Month: June 2010

FL-Sen, FL-Gov: Florida Chamber of Commerce Political Institute and Cherry Communications (6/9-13, likely voters, no trendlines):

Rick Scott (R): 35

Bill McCollum (R): 30

Undecided: 33

(MoE: ±_%)

Alex Sink (D): 26

Rick Scott (R): 30

Bud Chiles (I): 15

Alex Sink (D): 26

Bill McCollum (R): 31

Bud Chiles (I): 15

(MoE: ±4%)

Kendrick Meek (D): 14

Marco Rubio (R): 31

Charlie Crist (I): 42

(MoE: ±4%)

IL-Sen: Really gotta wonder what’s going on here. The New York Times keeps digging into Mark Kirk’s past and finds that the nursery school where he claimed to teach for a brief spell in 1981 “never, ever considered” Kirk a teacher, according to a leader of its affiliated church.

UT-Sen: Mike Lee has an internal poll, conducted by Wenzel Strategies, showing him with a 45-35 lead over Time Bridgewater in the GOP primary. However, an independent poll conducted by Dan Jones and Associates for the Deseret News & KSL-TV has almost opposite numbers: 42 Bridgewater, 33 Lee.

IA-Gov: Chet Culver is out with his first ad of the general election campaign, attacking ex-Gov. Terry Branstad for his dodgy fiscal stewardship of the state during his long tenure in the governor’s mansion. No word on the size of the buy.

AR-02: Rove acolyte Tim Griffin is out with an internal poll from OnMessage showing him with a 50-34 lead over Joyce Elliott. He also announced the endorsement of weirdo D.C. Morrison – yeah, the guy who ran in the Democratic senate primary. Not really a surprise, though, since Morrison previously said he planned to support John Boozman in that race.

NY-23: Good news, everybody! I opened up the ballot box, and Schroedinger’s cat fud is very much alive! In fact, there’s a 100% chance of a right-wing split in NY-23 no matter what happens now. That’s because the Independence Party gave their line to Matt Doheny, who is also seeking the Republican nomination. But of course, our old friend Doug Hoffman is also vying for the GOP nod – and he already has the Conservative Party’s endorsement. This means that regardless of who wins the Republican primary, at least one ballot line will remain occupied by a legitimate Republican candidate.

ID-01: This is sorta weird. You remember that Vaughn Ward ripped off an Obama speech, right? Well, it turns out that he also ganked large chunks of a speech from Pat Meehan, too, who is running in PA-07. (At least Meehan’s a Republican.) What’s odd, though, is why is TV news station KTVB investigating this stuff now, weeks after Ward lost the GOP primary? Aren’t there actual candidates worth reporting about?

UT-02: Those same media organizations (see UT-Sen item above) also had Dan Jones poll the 2nd CD, finding Rep. Jim Matheson leading Claudia Wright 52-33 in the Democratic primary. That’s good for Matheson, but by no means great, given his almost comical spending advantage.

Sorry about the title, I was going for something more creative and that is a bit blah. However the title does explain the overview of this diary. This election cycle was expected to be as boring as can be for Indiana yet a series of retirements and resignations changed it. Indiana contains many important elections and promises to be an entertaining year. I will try and provide an overview of all of our elections and even provide predictions. I hope you enjoy!

IN Senate

When Evan Bayh announced just days before the filing date that he would not seek re-election I was furious. However his timing was actually brilliant. It ensured that none of the big name Republicans who would love the job like Pence or Daniels got on the ballot. Instead the Republicans got stuck with washed up former Senator Dan Coats. Coats has been gaff-tastic and is a seriously flawed candidate. While he had a bloody fight to get his parties nomination over a bunch of nobodies we quietly nominated top tier candidate Congressman Brad Ellsworth. Ellsworth is the absolute best person to take on Coats. He is young, energetic and actually lives in Indiana. He is running as an outsider as well, instead of talking about his tenure in Congress he focuses on his time as Sherriff. Ellsworth is solidly against gun control whereas Coats seems to favor it. Ellsworth will likely get a solid number of Republicans who are dissatisfied with Coats. This race has yet to truly take off yet but when it does it will be close, very close. Please do not write Indiana off. Go ahead and give it a Republican lean for now if you want but understand a lot will change when the campaign begins. Please read Ellsworth’s campaign report that includes some encouraging poll results.

http://www.ellsworthforindiana…

Prediction

Ellsworth -50%

Coats-47%

Other-3%

IN-01

Pete Visclosky disgusts me. He is corrupt and genuinely slimy if you get my drift. I have been hoping for a primary challenge for years but to no prevail. It would be nice for him to just retire and take a cozy lobbying job yet he loves Washington too much. He is progressive enough (although the sleaze-ball voted against wall street regulation) however he is very corrupt. Trust me the day will come when his ways catches up to him and he is forced out in disgrace. He is pretty much guaranteed a 14th term to Congress though because the Republicans have yet again nominated a perennial candidate who has no chance of winning. He has ran in every race since 2002. So don’t expect a William Jefferson set of events to happen because trust me Mark Leyva is no Joseph Cao. I just hope next cycle he is booted out in the primary. This guy is an embarrassment and trust me a primary here would be the best thing possible for us.

Prediction

Visclosky-67%

Leyva-33%

(Not sure if there are any third parties running. If so give the Lib 2 and take one away from Visclosky and Leyva respectfully)

IN-02

Joe Donnelly is a nice enough guy. I have only met him once but he seemed friendly. Indiana’s second CD has a Republican tilt to it but I think Donnelly will win by a solid enough margin all the same. He actually beat a somewhat solid candidate in 08, garnering nearly 70% of the vote. Republicans are smart! They nominated a woman who actually goes by Wacky Jackie (although we just nominated Alvin freaking Greene so we probably shouldn’t talk). Jackie is a state representative and former reporter. Do to the nature of the district it is not impossible for Jackie to pull an upset but I highly doubt it. I would put it at lean D.

Prediction

Donnelly-55%

Wolarski-45%

IN-03

I have never been fond of Mark Souder. He has always came off as an ass to me. During his time in Washington he always fought for family values, about as social of conservative as they come. Yeah Mark Souder resigned a bit ago after admitting to having an affair with a staffer, who ironically made a tape with him about abstinence only sex ed. You are supposed to expect anything in Congress but I did not expect that. None the less I was glad he resigned because I was plain and simply glad to see him away from Washington. He had a somewhat close primary to a rich teabagging car dealer owner. However right after all of the affair shit broke and he resigned. So the Republicans chose a nominee at a convention of delegates. Not surprisingly they chose state senator Marlin Stutzman who just ran a very impressive campaign against former Senator and lobbyist Dan Coats. Personally I think Stutzman would have been stronger than Coats but all the same this is a nice parting gift for Stutzman who defeated a hullabaloo of candidates at the convention. I have nothing against Stutzman, while I disagree with him ideology he seems like a nice guy and will be much better than Souder at any rate. We have a great candidate in the district and don’t let anyone tell you otherwise. Former city councilman Tom Hayhurst is running. Hayhurst was the nominee in 2006 and ran a great campaign. He is known for his fundraising ability. If this was 2006 or 2008 I would put this at lean D but Stutzman is too popular and the district too conservative. I know some say that the supporters of his convention opponents won’t show up but I don’t buy that argument, I just don’t. The one positive is that Stutzman primary supporters will probably show up greater in November and may still be mad enough their guy lost to Coats that they may vote Ellsworth.  

Prediction

Stutzman-56%

Hayhurst-44%

IN-04

Steve Buyer does not actually have a squeaky clean reputation but I have never particularly disliked him all the same. He is not seeking re-election this year and do to his wife’s illness. I believe his involvement in the frontier education foundation probably contributed but I want to believe he is retiring solely to spend more time with his wife who is not in good condition health wise. Term limited Indiana SoS Todd Rokita jump at the chance of an upgrade. He also considered a potential Senate run but passed. Rokita is not that bad, while he will be a mostly conservative vote he really does seem reasonable like Dick Lugar, who is also conservative but still has an independent streak. We have no chance here come November. Some dude David Sanders is our nominee.

Prediction

Rokita-66%

Sanders-34%

IN-05

Republicans are so freaking stupid. I am not talking ideology here but pure horse race politics. Dan Burton is the most corrupt politician in the state. He is a royal douche who, I feel, is way out of touch with his district and reality. He is an avid golfer who has actually missed votes to golf with lobbyists and goes on expensive golfing trips. He was also avid on spreading the Vincent Foster conspiracy during Clinton’s days. He has been in Washington too long and everyone hates him and knows he is an ineffective legislature. He was a prime target to be primaried but no, the Republicans fucked it up. About a gizillion people jumped at the chance to knock him out. Had the number of challengers been knocked to single digits he would have lost. But no, name recognition got him a pathetic 30 percent of the vote, barely enough to squeak by former Republican Party chair Luke Messer. 70% of Republicans voted against this sleaze bag but no he still gets a 15th term. Republicans/Teabaggers get your shit together next time! We nominated a real life teabagger Democrat. Yes a teabagging Democrat. I know a lot of people have wondered if the baggers and everyone will unite behind the Democrat, well it ain’t going to happen. Crawford is not a politician and has no skill and while I would rather have a teabagging Democrat than Burton it is not going to happen. Maybe next year they will do it right or maybe Burton will even retire. This is one of those rare moments when teabaggers and Democrats share a same goal.  

Prediction

Burton-67%

Crawford-33%

IN-06

Mike Pence is a savvy politician who has a real future in politics. I wish he was a Democrat because believe me he has skill. I am willing to bet that his next term in Congress will be his last, especially if we retain Congress. He will either run for Governor, Senate or President. The only thing that could get him to stay would be the possibility of being speaker someday but I highly doubt it happens. We have put up, once again, minister Barry Welsh. Barry is a good guy but does not have what it takes to make this race competitive.

Prediction

Pence- 72%

Welsh- 28%

IN-07

Andre Carson is the most progressive elected politician in Indiana. He is only the second Muslim currently in Congress. I really like him and I think he has a real future in the house. Perhaps he will even reach leadership someday. Carson won a special election back in 2008 when his grandmother, a really decent person and effective Congresswoman, passed away. He was elected to a full term by a large margin and will face perennial candidate Marvin Scott in November. Scott was the 2004 nominee for Senate against Evan Bayh, receiving 37% of the vote. He has ran for this seat several times, actually coming close in 1994. Carson has his job in Congress until he does not want it anymore. Scott will be crushed.

Prediction

Carson-65%

Scott-35%

IN-08

Brad Ellsworth is universally known and loved in Indiana’s eight congressional district, however he will not be running for Congress this year but will instead be running for US Senate. We got one of the best possible candidates we could have gotten in state representative Trent Van Haaften. Van Haaften is very popular. People seem to forget that when rating this district. Larry Buchson is the essence of generic R in my view. He offers nothing. He won a very unimpressive primary win, much less than I had predicted. The Tea Party does not like him and I am sure some of them will refuse to vote for him. Van Haaften has even reached out to some of the upset Tea Party members. I could see him getting a lot of Republican votes. No matter how you think the Senate race will turn out it is obvious that Ellsworth will clean up in his own district and that will likely provide coattails for Van Haaften. Fellow Indiana SSP user notanothersonofabush made a good point the other day about The GOP having other priorities and it is very true, the Republicans have there eyes set on the Senate seat and possibly knocking out Hill and this is not at the top of their to do list.  

Prediction

Van Haaften-53%

Buchson-47%

IN-09

Baron Hill is my Congressman and I have the utmost respect for him. He has represented the district well and I have always been fond of him. His only “easy” election was last year when the Republicans nominated retread Mike Sodrel again. Sodrel originally ran in 2002 and was defeated yet he successfully ran in 2004 but was defeated again by Hill in 2006 and very soundly again in 2008. You would think he got the message but no, he once again ran this year and he came in third place in the Republican primary. The Republicans nominated Bloomington attorney Todd Young. Young is nothing special but is a step above lunatic Travis Hankins and Sodrel. I mean at least Young has a higher education than a high school diploma for one. Young is not free of controversy though, he received money from Massey energy, a mining company which is now under scrutiny for unsafe conditions it puts it’s workers through. Hill did one thing uber stupid though. During a town hall one of these Republican activist with a video camera bated the Congressman and got what she wanted with him telling her that it is his town hall and he makes the rules. He is referring to his ban of video camera’s but it did not look good. It makes an excellent attack add. Like I said Hill has never really been given a free pass and this is shaping up to be a much more conservative year than he has faced in the past and the Republicans nominated someone much better than Sodrel. So it will certainly be no cake walk but Hill is used to tough elections and he knows how to handle himself. A lot of people say his vote on health care reform hurt him but I actually think he would be worse off had he voted against the legislation. He needs high turnout in Bloomington and he needs to keep progressives happy there. Also please do not take the poll taken by fire dog lake seriously. They were against the health care reform bill and I believe it was there tactic to poll tough districts to scare members of Congress out of voting for the legislation. The poll in question was highly questionable as it contained many gottcha questions and such. Mike Sodrel even released an internal poll showing him leading by one so it is pretty obvious that poll was highly inaccurate when a Republicans internal shows better news for Hill. Tough but Hill has it in him.

Prediction

Hill-50%

Young-46%

Others-4%

IN SoS

Incumbent Secretary of State Todd Rokita is term limited. The Democrats will nominate Vop Osili  or Tom McKenna for the job and the Republicans nominated Charlie White. I do not know the dynamics of the race, although I consistently receive emails from Vop and he sounds like a serious candidate. I do not know this race enough to make a prediction though, maybe my fellow Indiana SSP users could make the call.

Auditor and Treasurer

Berry and Mourdock are safe. I do not know a lot about the races but they are scandal free so they will probably be fine.

IN State House

We were supposed to lose the state house last year but we managed to cling onto it. I do not think we will be as lucky this year. We have many competitive elections and not a lot in our favor. I am predicting we lose but narrowly. I am going to predict that the Republicans get 52 seats and we get 48. I hope I am wrong.

State Senate

The Republicans will have no problems retaining the state senate.

Please let me know what you think. I welcome all feedback, positive or not. I would especially like to hear from my fellow Indiana SSP users. Thanks!!!!

• CA-Sen: Business Week is out with an interesting list of all the Silicon Valley CEOs who are backing Barbara Boxer… or maybe more to the point, the ones who aren’t backing Carly Fiorina, being in the best possible position to evaluate her legacy of fail at HP. Pro-Boxer names include Yahoo’s Jerry Yang, Oracle’s Larry Ellison, and even Cisco’s John Chambers.

• FL-Sen: Well, if nothing else, maybe this’ll help Marco Rubio’s teabaggin’ average-guy cred: like so many other Americans, he’s facing foreclosure on his home. Well, make that “one of” his homes, so maybe that’s not so average. Court documents show he’s facing a foreclosure suit on a house he co-owns in Tallahassee along with FL-25 candidate David Rivera. Rubio contends that he and Rivera just paid off the $9K delinquency yesterday (after Politico started asking questions).

• NV-Sen: So here’s why the GOP is keeping Sharron Angle under wraps while giving her the Eliza Doolittle treatment behind the scenes: an impromptu interview with a KLAS TV reporter turned into Angle getting tied into knots over Social Security “transitioning out” and then cutting the interview short when getting asked about UN withdrawal. It was followed up by a denunciation from a nameless campaign spokesperson who called the reporter “an idiot” and “another term that can’t be repeated.” Meanwhile, the whole massage/sauna thing keeps being an issue, with Angle now saying that the wacky rehabilitation program that she backed has nothing to do with Scientology… it’s a natural homeopathic method that just happens to have been developed by L. Ron Hubbard.

• WA-Sen: Here’s some more momentum for Clint Didier’s tea-flavored campaign: Sarah Palin is doubling down on her backing. He’ll be getting at least two appearances with her, who previously endorsed him before Dino Rossi’s entry into the race. He also got some sort-of good news from the NRSC, saying that they promised (having gotten burned on the Crist/Rubio and Norton/Buck fronts) that they wouldn’t take any sides until there was actually a nominee. (He also took a few whacks at the EPA in the interview, fed up with their “unburdensome regulations.”)

• MD-Gov: I’m not sure what Brian Murphy, the random right-wing businessman who’s running in the GOP primary against Bob Ehrlich, had in mind when he released this internal poll, taken for him by a polling company called Polling Company; it shows him trailing Dem incumbent Martin O’Malley 44-25. The more interesting number is that Ehrlich trails O’Malley by only 1, 44-43. Perhaps the most salient number (the Ehrlich/Murphy matchup) doesn’t even get mentioned. Gee, I wonder why?

• OK-Gov: The newest Sooner poll has Republican Rep. Mary Fallin looking large and in charge in the open-seat gubernatorial race. Fallin leads state Sen. Randy Brogdon 59-10 in the GOP primary, and leads both Democrats by double-digits: 50-35 against AG Drew Edmondson and 49-36 against LG Jari Askins. The Dem primary is super-close, with Edmondson leading Askins only 37-36. Want to see a Dem win this race? Make sure Brodgon somehow wins the GOP primary. Edmondson leads Brogdon 41-40, while Askins leads 44-36.

• AL-07: Terri Sewell is out with an internal poll (from Anzalone Liszt) giving her a lead coming out of the primary and heading into the runoff against Shelia Smoot. Sewell, who’s the only candidate who’s done much advertising, now claims a 53-33 lead over Smoot (after winning the primary with an 8-pt. margin). The difference maker is that Smoot Sewell is winning the majority (48-38) of backers of third-place finisher Earl Hilliard Jr. (Hilliard has said he won’t be endorsing either one in the runoff.)

• FL-08: I’m not even sure where to begin with this weird story, but apparently Bruce O’Donoghue, one of the various Republicans in the primary in the 8th, is accusing the Florida Tea Party of being in cahoots with Rep. Alan Grayson, to run Peg Dunmire on their line and split the conservative vote. He’s pointing out connections between Grayson and local talk radio host and local Tea Party co-founder Doug Guetzloe, but both Grayson and Guetzloe say those connections aren’t meaningful. Recall that the loudly liberal Grayson actually did appear at a teabaggers’ rally last summer, but that seemed to mostly be about their common cause over the issue of auditing the Fed.

• NC-02: Here’s a sign that maybe we don’t need to take the Renee Ellmers campaign that seriously, at least not yet: her consultant, Carter Wrenn, is stepping on the NRCC’s message management after having gotten gifted a video of Bobby Etheridge’s freak-out with trackers. Despite the NRCC’s protestations that they have no idea who these innocent “college students” are, Wrenn says that his own conversations with the NRCC indicate that they know who they are.

• TX-23: Another slightly stale GOP internal poll (this one by OnMessage, taken in mid-May) shows, big surprise, a competitive race in the 23rd. Incumbent Dem Ciro Rodriguez leads self-funding GOPer Quico Canseco 48-45. Given that internal polls tend to get released only when they show a candidate’s best-case scenario, this may actually make me feel a little more confident about Rodriguez, whom we always knew was in for a rough ride this cycle. (H/t GOPVOTER.)

• VA-05: Huh, here’s a rapid about-face from GOP nominee Robert Hurt. Last Saturday, he said he’d “absolutely” be willing to participate in three-way debates with not just Tom Perriello but also tea-flavored independent Jeffrey Clark. Perhaps Clark was wondering why Perriello seemed very pleased with that (or maybe somebody smarter about this stuff from the NRCC gave him a call and pointed out that Clark’s votes are coming only out Hurt’s column), but now he’s reversed course and says he “cannot allow the important debate in this election to be sidetracked by a candidate who is not serious about his campaign.”

• WV-03: Here’s one other sketchy poll: an internal poll from the camp of Spike Maynard, the GOPer in the race, taken by somebody called Mark Blankenship Enterprises. (Steve Singiser wonders if there’s any familial connection to Massey Energy CEO Don Blankenship, the travel buddy of Maynard, but this article seems to think not.) At any rate, long-time Rep. Nick Rahall leads Maynard 42-36.

• Facebook: Thanks for helping us smash through the completely arbitrary yet very important barrier of 500 fans! Keep the “likes” coming!

SurveyUSA for KSTP (6/14-16, likely voters, 5/3-5 in parens):

Mark Dayton (DFL): 39

Margaret Anderson Kelliher (DFL): 26

Matt Entenza (DFL): 22

Undecided: 11

(MoE: ±4.5%)

Mark Dayton (DFL): 38 (34)

Tom Emmer (R): 35 (42)

Tom Horner (IP): 12 (9)

Undecided: 15 (15)

Margaret Anderson Kelliher (DFL): 33 (33)

Tom Emmer (R): 35 (41)

Tom Horner (IP): 12 (9)

Undecided: 21 (17)

Matt Entenza (DFL): 33 (31)

Tom Emmer (R): 37 (42)

Tom Horner (IP): 12 (10)

Undecided: 18 (16)

(MoE: ±2.5%)

The newest SurveyUSA poll of the Minnesota governor’s race shows an unlikely political comeback underway: ex-Sen. Mark Dayton, who retired in 2006 because few people expected him to be able to win re-election, is now the favorite in the DFL primary against DFL-endorsed Margaret Anderson Kelliher, and also the only Dem currently beating Republican Tom Emmer.

It’s a better set of numbers for the Dems than the ones put up in the previous SurveyUSA poll, where Emmer had a substantial lead in the midst of a post-convention bounce. These numbers instead look much closer to the more recent MPR poll, which had Dayton beating Kelliher by 10 in the primary and Emmer by 4 in the general (while Emmer narrowly beat MAK and Entenza). The previous SurveyUSA poll was distinguished by much demographic weirdness in the crosstabs, but today’s poll has many of the same oddities (the Democratic primary sample in today’s poll, for instance, is only 34% liberal, is only 56% in the Twin Cities, and actually has 22% Tea Party supporters in it, while those 18-34 year olds still continue to be big Emmer backers)… so I suspect there is some real movement away from Emmer as his bounce fades, rather than merely a more favorable sample.

(originally posted on DailyKos)

In a move that may shock some here, but not me, Stephen Colbert really went out of his way last night to ask the Republican primary voters in SC-04 to vote for Bob Inglis in their primary runoff next Tuesday.

So why did Stephen do this?  Watch the video.  I think Stephen, while casting it with humor and jokes, is deadly serious about wanting Inglis to win.  Why?

SC-04 is a district where Obama only got 38% of the vote.  It’s that conservative, where a Democrat doesn’t have a shot.  I mean, it’s freaking Jim DeMint’s old seat!!  So, better to have a sane conservative than an insane one in office.  Conservatives deserve representation too.  That representation should come in the form of people like Inglis, rather than hate-mongers like Steve King (R-IA), Michele Bachmann (R-MN), and James Inhofe (R-OK), if people are actually interested in good government.

And it’s really a damning indictment of what the GOP in South Carolina stands for when they’re trying to kick him out of office because he dared to oppose the surge in Iraq in 2007, and actually dared to speak out against offshore oil drilling (yeah, he was doing that BEFORE the BP disaster) and warrantless surveillance, before voting for the bailout in 2008.

Then last year, he really pissed the base off by voting to censure Joe “You Lie” Wilson, and by calling out Glenn Beck as a fear-monger at one of those angry townhalls.  And after the Mark Sanford scandal hit the news, he said this:

But with his governor now felled by similar temptations, Inglis sees an opening for the Republican Party, a chance to “lose the stinking rot of self-righteousness” and “to understand we are all in need of some grace.”

This is not “Bob Inglis 1.0,” the one that was a “self-righteous” expletive, he said in an interview with Washington Wire today. It is a Bob Inglis that is, if anything, more Christian, more attuned to the Gospels, he said.

His last conversation with Gov. Mark Sanford was about the hundreds of millions of dollars in stimulus money that the uncompromising governor was trying to refuse for his impoverished state. Inglis had voted against President Barack Obama’s $787 billion stimulus bill, ardently, he said.

But he said he told the governor, now that it was approved, “for goodness sake, take the money.” It might just help.

Indeed, Sanford’s political fall could be a saving grace for what remains of his governorship, Inglis suggested. “This may be an opportunity to extend a little grace to other people, to realize that maybe it’s not 100% this way or that way,” Inglis said.

My God, sanity from a Republican!  His problem with the modern day GOP is that while he’s very conservative, he doesn’t go out of his way to be a vicious, hateful person.  He’s telling these angry fringe people to calm down, and that only makes them angrier.

There’s something to be said for us perhaps rooting for the most far-right Republican to win their primary because they’d be viewed as too far right in a general election.  (See: Angle, Sharron, and Paul, Rand.)  But in a district like SC-04, there’s basically no such thing, so in these situations, you want the sane conservative in office, rather than a nutjob to actually gain that power.  I think Stephen recognizes that scenario playing out, and knows that Inglis, while he’ll probably almost never vote with the Democrats, will at least be someone we can respect.  (But yes, I’m sure someone can dredge up some stuff he’s said in the past that aren’t that nice.)

And Inglis winning his runoff next week would be a great slap in the face of the Tea Party, that their bile and message of hatred will not even work in South Carolina.

California Republicans in Orange and San Diego counties rejected Joe Arpaio’s anti-immigrant sheriff’s candidates last week.  Let’s hope South Carolina Republicans can show a similar message against hate next week.

CA-Sen: Biden alert! The VPOTUS will do a fundraiser for Barbara Boxer next month in Silicon Valley, followed by a next-day affair in the City of Angels. President Obama’s already done several events for Boxer, but of course, CA is damn enormous and expensive.

FL-Sen: We often criticize candidates for making phony ad buys which are really just pure media plays – but usually they aren’t this obvious about it. Zillionaire asshole Jeff Greene, ostensibly running for senate in Florida, is running ads on cable television… in Washington, DC. Greene is trying to goad the House Ethics Committee into investigating some earmark activity on Kendrick Meek’s part. I doubt this is going to work. Oh, and of course no word on the size of the buy. I mean, why even bother?

SC-Sen: The South Carolina Democratic Party turned back Vic Rawl’s challenge to Alvin Greene’s shocking primary win, citing a lack of evidence that would mandate an attempt to overturn the election results.

AL-Gov: If Tim James really wanted to stop a Republican from winning an election, he should have given that $200,000 to me. Instead, the money that he’s blown on a statewide recount has actually cost him ten votes so far, with 59 of 67 counties (representing 94% of the state’s population) having finished their second count. James trails second-place finisher Robert Bentley by 177 votes now, as opposed to 167 after election night. I really wonder who advised him on this move.

OH-Gov: Despite his repeated claims that he wasn’t very involved in Lehman Brother’s business operations, John Kasich still felt threatened enough by his connection that one of his staffers engaged in a little sideline duty – he advised Ohio’s largest public pension fund on how best to spin its nine-figure losses attributable to the Lehman debacle. Ah, who doesn’t love some nice shady commingling?

NC-02: Civitas hired SUSA to conduct a snap poll of the NC-02 race, in the wake of Bob Etheridge’s videotaped spazz-out the other day. They find Republican Renee Ellmers at 39, Etheridge at 38, and, weirdly, libertarian Tom Rose at 13. (Note that Ellmers has $5K on hand and Rose hasn’t filed a report.) Tom Jensen offers a note of caution, though, pointing out that a poll PPP did immediately after Joe Wilson’s “You lie!” embarrassment also showed the incumbent down a point – but it’s extremely unlikely the race looks anything like that today. Of course, SC-02 is quite a bit more GOP-friendly than NC-02 is Dem-friendly.

DCCC: The Hill has a follow-up piece on the shameful state of DCCC dues payments. Even at this late date, retiring members Brian Baird, Vic Snyder, Dennis Moore, Bart Gordon, and John Tanner (who is a member of leadership) are still way behind on their dues, and some have even contributed nothing, despite huge warchests. Of course, this is only a very partial list of deadbeats.

Moose Lady: For those of you who like to keep track of Sarah Palin’s endorsements, well, she’s backing Rep. Cathy McMorris Rodgers (WA-05), Star Parker (CA-37 – I know, very lulzy), and Rep. Mary Fallin (OK-Gov).

Facebook: We’re currently at 480 fans on SSP’s Facebook page. We’d really, really like to get to 500 – and you also know we ain’t too proud to beg – so won’t you please “like” us?

Mr. desmoinesdem alerted me to a recent court ruling in Don Henley’s copyright suit against Chuck DeVore for two web videos DeVore made during his U.S. Senate campaign in California.

Ben Sheffner has been covering the lawsuit at the Copyrights and Campaigns blog.

Henley sued over web videos that set new lyrics to two of his songs. DeVore changed “The Boys of Summer” to “The Hope of November” in a video that mocked Barack Obama, and he changed “All She Wants to Do Is Dance” to “All She Wants to Do Is Tax” in a video that mocked Senator Barbara Boxer.

DeVore claimed fair use on the grounds that the songs he put in his videos were parodies. The problem for DeVore was that legally, “a parody comments on the work itself; a satire uses the work to comment on something else.” DeVore wasn’t rewriting lyrics like Weird Al Yankovic used to do to make fun of musicians. He was scoring points against Obama and Boxer. If you haven’t paid for the rights to use a song, you have to meet a higher legal standard for satire than for parody.

You can download Judge James Selna’s ruling here. Excerpt:

Even assuming that “parody-of-the-author” is a legitimate transformative purpose, the Defendants’ songs do not satisfy the fair use analysis, as discussed below. “Tax” does not target Henley at all, and “November,” which only implicitly targets Henley, appropriates too much from “Summer” in relation to its slight jab at Henley and risks market substitution for “Summer” or its derivatives.

DeVore had claimed he was mocking Henley as part of the liberal Hollywood elite, but Henley argued in one legal brief that he has given money to some Republican candidates, including John McCain. (Who knew?)

Selna agreed with the plaintiffs’ claim that by using the Henley songs in their videos, DeVore’s campaign supplanted the market for derivatives of the Henley songs, because “licensees and advertisers do not like to use songs that are already associated with a particular product or cause. […] This injury is the very essence of market substitution.”

While Selna granted the plaintiffs summary judgment on the issue of copyright infringement, he did not issue a finding on whether the infringement was willful. (If so, Henley would have a stronger claim for monetary damages.) Sheffner comments, “I assume there will be a jury trial on the issue of willfulness and damages, unless the parties are able to reach a resolution.”

Selna rejected the plaintiffs’ claim that DeVore violated the Lanham Act by giving people the wrong impression that Henley had endorsed DeVore’s Senate campaign. Sheffner explained in this post why he thought Henley would (and should) lose that portion of the lawsuit.

Other candidates and campaign staffers should review this case before they decide to use copyrighted songs in web ads.

So this is my most ambitious and most speculative exercise to date.  Below are my predictions for the TWO WAY vote in every House race that I expect to be within 20% (plus three pickups in AR-02, LA-03, and TN-06 that I expect to be greater than 20%).  Unlike my previous efforts, this is almost entirely unscientific and subjective, except that I have tried to make a reasonable distribution of margins of victories (not too many close ones, not too many blowouts).  

Overall, I have a net of 25 seats to the Republicans, with 29 Republican pickups and 4 Democratic ones.  Pickups are in bold.  

AK-AL – Young (R) 59, Crawford (D) 40 – Crawford underfunded and AK too red.

AL-02 – Bright (D) 50.3, Roby (R) 49.7 – Bright scrapes by with conservative record.

AL-05 – Brooks (R) 59, Raby (D) 41 – Northern Alabama going red fast.

AR-01 – Causey 50 (D), Crawford (R) 49 – AR Dems able to focus here for lack of other competitive races.

AR-02 – Griffin (R) 60, Elliott (D) 40 – This one was decided by the Dem primary.

AZ-01 – Kirkpatrick (D) 53, Gosar (R) 46 – Republican field somewhat unimpressive.

AZ-03 – Quayle (R) 59, Hulburd (D) 41 – R+9 open seat too much to ask this cycle.

AZ-05 – Mitchell (D) 51, Schweikert (R) 48 – Rematch of 2008, where Mitchell won by 9.

AZ-08 – Giffords (D) 52, Paton (R) 47 – Paton a strong candidate, but Giffords has lots of $$$.

CA-03 – Lungren (R) 55, Bera (D) 44 – R+6 seat too tough in this environment.

CA-11 – McNerney (D) 52, Harmer (R) 48 – McNerney wins a squeaker.  Bluing part of Cali.

CA-18 – Cardoza (D) 56, Berryhill (R) 43 – Cardoza needs to raise more $$$.

CA-20 – Costa (D) 59, Vidak (R) 41 – No problem for Costa.

CA-44 – Calvert (R) 59, Hedrick (D) 41 – Calvert not taken by surprise this time.

CA-45 – Bono-Mack (R) 58, Pougnet (D) 41 – Bono-Mack prevails in favorable environment.

CA-47 – Sanchez (D) 58, Tran (R) 41 – Have never taken this one too seriously.

CO-03 – Salazar (D) 54, Tipton (R) 46 – Substantial $$$ advantage for Salazar.

CO-04 – Gardner (R) 53, Markey (D) 47 – Tough HCR vote in this district.

CO-07 – Perlmutter (D) 56, Frazier (R) 43 – D+4 district.  Perlmutter has fundraised well.

CT-04 – Himes (D) 56, Debicella (R) 44 – Himes a super fundraiser.

CT-05 – Murphy (D) 56, Caliguiri (R) 43 – Murphy notches relatively comfortable win.

DE-AL – Carney (D) 55, Urquhart (R) 45 – Glad Carney got in the race early.

FL-02 – Southerland (R) 51, Boyd (D) 48 – HCR vote seals Boyd’s fate.

FL-08 – Grayson 50 (D), Webster (R) 49 – Grayson spends huge to win.

FL-10 – Young (R) 59, Justice (D) 40 – Poor Charlie Justice.  Fundraising embarrassing.

FL-12 – Ross (R) 57, Edwards (D) 43 – Once-promising race goes by the wayside due to environment.

FL-22 – Klein (D) 53, West (R) 47 – West has raised tons of $$$, but thankfully Klein has too.

FL-24 – Miller 50 (R), Kosmas (D) 49 – Another tough HCR vote for the district.

FL-25 – Rivera (R) 55, Garcia (D) 44 – Rivera had monster first fundraising quarter.

GA-02 – Bishop (D) 56, Keown (R) 43 – Bishop is pretty entrenched in this heavily AA district.

GA-08 – Marshall (D) 54, Scott (R) 45 – Scott starting from scratch in fundraising.

HI-01 – Hanabusa (D) 54, Djou (R) 46 – Djou can beat two Democrats but not one.

IA-03 – Boswell (D) 54, Zaun (R) 45 – Zaun has a lot of catching up to do in fundraising.

ID-01 – Minnick 50.4 (D), Labrador (R) 49.6 – Tough year to rely on crossover votes.

IL-08 – Bean (D) 58, Walsh (R) 41 – This one could be worse.  Walsh is a joke.

IL-10 – Seals (D) 50.1, Dold (R) 49.9 – Seals squeaks by in 20%+ Obama district.

IL-11 – Kinzinger (R) 53, Halvorson (D) 47 – Kinzinger an outstanding candidate.

IL-14 – Hultgren 50 (R), Foster (D) 49 – Top of the ticket hurts Foster.

IL-17 – Hare (D) 58, Schilling (R) 42 – Schilling raising decent money in D+3 seat.

IN-02 – Donnelly (D) 55, Walorski (R) 45 – Jacky too wacky to win.

IN-08 – Bucshon (R) 52, Van Haaften (D) 47 – Van Haaften a good candidate, but tough district.

IN-09 – Young 50 (R), Hill (D) 49 – Another tough HCR vote.

KS-03 – Yoder (R) 55, Moore (D) 45 – Big fundraising head start for Republicans.

KS-04 – Pompeo (R) 59, Goyle (D) 40 – Way too red for this cycle.

KY-03 – Yarmuth (D) 59, Lally (R) 40 – Lally only semi-serious competition.

KY-06 – Chandler (D) 54, Barr (R) 45 – Barr is a decent candidate, but Chandler should win comfortably.

LA-02 – Richmond (D) 58, Cao (R) 41 – Huge Dem lean too much for Cao.

LA-03 – Downer (R) 61, Sangisetty (D) 38 – Easy pickup in Cajun country.

MA-05 – Tsongas (D) 59, Golnik (R) 40 – Golnik has raised some decent $$$.

MA-10 – Keating (D) 55, Perry (R) 45 – Don’t think this hyped race will be all that close.

MD-01 – Harris (R) 53, Kratovil (D) 46 – Really tough district for Kratovil to defend.

MI-01 – Allen (R) 52, McDowell (D) 47 – Tough district for Dems to hold.

MI-07 – Walberg (R) 52, Schauer (D) 48 – Schauer barely got by Walberg in 2008.

MI-09 – Peters (D) 55, Welday (R) 44 – Peters has huge financial edge.

MN-01 – Walz (D) 57, Demmer (R) 42 – Big financial edge for Walz.

MN-06 – Bachmann (R) 57, Clark (D) 43 – PPP poll did not bode well for Clark.

MO-03 – Carnahan (D) 56, Martin (R) 43 – Martin has raised some serious $$$.

MO-04 – Skelton (D) 54, Stouffer (R) 45 – Tough race but Skelton pulls through comfortably.

MS-01 – Nunnellee (R) 53, Childers (D) 46 – Wish Nunnellee had to deal with a runoff on Tuesday.

MS-04 – Taylor (D) 57, Palazzo (R) 43 – Taylor very well entrenched in incredibly red district.

NC-02 – Etheridge (D) 58, Ellmers (R) 42 – Don’t think the fisticuffs will have a tremendous impact here.

NC-07 – McIntyre (D) 58, Pantano (R) 41 – McIntyre has gone as far as any Dem to act Republican.

NC-08 – Kissell (D) 54, Johnson (R) 46 – PPP polling suggests Kissell will be OK here.

NC-11 – Shuler (D) 55, Miller (R) 44 – Shuler a very good fit for the district.

ND-AL – Berg 51 (R), Pomeroy (D) 49 – Hoeven coattails carry Berg.

NE-02 – Terry (R) 57, White (D) 43 – Too much to ask for in this cycle.

NH-01 – Guinta (R) 50.2, Shea-Porter (D) 49.8 – Tough year for Dems in NH.

NH-02 – Bass (R) 52, Kuster (D) 48 – Bass has strong polling leads.

NJ-03 – Adler (D) 54, Runyan (R) 45 – Runyan better at pass blocking than politics.

NJ-12 – Holt (D) 56, Sipprelle (R) 43 – Sipprelle has just about matched Holt fundraising.

NM-01 – Heinrich (D) 56, Barela (R) 44 – Heinrich should hold on in Dem district.

NM-02 – Pearce (R) 51, Teague (D) 48 – Tough district, tough opponent.

NV-03 – Heck (R) 52, Titus (D) 48 – Polls show Titus down.

NY-01 – Bishop (D) 54, Altschuler (R) 46 – Altschuler spending scary money.

NY-13 – McMahon (D) 55, Allegretti (R) 44 – Republicans in this district are a mess.

NY-19 – Hall (D) 53, Hayworth (R) 46 – Hall needs to get on the fundraising.

NY-20 – Murphy (D) 57, Gibson (R) 42 – Murphy lucky to have lackluster opponent.

NY-23 – Owens (D) 53, Hoffman (R) 46 – Owens widens lead in re-match.

NY-24 – Hanna (R) 52, Arcuri (D) 47 – Arcuri a poor candidate and Hanna a good one.

NY-25 – Maffei (D) 58, Buerkle (R) 42 – Maffei should be OK against subpar opposition.

NY-29 – Reed (R) 58, Zeller (D) 42 – Easy pickup for the GOP.

OH-01 – Chabot (R) 56, Driehaus (D) 44 – Afraid the awful polls are right on this one.

OH-06 – Wilson (D) 58, Johnson (R) 42 – Wilson has not had any problem in this Appalachia district.

OH-12 – Tiberi (R) 59, Brooks (D) 41 – Big financial edge for Tiberi.

OH-13 – Sutton (D) 55, Ganley (R) 45 – $$$ isn’t everything.  Sutton wins Dem district.

OH-15 – Stivers (R) 56, Kilroy (D) 44 – Kilroy only swept in because of strong 2008 environment.

OH-16 – Renacci (R) 53, Boccieri (D) 46 – Tough HCR vote for Boccieri in this district.

OH-18 – Space 51 (D), Gibbs (R) 49 – Huge Space fundraising edge.

OR-01 – Wu (D) 57, Cornilles (R) 43 – Should be enough Dem votes here for Wu to get by pretty easily.

OR-04 – DeFazio (D) 58, Robinson (R) 42 – Only a D+1 district, but no problem for DeFazio.

OR-05 – Schrader (D)  56, Bruun (R) 44 – Swing district, but Schrader should win.

PA-03 – Dahlkemper (D) 54, Kelly (R) 46 – Republicans failed to land big-time opponent here.

PA-04 – Altmire (D) 55, Rothfus (R) 45 – Altmire in a decent position for re-election.

PA-06 – Gerlach (R) 57, Trivedi (D) 43 – This isn’t the year to finally take out Gerlach.

PA-07 – Meehan 51 (R), Lentz (D) 49 – Meehan financial advantage gets him through.

PA-08 – Murphy (D) 52, Fitzpatrick (R) 48 – Worried about this one.  Fitzpatrick raising $$$ fast.

PA-10 – Carney 51 (D), Marino (R) 49 – Carney a good politician with a strong financial edge.

PA-11 – Barletta (R) 50.4, Kanjorski (D) 49.6 – Kanjorski barely got by in 2008.

PA-12 – Critz (D) 53, Burns (R) 47 – Critz takes the re-match.

PA-15 – Dent (R) 55, Callahan (D) 44 – Tough to take out Republican incumbents this cycle.

PA-16 – Pitts (R) 59, Herr (D) 41 – PPP showed a 9-point race here.

PA-17 – Holden (D) 57, Argall (R) 42 – Holden survived 1994.  He’ll survive this.

SC-02 – Wilson (R) 59, Miller (D) 40 – “You lie!” outburst goes unpunished.

SC-05 – Spratt (D) 51, Mulvaney (R) 48 – Spratt barely holds on.

SD-AL – Herseth-Sandlin (D) 52, Noem (R) 48 – Don’t see the fireable offense for Herseth-Sandlin.

TN-04 – Davis (D) 53, Bailey (R) 47 – Republican internal had Davis up 11 in March.

TN-06 – Tracy (R) 63, Leming (D) 36 – Dems giving this one away.

TN-08 – Herron (D) 50.1, Fincher (R) 49.9 – Strong candidate squeaks by in tough district.

TX-17 – Flores (R) 53, Edwards (D) 47 – R lean of the district finally catches up to Edwards.

TX-23 – Rodriguez (D) 54, Canseco (R) 46 – Moderately competitive race for Ciro.

TX-27 – Ortiz (D) 58, Farenthold (R) 41 – Not much trouble for Ortiz.

UT-02 – Matheson (D) 57, Philpot (R) 42 – Matheson has enormous financial advantage.

VA-02 – Rigell (R) 51, Nye (D) 48 – One of those districts that sweeps in and out with environment.

VA-05 – Hurt 51 (R), Periello (D) 49 – Periello needs Teabagger to draw from Hurt.

VA-09 – Boucher (D) 54, Griffith (R) 45 – Big financial advantage for Boucher.

VA-11 – Connolly (D) 52, Fimian (R) 47 – Fimian ran reasonably strong in 2008, losing by 11.

WA-02 – Larsen (D) 57, Koster (R) 42 – Koster reasonably well-funded.

WA-03 – Heck 51 (D), Herrera (R) 49 – Heck has early financial edge.

WA-08 – Reichert (R) 56, DelBene (D) 44 – Too tough a year to beat Reichert.

WI-03 – Kind (D) 57, Kanapke (R) 42 – Big financial edge for Kind.

WI-07 – Lassa (D) 51, Duffy (R) 48 – Maybe it’s just hard for me to take reality TV stars seriously.

WI-08 – Kagen (D) 52, Ribble (R) 47 – Kagen goes into his pockets to win another tough race.

WV-01 – Oliviero (D) 50, McKinley (R) 49 – Incredibly conservative Oliviero squeaks by.