Month: January 2010

YouGovPolimetrix just released a metric ton of senate polls. Be very, very warned, though: YouGov polls on the Internet. We’ve generally derided this methodology in the past (take a look at Zogby’s absurd “Interactive” polls), so consider this strictly for fun.

Arkansas

Lincoln (D-inc) 37%, Baker (R) 37%

Lincoln (D-inc) 39%, Hendren (R) 37%

Lincoln (D-inc) 38%, Coleman (R) 34%

Lincoln (D-inc) 37%, Cox (R) 36%

Colorado

Bennet (D-inc) 35%, Norton (R) 38%

Romanoff (D) 33%, Norton (R) 39%

Connecticut

Blumenthal (D) 47%, McMahon (R) 35%

Blumenthal (D) 47%, Simmons (R) 34%

Delaware

Biden (D) 37%, Castle (R) 49%

Florida

Meek (D) 34%, Crist (R) 36%

Meek (D) 33%, Rubio (R) 40%

Louisiana

Melancon (D) 32%, Vitter (R) 52%

Missouri

Carnahan (D) 43%, Blunt (R) 39%

Carnahan (D) 40%, Purgason (R) 34%

Nevada

41% Reid (D-inc), 42% Lowden (R)

43% Reid (D-inc), 41% Tarkanian (R)

North Dakota

29% Pomeroy (D), 56% Hoeven (R)

30% Heitkamp (D), 58% Hoeven (R)

Ohio

31% Fisher (D), 37% Portman (R)

31% Brunner (D), 39% Portman (R)

Pennsylvania

39% Specter (D-inc), 40% Toomey (R)

33% Sestak (D), 37% Toomey (R)

The leading Democrat in the Arizona gubernatorial race made it official the other day – rather quietly:

Democratic Attorney General Terry Goddard on Friday formally became a candidate for Arizona governor, but he wasn’t talking publicly about it.

Goddard, who so far is unopposed for the Democratic nomination, filed official papers changing his exploratory committee to a campaign committee on Friday.

But there was no news conference to mark Goddard officially entering the race, and a campaign aide said he was not available to answer questions about dropping his exploratory status, the state’s budget crisis or other topics.

In a release sent out by Goddard’s committee to announce the filing, he said, “I will be making an announcement in the weeks to come.”

And Rasmussen has some numbers for us (general | primary) (1/20, likely voters, 11/18/09 in parens):

Terry Goddard (D): 43 (44)

Jan Brewer (R-inc): 41 (35)

Other: 7 (9)

Undecided: 9 (12)

Terry Goddard (D): 35 (40)

Dean Martin (R): 44 (38)

Other: 6 (11)

Undecided: 14 (1)

(MoE: ±3%)

Dean Martin (R): 31

Jan Brewer (R): 29

John Munger (R): 7

Vernon Parker (R): 5

Other: 8

Undecided: 20

(MoE: ±4.5%)

I’d like to see some other polls first before deciding whether Goddard truly has slipped, or if he’s just been Rasmussened. Meanwhile, the GOP primary fight looks interesting. The previous primary poll had Sherriff Joe Arpaio cleaning up, but he hasn’t given any indication that he actually wants to run, so he was dropped from this survey. That makes the trendlines hard to compare, though Brewer, who was at an abysmal 10% in the last poll, is looking a lot better with Arpaio gone.

We have a couple of special elections tonight, which SSP community members have already created diaries for. In MN, MinnesotaMike is covering a state Senate special election, while Oregon has a couple of tax-related measures on the ballot, which tietack is on top of. Check those links out for full coverage.

UPDATE: We’ve lost in Minnesota, where Mike says of the results: “Disapointing, but a 6.5 point loss is as close as a Dem has come to winning this seat in decades.”

On the plus side, the ballot measures in Oregon look like they are winning by pretty decent margins, with 79% of the vote tallied:

Measure 66

Yes: 55.3%

No: 44.7%

Measure 67

Yes: 54.6%

No: 45.4%

What do these measures do?

Measures 66 & 67 raise the $10 corporate minimum for the first time since 1931, and increase the marginal tax rate on the richest Oregonians (those who make more than $250,000 a year).

UPDATE: The Oregonian has called both measures – they both pass. More analysis here.

Market Shares Corp. for the Chicago Tribune/WGN-TV (1/16-20, likely voters, 12/2-8 in parens):

Alexi Giannoulias (D): 34 (31)

Cheryle Jackson (D): 19 (17)

David Hoffman (D): 16 (9)

Other: 5 (8)

Undecided: 26 (35)

Mark Kirk (R): 47 (41)

Patrick Hughes (R): 8 (3)

Other: 10 (10)

Undecided: 35 (46)

(MoE: ±4%)

Public Policy Polling (PDF) (1/22-25, likely voters, no trendlines):

Alexi Giannoulias (D): 32

Cheryle Jackson (D): 18

David Hoffman (D): 20

Other: 3

Undecided: 27

(MoE: ±4.9%)

Mark Kirk (R): 42

Patrick Hughes (R): 9

Other: 11

Undecided: 39

(MoE: ±4.1%)

Remarkably similar numbers from both pollsters in both primaries. It looks like teabagger extraordinaire Patrick Hughes has failed to take much of a bite out of Kirk’s hide. The real question is whether Kirk’s successful rightward march to head off the likes of Hughes will damage him in the fall – or if he can pull of a charade of Scott Brownian proportions.

On the Dem side, Giannoulias seems to be in the pole position, but the Tribune, at least, seems to think Hoffman is showing some momentum. Time is pretty much out for anyone to make a move, though.

PPP also took a look at the gubernatorial primaries:

Pat Quinn (D-inc): 40

Dan Hynes (D): 41

Undecided: 19

(MoE: ±4.9%)

Kirk Dillard (R): 19

Andy McKenna (R): 17

Bill Brady (R): 16

Jim Ryan (R): 13

Adam Andrzejewski (R): 11

Other: 8

Undecided: 17

(MoE: ±4.1%)

These numbers are also in line with the Tribune’s, though Hynes is doing just a hair better here. As for the Republican slate, several of the places are switched from where the Trib had them, but all of the players are still jostling inside a very tight band. Both races are too close to call – but we’ll know the answers on Tuesday.

And, as always, SSP will be liveblogging all of the Illinois primaries.

UPDATE: Rasmussen also just put out some numbers:

Andy McKenna (R): 20

Jim Ryan (R): 16

Kirk Dillard (R): 13

Bill Brady (R): 11

Adam Andrzejewski (R): 11

Other: 12

Undecided: 17

(MoE: ±4.5%)

A special election is being held today in MN State Senate district 26 to replace Republican State Senator Dick Day who resigned to become a Lobbiest for the gambling Industry (don’t get me started).

Senate District 26 leans Republican, McCain carried it 50-47, Norm Coleman 43-36-21. Still there is hope, the two State House Reps in the district are Democrats (each Senate district in Minnesota is divided into two house districts).

The Candidates are Democrat Jason Engbrecht, a college physics professor and Faribault School Board member. Republican teabagger and bussinessman Mike Parry. Independence Party member and Waseca mayor Roy Srp (yes that is his last name).

If you want more background on the candidates I suggest you check out a fine local blog, bluestempairie.

http://www.bluestemprairie.com/

You can get the results from the SOS ofice here.

http://electionresults.sos.sta…

To win Engbrecht will have to run up the margin in Rice County, especially the City of Faribault (his hometown). I would guess he will needs at least a 10 point margin in Faribault and 5 points in Rice County as a whole. Engbrecht will have to keep it within 3-5 points in the rest of the District.

The real wildcard is the Independence Party candidate Roy Srp. He is a 3 term mayor of Waseca (3rd largest town in the District) and has more political experiance than either of the major party candidates. Waseca also happens to be the hometown of the Republican Parry. I don’t think Srp can win without any Party machinery behind him but you never know.

Prediction

Engbrecht (D) 37

Parry (R) 32

Srp (I) 31

Polls close 8 central

Local campaign workers have been concerned that this election would be affected by what happened in MA. I think they’re nuts, but we’ll see this evening.

Officially, election day is today (Jan 26). In reality, the election has been going on for a bit, since the ballots arrived in our mailboxes a couple of weeks ago.

The issues are Initiatives 66 and 67. For a quickie summary, see http://voteyesfororegon.org/wi…

Measures 66 & 67 raise the $10 corporate minimum for the first time since 1931, and increase the marginal tax rate on the richest Oregonians (those who make more than $250,000 a year).

Since all ballots must be in official Oregon vote boxes by 8pm today (I just dropped off ours at the library), we don’t suffer from the Washington time lag. (WA state accepts ballots postmarked by election day.)

Results should be known tonight/tomorrow morning, but the latest polling had the initiatives winning by a reasonable margin.

Initiative 66 raises the marginal tax rate on >$250k gross income

Initiative 67 raises the corporate minimum from $10 to $150

The poll assumes a current OR party registration of

D 47%

R 36%

I 17%

It’s a Tim Hibbitts poll, which is pretty much the gold standard for polling in Oregon.

Both measures were leading in the Hibbitts poll by 49/38. I fully expect that margin has closed a bit in these past few days, but that’s normal for a closely fought initiative campaign, especially when voters are asked to raise taxes.

Results should appear this evening, starting sometime after 8pm Pacific time at the OR SoS website at http://www.sos.state.or.us/ele… .

Updated thought – the Oregon “anti-tax” ads were more focused on the business tax (67) as opposed to the increase in taxes on >250k income (66). That’s reflected in the slight margin difference (66 is winning by a bit more than 67). But the difference in margins is less than 1%.

Second updated thought – no effect from the MA special. Yes, the Hibbitts poll suggests that a solid majority believe that we’re going in the wrong direction, but that anger didn’t affect the outcome of this election. (the MA Senate special election happened between this poll and the election)

Third updated thought (Wed 6:30 am PST) made a mistake in my vote watching – when county data says “100%”, it means 100% of those votes tabulated and counted.

(It takes a bit of time even for computers to check signatures on envelopes, open them up, before the optical scan ballots can be fed to the computer readers. Ballots are in a “secrecy” envelope, inserted into a signed mailing envelope, so there are two envelopes to open for each ballot.)

Votes that have come in late that day (e.g. from official collection stations at county libraries) aren’t yet all counted. The margins may still fluctuate a bit as those votes are counted today. (I think some counties sent their tabulaters home for the night.)

However, my eyeballing suggests that we’re now at about 97-98% counted, but maybe 3/4 of the outstanding ballots are from Multnomah Co, so the margin could grow back a bit.

Current results from the OR SoS

66 (raise the marginal rate on incomes > 250k)

yes 53.69%

no  46.31%

67 (raise the min bus tax from $10)

yes 53.03%

no  46.97%

A bullet dodged for Evan Bayh:

As many of you are aware, I have been approached about running for the United States Senate in 2010. Karen and I have been humbled by the outpouring of support and encouragement which we received from across Indiana, especially since there are several capable and qualified candidates already seeking the Republican nomination.

After much prayer and deliberation, I have decided to remain in the House and to seek reelection to the 6th Congressional District in 2010.

I am staying for two reasons. First because I have been given the responsibility to shape the Republican comeback as a member of the House Republican Leadership and, second, because I believe Republicans will win back the majority in the House of Representatives in 2010.

As it stands now, Bayh’s highest-profile Republican opponent is ex-Rep. John Hostettler, who is not known as the strongest of campaigners. Still, if Dan Quayle could beat an longtime, respected incumbent…

Been out of the loop the last few days and I’m just now getting around to talking about this.  First, let me assure everyone, Marion Berry did not leave because he was in danger of losing-his health, long something that’s been discussed among Democrats in the district, was the stated reason.  And trust me, the last time I saw the guy at an event (in 2008) he looked like a mummy.  It was time for him to retire long ago.  Still, despite some his conservative leanings, he was a great congressman and everyone in the district, except the Republicans (who could never come up with a coherent reason to run against him), likes him personally and has good things to say about him-he will be missed here.

That said, I know this district looks competitive on the surface, but from where I’m standing on the ground I don’t think it’s going to end up that way.  Republicans had one chance to make this race competitive, and that was to get state rep. Davey Carter in.  Carter has said that he absolutely will not be running, so we can rejoice that this one is off the table-the other potentials all being third tier candidates.

Now there are a ton of names being thrown around on the Dem side-basically every state rep. and state sen. that’s ever been in the district.  None of them really thrill me, but by now it’s no secret that I’m a lefty to lefties.  Anyway, here are the names I know for sure-

Former state party chair Jason Willett has long wanted this seat.  I don’t know where he stands issue wise but I do know that he was a good party chair, though an asshole by reputation.  He’d have the money to fund the race, but he came in a distant third when he ran for mayor of Jonesboro, the district’s largest town and my base of operations.

Former state senator Tim Wooldridge, a very conservative fence post who ran against Bill Halter in the ’06 primary.  He did well in the district during the initial primary, but he was hurt big among African Americans when it came out that he had jokingly proposed a bill to bring back public hangings.

Chad Causey, Berry’s cheif of staff, looks to run, apparently with Berry’s endorsement, which will help big time, though I can’t say I know much else about Causey.

Chris Thyer, the former state rep. of Jonesboro (long before I moved here), is definitely in.  Don’t know anything about him but I’m asking around.

And there are plenty of other names-I’ve heard every state legislator in the district mentioned and several former ones.  I’ll keep you guys posted as things develop.  The only name that really interests me is our State Treasurer, Martha Shoffner (one of my absolute favorite politicians due to her competence and accessibility).  She managed to win big in her race for Treasurer despite being underfunded because she excels at retail politics.  However, with the state budget and the economy being in the straits they are, she’ll probably run for reelection (if Berry had held out and retired next cycle I think she’d have been a shoe in though).

Two more things I want to say.

First, Dustin McDaniel was NEVER going to run for the House seat and everyone here new it.  His name entering this was just a case of name recognition and nothing more.  He wants to be Governor come ’14, and he may well be the favorite for that race.

Secondly, and this is just an interesting side note, one of the most talked about Republicans, who’s still third tier mind you, is Princella Smith, a self described moderate, African American, Republican active in the state party.  Now her bio in and of itself is interesting enough, but the funny thing is that I actually went to high school with her and my dad and her dad were close friends when they played on the Wynne football team back in the day.  How wild is all that?

Quinnipiac (1/20-24, registered voters, 10/12/09 – 10/18/09 in parens)

Charlie Crist (R): 44 (50)

Marco Rubio (R): 47 (35)

Undecided: 8 (12)

(MoE: ±3.8%)

Kendrick Meek (D): 36 (31)

Charlie Crist (R): 48 (51)

Undecided: 12 (14)

Kendrick Meek (D): 35 (36)

Marco Rubio (R): 44 (33)

Undecided: 19 (28)

(MoE: ±2.5%)

Rasmussen had this race tied back in December, but Quinnipiac, I believe, is the first pollster to show Rubio with a lead. Cat fud, indeed.