Month: February 2010

Cross posted at Daily Kos

Ohio Daily Blog and the Cleveland Plain Dealer are reporting that Lt. Governor Lee Fisher has fired his campaign manager, Geri Prado, and replaced her with Jay Howser, who had worked on the campaigns of Chris Dodd (D-CT) and Mary Landrieu (D?-LA).  

The reason for the Fisher fizzle is no mystery.  Despite raising massive amounts of money and endorsements, Fisher has not caught fire with the electorate, especially the Democratic primary electorate.  With more than one poll showing Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner, despite being at an enormous fundraising disadvantage, polling better in the general election against former Bush official Rob Portman, Fisher has seen his poll numbers slide slowly over time as people nationally began to realize that Jennifer Brunner’s grassroots campaign might prevail in the primary.

Fisher has also received numerous critical stories in the Washington Post over what it called a less than impressive campaign and his tapping dry his donor base has lead to a leveling off of his fundraising, the Fisher campaign is struggling to project the inevitable frontrunner status it declared in the fall.

Send a message to the DSCC, who threatened Brunner over her campaign, by donating to elect an authentic and genuine progressive to the cause.  Send a message that a Mary Landrieu-type candidate isn’t what’s needed in Ohio or the U.S. Senate.  Sign up to help Brunner with her grassroots phonebank!

Together we can win this race!

As others have commented, I had hoped that Judge Brunner would have run and held the Ohio SoS gig.

And, it is true that SOME GOPers would have been after her scalp. But I don’t give that much credence because her predecessor was just so UTTERLY incompetent that the GOP BoE members around the state secretly approved of Brunner’s performance.

And it’s more than just the ideological purists who have issues with Fisher. Although its been a few years, the last time that Lee ran statewide, to call his performance “lackluster” is being generous. He is going to have to REALLY amp up his game if he hopes to win the general.Now I see that he has fired his campaign manager. Hmmn…

And although Judge Brunner’s fundraising has been dismal, she still seems to poll pretty close to Fisher vs. the GOP candidates. And when you look at her $$, remember that ODP chair Chris Redfern and Rev. Ted have completely shut her out of “insider” money, and at this point, that’s all there is. The roots (net or otherwise) are BROKE and burned out.

Having met and chatted with Judge Brunner, I feel that her inspiration for the Senate run was Sherrod Brown. I just sense many similarities in approach and attitude.

Also, many very loyal Dems in Ohio are just sick and tired of ODP dictating statewide candidate anointing. Some of their picks have been dreadful and the results have been BAD. Going back over the last 20 years, they’ve made some REAL blunders.

It is possible that 2010 in Ohio is a disaster in the making. But, in the end, I think not.

1. Ted will hold serve. Ohioans loath voting against an incumbent, barring Coingate level scandal.

2. Even if we drop the SoS (which I grasp is a Bad Thing) we might steal the Auditor  which means reapportionment stays in our hands. (But which is apparently going to be WASTED on this gentleman’s agreement nonsense of “we lose one, they lose one.”)

3. State Legislative redistricting requires that we control (pick two) Governorship (probably retain), State House (maybe retain) or pick up the State Senate (no WAY in HELL)

4. I expect that Fisher will win the primary but he’ll struggle in the fall in a race that we SHOULD win more easily than how it’s gonna turn out. If Fisher loses either race, Redfern faces a coup d’etat and probably walks the plank.

Three paragraphs of original writing, well a picture’s worth a thousand words, right?

But in all seriousness, here are maps of the Democratic primary for both Governor and Senator.

For Governor (on left), green is for Hynes, Orange for Quinn. For Senator (on right), green is for Giannoulias, Orange for Hoffman. The color scale is slightly different for Senate, since it was a three-person race, Cheryle Jackson won exactly one county. (Too many colors is part of the reason I’m not attempting to do the Republican race at this point in the night.)

As you can see, Quinn won where it mattered: his slight margin in Cook County (especially 10% margin in the city of Chicago), is what’s pulling him across the finish line. Frankly, I think Hynes screwed up with his Harold Washington ad that enraged plenty of voters. (On the bright side, I had been considering voting GOP for governor, but now that the GOP nominee is Bill Brady, the Dem is getting my vote.)

Hynes won huge in Metro-East (Madison County by 27%, St. Clair by 5%), Springfield (Sangamon County by 24%) and Decatur (Macon County by 27%). Hynes also added to his margin in North Central Illinois, winning Peoria by 2%, Bloomington (McLean County by 3%), and LaSalle/Peru by 4%. Again, Quinn won where it matters – he didn’t get completely demolished in the collar surrounding Cook County, losing Will County by 10% but eking out wins in both Lake and DuPage. Quinn’s strongest county? Jo Daivess (and you say we’re not southern!) in the northwest corner of the state, Hynes’ was Fayette in the souther-center of the state.

For Senate, Giannoulias did extremely well downstate: that solid green represents Giannoulias at 60%+ in a 3-way race. Hoffman held his own in the population centers in Chicagoland, especially the more affluent ones, stomping out wins in Lake and DuPage. Giannoulias won the city of Chicago itself, while Hoffman squeezed out an edge in the Cook suburbs. Giannoulias’ solid margins downstate were probably too much to overcome without definitive wins in Chicago and bigger wins in the suburbs. Hoffman’s best county was Lake (49.4%), worst was Rock Island (only 18.2%). Giannoulias’ best was 63.3% in Monroe, worst was Clark, the exact reverse of Cheryle Jackson. Her 23.7% in Cook was pretty important to her strong showing though.

Lastly, of note, the collar counties’ voting powers were diluted today thanks to astronomic turnout (in comparison) in Cook County:

550,000 were cast in Cook for the Democratic primary compared to 905,000 votes for Blagojevich in 2002 (when he had a very generic Dem quality), a 60% turnout ratio compared to 2002 Democratic turnout.

34,000 votes were cast in Lake compared to 76,000 for Blago (a 44% ratio). The ratio in DuPage was 42%, 37% in Kane County, and 45% in Will County. I’m guessing the (relative) high turnout in Cook County is due to our willingness to vote out Todd Stroger (incidentally, whoo Toni Preckwinkle!).

Once we get precinct results and I make the requisite shapefiles, we can break down the city of Chicago and suburban Cook County to compare areas of strength. I’ll probably do maps for that for Governor, Senate, and Cook County Board President. Let me know what other maps you’d like…

2:00am: We’ve crossed the threshold into 99% of the vote reporting; Quinn’s lead over Hynes is 5,400, while it’s a little thinner for Brady, who’s up on Dillard by 1,484. Even if we hit 100% reporting at some point tonight, both sides may head to recounts.

1:15am: Still waiting on more numbers, but here’s an interesting bit of trivia: despite winning only 21% of the vote, it looks like Brady won 61 of the state’s 102 counties.

12:50am: Things are still stalled at 98% reporting in the governor’s race. Quinn’s up by about 5,000 on the Dem side, 50.3% to 49.7%. On the GOP side, it’s Brady has a 1,700 vote edge over Dillard, 20.6% to 20.4% (with McKenna in 3rd at 18.9%). Who would’ve ever thought Brady, who’d polled in fourth place for the most part, would pull it out? Looks like he consolidated the Downstate vote while everyone else tore each other apart in the Chicago metro area.

12:07am: It looks like Dillard should be able to pick up about 1,300 votes in the oustanding precincts (most of which are in Cook County). But that won’t be enough.

11:53pm: What a wild ride — with 97% in, Bill Brady is back up over Kirk Dillard by over 2100 votes. How many times did the lead for this race change hands tonight?

11:44pm: Over in IL-10, Julie Hamos has conceded to Dan Seals.

11:39pm: 96.3% in now, and Quinn has expanded his margin over the past few minutes to a bit under 5200 votes. With a lot of the outstanding precincts coming from Cook, Quinn looks like he’ll end up on top — but just barely. For the GOP, Dillard leads Brady by a cool grand.

11:30pm: Ethan Hastert has conceded to Randy Hultgren. Aaron Blake says Hastert has pledged to help Hultgren, unlike the helpful Oberweis/Lauzen debacle. Sigh.

11:25pm: The kids down at the SSP Labs Skunkworks have been furiously scribbling on the backs of envelopes. They tell us that if the remaining precincts follow existing trends, Quinn is likely to pick up about 2,000 more votes on Hynes.

11:20pm: 93.9% of the vote is now in, and Quinn leads by 0.6% (or 5,400 votes). The problem for Hynes is that half of the outstanding precincts are in Cook County — I’m not really sure if the outstanding votes downstate will give him enough juice to overcome that deficit.

11:10pm: With 93.1% now in, Quinn’s lead is now at 0.6%. For the GOP, Dillard has leap-frogged ahead of Brady by 2,200 votes.

11:07pm: Looks like Dan Seals has pulled out a squeaker in IL-10. With 99.2% of votes counted, he leads 22,267 to 21,605.

11:04pm: Note to Patrick Hughes and Adam Andrzejewski: The Illinois filing deadline for independent or third-party candidates is not until June 21st. You still have a second chance!

11:01pm: 91.3% of the vote is now in, and Quinn still leads by 0.8%. Note that the slightly Quinn-friendly DuPage County is now 86.5% in, and 8.3% of the vote is left uncounted in the more Quinn-friendly Cook.

10:56pm: For the GOP, Brady leads Dillard by about 3000 votes. (McKenna, in turn, trails Dillard by another 3000.)

10:54pm: With 87% in, Quinn’s lead over Hynes is down to 0.8%. DuPage is now half-in, and 9.6% of precincts are outstanding in the marginally Quinn-friendly Cook County.

10:53pm: Shira Toeplitz of Roll Call says that Hoffman has conceded.

10:51pm: Randy Hultgren seems to have this one sewn up – 54-46 lead with only 12% outstanding.

10:47pm: The Hill’s Aaron Blake says Beth Coulson has conceded IL-10 – Bob Dold! wins.

10:41pm: 82.6% of the vote is now in, and Quinn’s lead has been whittled down to 1.2%. For the GOP, Brady leads Dillard by almost 4000 votes.

10:36pm: With 81% of the vote in, Quinn holds stead at a 1.4% lead, but he’s only stemming the bleeding now that more votes are being counted in Cook (where just over 10% of the vote is outstanding). For the GOP, Brady now leads, and McKenna has slipped behind Dillard to third place. Plenty of time for that to flip around, though.

10:29pm: Photo finish? With 79% in, Quinn leads Hynes by 1.4%. For the GOP, McKenna, Brady, and Dillard are in a three-way race for the gube nod — the trio are separated by just 2000 votes.

10:23pm: They spark a fast joint in the 10th CD: Dan Seals is now up by almost 700 votes with just 2.5% remaining. And Randy Hultgren is now up 7 points.

10:22pm: Some more MN-Gov news: On the GOP side, Marty Seifert is cleaning up in the precinct caucuses, 55-34 over Tom Emmer. This will be hard for Emmer to claw his way back from… Seifert probably has to be seen as the favorite for the Republican nomination now.

10:20pm: 75% of the vote is now in, and Quinn’s lead inches down to 1.6%. And it looks like they’re taking a ganja break in IL-10.

10:17pm: 73% of the vote is now in, and Quinn leads Hynes by 1.8%. Alexi’s looking a lot more comfortable with a 4.2% lead.

10:12pm: More non-Illinois news: In Minnesota’s precinct-level caucuses, Margaret Anderson Kelliher and and RT Rybak have about 19% apiece. “Uncommitted” is in third with 14%.

10:08pm: 67% in, and Quinn’s lead has been cut down to 2.4%.

10:04pm: With 64% in (and 86% in Cook County), Quinn leads Hynes by 2.8%. Hynes is counting on the outstanding downstate votes to give him a win, but Quinn is also leading in the early DuPage county returns — and less than 10% of the vote has been counted there.

10:01pm: Sadly, in IL-03, Daniel Lipinski is winning his primary with about 77% of the vote. Not that anyone expected his unknown opponent to put up much of a fight. Still, Jorge Mujica is getting 22%… not much worse than the well-funded and somewhat-highly touted Mark Pera got in 2008 (26%).

9:56pm: It’s time for a new thread. Hultgren is up 52-48 over Hastert, with 40% reporting.

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RESULTS: Associated Press | Chicago Tribune | Sun-Times | Politico

Via Taegan Goddard comes some amazing, out-of-nowhere news:

Informed and reliable sources are telling Howey Politics Indiana that former U.S. Sen. Dan Coats will announce Wednesday he will challenge U.S. Sen. Evan Bayh.

The source, former aide Curt Smith of the Indiana Family Institute, said that Coats knows he has about two weeks to gather the 4,500 signatures – 500 per Congressional district – in two weeks.

Coats was up for re-election in 1998 when he decided to retire, citing the pressures of constant fundraising. Bayh went on that year to defeat former Fort Wayne Mayor Paul Helmke to reclaim his father’s Senate seat.

Coats was originally appointed to this seat when Dan Quayle was elected Vice President in 1988. (Coats was representing IN-04 at the time – Quayle’s old district.) He subsequently won a special election in 1990 for the final two years of Quayle’s term (beating Baron Hill, 54-46), and then won a full term in 1992 (defeating Joseph Hogsett by a much bigger 57-41 margin).

Coats is 66, but that’s not much older than the Senate median of 63. If this report is accurate and Coats does indeed jump in, this would count as a major get for Indiana Republicans.

9:57pm: Please join us in our new thread.

9:54pm: The Dem gov race is also tightening – Quinn is now up just 3.2% with 58% in.

9:53pm: Alexi’s lead is back down to 3.5% with 59% of the vote in – but is there any way for Hoffman to catch up?

9:50pm: IL-10 just got a lot tighter – Seals’ lead has shrunk to 48.1-46.5. But only 12% of precincts are left to count.

9:45pm: The GOP gov race is really, really tight. Andy McKenna is at 21.5, Kirk Dillard at 19.2, Jim Ryan at 17.2 and Bill Brady, also at 17.2 Adam Andrzejewski, the favorite of teabaggers and Lech Walesa, is all the way back in fifth place. My advice to him: Run as an independent this fall.

9:42pm: In non-Illinois news, Democrats have actually picked up an open seat in the Kentucky state House tonight, winning the seat that Republican Jimmy Higdon left behind after winning a special election to the state Senate. Nice score!

9:37pm: Quinn now leads by 4.6%, and Alexi by 4.3%.

9:35pm: Check out IL-14, where Randy Hultgren is ahead of Ethan Hastert by 51-49 with 9% in.

9:34pm: In IL-10, Seals now leads Hamos by 4.1% with 66% in. Bob Dold! leads by 9.

9:32pm: It looks like Alderman Toni Preckwinkle has won the Cook County Board Presidency.

9:31pm: Alexi is up by just 3.8% now, with 43% in. Quinn is up 5.

9:28pm: In the open-seat SoS Dem primary, it’s a dogfight between Miller and Krishnamoorthi – Miller is up 47-46.

9:25pm: In IL-10, Seals now leads Hamos by 5.3%, while Bob Dold! is cruising by over 8% with 54% in.

9:23pm: Quinn now leads by 5.6%, and Alexi is up by 4.2%. For the GOP, McKenna and Dillard are now both ahead of ex-AG Jim Ryan.

9:17pm: In IL-14, Ethan Hastert has a mere 51-49 lead over Randy Hultgren, with just 3% reporting. Brothers and sisters, let us all pray for a protracted, nasty recount.

9:15pm: In IL-11, Adam Kinzinger is cruising with 62% of the vote. Is that low? Is that high? You tell me.

9:13pm: In IL-08, Some Dude Joe Walsh leads the pack with 34% with about 42% of votes counted. The winner here gets the privilege of taking on Melissa Bean.

9:11pm: In IL-07, Danny Davis, who had vacillated between running for re-election and seeking the Cook County Board Presidency, is taking about two thirds of the vote. Not terrific for an incumbent, but the remainder is split between several candidates.

9:05pm: As for the gube race, Quinn leads Hynes by 6.8 points on the nose, while Alexi leads Hoffman by 4.5%. Hoffman has widened his lead in Lake County, but that’s more than offset by Giannoulias’ strong performance downstate. With almost 39% reporting in IL-10, Seals leads Hamos by 51.5-43.1. For the Republicans, Bob Dold! leads Coulson by about 10 points.

8:55pm: The thing is, it seems like most of the big names on tonight’s ballot call Chicago home… so it’s hard to say who, if anyone, ought to be cleaning up in the Windy City.

8:52pm: Dave Wasserman tweets that Hoffman is only up narrowly in Lake County, a place where he should have expected to do well, and suggests it’s a good sign for Alexi.

8:49pm: In IL-10, Dan Seals is up 51-44 over Julie Hamos with about 8% reporting. Bob Dold leads Elizabeth Coulson for the GOP nod, 38-30.

8:47pm: To no one’s surprise, Mark Kirk is running away with the GOP nomination. My advice to Patrick Hughes: Run as an independent this fall.

8:45pm: So with 16% of the vote in on the Dem side, Quinn has a narrow 53-47 lead. For the GOPers, Andy McKenna leads with 27%, while Ryan, Dillard and Andrzejewski are at 20, 19, and 17 respectively.

8:42pm: Politico has much quicker results. In the Senate race, it’s 37A-30H-26C, while Quinn is up 54-46 in the gov contest.

8:39pm: I don’t know why the AP is being so slow – Lake County has already counted a bunch of votes. FWIW, they have Hoffman and Hynes up.

8:27pm: Congrats to the folks in DeKalb County, who clock in with the first precinct (out of 11,215) of the night.

8:24pm: Pass the dutchie ‘pon the left hand side….

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Polls are now closed in Illinois, where we’ve got hot Democratic and Republican primaries up and down the ticket. (For a full review of the biggest races to watch, check out DavidNYC’s preview.) We’ll be using this thread to track the results as they come in.

RESULTS: Associated Press | Chicago Tribune | Sun-Times | Politico

While we’re sitting around waiting for polls to close in Illinois (closing time is 7 pm Central, meaning 8 pm Eastern and 5 pm Pacific), let’s turn the floor open to predictions for tonight. Can David Hoffman pull off the upset against Alexi Giannoulias in the Senate primary? Can Dan Hynes complete his late surge against Pat Quinn in the Democratic gubernatorial primary? Can any of the hapless Republicans in the gubernatorial primary crack 20% of the vote? What the heck is going to happen in the Cook County Board President race? To get your bearings on all these races and more (IL-08, IL-10, IL-11, IL-14), please check out DavidNYC‘s preview from this weekend.

Two other items of note tonight that you also might want to keep an eye on:

• There are also primaries in the special election in FL-19 to fill the vacancy left by Rep. Robert Wexler’s resignation, although they look devoid of drama. (Polls close at 8 pm Eastern.)

• Tonight is the first night of Minnesota’s byzantine party nominating process, starting with precinct-level caucusing. The process will wend its way through legislative district and county-level conventions, building its way up to statewide nominating conventions in April. Tonight’s caucus results, plus tonight’s informal straw polls in the governor’s race, should at least give some preliminary clues where we’re headed in Minnesota.  

• AZ-Sen: Ex-Rep. J.D. Hayworth has made it pretty clear already that he’s taking on John McCain in the Republican Senate primary, and now he’s made it official when he’s going to make it official. The launch date for his campaign: Feb. 15.

• CT-Sen, CT-02: Ex-Rep. Rob Simmons did a whole lot of bobbing and weaving when an interviewer yesterday kept pressing him on the issue of whether he’d consider dropping down to run for his old House seat again (although a spokesperson followed up afterwards, saying he will not running for anything else, “period”). The idea has to be tempting to Simmons, though, who just watched his Senate dreams vaporize with Democratic AG Richard Blumenthal’s entry, and who may by enviously eyeing efforts by some of the other 2006 victims (like Mike Fitzpatrick) to turn back the clock.

• KS-Sen: There’s still six months to go before their Republican Senate primary, but time’s running out for Rep. Todd Tiahrt to make a move against fellow Rep. Jerry Moran. Moran leads this month’s SurveyUSA poll 40-33 (two months ago Tiahrt pulled within 3, but that’s the closest he’s been). Moran is currently up 38-23 in the state’s northeast, which will be the decisive region (as they each have their respective districts already locked down).

• NV-Sen: File this under “it’s bad news even if you have to be out there repeatedly saying this,” but Harry Reid again denied (this time to Las Vegas political reporter Jon Ralston) that he’d drop out of his fizzling Senate race to make way for a different candidate. On the GOP side, one potential opponent, Sue Lowden, is up with her first TV spot, a soft-focus biographical ad. Taking note of these developments, no doubt, are Dick Durbin and Charles Schumer; insiders are observing that the two of them are both busy doling out campaign cash to their colleagues in order to build loyalties for what looks like the fight to be the next majority leader.

• NY-Sen-B: In case you missed it, last night’s point-by-point dismantling of Harold Ford Jr. by Stephen Colbert is a must-see. It clearly wasn’t the coming-out gala that Ford had envisioned.

• UT-Sen: The establishment is riding to the rescue for Bob Bennett, who could be threatened in this year’s primary if the teabagging rabble somehow coalesced behind one of his many opponents. The NRSC just handed $43K to Bennett’s campaign (an important sign to other institutional contributors), and Newt Gingrich is headlining a big-bucks fundraiser for Bennett.

• CA-Gov: Republican pollster McLaughlin & Associates (apparently not working on behalf of any of the candidates) released a poll of the Republican gubernatorial primary, finding zillionairess Meg Whitman leading zillionaire Steve Poizner, 39-12. Apparently they were in the field when Tom Campbell bailed out, as they also offer up a three-way head-to-head, which was 31 Whitman, 17 Campbell, 5 Poizner.  

• CT-Gov: A couple comings and goings in Connecticut today: as expected, Danbury mayor Mark Boughton got in the Republican field. On the Democratic side, state Sen. Gary LeBeau, who’d been polling in the low single digits, dropped out. In a moment of unusual honesty for a politician, LeBeau said, “The state has no idea who Gary LeBeau is.”

• OR-Gov: This is a bit of a surprise, but in the wake of Al Gore’s endorsement, it’s certainly an indication that ex-SoS Bill Bradbury (something of an underdog in the Democratic primary against ex-Gov. John Kitzhaber) has some powerful friends back in DC. Howard Dean will appear at several fundraisers for Bradbury in Oregon next week.

• FL-08: Here’s another surprise: brash 20-something real estate developer Armando Gutierrez dropped out of the GOP field in the 8th, despite having attracted a lot of favorable buzz and even picked up a few endorsements from members of Florida’s House delegation. The national party never warmed up to him, though, seemingly put off by his line-crashing, and he may have finally gotten the message, between the NRCC’s preferred pick, businessman Bruce O’Donoghue, officially filing yesterday, and the endorsement by neighboring Rep. Cliff Stearns of yet another Republican in the crowded field, state Rep. Kurt Kelly.

• FL-19: In all the madness over the Illinois primaries today, it’s been almost universally forgotten that the primary in the safely-blue 19th to replace resigned Rep. Robert Wexler is also today. It’s hardly worth a look, though, as state Sen. Ted Deutch pretty much has it locked down, having raised many times more money than anyone else and nailed down the establishment endorsements. Former Broward Co. Commissioner Ben Graber is the only other candidate of note.

• IN-04: Despite the advantages that his statewide profile brings him, SoS Todd Rokita won’t have the GOP field to replace retiring Rep. Steve Buyer to himself. He’ll have to face state Sen. Brandt Hershman too. Hershman has one key advantage himself: he works as an aide to Buyer, and has Buyer’s backing.

• NV-03: Here’s some good news for ex-state Sen. Joe Heck: he just got $10K to go toward his campaign against vulnerable Dem freshman Rep. Dina Titus. The bad news is: that $10K came from the PAC of John Ensign, who just won’t stop trying to make himself useful to Nevada’s other Republicans despite the fact that he’s about as popular as shingles right now. But then Heck got some more good news: he won’t face a seriously contested primary, as self-funding businessman Rob Lauer dropped his teabaggish challenge to Heck to run for SoS instead.

• NY-13: A lot of people are asking who Michael Grimm is, after he banked over $300K last quarter to go up against Democratic Rep. Michael McMahon. He’s a former FBI agent, who apparently has a lot of friends in high places… in places outside of his district. Only $3,500 of that amount came from within the actual district, and $2,000 of that was from Staten Island Republican guru Guy Molinari.

• NY-14: Live by the primary challenge, die by the primary challenge. Rep. Carolyn Maloney now faces one of her own, a well-funded challenge from the apparent right from 30-something attorney Reshma Saujani, who has previously raised serious dollars within the Indian-American community for other Democratic candidates. Saujani, believe it or not, is running on an unashamedly pro-Wall Street platform (although this is maybe the one district in the country where that might still work).

• PA-06: Two more prominent local Democrats who had endorsed Doug Pike when he was the only game in town have switched their endorsements to Manan Trivedi instead. Significantly, they’re both in Berks County (which is also where Trivedi is from, and which is where Dems have tended to run the weakest in the district in the past): Reading mayor Tom McMahon and Berks Co. Commissioner Kevin Barnhardt.

• TN-01: Would you believe that there’s a Republican who lost in one of the wave elections who isn’t running for something this year? However, before you get too excited, it’s ex-Rep. David Davis, who’d been mulling a third matchup against Rep. Phil Roe, who knocked him off in a GOP primary in this super-red district in eastern Tennessee. The not-insane Roe may be the best we can hope for in this district, especially compared with Davis, who’d been making outreach to the local teabaggers in preparation for another run.

• WV-03: A credible challenger to Democratic Rep. Nick Rahall sneaked under the rope at the filing deadline: former state Supreme Court justice Elliott Maynard. Maynard was, until recently, a Democrat, but switched parties pushed along largely by his perception of Democrats’ anti-coal environmental policies (and no doubt also influenced by West Virginia’s reddish turn over the last decade).

• OH-SoS: This was painless and easy: not only did a more progressive alternative to conservative state Rep. Jennifer Garrison get into the Secretary of State race – Franklin Co. Court Clerk Maryellen O’Shaughnessy – but she won’t even face a contested primary. Getting the message that her establishment support was practically nil, Garrison got out of the race. Meanwhile, on the Republican side, the GOP establishment seems to have settled the trouble it was having finding a replacement Auditor candidate after Mary Taylor ditched the job to run for Lt. Governor. They got Delaware Co. Prosecutor Kevin Yost to switch over from the AG’s race, where he was facing ex-Sen. Mike DeWine in a primary. That caused a lot of consternation among the state’s right-wingers, though – they were looking forward to Yost picking off the unacceptably moderate (and generally underwhelming) DeWine in the primary. Both the SoS and Auditor positions are key from a redistricting perspective, as along with the Governor they control the state’s legislative redistricting process.

• Republicans: If you haven’t checked out the details of Research 2000’s in-depth poll of the state of what Republicans believe today, please do. Although I’m not really still sure what to do with all this knowledge… except maybe acknowledge that you can’t negotiate with such irrational actors.

• Redistricting: CQ’s Josh Kurtz takes an interesting look at redistricting in California over the decades, as seen through the prism of a new book that covers the many ups and downs of legendary California Rep. Philip Burton. Will it be an incumbent protection map or an aggressive push, and how will the state’s fast-growing Latino population be accommodated?

PPP (pdf) (1/29-31, likely voters, 8/21-24 in parentheses)

Blanche Lincoln (D-inc): 33

John Boozman (R): 56

Undecided: 11

Blanche Lincoln (D-inc): 35 (40)

Gilbert Baker (R): 50 (42)

Undecided: 15 (18)

Bill Halter (D): 30

John Boozman (R): 53

Undecided: 17

Bill Halter (D): 34

Gilbert Baker (R): 45

Undecided: 21

Wesley Clark (D): 36

John Boozman (R): 51

Undecided: 13

Wesley Clark (D): 39

Gilbert Baker (R): 45

Undecided: 16

Mike Ross (D): 37

John Boozman (R): 48

Undecided: 15

Mike Ross (D): 39

Gilbert Baker (R): 39

Undecided: 22

Mike Beebe (D): 43

John Boozman (R): 44

Undecided: 13

Mike Beebe (D): 46

Gilbert Baker (R): 38

Undecided: 15

(MoE: ±3.4%)

Looks like Blanche Lincoln picked the wrong year to be a Democrat in Arkansas. Basically, Blanche Lincoln has become something of a Generic Congressional Democrat to the Arkansas electorate: 55% think that Congressional Democrats are too liberal (compared with 12% too conservative and 32% about right), and a very similar 52% think Lincoln is too liberal (with 14% too conservative and 28% about right). Clocking in at 27/62 approvals, she loses badly not only to the sort-of-known Rep. John Boozman (32/25 favorables) — who’s currently in a “I’m running but I’m not running yet” limbo — but the barely-known state Sen. Gilbert Baker (9/16, with 75% not sure).

Substitute Democrats in the race fare little better, in case Lincoln gets the message and opts for a nice health insurance industry lobbyist job instead. The problem isn’t one of personalities (seeing as Dems have a strong bench here, including a freakin’ war hero) but the statewide brand, or more specifically, the state’s perception of the national party. This is best seen with the puzzling case of Gov. Mike Beebe, here with a 59/22 approval (not astounding, but probably still one of the best among all governors) but with a walking-on-water 82/9 in a different poll last month. Even Beebe, easily the most popular man in Arkansas, still loses to Boozman and is the only Dem to get past unknown Baker. Highly suggestive that Arkansas is happy to keep its Dems in-state, but currently very unenthused about sending them to the Senate. (See also conspiracy‘s diary.)

Rasmussen (2-1, likely voters, 1/5 in parentheses)

Blanche Lincoln (D-inc): 35

John Boozman (R): 54

Some other: 4

Not sure: 7

Blanche Lincoln (D-inc): 33 (39)

Gilbert Baker (R): 52 (51)

Some other: 6 (3)

Not sure: 8 (7)

Blanche Lincoln (D-inc): 35 (39)

Kim Hendren (R): 51 (47)

Some other: 7 (4)

Not sure: 7 (10)

Blanche Lincoln (D-inc): 34 (38)

Curtis Coleman (R): 50 (48)

Some other: 7 (4)

Not sure: 9 (9)

Blanche Lincoln (D-inc): 36 (38)

Tom Cox (R): 50 (48)

Some other: 6 (5)

Not sure: 9 (9)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

It’s not every day that you see Rasmussen having a more optimistic view of a race than PPP, although here it may simply be a less catastrophic view. Boozman here leads by a mere 19. More alarming here, perhaps, are the trendlines on the races against the miscellaneous Republican parts and pieces here: they aren’t gaining ground so much as Lincoln is further losing ground, sinking down into the mid-30s regardless of opponent.

RaceTracker Wiki: AR-Sen

http://www.publicpolicypolling…

Some of the others poll better but even Beebe loses to Boozman.

Lincoln 33

Boozman 56

Lincoln 35

Baker 50

Ross 37

Boozman 48

Ross 39

Baker 39

Halter 30

Boozman 53

Halter 34

Baker 45

Clark 36

Boozman 51

Clark 39

Baker 45

Beebe 43

Boozman 44

Beebe 46

Baker 38

For all you purists Lincoln’s problems are certainly not because she isn’t liberal enough. A majority of Arkansas voters say she is too liberal.

The only silver lining is that these other Dems all have high “don’t knows” in terms of favorability but then so do both Boozman and Baker. I think we have to face facts – the state wants a Republican senator.