Month: August 2009

Florida Gov. Charlie Crist has requested applications from three Republicans for the Senate vacancy created by the resignation of GOP Sen. Mel Martinez. One of the names under consideration, South Florida Rep. Lincoln Diaz-Balart, should pique the interest of open seat fans. From the Palm Beach Post:

Crist said he asked for applications this afternoon from U.S. Rep. Lincoln Diaz-Balart, R-Miami; former U.S. Attorney Bob Martinez; and former Florida Secretary of State Jim Smith.

“There will be others,” Crist said in an interview.

Picking Jim Smith might give Crist some headaches with the base — Smith began his political career as a Democrat, winning two terms as the state’s attorney general beginning in 1978, and lost the Democratic gubernatorial primary in 1986. He switched to the GOP a year later to accept the Secretary of State appointment, but as far as I can tell, he never built up the far-right cred needed to satisfy the Rubio crowd.

Appointing Lincoln Diaz-Balart would certainly shake things up, creating another special election in his R+5 House district sometime this fall. Diaz-Balart most recently dispatched highly-touted but troubled Democrat (and ex-Hialeah mayor) Raul Martinez by a blow-out 58-42 margin last year, but his district has shifted dramatically from the Republican stronghold that it once was. According to SSP’s analysis of the results, McCain barely edged Barack Obama by a 51-49 margin in the 21st CD last year, a big drop from the 57-43 win that Bush posted here in 2004 (and 58-42 four years earlier). I’m not sure who we have on the bench who might consider running in a special election, but it would certainly create a race with some potential.

UPDATE: One thing we should make clear here — the “Bob Martinez” under consideration by Crist is not the former Governor, but rather the former U.S. Attorney of the same name.

Previous diaries

Summary:

 OH has 18 representatives: 10 D, 8 R

 OK has  5 representatives:  1 D, 4 R

 OR has  5 representatives:  4 D, 1 R

Possibly vulnerable:

 OH-01 (D)

 OH-02 (R)

 OH-15 (D)

 OH-16 (D)

Sources:

House vote in 2008 from WaPo

VoteView (ranked from 1 for most liberal to 447 for most conservative; more than 435 because some districts had more than one rep in the 110th congress)

Race Tracker

Obama vote by CD from Swing State

National Atlas for maps

and my previous diaries.

District: OH-01

Location Southwestern OH, bordering IN and KY, including Cincinnati map

Cook PVI D + 1

Representative Steve Dreihaus (D) Not confirmed

VoteView NA

First elected 2008

2008 margin 51-49 over Steve Chabot

2006 margin NA

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 55-44

Bush margin 2004 51-50

Current opponents Steven Chabot

Demographics   27th fewest Latinos (1.1%)

Assessment Dreihaus ousted Chabot, the incumbent; now, there’s  a rematch.  Vulnerable.  Both Dreihaus and Chabot have raised about $400K.

District: OH-02

Location  Central part of southern OH, bordering KY  map

Cook PVI R + 13

Representative Jean Schmidt (R) Not confirmed

VoteView 374.5

First elected 2005

2008 margin 45-37 over Vic Wulsin.  Remainder to David Krikorian, an independent.

2006 margin 50-49

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 40-59

Bush margin 2004 64-36

Current opponents There are 4 confirmed Democrats:

Vic Wulsin

Jack Krikorian (no web site)

Jim Parker

and

Todd Book

Demographics  22nd fewest Latinos (1.0%)

Assessment Schmidt is truly odious, and this district is becoming more Democratic by the day – although it is still a Republican stronghold.  I met Wulsin in 2008, and I like her.

District: OH-03

Location Southwestern OH, including Dayton  map

Cook PVI R + 5

Representative Mike Turner (R)

VoteView 278

First elected 2002

2008 margin 64-36 over Jane Mitikides

2006 margin 59-41

2004 margin 62-38

Obama margin 47-51

Bush margin 2004 46-55

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics 26th fewest Latinos (1.1%)

Assessment Long shot

District: OH-04

Location Slightly north and west of central OH map

Cook PVI R + 15

Representative Jim Jordan (R) Not confirmed

VoteView 426

First elected 2006

2008 margin 65-35 over Mike Carroll

2006 margin 60-40

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 38-60

Bush margin 2004 34-65

Current opponents

Demographics 33rd fewest Latinos (1.2%)

Assessment Long shot

District: OH-05

Location Northwestern OH, bordering MI and IN  map

Cook PVI R + 9

Representative Bob Latta (R) Not confirmed

VoteView 345

First elected 2007

2008 margin 64-36 over George Mays

2006 margin NA

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 45-53

Bush margin 2004 61-39

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics 41st most rural (51.1%), 36th fewest Blacks (1.1%)  

Assessment Long shot

District: OH-06

Location Southeastern OH, a long narrow strip along the whole of the border with WV map

Cook PVI R + 2

Representative Charlie Wilson (D)

VoteView 205.5

First elected 2006

2008 margin 62-33 over Richard Stobbs

2006 margin 62-38

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 48-50

Bush margin 2004 51-49

Current opponents Donald Allen

Demographics 47th most rural (50.0%),  62nd poorest (median income = $33K), 11th most White (95.2%), 11th fewest Latinos (0.8%)

Assessment Although this is a swing district in POTUS, Wilson looks safe.

District: OH-07

Location Just south of central OH map

Cook PVI R + 7

Representative Steve Austria (R) Not confirmed

VoteView NA

First elected 2008

2008 margin 58-42 over Sharen Neuhardt

2006 margin NA

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 45-54

Bush margin 2004 57-43

Current opponents

Demographics 26th fewest Latinos (1.1%)

Assessment Long shot

District: OH-08

Location Central part of western OH, bordering IN map

Cook PVI R + 14

Representative John Boehner (R)

VoteView 407.5

First elected 1990

2008 margin 68-32 over Nicholas von Stein

2006 margin 64-36

2004 margin 69-31

Obama margin 38-60

Bush margin 2004 64-35

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics 73rd most Whites (91.8%), 42nd fewest Latinos (1.3%)

Assessment

District: OH-09

Location Northern OH, bordering Lake Erie, including Toledo map

Cook PVI D + 10

Representative Marcy Kaptur (D)

VoteView 72

First elected 1982

2008 margin 74-26 over Bradley Leavitt

2006 margin 74-26

2004 margin 68-32

Obama margin 62-36

Bush margin 2004 42-55

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment Safe

District: OH-10

Location Northern OH, bordering Lake Erie, including part of Cleveland map

Cook PVI D + 8

Representative Dennis Kucinich (D)

VoteView 2

First elected 1996

2008 margin 57-39 over Jim Trakas

2006 margin 66-34

2004 margin 60-34

Obama margin 59-39

Bush margin 2004 41-58

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment Safe

District: OH-11

Location Cleveland and eastern suburbs map

Cook PVI D + 32

Representative Marcia Fudge (D) Not confirmed

VoteView NA

First elected  2008

2008 margin 85-15 over Tom Pekarik

2006 margin NA

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 85-14

Bush margin 2004 18-81

Current opponents Safe

Demographics 52nd lowest income (median = $32K), 63rd fewest Whites (38.8%), 18th most Blacks (55.5%)

Assessment

District: OH-12

Location Central OH, including part of Columbus map

Cook PVI D + 1

Representative Pat Tiberi (R)

VoteView 316

First elected 2000

2008 margin 55-42 over David Robinson

2006 margin 57-43

2004 margin 62-38

Obama margin 53-46

Bush margin 2004 51-49

Current opponents Paula Brooks (obviously not a full web  site)

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment From the Cook PVI numbers, it should be a bit vulnerable; I don’t know anything about Paula Brooks.

District: OH-13

Location Northern OH, including Akron map

Cook PVI D + 5

Representative Betty Sutton (D)

VoteView 98.5

First elected 2006

2008 margin 65-35 over David Potter

2006 margin 61-39

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 57-42

Bush margin 2004 44-56

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment Safe

District: OH-14

Location Northeastern corner of OH, bordering PA and Lake Erie map

Cook PVI R + 3

Representative Steven LaTourette (R)

VoteView 264

First elected 1994

2008 margin 58-39 over Bill O’Neill

2006 margin 58-39

2004 margin 63-37

Obama margin 49-49

Bush margin 2004 53-44

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics 30th fewest in poverty (5.7%), 30th most Whites (93.8%), 42nd fewest Latinos (1.3%)

Assessment Long shot

District: OH-15

Location Central OH, including Columbus map

Cook PVI D + 1

Representative Mary Jo Kilroy (D)

VoteView NA

First elected  2008

2008 margin 311 votes out of 260,000 over Steve Stivers

2006 margin NA

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 54-45

Bush margin 2004 50-50

Current opponents David Ryon and Steve Stivers

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment Vulnerable

District: OH-16

Location North and east of central OH map

Cook PVI R + 4

Representative John Boccieri (D) Not confirmed

VoteView NA

First elected 2008

2008 margin 54-46 over Kirk Schuring

2006 margin NA

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 48-50

Bush margin 2004 54-46

Current opponents None confirmed, but a lot of rumors and people considering running, see the WIKI

Demographics 17th fewest Latinos (0.9%)

Assessment A freshman in a Republican district has to be considered vulnerable

District: OH-17

Location  Northeastern OH, bordering PA, including Youngstown map

Cook PVI D + 12

Representative Tim Ryan (D)

VoteView 109

First elected 2002

2008 margin 78-22 over Duane Grassell

2006 margin 80-20

2004 margin 77-23

Obama margin 62-36

Bush margin 2004 63-37

Current opponents No Republicans, but a bunch of Democrats are considering primaries, see the WIKI

Demographics 67th fewest Latinos (1.6%)

Assessment Safe for the Democrat, Ryan or other

District: OH-18

Location South and east of central OH map

Cook PVI R + 7

Representative Zack Space (D)

VoteView 217

First elected 2006

2008 margin 60-40 over Fred Dailey

2006 margin 62-38

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 45-52

Bush margin 2004 57-41

Current opponents Jeannette Moll, possibly others

Demographics 24th most rural (56.7%), 7th most White (95.9%), tied for least Latinos (0.6%)

Assessment Looks fairly safe; Space fits the district.

District: OK-01

Location  Shaped like a key standing on end, centered on Tulsa in northeast OK, a tiny bit of border with KS map

Cook PVI R + 16

Representative John Sullivan (R)

VoteView 401

First elected 2002

2008 margin 66-34 over Georgianna Oliver

2006 margin 64-31

2004 margin 60-38

Obama margin 34-66

Bush margin 2004 35-65

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment Long shot

District: OK-02

Location Eastern OK, bordering MO and AR map

Cook PVI R + 14

Representative Dan Boren (D)

VoteView 225

First elected 2004

2008 margin 70-30 over Raymond Wickson

2006 margin 73-27

2004 margin 66-34

Obama margin 34-66

Bush margin 2004 41-59

Current opponents Dan Arnett and David Edmonds

Demographics 9th most rural (64.4%), 12th lowest income (median = $28K), 11th most nonWhite, nonBlack, NonLatino (mostly 16.8% American Indian)

Assessment Boren isn’t exactly a progressive (UNDERSTATEMENT) but he did 36 points better than Obama.  He seems safe.

District: OK-03

Location The panhandle of OK, and east to Oklahoma City suburbs, borders TX, NM, CO, and KS map

Cook PVI R + 24

Representative Frank Lucas (R)

VoteView 315

First elected 1994

2008 margin 70-24 over Frankie Robbins

2006 margin 67-33

2004 margin 82-18 (vs. minor party)

Obama margin 27-73

Bush margin 2004 72-28

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics 54th most rural (49.3%), 53rd lowest income (median = $32K)

Assessment Long shot

District: OK-04

Location Southwestern OK, bordering TX, including suburbs of Oklahoma City map

Cook PVI R + 18

Representative Tom Cole (R)

VoteView 330

First elected 2002

2008 margin 66-29 over Blake Cummings

2006 margin 65-35

2004 margin 78-22 (against minor party)

Obama margin 34-66

Bush margin 2004 59-41

Current opponents No Democrats, but there is a primary

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment Long shot

District: OK-05

Location Oklahoma City and some points southeast of there map

Cook PVI R + 13

Representative Mary Fallin (R) Retiring to run for Governor

VoteView NA

First elected NA

2008 margin NA

2006 margin NA

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 41-59

Bush margin 2004 64-36

Current opponents A lot of Republicans will probably run in a primary for this safe R seat

Demographics 78th lowest income (median = $34K)

Assessment Safe for whichever Repub wins

District: OR-01

Location  Northwestern OR, bordering WA and the Pacific, including parts of Portland and its suburbs  map

Cook PVI D + 8

Representative David Wu (D) Not confirmed

VoteView 132.5

First elected 1998

2008 margin 73% against several minor party candidates

2006 margin 63-34

2004 margin 58-38

Obama margin 61-36

Bush margin 2004 55-44

Current opponents Stephen Broadhead and Rob Corneilles

Demographics  36th fewest Blacks (1.1%)

Assessment Safe

District: OR-02

Location The eastern 2/3rds of OR, bordering WA, ID, NV, and CA  map

Cook PVI R + 10

Representative Greg Walden (R) May run for governor

VoteView 280

First elected 1998

2008 margin 70-26 over Noah Lemas

2006 margin 67-30

2004 margin 72-26

Obama margin 43-54

Bush margin 2004 61-38

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics 15th most veterans (17.3%), 6th fewest Blacks (0.4%)

Assessment Safe for whichever Republican gets it, even if Walden runs.

District: OR-03

Location Northern OR, bordering WA, includes Portland and suburbs, and Mt Hood.  map

Cook PVI D + 19

Representative Earl Blumenauer (D) Not confirmed

VoteView 54

First elected 1996

2008 margin 75-25 over Delia Lopez

2006 margin 73-23

2004 margin 71-24

Obama margin 71-26

Bush margin 2004 33-67

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment Safe

District: OR-04

Location Southwestern OR, bordering CA and the Pacific, including Eugene  map

Cook PVI D + 2

Representative Peter DeFazio (D) Not confirmed

VoteView 142

First elected 1986

2008 margin 83% against several minor party candidates

2006 margin 62-38

2004 margin 61-38

Obama margin 54-43

Bush margin 2004 49-49

Current opponents Sid Leken an Jaynee Germond

Demographics   11th fewest Blacks (0.5%), 24th most veterans (16.9%)

Assessment Safe

District: OR-05

Location  A T-shaped district in northwestern OR.  map

Cook PVI D + 1

Representative Kurt Schrader (D)

VoteView NA

First elected 2008

2008 margin 55-38 over Mike Erickson

2006 margin NA

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 54-43

Bush margin 2004 50-49

Current opponents None confirmed, but a lot of Repubs considering a run, see the WIKI

Demographics 18th fewest Blacks (0.6%)

Assessment Winning by 17 in your first race looks good; probably safe.  Schrader has raised $400K

Research 2000 (8/10-12, likely voters, 5/4-6 in parens):

Arlen Specter (D-inc): 48 (56)

Joe Sestak (D): 33 (11)

Undecided: 19 (33)

(MoE: ±5%)

Sestak still has a lot of work ahead of him in convincing Democratic primary voters to reject an incumbent they generally like (R2K finds Specter’s approval among Dem voters to be a pretty sturdy 74-21 compared to Sestak’s 51-8), but he’s made some pretty significant progress already. (Rasmussen’s primary poll, released on Wednesday, pegged the race at an even-narrower 47-34 for Specter.)

General election nums:

Arlen Specter (D-inc): 45 (55)

Pat Toomey (R): 40 (31)

Joe Sestak (D): 42 (37)

Pat Toomey (R): 41 (32)

(MoE: ±4%)

It’s clearly getting a bit hairier for Democrats everywhere lately, but these numbers are a far cry from Rasmussen (8/11, likely voters):

Arlen Specter (D-inc): 36

Pat Toomey (R): 48

Other: 4

Joe Sestak (D): 35

Pat Toomey (R): 43

Other: 5

(MoE: ±3%)

For what it’s worth, I find the R2K numbers a bit easier to believe, but in any case, this election isn’t shaping up to be the cakewalk that it appeared to be in April. With a protracted Democratic nomination battle in place until the spring and the national environment getting sunnier for the GOP, SSP is changing its rating of this race from Likely D to Lean D. Pat Toomey is still a seriously flawed nominee with a lot of weaknesses to exploit, but the Democratic nominee (and the DSCC) will have to work harder than expected to keep him down.

Public Policy Polling (8/4-10, registered voters, 7/10-12 in parens, March in parens for Marshall trend lines):

Cal Cunninghan (D): 28 (31)

Richard Burr (R-inc): 43 (40)

Kenneth Lewis (D): 27 (31)

Richard Burr (R-inc): 43 (42)

Elaine Marshall (D): 31 (35)

Richard Burr (R-inc): 43 (43)

Kevin Foy (D): 27

Richard Burr (R-inc): 43

(MoE: ±3.6%)

Burr has got to be pleased that he’s expanding his lead against all comers, and even against the highly-vaunted candidacy of Generic Democrat, whom Burr now leads by 42-35, a distinct improvement from 40-38 last month. However, Burr still doesn’t have much to brag about, as his approval rating is a marginal 38-32, with a big 30% slice of electorate being “not sure”. Possible newcomer Kevin Foy, the mayor of Chapel Hill, isn’t bringing any noticeable strength to the table in his first appearance in PPP’s polling.

Tom Jensen gives his two cents:

Burr’s situation is pretty simple. If things continue to move in a Republican direction all the way to November 2010 none of the Democratic candidates are going to be strong enough to defeat him. But if the economy turns around and Barack Obama gets the credit for it, resulting in another Democratic year, Burr is probably not strong enough to get reelected. As a relatively anonymous Senator his fate is more than likely going to be determined by which way the wind is blowing. Unless it turns out to be a year where disgusted voters just turn out incumbents of both parties at a much higher rate than usual.

I find it hard to disagree.

RaceTracker Wiki: NC-Sen

• CT-Sen: Could the GOP field for the Connecticut Senate primary actually grow to six? We all know about ex-Rep. Rob Simmons, state Sen. Sam Caligiuri, ex-Ambassador Tom Foley, and Paulist economist Peter Schiff. But now two others are interested: businessman Jack Orchuli, who lost big-time to Chris Dodd in 2004, and businesswoman Linda McMahon. If the name sounds vaguely familiar, that’s because she’s the CEO of World Wrestling Entertainment and wife of Vince McMahon. (Well, if Jesse Ventura can become Governor, I suppose anything’s possible.) Opposition researchers will have a field day with her track record, no doubt starting with her patently unfair treatment of Triple H at WrestleMania 2000.

• IL-Gov: Comptroller Dan Hynes, who recently decided to run against Governor Pat Quinn in the Dem primary after AG Lisa Madigan declined, picked up an endorsement that may help with the 80-and-older set: former Sen. Adlai Stevenson III (who served in the Senate from 1970-1981, and is son of the unsuccessful presidential candidate and archetypal egghead). The endorsement was published at the Huffington Post — where I can’t imagine there are too many readers who remember Stevenson.

• NJ-Gov: Democratic pollster Greenberg Quinlan Rosner finds that Jon Corzine is starting to move back within the margin of error in New Jersey against Chris Christie. In a 3-way matchup including centrist independent Chris Daggett, Christie leads Corzine 40-35-10, while in a 2-way, Christie leads Corzine 43-37. It seems like some headway is finally being made on driving up Christie’s negatives, with his favorability at 32/31. With the recent Rove linkage reminding people that Christie is, in fact, a Republican, this trend may be poised to continue.

• NY-23: With everyone wondering “who the heck is Bill Owens?” here’s a link to the first mailer he’s sending out to voters in the 23rd, which focuses on job creation and his non-politician credentials.

• OH-18: Rep. Zack Space may avoid a challenge with his potentially most challenging GOP foe: state Sen. Jimmy Stewart, who says he “does not expect to run.” (That’s too bad that Stewart won’t be going to Washington; I was really looking forward to hearing all those letters from Boy Scouts read on the House floor.) Former magistrate judge Jeanette Moll, who lost the 2008 GOP primary, is already seeking the GOP nod for 2010.

• PA-06, PA-07: 2008 candidate Bob Roggio, after sounding vaguely interested, today tells Pa2010 that he won’t run in the open seat race for the 6th after all. Next door in the 7th, businessman Peter Welch sounds like he’s staying in the GOP primary, even if ex-US Attorney and recent gubernatorial race dropout Pat Meehan gets in.

• SC-03: Republican state Rep. Rex Rice continues to build up momentum to take over for retiring Rep. Gresham Barrett. One of his primary rivals, state Rep. Michael Thompson withdrew from the race and endorsed Rice.

• TN-09: Is Willie Herenton crazy like a fox, or just plain crazy? He’s resigning from his position as Memphis mayor to run for the House in the Democratic primary against Rep. Steve Cohen, but now he’s picked up the paperwork to run in the special mayoral election, necessitated by his resignation, in order to succeed himself. He says he’s still running for the House, but apparently needs to continue being Mayor to prevent Mayor Pro Tem Myron Lowery from screwing things up. (He already has several previous instances of trying to resign from office and then changing his mind.)

Research 2000 for Daily Kos (8/9-12, likely voters, no trendlines):

Jerry Brown (D): 29

Gavin Newson (D): 20

Meg Whitman (R): 24

Tom Campbell (R): 19

Steve Poizner (R): 9

Meg Whitman (R): 27

Tom Campbell (R): 21

(MoE: ±5%)

Jerry Brown (D): 42

Meg Whitman (R): 36

Jerry Brown (D): 43

Tom Campbell (R): 35

Jerry Brown (D): 43

Steve Poizner (R): 34

Gavin Newsom (D): 36

Meg Whitman (R): 37

Gavin Newsom (D): 36

Tom Campbell (R): 35

Gavin Newsom (D): 36

Steve Poizner (R): 35

(MoE: ±4%)

Carly Fiorina (R): 29

Chuck DeVore (R): 17

(MoE: ±5%)

Barbara Boxer (D-inc): 52

Carly Fiorina (R): 31

Barbara Boxer (D-inc): 53

Chuck DeVore (R): 29

(MoE: ±4%)

Research 2000 takes a very thorough look at the big two races in California next year, checking out pretty much every possible permutation left. Although we’ve seen some rather alarming polls for Democrats in the last few weeks, Democrats seem to be holding their own in California, with ex-Gov. and current AG Jerry Brown holding an appreciable edge in the Governor’s race (up 6 on the likeliest GOP opponent, ex-eBay CEO Meg Whitman) and Sen. Barbara Boxer with 20-point leads on her competition.

San Francisco mayor Gavin Newsom doesn’t fare as well in head-to-heads — Whitman edges him out by 1, while he beats the other GOPers by 1 — and that’s reflected in his favorables. He’s the only one of the five gubernatorial candidates who’s in negative favorability territory, at 40/42 (Brown, by comparison, is at 48/37). While the primaries have been polled extensively, the only previous poll that has looked at the general election in CA-Gov is a Lake Research poll from March that had both Brown and Newsom beating their GOP rivals by margins well outside the MoE, so it seems like some erosion has happened on the governor’s side (especially with Newson). With Whitman’s endless millions that she’s signaled her willingness to spend, this has the potential to get closer as the race goes on.

On the flipside, R2K’s numbers give a much wider spread on the Boxer/Fiorina matchup than the recent Rasmussen poll; R2K’s numbers on this race are pretty close to what the Field Poll found in March.

Finally, the poll also asks about the fate of a same-sex marriage initiative that may be on the ballot in 2010. The initiative would narrowly lose, 48-47, but that’s indicative of some progress, as the same sample voted 51-45 in favor of Proposition 8 (and thus against same-sex marriage) last year, so there’s been some improvement just in the last half a year.

RaceTracker Wiki: CA-Sen | CA-Gov

• FL-Sen: Charlie Crist barely survived another county-level GOP censure vote, this time in heavily-Democratic Palm Beach County, where one would expect the GOP faithful to be Chamber of Commerce types and not run-of-the-mill teabagging rageaholics. The censure bid failed on a 65-65 tie. The party member who led the bid referred to Crist as “nothing more than Arlen Specter with a tan.”

• NV-Sen: Rep. Dean Heller, who recently declined to run for Senate, laid his cards on the table, confirming what many suspected, that the John Ensign scandal contributed to Heller’s decision not to run against Harry Reid. Any Ensign support for Heller would have been a distraction rather than an asset. In the same interview, Heller also encouraged Ensign to answer remaining questions about payoffs to the former staffer he had the affair with. (One other interesting question raised here… does Heller calling out Ensign mean Heller is trying to help push Ensign out the door and then run for the open Senate seat in 2012? Because that would mean Heller wouldn’t run in the primary against Jim Gibbons in 2010, making it likelier that Gibbons survives the primary — and I know Democrats would rather face Gibbons than Heller in the governor’s race.)

Also, CQ is reporting that, bolstered by an internal poll giving her a small edge over Harry Reid (and also by Heller’s decision to stand down), state GOP party chair Sue Lowden is getting more interested in making the race, and she’s testing the fundraising waters.

• PA-Gov: Rep. Jim Gerlach got another endorsement from Pennsylvania’s GOP House delegation, Bill Shuster from PA-05 (coming on the heels of endorsements from Todd Platts and ex-Rep. Phil English). Of course, House colleagues tend to stick together, and their endorsements are of questionable value since they generally don’t bring local machines along with them, but these endorsements are at least interesting to the extent that they’re coming from the rural, most conservative parts of the “T,” not from Gerlach’s moderate southeastern suburban base.

• VA-Gov: There’s been some shuffling of personnel on the Creigh Deeds campaign, which has seemed kind of listless for the last month. Larry Sabato reported that campaign manager Joe Abbey, who engineered the primary victory, had been shoved over in favor of Mark Warner ally Monica Dixon. Dixon, however, says that Abbey’s still in charge but that she and some other new additions are there to bolster the ranks.

• KS-04: One more random wealthy Republican to add to the ever-expanding field in the open seat race in the Wichita-based 4th: oilman Willis “Wink” Hartman. State Sen. Dick Kelsey and RNC member Mike Pompeo are considered the GOP frontrunners.

• NY-23: GOP nominee for the special election, Assemblywoman Dede Scozzafava, had temporarily put her campaign on hold to tend to her father, who is recovering from heart surgery. Without a John McHugh Senate confirmation or a set election date, though, this isn’t likely to be much of a setback. (Stuart Rothenberg, as part of a good overview of the race, says it’s likely it’ll be held on Election Day in November, meaning that the significance of whatever happens may be subsumed by NJ-Gov and VA-Gov.)

• OH-SoS: The Secretary of State field for the Democrats may keep growing, with a potential new entrant with an impressive resume. Paul Gains is the Prosecutor in Mahoning County (where Youngstown is); he says he’s leaning toward the race. (His biggest claim to fame is surviving a mob hit upon first taking office in 1996.) Ohio SoS is one of the most important lower-tier statewide offices in the country, given the state’s narrow divide and the SoS’s role on the legislative apportionment board. Franklin Co. Commissioner Marilyn Brown and State Rep. Jennifer Garrison are also likely to run for the Dems.

{Originally posted at my blog Senate Guru.}

Following its PA-Sen Democratic primary numbers released yesterday showing Congressman Joe Sestak closing the gap on recent Republican Arlen Specter, Rasmussen Reports released general election match-up numbers:

Pat Toomey (R) 48 Arlen Specter (D) 36 Other 4 Not Sure 12

Pat Toomey (R) 43 Joe Sestak (D) 35 Other 5 Not Sure 18

Two obvious takeaways here.  One, Toomey has taken the lead.  Is it discontent over the protracted health care reform debate?  Is it burgeoning discontent with Specter himself harming the Democratic brand in Pennsylvania?  And how temporary will this lead be?  Unclear.

Two, the “electability” argument in the Democratic primary has flipped.  In previous polls, Specter matched up against Toomey better than Congressman Sestak did (no doubt relying largely on Specter’s strong name ID).  In this poll, however, Congressman Sestak matches up better.  His deficit against Toomey is only 8 points (and, remember, Congressman Sestak has never run statewide, unlike Toomey, and is still working to build name recognition across the state, which should improve his numbers significantly), while Specter’s deficit against Toomey is 12 points.  This is probably due to a plummetting favorable-unfavorable rating for Specter, as Rasmussen points out; Specter’s is down to 43-54.

While the numbers against Toomey are nothing to celebrate, this poll further cements the notion that Arlen Specter would not serve Democrats well as the Party’s Senate nominee.

By the way, want integrity?  Congressman Sestak went on Fox News to promote that he is “a strong proponent of the public health care plan option.”  He’s not going to pander or sugar coat.  He’s going to fight for Democratic values everywhere.  (And you can help Congressman Sestak’s fight with a contribution via the Expand the Map! ActBlue page.)

Yesterday I took a look at our efforts to recruit House candidates for 2010. This time it is the Republicans.

37! more Districts now have Republican candidates and they are getting wingnuttier all the time.

NV-03 (Titus) – D+2,

OH-16 (Boccieri) – R+4,

Below the fold for all the details (and bring some eyewash) and hey go check out the shiny new 2010 Race Tracker Wiki over at Open Congress for all your House, Senate and Gubernatorial needs.

Also keep an eye out for the great series on Democratic House Candidates by Adam T

(Cross posted at Daily Kos, MyDD and Open Left)

As we assumed for us so should we assume for them; so all 178 Republican held districts can be considered filled (although I think we may sneak a win in the NY-23rd Special).

122 Democratic held Districts have confirmed GOP candidates:

AL-02 (Bright) – R+16,

AL-05 (Griffith) – R+12,

AZ-01 (Kirkpatrick) – R+6,

AZ-05 (Mitchell) – R+5,

AZ-07 (Grijalva) – D+6,

AZ-08 (Giffords) – R+4,

AR-01 (Berry) – R+8,

AR-02 (Snyder) – R+5,

CA-01 (Thompson) – D+13,

CA-08 (Pelosi) – D+35,

CA-10 (VACANT) – D+11,

CA-11 (McNerney) – R+1,

CA-20 (Costa) – D+5,

CA-30 (Waxman) – D+18,

CA-47 (Sanchez) – D+4,

CA-53 (Davis) – D+14,

CO-03 (Salazar) – R+5,

CO-04 (Markey) – R+6,

CO-07 (Perlmutter) – D+4,

CT-02 (Courtney) – D+6,

CT-03 (DeLauro) – D+9,

CT-04 (Himes) – D+5,

CT-05 (Murphy) – D+2,

FL-02 (Boyd) – R+6,

FL-03 (Brown) – D+18,

FL-08 (Grayson) – R+2,

FL-11 (Castor) – D+11,

FL-17 (Meek OPEN) – D+34,

FL-19 (Wexler) – D+15,

FL-20 (Wasserman Schulz) – D+13,

FL-22 (Klein) – D+1,

FL-23 (Hastings) – D+28,

FL-24 (Kosmas) – R+4,

GA-02 (Bishop) – D+1,

GA-12 (Barrow) – D+1,

GA-13 (Scott) – D+15,

HI-01 (Abercrombie OPEN) – D+11,

ID-01 (Minnick) – R+18,

IL-02 (Jackson Jr) – D+36,

IL-08 (Bean) – R+1,

IL-11 (Halvorson) – R+1,

IL-14 (Foster) – R+1,

IL-17 (Hare) – D+3,

IN-08 (Ellsworth) – R+8,

IN-09 (Hill) – R+6,

IA-02 (Loebsack) – D+1,

IA-03 (Boswell) – D+1,

KY-06 (Chandler) – R+9,

LA-03 (Melancon) – R+12,

ME-02 (Michaud) – D+3,

MD-01 (Kratovil) – R+13,

MD-03 (Sarbanes) – D+6,

MD-08 (Van Hollen Jr) – D+21,

MA-02 (Neal) – D+9,

MA-04 (Frank) – D+14,

MA-05 (Tsongas) – D+8,

MA-06 (Tierney) – D+7,

MI-07 (Schauer) – R+2,

MI-09 (Peters) – D+2,

MI-12 (Levin) – D+12,

MN-04 (McCollum) – D+13,

MS-01 (Childers) – R+14,

MS-04 (Taylor) – R+20,

MO-04 (Skelton) – R+14,

NV-03 (Titus) – D+2,

NH-01 (Shea Porter) – D+0,

NH-02 (Hodes OPEN) – D+3,

NJ-12 (Holt) – D+5,

NM-01 (Heinrich) – D+5,

NM-02 (Teague) – R+6,

NM-03 (Lujan) – D+7,

NY-01 (Bishop) – D+0,

NY-04 (McCarthy) – D+6,

NY-13 (McMahon) – R+4,

NY-19 (Hall) – R+3,

NY-22 (Hinchey) – D+6,

NY-25 (Maffei) – D+3,

NY-29 (Massa) – R+5,

NC-04 (Price) – D+8,

NC-07 (McIntyre) – R+5,

NC-08 (Kissell) – R+2,

NC-13 (Miller) – D+5,

OH-01 (Driehaus) – D+1,

OH-06 (Wilson) – R+2,

OH-15 (Kilroy) – D+1,

OH-16 (Boccieri) – R+4,

OH-18 (Space) – R+7,

OK-02 (Boren) – R+14,

OR-01 (Wu) – D+8,

OR-04 (DeFazio) – D+2,

PA-03 (Dahlkemper) – R+3,

PA-07 (Sestak) – D+3,

PA-10 (Carney) – R+8,

PA-12 (Murtha) – R+1,

PA-13 (Schwartz) – D+7,

RI-01 (Kennedy) – D+13,

RI-02 (Langevin) – D+9,

SD-AL (Herseth Sandlin) – R+9,

TN-04 (Davis) – R+13,

TN-06 (Gordon) – R+13,

TN-08 (Tanner) – R+6,

TX-16 (Reyes) – D+10,

TX-17 (Edwards) – R+20,

TX-18 (Jackson Lee) – D+24,

TX-23 (Rodriguez) – R+4,

TX-27 (Ortiz) – R+2,

TX-29 (Green) – D+8,

UT-02 (Matheson) – R+15,

VA-02 (Nye) – R+5,

VA-05 (Perriello) – R+5,

VA-09 (Boucher) – R+11,

VA-11 (Connolly) – D+2,

WA-03 (Baird) – D+0,

WA-06 (Dicks) – D+5,

WA-09 (Smith) – D+5,

WV-01 (Mollohan) – R+9,

WV-03 (Rahall) – R+6,

WI-02 (Baldwin) – D+15,

WI-03 (Kind) – D+4,

WI-04 (Moore) – D+22,

WI-07 (Obey) – D+3,

WI-08 (Kagen) – R+2,

12 Democratic held Districts have GOP candidates that are considering a run:

CA-33 (Watson) – D+35,

KY-03 (Yarmuth) – D+2,

MO-03 (Carnahan) – D+7,

NJ-03 (Adler) – R+1,

NY-14 (Maloney) – D+26,

NY-20 (Murphy) – R+2,

NY-24 (Arcuri) – R+2,

NC-11 (Shuler) – R+6,

PA-11 (Kanjorski) – D+4,

PA-17 (Holden) – R+6,

WA-07 (McDermott) – D+31,

4 Democratic held Districts have rumoured GOP Party candidates:

KS-03 (Moore) – R+3,

MN-01 (Walz) – R+1,

NJ-08 (Pascrell) – D+10,

PA-04 (Altmire) – R+6,

118 Democratic held Districts don’t have any GOP candidates:

AL-07 (Davis OPEN) – D+18,

AZ-04 (Pastor) – D+13,

AR-04 (Ross) – R+7,

CA-05 (Matsui) – D+15,

CA-06 (Woolsey) – D+23,

CA-07 (Miller) – D+19,

CA-09 (Lee) – D+37,

CA-12 (Speier) – D+23,

CA-13 (Stark) – D+22,

CA-14 (Eshoo) – D+21,

CA-15 (Honda) – D+15,

CA-16 (Lofgren) – D+16,

CA-17 (Farr) – D+19,

CA-18 (Cardoza) – D+4,

CA-23 (Capps) – D+12,

CA-27 (Sherman) – D+13,

CA-28 (Berman) – D+23,

CA-29 (Schiff) – D+14,

CA-31 (Becerra) – D+29,

CA-32 (Chu) – D+15,

CA-34 (Roybal-Allard) – D+22,

CA-35 (Waters) – D+31,

CA-36 (Harman) – D+12,

CA-37 (Richardson) – D+26,

CA-38 (Napolitano) – D+18,

CA-39 (Sanchez) – D+12,

CA-43 (Baca) – D+13,

CA-51 (Filner) – D+8,

CO-01 (DeGette) – D+21,

CO-02 (Polis) – D+11,

CT-01 (Larson) – D+13,

GA-04 (Johnson) – D+24,

GA-05 (Lewis) – D+26,

GA-08 (Marshall) – R+10,

HI-02 (Hirono) – D+14,

IL-01 (Rush) – D+34,

IL-03 (Lipinski) – D+11,

IL-04 (Gutierrez) – D+32,

IL-05 (Quigley) – D+19,

IL-07 (Davis) – D+35,

IL-09 (Schakowsky) – D+20,

IL-12 (Costello) – D+3,

IN-01 (Visclosky) – D+8,

IN-02 (Donnelly) – R+2,

IN-07 (Carson) – D+14,

IA-01 (Braley) – D+5,

ME-01 (Pingree) – D+8,

MD-02 (Ruppersberger) – D+7,

MD-04 (Edwards) – D+31,

MD-05 (Hoyer) – D+11,

MD-07 (Cummings) – D+25,

MA-01 (Olger) – D+14,

MA-03 (McGovern) – D+9,

MA-07 (Markey) – D+15,

MA-08 (Capuano) – D+32,

MA-09 (Lynch) – D+11,

MA-10 (Delahunt) – D+5,

MI-01 (Stupak) – R+3,

MI-05 (Kildee) – D+11,

MI-13 (Kilpatrick) – D+31,

MI-14 (Conyers) – D+34,

MI-15 (Dingell) – D+13,

MN-05 (Ellison) – D+23,

MN-07 (Peterson) – R+5,

MN-08 (Oberstar) – D+3,

MS-02 (Thompson) – D+12,

MO-01 (Clay) – D+27,

MO-05 (Cleaver) – D+10,

NV-01 (Berkley) – D+10,

NJ-01 (Andrews) – D+12,

NJ-06 (Pallone) – D+8,

NJ-09 (Rothman) – D+9,

NJ-10 (Payne) – D+33,

NJ-13 (Sires) – D+21,

NY-02 (Israel) – D+4,

NY-05 (Ackerman) – D+12,

NY-06 (Meeks) – D+36,

NY-07 (Crowley) – D+26,

NY-08 (Nadler) – D+22,

NY-09 (Weiner) – D+5,

NY-10 (Towns) – D+38,

NY-11 (Clarke) – D+38,

NY-12 (Velazquez) – D+33,

NY-15 (Rangel) – D+41,

NY-16 (Serrano) – D+41,

NY-17 (Engel) – D+18,

NY-18 (Lowey) – D+9,

NY-21 (Tonko) – D+6,

NY-27 (Higgins) – D+4,

NY-28 (Slaughter) – D+15,

NC-01 (Butterfield) – D+9,

NC-02 (Etheridge) – R+2,

NC-12 (Watt) – D+16,

ND-AL (Pomeroy) – R+10,

OH-09 (Kaptor) – D+10,

OH-10 (Kucinich) – D+8,

OH-11 (Fudge) – D+32,

OH-13 (Sutton) – D+5,

OH-17 (Ryan) – D+12,

OR-03 (Blumenauer) – D+19,

OR-05 (Schrader) – D+1,

PA-01 (Brady) – D+35,

PA-02 (Fattah) – D+38,

PA-08 (Murphy) – D+2,

PA-14 (Doyle) – D+19,

SC-05 (Spratt) – R+7,

SC-06 (Clyburn) – D+12,

TN-05 (Cooper) – D+3,

TN-09 (Cohen) – D+23,

TX-09 (Green) – D+22,

TX-15 (Hinojosa) – D+3,

TX-20 (Gonzalez) – D+8,

TX-25 (Doggett) – D+6,

TX-28 (Cuellar) – R+0,

TX-30 (Johnson) – D+27,

VT-AL (Welch) – D+13,

VA-03 (Scott) – D+20,

VA-08 (Moran) – D+16,

WA-01 (Inslee) – D+9,

WA-02 (Larsen) – D+3,

So the Republicans have confirmed candidates in 300 districts. Take a look at some of their challengers websites though and your eyeballs will bleed. They also have 12 districts with candidates that are considering a run and 4 districts with rumoured candidates.

Whilst they are still behind us numerically they have more in ours than we have in theirs, and the gap is ateadily narrowing.

They also have some huge gaps in California and New York.

They already have a full House slate in Alaska, Delaware, Florida, Montana, Nebraska, New Hampshire, Louisiana, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Oklahoma, Rhode Island, South Dakota, Utah, West Virginia, Wisconsin and Wyoming (we have 15 such states).

They also have but one slot to fill in Alabama, Arizona, Arkansas, Connecticut, Hawaii, Kansas, Kentucky, Maine,  Mississippi, North Dakota, and Vermont (we have 7 such states).

Expect candidates to bob up with increasing frequency from here on in.

Any news, gossip or thoughts in the comments please.

More updates soon.