Month: July 2008

National Research Inc. for Leonard Lance (6/24-25, likely voters):

Linda Stender (D): 35

Leonard Lance (R): 42

(MoE: ±5.6%)

This is an internal poll by a GOP pollster, the kind that only gets released if it has ridiculously showy results for the candidate who commissioned it, so take it with the requisite bucket of salt. But I haven’t seen any polling of the open seat in NJ-07 before (or any hot northeast House races, come to think of it), so I thought I’d put it out there.

The poll shows both candidates little-known, with state senator Lance with a 20% favorable and 11% unfavorable rating, and Stender in a puzzling pickle, with unfavorables (29%) greater than her favorables (20%). Stender has a huge edge in cash on hand, though (more than $1 million), so possibly look for an ad blitz to try and ‘fix’ that soon.

Hot on the heels of the news that Don Young was outraised in Q2 by both primary opponent Sean Parnell and likely general election opponent Ethan Berkowitz is one more thing Young’s gotta worry about: the Club for Growth just made a $100,000 TV ad buy targeting him. (And in Alaska’s cheapo media market, $100,000 goes a long, long way.)

The 15-second ads hit Alaska’s avuncular, blustery, corrupt GOP representative over seemingly out-of-context comments in favor of a higher gas tax.

“I’d suggest we raise the taxes to a dollar a gallon,” Young says in a clip in one of the ads. “That makes you put your money where your mouth is.”

The Club for Growth has endorsed Parnell over Young’s addiction to pork. Unfortunately (for our pickup chances), while polls show Young losing to Berkowitz, they show the ostensibly ‘clean’ Parnell beating Berkowitz, and CFG’s moneybomb makes its likelier than Parnell wins the Aug. 26 primary. As I’ve said before, it’s a case of “Vote for the crook, it’s important!”

Rasmussen (7/15, likely voters) (6/11 in parentheses):

Jeff Merkley (D): 43 (38)

Gordon Smith (R-inc.): 41 (47)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

I was not expecting this, at least not so soon, but now we have a public poll that shows Jeff Merkley with a very small lead over Gordon Smith in the Oregon Senate race. (Rasmussen also now gives alternate results with ‘leaners’ pushed: if so, the race is tied at 46/46.)

Smith’s favorability numbers have also dropped since the last poll. Last time, 58% of voters viewed him either very or somewhat favorably; this month it’s 53%. Coupled with a re-elect number well below 50%, and with only a 3% edge among men, that all spells trouble for Gordo. Maybe all the lashing himself to the mast of the Good Ship Obama isn’t helping him much.

This latest in my continuing series of diaries on Oregon politics will discuss the current status of Oregon’s political landscape by using voter registration as a guide.  With this model, we can see clearly how strongly the Democratic party is positioned for this fall.

Cross-Posted from Loaded Orygun: http://www.loadedorygun.net/sh…

Key:

Names listed are those of the party’s candidate holding the seat.

For Congressional districts, multiply the State Senate values by five.

Strong District: Oregon House Voter Reg. Difference 10k or more, Senate Voter Reg. 20k or more.

Likely District: Oregon House 5-10k Difference, Senate 10-20k Difference.

Lean District: Oregon House 3-5k Difference, Senate 6-9k Difference.

Tossup District: Oregon House less than 3k Difference, Senate less than 6k Difference.

*=Opposition party has registration edge of 1k or more.

x=Candidate is unopposed (by a major party candidate).

All values are rounded to the nearest thousand, source of data is: http://www.sos.state.or.us/elections/may202008/p08stats.pdf.

My read on the state of the races is here: http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/7/10/12954/7313/791/549408.

Congressional Races:

District 1 (D): D+ 57k, Likely D.

District 2 (R): R+ 33k, Leans R.

District 3 (D): D+ 125k, Strong D.

District 4 (D): D+ 36k, Leans D.

District 5 (D): D+ 19k, Tossup.

Oregon Legislature:

Oregon Senate:

Current Composition: 18D, 11R, 1 I.

Seats NOT up for re-election this year:

Total: 14 (Due to a vacancy filler election in one district).

D-Held: 10.

R-Held; 4.

Summary:

Strong D: 3

Likely D: 2

Lean D: 3

Tossup D: 1.

Strong R: 0.

Likely R: 2.

Leans R: 3.

Tossup R: 2.

Uncontested Races:

D-Held: 5, 3 Strong, 2 Lean.

R-Held: 3, 1 Likely, 2 Lean.

Districts in which the opposition party has a voter registration edge:

D: 1, Westlund’s seat.

R: 0.

Up For Re-Election:

Strong Districts:

21 (SE Portland)-Rosenbaum (D)-x.

22 (Portland)-Carter (D)-x.

23 (NE Portland)-Dingfelder (D)-x.

Likely Districts:

2 (Central Point)-Atkinston (R).

17 (Beaverton)-Bonamicci (D)-2 year vacancy filler)

18 (Tigard/SW Portland)-Burdick (D).

28 (Klamath Falls)-Whitsett (R)-x.

Lean Districts:

1 (Roseburg)-Kruse (R).

5 (Lincoln City)-Verger (D)-x.

14 (West Slope)-Hass (D).

25 (Gresham)-Monnes Anderson (D)-x.

29 (Pendleton)-Nelson (R)-x.

30 (Ontario)-Ferriolli (R)-x.

Tossup Districts:

9 (Stayton)-Girod (R).

12 (McMinville)-Boquist (R).

27 (Bend)-Telfer (R)*-Pickup from Westlund (D).

Oregon House:

All the seats are up for election this year.

Current Composition: 31D, 29R.

Summary:

Strong D: 9.

Likely D: 10.

Leans D: 7.

Tossup D: 5.

Strong R: 0.

Likely R: 4.

Leans R: 5.

Tossup R: 20.

Uncontested Races:

D-Held: 19, 7 Strong, 6 Likely, 4 Lean, 2 Tossup.

R-Held: 6, 4 Likely, 1 Lean, 1 Tossup.

Districts in which the opposition party has a voter registration edge:

D-Held: 0.

R-Held: 6 (Berger, Nelsen, Lim, Flores, Lindland, Burley).

Strong Districts:

8 (Eugene)-Holvey (D)-x.

33 (Portland)-Greenlick (D)-x.

36 (Portland)-Nolan (D).

41 (Milwaukie)-Tomei (D).

42 (Portland)-Koppel-Bailey (D)-x.

43 (Portland)-Shields (D)-x.

44 (Portland)-Kotek (D)-x.

45 (Portland)-Dembrow (D)-x.

46 (Portland)-Cannon (D)-x.

Likely Districts:

4 (Central Point)-Richardson (R)-x.

5 (Ashland)-Buckley (D)-x.

10 (Newport)-Cowan (D)-x.

11 (Eugene)-Barnhart (D)-x.

12 (Springfield)-Beyer (D).

13 (Eugene)-Nathanson (D)-x.

16 (Corvallis)-Gelser (D).

27 (West Slope, my district!)-Read (D).

31 (Clatskanie)-Witt (D)-x.

38 (Lake Oswego)-Garrett (D).

47 (Portland)-J. Smith (D)-x.

55 (Medford)-Gilliam (R)-x.

56 (Klamath Falls)-Garrard (R)-x.

60 (Ontario)-Benz (R)-x.

Lean Districts:

2 (Myrtle Creek)-Freeman (R).

3 (Grants Pass)-Maurer (R).

6 (Medford)-Esquivel (R).

9 (Coos Bay)-Roblan (D).

14 (Eugene)-Edwards (D)-x.

28 (Beaverton)-Barker (D)-x.

34 (Beaverton)-Harker (D).

35 (Tigard)-Galizio (D).

40 (Oregon City)-Hunt (D)-x.

48 (Happy Valley)-Schaufler (D)-x.

53 (Sunriver)-Whisnant (R).

57 (Heppner)-G. Smith (R)-x.

Tossup Districts:

1 (Gold Beach)-Krieger (R).

7 (Roseburg)-Hanna (R).

15 (Albany)-Olson (R).

17 (Scio)-Sprenger (R).

18 (Silverton)-Gilliam (R).

19 (Salem)-Cameron (R).

20 (Independence/Monmouth)-Berger (R)*.

21 (Salem)-Clem (D)-x.

22 (Woodburn)-Komp (D).

23 (Dallas)-Thompson (R).

24 (McMinnville)-Wiedner (R).

25 (Keizer)-Thatcher (R)-x.

26 (Wilsonville)-Wingard (R).

29 (Hillsboro)-Riley (D).

30 (Hillsboro)-Edwards (D).

32 (Cannon Beach)-Boone (D)-x.

37 (West Linn)-Bruun (R).

39 (Canby)-Kennemer (R).

49 (Gresham)-Nelsen (R)*.

50 (Fairview)-Lim (R)*.

51 (Clackamas)-Flores (R)*.

52 (Corbett)-Lindland (R)*.

54 (Bend)-Burley (R)*.

58 (Pendleton)-Jenson (R).

59 (The Dalles)-Huffman (R).

Let me know what you think.

This is it. The deadline for congressional candidates to file their second quarter fundraising reports with the FEC passed at midnight, and SSP has combed through hundreds of filings to bring you a collection of all the noteworthy numbers. While this list is fairly massive, it is by no means comprehensive. If we’ve missed anything, or if you spot any errors, please let us know in the comments. And remember: these numbers are adjusted for rounding. The second column shows cash-on-hand, and the third shows cycle-to-date fundraising.

A few notes before we begin:

• Candidates in Kansas, Michigan and Missouri will file their extended period reports by 7/24, which is why several rows are blank here. Candidates in Oklahama will file their reports by 7/17.
• All NC and IN filings cover the period from 4/17-6/30.
• All PA filings cover the period from 4/3-6/30.
• The MS-01 numbers cover the period from 4/24-630.
• The LA-06 and LA-01 numbers cover the period from 4/14-6/30.
• GA filings in italics cover the period from 4/1-6/25.
• All numbers are in thousands.

A few quick notes before I pass out:

• Democratic challengers who out-raised Republican incumbents: Ethan Berkowitz (AK-AL), Joshua Segall (AL-03), Debbie Cook (CA-46), Nick Leibham (CA-50), Betsy Markey (CO-04), Raul Martinez (FL-21), Suzanne Kosmas (FL-24), Joe Garcia (FL-25), Michael Montagano (IN-03), Jill Derby (NV-02), Dina Titus (NV-03), Vic Wulsin (OH-02), Linda Ketner (SC-01), Michael Skelly (TX-07), Larry Joe Doherty (TX-10), and Darcy Burner (WA-08).
• Republican challengers who out-raised Democratic incumbents: Deborah “The Defrauder” Honeycutt (GA-13), Anne Northup (KY-03), Chris Hackett (PA-10, William Russell (PA-12), Pete Olson (TX-22), John Gard (WI-08).
• PA-12: Who is William Russell, you ask? Answer: Someone, like Deborah Honeycutt, who has spent most of his money on fees to direct mail firms.
• ID-01: Someone help out Bill Sali. He’s been having computer problems and hasn’t been able to file his report.
• LA-06: Looks like the Prince of Pop will need that cash back on his Discover card before he’s back at the break-even point.
• AK-AL: Don Young is just circling the drain. Yet another quarter passes by where he hemorrhages more money: $251K spent vs. $106K brought in. Included in his expenditures are some hefty legal fees: nearly $50K to Akin Gump, $25K to Tobin O’Connor, and $55K to John Wolfe.
• There is a lot of great news for Democrats here, but in particular, the numbers for Jim Himes (CT-04), Ashwin Madia (MN-03), Martin Heinrich (NM-01), Darcy Burner (WA-08), Raul Martinez (FL-21) and Joe Garcia (FL-25) are absolutely stunning. In some races that are still under the radar, Democrats posted solid numbers, including Scott Harper (IL-13), Nick Leibham (CA-50), Sharen Neuhardt (OH-07), Jim Esch (NE-02), Dennis Shulman (NJ-05), Sam Bennett (PA-15), and Judy Feder (VA-10).

Stay tuned for SSP’s updated House and Senate ratings, as well as our next SSP Cash Power chart in the next couple of days.

DENVER AIRPORT UPDATE: One thing that I forgot to mention…

• MS-01: Greg Davis’ heart just isn’t in it anymore. Despite raising over $700K from April 24 through June 30th, the Nathan Lane lookalike took in under $10,000 in the month of June.

[Cross-posted at Daily Kos, Swing State Project, Reno & Its Discontents]

http://www.jillderby.com

I’m Jill Derby, Democratic Candidate for Congress in Nevada’s Second Congressional District.  Many of you know me from 2006 when I ran for this seat against Republican Dean Heller.  Well, I’m back.  And I’m running to change the way business is done in Washington.

When Heller went to Washington after our very close race, many here in Nevada hoped that he would be an independent, moderate voice for Nevada.  Dean Heller has let them down.  Heller has stood as a rubber stamp for the Bush Administration from his very first day in the House, voting over 92% of the time with the party.  That record, and the continued decline of our great nation has me back in this race.

More below the fold…

The growth of the Netroots community has been remarkable over the last half-decade.  You have renewed and revitalized progressive discourse in America using a new medium, playing a powerful and ever-growing role in the success of Democratic candidates across the country.  I am excited to have the opportunity to meet many of you in person this weekend at Netroots Nation in Austin, where I will be on Friday’s “Future Leaders” panel with Jim Himes (CT-04), Dan Seals (IL-10) and Annette Taddeo (FL-18), and later at the Netroots Candidates Celebration.  But before we get a chance to meet in person, I wanted to tell you a bit more about myself and my race.

I am not a career politician.  I am an activist like many of you, who got my start in politics fighting for the Equal Rights Amendment in the 1970s.  Since then I have stayed active, serving on Nevada’s Board of Regents, and later as Chair of the Nevada Democratic Party.

I have always taken a strong stand against the Iraq War.  I opposed it from Day 1.  When my good friend Darcy Burner called me to about a plan she was putting together to find a comprehensive solution to the Iraq War and the problems it had created, I was thrilled to sign on as one of its first supporters.   The Responsible Plan to End the War in Iraq is committed to bringing our troops home from Iraq and repairing the damage done to our democracy by eight years of Republican mismanagement.

I stand together with many members of the Netroots community in supporting our civil rights and condemning the recent passage of the FISA amendments granting retroactive immunity to the telecom industry.  Here in Nevada, we take our civil liberties very seriously.  This abdication of the constitution by the Bush Administration, supported by my right-wing opponent Dean Heller, has let big telecom off the hook.  This was wrong, plain and simple.

I stand together with members of the Netroots in supporting the working and middle classes of America.  Nevada has the highest rate of home foreclosures per capita in the United States.  We have a high rate of bankruptcy as well.  I stand with my friends in organized labor in supporting a living wage, healthcare for all Americans, secure retirement benefits, and the right to collective bargaining.  I am appalled by the assault on middle America, with gas prices rising and bankruptcy protections eroded at the same time that oil companies make record profits and Republicans–including my opponent–refuse to make critical investments in energy independence and renewables.

Since November of 2006, the Republican registration advantage in this district has been cut by a remarkable 40%, from 48,000 to 29,000.  This 19,000 voter Democratic shift is more than 50% greater than Heller’s margin of victory in 2006.

I just outraised my opponent by over nearly 30% this quarter and am quickly gaining ground on him as his far right voting record becomes better known throughout the district.

We have a real race on our hands in this R+8 district and I am thrilled to have a chance to earn the support of the Nevada Netroots and those of you across the nation.  I look forward to meeting many of you this weekend in Austin.  And I look forward to working together in the coming months to set America back on track.  

www.jillderby.com

People can say what they want about Heather Ryan, and her campaign, Ryan for Kentucky. The fact of the matter is that this young lady is not only extremely smart, and compassionate, but courageous. She knows full well that the Republicans in this district will once again try to use social issues to divide us and defeat Progress in this country.

One of these issues that the Republicans use is Abortion. The mere dropping of the “A” bomb gets emotions and tempers on both sides of that issue boiling. Having worked for NARAL, trying to limit the number of unwanted pregnancies, hence abortions, Heather wanted to get out ahead of Exxon Eddie, and pre-empt the divisive campaigning that we know he will use. Please see Heather’s remarks here:

You know, a few months ago I volunteered to work for Heather Ryan, and it seems that everyday, she does something else that makes me so very proud of that decision. She has shown great courage in breaking with most of our Party’s leadership on FISA, and now in trying to explain with sanity her position on a very divisive issue.

I believe Heather is exactly right on this issue. The Republicans controlled our government for years before 2006 and none of them ever did one thing to try and outlaw abortion. Definately not Exxon Ed Whitfield. I believe a lot of the reason is that they wanted a wedge issue to constantly pull out of their “bag of tricks” to divide America and win elections. They did nothing for the right-wing activists that elected them on this issue, and still seek the moral high ground.

Heather is right. We can find common ground. Instead of arguing on the legality of abortion, why can’t we all work together to curtail the NEED for this controversial practice? Why can’t we invest in the education and healthcare of our own people, particularly our young to stop unwanted pregnancies and end much of the need for abortions? Why do the Republicans slash funding for programs that do just that if they are so “Pro-Life”?

Heather Ryan is just what we need in Washington. A Democratic leader that seeks to unite our country on even the most controversial issues, and find real solutions to our problems, not talking points to attack the other side with. Heather represents a new generation of leadership, my generation stepping to the plate to do their civic duty in the governing of our country, and quite frankly I am proud of what I see.

Please help us in electing a great grassroots Democrat with the intelligence, drive, and most of all GUTS to lead and fight for us on all issues!! You can do so here:

 

Polls are now closed in the runoff elections for the GOP nominations in two open House seats in Alabama. We’ll be using this thread to follow the returns as they come in.

Results: Associated Press | County-by-County (AP)

9:46PM: Well: that’s that. The AP has called this one for Jay Love (and Wayne Parker, for that matter). So does this mean that George Jones will now be voting for Bobby Bright?

9:24PM: With 67% reporting, Love has a 58-42 lead. I’m not sure if there are enough Wiregrass precincts left to make this one close.

8:57PM: With 18% reporting, Love has pulled to a 56-42 lead.

8:43PM ET: With 3% of precincts reporting, Jay Love is leading Harri Anne Smith by 54-46. I’m hoping that Smith can pull off a miracle here (due to the simple fact that Love is the NRCC’s choice), but either candidate will emerge battered. Over in AL-05, Wayne Parker is crushing.