Well, it’s beer o’clock here at Swing State Project, so it’s time to let loose on whatever downballot topic strikes your fancy.
Next week, once James and David have slept off their Netroots Nation-related hangovers, expect lots more analysis of the most recent round of fundraising numbers, and probably some serious remodeling of our Senate and House ratings.
Loading ...Here’s our summary of FEC filings for the quarter that ended on June 30, for the hot Senate races. (House filings are here.) The left column is total receipts for the second quarter. (This is based on slightly different criteria as ‘total raised’ from the House list, as ‘total receipts’ doesn’t include transfers between committees.) The right column is current cash on hand. All dollar amounts are in thousands.
There’s one omission: Kansas reports are not yet available, as their reporting period for 2Q covers April 1 to July 16. One other caveat: Oklahoma covers the period April 1 to July 9, although Rice’s report only runs through June 30. If there are any other races you want to know about, just ask in the comments.
| State | Candidate | Party | 2Q Receipts | CoH |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alaska | Mark Begich | D | $1,035 | $804 |
| Alaska | Ted Stevens | R-inc. | $745 | $1,681 |
| Colorado | Bob Schaffer | R | $1,431 | $2,817 |
| Colorado | Mark Udall | D | $2,039 | $3,958 |
| Idaho | Larry LaRocco | D | $233 | $242 |
| Idaho | Rex Rammell | I | $263 | $244 |
| Idaho | Jim Risch | R | $637 | $1,022 |
| Kansas | Pat Roberts | R | $971 | $2,870 |
| Kansas | Jim Slattery | D | $624 | $599 |
| Kentucky | Bruce Lunsford | D | $3,098 | $1,341 |
| Kentucky | Mitch McConnell | R-inc. | $3,021 | $9,136 |
| Louisiana | Mary Landrieu | D-inc. | $1,541 | $5,515 |
| Louisiana | John Kennedy | R | $1,458 | $2,706 |
| Maine | Tom Allen | D | $1,001 | $3,129 |
| Maine | Susan Collins | R-inc. | $1,056 | $5,133 |
| Minnesota | Norm Coleman | R-inc. | $2,390 | $7,209 |
| Minnesota | Al Franken | D | $2,337 | $4,216 |
| Mississippi | Ronnie Musgrove | D | $821 | $716 |
| Mississippi | Roger Wicker | R-inc. | $1,050 | $2,953 |
| Nebraska | Mike Johanns | R | $683 | $1,247 |
| Nebraska | Scott Kleeb | D | $700 | $454 |
| New Hampshire | Jeanne Shaheen | D | $1,630 | $2,158 |
| New Hampshire | John Sununu | R-inc. | $1,135 | $5,105 |
| New Jersey | Frank Lautenberg | D-inc. | $1,849 | $1,291 |
| New Jersey | Dick Zimmer | R | $752 | $411 |
| New Mexico | Steven Pearce | R | $1,209 | $533 |
| New Mexico | Tom Udall | D | $2,168 | $2,889 |
| North Carolina | Elizabeth Dole | R-inc. | $1,690 | $2,706 |
| North Carolina | Kay Hagan | D | $1,538 | $1,214 |
| Oklahoma | Jim Inhofe | R-inc. | $890 | $2,459 |
| Oklahoma | Andrew Rice | D | $452 | $748 |
| Oregon | Jeff Merkley | D | $1,913 | $569 |
| Oregon | Gordon Smith | R-inc. | $1,332 | $4,452 |
| Texas | Big John Cornyn | R-inc. | $1,697 | $9,368 |
| Texas | Rick Noriega | D | $966 | $916 |
| Virginia | Jim Gilmore | R | $480 | $117 |
| Virginia | Mark Warner | D | $2,929 | $5,103 |
Democratic challengers who outraised Republican incumbents for the quarter: Mark Begich (AK), Bruce Lunsford (KY), Jeanne Shaheen (NH), and Jeff Merkley (OR)
Democratic contenders who outraised Republican opponents in open seats: Mark Udall (CO), Scott Kleeb (NE), Tom Udall (NM), and Mark Warner (VA)
Republican challengers who outraised Democratic incumbents: none
Good news almost all around; you have to drop all the way down to Texas to find a Democratic contender who’s lagging in both receipts and cash on hand. One other small thing to note: check out Rex Rammell in Idaho (the conservative independent with a vendetta against Jim Risch). He’s putting his money where his mouth is, and already starting to do TV advertising. If he pulls away significant votes on Risch’s right flank, LaRocco might actually have a shot at Idaho.
This may be another one of those cases where I should wait until there’s actually been an election. But there have been a number of instances lately where I commented on a particular district’s PVI and thought to myself, “Yeah, but that PVI is going to change a lot after this election.” Nobody is polling the presidential race at the level of individual districts (except, of course, the states that have only one House district), so short of breaking out the crystal ball, I can’t address House districts with much specificity.
However, what I can do is use current polling to predict likely percentage splits for each state in 2008, and plug those numbers into the PVI formula along with the 2004 percentages to calculate new PVIs for each state. (PVI, of course, is used in the context of House districts, but the formula is easy enough, and can be applied to pretty much any unit of analysis: states, counties, legislative districts, precincts, and so on. In fact, I’m surprised it isn’t, as a means of analyzing Senate races.)
For 2008 numbers, I’m just going to use today’s projection for each state from 538.com. (These numbers fluctuate a bit every day, so this post will already be out of date tomorrow.) Not to say that Nate’s prediction model is the be-all-and-end-all, just that it’s a good model for my purposes, since it basically pushes every leaner and accounts for third-party votes (so that each total actually adds up to 100). Over the flip, for each state, is the old PVI (reflecting the 2000 and 2004 elections), the new PVI (reflecting the 2004 and 2008 elections), and the difference.
Not surprisingly (since we’re measuring the same thing, although my numbers are blunted by being averaged out with 2004 results), the “difference” results look a lot like this map Chris Bowers put together at Open Left showing the biggest shifts in the new Obama electoral map. Big D+ shifts in the West and Great Plains, R+ shifts in Appalachia and the Northeast. (This doesn’t mean that, for instance, the Northeast is most rightward or going to give a smaller percentage to Obama than Kerry. It’s more like it’s standing still while the rest of the country moves left.)
| State | 00-04 PVI | 04-08 PVI | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alabama | R+9.6 | R+11.2 | R+1.6 |
| Alaska | R+13.6 | R+8.1 | D+5.5 |
| Arizona | R+3.7 | R+4.9 | R+1.2 |
| Arkansas | R+3.3 | R+6.3 | R+3.0 |
| California | D+5.9 | D+6.9 | D+1.0 |
| Colorado | R+2.8 | R+0.5 | D+2.3 |
| Connecticut | D+7.5 | D+6.8 | R+0.7 |
| Delaware | D+5.7 | D+4.2 | R+1.5 |
| Florida | R+0.8 | R+2.2 | R+1.4 |
| Georgia | R+6.6 | R+6.3 | D+0.3 |
| Hawaii | D+7.3 | D+6.6 | R+0.7 |
| Idaho | R+18.9 | R+13.4 | D+5.5 |
| Illinois | D+6.1 | D+5.9 | R+0.2 |
| Indiana | R+8.6 | R+5.8 | D+2.8 |
| Iowa | D+0.2 | D+1.5 | D+1.3 |
| Kansas | R+11.1 | R+10.2 | D+0.9 |
| Kentucky | R+8.3 | R+9.4 | R+1.1 |
| Louisiana | R+5.1 | R+7.3 | R+2.2 |
| Maine | D+4.0 | D+6.0 | D+2.0 |
| Maryland | D+7.8 | D+7.4 | R+0.4 |
| Massachusetts | D+13.6 | D+10.1 | R+3.5 |
| Michigan | D+2.6 | D+1.9 | R+0.7 |
| Minnesota | D+2.0 | D+3.8 | D+1.8 |
| Mississippi | R+8.7 | R+7.8 | D+0.9 |
| Missouri | R+2.2 | R+2.5 | R+0.3 |
| Montana | R+10.9 | R+5.6 | D+5.3 |
| Nebraska | R+15.1 | R+12.0 | D+3.1 |
| Nevada | R+1.1 | R+1.3 | R+0.2 |
| New Hampshire | D+0.5 | D+1.8 | D+1.3 |
| New Jersey | D+6.1 | D+3.7 | R+2.4 |
| New Mexico | D+0.4 | D+1.0 | D+0.6 |
| New York | D+11.3 | D+8.7 | R+2.6 |
| North Carolina | R+5.8 | R+4.2 | D+1.6 |
| North Dakota | R+13.3 | R+8.2 | D+5.1 |
| Ohio | R+0.9 | D+0.2 | D+1.1 |
| Oklahoma | R+12.8 | R+12.8 | R+0.0 |
| Oregon | D+1.6 | D+3.1 | D+1.5 |
| Pennsylvania | D+2.2 | D+2.1 | R+0.1 |
| Rhode Island | D+13.0 | D+10.6 | R+2.4 |
| South Carolina | R+7.8 | R+6.4 | D+1.4 |
| South Dakota | R+10.6 | R+7.0 | D+3.6 |
| Tennessee | R+4.1 | R+7.4 | R+3.3 |
| Texas | R+10.6 | R+8.1 | D+2.5 |
| Utah | R+21.8 | R+17.9 | D+3.9 |
| Vermont | D+8.0 | D+11.1 | D+3.1 |
| Virginia | R+3.6 | R+2.1 | D+1.5 |
| Washington | D+3.7 | D+4.6 | D+0.9 |
| West Virginia | R+4.3 | R+5.4 | R+1.1 |
| Wisconsin | D+0.6 | D+2.3 | D+1.7 |
| Wyoming | R+19.5 | R+14.0 | D+5.5 |
Now you might be sitting there thinking “Yeah, but I really want to know how Congressional District X is going to change!” Well, here’s a very rough method you might use: take the difference from the state where the district is, and apply it to the district. I’ll use my home district (WA-07) as an example. It’s currently D+30.3. Add D+0.9, and the adjusted PVI is D+31.2.
(Again, this is a rough method… different parts of different states are reddening or bluening at different rates. For instance, Seattle might not be bluening as fast as the sagebrush parts of the state; it’s kind of maxed out on liberalism, while eastern Washington has lots in common with Idaho, Montana, etc., where Obama is making up the most ground. On the other hand, because 2000 and the huge Nader effect that occurred is dropping out of the equation, maybe the PVI will shoot up even more in Seattle. Hard to tell, so just exercise your judgment.)
One last question, as a bonus. Does this rough method change the most and least liberal districts in the nation? Well, NY-16 is still safe in its position at #1, although it drops from D+43.4 to a nice moderate D+40.8. However, the most conservative district changes, as Utah is rapidly going one direction and Alabama is going the other. UT-03 falls from R+26.2 to R+22.3, while AL-06 goes up from R+25.2 to a batshit insane R+26.8.
Lake Research Partners for Gerry Connolly (7/10-14, likely voters):
Gerry Connolly (D): 52
Keith Fimian (R): 21
(MoE: ±4.4%)
Public Opinion Strategies for Steve Chabot (6/30-7/2, likely voters):
Steve Driehaus (D): 37
Steve Chabot (R-inc.): 50
(MoE: ±4.9%)
Got the salt shaker ready? Hot on the heels of the laughable poll released yesterday in NJ-07 come a couple more internal polls from big House races where Democratic pickups are likely. Surprise surprise: each one shows the person who commissioned the poll up by a huge margin.
The Virginia poll isn’t that bizarre: it probably reflects that most people in the district know exactly who Gerry Connolly is, as he represents most of them as Fairfax County Supervisor and just got out of a headline-grabbing primary with another well-known local Dem, Leslie Byrne. And few know who Keith Fimian is (he’s never held office; he’s independently wealthy from his home inspection business). I don’t expect to see Connolly double-up on Fimian in November like here, but he’s gotta be seen as a clear favorite.
And I do note one area of weakness in OH-01: Steve Chabot, who has represented Cincinnati since 1994, is polling only right at the 50% danger mark in his own poll? Driehaus, who is a state representative (and thus familiar only to a portion of OH-01) can only go up from here, but Chabot may be near his ceiling. This one will be close (like almost every race for Chabot).
http://www.politico.com/blogs/…
A Connelly internal poll has Connelly leading, however, I am more open to his internal polling because his internal had him crushing Byrne, and it came true.
Gerry Connolly (D) – 52%
Keith Fimian (R) – 21%
Lake Research Partners. 400 People. July 10-14. MoE 4.4%
http://www.politico.com/blogs/…
Chabot Internal poll has Chabot up by 13 points in his race against Dreihaus
Steve Chabot (R-Inc.) – 50%
Steve Dreihaus (D) – 37%
Public Opinion Strategies. 400 likely voters. June 30-July 2. MoE 4.9%
Also interesting Information: DSCC has reserved 6 Million dollars in Ad time against Dole.
Unlike Kennedy’s mediocre kickoff party, Landrieu has really put the campaign into high gear. She has been through more than one hundred small towns across Louisiana since the year began, and recently began a big campaign swing through Baton Rouge, Lafayette, Monroe, Shreveport, Alexandria, Lake Charles and New Orleans; every major metropolitan area in the state.
She’s beating Kennedy to the airwaves, with her first ad about to go up, and available for viewing on her website, http://www.marylandrieu.com. She also pulled out the endorsements of 68 mayors yesterday.
Adding to the excitement Baton Rouge Daily Advertiser poltical columnist John Maginnis wrote: “has made impressive inroads in the GOP strongholds of Jefferson and St. Tammany parishes, where Republican elected officials laud her recovery efforts, and among business contributors who value her seniority in a largely junior delegation.” Confirming what Democrats have already said. He stated that Landrieu has criss-crossed the state announcing grants, and accepting endorsements, while Kennedy has not being much of anything but raising money. In short, the ground game is not even close at this point in time.
Let me give you the story on St. Tammany. St. Tammany parish is part ofthe suburban Northshore of New Orleans, it’s more affluent, white, and heavily Republican. It’s part of overwhelmingly Republican LA-01, which gave Bush 71% of the vote in 2004, and,with an estimated population of over 200,000 it compromises a full third of the districts population. Recently, the President of the Parish Police Jury, (like a county commission of sort, or county wide council that serves as the main governing body) Republican Kevin Davis endorsed Landrieu, citing her seniority and his personal experience working with her to get Katrina aid. At this kick off rally Mayson Foster, the mayor of Hammond, a port city of some 70,000, endorsed her, Candace Watkins, the Mayor of Covington, the small county seat, and the Parish accessor Patricia Core, all Republicans, endorsed Landrieu. The polling trends show more of the same, Landrieu is dominating in the entire New Orleans metro area, which includes much of the more conservative suburbs, she’s dominating in the Baton Rouge area, and she’s dominating as always in the Cajun, Bayou region of Charlie Melancon’s district. (By the way, pronounce that name Meh-laun-sawn, not Meh-lan-con, as I have heard it pronounced before). Kennedy is in the race because of huge leads in north Louisiana, where you’d think Landrieu and Obama were both the anti-Christ, (though Caddo and Rapides, the two most populous Parishes are trending Democratic, and heavy turnout among the black vote should ensure that both of these areas go Democratic, and then you also have some of the heavily black, rural counties, and a few traditionally Democratic areas that still vote that way), and an equally large lead in the southwest Acadiana area of Louisiana which has only grown more and more conservative as Lafayette’s population growth has been among the oil industry which has made a bunch of people very wealthy. A heavy black turnout here,and in Lake Charles and Opelousas would definitely help Landrieu. That’s why it’s good that Don Cravins Jr. is running, his presence and GOTV efforts drive even more voters to the polls.
Landrieu has gotten plenty of good press in the last week for rerouting 85 million dollars in Hurricane aid back to Louisiana, were in can be distributed to those storm refugees who are still in need of aid, and for announcing she had procured forty million dollars worth of funding for a biodiesel cellular plant in Jennings, La.
New Orleans Time-Picayune columnist Stephanie Grace wrote today that ‘Sen. Landrieu is in the strongest position of her career.’
In addition, I cannot wait for Landrieu to release the ad showing what Kennedy said just four years while endorsing John Kerry, namely that that the policies of George Bush were “cold and mean” and that his tax policy was “nonsense on a stick.” He later criticized the eventual winner, David Vitter, as a lackey of the Bush administration. Of course that was then, that was before Bush’s most corrupt and high level associate, Karl Rove had a talk with him, that was when he was running a populist campaign to the left of the establishment Democrat, Rep. Chris John, this is now, when he’s running as a new found conservative Republican. I’m sure that Kennedy would lose support within right wing base, with its hatred of flip floppers, when they hear about his change in heart. Of course, that didn’t stop Vitter from becoming his best bud, though thankfully Vitter’s popular image is shattered at the moment, and he has no political capital to help Kennedy.
The good news from this, it shows that Kennedy’s political views are completely amendable to whatever is politically expediant. It shows that if he wins, once elected, the Democrats have a large majority and more to offer him than Republicans, that he would ditch them in a heartbeat. Kennedy’s unscrupulous, and will do whatever it takes to get himself more power in the short term.
Among the more ridiculous statements that Kennedy has made is that Landrieu’s endorsement of Obama embodies the liberalism of old Europe. One, liberalism in Europe didn’t turn out so bad, because those countries have surpassed in amny areasdue to the Bush administrations incompetence, and the deteriorating state of our national infrastructures due to lackof money and innovation. Two, even more importantly, the connection even sounds irrelevant, and I don’t even get it. Three, voters are not concerned with Europe, or who she endorsed, they are concerned with the issues and who is going to do more for them.
Louisiana has lost most of its seniority. It invested all its eggs in Republicans, and then they lost control of Congress and it’s most powerful Republican retired, and the second retired. Then Rep. Jefferson lost all power due to corruption, and Vitter is ranked 85th in the Senate power scale. Landrieu is 10th, and holds spots on the Armed Services Committee and Appropriations Committee, as well as twelve years of Seniority. That is another reason why most of the down state business interests, in Baton Rouge, and New Orleans, and even the very conservative suburbs of LA-01, are tactically supporting Landrieu. She has a conservative record for a Democrat, so they can swallow it, and they want the person that can get the most done for them, and three it helps build relationships with the national party, who, as the majoriity party, you want good connections with, it’s just smart politics. This was seen in the Louisiana Chamber of Commerce’s endorsement of Landrieu a few months ago.
Finally, analysts are starting to realize that the damage to the LA-DP due to Katrina and Rita is not cataclysmic as they predicted for years, all the while writing obits for every Democratic statewide office holder. There was still a large loss of voters, and that Landrieu is doing this well is amazing, but, the Democratic trends in LA-04, and LA-06, the Shreveport and Baton Rouge metropolitan areas, respectively, have helped the party and pundits predict Democrats could hold both seats. In addition, Rapides Parish, home of the Alexandria statistical metropolitan area, and which is located in LA-05, Rodney Alexander’s district, is growing more Democratic, in voter registration, and voting registration.
Here is a layout of voter Demographics in major Parishes:
In the LA-06 special election we were helped by the favorable voter registration Demographics in East Baton Rouge, and that is what is making the district trend Democratic. There is a ten point gender gap, 55-45 in the women’s favor, which only helps Democrats because as a whole women tend to have more sense than men, (maybe its because they don’t have the testosterone), and are therefore more Democratic, it’s 39% black, and the largest age group, at 28.3%, is the 18-34 group, likely due to the presence of LSU. And, nationwide, that group is the most liberal emergin voting bloc. The actual number of registered Democrats does really matter in Louisiana because the numbers are grossly inflated with heritage Democrats who never actually vote for Democrats, or only do so on rare occasion.
In LA-04, Caddo Parishes registration Demographics will be an enormous asset, and explain it’s Democratic trend. 57% of its 157 thousand registered voters are women, 42% are black, and 25.5% are in the 18-34 age demographic that has proven to be some ten points favorable to Democrats than other age groups, in most states at least.
Rapides Parish also has a large gender gap, of nearly eleven points. 55.4, to 44.4, in favor of woman. Intersting to see was that only 21,000 black voters, or 27% of total voters, were registered to vote. This is not even half of the black population, and that means there is room to grow here by getting more voters registered. 23.6% of voters are in the 18-34 voter Demographic.
There are some Democratic oasis’ in Kennedy’s stronghold in Acadiana. 73% of Evageline Parishes voters are registered Democrats, which, even in Louisiana, gives any Democratic candidate a solid edge among its 22 thousand voters. There are others, Point Coupee, Iberville, Red River, and the three Mississippi delta parishes in Northeast Louisiana which are all mostly black, East Caroll, Tensas, and Nachitidotches Parish, in central Louisiana, a very Democratic area.
The two Congressional districts that are trending Democratic, and look like they could both be in our hands, LA-04 and LA-06, are actually very much alike. There’s a 9-10 point gender gap, just like their largest parishes, and the 18-34 voter Demographic is easily the largest in both.
Doing well enough in those parishes and holding down his margins in others would keep his margins down in the rest of Louisiana. If she can almost win a Parish like St. Tammany, and dominate in conservative leaning Orleans suburb parishes like Jefferson and St. Bernard, she can win this election. So, the demographics of the state are not against her, especially as the more and more black voters have registered, which only helps because her family has always done really well within the black community, starting with here father who was the last white mayor of New Orleans, in 1978, partly due to the fact that years earlier, he was the only white state Representative to oppose a Southern Manifesto like bill supporting segregation, and was defeated in reelection because of it.
All in all, it’s been a pretty good week for Landrieu, and the poll doesn’t show it because it was commissioned before the week began.
P.S. Please vote in the poll. There’s no counter built in, so I use to see how many people read something. So, if you read this, please vote, so I can satisfy my own curiosity.
Loading ...Charlie Cook’s folks have just released new ratings for four key senate races. Thay are as follows:
Oregon: Lean R to Toss-Up
North Carolina: Likely R to Lean R
New Mexico: Toss-Up to Lean D
Kentucky: Solid R to Likely R
The blue bus keeps on rolling. I’ll keep you updated on any further changes for today.
This diary will be short and quick because I have to get to work, but I didn’t see Tudor’s fundraising results in the roundup.
12th Congressional District
Of the more than $1.35 million that Putnam, the No. 3 Republican in the U.S. House, has raised for his re-election campaign, his filing with the FEC this week shows he had nearly $672,000 still in the bank.
Democrat Douglas Tudor of Riverview, who is retired from the Navy, has raised more than $50,000, including a $25,000 loan to his campaign from himself. He reported $40,649 in the bank as of June 30.
I think that’s pretty good for someone who got started late, who is a family man with little to no connections in politics, and who just retired from the Navy at the end of February to run for this seat. It also looks like he is running a very efficient campaign, with about 80% of the cash he raised still on hand.
Hopefully he will catch on more from here. I think this is one of the most underreported races in the blogosphere. He’s a fighting dem that is unashamed about being a progressive, and he’s taking on the Republican establishment.
Schuring Bought by Big Oil, Corporate Executives that Slash 16th District Jobs
Canton, OH – 16th Congressional District Candidate John Boccieri raised $391,237.61 in the second fundraising quarter of 2008, bringing his total raised this cycle to $1,081,509.40 and his current cash on hand to $531,015.15.
Boccieri has a broad base of small donors. More than half of his contributions this quarter were $100 or less, and three in five of those small donations came from within the 16th District.
Schuring, who raised the state gas tax, has taken over $20,000 from oil executives, and fully two thirds of his funds this quarter came from big-money backers like Hoover and Timken who have laid off thousands of area workers within the past five years.
Senator Major John Boccieri(D), of Alliance, Ohio stated:
“I’m getting grassroots support from people who are fighting to keep their jobs while my opponent takes checks from the executives who are shipping their jobs away. The more people find out that Kirk Schuring is bankrolled by big oil executives and corporate job-killers, the more excited they get about our campaign. My supporters know that I’ll fight for lower energy costs, better health care, and the good jobs that our middle class families need.”
Rasmussen (7/14, likely voters) (6/11 in parentheses):
Jim Slattery (D): 30 (39)
Pat Roberts (R-inc.): 57 (48)
(MoE: ±4.5%)
Rasmussen (7/9, likely voters) (6/10 in parentheses):
Tim Johnson (D-inc.): 60 (60)
Joel Dykstra (R): 35 (34)
(MoE: ±4%)
Rasmussen (7/10, likely voters) (6/10 in parentheses):
Tom Harkin (D-inc.): 52 (53)
Christopher Reed (R): 36 (37)
(MoE: ±4%)
Rasmussen unleashed a torrent of midwest Senate polls yesterday and today. Kansas is the only eye-opener here. After their previous poll showed ex-Rep. Jim Slattery showing surprising strength against three-term Sen. Pat Roberts (and Roberts in the danger zone below 50%), things gravitated back toward more typical second-tier numbers this month.
Democratic Senators Johnson and Harkin both seem entirely safe. In fact, the big surprise is that Johnson, who, until New Jersey became interesting, was usually slotted in as the GOP’s second-best pickup opportunity after Landrieu (more a statement on their paltry chances than on actual likelihood of flipping the seat), is safer than Harkin. (Although I’m not sure Harkin has ever broken 60% in a Senate race, so maybe it’s not that surprising.)