Author: benawu

In less than 17 months the midterms will be upon us.

In 2006 we fielded candidates in 425 districts and in 2008 candidates in 421.

How will we go in 2010?

Below the fold for all the details and hey go check out the shiny new 2010 Race Tracker Wiki over at Open Congress for all your House, Senate and Gubernatorial needs.

(Cross posted at Daily Kos, MyDD and Open Left)

Well for starters I think we can safely assume that we will field candidates in all 257 of the Districts that we currently hold (does anyone really think that we won’t win in CA-32 in July?).

So onto the Republican held districts:

40 GOP held Districts have confirmed Democratic Party candidates:

AL-03 (Rogers) – R+9,

AR-03 (Boozman) – R+16,

CA-03 (Lundgren) – R+6,

CA-24 (Gallegly) – R+4,

CA-26 (Dreier) – R+3,

CA-44 (Calvert) – R+6,

CA-45 (Bono Mack) – R+3,

CA-48 (Campbell) – R+6,

CA-50 (Bilbray) – R+3,

C0-06 (Coffman) – R+8,

DE-AL (Castle) – D+7,

FL-05 (Brown-Waite) – R+9,

FL-06 (Stearns) – R+10,

FL-07 (Mica) – R+7,

FL-10 (Young) – R+1,

FL-12 (Putnam OPEN) – R+6,

FL-14 (Mack) – R+11,

IL-10 (Kirk) – D+6,

IL-13 (Biggert) – R+1,

IL-18 (Schock) – R+6,

KS-04 (Tiahrt) – R+14,

KY-04 (Davis) – R+14,

KY-05 (Rogers) – R+15,

MD-06 (Bartlett) – R+13,

MN-06 (Bachmann) – R+7,

MI-11 (McCotter) – R+0,

MT-AL (Rehberg) – R+7,

NE-03 (Smith) – R+24,

NV-02 (Heller) – R+5,

NY-23 (McHugh) – R+1,

OH-02 (Schmidt) – R+13,

PA-06 (Gerlach) – D+4,

PA-16 (Pitts) – R+8,

TN-03 (Wamp OPEN) – R+13,

TN-07 (Blackburn) – R+18,

TX-26 (Burgess) – R+13,

SC-02 (Wilson) – R+9,

VA-07 (Cantor) – R+9,

WA-08 (Reichert) – D+3,

WI-01 (Ryan) – R+2,

10 GOP held Districts have Democratic Party candidates that are considering a run:

AK-AL (Young) – R+13,

CA-04 (McClintock) – R+10,

FL-16 (Rooney) – R+5,

LA-02 (Cao) – D+25,

NY-03 (King) – R+4,

OH-14 (LaTourette) – R+3,

PA-15 (Dent) – D+2,

TX-10 (McCaul) – R+10,

TX-32 (Sessions) – R+8,

WI-06 (Petri) – R+4,

4 GOP held Districts have rumoured Democratic Party candidates:

FL-13 (Buchanan) – R+6,

MN-03 (Paulsen) – R+0,

SC-01 (Brown) – R+10,

SC-03 (Barrett OPEN) – R+17,

124 GOP held Districts don’t have any Democratic Party candidates:

AL-01 (Bonner) – R+14,

AL-04 (Aderholt) – R+26,

AL-06 (Bachus) – R+29,

AZ-02 (Franks) – R+13,

AZ-03 (Shadegg) – R+9,

AZ-06 (Flake) – R+15,

CA-02 (Herger) – R+11,

CA-19 (Radanovich) – R+9,

CA-21 (Nunes) – R+13,

CA-22 (McCarthy) – R+16,

CA-25 (McKeon) – R+6,

CA-40 (Royce) – R+8,

CA-41 (Lewis) – R+10,

CA-42 (Miller) – R+10,

CA-46 (Rohrabacher) – R+6,

CA-49 (Issa) – R+10,

CA-52 (Hunter) – R+9,

C0-05 (Lamborn) – R+14,

FL-01 (Miller) – R+21,

FL-04 (Crenshaw) – R+17,

FL-09 (Bilirakis) – R+6,

FL-15 (Posey) – R+6,

FL-18 (Ros-Lehtinen) – R+3,

FL-21 (Diaz-Balart) – R+5,

FL-25 (Diaz-Balart) – R+5,

GA-01 (Kingston) – R+16,

GA-03 (Westmoreland) – R+19,

GA-06 (Price) – R+19,

GA-07 (Linder) – R+16,

GA-09 (Deal OPEN) – R+28,

GA-10 (Broun) – R+15,

GA-11 (Gingrey) – R+20,

ID-02 (Simpson) – R+17,

IL-06 (Roskam) – R+0,

IL-15 (Johnson) – R+6,

IL-16 (Manzullo) – R+2,

IL-19 (Shimkus) – R+9,

IN-03 (Souder) – R+14,

IN-04 (Buyer) – R+14,

IN-05 (Burton) – R+17,

IN-06 (Pence) – R+10,

IA-04 (Latham) – R+0,

IA-05 (King) – R+9,

KS-01 (Moran OPEN) – R+23,

KS-02 (Jenkins) – R+9,

KY-01 (Whitfield) – R+15,

KY-02 (Guthrie) – R+15,

LA-01 (Scalise) – R+24,

LA-04 (Fleming) – R+11,

LA-05 (Alexander) – R+14,

LA-06 (Cassidy) – R+10,

LA-07 (Boustany) – R+14,

MI-02 (Hoekstra OPEN) – R+7,

MI-03 (Ehlers) – R+6,

MI-04 (Camp) – R+3,

MI-06 (Upton) – R+0,

MI-08 (Rogers) – R+2,

MI-10 (Miller) – R+5,

MN-02 (Kline) – R+4,

MS-03 (Harper) – R+15,

MO-02 (Akin) – R+9,

MO-06 (Graves) – R+7,

MO-07 (Blunt OPEN) – R+15,

MO-08 (Emerson) – R+17,

MO-09 (Luetkemeyer) – R+9,

NE-01 (Fortenberry) – R+11,

NE-02 (Terry) – R+6,

NJ-02 (LoBiondo) – D+1,

NJ-04 (Smith) – R+6,

NJ-05 (Garrett) – R+7,

NJ-07 (Lance) – R+3,

NJ-11 (Frelinghuysen) – R+7,

NY-26 (Lee) – R+6,

NC-03 (Jones) – R+16,

NC-05 (Foxx) – R+15,

NC-06 (Coble) – R+18,

NC-09 (Myrick) – R+11,

NC-10 (McHenry) – R+17,

OH-03 (Turner) – R+5,

OH-04 (Jordan) – R+15,

OH-05 (Latta) – R+9,

OH-07 (Austria) – R+7,

OH-08 (Boehner) – R+11,

OH-12 (Tiberi) – D+1,

OK-01 (Sullivan) – R+16,

OK-03 (Lucas) – R+24,

OK-04 (Cole) – R+18,

OK-05 (Fallin OPEN) – R+13,

OR-02 (Walden) – R+10,

PA-05 (Thompson) – R+9,

PA-09 (Shuster) – R+17,

PA-18 (Murphy) – R+6,

PA-19 (Platts) – R+12,

SC-04 (Inglis) – R+15,

TN-01 (Roe) – R+21,

TN-02 (Duncan) – R+16,

TX-01 (Gohmert) – R+21,

TX-02 (Poe) – R+13,

TX-03 (Johnson) – R+14,

TX-04 (Hall) – R+21,

TX-05 (Hensarling) – R+17,

TX-06 (Barton) – R+15,

TX-07 (Culberson) – R+13,

TX-08 (Brady) – R+25,

TX-11 (Conaway) – R+28,

TX-12 (Granger) – R+16,

TX-13 (Thornberry) – R+29,

TX-14 (Paul) – R+18,

TX-19 (Neugebaeur) – R+26,

TX-21 (Smith) – R+14,

TX-22 (Olsen) – R+13,

TX-24 (Marchant) – R+11,

TX-31 (Carter) – R+14,

UT-01 (Bishop) – R+21,

UT-03 (Chaffetz) – R+26,

VA-01 (Wittman) – R+7,

VA-04 (Forbes) – R+4,

VA-06 (Goodlatte) – R+12,

VA-10 (Wolf) – R+2,

WA-04 (Hastings) – R+13,

WA-05 (McMorris Rodgers) – R+7,

WV-02 (Capito) – R+8,

WI-05 (Sensenbrenner) – R+12,

WY-AL (Lummis) – R+20,

So we now have candidate in 297 House Districts, 10 Districts with candidates considering their options and 4 with rumoured candidates.

Whilst in numerical terms we are about where we were at this stage in 2007 we do now hold 20 more districts but we also control the White House (still love saying that).

So at this stage there is no real cause for concern vis a vis candidate recruitment but so much more remains to be done.

On the upside we already have a full slate in 15 states – Arkansas, Connecticut, Delaware, Hawaii, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Montana, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico :), North Dakota, Rhode Island, South Dakota & Vermont.

We also have only 1 district to fill in 7 states – Alaska, Colorado, Idaho, Mississippi, Oregon, West Virginia and Wyoming.  

On the other hand however Texas is a problem for us as it has been for the last two cycles with 19 Districts still to fill. So too do we have far too many vancancies in California and Florida but at least in these 2 states we do already have candidates in a number of Republican districts.

Expect candidates to bob up with increasing frequency from here on in.

Any news, gossip or thoughts in the comments please.

We had a pretty good night on election night in the Northeast. We cleaned house. We nailed 1 GOP Senator, 6 House of Reps Districts, 1 State Senate and held on to all of the State Senates, State Houses, US House Reps and US Senators we had coming into this cycle.

That the Northeast is rapidly realigning towards team Blue is undeniable!

But the work my friends has merely begun. Forget the bunkum about us being irretrievably on defense in 2010 come below the fold to see who should be in our sights in 2010 as we stay on offense in the Northeast……..

Just to avoid any debate, (and because I got it wrong last time I tried this) the US Census defines the Northeast region as including 9 states as follows: Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island and Vermont. And aggregating across all 9 states the lay of the land looks like this:

States that voted for Obama: 9/9

Governors: 6/9

US Senators: 14/18 (Counting Sanders and Leiberman as Dems)

House Districts: 68/83

State Senates: 8/9

State Houses: 9/9

Where I think a race is a safe Democratic hold I won’t be saying much about it such as all of our Northeast US Senators and US House races on the ballot in 2010.

Going state by state then:

Connecticut

Gubernatorial – GOP Gov Jodi Rell is quite popular and will likely be looking for a 3rd term. OTOH the Dem bench is VERY deep and a top tier challenger should be able to be found. Problem is who would want to take on such a popular pol?

US Senate – Both Dems (Hey Lieberman isn’t up for re-election in 2010 Dodd is.)

US House – ALL OURS BABY! – Keep an eye on CT-04

State Senate – zzzzzzzzzzz

State House – zzzzzzzzzzz

Maine

Gubernatorial – Dem John Baldacci probably won’t run again which on balance makes this gubernatorial chamber an easier hold for us than otherwise. The only possible exception to this is if either of the GOP US Senators run – a highly unlikely thing to happen.

US Senate – Both Repubs! Not on ballot in 2010

US House – ALL OURS BABY!

State Senate – We actually added to our margin here in 2008 moving it from 18/17 to 20/15 and yep they are all up again in 2010. A chamber to watch but we should be ok in this increasingly reliable state.

State House – zzzzzzzzzz

Massachusetts – aka nothing to see here move right along!

Gubernatorial – zzzzzzzzzzzzzz

US Senate – Both Dems zzzzzzzzzzzz

US House – ALL OURS BABY! zzzzzzzzzzzzz

State Senate – zzzzzzzzzzzzz

State House – zzzzzzzzzzzzz

New Hampshire

Gubernatorial – If Dem Gov Lynch runs he will win. If, as I hope, Lynch runs for the Senate then look for 2nd CD Rep Hodes to run and win for team Blue instead. My how New Hampshire has quickly shifted to us.

US Senate – 1 Dem 1 Rep and the Rep is on the ballot – Judd Gregg. Gregg has a target on his back already and I expect either Gov Lynch or Rep Hodes to run and for this one to be a barn burner.

US House – ALL OURS BABY! – Keep an eye on NH-01

State Senate – No change in 2008 really locks in our 2006 gains.

State House – Nothing really to see here we held onto almost all of our 2006 gains, dropping from 231 to 225 out of 400 we will hang onto this one in 2010 IMHO.

New Jersey

Gubernatorial – On ballot in 2009 (Go Corzine). Any Dem would be favoured to win this one as NJ residents hate all their pols they just hate Democrats less than Republicans.

US Senate – Both Dems

US House –

NJ-02 – If State Senator Jeff Van Drew finally steps up and runs this race becomes very competitive. Hopefully he won’t wait until 2012. If State Sen Jim Whelan runs it could also get competitive in this district that I suspect Obama won and that Bush won by less than 1% in 2004. Will have a Cook Dem PVI.

NJ-04 – Gore carried this district and I think Obama only just fell short so a good candidate here is a must to get it on the radar instead of the second tier candidates we have run thus far.

NJ-05 – Gee I hope 2008 Dem candidate Dennis Shulman runs again in 2010. Holding a GOP incumbent to 56% in this reasonably strong GOP district is a fair effort. Otherwise this one won’t be on the radar in 2010.

NJ-07 – I don’t know what happened here this year but a top tier candidate who is NOT Linda Stender is required. This district is winnable particulalrly with a freshman GOP incumbent. I think Obama carried it also.

NJ-11 – The safest GOP district in NJ and a rarity in the Northeast, (outside Pennsylvania,) a generically safe GOP district. Short of a fantastic candidate this one won’t be on the radar.

Keep an eye on NJ-03.

State Senate – Up in 2011

State House – Up in 2009 zzzzzzzzzz

New York

Gubernatorial – zzzzzzzzzzz – Name one GOPper who could be elected statewide? – exactly.

US Senate – Both Dems. Despite Hillary’s appointment as SOS this one will be held by whichever Dem is appointed IMHO.

US House –

NY-03 – Pete King is genuinely popular in his district and we should be hoping that the rumours of him making a gubernatorial run turn out to be true. Otherwise we really do need a top tier candidate here – paging Tom Suozzi – but that is unlikely unless the seat is Open.

NY-23 – I expect McHugh to retire in 2010; call it a hunch. If so we will easily find a top tier candidate here otherwise McHugh is perceived as unbeatable.

NY-26 – Democrats in this District just got it wrong in the Primary and we need a top tier candidate against a freshman incumbent who only got 55% first time at bat.

Keep an eye on Dem incumbents in NY-24, NY-25 and NY-29.

State Senate – Yep we have just won control of this chamber for the first time in like 3 million years. It should be 32/30 or maybe 33/29 with one race still undecided. With them all up again in 2010 we need to look for GOP State Senators who are in heavily Democratic areas of NYC and unlikely to run again as they are now free of the influence of Joe Bruni (R-thug) who kept a number of GOP Senators in place long after they wanted to retire.

I think the following are potentially competitive races as open, specials or vulnerable incumbents in 2010:

NY SS-06 – GOP incumbent won with 51.5% of the vote in 2008.

NY SS-11 – Race still undecided if Repub incumbent wins it will be by less than 1000 votes.

NY SS-22 – GOP incumbent in heart of blue NYC.

NY SS-42 – GOP incumbent rumoured to be retiring mid-term.

NY SS-44 – GOP incumbent rumoured to be retiring mid-term.

NY SS-56 – GOP incumbent won with 52.2% of the vote.

NY SS-61 – GOP incumbent won with 53.5% of the vote.

Not to mention that an additional 4 or 5 GOP State Senators will be older than 70 in 2010.

State House – zzzzzzzzzzz

Pennsylvania

Gubernatorial – This one might get complicated. Dem Gov Ed Rendell is term limited and Dem Lt Gov Catherine Baker Knoll has just sadly passed away thus making State Senate President Pro Tempore Joe Scarnati the new Lt Gov and he is a Republican. Deep bench on our side including Senator Bob Casey? It goes without saying that the Repubs will have a top tier candidate also. This race makes me nervous as Pennsylvania is less reliably blue than any other state in the North East.

US Senate – 1 of ours (Casey), 1 of theirs (Specter) who is up in 2010. It has been suggested to me that Specter coud be approached to switch which would be fine by me but failing that we have a deep bench and this is a must win if we are to continue the blueing of the Northeast. Specter may yet decide to retire in which case we really are in the box seat for this race.

US House –

PA-05 – This central Pennsylvania district will not be on the radar unless we have an ultra conservative candidate. One of 4 super safe districts in the state for the Republicans.

PA-06 – As probably the single biggest recruiting miss of 2008 this one is infuriating. Gerlach was held to 52% by a 3rd tier candidate and Obama won every county that this district covers. It is also one of only 5 won by Kerry that is occupied by a GOP House Rep. Probably the highest priority house race for the DCCC on offense in the Northeast (open seats notwithstanding).

PA-09 – One of 4 super safe districts in the state for the Republicans. This central Pennsylvania district will not be on the radar unless we have an ultra conservative candidate. Yep just like PA-05.

PA-15 – Like PA-06 Obama carried every county in this one and yep it is also one of only 5 won by Kerry that is occupied by a GOP House Rep. Disappointing 41% for 2008 Dem candidate means we need a top tier challenger here ASAP.

PA-16 – Another super safe district for the GOP. Like the 5th and 9th unlikely to be a priority.

PA-18 – In theory could be vaguely competitive in 2010 (Bush only got 54% here in 2004) but unlikely given the low hanging fruit in the 6th and 15th.

PA-19 – Another super safe district for the GOP. Like the 5th, 6th and 16th unlikely to be a priority in 2010.

Watch Dem incumbents in PA-03 and PA-11.

State Senate – The only State chamber still controlled by the GOP in the Northeast. We actually went backwards there this year dropping from 21/28/1 to 20/29/1. And with only half of the State Senate up every two years this one is a hard one to flip in 2010. However the following should probably be targetted IMHO, particularly if they are open races:

PA SS-06 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama, incumbent got 53.4% in 2006.

PA SS-10 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama, incumbent got 51.5% in 2006.

PA SS-12 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama.

PA SS-16 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama, incumbent got 54.2% in 2006.

PA SS-20 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama.

PA SS-24 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama.

PA SS-26 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama, incumbent got 52.2% in 2006.

PA SS-44 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama.

PA SS-50 – Incumbent got 53.5% in 2006.

Now I am not suggesting that every State Senate race here will be competitive in 2010 as I understand that Blue counties can have Red parts, but if the Red parts of NYC can be turned then Red parts of Blue counties in PA can be turned also.

State House – In 2008 we managed to increase our margin of control from 102/101 to 104/99; still far too close for comfort. Vulnerable Repubs include:

PA SH-4 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama.

PA SH-13 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama.

PA SH-15 – Incumbent got 51.5% in 2008.

PA SH-18 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama.

PA SH-26 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama.

PA SH-28 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama.

PA SH-29 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama.

PA SH-30 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama.

PA SH-31 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama.

PA SH-44 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama.

PA SH-57 – Incumbent got 51.6% in 2008.

PA SH-61 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama.

PA SH-70 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama.

PA SH-75 – Incumbent got 53.3% in 2008.

PA SH-102 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama.

PA SH-104 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama.

PA SH-105 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama.

PA SH-106 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama.

PA SH-128 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama, incumbent got 51.8% in 2008.

PA SH-129 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama.

PA SH-131 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama.

PA SH-134 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama.

PA SH-138 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama.

PA SH-142 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama, incumbent got 51.7% in 2008.

PA SH-146 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama, incumbent got 53.3% in 2008.

PA SH-150 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama.

PA SH-152 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama.

PA SH-155 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama.

PA SH-157 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama.

PA SH-158 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama.

PA SH-160 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama.

PA SH-162 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama.

PA SH-163 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama.

PA SH-164 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama.

PA SH-165 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama.

PA SH-167 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama.

PA SH-168 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama.

PA SH-169 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama.

PA SH-170 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama.

PA SH-172 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama.

PA SH-176 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama.

PA SH-177 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama.

PA SH-178 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama.

PA SH-183 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama.

PA SH-187 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama, incumbent got 52.3% in 2008.

Now I am not suggesting that every State House race here will be competitive in 2010 as I understand that Blue counties can have Red parts, particularly given that State House districts are so small, but if the Red parts of NYC can be turned then Red parts of Blue counties in PA can be turned also. Yep the same thinking that applies to the PA State Senate.

Rhode Island

Gubernatorial – GOP Gov Don Carcieri is term limited! With a bench a mile deep we should be a lock to pick this one up as the GOP bench is almost non existent.

US Senate – Both Dems

US House – ALL OURS BABY!

State Senate – zzzzzzzzzzz

State House – zzzzzzzzzzz

Vermont

Gubernatorial – If GOP Gov Jim Douglas runs he wins I think. However if he runs for the Senate then we should win here EXCEPT for one nasty wrinkle. In Vermont the Progrssive Party frequently run in statewide races which not only splits the left of centre vote but often allows Republicans to get elected. Surely an accomodation must be able to be found to allow us to have a decent shot at this one in 2010. OTOH GOP Lt Gov Brian Dubie is almost the only statewide candidate that the GOP could present and he could make a race of it.

US Senate – Both Dems

US House – ALL OURS BABY!

State Senate – zzzzzzzzzzzz

State House – zzzzzzzzzzzz

What do you think?

The Northeast (Connecticut, Delaware, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, Rhode Island & Vermont) has been sharply trending towards the Democratic party for some years now. Increasingly at a State and Federal level Republicans are finding it harder to get elected in the Northeast, be they conservatives or moderates, particularly in statewide races. And this years election seems certain to thin out their ranks even further.

We now have 7/9 Governors, 14/18 Senators and 51/65 House Districts!

Below the line for a look at the 14 GOP held House Races in the Northeast in 2008.

Well now 14 members of that most endangered of species the Northeast House Republican. And can you believe 5 open races in more or less Democrat friendly districts – WOW!

And so on with the show:

CT-04 – D+5 – Shays

It is appropriate that the first race we look at is one of the most competitive, CT-04, pitting Chris Shays against our guy Jim Himes. This one will be a barnburner which makes it curious that I can’t find any polling of the district. Located in the Southwest part of the state it overlaps the New York media market and many people who live in the 4th commute to NYC for work.

As the only GOP survivor in New England Shays seems to be popular but as the Iraq war becomes increasingly unpopular Shays’ fervent support for the war and the President himself makes this one race to watch. Both candidates are cashed up and either could win.

CT-04 is one of 8 districts carried by Kerry in 2004 occupied by a House Republican.  

DE-AL – D+7 – Castle

GOP incumbent Mike Castle is considered safe and I see no reason to not beileve that. Whilst Dem Karen Hartley-Nagle will run a solid campaign this district is unlikely to flip this time around. Of more interest to me is whether Castle will switch parties after the election or retire in 2010 (He had a stroke in 2006). Or if Lt Gov John Carney or Attorney General Beau Biden have a crack Castle may be vulnerable if he runs again in 2010.

DE-AL is another of the 8 districts that Kerry carried in 2004 occupied by a House Republican and in fact this is the district with the highest Kerry vote – 57% – occupied by a Republican.

NJ-02 – D+4.0 – LoBiondo

LoBiondo doged a bullet when Democratic State Senator Jeff Van Drew opted not to run against him in this district that Bush won by less than 1% and that is occupied by 2 Democratic State Senators.

Our candidate David Kurkowski will have a real slog to get this race on the radar with the open races in the 3rd and 7th. Look for Van Drew to run and win in 2010.

NJ-03 – D+3.3 – OPEN

The first of our open races this one sees Democratic State Senator John Adler running against Chris Myers. Bush won this district 51-49 and Adler has a massive COH advantage – 1.46M to 155K. Polling indicates a tight race but I expect Adler to win comfortably as he is well known through the district and genuinely popular.

NJ-04 – R+0.9 – Smith

This central Jersey district was won by Bush in 2004 56 to 44 but was won by Gore in 2000 50 to 46. With a plethora of other competitive races around this one has not been on the radar and probably won’t be. Josh Zeitz is to be applauded for having a go but 2008 probably won’t be his year. 2010 maybe?

NJ-05 – R+4 – Garrett

A district that shouldn’t be on the radar is so largely because our guy Dennis Shulman is a blind rabbi who has been getting a lot of media attention. Won by Bush in 2004 57-43 this is one of two districts in New Jersey that are considered generically safe for Repubs. If Shulman can pull it off then expect a lot of house districts to be picked up by us on election day. Shulman is down 3 to 1 in COH which is ok but he really needs to step up the fundraising.

NJ-07 – R+1 – OPEN

Another open race this one pits 2006 candidate Democrat Linda Stender against State Senator Leonard Lance. Michael Hsing, a conservative republican is also running as an independent which will take votes from Lance. Both camps have released polls that show their candidate is winning. Despite the fact that Bush won this district 53-47 in 2004 I expect Stender to win at her second time at bat as she only lost by about 1000 votes in 2006. Stender has a massive COH advantage – 1.2M-88K btw and that can only help!

NJ-11 – R+6 – Frelinghuysen

This district that Bush won 58-42 in 2004 is the safest GOP in New Jersey and unlikely to flip. Our guy, 2006 candidate Tom Wyka, is putting in a valiant effort but will most likely fall short. This district is a rarity in the Northeast, a safe GOP district.

NY-03 – D+2.1 – King

This Long Island based district is not on the radar for 2008. Democrat Graham Long hasn’t set the world on fire and won’t with all of the oxygen being sucked up by the 13th. This race may have been competitive if 2006 candidate Dave Mejias had run again be he is running for the State Senate instead 🙁 Look for Nassau County Executive Tom Suozzi or Mejias to run in 2010. King has said that he will running in the gubernatorial race in 2010 so we should pick this one up then.

NY-13 – D+1 – OPEN

No race in the country has been more of a soap opera than NY-13. I will spare you the details and say simply this. Democratic candidate Michael McMahon will win and win big over a divided dispirited Republican party and their 3rd tier candidate. McMahon is even endorsed by GOP powerbroker Guy Molinari. And he lives on Staten Island a vital prerequisite in this district unlike his republican opponent. Chalk this one up as a win for team blue.

NY-23 – R+0.2 – McHugh

John McHugh is a safe bet for re-election here over a low profile candidate, Mile Oot. The attenton in upstate New York will all be focused on the 25th, 26th and 29th. Sheesh even the unions endorse McHugh who seems genuinely popular. He was rumoured to be retiring in 2008 and may do so in 2010. Either way expect a competitive race here in 2010 not 2008.

NY-25 – D+3 – OPEN

Democrat Dan Maffei never stopped running since 2006 and is considered very likely to win this open seat over Republican Dale Sweetland. He has about $1M COH and of course upstate New York is rapidly bluing. The one poll I have seen had Maffei only a point in front but that was back in April. I think that the NRCC has given up here and with good reason, Dan’s gonna win. NY-25 is one of 8 districts carried by Kerry in 2004 occupied by a House Republican.  

NY-26 – R+3 – OPEN

There was a huge shock here when Democrat Kryzan won a bloody primary over DCCC preferred Jon Powers. Nonetheless Kryzan came out reasonably clean and may well pull it off in a district where Bush won 55-43 in 2004. Kryzan needs to step up her fundraising a lot but again the DCCC has weighed with advertising expenditure. When we see some polling we will get a better sense of how this one is playing but this district is still very much in play as Gopper Chris Lee hasn’t exactly set the world on fire. Watch this space.

NY-29 – R+5 – Kuhl

Democratic 2006 candidate Eric Massa is back for a rematch in this upstate district that is the most GOP friendly district in New York. Bush won 56-42 in 2004. Don’t discount Massa though as incumbent Randy “shotgun” Kuhl is certainly vulnerable (and repellant). Haven’t seen any public polling here but the candidates are basically at parity in terms of COH and the DCCC is stumping up for advertising big time. Expect a close race.

So whilst the Northeast won’t provide much excitement at the Presidential level this year the House races (and Senate BTW) will be all the fun of the fair. I think that we will probably win between 4 and 7 of these races further decimating an already shredded GOP. The Northeast is well on the way to becoming a one party region and this year will see further shifts in that direction.

Candidate filing is now complete and whilst we won’t do as well as 2006 we still have candidates in 421 districts. Oh yeh and I am flying over from Australia in 10 days to spend the rest of the campaign volunteering for a house candidate!

Below the fold for details and once again go and take a look at the 2008 Race Tracker Wiki.  

***I have included Cook PVI numbers where possible after blogger requests to do so!***

421 races filled! This of course includes 236 districts held by Democratic Congresscritters.

But we also have 185 GOP held districts with confirmed Democratic opponents.

So here is where we are at (GOP Districts):

Districts with confirmed candidates – 185

Districts with unconfirmed candidates – 0

Districts with rumoured candidates – 0

Districts without any candidates – 0

Filing closed – No Democratic candidate – 14

The GOP held districts with confirmed Democratic challengers are as follows:

AL-02 – R+13,

AL-03 – R+4,

AL-04 – R+16,

AK-AL – R+14,

AZ-01 – R+2,

AZ-02 – R+9,

AZ-03 – R+6,

AZ-06 – R+12,

CA-02 – R+13,

CA-03 – R+7,

CA-04 – R+11,

CA-21 – R+13,

CA-24 – R+5,

CA-25 – R+7,

CA-26 – R+4,

CA-40 – R+8,

CA-41 – R+9,

CA-42 – R+10,

CA-44 – R+6,

CA-45 – R+3,

CA-46 – R+6,

CA-48 – R+8,

CA-49 – R+10,

CA-50 – R+5,

CA-52 – R+9,

CO-04 – R+9,

CO-05 – R+15.7,

CO-06 – R+10,

CT-04 – D+5,

DE-AL – D+7,

FL-01 – R+19,

FL-04 – R+16,

FL-05 – R+5,

FL-06 – R+8,

FL-07 – R+3,

FL-08 – R+3,

FL-09 – R+4,

FL-10 – D+1,

FL-12 – R+5,

FL-13 – R+4,

FL-14 – R+10,

FL-15 – R+4,

FL-18 – R+4,

FL-21 – R+6,

FL-24 – R+3,

FL-25 – R+4,

GA-01 – R+?,

GA-03 – R+?,

GA-06 – R+?,

GA-07 – R+?,

GA-09 – R+?,

GA-10 – R+?,

GA-11 – R+?,

ID-01 – R+19,

ID-02 – R+19,

IL-06 – R+2.9,

IL-10 – D+4,

IL-11 – R+1.1,

IL-13 – R+5,

IL-15 – R+6,

IL-16 – R+4,

IL-18 – R+5.5,

IL-19 – R+8,

IN-03 – R+16,

IN-04 – R+17,

IN-05 – R+20,

IN-06 – R+11,

IA-04 – D+0,

IA-05 – R+8,

KS-01 – R+20,

KS-04 – R+12,

KY-01 – R+10,

KY-02 – R+12.9,

KY-04 – R+11.7,

LA-01 – R+18,

LA-04 – R+7,

LA-07 – R+7,

MD-01 – R+10,

MD-06 – R+13,

MI-02 – R+9,

MI-03 – R+9,

MI-04 – R+3,

MI-06 – R+2.3,

MI-07 – R+2,

MI-08 – R+1.9,

MI-09 – R+0,

MI-10 – R+4,

MI-11 – R+1.2,

MN-02 – R+2.7,

MN-03 – R+0.5,

MN-06 – R+5,

MO-02 – R+9,

MO-06 – R+5,

MO-07 – R+14,

MO-08 – R+11,

MO-09 – R+7,

MS-03 – R+14,

MT-AL – R+11,

NE-01 – R+11,

NE-02 – R+9,

NE-03 – R+23.6,

NV-02 – R+8.2,

NV-03 – D+1,

NJ-02 – D+4.0,

NJ-03 – D+3.3,

NJ-04 – R+0.9,

NJ-05 – R+4,

NJ-07 – R+1,

NJ-11 – R+6,

NM-01 – D+2,

NM-02 – R+6,

NY-03 – D+2.1,

NY-13 – D+1,

NY-23 – R+0.2,

NY-25 – D+3,

NY-26 – R+3,

NY-29 – R+5,

NC-03 – R+15,

NC-05 – R+15,

NC-06 – R+17,

NC-08 – R+3,

NC-09 – R+12,

NC-10 – R+15,

OH-01 – R+1,

OH-02 – R+13,

OH-03 – R+3,

OH-04 – R+14,

OH-05 – R+10,

OH-07 – R+6,

OH-08 – R+12,

OH-12 – R+0.7,

OH-14 – R+2,

OH-15 – R+1,

OH-16 – R+4,

OK-01 – R+13,

OK-03 – R+18,

OK-04 – R+13,

OK-05 – R+12,

OR-02 – R+11,

PA-03 – R+2,

PA-05 – R+10,

PA-06 – D+2.2,

PA-09 – R+15,

PA-15 – D+2,

PA-16 – R+11,

PA-18 – R+2,

PA-19 – R+12,

SC-01 – R+10,

SC-02 – R+9,

SC-03 – R+14,

SC-04 – R+15,

TN-01 – R+14,

TN-02 – R+11,

TN-03 – R+8,

TN-07 – R+12,

TX-03 – R+17,

TX-04 – R+17,

TX-06 – R+15,

TX-07 – R+16,

TX-08 – R+20,

TX-10 – R+13,

TX-12 – R+14,

TX-13 – R+18,

TX-19 – R+25,

TX-24 – R+15,

TX-26 – R+12,

TX-31 – R+15,

TX-32 – R+11,

UT-01 – R+26,

UT-03 – R+22,

VA-01 – R+9,

VA-02 – R+5.9,

VA-04 – R+5,

VA-05 – R+6,

VA-06 – R+11,

VA-07 – R+11,

VA-10 – R+5,

VA-11 – R+1,

WA-04 – R+13,

WA-05 – R+7.1,

WA-08 – D+2,

WV-02 – R+5,

WI-01 – R+2,

WI-06 – R+5,

WY-AL – R+19,

The following GOP held districts have a candidate that is expected to run but is yet to confirm:

None

The following GOP held districts have rumoured candidates – please note that some of these “rumours” are extremely tenuous!

None

The following districts have not a single rumoured candidate:

None

And last but not least the list I did not want to have to include.

The following Republicans will not have a Democratic opponent in 2008:

AL-01 – R+12,

Our candidate withdrew.

AL-06 – R+25,

No candidate for the second election in a row.

AR-03 – R+11,

Our candidatre withdrew all Arkansas incumbents unopposed (3D, 1R and Democrtaic Senator Mark Pryor).

CA-19 – R+10,

Our candidate withdrew.

CA-22 – R+16,

No candidate appeared.

KY-05 – R+8,

Our candidate withdrew to run in the Senate Primary (He got trounced).

LA-05 – R+10,

Our likely candidate declined to run.

TX-01 – R+17,

Our 2006 candidate is running as an Independent.

TX-02 – R+12,

A candidate set up an exploratory committee but did not go on with it.

TX-05 – R+16,

Our candidate didn’t file.

TX-11 – R+25,

Our candidate filed too late.

TX-14 – R+14,

Our candidate switched parties!

TX-21 – R+13,

A candidate filed with the FEC but then didn’t file with the SOS.

WI-05 – R+12,

Our candidate withdrew.

So there you go :). 421 is still a fantastic effort but gee it could have easily been 430+.

As for me I will be spending the last five weeks of the campaign volunteering for Dan Seals in IL-10 (Yeh my version of a holiday), followed by a couple of weeks in NYC hanging out and playing tourist.

The first 2010 House diary will be posted in January with a lot less than 199 GOP districts to find candidates for

Go Obama!!!

Benawu

Candidate filing is now almost complete and whilst we won’t do as well as 2006 we still have candidates in at least 420 districts.

Below the fold for details and once again go and take a look at the 2008 Race Tracker Wiki.  

***I have included Cook PVI numbers where possible after blogger requests to do so!***

3 more House races have a Democratic candidate that has filed in the last three weeks:

LA-01 – R+18,

LA-07 – R+7,

NY-03 – D+2.1,

But two more races go back to being uncontested:

AL-01 – R+12, (Our candidate withdrew but it is my understanding that the party can nominate a replacement!)

VA-01 – R+9, (Our candidate has suspended his campaign. If he withdraws the party can nominate a replacement apparently.)

And two more races will not have a democratic candidate on the ballot in November:

LA-05 – R+10,

WI-05 – R+12,

So 420 races filled! This of course includes 236 districts held by Democratic Congresscritters.

But we also have 184 GOP held districts with confirmed Democratic opponents.

So here is where we are at (GOP Districts):

Districts with confirmed candidates – 184

Districts with unconfirmed candidates – 0

Districts with rumoured candidates – 1

Districts without any candidates – 1

Filing closed – No Democratic candidate – 13

The GOP held districts with confirmed Democratic challengers are as follows:

AL-02 – R+13,

AL-03 – R+4,

AL-04 – R+16,

AK-AL – R+14,

AZ-01 – R+2,

AZ-02 – R+9,

AZ-03 – R+6,

AZ-06 – R+12,

CA-02 – R+13,

CA-03 – R+7,

CA-04 – R+11,

CA-21 – R+13,

CA-24 – R+5,

CA-25 – R+7,

CA-26 – R+4,

CA-40 – R+8,

CA-41 – R+9,

CA-42 – R+10,

CA-44 – R+6,

CA-45 – R+3,

CA-46 – R+6,

CA-48 – R+8,

CA-49 – R+10,

CA-50 – R+5,

CA-52 – R+9,

CO-04 – R+9,

CO-05 – R+15.7,

CO-06 – R+10,

CT-04 – D+5,

DE-AL – D+7,

FL-01 – R+19,

FL-04 – R+16,

FL-05 – R+5,

FL-06 – R+8,

FL-07 – R+3,

FL-08 – R+3,

FL-09 – R+4,

FL-10 – D+1,

FL-12 – R+5,

FL-13 – R+4,

FL-14 – R+10,

FL-15 – R+4,

FL-18 – R+4,

FL-21 – R+6,

FL-24 – R+3,

FL-25 – R+4,

GA-01 – R+?,

GA-03 – R+?,

GA-06 – R+?,

GA-07 – R+?,

GA-09 – R+?,

GA-10 – R+?,

GA-11 – R+?,

ID-01 – R+19,

ID-02 – R+19,

IL-06 – R+2.9,

IL-10 – D+4,

IL-11 – R+1.1,

IL-13 – R+5,

IL-15 – R+6,

IL-16 – R+4,

IL-18 – R+5.5,

IL-19 – R+8,

IN-03 – R+16,

IN-04 – R+17,

IN-05 – R+20,

IN-06 – R+11,

IA-04 – D+0,

IA-05 – R+8,

KS-01 – R+20,

KS-04 – R+12,

KY-01 – R+10,

KY-02 – R+12.9,

KY-04 – R+11.7,

LA-01 – R+18,

LA-04 – R+7,

LA-07 – R+7,

MD-01 – R+10,

MD-06 – R+13,

MI-02 – R+9,

MI-03 – R+9,

MI-04 – R+3,

MI-06 – R+2.3,

MI-07 – R+2,

MI-08 – R+1.9,

MI-09 – R+0,

MI-10 – R+4,

MI-11 – R+1.2,

MN-02 – R+2.7,

MN-03 – R+0.5,

MN-06 – R+5,

MO-02 – R+9,

MO-06 – R+5,

MO-07 – R+14,

MO-08 – R+11,

MO-09 – R+7,

MS-03 – R+14,

MT-AL – R+11,

NE-01 – R+11,

NE-02 – R+9,

NE-03 – R+23.6,

NV-02 – R+8.2,

NV-03 – D+1,

NJ-02 – D+4.0,

NJ-03 – D+3.3,

NJ-04 – R+0.9,

NJ-05 – R+4,

NJ-07 – R+1,

NJ-11 – R+6,

NM-01 – D+2,

NM-02 – R+6,

NY-03 – D+2.1,

NY-13 – D+1,

NY-23 – R+0.2,

NY-25 – D+3,

NY-26 – R+3,

NY-29 – R+5,

NC-03 – R+15,

NC-05 – R+15,

NC-06 – R+17,

NC-08 – R+3,

NC-09 – R+12,

NC-10 – R+15,

OH-01 – R+1,

OH-02 – R+13,

OH-03 – R+3,

OH-04 – R+14,

OH-05 – R+10,

OH-07 – R+6,

OH-08 – R+12,

OH-12 – R+0.7,

OH-14 – R+2,

OH-15 – R+1,

OH-16 – R+4,

OK-01 – R+13,

OK-03 – R+18,

OK-04 – R+13,

OK-05 – R+12,

OR-02 – R+11,

PA-03 – R+2,

PA-05 – R+10,

PA-06 – D+2.2,

PA-09 – R+15,

PA-15 – D+2,

PA-16 – R+11,

PA-18 – R+2,

PA-19 – R+12,

SC-01 – R+10,

SC-02 – R+9,

SC-03 – R+14,

SC-04 – R+15,

TN-01 – R+14,

TN-02 – R+11,

TN-03 – R+8,

TN-07 – R+12,

TX-03 – R+17,

TX-04 – R+17,

TX-06 – R+15,

TX-07 – R+16,

TX-08 – R+20,

TX-10 – R+13,

TX-12 – R+14,

TX-13 – R+18,

TX-19 – R+25,

TX-24 – R+15,

TX-26 – R+12,

TX-31 – R+15,

TX-32 – R+11,

UT-01 – R+26,

UT-03 – R+22,

VA-02 – R+5.9,

VA-04 – R+5,

VA-05 – R+6,

VA-06 – R+11,

VA-07 – R+11,

VA-10 – R+5,

VA-11 – R+1,

WA-04 – R+13,

WA-05 – R+7.1,

WA-08 – D+2,

WV-02 – R+5,

WI-01 – R+2,

WI-06 – R+5,

WY-AL – R+19,

The following GOP held districts have a candidate that is expected to run but is yet to confirm:

None at this stage

The following GOP held districts have rumoured candidates – please note that some of these “rumours” are extremely tenuous!

VA-01 – R+9,

The following districts have not a single rumoured candidate:

AL-01 – R+12,

And last but not least the list I did not want to have to include.

The following Republicans will not have a Democratic opponent in 2008:

AL-06 – R+25,

AR-03 – R+11,

CA-19 – R+10,

CA-22 – R+16,

KY-05 – R+8

LA-05 – R+10,

TX-01 – R+17,

TX-02 – R+12,

TX-05 – R+16,

TX-11 – R+25,

TX-14 – R+14,

TX-21 – R+13,

WI-05 – R+12,

Finally due praise to those states where we have a full slate of house candidates – Alaska, Arizona, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Florida, Georgia, Hawaii, Idaho, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Massachusetts, Maryland, Michigan, Minnesota, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, North Carolina, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennesee, Utah, Vermont, Washington, West Virginia and Wyoming.

Thats 42 states with a full slate!

There are also 6 states where filing has closed where we do not have a full slate: Arkansas, California, Kentucky, Louisiana, Wisconsin and of course Texas.

It is also great to see candidates in AZ-06, CA-42, FL-12, LA-06, MS-03, VA-04, VA-06 and WI-06; 8 of 10 districts we did not contest in 2006! The other 2, TX-11 and AL-06, will again go uncontested by Team Blue in 2008.

With 13 uncontested Republicans we will not reach our great 2006 effort of 425 races filled but we will do really well nonetheless.

*** Tips, rumours and what not in the comments please.***

Candidate filing is sailing along with lots of states now having completed candidate filings and others with a full slate of Democratic House candidate long before filings close.

Below the fold for details and once again go and take a look at the 2008 Race Tracker Wiki.  

***I have included Cook PVI numbers where possible after blogger requests to do so!***

3 more House races have a Democratic candidate that has filed in the last three weeks:

OK-01 – R+13,

OK-03 – R+18,

OK-04 – R+13,

But one race goes back to uncontested:

LA-01 – R+18,

So 419 races filled! This of course includes 236 districts held by Democratic Congresscritters.

But we also have 183 GOP held districts with confirmed Democratic opponents.

So here is where we are at (GOP Districts):

Districts with confirmed candidates – 183

Districts with unconfirmed candidates – 0

Districts with rumoured candidates – 2

Districts without any candidates – 3

Filing closed – No Democratic candidate – 11

The GOP held districts with confirmed Democratic challengers are as follows:

AL-01 – R+12,

AL-02 – R+13,

AL-03 – R+4,

AL-04 – R+16,

AK-AL – R+14,

AZ-01 – R+2,

AZ-02 – R+9,

AZ-03 – R+6,

AZ-06 – R+12,

CA-02 – R+13,

CA-03 – R+7,

CA-04 – R+11,

CA-21 – R+13,

CA-24 – R+5,

CA-25 – R+7,

CA-26 – R+4,

CA-40 – R+8,

CA-41 – R+9,

CA-42 – R+10,

CA-44 – R+6,

CA-45 – R+3,

CA-46 – R+6,

CA-48 – R+8,

CA-49 – R+10,

CA-50 – R+5,

CA-52 – R+9,

CO-04 – R+9,

CO-05 – R+15.7,

CO-06 – R+10,

CT-04 – D+5,

DE-AL – D+7,

FL-01 – R+19,

FL-04 – R+16,

FL-05 – R+5,

FL-06 – R+8,

FL-07 – R+3,

FL-08 – R+3,

FL-09 – R+4,

FL-10 – D+1,

FL-12 – R+5,

FL-13 – R+4,

FL-14 – R+10,

FL-15 – R+4,

FL-18 – R+4,

FL-21 – R+6,

FL-24 – R+3,

FL-25 – R+4,

GA-01 – R+?,

GA-03 – R+?,

GA-06 – R+?,

GA-07 – R+?,

GA-09 – R+?,

GA-10 – R+?,

GA-11 – R+?,

ID-01 – R+19,

ID-02 – R+19,

IL-06 – R+2.9,

IL-10 – D+4,

IL-11 – R+1.1,

IL-13 – R+5,

IL-15 – R+6,

IL-16 – R+4,

IL-18 – R+5.5,

IL-19 – R+8,

IN-03 – R+16,

IN-04 – R+17,

IN-05 – R+20,

IN-06 – R+11,

IA-04 – D+0,

IA-05 – R+8,

KS-01 – R+20,

KS-04 – R+12,

KY-01 – R+10,

KY-02 – R+12.9,

KY-04 – R+11.7,

LA-04 – R+7,

MD-01 – R+10,

MD-06 – R+13,

MI-02 – R+9,

MI-03 – R+9,

MI-04 – R+3,

MI-06 – R+2.3,

MI-07 – R+2,

MI-08 – R+1.9,

MI-09 – R+0,

MI-10 – R+4,

MI-11 – R+1.2,

MN-02 – R+2.7,

MN-03 – R+0.5,

MN-06 – R+5,

MO-02 – R+9,

MO-06 – R+5,

MO-07 – R+14,

MO-08 – R+11,

MO-09 – R+7,

MS-03 – R+14,

MT-AL – R+11,

NE-01 – R+11,

NE-02 – R+9,

NE-03 – R+23.6,

NV-02 – R+8.2,

NV-03 – D+1,

NJ-02 – D+4.0,

NJ-03 – D+3.3,

NJ-04 – R+0.9,

NJ-05 – R+4,

NJ-07 – R+1,

NJ-11 – R+6,

NM-01 – D+2,

NM-02 – R+6,

NY-13 – D+1,

NY-23 – R+0.2,

NY-25 – D+3,

NY-26 – R+3,

NY-29 – R+5,

NC-03 – R+15,

NC-05 – R+15,

NC-06 – R+17,

NC-08 – R+3,

NC-09 – R+12,

NC-10 – R+15,

OH-01 – R+1,

OH-02 – R+13,

OH-03 – R+3,

OH-04 – R+14,

OH-05 – R+10,

OH-07 – R+6,

OH-08 – R+12,

OH-12 – R+0.7,

OH-14 – R+2,

OH-15 – R+1,

OH-16 – R+4,

OK-01 – R+13,

OK-03 – R+18,

OK-04 – R+13,

OK-05 – R+12,

OR-02 – R+11,

PA-03 – R+2,

PA-05 – R+10,

PA-06 – D+2.2,

PA-09 – R+15,

PA-15 – D+2,

PA-16 – R+11,

PA-18 – R+2,

PA-19 – R+12,

SC-01 – R+10,

SC-02 – R+9,

SC-03 – R+14,

SC-04 – R+15,

TN-01 – R+14,

TN-02 – R+11,

TN-03 – R+8,

TN-07 – R+12,

TX-03 – R+17,

TX-04 – R+17,

TX-06 – R+15,

TX-07 – R+16,

TX-08 – R+20,

TX-10 – R+13,

TX-12 – R+14,

TX-13 – R+18,

TX-19 – R+25,

TX-24 – R+15,

TX-26 – R+12,

TX-31 – R+15,

TX-32 – R+11,

UT-01 – R+26,

UT-03 – R+22,

VA-01 – R+9,

VA-02 – R+5.9,

VA-04 – R+5,

VA-05 – R+6,

VA-06 – R+11,

VA-07 – R+11,

VA-10 – R+5,

VA-11 – R+1,

WA-04 – R+13,

WA-05 – R+7.1,

WA-08 – D+2,

WV-02 – R+5,

WI-01 – R+2,

WI-06 – R+5,

WY-AL – R+19,

The following GOP held districts have a candidate that is expected to run but is yet to confirm:

None at this stage

The following GOP held districts have rumoured candidates – please note that some of these “rumours” are extremely tenuous!

LA-07 – R+7,

NY-03 – D+2.1,

The following districts have not a single rumoured candidate:

LA-01 – R+18,

LA-05 – R+10,

WI-05 – R+12,

And last but not least the list I did not want to have to include.

The following Republicans will not have a Democratic opponent in 2008:

AL-06 – R+25,

AR-03 – R+11,

CA-19 – R+10,

CA-22 – R+16,

KY-05 – R+8

TX-01 – R+17,

TX-02 – R+12,

TX-05 – R+16,

TX-11 – R+25,

TX-14 – R+14,

TX-21 – R+13,

Finally due praise to those states where we have a full slate of house candidates – Alaska, Arizona, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Florida, Georgia, Hawaii, Idaho, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Massachusetts, Maryland, Michigan, Minnesota, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New Mexico, North Carolina, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennesee, Utah, Vermont, Virginia, Washington, West Virginia and Wyoming.

It is also interesting to note that we have only one race left to fill in New York and Wisconsin. Thats 42 states with a full slate, and 2 states with one race to fill!  

There are also 5 states where filing has closed where we do not have a full slate: Arkansas, Alabama, California, Kentucky and of course Texas. Lets hope the last 3 –  Louisiana, New York and Wisconsin fill out.

Please note that in some races others at the racetracker site have confirmed candidates that I haven’t. This is because to satisfy me a confirmed candidate has either filed with the FEC, The Sec of State or has an active campaign website, or even if they come and blog and say yep I am running. Others are not so rigorous.

It is also great to see candidates in AZ-06, CA-42, FL-12, LA-06, MS-03, VA-04, VA-06 and WI-06; 8 of 10 districts we did not contest in 2006! The other 2, TX-11 and AL-06, will again go uncontested by Team Blue in 2008.

With 11 uncontested Republicans we will not reach our great 2006 effort of 425 races filled but we will do really well nonetheless.

*** Tips, rumours and what not in the comments please.***

Candidate filing is sailing along with lots of states now having completed candidate filings and others with a full slate of Democratic House candidate long before filings close.

Below the fold for details and once again go and take a look at the 2008 Race Tracker Wiki.  

***I have included Cook PVI numbers where possible after blogger requests to do so!***

3 more House races have a Democratic candidate that has filed in the last two weeks:

MI-03 – R+9,

MI-06 – R+2.3,

MI-10 – R+4,

And one race comes off the list entirely!:

MS-01 – R+10, following Travis Childers superb special election victory!

So 417 races filled! This of course includes 236 districts held by Democratic Congresscritters.

But we also have 181 GOP held districts with confirmed Democratic opponents.

So here is where we are at (GOP Districts):

Districts with confirmed candidates – 181

Districts with unconfirmed candidates – 0

Districts with rumoured candidates – 4

Districts without any candidates – 3

Filing closed – No Democratic candidate – 11

The GOP held districts with confirmed Democratic challengers are as follows:

AL-01 – R+12,

AL-02 – R+13,

AL-03 – R+4,

AL-04 – R+16,

AK-AL – R+14,

AZ-01 – R+2,

AZ-02 – R+9,

AZ-03 – R+6,

AZ-06 – R+12,

CA-02 – R+13,

CA-03 – R+7,

CA-04 – R+11,

CA-21 – R+13,

CA-24 – R+5,

CA-25 – R+7,

CA-26 – R+4,

CA-40 – R+8,

CA-41 – R+9,

CA-42 – R+10,

CA-44 – R+6,

CA-45 – R+3,

CA-46 – R+6,

CA-48 – R+8,

CA-49 – R+10,

CA-50 – R+5,

CA-52 – R+9,

CO-04 – R+9,

CO-05 – R+15.7,

CO-06 – R+10,

CT-04 – D+5,

DE-AL – D+7,

FL-01 – R+19,

FL-04 – R+16,

FL-05 – R+5,

FL-06 – R+8,

FL-07 – R+3,

FL-08 – R+3,

FL-09 – R+4,

FL-10 – D+1,

FL-12 – R+5,

FL-13 – R+4,

FL-14 – R+10,

FL-15 – R+4,

FL-18 – R+4,

FL-21 – R+6,

FL-24 – R+3,

FL-25 – R+4,

GA-01 – R+?,

GA-03 – R+?,

GA-06 – R+?,

GA-07 – R+?,

GA-09 – R+?,

GA-10 – R+?,

GA-11 – R+?,

ID-01 – R+19,

ID-02 – R+19,

IL-06 – R+2.9,

IL-10 – D+4,

IL-11 – R+1.1,

IL-13 – R+5,

IL-15 – R+6,

IL-16 – R+4,

IL-18 – R+5.5,

IL-19 – R+8,

IN-03 – R+16,

IN-04 – R+17,

IN-05 – R+20,

IN-06 – R+11,

IA-04 – D+0,

IA-05 – R+8,

KS-01 – R+20,

KS-04 – R+12,

KY-01 – R+10,

KY-02 – R+12.9,

KY-04 – R+11.7,

LA-01 – R+18,

LA-04 – R+7,

MD-01 – R+10,

MD-06 – R+13,

MI-02 – R+9,

MI-03 – R+9,

MI-04 – R+3,

MI-06 – R+2.3,

MI-07 – R+2,

MI-08 – R+1.9,

MI-09 – R+0,

MI-10 – R+4,

MI-11 – R+1.2,

MN-02 – R+2.7,

MN-03 – R+0.5,

MN-06 – R+5,

MO-02 – R+9,

MO-06 – R+5,

MO-07 – R+14,

MO-08 – R+11,

MO-09 – R+7,

MS-03 – R+14,

MT-AL – R+11,

NE-01 – R+11,

NE-02 – R+9,

NE-03 – R+23.6,

NV-02 – R+8.2,

NV-03 – D+1,

NJ-02 – D+4.0,

NJ-03 – D+3.3,

NJ-04 – R+0.9,

NJ-05 – R+4,

NJ-07 – R+1,

NJ-11 – R+6,

NM-01 – D+2,

NM-02 – R+6,

NY-13 – D+1,

NY-23 – R+0.2,

NY-25 – D+3,

NY-26 – R+3,

NY-29 – R+5,

NC-03 – R+15,

NC-05 – R+15,

NC-06 – R+17,

NC-08 – R+3,

NC-09 – R+12,

NC-10 – R+15,

OH-01 – R+1,

OH-02 – R+13,

OH-03 – R+3,

OH-04 – R+14,

OH-05 – R+10,

OH-07 – R+6,

OH-08 – R+12,

OH-12 – R+0.7,

OH-14 – R+2,

OH-15 – R+1,

OH-16 – R+4,

OK-05 – R+12,

OR-02 – R+11,

PA-03 – R+2,

PA-05 – R+10,

PA-06 – D+2.2,

PA-09 – R+15,

PA-15 – D+2,

PA-16 – R+11,

PA-18 – R+2,

PA-19 – R+12,

SC-01 – R+10,

SC-02 – R+9,

SC-03 – R+14,

SC-04 – R+15,

TN-01 – R+14,

TN-02 – R+11,

TN-03 – R+8,

TN-07 – R+12,

TX-03 – R+17,

TX-04 – R+17,

TX-06 – R+15,

TX-07 – R+16,

TX-08 – R+20,

TX-10 – R+13,

TX-12 – R+14,

TX-13 – R+18,

TX-19 – R+25,

TX-24 – R+15,

TX-26 – R+12,

TX-31 – R+15,

TX-32 – R+11,

UT-01 – R+26,

UT-03 – R+22,

VA-01 – R+9,

VA-02 – R+5.9,

VA-04 – R+5,

VA-05 – R+6,

VA-06 – R+11,

VA-07 – R+11,

VA-10 – R+5,

VA-11 – R+1,

WA-04 – R+13,

WA-05 – R+7.1,

WA-08 – D+2,

WV-02 – R+5,

WI-01 – R+2,

WI-06 – R+5,

WY-AL – R+19,

The following GOP held districts have a candidate that is expected to run but is yet to confirm:

None at this stage

The following GOP held districts have rumoured candidates – please note that some of these “rumours” are extremely tenuous!

LA-07 – R+7,

NY-03 – D+2.1,

OK-03 – R+18,

OK-04 – R+13,

The following districts have not a single rumoured candidate:

LA-05 – R+10,

OK-01 – R+13,

WI-05 – R+12,

And last but not least the list I did not want to have to include.

The following Republicans will not have a Democratic opponent in 2008:

AL-06 – R+25,

AR-03 – R+11,

CA-19 – R+10,

CA-22 – R+16,

KY-05 – R+8

TX-01 – R+17,

TX-02 – R+12,

TX-05 – R+16,

TX-11 – R+25,

TX-14 – R+14,

TX-21 – R+13,

Finally due praise to those states where we have a full slate of house candidates – Alaska, Arizona, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Florida, Georgia, Hawaii, Idaho, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Massachusetts, Maryland, Michigan, Minnesota, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New Mexico, North Carolina, North Dakota, Ohio, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennesee, Utah, Vermont, Virginia, Washington, West Virginia and Wyoming.

It is also interesting to note that we have only one race left to fill in New York and Wisconsin. Thats 41 states with a full slate, and 2 states with one race to fill!  

There are also 5 states where filing has closed where we do not have a full slate: Arkansas, Alabama, California, Kentucky and of course Texas. Lets hope the last 4 –  Louisiana, New York, Oklahoma and Wisconsin fill out.

Please note that in some races others at the racetracker site have confirmed candidates that I haven’t. This is because to satisfy me a confirmed candidate has either filed with the FEC, The Sec of State or has an active campaign website, or even if they come and blog and say yep I am running. Others are not so rigorous.

It is also great to see candidates in AZ-06, CA-42, FL-12, LA-06, MS-03, VA-04, VA-06 and WI-06; 8 of 10 districts we did not contest in 2006! The other 2, TX-11 and AL-06, will again go uncontested by Team Blue in 2008.

With 11 uncontested Republicans we will not reach our great 2006 effort of 425 races filled but we will do really well nonetheless.

*** Tips, rumours and what not in the comments please.***

Candidate filing is sailing along with lots of states now having completed candidate filings and others with a full slate of Democratic House candidate long before filings close.

Below the fold for details and once again go and take a look at the 2008 Race Tracker Wiki.  

***I have included Cook PVI numbers where possible after blogger requests to do so!***

1 more House race now has a Democratic candidate that has filed in the last week:

GA-03 – R+?,

And one race comes off the list entirely!:

LA-06 – R+7, following Don Cazayoux’s superb special election victory last Saturday.

So 414 races filled! This of course includes 235 districts held by Democratic Congresscritters.

But we also have 179 GOP held districts with confirmed Democratic opponents.

So here is where we are at (GOP Districts):

Districts with confirmed candidates – 179

Districts with unconfirmed candidates – 0

Districts with rumoured candidates – 5

Districts without any candidates – 5

Filing closed – No Democratic candidate – 11

The GOP held districts with confirmed Democratic challengers are as follows:

AL-01 – R+12,

AL-02 – R+13,

AL-03 – R+4,

AL-04 – R+16,

AK-AL – R+14,

AZ-01 – R+2,

AZ-02 – R+9,

AZ-03 – R+6,

AZ-06 – R+12,

CA-02 – R+13,

CA-03 – R+7,

CA-04 – R+11,

CA-21 – R+13,

CA-24 – R+5,

CA-25 – R+7,

CA-26 – R+4,

CA-40 – R+8,

CA-41 – R+9,

CA-42 – R+10,

CA-44 – R+6,

CA-45 – R+3,

CA-46 – R+6,

CA-48 – R+8,

CA-49 – R+10,

CA-50 – R+5,

CA-52 – R+9,

CO-04 – R+9,

CO-05 – R+15.7,

CO-06 – R+10,

CT-04 – D+5,

DE-AL – D+7,

FL-01 – R+19,

FL-04 – R+16,

FL-05 – R+5,

FL-06 – R+8,

FL-07 – R+3,

FL-08 – R+3,

FL-09 – R+4,

FL-10 – D+1,

FL-12 – R+5,

FL-13 – R+4,

FL-14 – R+10,

FL-15 – R+4,

FL-18 – R+4,

FL-21 – R+6,

FL-24 – R+3,

FL-25 – R+4,

GA-01 – R+?,

GA-03 – R+?,

GA-06 – R+?,

GA-07 – R+?,

GA-09 – R+?,

GA-10 – R+?,

GA-11 – R+?,

ID-01 – R+19,

ID-02 – R+19,

IL-06 – R+2.9,

IL-10 – D+4,

IL-11 – R+1.1,

IL-13 – R+5,

IL-15 – R+6,

IL-16 – R+4,

IL-18 – R+5.5,

IL-19 – R+8,

IN-03 – R+16,

IN-04 – R+17,

IN-05 – R+20,

IN-06 – R+11,

IA-04 – D+0,

IA-05 – R+8,

KS-01 – R+20,

KS-04 – R+12,

KY-01 – R+10,

KY-02 – R+12.9,

KY-04 – R+11.7,

LA-01 – R+18,

LA-04 – R+7,

MD-01 – R+10,

MD-06 – R+13,

MI-02 – R+9,

MI-04 – R+3,

MI-07 – R+2,

MI-08 – R+1.9,

MI-09 – R+0,

MI-11 – R+1.2,

MN-02 – R+2.7,

MN-03 – R+0.5,

MN-06 – R+5,

MO-02 – R+9,

MO-06 – R+5,

MO-07 – R+14,

MO-08 – R+11,

MO-09 – R+7,

MS-01 – R+10,

MS-03 – R+14,

MT-AL – R+11,

NE-01 – R+11,

NE-02 – R+9,

NE-03 – R+23.6,

NV-02 – R+8.2,

NV-03 – D+1,

NJ-02 – D+4.0,

NJ-03 – D+3.3,

NJ-04 – R+0.9,

NJ-05 – R+4,

NJ-07 – R+1,

NJ-11 – R+6,

NM-01 – D+2,

NM-02 – R+6,

NY-13 – D+1,

NY-23 – R+0.2,

NY-25 – D+3,

NY-26 – R+3,

NY-29 – R+5,

NC-03 – R+15,

NC-05 – R+15,

NC-06 – R+17,

NC-08 – R+3,

NC-09 – R+12,

NC-10 – R+15,

OH-01 – R+1,

OH-02 – R+13,

OH-03 – R+3,

OH-04 – R+14,

OH-05 – R+10,

OH-07 – R+6,

OH-08 – R+12,

OH-12 – R+0.7,

OH-14 – R+2,

OH-15 – R+1,

OH-16 – R+4,

OK-05 – R+12,

OR-02 – R+11,

PA-03 – R+2,

PA-05 – R+10,

PA-06 – D+2.2,

PA-09 – R+15,

PA-15 – D+2,

PA-16 – R+11,

PA-18 – R+2,

PA-19 – R+12,

SC-01 – R+10,

SC-02 – R+9,

SC-03 – R+14,

SC-04 – R+15,

TN-01 – R+14,

TN-02 – R+11,

TN-03 – R+8,

TN-07 – R+12,

TX-03 – R+17,

TX-04 – R+17,

TX-06 – R+15,

TX-07 – R+16,

TX-08 – R+20,

TX-10 – R+13,

TX-12 – R+14,

TX-13 – R+18,

TX-19 – R+25,

TX-24 – R+15,

TX-26 – R+12,

TX-31 – R+15,

TX-32 – R+11,

UT-01 – R+26,

UT-03 – R+22,

VA-01 – R+9,

VA-02 – R+5.9,

VA-04 – R+5,

VA-05 – R+6,

VA-06 – R+11,

VA-07 – R+11,

VA-10 – R+5,

VA-11 – R+1,

WA-04 – R+13,

WA-05 – R+7.1,

WA-08 – D+2,

WV-02 – R+5,

WI-01 – R+2,

WI-06 – R+5,

WY-AL – R+19,

The following GOP held districts have a candidate that is expected to run but is yet to confirm:

None at this stage

The following GOP held districts have rumoured candidates – please note that some of these “rumours” are extremely tenuous!

LA-07 – R+7,

MI-06 – R+2.3,

NY-03 – D+2.1,

OK-03 – R+18,

OK-04 – R+13,

The following districts have not a single rumoured candidate:

LA-05 – R+10,

MI-03 – R+9,

MI-10 – R+4,

OK-01 – R+13,

WI-05 – R+12,

And last but not least the list I did not want to have to include.

The following Republicans will not have a Democratic opponent in 2008:

AL-06 – R+25,

AR-03 – R+11,

CA-19 – R+10,

CA-22 – R+16,

KY-05 – R+8

TX-01 – R+17,

TX-02 – R+12,

TX-05 – R+16,

TX-11 – R+25,

TX-14 – R+14,

TX-21 – R+13,

Finally due praise to those states where we have a full slate of house candidates – Alaska, Arizona, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Florida, Georgia, Hawaii, Idaho, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Massachusetts, Maryland, Minnesota, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New Mexico, North Carolina, North Dakota, Ohio, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennesee, Utah, Vermont, Virginia, Washington, West Virginia and Wyoming.

It is also interesting to note that we have only one race left to fill in New York and Wisconsin. Thats 40 states with a full slate, and 2 states with one race to fill!  

There are also 5 states where filing has closed where we do not have a full slate: Arkansas, Alabama, California, Kentucky and of course Texas. Lets hope the last 3 Louisiana, Michigan and Oklahoma fill out.

Please note that in some races others at the racetracker site have confirmed candidates that I haven’t. This is because to satisfy me a confirmed candidate has either filed with the FEC, The Sec of State or has an active campaign website, or even if they come and blog and say yep I am running. Others are not so rigorous.

It is also great to see candidates in AZ-06, CA-42, FL-12, LA-06, MS-03, VA-04, VA-06 and WI-06; 8 of 10 districts we did not contest in 2006! The other 2, TX-11 and AL-06, will again go uncontested by Team Blue in 2008.

With 11 uncontested Republicans we will not reach our great 2006 effort of 425 races filled but we will do really well nonetheless.

*** Tips, rumours and what not in the comments please.***

Candidate filing is sailing along with lots of states now having completed candidate filings and others with a full slate of democratic House candidate long before filings close.

Below the fold for details and once again go and take a look at the 2008 Race Tracker Wiki.  

***I have included Cook PVI numbers where possible after blogger requests to do so!***

Lots of House races now have Democratic candidates that have bobbed up in the last few weeks:

FL-06 – R+8,

GA-06 – R+?,

MI-08 – R+1.9,

NJ-02 – D+4.0,

VA-01 – R+9,

WA-05 – R+7.1,

So 413 races filled! This of course includes 234 districts held by Democratic Congresscritters.

But we also have 179 GOP held districts with confirmed Democratic opponents.

So here is where we are at (GOP Districts):

Districts with confirmed candidates – 179

Districts with unconfirmed candidates – 0

Districts with rumoured candidates – 5

Districts without any candidates – 6

Filing closed – No Democratic candidate – 11

The GOP held districts with confirmed Democratic challengers are as follows:

AL-01 – R+12,

AL-02 – R+13,

AL-03 – R+4,

AL-04 – R+16,

AK-AL – R+14,

AZ-01 – R+2,

AZ-02 – R+9,

AZ-03 – R+6,

AZ-06 – R+12,

CA-02 – R+13,

CA-03 – R+7,

CA-04 – R+11,

CA-21 – R+13,

CA-24 – R+5,

CA-25 – R+7,

CA-26 – R+4,

CA-40 – R+8,

CA-41 – R+9,

CA-42 – R+10,

CA-44 – R+6,

CA-45 – R+3,

CA-46 – R+6,

CA-48 – R+8,

CA-49 – R+10,

CA-50 – R+5,

CA-52 – R+9,

CO-04 – R+9,

CO-05 – R+15.7,

CO-06 – R+10,

CT-04 – D+5,

DE-AL – D+7,

FL-01 – R+19,

FL-04 – R+16,

FL-05 – R+5,

FL-06 – R+8,

FL-07 – R+3,

FL-08 – R+3,

FL-09 – R+4,

FL-10 – D+1,

FL-12 – R+5,

FL-13 – R+4,

FL-14 – R+10,

FL-15 – R+4,

FL-18 – R+4,

FL-21 – R+6,

FL-24 – R+3,

FL-25 – R+4,

GA-01 – R+?,

GA-06 – R+?,

GA-07 – R+?,

GA-09 – R+?,

GA-10 – R+?,

GA-11 – R+?,

ID-01 – R+19,

ID-02 – R+19,

IL-06 – R+2.9,

IL-10 – D+4,

IL-11 – R+1.1,

IL-13 – R+5,

IL-15 – R+6,

IL-16 – R+4,

IL-18 – R+5.5,

IL-19 – R+8,

IN-03 – R+16,

IN-04 – R+17,

IN-05 – R+20,

IN-06 – R+11,

IA-04 – D+0,

IA-05 – R+8,

KS-01 – R+20,

KS-04 – R+12,

KY-01 – R+10,

KY-02 – R+12.9,

KY-04 – R+11.7,

LA-01 – R+18,

LA-04 – R+7,

LA-06 – R+7,

MD-01 – R+10,

MD-06 – R+13,

MI-02 – R+9,

MI-04 – R+3,

MI-07 – R+2,

MI-08 – R+1.9,

MI-09 – R+0,

MI-11 – R+1.2,

MN-02 – R+2.7,

MN-03 – R+0.5,

MN-06 – R+5,

MO-02 – R+9,

MO-06 – R+5,

MO-07 – R+14,

MO-08 – R+11,

MO-09 – R+7,

MS-01 – R+10,

MS-03 – R+14,

MT-AL – R+11,

NE-01 – R+11,

NE-02 – R+9,

NE-03 – R+23.6,

NV-02 – R+8.2,

NV-03 – D+1,

NJ-02 – D+4.0,

NJ-03 – D+3.3,

NJ-04 – R+0.9,

NJ-05 – R+4,

NJ-07 – R+1,

NJ-11 – R+6,

NM-01 – D+2,

NM-02 – R+6,

NY-13 – D+1,

NY-23 – R+0.2,

NY-25 – D+3,

NY-26 – R+3,

NY-29 – R+5,

NC-03 – R+15,

NC-05 – R+15,

NC-06 – R+17,

NC-08 – R+3,

NC-09 – R+12,

NC-10 – R+15,

OH-01 – R+1,

OH-02 – R+13,

OH-03 – R+3,

OH-04 – R+14,

OH-05 – R+10,

OH-07 – R+6,

OH-08 – R+12,

OH-12 – R+0.7,

OH-14 – R+2,

OH-15 – R+1,

OH-16 – R+4,

OK-05 – R+12,

OR-02 – R+11,

PA-03 – R+2,

PA-05 – R+10,

PA-06 – D+2.2,

PA-09 – R+15,

PA-15 – D+2,

PA-16 – R+11,

PA-18 – R+2,

PA-19 – R+12,

SC-01 – R+10,

SC-02 – R+9,

SC-03 – R+14,

SC-04 – R+15,

TN-01 – R+14,

TN-02 – R+11,

TN-03 – R+8,

TN-07 – R+12,

TX-03 – R+17,

TX-04 – R+17,

TX-06 – R+15,

TX-07 – R+16,

TX-08 – R+20,

TX-10 – R+13,

TX-12 – R+14,

TX-13 – R+18,

TX-19 – R+25,

TX-24 – R+15,

TX-26 – R+12,

TX-31 – R+15,

TX-32 – R+11,

UT-01 – R+26,

UT-03 – R+22,

VA-01 – R+9,

VA-02 – R+5.9,

VA-04 – R+5,

VA-05 – R+6,

VA-06 – R+11,

VA-07 – R+11,

VA-10 – R+5,

VA-11 – R+1,

WA-04 – R+13,

WA-05 – R+7.1,

WA-08 – D+2,

WV-02 – R+5,

WI-01 – R+2,

WI-06 – R+5,

WY-AL – R+19,

The following GOP held districts have a candidate that is expected to run but is yet to confirm:

None at this stage

The following GOP held districts have rumoured candidates – please note that some of these “rumours” are extremely tenuous!

GA-03 – R+?,

LA-07 – R+7,

NY-03 – D+2.1,

OK-03 – R+18,

OK-04 – R+13,

The following districts have not a single rumoured candidate:

LA-05 – R+10,

MI-03 – R+9,

MI-06 – R+2.3,

MI-10 – R+4,

OK-01 – R+13,

WI-05 – R+12,

And last but not least the list I did not want to have to include.

The following Republicans will not have a Democratic opponent in 2008:

AL-06 – R+25,

AR-03 – R+11,

CA-19 – R+10,

CA-22 – R+16,

KY-05 – R+8

TX-01 – R+17,

TX-02 – R+12,

TX-05 – R+16,

TX-11 – R+25,

TX-14 – R+14,

TX-21 – R+13,

Finally due praise to those states where we have a full slate of house candidates – Alaska, Arizona, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Florida, Hawaii, Idaho, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Massachusetts, Maryland, Minnesota, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New Mexico, North Carolina, North Dakota, Ohio, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennesee, Utah, Vermont, Virginia, Washington, West Virginia and Wyoming.

It is also interesting to note that we have only one race left to fill in Georgia, New York and Wisconsin. Thats 39 states with a full slate, and 3 states with one race to fill!  

There are also 5 states where filing has closed where we do not have a full slate: Arkansas, Alabama, California, Kentucky and of course Texas. Lets hope the last 3 Louisiana, Michigan and Oklahoma fill out.

Please note that in some races others at the racetracker site have confirmed candidates that I haven’t. This is because to satisfy me a confirmed candidate has either filed with the FEC, The Sec of State or has an active campaign website, or even if they come and blog and say yep I am running. Others are not so rigorous.

It is also great to see candidates in AZ-06, CA-42, FL-12, LA-06, MS-03, VA-04, VA-06 and WI-06; 8 of 10 districts we did not contest in 2006! The other 2, TX-11 and AL-06, will again go uncontested by Team Blue in 2008.

With 11 uncontested Republicans we will not reach our great 2006 effort of 425 races filled but we will do really well nonetheless.

*** Tips, rumours and what not in the comments please.***

Candidate filing is sailing along with lots of states now having completed candidate filings and others with a full slate of democratic House candidate long before filings close.

Below the fold for details and once again go and take a look at the 2008 Race Tracker Wiki.  

***I have included Cook PVI numbers where possible after blogger requests to do so!***

Lots of House races now have Democratic candidates that have bobbed up in the last few weeks:

GA-07 – R+?,

GA-11 – R+?,

ID-02 – R+19,

SC-03 – R+14,

SC-04 – R+15,

TN-01 – R+14,

TN-02 – R+11,

TN-03 – R+8,

TN-07 – R+12,

UT-03 – R+22,

But three races go to the uncontested in 2008 list:

AL-06 – R+25,

CA-19 – R+10, (our candidate withdrew)

CA-22 – R+16,

So 407 races filled! This of course includes 234 districts held by Democratic Congresscritters.

But we also have 173 GOP held districts with confirmed Democratic opponents.

So here is where we are at (GOP Districts):

Districts with confirmed candidates – 173

Districts with unconfirmed candidates – 2

Districts with rumoured candidates – 9

Districts without any candidates – 6

Filing closed – No Democratic candidate – 11

The GOP held districts with confirmed Democratic challengers are as follows:

AL-01 – R+12,

AL-02 – R+13,

AL-03 – R+4,

AL-04 – R+16,

AK-AL – R+14,

AZ-01 – R+2,

AZ-02 – R+9,

AZ-03 – R+6,

AZ-06 – R+12,

CA-02 – R+13,

CA-03 – R+7,

CA-04 – R+11,

CA-21 – R+13,

CA-24 – R+5,

CA-25 – R+7,

CA-26 – R+4,

CA-40 – R+8,

CA-41 – R+9,

CA-42 – R+10,

CA-44 – R+6,

CA-45 – R+3,

CA-46 – R+6,

CA-48 – R+8,

CA-49 – R+10,

CA-50 – R+5,

CA-52 – R+9,

CO-04 – R+9,

CO-05 – R+15.7,

CO-06 – R+10,

CT-04 – D+5,

DE-AL – D+7,

FL-01 – R+19,

FL-04 – R+16,

FL-05 – R+5,

FL-07 – R+3,

FL-08 – R+3,

FL-09 – R+4,

FL-10 – D+1,

FL-12 – R+5,

FL-13 – R+4,

FL-14 – R+10,

FL-15 – R+4,

FL-18 – R+4,

FL-21 – R+6,

FL-24 – R+3,

FL-25 – R+4,

GA-01 – R+?,

GA-07 – R+?,

GA-09 – R+?,

GA-10 – R+?,

GA-11 – R+?,

ID-01 – R+19,

ID-02 – R+19,

IL-06 – R+2.9,

IL-10 – D+4,

IL-11 – R+1.1,

IL-13 – R+5,

IL-15 – R+6,

IL-16 – R+4,

IL-18 – R+5.5,

IL-19 – R+8,

IN-03 – R+16,

IN-04 – R+17,

IN-05 – R+20,

IN-06 – R+11,

IA-04 – D+0,

IA-05 – R+8,

KS-01 – R+20,

KS-04 – R+12,

KY-01 – R+10,

KY-02 – R+12.9,

KY-04 – R+11.7,

LA-01 – R+18,

LA-04 – R+7,

LA-06 – R+7,

MD-01 – R+10,

MD-06 – R+13,

MI-02 – R+9,

MI-04 – R+3,

MI-07 – R+2,

MI-09 – R+0,

MI-11 – R+1.2,

MN-02 – R+2.7,

MN-03 – R+0.5,

MN-06 – R+5,

MO-02 – R+9,

MO-06 – R+5,

MO-07 – R+14,

MO-08 – R+11,

MO-09 – R+7,

MS-01 – R+10,

MS-03 – R+14,

MT-AL – R+11,

NE-01 – R+11,

NE-02 – R+9,

NE-03 – R+23.6,

NV-02 – R+8.2,

NV-03 – D+1,

NJ-03 – D+3.3,

NJ-04 – R+0.9,

NJ-05 – R+4,

NJ-07 – R+1,

NJ-11 – R+6,

NM-01 – D+2,

NM-02 – R+6,

NY-13 – D+1,

NY-23 – R+0.2,

NY-25 – D+3,

NY-26 – R+3,

NY-29 – R+5,

NC-03 – R+15,

NC-05 – R+15,

NC-06 – R+17,

NC-08 – R+3,

NC-09 – R+12,

NC-10 – R+15,

OH-01 – R+1,

OH-02 – R+13,

OH-03 – R+3,

OH-04 – R+14,

OH-05 – R+10,

OH-07 – R+6,

OH-08 – R+12,

OH-12 – R+0.7,

OH-14 – R+2,

OH-15 – R+1,

OH-16 – R+4,

OK-05 – R+12,

OR-02 – R+11,

PA-03 – R+2,

PA-05 – R+10,

PA-06 – D+2.2,

PA-09 – R+15,

PA-15 – D+2,

PA-16 – R+11,

PA-18 – R+2,

PA-19 – R+12,

SC-01 – R+10,

SC-02 – R+9,

SC-03 – R+14,

SC-04 – R+15,

TN-01 – R+14,

TN-02 – R+11,

TN-03 – R+8,

TN-07 – R+12,

TX-03 – R+17,

TX-04 – R+17,

TX-06 – R+15,

TX-07 – R+16,

TX-08 – R+20,

TX-10 – R+13,

TX-12 – R+14,

TX-13 – R+18,

TX-19 – R+25,

TX-24 – R+15,

TX-26 – R+12,

TX-31 – R+15,

TX-32 – R+11,

UT-01 – R+26,

UT-03 – R+22,

VA-02 – R+5.9,

VA-04 – R+5,

VA-05 – R+6,

VA-06 – R+11,

VA-07 – R+11,

VA-10 – R+5,

VA-11 – R+1,

WA-04 – R+13,

WA-08 – D+2,

WV-02 – R+5,

WI-01 – R+2,

WI-06 – R+5,

WY-AL – R+19,

The following GOP held districts have a candidate that is expected to run but is yet to confirm:

NJ-02 – D+4.0,

WA-05 – R+7.1,

The following GOP held districts have rumoured candidates – please note that some of these “rumours” are extremely tenuous!

FL-06 – R+8,

GA-03 – R+?,

GA-06 – R+?,

LA-07 – R+7,

MI-08 – R+1.9,

NY-03 – D+2.1,

OK-03 – R+18,

OK-04 – R+13,

VA-01 – R+9,

The following districts have not a single rumoured candidate:

LA-05 – R+10,

MI-03 – R+9,

MI-06 – R+2.3,

MI-10 – R+4,

OK-01 – R+13,

WI-05 – R+12,

And last but not least the list I did not want to have to include.

The following Republicans will not have a Democratic opponent in 2008:

AL-06 – R+25,

AR-03 – R+11,

CA-19 – R+10,

CA-22 – R+16,

KY-05 – R+8

TX-01 – R+17,

TX-02 – R+12,

TX-05 – R+16,

TX-11 – R+25,

TX-14 – R+14,

TX-21 – R+13,

Finally due praise to those states where we have a full slate of house candidates – Alaska, Arizona, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Hawaii, Idaho, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Massachusetts, Maryland, Minnesota, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, North Dakota, Ohio, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennesee, Utah, Vermont, West Virginia and Wyoming.

It is also interesting to note that we have only one race left to fill in Florida, New Jersey, New York, Virginia, Washington and Wisconsin. Thats 35 states with a full slate, and 6 states with one race to fill!  That is more than 80% of the states with a full or nearly full slate of candidates 7 months before election day, an impressive feat indeed!

There are also 5 states where filing has closed where we do not have a full slate: Arkansas, Alabama, California, Kentucky and of course Texas. Lets hope the rest fill out.

Please note that in some races others at the racetracker site have confirmed candidates that I haven’t. This is because to satisfy me a confirmed candidate has either filed with the FEC, The Sec of State or has an active campaign website, or even if they come and blog and say yep I am running. Others are not so rigorous.

It is also great to see candidates in AZ-06, CA-42, FL-12, LA-06, MS-03, VA-04, VA-06 and WI-06; 8 of 10 districts we did not contest in 2006! The other 2, TX-11 and AL-06, will again go uncontested by Team Blue in 2008.

With 11 uncontested Republicans we will not reach our great 2006 effort of 425 races filled but we will do really well nonetheless.

*** Tips, rumours and what not in the comments please.***