Author: David Kowalski

All 15 House incumbents filed for re-election as did U.S. Senator Carl Levin.  Overall, Democrats filed for all 15 House districts; Republicans filed for 14 leaving John Conyers (MI-14) unopposed.  (In 2006, Democrats filed for 15 seats; Republicans for 13) Mark Schauer in MI-7 drew a primary opponent in 2006 nominee Sharon Renier.  Renier gave the best challenge to any Michigan incumbent finishing behind by less than 10,000 votes despite an underfunded campaign.  Edward Kriewall and Joseph Larkin will vie for the nomination in MI-11.  John Conyers has a primary opponent in Horace Sheffield.  Carolyn Cheeks Kilpatrick, the mother of embattled Detroit Mayor Kwame Kilpatrick drew two primary opponents: Martha Scott and Mary Waters.  In related news (pun intended), the Detroit City Council voted 5-4 to request that Michigan Governor Jennifer Granholm remove Kwame Kilpatrick from his job as Mayor.

Only one Republican primary will be required: in MI-1 to oppose Democratic incumbent Bart Stupak.  Tom Casperson, Linda Goldthorpe, and Don Hooper will vie for the slot.  Jack Hoogendyk, Jr. will oppose Carl Levin for the U,S, Senate seat.

The 110 member State House is up for election.  Democrats, who had a full legislative slate in 2006 did it again.  Republicans left 14 of the 110 seats unopposed.

Democratic candidates:

Senate: Carl Levin (Incumbent)

MI-1:   Bart Stupak (Incumbent)

MI-2:   Fred Johnson

MI-3:   Henry Sanchez

MI-4:   Andrew Concannon

MI-5:   Dale Kildee (Incumbent)

MI-6:   Don Cooney

MI-7:   Sharon Renier

       Mark Schauer

MI-8:   Robert Alexander

MI-9:   Gary Peters

MI-10:  Robert Denison

MI-11:  Edward Kriewall

       Joseph Larkin

MI-12:  Sander Levin (Incumbent)

MI-13:  Carolyn Kilpatrick Cheeks (Incumbent)

       Martha Scott

       Mary Waters

MI-14:  John Conyers (Incumbent)

       Horace Sheffield

MI-15:  John Dingell (Incumbent)

Dingell is the senior member of the House in terms of seniority (1955 IIRC).  Conyers has represented his district since being elected in 1962.

A lot of attention has been spent talking about the Memphis suburbs vs. the rest of the district without really laying things out using Census Bureau definitions and vote counts.  Well here’s how it comes out and the results are revealing.

The Census Bureau definition of the Memphis TN-MS-AR Metropolitan Statistical Area includes one county in Arkansas (Crittendon), four counties in Mississippi (DeSoto, Marshall, Tate, and Tunica) and three counties in Tennessee (Fayette, Shelby, and Tipton).  The vast majority of the area’s population is in Tennessee.  Only three of the Memphis area counties are in this district, Tunica is not.

“Memphis Area” counties voted much differently in the special election than the non-metropolitan counties in the district.  As a group, Davis won Metro counties by a little over 8,100 votes, 12,442 to 4,334.  DeSoto performed differently from the other Metro counties.  Davis won DeSoto by 10,173 to 2,069 bt won the other two counties combined by a whopping four votes, 2,269 to 2,265 (Marshal went Democratic, Tate went Republican).  Non-metro counties went to Travis Childers by 10,235 votes: 28,970 to 18,735.  Childers received 87% of his votes from the non-metro counties and 13% from the Metro Counties.  Davis, otoh, took just 60% of his votes from the non-Metro counties but 40% of his vote from the Memphis suburbs.  The labels of “Memphis” vs. “Country” are surprisingly accurate in this election.  

I split the country into six regions for political analysis purposes.  Three of the regions trend Democratic (Northeast, Pacific, Great Lakes) while three favor the GOP (Plains, Mountains, South).  For purposes of this discusssion, I track House seats (number D, number R, % D), Senate seats (number D, number R, % D), Governorships, and Presidential voting in 2004 as well as the number of Bush Dogs (per the list on Open Left) and the percentage of the region’s House Democrats who are Bush Dogs.

Not surprisingly, the more solidly Democratic a region is, the less likely it is to elect a Bush Dog Democrat.  Only two of the Northeast’s 68 House Democrats are Bush Dogs (2.9%) while 19 of 58 Southern Democrats are Bush Dogs (32.7%).

The Northeast is the most solidly Democratic region in the country and seems to be swinging even more blue.  The region has the most House Democrats (68), the greatest number of Democratic pickups in 2006 (12 House seats/ 11 GOP House seats lost), and every one of the 11 states plus the District of Columbia went for Kerry in 2004.  It even claims the greatest number of governorships (9) and the highest percentage of Democratic governors (81.8%).

Surprisingly, the Northeast still offers Democrats a lot of opportunities in 2008. The region ‘s 24 House Republicans continue to scatter.  Five have announced they will not run for re-election and a sixth, Wayne Gilchrest, has been defeated in a primary by a right wing Club For Growth candidate in Maryland.  

One can make a case against Vito Fossella (NY-13) who faces a voter registration deficit and has less cash than a possible general election opponent.  Scott Garrett (NJ-5) is an extremist who has been slowly sinking since first elected. Jim Gerlach not only comes from a tough district but from one of only five GOP-held districts in which George W. Bush got a lower percentage of the vote against John Kerry than against Al Gore.

Democrat Eric Massa has more money than Randy Kuhl in NY-29 and gave Kuhl a tight race as a virtual unknown in 2006.  Jim Himes has also outraised  Chris Shays who is looking at his third nail biter in a row with a lot less national bucks to go around.  Frank LoBiondo’s Jersey district (NJ-2) has a Democratic lean and several promising local candidates are available and might be enticed into the race.  Sam Bennet in PA-15 has a similarly friendly district and a relatively weak opponent.  Peter King is also defending a tough district as the last Republican from Long Island.  He, too, has no opponent as of yet but the rumors are less encouraging for local Democrats.

Add it all up, and the Republicans are looking at perhaps ten safe seats in this election in an 11 state region.  And any Democrat elected is likely to be a moderate to full out progressive.  The only two Bush Dog Democratys from the region represent rural districts tin Pennsylvania that are not culturally part of the region.

The Pacific states are almost as friendly on the Presidential level as the northeast with only Alaska’s three electoral votes going for George W. Bush.  That disguises a deep divide between the Democratic coastal regions and the Republican interiors. The region has the second highest percentage of Democratic House members (46 D, 24R, 65.7%) and the second lowest percentage of Bush Dog Democrats (2 of 46, 4.3%).

The contrast between the Northeast in 2006 and the Pacific was startling.  Democrats in the region had high hopes but managed to pick up just one seat (Jerry McNerney defeated Richard Pombo).  Democrats came close but came away empty in WA-8, CA-50, and CA-4.  This cycle’s top targets include WA-8, CA-4, and AK-At Large. Two of the region’s three Republican Senators, Oregon’s Gordon Smith and Alaska’s aging and heavily investigated Ted Stevens are also being challenged this go around.

Three or four California House seats ooze corruption and should have at least the potential to be competitive but, as of this time, I am not too optimistic about seats like CA-50 (Bilbray), CA-26 (Dreier), CA-46 (Rohrabacher), CA-45 (Mary Bono Mack), or CA-49 (Issa).

The Great Lakes is the least Democratic Democratic region.  In fact, heavy gerrymanders by the GOP in Ohio and Michigan gave the GOP the slight edge in the region’s House selegations until Bill Foster’s election to Denny Hastert’s old seat in the special election.

One of the really encouraging things in this region is that a great number of GOP seats stayed on the table after 2006.  Republicans may have held on but they retired in droves leaving huge openings in Illinois and Ohio.  Hastert’s seat has already flipped and the 38-38 Democratic edge will likely expand.  Democrats have a great shot in OH-15 and certainly a good chance in OH-1, OH-2 and OH-16.  At least two GOP Michigan seats (MI-7, MI-9) are being vigorously contested this cycle and seats like IL-18, IL-11, and IL-6 are up for grabs. Jim Ramstad’s old seat in Minnesota is possible and some people seem to think that Michelle Bachman’s seat (MN-6, I think) is also in play.

Last cycle, Democrats elected three new Bush Dog members from Indiana and two from Ohio.  That gave the region’s Democrats a purplisch cast (9 of 39 Democrats are Bush Dogs,23.1%).  Most of the contested seats this time around represent more urban or at least suburban areas and the results will probably be more reliable votes as well as more Democratic members.  Nine of the region’s 12 Senators are Democrats and Minnesots Republicn Norm Coleman is facing a tough challenge this cycle.

That leaves us with the three Republican leaning regions.  Hopes are highest for the Mountains.  Last cycle Democrats picked up two seats in Arizona and one in Colorado.  This year, hopes center more on New Mexico (two seats) and Rick Renzi’s seat in Arizona.  A three seat piclup would change the delegation from 11-17 in favor of the Republicans to a flat footed tie.  Both Nevada seats and the At Large seats in Wyoming and Montana plus ID-2 have also been mentioned.

Bill Clinton carried three of these states (Arizona, Nevada, and New Mexico in 1996 and five in 1992 when Ross Perot muddied up the waters (AZ, NM, NV, MT, CO).

Democrats have good chances for a Senate seat in New Mexico and one in Colorado.  That would even up the region’s Senate vote to 7-7.

The Plains is a rgion greatly helped by the oddities of US politics.  Iowa’s caucuses make the region important to a whole corps of Presidential wannabes in the US Senate.  Two Senate seats a piece certainly help the Dakotas.

With the notable exceptions of Iowa and Missouri most of the rest of the area produces either conservative Democrats or very conservative Republicans.

The South remains the Republicans key region although their electoral strength has probably peaked out.  Racially-based gerrymanders have created a series of sprawling majority minority districts that have been used to dilute Democratic strength in Congress.  No clearer example exists than the combo of VA-2 and VA-3.  Two more geographically compact districts would produce two pretty strong Democratic districts.  Instead, VA-2 skips many of the black areas in the VA. Beach-Norfolk Hampton roads area and Bobby Scott’s third district edges aroundto include most of Richmond a lot of rural areas and strategically picked, heavily Democratic areas of Hampton Roads.

Last cycle, Republicans lost two seats in Florida, one in North Carolina, one in Kentucky, and two in Texas.  Their current 82-58 edge in the South may well shrink again as Democrats guard several seats in Texas and two in Georgia but eye open seats in Louisiana and rematches in FL-13 and NC-8 as well as actual opportunities in places like Virginia and Kentucky.

Southern Democrats provide the margin that put Democrats back in the Speaker’s chair and the Senate Majority Leader role.  This remains a heavily Republican area for Presidential elections (Republicans won all 13 states for 166 electoral votes).  If Democrats can win three or four of these states they most certainly will win the Presidential election (Virginia, Florida, Arkansas, West Virginia are leading candidates) in part because any candidate who does that is likely to win Ohio as well.

As for the depressing numbers:

House (D 58,R 82, 41.4%)

Senate (D 7, R 19, 26.9%)

Governors (D 6, R 7, 46.2%)

Pr4sidential (13-0 on states, 166-0 on electoral votes)

Last cycle, Chris Bowers (then of MyDD) launched a campaign to encourage Democrats in safe or unopposed seats to kick in 30% of their cash on hand balance to the DCCC.  Chris dubbed the project “Use It or Lose It.”  Members were identified and contacted (often by constituents) who encouraged the largesse.

At this point in the cycle, filing deadlines have passed for roughly half the seats in the House and a limited NRCC budget means that many House Democrats will face pretty clear sailing in the fall general election.  One thing the fine series of state and district profiles by plf515 proves, is that Democratic seats are on the whole far safer than Republican seats.  A tool like PVI actually underestimates how many of the seats are safe because some southern and Plains representatives pile up nice margins in districts with a Republican or neutral lean in the Presidential contest.

Last night, I saw the pretty much final results of California filing posted on their Secretary of State’s site.  Democrats filed in 51 of the 53 districts (missing CA-19 and CA-22), while Republicans left seven seats unopposed.  One of those candidates, Laura Richardson, faces primary opposition and has a small cash balance so she was left out but the other six were added to my list of cash resources.  

My previous list in a comment relied on my memory and judgement.  I have used plf515’s data for 2006, 2004, 2004 Presidential, and PVI to flesh out the profiles.  Even using Bowers’ 30% formula, the balances would be enough to add a stunning $20 million to the DCCC war chest.  Last time around, Chris shook out over $3 million.  The difference is mostly in improved fund raising now that the Democrats in the House have reclaimed the majority.  So, with some comments, here is the updated list.

Bud Cramer, AL-5  $1,788,433 retiring

Artur Davis, AL-7 $804,308

Davis was unopposed in 2006 and racked up a 75-25 win in 2004.  Bush was held to 35% and the PVI is D+7 in ALabama.  

Marion Berry, AR-1 $494,054

Berry is unopposed this cycle.  Even when opposed he totaled 69% in 2006 and 67% in 2004.

Mike Ross, AR-4 $721,925

Ross is also unopposed.  He won 75% in 2006 and was unopposed in 2004.

Ed Pastor, AZ-4 $1,222,975

Ed racked up 73-24 and 70-26 wins in 2006 and 2004.  His Arizona district sports a PVI of D+14.

Mike Thompson, CA-1 $1,009,587

Thompson posted 66-29 and 67-28 wins in incumbent friendly California in 2006 and 2004.  His district is D+10.

Tom Lantos, CA-12 (deceased recently) $1,375,049

I don’t know what the legal situation is here.  Prior to 1994, the unspent balance of a congress person’s campaign fund was theirs upon retirement.  Now it can only be spent on another federal campaign (Senate, Presidential).  Tom was a Holocaust survivor and clearly other projects would merit funding as well.

Dennis Cardoza, CA-18 $415,825 Unopposed

Brad Sherman, CA-27 $1,630,301

Brad won by 69-31 in 2006 and 62-33 in 2004.  His district is D+13.

Howard Berman, CA-28 $748,436 Unopposed

Henry Waxman, CA-30 $738,512 Unopposed

Xavier Becerra, CA-31 $489,718 Unopposed

Hilda Solis, CA-32 $182,435 Unopposed

Grace Napolitano, CA-38 $274,991 Unopposed

Allen Boyd, FL-2 $1,029,813

The veteran conservative Democrat ran unopposed in 2006 and won 62-38 in 2004.  Although the district is R+2 that is a deceiving number here.

Robert Wexler, FL-19 $1,361,082

Wexler was unopposed in both 2006 and 2004.  Wouldn’t have mattered as his district is a cozy D+21.

Neil Abercrombie, HI-1 $1,044,182

69-31 in 2006 and 63-34 in 2004 in a D+7 district.

Jesse Jackson, Jr.  IL-2 $645,335

I believe he has no Republican opposition and the Illinois primary is over.  Not that that would matter.  Jess Jr. piled up 85-12 and 88-12 margins the last two cycles and his district is an incredible D+35.  No misprint.  D+35.

Rahm Emanuel IL-5 $1,598,801

Rahm won going away piling up 78-22 and 76-24 margins from his D+18 district.  Politics 1 lists no Republican opponent but either way does it matter?

Jerry Costello, IL-12 $1,814,895

Costello was unopposed in 2006 but had a 69-29 cakewalk in 2004.  His district’s PVI is just D+5 but that is not a meaningful number in his case.

Pete Viscloskey, IN-1 $1,538,630

Viscloskey posted a 68-32 victory in 2004 and expanded it to 70-27 in 2006.  His PVI is D+8 in beet red (at a presidential level) Indiana.

Julia Carson, IN-7

Carson is deceased but she left only $118,000 in the bank for her campaign fund.

Ben Chandler, KY-6 $1,024,862

Chandler piled up an 85-15 margin in 2006 against a Libertarian and a 59-40 edge in 2004.  With Ernie Fletcher at the top of the ballot in 2008, Kentucky Republicans have a lot to hid.  Yes, it’s R+7 but he is safe, safe, safe.

Richard Neal, MA-2 $1,680,986

76-23 in 2006; Unopposed in 2004; D+13

Marty Meehan, MA-5 $4,997,012is year’s session to take the job as President of UMASS-Lowell.  Meehan publicly fought against the call to cash in some of his huge hoard calling it “extortion.”  Oddly, he is allied with Common Cause and is the co-father of campaign reform in the House (Shays-Meehan).  He fought against the blogs and group efforts before while he continued to raise obscene amounts to further pad a huge bank roll.  Don’t know if you can chip it now, Marty, but if not, a lot of this should have funded Nikki Tsongas’ campaign for your seat.

John Tierney, MA-6  $1,293.230

70-30;70-30,;D+11

Stephen Lynch, MA-9 $1,189,148

78-22; unopposed; D+15

William DeLaHunt, MA-10 $1,749,866

64-29; 66-34; D+9

Steny Hoyer, MD-5  $1,564,746  D+9

Chris Van Hollen, MD-8 $1,992,828  D+20

plf had not updated in Round 2 for Maryland but these are people who will kick in and will kick in beyond the 30%.  I have said some bad things over the years about Hoyer but he is a prolific fund raiser for other House members.

John Dingell, MI-15 $1,211,399

The old war horse has represented this district for over 50 years, the longest run in the House. Fwiw, his numbers are 76-23 in 2006. unopposed in 2004 and a D+13 district.

Bennie Thompson, MS-2  $848,842

64-36 in 2006 and 58-40 in 2004.  As his money edge grows, Thompson is stretching this out into an automatic re-elect in a D+10 “majority Minority” district.

Earl Pomeroy, ND-At Large $1,130,511

Pomeroy has been a half-hearted GOP target in years past.  The efforts keep getting weaker.

Rob Andrews, NJ-1  $2,383,585

Frank Pallone, NJ-6 $3,250,178

William Pascrell, NJ-8 $1,137,590

Steve Rothman, NJ-9 $2,002,787

Donald Payne< NJ-10 $983,940

All but Payne are rumored to be saving up lest Frank Lautenberg suddenly retire.  Andrews and Payne went unopposed in 2006 and none of the group has scored below 67% in either of the last two cycles.  Payne has a dandy D+34 PVI in his district.

The only other reason to hold on is smarmy Chris Chrisitie, the state’s US Attorney whose mission in life is to prosecute politicians.  Chrisitie was an equal opportunity prosecutor but now goes after only Democrats in order to save his hjob from Rove’s axe.  Crusader Rabbit has been accused of massive corruption himself by Blue Jersey for steering $3 million in contracts to well connected GOP allies and his old firm.  Chrisitie’s reponse is typical” go after Blue Jersey.

Shelley Berkley, NV-1 $1,159,484

Shelley represents Vegas and has 65-31 and 66-31 margins the last two cycles.  D+8  In this case what happens in Vegas should not stay in Vegas.

Steve Israel, NY-2 $1,004,593

70-30 in 2006; 67-33 in 2004; D+8

Carolyn Maloney, NY-14 $1,108,487; D+26

Her margins in this NYC district are 84-16 and 81-19.  It is hard to expand on 81-19 but she did it.

Charlie Rangel, NY-15 $2,265,159

My excel spreadsheet treated Bush’s 9-90 loss in the district as a date (September 1990).  Of course, Rangel runs ahead of his ticket:  he won 91-7 in 2004 and 94-6 in 2006.  His district’s PVI is D+43.

Once the fact or even possibility of a primary is over, these should be cash cows.  Rangel kicked in in 2006.  

None of the rest have election data so:

Marcy Kaptur, OH-9 $846,226 D+9

Darlene Hooley, OR-5 $467,45 D+1 retiring

Allyson Schwartz, PA-13 $1,619,431 D+8

Patrick Kennedy, RI-1 $700,939 D+16

Jim Clyburn, SC-6 $1,065,327 D+11

John Tanner, TN-8 $1,181,776 D+0

Lloyd Doggett, TX-25 $2,337,581 D+1

Ric Boucher, VA-9 $1,191,069

David Obey, WI-7 $1,235,145

Nick Rahall, WV $1,235,145

IIRC, Kaptur was thrust into a battle of incumbents when redistricted.  She may want the nest egg.

Tanner has higher aspirations.  Governor?  He’s a leading blue dog and (in general) many of the blue dogs have been generous within their group but nit so generous with the DCCC universe as a whole.

The total cash on hand for these individuals is a gawdy $66,832,840.  Uding the Bowers allocation of 30%, a maximum of $20,049,852 could be realized.  This is big money.  Half a million per race for 40 races.

The Washington Post’s “The Sleuth” column credited the ‘liberal blog” Swing State Project with raising the issue of Debbie Wasserman Schultz’s resistance to campaign for south Florida Democrats this afternoon (3/19).  In fact, the Post went further, crediting SSP’s nickname of “Debbie Dubya” for making the issue stick.  Kos’s support was mentioned as a sign that the issue had taken hold in the blogosphere.

Natch, the company town paper did say that it was customary for homestate congress critters to give their colleagues a break (known to us in the blogosphere as a free pass).

It certainly seems that this one hit pay dirt.  Go get ’em, Mr. Van Hollen.  The seat you take over will certainly be a Republican one.  Wonder why the same group didn’t howl about the mid-term redistricting of Tom DeLay in Texas, the failure to count votes in Florida in 2000, or the outrageous Republican gerrymanders in so many states.  They were rather sad, however, when moderate Republican Connie Morrella was replaced by upstart Democrat Chris Van Hollen.  Poor, poor moderates.

(I figured this was big enough news to promote, and, since David Kowalski laid out the details, I saw no point in writing a separate post that repeated the same information. – promoted by The Caped Composer)

Anne Estabrook, a multi-millionaire developer and the frontrunner for the Republican nomination for the US Senate in New Jersey abruptly dropped out on Tuesday morning after suffering a mini stroke on Monday.  Estabrook had already contributed $1.6 million towards the Senate race and was considered the heavy favorite for the Republican nomination.

Her departure leaves two active Republican candidates, inflammatory state senator Joe Pennachio and college professor/gadfly Murray Sabin (Sabrin?).  There may be pressure from the state’s GOP establishment to come up with a name opponent at this point.  Just my own speculation but in relative order candidates might include former Governor Christie Todd Whittman, the state’s US Attorney Chris Christie (good to see him sent packing), retiring US Rep Mike Ferguson, former Senate candidate Tom Keane, Jr. or even one of the south Jersey Reps like Chris Smith or Frank LoBiondo.

Christie has gone from prosecuting all politicians to picking only on Democrats to save his job from Karl Rove’s threatened sacking.  I’d love to see Lautenberg puncture his pompousity like a pus-filled pinata.  If Jerseyans have poor opinions of their politicians, Chrisitie is a leading contributor. (So are some of the talk radio stations in the state and the vicious tone of the political blog at the Star Ledger.  Republicans have no answers but in this state they are nasty, personal, and bullying.)

It was a good night for the incumbents and favorites in Texas and Ohio.  

In Texas, incumbent Democrat Silvestre Reyees (86%) and incumbent Republicans Sam Johnson (87%), Ralph Hall (74%), and Ron Paul (70%)all won easily.  So did Democrats Tom Daley (72%), Dwight Fullingim (62%), and TV Judge Larry Doherty (61%). Republican Lyle Larson dispatched the wonderfully named Quico Canseco 62%-38% in TX-23 and William Willie Vaden won in TX-27 with 56%.  Glenn Melancon, who visits on the blogs, took the Democratic nod in TX-4, 57% to 43% over VaLinda Hathcox.  In the night’s closest race, Ludwig Otto appeared to edge Steve Bush in TX-6 50.6% to 49.4% with 2% of the votes still outstanding.  

In two races, no one got 50%.  Is that a run-off?  The primary schedule for Texas does list run offs.  That would be in TX-22 where Shelley Sekula Gibbs led with 30% to 21% for Pete Olson for the right to oppose Democrat Nick Lampson in Tom DeLay’s former district.  Democrat Eric Roberson led with 45% to 33% for Steve Love in TX-32.

Ohio has no runoffs and yes, OH-2 will see a rematch of physician Vic(toria) Wulsin going against Mean Jean Scmidt.  In the night’s premier matchup, Dennis Kucinich pulled in a clear majority with 50.4% of the vote; Joe Cimperman trailed with 35.0%.  Jane Mitakides won in OH-3 with 54% and Sharon Newhart took the Democratic nod in OH-7 with 37% to 34% for Bill Connor.  

Jill Derby, who lost to then Secretary of State Dean Heller 50-45 lis back and back with a vengeance.  In fact, those are Derby’s own words.

Derby had been serving as the Chair of the Nevada Democratic Party and scrupulously avoided building her own political career while she shepherded the caucuses in their new, nationally important time slot.

Derby, of course, is the former Chancellor of the University of Nevada and she is running in a district that covers at least 75% of the state’s area but only a third of the population.  

This was one of Benawu’s open seats.  It has a daunting RVI of R+8.2.  It covers a huge and different area from the Vegas centered districts.  Yet Heller has gone from a respected statewide official to a backbencher for a minority party.  He doesn’t add name recognition and is probably more vulnerable than he was two years ago considering the poor poll ratings of Congress in general and Republican congress members in particular.

Derby’s web site, www.jillderby.com, has a huge picture odf a smilling Jill Derby with a desert background superimposed and a February 20 dateline.  It starts, “Today, I am announcing my candidacy for Congress.  I’m Jill Derby and I’m back.”

She’s probably the only candidate who can make this seat competitive.  Well, she has.

I was looking through the year end reports for the 30 Democrats elected to formerly Republican seats in 2006 and comparing their cash on hand totals to the Republican challenger with the most cash (with the exception of Mark Foley).  The result showed Democrats with a mighty $27 million to $5 million edge for the group.   Of course, we elect House members on a district by district basis.  And the new Democratic reps lead in every district, in all but a handful by an overwhelming margin.  It was pretty clear that cash was going to be a major “defensive barrier” for Democratic control of the House in 2009 and beyond.  Several other questions came to mind.

First, were there any Democrats seeking re-election who had a cash on hand deficit.  Well, yes, there was one.  One in the whole country.  Nikki Tsongas trailed Jim Oganowski $10,900 to $43,500 but Tsongas had raised and spent $2.6 million in the recent special election.  The figure seemed meaningless.  More like a donor respite than donor fatigue.  Second, how many Republican seats were in a similar deficit?

The answer, was skewed somewhat by the recent spate of retirements.  In some districts, a recent open seat pitted an active Democratic candidate against a testing the waters Republican without much of a warchest.  But that, too, is a reality.  Oh, yes.  The answer is eighteen seats, nearly a tenth of the Republican total.  Here is the list with some comments including the district PVI via Benawu’s listings.

CT-4   PVI = D+5

Democrat Jim Himes shows $800,248 in the bank; New England’s last Republican House member, Chris Shays trails with $797,413.  There will be no Lieberman on the ballot with Shays coat tails either.

NJ-3   PVI= D+3.3

The Democratic candidate of choice for an open seat, John Adler shows $590,595 in the bank.  No Republican dented the FEC reports for this open seat currently held by Jim Saxton.

NJ-7   PVI=R+1

Mike Ferguson, 37 year old Mike Ferguson, gave up the ghost and left this seat open.  Linda Stender, who lost a hard fought election by 3,000 votes in 2006, leads the money race with $502,305 in the bank.  Former first daughter Kate Whitman leads the Republicans with $200,535.  Mommy was barely elected governor -twice.  She “cut” taxes but left a mess.  (Property taxes are very high here.  A later rebate was accompanied by roads badly in need of repair in a state with the highest median income in the country.)

NY-25   PVI=D+3

When Jim Walsh unexpectedly announced his retirement he left Dan Maffei with $439,243 in the bank and no opponent.  Looking good.

NY-29   PVI=R+5

Eric Massa has the cash edge in a rematch against Randy Kuhl.  Massa’a got $414,603; Kuhl has $362,513.  Kuhl has his problems and this was a lot closer than the PVI last time around.

AZ-1   PVI=R+2

In a rare battle of two women, Democrat Ann Kirkpatrick has nearly a 2-1 edge over Republican Sydney Ann Hay in a battle to succeed the embattled Rick Renzi.  If Democrats hold their seats and win this, they will gain control of Arizona’s House delegation by a surprising 5 to 3 margin.  

CA-4   PVI=R+11

Scandal plagued John Doolittle is off to retirement but Charlie Brown has an early, but solid cash lead with $483,489 to Erik Egland’s $78,700.  Off his near miss in 2006, Brown has the name recognition, too.  It’s a good year, Charlie Brown.

ID-1   PVI=R+19

This may be the biggest stunner on the list.  Freshman Wingnut Bill Sali has $100,023; Walter Minnick has $311,168.  Walter Minnick?

IL-11   PVI=R+1.1

Debbie Halvorson has $393,764; Tim Balderman trails with $50,414 in an open seat battle.  Once more, looking good.

IL-14   PVI=R+5

This is deceptive.  Both candidates are coming off hard primaries.  As of 12/31, millionaire Democrat Bill Foster led multi-millionaire and self-funder Jim Oberweis with $508,792 to $396,975.  Oberweis has already poured $1.6 million into his campaign.  

MI-7   PVI+R+2

Freshman winger Tim Walberg ($438,005) is outraised by Mark Schauer.  Is there an upset brewing?  Only cash seems to stand in the way of gaining seats in Michigan.  

MO-9   PVI+R+7

Kenny Hulshoff recently announced he was running for governor making this an open seat and giving at least a temporary lead to Judy Baker ($101,042).  A girl can dream, can’t she?  Let’s see if Baker gains some traction, here.  

NM-1   PVI=D+2

Albuquerque Mayor Martin Heinrich has a solid  lead over Republican Darren White: $277,146 to $172,558.  Incumbent Heather Wilson, like all the NM Congress critters, is running for the open Senate seat.  We should win this one.  Should anyway.

NM-2   PVI=R+6

Democrat Harry Teague has $362,735; Republican Ed Tinsley has $283,890.  The fall matchup is certainly not set, however.

OH-2   PVI=R+13

Mean Jean Schmidt puts this one in play.  Her 2006 opponent, physician Victoria Wulsin has $344,315; Schmidt lags with $124,857 and is now the leading Republican after “Heimlich maneuvered out.”  It may be easier taking this than keeping it.  Let’s go from there.

TX-10   PVI=R+13

TV judge Larry Doherty has the drop on incumbent Michael McCaul with $267,475 to $115,642.  Doherty first has to get by Dan Grant in a Democratic primary battle.

WA-8   PVI=D+2

In a re-match, Darcy Burner has banked $607,143; incumbent Dave Reichert has $462,828.  Reichert’s local notoriety as the sherriff who put away the Green River Killer is fading; so may be his career in the House.  Burner held him to a virtual tie last time and enjoys better name recognition and more cash than in 2006.  Will this be her year?  Quite possibly.

WY-At Large   PVI=R+19

Gary Trauner nearly pulled this one off in 2006.  He’s got $353,290 in the bank and no Republican has emerged to take the place of Barbara Cubin (Dick Cheney without the charm, who has $1,399 left should she change her mind).  Republicans have to defend two Senate seats in Wyoming and that may also help Trauner.

At least 13 others are reasonably close and many more will become competitive.  The NRCC is cash strapped and the DCCC has a large edge.  Money wise, it looks like a promising cycle at this point.