Month: August 2009

SurveyUSA (8/10-11, likely voters):

John Garamendi (D): 26

David Harmer (R): 18

Mark DeSaulnier (D): 15

Joan Buchanan (D): 12

Anthony Woods (D): 5

Chris Bunch (R): 4

David Peterson (R): 4

Mark Loos (R): 2

Other: 4

Undecided: 11

(MoE: ±4.3%)

This looks to be the first public poll of the special election to fill the seat of former Rep. Ellen Tauscher, though the Garamendi campaign recently released an internal (.pdf) that only sampled Democrats and decline-to-state voters. The results of that poll line up fairly well to SUSA’s findings — but only for the Democratic candidates, of course. Garamendi’s poll, from Tulchin Research, pegged the Lt. Governor at 31, with DeSaulnier and Buchanan duking it out for second place at 21 and 17 points, respectively.

Interestingly, when asked, the Garamendi camp told us that they decided not to poll GOP voters in order to save money, and that they felt that no one candidate on the Democratic side would be a particularly strong draw of Republican votes. The DeSaulnier campaign objected, saying that the partial glimpse Garamendi’s poll offered put the legitimacy of the results into question, but SUSA’s crosstabs suggest that Garamendi, in fact, had the most to gain from including Republicans in his sample (other than the GOP candidates, of course); SUSA finds that 14% of Republican voters choose Garamendi, compared to 3% each for Buchanan and DeSaulnier. At this point, a Garamendi-Harmer run-off seems to be the smart bet.

RaceTracker Wiki: CA-10

Okay, so as my first diary, I’m sure this is overly long, but I wanted to add a lot of data and analysis as I could because I am relentlessly geeky.

So read on, if you dare…

Shout-out: Dave’s Redistricting App.

Missouri Congressional districts Post-2010 Census

With Missouri most likely dropping a seat and with the redistricting authority evenly split between the Democratic Governor and Republican Legislature, incumbency protection and relatively even numbers of safe and swing districts should be considered priorities. Plus, with the political battles likely to be intense enough to be settled by an independent-ish panel, I figured that drawing geographically-sensical boundaries would also be important.

Therefore, I tried to keep each county in the same district (which I did successfully, barring the expected biggies–Kansas City’s Jackson and St. Louis city and county). This was done as a proxy for the “communities of interest” standard that seems to crop up when redistricting time rolls around, but I ain’t a lawyer and don’t know about no redistrictin’.  

An added bonus of this map is that each area is contiguous and geographically-sensible. Finally, in terms of population, each of the 8 districts clocks in around 739,000 using the awesome Dave App’s “Use New Pop Est” feature. The biggest variance is less than 5,000 + or – and I figure some changes from the estimate are to be expected, so some tussling around the edges should be expected. The counties of Gasconade, Crawford, Phelps, Dent, Iron, St. Francois, Montgomery and St. Clair could all be shifted between at least 3 Congressional districts to equalize populations and still be a part of pretty sensible, contiguous districts. So what I’m trying for is a good working template for starting negotiations.

Relevant recent races:

Governor – 2008 — Democrat Jay Nixon vs. Republican Kenny Hulshof 58.4-39.5

Longtime Attorney General Jay Nixon stomped the lackluster Hulshof (after Sarah Steelman weakened him severely in the primary). I use this as a sort of shorthand for what a reasonably strong Democrat could potentially do. (although some Congressmen like Ike Skelton defy the odds even further once they’re entrenched incumbents). Basically, a solid, local but new-to-a-seat Democrat could outpoll Nixon by a few points, perhaps, but not much more.

President – 2008 — Democrat Barack Obama vs. Republican John McCain 50-50

Missouri’s bellweather status ended when McCain took a 4,000 vote victory over Obama out of almost 3 million ballots cast (ftr, national average was 53-47-ish). It’s an interesting shorthand for outsiders, but its variance from the Nixon numbers is an important insight into the actual voters of a county.

With that, here we go….

St. Louis Close-Up

———–

Blue-District 1: Rep. Clay, D

Residence: St. Louis

Old Cook PVI: D+27

Gains: much of the city of St. Charles, plus that county’s eastern reaches

Loses: fairly small parts of St. Louis county & St. Louis proper

Keeps: Half of St. Louis proper, northeast chunk of St. Louis county

Analysis: As drawn, the massively-Dem PVI will shrink, but only modestly, probably to around D+16 or so. I would expect neighborhood tweaks because STL is the most densely-populated part of the state. Instead of black-majority, this district will be almost evenly matched, about 51% white to 42% black according to the app, but I’m going out on a limb and saying that shifts in population (ie-the inner suburbs getting more racially-mixed) will make this really, really close by the time the Census is held.

Effectively, St. Charles may tip the racial balance, but likely not the political one. Clay, one of MO’s two African-American Congressmen, should definitely be safe in this district, whatever its racial makeup. If the Voting Rights Act requires a black district, it should be easy enough to shift a few precincts on the margins (ie-losing parts of St. Charles, adding parts of STL) to bump it up to 50% black.

———————-

Green-District 2: Todd Akin, R

Old PVI: R+9

Residence: Town & Country

Gains: Montgomery County (pop. 12,000), Warren Co. (30,000), Franklin (100,000), Crawford (23,000), Washington (23,000), Iron (10,000), southwestern St. Charles county

Loses: Lincoln county (pop. 51,500), eastern St. Charles county

Keeps: Most of St. Charles county (though not St. Charles itself) and southwest St. Louis county

Franklin:   Obama-McCain 43-55, Nixon-Hulshof 51-47

Warren: Obama-McCain 43-56, Nixon-Hulshof 49-49

Washington:  Obama-McCain tie (5-vote margin), Nixon vs. Hulshof 67-31

Crawford: Obama-McCain 40-60, Nixon-Hulshof 52-46

Iron: Nixon-Hulshof 64-33, Obama-McCain 50-47

Analysis: Akin keeps most of his base in the western and southern sections of St. Louis county, but he loses part of St. Charles and picks up a set of rural-ish counties in return. Those rural-ish counties aren’t quite as Republican-friendly as he’d like–Obama won Washington & Iron, and stayed competitive in the rest, while Dem Gov. Nixon did very well in all of them.

The rural counties provide about 200,000 residents, while suburbanites (read: most of Akin’s base) make up the rest of this district. Akin is weakened, but only slightly. This should count as a “safe Republican” seat, especially because most of the St. Charles areas I removed are the swingiest parts of the county.

————

Purple-District 3: Russ Carnahan, D

Residence: St. Louis

Old PVI: D+7

Gains: A few more bits of St. Louis, plus St. Francois & Perry counties

–St. Francois county, pop. 63,000

Nixon-Hulshof 64-35

McCain-Obama won 51.5-47

–Perry county, pop. 18,800

Hulshof-Nixon 52-46

McCain-Obama 64-35

Loses: Not too much–a few St. Louis county and city neighborhoods where borders were tweaked.

Keeps: The aforementioned, Ste. Genevieve, Jefferson, southeastern bits of St. Louis county, roughly half of St. Louis proper

Analysis: The bits of urban St. Louis added to this district keep it from leaning too far right, and St. Francois is actually fairly moderate–Jay Nixon outperformed his statewide average here. Conservative Perry County is too small to have much effect. Carnahan should be able to hold this district.  

————-

Red-District 4: Ike Skelton, D

Residence: Lexington (Lafayette County)

Old PVI: R+14 (Obama 38-McCain 61)

Gains: Howard, Cooper, Boone, Callaway, Osage, Maries, Phelps, Gasconade, plus the south & eastern suburbs of Jackson County (Lee’s Summit, Blue Springs, Grain Valley, Lone Jack)

Loses: Barton, Vernon, Dade, Cedar, part of Polk, Dallas, Webster, Laclede, Pulaski, Camden, Ray

Keeps: Lafayette, Johnson, Henry, Pettis, Saline, Morgan, Moniteau, Cole

Analysis: This district sees some big changes to make it the probably the most swing-tastic of the new map. While Skelton can easily hold the old MO-4, it’s unlikely another Democrat could. The new MO-4 changes that to an extent, refocusing the district on the mid-section of Missouri, linking the Kansas City suburbs to Columbia and Jefferson City. In terms of community interests, it could be the “River District”, as it roughly follows the outline of the Missouri River through the middle of Missouri. But notice what else it is–an education/govt/services district. Behold….

Boone County (155,000): O-Mc 55-43, Nix-Hul 55-43  –>Columbia (MU, 30,000 students)

Cole (70,000): O-Mc 36-63, Nix-Hul 49-50  —> Jeff City (state capitol)

Johnson (50,000): O-Mc 43-55, Nix-Hul 54-43   —> Warrensburg (UCM, formerly CMSU, 10,000 students)

Phelps (43,000): O-Mc 38-60, Nix-Hul 53-44  —> Rolla (6500 students)

Pettis (40,000): O-Mc 38-60.5, Nix-Hul 55-43   —> Sedalia, state fair/services

Callaway (40,000): O-Mc 40-59, Nix-Hul 49-50 —> Fulton? Jeff City suburbs

Saline (24,000): O-Mc 48-50, Nix-Hul 57-33  —> Marshall, Missouri Valley College, 1500-ish students

Morgan (21,000): Nix-Hul 50-48

Cooper (17,000): Nix-Hul 46-52

Gasconade (15,000)

Moniteau (15,000)

Howard (10,000)

Maries (9,000)

——-

Yellow-District 5: Emanuel Cleaver

Residence: Kansas City

Old PVI: D+10

Gains: most of Cass county, all of Bates

Loses: Modest bits of southeastern suburbs of KC, like Lee’s Summit

Keeps: Most of Jackson County (Kansas City)

Analysis: Lost suburban bits compensated by swaps from northern suburbs, and the overwhelming urban tilt cancels the Cass/Bates suburban/rural tinge–no huge changes here and geographically it’s pretty similar, with mostly changes at the margins. Remains an urban district, perhaps now a smidge more conservative for a left-ish Dem like Cleaver, the former mayor of Kansas City, but still a pretty safe Dem seat.

Population centers: urban Kansas City, which went for Obama 78-21, is the majority of this district.

Cass County: Mc-O 60-40, Nix-Hul 52-46

Bates County: Mc-O 58-40, Nix-Hul 55-42

————

District 6: Sam Graves

Residence: Tarkio

Old PVI: R+7 (Bush-Kerry 57-43)

Gains: Practically every county in northern Missouri

Loses: Some Kansas City suburbs- wealthy Blue Springs and the closer-in Clay county districts

New PVI: Much more heavily Republican, probably R+15-20

Analysis: It’s the northern Missouri exurban-rural district, stretching from the northern Kansas City suburbs all the way to the outskirts of St. Louis. It becomes a blood-red district … Sam Graves is safe here as long as he wants. It’s perhaps not quite as ironclad as numbers might suggest–Nixon won a number of these counties, especially the ones that have higher populations (Buchanan, Platte, Clay). But the northeast is especially Republican and Sam Graves or a competent Republican should have no trouble holding this heavily-stacked district.

Main population centers: St. Joseph, Kansas City suburbs (Platte/Clay), rural northern Missouri

————

District 7: Roy Blunt (until the next election)

Old PVI: R+17

Gains: Barton, Vernon, Cedar, Dade, half of Taney

Loses: Polk

New PVI: Probably about the same, still heavily Republican

Analysis: It may not technically have the highest number of Republicans in terms of percentage of registered voters, but southwest Missouri is full of religious conservatives and this district will be safely, probably wingnuttily-Republican. But then again, it pretty much was before, so no major changes here. The borders expand modestly, but the flavor remains the same.

Main population centers are Joplin, Springfield and Branson (whose county, Taney, is now entirely in the 7th).

——–

District 8: Jo Ann Emerson, R

Residence:

Old PVI: R+15

Gains: Webster, Dallas, Polk, Hickory, Laclede, Benton, Camden, Miller, Pulaski, St. Clair

Loses: (other) Half of Taney, Washington, Iron, St. Francois, Perry, Phelps

Analysis: Jo Ann should like her new district–she loses the most Democrat-friendly parts (Washington, Iron, St. Francois) and picks up a slew of more conservative counties in south-central Missouri, stretching her district into the Ozarks. Although Emerson has been drifting gently toward the center (which basically means support stem cell research and uh…) since being elected in 1998, she’s still definitely conservative enough to represent this new district–after all, a lot of her new counties would be used to voting for Democrat Ike Skelton, so a center-right, but not far-right representative should do the trick.

“Main population centers” are…Cape Girardeau? Poplar Bluff?

Southern MO map:

http://www.flickr.com/photos/4…

———

District 9: Blaine Lueketmeyer

Residence: St. Elizabeth, Miller County

Old PVI: R+9

Disappeared!

His district is eaten by several others, and he now lives in Jo Ann Emerson’s new 8th. He has little chance to defeat her in primary as her base makes up the vast majority of this district.

But his previous district is now split between the new ones of Skelton, Akin and Carnahan, wi

So why would Republicans sacrifice ole Blaine?

Blaine will lose because he has the least seniority, other than whoever Blunt’s replacement is. But Blunt’s district makes sense–southwest Missouri–as opposed to Blaine’s crazy-shaped current 9th (“Little Dixie” …yeah, good try).

Why else dump Blaine? Because Republicans get a lot in return. Three totally safe districts, one mostly safe one, and they have a chance on at least one, if not two, of the “Democratic” districts. Democrats will like it because it’s a better balance and they may have a chance with Akin in the future. And with Skelton unlikely to make it another decade in Congress (though I hope and pray to God he does) they’re gonna lose one forever if they don’t agree to act now. Basically, you can gerrymander Missouri a lot worse.

Overall, despite its 2008 performance, Missouri is still the ultimate swing state, and having a 4-4 delegation (with one seat that could go to Republicans) seems right.

———

Other Missouri redistricting maps:

http://www.swingstateproject.c…

http://www.swingstateproject.c…

Source:

MO Gov Race – http://www.sos.mo.gov/enrMaps/…  (MO Sec. of State’s office)

Rasmussen (8/11, likely voters, 6/16 in parens):

Arlen Specter (D-inc): 47 (51)

Joe Sestak (D): 34 (32)

Other: 3 (4)

Undecided: 16 (13)

(MoE: ±5%)

Those are the best nums for Joe Sestak yet from any pollster. (Quinnipiac had Specter up by 32 points in mid-July.) Perhaps there’s a bit of an announcement bounce for Sestak in effect here, but if these numbers are accurate, Arlen Specter has a lot to worry about.

Also interesting was this tidbit:

Among voters who favor the congressional health care plan, Specter leads 55% to 26%. However, among those who oppose the plan, Sestak leads 61% to 25%.

So, despite challenging Specter from the left, Sestak is gobbling up the early support of seemingly anti-public option Democrats. Go figure.

Rasmussen’s favorability numbers have shown little movement since June; Specter’s at 71-25 while Sestak’s sitting on an implausibly high 54-23. (That so many people have an opinion of Sestak is probably due to IVR methodology.) Quinnipiac painted a much different picture last month, with Specter carrying a 45-44 favorable rating to Sestak’s 23-7. UPDATE: Um, whoops. Sorry to realize this so late, but I was not making an apples-to-apples comparison between Rasmu’s Democratic favorability numbers and Quinnipiac’s favorability stats from all voters. My bad. Q’s Democratic numbers: Specter was at 73-16 and Sestak was at a good-but-still-mostly-unknown 30-3.

(H/T: P-Wire)

• AR-Sen (pdf): Here is a very weird set of numbers out of Arkansas, courtesy of a poll from somebody called Talk Business Quarterly. Blanche Lincoln has a 49% job approval rating, with 40% disapproval — no surprises, about what I’d expect. But on the re-elect question, the results are 27/60! (There’s some polling sleight of hand going on here, though; the question is phrased “would you vote to re-elect Blanche Lincoln as your U.S. Senator no matter who ran against her?” Well, I dunno… is Jesus going to run against her?) Also, in Arkansas, Republican wealthy guy/gaffe-prone crackpot Curtis Coleman has apparently gotten his shots and visa and can now go safely campaign in southeast Arkansas, as he officially launched his campaign today.

• CT-Sen: Chris Dodd underwent successful surgery for prostate cancer yesterday and is resting comfortably. He’ll be back to full activity in a few weeks, probably just in time for the end of recess.

• IA-Sen: Democrats nailed down a candidate to go against Chuck Grassley, although he’ll be hard-pressed to make a dent in the well-funded and inexplicably well-liked Grassley. Tom Fiegen, a former state Senator and bankruptcy attorney, will announce his candidacy on Friday. Another Dem, Iowa Democratic Veterans Caucus chair Bob Krause, is already exploring the race.

• NV-Sen: Here’s a telling little tidbit from an interview with Rep. Dean Heller, suggesting that he may have just as much of a non-aggression pact with Harry Reid as does John Ensign (or else he just lives in perpetual fear of Reid). When asked if it was best for Nevada if Reid were defeated, Heller’s response was a 14-second pause, followed by “Um. My position is that I’m going to support the Republican candidate. If we have a viable Republican candidate, that is going to be my position. So I think that speaks for itself.”

• NH-Sen: Kelly Ayotte made her public debut yesterday (although she maintains she’s not a candidate yet, despite having filed her candidacy papers), and shed a little more light on her hitherto-unknown positions on, well, everything. She seems to be running on mostly a law-and-order image, but she did reveal that she’s anti-abortion rights and anti-gay marriage.

• NY-Sen-B: With Carolyn Maloney now out of the picture, Bronx-based Rep. Eliot Engel endorsed Kirsten Gillibrand today for re-election. That brings to 12 (out of 26) Dem members of the New York House delegation who’ve endorsed her.

• HI-Gov: Rep. Neil Abercrombie, who’s running for Hawaii governor, ran into a sticky wicket: he won’t be able to transfer the $900K in his federal fund to his state fund, according to Hawaii’s Campaign Spending Commission. This puts him behind, in the fundraising game, both Republican candidate Lt. Gov. Duke Aiona and possible Dem primary opponent Honolulu mayor Mufi Hannemann, although he’s well-connected and should be able to catch up with some effort.

• NJ-Gov: In a revelation that should surprise no one, it turns out that Karl Rove discussed with Chris Christie the possibility of running for New Jersey Governor while Christie was serving in the ostensibly non-partisan position of U.S. Attorney.

• SC-Gov: Democrats may be sensing an opening in the South Carolina governor’s race after l’affaire Sanford, as yet another Dem jumped into the scrum: Dwight Drake, an attorney and lobbyist who hasn’t been elected before but is a prominent behind-the-scenes Democrat in Columbia.

• UT-Gov: Gary Herbert was sworn in as Utah’s Governor yesterday, replacing new Ambassador to China Jon Huntsman. Although Herbert is universally viewed as conservative, he rankled some conservatives by throwing a bone to the state party’s moderate wing by picking state Sen. Greg Bell to be Lt. Governor. He now has nine months to prepare for the GOP nominating convention for the 2010 special election, where possible candidates he may face include state Senators John Valentine and Steve Urquhart, state House speaker David Clark, and law professor Kirk Jowers. With Rep. Jim Matheson declining a run, the Dems’ next best bet is Salt Lake County mayor Peter Corroon.

• VA-Gov: Rasmussen takes its monthly look at the Virginia Governor’s race. Republican Bob McDonnell leads Democrat Creigh Deeds, 49-41, when leaners are pushed; the 8-point gap mirrors the R2K poll from last week, but is a drop from the 3-point gap in the July Rasmussen poll. Voters still like both of them; McDonnell’s favorables are 53/30, while Deeds’ are 48/39.

• GA-02: Rep. Sanford Bishop has an honest-to-gosh state Rep. opposing him this time, instead of the usual token Republican opposition: Mike Keown. Bishop should face little difficulty in this black-majority district he’s held since 1992, though. (H/t TheUnknown285.)

• NY-01: Speaking of Bishops, Rep. Tim Bishop also drew a bigger challenger than he’s used to, in the form of wealthy businessman Randy Altschuler, whom the NRCC had been trying to lure into the race. It remains to be seen if Altschuler, who’s never run for office before, has any political chops; the NRCC may have been loudly touting him more for his fundraising abilities, as he was a big McCain bundler and can open up his own wallet as well if need be. At any rate, it at least puts this D+0 district onto the map for 2010.

• NY-St. Sen.: It’s amazing what being in the majority can do for you: New York State Senate Democrats are now way in the lead in the fundraising, compared with the once-dominant Republicans. Dems have raised $6.9 million so far this year, compared with $2.5 million for the GOP, driven largely by shifts by unions who previously felt the need to play ball with the Republicans in order to avoid getting shut out of the discussion. The GOP still retains a cash-on-hand edge, though.

In less than 15 months the midterms will be upon us.

In 2006 we fielded candidates in 425 districts and in 2008 candidates in 421.

How will we go in 2010?

Since my last update intrepid Democrats have been confirmed in another 17 Districts.

CA-19 (Radanovich) – R+9,

CA-25 (McKeon) – R+6,

CA-41 (Lewis) – R+10,

CA-42 (Miller) – R+10,

FL-01 (Miller) – R+21,

FL-13 (Buchanan) – R+6,

FL-16 (Rooney) – R+5,

IL-15 (Johnson) – R+6,

KS-04 (Tiahrt) – R+14,

LA-02 (Cao) – D+25,

OH-12 (Tiberi) – D+1,

PA-15 (Dent) – D+2,

SC-01 (Brown) – R+10,

SC-03 (Barrett OPEN) – R+17,

TX-21 (Smith) – R+14,

TX-32 (Sessions) – R+8,

VA-01 (Wittman) – R+7,

Below the fold for all the details and hey go check out the 2010 Race Tracker Wiki over at Open Congress for all your House, Senate and Gubernatorial needs.

(Cross posted at Daily Kos, MyDD and Open Left)

Well for starters I think we can safely assume that we will field candidates in all 257 of the Districts that we currently hold.

So onto the Republican held districts:

56 GOP held Districts have confirmed Democratic Party candidates:

AL-03 (Rogers) – R+9,

AR-03 (Boozman) – R+16,

CA-03 (Lundgren) – R+6,

CA-19 (Radanovich) – R+9,

CA-24 (Gallegly) – R+4,

CA-25 (McKeon) – R+6,

CA-26 (Dreier) – R+3,

CA-41 (Lewis) – R+10,

CA-42 (Miller) – R+10,

CA-44 (Calvert) – R+6,

CA-45 (Bono Mack) – R+3,

CA-48 (Campbell) – R+6,

CA-50 (Bilbray) – R+3,

C0-06 (Coffman) – R+8,

DE-AL (Castle) – D+7,

FL-01 (Miller) – R+21,

FL-05 (Brown-Waite) – R+9,

FL-06 (Stearns) – R+10,

FL-07 (Mica) – R+7,

FL-10 (Young) – R+1,

FL-12 (Putnam OPEN) – R+6,

FL-13 (Buchanan) – R+6,

FL-14 (Mack) – R+11,

FL-16 (Rooney) – R+5,

IL-10 (Kirk) – D+6,

IL-13 (Biggert) – R+1,

IL-15 (Johnson) – R+6,

IL-18 (Schock) – R+6,

KS-04 (Tiahrt) – R+14,

KY-04 (Davis) – R+14,

KY-05 (Rogers) – R+15,

LA-02 (Cao) – D+25,

MD-06 (Bartlett) – R+13,

MN-06 (Bachmann) – R+7,

MI-11 (McCotter) – R+0,

MT-AL (Rehberg) – R+7,

NE-03 (Smith) – R+24,

NV-02 (Heller) – R+5,

NY-23 (McHugh) – R+1,

OH-02 (Schmidt) – R+13,

OH-12 (Tiberi) – D+1,

PA-06 (Gerlach) – D+4,

PA-15 (Dent) – D+2,

PA-16 (Pitts) – R+8,

SC-01 (Brown) – R+10,

SC-02 (Wilson) – R+9,

SC-03 (Barrett OPEN) – R+17,

TN-03 (Wamp OPEN) – R+13,

TN-07 (Blackburn) – R+18,

TX-21 (Smith) – R+14,

TX-26 (Burgess) – R+13,

TX-32 (Sessions) – R+8,

VA-01 (Wittman) – R+7,

VA-07 (Cantor) – R+9,

WA-08 (Reichert) – D+3,

WI-01 (Ryan) – R+2,

9 GOP held Districts have Democratic Party candidates that are considering a run:

AK-AL (Young) – R+13,

CA-04 (McClintock) – R+10,

MN-03 (Paulsen) – R+0,

NE-02 (Terry) – R+6,

NY-03 (King) – R+4,

OH-14 (LaTourette) – R+3,

TX-10 (McCaul) – R+10,

WI-06 (Petri) – R+4,

WV-02 (Capito) – R+8,

1 GOP held Districts have rumoured Democratic Party candidates:

FL-18 (Ros-Lehtinen) – R+3,

112 GOP held Districts don’t have any Democratic Party candidates:

AL-01 (Bonner) – R+14,

AL-04 (Aderholt) – R+26,

AL-06 (Bachus) – R+29,

AZ-02 (Franks) – R+13,

AZ-03 (Shadegg) – R+9,

AZ-06 (Flake) – R+15,

CA-02 (Herger) – R+11,

CA-21 (Nunes) – R+13,

CA-22 (McCarthy) – R+16,

CA-40 (Royce) – R+8,

CA-46 (Rohrabacher) – R+6,

CA-49 (Issa) – R+10,

CA-52 (Hunter) – R+9,

C0-05 (Lamborn) – R+14,

FL-04 (Crenshaw) – R+17,

FL-09 (Bilirakis) – R+6,

FL-15 (Posey) – R+6,

FL-21 (Diaz-Balart) – R+5,

FL-25 (Diaz-Balart) – R+5,

GA-01 (Kingston) – R+16,

GA-03 (Westmoreland) – R+19,

GA-06 (Price) – R+19,

GA-07 (Linder) – R+16,

GA-09 (Deal OPEN) – R+28,

GA-10 (Broun) – R+15,

GA-11 (Gingrey) – R+20,

ID-02 (Simpson) – R+17,

IL-06 (Roskam) – R+0,

IL-16 (Manzullo) – R+2,

IL-19 (Shimkus) – R+9,

IN-03 (Souder) – R+14,

IN-04 (Buyer) – R+14,

IN-05 (Burton) – R+17,

IN-06 (Pence) – R+10,

IA-04 (Latham) – R+0,

IA-05 (King) – R+9,

KS-01 (Moran OPEN) – R+23,

KS-02 (Jenkins) – R+9,

KY-01 (Whitfield) – R+15,

KY-02 (Guthrie) – R+15,

LA-01 (Scalise) – R+24,

LA-04 (Fleming) – R+11,

LA-05 (Alexander) – R+14,

LA-06 (Cassidy) – R+10,

LA-07 (Boustany) – R+14,

MI-02 (Hoekstra OPEN) – R+7,

MI-03 (Ehlers) – R+6,

MI-04 (Camp) – R+3,

MI-06 (Upton) – R+0,

MI-08 (Rogers) – R+2,

MI-10 (Miller) – R+5,

MN-02 (Kline) – R+4,

MS-03 (Harper) – R+15,

MO-02 (Akin) – R+9,

MO-06 (Graves) – R+7,

MO-07 (Blunt OPEN) – R+15,

MO-08 (Emerson) – R+17,

MO-09 (Luetkemeyer) – R+9,

NE-01 (Fortenberry) – R+11,

NJ-02 (LoBiondo) – D+1,

NJ-04 (Smith) – R+6,

NJ-05 (Garrett) – R+7,

NJ-07 (Lance) – R+3,

NJ-11 (Frelinghuysen) – R+7,

NY-26 (Lee) – R+6,

NC-03 (Jones) – R+16,

NC-05 (Foxx) – R+15,

NC-06 (Coble) – R+18,

NC-09 (Myrick) – R+11,

NC-10 (McHenry) – R+17,

OH-03 (Turner) – R+5,

OH-04 (Jordan) – R+15,

OH-05 (Latta) – R+9,

OH-07 (Austria) – R+7,

OH-08 (Boehner) – R+11,

OK-01 (Sullivan) – R+16,

OK-03 (Lucas) – R+24,

OK-04 (Cole) – R+18,

OK-05 (Fallin OPEN) – R+13,

OR-02 (Walden) – R+10,

PA-05 (Thompson) – R+9,

PA-09 (Shuster) – R+17,

PA-18 (Murphy) – R+6,

PA-19 (Platts) – R+12,

SC-04 (Inglis) – R+15,

TN-01 (Roe) – R+21,

TN-02 (Duncan) – R+16,

TX-01 (Gohmert) – R+21,

TX-02 (Poe) – R+13,

TX-03 (Johnson) – R+14,

TX-04 (Hall) – R+21,

TX-05 (Hensarling) – R+17,

TX-06 (Barton) – R+15,

TX-07 (Culberson) – R+13,

TX-08 (Brady) – R+25,

TX-11 (Conaway) – R+28,

TX-12 (Granger) – R+16,

TX-13 (Thornberry) – R+29,

TX-14 (Paul) – R+18,

TX-19 (Neugebaeur) – R+26,

TX-22 (Olsen) – R+13,

TX-24 (Marchant) – R+11,

TX-31 (Carter) – R+14,

UT-01 (Bishop) – R+21,

UT-03 (Chaffetz) – R+26,

VA-04 (Forbes) – R+4,

VA-06 (Goodlatte) – R+12,

VA-10 (Wolf) – R+2,

WA-04 (Hastings) – R+13,

WA-05 (McMorris Rodgers) – R+7,

WI-05 (Sensenbrenner) – R+12,

WY-AL (Lummis) – R+20,

So we now have candidate in 313 House Districts, 9 Districts with candidates considering their options and 1 with rumoured candidates.

In this stage in 2007 we had candidates in about 323 Districts but we do now hold 20 more districts. hhhhmmmmmm

Whilst at this stage there is no real cause for concern vis a vis candidate recruitment, so much more remains to be done.

On the upside we already have a full slate in 15 states – Arkansas, Connecticut, Delaware, Hawaii, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Montana, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico :), North Dakota, Rhode Island, South Dakota & Vermont.

We also have only 1 district to fill in 8 states – Alaska, Colorado, Idaho, Mississippi, Oregon, South Carolina, West Virginia and Wyoming.  

On the other hand however Texas is a problem for us as it has been for the last two cycles with 17 Districts still to fill, and less than 5 months to close of filings (January 4th). So too do we have far too many vancancies in California and Florida but at least in these 2 states we do already have candidates in a number of Republican districts.

Any news, gossip or thoughts in the comments please.

• FL-Sen: As the angling for a one-and-a-half-year fill-in for Mel Martinez’s Senate seat continues, there’s already been one prominent “no thanks,” from Jeb Bush (not that anyone would expect Charlie Crist to pick him, as there’s been a lot of Crist/Bush friction and Crist wouldn’t want to risk having a placeholder overshadow him). Meanwhile, a likelier pick, 70-year-old former Republican Rep. Clay Shaw (a Gold Coast moderate who served in the House from 1980 to his 2006 defeat) shot his hand up and said “pick me pick me!”

• IL-Sen: Chicago Urban League president (and former Rod Blagojevich spokeperson) Cheryle Jackson made her entry into the Democratic senatorial primary field official yesterday. However, the Illinois SEIU chapter, one of the state’s major unions, came out with an Alexi Giannoulias endorsement today, which, given their resources, moves him closer to having a lock on the nod. I’m wondering if they’re announcing in response to Jackson… or to Roland Burris, who keeps popping his head back up.

• KS-Sen: Not much change in the GOP Senate primary in Kansas since we last looked. SurveyUSA finds that Rep. Jerry Moran has a 38-32 lead over Rep. Todd Tiahrt, propelled along by a 78-13 edge in the state’s western portion. Moran led by 2 in June and 4 in April.

• NY-Sen-B, NY-16: It didn’t register much, at a time when all speculation focused on Rep. Carolyn Maloney, but several months ago Rep. Jose Serrano said he would consider a primary run against Kirsten Gillibrand. Yesterday he made clear that he wouldn’t get in the race (although he still didn’t sound very enthused about Gillibrand), which means that none of her former House colleagues are left planning a primary challenge.

• MN-Gov: Add one more second-tier Republican to the huge pile of prospects for the open Minnesota governor’s race: state Senator Mike Jungbauer, a religious rightist from exurban Anoka County, formally kicked off his campaign. He does already have one important endorsement in his corner; he was “called by God” to run.

• NJ-Gov: Today’s Quinnipiac poll has a slightly better showing for Jon Corzine, in line with last week’s R2K poll, though it’s far from time to start talking “comeback.” He cuts the lead to 9 points, 51-42, in a two-way poll of likely voters, down from 53-41 in July. More importantly, Corzine trails Chris Christie 46-40 in a three-way that includes independent Chris Daggett (who’s up to 7%). Campaign Diaries observes that the centrist Daggett (a former EPA regional administrator) is probably absorbing a lot of protest votes, keeping Democrats and moderate indies who hate Corzine from going over to Christie. If Corzine wins, he’ll owe Daggett a big ol’ “thank you.”

• NY-Gov The NYT reports on growing discomfort by various downballot electeds on the prospect of having David Paterson at the top of the ticket. Both Reps. Michael McMahon and Dan Maffei worry about the effect of Paterson’s low approvals spilling over into their own races. Not to worry: although it’s buried deep in the story, the Times says that powerful local Dems are pushing Paterson to stand down and make way for Andrew Cuomo — and that local bigwigs have been tugging at White House sleeves, hoping they’ll find a nice appointed position for Paterson soon.

• CA-10: The John Garamendi camp released an internal poll from Tulchin Research giving Garamendi a sizable edge in the upcoming special election: Garamendi is at 31, Mark DeSaulnier is at 21, Joan Buchanan is at 17, Anthony Woods is at 9, and Republican David Harmer is at 5. There’s a wrinkle with this poll, though (one that didn’t elude the DeSaulnier campaign): it’s a poll only of Democratic and decline-to-state voters, but the primary election is an all-party primary with one pool of votes (although under California law, the top Democrat and Republican will advance, not simply the top 2). In response to our inquiry, the Tulchin crew said that polling Republicans as well just wasn’t cost-effective, especially since there are six Republicans running and therefore there isn’t likely to be much party-line crossing.

In other CA-10 news, Garamendi got another bit of good news: he got the endorsement of both Bill Clinton and Al Gore (he was a deputy Secretary of Interior for part of the Clinton administration). However, a SurveyUSA that only tested favorables for the CA-10 candidates didn’t have good news for much of anyone: Garamendi is at 30/34, DeSaulnier is at 22/23, and Buchanan is at 16/25. Only up-and-comer Woods is in positive (if generally unknown) territory, at 14/13.

• CT-04: With presumptive GOP nominee state Senate minority leader John McKinney staying out, not one but two other GOPers got in the race against Democratic freshman Rep. Jim Himes. One was the party’s likely #2 choice, state Senator Dan Debicella; the other is Rob Merkle, a political novice but the wealthy owner of a financial services recruitment firm.

• PA-06: Maybe journalist Doug Pike won’t have the Dem primary to himself after all, now that Rep. Jim Gerlach is committed to the gubernatorial race. Bob Roggio, the little-known businessman who almost beat Gerlach in 2008, said he hasn’t “ruled it out.” Also, while there doesn’t seem to be anything tangible, there are indications that state Sen. Andy Dinniman, the Dems’ highest-profile elected official in the pivotal Chester County portion of the district, is “increasingly rumored to be seriously considering” the race.

Good news and bad news for Handsome Harry Reid.

The good news:

Nevada Rep. Dean Heller has decided not to run against Harry Reid (D-Nev.), robbing Republicans of their top recruit against the Senate Majority Leader in 2010, according to an informed source.

Heller, who was elected to the vast 2nd district in 2006, called National Republican Senatorial Committee Chairman John Cornyn (Texas) earlier today to pass on his decision.

Heller turned down the race despite internal Republican polling — conducted by the Tarrance Group — that showed him leading Reid by nine points.

The bad news: the GOP has released internal polling showing Reid losing to Nevada GOP Chair Susan Lowden, which may as well be Generic R at this point.

Vitale & Associates (7/29-30, likely voters):

Harry Reid (D-inc): 42

Susan Lowden (R): 48

Undecided: 10

(MoE: ±4.4%)

Yeah, this poll was commissioned by “Lowden supporters” who are trying to draw her into the race, but before you dismiss these numbers out of hand, bear in mind that PPP’s Democratic polling guru, Tom Jensen, finds these numbers very believable. Tweeting at your face:

I can believe NV poll showing Reid trailing. Fresh polls in Ark. and Co. prob. wouldn’t be pretty for Dems either.

RaceTracker Wiki: NV-Sen

Our latest moves:

CT-Sen (Dodd): Lean D to Tossup

Chris Dodd may have received a bit of good news lately on the Countrywide mortgage fiasco (the Senate Ethics Committee cleared him of any wrongdoing and the Hartford Courant’s editorial page recently came to his defense on the matter, saying that there was no there there), but it really remains to be seen whether or not the damage done to his reputation can reverse itself. The most recent Q-Poll has ex-Rep. Rob Simmons beating Dodd by a 48-39 margin; if an incumbent under 50 is in an ugly situation, an incumbent under 40 is in seriously dangerous waters. While we’ve held out hope that Dodd can correct his course, he doesn’t seem to be doing any better than running in place. His best hope right now may be for an extremely expensive, nasty Republican primary.

Of course, with the recent news that Dodd is undergoing treatment for prostate cancer, it’s possible that he may choose to retire, in which case this race will be turned upside-down yet again. (J)

IL-Sen (Open): Likely D to Lean D

It’s difficult to imagine Barack Obama’s home state voting to put a check on the White House’s power next year, but with Rep. Mark Kirk making his candidacy official and popular state Attorney General Lisa Madigan taking a pass on the race, the GOP has about as good of a shot as they’re gonna get. Yes, Kirk didn’t exactly have the smoothest launch possible, but his most recent Twitterfail isn’t the kind of stuff that will sear itself into anyone’s lasting memory besides the most diehard of newsjunkies. What he does bring to the table, though, is the resume of a battle-hardened incumbent who has performed the rare feat of surviving in a Dem-leaning district since 2000.

The likely Democratic nominee, on the other hand, state Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias, is bringing some baggage to the table in the form of his family’s bank loans to convicted felons and his unsuccessful overhaul of the state’s college investment program — a fund that lost $85 million under Giannoulias’ watch. Giannoulias touts his ties to Barack Obama at every possible moment, but it remains to be seen whether Obama, who is notoriously squeamish when it comes to campaigning for fellow Democrats, will come to his aid anytime soon.

Of course, the news that Roland Burris may be reconsidering his decision to retire doesn’t help things out in the least. The sheer power of Illinois’ blue slant is the only thing keeping this race out of the Tossup column. (J)

MA-Gov (Patrick): Likely D to Lean D

Deval Patrick’s approval ratings are bad even by the standards of most other governors in northeast and Rust Belt states. On top of that, a recent Boston Globe poll shows Patrick narrowly trailing both of his prospective Republican opponents. This poll is also likely to encourage Democrat-turned-Independent state Treasurer Tim Cahill to get into the race. The good news for Democrats is that Cahill seems to sop up most of the Democratic anti-Patrick protest votes that were going to the Republicans. The bad news for Patrick, in particular, though, is that there are just so many protest votes that it’s plausible Cahill could ride them to victory. It’s entirely possible that, a year from now, we could have two “Lean I” races on our board (here and in Rhode Island). (C)

It’s done:

Nearly 12 hours after they first convened at the Minnowbrook Conference Center on the shore of this Adirondack gem, the 11 county party chairs comprising the 23rd Congressional District picked Bill Owens, a Plattsburgh attorney, as the Democratic Party’s candidate to replace John McHugh in Congress.

At first glance this seems to be a bit of an odd choice — I’m not sure what Owens, a registered independent, brings to the table here. There has been a bit of buzz about him, with a “national Democratic source” telling the New York Daily News’ Elizabeth Benjamin that “everybody is talking about this guy Owens, saying he’s the best of what’s left” after Aubertine pulled the plug. I have to hope that there’s something impressive about him, because he beat out two other finalists with more apparent advantages — one of whom had serious financial backing (McGrath) and the other a legitimate political resume (Sullivan).

UPDATE: CQ mentions a possible reason why Dems selected Owens, a former Air Force captain, for the job — they believe he may be willing to bankroll his own race. Perhaps the county party chairs were able to squeeze out an estimate from him.

LATER UPDATE: The Hill has a lil’ more:

Owens himself cited his work creating the Plattsburgh Airbase Redevelopment Corporation — known as PARC — as his key qualification. […]

Already, Owens strove to emulate [Rep. Scott] Murphy, who ran his campaign largely based on support for President Obama’s economic stimulus plan and distanced himself from traditional politics, all while associating himself with a president whose approval ratings were sky-high.

“I’m not a career politician.  I’m a veteran who proudly served my country in the Air Force and I have demonstrated the same commitment to bringing jobs to our community,” Owens said in a statement.

RaceTracker Wiki: NY-23