Month: June 2009

You can count Heath Shuler out of the race to beat GOP Sen. Richard Burr in 2010:

U.S. Rep. Heath Shuler shot down speculation today that he is still pondering a run for Senate.

“I am not running for Senate,” the second-term Democrat said after a ground-breaking ceremony for a new building at the Bent Creek Experimental Forest Station in Asheville. “I am not running for Senate. I am not running for Senate. I have said that a thousand times, and I don’t know why they keep coming up (with the idea). Of course they keep coming up and running polls.”

Dems still have quite a few options to choose from to make a race of this, but if they’re looking to NC’s House delegation to land a recruit, Mike McIntyre is the only option who’s still giving the race serious consideration.

Sorry, open seat fans:

Rep. Jan Schakowsky (D-Ill.) has decided not to run for Senate in 2010, according to an announcement from her campaign. Schakowsky said Monday that she will run for re-election in her northern Chicago district instead of competing for the seat currently held by Sen. Rolland Burris (D-Ill.).

With Schakowsky now out of the picture, we can turn our eyes to Illinois AG Lisa Madigan, who is keeping her options open for 2010. While the nomination would be hers for the taking, somehow I’d still be surprised if she decided to pursue the opportunity.

UPDATE (David): I would like to commend Schakowsky for keeping her word on this announcement. Back in April, she said she’d decide by June 8th, and lo and behold, she has. This is in contrast to Mark Kirk, who also set a self-imposed deadline and then proceeded to ignore it.

SurveyUSA (6/5-7, likely voters, 5/31-6/2 in parens):

Terry McAuliffe (D): 30 (35)

Brian Moran (D): 21 (26)

Creigh Deeds (D): 42 (29)

Other/Undecided: 7 (11)

(MoE: ±4.3%)

Looking good for Deeds. General election match-ups (registered voters):

Creigh Deeds (D): 43 (43)

Bob McDonnell (R): 47 (44)

Terry McAuliffe (D): 41 (40)

Bob McDonnell (R): 48 (47)

Brian Moran (D): 38 (37)

Bob McDonnell (R): 49 (48)

(MoE: ±2.4%)

If South Carolina does gain a district, as projected, it will be possible to make that new district a second majority African American one.

Here’s one such map that does this:



(Full Resolution)

Charleston:

Columbia:

The racial demographics of the two districts are:

District 6 (Charleston based):

Black: 341,718 (53.4%)

White: 263,579 (41.2%)

Other (inc. Hispanic): 34,797 (5.4%)

District 7 (Columbia based):

Black: 357,623 (55.9%)

White: 242,185 (37.9%)

Other: 39,613 (6.2%)

Even if the DOJ doesn’t mandate the creation of new African American district, the Republican controlled legislature may want to create one anyway, since it would shore up the 1st and 2nd districts, both of which had strong challenges last year, and take some Black voters out of the 5th, which would go from 32 to 25 percent Black, though it would remain unlikely that they will be competitive there until Spratt retires.

Public Policy Polling is going to release their final VA-Gov survey very shortly. Tom Jensen teased us with this:

Looks like a tight race in Virginia… for second place. The undecideds seem to almost all be moving in the same direction.

I’m not going to call the race like I did the Saturday before the election for Kay Hagan based on early returns from our final poll because preferences in this race have been so fluid. But it doesn’t look like things are going to be as close on Tuesday as the polling in the last week suggested.

What do you think the numbers will look like? For reference, their prior numbers are here. We’ll post the results just as soon as PPP makes them available.

UPDATE (James): It’s out.

Public Policy Polling (6/6-7, likely voters, 5/28-31 in parens):

Creigh Deeds (D): 40 (27)

Terry McAuliffe (D): 26 (24)

Brian Moran (D): 24 (22)

Undecided: 10 (26)

(MoE: ±3.0%)

Wow. What a huge movement for Creigh Deeds in just a few short weeks. Remember, Deeds was lagging at 14% in PPP’s 5/1-3 poll, but a well-timed endorsement from the Washington Post was clearly the catalyst for Deeds’ remarkable surge — and probably also a sign that a sizable share of Moran and McAuliffe’s support was pretty soft in the first place. Indeed, in the vote-rich DC burbs in Northern Virginia, where Deeds has been almost a non-factor for much of the race, Deeds has now pulled ahead of Moran by a 38-35 margin, with 20% going to McAuliffe.

And speaking of McAuliffe, take a look at his horrid favorability rating; among Democratic primary voters, just as many voters have a favorable opinion of the ex-DNC chair as those who dislike him (40%-40%). That’s pretty brutal. If Deeds can hold onto his lead on Tuesday, we may be dodging a major bullet here.

Of course, the usual caveats apply: Pegging the primary voter universe is a notoriously tough business (especially in an ultra-low turnout state like Virginia), and the ground game will be key on Tuesday. For now, though, the momentum is clearly at the back of Deeds.

I drew my map with the goal of getting as many Democratic seats as possible. This was before I knew New Jersey has a commision draw its seats so it is probably unrealistic. I looked up the politcal data and caculated the presidential results for each district. I managed to get 11 districts at 54% or better and one Republican seat.  

Northeast New Jersey



North New jersey



South New Jersey

District 1 – Frank LoBiondo(R-Ventnor)

Stays Pretty much the same loses its area in Burlington and Camden Counties for more democratic areas in Gloucester County

Voted 55.3-43.5 Obama

District 2 – Robert Andrews(D-Haddon Heights)

Andrews current district went 65% for Obama so I gave some of its democratic areas to the 1st and 3rd and picked up republican areas in Burlington and Ocean Counties.

Voted 58-40.7 Obama

District 3 – John Adler(D-Cherry Hill)

Adlers old district went 52% for Obama so I swaped some areas with Andrews gave it the rest of Norther Burlington County and gave it less of Ocean County

Voted 56.1-42.8 Obama

District 4 – Christoper Smith(R-Hamiliton) vs Rush Holt(D-Hopewell)

Since I took Burlington out of the old 4th I needed more democratic areas so I gave it all of Mercer County where both Smith and Holt live and to balance it out I gave it the rest of Ocean Coutny

Voted 55.8-42.9 Obama

District 5 – Frank Pallone(D-Long Branch)

Loses New Brunswick and Plainfield picks up Linden and picks up some republican areas of Monmouth County

Voted 54.3-44.6 Obama

District 6 – No Incumbent

Since I was trying to avoid a republican district in the south. When I put all of Mercer County in the 4th it left me with no incumbent near my 6th. Takes in New Brunswick and other Democratic areas in Middlesex County and Republican areas of Monmouth County.

Voted 55.4-43.6 Obama

District 7 – Lenoard Lance(R-Lebanon)

The old 7th barely went for Obama so I gave it more of Union County

Voted 54.1-45.1 Obama

District 8 – Donald Payne(D-Newark)

Lost its areas of Elizabeth and gained area in Essex and Morris counties. Is only 45% Black and 37% White

District 9 – Albio Sires(D-West New York)

Loses its finger to the south and picks up areas in Hudson and Bergen counties. Only 44% Hispanic and 37% White

District 10 – Bill Pascrell Jr(D-Patterson) Takes in almost all of Passaic County and some of Essex and some republican areas in Bergen County.

Voted 57.3-41.9 Obama

District 11 – Steven Rothman(D-Fair Lawn)

Loses area in Passaic and Hudson Counties picks up more area in Bergen County and Passaic City.

Voted 58.7-40.5 Obama

District 12 – Scott Garrett(R-Wantage) vs Rodney Frelinghuysen(R-Harding)

The 12th is left with Republican areas in the north.

I didnt have political data of Morris County but this district went about 56-43 McCain

Iowa is among the small number of states that use a bipartisan (or nonpartisan) commission to perform redistricting every 10 years. The resulting maps are often very competitive and fair when compared with those of many other states.

However, I started thinking anout what would happen if, hypothetically, the party in charge of the legislature controlled redistricting rather than the commission. What would such a map look like? How would the current incumbents be affected?

The map the I created was designed to help Democrats because currently the legislature is under Democratic control and the governor is a Democrat. In this hypothetical scenario, Republicans cannot block the plan through filibusters or avoiding a quorum. Also, since Iowa is set to lose one of its districts after the 2010 census, my plan uses four districts rather than the five that currently exist.

My main goals were to:

-Maintain Democratic advantages in eastern Iowa

-Protect Leonard Boswell

-Dismantle Tom Latham’s district and force him to run against Steve King

Here is the current map:

And here is the map that I ended up creating:

Here is some information about this new districts:

1st District (Blue)

Obama-55.21%

McCain-44.79%

Major Cities: Davenport. Dubuque, Waterloo

The new 1st district has all but two of the counties of the current 1st (Jones and Fayette). It picks up all of the counties along the Minnesota border, as well as a number of adjacent counties (basically the northern bits of Latham and King’s districts). It is still considerably Democratic, although less so than before. However, the district is still largely centered in Democratic-leaning northeastern Iowa, so it should elect Bruce Braley or another Democrat easily enough.

2nd District (Red)

Obama-58.89%

McCain-41.11%

Major Cities: Cedar Rapids, Iowa City, Burlington

This district keeps all of the counties currently located in Dave Loebsack’s southeastern district, and it gains Jones County from the 1st, as well as a few Republican counties from Steve King’s 5th district (Decatur, Ringgold, and Taylor). It also picks up 6 of the 12 counties in Leonard Boswell’s 3rd district (5 of those 6 counties went for McCain, so this takes some of the pressure off of Boswell). The result is a very Democratic district in southeastern Iowa that is now able to dilute Republican influence from some of the neighboring districts. Loebsack or another Democrat would have no trouble getting reelected here.

3rd District (Purple)

Obama-60.03%

McCain-39.97%

Major Cities: Carroll, Des Moines, Fort Dodge

This district retains roughly half of the counties in Leonard Boswell’s 3rd district, but also picks up Democratic counties from the 4th and 5th districts. Over half of the population in the district lives in Polk County (Des Moines). My main goal was to protect Leonard Boswell since he seems to have frequent trouble in his current district. He would be more than safe here; this district went for Obama by over 20 points, making it the most Democratic district in Iowa. If Tom Latham wanted to run against Boswell, he would first have to move to the 3rd (his Ames home is located outside of the district), and even then he would have a difficult race given the new nature of the district. Steve King’s home in Crawford County has also been moved into this district, but it would be hopeless for him to run here, given his ultraconservative profile. This district would favor most any Democrat.

4th District (Green)

Obama-50.46%

McCain-49.54%

Major Cities: Ames, Council Bluffs, Sioux City, Storm Lake

At first, I thought it would be impossible to put western Iowa into a Democratic district, but it was indeed possible. Obama only won this district by about 1%, but making it much more Democratic would have put Braley or Boswell in danger. The 4th keeps most of its current western base, but loses several western counties to the other 3 districts (including Crawford County, where Steve King lives). It gains many of the counties in Tom Latham’s current 4th district, including Dallas and Story (where Latham lives) and Fayette County (located in the current 1st dstrict). This district has much of Latham’s former territory, so he would have the best chance of winning in this district. But first he would probably have to face Steve King in a Republican primary. If the primary was divisive enough, or if King was the GOP nominee, this marginally Democratic district could be won by a moderate-to-conservative Democrat.

So while none of this will probably ever happen, I thought that it would be interesting to examine a hypothetical scenario.  So what do you all think? Comments, suggestions, ideas?

(Truly tremendous work. From the diaries with minor edits – promoted by DavidNYC)

I love political geography and political history. So, something seemed out of line when I recently read diaries on several sites regarding the soon-to-be vacancy of New York’s 23rd Congressional District, made possible by the appointment of John McHugh to become Secretary of the Army. Several diaries mentioned that the district hasn’t been represented by a Democrat in a quarter-century or so. Perhaps parts of the district haven’t elected a Democrat in 25 or so years, but it seemed to me that most of the district hasn’t been Democratic-held since much earlier times. I decided to do a little research.

It turns out that NY-23 is a true political anomaly. It is one of only two remaining districts in the United States where at least part of the district has not been represented by a Democrat since 1852 (the other is Pennsylvania’s 16th District, which includes Lancaster County, most of which has not been represented by a Democrat since 1830. Tennessee’s 2nd District last elected a Democrat in 1852. There no longer are any comparable Democratic-held districts; all have gone Republican at least once since 1850, although a few in Texas held out until the DeLay redistricting of 2004.)

If Democrats win NY-23 in a special election to be held later this year, certain parts of this district will be represented by a Democrat for the first time in 159 years. The map below gives you an idea of how long it’s been since parts of the district have been Democratic-held. Almost two-thirds of the population of the current district (62%) live in territory that has not elected a Democrat since 1890 or earlier. It really is mind-boggling. (For those political geeks interested in more history about this district, I provide additional information below the map.)

Perhaps what got a few commentators confused regarding this district in diaries I read (other than often-confusing district numbering) was the fact that the district has only been around in its present “single-district” form since the 1940’s. Since that time, it has always included Jefferson, St. Lawrence, and Franklin Counties, as well as Lewis Co. (except for 1971-73), and Oswego Co. (except for 1945-53 and 1983-93). Clinton Co. and most of Essex Co. have also been part of the district since 1969 and 1971, respectively. The other, more peripheral counties have been part of this district only briefly over the last 60 or so years. Between 1883 and 1943, there were basically two districts here – a “western” one, encompassing Jefferson, Oswego, Lewis, and Madison, and an “eastern” one, encompassing St. Lawrence, Franklin, Clinton, and Essex – although during one period of time, redistricting created three districts centered in what is now NY-23. Prior to 1883, what is now NY-23 was part of four or more different districts.

Since the 1856 election (when the Republican party entered the political arena), the territory in what is now NY-23 has almost exclusively been represented by the GOP. In fact, the last Democrat elected to represent St. Lawrence Co. in Congress was a man named Francis Spinner, elected in 1854. He ran successfully for re-election as a Republican in 1856 and was later appointed as Treasurer of the United States by Abraham Lincoln. The last Democrat to represent Jefferson Co. was even earlier – Willard Ives, elected in 1850. The most amazing fact I found was regarding Franklin Co. The last Democrat elected to represent that county was Joseph Russell, also in 1850. In 1852, the district that then included Franklin elected George Simmons, a member of the Whig party. Therefore, Franklin Co. has been more recently represented in Congress by a WHIG (1854) than by a Democrat (1852)!

I wasn’t going to go into the current political situation in NY-23 at all in this diary, but one fact caught my eye while researching the info here. It is interesting that Darrrell Aubertine (who represents Oswego, Jefferson and part of St. Lawrence in the State Senate – equivalent to approximately 45% of the population of NY-23) is the first Democrat elected to his State Senate seat since 1880. (By the way, no other State Senator represents as high a percentage of NY-23 as Aubertine; GOP Senator Joe Griffo represents about 15% and doesn’t even live in NY-23; while GOP Senator Betty Little represents about 25% and also doesn’t live in the congressional district; two others represent the remainder.) Aubertine would certainly make a formidable candidate for us. However, I also understand the need to keep the State Senate in Democratic hands. NY-23 voted for Obama by 52-47, so this election will be competitive. Hopefully, we will find a good candidate and make him or her the first Democrat elected to Congress here in a long, long time.

Sources for information:

• The Historical Atlas of Political Parties in the United States Congress (1989)
• The Almanac of American Politics (various editions)
• Wikipedia

The goal of this was to draw 8 districts capable of electing Democrats.  Without detailed political data it’s difficult to know whether this is ridiculously overreaching or just “aggressive”, but I though I’d give it a shot.

The Whole State:



(Larger Resolution)

Blow up of Seattle-Tacoma:

District 1:

This district is now centered on the Olympia Peninsula, but still retails a portion of Seattle and it’s Northern suburbs.

District 2:

Loses Whatcom and Island counties in exchange for some suburban areas South of Everett and a small area East of the Cascades.

District 3:

This district (which in it’s old configuration went narrowly for Bush twice) has been shored up slightly by replacing most of conservative Lewis county with a larger portion of Olympia and Dem trending Klickitat County.

District 4:

Heart of Conservative Eastern Washington.  Yakima, which was the population center of the old district has been removed in exchange for the reddest areas of the old 5th.

District 5:

Politically competitive district in Northern and far Eastern Washington.  While it went for Obama in 2008, it probably supported Bush in 2004.  A strong Dem from Spokane could wrest the seat from McMorris Rodgers.

District 6:

This seat has been changed fairly substantially. While, still anchored in Tacoma, it no longer contains the Olympia Peninsula, but instead has portions of Thuston, most of Lewis and a small part of Yakima counties.  Current Congressman Norm Disks would be unhappy, as his Bremerton home is now outside of the district.

District 7:

To help out some of the neighboring districts the 7th now has less of Seattle and gained some suburban regions that were in the 1st and 8th.  It still should be very Democratic.

District 8:

The new 8th is now entirely in King County, gaining Renton, Kent and a healthy portion of Seattle.  Hopefully enough to send Sheriff Dave riding off into the sunset.

District 9:

This is the district I am the most apprehensive about.  While I did give it a portion of Seattle I also added some conservative parts of Pierce County and the City of Yakima.  I would want to look at more detailed political data to make sure I didn’t push it too far right.