Author: jeffmd

A super Tuesday of primaries means a super-sized Primary Roundup the day after!

Arkansas:

• AR-Sen (D): Blanche Lincoln’s 52-48 victory in the runoff over Bill Halter is being spun as a comeback, but she did, y’know, win the primary too, by a similar margin. A series of R2K polls plus the incumbent rule were the main reason most people mentally gave Halter the edge going into the runoff, but in the end, a pretty similar universe of voters showed up the second time, while the D.C. Morrison voters either split evenly or just stayed away. (C)
• AR-01 (D): Chad Causey, the former CoS to retiring Rep. Marion Berry, eked out a 51-49 runoff victory over former state Sen. Tim Wooldridge in a battle of conservadem vs. very-conservadem. Causey’s late endorsement by Bill Clinton may have helped push him over the top. (C)
• AR-02 (D): In another Dem runoff, liberal African-American state Sen. Joyce Elliott won a 54-46 victory over state House speaker Robbie Wills. They went hard negative on each other, meaning a lot of damage control before facing well-financed GOPer Tim Griffin in November. (C)
• AR-03 (R): In the dark-red 3rd, Rogers mayor Steve Womack won the GOP runoff against state Sen. Cecile Bledsoe, 52-48; Womack is almost certain to win in November. Bledsoe was the only Sarah Palin endorsee to lose last night (but then, Fiorina and Branstad were gimmees). (C)

California:

• CA-Gov (R): With only one outlier poll to the contrary, the primary between former eBay CEO Meg Whitman and current Insurance Commissioner Steve Poizner wasn’t expected to be close. Poizner’s attempts to outflank Whitman on the right netted him only a 64-27 defeat; Whitman now goes on to face former Governor and current state Attorney General Jerry Brown. (JMD)
• CA-Sen (R): Yesterday wasn’t a dream for Carly Fiorina, who romped to a victory with 56% of the vote over former San Jose congressman Tom Campbell and Orange County Assemblyman Chuck DeVore. CarlyFornia gets to take on three-term incumbent Barbara Boxer. (JMD)
• CA-Lt. Gov (D): In just one of yesterday’s showings of the Northern California dominance of the California Democratic Party, San Francisco Mayor Gavin Newsom beat LA City Councilwoman Janice Hahn 55-32, winning all but six counties. (JMD)
• CA-Lt. Gov (R): Incumbent Lt. Gov Abel Maldonado, appointed to replace now-Rep. John Garamendi, beat back a conservative challenge from term-limited State Senator Sam Aanestad by a 43-31 margin. Aanestad won the counties in his district and the OC, but not much else. (JMD)
• CA-Att. Gen (D): In this seven-way primary for the Dem nod to replace Jerry Brown who’s running for governor, San Francisco DA Kamala Harris withstood an aerial assault from Facebook Chief “Privacy” Officer Chris Kelly. Harris ended up more than doubling Harris’ vote totals, 33-16. Behind them were East Bay Assemblyman Alberto Torrico at 15%, LA County Assemblyman Ted Lieu, Santa Barbara Assemblyman Pedro Nava, and LA City Attorney Rocky Delgadillo at 10 apiece. All three Assemblyman were term-limited – better luck next time at musical chairs, guys. (JMD)
• CA-Att. Gen (R): Los Angeles County DA Steve Cooley, the lone moderate in the field of three, scores a convincing 47-34-19 victory over his more conservative opponents, Chapman University Law School dean John Eastman and Orange County Assemblyman Tom Harman. This sets up yet another NorCal-SoCal matchup for AG in November, LA County DA Steve Cooley against San Francisco (City and County) DA Kamala Harris. (JMD)
• CA-Sec. of State (R): O, RLY? No, not really. Some insiders were worried that Birther Queen Orly Taitz would inexplicably earn the GOP nod for Secretary of State, but she ended up getting thoroughly pasted by ex-NFLer Damon Dunn 74-26. While Dunn’s busy facing off against incumbent Dem SoS Debra Bowen, Orly can go back to getting thoroughly pasted (and fined) in court for filing frivolous suits. (JMD)
• CA-Init: The good news: Props 16 and 17 — pet projects for the private utilities and insurance companies, respectively — have both failed, both losing 52-48 after leading much of the night. The bad news (well, as far as most blogosphere chatter goes; as a Washingtonian with first-hand experience with the ‘top two’ system, my own feelings are a firm ‘meh’): Prop 14 passed 54-46, meaning California switches to a ‘top two’ primary system. (C)
• CA-02 (R): Longtime Republican incumbent Wally Herger survived an attempted teabagging from retired Air Force Col. Pete Siglich by a 65-35 spread. Siglich criticized Herger for his TARP bailout vote, earmarks, and, going all the way back to 2003, his support for Medicare Part D, but only spent $45,000 on the race. (JL)
• CA-11 (R): Attorney David Harmer, who carpetbagged across the border from the 10th after establishing his GOP bona fides in the special election there, captured the GOP nomination with a middling 36%. The publicity Brad Goehring got over his lib’rul huntin’ remarks seemed to catapult him into 2nd place, ahead of the other two more normal candidates, Tony Amador and Elizabeth Emken. (C)
• CA-19 (R): As in the 11th, the establishment GOPer (here, state Sen. Jeff Denham) was the victor with 36% against a fractured field. Denham, who got the backing of retiring Rep. George Radanovich, beat former Fresno mayor (and Club for Growth guy) Jim Patterson and slimy former CA-11 Rep. Richard Pombo. (C)
• CA-33 (D): Former Assembly Speaker Karen Bass, who’s LA-based 47th AD overlaps quite a bit with CD-33, beat out some minor opposition with 85% of the vote to win the Democratic nomination to succeed outgoing Dem. Diane Watson. Bass faces minor GOP opposition in November and will almost certainly be the next Congresswoman from this D+35 district. (JMD)
• CA-36 (D): Marcy Winograd’s second challenge to Jane Harman was better organized than her first run in 2006, and Jane Harman’s had her share of scandal since then, but the needle barely moved. Harman scored 58.8%, down from 62.5% in 2006, but Harman never looked like she was in any real danger last night. (JMD)
• CA-37 (D): In another case of an incumbent under 70%, scandal-ridden Laura Richardson scored a suprisingly weak 68% against three miscellaneous Democratic opponents in this Long Beach based district. (JMD)
• CA-42 (R): Who (other than Swing State Project, of course) would’ve guessed that out of all the dozens of incumbent House members up for re-election, the night’s second worst performance after Bob Inglis would come from Orange County’s Gary Miller? With problems including war record embellishment, ethical clouds, and a pro-TARP vote, Miller beat Phil Liberatore only 49-37. (C)
• CA-47 (R): Despite the presence of another Vietnamese candidate on the ballot, Garden Grove Assemblyman Van Tran still got a majority of the vote to challenge incumbent Democrat Loretta Sanchez in this majority-Hispanic district that went for Bush in 2004, but also went by 20% for Obama. (JMD)
• CA-50 (D): If Francine Busby takes another run after this one, she’s in serious danger of landing the kiss of death of being called “perennial candidate” in the press. Nevertheless, she won the booby prize of the Democratic nod against GOP Rep. Brian Bilbray over attorney Tracy Emblem with two thirds of the vote. This marks her fourth run for this seat, and her third against Bilbray (counting two races in 2006). It’s not quite Sodrel-esque, but it’s getting close. (JL)

Georgia:

• GA-09 (Special): Tom Graves was hit with some late scuttle in this race to succeed retiring GOPer Nathan Deal who resigned to run for Governor. Despite some weakness in Gainesville (Hall County), the former state Rep. beat out fellow Republican former state Senator Lee Hawkins by a 56-44 margin. The House now stands at 255 D, 178 R and 2 vacancies. (JMD)

Iowa:

• IA-Gov (R): Terry Branstad, to no one’s surprise, won the GOP primary for a fifth (!) term as Governor. The only surprise was the tepid margin; he beat social conservative Bob Vander Plaats 50-41 (with 9 for Rod Roberts). Unfortunately for Chet Culver (who may be ruing not trying some Gray Davis-style manipulation in the GOP primary), a weak Branstad win is still a Branstad win. (C)
• IA-02 (R): Move over Marjorie Margolies-Mezvinsky and M. Myers Mermel, because Mariannette Miller-Meeks is back in town. The ophthalmologist and 2008 nominee against David Loebsack won the GOP primary surprisingly easily (with 51%), considering she was against NRCC pick Rob Gettemy and two former Senate candidates. (C)
• IA-03 (R): The NRCC also hit the Fail jackpot in the 3rd, where their pick, former wrestling coach Jim Gibbons, lost decisively to the better-organized state Sen. Brad Zaun (who won with 42% to Gibbons’ 28%) in a race that had been expected to go to convention to be decided. desmoinesdem has a good diary up detailing the NRCC’s Iowa double-faceplant. (C)

Maine:

• ME-Gov (D): State Senate president Libby Mitchell seems on track to becoming Maine’s first female governor, winning the Democratic primary with 35%; a Bill Clinton endorsement may have helped her stand out from the ho-hum pack. She was followed by former AG Steve Rowe at 23, businesswoman Rosa Scarcelli at 22, and former state Conservation director (and former Avengers star) Patrick McGowan at 20. (C)
• ME-Gov (R): Waterville mayor Paul LePage, the Republican who’d been most closely associated with local Tea Partiers, won the GOP nomination with 38%. He finished ahead of a gaggle of moderates, including businessman Les Otten at 17, state Sen. Peter Mills at 15, ex-Collins CoS Steve Abbott at 13. Will a race between the very liberal Mitchell and very conservative LePage give a legitimate opening to centrist independent Eliot Cutler in November? (C)

New Jersey:

• NJ-03 (R): Former Eagles offensive lineman and establishment favorite Jon Runyan dispatched Tabernacle Township Committeeman and insurgent Justin Murphy by a 60-40 margin for the right to take on freshman Dem John Adler in this Burlington County-based R+1 district. (JMD)
• NJ-06 (R): Back in the egg-on-NRCC’s-face department, one of their “on the radar” candidates, Monmouth County GOP Vice Chair Diane Gooch, finds herself 61 votes behind Highlands mayor Anna Little. Winner takes on 11-term Dem Frank Pallone. (JMD)
• NJ-07 (R): Frosh GOP Rep. Leonard Lance was held to only 56% in his primary against a four-pack of underfunded teabaggers. His closest foe, businessman David Larsen, received 31% of the vote. (JL)
• NJ-12 (R): NRCC favorite Scott Sipprelle had a surprisingly close call (59-41) against the teabaggish David Corsi for the right to take on Dem Rush Holt in this central Jersey district. (JMD)

Nevada:

• NV-Gov (R): A pathetic end for a pathetic man: GOP Gov. Jim Gibbons claimed only 27% in his primary against ex-AG Brian Sandoval, who won the nod with 56%. Sandoval will try to take on Rory Reid’s lunch money in the fall. (JL)
• NV-Sen (R): Harry Reid must be doing the Angle Dance tonight, as the Dirty Harry Hand Cannon-packing, crypto-Scientologist, prohibitionist, Club for Growth-backed nutcake Sharron Angle trounced former NV GOP Chair Sue Lowden and ex-SoS candidate Danny Tarkanian by an absurd 40-26-23 spread. Harry Reid, you are one lucky bastard. (JL)

South Carolina:

• SC-Gov: State Sen. Vincent Sheheen easily claimed the Democratic gubernatorial nomination in South Carolina with 59% of the vote against the briefly-hyped SC School Superintendent Jim Rex (23%). He’ll have some time to replenish his reserves by the Republican race goes to a runoff, as state Rep. Nikki Haley weathered her recent controversies in fine form with 49% of the vote to TARP-loving US Rep. Gresham Barrett’s 22%. (JL)
• SC-Sen (D): This is just embarrassing. South Carolina Democrats had been hyping the candidacy of Charleston County councilman and ex-state Rep. Vic Rawl for months, but Rawl ended up losing to Alvin Greene, a 32-year-old unemployed ex-military guy who lives with his dad and somehow found the ten grand necessary to file for office. (And it wasn’t even close, either, at 59-41.) Do we have another Scott Lee Cohen on our hands? The morning-after news seems to suggest so, with court records confirming that Greene was charged with showing obscene pictures to a college student. This is now the second cycle in a row where SC Dems have nominated the less-than-ideal choice for Senate. (JL)
• SC-01: Oy. This is pretty damn embarrassing, too. Perennial candidate Ben Frasier (0 for 19!) upset the mildly touted Robert Burton, a former member of the Board of Commissioners of the State Housing Finance and Development Authority, for the Democratic nomination in this open seat. For the Republicans, we’re looking at a run-off between state Rep. Tim Scott (the Club for Growth’s choice), who won 31% of the vote, and legacy candidate Paul Thurmond, who placed second with 16%. (JL)
• SC-03 (R): This was a bit of a surprise. In the race to succeed Gresham Barrett in the House, businessman Richard Cash finished first with 25%, with state Rep. Jeff Duncan also advancing to the run-off with 23%. That’s something of an upset, as state Rep. Rex Rice, who placed third at 19%, was seen as a strong bet to make the run-off. (JL)
• SC-04 (R): Bob Inglis is utterly doomed. The increasingly sane GOP incumbent only won 28% of the vote in his primary against Spartanburg County Solicitor Trey Gowdy and other teabag also-rans. Gowdy ended the night with 39%, meaning that these two are headed for a run-off, but it’s hard to imagine how Inglis can survive this one. (JL)

South Dakota:

• SD-Gov (R): Lt. Gov. Dennis Daugaard easily sowed up the Republican gubernatorial nomination with 50% of the vote in a five-person field. He’ll face state Senate Minority Leader Scott Scott Heidepriem in November. (JL)
• SD-AL (R): This was always a hard race to fit into the usual Republican primary template, since all three of the GOP candidates (SoS Chris Nelson, and state Reps. Blake Curd and Kristi Noem) were establishment types, despite some teabaggish behavior (most notably Nelson, who’d been birther-curious). In the end, Noem prevailed, beating Nelson and Curd without a runoff, 42-35-23. Did Noem’s advertising make the difference, or did Nelson’s birtherism cost him his early frontrunner status? (C)

Virginia:

• VA-02 (R): Auto dealer Scott Rigell wrapped up the Republican nomination to face Dem Rep. Glenn Nye the Freshman Guy with 40% of the vote. Businessman Ben Loyola placed second with 27%. (JL)

• VA-05 (R): Despite being absolutely despised by the teabagging base in the district thanks to his vote for the tax hiking Mark Warner budget many moons ago, state Sen. Robert Hurt easily won the GOP nod against Democrat Tom Perriello with 48% of the vote. Hurt will have to look out on his right flank, though, as Danville businessman Jeff Clark has said that he would run as an independent if Hurt wins the nod. (JL)
  

As promised, I would make maps of primary election results. I started with the three big contests on May 4th – the Democratic Senate contests in North Carolina and Ohio, and the GOP Senate contest in Indiana.

This diary is a bit lengthy with all the images, so most of them will go over the flip!

But a taste first (Green is Marshall, Orange is Cunningham, and Purple is Lewis):

As you can see, Marshall did well in most parts of the state, with the notable exceptions being the Piedmont Triad, which went strongly for Cunningham. Lewis won four counties, Durham and three others located in GK Butterfield’s majority-black district.

More over the flip…

More North Carolina:

Marshall, Cunningham, and Lewis’ performances statewide:

Of course, as we all know, Marshall only got 36%, less than the 40% needed and the race is going to a runoff. Here is Marshall’s performance against the 40% threshold. A red circle indicates a loss of votes against the threshold for Marshall, a green circle indicates a gain. As you can see, those are some mighty big red circles in Forsyth and Guilford Counties of the Triad, accompanied by sizable circles in Durham and Charlotte.

However, I’d still call Marshall the favorite heading into the runoff: Looking at her performance directly against Cunningham, we get the following. Cal ran up the margins in a few counties, but a large part of Marshall falling short of 40% is Lewis’ strong draw on the African American vote.

O-H. I-O..(Hey, I can spell Ohio by myself! No love for the Buckeyes here…)

Ohio is a story of regions: Brunner did exceptionally well in the far Northwest, Metro Cincinnati, and the Ohio River counties. Fisher did admirably almost everywhere else, even taking Brunner’s home county of Franklin. (Brunner in green, Fisher in orange.)

While you might be tempted to think this looks relatively evenly matched, Fisher cleaned up in his base area in the Northeast. There are two ways to visualize this:

Brunner did very well in the counties she won, but the juggernaut of votes that is Cuyahoga County can’t be underestimated in a Democratic contest:

Finally, Ohio’s next door neighbor: Indiana.

Dan Coats hobbled to a 40% victory over two people who split the anti-establishment, and it shows. (Coats in orange, Hostettler in green, Stutzman in purple). IN-03 (Souder’s open district where Stutzman might run) and IN-08 (Hostettler’s former district) are highlighted.

John Hostettler might have been bounced from the Bloody Eighth by a margin of 61-39 in 2006, but GOP primary voters in the district still seem to like him: Hoss’ support is VERY regionalized, doing the best in the southwestern corner and dropping off as you progress northeast. Stutzman seemed to have two stronger areas: a stronghold in the 3rd CD, and a belt across the center of the state including Marion County and Columbus.

Coats, again, I think got the benefit of a divided field, something you can easily tell when you compare Coats v. Hoss+Stutz (Green being Coats, Red being the aggregate of Hostettler and Stutzman), as well as the customary pie chart map:

Next edition of the SSP atlas: May 18th.

So, the PA-12 special election is tomorrow, occurring in the Kerry-McCain district. Ironically, despite the failure of the Pennsylvania dummymander (the GOP having lost the 3rd, 4th, 6th, 7th, 8th, AND 10th since the 2002 remap and 2004 readjustment), this is yet another district where the GOP’s intentions fell significantly short.

It’s no secret that the 12th is quite the gerrymander, winding its way from Greene and Fayette County in the Southwest, through Washington County, with an arm through Somerset County, a large section of Johnstown and Cambria County (site of John Murtha Johnstown-Cambria County Airport, no less), another arm to pick up the college town of Indiana, three distinct sections of Allegheny and Westmoreland counties each (!!), and part of Armstrong County.

The 12th, however, is somewhat ancestrally Democratic – this was Joe Hoeffel’s 4th best district in 2004, and turned out strong for Bob Casey. If you average the four federal statewide races since 2004 (Kerry v. Bush, Hoeffel v. Specter, Casey v. Santorum, and Obama v. McCain), the district’s returned on average a Democratic performance of 51.3% to 46.2%.

We can visualize this as follows (click on images for larger versions):

The Democratic strength is concentrated in the southern bulb around Washington and along the Monongahela River south of Pittsburgh, as well as in Johnstown. Of course, connecting the two areas does require passing through some significantly Republican areas.

At risk of falling victim to the “Republican Heartland” fallacy, playing around with my new GIS toys, we can pull some NYT-style map goodness, with graduated circles:

In this map, the sheer Democratic dominance of Johnstown and the Monongahela River towns becomes even more evident.

So what does this all mean for tomorrow? Critz needs to do well in Murtha’s old base in Cambria County, and hopefully stanch some of the Democratic bleeding in the southwestern half of the district.

As with Martha Coakley and Scott Brown, I also made an election-night model to predict results as they come in last night. It uses the similar uniform-swing assumptions (as compared to the 2004-2008 Democratic average) and accounts for possible variation within a given jurisdiction (this is necessary since counties here are much larger than towns in Massachusetts). I’m still fine-tuning the specifics, but expect that online sometime tomorrow afternoon!

So says the Politico:

In a major blow to Democrats, House Appropriations Committee Chairman David Obey has told close associates that he will not seek re-election and an announcement of his plans is expected as early as Wednesday.

Obey had been expected to run for re-election in this D+3 district in Northwest Wisconsin, facing off against the winner of the GOP primary between Real World: Boston cast member (and Ashland County DA) Sean Duffy and ’08 nominee Dan Mielke. Obey won 61% against Mielke in 2008.

Obama won 56-43 here, but Kerry and Gore only scraped out meager 1-point wins. This is considered ancestrally Democratic territory, but the continued expansion of the Twin Cities exurbs is starting to have an effect.

The filing deadline is July 13th and the primary September 14th.

David and the rest of the SSP crew have been kind enough to give me a soapbox here, and I think I’ll be starting a series on breaking down large jurisdictions through the lens of some election.

Having gotten my hands on precinct data for the city for both 2008 and the 2010 Special, I thought I’d continue to examine the disparities between Obama’s and Coakley’s respective performances.

As you can see on the map, the geographic central core of the city, Roxbury and Mattapan, remained strong with little dropoff from Coakley to the Obama. Jamaica Plain, Allston/Brighton, and Back Bay – all strong Obama areas as well – showed slightly greater drop-offs. Even greater drop-offs were noticeable in the already swingy areas of the city, such as West Roxbury, Dorchester, Charlestown, and Southie. McCain won only 3 precincts throughout the entire city’s 254; Brown increased that to 33.

Putting this statewide perspective, we get this:

Again looking at the map, South Boston was pretty darn brutal for Coakley, with Brown scoring 60%+ in several precincts. Many people (including one Stephen Lynch) indicated particular hostility for Coakley in the neighborhood. She did get destroyed here, but was it any worse than how badly she got destroyed across the rest of the state?

I think not. Sidenote: I’m defining “South Boston” the same way the Boston City Council does, that is, all nine precincts in Ward 6 and precincts 1-7 in Ward 7.

In 2008, in the 16 precincts constituting “South Boston” (or Southie), Obama beat McCain by a margin of 3,100 votes, or roughly 59-39. In 2010, Coakley lost by a margin of 1,500 votes, or roughly 43-56. Overall, this was a 16.0% swing; this is somewhat worse than that 15.31% swing experienced by Coakley across the state.

But, despite my election-night model assuming so, Coakley didn’t experience a uniform dropoff. Instead, dropoffs are quite correlated with how well Obama performed in the area was to begin with. (This makes sense – Democratic strongholds are likely to remain so, while swingy areas in which Obama did well might have been particularly receptive to Republicans in a close election.)

Throwing this up on a graph (with Coakley’s dropoff on the vertical axis and Obama’s margin on the horizontal), we get:

You’ll see a few outliers here: the point at the origin you can throw out – that’s Boston Precinct 01-15, which last had a voter in 2004. The correlation on that is 0.83 0.816, suggesting quite a strong relationship.

Taking the geekery to the next level, I busted out the extraordinarily helpful Stata (how academic of you, my SPSS-using friends tell me…):

For those who are less of statistics nerds than I am, the regression tells us two main things:

• For every point increase in Obama’s margin in a voting unit (precincts within Boston, towns elsewhere), we can expect Coakley’s performance relative to Obama’s to improve by 0.14%.
• For a hypothetical voting unit that was exactly tied between Obama and McCain, we should expect a 17% swing away from Coakley.
  

Applying this to South Boston, we see that there isn’t really a pattern: some precincts had drop-offs more than to be expected, others had less.

There really isn’t much a discernible pattern here, again, supporting the conclusion that while Southie didn’t like Martha, they didn’t indicate their dislike for her through their votes more than the rest of the state did.

This can all be represented visually as well:

The last benefit of getting the Boston data was I could finish results of the Senate Race by CD. As we’d already known, they weren’t pretty, but here’s the results table just as a freebie:

Research 2000 for Daily Kos (3/8-10, likely voters, 8/9-12, 2009 in parentheses):

For CA-Gov:

Meg Whitman (R): 52 (24)

Steve Poizner (R): 19 (9)

Tom Campbell (R): NA (19)

(MoE: ±5.0%)

Jerry Brown (D): 45 (42)

Meg Whitman (R): 41 (36)

Jerry Brown (D): 48 (43)

Steve Poizner (R): 33 (34)

(MoE: ±4.0%)

In the Republican primary, both candidates are becoming better well known, though Tom Campbell’s exit from the Governor’s race seems to have benefited Meg Whitman quite a bit. Whitman seems to be going for the “moderate” mantle here, with Poizner running to her right.

Gov. Moonbeam continues to lead Whitman narrowly and Poizner by a somewhat larger margin. Poizner’s posturing may be hurting him in the general election though, as his favorables have moved from 35 to 37, while his unfavorables have jumped from 27 to 40, putting him in net negative territory. Poizner had been keeping pace with Indies at 36/35, but Brown’s taken the clear advantage, with Indies now breaking 46/30 in his favor.

Whitman has made herself better known, with “no opinion” of her down to 14 from 29; her favorables are now a solid 51/35 (up from 41/30). Brown’s also in net positive territory though, at a solid 52/40.

For CA-Sen:

Tom Campbell (R): 33 (NA)

Carly Fiorina (R): 24 (29)

Chuck DeVore (R): 7 (17)

(MoE: ±5.0%)

Barbara Boxer (D): 47

Tom Campbell (R): 43

Barbara Boxer (D): 49 (52)

Carly Fiorina (R): 40 (31)

Barbara Boxer (D): 49 (53)

Chuck DeVore (R): 39 (29)

(MoE: ±4.0%)

The biggest news in the primary is former 15th CD Rep. Tom Campbell’s entry into the race, where he’s leapfrogged into first place, with his gain coming at both Fiorina and DeVore’s expense.

Campbell – with his base in Santa Clara County – carries his strength to the general as well. Somewhat troubling for Dems is his strength among Independents, where he narrowly edges Boxer 45-43. Carlyfornia Dreamin has turned somewhat into the Pacific Coast Gaffeway recently, and it’s taking a toll on her favorables. Fiorina was already in negative territory at 22/29 in August, but she’s not exactly winning people over. She’s added +13 to her favorables, but +14 to her unfavorables.

Chuck DeVore continues to be a non-factor in the general, he’s also in net negative territory at 34/42. If by some miracle he pulls it out of the primary, I think we’ll be looking at something similar to Boxer-Jones in 2004.

Barbara Boxer’s favorables aren’t the best at 50/45, but that’s more than Carly or Chuck can claim. DiFi’s not doing much better though, at 49/44, though Obama remains popular at 60/32 (which is probably keeping has national approval from dropping into the 40’s).

RaceTracker Wiki: CA-Gov | CA-Sen

Public Policy Polling (3/5-8, registered voters, no trendlines)

Charlie Crist (R): 28

Marco Rubio (R): 60

Undecided: 12

(MoE: ±4.4%)

David teased this poll earlier in the digest, but as you can see, things are seriously getting bad for Charlie Crist.

This is PPP’s first poll on Florida, but Rubio’s more than doubling up on Crist now; Rasmussen had this race at 49-37 in Late January. Republican primary voters now disapprove of Crist by a margin of 29-56, which worsens to 20-64 among conservatives.

So what’s the road ahead for Charlie Crist? Probably not in the Governor’s race either:

Charlie Crist (R): 35

Bill McCollum (R): 49

Undecided: 16

Crist’s now also losing to conservative AG Bill McCollum by a hefty margin as well.

With 41% of Republicans wanting Crist out of the party as either an Indy (15%) or Democrat (26%) – compared to 43% who want him to stay, good ol’ Charlie should seriously consider a party switch.

As we all know, Governor Goodhair is now moving on to take on Bill White in the general election, and last night may have shown a natural ceiling for what the Tea Party can accomplish in Debra Medina.

We also say, maybe, some anti-Washington bias in Texans’ sound rejection of Kay Bailey Hutchison.

So how did it all shake out?

Well, here’s the map by county:

Throughout this diary, Blue denotes Perry, Green denotes KBH, and Red denotes either Medina or simply “anti-Perry”, depending on whether it’s a 3-color or 2-color scheme map, respectively.

You’ll see that Medina won 4 counties, Carson, Crane, San Saba, and Zavala. None of these counties are particularly vote-rich; in these four combined, Medina received 1,256 votes to Perry’s 711 and KBH’s 701. KBH won a cluster of counties around San Angelo, but really couldn’t tell you why.

More after the flip.

Here are each candidate’s performances:

KBH:

As we said, KBH did the best in a cluster near San Angelo; she did decently well in the Panhandle. She performed poorly in the Houston area, likely leading to Perry clearing the runoff threshold. Other areas of weakness included East Texas and along the (Mexican) border.

Medina:

Medina did well in North Texas, especially outside Dallas County; and west of Houston. East Texas and the Panhandle were particularly week. Not too much to read into in Medina’s county wins – they’re small counties and some might just be flukes, like Medina’s 11-3-2 win in Zavala County (a heavily Hispanic county that went VERY strongly for Obama).

Perry:

Lastly, we have Perry’s map. Perry did extremely well in Metro Houston, East Texas, and along the border; in contrast to slightly weaker performances in the Metroplex and again around San Angelo. The darkest blue is where Perry received 50%+, keeping him from the runoff.

Here’s an alternative visualization of this (where Blue indicates a Perry performance of 50%+; red indicating less than 50%).

You can see that Perry fell short of 50%, but only barely, in the Metroplex, slightly more so west of Houston (Ron Paul territory, incidentally), and very much so in KBH’s strongholds around San Angelo. This was offset, with Perry gaining votes on 50% in every county along the Gulf Coast.

Of course, the number of votes differs greatly by county. Not counting the numerous counties in which no votes were recorded, the vote counts ranged from a measly 3 votes in Upton County to almost 158,000 in Harris County (Houston). So here’s a map based on Perry’s relation to the 50% runoff line, in terms of raw votes (the key’s in the top left).

Perry was 16,166 votes ahead of 50%, and he built them up a great deal in metro Houston. Perry went +17,168 in Harris County, and tacked on another +5,935 in Montgomery immediately to the north and another +2,626 in Fort Bend. Other good points were: +1,654 in Nueces (Corpus Christi) and +1,452 in Bexar (San Antonio).

Where Perry’s weakness hurt him the most was clearly in the Metroplex. Perry lost -3,097 in Dallas County, -2,633 in Tarrant next door, and -1,172 in Denton up top. Rounding out the bottom 5 are Travis (Austin) at – 1,357 and a surprisingly strong Medina county, Wharton County, – 1,309.

So where does this leave us moving forward? It seems there seems to be a relative coolness towards Perry in the vote-rich Metroplex, something Bill White could capitalize on in his attempt to take back the statehouse. It’s also helpful that White’s natural base in Houston will offset some of Perry’s apparent advantage as well.

I’ll revisit the subject once the Texas Legislative Council (who are awesome at what they do) get precinct data online, but in the meantime…enjoy!

Three paragraphs of original writing, well a picture’s worth a thousand words, right?

But in all seriousness, here are maps of the Democratic primary for both Governor and Senator.

For Governor (on left), green is for Hynes, Orange for Quinn. For Senator (on right), green is for Giannoulias, Orange for Hoffman. The color scale is slightly different for Senate, since it was a three-person race, Cheryle Jackson won exactly one county. (Too many colors is part of the reason I’m not attempting to do the Republican race at this point in the night.)

As you can see, Quinn won where it mattered: his slight margin in Cook County (especially 10% margin in the city of Chicago), is what’s pulling him across the finish line. Frankly, I think Hynes screwed up with his Harold Washington ad that enraged plenty of voters. (On the bright side, I had been considering voting GOP for governor, but now that the GOP nominee is Bill Brady, the Dem is getting my vote.)

Hynes won huge in Metro-East (Madison County by 27%, St. Clair by 5%), Springfield (Sangamon County by 24%) and Decatur (Macon County by 27%). Hynes also added to his margin in North Central Illinois, winning Peoria by 2%, Bloomington (McLean County by 3%), and LaSalle/Peru by 4%. Again, Quinn won where it matters – he didn’t get completely demolished in the collar surrounding Cook County, losing Will County by 10% but eking out wins in both Lake and DuPage. Quinn’s strongest county? Jo Daivess (and you say we’re not southern!) in the northwest corner of the state, Hynes’ was Fayette in the souther-center of the state.

For Senate, Giannoulias did extremely well downstate: that solid green represents Giannoulias at 60%+ in a 3-way race. Hoffman held his own in the population centers in Chicagoland, especially the more affluent ones, stomping out wins in Lake and DuPage. Giannoulias won the city of Chicago itself, while Hoffman squeezed out an edge in the Cook suburbs. Giannoulias’ solid margins downstate were probably too much to overcome without definitive wins in Chicago and bigger wins in the suburbs. Hoffman’s best county was Lake (49.4%), worst was Rock Island (only 18.2%). Giannoulias’ best was 63.3% in Monroe, worst was Clark, the exact reverse of Cheryle Jackson. Her 23.7% in Cook was pretty important to her strong showing though.

Lastly, of note, the collar counties’ voting powers were diluted today thanks to astronomic turnout (in comparison) in Cook County:

550,000 were cast in Cook for the Democratic primary compared to 905,000 votes for Blagojevich in 2002 (when he had a very generic Dem quality), a 60% turnout ratio compared to 2002 Democratic turnout.

34,000 votes were cast in Lake compared to 76,000 for Blago (a 44% ratio). The ratio in DuPage was 42%, 37% in Kane County, and 45% in Will County. I’m guessing the (relative) high turnout in Cook County is due to our willingness to vote out Todd Stroger (incidentally, whoo Toni Preckwinkle!).

Once we get precinct results and I make the requisite shapefiles, we can break down the city of Chicago and suburban Cook County to compare areas of strength. I’ll probably do maps for that for Governor, Senate, and Cook County Board President. Let me know what other maps you’d like…

[A note to the winners: Please email me your address so that I can send you your babka! – DavidNYC]

So, I’m lazy and took my sweet time in writing this up. In my defense, Martha Coakley happened, and I chose to distract myself by working on more datasets for Dave’s App. I won’t steal Dave’s thunder, and I’ll leave it to him to announce any news on his time.

Nevertheless, here are the results from the Great Swing State Project Redistricting Contest, Round 1.

Some specifics first. I received 18 entries that were judgable; if I was missing anything from you, I tried my best to reach out and get everything I needed to judge your entry.

Of the 18 entries, with David’s generosity, I selected two winners: abgin, and MattTX2.

The first, I hope, is of no surprise – abgin’s 28-0 map, I think, made everyone’s jaw drop in its brilliance/hideousness/all-around-awesomeness. His/her entry was simply too good not to reward with babkaness!

For the other 17 entries, there was only one 26-2 plan, from silver spring. Three of you tried 28-0 plans, and the remaining 13 of you gave us 27-1 plans.

I tried to come up with some objective measures to help me consider them. Here are the two I considered:

1. To determine the amount of gerrymandering, I created a “county fragmentation index,” which indicates the number of “unnecessary” splits.

2. I also created a “swing index,” to measure quantitatively the improvements given to each district. I used a “safe line” concept (ala my New York State Senate district diary). Since reasonable people can disagree on what an appropriate safeline is, I evaluated each plan on safe lines at 1% increments from 50% Obama to 60% Obama.

Without further ado, I chose MattTX2 as the second winner. I thought he executed the screwing of Peter King in the most precise way, and as the first entrant, showed that this could be done (something I was skeptical of; I believed that the population simply wasn’t in place for that to happen.) His map also produced the best objective improvements, improving the 27 Democratic districts by an aggregate of 5,600 basis points in the 57-60% ranges, the best among the 27-1 plans. The performance, notably, didn’t drop off in the 54-56% range either. Matt’s map, compactness wise, wasn’t a horrendous gerrymander either; with 26 more county fragments than minimally necessary, this was solidly in the middle of the pack (the median, in fact.)

Here are improvement and county fragment scores for every entry.

I would be remiss in judging, though, if I didn’t mention some other notable entries:

• Abgin obviously had the loosest defintion of “contiguity”, but I think the award for loosest definition of “water contiguity” goes to andgarden.
• duffman gets the award for most compact map, creating just 11 more county fragments than necessary.
• bschak made the best attempts for population equality, acheiving a total deviation of only 3,902.
• AdmiralNaismith played population equality the loosest, racking up a total deviation of more than 113,000.
• Alibguy had the best 28-0 plan, yielding the best improvements from 52-60%.

In conclusion, thanks to everyone who participated, to Dave for developing this wonderful time-sink (I could never get GUIs down when programming), and to DavidNYC for giving me this opportunity to judge the contest, and for spreading the glory that is Green’s chocolate Babka! Congratulations again to abgin and MattTX2!

Update: I should better explain what the swing index is: the swing index is, in total, a slightly-adjusted measurement of the Democratic percentage improvement. The index is the sum, across all Democratic districts, of swings toward Obama in basis points.

When I say slightly adjusted, for example, I want to punish someone for unpacking Louise Slaughter’s district. So you have the Obama percentage before (Ob1), and the Obama percentage after (Ob2), and the “Safe line” percentage (SL).

So you have four situations:

1. Ob1 > SL, and Ob2 > SL: the district was above the safeline before, and the new district is above the safeline. The contribution to the swing index from the district is 0.

2. Ob1 < SL, and Ob2 > SL: the district used to be below the safeline, the new district was boosted above the safeline. The contribution to the swing index from the district is Ob2-Ob1, in basis points.

3. Ob1 > SL, and OB2 < SL: the old district was above the safeline, the new district was weakened. The contribution to the swing index from the district is SL-Ob2, in basis points. I did this so that you’re not being punished for an astronomic drop for a district that was much much too safe before, like Louise Slaughters.

4. Ob1 < SL, and OB2 < SL: the old and new districts are both in marginal territory; the new district could be stronger or weaker than the old. The contribution to the swing index from the district is Ob2-Ob1 in basis points. This can be positive or negative.

So I totaled up the numbers from each district, yielding the swing index that you see.

Also, the ones highlighted in green are the highest two indexes for a given safe line.

Lastly, the CFI is the “County Fragment Index” – the number of excess county fragments created over what is minimally necessary for 28 districts with perfect population equality.