS giving him a slightly bigger lead. There’s one very strange detail here, though: the voters going for tea-flavored indie Kenny Golden seem to be coming out Glenn Nye’s column, as that subsample has 59/23 Obama approvals. The MoE on that subsample is probably astronomical, but still, there seems to be some message confusion here about who’s who.

WI-07: POS for Sean Duffy (9/21-22, likely voters, no trendlines):

Julie Lassa (D): 43

Sean Duffy (R): 47

(MoE: ±4.9%)

With Julie Lassa having released a poll yesterday showing her down by 1, Sean Duffy retaliated with a poll showing, well, not much difference: his poll has Lassa down by 4. This gets a little confusing, because the NRCC is out with a totally different internal poll today giving Duffy a better result (see below). At any rate, the polls taken in combination seem to give him a definite advantage here.

NRSC: Here are some McCain Bucks that are actually worth something in the real world! Apparently feeling confident in his general (having survived a bigger challenge in his primary from J.D. Hayworth), John McCain just kicked $1 million over to the NRSC. (Alternate title: Good news! From John McCain!)

NRCC: In addition to those couple candidate-released internals, the NRCC leaked five more internals of its own today to the Hotline, the majority of which confirm the expected trouble in three Midwestern open seats, but one showing a sleepy race is a live one and one with flat-out awful numbers for the Dem:

WI-08: Steve Kagen (D-inc) 39%, Reid Ribble (R) 57% (OnMessage, 9/15-16)

IL-17: Phil Hare (D-inc) 43%, Bobby Schilling (R) 44% (Tarrance Group, 9/23-25)

WI-07: Julie Lassa (D) 38%, Sean Duffy (R) 52% (Fabrizio, McLaughlin 9/15-16)

MI-01: Gary McDowell (D) 24%, Dan Benishek (R) 40% (Hill Research, 9/19-22) (um, no polling on Glenn Wilson?)

IN-08: Trent Van Haaften (D) 20%, Larry Buchson (R) 41% (OnMessage, 9/13-14)

American Crossroads: Money’s flowing out of American Crossroads as fast as it flows in, from their handful of billionaire donors: they’re launching TV ad buys worth $724K in CO-Sen, $618K in IL-Sen, $346K in NV-Sen, $267K in PA-Sen, $492K in WA-Sen, $384K in MO-Sen, and also $247K in direct mail in FL-Sen. (Here’s a peek at their WA-Sen ad.)

NFIB: Committees? Who needs ’em? The National Federation of Independent Business is getting straight into the IE business, too, and in a big way. They have a new PA-Sen ad out (see the link). They’re also starting to advertise in NC-Sen, WI-Sen, IN-08, WI-07, ND-AL, OH-16, NM-01, NV-03, FL-08, SC-05, VA-05, and WI-08.

State legislatures: Louis Jacobson, writing for Governing magazine, updates his state legislature projections, with almost every move in the Republicans’ favor. 25 of the 28 chambers “in play” are Democratic-controlled. The most alarming moves include moving the Dem-held Pennsylvania House and Ohio House to Lean Republican, and the North Carolina Senate and Colorado House to Tossup. The one remaining viable pickup opportunity for Dems is the Texas House.

Polltopia: There isn’t exactly anything new in this Politico piece from Maggie Haberman, but it does convey that professional pollsters and poll watchers in the Beltway are throwing up their hands in frustration about wildly vacillating, inconclusive polling this cycle as the rest of us are… showing that, really, nobody has much of a clue as to what’s about to happen. Just to help everyone take a deep breath and keep things in perspective here…


FL-Sen: The winning ad of the day comes from the Florida Democratic Party, on Kendrick Meek’s behalf, letting Charlie Crist do all the talking about how he’s really a conservative Republican

WI-Sen: I actually agree with the Fix here that this is an effective Ron Johnson ad, letting him play the outsider in the same way that Russ Feingold did 18 years ago

WV-Sen: The NRSC contrasts at-home Joe Manchin vs. Washington Joe Manchin

FL-Gov: The FDP is also out with two different ads in the Governor’s race, hitting Rick Scott on his Columbia/HCA tenure and contrasting that with Alex Sink’s uncontroversial time at Bank of America

MA-Gov: The RGA keeps hitting Tim Cahill (on the lottery this time), knowing full well that less Cahill means more Charlie Baker

MD-Gov: Martin O’Malley is one politician embracing instead of fleeing Barack Obama, in a new radio ad

FL-22: Ron Klein is out with another anti-Allen West ad, but it’s back to the tax liens instead of dipping into the well of crazy

IA-01: AFF is out with a mondo-sized ad buy against Bruce Braley in a race that no one else but them seems to be paying attention to (for $800K!) (h/t desmoinesdem)

KS-03: Stephene Moore is finally out with her first TV spot, which is mostly an attack on Kevin Yoder (though self-narrated, which is unusual for that)

NH-02: Ann McLane Kuster’s out with an ad hitting Charlie Bass for wanting to “pick up where he left off”

NV-03: Here’s a link to that Dina Titus “peas in a pod” ad that we mentioned this morning, tying Joe Heck to Sharron Angle

PA-12: Mark Critz’s first ad talks about his own hardscrabble roots, and about outsourcing

WI-07: As cool as it is to watch, how many more ads is Sean Duffy going to keep playing lumberjack in?


OH-Sen: Lee Fisher (D) 42%, Rob Portman (R) 51%

NJ-03: Adler in a Dead Heat

Braun Research for the Rutgers-Eagleton Institute of Politics (9/23-26, likely voters, 8/5-8 [RVs] in parens):

John Adler (D-inc): 41 (31)

Jon Runyan (R): 39 (25)

Peter DeStefano (I): 6 (4)

Undecided: 14 (34)

(MoE: ±5.4%)

Braun offers a number of alternative takes on these numbers, including a sample of just registered voters (which included a “not voting” option), in which Adler beats donkey-powered ex-NFLer Jon Runyan by 40-31. Also note that before including tea-stained indie Peter DeStefano in the mix, Braun tested the race as between Adler, Runyan, and a “Third Party” option; in that match-up, Adler beats Runyan by 44-38. It’s interesting that once a name is plugged into the Third Party column, a dent is made in Adler’s margin. It would help if some of these teabaggers were a little more notorious…

NM-Gov, NM-01, NM-02, NM-03: Martinez Leads, House Races Competitive

NM-Gov: Public Policy Polling for Daily Kos (9/25-26, likely voters, 2/18-20 in parens):

Diane Denish (D): 42 (46)

Susana Martinez (R): 50 (32)

Undecided: 8 (21)

(MoE: ±2.7%)

PPP has been out of the field in New Mexico for seven months, so Martinez’s surge appears slightly more dramatic than it actually was. Any way you slice it, though, these numbers are still a bitter pill for Democrats to swallow. Given that Denish has trailed in both her own and Martinez’s polling by anywhere between 5 and 10 points, this poll suggests that the recent DGA poll purporting to show a tied race is an outlier.

While we’re at it, let’s also sweep up the the state’s three House races…


Martin Heinrich (D-inc): 50 (45)

Jon Barela (R): 43 (36)

Undecided: 7 (19)

(MoE: ±4.2%)


Harry Teague (D-inc): 47 (41)

Steve Pearce (R): 48 (43)

Undecided: 5 (16)

(MoE: ±4.9%)


Ben Ray Lujan (D-inc): 49 (42)

Tom Mullins (R): 43 (36)

Undecided: 8 (22)

(MoE: ±4.2%)

It makes me queasy that Ben Ray Lujan is only six points up in Tom Udall’s old district, but Teague in a dead heat and Heinrich up by 7 are results that I can live a bit more comfortably with. At least all three Democratic House incumbents are out-performing Denish.

AZ-Gov: Brewer: No More Debates… Unless I Need Them!

This is utterly brazen:

Jan Brewer said Tuesday’s she might debate Terry Goddard again – but only if there’s some chance he actually could beat her.

Brewer, in an interview with Capitol Media Services, conceded that her decision to avoid a televised confrontation with her Democratic gubernatorial foe is purely political: She is leading in recent polls, with no sign of her margin narrowing.

In fact, Brewer’s gaffes during last month’s debate – she verbally stumbled, went silent for seconds and mangled her grammar – did not make a dent in her popularity. So at this point, Brewer said she sees no reason to give Goddard another shot at her.

“Maybe there would be a possibility that we would debate if my numbers starting dropping dramatically,” she said. “And, of course, I’m working hard to see that they don’t.”

Points for honesty, I suppose… though I’m not sure why she’d think that a debate rematch would help her in a squeaker! (Recall that she previously said there’d be no more debates, period – because they were too helpful for Goddard.)

CT-Sen, CT-Gov: Dems See Some Erosion

Quinnipiac (9/21-26, likely voters, 9/8-12 in parens):

Richard Blumenthal (D): 49 (51)

Linda McMahon (R): 46 (45)

Undecided 4 (3)

(MoE: ±3%)

Quinnipiac (9/21-26, likely voters, 9/8-12 in parens):

Dan Malloy (D): 45 (50)

Tom Foley (R): 42 (41)

Undecided 12 (8)

(MoE: ±3%)

It does seem like that shiny object in Richard Blumenthal’s rear-view mirror is slowly getting larger and larger; the latest Quinnipiac poll of their home state has him only 3 points ahead of Linda McMahon and (barely) below the 50% mark. It doesn’t seem specific to the Senate race, though; there’s an even larger decline in the gubernatorial race, although, as with the Senate race, it seems like a chunk of that lost Dem support went to undecideds. The closing may have to do with McMahon’s saturation advertising as of late, although she may be running into the same problem as fellow self-funder Meg Whitman in trying to get to 50+1 in a blue state — she may be past the point of diminishing returns on ads (Qpac finds that, by a 56-40 margin, voters find her ads excessive and annoying).

Greenberg Quinlan Rosner for Richard Blumenthal (9/20-23, likely voters, no trendlines):

Richard Blumenthal (D): 52

Linda McMahon (R): 40

Undecided 5

(MoE: ±?%)

Not to worry, the Blumenthal camp was out yesterday with their own internal poll with reassuring numbers: a 12-point lead, with Blumie over 50. You might remember, though, the exact same thing happened last time Quinnipiac came out a few weeks ago, with Dems offering their own internal at the same time showing a better race. That was a DSCC poll by Hamilton Campaigns, so they aren’t really trendlines, but for argument’s sake, those results were 54-39 in favor of Blumenthal. That’s also a 3-point shift in McMahon’s direction, so that would tend to confirm some movement toward McMahon over the last few weeks — the real question, among the dueling polls, is how big the gap was before the movement.

SSP Daily Digest: 9/29 (Morning Edition)

  • FL-08: A poll for Sunshine State News, apparently by a firm called Voter Survey Service, finds GOPer Daniel Webster leading Rep. Alan Grayson 43-36. Tea Party candidate Peg Dunmire is at 6, and independent George Metcalfe takes 3.
  • IL-10: Bob Dold! must have superpowers. That’s because Bob Dold! can seemingly exist in two places at once. He claimed the city of Chicago as his “primary residence” from 2004 to 2006, and received a tax credit for doing so… but somehow also claimed the town of Winnetka as his “permanent residence,” enabling him to register and vote there during the same time period (which he did). So if I’m wrong and Bob Dold! is actually a mere mortal, it seems like it’s either tax fraud or voter fraud. Bob Dold!
  • IL-11: I think this is going to be the last cycle we keep track of this whip count, because now it’s becoming routine. The NRA endorsed Debbie Halvorson.
  • NY-20: Yep, definitely the last cycle. The NRA endorsed Scott Murphy, too.
  • PA-08: Yesterday we mentioned there was a Dem pol of this race, but that we lacked the toplines. Well, now we have the memo. A Harstad Research poll for the SEIU and VoteVets has Dem Rep. Patrick Murphy leading Mike Fitzpatrick 49-46 among likely voters. Interestingly, the poll shows slightly larger Murphy leads when an even tighter voter screen is applied.
  • VA-05: Ugh, this again? SurveyUSA’s latest in VA-05 is pretty much the same as last time (and the time before that). They have Rob Hurt leading by an eye-popping 58-35 margin, a gap not seen in any other polling. Teabagger Jeffrey Clark takes 4%.
  • NRCC: The NRCC claims to be out with a bunch of internal polls, but they only provide the alleged toplines for races in seven districts. Forget about field dates or margins of error – they don’t even bother to tell us who the pollsters are! If you want to know the numbers, you’ll have to click the link.
  • SSP TV:

    • KY-Sen: Is mockery better than scolding? Compare this Jack Conway ad, which wryly features seniors saying they “don’t know what planet Rand Paul is from” when it comes to his Medicare views, with the Halvorson spot below
    • WV-Sen: John Raese attacks Joe Manchin for being soft on coal and buddies with Barack Obama
    • IL-11: A bunch of seniors scold Adam Kinzinger (on Debbie Halvorson’s behalf) for his anti-Social Security views
    • NV-03: Grr… Dina Titus seems to have pulled her latest ad off of YouTube!

    Independent Expenditures:

  • CO-07: American Future Fund drops $560K against Ed Perlmutter
  • A massive stack of DCCC outlays:
  • MD-Gov: O’Malley Opens Up an 11-Point Lead

    Abt SRBI, Inc for the Washington Post (9/22-26, likely voters, 5/3-6 in parens):

    Martin O’Malley (D-inc): 52 (47)

    Bob Ehrlich (R): 41 (47)

    (MoE: ±4%)

    Nice movement for Martin O’Malley here. Bob Ehrlich’s problem? Although he’s winning independents, his message is failing to sway enough Democrats to his campaign:

    Instead, despite widespread concern among Marylanders about the economy and direction of the state, Democrats have moved solidly behind O’Malley. And he is more popular now than at any time a Post poll has been taken since 2004.

    In recent months, O’Malley has moved to invigorate his party’s base by adopting a campaign theme that asks voters to reject a return to Republican control. Four out of five Maryland Democrats say they are enthusiastic about voting for him, according to the poll. O’Malley has also emerged as the candidate more trusted by voters on the top issue in the race: Maryland’s economy. […]

    In 2002, Ehrlich was lifted over his Democratic opponent, Kathleen Kennedy Townsend, in large part by scoring 22 percent among Democrats, according to a Washington Post exit poll that year. Ehrlich, in his losing reelection bid four years later, mustered 15 percent of the Democratic vote. Now, only 10 percent of self-identified Democrats say they back Ehrlich in the re-match.

    Among registered voters, O’Malley’s lead is 49-35, and his job approval rating sits at 57-33. In a year where incumbent Dem Governors have been getting shellacked in the polls, the O’Malley camp has got to be pleased with these numbers.

    OH-Sen, OH-Gov: Two Polls Show Grim Reality for Fisher, But Hope for Strickland?

    CBS News/NY Times (9/23-27, likely voters, no trend lines):

    Lee Fisher (D): 34

    Rob Portman (R): 45

    Undecided: 18

    Ted Strickland (D-inc): 42

    John Kasich (R): 43

    Undecided: 11

    (MoE: ±3.2%)

    Ipsos for Reuters (9/23-25, likely voters, 8/6-8 in parens):

    Lee Fisher (D): 37 (36)

    Rob Portman (R): 50 (43)

    Ted Strickland (D-inc): 46 (39)

    John Kasich (R): 47 (48)

    (MoE: ±4%)

    More of the same for Lee Fisher, a guy whose campaign has few true believers these days. But what’s this? Two polls showing Gov. Ted Strickland only down by a point? That’s the best math we’ve seen for Strickland since May. Even recent polls from Rasmussen and the University of Cincinnati have this race in the low single-digits. Is it reasonable to hope that Ted Strickland has a fighting chance to hold this crucial office, despite the months-long narrative that Ohio Democrats are on the ropes?

    StephenCLE’s House Ratings – September 28

    Welcome one, welcome all to another edition of StephenCLE’s House Ratings.  Today we find ourselves just 5 weeks away from the 2010 midterm elections, and indeed, the battle for the House of Representatives still rages on.  

    You may have noticed that the Democrats have gotten a bit of a bounce in the last 2 weeks in the generic ballot and in some individual district polls.  As a result, the ratings changes were a mixed bag this update, some moving rightward, some moving leftward.  The total takeover math changed very little though, in fact it didn’t change at all.  Two seats ended up flipping, Michael Arcuri’s seat in NY-24 went from red to blue, while Patrick Murphy’s seat in Pennsylvania went from blue to red.  This leaves Republicans 10 seats away from taking over the House, just like 2 weeks ago.

    One enlightening trend, if you’re a Republican, is that there are still democratic seats moving onto the board from the safe category.  That’s an indication that the national environment is still difficult for the Blue Team, and that democrats usually considered safe are having to work harder than normal.  On the other hand, the fact that the republicans don’t seem to be polling as well as the generic ballot would suggest in the swing districts has to be disheartening.  Many marginal districts that the democrats will have to hold to hold the majority, like that of Harry Teague, Stephanie Herseth, Baron Hill, Lincoln Davis, and Jason Altmire, team blue is polling well in.  Even if the Republicans make inroads to some democratic leaning districts, it’s hard to imagine them winning the majority without winning seats like those I just mentioned.  

    Old House – 256 Democrats, 179 Republicans

    New House – 227 Democrats, 208 Republicans

    National Swing – Republicans +29

    Democratic Pickups (5) – DE-1, FL-25, IL-10, LA-2, HI-1

    Republican Pickups (34) – AR-1, AR-2, AZ-5, CO-4, FL-2, FL-8, FL-24, IL-11, IL-14, IN-8, KS-3, LA-3, MD-1, MI-1, MI-7, MS-1, NH-2, ND-1, NY-19, NY-29, OH-1, OH-15, PA-3, PA-7, PA-8, PA-10, PA-11, SC-5, TN-6, TN-8, TX-17, VA-2, VA-5, WA-3,

    Pickup Changes from last month:

    Democrat to Republican – PA-8

    Republican to Democrat – NY-24

    Net Seats Changing By Region:

    Northeast (New England & Mid-Atlantic) – R+8

    Southeast (Border South & Deep South) – R+11

    Midwest (Great Lakes & Plains) – R+8

    West (Rocky Mountains & Pacific Coast) – R+2

    The Map:

    US House 2010 - September 28

    Ratings changes for period September 14-27

    1.Washington-9 – Safe D to Likely D – Some polling from SurveyUSA put this as a 5-point race.  While I don’t think this is a great candidate for a  takeover, it’s plausible that given the D+5 PVI that the margin could be in the lower teens or even high single digits, making it a likely race.

    2.Pennsylvania-13 – Safe D to Likely D – We’ve seen some rather conflicting data from Pennsylvania in recent days, but one thing that’s relatively certain, dem fortunes in the Philly suburbs have turned downward.  It’s enough that Allyson Schwartz’s seat is probably on the fringes of being in play.  Not a great GOP chance here though.

    3.California-18 – Likely D to Lean D – SurveyUSA came out with some polling a ways ago that showed this race in a virtual dead heat.  While that’s not likely, given the fact that Whitman/Fiorina will likely run close or win here (This district is more republican than California as a whole), it’s not implausible that Cardoza could lose.  

    4.Colorado-3 – Likely D to Toss Up – One republican that has seen his fortunes rise in recent weeks is Scott Tipton, who is now polling competitively with democrat John Salazar.  What is depressing for democrats is that John Hickenlooper’s impending blowout victory in the governor’s race doesn’t seem to be impacting the downballot much, as the Maes + Tancredo share seems to be chugging along well not only here, but over in CO-4 too, where Betsy Markey is fighting for her life against Cory Gardner.

    5.Kentucky-3 – Likely D to Safe D – John Yarmuth has polled extremely well in most surveys taken in KY-3, and with Jack Conway set to obliterate Rand Paul here in the Senate race, I’m taking this district off the board.

    6.New York-20 – Likely D to Safe D – This has been one tremendous fail for the NRCC from the very beginning, and on the heels of a poll putting Scott Murphy ahead by 17 points, this one is getting yanked from the board as well.  

    7.Rhode Island-1 – Likely D to Safe D – Here’s an open seat contest that looked somewhat interesting at the outset, but with a democratic/democratic independent surge expected in the governor’s race and with a heavy democratic PVI, I don’t see this one as winnable for the GOP at this point.  Safe.

    8.West Virginia-1 – Lean D to Toss Up – We haven’t seen any polling here for a while, but with Joe Manchin flagging in the Senate race, it seems as though anti-national-democratic sentiment might be running exceptionally high in West Virginia.  My gut instinct is telling me that the GOP will ultimately pick this seat up, but for now I will wait on polling to corroborate that hunch.

    9.Pennsylvania-7 – Toss Up to Lean R – This is perhaps a belated move, and it’s one that I didn’t want to have to make.  I still think there’s a good chance that a late Sestak surge could get Lentz across the line, but there’s no doubting Meehan’s standing as a very solid candidate at a time when the philly burbs seem to be moving rightward.  

    10.Texas-17 – Toss Up to Lean R – With Bill Flores taking a fairly sizeable lead in recent polling, I have no choice but to move this seat further into the red column despite Edwards’s past electoral success.  With all statewide offices except maybe the governorship expected to go republican, Edwards is all alone on his island, defending against the massive red tide of rural Texas.

    11.Arkansas-1 – Lean R to Toss Up – Chad Causey’s internal polling is still showing him ahead by a point or two.  In all reality that probably means he’s losing, but probably by less than 5, which is enough to make this race a toss-up affair.  I’m still very ambivalent about this race because of how badly Blanche Lincoln is likely to get crushed, but from what I’m hearing, Causey’s campaign has been quite good.

    12.Kansas-3 – Lean R to Toss Up – Something strange is going on in Kansas.  It seems as though, despite Brownback and Moran crushing at the top of the ticket, that the democrats are fairing much better in the downballot.  One other house candidate, Raj Goyle, is doing very well in red territory, and everything I’ve read about this race suggests that Stephanie Moore is positioning herself very well too.  Unbelievably we still have no polling on this race, I’d love to see some because I think it’s likely that this race has tightened significantly.

    13.California-3 – Lean R to Toss Up – Polling from last week shows that Dan Lungren’s lead has shrunk a bit, but more importantly, that his favorables are slipping.  Given that Ami Bera has led in the cash-on-hand race all the way here and that this district is moving quickly to the left, I’m feeling much better about Bera’s prospects to spring the upset.  Remember that back in the initial picks back in February that I had Bera winning this one.

    14.Pennsylvania-16 – Safe R to Likely R – There was a poll earlier this week that showed Joe Pitts in a bit of trouble in PA-16.  I’d ignore it, but numbers like these have been repetitive, so it’s on the board now.

    2010 House Big Board (as of September 28 update)

    Solid Dem – 152 seats:

    AL-7, AZ-4, AZ-7, CA-1, CA-5, CA-6, CA-7, CA-8, CA-9, CA-10, CA-11, CA-12, CA-13, CA-14, CA-15, CA-16, CA-17, CA-23, CA-27, CA-28, CA-29, CA-30, CA-31, CA-32, CA-33, CA-34, CA-35, CA-36, CA-37, CA-38, CA-39, CA-43, CA-51, CA-53, CO-1, CO-2, CT-1, CT-2, CT-3, FL-3, FL-11, FL-17, FL-19, FL-20, FL-23, GA-4, GA-5, GA-13, HI-2, IL-1, IL-2, IL-3, IL-4, IL-5, IL-7, IL-8, IL-9, IN-1, IN-7, KY-3, MD-2, MD-3, MD-4, MD-5, MD-7, MD-8, MA-1, MA-2, MA-3, MA-4, MA-6, MA-7, MA-8, MA-9, MI-5, MI-12, MI-13, MI-14, MI-15, MN-4, MN-5, MN-7, MN-8, MS-2, MO-1, MO-3, MO-5, NV-1, NJ-1, NJ-6, NJ-8, NJ-9, NJ-10, NJ-13, NY-2, NY-4, NY-5, NY-6, NY-7, NY-8, NY-9, NY-10, NY-11, NY-12, NY-14, NY-15, NY-16, NY-17, NY-18, NY-20, NY-21, NY-22, NY-27, NY-28, NC-1, NC-4, NC-12, NC-13, OH-9, OH-10, OH-11, OH-17, OK-2, OR-3, OR-4, PA-1, PA-2, PA-14, RI-1, RI-2, SC-6, TN-5, TN-9, TX-9, TX-15, TX-16, TX-18, TX-20, TX-25, TX-27, TX-28, TX-29, TX-30, VT-1, VA-3, VA-8, WA-1, WA-6, WA-7, WV-3, WI-2, WI-4

    Likely Dem – 33 seats:

    Arkansas-4 (Ross)

    Arizona-8 (Giffords)

    California-20 (Costa)

    California-47 (Sanchez)

    Connecticut-4 (Himes)

    Delaware-1 (Open)

    Georgia-2 (Bishop)

    Georgia-12 (Barrow)

    Illinois-12 (Costello)

    Indiana-2 (Donnelly)

    Iowa-1 (Braley)

    Iowa-2 (Loebsack)

    Louisiana-2 (Cao)

    Maine-1 (Pingree)

    Maine-2 (Michaud)

    Massachusetts-5 (Tsongas)

    Minnesota-1 (Walz)

    North Carolina-2 (Etheridge)

    North Carolina-7 (McIntyre)

    North Carolina-11 (Shuler)

    New Jersey-12 (Holt)

    New Mexico-3 (Lujan)

    New York-25 (Maffei)

    Ohio-6 (Wilson)

    Oregon-1 (Wu)

    Pennsylvania-4 (Altmire)

    Pennsylvania-13 (Schwartz)

    Pennsylvania-17 (Holden)

    Virginia-9 (Boucher)

    Virginia-11 (Connelly)

    Utah-2 (Matheson)

    Washington-9 (Smith)

    Wisconsin-3 (Kind)

    Lean Dem – 26 seats:

    Arizona-1 (Kirkpatrick)

    California-18 (Cardoza)

    Colorado-7 (Perlmutter)

    Connecticut-5 (Murphy)

    Georgia-8 (Marshall)

    Hawaii-1 (Djou)

    Idaho-1 (Minnick)

    Illinois-10 (Open)

    Illinois-17 (Hare)

    Indiana-9 (Hill)

    Kentucky-6 (Chandler)

    Massachusetts-10 (Open)

    Michigan-9 (Peters)

    Mississippi-4 (Taylor)

    New Jersey-3 (Adler)

    New Mexico-1 (Heinrich)

    New York-13 (McMahon)

    New York-23 (Owens)

    North Carolina-8 (Kissell)

    Ohio-13 (Sutton)

    Ohio-18 (Space)

    Oregon-5 (Schrader)

    Pennsylvania-12 (Critz)

    South Dakota-1 (Herseth)

    Tennessee-4 (Davis)

    Wisconsin-8 (Kagen)

    Toss Up – 38 seats:

    Arkansas-1 (Open)

    Alabama-2 (Bright)

    Arizona-5 (Mitchell)

    California-3 (Lungren)

    California-11 (McNerney)

    Colorado-3 (Salazar)

    Colorado-4 (Markey)

    Florida-2 (Boyd)

    Florida-8 (Grayson)

    Florida-12 (Open)

    Florida-22 (Klein)

    Florida-24 (Kosmas)

    Florida-25 (Open)

    Illinois-14 (Foster)

    Iowa-3 (Boswell)

    Kansas-3 (Open)

    Maryland-1 (Kratovil)

    Michigan-7 (Schauer)

    Mississippi-1 (Childers)

    Missouri-4 (Skelton)

    Nevada-3 (Titus)

    New Hampshire-1 (Shea-Porter)

    New Mexico-2 (Teague)

    New York-1 (Bishop)

    New York-19 (Hall)

    New York-24 (Arcuri)

    North Dakota-1 (Pomeroy)

    Ohio-15 (Kilroy)

    Ohio-16 (Boccieri)

    Pennsylvania-3 (Dahlkemper)

    Pennsylvania-8 (Murphy)

    Pennsylvania-10 (Carney)

    South Carolina-5 (Spratt)

    Tennessee-8 (Open)

    Texas-23 (Rodriguez)

    Washington-2 (Larsen)

    West Virginia-1 (Open)

    Wisconsin-7 (Open)

    Lean Rep – 17 seats:

    Alabama-5 (Open)

    Arizona-3 (Open)

    California-45 (Bono Mack)

    Illinois-11 (Halvorson)

    Indiana-8 (Open)

    Kansas-4 (Open)

    Michigan-1 (Open)

    Minnesota-6 (Bachmann)

    New Hampshire-2 (Open)

    Ohio-1 (Driehaus)

    Pennsylvania-7 (Open)

    Pennsylvania-11 (Kanjorski)

    Pennsylvania-15 (Dent)

    Virginia-2 (Nye)

    Virginia-5 (Perriello)

    Texas-17 (Edwards)

    Washington-3 (Open)

    Likely Rep – 14 seats:

    Arkansas-2 (Open)

    California-44 (Calvert)

    Indiana-3 (Open)

    Louisiana-3 (Open)

    Michigan-3 (Open)

    Missouri-8 (Emerson)

    Nebraska-2 (Terry)

    New York-29 (Open)

    Ohio-12 (Tiberi)

    Pennsylvania-6 (Gerlach)

    Pennsylvania-16 (Pitts)

    South Carolina-2 (Wilson)

    Virginia-1 (Wittman)

    Washington-8 (Reichert)

    Solid Rep – 155 seats:

    AL-1, AL-3, AL-4, AL-6, AK-1, AZ-2, AZ-6, AR-3, CA-2, CA-4, CA-19, CA-21, CA-22, CA-24, CA-25, CA-26, CA-40, CA-41, CA-42, CA-46, CA-48, CA-49, CA-50, CA-52, CO-5, CO-6, FL-1, FL-4, FL-5, FL-6, FL-7, FL-9, FL-10, FL-13, FL-14, FL-15, FL-16, FL-18, FL-21, GA-1, GA-3, GA-7, GA-9, GA-10, GA-11, ID-2, IL-6, IL-13, IL-15, IL-16, IL-18, IL-19, IN-4, IN-5, IN-6, IA-4, IA-5, KS-1, KS-2, KY-1, KY-2, KY-4, KY-5, LA-1, LA-4, LA-5, LA-6, LA-7, MD-6, MI-2, MI-4, MI-6, MI-8, MI-10, MI-11, MN-2, MN-3, MS-3, MO-2, MO-6, MO-7, MO-9, MT-1, NE-1, NE-3, NV-2, NJ-2, NJ-5, NJ-4, NJ-7, NJ-11, NY-3, NY-26, NC-3, NC-5, NC-6, NC-9, NC-10, OH-2, OH-3, OH-4, OH-5, OH-7, OH-8, OH-14, OK-1, OK-3, OK-4, OK-5, OR-2, PA-5, PA-9, PA-18, PA-19, SC-1, SC-3, SC-4, TN-1, TN-2, TN-3, TN-6, TN-7, TX-1, TX-2, TX-3, TX-4, TX-5, TX-6, TX-7, TX-8, TX-10, TX-11, TX-12, TX-13, TX-14, TX-19, TX-21, TX-22, TX-24, TX-26, TX-31, TX-32, UT-1, UT-3, VA-4, VA-6, VA-7, VA-10, WA-4, WA-5, WV-2, WI-1, WI-5, WI-6, WY-1