Month: April 2010

Public Policy Polling (4/1-5, Illinois voters, 1/22-25 in parens):

Alexi Giannoulias (D): 33 (42)

Mark Kirk (R): 37 (34)

Undecided: 30 (24)

(MoE: ±4%)

It remains to be seen whether or not this mark represents something of a low ebb for Giannoulias in the wake of a recent flare-up of the cloud of bad press related to his family’s bank that continues to dog him — or whether we can take this as a warning sign of an extremely difficult campaign to come. At the very least, the biggest chunk of undecideds are Democrats:

The main reason Giannoulias is behind is that he’s getting only 54% of the Democratic vote while Kirk is winning 77% of the Republican vote. It’s not that a lot of Democrats are planning to cross over and vote for Kirk, but 36% of them are undecided right now compared to just 16% of Republicans. That suggests Democratic voters don’t really know what to make of Giannoulias’ problems right now so they’re just taking a wait and see approach to the race.

However, Jensen also adds: “There may not be a state in the country where Democrats have a weaker top of the ticket at this point than Quinn and Giannoulas.”

That doesn’t bode well for the gubernatorial portion of this poll, which will be released later this week.

This is shaping up to get very, very ugly:

More important, two Democratic sources told POLITICO that the DCCC is working feverishly to prevent a very real scenario in which the two top Democrats split the party vote and enable Republican Charles Djou to capture the heavily Democratic seat in Hawaii’s May 22 all-party special election. […]

Determined to avert that result, the two sources said the DCCC is providing under-the-radar organizational support to former Rep. Ed Case against Democratic state Sen. Colleen Hanabusa, including assistance from DCCC Western Regional Political Director Adam Sullivan.

Those efforts have coincided with the circulation of opposition research within Washington advancing the notion that Hanabusa is a longtime insider who received significant legislative pay raises at a time when the state has suffered through economic hard times – an emerging storyline that led Hanabusa to pull down her first campaign ad touting a vote to cut state legislative salaries and concede that the spot was misleading.

Here’s the problem: While the DCCC seems to want to throw all their resources to the odious Ed Case, the local party establishment — including veteran Democratic Sens. Inouye and Akaka — is firmly behind Colleen Hanabusa. The Politico cites two unnamed sources who inform them that the DCCC is letting Inouye and Akaka know that they’re preparing to back Case, and that “senior Democratic officials” have met with the top brass at AFSCME to convince the union to drop their opposition to Case and ditch Hanabusa.

Worse, the official word from the DCCC isn’t doing anything to dispel these reports:

Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee Chairman Chris Van Hollen said Tuesday he wouldn’t rule out making an endorsement in the May special election in Hawaii’s 1st Congressional District.

As two Democrats – former Rep. Ed Case and state Senate President Colleen Hanabusa – compete against a single GOP candidate in the three-way election, Van Hollen didn’t reject reports that the DCCC may swing behind Case’s campaign.

“Our biggest focus is trying to expose [Republican Honolulu City Councilman Charles] Djou’s Republican record,” Van Hollen said after an event hosted by the Washington think tank Third Way. “I’m not saying we won’t [endorse], but our focus is on exposing the Republican’s record.”

For his part, Inouye is holding firm that the DCCC won’t pick a favorite in the race, and that he’ll fight to make sure they don’t make that mistake:

“They’re not working for case or for Hanabusa. They’re working against Djou,” Inouye said. […]

Inouye told KITV4 that he talked to House Speaker Nancy Pelosi by phone, to ensure the committee is not leaning toward supporting Case. “I said, you better look at the facts and she said she will. So I’m going to talk to her when I get back to Washington,” Inouye promised.

However, local ABC affiliate KITV has their own sources suggesting that the DCCC will ditch its neutral approach and formally back a candidate in the “next couple of weeks”.

With the local party establishment so thoroughly revolted by the prospect of an Ed Case return to the House, I think the DCCC is on the verge of making a potentially disastrous decision here that will bitterly divide the party with only weeks to go until the special election. If the DCCC really wanted to get involved, they should have done so earlier by convincing Abercrombie not to resign his seat and let this battle instead play out in the Democratic primary. As it is right now, we’re looking at the prospect of a very real — and very fierce — backlash to ham-fisted efforts from the mainland to anoint a favorite here.

The ghost of 1994 has kept hanging over the House Democrats’ heads almost this entire Congress. That’s more the product of conventional wisdom feeding upon itself and turning into a self-fulfilling prophecy than anything else, but there are legitimate warning signs on the road ahead: not just the natural pendulum-swinging that occurs during almost every midterm against the party that controls all levels of power, but also clues like the Republicans moving into the lead in many generic congressional ballots and polls showing Republicans competitive in individual House races (although many of those polls are either internals or from dubious pollsters).

On the other hand, there are plenty of reasons to expect that, while the Democrats may lose seats, there won’t be a 1994-level wipeout. There aren’t as many retirements as in 1994 (where the Dems had 28 open seats), and certainly not as many retirements in unpleasantly red seats (17 of those 1994 retirements were in GOP-leaning seats according to the Cook Political Report’s Partisan Voting Index – compared with only 8 facing us in 2010). There are still lots of polls, of the non-Rasmussen variety, giving the Dems an edge in the generic ballot. The DCCC has a sizable financial advantage, and maybe most importantly, the DCCC and its individual members appear acutely aware of the potential danger, unlike in ’94, when they seemed to blithely sail into disaster.

This week we’re going to be doing a multi-part series looking at the House in 1994, trying to draw some parallels and applying those lessons to today. To make this investigation as accessible as possible, we’re going to frame it in terms of a number of myths about 1994, and see how much reality there is to them. For instance, were the members who lost done in by their “yes” votes on tough bills? And was the impact of the post-1992, post-Voting Rights Act redistricting a killer for moderate southern Dems suddenly cast into more difficult districts? Those are problems we’ll look at in the next few days. For today, we’ll start with:

Myth #1: Losses in 1994 were full of surprises: the old and the new, the vulnerable and the safe were swept away together by the tide.

No, not especially true. According to standard diagnostic tools (such as Cook PVI or the 1992 victory margins of individual House members), the vulnerable seats were lost; the not-so-vulnerable seats were retained. The House Vulnerability Index that I’ve applied in several posts to today’s electoral cycle, in fact, does a pretty remarkable job of predicting who would have lost in 1994. If you aren’t familiar with it, it simply combines PVI and previous victory margin into one handy value that rates a particular member’s vulnerability relative to other members of the same party. (For open seats, the HVI uses a victory margin of zero.) It doesn’t predict how likely a person is to lose – that depends heavily on the nature of the year – but it does predict likelihood of losing relative to other members of the party. (Cook hasn’t officially released PVIs for this era as far as I know, but I calculated them based on the 1988 and 1992 presidential election data for each district, according to post-1992 district lines.)

As it turns out, the HVI shows that, of the 25 most vulnerable seats in 1994, 23 were lost to the Republicans. Of seats 26 through 50, another 13 were lost. And of pre-1994 Democratic House members outside the top 100 in terms of vulnerability, there were only seven losses. In other words, the wave in 1994 was high enough that it claimed not only the open seats in red districts, but sloshed upward to claim a herd of freshmen in difficult districts and also veterans who’d had troubles in recent re-elections. (But what it didn’t do was claim more than a handful of those who seemed “invulnerable” either because of district lean or 1992 margin or both.)

{Originally posted at my blog Senate Guru.}

New polling by Research 2000 finds that Republican Chuck Grassley is far more vulnerable than the conventional wisdom gives him (dis)credit for.

When asked if Grassley should be re-elected, only 42% said re-elect, while 31% said it was time for someone new, and 27% were not sure.  (Remember, being unsure about an incumbent of twenty-nine years bodes poorly for the incumbent.)  Among independents, only 39% said re-elect.  Not too hot.

The money question of the poll was:

When Senator Chuck Grassley says President Obama and Democrats would QUOTE “pull the plug on grandma” UNQUOTE do you think that does Iowa proud in Congress or embarrasses Iowa?

By more than a 2-to-1 margin (53% to 26%), Iowans responded that Grassley’s comments embarrassed them rather than made them proud.  Among independents, the embarrass-proud ratio was an overwhelming 61-21.  Research 2000 broke down the responses by Congressional district.  Outside of right-wing radical Steve King’s 5th Congressional district (which saw a 30-51 embarrass-proud ratio), every other district was overwhelmingly embarrassed by Grassley’s remarks.  The other four Congressional districts ranged from 53-64% embarrassed while only 19-24% proud.

Very interestingly, while only 35% of respondents favored the Senate version of the health care reform bill, while 56% opposed it, 62% of respondents favored a public option (a 2-to-1 margin over the 31% of respondents that opposed a public option); and, moreover, by more than a 3-to-1 margin, Iowans want Democratic Senator Tom Harkin to fight harder for a public option and would respect him more if he did.

The message from these numbers is clear: Iowans are open to voting for an alternative to Republican Chuck Grassley, would support a public option (and many who opposed health care reform in Iowa simply feel that it didn’t go far enough), and were embarrassed by Grassley’s dishonest kowtowing to the teabaggers with his “pull the plug on grandma” routine.

The Iowa Independent reminds us:

The “pull the plug on grandma” statement, which was part of the death panel meme Pulitzer Prize winning Web site PolitiFact named its “Lie of the Year,” dogged Grassley throughout the last few months of 2009 and was cited by at least one of the three Democrats vying to unseat him as the reason for entering the race.

Grassley’s own numbers must be telling him that his lies could constitute a politically fatal flub given how freaked out he got over the discussion of his comments and how he tripped over himself backpedaling:

By the end of the year, though, Grassley was blaming media reports for his association with the death panels meme. In a letter to a constituent forwarded to The Iowa Independent, Grassley said some “commentators” took his comments and twisted them as saying that health care reform would establish death panels.

“I said no such thing,” Grassley said. “As I said then, putting end-of-life consultations alongside cost containment and government-run health care causes legitimate concern.”

Who was that Democrat who cited Grassley’s comments as a reason for entering the race?  Attorney and Democratic former gubernatorial nominee Roxanne Conlin.  She got into the race in late 2009, so this past quarter’s fundraising report will be the first test of her campaign’s financial viability.  Word is, she’s a fairly prodigious fundraiser.

On top of that, Grassley has handed her the issue and according message frames on which to run.  Notably to me, Conlin has five grandchildren.  In other words, she is a grandma.  I think it would be powerfully resonant for Conlin to put out an ad highlighting Grassley’s “pull the plug on grandma” comments that embarrassed a majority of Iowans and to close the ad (while talking to the camera, surrounded by her five grandchildren) with the line, “I’m Roxanne Conlin, and I approved this message because I’m a grandma and I’m embarrassed that Chuck Grassley is talking about pulling the plug on me.”

Keep a close eye on IA-Sen; I’m expecting a competitive race that will surprise the traditional media.

AR-Sen: The Communications Workers of America, a union supporting Bill Halter, is firing back with an ad on black radio to combat Blanche Lincoln’s bullshit spot claiming she “stood with our president to pass healthcare reform.” CWA’s ad is in heavy rotation around the state, running “50 times a day” around Little Rock. They also have a new TV ad out, but no word on the size of the buy.

AZ-Sen: The U.S. Chamber of Commerce has given its first endorsement of the 2010 cycle to Sen. John McCain – but apparently cash ain’t attached. I guess the CoC, the grand doyenne of “cheap labor conservatives,” doesn’t believe Johnny Mac’s nativist turn is for real. Given what a fraud McCain has shown himself to be from top to bottom, I guess this makes sense.

CA-Sen: No, the reason John McCain can’t be found in Arizona isn’t because they took him “to a farm upstate.” He’s out in California, campaigning with Carly Fiorina.

IN-Sen: It’s not just that Dan Coats has an unsavory record as a lobbyist – his voting record seems pretty out-of-step with the crazies who make up the modern GOP base. John Hostettler is hitting Coats (albeit in the form of a web video) for things like his votes in favor of the assault weapons ban, the Brady Bill, and the Clinton crime bill – a set of votes tradmed analysts usually like to ascribe many 1994 Dem losses to.

UT-Sen: While they haven’t picked a specific horse to back yet, the Club for Growth has nonetheless spent $133K against Sen. Bob Bennett.

AZ-Gov: Democrat Terry Goddard has finally made his gubernatorial bid official.

AL-02, AL-05: GOP State Sen. Harri Anne Smith, who endorsed Dem Bobby Bright for re-election, has been kicked off her own re-election ballot by the Alabama Republican Party in retaliation. Smith lost the GOP primary in 2008 to Jay Love and apparently is still smarting over that – but this has to sting quite a bit more. Smith hasn’t decided if she’ll run as an independent instead. (Switch! Switch!) Meanwhile, the AL GOP said that turncoat Parker Griffith could stay on the Republican ballot, despite a challenge thanks to his party-switching ways.

FL-08: I’ve totally lost track of how many Republicans are trying to challenge Rep. Alan Grayson, so what’s one more? Wealthy businessman Ross Beiling, owner of a medical parts supplier, is throwing his shrimp on the barbie.

MI-07: While two Michigan Republicans have endorsed ex-Rep. Tim Walberg in his comeback bid, five others are staying neutral in the primary, which also includes Brian Rooney, younger brother of Rep. Tom Rooney (FL-16).

NY-05: Dan Halloran, a Republican who won a Dem-held seat on the NYC City Council last year, is weighing a challenge to Rep. Gary Ackerman. Halloran, a practicing Theodist, thinks he can make Ackerman pay a price for voting in favor of healthcare reform. Ackerman, for his part, has $1.1 million on hand and the support of the Queens Independence Party. This district also went 63-36 for Obama (but notably, that’s the same percentage that Kerry got, suggesting there was something of a “conservative white ethnic New Yorkers for McCain” effect here).

NY-13: The United Food and Commercial Workers Local 1500 is backing Rep. Mike McMahon, in spite of his vote against healthcare reform, citing his support of the Employee Free Choice Act. Speaking of the CWA again, though, a day ago, its local vice president, Chris Shelton, called McMahon “the Judas from Staten Island.” Personally, I think that phrase is overused, and I’m going to start calling traitors “Brutuses.”

Across the Pond: Our friends in the U.K. have scheduled their elections for May 6th. Imagine if we only had one-month campaigns here!

(I have cross-posted this diary on Calitics)

This is my first attempt at California since the partisan data by precinct became available in Dave’s Application.  

My diaries are often long, and it takes me a while to get to the point.  So, I will summarize the bottom line here:

* 43 solidly Democratic districts created; in each McCain gets 37% of vote or less (currently there are 34 Democratic representatives from California, and 1 of the 34 holds a swingy seat)

* Remaining 10 districts to GOP, with possibility that 2 of the 10 go our way at some point in the next decade

* 19 Hispanic majority districts created; 18 of the 19 are at least 55% Hispanic, so that a Hispanic representative has a real chance of being elected (currently, there are only 8 Hispanic representatives from California).   An additional 13 seats are minority-majority (with either an Asian or African-American plurality or no particular racial/ethnic minority dominant).

Now, back to the more lengthy explanation …

I wanted to create as many minority-majority or minority-plurality districts as possible.  Although in most states an increase in the number of minority-majority districts would have an inverse relationship with an increase in the number of Democratic districts, in California that relationship appears complimentary: an increase in Democratic districts goes hand-in-hand with an increase in Hispanic and other minority-majority or minority-plurality districts.

There’s one issue here that is a bit tricky.  The dataset with the Obama/McCain partisan numbers also uses 2000 census demographics.  Under the 2000 census, California was 47% white and 32% Hispanic.  However, more recent data, from the 2006-2008 American Community Survey indicates that the state was approximately 42% white and 37% Hispanic.  The ACS data does not go down to the census block level, and therefore Dave’s Application relied on Census 2000 data, to the block level, to generate racial/ethnic composition data for each precinct for the partisan data model.  On the other hand, the original dataset without partisan numbers does appear to use the more recent numbers — down to the county level (I am not sure if the ACS 2006-2008 data was used, but the resulting percentages correspond almost exactly to what the ACS numbers look like — 42% white; 37% Hispanic).

Therefore, for the purpose of this diary, I will list the demographic data for each district using the exact (yet older) demographic data, but will also provide estimated numbers using the newer (though more geographically inexact) data.  I was able to do this by “redrawing” my map from the partisan model into the original matrix without the partisan data.  So, please keep in mind that the 2006-2008 demographic numbers are just estimates, though they are closer to the current demographic situation than the 2000 data.  

To make sure that a Hispanic-majority district has enough of a minority population to provide an opportunity to elect a minority-representative, I set a benchmark for myself of at least 55% Hispanic (under the more recent estimated data) AND the Hispanic population should be at least 2 times as large as the next largest ethnic/racial group (so a district that is 55% Hispanic and 27% white would work, but 55% Hispanic and 30% white would not work).   All my Hispanic-majority districts fit the criteria except for two which are both 55% Hispanic and 28% white and one that is 50+% Hispanic and 25% white.

There are currently only eight Hispanic representatives from California.  Under this plan, that number is likely to be at least doubled.  10 new Hispanic-majority districts are created.  In addition, two other districts have enough of a Hispanic population to elect a Hispanic representative at some point in the near future.  The plan also creates three new Asian-plurality districts, three minority-majority districts (with no particular minority group that’s dominant) and strengthens CA-35 as an African-American-plurality district.

Another goal I had in mind when drawing this plan, was to keep as many counties intact as possible.  The current (2002) plan has a total of 120 “county-fragments” in the plan.  For example, the current CA-1 has 7 fragments: the whole counties of Del Norte, Humboldt, Mendocino, Lake, and Napa (that’s 5), as well as parts of Sonoma and Yolo (2 more).  Under the proposed plan here, I have 121 “county-fragments” (and that includes one tiny sliver of Sacramento Co. that’s in my CA-4, and is therefore a “fragment” only because I tried to use a small population deviation (+/- 500 persons) for each of my districts.)  Therefore, my plan is technically not any more gerrymandered than the existing plan if looking at gerrymandering through the prism of how counties are split among districts.

Last, but not least … the partisan numbers for my map …

The current map of California is, for all practical purposes, a Republican gerrymander.  It was designed in 2002 as a “bipartisan compromise” between the two parties (even though Democrats were in charge), but today the faulty map is the only thing keeping so many Republican Congressmen in office from a state that is as Democratic as California.  To demonstrate — in 2008, 31 out of 34 Democratic Representatives won by at least 68% of the vote, while 13 out of 19 Republicans won with a winning percentage of 58% or less (including four GOPers who won with 51% or less).

One of the arguments the Democrats who designed the current map made was that it was “impossible” to create any additional Democratic seats without endangering the Democratic seats that were created.  This argument is basically bs.  As you can see from this proposal and the map below, the CA-45 that I create is made up entirely out of territory currently in GOP districts.  

The proposed CA-45 encompasses parts of the current CA-45, CA-44, CA-41 and CA-49, and the resulting district is 65 Obama – 34 McCain.  The district is also quite compact and confined entirely to one county – Riverside.  Thus, it was very possible to create at least one more Democratic seat in 2002, since the creation of such a district would have had no effect on any Democratic seats that were created, as all the territory comes only out of GOP areas.  (Btw, if you are a little more creative with the lines, a district entirely within Riverside Co. that takes territory only out of currently GOP-held districts can be created that is 68 Obama – 30 McCain.  The theoretical district would extend a bit more into the city of Riverside, and lose territory elsewhere; however, in my proposed map here I wanted to put most of those Democratic Riverside areas into a new CA-48 that is also designed to be a new Democratic district.)

Another example of how California Democrats could have drawn a better map in 2002 is below.  The Democrats could have created a district in San Diego Co. that is 55 Obama – 44 McCain using only territory that comes out of the current CA-50, CA-52 and CA-49, all Republican districts.  What’s more, is that the theoretical district would arguably do a better job of keeping communities together, as the northern third of the city of San Diego would now be in only one district instead of being split between CA-50 and CA-52, and much of the northern and eastern boundaries of the district would correspond almost exactly to the northern and eastern boundaries of the city.

Although the theoretical district would be politically competitive, and not as much of a slam-dunk Democratic district as the proposed CA-45 above, it would have likely been Democratic-held today (with all other things being equal) since it would be approximately 7 points more Democratic than the current CA-50 (Francine Busby lost the special 2006 election by only 4 points and Nick Liebham lost his 2008 race by 5 points).  (Btw, in this proposed plan I decided to draw somewhat different lines in San Diego Co. and came up with three San Diego-based districts that are all 62 Obama – 37 McCain).

The examples above are not the only ones, but are just an illustration of the existing plan’s gutlessness.  The Democrats in 2002 apparently spent millions to create such a plan; it’s really a travesty that it wound up being a gerrymander that over-represents GOP strength in the state.

The proposed plan in this diary creates 10 new solidly Democratic districts.  All existing and new Democratic seats now become ones where McCain had at most 37% of the vote in 2008.  I feel that is enough of a cushion (basically 24-25 points Obama over McCain) to ensure Democratic representation.  Btw, the numbers for California as a whole were almost exactly 62% Obama; 37% McCain. (I’m classifying McNerney’s seat as currently “Republican” since it was designed that way in 2002, and could still go GOP depending on the political climate, currently being only a 54% Obama district).  I also tried to keep the geographic/political base of each Democratic incumbent intact while designing this plan.

If this plan was implemented, Democrats would be basically assured of 43 House of Representatives seats from California, with the possibility of picking up another two at some point over the next decade.  Of course, all now depends on whether Jerry Brown can win in November, and even if he wins — how bold are California Democrats willing to be.

For those arguing that Republicans should somehow have more than 10 seats from California, I reference you to three points:  1). the current plan is tilted towards the GOP and is not representative of the partisan nature of California; likewise, there are not enough Hispanic and other minority-majority districts in the state, and in order to create a map that better represents minority populations, more Democratic districts need to be created;  2). until both parties stop using gerrymandering as a political tool, there is no reason why Democrats should disarm unilaterally; and  3.) look at the recent health care debate and see just how EVERY little seat mattered !  With nine or ten more California Democrats in the House helping Pelosi, the process would have likely gone a whole lot smoother, and we would have never been even close to that precipice of defeat …

Anyhow, here’s the plan:

District 1:

Incumbent: Mike Thompson (D)

Current District:  Obama 66; McCain 32

Proposed District:  Obama 64; McCain 34

Proposed District Demographics:

2000 Census: 73 white ; 2 black ; 1 native american ; 3 asian ; 18 hispanic ; 3 other

Estimated 2006-2008: 67 white ; 2 black ; 1 native american ; 4 asian ; 23 hispanic ; 2 other

Includes all of Napa, Lake, Colusa and Glenn Counties, part of Sonoma Co. – Santa Rosa, Sonoma, Rohnert Park, Cotati, Sebastopol, and part of Butte Co. – Chico, Oroville, Paradise

District 2:  

Incumbent: Wally Herger (R)

Current District:  Obama 43; McCain 55

Proposed District:  Obama 41; McCain 57

Proposed District Demographics:

2000 Census: 78 white ; 2 black ; 2 native american ; 4 asian ; 11 hispanic ; 3 other

Estimated 2006-2008: 74 white ; 2 black ; 2 native american ; 4 asian ; 15 hispanic ; 3 other

Includes all of Siskiyou, Modoc, Shasta, Tehama, Lassen, Plumas, Sierra, Nevada, Yuba and Sutter Counties, part of Sacramento Co. and part of Butte Co. – Gridley, Biggs

District 3:  

Incumbent: Dan Lungren (R)

Current District:  Obama 49; McCain 49

Proposed District:  Obama 63; McCain 35

Proposed District Demographics:

2000 Census: 52 white ; 9 black ; 1 native american ; 13 asian ; 20 hispanic ; 4 other

Estimated 2006-2008: 46 white ; 10 black ; 1 native american ; 16 asian ; 24 hispanic ; 4 other

New minority-majority district

New Democratic district

Includes all of Yolo Co., and part of Sacramento Co. – Citrus Heights and part of city of Sacramento

District 4:  

Incumbent: Tom McClintock (R)

Current District:  Obama 44; McCain 54

Proposed District:  Obama 43; McCain 55

Proposed District Demographics:

2000 Census: 83 white ; 1 black ; 1 native american ; 3 asian ; 10 hispanic ; 3 other

Estimated 2006-2008: 79 white ; 2 black ; 1 native american ; 4 asian ; 11 hispanic ; 2 other

Includes all of Placer, El Dorado, Amador, Calaveras, Tuolumne and Mariposa Counties, and small sliver of Sacramento Co.

District 5:  

Incumbent: Doris Matsui (D)

Current District:  Obama 70; McCain 28

Proposed District:  Obama 63; McCain 35

Proposed District Demographics:

2000 Census: 60 white ; 9 black ; 1 native american ; 11 asian ; 15 hispanic ; 4 other

Estimated 2006-2008: 53 white ; 10 black ; 1 native american ; 13 asian ; 20 hispanic ; 4 other

Includes part of Sacramento Co. – incl. most of the city of Sacramento

District 6:

Incumbent: Lynn Woolsey (D)

Current District:  Obama 76; McCain 22

Proposed District:  Obama 72; McCain 26

Proposed District Demographics:

2000 Census: 78 white ; 2 black ; 2 native american ; 3 asian ; 12 hispanic ; 3 other

Estimated 2006-2008: 74 white ; 2 black ; 2 native american ; 4 asian ; 16 hispanic ; 3 other

Includes all of Del Norte, Humboldt, Trinity, Mendocino and Marin Counties, and part of Sonoma Co. – Petaluma, Windsor, Healdsburg, Cloverdale

District 7:  

Incumbent: George Miller (D)

Current District:  Obama 72; McCain 27

Proposed District:  Obama 66; McCain 33

2000 Demographics: 53 white ; 11 black ; 1 native american ; 12 asian ; 19 hispanic ; 5 other

Estimated 2006-2008 Demographics: 47 white ; 11 black ; 1 native american ; 13 asian ; 25 hispanic ; 4 other

Includes all of Solano Co. and part of Contra Costa Co. – Martinez, Pleasant Hill, Concord, Clayton, Pittsburg

District 8:  

Incumbent: Nancy Pelosi (D)

Current District:  Obama 85; McCain 12

Proposed District:  Obama 85; McCain 13

Proposed District Demographics:

2000 Census: 42 white ; 9 black ; 0 native american ; 31 asian ; 15 hispanic ; 3 other

Estimated 2006-2008: 45 white ; 7 black ; 0 native american ; 31 asian ; 15 hispanic ; 2 other

Includes most of San Francisco (district expands into Sunset District to maintain equal population)

District 9:  

Incumbent: Barbara Lee (D)

Current District:  Obama 88; McCain 10

Proposed District:  Obama 74; McCain 25

Proposed District Demographics:

2000 Census: 54 white ; 17 black ; 0 native american ; 12 asian ; 14 hispanic ; 3 other

Estimated 2006-2008: 48 white ; 16 black ; 0 native american ; 15 asian ; 18 hispanic ; 3 other

Includes part of Alameda Co. – Berkeley, Albany, Emeryville, Dublin, Livermore and part of Oakland, and part of Contra Costa Co. – Moraga, Orinda, Danville, San Ramon, Oakley

District 10:  

Incumbent: John Garamendi (D)

Current District:  Obama 65; McCain 33

Proposed District:  Obama 65; McCain 33

Proposed District Demographics:

2000 Census: 57 white ; 11 black ; 1 native american ; 11 asian ; 17 hispanic ; 4 other

Estimated 2006-2008: 49 white ; 11 black ; 0 native american ; 13 asian ; 23 hispanic ; 3 other

New minority-majority district

Includes part of Contra Costa Co. – Richmond, San Pablo, El Cerrito, Hercules, Pinole, Lafayette, Walnut Creek, Antioch, Brentwood, and part of Sacramento Co. – Isleton, Galt, Folsom

District 11:  

Incumbent: Jerry McNerney (D)

Current District:  Obama 54; McCain 44

Proposed District:  Obama 66; McCain 33

Proposed District Demographics:

2000 Census: 54 white ; 9 black ; 1 native american ; 12 asian ; 20 hispanic ; 4 other

Estimated 2006-2008: 49 white ; 8 black ; 0 native american ; 15 asian ; 24 hispanic ; 3 other

New minority-majority district

New Democratic district – that may sound strange, but this district was designed in 2002 as a GOP seat.  It has moved towards the Democrats since then, but there’s a reasonable chance the incumbent Democrat could be defeated under the current lines at some point in the future.  The proposed plan significantly increases the Democratic percentage here.

Includes part of Alameda Co. – Piedmont, Pleasanton and part of Oakland, and part of San Joaquin Co. – Tracy, Manteca, Ripon, Escalon, Lodi and part of Stockton

District 12:  

Incumbent: Jackie Speier (D)

Current District:  Obama 74; McCain 24

Proposed District:  Obama 74; McCain 24

Proposed District Demographics:

2000 Census: 50 white ; 3 black ; 0 native american ; 26 asian ; 16 hispanic ; 4 other

Estimated 2006-2008: 48 white ; 2 black ; 0 native american ; 30 asian ; 17 hispanic ; 3 other

Includes part of San Francisco and part of San Mateo Co. – Daly City, Brisbane, South San Francisco, Colma, San Bruno, Pacifica, Half Moon Bay, Millbrae, Burlingame, Hillsborough, Foster City, San Mateo, Belmont, San Carlos, Woodside and part of Redwood City

District 13:

Incumbent: Pete Stark (D)

Current District:  Obama 74; McCain 24

Proposed District:  Obama 75; McCain 23

Proposed District Demographics:

2000 Census: 36 white ; 8 black ; 1 native american ; 28 asian ; 22 hispanic ; 5 other

Estimated 2006-2008: 32 white ; 7 black ; 0 native american ; 33 asian ; 25 hispanic ; 3 other

New Asian-plurality district

Includes part of Alameda Co. – Fremont, Newark, Union City, Hayward, San Leandro, Alameda, and part of Oakland

District 14:  

Incumbent: Anna Eshoo (D)

Current District:  Obama 73; McCain 25

Proposed District:  Obama 63; McCain 35

Proposed District Demographics:

2000 Census: 59 white ; 3 black ; 1 native american ; 9 asian ; 24 hispanic ; 3 other

Estimated 2006-2008: 54 white ; 3 black ; 0 native american ; 11 asian ; 30 hispanic ; 2 other

Includes part of San Mateo Co. – Menlo Park, Atherton, East Palo Alto, Portola Valley and part of Redwood City, part of Santa Clara Co. – Palo Alto, Mountain View, Los Altos, Los Altos Hills, Monte Sereno, part of Merced Co. – Los Banos, Gustine, and part of Stanislaus Co. – Turlock, Hughson, Waterford, Oakdale, Riverbank and part of Modesto (A bit over 50% of the new district is in Silicon Valley, while the remainder is in the Central Valley.)

District 15:  

Incumbent: Mike Honda (D)

Current District:  Obama 68; McCain 30

Proposed District:  Obama 69; McCain 29

Proposed District Demographics:

2000 Census: 44 white ; 2 black ; 0 native american ; 35 asian; 15 hispanic ; 3 other

Estimated 2006-2008: 38 white ; 2 black ; 0 native american ; 42 asian ; 16 hispanic ; 2 other

New Asian-plurality district

Includes part of Santa Clara Co. – Milpitas, Santa Clara, Sunnyvale, Cupertino, Saratoga and part of San Jose

District 16:

Incumbent: Zoe Lofgren (D)

Current District:  Obama 70; McCain 29

Proposed District:  Obama 68; McCain 31

Proposed District Demographics:

2000 Census: 45 white ; 3 black ; 1 native american ; 20 asian ; 27 hispanic ; 3 other

Estimated 2006-2008: 39 white ; 3 black ; 0 native american ; 25 asian ; 30 hispanic ; 2  other

Includes part of Santa Clara Co. – Campbell, Los Gatos, Morgan Hill, Gilroy and part of San Jose

District 17:

Incumbent: Sam Farr (D)

Current District:  Obama 72; McCain 26

Proposed District:  Obama 63; McCain 35

Proposed District Demographics:

2000 Census: 67 white ; 2 black ; 1 native american ; 4 asian ; 22 hispanic ; 3 other

Estimated 2006-2008: 63 white ; 2 black ; 1 native american ; 5 asian ; 27 hispanic ; 2 other

Includes all of Santa Cruz Co., part of Monterey Co. – Monterey, Carmel, Pacific Grove, Del Rey Oaks, Sand City, Seaside, Marina, part of San Luis Obispo Co. – Paso Robles, Atascadero, Arroyo Grande, and part of Santa Barbara Co. – Lompoc, Buelton, Solvang

District 18:  

Incumbent: Dennis Cardoza (D)

Current District:  Obama 59; McCain 39

Proposed District:  Obama 61; McCain 37

Proposed District Demographics:

2000 Census: 34 white ; 4 black ; 1 native american ; 7 asian ; 50+ hispanic ; 3 other

Estimated 2006-2008: 29 white ; 4 black ; 1 native american ; 7 asian ; 59 hispanic ; 2

other

New Hispanic-majority district

Includes all of San Benito Co., part of Monterey Co. – Salinas, Gonzales, Soledad, Greenfield, King City, part of Merced Co. – Merced, Atwater, Livingston, Dos Palos, and part of Fresno Co. – Firebaugh, Mendota, San Joaquin, Coalinga, Huron, Kerman and part of city of Fresno

District 19:  

Incumbent: George Radanovich (R) (retiring)

Current District:  Obama 46; McCain 52

Proposed District:  Obama 45; McCain 53

Proposed District Demographics:

2000 Census: 40 white ; 2 black ; 1 native american ; 4 asian ; 50+ hispanic ; 2 other

Estimated 2006-2008: 35 white ; 2 black ; 1 native american ; 4 asian ; 56 hispanic ; 1 other

New Hispanic-majority district



Includes part of Madera Co. – Madera, Chowchilla, part of Fresno Co. – Sanger, Reedley, Orange Cove, Kingsburg, part of Clovis and part of the city of Fresno, and part of Tulare Co. – Tulare, Porterville, Lindsay, Farmersville, Woodlake, Dinuba

The territory contained in the proposed district is already over 50% Hispanic even under the 2000 Census numbers; it is estimated to be at least 56% Hispanic today.  The problem for Democrats is that a large proportion of the Hispanic population is undocumented and/or unregistered (also there’s a sizeable historical Portuguese population here which “skews” the Hispanic numbers).  Nevertheless, with demographic change over the next decade, this district can quickly turn our way despite the current GOP status (like CA-47 did in the 1990’s; remember Loretta Sanchez v. Bob Dornan)

District 20:  

Incumbent: Jim Costa (D)

Current District:  Obama 60; McCain 39

Proposed District:  Obama 61; McCain 37

Proposed District Demographics:

2000 Census: 22 white ; 8 black ; 2 native american ; 7 asian ; 59 hispanic ; 2 other

Estimated 2006-2008: 20 white ; 8 black ; 1 native american ; 6 asian ; 64 hispanic ; 1 other

Includes all of Kings Co.,  part of Fresno Co. – Fowler, Selma, Parlier and part of city of Fresno, and part of Kern Co. – Delano, McFarland, Wasco, Arvin and part of Bakersfield

District 21:  

Incumbent: Devin Nunes (R)*

Current District:  Obama 42; McCain 56

Proposed District:  Obama 66; McCain 33

Proposed District Demographics:

2000 Census: 31 white ; 6 black ; 1 native american ; 14 asian ; 45 hispanic ; 3 other

Estimated 2006-2008: 25 white ; 6 black ; 1 native american ; 16 asian ; 50+ hispanic ; 2 other

* District is completely “relocated” to another part of the Central Valley.  Most of Nunes’ current district is split between the new CA-19 and the new CA-22.

New Hispanic-majority district

New Democratic district

Includes part of Santa Clara Co. – part of San Jose, part of Stanislaus Co. – Newman, Patterson, Ceres and part of Modesto, and part of San Joaquin Co. – Lathrop and most of Stockton

District 22:  

Incumbent: Kevin McCarthy (R)

Current District:  Obama 38; McCain 60

Proposed District:  Obama 34; McCain 64

Proposed District Demographics:

2000 Census: 70 white ; 3 black ; 1 native american ; 4 asian ; 19 hispanic ; 3 other

Estimated 2006-2008: 65 white ; 3 black ; 1 native american ; 4 asian ; 24 hispanic ; 2 other

Includes part of Madera Co., part of Fresno Co. – part of Clovis, part of Tulare Co. – Exeter, Visalia, and part of Kern Co. – Shafter, California City, Tehachapi, Ridgecrest and part of Bakersfield

District 23:  

Incumbent: Lois Capps (D)

Current District:  Obama 66; McCain 32

Proposed District:  Obama 62; McCain 36

Proposed District Demographics:

2000 Census: 57 white ; 2 black ; 1 native american ; 4 asian ; 34 hispanic ; 2 other

Estimated 2006-2008: 53 white ; 2 black ; 0 native american ; 5 asian ; 39 hispanic ; 2 other

Includes part of San Luis Obispo Co. – Morro Bay, San Luis Obispo, Pismo Beach, Grover Beach, part of Santa Barbara Co. – Santa Maria, Guadalupe, Santa Barbara, Carpinteria, and part of Ventura Co. – Ojai, Santa Paula, Filmore, Simi Valley and part of Oxnard

District 24:  

Incumbent: Elton Gallegly (R)

Current District:  Obama 51; McCain 48

Proposed District:  Obama 62; McCain 37

Proposed District Demographics:

2000 Census: 63 white ; 3 black ; 1 native american ; 6 asian ; 26 hispanic ; 3 other

Estimated 2006-2008: 57 white ; 2 black ; 0 native american ; 7 asian ; 31 hispanic ; 2 other

New Democratic district

Includes part of Ventura Co. – Ventura, Port Hueneme, Camarillo, Moorpark, Thousand Oaks, and most of Oxnard, and part of Los Angeles Co. – Malibu, Santa Monica, Venice part of Los Angeles

District 25:

Incumbent: Howard McKeon (R)

Current District:  Obama 49; McCain 48

Proposed District:  Obama 63; McCain 35

Proposed District Demographics:

2000 Census: 30 white ; 7 black ; 1 native american ; 9 asian ; 50+ hispanic ; 2 other

Estimated 2006-2008: 28 white ; 6 black ; 1 native american ; 9 asian ; 55 hispanic ; 1 other

New Hispanic-majority district

New Democratic district

Includes all of Alpine, Mono and Inyo Counties, part of San Bernardino Co. – Adelanto, Victorville, and part of Los Angeles Co. – Baldwin Park, Irwindale, El Monte, Azusa, Covina, Claremont and parts of Pomona, Palmdale, Monrovia and Duarte

District 26:  

Incumbent: David Dreier (R)

Current District:  Obama 51; McCain 47

Proposed District:  Obama 62; McCain 37

Proposed District Demographics:

2000 Census: 24 white ; 6 black ; 1 native american ; 12 asian ; 55 hispanic ; 2 other

Estimated 2006-2008: 21 white ; 5 black ; 0 native american ; 12 asian ; 60 hispanic ; 1 other

New Hispanic-majority district

New Democratic district

Includes part of Los Angeles Co. – La Puente, South El Monte, Industry, West Covina, and part of Pomona, and part of San Bernardino Co. – Chino, Chino Hills, Montclair, and parts of Upland and Rancho Cucamonga

District 27:  

Incumbents: Brad Sherman (D)

Current District:  Obama 66; McCain 32

Proposed District:  Obama 64; McCain 34

Proposed District Demographics:

2000 Census: 54 white ; 5 black ; 1 native american ; 8 asian ; 29 hispanic ; 3 other

Estimated 2006-2008: 52 white ; 5 black ; 0 native american ; 9 asian ; 32 hispanic ; 2 other

Includes part of Kern Co. – Taft, Maricopa and part of Bakersfield, and part of Los Angeles Co. – part of Santa Clarita and part of the city of Los Angeles – parts of San Fernando Valley and Hollywood

District 28:  

Incumbent: Howard Berman (D)

Current District:  Obama 76; McCain 22

Proposed District:  Obama 64; McCain 34

Proposed District Demographics:

2000 Census: 26 white ; 7 black ; 1 native american ; 6 asian ; 58 hispanic ; 2 other

Estimated 2006-2008: 25 white ; 6 black ; 0 native american ; 6 asian ; 62 hispanic ; 1 other

Includes part of Los Angeles Co. – San Fernando, Lancaster, part of city of Los Angeles – San Fernando Valley, and part of Palmdale

This district is very likely to elect a Hispanic representative at some point in the near future

District 29:  

Incumbent: Adam Schiff (D)

Current District:  Obama 68; McCain 30

Proposed District:  Obama 63; McCain 35

Proposed District Demographics:

2000 Census: 49 white ; 7 black ; 1 native american ; 9 asian ; 31 hispanic ; 4 other

Estimated 2006-2008: 48 white ; 6 black ;  0 native american ; 10 asian ; 33 hispanic ; 2 other

Includes part of Los Angeles Co. – Burbank, Pasadena, Sierra Madre, Bradbury, Glendora, San Dimas, La Verne and part of Los Angeles

District 30:  

Incumbent: Henry Waxman (D)

Current District:  Obama 70; McCain 28

Proposed District:  Obama 64; McCain 34

Proposed District Demographics:

2000 Census: 71 white ; 3 black ; 0 native american ; 10 asian ; 13 hispanic ; 3 other

Estimated 2006-2008: 69 white ; 2 black ; 0 native american ; 11 asian ; 16 hispanic ; 2 other

Includes part of Los Angeles Co. – Beverly Hills, West Hollywood, Calabassas, Hidden Hills, Agoura Hills, Westlake Village, part of Los Angeles – parts of Bel Air and San Fernando Valley, and most of Santa Clarita

District 31:  

Incumbent: Xavier Beccera (D)

Current District:  Obama 80; McCain 18

Proposed District:  Obama 72; McCain 26

Proposed District Demographics:

2000 Census: 25 white ; 5 black ; 1 native american ; 13 asian ; 53 hispanic ; 4 other

Estimated 2006-2008: 24 white ; 4 black ; 0 native american ; 14 asian ; 56 hispanic ; 2 other

Includes part of Los Angeles Co. – Glendale, La Canada Flintridge, and part of city of  Los Angeles

District 32:  

Incumbent: Judy Chu (D)

Current District:  Obama 68; McCain 30

Proposed District:  Obama 62; McCain 36

Proposed District Demographics:

2000 Census: 22 white ; 2 black ; 1 native american ; 42 asian ; 32 hispanic ; other

Estimated 2006-2008: 20 white ; 2 black ; 0 native american ; 45 asian ; 32 hispanic ; 1 other

New Asian-plurality district

Includes part of Los Angeles Co. –  Monterey Park, Alhambra, South Pasadena, San Marino, Temple City, San Gabriel, Rosemead, Arcadia, Walnut, Diamond Bar, La Habra Heights, part of Montebello and part of Los Angeles

The district becomes plurality Asian.  Many Hispanic-majority areas of the current CA-32 are detached in order to create the new Hispanic-majority CA-25 and CA-26 just to the north and east of the new CA-32.

District 33:  

Incumbent: Diane Watson (D) (retiring)

Current District:  Obama 87; McCain 12

Proposed District:  Obama 83; McCain 16

Proposed District Demographics:

2000 Census: 11 white ; 24 black ; 1 native american ; 11 asian ; 52 hispanic ; 2 other

Estimated 2006-2008: 11 white ; 21 black ; 0 native american ; 11 asian ; 56 hispanic ; 1 other

New Hispanic-majority district

Includes part of Los Angeles Co. – Lawndale, Culver City, and parts of Los Angeles, Inglewood and Hawthorne

District 34:  

Incumbent: Lucille Roybal-Allard (D)

Current District:  Obama 75; McCain 23

Proposed District:  Obama 70; McCain 28

Proposed District Demographics:

2000 Census: 26 white ; 6 black ; 1 native american ; 11 asian ; 54 hispanic ; 2 other

Estimated 2006-2008: 24 white ; 5 black ; 0 native american ; 12 asian ; 57 hispanic ; 1 other

Includes part of Los Angeles Co. –  Downey, Bellflower, Signal Hill, Vernon, Maywood, Bell Gardens, and parts of Los Angeles and Long Beach

District 35:  

Incumbent: Maxine Waters (D)

Current District:  Obama 84; McCain 14

Proposed District:  Obama 82; McCain 16

Proposed District Demographics:

2000 Census: 15 white ; 43 black ; 1 native american ; 9 asian ; 31 hispanic ; 2 other

Estimated 2006-2008: 15 white ; 40 black ; 0 native american ; 9 asian ; 34 hispanic ; 2 other

New African-American plurality district – yes, that may sound strange, but the current CA-35 is already over 50% Hispanic; this plan combines the most African-American parts of several districts into one; otherwise, there’s a good chance a black representative may not hold a single seat in southern California at some point during the next decade, as much of south-central LA has become Hispanic-majority

Includes part of Los Angeles Co. –  Rancho Palos Verdes, Rolling Hills, Rolling Hills Estates, Avalon, and parts of Compton, Carson, Inglewood, Gardena and Hawthorne and Los Angeles (south central area and San Pedro)

District 36:  

Incumbent: Jane Harman (D)

Current District:  Obama 64; McCain 34

Proposed District:  Obama 64; McCain 35

Proposed District Demographics:

2000 Census: 58 white ; 5 black ; 0 native american ; 16 asian ; 17 hispanic ; 4 other

Estimated 2006-2008: 58 white ; 4 black ; 0 native american ; 18 asian ; 18 hispanic ; 2 other

Includes part of Los Angeles Co. – Palos Verdes Estates, Torrance, Lomita, Redondo Beach, Manhattan Beach, Hermosa Beach, El Segundo, and parts of Gardena and Los Angeles – Pacific Palisades, Brentwood, West LA and area around LAX

District 37:  

Incumbents: Laura Richardson (D)

Current District:  Obama 80; McCain 19

Proposed District:  Obama 69; McCain 29

Proposed District Demographics:

2000 Census: 21 white ; 11 black ; 1 native american ; 11 asian ; 54 hispanic ; 2 other

Estimated 2006-2008: 21 white ; 10 black ; 0 native american ; 12 asian ; 57 hispanic ; 1 other

New Hispanic-majority district



Includes part of Los Angeles Co. –  Paramount, Huntington Park, Bell, Cudahy, and parts of Los Angeles and Long Beach, and part of Orange Co. – Los Alamitos, Cypress, La Palma

District 38:  

Incumbent: Grace Napolitano (D)

Current District:  Obama 71; McCain 27

Proposed District:  Obama 62; McCain 36

Proposed District Demographics:

2000 Census: 25 white ; 2 black ; 1 native american ; 8 asian ; 62 hispanic ; 2 other

Estimated 2006-2008: 23 white ; 1 black ; 0 native american ; 8 asian ; 66 hispanic ; 1 other

Includes part of Los Angeles Co. –  Whittier, Norwalk, La Mirada, Santa Fe Springs, East LA, and parts of Los Angeles, Montebello and Pico Rivera, and part of Orange Co. – Fullerton, La Habra

District 39:

Incumbent: Linda Sánchez (D)

Current District:  Obama 65; McCain 32

Proposed District:  Obama 62; McCain 36

Proposed District Demographics:

2000 Census: 24 white ; 3 black ; 1 native american ; 15 asian ; 55 hispanic ; 2 other

Estimated 2006-2008: 22 white ; 3 black ; 0 native american ; 16 asian ; 58 hispanic ; 1 other

Includes part of Los Angeles Co. –  Lakewood, Hawaiian Gardens, Artesia, Cerritos, and parts of Los Angeles and Pico Rivera, and part of Orange Co. – Buena Park, Stanton and part of Anaheim

District 40:  

Incumbent: Ed Royce (R)

Current District:  Obama 47; McCain 51

Proposed District:  Obama 42; McCain 56

Proposed District Demographics:

2000 Census: 58 white ; 1 black ; 1 native american ; 19 asian ; 18 hispanic ; 2 other

Estimated 2006-2008: 53 white ; 1 black ; 0 native american ; 23 asian ; 21 hispanic ; 2 other

Includes part of Orange Co. – Brea, Yorba Linda, Placentia, Garden Grove, Fountain Valley, Newport Beach and part of Anaheim

District 41:  

Incumbent: Jerry Lewis (R)

Current District:  Obama 44; McCain 54

Proposed District:  Obama 40; McCain 58

Proposed District Demographics:

2000 Census: 69 white ; 4 black ; 1 native american ; 3 asian ; 19 hispanic ; 3 other

Estimated 2006-2008: 62 white ; 4 black ; 1 native american ; 5 asian ; 26 hispanic ; 2 other

Includes part of San Bernardino Co. – Hesperia, Apple Valley, Barstow, Needles, Twentynine Palms, Yucca Valley, Big Bear Lake, Yucaipa, Grand Terrace, and parts of

Upland and Redlands, and part of Riverside Co. – Banning, Beaumont, Calimesa

District 42:  

Incumbent: Gary Miller (R)

Current District:  Obama 45; McCain 53

Proposed District:  Obama 43; McCain 55

Proposed District Demographics:

2000 Census: 72 white ; 1 black ; 0 native american ; 9 asian ; 14 hispanic ; 3 other

Estimated 2006-2008: 68 white ; 1 black ; 0 native american ; 11 asian ; 17 hispanic ; 2 other

Includes part of Orange Co. – San Clemente, Dana Point, San Juan Capistrano, Laguna Niguel, Laguna Woods, Laguna Hills, Lake Forest, Orange, Villa Park, Mission Viejo, Rancho Santa Margarita

District 43:  

Incumbent: Joe Baca (D)

Current District:  Obama 68; McCain 30

Proposed District:  Obama 65; McCain 33

Proposed District Demographics:

2000 Census: 28 white ; 13 black ; 1 native american ; 4 asian ; 50+ hispanic ; 2 other

Estimated 2006-2008: 22 white ; 12 black ; 0 native american ; 5 asian ; 59 hispanic ; 2 other

Includes part of San Bernardino Co. – city of San Bernardino, Colton, Rialto, Fontana, Highland, Loma Linda, part of Redlands

District 44:

Incumbent: Ken Calvert (R)

Current District:  Obama 50; McCain 49

Proposed District:  Obama 43; McCain 55

Proposed District Demographics:

2000 Census: 66 white ; 4 black ; 1 native american ; 4 asian ; 23 hispanic ; 2 other

Estimated 2006-2008: 56 white ; 4 black ; 1 native american ; 6 asian ; 32 hispanic ; 2 other

Includes part of Riverside Co. – Norco, Corona, Canyon Lake, Murrietta, San Jacinto, Hemet, and part of city of Riverside

District 45:  

Incumbent: Mary Bono (R)

Current District:  Obama 52; McCain 47

Proposed District:  Obama 65; McCain 34

Proposed District Demographics:

2000 Census: 33 white ; 10 black ; 1 native american ; 4 asian ; 50+ hispanic ; 2 other

Estimated 2006-2008: 28 white ; 9 black ; 1 native american ; 4 asian ; 57 hispanic ; 2 other

New Hispanic-majority district

New Democratic district

Includes part of Riverside Co. – Moreno Valley, Perris, Lake Elsinore, Palm Springs, Desert Hot Springs, Cathedral City, Indio, Coachella, Blythe and part of city of Riverside

District 46:  

Incumbent: Dana Rohrabacher (R)

Current District:  Obama 48; McCain 50

Proposed District:  Obama 64; McCain 34

Proposed District Demographics:

2000 Census: 27 white ; 10 black ; 1 native american ; 7 asian ; 54 hispanic ; 1 other

Estimated 2006-2008: 24 white ; 9 black ; 0 native american ; 8 asian ; 58 hispanic ; 1 other

New Hispanic-majority district

New Democratic district

Includes part of Los Angeles Co. –  Lynwood, South Gate, and parts of Compton, Carson and city of Los Angeles, and part of Orange Co. – Seal Beach, Westminster, Huntington Beach

District 47:  

Incumbent: Loretta Sanchez (D)

Current District:  Obama 60; McCain 38

Proposed District:  Obama 62; McCain 36

Proposed District Demographics:

2000 Census: 33 white ; 2 black ; 1 native american ; 12 asian ; 51 hispanic ; 2 other

Estimated 2006-2008: 28 white ; 2 black ; 0 native american ; 13 asian ; 55 hispanic ; 1 other

Includes part of Orange Co. – Santa Ana, Irvine, Costa Mesa, Tustin, Laguna Beach, Aliso Viejo

District 48:  

Incumbent: John Campbell (R)*

Current District:  Obama 49; McCain 49

Proposed District:  Obama 62; McCain 36

Proposed District Demographics:

2000 Census: 33 white ; 8 black ; 1 native american ; 5 asian ; 50+ hispanic ; 2 other

Estimated 2006-2008: 27 white ; 7 black ; 0 native american ; 7 asian ; 58 hispanic ; 2 other

* District is completely “relocated” to another part of Southern California

New Hispanic-majority district

New Democratic district

Includes part of San Bernardino Co. – Ontario, and parts of Fontana and Rancho Cucamonga, and part of Riverside Co. – part of city of Riverside and part of Corona

District 49:  

Incumbent: Darrell Issa (R)

Current District:  Obama 45; McCain 53

Proposed District:  Obama 47; McCain 51

Proposed District Demographics:

2000 Census: 59 white ; 4 black ; 1 native american ; 6 asian ; 28 hispanic ; 3 other

Estimated 2006-2008: 54 white ; 3 black ; 0 native american ; 6 asian ; 34 hispanic ; 2 other

Includes part of San Diego County – Oceanside, Vista, Carlsbad, San Marcos, Escondido, Camp Pendleton

This district becomes slightly more Democratic, and there’s a chance it may go our way sometime during the next decade if demographic changes here proceed along the current path.

District 50:  

Incumbent: Brian Bilbray (R)

Current District:  Obama 51; McCain 47

Proposed District:  Obama 62; McCain 37

Proposed District Demographics:

2000 Census: 60 white ; 4 black ; 1 native american ; 14 asian ; 17 hispanic ; 3 other

Estimated 2006-2008: 57 white ; 4 black ; 0 native american ; 16 asian ; 20 hispanic ; 3 other

New Democratic district

Includes part of San Diego County – northern part of San Diego, Del Mar, Solana Beach, Encinitas and coastal areas of Carlsbad and Oceanside

District 51:  

Incumbent: Bob Filner (D)

Current District:  Obama 63; McCain 35

Proposed District:  Obama 62; McCain 37

Proposed District Demographics:

2000 Census: 24 white ; 7 black ; 1 native american ; 13 asian ; 53 hispanic ; 3 other

Estimated 2006-2008: 21 white ; 6 black ; 1 native american ; 13 asian ; 57 hispanic ; 2 other

Includes all of Imperial Co., and part of San Diego County – southern part of San Diego, Chula Vista, Imperial Beach, Lemon Grove

This district is very likely to elect a Hispanic representative at some point in the near future

District 52:  

Incumbent: Duncan Hunter (R)

Current District:  Obama 45; McCain 53

Proposed District:  Obama 38; McCain 60

Proposed District Demographics:

2000 Census: 75 white ; 2 black ; 1 native american ; 3 asian ;16 hispanic ; 2 other

Estimated 2006-2008: 71 white ; 2 black ; 1 native american ; 4 asian ; 20 hispanic ; 2 other

Includes part of San Diego County – Poway, Santee, and part of Riverside Co. – Temecula, La Quinta, Indian Wells, Palm Desert, Rancho Mirage

District 53:  

Incumbent: Susan Davis (D)

Current District:  Obama 68; McCain 30

Proposed District:  Obama 62; McCain 37

Proposed District Demographics:

2000 Census: 53 white ; 9 black ; 1 native american ; 7 asian ; 27 hispanic ; 3 other

Estimated 2006-2008: 51 white ; 8 black ; 1 native american ; 8 asian ; 30 hispanic ; 3 other

Includes part of San Diego County – central part of San Diego, Coronado, La Mesa, El Cajon

And that’s it for my plan … Thanks for comments and suggestions.

• AZ-Sen: Looks like the Maverick has finally been broken (as he’s decided that it’s preferable to spend six years chewing his cud while fenced in the GOP pasture, instead of getting sent prematurely to the glue factory). In the face of a potentially serious primary from the right from J.D. Hayworth, John McCain says not only is he no longer a maverick, but he “never considered himself a maverick.” (Except for in all those campaign ads from two years ago?) In response, Hayworth said McCain is trying to “encourage amnesia.”

• CA-Sen, CA-Gov: There’s a new LA Times/USC poll of the two major races in California, with a mixed bag of results for Democrats. Like most pollsters, they find that Republican Meg Whitman has pulled into a small lead over Jerry Brown in the governor’s race, thanks to her nonstop deluge of self-funded advertising; she leads Brown 44-41, while she leads Steve Poizner in the GOP primary 60-20. On the Senate side, Barbara Boxer leads a Generic Republican by a surprisingly wide 48-34. Polling Generic R seems pretty weird, though, considering that there are only two likely opponents for her: Tom Campbell leads Carly Fiorina in the GOP primary 29-25, with Chuck DeVore lagging at 9. One other bit of good news for Dems: by a 46-29 margin, voters prefer to back a candidate who backed health care reform.

• CO-Sen: Michael Bennet is playing it safe, making plans for a petition drive to make sure his name is on the ballot in November. He needs at least 30% at the Democratic state convention to qualify, but his Plan B seems to be an acknowledgment that he may be facing a rough time at the convention too. Remember that he lost at the caucus level to former state House speaker Andrew Romanoff (whose main source of strength seems to be insiders and activists, rather than the broader population).

• IN-Sen: CQ takes a look at the NRSC’s private teeth-gnashing over the possibility that kooky ex-Rep. John Hostettler might beat ex-Sen. Dan Coats in the primary, something that can’t be ruled out in an anti-establishment year like this one. They’d then have to decide whether they want to financially prop up Hostettler, a legendarily poor fundraiser who’s relied on shoestring campaigns and religious right ground troops. Still, a reasonably competent Hostettler ought to be able to make short work of Coats in the GOP primary, given the amount of material he has to work with: for instance, it turns out that Coats, when lobbying for King & Spaulding, lobbied Congress in favor of cap and trade, the same legislation he claims he now opposes.

• NV-Sen: If there’s one reason not to quite count out Harry Reid yet, it’s his ability to bring in the campaign cash. He brought in more than $1.5 million for the quarter, giving him more than $10 million in receipts so far this cycle. Sue Lowden, ostensibly the GOP’s top contender, says she raised about $500K and will match that dollar-for-dollar from her own personal stash. Danny Tarkanian raised $445K last quarter.

• NY-Sen-B (pdf): These numbers are a little stale, but we found there were some more useful numbers buried in that Marist poll from last week where the topline was just the usual rigamarole about the Kirsten Gillibrand vs. George Pataki matchup that’s very unlikely to happen (especially not if Al D’Amato has anything to say about it). They also tested some head-to-heads with the lesser GOPers who are actually in the race: Gillibrand beats Bruce Blakeman 54-25, Joe DioGuardi 54-27, and David Malpass 54-25. They also looked at the GOP primary, finding DioGuardi winning it with 18, followed by Blakeman at 10, Malpass at 9, and non-candidate Dan Senor at 4. A permutation including Pataki finds Pataki at 62, with DioGuardi at 7, Blakeman at 4, and Malpass and Senor at 2. In other news, Gillibrand picked up an endorsement today from one of her biggest skeptics, Assemblyman and Kings Co. Dem chair Vito Lopez. Lopez had been considering backing Harold Ford Jr., way back in those heady days of February.

• WA-Sen: Dino Rossi is still saying he’s “completely undecided” about running for Senate, but will do it if he thinks he has a “50% chance” of winning. Here’s one more bit that might help move his decision along, though: financially, he’d be starting from scratch against Patty Murray, who raked in another $1 million last quarter, bringing her total war chest to $5.9 million.

• AL-Gov: I gather from the comments that SSP is full of mustache aficionados, and this news might prove heartbreaking to them: Ron Sparks shaved off his legendary ‘stache. He says this was a spur-of-the-moment decision at the barber shop (and hopefully not the result of thorough focus grouping?). I just hope Travis Childers doesn’t decide to follow suit.

• NY-Gov: Wealthy businessman Carl Paladino has decided to go ahead with his teabaggish-sounding campaign for Governor, kicking off his bid today in Buffalo. He’ll be running in the GOP primary, although he’d previously made noises about a possible independent run. Unfortunately, his rollout might be overshadowed by other news today… that he had a daughter with his mistress 10 years ago, and kept the child secret from his wife until last year.

• OH-Gov: In response to pressure to release his financials, John Kasich released his 2008 tax returns. Kasich earned $615K from now-kaput Lehman Brothers in 2008, including $183K base and a $432K bonus (but no “golden parachute” as Lehman Brothers collapsed). Oh, by the way, he also earned $265K as a Fox News commentator, $166K in speaking fees, $62K as an associate for Schottenstein Property Group, $45K as an Ohio State Univ. lecturer, $77K for being on the board of directors of two companies, and $122K in interest and dividends. Just your average teabagging Joe Lunchpail.

• HI-01: Charles Djou is trying to get some mileage out of the fact that neither Ed Case nor Colleen Hanabusa lives in HI-01. This kind of thing usually doesn’t matter much even in most other states, and seems to matter even less in Hawaii, though, where the island of Oahu gets split between the two districts and no one seems to care that Mazie Hirono lives in the 1st instead of HI-02.

• CO-04: Rep. Betsy Markey is near the top of most people’s vulnerable Dems lists, especially after her pro-HCR vote, but her cash haul may go along way toward allaying fears. She pulled in $505K, with $355K of that coming between Mar. 21 (the HCR vote) and Mar. 31. Her vote (plus being in Sarah Palin’s sorta-metaphorical crosshairs) seems to have helped, not hurt. Likely GOP opponent Cory Gardner raised only $75K last quarter after the HCR vote.

• ND-AL: One GOPer who is doing well on the fundraising front is state Rep. Rick Berg, who pulled in $483K in the first quarter. $330K of that came in the last 10 days of the quarter, although that seems to have more to do with his winning the state party’s endorsement rather than the HCR vote. Most of the rest of that took the form of $100K from his own pocket. Between this and the downdraft from John Hoeven at the top of the ballot, looks like Rep. Earl Pomeroy’s in for a real race this year.

• PA-06: Doug Pike picked up another labor endorsement, and it’s a big one: the AFL-CIO. They also backed Paul Kanjorski in the 11th, who’s being challenged by Corey O’Brien in the primary.

• RI-01: Here’s one more huge House Democratic fundraising haul, although this isn’t a race that the DCCC has been sweating too hard. Providence mayor David Cicilline pulled in a huge $725K (although some of that was checks re-written away from his mayoral fund to his newly-established House fund). His main Democratic rival, former state party chair William Lynch, raised $230K (including $100K of his own money).

• TX-17: Bill Flores pulled in an endorsement that will help in his GOP primary runoff against Rob Curnock, from perhaps the most unlikable man in the entirety of American politics, ex-Sen. Phil Gramm. In fact, that district may be conservative enough that it might still be a positive in the general.

• LA-LG: Republican SoS Jay Dardenne’s plan for an easy upgrade to the position of Lt. Governor (left vacant by Mitch Landrieu’s move to mayor of New Orleans) ran into a bit of a snag. He’s facing GOP primary opposition now from the state GOP chair, Roger Villere.

• CA-Init: Proposition 15 looks to be the only interesting initiative on the June primary ballot in California, and it lays some important groundwork for countering the flood of corporate money into elections. The Fair Elections Act, as it’s called, is a pilot program for public financing of state races; if passed, it’ll publicly fund the 2014 and 2018 Secretary of State races, which, if successful, could lead to a broader system.

• Fundraising: There are a number of other fundraising roundups today, courtesy of National Journal’s Reid Wilson and also the crew at TPM. Other highlights include Tom Campbell, Pat Toomey, Bob Dold!, Colleen Hanabusa, Bruce O’Donoghue, and various OR-Gov contestants.

• Teabaggers: Ed Kilgore continues his hot streak of dismantling the myth of the teabaggers, pointing to today’s Gallup/USA Today poll as more evidence that they’re nothing more than louder, angrier Republicans (who’d like access to a time machine). Only 7% say they’re Democrats, and while many say they’re independents, all evidence suggests they’re not from the center but those indies who think the GOP is too establishment, too liberal, or just too unsalvageable.

• RNC: You might remember several weeks ago the RNC lost a case in the D.C. District Court, squelching their desires for unlimited “soft money” contributions, which they felt they should be able to do in the wake of Citizens United. The RNC has decided to go ahead and appeal the case to the Supreme Court, although it doesn’t seem likely it’ll be decided in time for this year’s general election. (If you’re wondering why the case is bypassing the DC Circuit, McCain-Feingold allows challenges to it to leapfrog directly from the trial level to SCOTUS.)

• Census: Here’s an interesting tidbit: despite her early anti-Census fearmongering, Michele Bachmann’s district is actually well outpacing much of the nation on Census form return rates. Counties in her district have had an especially high return rate, ranging from 68-71% (compared with the current national average of 50%). Perhaps Republicans have decided it’s better in the long-term to, y’know, get conservative parts of the country to get accurately represented, rather than to try to appeal to the black-helicopters fringes, if Karl Rove cutting an ad urging Census participation is any indication.

• O2B: Finally, over at the Great Orange Satan, there’s an open call for nominations for the Orange to Blue program. Stop by and suggest some names of candidates who should get the netroots’ financial help this year.