Month: January 2010

Public Policy Polling (PDF) (1/22-25, likely voters, no trendlines):

Alexi Giannoulias (D): 42

Mark Kirk (R): 34

Undecided: 24

Cheryle Jackson (D): 36

Mark Kirk (R): 38

Undecided: 26

David Hoffman (D): 36

Mark Kirk (R): 37

Undecided: 27

(MoE: ±3%)

Surprisingly nice numbers from PPP on the Senate general election, with Dem state treasurer Alexi Giannoulias putting up a sizable lead against Republican Rep. Mark Kirk, while Kirk barely beats the two other little-known Dems. Giannoulias has favorables of 31/19 (suggesting he’s been weathering the Broadway Bank brouhaha all right, although that may have gotten more amped up in the days since this sample was completed, reaching a climax with the consent order the Giannoulias family-owned bank signed with the FDIC on Tuesday) while Kirk is at 27/22. Jackson and Hoffman’s main problem, vis-a vis Kirk, seems to be their lower profiles, as their favorables are 16/17 and 16/11 respectively. One other amusing little tidbit: it may be good that Roland Burris isn’t attempting to stand for election; his approval is 14/60, the worst PPP has ever seen for a sitting Senator. (See also conspiracy‘s diary.)

PPP also has gubernatorial numbers from the same sample:

Pat Quinn (D-inc): 35

Jim Ryan (R): 42

Undecided: 24

Pat Quinn (D-inc): 36

Andy McKenna (R): 42

Undecided: 22

Dan Hynes (D): 40

Jim Ryan (R): 35

Undecided: 25

Dan Hynes (D): 38

Andy McKenna (R): 36

Undecided: 26

(MoE: ±3%)

It looks like Pat Quinn may have been fatally wounded by a combination of getting hammered by ads from both Democratic primary challenger Dan Hynes and potential Republican opponent Andy McKenna — as well as the general anti-incumbent tide these days — as his approvals have sunk to a dire 25/55. Quinn is also seen losing in November to both McKenna and Republican former AG Jim Ryan, while Hynes (the state’s Comptroller) squeaks by both of them, suggesting the problem here is Quinn more so than the Democratic brand. However, it’s looking likelier and likelier that Quinn doesn’t even make it out of the Democratic primary, as seen not only in PPP‘s previously reported primary numbers but also new primary numbers from Rasmussen (1/25, likely voters):

Pat Quinn (D-inc): 37

Dan Hynes (D): 43

Some other: 6

Not sure: 14

(MoE: ±6%)

I’d initially had my doubts about why Hynes would want to challenge a sitting Governor when there was an open Senate seat for the taking, but apparently he knew what he was doing — he knew what Quinn’s weaknesses were, how to hit them, and is peaking at the right time. I gotta wonder if Lisa Madigan is second-guessing herself these days for not wanting to take on Quinn when she had the chance.

UPDATE: Rasmussen also just came out with Democratic Senate primary numbers from the same sample, showing both of Giannoulias’s challengers topping the 20-percent mark.

Alexi Giannoulias (D): 31

David Hoffman (D): 23

Cheryle Jackson (D):  23

Some other: 9

Not sure: 24

(MoE: ±6%)

RaceTracker: IL-Sen | IL-Gov

Roxanne Conlin’s campaign for U.S. Senate released partial fundraising numbers yesterday, and they are impressive:

Total cash raised (Nov. 2 – Dec. 31):

$603,575.44

Cash on hand:

$502,832.84

Total individual donors:  1,649 (1,395 Iowans/85% Iowans)

Online supporters signed up:  Over 31,000

Donations $100 and under: 1,332

Donations $250 and under: 1,433

All of Conlin’s campaign contributions came from individual supporters, because she has pledged not to accept contributions from federal lobbyists or PACs. (I wouldn’t have advised her to take that stance, because there are PACs and lobbyists fighting for good things as well as those working against the public interest.) In any event, she has shown that she can raise enough money to staff and run a statewide campaign. Conlin is about a third of the way through a 99-county tour she began earlier this month.

I haven’t seen year-end fundraising numbers from Senator Chuck Grassley yet. At the end of the third quarter of 2009, he had more than $4.4 million cash on hand, so clearly he will still be way ahead in the money race. During the third quarter, when Grassley played a high-profile role in health care reform negotiations, he raised $864,622 total, of which $364,295 came from political action committees.

In other words, Conlin raised more from individual donors in two months than Grassley raised from individuals during the third quarter. That’s a strong pace, and it suggests a lot of Iowans are motivated to take the fight to Grassley. Conlin has already raised nearly five times as much as Democrat Art Small spent during his entire 2004 campaign against Iowa’s senior senator.

I don’t have new fundraising numbers from the other Democrats running against Grassley. Bob Krause raised $7,430 during the third quarter, ending with $3,493 on hand. Tom Fiegen raised $3,781 during the third quarter, ending with $519 on hand. I like many of the statements I’ve heard from Krause and Fiegen, but they have yet to show that they will be able to run a statewide campaign, and therefore appear to be extreme underdogs leading up to the Democratic primary in June. Neither Krause nor Fiegen seems likely to drop out of this race, however. On the contrary, Fiegen called on Conlin to quit the race last month, saying Republican attacks on her would divert attention from Grassley and the “needs of working families.” Yesterday Krause criticized one of Conlin’s tax credit proposals.

Grassley will be very tough to beat. His approval rating has fallen but is still above 50 percent, and he has set a goal of raising $9 million for this race. Even if Democrats don’t manage to defeat Grassley, giving him a spirited challenge is well worth the effort. Driving up turnout among Democrats whom Grassley has alienated can only help our candidates down-ticket.

UPDATE: Rasmussen conducted a one-day poll of this race on January 26. Grassley leads Conlin 59 to 31, Krause 59 to 26 and Fiegen 61 to 25 (margin of error 4.5 percent).

At last some good news! PPP finds State Treasurer and Democratic frontrunner Alexi Giannoulias leading GOP Congressman Mark Kirk 42-34.

http://publicpolicypolling.blo…

Interestingly, though Kirk edges indies 33-27, Alexi leads among moderates by 45-25. He also has slightly better favorables. I wonder if the airing of all the dirty laundry in the primary is helping get it out of the way.

Jackson and Hoffman trail but it is basically a statistical tie. Since Giannoulias has a clear lead in the recent primary polls this is probably academic.

For those of you who saw the State of the Union last night, you may remember Obama said he was heading to Florida today to talk about a high speed rail project that was starting today. Well, the addendum here is Gov. Crist, Republican candidate for US Senate, is appearing with The President at the ground breaking ceremony.

Crist took a political pounding for standing with Obama a year ago for promoting the stimulus project. It is now a year later and Crist is doing the same thing all over again. Crist has some political smarts, there would have to be a real reason for him making such a poor political move as he’s beginning to sink in his upcoming primary election. The New Republic is now asking openly if Crist is thinking about changing parties.

http://www.tnr.com/blog/jonath…

I went over to Crist’s website in mid-December (it has changed since then) and noticed there was not much in way of being a conservative with “Republican,” and “GOP” being nowhere to be found and “conservative” listed only once in reference to his fiscal policies (and really, who does NOT run as a “fiscal conservative” these days?).

There was also no issue page in December. There is one now and the issues listed seem rather . . . sensible. The only red flag I see, as a Democrat, is opposition to the Health Care reform bill.

So, what say the lot of ya? Is Crist about to bolt the GOP and join Team Blue?*

*I put my lot down in mid December and said he would join the Dems by Valentine’s Day, so I am a YES. May be a little later than Valentine’s Day, but I’m standing by my prediction.

Republicans didn’t seem to realize that Evan Bayh presented an attractive target until they pulled off their recent upset win in Massachusetts, but time is running out if they hope to find a more compelling name on the ballot than nutty ex-Rep. John Hostettler. With Mike Pence out of contention (and the rest of the state’s GOP House delegation being either deadwood or fuggin’ goofballs), it looks like Secretary of State Todd Rokita is next in the pecking order. And he’s considering it:

Indiana Secretary of State Todd Rokita (R) said Wednesday he is weighing a challenge to Sen. Evan Bayh (D).

“I continue to receive a lot of encouraging phone calls and emails from a diverse group of people,” Rokita said in a statement. “I certainly share Hoosiers’ concerns that we need real leadership in Washington – leadership that we simply aren’t getting today.”

Rokita’s statement also said he and his wife are preparing for the birth of their second son and that “we still think and pray about how we can best serve Indiana in the future – this great state that we love.”

He will have to make a decision quickly. The candidate filing deadline is Feb. 19, and Rokita would have to file a nomination petition signed by 4,500 registered voters, with at least 500 registered voters in each of the state’s nine Congressional districts.

The petitions are nothing — any halfway competent local organization could muster up 500 sigs per CD at the snap of its fingers, and I’m sure a statewide pol like Rokita could call in the chits needed to make it happen with ease. But Rokita will need to make up his mind quickly, lest the GOP be scrambling at the 11th hour to settle on a Plan C. (And you can bet that Hostettler has gotta be Plan Z.)

RaceTracker Wiki: IN-Sen

Looks like we may get our huckleberry:

Monday, after Beau Biden dropped his bomb on local and national Democrats who had been convinced he would run, [New Castle County Executive Chris] Coons started fielding calls from party luminaries, including Vice President Joe Biden and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, coaxing him to enter the race. Coons’ mother called to say she saw his name on MSNBC as a potential Senate hopeful.

The charm and pressure offensive appears to be paying dividends for the party that suddenly found itself with no candidate to run against Castle, one of the most popular politicians in Delaware history.

“I’m leaning toward running,” Coons said Tuesday, adding that he would announce his decision by early next week. “This all emerged very quickly.”

Rasmussen also has a poll out (1/25, likely voters, no trendlines):

Mike Castle (R): 56

Chris Coons (D): 27

Other: 5

Undecided: 13

(MoE: ±4.5%)

This is a far cry from R2K’s test in October, which showed Coons trailing by a much smaller 51-39 margin. A PPP poll from all the way back in March of 2009 had Castle up 56-21 over Coons in a hypothetical House race matchup, but I’d like to see something a lot fresher before coming to any conclusions.

(Hat-tip to Taegan on the Coons story.)

From Roll Call:

Barring a last-minute change of heart, Rep. John Boozman (R) appears set to jump into Arkansas’ Senate race in the coming days.

Sources on Capitol Hill said Wednesday that Boozman, the lone GOP Member of the state’s Congressional delegation, has made it clear that he intends to challenge Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D) in November. Boozman already has much of his Senate campaign team in place, and the announcement is expected to take place in Arkansas before the weekend is out.

When asked about a potential Senate bid Wednesday, a spokeswoman for Boozman would only say “nothing has been announced officially.”

She just got here less than two years ago, and now she may be setting her sights elsewhere:

In a move that could shake up an already hotly contested race, popular Peninsula Rep. Jackie Speier is eyeing a run for state attorney general.

Speier’s interest in returning to Sacramento, where she spent nearly 20 years in the Legislature, was sparked by a statewide poll that showed her outpacing the other Democratic candidates for AG by better than 4 to 1.

The poll of 450 likely Democratic and independent voters, taken by J. Moore Methods this month, showed Speier running first with 23 percent, followed by San Francisco District Attorney Kamala Harris at 5 percent, state Assemblyman Ted Lieu of Torrance (Los Angeles County) at 4 percent and ex-Los Angeles City Attorney Rocky Delgadillo at 3 percent. A smattering of other candidates pulled lesser numbers.

So: why the move, if she is indeed interested?

Sources say she hasn’t fully warmed up to Washington, where she has little seniority. Plus, Sacramento is a much shorter commute from the Peninsula.

The mere thought of Speier leaving Congress is certain to set off guessing over who might try to claim her seat – with everyone from state Sen. Leland Yee to San Francisco Mayor Gavin Newsom certain to be in the mix.

It’s a mad world.

RaceTracker Wiki: CA-12

Public Policy Polling (1/22-24, likely voters):

John Spratt (D-inc): 46

Mick Mulvaney (R): 39

Undecided: 15

John Spratt (D-inc): 46

Albert Spencer (R): 37

Undecided: 17

(MoE: ±4%)

I’d like these numbers if I were a Republican. Spratt, a longtime incumbent, is under the 50% danger zone mark, and his GOP opponents are still largely unknown, including highly-touted state Sen. Mick Mulvaney. (Interestingly, though, Mulvaney’s favorable rating is in net negative territory at 14-24, which is not something you normally see for undefined challengers.)

Still, there are bright spots for Spratt in the poll. From Jensen:

-47% of Spratt’s constituents think that he’s ideologically ‘about right’ compared to 34% who think he’s too liberal. That means a significant percentage of his constituents perceive Spratt differently than they do Congressional Democrats as a whole rather than lumping him in as ‘just another one of them.’ […]

What does it all add up to? Spratt leads potential Republican opponents Mick Mulvaney and Albert Spencer by margins of 46-39 and 46-37 respectively. Spratt is actually winning more of the Republican vote than either of the GOP candidates is of the Democratic vote, an unusual trend in the south where many voters registered as Democrats frequently vote for Republicans at the federal level. That’s an indication that Spratt is still in pretty strong standing with conservative Democrats and that his health care vote hasn’t ended his ability to win over some of the more moderate GOP voters.

At the same time he does trail both Republican hopefuls with independent voters by 4-9 points. Those numbers don’t seem so bad when you consider that Barack Obama’s approval rating is a miserable 27/64 spread with independents in the district though. Spratt continues to earn a lot of support from voters not enamored with the President.

The National Republican Congressional Committee has been trying to get 14-term incumbent Rick Boucher (D, VA-09) to retire, but he disappointed them today:

“I am planning to seek reelection. I have given no consideration to retiring,” Boucher said in a statement Wednesday. “While I never make political announcements this early in the year, due to the press inquires we are receiving, it is time to remove any doubt anyone has about my intentions.”

Holding this R+11 district would be a challenge if the seat opened up, but most election forecasters don’t expect Boucher to have any trouble.

If Republicans do recruit a prominent challenger to run in this district, Boucher’s vote for the Waxman-Markey American Clean Energy and Security Act last June will probably become a major issue in the campaign. Coal interests are big employers in Boucher’s district. He backed the climate change bill after securing amendments to make sure that coal usage would continue to grow between now and 2020 even if the bill became law.