Author: Crisitunity

LA Times/USC (9/15-22, likely voters, 5/19-26 in parentheses):

Jerry Brown (D): 49 (44)

Meg Whitman (R): 44 (38)

Undecided: 5 (13)

Barbara Boxer (D-inc): 51 (44)

Carly Fiorina (R): 43 (38)

Undecided: 4 (16)

(MoE: ±3.3%)

Here’s one more poll showing that the Democratic surge-let in California seems to be for real: the newest LA Times/USC poll gives mid-to-high single digit leads to both Jerry Brown and Barbara Boxer. The poll’s trendlines go back to May, so they’ve missed a lot of ups and downs in the race, but the margins are similar to most of the other polls that have come out in the last few weeks. Apparently, all the Democrats needed to do to get some traction in these races was to… start advertising? Who knew?

Also, like most recent California polls, nobody’s very enthused about Brown (40/41) or Boxer (44/41), but they’re the paragon of popularity compared with Whitman (33/44) and Fiorina (24/29). The most popular person in the poll? Barack Obama, at a strangely high 63/33. That lack of disappointment, compared with pretty much every other state, seems to be part of what’s keeping California’s enthusiasm gap down to a manageable level. (Among all respondents, the Brown/Whitman margin isn’t any different, at 46-42. Boxer fares a bit better among all respondents, though, leading 53-38.)

• IA-Sen: Selzer & Co. for Des Moines Register (9/19-22, likely voters, 11/8-11/09 in parentheses):

Roxanne Conlin (D): 30 (30)

Charles Grassley (R-inc): 61 (57)

Undecided: 6 (10)

(MoE: ±4.2%)

Not much to see here other than the remarkable consistency over the almost one year’s period since the previous Selzer poll of this race. (I just learned a new word today, while searching for how to describe this race, linked to the Chet Culver vortex: “syntropy.” It’s synergy + entropy.)

• NH-Sen, NH-Gov: American Research Group (9/22-26, likely voters, Dec. 2009 in parentheses):

Paul Hodes (D): 32 (36)

Kelly Ayotte (R): 46 (43)

Undecided: 20 (21)

John Lynch (D-inc): 42

John Stephen (R): 40

Undecided: 14

(MoE: ±3.5%)

ARG, mateys! Here be a mighty treasure trove of undecided scallywags! (And here be the gubernatorial link.)

• OH-Sen, OH-Gov: Univ. of Cincinnati for various Ohio newspapers (9/16-20, likely voters, 5/11-20 in parentheses):

Lee Fisher (D): 40 (47)

Rob Portman (R): 55 (46)

Undecided: 5 (6)

Ted Strickland (D-inc): 45 (49)

John Kasich (R): 49 (44)

Undecided: 6 (6)

(MoE: ±3.4%)

University of Cincinnati hasn’t been in the field for a while, so they missed the very steady decline of the Dems in Ohio, making it look like more of a sudden collapse. At any rate, this is actually Ted Strickland’s best non-internal showing since early August.

• WA-Sen: Commonsense Ten is out with a $412K independent expenditure in the Washington Senate race, on Patty Murray’s behalf. (Wondering who they are? This Hotline article from July explains how they’re something of a Dem answer to groups like American Crossroads, as well as giving some legal background on just how it came to be that the super-wealthy can give endless money to 527s to spend endlessly on IEs.) Meanwhile, there are dueling ads in Washington. As one might expect, Patty Murray lets Dino Rossi hang himself with his own anti-Boeing words, while Rossi hits Murray on her support of tarps. (Since most Washingtonians own several tarps — they only thing that allows them to go camping during the ten rainy months of the year — I don’t see what the big deal is.)

• WV-Sen: The Dems are definitely getting active in here: the AFL-CIO is out with a huge direct mail blitz in West Virginia, and the DSCC is placing a major ad buy there starting tomorrow. In the meantime, John Raese, Tweeter and Facepage aficionado, is sticking to the GOP party line on global warming: it’s all volcanoes’ fault! (Wait… I thought it was sunspots. They’d better get their stories straight.)

• AK-Gov: Bill Walker, after weeks of dithering in the wake of losing the GOP gubernatorial primary, has formally decided against a write-in bid (despite having an easier-to-spell name than Murkowski). No word on an endorsement of either Sean Parnell or Ethan Berkowitz, although Berkowitz has been steadily reaching out to Walker.

• GA-Gov: With Nathan Deal not really having done much to deflect the attention being paid to his family’s imminent financial collapse, now he’s having to run damage control on another issue: his campaign is accused of having spent $135K to lease aircraft from a company where Deal himself is a part-owner. State ethics law bars candidates from using campaign funds for personal benefit, although the open legal question here is whether this turns into “personal benefit.”

• NM-Gov: Third Eye Strategies for Diane Denish (9/21-23, likely voters, no trendlines):

Diane Denish (D): 46

Susana Martinez (R): 46

Undecided: 7

(MoE: ±4.4%)

This is kind of odd… we just got a Diane Denish internal poll from a totally different pollster (GQR) in the middle of last week. Does she have two different pollsters working for her? At any rate, the news is decidedly better in this one, showing a tie where last week’s poll had her down by 5.

• TX-Gov: Blum & Weprin for Texas newspapers (9/15-22, likely voters, 2/2-10 in parentheses):

Bill White (D): 39 (37)

Rick Perry (R-inc): 46 (43)

Kathie Glass (L): 4 (-)

Deb Shafto (G): 1 (-)

Undecided: 8 (13)

(MoE: ±3.9%)

The Texas race is extremely stable (check out the flatness in Pollster‘s regression lines, with a mid-single-digits spread). While I’d like to think that Bill White can get over 50% on his own, his best hope at this point might be for Libertarian candidate Kathie Glass to start taking a bigger share (presumably out of Rick Perry’s hide, via the same crowd who went for Debra Medina in the primary).

• FL-24: Hamilton Campaigns for Suzanne Kosmas (9/22-23, likely voters, 8/25-29 in parentheses):

Suzanne Kosmas (D-inc): 45 (43)

Sandy Adams (R): 43 (49)

Undecided: 12 (9)

(MoE: ±3.7%)

This is the first internal we’ve seen from Team Kosmas, and while it’s not the kind of numbers that fill you with great confidence (up 2 in one’s own internal), it is an indicator that we’re still looking at a Tossup here instead of Lean R (which is where some of the other prognosticators have been sticking this one). The movement in Kosmas’s direction suggests that voters have found out more about the crazier side of Adams in the wake of her surprise primary victory.

• MS-04: Tarrance Group for Steven Palazzo (9/21-22, likely voters, December 2009 Tarrance Grop poll for NRCC in parentheses):

Gene Taylor (D-inc): 45 (68)

Steven Palazzo (R): 41 (24)

(MoE: ± ?%)

There were reports last week that the NRCC was starting to smell smoke in this race (despite having an underfunded, low-name-rec candidate in Palazzo), and was going to try out a round of polling. Seems like their hunch may be right, as long-time Rep. Gene Taylor (who hasn’t given Dems much reason to take interest in him lately… well, ever, really) is up only by single-digits in a new poll from the Palazzo camp.

• PA-10: Momentum Analysis for Chris Carney (9/23-25, likely voters, no trendlines):

Chris Carney (D-inc): 46

Tom Marino (R): 38

Undecided: 17

(MoE: ±4.9%)

Chris Carney, having been slightly on the wrong end of a public poll from the Times-Leader (and on the very wrong end of that sketchy AFF poll last month), rolls out an internal giving him an 8-point lead over Tom Marino. Marino (who’s pretty underfunded, although the NRCC is starting to get involved) is little-known (only 26/24 faves), so this is going to be one of many races where the Dem’s survival is based on localizing in order to fend off Generic R.

• PA-16: I’m not sure what to make of this: the uphill campaign of Lois Herr (going against Joe Pitts in the 16th, which is solidly Republican but moved a lot in the Dems’ direction in 2008) is out with a second internal poll from PPP that has her within single digits of the GOP incumbent. Pitts leads 41-34, which seems kind of bizarre considering that we’re seeing polls in Pennsylvania with incumbent Dems losing by larger margins than that in much friendlier districts.

• SD-AL: Bennett Petts and Normington for Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (9/22-23, likely voters, no trendlines):

Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (D-inc): 51

Kristi Noem (R): 38

Undecided: 10

(MoE: ±4.9%)

Here’s one race that seems to be becoming a little more comfortable for the Democrats. (Recall that Herseth Sandlin led in the last Rasmussen poll of this race, after months of trailing.) I wonder how much of that has to do with the reveal of Noem’s atrocious driving record, given voters’ memories of leadfooted ex-Rep. Bill Janklow?

• DLCC: If you’re looking to really micro-target your financial contributions to where your dollars get stretched the furthest and the leverage is the greatest (given the knife-edges on which many state legislatures, and the entire 2012 redistricting process, rest) the DLCC has rolled out its “Essential Races” program. This points to some of the tightest races in the tightest chambers; the link details their first wave of 20.

• CA-Init: There are some Field Poll leftovers to look at, concerning three of the biggest initiatives on the ballot this year. The news is good all around, although the margins aren’t decisive: Proposition 19 (marijuana legalization) is passing 49-42 (it was failing 44-48 in the July Field Poll). Proposition 23 (undoing greenhouse gases limiting legislation) is failing 34-45. And maybe most importantly, Proposition 25 (allowing budget passage with a simple majority) is passing 46-30.

• Florida: Mason-Dixon’s latest Florida poll (we gave you Sen and Gov numbers over the weekend) has a lot of miscellany in the fine print that’s worth checking out. They find the GOP leading narrowly in three major downballot races: Pam Bondi leads Dan Gelber in the AG race 38-34, Jeff Atwater leads Loranne Ausley in the CFO race 29-27, and Adam Putnam leads Scott Maddox in the Ag Comm race 36-32. They also find that Amendment 4 has a shot at passing; it’s up 53-26, although bear in mind that you need to clear 60% for a Florida initiative. Amendment 4 would require localities to put changes to comprehensive zoning plans up to a public vote; Josh Goodman has a good discussion of it today along with several other initiatives in other states that may pass despite having both sides of the entire political establishment lined up against them.

• SSP TV:

• FL-Sen: Marco Rubio rolls out his first ad en espanol, a biographical spot

• PA-Sen: How many freakin’ ads has Pat Toomey come out with? Anyway, here’s another one

• CT-02: Joe Courtney stresses his independence, especially regarding TARP

• CT-05: Chris Murphy’s new ad focuses on stopping outsourcing

• PA-03, PA-11: The DCCC is out with new ads in the 3rd and 11th, continuing the trends of hitting Mike Kelly as out-of-touch millionaire and hitting Lou Barletta for sucking as Hazleton mayor

• Rasmussen:

• AL-Sen: William Barnes (D) 30%, Richard Shelby (R-inc) 58%

• CT-Sen: Richard Blumenthal (D) 50%, Linda McMahon (R) 45%

• DE-Sen: Chris Coons (D) 49%, Christine O’Donnell (R) 40%, Mike Castle (I) 5%

• GA-Sen: Michael Thurmond (D) 36%, Johnny Isakson (R-inc) 52%

• IA-Gov: Chet Culver (D-inc) 37%, Terry Branstad (R) 55%

• ND-Sen: Tracy Potter (D) 25%, John Hoeven (R) 68%

• SC-Sen: Alvin Greene (D) 21%, Jim DeMint (R-inc) 64%

Andrew Cuomo is going to have to win the New York gubernatorial race on the merits, instead of standing back while the ballot line split between Carl Paladino on the GOP line and Rick Lazio on the Conservative line does his work for him. Lazio has pulled the plug on his bid:

Rick Lazio announced that he is dropping out of the race for New York governor today, ending speculation that he might run on the Conservative Party line.

Lazio, who will reportedly be nominated for a judgeship in the Bronx tonight, said he is dropping out in a press conference today. In his remarks, he called his victorious primary opponent Carl Paladino “flawed,” City Hall News reports.

Remember that in New York, the only way to get your name off the ballot is to die or get nominated for a judgeship. Today was the deadline for such a nomination, and it looks like he found someone willing to nominate him. At any rate, Lazio’s name won’t appear on the ballot, which would have siphoned votes from Paladino even if he hadn’t actively campaigned. With Lazio having polled in the single digits (in those post-primary polls that bothered to mention him) and Cuomo polling over 50, this doesn’t seem to change the election’s trajectory much, but it does reinforce that Cuomo is going to have to work for this and not treat it as a coronation.

• DE-Sen: One more Real World alum in the political news: that’s first-season vet Eric Neis debating Christine O’Donnell in this new 90s video that’s surfaced. Ooops, I’m burying the lede: the point of the video is that O’Donnell answers in the affirmative when asked if she wants to stop the whole country from having sex.

• KY-Sen: Benenson Strategy Group for DSCC (9/14-19, likely voters, early Sept. in parentheses):

Jack Conway (D): 42 (45)

Rand Paul (R): 45 (47)

Undecided: 13 (8)

(MoE: ±3.7%)

The newest Benenson poll from the DSCC shows things pretty stable in the Kentucky race, with Jack Conway hanging back within striking distance of Rand Paul. They also find Conway leading 48-45 among those who actually know both candidates (and find Paul with greater name recognition: 84%, to 72% for Conway).

• MO-Sen: The DSCC is also out with an internal poll in Missouri, one of the other races where they’d like you to know they’re still playing offense, courtesy of Garin Hart Yang (no mention of the dates, MoE, or any of that useful stuff, though… just a leak to the Fix). The poll has Robin Carnahan trailing Roy Blunt 45-41 (and only 41-40 without leaners). Roy Blunt, meanwhile, is engaging in typical frontrunner behavior, trying to limit debates (to avoid any grist for the negative ad mill); there will only be two debates, neither in a network TV setting.

• NC-Sen: National Research for Civitas (9/15-17, likely voters, 7/19-21 in parentheses):

Elaine Marshall (D): 29 (37)

Richard Burr (R-inc): 49 (44)

Mike Beitler (L): 3 (3)

Undecided: 17 (15)

(MoE: ±4%)

Thanks to a big lead with unaffiliateds (48-21), Richard Burr has a big lead in North Carolina. With a big financial disparity, unless there’s some outside assistance, that lead’s probably going to continue (although I’d be surprised if it’s actually a full 20 points). One other interesting note: Civitas hires out third-party pollsters, and this is their first poll since they switched to Republican internal pollster National Research.

• NV-Sen, NV-Gov: The only evidence we have of this poll is a Jon Ralston tweet, but apparently there’s a poll rumbling around behind the scenes from a reputable Republican pollster that gives a 5-point lead to Harry Reid, 42-37 (among RVs). That’s quite plausible; the real shock here, though, is that it also finds Rory Reid trailing only by 6 in the governor’s race.

• WV-Sen: The big news here is probably that the NRSC is plowing $1.2 million into this race, hoping for the upset (as this race seems to be increasingly taking the place of Washington and California) or at least to pull DSCC fire away from elsewhere. That’s just to run one new ad, tying Joe Manchin to Barack Obama; part of the expense is that the ad is running in the DC market, so it can reach the Panhandle. (You can see the IE filing here.)

One more plus, though, for Joe Manchin, is that he’s getting the NRA’s endorsement (one more in a seemingly endless parade of ConservaDems getting backed this week). Also, some details about John Raese are surfacing that may lead to ads that write themselves: photos of his marble-driveway Florida mansion, where it turns out his family lives full-time (presumably because of Florida’s big juicy homestead exemption, but also because of the schools, as he wants a school system he “believes in”)… and Raese’s own description, in a radio interview yesterday, of how hard he worked for his riches:

RAESE: I made my money the old-fashioned way, I inherited it. I think that’s a great thing to do. I hope more people in this country have that opportunity as soon as we abolish inheritance tax in this country, which is a key part of my program.

• AZ-Gov: Here’s a look at the financial situation in Arizona, where both gubernatorial candidates are relying on clean elections public financing in their bids. Dem Terry Goddard has about $1 million left to spend, while Jan Brewer has $860K left. Goddard also spent more in the last reporting period, spending $477K to Brewer’s $291K.

• MA-Gov: If you’re shedding your main campaign strategist with 40 days to go, that’s probably a sign that you’re not going to win. That’s what happened with the Tim Cahill camp, who said goodbye to John Weaver. Having seen Cahill’s share plunge into the single digits, Weaver said (in a parting shot) at this point, Cahill’s candidacy is just hurting Charlie Baker’s chances.

• NY-Gov: Marist (9/14-19, likely voters, no trendlines):

Andrew Cuomo (D): 53 (67)

Carl Paladino (R): 34 (22)

Rick Lazio (C) : 9 (NA)

Undecided: 6 (11)

(MoE: ±4%)

I don’t know if the Marist poll exactly qualifies as a tie-breaker in the New York gubernatorial race, but it’s a likely voter poll (instead of an RV poll, like Siena), and it doesn’t have that outlier-ish whiff that Quinnipiac had. Also adding to its potential credibility: it’s about halfway between the two, if erring somewhat on the side of Andrew Cuomo’s safety. (It looks like they’ll release Senate numbers later, separately.)

• CA-47: This is the first time I’ve ever used the scary all-caps to put words in the mouth of a Democratic candidate, but Loretta Sanchez just sent up the alarm that THE VIETNAMESE ARE COMING FOR HER SEAT!!!1!! Not just Van Tran, but apparently all of them!!! I suppose that’s a dog-whistle of sorts to her Latino base in this seat that has a Latino majority (though not a lot of actual voters among them) and a politically active Asian minority, where her Republican challenger is Vietnamese. Kind of a faceplant moment for Sanchez, who has had good outreach to the Vietnamese community in the past (up until now, I’d imagine) and has relied on their votes to stay in office.

• MI-01: Greenberg Quinlan Rosner for Gary McDowell (9/21-22, likely voters, no trendlines):

Gary McDowell (D): 38

Dan Benishek (R): 41

Glenn Wilson (I): 12

Undecided: 9

(MoE: ±4.4%)

Here are some not-bad numbers from an internal for Gary McDowell, showing this is one of the few Republican-leaning open seats where we’re still in fighting shape right now. McDowell’s offering some pushback against a Dan Benishek internal that gave Benishek a 39-25 lead in a race that also includes wealthy independent Glenn Wilson.

• MI-07: It’s a little late in the game for ex-Rep. Tim Walberg to be jumping on the birther train (that’s so 2009…) but he just said that he doesn’t know if Obama was born in the U.S. Meanwhile, his incumbent Dem opponent, Mark Schauer, is out with an internal poll in response to the Rossman Group poll that gave a 4-point lead to Walberg. Schauer’s poll, taken 9/21-22 by Myers Research, finds a mirror-image 4-point lead for Schauer, 49-45 (or if you’d prefer inclusion of all third-party candidates, he’s up 45-43).  

• NRCC: The NRCC is wading into six more districts that they haven’t been in before, with IE ad buys. Most (except for WA-03) of these districts feel like “Lean Dem” districts right now, but where the GOP thinks it can make some inroads: Ike Skelton’s MO-04, Chris Carney’s PA-10, Steve Kagen’s WI-08, Martin Heinrich’s NM-01, and the open seats in MA-10 and WA-03.

• AFF: The financially-disadvantaged NRCC can’t win this all on its own, so AFF is keeping up its IEs, too. They’re going on the air in four new districts, two of which overlap the above list. They’re hitting SD-AL ($360K), TX-17 ($117K), NM-01 ($290K), and WA-03 ($875K).

• SSP TV:

• CO-Sen: The softer side of Ken Buck? He’s out with a positive ad with testimonials from senior citizens

• FL-Sen: Charlie Crist simultaneously hits both his opponents on corruption issues in one ad, hitting Kendrick Meek’s real estate dealing and Marco Rubio’s enthusiastic use of RPOF credit cards

• NC-Sen: It seemed to work well the first time for Richard Burr, so the rocking chair guys are back for another round

• NV-Sen: The newest ad from Harry Reid hits Sharron Angle for not supporting requiring health insurers to cover mammograms and colonoscopies

• NY-Sen-A: Chuck Schumer’s running his first ad of the cycle, a bio spot, on local cable

• PA-Sen: Pat Toomey’s newest ad is a hard negative one linking Joe Sestak to Barack Obama; interestingly, it’s not running in the Philadelphia market

• WA-Sen: Dem group Commonsense Ten is out with an anti-Dino Rossi ad throwing the kitchen sink at him, including the foreclosure seminars

• CA-Gov: The latest Meg Whitman opus attacks Jerry Brown over Oakland schools during his tenure as mayor

• CA-47: Loretta Sanchez launches a negative ad against Van Tran, featuring him asleep on the job (during an Assembly budget all-nighter)

• LA-03: Bet you’d forgotten there’s still one race where the field isn’t set? (There’s still a GOP runoff here.) Anyway, Hunt Downer is out with an ad full of adorable babies… to make the point that Jeff Landry is insufficiently pro-life

• PA-03: Kathy Dahlkemper engages in some fat-cat bashing, tying Mike Kelly to Wall Street

• Rasmussen:

• FL-Gov: Alex Sink (D) 44%, Rick Scott (R) 50%

• FL-Sen: Kendrick Meek (D) 21%, Marco Rubio (R) 40%, Charlie Crist (I) 31%

• MN-Gov: Mark Dayton (D) 41%, Tom Emmer (R) 42%, Tom Horner (I) 9%

• OK-Gov: Jari Askins (D) 34%, Mary Fallin (R) 60%

• SC-Gov: Vincent Sheheen (D) 33%, Nikki Haley (R) 50%

• TX-Gov: Bill White (D) 42%, Rick Perry (R-inc) 48%

Field Poll (9/14-21, likely voters, 6/22-7/5 in parentheses):

Barbara Boxer (D-inc): 47 (47)

Carly Fiorina (R): 41 (44)

Undecided: 12 (9)

(MoE: ±4.1%)

The Senate half of the Field Poll is out today, giving Barbara Boxer an increased lead over Carly Fiorina from the previous poll in early July. Oddly, though, the lead doesn’t come from gains for either candidate, but from voters moving from Fiorina to “undecided.” To me, that’s pretty suggestive that Boxer’s ad campaign so far (which includes a spot hitting Fiorina for her tenure at HP) has been effective at driving up Fiorina’s negatives.

Compared with the gubernatorial race, where both candidates are playing to the center and courting swing voters, this is one about base agitation, and there’s just a much larger Dem base in California. On top of that, Boxer leads 48-29 among Latinos (a much bigger spread than in the governor’s race, where Meg Whitman has spent a lot on Latino outreach), and even leads 46-40 among independents. Unless Fiorina can find a way to either take a huge lead among indies or to get a lot of Democrats to stay home, she’s not on track to win this.

Field Poll (9/14-21, likely voters, 6/22-7/5 in parentheses):

Jerry Brown (D): 41 (44)

Meg Whitman (R): 41 (43)

Undecided: 18 (13)

(MoE: ±4.1%)

I asked just a few days ago where the heck the Field Poll was, and lo and behold, here they are. Same as most pollsters, they find that nobody’s that into either Jerry Brown or Meg Whitman (44/47 faves for Brown, 40/45 for Whitman). With Meg Whitman’s giant ad blitz canceling out the blue tint of the state, they’re basically fighting to a draw. The one thing keeping Whitman in this is relative strength among Latinos (she trails only 43-40, thanks to a heavy outreach program).

The trendlines actually show Brown losing ground, but these results are actually good, because they seem to punctuate the end of a period where Whitman surged ahead of Brown among all pollsters (that seems to have abruptly come to an end with the most recent PPP, Rasmussen, and SurveyUSA polls) that the Field Poll simply missed thanks to the long lag between polls. Whitman seems to have had two spikes, one in March and one in August; I don’t what to attribute them to, other than perhaps disparities in advertising, but at any rate this is what they look like visually (with smoothing cranked up to “highly sensitive”):

SurveyUSA for KABC-TV (9/19-21, likely voters, 8/31-9/1 in parentheses):

Jerry Brown (D): 46 (40)

Meg Whitman (R): 43 (47)

Other: 8 (9)

Undecided: 3 (4)

Barbara Boxer (D-inc): 49 (46)

Carly Fiorina (R): 43 (48)

Other: 6 (5)

Undecided: 2 (1)

(MoE: ±4%)

Here are those SurveyUSA results that I referenced above, a pretty big turnaround from their last set, with both races flipping in favor of the Dems. These contain good news for Barbara Boxer as well as Brown (it looks like the Field Poll Senate results will get released a different date): more support, along with SurveyUSA’s WA-Sen poll this morning, for the premise that a West Coast Firewall(TM) is forming even as new Dem Senate problems keep popping up further east.

SurveyUSA is also tracking two other key races, Lt. Governor and pro-marijuana Prop 19. They find Dem Gavin Newsom leading GOP incumbent Abel Maldonado 44-41 in the LG race, and the pro-pot forces winning, 47-42. These are pretty similar numbers that PPP found in last week’s survey, just released in a couple miscellany posts: they find Newsom leading Maldonado 39-36, and Prop 19 passing 47-38, even suggesting that its presence on the ballot is helping to mellow out the enthusiasm gap that’s a major buzzkill in other states. PPP also finds 46-44 support for gay marriage next time that hits the ballot, and 42-16 support for nonpartisan congressional redistricting in Prop 20.

• CO-Sen: Ken Buck is running back to the middle, or at least the far right field instead of completely out of the ballpark, as he faces a close race in the general. He’s backing down on his previous support of Colorado’s “personhood” amendment (granting legal rights to embryos) that’s on Colorado’s ballot again, saying he’s against it despite loudly touting it during his primary bid.

• NV-Sen: Observers are wondering if this is Sharron Angle’s true chickens-for-checkups moment (in a campaign that’s already littered with quotes that contend for that honor). A video from a 2009 tea party rally by a Dem tracker shows Angle taking issue with a recently passed Nevada state law requires insurance carriers to cover “autism.” (And yes, she makes exaggerated air quotes while saying “autism.”) I suppose she thinks it’s nothing a good massage, sauna, and some aromatherapy can’t fix.

• CO-Gov: While John Hickenlooper seems to skate toward the Governor’s Mansion, Dan Maes and Tom Tancredo are descending even more comically into fighting to see who can garner a smaller share of the minority. Maes just called Tancredo “an illegal immigrant” (given Tanc’s fixations, probably the single worst thing he could be called) in the gubernatorial race, seeing as how he “cheated his way in the back door.”

• ID-01: Another day, another endorsement for Walt Minnick from another conservative organization looking to back one token Dem as a badge of bipartisanship. Today, he became the only Dem with the seal of approval from the Citizens Against Government Waste PAC.

• KY-06: Republican challenger Andy Barr, having been on the very wrong end of a couple Democratic polls in the last few weeks (giving Ben Chandler 20 and 14 point leads), comes out with his own internal to demonstrate that he’s not that dead yet. His own poll, from the Tarrance Group, gives Chandler only a 49-42 lead, in the wake of Chandler attack ads tying Barr to his previous boss, disgraced ex-Gov. Ernie Fletcher.

• PA-08: Franklin & Marshall (9/14-19, likely voters, no trendlines):

Patrick Murphy (D-inc): 35

Mike Fitzpatrick (R): 49

(MoE: ±4.5%)

It’s unexpected to see Patrick Murphy, in the friendlier confines of the 8th, in worse shape than Kathy Dahlkemper in the 3rd (trailing narrowly in a different F&M poll with the same timeframe). He’s down 46-36 among RVs.

• PA-11: The Realtors® ride to Paul Kanjorski’s rescue yet again! I’m not sure why they have such love for Kanjo in particular among Dems, but today they’re slapping down $243K on his behalf. Recall that they spent over $1.3 million saving his hide in 2008.

• TX-17: Wow, that’s a big lead. Republican pollster OnMessage, on behalf of Bill Flores, gives their client a 55-36 lead over Dem incumbent Chet Edwards, over 9/19-20. I wonder if this’ll motivate Edwards, who notoriously holds his cards close to his vest, to roll out a response (if he has one). The article also notes that AFF is going on the air in the district with a new ad tying Edwards to (gee, guess who) Nancy Pelosi.

• DSCC: Reid Wilson has three new big buys from the DSCC in key states: $335K in Colorado, $235K in Illinois, and $470K in Pennsylvania.

• Redistricting: Here’s an interesting piece from Josh Goodman, for those of you among us who like looking at long lists of population figures. (I know I do.) It suggests that the redistricting axe is going to have to fall hardest on rural areas, which is a positive note for Dems; Census data (based on the 2009 ACS… you’re going to have to wait a few more months for 2010 data!) shows that the almost all of nation’s largest cities have grown (some remarkably so) or at least held steady.

• SSP TV:

• CA-Sen: Carly Fiorina calls Barbara Boxer “arrogant,” citing her notorious examination of Brig. Gen. Michael Walsh

• NY-Gov: Andrew Cuomo has a target-rich environment for negative ads with Carl Paladino; one hit from his new ad includes Paladino’s job creation record (or lack thereof)

• OH-Gov: Ted Strickland belatedly tries out “You want angry? I’ll give you angry!”

• OR-Gov: The SEIU hits Chris Dudley on his proposed income tax cuts for the wealthy

• PA-06: Manan Trivedi does the jujitsu move on Jim Gerlach’s hits on his residency, pointing he was busy, y’know, serving the military overseas during the years in question

• AJS: Americans for Job Securities targets four Dem-held seats with cookie-cutter neg ads: IN-08, OH-18, PA-04, and PA-07.

• Rasmussen:

• AL-Gov: Ron Sparks (D) 35%, Robert Bentley (R) 55%

• GA-Gov: Roy Barnes (D) 39%, Nathan Deal (R) 45%, John Monds (L) 5%

• MO-Sen: Robin Carnahan (D) 44%, Roy Blunt (R) 52%

• ND-AL: Earl Pomeroy (D-inc) 45%, Rick Berg (R) 48%

SurveyUSA for KING-TV (9/19-21, likely voters, 8/18-19 in parentheses):

Patty Murray (D-inc): 50 (45)

Dino Rossi (R): 48 (52)

Undecided: 3 (3)

(MoE: ±4.1%)

Aside from the occasional Rasmussen poll showing a small Dino Rossi lead, most of Rossi’s strength in polling this cycle has come from SurveyUSA (who’ve, rightly or wrongly, become something of our preferred punching-bag among pollsters in the last few months). Well, SurveyUSA still seems to be outlying to the right by a few points, among the latest round of polls (also from Elway, CNN/Time, and Rasmussen), but they’re also moving along with a definite movement in the Democratic direction in this race in the last few weeks, to the extent that even they’re now showing a Patty Murray lead. Check out the movement in visual form (cheating slightly, by dialing the smoothing up to “more sensitive”):

Part of the flip in Murray’s favor may be that SurveyUSA actually got some young people to pick up their phones this time: Murray leads Rossi 54-46 among the 18-34 set. Rossi’s only pocket of strength left is those cynical members of Generation X (he leads 55-41 among the 35-49 demographic). Rossi also leads 54-41 among self-described “Independents” (kind of a silly question, since there’s no party registration in Washington), although he’s down 63-33 among self-described “moderates,” suggesting that “moderates” tend to identify pretty strongly Democratic these days, at least in Washington.

Quinnipiac (9/15-19, likely voters, 7/6-11 (using RVs) in parens):

Joe Sestak (D): 43 (43)

Pat Toomey (R): 50 (43)

Undecided: 7 (12)

(MoE: 3.8%)

Quinnipiac (9/15-19, likely voters, 7/6-11 (using RVs) in parens):

Dan Onorato (D): 39 (37)

Tom Corbett (R): 54 (44)

Undecided: 7 (18)

(MoE: 3.8%)

Say what you will about the Pennsylvania Senate race; it’s consistent if nothing else. Quinnipiac’s 7-point Pat Toomey edge is disappointing considering that their last look was tied, but that was using their registered voter model, and that’s actually a less drastic RV/LV shift than we’ve seen in a few other states (like Ohio) from them. And the 7-point Qpac lead is consistent with just about everyone else, who tend to see this race in the 6-to-8 point range for Toomey. (There’s a similar 7-point shift in the Governor’s race, which was already pretty solidly in Tom Corbett’s hands.)

Opinion Research for CNN/Time (9/17-21, likely voters, no trendlines):

Joe Sestak (D): 44

Pat Toomey (R): 49

Undecided: 3

Dan Onorato (D): 44

Tom Corbett (R): 52

Undecided: 2

(MoE: 3.5%)

There’s also been a truckload of other pollsters releasing Keystone State results, perhaps most notably today from CNN/Time. These are LV numbers; as with last week’s wave, they also offer RVs, and they show that a similar-sized enthusiasm gap as the Quinnipiac polls (among RVs, the Sestak/Toomey race is tied 45-45, while Corbett leads 50-45 in the governor’s race — considering those are similar to Quinnipiac’s July RV numbers, this is a verrrry static race).

Critical Insights for the Times-Leader (9/14-16, likely voters, no trendlines):

Joe Sestak (D): 36

Pat Toomey (R): 40

Undecided: 24

Dan Onorato (D): 37

Tom Corbett (R): 38

Undecided: 25

(MoE: 4%)

MuniciPoll for PoliticsPA (9/15-16, likely voters, no trendlines):

Joe Sestak (D): 36

Pat Toomey (R): 45

Undecided: 19

(MoE: 3.2%)

Finally, two other polls from first-time pollsters round out the pile, with MuniciPoll giving a slightly more pessimistic look and Critical Insights giving probably the best-looking numbers we’ve seen in either race in a while, including a probably-too-good-to-be true 1-point lead for Tom Corbett in the gubernatorial race.

Any wonder what’s behind the GOP dominance here? Well, aside from the obvious stuff about the nature of the year, Pennsylvania’s swing state status and clockwork 8-year gubernatorial flips, and so on, there’s also the money story. In the Senate race, it’s been all Toomey so far, with 72% of the ads running in the state’s two biggest markets (Philadelphia and Pittsburgh) being GOP spots so far. Sestak’s only starting to engage the Philly market this week, so we’ll see if his powder-saving/late-salvo strategy is anywhere near as effective in the general as it was in the primary. And in the somewhat-sleepier and less ad-saturated gubernatorial race, Tom Corbett is winning the money battle, holding $7.7 CoH in his report last week compared with $3.4 million for Dan Onorato.

• AK-Sen: If anything makes clear the depth of the NRSC’s change of allegiance from Lisa Murkowski to Joe Miller, check out the list of five different NRSC-organized, Senator-filled fundraisers that’ll be held on Miller’s behalf next week. Murkowski, meanwhile, is shrugging off the loss of her leadership post (which went to John Barrasso) and ranking committee position, seeming more focused on the mechanics of her write-in bid. She’s going to have to do a little better than this, though (although Alaska doesn’t require precise spelling of write-ins): the original version of the ad telling people about her write-in bid directed people to a URL that misspelled her name (LisaMurkwski.com). (I wonder if some cybersquatter has already grabbed that URL by now?)

• AR-Sen: Ipsos, on behalf of Reuters, is out with a look at Arkansas, a Senate race that’s hardly worth looking at anymore. Nevertheless, they show a closer race than anybody else has lately: Blanche Lincoln trails John Boozman by “only” 14, a 53-39 gap among LVs. Lincoln’s favorables seem to be improving a bit too, but time’s running out for a full-fledged comeback.

• CO-Sen: Here’s a tantalizing tidbit, although it doesn’t have any bearing on the current race, just likely to exacerbate the seemingly-escalating war between the NRSC and Jim DeMint. It turns out the NRSC gave the maximum $42K to Jane Norton, just four days before the GOP primary. Not much of a vote of confidence in Ken Buck, is it?

• NH-Sen: Unfortunately, where many Republican primaries have dissolved into acrimony afterwards, we’re seeing lots of unity in New Hampshire. Ovide Lamontagne is helping to raise funds for narrow victor Kelly Ayotte at a DC fundraiser scheduled for Sep. 27.

• WA-Sen: Considering the play this has gotten in the local press, this small comment on a parochial issue looks to be a major faceplant for Dino Rossi… he dared depart from the party line on the mighty Boeing. He suggested that Boeing should get no favorable treatment from the Pentagon in its competition with Airbus (whose efforts are subsidized by European governments) over who gets to build the next-generation Air Force tanker. (To put that in context, that would be like a candidate going to Iowa and dissing ethanol, or going to West Virginia and dissing coal.) Boeing had already explicitly endorsed Patty Murray, but now she has a nuclear-grade weapon to use against Rossi in the Boeing-dependent swingy suburbs.

And here’s a hat tip to Horsesass’s Goldy, who spots some interesting details in the fine print of that Elway Poll from last week. People were surprised when that CNN/Time poll found a reverse enthusiasm gap for the Dems in Washington (with Murray faring better among LVs than RVs), but Elway actually shows something similar. The 50-41 topline was LVs, but pushed leaners. Include only the “definite voters” and that pushes up to a 13-pt lead for Murray (43-30). I don’t have one good explanation for this phenomenon, but I’d guess it’s a combination of a) Dems being more diehard liberal in Washington and less swingy and/or sporadic than in other states, b) the economy being somewhat better in Washington than many other places, and c) teabagger ennui after Clint Didier lost the primary to establishment leftover Dino Rossi.

• NM-Gov: We’ve got dueling banjos internals in the Land of Enchantment. Susana Martinez whipped it out first, rolling out a POS poll from last week with a 50-40 lead for her. Not to be outdone, Diane Denish pulled out her own poll from GQR from the same timeframe, showing that Martinez is leading “only” 49-44. Um… take that?

• NY-Gov: Rick Lazio is hedging on what exactly he’s going to do with his spot on the Conservative Party line, sounding like he wants to wait and see how Carl Paladino fares before making up his mind. Meanwhile, Andrew Cuomo got a pretty significant endorsement, from NYC mayor Michael Bloomberg, which may sway a few moderate indies but is probably mostly helpful from a GOTV organizational standpoint within the city. Meanwhile, you might have also heard something about a poll of this race today? I’ve heard a few rumblings. Anyway, we’re deferring discussion of today’s Quinnipiac poll until the Siena and SurveyUSA polls, due tomorrow, also come out, offering us a better yardstick.

• RI-Gov, RI-01: Quest for WJAR-TV (9/15-17, likely voters, no trendlines):

Frank Caprio (D): 36

John Robitaille (R): 13

Lincoln Chafee (I): 24

Ken Block (M): 2

Undecided: 25

David Cicilline (D): 49

John Loughlin (R): 26

Undecided: 25

(MoE: ±4.7%)

This is probably the biggest lead we’ve seen for Frank Caprio in the Governor’s race, and also the first post-primary poll of the race in the 1st, which looks to be an easy race for Providence mayor David Cicilline despite being an open seat in a dangerous year. The poll also finds the Dems easily winning the LG, AG, SoS, and RI-02 races.

• TN-Gov: Crawford Johnson and Northcott for WSMV-TV (registered voters, trendlines from early July):

Mike McWherter (D): 24 (34)

Bill Haslam (R): 55 (60)

Undecided: 19 (6)

(MoE: ±4%)

I’m not going out on a limb by saying we can expect Bill Haslam to win the Tennessee governor’s race. The only odd thing here is that this is WSMV’s second poll of the race, and the number of undecideds has shot up dramatically since July (of course, it’s a mystery how there were so few back then).

• FL-22: Anzalone-Liszt for Ron Klein (9/14-16, likely voters, no trendlines):

Ron Klein (D): 48

Allen West (R): 40

(MoE: ±4.4%)

While this isn’t an awe-inspiring lead for Klein in his own internal, it’s a good topline and there are some interesting numbers in the fine print. Most notably, West’s unfavorables have tripled (to 26%) since May as people have started paying attention.

• MA-04: OMG, even Barney Frank’s in trouble! (In case you couldn’t tell, I was being sarcastic.) (Or was I?) Anyway, the Republican candidate running against Frank, Sean Bielat, is out with a poll from GOP pollster On Message giving Frank a 48-38 lead over Bielat. I suppose a ceiling of 38% is plausible for a no-name GOPer in this part of Massachusetts, which went 63% for Obama but includes a lot of exurbs and went narrowly for Scott Brown in the special election, but I’m unclear on how he gets much further than that.

• PA-03: Franklin & Marshall (9/14-19, registered voters, no trendlines):

Kathy Dahlkemper (D-inc): 38

Mike Kelly (R): 44

(MoE: ±4.8%)

This seems to be the first truly independent poll of this race, although we’ve seen various internals and Republican third-party polls all showing Dahlkemper in trouble, though not always losing. Franklin & Marshall opts for the “losing” side, although it’s slightly less severe among RVs (42-38).

• VA-05: Benenson Strategy Group for Tom Perriello (9/14-16, likely voters, no trendlines):

Tom Perriello (D): 44

Rob Hurt (R): 46

Jeff Clark (I): 4

Undecided: 5

(MoE: ±4.9%)

Not much difference here than that DCCC poll by Global Strategy Group a few weeks ago that also saw Perriello down by 2. Again, not the most appetizing numbers for rolling out when it’s your own internal, but at least it’s some pushback against those SurveyUSA numbers.

• WA-09: Benenson Strategy Group for Adam Smith (9/18-20, likely voters, no trendlines):

Adam Smith (D): 54

Dick Muri (R): 35

Undecided: 19

(MoE: ±4.9%)

Hmmm, speaking of pushback against SurveyUSA numbers, here’s an internal from the Adam Smith camp (who were seen as being in a close race in a public poll from over the weekend). Now these are the kind of internal poll numbers we like to see… although the very fact that Adam Smith should have to be releasing internal polls in the first place is, well, a sign of the times.

• DCCC: Here’s some interesting money shuffling from the DCCC, which might portend an increased focus on GOTV. A CQ piece detailing some miscellany from their report this month included a number of transfers from the DCCC to state Democratic party committees. That includes $196K to Ohio, $142K to Arizona, and $132K to Arizona.

• American Crossroads: Wasn’t the “Crossroads” myth about selling your soul to the devil? At any rate, Politico is out with a nauseating story that’s a stark counterpoint to the normal old committee numbers that we released this morning: while the Dems have advantages at the committee level, they’re getting crushed in outside TV spending by third-party groups, to the tune of $23.6 million for GOP ads to $4.8 million for Dem ads. (Of course, some of that is money that in previous cycles would have gone to the RNC, which is way out of whack (or “wack,” as Michael Steele might say) and unable to do much with its usual task of helping state committees… making the GOP more reliant than ever on hoping that their air saturation can overcome disadvantages in the ground game.)

The largest of these groups, of course, is American Crossroads, which is out with six new attack ads in different Senate races: Illinois ($482K), Kentucky ($235K), Nevada ($320K), New Hampshire ($643K), Ohio ($260K), and Pennsylvania ($226K). I know the teabaggers like to think that when the 2010 election is written in the history books, the story will be about some sort of populist uprising, but more likely, their useful idiocy will be long forgotten and the story will be about the uprising of a dozen or so billionaires, leveraging tens of millions on ads in order to save themselves hundreds of billions in taxes.

• SSP TV:

• CT-Sen: The state Democratic party goes after Linda McMahon, looking at job cuts she oversaw at WWE

• MO-Sen: The DSCC wades back into Missouri, looking at how Roy Blunt keeps his corruption all in the family

• MD-Gov: A DGA-allied group hits Bob Ehrlich for being in the pocket of utilities during and after his gubernatorial term

• IL-10: Dan Seals goes negative against Bob Dold!, hitting him on social security and abortion rights

• IL-14: Nancy Pelosi’s coming for you! Booogetyboogetyboogety! (or so says Randy Hultgren’s second ad)

• NC-02: Renee Elmers found the money to run an ad? Well, it is cable only… Anyway, it’s about the Burlington Coat Factory mosque, despite that Bob Etheridge says he doesn’t support it

• PA-11: Paul Kanjorski again goes negative on Lou Barletta on the bread and butter stuff, hitting for him opposition to a State Department security forces training center for the district

• PA-17: Even Tim Holden’s hitting the airwaves with two different ads, one that’s a soft bio spot for himself, and then an attack on his opponent’s role in legislative pay raises

• WA-08: Suzan DelBene’s second ad is against negative against Dave Reichert, especially for opposing financial reform

• Rasmussen:

• AK-Gov: Ethan Berkowitz (D) 34%, Sean Parnell (R-inc) 54%

• CA-Gov: Jerry Brown (D) 47%, Meg Whitman (R) 46%

• IL-Sen: Alexi Giannoulias (D) 41%, Mark Kirk (R) 44%, LeAlan Jones (G) 4%

• ME-Gov: Libby Mitchell (D) 27%, Paul LePage (R) 45%, Eliot Cutler (I) 14%

• MI-Gov: Virg Bernero (D) 38%, Rick Snyder (R) 51%

• NY-Sen: Charles Schumer (D-inc) 58%, Jay Townsend (R) 36%