We had a pretty good night on election night in the Northeast. We cleaned house. We nailed 1 GOP Senator, 6 House of Reps Districts, 1 State Senate and held on to all of the State Senates, State Houses, US House Reps and US Senators we had coming into this cycle.
That the Northeast is rapidly realigning towards team Blue is undeniable!
But the work my friends has merely begun. Forget the bunkum about us being irretrievably on defense in 2010 come below the fold to see who should be in our sights in 2010 as we stay on offense in the Northeast……..
Just to avoid any debate, (and because I got it wrong last time I tried this) the US Census defines the Northeast region as including 9 states as follows: Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island and Vermont. And aggregating across all 9 states the lay of the land looks like this:
States that voted for Obama: 9/9
Governors: 6/9
US Senators: 14/18 (Counting Sanders and Leiberman as Dems)
House Districts: 68/83
State Senates: 8/9
State Houses: 9/9
Where I think a race is a safe Democratic hold I won’t be saying much about it such as all of our Northeast US Senators and US House races on the ballot in 2010.
Going state by state then:
Connecticut
Gubernatorial – GOP Gov Jodi Rell is quite popular and will likely be looking for a 3rd term. OTOH the Dem bench is VERY deep and a top tier challenger should be able to be found. Problem is who would want to take on such a popular pol?
US Senate – Both Dems (Hey Lieberman isn’t up for re-election in 2010 Dodd is.)
US House – ALL OURS BABY! – Keep an eye on CT-04
State Senate – zzzzzzzzzzz
State House – zzzzzzzzzzz
Maine
Gubernatorial – Dem John Baldacci probably won’t run again which on balance makes this gubernatorial chamber an easier hold for us than otherwise. The only possible exception to this is if either of the GOP US Senators run – a highly unlikely thing to happen.
US Senate – Both Repubs! Not on ballot in 2010
US House – ALL OURS BABY!
State Senate – We actually added to our margin here in 2008 moving it from 18/17 to 20/15 and yep they are all up again in 2010. A chamber to watch but we should be ok in this increasingly reliable state.
State House – zzzzzzzzzz
Massachusetts – aka nothing to see here move right along!
Gubernatorial – zzzzzzzzzzzzzz
US Senate – Both Dems zzzzzzzzzzzz
US House – ALL OURS BABY! zzzzzzzzzzzzz
State Senate – zzzzzzzzzzzzz
State House – zzzzzzzzzzzzz
New Hampshire
Gubernatorial – If Dem Gov Lynch runs he will win. If, as I hope, Lynch runs for the Senate then look for 2nd CD Rep Hodes to run and win for team Blue instead. My how New Hampshire has quickly shifted to us.
US Senate – 1 Dem 1 Rep and the Rep is on the ballot – Judd Gregg. Gregg has a target on his back already and I expect either Gov Lynch or Rep Hodes to run and for this one to be a barn burner.
US House – ALL OURS BABY! – Keep an eye on NH-01
State Senate – No change in 2008 really locks in our 2006 gains.
State House – Nothing really to see here we held onto almost all of our 2006 gains, dropping from 231 to 225 out of 400 we will hang onto this one in 2010 IMHO.
New Jersey
Gubernatorial – On ballot in 2009 (Go Corzine). Any Dem would be favoured to win this one as NJ residents hate all their pols they just hate Democrats less than Republicans.
US Senate – Both Dems
US House –
NJ-02 – If State Senator Jeff Van Drew finally steps up and runs this race becomes very competitive. Hopefully he won’t wait until 2012. If State Sen Jim Whelan runs it could also get competitive in this district that I suspect Obama won and that Bush won by less than 1% in 2004. Will have a Cook Dem PVI.
NJ-04 – Gore carried this district and I think Obama only just fell short so a good candidate here is a must to get it on the radar instead of the second tier candidates we have run thus far.
NJ-05 – Gee I hope 2008 Dem candidate Dennis Shulman runs again in 2010. Holding a GOP incumbent to 56% in this reasonably strong GOP district is a fair effort. Otherwise this one won’t be on the radar in 2010.
NJ-07 – I don’t know what happened here this year but a top tier candidate who is NOT Linda Stender is required. This district is winnable particulalrly with a freshman GOP incumbent. I think Obama carried it also.
NJ-11 – The safest GOP district in NJ and a rarity in the Northeast, (outside Pennsylvania,) a generically safe GOP district. Short of a fantastic candidate this one won’t be on the radar.
Keep an eye on NJ-03.
State Senate – Up in 2011
State House – Up in 2009 zzzzzzzzzz
New York
Gubernatorial – zzzzzzzzzzz – Name one GOPper who could be elected statewide? – exactly.
US Senate – Both Dems. Despite Hillary’s appointment as SOS this one will be held by whichever Dem is appointed IMHO.
US House –
NY-03 – Pete King is genuinely popular in his district and we should be hoping that the rumours of him making a gubernatorial run turn out to be true. Otherwise we really do need a top tier candidate here – paging Tom Suozzi – but that is unlikely unless the seat is Open.
NY-23 – I expect McHugh to retire in 2010; call it a hunch. If so we will easily find a top tier candidate here otherwise McHugh is perceived as unbeatable.
NY-26 – Democrats in this District just got it wrong in the Primary and we need a top tier candidate against a freshman incumbent who only got 55% first time at bat.
Keep an eye on Dem incumbents in NY-24, NY-25 and NY-29.
State Senate – Yep we have just won control of this chamber for the first time in like 3 million years. It should be 32/30 or maybe 33/29 with one race still undecided. With them all up again in 2010 we need to look for GOP State Senators who are in heavily Democratic areas of NYC and unlikely to run again as they are now free of the influence of Joe Bruni (R-thug) who kept a number of GOP Senators in place long after they wanted to retire.
I think the following are potentially competitive races as open, specials or vulnerable incumbents in 2010:
NY SS-06 – GOP incumbent won with 51.5% of the vote in 2008.
NY SS-11 – Race still undecided if Repub incumbent wins it will be by less than 1000 votes.
NY SS-22 – GOP incumbent in heart of blue NYC.
NY SS-42 – GOP incumbent rumoured to be retiring mid-term.
NY SS-44 – GOP incumbent rumoured to be retiring mid-term.
NY SS-56 – GOP incumbent won with 52.2% of the vote.
NY SS-61 – GOP incumbent won with 53.5% of the vote.
Not to mention that an additional 4 or 5 GOP State Senators will be older than 70 in 2010.
State House – zzzzzzzzzzz
Pennsylvania
Gubernatorial – This one might get complicated. Dem Gov Ed Rendell is term limited and Dem Lt Gov Catherine Baker Knoll has just sadly passed away thus making State Senate President Pro Tempore Joe Scarnati the new Lt Gov and he is a Republican. Deep bench on our side including Senator Bob Casey? It goes without saying that the Repubs will have a top tier candidate also. This race makes me nervous as Pennsylvania is less reliably blue than any other state in the North East.
US Senate – 1 of ours (Casey), 1 of theirs (Specter) who is up in 2010. It has been suggested to me that Specter coud be approached to switch which would be fine by me but failing that we have a deep bench and this is a must win if we are to continue the blueing of the Northeast. Specter may yet decide to retire in which case we really are in the box seat for this race.
US House –
PA-05 – This central Pennsylvania district will not be on the radar unless we have an ultra conservative candidate. One of 4 super safe districts in the state for the Republicans.
PA-06 – As probably the single biggest recruiting miss of 2008 this one is infuriating. Gerlach was held to 52% by a 3rd tier candidate and Obama won every county that this district covers. It is also one of only 5 won by Kerry that is occupied by a GOP House Rep. Probably the highest priority house race for the DCCC on offense in the Northeast (open seats notwithstanding).
PA-09 – One of 4 super safe districts in the state for the Republicans. This central Pennsylvania district will not be on the radar unless we have an ultra conservative candidate. Yep just like PA-05.
PA-15 – Like PA-06 Obama carried every county in this one and yep it is also one of only 5 won by Kerry that is occupied by a GOP House Rep. Disappointing 41% for 2008 Dem candidate means we need a top tier challenger here ASAP.
PA-16 – Another super safe district for the GOP. Like the 5th and 9th unlikely to be a priority.
PA-18 – In theory could be vaguely competitive in 2010 (Bush only got 54% here in 2004) but unlikely given the low hanging fruit in the 6th and 15th.
PA-19 – Another super safe district for the GOP. Like the 5th, 6th and 16th unlikely to be a priority in 2010.
Watch Dem incumbents in PA-03 and PA-11.
State Senate – The only State chamber still controlled by the GOP in the Northeast. We actually went backwards there this year dropping from 21/28/1 to 20/29/1. And with only half of the State Senate up every two years this one is a hard one to flip in 2010. However the following should probably be targetted IMHO, particularly if they are open races:
PA SS-06 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama, incumbent got 53.4% in 2006.
PA SS-10 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama, incumbent got 51.5% in 2006.
PA SS-12 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama.
PA SS-16 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama, incumbent got 54.2% in 2006.
PA SS-20 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama.
PA SS-24 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama.
PA SS-26 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama, incumbent got 52.2% in 2006.
PA SS-44 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama.
PA SS-50 – Incumbent got 53.5% in 2006.
Now I am not suggesting that every State Senate race here will be competitive in 2010 as I understand that Blue counties can have Red parts, but if the Red parts of NYC can be turned then Red parts of Blue counties in PA can be turned also.
State House – In 2008 we managed to increase our margin of control from 102/101 to 104/99; still far too close for comfort. Vulnerable Repubs include:
PA SH-4 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama.
PA SH-13 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama.
PA SH-15 – Incumbent got 51.5% in 2008.
PA SH-18 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama.
PA SH-26 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama.
PA SH-28 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama.
PA SH-29 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama.
PA SH-30 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama.
PA SH-31 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama.
PA SH-44 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama.
PA SH-57 – Incumbent got 51.6% in 2008.
PA SH-61 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama.
PA SH-70 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama.
PA SH-75 – Incumbent got 53.3% in 2008.
PA SH-102 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama.
PA SH-104 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama.
PA SH-105 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama.
PA SH-106 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama.
PA SH-128 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama, incumbent got 51.8% in 2008.
PA SH-129 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama.
PA SH-131 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama.
PA SH-134 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama.
PA SH-138 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama.
PA SH-142 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama, incumbent got 51.7% in 2008.
PA SH-146 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama, incumbent got 53.3% in 2008.
PA SH-150 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama.
PA SH-152 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama.
PA SH-155 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama.
PA SH-157 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama.
PA SH-158 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama.
PA SH-160 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama.
PA SH-162 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama.
PA SH-163 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama.
PA SH-164 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama.
PA SH-165 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama.
PA SH-167 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama.
PA SH-168 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama.
PA SH-169 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama.
PA SH-170 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama.
PA SH-172 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama.
PA SH-176 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama.
PA SH-177 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama.
PA SH-178 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama.
PA SH-183 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama.
PA SH-187 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama, incumbent got 52.3% in 2008.
Now I am not suggesting that every State House race here will be competitive in 2010 as I understand that Blue counties can have Red parts, particularly given that State House districts are so small, but if the Red parts of NYC can be turned then Red parts of Blue counties in PA can be turned also. Yep the same thinking that applies to the PA State Senate.
Rhode Island
Gubernatorial – GOP Gov Don Carcieri is term limited! With a bench a mile deep we should be a lock to pick this one up as the GOP bench is almost non existent.
US Senate – Both Dems
US House – ALL OURS BABY!
State Senate – zzzzzzzzzzz
State House – zzzzzzzzzzz
Vermont
Gubernatorial – If GOP Gov Jim Douglas runs he wins I think. However if he runs for the Senate then we should win here EXCEPT for one nasty wrinkle. In Vermont the Progrssive Party frequently run in statewide races which not only splits the left of centre vote but often allows Republicans to get elected. Surely an accomodation must be able to be found to allow us to have a decent shot at this one in 2010. OTOH GOP Lt Gov Brian Dubie is almost the only statewide candidate that the GOP could present and he could make a race of it.
US Senate – Both Dems
US House – ALL OURS BABY!
State Senate – zzzzzzzzzzzz
State House – zzzzzzzzzzzz
What do you think?
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We could do better and we certainly could do worse. I think the state of some of the individual races depends on retirements or attempts by Republican House members to run for Governor or Senator.
If I had to guess, Peter King will wind up running for Governor and Democrats will grab his seat. That brings us to others like Chris Smith, who is not very old but has been in the House since being elected in 1980. Or oldsters like Joe Pitts.
Again, a very early guess but Jim Gerlach will get a strong opponent and will finally be defeated after a long string of near misses. He’s the Chris Shays of 2010: the “nine lives” are up.
I think we will gain at least one seat in NJ (5 or 7) and more if LoBiondo or Smith retire.
If you are right about Jim McHugh, that seat will flip.
At some point, Republicans in this region face the likelihood of being reduced to about six seats unless they get their act together. Pre-2006, they had 32 seats (9 states). After 2006, it was 21 (again 9 states); now it’s 15.
As for the Senate, it is a good chance that they will be left with just the Maine ladies following 2010. Amazing.