Author: Crisitunity

Swing State Project is rolling out another round of updates to our House, Senate and Gubernatorial race ratings charts. This may seem like an alarming large number to do all at once, especially since almost all the changes are favorable to Republicans, but that’s not in response to any particular event or series of events. Mostly, we’re just playing catchup after having been a little slow in performing a global update since late July, and obviously the general environment deteriorated over August for Dems (although we might have seen a slight uptick in their fortunes, at least in terms of generic ballot tests and mindless Beltway CW, in the last week).

• AZ-Sen: Races to Watch to Safe R
• CT-Sen: Likely D to Lean D
• IN-Sen: Lean R to Likely R
• MO-Sen: Tossup to Lean R
• OH-Sen: Tossup to Lean R
• PA-Sen: Tossup to Lean R

• AZ-Gov: Tossup to Lean R
• CO-Gov: Lean D to Likely D
• CT-Gov: Tossup to Lean D
• IL-Gov: Tossup to Lean R
• ME-Gov: Tossup to Lean R
• NH-Gov: Safe D to Likely D
• NM-Gov: Tossup to Lean R
• NV-Gov: Lean R to Likely R
• WI-Gov: Tossup to Lean R

• AR-02: Lean R to Likely R
• AZ-01: Lean D to Tossup
• AZ-05: Lean D to Tossup
• CA-47: Likely D to Lean D
• CO-03: Likely D to Tossup
• CO-07: Likely D to Lean D
• CT-05: Likely D to Lean D
• FL-02: Lean D to Tossup
• IA-01: Safe D to Likely D
• IL-11: Lean D to Tossup
• IL-14: Lean D to Tossup
• IL-17: Likely D to Lean D
• KY-03: Likely D to Lean D
• LA-02: Likely D to Lean D
• ME-01: Safe D to Likely D
• ME-02: Safe D to Likely D
• MI-07: Lean D to Tossup
• MI-09: Likely D to Lean D
• NY-29: Lean R to Likely R
• OR-05: Likely D to Lean D
• PA-03: Lean D to Tossup
• PA-07: Tossup to Lean R
• PA-08: Lean D to Tossup
• SC-05: Lean D to Tossup
• WA-02: Likely D to Tossup
• WA-03: Tossup to Lean R

39 of these changes favor Republicans; 2 races have moved in the Democratic direction.

• AK-Sen: Joe Miller finally fessed up to what we told you about last week (concerning farmland he owned in Alaska): he’s a hypocrite on the farm subsidy issue, having gladly accepted them while railing against them. This time, it’s about a different parcel of farmland in Kansas that he owned before moving to Alaska, receiving $7K in GOVERNMENT HANDOUTS FOR LAZY UNPRODUCTIVE PEOPLE WHO’VE MADE BAD LIFESTYLE CHOICES!!!1! between the years 1990 and 1997. And check out the excuse he offers: “This was back in the ’90s, the situation the country was in was far different than now.” (Uh huh… when some guy named Bill Clinton was running a surplus.)

• DE-Sen: Whoops. Prior to getting their establishment asses handed them to them on the end of a mob-wielded pitchfork, the Delaware state GOP filed a FEC complaint against Christine O’Donnell for illegal campaign coordination with and excessive contributions from the Tea Party Express. Now that they’re saddled with her as the nominee, the FEC is telling them no-backsies, and that they can’t withdraw the complaint… the complaint against their own nominee.

• NC-Sen: And now it’s Richard Burr’s turn in the hypocrisy dunk tank. An announcement of 240 new jobs and a $130 million expansion at Cree Inc. in Durham is drawing four major Democrats and Richard Burr to celebrate. Burr, unlike the Democrats, though, did not support the stimulus package that, y’know, was behind that expansion.

• NV-Sen: John Ensign may not even survive till the general election in 2012, if Jon Ralston’s tweet is to be believed. John Chachas, the little-known self-funder who barely made a ripple in the overcrowded 2010 GOP Senate field but who seems likely to do better in a one-on-one, is saying he may run against Ensign in two years.

• GA-Gov, GA-Sen: Mason-Dixon for Georgia Newspaper Partnership:

Roy Barnes (D): 41

Nathan Deal (R): 45

Michael Thurmond (D): 33

Johnny Isakson (R-inc): 52

(MoE: ±4%)

While this isn’t as nice as the InsiderAdvantage poll showing the race tied in the wake of disclosures about Nathan Deal’s financial disarray, Mason-Dixon does show a close race. This appears to be their first poll of the Barnes/Deal matchup, so there’s no sense of whether things have tightened.

• RI-Gov: Faced with the choice between a labor-friendly indie candidate and a Democrat whom they endorsed for state Treasurer four years ago, the AFL-CIO finally decided to punt, and endorse neither Lincoln Chafee nor Frank Caprio, remaining neutral. Recall that Chafee got SEIU and nurses’ union backing yesterday.

• AZ-05: There’s a new internal out in the rematch in Arizona’s 5th that founds its way across someone’s desk at the Hill. It’s from Democratic pollster Harstad Strategic Research and is apparently on behalf of the Harry Mitchell campaign, giving Mitchell a narrow lead over David Schweikert, 45-44 with 6 to the Libertarian candidate. That’s kind of pushing the limits on when it’s a good idea to release an internal, but with Schweikert having claimed an 8-point lead in his own internal and the DCCC’s ambiguous pull-out announcement about this district triggering some alarms, Mitchell seemed to need to show he’s still right in the thick of things.

UPDATE: The Mitchell campaign writes in to clarify that this isn’t their internal poll (which the Hill had originally reported, then apparently deleted), but rather is on behalf of Project New West. Mitchell’s up 51-29 among independents, which helps him prevail even in a sample that’s slightly GOP-skewed (46% GOP, 30% Dem) You can see the polling memo here.

• LA-02: Anzalone-Liszt for Cedric Richmond (9/12-15, likely voters, no trendlines):

Cedric Richmond (D): 45

Joe Cao (R): 35

(MoE: ±4.4%)

Here’s the antidote to that bizarre Joe Cao internal from a few months back, that gave him a 25-point lead over Cedric Richmond. Even this Richmond internal, which has him up by 10, indicates that this isn’t going to be a total cakewalk for the Dems, though; with only 35%, Cao is still way overperforming the GOP baseline in this district that went for Barack Obama with 75% of the vote in 2008.  

• MN-01: Tim Walz picked up an endorsement from an unexpected corner yesterday. He got the backing of former Republican Senator David Durenberger, who support Walz’s stance on “uniting people” but also his support for health care reform. (Durenberger is also supporting IP candidate Tom Horner in the governor’s race.)

• PA-15: Muhlenberg College for the Allentown Morning Call (9-11/16, likely voters, 4/19-27 in parentheses):

John Callahan (D): 38 (33)

Charlie Dent (R-inc): 49 (45)

Jake Towne (I): 3 (?)

Undecided: 10 (22)

(MoE: ±5%)

John Callahan’s one of the best Dem challengers to a GOP incumbent this cycle, but he’s got a lot of work ahead of him to make up that last 12 points against Charlie Dent.

• NRSC: Here’s an interesting Roll Call dispatch from the front lines in the war between the NRSC and the Army of One known as Jim DeMint. DeMint is apparently dissatisfied with current NRSC allocations, and is moving money from his own personal stash to bolster Sharron Angle in Nevada ($156K) and Ken Buck in Colorado ($250K). The NRSC has reserved $3.2 million for Buck in TV time, more than any other candidate, so his concerns about Colorado may be misplaced.

• SSP TV:

• IL-Sen: The DSCC hits Mark Kirk for voting against unemployment extensions and minimum wage raises

• MO-Sen: Roy Blunt disappears down the meta rabbithole, with an attack ad about Robin Carnahan’s attack ads

• NV-Sen: Can we just have Harry Reid handle the advertising for all our candidates? He turns up the heat even higher on Sharron Angle, saying she wants to privatize the VA and “end our promise to our veterans”

• IA-Gov: Two separate ads for Chet Culver, one featuring endorsements from his immediate family members, the other making the case that “hey, Iowa’s not that bad off compared to all those other states”

• NM-Gov: Susana Martinez’s ad is a positive bio spot recounting her early prosecuting days

• SC-Gov: Vince Sheheen’s TV ad features a litany of reasons to be suspicious of Nikki Haley, recited by various average folks

• OH-16: The DCCC’s newest spot is a tax-time two-fer, hitting Jim Renacci on supporting the 23% “fair tax” and on his own pile of back taxes owed

• OR-05: Kurt Schrader’s newest is a testimonial from a thankful veteran

• TN-08: Roy Herron’s newest ad hits Stephen Fincher mostly on his various campaign finance discrepancies of misfilings and mysterious loans

• WI-07: Julie Lassa’s newest ad features criticism from a Sean Duffy underling from the DA’s office in Ashland County, focusing on his neglect of that stepping-stone job

• Rasmussen:

• AK-Sen: Scott McAdams (D) 25%, Joe Miller (R) 42%, Lisa Murkowski (W-I-inc) 27%

• CA-Sen: Barbara Boxer (D-inc) 47%, Carly Fiorina (R) 43%

• NY-Sen-B: Kirsten Gillibrand (D-inc) 49%, Joe DioGuardi (R) 39%

• RI-Gov: Frank Caprio (D) 30%, John Robitaille (R) 23%, Lincoln Chafee (I) 33%

• Rasmussen (appearing as Fox/Pulse):

• CA-Gov: Jerry Brown (D) 45%, Meg Whitman (R) 45%

• CA-Sen: Barbara Boxer (D-inc) 47%, Carly Fiorina (R) 46%

• DE-Sen: Chris Coons (D) 54%, Christine O’Donnell (R) 39%

• NV-Sen: Harry Reid (D-inc) 45%, Sharron Angle (R) 46%

• OH-Gov: Ted Strickland (D-inc) 41%, John Kasich (R) 47%

• OH-Sen: Lee Fisher (D) 36%, Rob Portman (R) 49%

• PA-Gov: Dan Onorato (D) 39%, Tom Corbett (R) 49%

• PA-Sen: Joe Sestak (D) 40%, Pat Toomey (R) 48%

SurveyUSA for KING-TV (9/14-16, likely voters, no trendlines):

Adam Smith (D-inc): 49

Dick Muri (R): 46

Undecided: 5

(MoE: ±4.1%)

Now here’s a race that wasn’t on anybody’s mind (except for Real Clear Politics, who consider every race with a sentient Republican to be at least “Likely Dem”): Washington’s 9th district, a D+5 narrow swath of middle-class suburbs reaching from SeaTac Airport in the north to Fort Lewis in the south. Adam Smith has held this uneventfully since 1996, when he picked it up from Randy Tate, who got washed in with the tide in ’94 and washed out with the next normal election.

Nevertheless, I’m not altogether surprised here. The GOP didn’t just run their usual Some Dude here; they dug up a Pierce County Councilor (that’s the state’s second-largest county, where Tacoma is) in the form of Dick Muri. The only reason you haven’t heard anything about this race nationally is because a) it’s D+5, at the outer edge of what’s feasible for a pickup, and b) Muri has raised near-bupkus (currently sitting on $96K in cash, although he may now be getting more of a second look). And then in the Top 2 primary, the cumulative Dem/Green vs. GOP vote, a good predictor of where the general election will wind up, was about 55-45 (with the GOP vote being deeply split between establishmentarian Muri and a teabagger). So, take that 10-point spread that the primary would predict, throw in the 6-or-7 point rightward skew that we’ve been seeing from SurveyUSA versus, well, everybody else in their polling of west coast states (WA-Sen, CA-Sen… need I go on?), and… voila! You have a 3-point Smith lead.

As much as it’s reasonable to expect that Smith will hold on in the high-single-digits (especially since he’s right below the 50% mark), this race should not be ignored, and we’re moving it to “Likely Democratic” (from Safe Democratic).

Public Policy Polling (9/18-19, likely voters, 5/25-27 in parentheses):

Virg Bernero (D): 31 (28)

Rick Snyder (R): 52 (44)

Undecided: 16 (28)

(MoE: ±4.4%)

PPP’s poll of the Michigan gubernatorial race is a pretty clear indicator this one has moved out of play for the Democrats, Virg Bernero’s best efforts notwithstanding. A look at all polling shows that over the month of August, after the primary, this gradually moved from a lead for Republican Rick Snyder in the mid-teens, up to the low 20s.

Not only is there the problem of Bernero being weighed down by Jennifer Granholm’s unpopularity (Bernero’s at 28/43), but as PPP’s Tom Jensen points out, this is one GOP primary where they actually managed to shepherd through their most electable candidate (a Bernero/Mike Cox race would have been interesting, but we won’t get to find out). Snyder has 43/28 faves, including an amazing 53/17 among independents. With this race probably having already landed on the wrong end of DGA triage decisions, we’re moving this race to Likely Republican (from Lean Republican).

Suffolk (9/14-16, registered voters, 5/20-23 in parentheses):

Deval Patrick (D-inc): 41 (42)

Charlie Baker (R): 34 (29)

Tim Cahill (I): 14 (14)

Jill Stein (G): 4 (8)

Undecided: 6 (7)

(MoE: ±4.4%)

Suffolk is one pollster that I trust to get Massachusetts right (other states, not so much, but recall that they nailed the MA-Sen special election’s 5-pt margin and even some individual bellwether towns). As in previous polls, they find Deval Patrick in fairly durable shape against Charlie Baker, but that’s mostly because of an assist from Tim Cahill, an ex-Dem who’s a wedge right through the anti-Patrick vote. The 7-point margin is a little bigger than the average of all polling (although that average is pretty heavily Rasmussen-based).

Two words of caution, though: one is that among voters who actually know both candidates (16% of voters still haven’t heard of Baker), Baker leads 39-38. The other is that this is a registered voter model, which may be worth a few points to Patrick. However, here’s a hypothesis I have: there’s probably less enthusiasm gap here than in a lot of other states. Recent polling has shown much less of an enthusiasm gap in solidly blue states (California, Washington) and red states (Kentucky, Texas, Louisiana) than in the swingiest of states (Wisconsin, Ohio, Pennsylvania). Guess which category Massachusetts falls in?

Public Policy Polling (9/14-16, likely voters, 7/23-25 in parentheses):

Jerry Brown (D): 47 (46)

Meg Whitman (R): 42 (40)

Undecided: 12 (14)

(MoE: ±3.8%)

$118 million can certainly get you heard (well past the saturation point, apparently), but it can’t erase the fundamental truth that California is a very blue state. As seen in PPP’s Senate poll released yesterday, there isn’t as much enthusiasm gap at work in California as in other states, leaving us with a likely voter sample that went for Obama by a 58-36 margin in 2008. While Whitman’s massive self-funded budget and her vaguely moderate appeal keep her competitive, the final story may simply be that there just aren’t enough Republicans (and persuable indies) to push her over the top.

People are feeling pretty ‘meh’ about Jerry Brown, with 41/43 favorables, but Whitman winds up in much worse shape at 30/50. While PPP doesn’t specifically ask whether Whitman’s ads have made people more or less likely to vote for her, they do find that people, by a 52-33 margin, think there should be a legal limit on how much a person can donate to his or her own campaign (gee, you think they’re thinking of Meg Whitman and her nonstop ads when they answer this question?). Before anybody starts to do a premature victory dance, though, bear in mind that more pollsters than not, in the last month, have given Whitman a lead (Although you know who we haven’t heard from lately? The Field Poll.). Given that this poll clocks in with a pretty optimistic 46% composition of self-described Dems, we’re looking at a neck-and-neck race here between wise tortoise and fabulously wealthy hare.

Public Policy Polling for Daily Kos (9/18-19, likely voters, in parentheses):

Russ Feingold (D-inc): 41 (45)

Ron Johnson (R): 52 (43)

Undecided: 7 (12)

Tom Barrett (D): 41 (38)

Scott Walker (R): 50 (45)

Undecided: 8 (17)

(MoE: ±3.8%)

This poll has already been so thoroughly teased that there’s not much shock value left to it. Also, it shouldn’t be a surprise that PPP finds Ron Johnson with a lead over Russ Feingold, considering that the last five Rasmussen polls have done so (with no one else to give an alternative read in the last couple months). But a double-digit lead is definitely an attention-getter. The question seems to be whether the race has really moved in Johnson’s direction lately (which Rasmussen also would suggest) or if PPP caught a bad bounce on this one… either way, it’s clear Feingold is in a bad position and that complicates the Senate picture (although Wisconsin always seemed to me to be the weakest of the three so-called “firewalls” — and now it’s seeming weaker than Colorado, Illinois, or Nevada, considered by the CW to be on the wrong side of the firewall).

There’s a whole lotta enthusiasm gap going on with PPP’s likely voter screen here, maybe more so than any poll we’ve seen this cycle, with Barack Obama’s approval down to 41/54 (compared with 2008 results, where he won 56-42). Feingold’s approval is down to 40/53, which contrasts with Johnson’s 46/34 faves. Based on that difference, it seems like even if Feingold weren’t running into a stiff headwind from the national climate this would still be a very close race, as Feingold has tended to run close races in the past and has been seemingly searching in vain for an ad strategy that really defines the hard-to-pin-down, generic-wealthy-businessman Johnson.

While we think this particular poll overstates Feingold’s likely doom, there’s no doubt that this race is properly considered a Tossup (which we’re moving from Lean Democratic).

UPDATE: Talking Points Memo today makes reference to Democratic internal polling just prior to last week’s primary (sorry, no link to an actual polling memo, which would certainly be helpful) that had Feingold leading 48-41 among “all voters” and 47-43 among “those definite to vote.”

Public Policy Polling (9/18-19, likely voters, no trendlines):

Joe Manchin (D): 43

John Raese (R): 46

Undecided: 10

(MoE: ±2.6%)

If this year’s quest to hold control of the Senate is starting to feel like a giant game of whack-a-mole to you, you’re not alone. We’ve bashed Mike Castle and Dino Rossi down into their holes? Ooops, up pop Ron Johnson… and now John Raese? Well, yes, at least according to PPP, who see mondo-sized enthusiasm gaps at work in West Virginia, enough to give a small lead to Raese despite Joe Manchin’s popularity as governor. (Bear in mind that Rasmussen has been pretty consistent in seeing a high-single-digit race in favor of Manchin here, including a 7-point lead in a poll taken in the same timeframe, so PPP’s seeing something even they aren’t.)

Manchin’s approvals are 59/32, which makes him one of the most popular governors in the country that PPP has found. The problem here seems to be the association with the national party in a federal-level race: Barack Obama’s approvals are 30/64, and this likely voter sample broke for McCain in 2008 by a 58-35 margin (instead of the 13-percent spread that actually happened in 2008). PPP estimates that if the sample mirrored 2008 composition, Manchin would be up 50-44. There’s one other bit in the fine print that gives Manchin a possible route to take: embrace the Robert Byrd legacy. Byrd’s posthumous approvals are 68/23, and by a 52-33 margin, voters want someone to “carry on Byrd’s legacy” (whatever that means to them).

UPDATE: Swing State Project is moving this race to “Lean Democratic” (from Likely Democratic).

• AR-Sen: Move along, nothing to see here. Talk Business, via Hendrix College, is out with another poll of the Arkansas Senate race. They find John Boozman leading Blanche Lincoln 56-29, with 5 for indie Trevor Drown. (The previous Talk Business poll, taken by Zata|3, had it at 57-32.)

• DE-Sen: Trying to put his money where his mouth is, Jim DeMint, via his Senate Conservatives Funds, is going on the air with a new cable TV spot on behalf of Christine O’Donnell. The buy is for at least $250K. As I expected, it makes very obvious hay out of Harry Reid’s dumb reference to Chris Coons as his “pet.”

• FL-Sen: This is a long read, but worth checking out, not just from a partisan standpoint but also as insight into the constant revolving door between politics, big law, academia, and the nebulous world of “consulting.” It’s a thorough going-over of Marco Rubio’s finances over the years, looking at some of the already-known stuff (his foreclosure problems and overuse of state party credit cards) but also at the connections that have gradually allowed him to enrich himself.

• KS-Sen, KS-Gov: SurveyUSA finds… brace yourselves… Republicans in the lead in Kansas! The Senate race appears to be out in no-man’s land, with Jerry Moran leading Lisa Johnston 66-24. The Governor’s race, however, remains moderately interesting, with Sam Brownback up over Tom Holland 59-32. Still not a good result, but that’s a 15-point swing in Holland’s favor from last time, as he now leads among self-described moderates.

• KY-Sen: This poll from last week is probably interesting enough for the front page… but it’s getting more than a little stale, after our having repeatedly fumbled attempts to write it up, so we’re just dropping it off here (figuring many of you have already seen it on over at Daily Kos). PPP, on behalf of Big Orange, finds that Rand Paul leads Jack Conway 49-42. On the plus side, not much of an enthusiasm gap here, thanks to Paul’s polarizing nature; it’s just a solidly red state.

• LA-Sen: Two different polls in Louisiana tell different stories. Dem pollster Bennett Petts & Normington, on behalf of the DSCC, sees a 10-point race, with David Vitter leading Charlie Melancon 48-38. On the other hand, Republican pollster Magellan sees it as an 18-point race: 52-34. The truth, as is often said, probably lies somewhere in between.

• UT-Sen: The Senate half of the Dan Jones poll (for the Deseret News and KSL-TV) finally showed up. In what could be called “not a surprise,” the Republican is winning in Utah. Mike Lee (who turfed out Bob Bennett at the state convention) is easily beating Sam Granato, 52-25.

• WA-Sen: Here’s a nice story about hypocrisy… or hypoc-Rossi, in this case. Dino Rossi made a campaign stop at a Whidbey Island shipyard last week, one that’s nearly doubled its workforce from 130 to 210. Turns out, though, that the shipyard received $841K in stimulus funds, and the yard’s owner says the expansion is a direct result of the stimulus. (Interestingly, Rossi, without any guidance from Admiral Ackbar, may have sailed right into A TRAP: he showed up at the invitation of the yard’s owner, who has donated to Patty Murray in the past.)

• WI-Sen: If that Rossi hypocrisy story seems kind of small potatoes to you, well, don’t worry, because Ron Johnson seems to have, over the last few weeks, been exposed as the absolute master of hypocrisy about engorging yourself on the government teat all the while raging against it. While he can claim that building-a-rail-spur-to-Pacur thing was in the distant past, now it comes out that in March 2009, in his role as board member of Oshkosh’s Grand Opera House, he sought stimulus funds for renovations to the opera. Y’know, the stimulus bill that’s KILLING US ALL AND ALL FUTURE GENERATIONS!!1!  

• WV-Sen: Joe Manchin has had good relations with the state-level Chamber of Commerce, who’ve backed him in the past. They must have put in a good word for him with the national organization, as now the US Chamber of Commerce is endorsing him too, quite the rarity for a high-profile Dem.

• FL-Gov: Rick Scott’s previous defense against the massive Medicare fraud problems at his former healthcare company Columbia/HCA was that he’d have stopped them if only he’d known they were going on (which, considering his job was to run the company, should have demolished his credibility right there). But now it’s been revealed that his legal team was keeping him apprised, at least on the issue of trying to skirt a federal anti-kickback law.

• FL-22: They’ve had to call out the biggest fundraising gun of all for Ron Klein, seeing as how he’s up against a nutty opponent but one with a direct line into seemingly hundreds of thousands of teabaggers’ wallets in Allen West. Barack Obama will fundraise for Klein in the Miami area on Oct. 11 (at the home of former NBA star Alonzo Mourning).

• MS-01: The Tarrance Group is out with another Alan Nunnelee internal giving him a single-digit lead over Travis Childers in the 1st: this time, he’s up 48-41.

• NY-23: Would you believe the NY-23 count is still going on? Although it seems like Matt Doheny is the likely victor in the GOP primary, with a 582-vote lead right now, 1,969 military and overseas ballots remain to be counted. In Friday’s count, Doug Hoffman added 207 votes while Doheny added 177.

• American Crossroads: Rove, Inc., seems to be becoming the main conduit for billionaires looking to put their thumbs on the electoral scales but skeptical of the Michael Steele-helmed RNC: they raised $14.5 million in the last 30 days, almost doubling their year-to-date total.

• NRCC: The NRCC is out with a bonanza of IEs in 23 different districts (click the FEC link for specific numbers): PA-11, VA-09, PA-08, WI-07, NJ-03, PA-03, IL-14, MI-01, MI-07, PA-07, NC-07, IL-11, AL-02, AZ-01, CA-11, FL-02, KY-06, MS-01, TN-08, TX-23, VA-05, IN-02, and IL-10.

• SEIU: So, while the CoC is endorsing the Dem in West Virginia, the SEIU is endorsing the not-Dem in Rhode Island: they’ve thrown their backing behind indie Lincoln Chafee. (United Nurses and Allied Professionals will also endorse Chafee today, and the AFL-CIO is currently meeting about which way to go.) The SEIU is also out with a couple IEs of their own, spending $250K against Tim Walberg in MI-07 and $435K against deep-pocketed Jim Renacci in OH-16.

• SSP TV:

• CO-Sen: The DSCC is out with three different ads focusing on various aspects of Ken Buck’s nuttery, including the 17th Amendment and opposition to common birth control methods

• CT-Sen: Richard Blumenthal’s ad focuses on pushback against various Linda McMahon misrepresentations

• FL-22: Ron Klein calls out Allen West for his various veiled calls for armed uprising

• HI-01: Charles Djou’s first ad of the general is a positive spot listing accomplishments from his short time in office

• IL-10: Bob Dold! ties Dan Seals to Nancy Pelosi in a health care-themed ad

• PA-10: Here’s the winner of the day: Chris Carney quickly and effectively summarizes the nasty links between Tom Marino and Louis DeNaples

• PA-15: Charlie Dent goes after John Callahan’s bookkeeping as mayor of Bethlehem

• WI-08: Steve Kagen dips into the well of 50s-era public-domain stock footage to hit Reid Ribble on his calls for Social Security phaseout

• Rasmussen:

• MD-Gov: Martin O’Malley (D-inc) 50%, Bob Ehrlich 47%

• MD-Sen: Barbara Mikulski (D-inc) 54%, Eric Wargotz (R) 38%

• NH-Gov: John Lynch (D-inc) 48%, John Stephen (R) 46%

• NY-Gov: Andrew Cuomo (D) 54%, Carl Paladino (R) 38%, Rick Lazio (C) 0% because Rasmussen didn’t bother to include him

• WI-Gov: Tom Barrett (D) 43%, Scott Walker (R) 51%

• WV-Sen: Joe Manchin (D) 50%, John Raese (R) 43%

Public Policy Polling (9/14-16, likely voters, 7/23-25 in parentheses):

Barbara Boxer (D-inc): 50 (49)

Carly Fiorina (R): 42 (40)

Undecided: 8 (11)

(MoE: ±3.9%)

PPP finds Barbara Boxer in surprisingly good shape in the California Senate race, with almost no falloff from the previous poll in July. That July poll was of registered voters, so that’s enough for PPP to conclude that there’s no enthusiasm gap in California, or at least a very small one. (That’s similar to what CNN/Time found in WA-Sen last week, so maybe there’s something west coast-specific going on.) This yields a LV sample that broke 57-36 for Obama in 2008 and that still approves of him 53/42.

Boxer’s approvals are lower, 46/46, and she trails among independents 50-38. However, California is blue enough that there are adequate Democrats planning to vote, to cancel that out overall. It certainly can’t help matters for Carly Fiorina that her favorables are much worse, at 34/42… and with Boxer finally having gone negative on the airwaves regarding Fiorina’s tenure at HP, those faves may get worse before they get better.