Month: June 2010

• AK-Sen: It looks like that unexpected Sarah Palin endorsement may have put Joe Miller on the map, in his challenge from the right to Lisa Murkowksi in the GOP Senate primary. Now he’s gotten the backing of the Tea Party Express. Of course, it remains to be seen whether the libertarian-minded teabagger message has much resonance in Alaska; remember, at the end of the day, Alaska Republicans like their federal goodies a lot (hence the staying power of Ted Stevens and Don Young).

• IL-Sen: Could a factual dispute over Mark Kirk claims that he taught at a nursery school actually succeed in taking him down yet another peg? Kirk mentioned in a 2006 speech that he’d been a teacher, worrying about what kid might bring a gun to class. After questions arose as to whether Kirk had ever actually taught, his campaign clarified that it was a reference to his time working for one semester at a nursery school in Ithaca, New York. If even the preschool-age children of Cornell professors are taking guns to class, we’re in a lot more trouble than I’d thought. There’s also one other weird Illinois item out today: the 7th Circuit just ruled that there needs to be a special election to fill Barack Obama’s seat, after all. That’s about a year too late to be relevant, considering that Roland Burris’s tenure is almost over. But it may yet result in a special election coinciding with the November general election, which would presumably mean that Alexi Giannoulias or Kirk would get to serve in the lame-duck session and get a smidge more all-important seniority. [UDPATE: Actually, because there’s no “irreparable harm,” the 7th Circuit didn’t order a special election even though they said there probably should have been one; instead, they sent the case back down to the district court.]

• SC-Sen: Guess who’s back all of a sudden, now that there’s a gaping hole where a competent candidate should be in South Carolina? Supporters of Linda Ketner, who last year declined a re-run in SC-01 (where she’d run well in 2008), are floating her name for a Senate run. Since it doesn’t look like Alvin Greene is getting off the Democratic ballot line (after the state election commission today said they aren’t getting involved), the deep-pocketed Ketner would need to run as an independent instead. Ketner, herself, hasn’t said anything about a bid though.

• CA-Gov: Why walk back to the center after winning your primary, when you can make one frantic, implausible leap instead? After getting pulled to the right by Steve Poizner in the primary, now Meg Whitman is saying “No, no, I love immigrants,” in a Spanish-language TV ad that’ll debut during today’s Mexico/France World Cup game. She says she opposed Arizona’s new immigration law and opposed Califorina’s 1994 Prop 187, too.

• FL-Gov: Indie candidate Bud Chiles isn’t getting the warmest of welcomes in his newly-launched bid; news reports are surfacing of his involvement in a real estate development flop in a small Panhandle town. Chiles is a defendant in seven different lawsuits, either foreclosure suits or suits over leases of construction equipment. Whether or not that sticks, though, there’s also an institutional disparity showing up in how state Dems are viewing him, versus how they’re viewing Charlie Crist’s independent candidacy: Palm Beach Co. Commissioner Burt Aaronson has gone public in wanting Chiles to get out the gubernatorial race while being fine with Crist staying in the Senate race.

• ME-Gov: This morning we linked to an article musing that moderate Maine Republicans might defect to the independent candidacy of Eliot Cutler, rather support the hard-right Paul LePage. Unfortunately, visions of cat fud dancing in our heads were dashed by a unity rally today where all six losing GOP candidates, even the decidedly moderate state Sen. Peter Mills, endorsed LePage.

• MI-Gov: There’s one more poll of the gubernatorial primaries in Michigan, this time for Inside Michigan Politics. On the GOP side, they find Peter Hoekstra leading at 21, followed by Rick Snyder at 15, Mike Cox and Mike Bouchard with 10 each, and Tom George at 1. The Democratic primary has Andy Dillon at 14 and Virg Bernero at 10, with a whopping 76% undecided.

• MN-Gov: The AFL-CIO has decided to follow the lead of the SEIU, and not make an endorsement in the Democratic primary, where a variety of labor-friendly candidates are competing.

• NH-01: I wonder if this is just personal animosity at work, or if there’s a larger story here? Manchester mayor Ted Gatsas endorsed in the GOP primary in the 1st, and rather than endorse his immediate mayoral predecessor (and presumed frontrunner) Frank Guinta, he backed Sean Mahoney instead.

• NY-20: Here’s some good news for Rep. Scott Murphy, who between strong fundraising and third-tier opposition, is already having a pretty good electoral cycle: he’s been endorsed for the Independence Party’s ballot line this year. It’s sharp contrast to neighboring Rep. Mike Arcuri, whose all-cycle-long woes just got added-to by the IP endorsement going to GOP opponent Richard Hanna.

• OH-13: According to the Fix, Tom Ganley is out with an internal poll from POS that gives him a 3-point lead (44-41) over Rep. Betty Sutton. I’m wondering about the date on the poll, though (which they don’t discuss), as there were rumblings all the way back in mid-February, when Ganley switched over from the Senate race where he was flailing in the GOP primary to the 13th, that Ganley had an internal poll giving him a 3-point lead (although that was the only detail given). Or, maybe he’s just polling verrrrrry consistently.

• SC-04: Big-time tension down at Bob Jones University! The school’s arts and sciences dean endorsed GOP primary challenger Trey Gowdy several months ago, but now the school’s former chancellor (and grandson of its founder) Bob Jones III has come out in support of incumbent Bob Inglis instead.

• AL-Ag Comm.: He might have lost the primary, but he won the media war, becoming a minor celebrity along the way thanks to his bizarre ad going viral. And now he’s back: third-place finisher Dale Peterson is endorsing John McMillan, and appearing in an ad where he not only touts McMillan but tells “that dummy” (presumably Dorman Grace) to go back to his chicken farm, and, for good measure, fires a shotgun at a no-good political-sign rustler.

• Louisiana: After a few years of doing it more or less normally, Louisiana is going back to its unique system of jungle primary and runoff for its federal-level races, starting in 2012. Supporters of the switch back say it’ll save money by not requiring separate primaries. (H/t Johnny Longtorso.)

• Polltopia: Today’s must read, if you haven’t seen it already, is a lengthy profile of Scott Rasmussen in the Washington Post. While it has some backstory on Rasmussen’s pre-polling days, the real meat here is a good rundown of what polling experts think Rasmussen may be doing wrong, and some interesting speculation on the future direction of the polling business.

Public Policy Polling (pdf) (6/12-13, likely voters, 4/1-5 in parens):

Pat Quinn (D-inc): 30 (33)

Bill Brady (R): 34 (43)

Rich Whitney (G): 9 (NA)

Undecided: 27 (24)

(MoE: ±4.2%)

If you have a 27/50 approval rating — as Illinois governor Pat Quinn currently does — that means you’re rather unlikely to win an election. There are a few other governors who are plumbing these depths of unpopularity, but they aren’t running for re-election (or in the case of Jim Gibbons, already got bounced in the primary).

Quinn should feel lucky that the GOP put their worst foot forward with Bill Brady, though, as he’d be probably be in unsalvageable territory against, say, Kirk Dillard. A majority have no opinion about Brady, and those who do are split at a tepid 22/22. That gives Quinn the opportunity to try and define Brady as too right-wing for Illinois, and, while it’s too much to hope that Brady can become as unpopular as Quinn, get him unpopular enough that Illinois’s Democratic lean can do the rest of the work. Quinn might also be heartened by the high performance for Rich Whitney (who, it should be noted, also polled in double digits against Rod Blagojevich in 2006 — but that wasn’t a close race, and anti-Blago Dems were free to cast protest votes). In a close race, strategic-minded left-leaning voters might sigh and decide to vote for Quinn, nose held, than waste a protest vote on Whitney, given the conservative alternative in Brady.

http://polibeast.blogspot.com/…

Roughly one month ago – can you believe how this summer is flying by? – I released a new set of U.S. Senate projections, giving Democrats a 53-47 seat edge over the GOP. Since then, we’ve had a boatload of primaries, a few more candidate scandals, and, yet, on the whole, my sentiment on Democratic strength remains about the same.

For the month of June, I’m opting to give the Dems a more narrow 52-48 hold upon the U.S. Senate. While such is hardly a cause for celebration, it’s also not a particularly catastrophic development, and, despite the closeness in tally, my suspicion is actually that the GOP’s climb to that magical 51-vote majority is in fact only getting steeper.

Why the contradiction? Well, before I delve into any specific, race-by-race analysis, let me first point out the races which have, over the course of the past month, either a) moved in ranking and/or b) flipped in favor of the other candidate.

Dem Upgrades:

CT-Sen – Lean Dem -> Likely Dem

FL-Sen – Toss-up (Rubio edge) -> Toss-up (Crist edge)

IL-Sen – Lean GOP -> Toss-up (Kirk edge)

LA-Sen – Safe GOP -> Likely GOP

NY-Sen (B) – Likely Dem -> Safe Dem

GOP Upgrades:

AZ-Sen – Likely GOP -> Safe GOP

IA-Sen – Likely GOP -> Safe GOP

IN-Sen – Toss-up (Ellsworth edge) -> Toss-up (Coats edge)

KY-Sen – Toss-up (Conway edge) -> Toss-up (Paul edge)

WI-Sen – Likely Dem -> Lean Dem

My suspicion is, while Republicans are very likely to win over a majority of so-called “toss-ups” come the fall, their odds of actually winning back the U.S. Senate are close to non-existent. I say this, because a few supposedly-vulnerable Dems – Richard Blumenthal and Kirsten Gillibrand in particular – are looking more and more unbeatable as the season rolls onward. For the GOP to claim victory, this cannot be the case. They can knock off Barbara Boxer, and that only gets them to 49. Have Marco Rubio eek out a victory, thus sweeping every single “toss-up,” and Joe Biden gets to break the 50-50 tie. After all of that, Republicans have two opportunities – in the form of Russ Feingold and Patty Murray – and boy, would that take the perfect storm.

In terms of explanation re: my aforementioned upgrades, let me do a quick run-down on each…

AZ-Sen: It strikes me as highly unlikely that J.D. Hayworth gives the boot to John McCain in this state’s upcoming GOP primary and, thus, I feel it’s prime time to move this into “safe” territory. Rodney Glassman isn’t a particularly bad Democratic candidate – against Hayworth, he could perhaps keep things somewhat competitive – but unless national Democrats can switch the overall narrative in their favor by the fall, it’s tough to see this randomly going blue.

CT-Sen: It doesn’t appear that the Vietnam hooplah over Attorney General Richard Blumenthal is sticking with Connecticut voters, and I suspect for GOP challenger Linda McMahon to have had a realistic shot at victory, she needed a far bigger bounce when that story was at its hottest. Now, the Blumenthal buzz has fizzled, and McMahon’s still trailing by about twenty points. Two factors keep me from moving this to Safe Dem: 1) Blumenthal is absolutely dreadful on the campaign stump and 2) there’s a very good chance Sen. Joe Lieberman backs McMahon. Still, this is looking like a huge stretch for Republicans.

FL-Sen: Even if Rep. Kendrick Meek survives his now-competitive primary vs. oddball businessman Jeff Greene, it’s looking awfully plausible, if not probable that Charlie Crist nets sizable support among registered Democrats come November. With Marco Rubio’s campaign feeling curiously-flat since Crist’s launch of an Independent bid, it doesn’t seem too far beyond the realm that the incumbent Governor can prevail, even in such an anti-incumbent cycle.

IA-Sen: Much like in Arizona, the Democrats have coalesced around an attractive candidate, attorney Roxanne Conlin, but there’s no reason to believe she can prevail in an environment which appears awfully cool to Democrats. Chuck Grassley isn’t the most popular guy out there, and it says something that I kept him out of “safe” territory for so long. Alas, until I see national Dems pumping money into this thing, I have to presume he is safe.

IL-Sen: With a new Public Policy Polling survey showing the Green Party candidate netting 14% in this race, it’s awfully difficult to attain a real grasp around this race. Both Republican Mark Kirk and Democrat Alexi Giannoulias are supremely unpopular, dogged by controversies which even trump Blumenthal’s, and with all of this lukewarm feeling, there’s speculation that third-party candidates could play a real factor. For now, I suspect Kirk can win in this particular cycle, and he’ll have to play by the Peter Fitzgerald book, used to trump Democrat Carol Moseley-Braun in the ’98 U.S. Senate race. Nonetheless, this has “toss-up” written all over it.

IN-Sen: With a sterling candidate like Brad Ellsworth, Democrats have a real shot at holding Evan Bayh’s seat, but, at least for the time being, I’m just not sensing the pro-Ellsworth excitement that’ll be necessary to prevail in a conservative-leaning state. Don’t get me wrong – Dan Coats is one very flawed candidate, and it’ll be a miracle if he can somehow connect with the Tea Party crowd. Alas, in this environment, and with the state’s conservative voting-streak, I have to give the slight (and I mean super-slight) edge to Coats.

KY-Sen: Much like Indiana, I suspect this one’s a legitimate barnburner, the GOP candidate is flawed, the Democrat is terrific, and, nonetheless, considering the state’s conservative nature, I suspect it’s simply less risky to side with the Republican. For now.

LA-Sen: As I wrote in a recent column, I think Democrat Charlie Melancon poses a real threat to incumbent Republican David Vitter, and, thus, I’m moving him up a bit in my rankings. The state’s conservative lean will continue to strain on Melancon’s chances of actually prevailing, but recent polling does show him surging quite a bit, and who knows what kind of political implications this disaster-plagued environment carries.

NY-Sen (B): This has been a decision in-the-making for quite a while now. While Kirsten Gillibrand’s re-election numbers are still a tad underwhelming, the New York GOP is so anemic and dysfunctional that it seems almost a joke to continue viewing her as vulnerable. To put it bluntly, the New York Republican Party just can’t get its shit together. All of the potential challengers – Bruce Blakeman, Joe DioGuardi, and David Malpass – are strictly third-rate material.

WI-Sen: Russ Feingold has a history of pulling out squeaker victories, and while I could just as easily say “I expect no less this time around,” the truth is, I think Feingold’s probably up in the high, comfortable single-digits. Still, the environment is just so anti-incumbent, and Wisconsin conservatives will always have it out for Feingold, an unabashed, albeit somewhat unpredictable liberal. I actually think Republicans caught a lucky break when the uber-establishment fmr. Gov. Tommy Thompson opted to pass on the race. At least here, they can mount an outsider.

Please feel free to comment upon and challenge my rankings. I’m sure many, for instance, will find themselves aghast at my prediction that Sharron Angle defeats Harry Reid. My full ranking run-down is, as follows…

D – 52

R – 48

Safe Dem (>20% victory) :

Hawaii – Sen. Daniel Inouye > GOP nominee (?)

Maryland – Sen. Barbara Mikulski > GOP nominee (?)

New York – Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand > GOP nominee (?)

New York – Sen. Charles Schumer > GOP nominee (?)

Oregon – Sen. Ron Wyden > law professor Jim Huffman

Vermont – Sen. Patrick Leahy > businessman Len Britton

Likely Dem (10-20% victory):

Connecticut – Attorney General Richard Blumenthal > WWE CEO Linda McMahon

Lean Dem (5-10% victory):

Washington – Sen. Patty Murray > fmr. State Sen. Dino Rossi

Wisconsin – Sen. Russ Feingold > GOP nominee (?)

Toss-up:

California – Sen. Barbara Boxer (D) > fmr. Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina (R)

Colorado – fmr. Lt. Gov. Jane Norton or District Attorney Ken Buck (R) > Sen. Michael Bennett or fmr. House Speaker Andrew Romanoff (D)

Florida – Gov. Charlie Crist (I) > fmr. House Speaker Marco Rubio (R) or Rep. Kendrick Meek (D)

Illinois – Rep. Mark Kirk (R) > State Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias (D)

Indiana – fmr. Sen. Dan Coats (R) > Rep. Brad Ellsworth (D)

Kentucky – eye surgeon Rand Paul (R) > Attorney General Jack Conway (D)

Missouri – Rep. Roy Blunt (R) > Secretary of State Robin Carnahan (D)

Nevada – fmr. Assemblywoman Sharron Angle (R) > Sen. Harry Reid (D)

Ohio – fmr. Rep. Rob Portman (R) > Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher (D)

Pennsylvania – fmr. Rep. Pat Toomey (R) > Rep. Joe Sestak (D)

Lean GOP (5-10% victory):

New Hampshire – Attorney General Kelly Ayotte > Rep. Paul Hodes

North Carolina – Sen. Richard Burr > fmr. State Sen. Cal Cunningham or Secretary of State Elaine Marshall

Likely GOP (10-20% victory):

Arkansas – Rep. John Boozman > Sen. Blanche Lincoln

Delaware – Rep. Mike Castle > New Castle County Executive Chris Coons

Louisiana – Sen. David Vitter > Rep. Charlie Melancon

Safe GOP (>20% victory):

Alabama – Sen. Richard Shelby > Attorney William Barnes

Alaska – Sen. Lisa Murkowski > Dem nominee (?)

Arizona – radio host JD Hayworth or Sen. John McCain > businessman Rodney Glassman

Georgia – Sen. Johnny Isakson > Dem nominee (?)

Idaho – Sen. Mike Crapo > businessman Tom Sullivan

Iowa – Sen. Chuck Grassley > Attorney Roxanne Conlin

Kansas – Rep. Jerry Moran or Rep. Todd Tihart > Dem nominee (?)

North Dakota – Gov. John Hoeven > State Sen. Tracy Potter

Oklahoma – Sen. Tom Coburn > Dem nominee (?)

South Carolina – Sen. Jim DeMint > military veteran Alvin Greene

South Dakota – Sen. John Thune > unopposed

Utah – businessman Tim Bridgewater or Attorney Mike Lee > businessman Sam Granato

http://polibeast.blogspot.com/…

CT-Sen: Despite having no shortage of cash, the Journal-Inquirer of north-central Connecticut says Paulist freakazoid Peter Schiff might be having trouble petitioning his way on to the ballot. What an ignominious end! Anyhow, we’ll know for sure by the end of this week. (Also, see our CT-04 bullet for another Nutmeg state petitioning debacle, only worse.) Meanwhile, Aaron Blake lays out some possible circumstances under which Rob Simmons’ zombie campaign might come back to life (though ultimately he thinks reanimation of this particular corpse is unlikely).

WI-Sen: I like what Russ Feingold is doing here: He’s putting his opponent, richie rich Ron Johnson, on the defensive by linking Johnson to Sharron Angle and Rand Paul, and charging that he hasn’t said whether he supports Social Security, Medicare, and the Civil Rights Act. Interestingly (at least according to Politico), Johnson’s spokesbot shot back with some pablum – and didn’t bother to say whether he does support any of these three pillars of modern society.

ME-Gov: An op-ed by George Smith in the Kennebec Journal suggests that environmental lawyer Eliot Cutler, running as an independent, could win Maine’s gubernatorial race. Cutler apparently has personal wealth, and Smith suggests he could split the GOP vote, earning the support of some of its more moderate members while the teabaggers stick with the very conservative Paul LePage. (And remember, Maine’s last governor before Dem John Baldacci was also an independent, Angus King.)

SC-Gov: So Politico has a piece claiming that the South Carolina GOP establishment, including the SC Chamber of Commerce, is going all-out to try to stop Nikki Haley from winning the run-off. But CNN notes that former First Lady Jenny Sanford is stumping for Haley, and of course third-place finisher and state AG Henry McMaster endorsed her as well.

AR-01: Dem Chad Causey is “in talks” about an endorsement with Tim Wooldridge, whom Causey beat 51-49 in the runoff.

AZ-08: Remember Randy Graf? If you don’t, all you need to know is that he craaazy. He also ran for this seat in 2006 and, after the NRCC abandoned him, got beat badly by now-Rep. Gabby Giffords. Anyhow, he endorsed veteran Jesse Kelly in the GOP primary, who was once touted but then got outshined by the later entrance of state Sen. Jonathan Paton.

CO-04: Man, I bet Cory Gardner really wishes Rep. Steve King would shut up. The other day, Gardner cancelled a fundraiser in Colorado with King after King declared that President Obama “favors the black person.” Now King is lambasting Gardner for spurning him – and claiming that Gardner agrees with what he said! Gardner of course disputes King’s claims. I don’t know if you can properly call this cat fud, but it sure smells like it.

CT-04: This sack is so very, very sad. Republican Tom Herrmann flushed his campaign down the toilet today like your kid’s dead goldfish, only there won’t be any trips to the pet store to buy a replacement. Turns out Herrmann’s campaign engaged in a little bit o’ ye olde petition fraud (something we mentioned the other day), meaning he won’t have enough valid signatures to qualify for the ballot. I admit that I was initially skeptical of this story, but it turned out that where there was smoke, there was indeed fire.

DE-AL: Republican Kevin Wade dropped out of the race, leaving Michele Rollins and Glen Urquhart to compete in the September primary. Wade endorsed neither, but touted Some Dude Rose Izzo.

LA-02: In a story about state Rep. Cedric Richmond formally kicking off his campaign, there’s a throwaway line suggesting that state Sen. Karen Carter Peterson is still considering a run. Carter Peterson (then known only as Karen Carter) lost badly to ex-Rep. Bill Jefferson in a 2006 run-off. She also infamously supported Republican Jim Tucker to be Speaker of the Louisiana House in 2007, over (of all people) Dem Don Cazayoux.

NC-08 (PDF): Damn, I hope PPP is wrong about this. They have Harold Johnson leading beautiful maniac Tim D’Annunzio 49-39 in the runoff (which takes place next week). Surely the Ark of the Covenant can help turn the tide for Timmy D, no?

ND-AL: Earl Pomeroy’s team did some nice work in getting a bullshit third-party ad yanked off the air. The spot accused Pomeroy of supporting healthcare taxes which led to lost jobs. The only problem(s): No new healthcare taxes have gone into effect yet, and the jobs in question related to reform of the student loan system, not healthcare. Yeah, whoops is right.

NY-13: Does the name Kieran Lalor ring a bell? He ran against Rep. John Hall in NY-19 in 2008 and got pasted. He’s resurfaced of late, but this time, he’s attacking a fellow Republican, Michael Allegretti. Lalor claims to represent a group of Iraq veterans, and he’s miffed that Allegretti has pictures of himself with members of the military on his website. Lalor’s hands are not exactly clean here, as his group’s own website has a picture of Allegretti’s opponent, Michael Grimm – whom Lalor says his organization will likely endorse.

NY-14: SEIU 32BJ, an important, 70,000-strong building workers union, endorsed Rep. Carolyn Maloney, citing her work in securing $4 billion in federal money for major east side transit projects.

PA-07: What a huge – and unforced – blunder. GOPer Pat Meehan tried to accuse Bryan Lentz of having been involved in the big “bonusgate” scandal (where Dem campaign workers were paid with state money). First problem: He had no such evidence, and the press (to their credit) had no trouble realizing this. Second mistake: He held his press conference in the state capitol – where the state legislature (of which Lentz is a member) is still in session. This meant that Lentz got to watch Meehan’s presser in person – and then when Meehan was done and the cameras were still rolling, Lentz strode up to the same podium and delivered a biting rebuttal to Meehan’s bullshit. Lentz’s impressive political skillz are matched only by Meehan’s lack thereof.

VA-05: Is there a word in English which expresses the idea that a debacle for one side is actually a boon for the other? No, it’s not schadenfreude, and it’s not crisitunity, either. But in any case, this is what seems to be brewing in VA-05, where the second-place finisher in the GO primary, Jim McKelvey, finally announced that he ain’t endorsing no one – at least, not yet. We can only hope he’ll give his backing to independent teabagger Jeffrey Clark rather than state Sen. Robert Hurt.

NRCC: The NRCC is setting a $20 million goal for its “Battleground” fundraising effort from members of its caucus. In 2008, their goal was $12 million, though it’s not clear whether they actually met it. In 2006, they started at $17.5 mil but later bumped it up to $22.5 mil.

I knew this was bullshit when I read it in February:

Lawmakers with direct ties to Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) operations say more members than usual are clinging to every dollar instead of paying their dues.

“The pressure will definitely ramp up in the spring,” a senior Democrat said. …

Leadership aides said the DCCC is right where it needs to be….

We’re days away from summer, and:

House Democratic lawmakers are holding onto their campaign cash despite pleas from the campaign committee for money to help the party, a reflection of the nervousness among incumbents.

Only 16 of the 254 members of the Democratic caucus have paid their full obligation to the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, according to a report obtained by The Associated Press. Of those, dozens have outstanding balances of at least $125,000.

Same old shit, except now we’re less than five months away from election day. And the DCCC is still pretending like nothing’s wrong – “A spokesman for the group played down the debts,” relates the AP – but I’d bet good money they are the very ones responsible for leaking their own dues spreadsheet to the media. Of course, what they won’t do is share that list with activists, who would actually put direct pressure on members of Congress to pay their dues. I guess they’d rather just be passive-aggressive about it.

Personally, I feel like we’ve seen an insufficiently partisan spine over at the D-Trip, ever since Chris Van Hollen took over last cycle. SSP readers are well aware of the treachery perpetrated by Red-to-Blue chair Debbie Wasserman-Schultz in 2008, which Van Hollen permitted under his watch. This cycle, Van Hollen’s apparent refusal to engage in bare-knuckled tactics to shake money out of his caucus is inexcusable. Rahm Emanuel would never have abided this.

• FL-Sen: Politico has a new FL-Sen piece provocatively titled “Democrats flirt with backing Charlie Crist,” but it points to some definitely solidifying conventional wisdom: that Crist, who has been steadily moving to the left in his independent bid, is becoming more appealing to local Dem power brokers as something of a de facto Dem candidate. This is especially the case if Jeff Greene, who has no base and a truckload of vulnerabilities, somehow spends his way into snatching the Dem nomination from Kendrick Meek. Along those lines, Crist‘s latest repositioning is on the issue of travel to Cuba, where he’d previously backed restrictions on travel and remittances but is now moving more in line with freer Democratic positions.

• NC-Sen: Elaine Marshall got an endorsement from MoveOn with less than a week to go until the Senate runoff against Cal Cunningham. It’s kind of late in the game, but MoveOn money may fund some last-minute ground-pounding.

• NV-Sen: Why do I have the feeling that Sharron Angle is going to get her own bullet every morning filled with the latest crazy revelations about her? I don’t even know where to begin: hot on the heels of revelations that she used to be a member of the right-wing Independent American Party in the 1990s (which she left because of political expedience to run for state Assembly) comes today’s revelations that in the 1980s she left the Republican Party at the height of the Reagan era to become a… Democrat? (She says she did so to help a conservative Dem with his state Senate campaign.) Well, now she can claim she’s tripartisan. Also from yesterday were, of course, revelations that in January of this year she floated the possibility of armed insurrection if Congress “keeps going the way it is.”

With the NRSC playing whack-a-mole with daily Angle bombshells, John Cornyn says he’ll be rolling her out verrrrrrry slowly… it’ll be “a few weeks” before she’s ready to take questions from the press. This comes on top of several stories about Cornyn’s more centrist colleagues cautiously distancing themselves from Angle, with Scott Brown and Olympia Snowe saying they aren’t getting involved, and Dick Lugar taking exception to most of her key action items. At least Jim DeMint is coming to her rescue, paying for some IEs on her behalf out of his PAC money.

• MI-Gov (pdf): Magellan’s out with another public poll of a Republican primary, this time in Michigan. They find Peter Hoekstra narrowly in the lead at 26, with Rick Snyder at 20, Mike Cox at 16, Mike Bouchard at 11, and Tom George at 2. Meanwhile, Cox seems to at least be winning the endorsement game; he got two more nods today, both from two of Hoekstra’s slightly more moderate House colleagues: Dave Camp and Thad McCotter. (Candice Miller, on the other hand, backed Hoekstra last week.)

• OR-Gov: Here’s quick about-face from John DiLorenzo, a Portland attorney who’d fronted himself six figures to launch an independent gubernatorial candidacy. Today he decided not to run after all; he had an interesting explanation, in that he felt that both Dem John Kitzhaber and GOPer Chris Dudley were moderate enough that there really wasn’t any room for him to carve out some space in the middle.

• NC-11: GOP nominee Jeff Miller is out with an internal poll from POS conducted several weeks ago that show him in somewhat competitive territory against Democratic Rep. Heath Shuler. The poll gives Shuler a 46-34 edge over Miller. Miller is on the wrong end of 10:1 cash advantage for Shuler, but just got a FreedomWorks endorsement which may help him gain some ground.

• NJ-06: It looks like the GOP primary in the 6th, the last race from Super Duper Tuesday not to be called, is finally over. Diane Gooch, the pre-primary favorite, at least based on her NRCC backing, conceded and said she won’t seek a recount. Anna Little finished 84 votes ahead of Gooch, who endorsed Little for the run against long-time Dem Rep. Frank Pallone.

• NY-24: Here’s one more big problem for endangered Rep. Mike Arcuri: GOP opponent Richard Hanna got the endorsement of the statewide Independence Party. There’s one catch, though; the Cayuga County Independence Party isn’t on board, and say they’d prefer to endorse Arcuri (and take great issue with the selection process, or lack thereof). It’s unclear for now how the state and county parties will resolve the dispute. Hanna got the 2008 IP line, which probably helped him keep things surprisingly close that year.

• OH-12: GOP Rep. Pat Tiberi was yesterday declared one of only nine GOPers who need continued financial support, largely because he’s facing a top-tier challenge from Franklin Co. Commissioner Paula Brooks. Brooks got a big fundraising boost today with an endorsement from EMILY’s List, which should help send some money in the direction of one of the few places where Dems are playing offense.

• TN-04: One more internal poll to report on, although it’s incredibly stale (from late March… however it was just brought to our attention, thanks to a tipster in the comments). A poll by Republican pollster OnMessage finds Rep. Lincoln Davis — a Dem in a terrible district but facing small-fry opposition — leads his two possible opponents, Scott DesJarlais and Jack Bailey, by identical 44-33 margins.

• UT-02: It sounds like the GOP is still maintaining hopes of monkeying around with the Dem primary in the 2nd, as there are subtle rumblings of efforts to get teabaggers to cross over and vote for very liberal (and probably unelectable in the general) Claudia Wright instead of Rep. Jim Matheson in the Dem primary. Somehow that doesn’t seem likely, though, considering that those same voters would probably like to have a say in the hard-fought and likely close Republican Senate primary between Mike Lee and Tim Bridgewater on the same day (June 22).

• WI-08: The crowd in the GOP field in the 8th is a little smaller; retired physician Marc Trager dropped out of the race, citing health reasons. He gave his backing to state Rep. Roger Roth, who still faces ex-state Rep. Terri McCormick, contractor Reid Ribble, and county supervisors Marc Savard and Andy Williams.

• VA-St. House: The GOP held seats in the state House of Delegates in two special elections last night, meaning they still control that chamber 59-39 (with 2 GOP-leaning indies). Both were in fairly red territory, but the Dems had felt they had a potentially strong candidate in HD-15 in Harrisonburg mayor Kai Degner. Degner lost to Tony Wilt, 66-34. In Chesterfield County in Richmond’s suburbs, Roxanne Robinson beat William Brown with 72%.

Whatever happened in the Senate primary,the fact is that South Carolina, has an unverifiable and therefore unacceptable voting system.

http://blog.verifiedvoting.org…

A few key quotes from the statement:

Whether specific reports of irregularities in this election are confirmed, the most important fact about South Carolina’s voting system is that most ballots cannot be effectively audited or recounted. Serious concerns about the integrity of the primary (and of other elections conducted using the same technology) are inevitable, and legitimate.

SNIP

We support calls for the forensic investigation of available records in the South Carolina primary, and urge that such records be preserved in the same way that paper ballots are retained for examination for a sufficient period of time post-election.  However, like in Sarasota County, absent evidence of voter intent the ultimate findings may still not be sufficient to generate confidence in the outcome of this contest.

SNIP

Whatever the outcome, we strongly urge citizens and policymakers in the state and in the nation at large to use this moment to insist on their right to voting systems that demonstrate trustworthiness rather than demand trust. Congressman Rush Holt’s and Senator Bill Nelson’s Voter Confidence and Increased Accessibility Act would require that all Federal elections employ a system of paper ballots marked by the voter, with random hand-counted audits to check electronic tallies of the ballots. There has never been a better time for Congress to pass this critically needed legislation. The voters and the public deserve no less.

Elway Poll (6/9-13, registered voters, 4/29-5/2 in parens):

Patty Murray (D-inc): 47 (51)

Dino Rossi (R): 40 (34)

Undecided: 13 (15)

Patty Murray (D-inc): 47 (50)

Paul Akers (R): 33 (26)

Undecided: 20 (24)

Patty Murray (D-inc): 46 (50)

Clint Didier (R): 32 (24)

Undecided: 22 (26)

(MoE: ±5%)

Elway’s last poll of the Washington Senate race, taken before Dino Rossi made his entry official, had seemed a little optimistic; a 17-point lead is pretty showy in a state where a Republican is guaranteed at least 40% in a statewide race just for showing up (but where 50% is nearly impossible). A 7-point lead is very plausible.

I’d be curious to see Elway (or anyone else… maybe PPP will finally poll Washington?) take a look at the Republican primary, which in the wake of the robust showing for support for Clint Didier at the state convention last weekend and the ‘meh’ that greeted Dino Rossi, looks like it could turn very interesting. (OK, the “top two” primary, which would require polling Murray, Rossi, Didier, and Paul Akers all in one big pile.) In fact, with a Sarah Palin endorsement boosting him, Beltway Republicans are actually starting to have to take notice of Didier: he’s going to be meeting in DC this week with staff from the RNC and the NRSC (which just finished laboriously recruiting Rossi into the race).

UPDATE: Apparently Elway has polled the “top two” primary as well, but those numbers didn’t start making the rounds until later today. The results (bearing in mind that all candidates are thrown together in one pool) are: Murray 43, Rossi 31, Didier 5, and Akers 2. For those who don’t like to do their own math, that combined GOP vote is 38. Didier is also out with a breathless tweet today announcing that he just met Ron Paul today while in DC! It was teh awesome! It makes him “want to fight harder for Liberty!” (Well, except for Liberty from all those farm subsidies…)

I wanted to take a look at what redistricting might look like in three Southern states (Alabama, Louisiana, and Maryland) with large black populations if, within each state, three VRA districts were created. Right now, Alabama has one VRA district, Louisiana has one, and Maryland has two; this diary has maps that raise that number to three in each state. I also wanted to take a look at what the political implications of this would be on a state-by-state basis; would Democrats be hurt or helped by such plans? Please read on to find out more and leave your comments and feedback as well. Thanks!

Alabama

Statewide Map

District 1 (Blue): South Alabama-Mobile, Dothan, Montgomery

Demographics: 83% white, 11% black

This is a strongly Republican district that picks up the white parts of South Alabama and then snakes up north past Montgomery. Incumbent 1st district GOP Rep. Jo Bonner would easily win in this district.

District 2 (Green): South/East Alabama-Dothan, Montgomery, Troy, Auburn

Demographics: 48% black, 48% white (black plurality)

This district picks up black areas in South Alabama and Montgomery, and then goes northward all the way to Anniston. This district should be Democratic due to a slight black plurality. While current 2nd district Democratic Rep. Bobby Bright would probably love to have a district like this, he might be vulnerable to a black challenger in a Democratic primary.

District 3 (Purple): East Alabama and Birmingham suburbs/exurbs-Birmingham

Demographics: 85% white, 10% black

This is a very Republican district that essentially combines the eastern half of the current 6th district (Birmingham suburbs and exurbs) with the mostly-white and rural northern areas of the current 3rd district. The homes of two incumbent GOP congressmen, 6th district Rep. Spencer Bacchus (from Vestavia Hills in Jefferson County) and 3rd district Rep. Mike Rogers (from Saks in Calhoun County) are both in this district so they would likely face off in a primary that I think Bacchus would be favored to win.

District 4 (Red): North Alabama-Florence, Madison, Huntsville, Albertville, Gadsden

Demographics: 87% white, 6% black

This is an extremely Republican district in North Alabama that has some of Obama’s worst areas and would be easily won by the probable congressman for the current 5th district after the 2010 elections, Republican Mo Brooks of Huntsville.

District 5 (Yellow): Southwest Alabama-Mobile, Selma, Greenville, Tuscaloosa

Demographics: 51% black, 46% white

This district takes in many of the non-Birmingham areas of the current 7th district in what is known as the Black Belt, and it now reaches down all the way into Mobile. This district has a black majority and would be an open seat almost certainly won by a black Democrat.

District 6 (Teal): Northwest Alabama, Birmingham suburbs/exurbs-Birmingham, Tuscaloosa, Cullman

Demographics: 88% white, 6% black

This would be a safe GOP district that merges the western halves of the current 4th and 6th districts and would likely be won by Republican Congressman Robert Aderholt, who lives in Winston County.

District 7 (Gray): Urban Birmingham and North Alabama-Birmingham, Gadsden, Huntsville, Florence

Demographics: 53% black, 41% white

This black-majority district brings the number of VRA districts in Alabama to three by picking up urban Birmingham and then snaking through North Alabama into Gadsden, Huntsville, and Florence. It will be represented by a black Democrat, probably either Teri Sewell or Shelia Smoot.

So overall, Democrats will likely gain from this map. While it essentially closes the door on ever winning any of the 4 white majority districts (all of which are now at least 85% white), it creates 3 districts that should easily fall into Democratic control, unlike the current map, which really only has one safe district for Democrats (the 7th district). So we would see a likely change from either 5R-2D (Bright wins in 2010) or 6R-1D (Bright loses in 2010) to 4R-3D.

Louisiana

Statewide Map

District 1 (Blue): East Louisiana-Baton Rouge, Hammond, Kenner, New Orleans

Demographics: 80% white, 11% black, 6% Hispanic

This is a very conservative and Republican district that picks up white areas between New Orleans and Baton Rouge. Incumbent GOP Reps. Bill Cassidy and Steve Scalise would face off in this district’s Republican primary, and it is about half and half of each of their old districts so neither would really have the advantage of incumbency.

District 2 (Green): South Louisiana and New Orleans-New Orleans, Hammond, Houma

Demographics: 52% black, 39% white

This is essentially a successor to the current black-majority 2nd district, although it must expand south and west to make up for severe population loss from Hurricane Katrina. It retains a black majority, and will easily elect a black Democrat, probably either Cedric Richmond or Juan LaFonta, to Congress.

District 3 (Purple): South Louisiana-New Orleans, Houma, Lafayette

Demographics: 80% white, 12% black

This district has many of the white Cajun areas in the current 3rd district, but now extends to the west to pick up much of Lafayette. This district would likely elect a Republican simply due to its overwhelming whiteness, although there would be a fight in the Republican primary between Hugh Downer of Houma, who will likely be the GOP Rep. for the 3rd district following the 2010 elections, and 7th district Rep. Charles Boustany, whose Lafayette base is now in the 3rd district.

District 4 (Red): West and North Louisiana-Lake Charles, Alexandria, Shreveport, Monroe

Demographics: 82% white, 12% black

This district is intertwined with the new black-majority 5th district, taking up white areas in Western and Northern Louisiana and ending up with only 3 whole parishes, the rest of the parishes in the district being shared with neighboring districts. GOP congressmen Rodney Alexander of Alexandria and John Fleming of Minden (in Webster Parish near Shreveport) would have to battle it out in a Republican primary that Alexander would be favored to win, although either would easily hold the seat in a general election in this heavily white and Protestant district.

District 5 (Yellow): West and North Louisiana-Lake Charles, Alexandria, Nachitoches, Shreveport, Monroe

Demographics: 51% black, 45% white

This new black-majority district snakes around the Mississippi and Arkansas borders and then stretches down all the way to Lake Charles, picking up many black precincts along the way. Perhaps former Congressman Cleo Fields would give it a try in this district, although any black Democrat would be favored to win.

District 6 (Teal): East and South Louisiana-New Iberia, Lafayette, Baton Rouge, Slidell

Demographics: 52% black, 44% white

This is the third black-majority district in the state, taking the black areas of Baton Rouge and Lafayette and the snaking along the border with Mississippi and then all the way down to St. Tammany Parish. It would probably be won by a black Democrat from Baton Rouge or Lafayette.

So Louisiana is another state where Democrats would benefit from having 3 black-majority districts. The balance of power would shift from 6R-1D to 3D-3R, a three seat loss for the Republicans and a two seat gain for the Democrats.

Maryland

Statewide Map

Baltimore Area Map

D.C. Area Map

District 1 (Blue): Eastern Shore and Baltimore, Harford, and Anne Arundel Counties-Annapolis, Aberdeen, Eaton, Salisbury

Demographics: 74% white, 19% black

2008 pres. results: 50% McCain-48% Obama

By trading heavily Republican suburban areas in Baltimore and Harford Counties with the 2nd district for Democratic areas in Baltimore and Anne Arundel Counties, this district becomes much more Democratic. While John McCain still narrowly won this district, Frank Kratovil would have no trouble winning this district as it is now mostly limited to Democratic areas and his base on the Eastern Shore.

District 2 (Green): Anne Arundel, Calvert, Harford, and Baltimore Counties-Annapolis, Bowie, Dundalk, Bel Air

Demographics: 86% white, 7% black

2008 pres. results: 59% McCain-39% Obama

This is now a heavily Republican district around Annapolis and Baltimore, a result of the creation of a third black-majority district. It was simply not possible to maintain a Democratic 2nd district and still have the three black-majority districts without threatening Democratic control of the 3rd district. As a result, this district was disproportionately packed with Republicans and gave John McCain a 20% margin of victory. We might finally say hello to Congressman Andy Harris, although he would likely be the only GOP member of Congress from Maryland.

District 3 (Purple): Baltimore, Howard, Montgomery, and Carroll Counties-Gaithersburg, Columbia, Westminster, Towson, Baltimore

Demographics: 69% white, 15% black, 8% Asian, 5% Hispanic

2008 pres. results: 56% Obama-42% McCain

This is a new district that stretches from Montgomery County all the way up to the Pennsylvania border. Both John Sarbanes and Dutch Ruppersberger would likely run in the Democratic primary in this district in order to stay in Congress, although they might split the Baltimore vote, allowing someone from Montgomery or Howard Counties to slip through. A Democrat should win here nonetheless.

District 4 (Red): Frederick, Carroll, and Montgomery Counties-Frederick, Westminster, Rockville, Gaithersburg

Demographics: 66% white, 12% Hispanic, 10% Asian, 10% black

2008 pres. results: 58% Obama-40% McCain

This map is not all bad news for Democrats, as GOP Rep. Roscoe Bartlett sees his Republican district split in half and replaced with two districts where Obama received 59% of the vote. The new 4th district combines most of the current 8th district’s portion of very Democratic Montgomery County with parts of Frederick and Carroll Counties. It has 8th district Rep. Chris Van Hollen’s home in Kensington and Van Hollen could easily defeat the very conservative Bartlett (who would also be 86 years old by Election Day 2012) in this Democratic district.

District 5 (Yellow): Montgomery, Prince George’s, Charles, Calvert, and St. Mary’s Counties-La Plata, Waldorf, Clinton

Demographics: 55% black, 33% white, 7% Hispanic

2008 pres. results: 78% Obama-21% McCain

The first of Maryland’s black majority districts, half of this super-Democratic district is made up of areas from Democratic Rep. Donna Edwards’ current 4th district and Chris Van Hollen’s 8th district, while the other half of the district comes from Democratic Rep. Steny Hoyer’s current 5th district. This new district is 56% black and contains Edwards’ base in Prince George’s County, although it also has Steny Hoyer’s base in Southern Maryland and the House Majority Leader would no doubt be difficult to topple in a primary. I think a primary would be very competitive between the two incumbents, so Edwards might decide to instead run in the new black-majority 8th district.

District 6 (Teal): Panhandle and Frederick, Montgomery, and Prince George’s Counties-Cumberland, Hagerstown, Frederick, College Park

Demographics: 65% white, 14% black, 12% Hispanic, 6% Asian

2008 pres. results: 59% Obama-39% McCain

This district is the second nail in the coffin for Roscoe Bartlett. The conservative rednecks living in the Panhandle are placed in the same district as liberal voters in Prince George’s and Montgomery Counties, and the University of Maryland’s campus in College Park is placed in the district as well. While Van Hollen’s home is in the 4th district, he could easily run here and win, even against Roscoe Bartlett. Former 8th liberal Republican Rep. Connie Morrella would have likely defeated Van Hollen here in 2002 though. I really don’t know which of these two districts Van Hollen and Bartlett would run in, but I think they would both elect Democrats.

District 7 (Gray): Baltimore City and Baltimore and Anne Arundel Counties-Baltimore

Demographics: 55% black, 38% white

2008 pres. results: 80% Obama-18%  McCain

This black-majority district takes up nearly all of Baltimore City and some surrounding areas. It is very Democratic and would retain Democratic Rep. Elijah Cummings as its representative.

District 8 (Lavender): Baltimore City and Baltimore, Howard, Anne Arundel, Prince George’s, and Montgomery Counties-Baltimore, Columbia, Laurel, Bowie, Greenbelt

Demographics: 55% black, 29% white, 8% Hispanic, 6% Asian

2008 pres. results: 84% Obama-15% McCain

This is the third black-majority district in the state as well as Obama’s best district, picking up black areas in between Prince George’s County and Baltimore. While Democratic Rep. Donna Edwards might choose to run here rather than face Steny Hoyer in a primary, it would likely be an open seat won by a black Democrat.

So it is definitely possible to make three black-majority districts in Maryland. However, would this plan necessarily result in three black representatives being elected? Districts 7 and 8 would easily elect black congressmen, although Steny Hoyer might continue to win in the 5th district despite its new black-majority due to significant establishment support. The three black-majority districts are not an obstacle to toppling Roscoe Bartlett, although they must sacrifice either John Sarbanes or Dutch Ruppersberger. The change after redistricting would be minimal, going from a 7D-1R (Kratovil wins in 2010) or 6D-2R (Kratovil loses in 2010) split to a probable 7D-1R split (assuming Kratovil wins the 1st district seat). Despite the lack of a change in partisan balance under this map, Democrats would probably want to avoid forcing Hoyer into a tough primary and losing Sarbanes or Ruppersberger, so this is one state where three black-majority districts would be a bad thing for Democrats.

Thanks for reading and please leave your comments and feedback!