Author: David Kowalski

The Cook PVI rates every House district according to how its vote compared to the national Presidential vote in 2000 and 2004.  Overall, a majority of the House seats, 234 have at least some Republican lean at the Presidential level.  A strong minority, 201, have a Democratic lean.  Democrats currently hold 50 seats that tend Republican at the Presidential level while Republicans hold a dwindling number, 15, with a Democratic lean.

Republican held seats with a D PVI were major targets in 21006 and they continue to be major targets this year.  The status of these 15 seats in four prediction systems (SSP, Open Left/Chris Bowers, Charlie Cook, and Larry Sabato) are discussed below.  These predictions were, for the most part similar and would tend to point to Democrats winning somewhere between 5 and 8 of these seats in the upcoming election.  The number would be higher but for feeble efforts in at least three of these districts.

The two most likely seats to flip both on this list and in the entire country are both located in NY state.  The troubles and travails of the Republicans in Staten Island based NY-13 sound like the “plot” of an old Mel Brooks film.  Chris Bowers over at Open Left gives this D+1 district its most pessimistic rating, “Lean D.”  SSP, Cook and Sabato rate it as Likely D. In NY-25, there is a lot less drama but a safer district (D+3) with Dan Maffei leading the last poll by 18 points.

Five of the 15 seats were labeled Tossups by SSP (CT-4, IL-10, NV-3, NJ-3, and NM-1).  Chris Bowers also had 5 tossups but he had NM-1 as Lean Dem and added PA-15 as a Tossup.  Charlie Cook had 5 Tossups including WA-8 but having IL-10 as Lean Republican.  Larry Sabato agreed with Cook on both WA-8 (Toss up) and IL-10 (Lean R).  I’d agree with SSP although in my heart of hearts Democrats lead in both NJ-3 and CT-4.

Three or four of ther other seats are labeled competitive and three or four become “safe.”  SSP sees one seat as Lean R, WA-8.  That makes sense as it is Lean R with Bowers and Tossup elsewhere.  Matt Stoller’s pieces from the district are interesting but negative.  Darcy Burner has lost the mojo, in fact he sees Obama as sucking all the oxygen and all the juice out of the Washington Governor’s and the WA-8 House race.  The incumbent (Reichert) is pushing blue collar like you wouldn’t believe with repeated public appearances in T shirt (usually white) and jeans.  Seems to be working.  

SSP places IA-4 (the least D of these disericts at D+0) and PA-15 as Likely R.  I’ve lived in PA-15 as recently as 1999.  He can be winnable if everybody is on the same page.  It’s a de-industriaslizing district.   Charlie Dent get a pretty stiff challenge from a candidate who barely made the ballot.  He’s 30 years out of touch with this district.

PA-6 is a solid D+2 that was barely lost in 2006.  Racws to Watch or Likely R.  I’d pkace it as Likely R but … SSP is the pessimist.  Bowers, Cook, and Sabatp give it Likely R status.

FL-10 was long a favorite at SSP but it has dropped off the list.  It’s D+1 and Bowers places it as Likrly R.  Otherwise no bites.  We have a Mayor rrom a mid-sized town running (Duneddin).  Young is the senior GOPer in the House, first elected in 1970.  Ralph Regula (retiring) and Alaska’s Don Young follow in the GOP pecking order.

Nobody puts any of the other three on the boards and it is a shame.  DE-At Large has a gaudy D+7 PVI with the added allure of Joe Biden running for VP (and the Senate).  Yes Castle has a lot of money but this was the year to a) drain the treasury and b) maybe surprise him.  If the DCCC is really flush they ought to run a few ads just to see.

NJ-2 is the third most D heavy district on the list.  Frank Lo Biondo is getting a little challenge but not the major push Jersey Democrats thought they’d muster.  

Peter King represents a sliver of Long Island covering the edges of Nassau and Suffolk counties,  Rumor has it he’ll run for Governor in 2010.  Then rumor had it he’d be more solidly opposed.  King and McHugh could conceivably be all that’s left of the NY GOP at the federal level in under a month.

So what’s your take.  Are we more likely to pull a major upset in one of those R+16 type districts we fight in or somehow wind up with the Christmas present from DE-At Large?

Chris Bowers recently posted a diary at Open Left that contained a fascinating piece of information.  Generic House Democrats were running 9 percentage points ahead of Barack Obama (who was tied with McCain).  It is not like this has not happened before.  Jimmy Carter ran barely 2 percentage points ahead of Gerald Ford in 1976 but nationally, Democrats share of the US House vote was 13% ahead of the Republican share.  Carter repeated the feat 4 years later running distinctly behind Ronald Reagan and a sturdy 12% behind the national Democratic vote for the House.

The obvious point, of course, is that if generic House Democrats are clearly popular, House Democratic challengers would be lining up to run as Democrats rather than as non-partisan or unaligned types.  Democrats should be wrapping themselves ever tighter in their popular brand as we get nearer to the general election.  A review of the web sites for House challengers showed that some candidates are following that strategy but many are still running scared as if it was still 2002.

The trend to stress Democratic ties seemed particularly clear in Washington (all three challengers were clearly identified as Democrats), Florida, California and Texas.  It was surprisingly weak in the Northeast.  Specific data follows below thew fold.

One Northeastern candidate who is clearly pushing his party ties is Jim Himes in CT-4.  Himes is easily labelled a “Democrat for Congress” and includes a picture with Barack Obama and a video with Nancy Pelosi.  Karen Hartley-Nagle (DE-At Large), running as a long shot from the most democratic district held by a Republic follows the strategy to the max.  Joe Courtney from CT is also upfront.

Following the opposite mode is Mike McMahon (NY-13) whose only use of Democratic or Democrat is in a list of endorsements: the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee.  Otoh, McMahon basks in camapign appearance by Chuck Schumer and Hillary Clinton.  wtf.  

Many northeastern Dems include the affiliation on the fron page but not on the logo:  John Hall (NY-19), Dan Maffei (NY-25), Alice Kryzan (NY-26), John Adler (NJ-3), Dennis Shulman (NJ-5), Jennifer Dougherty (MD-6), and Frank Kratovil (MD-1) fit this picture.  Others bury the affiliation in a bio page (Tom Allen for the Senate, Chellie Pingree (ME-1), Mike Arcuri (NY-24), Linda Stender (NJ-7), Josh Zeitz (NJ-4), and Eric Massa (NY-29). Pingree says she’s in the same mold as Donna Edwards. Kirsten Gillibrand identifies herself as a Blue Dog leader but not as a Democrat.

Those Democrats in other parts of the country who push the affiliation include Mary Jo Kilroy (OH-15), Dan Seals (IL-10), Anne Barth (WV-2), Gerry Connally (VA-11), Mary Etta Riley (IN-5), Andrew Concannon (MI-4), Darcy Burner (WA-8), Mark Mays (WA-5), George Fearing (WA-4), Noah Lemas (OR-2), Robert Neeld (FL-14), Tim Cunha (FL-6), Alan Grayson (FL-8), Bob Hackworth (FL-10),Christina Avalos (CA-40), Ed Chau (CA-42), John Thrasher (AZ-2), Jay Stoddard (NE-3), Georgiana Oliver (OK-1), Tracey Smith (TX-12), Roger Waun (TX-13), Tom Love (TX-24), and Brian Ruiz (TX-31).

The Associated Press is reporting that “A gunman entered Arkansas Democratic Party headquarters and shot the party chairman, who is hospitalized in critical condition, authorities said.

The gunman asked to speak to the party chairman, Bill Gwatney, and fired three shots.”  

Gwatney’s secretary refused entry but the man just went in to his office according to Gwatney’s secretary.  The gunman was described as a white man in his 40s driving a blue pick up truck.  Police chased the assailant for twenty miles before engaging in a shoot out and killing the alleged shooter outside of Little Rock.

No reason is given for Gwatney’s attempted murder in the article.  It was briefly on the front page of the NY Times but has been dumped off to the inside pages of the paper’s internet edition.  CNN reports no reason but says that the man went to a neighboring building and was muttering about losing his job.  Gwatney is a new car dealer besides holding his party position.

It is worth noting that none of the state’s four House seats nor a US Senate seat up for election this cycle are being contested (leaving four Dems and Rep unopposed).

Today was the filing deadline in WI as well as the second day of New York’s four day filing period.  Wisconsin information is partial as some candidates have filed the paperwork but the state has not validated their signatures.

The big news is that each side in Wisconsin will field at least one candidate with no major party opposition.  For Republicans, James Sensenbrenner will face a primary challenger (Jim Burkee) and an Independent on the fall ballot (Robert Raymond) but no Democrat.  Gwen Moore (D, WI-4) will also face an Independent in the fall (Michael LaForest) but no Republican.  

Four Democrats appear to have qualified to oppose Paul Ryan in WI-1 (Paulette Garin, Mike Hebert, Marge Krupp, John Mogk).  They will meet in a September 9 primary.  Roger Kittelson has the signatures to oppose Tom Petri in WI-6 (unopposed in 2006).  He may (or may not) face Mark Wollom in a primary depending on the validation of signatures.

Signatures must also be validated for three Republicans seeking to make the ballot in Wisconsin.  Surprisingly, one of them is John Gard.  This may show a bit of weakness in his candidacy in WI-8.  The others are Peter Theron in WI-2 (vs. Tammy Baldwin) and Paul Stark in WI-3 (vs. Ron Kind).  Could there be another free ride?

In NY, two of the three Republican House incumbents who have actually expressed interest in retaining their seats have filed: Peter King and John McHugh.  It will be interesting to see if a candidate emerges in NY-13 and what the deal is in NY-25 and how many free rides come out of Democratic districts in the City.

The number of Republican House members who have not yet filed or announced their retirement is down to four in the entire country:  Steve Scalise (LA-1), Rodney Alexander (LA-5), Mike Castle (DE-At Large), and Randy Kuhl (NY-29).  At this point, I expect all to run.  

On the Democratic side, the biggest question mark as we wrap up filing remains whether we will find an opponent in NY-3 for Peter King.  This is an eminently winnable seat.  I think there may be a cattle call when King retires.  Only when will that be?

An interesting side note is the number of high profile primary challenges to Democratic state senators and assembly members.  Reading the Albany Project blog or the Albany Times-Union (local politics don’t seem as big in the NY City dailies), you’d think the state senate had already changed hands.  

In 1976, Democrats followed an historic congressional victory with a firm trifecta.  Not only did Jimmy Carter win the White House but Democrats controlled the House by a 292-143 margin and the Senate by a 61-38-1 edge.  The victory was done well before it “required” 60 Senate votes to move everyday legislation.  This was a working majority fully equivalent to the early days of FDR (1933-39) and the one golden term of LBJ (1965-67) but in retrospect little or nothing got done.  Why?

The most obvious answer was the “war” between Tip O’Neill and Jimmy Carter.  Carter ran against Washington and nobody represented Washington and its ways more than O’Neill.  Rather than working with O’Neill at the outset, Carter made the unusual move of trying to take him on.  As Tip said to Jimmy, we elected 289 members running against Nixon and we can elect 289 members running against you.  Democrats in Congress were used to batling against an imperial Presidency.  Carter may have looked non-threatening to many but to Congress he was a direct challenge.  Congress, as an institution, won.  (Cultural differences between the Irish Catholic and the waspy Protestant/ born again sure didn’t help either).

Carter went to war on procedural issues and items that sounded big to him but didn’t really matter to the public.  Civil service reform and cutting government spending by eliminating a carrier and a mere $2 billion in public works were really arranging the deck chairs on the Titanic.  We were facing an obvious energy crisis and with a solid majority what happened?  Nothing.  The one big move made by the feds was by Jerry Ford: raising the mileage required from US car makers for future models.  Carter could have made long term changes that would have pretty much solved the problem by 30 years later.  He didn’t even though the public was ready for it and best sellers of the time like the conventional wisdom “Energy Future” assumed solar would be as much as 20% of energy by now.

So what are the lessons?  A Republican can get change by running against washington.  A Democrat needs to work with Washington to implement a specific set of policy prescriptions.  Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid or their successors need to be the President’s best friends and not cultural and political enemies.

Institutional changes in areas like civil service, contracting, earmarks, etc. are an expensive and needless distraction.  Health care, energy, the environment, and civillian control of the military matter.  Social Security and Medicare and labor laws meant a lot to a lot of people.  Do you really think reforming ear marks will have the same bang?  And it could potentially piss off a lot of legislators.  Funny how Republican pork was OK and now Democrats are supposed to get rid of it all.

Many successful administrations have come in with a generation full of wish lists and enacted a lot of them into law.  Lincoln, for example, was about a lot of things besides the civil war and slavery.  The Homestead Act, the Land Grant colleges, and the transcontinental railroad all got the go ahead under Honest Abe.  The value of this approach is that these items come pre-sold to the public and are less likely to be swept away by a vague Harry and Louise PR campaign. FDR’s plans, at least many of them, had been tested at the state level.  Clinton’s ambitious health plan, otoh, was invented and had to be sold.  Congress insisted  on this and so we got a lot of ads and no progress.

Where are we headed?  Towards a pre-packaged success or towards institutional “reform.”   Give me the LBJ/FDR/Lincoln blitz any time.  

Don Young filed for re-election as Alaska’s deadline neared opening up a knock down drag out battle with Sean Parnell for the GOP nod.  Young’s announcement was frankly weird.  He admitted to be aggressive and a bully in Washington but said he got along with Alaskans unless they crossed him.  It sounded like bad dialogue from one of those really old westerns.

Young’s campaign site is further testament to his overblown ego.  While he uses the headline “Congressman for All Alaska”, Young freely admits that he only represents the people who vote for him and not those who voted for the other candidates.  I guess he’s not the Congressman for All Alaskans.

Then new headlines emerge: “No one has done more.  No one can do more.” All this while some truly magnificent pictures of Alaska scenery stream by in the background.  Folks, the site is borderline delusional and has just a hint of borderline blasphemy to it.  Don Young did not create mountains and glaciers and all these neat thins.  IIRC, no people either.  Guess he gets along better with the scenery than with the people.

Young’s announcement was expected and it may not have been the craziest item over the wekend. That probably goes to Amendment 48, a proposed set of changes to the Colorado Constitutionthat would change the definition of “person” to include “any human being from the moment of fertilization.”  The Amendment will be on the November 4 ballot having already survived a Colorado Court challenge and received 103,000 valid signatures.

Prominent backers of the Amendment include the Colorado Springs based Focus on the Family and the Catholic Church.  The Amendment would allow what the Denver Post blithely called the “preborn” to due and be sued just like real or corporate persons. The Denver Post says it “would guarantee the pre-born the right to life, liberty sand due process of law.”

Clearly, the Amendment would jeopardize the status of abortion and abortion providers within Colorado while opening up mew forms of employment for Colorado lawyers.  Mom, Dad, and the pre-born plus the prosecutor.  How expensive and nuts.  In the hands of a zealous prosecutor or a wingnut lawyer the number of suits against mom-to-be (or is it mom?) who drinks, drives fast or even over indulges on junk food is clearly in the cards.

I also wonder whether “pre-borns” would count in Colorado’s census and reapportionment (local) issues.  In 2006 Colorado had 70,737 borths giving the “pre-born” a population of 53,000.  Averaging over 5 years, the number would be 51,000.  How would you like to lose a Congressman to the pre-born? (And yes it sounds like the pre-cogs from that Tom Cruise picture of a few years ago).

The strategy is to make abortion this year’s anti-gun or anti-gay theme to turn out fundies in Colorado.  The state’s three Republican Congress critters are Tom Tancredo, Marilyn Musgrave and Doug Lamborn who flirts with the lowest score in the country on the Progressive Punch scale.  Lamborn may not be sufficiently colorful enough as he seems to be generating some serious opposition.

Colorado and Alaska are tied in, of course, by the use of Mt. denali as photo footage background by Senate candidate Bob Schaffer.

The Boston Globe is reporting that top Republican recruit Jim Ogonowski fell 82 valid signatures short of the required number to place on the primary ballot. Ogo’s spokesman says he has the signatures but they haven;t been reported yet.  Ogo’s opponent says he’ll mount a challenge if Ogo breaks the barrier. Fun, fun, fun.

Meanwhile, back on the ranch, New Mexico’s Pajamas Pete Domenici is endorsing his protege, Heather Wilson, for the Senate calling Wilson one of the smartest people he knows.  A few years ago, this would have been a touching and meaningful tribute.  Now?  Who knows.

Background on the Staten Island situation.  A City Council member makes $112,000 for a part time job.  State Senators make an official $79,500 that expands routinely to $92,000.  Assembly members are more likely to take home $79,500 although many bring home $92 K

.  Given the costs of a second home or the possibility of part time legal work, the $165 salary really is not too attractive.

The general belief seems to be that it is important to “clear the field” in primaries to get a winning hand in the fall general election.  The belief is founded on a number of factors.  Many interest groups will not back a candidate with a primary election opponent.  Primary election campaigns can be costly and challengers generally have less money to spend than incumbents.  Anecdotal evidence points to a number of campaigns easch cycle where a strong primary is followed by disappointing results in the fall.

I decided to test this thesis by looking at election results for all 31 Democratic pickups in the House during the 2006 cycle (including Peter Welch as a pickup in Vermont) and comparing the results to close losses.  The close losses were not systenmatic but I looked at 20 races that fit the bill.

Overall, 14 of the 31 pickups (45%) were preceded by primary elections, a higher than expected number.  Although some of these were blowouts, a surprising number were close and in many cases surprise winners emerged despite less money.  As a comparison, among the 20 close but losing elections only seven (35%) were preceded by primaries and only one of those was close: the Tammy Duckworth-Christine Cegelis- Scott duel in IL-6.

Adding fuel to the fire, IIRC, all 3 of our special election vitories were preceded by primaries.  Bill Foster’s win in IL-14 (at least for November) against John Laesch, was a much tougher battle than his win against Jim Oberweis.

A listing and some commentary follow with emphasis on upsets and close races.

The only primary that mattered in the New England House races mattered a good deal.  Carol Shea-Porter surprised Jim Craig in a multi-candidate field and then won a close election to the House with just $290,000 in campaign expenditures (being outspent nearly 4:1). Nobody knows if the better known, more establishment Craig would have pulled it off.  Shea-Porter depended mostly on volunteers and a lot of shoe leather, particularly her own.  Her personal efforts in Manchester vs. Craig going door to door and bar to bar certainly paid off in both the general election and in the primary, itself.

NH-2 (Hodes) and the CT races (Joe Courtney, CT-2; Chris Murphy, CT-5, and Diane Farrell, CT-4 were all uncontested.

New York had six major races with three pickups and three close loses.  Only one had a primary and that produced what was seeen on the blogs as an upset.  In NY-19, John Hall won rather easily in a multi-candidate field converting his years as a local official and rock star status (singer with the band Orleans famous for “You’re the One”) into a comfortable victory over the much better funded Judy Aydelott and others (I remember Ben Shuldiner).  NY-20(Kirsten Gillibrand),24 (Michael Arcuri), 25 (Dan Maffei),26 (Jack Davis), and 29 (Eric Massa) were uncontested.  Gillibrand and Arcuri won in the fall.

PA produced four wins and one close loss.  Two of the four winners (Jason Altmire and Patrick Murphy) faced primary challengers.  Altmire got a fairly sturdy challenge besting Georgia Berner 55% to 45% en route to dethroning Melissa Hart in PA-4.  Murphy had an easier time over Andrew Warren 65% to 35%.  Lois Murphy had a token challenge against Anrew Leibowitz (76% to 24%)  prior to losing versus Jim Gerlach in PA-6.

Elsewhere in the Northeast, Linda Stender had no primary but lost closely to Mikrke Ferguson in NJ-7.  Peter Welch, a general election winner in VT also faced no primary.

Lest we forget, in OH-18 Zach Space coasted to an easy win in November but many thought Joe Sulzer would be the likely nominee.  Space won in a multi candidate field.  Only one of three close losers in OH faced a primary (Vic Wulsin who won in a multi candidate field including Thor Jacobs and Jim Parker).  John Cranley and Mary Jo Kilroy had an open path to the general election.

Both Joe Donnelly and Baron Hill faced easy primaries and Brad Ellsworth went unopposed among three Indiana pickups.  Tim Walz in Minnesota was also unopposed but Steve Kagen had to claw his way through a multi-candidate field  including Wall and Nussbaum.  I remember a lot of people touting Nussbaum.

Tammy Duckworth spent a bundle to secure the Democratic nomination by just 1,000 votes over Christine Cegelis.  And provided a disappointing loss in November.  Tim Walz in MN-1 had a clear field but Steve Kagen had to beat a multi-candidate field before he clould allegedly tell Karl Rove he was Dr. Multi-Millionaire.

John Yarmuth got 53% in a primary vs. Andrew Horne and others before taking on Anne Northrup in KY-3.  Heath Shuler coasted through his primary but Tim Mahoney and Ron Klein in Florida got free rides.  Close losers in the south also had to earn their way in with larry Kissell having an easy time but Christine Jennings (61%) drawing 2004 nominee Jan Schneider (39%) in FL-13.

In the Plains, Bruce Braley had a brutal three way battle against Dickinson and Gluba but Dave Loebsack had no opponent.  Nancy Boyda wa unopposed. Nick Lampson and Ciro Rodriguez were OK (although this was Ciro’s second go around in the cycle).

Out west, winner Harry Mitchell was unopposed butGabrielle Giffords won 54% in a multi-candidate fieldand Jerry McNerney had to upset the establishment fave, Steve Flson, befoe taking down Richard Pombo in the general.  Ed Perlmutter also triumphed against two other strong candidates particularly Peggy Lamm in CO.

Western close losers Gary Trauner, Darcy Burner and Angie Pacccione were unopposed and Tessa Hafen won easily in NV with 58% in a multi-candidate field.

In short, the winners in pickup races were more likely to face a challenge, more likely to face a serious challenge and were forced to pull upsets against better funded opponents in a number of races.  You would be hard pessed to make an argument for clearing the field based on these results.

Nasty blood fueds like Cegelis vs. Duckworth however were damaging and they should be avoided.

In the South, John Yarmuth (KY-3)

 

Twelve states still have open filing (or will have open filing).  Then there’s Virginia with its filing date (passed) and the party congressional district conventions.  This does not include states like Massachussetts and hawaii with an entirely Democratic delegation.  In the remaining states, New York has the most Republican members of congress (6) but Oklahoma has the most who have not announced retirement (4).  In total, these states have 36 GOP representatives with eight retirements.

Alaska has a June 2 filing deadline.  The case for a Don Young retirement is simple.  It will allow him to spend all his remaining cash on hand on his legal defence.  The seat already has an announced Republican who has filed, Sean Parnell.  Young still has a huge cash advantage over his opponents and would, at the least, stand a good chance at defeating Parnell.  We’ll know by June 2.

My second ranked retirement choice would be a surprise but given the flak he’s taken, it seems like an interesting personal choice.  Tom Cole has a safe seat in Oklahoma (June 4 deadline) but has receiveds merciless criticism, particularly from Boehner.  Given that the last NRCC head ts retiring this year, this job takes a lot out of its current place holder and gives little in return (Tom Davis was, after all, shoved out of the US Senate race in VA).  Maybe he’ll decide to chuck it, do his best, and say sayonara.

None of the other Oklahoma incumbents (Sullivan, Lucas, and Fallin) seem even remotely likely to leave.  Others have been on rumor lists in the past so they migh seem like possible retirement choices.

Colorado is the next state out of the chute and Marilyn Musgrave was frequently mentioned as being pressed to drop out.  There is no talk of that, Doug La,born is a first-term true believer and Tancredo is the one leaving.  No change.

Wyoming is next and Barbara Cubin has already announced she’s departing.

No, next on my list is someone who is independently wealthy, 65 years old, but who is unopposed.  That would be Jim Sensenbrenner in Wisconsin.  If Sensenbrenner.  Sensenbrenner would have the added benefit of being able to basically name his successor.  (other Wisconsin Republicans are Tom Petri and Ryan).

Fourth and fifth on my list are two Washington Republicans, Cathy McMorris Rogers and Doc Hastings.  McMorris Rogers missed a lot of time while giving birth.  She may prefer spending more time in a more stable environment than being a member of the House representing a district coveriong Spokane.  Hastings is a member of the Republican class of 1994.  He lost a lot of clout when the Democrats took power and was frequently mentioned early on as a possible retiree.  Dave Reichert spent seemingly 20 years hunting the Green River Killer.  I don’t see him giving up on a House seat he holds (if barely) this soon in his career.  Lose, yes.  Retire, no.

6 and 7. John McHugh won easily in 2006 and faces an opponent, in Mike Oot, with a slim $15,415 in the bank. OTOH, McHugh was mentioned on this site IIRC as possibly stepping down and running for a State Senate set recently taken by Darrell Aubertine.  McHugh is not exactly rolling in cash with a paltry $261,698.It’s a toss up district (R+0.2)in a Democratic state where the GOP seems to be doing its best to disappear.  Randy Kuhl has the safest Republican district in the state (R+5, NY-29).  Kuhl has a volcanic temper, though, and trails Eric Massa in cash on hand by $365 K (Kuhl) to $565 K (Massa).  My guess is that Kuhl is far more likely to lose this seat than give it up.  Still, since another candidate might well do better, retirement is possible.  (Peter King is safe in the other activer NY seat as he has money ($802 K) and lacks a challenger.

8. Mike Castle.  Castle has plenty of money but he earlier suffered a stroke (which he and his staff covered up).  Health problems are the only thing that could drag Mike from defending this D+7 seat.

9. Marilyn Musgrave.  Musgrave was pushed to retire early as she has badly underperformed her district.  Instead, the feisty conservative has tried to position herself as more bi-partisan.  I think it’s a crock but it does show she’s running again.  Doug Lamborn has a primary opponent but he’s already running again.  (The Colorado system shows some districts earlier than others based on the district assembly date for the party.)  Tom Tancredo has long since announced his retirement.

10.  John Shadegg.  Shadegg already retired once and has a pile of cash.  He’s running.  Bur Jeff Flake is running for a leadershio position and Trent Franks has shown no inclination to join the retirees.  Rick Renzi is awaiting his defence and retirement.

Nothing happening:  KS (Moran and Tiarrht); LA (the newly elected Scalise, Alexander, and Boustany); MN (Kline and Bachmann).

Don Young may realistically retire.  Anybody else seems highly unlikely.

Thanks to Benawu, it’s pretty easy to make a list of Republican seats sorted by Cook PVI scores.  (The information is also available at Wikipedia, btw, but I trust Benawu).  FEC reports are also pretty accessible at www.fec.gov so it’s a nice research project.

Well, to keep things manageable I looked up the cash on hand balances of all Republican incumbents and the leading money raising challenger for Republican seats that are open this cycle.  Excell allows for some comparisons.

The average cash balance for these 78 seats is $720,059.  The average for the 55 incumbents is $819,234; the average for the 13 open seats is $224,184.  There’s the value of incumbency in dollars and cents.  Republicans in Democratic territory, those with a PVI of D+1 or higher, were a bit better funded but incumbency trumped everything else.  The 13 Republicans averaged $838,144 with ten incumbents in these seats at $1,031,027 and three open seats averaging $195,201.

An analysis of each of the Lean D sistricts and competes on particularly weak Republicans follows below the fold.  I’d include the entire spreadsheet but I don’t know how to import it.  

Republicans in D Land

D+7 is Delaware and Mike Castle.  Castle is sitting on $1,547,493.  Somebody, Jerry Northington, Dennis Spivack, Beau Biden, needs to make a run at him.  Ine run will probably cut this down to manageable and beatable size.  Yes, this is a sore spot.

D+5 is Chris Shays.  Shays scores well on Progressive Punch but he is not only a proponent of the Iraq War but is one of the most outspoken proponents of torture.  Even though the latest figures (April 20 from my notes) give him  $1,247,000 and a $200 K lead on Jim Himes we are in the ball park.  He won’t have Joe Lieberman’s coat tails this time.  We need to take him out this time.

D+4 leaves us with the well heeled Frank Lo Biondo (NJ-2) and the even heelier Mark Kirk.  Moderate Republicans but Kirk had the fight of his life last cycle and Dan Seals is back for more.  A lot of people talk about Obama’s coat tails.  Well, if it shows up anywhere this is it.  LoBiondo has had a series of free rides.  Time to give him a tussle.

D+3 gives us two races both open seats with a financial edge to the Democrats.  Yeah. baby.  In NJ-3, John Adler has $1,003,551 while the Republican is at $288,100.  Srick a fork in him?

In NY-25, Dan Maffei’s “opponent” has yet to show a $1 in the bank.  Maffei has $675,660.  I honestly think that the NY State GOP is conceding this House seat.

D+2 has four House seats held by Republicans with one, NM-1, open.  Looking good.  The lead Republican has $297,499.  Nice but not overwhelming.  Look for McCain to slurp up a lot of outside funding and for the GOP to leave this seat to fend for itself.  (you did see those Udall polls up-ticket)  The other three seats show one with an incumbent being outraised (WA-8) where Darcy Burner appears to have the edge (finally) on Dave Reichert.  Two others, both in PA, give the early money lead to the Republican incumbents.  Neither Gerlach in PA-6 ($714,580 to $168,259) nor Charlie Dent in PA-15 ($182,830) is home free by any means.

D+1 has only three seat including the weakest incumbent Republican on the board.  That’s Vito Fossella.  Fossella has only $248,100 in the bank and that’s after a vigorous fund raising campaign in the first quarter that rescued him from a pathetic $50 K cash on hand.  He’s cancelling fund raisers, enmeshed in scandals (plural, the DUI, the mistress, the child).  And he’s outraised by Recchia with new candidates from both parties chomping at the bit.  One has to go all the way to R+6 to find an incumbent Republican running for re-election with a smaller bank account than Vito Fossella (Ken Calvert of CA-44 and Tim Johnson of IL-15).

As for the other D+1 Republicans, Jon Porter has $1,083,693 in NV-3 and he will need it against Dina Titus.  Bill Young may get a vigorous challenge for once.  He was my congressman in the 70’s (and 80s) and is still there with $555,655 in the bank.  The GOP plan appears to be for Young, who has been in the House since 1970, to take it to re-districting. I haven’t seen it written anywhere but it makes sense.  In four years they hope to draw more friendly lines.  This seems to be our best chance before 2012.

Speaking of low hanging fruit, here come the underfunded and open seats:

NY-23 McHugh $261,698 (O, actually R+0.2)  Oot (not a typo)is seriously underfunded as his opponent but McHugh could be the victim of a late charge if the DCCC has money in its coffers.

NJ-7 Open, R+1.  Linda Stender has a serious cash lead ($845 K) as former firsr daughter Kate Whittman ($307 K) takes on Leonard Lance ($255 K)and others in a primary.  The district has already rejected another first child, Tom Keane, Jr., in a recent GOP primary duel.  We lost this seat by 2.000 votes last time with the Out of Iraq Now party or some such pulling 3,000.  Should win here.

MN-1 Open, R+1.  Jim Ramstad is gone but Ash Madia seems to be facing a money gap against Erik Paulsen.

MN-2, Kline, R+3.  This may be the sleeper of this cycle.  Kline is clearly conservative.  Ramstad and Bachmann’s districts will get the attention and Kline is sitting against Steve Sarvi with just $375 K in the bank.  Attack everywhere and someplace will be open (see Lincoln re: New Orleans capture).

OH-15, Open, R+1.  Mary Jo Kilroy came close last time and is a local official.  In some ways we may have the incumbency factor here.  Steve Stivers has done a great job of fund raising for the Republicans with $599,689.

VA-11, open, R+1.  Feels the same as OH-15.  Again, the GOP has raised cash here: $742,045.

AZ-1, open, R+2.  Scandal plagued Rick Renzi leaves this seat.  Ann Kirkpatrick has a 2-1 fund raising edge over “cowgirl” (not) Sydney Hay in a likely all-female faceoff.

CA-45, Bono Mack, R+3.  New husband (Connie Mack of FL-14) 3,000 miles away may cause Mary Bono Mack to leave this Palm Springs district a little unattended.  At $344,123 she’s one of the most poorly funded incumbents on this list.

NC-8, Robin Hates, R+3.  Self-funder Robin Hayes is loaded with $987 K against Larry Kissell.  No surprises this time, Larry.  Got to beat his pampered butt for real.

FL-15, open, R+4.  Nobody has really geared up to take Dave Weldon’s seat.  Why not us?

IL-18, open, R+5.  Aaron Schock is a loud mouthed kid who the GOP has annointed as a golden boy.  Only he has little cash advantage (only $188 k vs. over $100 K) vs. media savvy Coleen Callahan.  Save us from another one of these congressional brats.  Please.  We have a real good chance, here.

VA-10, Wolf, R+6.  Yes he’s got $715 K but Judy Feder can raise the green stuff, too.  The district is shading more blue.  Is this the time?

OH-7, open, R+6.  Their candidate has $51,819.

CA-44, Calvert, R+6.  Give it a whirl at $222 K.

CA-46, Rohrabacher, R+6.  $331 K in the bank.  Less than half the national average; 40% what the average incumbent carries on this list.

IL-15, Tim Johnson, R+6.  $106,759.  Johnson is a) principled, b)lazy, c)one heck of a poker player d) stupid/”lucky”.  Don’t know bur gee is that a tempting number to cause problems.