Month: June 2010

The following is my latest attempt to draw new district lines for Maryland.  Lately, I have thought about this and have tried to find a way to reconcile my desire for more Democrats with the idea that districts should nevertheless adhere to some form of geographic “coherence”.  The goal of this diary is therefore to create cleaner lines for both Congressional and Legislative Districts in Maryland, while at the same time, increasing the number of Democratic representatives.

I am also working on yet another plan for California, using the same goals as for Maryland above.  Due to work and family responsibilities, it may be a while though before it’s ready … so for now, here’s my home state Maryland:

Congressional Districts

I have previously worked with the idea of eight Democratic seats for Maryland:

http://www.swingstateproject.c…

and …  http://www.swingstateproject.c…

Although, you can indeed create plans for the state where each of the eight districts is at least 58-59% Obama (while preserving the two black-majority districts), the resulting maps seem just way too convoluted to me in retrospect …

In my new plan here, I create seven solid Democratic districts (60% or more Obama each) while trying to preserve relatively neat lines.  I tried to break up as few counties as possible, and, as you can see, the resulting lines certainly look cleaner than the current map.  Under the current map, there are 40 “county-fragments” in the Maryland congressional map (for example, Anne Arundel Co. has 4 “county-fragments”: parts of Districts 1, 2, 3 and 5), while under the proposed plan here that number declines to 36 “county-fragments.”  More importantly, the new districts overall look a lot less gerrymandered and a lot more compact than the current map.

I also tried to ensure that MD-7 is at least 55% black (not just 50%+) to ensure continued African-American representation.  MD-4, on the other hand, is made to be only 50%+ black; that district is much more diverse (only 23% white under the new lines, compared to 39% for the new MD-7), and more Democratic (85% Obama under the new lines, compared to 72% Obama for the new MD-7), so 50%+ black is really all that’s needed for MD-4.

For the two most “high-profile” Maryland Congressmen, Hoyer and Van Hollen, I drew the districts to be 65% Obama, while for Ruppersberger and Sarbanes, they will be 61% Obama (this is still higher than the current Obama percentages for both MD-2 and MD-3).  I also have a hunch that Hoyer may like his new district more than his current one; the new district is just as Democratic as the current one, but the black percentage goes down from 34% to 29% thereby lessening a serious Democratic primary challenge to Hoyer in the future.

I tried to ensure that at least 50% of each new district’s population is made up out of current constituents in that district.  Indeed, in 4 of the 8 districts (MD-2, MD-5, MD-6 and MD-8) at least 68% of the new population is the same as in the current district.  In MD-1 and MD-4, around 60% are transferred.  In MD-3, Sarbanes gets to keep 55% of his constituents. In MD-7 Cummings gets to keep a bit over 50% of his constituents, although this percentage does not include large swaths of the city that are African-American, but which are part of MD-2 under the current lines (all in all, the lines in Baltimore City looks very compact compared to the current plan).

The new MD-1 includes all of the Eastern Shore, but the Democratic percentage still shoots up to 60% Obama, with the addition of hyper-Democratic areas on the western shore.  MD-6 preserves the three Western Maryland Counties (though Bartlett’s home area in Frederick is no longer in the district), and becomes a 63% McCain district.

The plan preserves the hometowns of each of Maryland’s seven Democratic incumbents in their respective districts.  The population deviation for my map ranges from +/- 224 to 859 persons per district.

District 1

60% Obama, 38% McCain (currently 40% Obama, 58% McCain)

60% white, 33% black

All of Eastern Shore; southern part of Anne Arundel Co. including part of Annapolis; central and eastern parts of Prince George’s Co. including Upper Marlboro, Largo/Kettering, Mitchellville, Lanham/Seabrook, New Carrollton, Glenarden, Landover Hills and part of Bowie.

The Democratic percentage here surges under this remap.  At one moment, I looked at the new district and thought “Michael Steele”.  However, the district is 60% Obama, and as demonstrated by Davis v. Sparks in the recent Alabama Governor’s primary, African-Americans vote based on the issues and not race.  (Btw, Steele only managed to get 15-17% of the black vote in Maryland in 2006 — and not 25% as some exit polls indicated — and his “reputation” with black and Democratic voters has since then deteriorated; I honestly think he’d be lucky if he got 10% of the Maryland black vote these days.)  And besides, in a Kratovil vs. Steele matchup (if Kratovil survives 2010), Kratovil would still have the home-turf advantage of representing the Shore (59% of the district). So, bottom line, I’m not too worried about Steele.

District 2

61% Obama, 37% McCain (currently 60% Obama, 38% McCain)

64% white, 26% black

Parts of Baltimore City; part of Baltimore Co. including Cockeysville, Timonium/Lutherville, Carney, Rosedale, Dundalk, Essex, Middle River, Catonsville, Randallstown, Reisterstown, Owings Mills; southern part of Harford Co. including Edgewood, Joppatowne, Aberdeen and Havre de Grace.  

The new district is now confined to only three counties, as the Anne Arundel Co. part is taken out, and the lines look a lot cleaner.  Many black precincts in Baltimore City are taken out and attached to the new MD-7, but to compensate, progressive white areas (Charles Village, for ex.) in the city are added, as well as some very Democratic areas in the western part of Baltimore County — the end result is that the Democratic percentage actually goes up slightly.  69% of the new district’s residents are current Ruppersberger constituents.

District 3

61% Obama, 37% McCain (currently 59% Obama, 39% McCain)

65% white, 21% black, 7% asian, 5% hispanic

All of Howard Co.; part of Baltimore City.; part of Baltimore Co. including Towson, Pikesville, Woodlawn/Lochearn, Arbutus and Halethorpe; part of Anne Arundel Co. including Glen Burnie, Brooklyn Park, Linthicum, Severn, Fort Meade, Odenton and Crofton.  

The new district is a lot more compact than the current one, and the Democratic percentage goes up a few points.

District 4

85% Obama, 14% McCain (currently 85% Obama, 14% McCain)

50%+ black, 23% white, 17% hispanic, 8% asian

Parts of inner Prince George’s Co. including Fort Washington, Oxon Hill, Forest Heights, Temple Hills, District Heights, Forestville, Suitland, Seat Pleasant, Capitol Heights, Cheverly, Brentwood, Mount Rainier, Hyattsville/Chillum, Adelphi, Langley Park, parts of central and eastern Montgomery Co. (including the greater Silver Spring area, Derwood and Washington Grove).  

The lines are changed somewhat, but Donna Edwards still gets to keep 61% of her current constituents and the hyper-Democratic nature of the district does not change at all (this is my home district, btw !).

District 5

65% Obama, 34% McCain (currently 65% Obama, 33% McCain)

55% white, 29% black, 8% hispanic, 5% asian

All of Southern Maryland (Calvert, St. Mary’s and Charles Counties); parts of Prince George’s Co. including Bladensburg, Riverdale, University Park, College Park, Berwyn Heights, Greenbelt, Beltsville, Laurel and part of Bowie; part of northern Montgomery Co.  

Hoyer gets to keep 68% of his current constituents.  Like I already mentioned, Hoyer may like this district more than his current one because of the decreased likelihood of a Democratic primary challenge — the current MD-5 is 34% black while the new one is 29% black (blacks as a percentage of the Democratic primary vote probably approach 50% under the current lines).

District 6

35% Obama, 63% McCain (currently 40% Obama, 58% McCain)

90% white, 5% black

All of Western Maryland (Garrett, Allegany and Washington Counties); all of Carroll Co.; northern part of Baltimore Co.; central and northern parts of Harford Co. including Bel Air area; northernmost sliver of Frederick Co. around Emmitsburg.

District 7

72% Obama, 27% McCain (currently 79% Obama, 20% McCain)

55% black, 39% white

Most of Baltimore City, part of Anne Arundel Co. including Pasadena, Severna Park, Arnold, Millersville, Davidsonville and the Annapolis area.

The new MD-7 combines the most Democratic and African-American parts of Baltimore City with some of the most Republican parts of Anne Arundel County.  Blacks comprise 55% of the electorate here, but likely a much higher percentage (about 70-75%) of the Democratic primary electorate.

District 8

65% Obama, 34% McCain (currently 74% Obama, 25% McCain)

65% white, 12% hispanic, 11% asian, 10% black

Parts of central and southern Montgomery Co. including Rockville, Gaithersburg, Wheaton, Takoma Park, Chevy Chase, Kensington, Bethesda and Potomac; most of Frederick Co.  

Van Hollen gets to keep 69% of his current constituents.  The Democratic percentage declines from 74% Obama to 65% Obama, but Van Hollen or any other competent Democrat should win easily here.  If Connie Morella ran under these lines in 2002, she might have won, but a lot has changed over the last eight years in terms of political preferences and voting patterns in this area.

Legislative Districts

Now, on to the Legislative Districts map.

Each legislative district in Maryland elects one Senator and three Delegates.  In most districts, the three Delegates are elected at large from the whole district, while in some areas the districts are divided into sub-districts (generally in more sparsely populated areas of the state, or when a sub-district is created to provide a better opportunity for minority population representation).  The sub-districts can be of two types: 1) three one-Delegate sub-districts — like District 1 in the plan below, or 2.) one two-Delegate sub-district combined with one one-Delegate sub-district — like District 11 in the plan below.

A while back, I took a whack at this:

http://www.swingstateproject.c…

However, I still feel that the lines can be more refined.  My goal here was to create more Democratic seats, while at the same time making the lines cleaner.  Under the current map, there are 85 “county-fragments” in the Maryland legislative map (for example, Anne Arundel Co. has 6 “county-fragments”: Districts 30, 31, 32, 33-A, 33-B, and part of District 21), while under the proposed plan here that number declines to 73 “county-fragments.”

The population deviation for my map ranges from +/- 1,900 persons per district.  Sorry if some of the information here is a rehash from my earlier diary on redrawing Maryland’s legislative lines, but there are also some significant changes here from that earlier attempt.

The bottom line for this plan is that two Democratic Senators and six Democratic Delegates (in Districts 9 and 31) are likely to be added to the Maryland Legislature under the new lines, while an additional two Democratic Senators and six Democratic Delegates (in various districts — discussed below) may possibly be added (those numbers factor in the possible loss of several Democratic Delegates in District 34).  Also, up to eighteen current Democratic representatives in marginal seats are given stronger Democratic districts.

So, all in all, a potential gain of sixteen Democratic representatives for the next decade, as well as eighteen current Democrats made stronger.

Also, up to six  black representatives and three Hispanic representatives may be added to the state’s delegation under the plan.  Overall, eight new minority-majority districts are created (even though a number of those in Montgomery Co. have no single dominant ethnic/racial minority group).

District 1 – Western Maryland

New district: 93% white; 33% Obama (current district 32% Obama)

The only real change here is to divide into sub-districts a little differently from the current map:

1A – Garrett County, part of Allegany; 98% white; 28% Obama (current district 27% Obama)

1B – Frostburg and Cumberland; 89% white; 7% black; 40% Obama (current district 34% Obama)

1C – parts of Allegany and Washington Counties; 93% white; 31% Obama (current district 36% Obama)

I am not sure why the sub-districts are currently drawn as they are.  This re-drawing should shore up the one Democratic representative in this whole district, Kevin Kelly of 1B; his redrawn district will now include most of Cumberland and will be about 6 percentage points more Democratic than before.

District 2 – Washington County

New district: 83% white; 12% black; 45% Obama (Obama percentage is same as in current district)

No major changes here except to reconfigure the sub-districts.  Instead of three sub-districts, the new plan has only two:

2A – Hagerstown; 79% white; 13% black; one Delegate; 57% Obama

2B – more rural remainder of District 2; 84% white; 11% black (about 45% of the black population in this district is in the state prison located here); two Delegates; 40% Obama

District 3 – City of Frederick and southern Frederick County

New district: 71% white; 14% black; 8% hispanic; 5% asian; 56% Obama (current district 54% Obama)

The major change here is to get rid of the sub-districts.  A district that is 56% Obama (and becoming more Democratic as time goes on as more people from outside Frederick Co. stream in) should be able to elect three Democratic Delegates, instead of the current two in 3A (City of Frederick) and the Republican-turned-Independent in 3B (southern Frederick Co.).  Right-wing GOP Senator Alex Mooney may be on the way out in the November election (he won in 2006 with only 52% of the vote, and this district has experienced an influx of less conservative people moving in since then); the increase in the Democratic percentage (from 54% to 56% Obama) should help also once the new lines are in place in 2012.

Bottom line for District 3: Possible addition of Democratic Senator (if the incumbent survives 2010) and one Democratic Delegate.



District 4 – Frederick County, parts of Washington and Carroll Counties

New district: 91% white; 38% Obama (current district 37% Obama)

The sub-districts are eliminated and the new District 4 is now confined mostly to Frederick County (previously about one-third of the district was in Carroll Co.)   The only areas outside the county (necessary to preserve equal population of the district) will be Smithsburg in Washington Co. and Mt. Airy which straddles the Carroll Co./Frederick Co. line.  The GOP is expected to dominate here.

District 5 – Carroll County

New district: 92% white; 32% Obama (current district 33% Obama)

Like with District 4, the sub-districts are eliminated and the district will now be completely confined to Carroll County, instead of stretching out into northern Baltimore County.  GOP stronghold.

District 6 – Dundalk, Sparrows Point, parts of eastern Baltimore City

New district: 68% white; 27% black; 55% Obama (current district 45% Obama)

This area is a traditional blue-collar Democratic stronghold that has shifted to the right over the decades (your quintessential Reagan Democrat country).  The current District 6 is the only district in the state of Maryland (out of 47) where John Kerry performed better than Obama.  Democrats still win here locally, but in order to make the district safer for the future, the Democratic percentage is increased by 10 percentage points.  This is done in tandem with combining parts of eastern Baltimore City with the Baltimore County portion of the district.  

It should be noted that the break-down here is almost exactly such that the Baltimore City portion could be made into a sub-district electing one Delegate (the new Delegate would likely be an African-American Democrat, as that part is 61% black and voted 90% for Obama) while the Baltimore Co. part could be a two-Delegate sub-district.  However, such a move might be politically risky.  The Baltimore Co. part voted only 41% Obama and could realistically elect two Republicans at some point in the future if made into a sub-district.  Therefore, I am keeping the new District 6 without sub-districts.

District 7 – northern Baltimore County

New district: 88% white; 5% black; 36% Obama (current district 39% Obama)

The new district combines most current areas of the district with territory in northern-most Baltimore Co. which was previously part of District 5.  The new district will now be confined entirely within Baltimore Co. (it currently stretches into Harford) and it becomes even more Republican than the current form.

District 8 – Parkville, Overlea, Rosedale, White Marsh

New district: 71% white; 19% black; 5% asian; 52% Obama (current district 48% Obama)

The current district is represented by a Democratic Senator, two Democratic Delegates and one Republican Delegate.  The Republican won by a smidge last time, and the increase in the Democratic percentage (48% Obama to 52% Obama) should help here.

Bottom line for District 8: Possible addition of one Democratic Delegate, and the existing Democratic representatives are made stronger.

District 9 – Howard County (Ellicott City, most of Columbia)

New district: 62% white; 16% black; 14% Asian; 5% hispanic; 61% Obama (current district 43% Obama)

The new District 9 is a really good example of how you can make a district more compact, yet more Democratic at the same time.  The current district stretches across Howard and Carroll Counties and is quite Republican.  The new district is confined entirely to Howard Co. and is a lot more Democratic.

Bottom line for District 9: Very probable addition of Democratic Senator and three Democratic Delegates (the current Senator is Allan Kittleman, minority (GOP) leader).

District 10 – parts of Baltimore Co. (Milford Mill, Lochearn, Randallstown) and Carroll Co. (Eldersburg)

New district: 52% black; 41% white; 66% Obama (current district 87% Obama)

The new district stretches along the Liberty Road corridor from just outside the Baltimore City line into Carroll County.  The district is assured of continuing to elect an all African-American Democratic delegation as approximately 70-75% of the Democratic primary vote here is black, and the district overall is about two-thirds Democratic.

District 11 – northwestern Baltimore County

New district: 54% white; 37% black; 70% Obama (current district 66% Obama)

Remains solidly Democratic.  I have divided the new district into two sub-districts:

11A – one-Delegate district; area between Pikesville, Reisterstown and Mays Chapel; 80% white; 11% black; 5% asian; 55% Obama

11B – two-Delegate district; parts of Randallstown, Reisterstown and Owings Mills; 50%+ black; 40% white; 80% Obama

The creation of sub-district 11B will likely add two African-American legislators to the state’s delegation.  In the meantime, because of the way the lines are drawn, one or two of the current three Delegates here could run in the new District 42 which now will include a substantial part of Pikesville.  The 55% Obama percentage in 11A should not be a concern, as this is a safe Democratic district, particularly on the local level.  (John Kerry actually did better than Obama in several precincts of the new 11A, so Obama’s 55% percentage is not some sort of Democratic “ceiling” for the area, as it would be in other districts.)

Bottom line for District 11: Probable addition of two African-American Delegates.



District 12 – southwestern Baltimore County (Arbutus, Halethorpe, Catonsville, Woodlawn); part of eastern Howard County

New district: 65% white; 24% black; 6% asian; 58% Obama (same as current district)

The new district covers much of the same area as the current configuration.  The major difference is that a progressive part of Columbia (what’s now sub-district 12B) is taken out.  To compensate, most of majority black Woodlawn is added and the district’s partisan make-up remains unchanged.

District 13 – Howard County (Savage, North Laurel, part of Columbia)

New district: 63% white; 19% black; 10% asian; 5% hispanic; 62% Obama (current district 65% Obama)

This district stays quite similar to the current configuration.  District 13 was represented in the state Senate by a Republican, Sandy Schrader, prior to the 2006 election (even when the three Delegates were all Democrats).  Schrader won in 2002 with 51% of the vote, but received only 44% in her re-election attempt in 2006. This district has definitely moved in the Democratic direction over the years, and the slight decline in Democratic performance here under the proposed lines (from 65% Obama to 62% Obama) will still leave this a safe Democratic seat.

Districts 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20 and 39 – Montgomery County

We next move to Montgomery County, where the district lines change relatively little under my map. The all-Democratic delegation here (8 Senators and 24 Delegates) is something I am very proud of (I live in Silver Spring).  I attempted to create sub-districts here which could be designed to elect minority representatives, but my efforts were futile, as the minority population is very diverse and scattered throughout the county.  Nevertheless, five of my new districts here become “minority-majority” (four are about 49% white, while District 14 is 49.6% white); District 20 is already “minority-majority”, so under this plan 6 out of 8 Montgomery Co. districts will be “minority-majority”.  This is all probably a moot issue in Montgomery, as even under the current lines, the county already has a very multi-ethnic delegation, with black, Hispanic, and Asian (east Asian, south Asian, as well as Middle Eastern-origin) representatives … and several openly gay representatives also.

New District 14: Burtonsville, Damascus, White Oak

50% white; 27% black; 13% asian; 9% hispanic; 67% Obama (current district 65% Obama)

New District 15: Potomac, Poolesville, Clarksburg

67% white; 18% asian; 7% hispanic; 7% black; 66% Obama (current district 65% Obama)

New District 16: Bethesda, Chevy Chase, Garrett Park

77% white; 10% asian; 8% hispanic; 73% Obama (current district 74% Obama)

New District 17: Rockville, Gaithersburg

49% white; 20% hispanic; 17% asian; 12% black; 71% Obama (Obama percentage is same as in current district)

New District 18: Wheaton, Derwood, Kensington, part of Silver Spring

49% white; 21% hispanic; 17% black; 11% asian; 73% Obama (current district 76% Obama)

New District 19: Aspen Hill, Leisure World, Olney, Brookeville

49% white; 19% black; 18% hispanic; 12% asian; 70% Obama (current district 68% Obama)

New District 20: Silver Spring, Takoma Park

41% white; 24% black; 22% hispanic; 11% asian; 81% Obama (current district 85% Obama)

New District 39: Germantown, Montgomery Village

49% white; 19% black; 15% asian; 15% hispanic; 71% Obama (Obama percentage is same as in current district)

The lines in Prince George’s County are reconfigured somewhat to provide more opportunities for African-American and Hispanic representatives to be elected there:

District 21 – northern Prince George’s County (Laurel, Greenbelt, Berwyn Heights, Glenarden)

New district: 53% black; 28% white; 9% hispanic; 7% asian; 84% Obama (current district 75% Obama)

The new district is now completely contained within PG Co.  I just don’t think that it makes sense to have a district stretch from College Park all the way to Odenton in Anne Arundel County (as does the current District 21).  The new district becomes majority black, and is likely to elect several African-American representatives in the future.

District 22 – northern Prince George’s County (College Park, Beltsville, New Carrollton, Landover Hills, Cheverly, Brentwood, Mount Rainier)

New district: 53% black; 23% white; 16% hispanic; 6% asian; 85% Obama (Obama percentage is same as in current district)

Senator Paul Pinsky may have no trouble getting re-elected here, but if he retires, this district is likely to elect an African-American Senator.  The new district becomes majority black, and is likely to elect several more African-American representatives in the future (currently, two of the three Delegates here are white).

District 23 – parts of Prince George’s Co. (Seat Pleasant, Capitol Heights, Upper Marlboro) and Anne Arundel Co. (Crofton, southern part of county)

New district: 51% black; 44% white; 69% Obama (current district 81% Obama)

Since this re-map made District 21 confined to PG Co., the new District 23 has to play the opposite role and reach outside PG, into Anne Arundel County.  The new district becomes majority black, and most registered Democrats here are black (as a good part of the white population in Anne Arundel is Republican).  Therefore, the district is likely to add African-Americans to its legislative delegation in the future.

Districts 24, 25, 26 – eastern, central and southern Prince George’s Co.

New District 24: Bowie; Mitchellville; Largo/Kettering; 65% black; 26% white; 85% Obama (current district 98% Obama)

New District 25: District Heights, Forestville, Suitland; 82% black; 11% white; 95% Obama (current district 96% Obama)

New District 26: Oxon Hill, Temple Hills, Fort Washington; 79% black; 11% white; 5% asian; 93% Obama (current district 94% Obama)

District 27 – Calvert County and southern Prince George’s Co.

New district: 65% white; 28% black; 61% Obama (current district 71% Obama)

The new district is more in line with using county boundaries as district boundaries than the current District 27, now taking in all of Calvert County (Calvert has experienced some of the highest population growth in the state, and will now account for about two-thirds of the new district).  The rest of the new district will be a Prince George’s Co.-based minority-majority sub-district.  Thus, the major change here is that sub-district 27A will now have one Delegate, instead of two, and 27B will have two instead of one.  

Senate Leader Mike Miller should be quite happy with the new lines, as his seat becomes more Calvert-based (his home) and it is less likely that he will be challenged in the Democratic primary by an African-American in the future.

27A – one Delegate; southern Prince George’s County and several precincts in Calvert to preserve equal population; 55% black; 38% white; 76% Obama (current sub-district is 81% Obama)

27B – two Delegates; most of Calvert Co.; 80% white; 14% black; 49% Obama (current sub-district is 47% Obama)

Even though sub-district 27B voted 49% Obama and 50% McCain, it should be noted that the current Delegate, Democrat Sue Kullen, won with 57% of the vote in 2006. Republican Anthony O’Donnell (the House minority leader from southern Calvert, currently in sub-district 29C) could also run here, but even if he were to win, his gain here would be effectively offset by his disappearance from District 29.

District 28 – Charles County

New district: 53% white; 38% black; 63% Obama (same as in current district)

The lines here change only insofar that several precincts in the eastern part of the county are taken out to preserve equal population.

District 29 – St. Mary’s County, part of Charles Co.

New district: 73% white; 20% black; 47% Obama (current district 44% Obama)

The new district is more compact than the current one.  The sub-districts are eliminated, and I’m hopefully optimistic that all three Delegates will be Democrats despite the 47% Obama – 51% McCain breakdown of the new district (currently both Delegates in 29A and 29B, which are areas almost entirely in St. Mary’s County, are Democrats elected with 65 and 64 percent of the vote; Anthony O’Donnell (GOP) won 29C — which straddles both St. Mary’s and Calvert Counties — with 60% but his sub-district becomes split in half between the new District 27 and the new District 29.)

District 30 – greater Annapolis area in Anne Arundel Co.

New district: 74% white; 16% black; 6% hispanic; 54% Obama (current district 52% Obama)

The lines here are tweaked somewhat in order to make the district a bit more Democratic. The current district is represented by a Democratic Senator and two out of three Delegates are also Democrats (including House Speaker Michael Busch).  The lone Republican, Delegate Ron George, won by 53 votes last time (or one-tenth of a percentage point), and so the change from 52% Obama to 54% Obama may be helpful in the future — assuming George makes it through 2010 under the current lines, which is not guaranteed.

Bottom line for District 30: Possible addition of one Democratic Delegate (if the sole Republican is not defeated by the time the new lines come into being).



District 31 – parts of Anne Arundel Co. (Glen Burnie, Brooklyn Park, Severn)

New district: 67% white; 21% black; 5% hispanic; 5% asian; 53% Obama (current district 40% Obama)

The political composition of this Anne Arundel district changes significantly under this re-map.  Most of the Glen Burnie parts currently in District 32 are added — so that Glen Burnie will now be basically all in one district instead of being split in half between Districts 31 and 32 — while most of hyper-Republican Pasadena is detached.  The result is a district that goes from 40% Obama to 53% Obama.  

It is quite likely that all four Republican representatives will disappear under the new lines, and will be replaced by four Democrats.  The GOP Senator here, Bob Jones University graduate Bryan Simonaire, won last time with only 51% of the vote, and he lives in Pasadena, now outside the district.  The three GOP Delegates all won by relatively small margins also, and two of the three also live in Pasadena.  

The one Delegate whose home remains in the new 31st is Don Dwyer, a rabidly right-wing homophobe who makes Simonaire appear like a moderate in comparison (Dwyer is so right-wing that he has effectively taken himself out of the Republican caucus, as they are apparently not conservative enough for him, though he remains a Republican.)  Dwyer won re-election by 25 votes last time (even the current 58% McCain district had barely the stomach for him), and it’s far from assured that he will win in 2010.  If he does make it this coming November, the new lines and district composition will pose a very formidable obstacle for him in 2014.  

This area is traditionally quite Democratic, but parts contain many conservative Reagan Democrats.  In that light, the 53% Obama of the proposed District 31 should not be seen as a Democratic ceiling for the district. (Disclosure: I grew up in Brooklyn Park, and my mom still lives there, hence this long entry re. District 31 … that, and the fact that the odious Don Dwyer is still a representative there.)

Bottom line for District 31: Probable addition of Democratic Senator and three Democratic Delegates.  Several of the current District 32 Democratic representatives live in what under this remap becomes part of District 31, so they can run here, while new Democrats can be elected in the new 32nd.

District 32 – parts of Anne Arundel Co. (Linthicum, Ferndale, Odenton, Fort Meade, Maryland City), part of  Howard Co. (Elkridge)

New district: 64% white; 22% black; 6% hispanic; 6% asian; 54% Obama (Obama percentage is same as in current district)

Like the current incarnation, the new district encompasses much of northwestern Anne Arundel County.  The district also crosses over into a part of Howard County, in order to maintain equal population.  



District 33 – parts of Anne Arundel Co. (Pasadena/Lake Shore, Severna Park, Millersville, Gambrills, Davidsonville)

New district: 88% white; 5% black; 36% Obama (current district 43% Obama)

The new District 33 combines the most Republican communities of Anne Arundel County into one district.  The two current sub-districts are eliminated.  GOP representatives from both the current 33rd and the current 31st are all put together into this district.

District 34 – parts of Harford and Cecil Counties

New district: 88% white; 7% black; 39% Obama (current district 48% Obama)

The new district becomes considerably less Democratic.  This is the only such occurrence under this plan where existing Democrats may be endangered because of the remap, but it is the price to pay for relatively high growth in this part of the state.  There’s not much that can be done geographically to shore up Democrats here, as the district is “tucked” into a corner of the state; nevertheless, I did manage to create a new Democratic-leaning District 46 — discussed later — out of the southern portion of the current District 34; the downside is that what remains in District 34 is less Democratic.  The current political balance here is a GOP Senator, and three Democratic Delegates.  I have redrawn the sub-districts so that they correspond to county lines (a two-delegate sub-district for Cecil, and a one-delegate sub-district for Harford):

34A – one-Delegate district; Harford Co.; 86% white; 8% black; 37% Obama

34B – two-Delegate district; Cecil Co.; 89% white; 6% black; 41% Obama

District 35 – Harford County, including Bel Air area

New district: 92% white; 31% Obama (same as in current district)

Remains somewhat similar to the current district which is a GOP stronghold; the sub-districts are eliminated.

District 36 – Upper Eastern Shore (all of Kent, Queen Anne’s and Caroline Counties and part of Cecil Co.)

New district: 85% white; 10% black; 39% Obama (current district 41% Obama)

District 37 – Lower Eastern Shore (all of Talbot, Dorchester and Somerset Counties and part of Wicomico Co.)

New District: 64% white; 31% black; 48% Obama (current district 46% Obama)

Currently, three out of four representatives here are Republicans.  Under the new lines, the district becomes 48% Obama – 51% McCain.

37A – one Delegate; Salisbury and Princess Anne areas; 54% black; 40% white; 59% Obama; the sub-district remains black-majority, but the lines look cleaner than under the current map; the sub-district should continue to elect an African-American Democrat.

37B – two Delegates; all of Talbot and Dorchester, and part of Somerset; 75% white; 20% black; 43% Obama.

District 38 – Lower Eastern Shore (all of Worcester Co., and part of Wicomico Co.)

New District: 81% white; 14% black; 43% Obama (current district 41% Obama)

The new 38th is quite similar to the current district (but without the sub-districts).  The district here currently elects a GOP Senator and GOP Delegate in sub-district 38A, while 38B elects two Democrats, even though that area is even more Republican than 38A.  The two Democrats include one legislator from Salisbury and a former mayor of Ocean City, so personal popularity likely plays a part, especially in the case of the latter.  The remap eliminates the sub-districts, while the Democratic percentage goes up a bit overall, but the political consequences remain anyone’s guess.

District 39 – see earlier entry under Districts 14, 15, etc. (Montgomery County)

Districts 40, 41, 43, 44, 45 – Baltimore City

Due to stagnant population growth, Baltimore City has to lose one of its current districts, and the 46th is the only logical candidate.  (Also, as already discussed, the eastern-most part of the city will be combined with adjoining parts of Baltimore County into a new 6th District.)  The other five districts are reconfigured but still keep the basic shape and identity of their current incarnations (I intentionally keep each district at 63-64% African-American):

New District 40: west-central Baltimore

64% black; 29% white; 90% Obama (current district 93% Obama)

New District 41: northwest Baltimore

63% black; 33% white; 86% Obama (current district 87% Obama)

New District 43: northeast Baltimore

63% black; 31% white; 89% Obama (current district 91% Obama)

New District 44: southwest and south Baltimore

63% black; 33% white; 86% Obama (current district 92% Obama)

New District 45: east-central Baltimore

63% black; 28% white; 84% Obama (current district 90% Obama)

District 42 – Towson, Timonium, Cockeysville, Pikesville, Carney

New District: 77% white; 11% black; 7% asian; 54% Obama (current district 53% Obama)

The current district is represented in the Senate by a Democrat.  However, two out of three Delegates are Republicans.  The trick in this part of central Baltimore Co. was to make District 8 somewhat more Democratic, without making District 42 less Democratic.  Therefore, the new District 42 was expanded into more Democratic areas around Pikesville.  Both Republican delegates won here by small margins last time, and the 54% Obama percentage should not necessarily be seen as a Democratic ceiling (in a couple of precincts in Pikesville Kerry actually performed better than Obama), so this district may provide good Democratic pick-up opportunities in the future.

District 46 – parts of Baltimore Co. (Middle River, part of Essex) and southern part of Harford Co. (Edgewood, Joppatowne, Aberdeen, Havre de Grace)

New District: 64% white; 27% black; 54% Obama

This district is a newly-created one to account for population growth in the area (and it replaces the old 46th which was based in Baltimore City).  It was initially surprising to me that you could create a new, compact district here that is at the same time quite Democratic.  I was afraid that the new district would have to be a GOP stronghold, thus causing an automatic loss of a Democratic Senator and three Democratic Delegates.  But there is apparently a robust Democratic presence in this area. Interestingly, the Harford Co. part of the district voted 56% Obama – 42% McCain, while the Baltimore Co. part split 49% – 49%.

District 47 – parts of northern Prince George’s County (Hyattsville/Chillum, Adelphi, Langley Park, Riverdale, Edmonston, Bladensburg, University Park)

New District: 47% hispanic; 36% black, 11% white; 87% Obama (current district 92% Obama)

I tried to create a Hispanic-majority district here, but that is basically not possible unless you cross county lines to encompass a couple precincts in Montgomery Co. (you can thus create a 51% Hispanic district in Maryland).  Since my goal was to split as few counties as possible, I instead created an all-Prince George’s Co. seat that has a  47% Hispanic plurality and may become hispanic-majority over the next decade.  The current District 47 has already elected a Delegate who is Hispanic, and this new district may help to increase Hispanic representation (Hispanics seem to be largely under-represented in the state legislature).

• AR-Sen: As predicted, labor doesn’t look like it’s going to kiss and make up with Blanche Lincoln. The SEIU says it won’t back Lincoln in November, if nothing else, seeing as how they have races with better odds elsewhere that they need to deal with. PPP’s Tom Jensen reinforces that point in a piece entitled “Write Off Lincoln,” listing a handful of total sleeper races where the polls have been better for Dems than Arkansas.

• CT-Sen: Campaigns don’t usually release internal polls showing them down by 13 points, but when all the public pollsters are showing you down by more than 20 after your blockbuster move failed and it’s a last ditch effort to get contributors to not write you off, I suppose it makes sense. A Moore Information poll finds Linda McMahon trailing Richard Blumethal “only” 51-38.

• IL-Sen: Glad to see that the mainstream environmental groups are starting to see the big picture of how Washington works instead of reflexively endorsing moderate Republicans who occasionally pantomime throwing them a bone (see also Reichert, Dave). The Sierra Club and League of Conservation Voters, who’ve backed Mark Kirk in the past in his House races, will be going with Alexi Giannoulias instead this year.

• NH-Sen: This seemed more like a cry for attention than a well-thought-out campaign pre-announcement when it happened last week. So it’s not surprising to hear that whistleblower/former state Securities chief Mark Connolly, after floating his name last week, has decided against running against Paul Hodes in the Dem Senate primary. (The same link also has a list of filings for New Hampshire’s state Senate… although Blue Hampshire has that data in helpful table form. Most notable: a troubling Dem-held open seat in a R+4 district.)

• SC-Sen: That didn’t take long at all, for the Democrats’ baffling new Senatorial nominee, Alvin Greene, to slide into Scott Lee Cohen territory. With revelations this morning that he’s facing felony obscenity charges, the state party is calling on Greene to drop out of the race. Mother Jones has some more detail on Greene that really plumbs the depths of his sheer unpreparedness for what he’s gotten himself into. I have no idea whether he’s a GOP plant (who got fronted the $10K filing fee to be a speed bump for Vic Rawl and wound up winning instead) or just a naif who accidentally wandered into the corridors of power, “Being There”-style, but either way, it makes for a great story.

• AL-Gov: It’s official; Robert Bentley finished in 2nd place in the GOP gubernatorial primary, earning him a spot in the primary, and, as expected, Tim James will file for a recount. AG Troy King just issued an AG opinion clarifying the whole issue of whether an automatic recount applies here: no, it doesn’t apply to primaries, so James is responsible for the cost of the recount himself. James still plans to do it, though, despite the cost of at least $300K.

• MI-Gov: Republican AG Mike Cox got endorsements from two key GOP power brokers: from the state Chamber of Commerce, and also from Dick and Betsy DeVos. I was a little surprised that the Grand Rapids-based Amway cult leaders didn’t go with their in-house western Michigan U.S. Rep., Pete Hoekstra, but Hoekstra claims not to be surprised, probably suggestive of some interpersonal tension with the DeVos family.

• MN-Gov: Here’s one more place the SEIU won’t get involved: the DFL gubernatorial primary in Minnesota. All three contenders seem to be friendly with labor, so the SEIU didn’t seem to want to play favorites in a field that’s basically a tossup.

• OR-Gov: Now this is odd… while Oregon has a rather New England-influenced politics, there’s no track record of quirky moderate independents running and winning there. Nevertheless, prominent local attorney John DiLorenzo is reporting a $150K loan from himself to his exploratory committee, in apparent preparation for a gubernatorial run.

• SC-Gov: I don’t think the RGA could tip its hand any further than it did last night, all but endorsing Nikki Haley, who still has to get past a runoff against Gresham Barrett, saying “the voters made a clear choice” and “the outcome is certain.” Barrett, for his part, is brushing that off and continuing to fight on.

• VT-Gov: You may remember Anthony Pollina, who ran as a Progressive and then independent in several gubernatorial races, going as far as to finish 2nd in 2008. Good news for Vermont Dems: Pollina isn’t making a third-party bid, or even running for governor at all this year; instead, he’s running for a state Senate seat. Also, it sounds like the local Dems and Progressives are getting smarter about not canceling each other out, as they plan to avail themselves more of “fusion voting” this year. (H/t terje; the whole comment is well worth a read.)

• AR-01: With the ink barely dry on Chad Causey’s victory in the Dem runoff, the Rick Crawford campaign released an internal poll showing them with a lead over Causey. The poll by POS gives the GOP nominee a 40-34 lead. While the district has a strong Dem tradition, Obama’s 54% disapproval in the district gives Crawford an opening.

• IN-03: There’s a tally of 15 different Republicans seeking the GOP nod for the special election to replace the recently-resigned Mark Souder; the local GOP will meet on Saturday to choose somebody. The most prominent name is state Sen. Marlin Stutzman, who recently lost the IN-Sen primary, but the list also includes IN-03 primary loser Bob Thomas, two state Reps., Randy Borror and Wes Culver, and even a local TV anchor, Ryan Elijah.

• IN-09: Biden alert! The fundraiser-in-chief has added Baron Hill to his list of beneficiaries, and will be appearing on his behalf in Jeffersonville on June 28.

• PA-12: For his rematch against now-Rep. Mark Critz, Tim Burns is going to try a different campaign manager. Having lost by 9 in the special after seeming to lose the ground war, he parted ways with former chief Tadd Rupp.

• NRSC: John Cornyn admits that the NRSC’s wide playing field this November isn’t all good news, because their limited resources (currently $17.1 million) will be stretched thin. Somewhere Dino Rossi is thinking “Now he tells me…”

• Polltopia: Maybe the biggest story that people are following today is the quick decision, in the wake of the AR-Sen runoff polls (as well as MA-Sen, PA-12, and the AL-Gov D primary…), by Daily Kos to part ways with hired pollster Research 2000. However, Markos says the decision was more based on 538’s aggregate pollster ratings than any one poll. There’s no word yet on which pollster will be wearing the orange in the future. Mark Blumenthal has more on the decision, including R2K head Del Ali’s response.

A super Tuesday of primaries means a super-sized Primary Roundup the day after!

Arkansas:

• AR-Sen (D): Blanche Lincoln’s 52-48 victory in the runoff over Bill Halter is being spun as a comeback, but she did, y’know, win the primary too, by a similar margin. A series of R2K polls plus the incumbent rule were the main reason most people mentally gave Halter the edge going into the runoff, but in the end, a pretty similar universe of voters showed up the second time, while the D.C. Morrison voters either split evenly or just stayed away. (C)
• AR-01 (D): Chad Causey, the former CoS to retiring Rep. Marion Berry, eked out a 51-49 runoff victory over former state Sen. Tim Wooldridge in a battle of conservadem vs. very-conservadem. Causey’s late endorsement by Bill Clinton may have helped push him over the top. (C)
• AR-02 (D): In another Dem runoff, liberal African-American state Sen. Joyce Elliott won a 54-46 victory over state House speaker Robbie Wills. They went hard negative on each other, meaning a lot of damage control before facing well-financed GOPer Tim Griffin in November. (C)
• AR-03 (R): In the dark-red 3rd, Rogers mayor Steve Womack won the GOP runoff against state Sen. Cecile Bledsoe, 52-48; Womack is almost certain to win in November. Bledsoe was the only Sarah Palin endorsee to lose last night (but then, Fiorina and Branstad were gimmees). (C)

California:

• CA-Gov (R): With only one outlier poll to the contrary, the primary between former eBay CEO Meg Whitman and current Insurance Commissioner Steve Poizner wasn’t expected to be close. Poizner’s attempts to outflank Whitman on the right netted him only a 64-27 defeat; Whitman now goes on to face former Governor and current state Attorney General Jerry Brown. (JMD)
• CA-Sen (R): Yesterday wasn’t a dream for Carly Fiorina, who romped to a victory with 56% of the vote over former San Jose congressman Tom Campbell and Orange County Assemblyman Chuck DeVore. CarlyFornia gets to take on three-term incumbent Barbara Boxer. (JMD)
• CA-Lt. Gov (D): In just one of yesterday’s showings of the Northern California dominance of the California Democratic Party, San Francisco Mayor Gavin Newsom beat LA City Councilwoman Janice Hahn 55-32, winning all but six counties. (JMD)
• CA-Lt. Gov (R): Incumbent Lt. Gov Abel Maldonado, appointed to replace now-Rep. John Garamendi, beat back a conservative challenge from term-limited State Senator Sam Aanestad by a 43-31 margin. Aanestad won the counties in his district and the OC, but not much else. (JMD)
• CA-Att. Gen (D): In this seven-way primary for the Dem nod to replace Jerry Brown who’s running for governor, San Francisco DA Kamala Harris withstood an aerial assault from Facebook Chief “Privacy” Officer Chris Kelly. Harris ended up more than doubling Harris’ vote totals, 33-16. Behind them were East Bay Assemblyman Alberto Torrico at 15%, LA County Assemblyman Ted Lieu, Santa Barbara Assemblyman Pedro Nava, and LA City Attorney Rocky Delgadillo at 10 apiece. All three Assemblyman were term-limited – better luck next time at musical chairs, guys. (JMD)
• CA-Att. Gen (R): Los Angeles County DA Steve Cooley, the lone moderate in the field of three, scores a convincing 47-34-19 victory over his more conservative opponents, Chapman University Law School dean John Eastman and Orange County Assemblyman Tom Harman. This sets up yet another NorCal-SoCal matchup for AG in November, LA County DA Steve Cooley against San Francisco (City and County) DA Kamala Harris. (JMD)
• CA-Sec. of State (R): O, RLY? No, not really. Some insiders were worried that Birther Queen Orly Taitz would inexplicably earn the GOP nod for Secretary of State, but she ended up getting thoroughly pasted by ex-NFLer Damon Dunn 74-26. While Dunn’s busy facing off against incumbent Dem SoS Debra Bowen, Orly can go back to getting thoroughly pasted (and fined) in court for filing frivolous suits. (JMD)
• CA-Init: The good news: Props 16 and 17 — pet projects for the private utilities and insurance companies, respectively — have both failed, both losing 52-48 after leading much of the night. The bad news (well, as far as most blogosphere chatter goes; as a Washingtonian with first-hand experience with the ‘top two’ system, my own feelings are a firm ‘meh’): Prop 14 passed 54-46, meaning California switches to a ‘top two’ primary system. (C)
• CA-02 (R): Longtime Republican incumbent Wally Herger survived an attempted teabagging from retired Air Force Col. Pete Siglich by a 65-35 spread. Siglich criticized Herger for his TARP bailout vote, earmarks, and, going all the way back to 2003, his support for Medicare Part D, but only spent $45,000 on the race. (JL)
• CA-11 (R): Attorney David Harmer, who carpetbagged across the border from the 10th after establishing his GOP bona fides in the special election there, captured the GOP nomination with a middling 36%. The publicity Brad Goehring got over his lib’rul huntin’ remarks seemed to catapult him into 2nd place, ahead of the other two more normal candidates, Tony Amador and Elizabeth Emken. (C)
• CA-19 (R): As in the 11th, the establishment GOPer (here, state Sen. Jeff Denham) was the victor with 36% against a fractured field. Denham, who got the backing of retiring Rep. George Radanovich, beat former Fresno mayor (and Club for Growth guy) Jim Patterson and slimy former CA-11 Rep. Richard Pombo. (C)
• CA-33 (D): Former Assembly Speaker Karen Bass, who’s LA-based 47th AD overlaps quite a bit with CD-33, beat out some minor opposition with 85% of the vote to win the Democratic nomination to succeed outgoing Dem. Diane Watson. Bass faces minor GOP opposition in November and will almost certainly be the next Congresswoman from this D+35 district. (JMD)
• CA-36 (D): Marcy Winograd’s second challenge to Jane Harman was better organized than her first run in 2006, and Jane Harman’s had her share of scandal since then, but the needle barely moved. Harman scored 58.8%, down from 62.5% in 2006, but Harman never looked like she was in any real danger last night. (JMD)
• CA-37 (D): In another case of an incumbent under 70%, scandal-ridden Laura Richardson scored a suprisingly weak 68% against three miscellaneous Democratic opponents in this Long Beach based district. (JMD)
• CA-42 (R): Who (other than Swing State Project, of course) would’ve guessed that out of all the dozens of incumbent House members up for re-election, the night’s second worst performance after Bob Inglis would come from Orange County’s Gary Miller? With problems including war record embellishment, ethical clouds, and a pro-TARP vote, Miller beat Phil Liberatore only 49-37. (C)
• CA-47 (R): Despite the presence of another Vietnamese candidate on the ballot, Garden Grove Assemblyman Van Tran still got a majority of the vote to challenge incumbent Democrat Loretta Sanchez in this majority-Hispanic district that went for Bush in 2004, but also went by 20% for Obama. (JMD)
• CA-50 (D): If Francine Busby takes another run after this one, she’s in serious danger of landing the kiss of death of being called “perennial candidate” in the press. Nevertheless, she won the booby prize of the Democratic nod against GOP Rep. Brian Bilbray over attorney Tracy Emblem with two thirds of the vote. This marks her fourth run for this seat, and her third against Bilbray (counting two races in 2006). It’s not quite Sodrel-esque, but it’s getting close. (JL)

Georgia:

• GA-09 (Special): Tom Graves was hit with some late scuttle in this race to succeed retiring GOPer Nathan Deal who resigned to run for Governor. Despite some weakness in Gainesville (Hall County), the former state Rep. beat out fellow Republican former state Senator Lee Hawkins by a 56-44 margin. The House now stands at 255 D, 178 R and 2 vacancies. (JMD)

Iowa:

• IA-Gov (R): Terry Branstad, to no one’s surprise, won the GOP primary for a fifth (!) term as Governor. The only surprise was the tepid margin; he beat social conservative Bob Vander Plaats 50-41 (with 9 for Rod Roberts). Unfortunately for Chet Culver (who may be ruing not trying some Gray Davis-style manipulation in the GOP primary), a weak Branstad win is still a Branstad win. (C)
• IA-02 (R): Move over Marjorie Margolies-Mezvinsky and M. Myers Mermel, because Mariannette Miller-Meeks is back in town. The ophthalmologist and 2008 nominee against David Loebsack won the GOP primary surprisingly easily (with 51%), considering she was against NRCC pick Rob Gettemy and two former Senate candidates. (C)
• IA-03 (R): The NRCC also hit the Fail jackpot in the 3rd, where their pick, former wrestling coach Jim Gibbons, lost decisively to the better-organized state Sen. Brad Zaun (who won with 42% to Gibbons’ 28%) in a race that had been expected to go to convention to be decided. desmoinesdem has a good diary up detailing the NRCC’s Iowa double-faceplant. (C)

Maine:

• ME-Gov (D): State Senate president Libby Mitchell seems on track to becoming Maine’s first female governor, winning the Democratic primary with 35%; a Bill Clinton endorsement may have helped her stand out from the ho-hum pack. She was followed by former AG Steve Rowe at 23, businesswoman Rosa Scarcelli at 22, and former state Conservation director (and former Avengers star) Patrick McGowan at 20. (C)
• ME-Gov (R): Waterville mayor Paul LePage, the Republican who’d been most closely associated with local Tea Partiers, won the GOP nomination with 38%. He finished ahead of a gaggle of moderates, including businessman Les Otten at 17, state Sen. Peter Mills at 15, ex-Collins CoS Steve Abbott at 13. Will a race between the very liberal Mitchell and very conservative LePage give a legitimate opening to centrist independent Eliot Cutler in November? (C)

New Jersey:

• NJ-03 (R): Former Eagles offensive lineman and establishment favorite Jon Runyan dispatched Tabernacle Township Committeeman and insurgent Justin Murphy by a 60-40 margin for the right to take on freshman Dem John Adler in this Burlington County-based R+1 district. (JMD)
• NJ-06 (R): Back in the egg-on-NRCC’s-face department, one of their “on the radar” candidates, Monmouth County GOP Vice Chair Diane Gooch, finds herself 61 votes behind Highlands mayor Anna Little. Winner takes on 11-term Dem Frank Pallone. (JMD)
• NJ-07 (R): Frosh GOP Rep. Leonard Lance was held to only 56% in his primary against a four-pack of underfunded teabaggers. His closest foe, businessman David Larsen, received 31% of the vote. (JL)
• NJ-12 (R): NRCC favorite Scott Sipprelle had a surprisingly close call (59-41) against the teabaggish David Corsi for the right to take on Dem Rush Holt in this central Jersey district. (JMD)

Nevada:

• NV-Gov (R): A pathetic end for a pathetic man: GOP Gov. Jim Gibbons claimed only 27% in his primary against ex-AG Brian Sandoval, who won the nod with 56%. Sandoval will try to take on Rory Reid’s lunch money in the fall. (JL)
• NV-Sen (R): Harry Reid must be doing the Angle Dance tonight, as the Dirty Harry Hand Cannon-packing, crypto-Scientologist, prohibitionist, Club for Growth-backed nutcake Sharron Angle trounced former NV GOP Chair Sue Lowden and ex-SoS candidate Danny Tarkanian by an absurd 40-26-23 spread. Harry Reid, you are one lucky bastard. (JL)

South Carolina:

• SC-Gov: State Sen. Vincent Sheheen easily claimed the Democratic gubernatorial nomination in South Carolina with 59% of the vote against the briefly-hyped SC School Superintendent Jim Rex (23%). He’ll have some time to replenish his reserves by the Republican race goes to a runoff, as state Rep. Nikki Haley weathered her recent controversies in fine form with 49% of the vote to TARP-loving US Rep. Gresham Barrett’s 22%. (JL)
• SC-Sen (D): This is just embarrassing. South Carolina Democrats had been hyping the candidacy of Charleston County councilman and ex-state Rep. Vic Rawl for months, but Rawl ended up losing to Alvin Greene, a 32-year-old unemployed ex-military guy who lives with his dad and somehow found the ten grand necessary to file for office. (And it wasn’t even close, either, at 59-41.) Do we have another Scott Lee Cohen on our hands? The morning-after news seems to suggest so, with court records confirming that Greene was charged with showing obscene pictures to a college student. This is now the second cycle in a row where SC Dems have nominated the less-than-ideal choice for Senate. (JL)
• SC-01: Oy. This is pretty damn embarrassing, too. Perennial candidate Ben Frasier (0 for 19!) upset the mildly touted Robert Burton, a former member of the Board of Commissioners of the State Housing Finance and Development Authority, for the Democratic nomination in this open seat. For the Republicans, we’re looking at a run-off between state Rep. Tim Scott (the Club for Growth’s choice), who won 31% of the vote, and legacy candidate Paul Thurmond, who placed second with 16%. (JL)
• SC-03 (R): This was a bit of a surprise. In the race to succeed Gresham Barrett in the House, businessman Richard Cash finished first with 25%, with state Rep. Jeff Duncan also advancing to the run-off with 23%. That’s something of an upset, as state Rep. Rex Rice, who placed third at 19%, was seen as a strong bet to make the run-off. (JL)
• SC-04 (R): Bob Inglis is utterly doomed. The increasingly sane GOP incumbent only won 28% of the vote in his primary against Spartanburg County Solicitor Trey Gowdy and other teabag also-rans. Gowdy ended the night with 39%, meaning that these two are headed for a run-off, but it’s hard to imagine how Inglis can survive this one. (JL)

South Dakota:

• SD-Gov (R): Lt. Gov. Dennis Daugaard easily sowed up the Republican gubernatorial nomination with 50% of the vote in a five-person field. He’ll face state Senate Minority Leader Scott Scott Heidepriem in November. (JL)
• SD-AL (R): This was always a hard race to fit into the usual Republican primary template, since all three of the GOP candidates (SoS Chris Nelson, and state Reps. Blake Curd and Kristi Noem) were establishment types, despite some teabaggish behavior (most notably Nelson, who’d been birther-curious). In the end, Noem prevailed, beating Nelson and Curd without a runoff, 42-35-23. Did Noem’s advertising make the difference, or did Nelson’s birtherism cost him his early frontrunner status? (C)

Virginia:

• VA-02 (R): Auto dealer Scott Rigell wrapped up the Republican nomination to face Dem Rep. Glenn Nye the Freshman Guy with 40% of the vote. Businessman Ben Loyola placed second with 27%. (JL)

• VA-05 (R): Despite being absolutely despised by the teabagging base in the district thanks to his vote for the tax hiking Mark Warner budget many moons ago, state Sen. Robert Hurt easily won the GOP nod against Democrat Tom Perriello with 48% of the vote. Hurt will have to look out on his right flank, though, as Danville businessman Jeff Clark has said that he would run as an independent if Hurt wins the nod. (JL)
  

[cross-posted at DLCC.org]

Late Friday afternoon, Politico’s Ken Vogel published an interesting assessment of the upcoming fight over redistricting.

“GOP lags in early redistricting race” is a broad look at the players in this year’s state-level elections and next year’s map-drawing, as well as at how those organizations fit together.

Yesterday morning's SSP Daily Digest touched on this briefly, but if you don’t have the time to peruse the three-page article at the moment (or even if you do), I thought you might enjoy some selected highlights.

In my latest U.S. Senate projections, posted a few weeks back, I noted my belief that, despite recent polls showing otherwise, I believe Republican Marco Rubio will claim victory over Independent Charlie Crist and Democrat Kendrick Meek in the upcoming Florida Senate race. Though most polling has shown Crist with a modest lead over Rubio and Meek trailing way behind, I’ve been thinking, for several reasons, such may prove short lived.

For one, the bulk of Crist’s impressive support in these polls has stemmed from registered Democrats. Though the centrist Governor could surely win over conservaDems and even many moderate Democrats come the Fall, my suspicion is Meek, a progressive Congressman, will ultimately clean up among the liberals who make up a majority of the Dem electorate. Per CNN polling from 2008, self-identified liberals make up 51% of Florida Dems, with 37% moderates and 13% conservatives. If Meek can hold liberals and win over half of the moderate vote, he’ll defeat Crist 3-to-1 among the total Dem vote, forcing Crist to turn elsewhere in getting the necessary votes.

That “elsewhere” may not necessarily be the party Crist just abandoned.

If you believe the polls, Rubio, the fmr. Florida House Speaker, has already shored-up the vast majority of the GOP vote, leaving Crist with about 20% of his old party’s base. For Crist to pull off a win, this probably cannot be the case. Keep in mind, in Sen. Joe Lieberman’s Independent bid for re-election in 2006, he held onto roughly a third of the Democratic vote, stemmed largely from moderate and conservative Dems. Per that same 2008 CNN primary poll, 61% of Florida Republicans are self-identified conservatives, with 28% moderates and 11% liberals. For a Crist victory, I suspect he’ll need to clean-up among both liberals and moderates, the latter of which could be difficult as the Governor moves toward the left in his quest to win over Democrats.

Unsurprisingly, the most key factor of all for Crist will be the Independent vote, which makes up about 30% of the Florida electorate and, typically, decides statewide elections here. Polls show Crist with a decent lead among this group and, should he hold onto this lead, he’ll surely have a fighting chance at triumph. The question is, can the Governor win over conservative non-affiliates who might find Rubio attractive too? Or, likewise, liberal Indies who are intrigued by Meek? It’s a fine ideological balance Crist must somehow pull off. Move to the center-left? Maintain that slightly right-of-center stance he established in his Gubernatorial tenture?

Whatever the case, I currently think Rubio, one of the hottest GOP commodities on the scene, will eek out a win.

My current thoughts on an electoral breakdown here are, as follows…

Republican – 37%

Democrat – 35%

Independent – 28%

Crist – 15%/35%/45% = 31%

Meek – 0%/60%/15% = 25%

Rubio – 85%/5%/40% = 44%

Crist’s dream scenario probably mirrors something more along the lines of…

Democrat – 35%

Republican – 35%

Independent – 30%

Crist – 65%/25%/55% = 49%

Meek – 30%/0%/10% = 14%

Rubio – 5%/75%/35% = 37%

As you see, Meek and Rubio are relatively stable in their margins, at ranges of 14%-25% and 37-44%, respectively. In all likelihood, neither could win in a two-way match. Crist, on the other hand, has very erratic numbers, with a range of 31%-49%. Such guarantees at least second-place finish, but also means Crist requires 37% to even remain competitive against Rubio.

Such a model assumes a) Meek implodes among registered Dems (much like Republican Alan Schlesinger in that ’06 CT race), b) Crist wins over moderate Republicans, and c) Crist overwhelmingly wins among non-affilated voters. For the time being, I just don’t see Meek as anemic as Schlesinger, and I suspect, amid such an anti-incumbent environment, moderate GOP-ers may prefer Rubio over the sitting Governor. I imagine Crist is ahead among non-affiliateds, but not by enough to run up the necessary margins.

http://polibeast.blogspot.com/…

Washington Republicans have been talking up their chances of retaking the House of Representatives for months, and the National Republican Congressional Committee claims many recruiting successes in competitive House districts. However, before this week Republican primary voters had already rejected NRCC favorites in ID-01, KY-03, PA-04 and AL-05.

After last night we can add IA-02 and IA-03 to the list of districts where the NRCC sure doesn’t know how to pick ’em.

In Iowa’s third district, the NRCC tipped its hat to Jim Gibbons, naming him an “on the radar” candidate in February and bumping him up to “contender” status in April. Although Brad Zaun had won elections for mayor in Republican vote-rich Urbandale and Iowa Senate district 32, some Iowa GOP power-brokers tried to dissuade Zaun from running and got many big donors to come on board with Gibbons. The idea was that Gibbons, a former champion wrestler and wrestling coach for Iowa State University, had the name recognition, determination and drive to beat seven term incumbent Leonard Boswell. (Privately some Iowa politics-watchers suggested to me that major GOP donors may have seen Gibbons as more “malleable” if he got elected.)

We never did see a public poll in the IA-03 primary, but an internal poll released by Zaun’s campaign in February showed that Gibbons’ name recognition was not as high as Zaun’s among Republicans in the district. For the first three months of this year, while Zaun was tied up with the Iowa legislature’s 2010 session, Gibbons didn’t capitalize on the opportunity to campaign aggressively around the district. He focused on fundraising, such as a highly-touted event featuring former House Speaker Dennis Hastert. Gibbons’ 4Q and 1Q Federal Election Commission filings showed him miles ahead of Zaun; being part of the NRCC’s “young guns” program must have helped him with out-of-state donors and PACs.

Gibbons went up on tv about a month before the primary. His commercials (view here and here) were more polished than Zaun’s, and his ad buys were much larger.

But when the votes were counted last night, Zaun won 42 percent of the vote in the seven-way primary, while Gibbons managed just 28 percent. Tea Party favorite Dave Funk didn’t raise enough money for a significant paid media campaign, but he finished not far behind Gibbons with 22 percent. Gibbons did carry several of the smaller counties in IA-03, but Zaun dominated Polk County, containing Des Moines and most of its suburbs. Zaun’s ground game defeated Gibbons’ superior “air power.”

In the second district, the NRCC put political newcomer Rob Gettemy “on the radar” in April, about six weeks after he declared his candidacy. Gettemy had the backing of various prominent Cedar Rapids area Republicans. Republican National Committeeman Steve Scheffler, who heads the Iowa Christian Alliance, is also said to be close to Gettemy, though Scheffler made no formal endorsement in Iowa’s Republican primaries.

Gettemy got in the race late and faced three Republican rivals with substantial campaign experience. Mariannette Miller-Meeks won a tough three-way primary in 2008 to become the IA-02 nominee against Representative Dave Loebsack. Christopher Reed won the U.S. Senate 2008 primary to face Tom Harkin, and Steve Rathje was also a candidate in that Senate primary.

Gettemy had the most cash on hand going into the final two months of the IA-02 race, largely because of a $100,000 loan from the candidate. He went up on tv in early May, as did Rathje. The Gettemy commercials weren’t bad (view them and transcrips here), but they presented a fairly generic Republican message. Miller-Meeks decided not to run any television commercials during the primary campaign, focusing on direct mail and face-to-face contact with voters.

Gettemy’s internal polling must have shown him trailing Miller-Meeks, because his campaign paid for push-polls criticizing her. Over the final weekend of the campaign Gettemy attacked Miller-Meeks for accepting a donation from the American Medical Association PAC. He claimed that donation cast doubt on her opposition to health care reform, even though the opthalmologist Miller-Meeks has criticized “ObamaCare” since last summer and made her stance clear during the campaign.

When the votes were counted, Miller-Meeks won the four-way primary in dominating fashion with 51 percent of the vote. She led in all of IA-02’s 11 counties. Gettemy finished dead last with 13 percent of the vote. Even in his home county (Linn), he came in third. Gettemy won fewer votes across the district than Reed, who raised very little money and is best known for for calling Senator Harkin “the Tokyo Rose of Al-Qaeda and Middle East terrorism” during the 2008 campaign. All of Gettemy’s tv ads and connections to Cedar Rapids movers and shakers delivered fewer votes than Reed managed with his band of way-out-there wingnut endorsers.

The results in IA-02 and IA-03 raise more questions about the NRCC’s ability to identify candidates with strong potential. The “young gun,” “contender” and “on the radar” lists are important signals to NRCC donors about where their money could be most helpful. People who wrote checks to Gibbons or Gettemy without knowing anything about the local landscape may be upset to have wasted money on candidates who lost their primaries so decisively. Many Iowa observers expected the IA-02 or IA-03 nominations to be settled at district conventions, but Gibbons and Gettemy couldn’t even hold their main rivals below the 35 percent threshold.

Iowa Republicans who recruited Gibbons and Gettemy and talked them up to GOP leaders in Washington also may have lost some credibility with party bigwigs in Washington.

The NRCC is certain not to spend serious money on IA-02, which has a partisan index of D+7. I don’t expect them to make a big play for IA-3 (D+1) either, for reasons I discussed here. There are too many other promising Republican pickup opportunities around the country, and even a Zaun victory in November is unlikely to yield a long-term gain for House Republicans. Because Iowa will lose a Congressional district after the 2010 census, the IA-03 winner will probably be thrown into the same district as Tom Latham (R, IA-04) in 2012.  

4:00am: Props 16 and 17 look like they’ll fail tonight, 51.8% No on 16 and 50.7% No on 17. If they follow the trajectory they’ve been taking over the course of the night, expect those numbers to go up. Harmer’s still nursing his 10 point lead over Goehring in CA-11. After nine hours, SSP is signing off!

3:51am: Fortunately for Gary Miller, California’s not a runoff state! He’s now just under 50%! Both props continue to slip now at over 2/3rd reporting; our punch cards say 51.7% No on 16, 50.6% No on 17.

3:45am: Have we crossed the Rubicon? Prop 16 looking headed towards failure with 51.4% opposed. No’s running ahead of yes by 107,000 right now, which in light of what we’re estimating to be 600,000 or so votes left isn’t trivial to overcome. Prop 17 has tipped the balance and is now projected to fail by 0.2%, but No’s 25,000 lead is much more tenuous.

3:30am: No love for Prop 15 (public financing of SoS campaigns); the AP’s finally called ‘No’ with 57%.

3:25am: Looking at Props 16 and 17 now with 57% reporting, both Props’ support continue to weaken. Prop 16 is now on track for 51.2% opposed, and Prop 17 passing by 0.5%. There are a few Prop 16 strongholds left, notably, San Bernardino, San Diego, Riverside and Orange Counties, but there are plenty of smaller NorCal counties there to offset – half of Santa Clara, Yolo, and Alameda; three-fourths of Santa Cruz, and a third of Sonoma. Even Placer’s contributing to the No-on-16 effort,  where it’s failing 53-47 right now.

3:10am: It’s now past midnight Pacific Time, and the big action is left in Props 16 and 17. (Prop 15 hasn’t been called yet, but looks well on target for failure). Prop 16’s fate has changed quite a bit since an hour and a half ago, now looking on track for failure with 50.9% against. What’s changed? More anti-Prop 16 areas in Southern California are reporting: LA County, which had been supporting Prop 16 with 56%, is now down to 52% in support; Santa Barbara which was in support is now against. Prop 17 is doing better, looking on track for passage with about 50.4%.

3:00am: Is Busby the new Sodrel? Busby declared the winner in CA-50, setting up Busby v. Bilbray round 3.

2:56am: In an odd show of moderation by the California GOP, appointed incumbent Lt. Gov Abel Maldonado gets the nod for re-election over conservative challenger State Senator Sam Aanestad.

2:53am: CA-36 (D): Jane Harman has fended off Marcy Winograd for the second time with about 61% of the vote.

2:47am: Gary Miller’s 53% is good enough for the AP to declare him the winner. It’s better than Bob “28%” Inglis, but still weak.

2:45am: CA-36 (D) is looking similar to 2006 at 62-38 for Harman. Laura Richardson was also declared the winner next door in CA-37 with a surprisingly weak 65%.

2:41am: CA-19 (R) called for Denham. Marsden still trailing Goodwin 53-47 on the (D) side.

2:39am: Few more precincts rolled through in CA-42, Gary Miller is now to 53%, in one of tonight’s worst incumbent showings.

2:37am: Kamala Harris gets the Dem nod for Attorney General; matchup will be SF DA Harris vs. LA DA Cooley.

2:32am: Mary Mary quite contrary, how does your garden grow? More quickly now, it seems, enough that the AP has called the Dem Lt. Gov nod for Gavin Newsom and the GOP Att. Gen nod for Steve Cooley.

2:30am: The statewide races aren’t the only thing seemingly standing still. CA-11 is still 35-28 for Harmer, while CA-19 has moved a bit to 37-30 Denham over Patterson, with the odious Dick Pombo back at 20. Gary Miller continues to underwhelm in CA-42 at 54%. Also in a bit of a surprise, California Democratic Party-endorsed candidate Les Marsden is down 47-53 to Some Dude Loraine Goodwin. The only major movement is on the Prop 16 side, which is now slated to fail narrowly with 50.12% against.

2:10am: The sky is still blue, as well, it seems! 36% in now, same holding pattern: 57-31 Newsom for LG (D), 47-28 Maldonado for LG (R); 33-17 Harris for AG (D), and 49-32 Cooley for AG (R). Here at SSP Labs, we are now taking bets over whether Kamala Harris will clear the one-third mark. (Signs pointing to no and a finish around 32%). Prop 16 is now looking at a 50.4% passage.

1:58am: Things are looking a little comfier for David Harmer in CA-11, much to the NRCC’s pleasure, I’m sure. He’s at 36, with Brad Goehring at 27. Amador’s at 19 and Emken at 18.

1:55am: Watching California’s been like watching grass grow, but bring on the Miracle Gro! A cool 1,000 precincts just rolled in, bringing us to 29% reporting. But, alas, grass is still green, 58-30 Newsom for LG (D); 47-28 Maldonado for LG (R); 33-18 Harris for AG (D); and 50-31 Cooley for AG (R). Prop 16 still on track to pass with 51.8%.

1:47am: Prop 16’s back down narrowly in California by less than 2,000 votes. For what was assumed to be a Democrat-Republican issue, this is seriously breaking the usual patterns: the “new Orange County” of Placer County and conservative Kern County (Bakersfield) are voting this down, while normally Democratic SoCal areas like LA and Imperial County are voting yes. Some good old back-of-the-envelope math says passage is likely with 51.8%.

1:42am: Here’s an odd tidbit I missed: the SC-03 Republican runoff is going to be between state Rep. Jeff Duncan (as expected) and businessman Richard Cash (totally unexpected, with state Rep. Rex Rice finishing 3rd), but Cash actually wound up pulling ahead at the end. It was 25 Cash, 23 Duncan, 19 Rice, and 19 for John Grimaud (who’d planned to challenge Joe Wilson in the 2nd, but decided at the last minute that the 3rd would be better).

1:40am: Two special elections in CA today. One for Assembly District 43 (Glendale, Burbank) to replace now-LA City Councilman Paul Krekorian (D), where after 6 precincts, the Dem is up 54-46. AD-43 went for Obama 70-28. The other’s in Senate District 37 to replace now-Riverside Co. Supervisor John Benoit (R). Dems didn’t expect to have a shot, but the Dem nominee’s losing 57-32 in an SD that gave Obama 50.3%. The more exciting special election – to replace now Lt. Gov Abel Maldonado is in two weeks.

1:30am: Still a holding pattern in the four big CA statewide races left, though we’re at 22% reporting now. Newsom still up on Hahn 57-30 for Dem Lt. Gov; Maldonado up 47-28 though Aanestad’s doing well in Orange County. Dem AG remains 33-18-15-12, Harris-Kelly-Torrico-Lieu, and Rep AG is also still at 50-31-19 Cooley/Eastman/Harman. Prop 16 is leading narrowly now and could be extrapolated to it passing 52-48.

1:20am: Things are still a little slow in CA-42; with 6% reporting, Gary Miller’s at 55%, which I think is the 2nd most underwhelming House incumbent performance tonight (ahead of only Bob Inglis). Phil Liberatore is at 32.

1:10am: The last outstanding race in Arkansas looks like it’s been put to bed. In the R primary runoff in AR-03, the AP has called it for Steve Womack, 52-48, over Cecile Bledsoe. Another endorsement fail for Sarah Palin. At least Terry Branstad’s keeping her percentage up.

1:00am: In CA-47, it looks the Vietnamese vote splitting problem never materialized. Van Tran leads the GOP primary at 52, with Kathy Smith at 29 and Tan Nguyen at 19.

12:57am: The Cal SoS seems to be further along than the AP (up to 15% in), and they have a whole different take on CA-11. They have Harmer at 34, not that far ahead of Goehring at 30, with Amador at 18 and Emken at 17.

12:55am: Geez, add even another one to the list. In CA-41, Jerry Lewis (rounding out the trio of Inland Empire GOPers under ethical clouds for weird real estate deals) leads his opposition 66-34.

12:52am: In CA-44, Ken Calvert also looks poised to join the very large club of incumbents not breaking 70% in their primaries. He leads his opposition 69-31. Up in CA-11, establishment pick David Harmer has gained more ground; he’s at 48, with 21 for Emken, 20 for Amador, and 10 for Goehring. And in CA-19, establishment guy Jeff Denham also leads 41, with Patterson at 25 and Pombo at 20, with about 40% reporting.

12:46am: The four Lt. Gov and Attorney General races are still uncalled. For LG (D), Newsom’s up 57-31 on Hahn winning plenty of SoCal locales like San Diego. In the Republican primary, Maldonado’s keeping his edge over Sam Aanestad, who’s even losing stalwart conservative areas like Placer County. For Atty Gen (D), Kamala Harris is keeping a narrow 32-18 lead over Chris Kelly; Torrico in 3rd at 15 and Lieu in 4th at 12. Not enough cat fud in GOP primary; moderate Steve Cooley still up 50-31 on Eastman with Tom Harman back at 19.

12:44am: Former Assembly Speaker Karen Bass wins her primary in CA-33 with 85%, will likely be the next congresswoman from this D+35 district.

12:36am: Sue Lowden can now set up that bartering post she’s always wanted; NV-Sen called for Angle by the AP.

12:33am: No, rly. AP calls the Republican SoS primary for Damon Dunn. Orly Taitz can go back to filing groundless lawsuits as a private citizen. In between pulling teeth.

12:32am: AP has called Proposition 14 (top two primary system) as a ‘yes.’ Take that, third parties!

12:29am: Here’s one GOP moderate who survived a teabagger challenge with little trouble. Mary Bono Mack leads Clayton Thibodeau 74-26 with more than half in, in CA-45. In CA-42, only about 1% is in, but it points to Gary Miller — who we’d thought was most vulnerable to his teabagging opponent, seeing as how he (Liberatore) actually had some money — surviving, albeit unimpressively. Miller leads 58-28.

12:28am: In CA-50, it looks like it’ll be Francine Busby 3.0. With more than 10% in, she’s leading Tracy Emblem 64-36.

12:25am: Switching back to the East coast, there’s one New Jersey race still uncalled. In the GOP primary in NJ-06, 99.6% are in, and Little leads Gooch (the moneybags lady who was On the Radar) by about 100 votes.

12:22am: Joe Heck easily dispensed with the teabag remnants he faced in the GOP primary in NV-03, winning with 70%. There is, however, a barnburner between two guys I don’t know in the Dem primary in NV-02, for the booby prize of going up against Dean Heller: K. McKenna and N. Price are both at 45.

12:19am: Since we last looked, Sharron Angle really turned on the afterburners. Now she’s at 38, with Sue Lowden at 29 and Tark at 22 (oh, and carpetbagging investment banker John Chachas at 4). We’re closing on on half reporting. Angle has pulled into the lead (36-33) in Clark County, where over half the votes are.

12:16am: Bass masters her opposition. Karen Bass, former state Speaker, is at a whopping 85% against minor opposition to succeed Diane Watson in CA-33.

12:14am: In CA-26, David Dreier’s at 78% against minor opposition, much better than a lot of other insider Reps tonight. If anyone knows how to survive a teabagging, it’s him.

12:10am: AP calls CA-Sen for Carly Fiorina. 54 for her, to 26 for Campbell for 17 for DeVore. Campbell heads back to the pasture to resume frightening sheep.

12:09am: Only 2% in in CA-11, but David Harmer is breaking away. He’s at 39, with Tony Amador and Elizabeth Emken both at 24, and liberal huntin’ vintner Brad Goehring at 12.

12:07am: Here’s one more totally unexpected teabagging underway in dark red CA-02. With 10% in, Wally Herger (R) is at only 62% against Some Dude.

12:05am: Holy crap! CA-Sen (D) has been called for Barbara Boxer. The ghost of Paul Wellstone has struck down Mickey Kaus.

12:02am: Here’s a race that was on nobody’s radar screen: Laura Richardson (D in a safe blue district, but associated with foreclosures and a general sense of being out-to-lunch), is at only 65%, although against scattered opposition.

12:01am: Less than 5% reporting, but CA-36 (D) may turn out to be something of a non-event; Jane Harman leads Marcy Winograd 65-35.

12:00am: Onto the Cali House races. In CA-19 (R), with about 23% reporting, Jeff Denham leads Jim Patterson and Richard Pombo 44-23-20. Looks like that poll surge for Patterson didn’t pan out.

11:58pm: Back to South Carolina for a minute, where it’s been confirmed that in SC-01, we’re headed to a GOP runoff between CfG protege Tim Scott and legacy candidate Paul Thurmond. Sorry, “Tumpy.”

11:55pm: Initiatives! Prop 14 (top two primary) passing, 60-40. Peace & Freedom Party heads for dustbin of history. Prop 15 (public financing of elections) failing, 43-57. Prop 16 (electric company tyranny) passing, 53-47. And Prop 17 (auto insurance) also passing 55-45.

11:53pm: AP calls CA-Gov (R) for Meg Whitman. $80-odd million and counting; how much will she spend by November?

11:50pm: For LG, it’s Newsom 52, Hahn 35, and for the GOP, it’s Maldonado 48, Aanestad 28. For AG, Harris leads at 28, with Kelly at 19, Torrico at 15, Lieu at 14, Delgadillo way back at 8. And among GOPer AGers, Cooley 52, Eastman 30.

11:48pm: And in the Senate, Carly Fiorina is leading Tom Campbell and Chuck DeVore 58-23-17. Barbara Boxer leading Mickey Kaus (does that rhyme with Mickey Mouse? never noticed that till now) 78-5.

11:46pm: Quick non-California update: AR-01 called for Chad Causey. Not much love for public hanging, even in West Memphis (home of the West Memphis 3!).

11:45pm: We’re getting close to 5% reporting in California statewide, so let’s turn our attention to the Golden State. Meg Whitman is beating Steve Poizner 64-26, outpacing the polls a bit. Y’know, Jerry Brown is too, actually; he leads Richard Aguirre 83-4.

11:40pm: This may turn out to be the weirdest story of the night, about Alvin Greene, the 32-year-old unemployed ex-military guy who lives with his dad and who now happens to be the Dem nominee for Senate in South Carolina (instead of expected candidate Vic Rawl, a Charleston Co. Commissioner). Somehow he came across $10K to file, and has seemed to have run a phantom campaign ever since then. How did he get here? We’ll no doubt hear more in coming days.

11:35pm: And now the news that’ll have everyone saying “Who?” AP calls ME-Gov (D) for Libby Mitchell. She’ll face Paul LePage in the duel of the unknowns.

11:34pm: We’ll start with the bad news; AP calls IA-Gov (R) for Terry Branstad. But only 50-40 over Vander Plaats.

11:24pm: The night is winding down, but CA and NV are just getting cranked up.

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• AR: Associated Press | Politico
• CA: Associated Press | Politico
• IA: Associated Press | Politico
• ME: Associated Press | Politico
• NV: Associated Press | Politico

11:33pm: Party’s moved next door.

11:31pm: AR-02 has been called by AP for Elliott, now 54-46. She’ll face Tim Griffin… probably not as good a matchup for Dems as Wills.

11:29pm: Angle’s back in the lead in NV-Sen! 35, to Lowden’s 33, with 21 for Tarkanian. 14% in. I’m sure we’ll see lots of back and forth gyrations in this one as different counties report. Lowden has small lead in Clark, while Angle has a much bigger lead in Washoe.

11:27pm: AP has called GOP primary in NJ-12 for Scott Sipprelle, rich guy, over teabagger opposition, but only 54-46. Rush Holt probably not very scared. GOP primary in NJ-06 is still 50-50, with Diane Gooch trailing by 100.

11:25pm: Add a couple more New Jersey races to the list of races where no-name teabaggers held moderates down to so-so numbers. Leonard Lance only racked up 56% in NJ-07, and Chris Smith in NJ-04 held to 69%. Both were ‘yes’ votes on cap & trade.

11:21pm: All the Arkansas House races are super close. In AR-01, it’s Causey 51, Wooldridge 49, with 94% in. In AR-02, it’s Elliot 52, Wills 48, with 91% in. And in AR-03, it’s Womack 50, Bledsoe 50, with Womack up by about 200, although that’s only with 75% in.

11:15pm: ME-Gov (R) called for Paul LePage. Looking like he’ll take on Libby Mitchell in the fall.

11:12pm: Only 1% reporting, but the AP has already called NV-Gov (R) for ex-judge Brian Sandoval. Even the RGA supported him over Jim Gibbons.

11:10pm: Oh yeah, poll closed in California ten minutes ago.

11:01pm: In Iowa, the AP calls IA-03 (R) for Brad Zaun, who will take on Leonard Boswell. In IA-02, Mariannette Miller-Meeks of the dreaded ophthalmologists will rematch against Dave Loebsack.

11:00pm: The AP calls AR-Sen for Blanche Lincoln.

10:51pm: A smattering of precincts and early votes coming in from Nevada, including Clark County (Las Vegas). Gibbons is losing big time to Sandoval in NV-Gov, 57-23. Chicken Lady ahead of Angle 36-33 with Tarkanian at 20.

10:48pm: Ganja break OVER! Maine is now up to 38% in. Libby Mitchell has extended her lead to 34-26 over Rowe, and Paul LePage is cruising.

10:43pm: How baked must they be in Maine right about now? Been at 12% since… whoa… are those Cool Ranch Doritos?

10:40pm: Chad Causey looks like he might hold out over Tim “The Hangman” Wooldridge in AR-01. Meanwhile, Joyce Elliott now has a lead over Robbie Wills in AR-02. And in AR-03, teabagger fave Cecile Bledsoe is beating Steve Womack 54-46. Bledsoe is both a teabagger queen and sort of the establishment choice – I dunno, though, it was a weird race.

10:37pm: We’re pretty confident in calling ND-AL for state Rep. Kristi Noem, who beat the more-or-less establishment choice, SoS Chris Nelson. You only need 35% to avoid a runoff in SD, and Noem has a 41-36 lead with most of the votes in.

10:32pm: Halter took a brief lead for a moment there, but it’s back to where it was.

10:27pm: AR-Sen is 51-49 Blanche, but Halter is still behind where he needs to be, according to our model. If you want a fuller explanation of how our model works, click here.

10:23pm: With 12% reporting, Terry Branstad is up just 51-40 over Bob Vander Plaats in IA-Gov (R).

10:13pm: Can’t wait to see those NV-Sen results start to roll in (soon, I hope). Meanwhile, our friends up in Maine seem to be on the first ganja break of the evening.

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RESULTS:

• AR: Associated Press | Politico
• IA: Associated Press | Politico
• ME: Associated Press | Politico
• NJ: Associated Press | Politico
• NV: Associated Press | Politico
• SC: Associated Press | Politico | SC SEC
• SD: Associated Press | Politico