Month: July 2010

Mason-Dixon (7/12-14, likely voters, 6/1-3 in parens)

Rory Reid (D): 36 (37)

Brian Sandoval (R): 47 (51)

Other: 3 (1)

None of these: 7 (1)

Undecided: 7 (10)

(MoE: ±4%)

Sandoval’s lead is down from 14 points to 11, but it’s not like Rory’s made any kind of gain – rather, everyone’s favorite candidate, “none of these,” is the beneficiary of Sandoval’s drop. Still, there ain’t nothin’ wrong with winnin’ ugly, and if none-of-the-above helps Rory win what is still a major uphill battle, I’m sure he won’t be complaining.

NV-03 (4/5-7 in parens):

Dina Titus (D-inc): 42 (44)

Joe Heck (R): 40 (49)

Other: 5 (N/A)

None of these: 4 (N/A)

Undecided: 9 (7)

(MoE: ±5%)

That’s actually a pretty steep drop for Mighty Joe Heck, and there’s no clear explanation for it. Pollster Brad Coker claims Heck got a bounce last time around (which, you’ll note, was all the way back in April) thanks to Titus’s support for the just-passed healthcare reform bill. Color me skeptical. I’ll note that M-D seemed to alter its methodology in the interm, apparently prompting now for “other” and “none.” All of Heck’s shrinkage can be attributed to the appearance of these alternate options. Once again, it looks like Nevada’s quirky none-of-the-above feature might wind up doing Dems a big favor here.

Writing at POLITICO, Maggie Haberman profiles Democratic women challenging incumbent Republicans in the State Senate, and notes that The Year of the Woman Hits New York:

The Year of the Woman candidate has arrived in New York for the 2010 cycle, with an unprecedented slate of 10 female hopefuls vying for legislative office on the Democratic side in a state known as politically progressive but lagging at the state level.

With help from EMILY’s List over the last few years, the state Senate Democrats now have 10 women competing in districts ranging from swing-county Suffolk in Long Island to more rural areas of upstate New York.

“I think it is reflective of a larger pattern throughout the country,” said state Sen. Liz Krueger (D-Manhattan), who is the recruitment chair for the political arm of the Senate Democrats. “Women in both parties throughout the country are looking at who’s in office and saying, ‘Oh hell, I can do better than that!'”

Women make up 52% of the population in New York State. So it’s shameful that only 16% (just 10 out of 62) of our state senators are women. The slate of women candidates run by the New York Senate Dems could double the number of women serving in the state senate, and clear the way for progress on a host of issues including ethics reform and marriage equality. But what these women bring to the table goes far beyond reform and social issues that have defined past campaigns by women.

The slate of candidates looking to unseat 1/3 or the republican conference demonstrate a strong a track record of economic achievement around which they are focusing their campaigns.  These women created jobs at the county level; they increased investment in green jobs; they even took on Wall Street giants – and won.  They’re fighting not only to end the dysfunction in Albany, but to put our state back on sound economic footing

“I think what sets these women apart is they’re accomplished in their own rights and own careers and now want to turn their attentions [to government],” said state Sen. Jeff Klein, adding that those running are not being pigeonholed into campaigning on what are typically considered “women’s issues,” a fate that has befallen some other female Empire State candidates.

This election cycle, the stakes have never been higher.  Democrats hold a razor-thin, one vote majority in the State Senate.  The outcome of these races will determine how effective we are at moving a Democratic Agenda in 2011 and putting our state back on track.

As Susan Savage, the Democratic challenger to 34-year incumbent Hugh Farley, says – “We’re not going to change Albany until we change the people that we send to Albany.” With your help, these women will unseat Republican obstructionists who created Albany’s corrupt culture, help revive our economy, and give New Yorkers the government they deserve.

Below is a quick look at the New York Senate Dems class of women challengers.  Click the links for more information, or to join and contribute to their campaigns.

Susan Savage – Chair of the Schenectady County Legislature, she created thousands of jobs and brought millions in investments into the county.  She is challenging 34-year incumbent Hugh Farley in the 44th Senate District.

Joanne Yepsen – As Saratoga County Supervisor, Joanne Yepsen held down local taxes and helped local businesses. She is now challenging Joe Bruno’s hand-picked-successor, Roy McDonald, in the 43rd Senate District.

Didi Barrett – A leader in the non profit world for decades, and a strong advocate for women in New York, Didi Barrett is challenging 20-year incumbent Steve Saland in the 41st Senate District, the seat once held by FDR.

Mary Wilmot – As Regional Director for the Governor and the New York State Senate, Wilmot has extensive knowledge of the challenges Upstate New York faces, and she is determined to revitalize New York’s economy through investments in clean energy.  Wilmot is challenging 14-year incumbent James Alesi in the 55th Senate District.

Robin Wilt – As community activist, real estate agent, and small business owner, Wilt has seen first-hand the economic challenges facing Monroe County. She is the co-founder of the Genesee Valley chapter of Progressive Democrats of America, and is challenging seven-year incumbent Joe Robach.

Regina Calcaterra – A corporate fraud lawyer who took on Wall Street and won, Regina Calcaterra is now taking the fight to thirty-four-year incumbent Ken LaValle in Suffolk County’s 1st Senate District.

Kathleen Joy – Syracuse Common Counselor-At-Large and Majority Leader Kathleen Joy has a record promoting green infrastructure.  She’s now challenging 18-year incumbent, and self-described GOP “pit bull” John DeFrancisco in the 50th Senate Distirct.

Cynthia Appleton – A three-term Warsaw, Appleton has first-hand experience with the impact of Albany’s dysfunction at the local level, and is ready to clean up the capital.  She is running for the open seat vacated by retiring Republican Senator Dale Volker.

Pam Mackesey – As a union organizer, she witnessed first-hand the struggles that everyday Shuyler, Steuben, and Chemung county residents face, Pam Mackesey is determined to defeat six-year incumbent George Winner in the 53rd Senate District.

Carol Gordon – As a Mental Health Clinic Manager and Patient Advocate at the Department of Veterans Affairs, Carol Gordon served our veterans for 25 years.  Now she is challenging twelve-year incumbent Charle’s Fuschillo in the 8th Senate District.

Disclosure: I am the New York Senate Dems’ New Media Director.

Below are my death-defying, shark jumping Senate predictions.  Same method as my Governor predictions of days ago.  Only one major change from my prior Senate predictions, which is Harry Reid jumping out to a strong lead over Sharron Angle.  This leaves Democrats down two Senate seats, with Republicans picking up AR, CO, DE, IN, and ND, and Dems picking up FL, KY, and MO.  It is not lost on me that this is a very optimistic prediction, but it is what I really think is going to happen in my completely biased, die-hard Democratic little head.

AK – Murkowski (R) 60, McAdams (D) 34 – Would love to see GOP primary polling here.

AL – Shelby (R) 64, Barnes (D) 36 – Shelby will not need to break into his eight figure war chest.

AR – Boozman (R) 54, Lincoln (D) 43 – Lincoln has lots of $$$ and still a lot of Dems in AR.

AZ – McCain (R) 56, Glassman (D) 40 – McCain’s primary troubles have all but faded away.

CA – Boxer (D) 51, Fiorina (R) 45 -Boxer Q2 fundraising gives me confidence.

CO – Buck (R) 50, Bennet (D) 47 – Colorado still a pretty conservative state.

CT – Blumenthal (D) 56, McMahon (R) 43 – Blumenthal’s troubles way behind him.

DE – Castle (R) 53, Coons (D) 46 – Would love to see some GOP primary polling here.

FL – Crist (I) 42, Rubio (R) 39, Greene (D) 17 – Crist Q2 fundraising as an Indy was lights out.

GA – Isakson (R) 56, Thurmond (D) 42 – Barnes at top of ticket helps Thurmond keep it respectable.

HI – Inouye (D) 65, Roco (R) 33 – Should be no trouble for Inouye.

IA – Grassley (R) 57, Conlin (D) 42 – Strong recruit but not the year to take out Grassley.

ID – Crapo (R) 68, Sullivan (D) 30 – Crapo may break 70% here.

IL – Giannoulias (D) 49, Kirk (R) 45 – What a couple of pieces of work these guys are.

IN – Coats (R) 55, Ellsworth (D) 43 – Ellsworth Q2 fundraising was pretty lame.

KS – Moran (R) 64, Johnston (D) 33 – Johnston the surprising Dem primary leader.

KY – Conway (D) 50, Paul (R) 47 – Could Paul be any clearer that he doesn’t give a rip about the working man?

LA – Vitter (R) 48, Melancon (D) 47 – Third party conservative candidates keep this one very close.

MD – Mikulski (D) 64, Wargotz (R) 34 – Polling confirms big Mikulski lead.

MO – Carnahan (D) 51, Blunt (R) 48 – Classic close MO election.  Carnahan cleans up in KC and STL.

NC – Burr (R) 51, Marshall (D) 46 – Libertarian candidate helps keep this pretty close.

ND – Hoeven (R) 66, Potter (D) 32 – Hoeven could break 70% in an open seat race.

NH – Ayotte (R) 53, Hodes (D) 42 – Hodes has shown very little promise as a statewide candidate so far.

NV – Reid (D) 49, Angle (R) 41 – I never imagined Angle would be THIS much of a gift.

NY (A) – Schumer (D) 65, Townsend (R) 34 – Polling confirms big Schumer lead.

NY (B) – Gillibrand (D) 60, DioGuardi (R) 39 – Gillibrand taking nothing for granted with big Q2 haul.

OH – Portman (R) 49, Fisher (D) 48 – Why can’t Fisher raise money?  Is it all going to Strickland?

OK – Coburn (R) 68, Miles (D) 30 – At least we found some dudes to run against Coburn.

OR – Wyden (D) 59, Huffman (R) 39 – Polling looking good for Wyden after some scary Ras numbers.

PA – Sestak (D) 51, Toomey (R) 46 – Huge Q2 haul for Toomey a little daunting.  Pick it up, Joe!

SC – Demint (R) 74, Greene (D) 18, Clements (G) 8 – What … a … fiasco.

SD – Thune (R) unopposed – How could SD Dems not find a warm body to face freshman Thune?

UT – Lee (R) 65, Granato (D) 33 – Dems won’t be making any noise in Utah this cycle.

VT – Leahy (D) 61, Britton (R) 35 – Third party progressive candidates only thing keeping it this close.

WA – Murray (D) 51, Rossi (R) 47 – Wonder if Didier is making any headway in the primary.

WI – Feingold (D) 51, Johnson (R) 48 – We all love Feingold, but was he ever the best fit for WI?

WV – Manchin (D) 62, Ireland (R) 38 – May be generous to Ireland.  Capito sounds afraid to run.

IL-Sen: Undoubtedly Alexi Giannoulias wishes this kind of thing happened every week: Barack Obama is coming to town for a fundraiser on August 5th.

PA-Sen: The Philly Inquirer has a good look at Pat Toomey’s attempted “moderate” makeover. He’s doing a fundraiser with Susan Collins, who was lambasted last year by the Club for Growth – Toomey’s old group – as “Comrade of the Month” for her stimulus vote. He’s also getting the support of a former Specter chief-of-staff (who “stayed loyal” to his old boss when he became a Dem), and perhaps most famously, came out in favor of Sonia Sotomayor’s confirmation to the SCOTUS. The real question is, will this stick? Or will Joe Sestak be able to show Toomey for the ultra-conservative he really is?

WV-Sen: This is unexpected: The West Virginia legislature, called into a special session specifically for the purpose of amending the state’s elections laws, recessed yesterday without taking any action. Apparently, the two houses are still ironing out differences. (Remind me why we need bicameral state legislatures?) The Secretary of State’s office says that it thinks it has time to hold a special election this fall if a bill passes today, but that timetable may be in doubt if lawmakers tarry any longer. Gov. Joe Manchin could also rely on a state AG opinion and schedule a special even if the lege fails to act – but he might also do nothing, meaning Carte Goodwin could serve past November.

AL-Gov: Artur Davis is determined to be remembered as the Asshole of Alabama. Despite endorsing Ron Sparks in his concession speech, Artur Douchebag spewed a bunch of right-wang talking points about his former opponent – and also went out of his way to praise Republican candidate Robert Bentley. Ooh, ArturD2, I definitely see some phat lobbying jobs in your future – and maybe a seat on a deficit commission some day. Stay douchey!

MN-Gov: GOP nominee Tom Emmer really stepped in some serious shit when he suggested that the minimum wage should be revoked for waiters in Minnesota – and that he had heard of servers making over $100,000 a year. So to make reparations, he held… I guess, not a town hall but a dining hall hall with restaurant workers, who were mostly annoyed by his refusal to get specific. (Said one: “I didn’t know of him before this. I know him now. And I don’t like him.”) But it all came to an abrupt end when activist Nick Espinosa dumped a couple thousand pennies on Emmer’s table, barking “Here’s your tip!”

NY-01: Stay nasty, boys. Randy Altschuler is sending out mailers attacking rival Chris Cox for his support of Dede Scozzafava and Charlie Crist.

NY State Sen: You may remember Pedro Espada as the “Democrat” who spearheaded last year’s attempted coup by Republicans in the state Senate. In addition to being a scumbag under federal investigation, he’s also been targeted by the Working Families Party, who say that his defeat in the September primary is their “No. 1, No. 2 and No. 3 priority.” To that end, they’ve been aiding Jose Gustavo River, a former aide to Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand. On top of that, Bill Samuels, a bigtime Dem donor, is pledging to spend $250K to boot Espada. Let’s hope it happens!

Public Policy Polling (7/10-12, Maryland voters):

Martin O’Malley (D-inc): 45

Bob Ehrlich (R): 42

Undecided: 12

(MoE: ±4.1%)

This poll is already a few days out of the oven, but we’re clearing out some older inventory from the SSP Bake Shop at bargain prices.

On balance, I’d say this poll is pretty good news for Ehrlich. The former Governor is enjoying stronger support from his own party than O’Malley is, losing only 6% of the Republican vote to O’Malley and taking 21% of Democrats. O’Malley only has a 60% favorable rating from his own party, which doesn’t bode particularly well for ginning up base excitement in the fall. Moreover, PPP’s likely voter universe supported Obama over McCain by 59-36, meaning the needle barely budged from 2008. If anything, this could possibly be a more optimistic snapshot of the 2010 electorate than will actually be the case. In O’Malley’s favor, at least Ehrlich isn’t universally beloved by any means — his favorables are running perfectly even with his unfavorables at 39-39.

On a brighter note, at least Barbara Mikulski is slamming the competition:

Barbara Mikulski (D-inc): 58

James Rutledge (R): 30

Undecided: 12

Barbara Mikulski (D-inc): 59

Eric Wargotz (R): 27

Undecided: 14

(MoE: ±4.1%)

So the mood has struck me to update my always very specific and always very speculative governor predictions.  For those of you scoring at home, there is not much science to this.  I used 2004 exit poll data to guess at the partisan composition of each state, and then allocated percentages to each candidate by party.  Then I did some simple arithmetic and came up with the numbers that you see below.  I used 2004 because it was the last year with crappy Dem turnout where exit polls were available for every state.  I tried my best to estimate what percentage of the vote would go to minor third party candidates by looking at historical data.  Any difference between the sum of the numbers listed below and 100 should be attributed to minor third party candidates.

Overall, I have a whopping 17 seats changing hands.  But it is a tempest in a teapot, with only one net seat going to the Republicans.  The eight Dem pickups are CA, CT, FL, GA, HI, MN, RI, and VT.  The nine GOP pickups are IA, IL, KS, MI, OK, PA, TN, WI, and WY.

AK – Parnell (R) 62, Berkowitz (D) 37 – Berkowitz is the best AK Dems have, but Parnell is popular.

AL – Bentley (R) 56, Sparks (D) 44 – Same story – strong Dem recruit may be wasted on tough year.

AR – Beebe (D) 63, Keet (R) 35 – Beebe has weathered the storm better than any Dem governor.

AZ – Brewer (R) 53, Goddard (D) 42 – Brewer suddenly the belle of the ball; she has clear momentum.

CA – Brown (D) 49, Whitman (R) 46 – Will be soul crushing if Whitman successfully buys this election.

CO – Hickenlooper (D) 52, McInnis (R) 43 – Hoping McInnis survives.  Hick in good shape if he does.

CT – Lamont (D) 52, Foley (R) 47 – Don’t have a lot of faith in Lamont, but it’s a very blue state.

FL – Sink (D) 44, Scott (R) 42, Chiles (I) 12 – Rick Scott should be behind bars.

GA – Barnes (D) 50, Handel (R) 46 – Repubs may kneecap themselves again by nominating an idiot.

HI – Abercrombie (D) 55, Aiona (R) 43 – This should be a sure Dem pickup, knock on wood.

IA – Branstad (R) 55, Culver (D) 43 – Too much bad polling out there for it to be a fluke.

ID – Otter (R) 57, Allred (D) 40 – Allred running strong at the top of the ticket will help Minnick.

IL – Brady (R) 47.2, Quinn (R) 46.8 – Quinn extremely unpopular, but Brady not an ideal candidate.

KS – Brownback (R) 61, Holland (D) 37 – Competes with Wyoming for easiest GOP pickup.

MA – Patrick (D) 46, Baker (R) 42, Cahill (I) 9 – Polls are encouraging here.

MD – O’Malley (D) 51, Ehrlich (R) 47 – Maryland is even more Democratic than it used to be.

ME – Mitchell (D) 46, LePage (R) 43, Cutler (I) 7 – Impressive primary win for LePage.  Will be tough.

MI – Hoekstra (R) 52, Bernero (D) 47 – Granholm administration a tough act to follow.

MN – Dayton (D) 47, Emmer (R) 40, Horner (I) 12 – DUI controversy ugly for Emmer.

NE – Heineman (R) unopposed – Heineman is the only unopposed governor.  Go NE Dems!

NH – Lynch (D) 55, Stephens (R) 43 – Tougher cycle for Lynch this time, but he will survive.

NM – Denish (D) 51, Martinez (R) 49 – Richardson administration weighs down Denish.  Will be tight.

NV – Sandoval (R) 55, Reid (D) 40 – Why couldn’t we find ANYONE else for this one?

NY – Cuomo (D) 67, Lazio (R) 31 – Biggest ass kicking of the cycle for governors.

OH – Strickland (D) 49, Kasich (R) 48 – Strickland narrowly holds on thanks to attackable opponent.

OK – Fallin (R) 55, Edmondson (D) 45 – Another great recruit may be wasted on a tough year.

OR – Kitzhaber (D) 51, Dudley (R) 44 – Dudley getting bad press about ducking debates.

PA – Corbett (R) 51, Onorato (D) 46 – Unpopular Rendell administration drags down Onorato.

RI – Caprio (D) 41, Chafee (I) 37, Robitaille (R) 20 – Race is polling close, but Caprio has room to grow.

SC – Haley (R) 53, Sheheen (D) 46 – Grassroots energy behind Haley undeniable, but she could fuck it up in a variety of ways.

SD – Daugaard (R) 58, Heidepreim (D) 42 – Daugaard wins battle of great Dutch names.

TN – Haslam (R) 56, McWherter (D) 42 – Some polling out on this now, and it’s not pretty.

TX – Perry (R) 47.4, White (D) 46.8 – White could very well win this, but it will be unbelievably tough.

UT – Herbert (R) 63, Corroon (D) 34 – It’s still Utah.

VT – Markowitz (D) 49.1, Dubie (R) 48.9 – This is optimistic, but Dem candidates have room to grow.

WI – Walker (R) 50, Barrett (D) 48 – Unpopular Doyle administration a drag on Barrett.

WY – Simpson (R) 62, Petersen (D) 35 – Competes with Kansas for easiest GOP pickup.

• CT-Sen: Quinnipiac (7/8, registered voters, likely Republican primary voters, 6/2-8 in parentheses):

Richard Blumenthal (D): 54 (55)

Linda McMahon (R): 37 (35)

Undecided: 7 (8)

Richard Blumenthal (D): 55 (54)

Rob Simmons (R): 35 (33)

Undecided: 9 (10)

Richard Blumenthal (D): 58 (56)

Peter Schiff (R): 31 (29)

Undecided: 9 (12)

(MoE: ±2.7%)

Linda McMahon (R): 52

Rob Simmons (R): 25

Peter Schiff (R) : 13

Undecided: 10

(MoE: ±3.4%)

Not much change in the Nutmeg State. And it looks like Rob Simmons might have some pretty serious disincentive to not get back into the Senate primary again, as he briefly threatened.

• FL-Sen: Marco Rubio’s $4.4 million haul blew a lot of people away, but what’s equally impressive (and didn’t get any coverage at the time) is his burn rate. It turns out that, even though he no longer has a primary to worry about, he spent almost all ($4 million) of what he made.

• NY-Sen-B: You might remember that there was some uncertainty as to whether Joe DioGuardi, who has the Conservative line for November, would even make it into the Republican primary thanks to his poor finish at the GOP state convention. Well, after gathering enough signatures, he has now successfully petitioned his way onto the primary ballot. He has consistently led polls of the GOP primary, although generally in the low 20s. (H/t andyroo312.)

• WI-Sen, WI-Gov (pdf): Apparently, voters in Wisconsin are dimly aware that something called an “election” may be transpiring at some point in the future, as more than half of all those surveyed not having decided yet on a Senate pick, at least according to Univ. of Wisconsin’s Badger Poll. The likely voters in Wisconsin are currently going for Russ Feingold at 33 and Ron Johnson 28. RVs are Feingold 27, Johnson 21, and Wisconsin residents are Feingold 25, Johnson 19. In a remarkable contrast with Rasmussen (who’d have thunk?), nobody knows who Johnson is: he has 12/8 favorables among likely voters. They also look at the even-more-disinteresting gubernatorial race, finding Tom Barrett losing to both Scott Walker and Mark Neumann by the same margin of 32-15 (!). (UPDATE (DavidNYC): Here’s another good reason to mistrust this poll: It was in the field for a month. What the…?)

• WV-Sen: The West Virginia legislature is still busy tinkering with their state’s election laws today as part of the preparations for the special election to succeed Robert Byrd. Perhaps most significantly, it sounds like they are planning special primaries (tentatively set for fast-approaching Aug. 28), rather than a jungle-style election in November. They threw out a Joe Manchin proposal, however, that would scrap the special primaries if only one candidate from each party decided to run.

• AZ-Gov: We reported yesterday on the Rocky Mountain Poll (by the ominously-named Behavior Research Council), and it looks like they also have general election numbers. GOP incumbent Jan Brewer leads Democratic AG Terry Goddard 45-25, a surprisingly large margin since most non-Rasmussen pollsters have seen a close race (although that was mostly before SB 1070-mania hit).

• CO-Gov: SurveyUSA, on behalf of the Denver Post, is out with a snap poll on the subject of Scott McInnis, post-plagiarism-scandal. It turns out that this scandal does have a lot of resonance — there’s a lot less semantic ambiguity here than with Richard Blumenthal or even Mark Kirk… either you wrote it or you didn’t (and then tried to pass the blame on an octogenarian ally). 20% of Republicans now say they’ll vote for someone else, but 39% say they’ll still vote for him. Looking ahead to a replacement, the poll also asked who “the strongest Republican” would be, and the number one pick was… you guessed it… Tom Tancredo, at 29. McInnis followed at 19, with primary opponent Dan Maes at 13. Jane Norton (a possible switchover, given her dwindling Senate campaign) was at 11, former candidate and state Sen. Josh Penry was at 7, and Univ. of Colorado Bruce Benson was at 3. (In other polling news, note that even Rasmussen can’t find a way to polish this turd, as seen in a poll (see below) taken last night.)

If you’re wondering who Benson is, he’s now the subject of perhaps the most speculation as the GOP’s preferred fill-in. Another name getting tossed around is long-ago former Sen. Hank Brown, who more recently served as president of Univ. of Northern Colorado. The Post also was apparently set to do its regularly-scheduled endorsement for the primary this week, and they said that prior to this week, they would have endorsed McInnis; now they can’t endorse anyone at all (which is quite the slap at Maes).

• GA-Gov: Not that he seems to need a lot of help at this point, but Roy Barnes is getting the endorsement of Atlanta’s new mayor, Kasim Reed. Turnabout’s fair play, as Barnes gave Reed a late endorsement in last year’s election.

• NY-Gov: Well, this race is effectively over: Andrew Cuomo reported raising $9.2 million in the last six months for a total of $23.6 million CoH. (You think he could redirect a little of that to the DGA? Of the nation’s 10 most populous states, 9 have gubernatorial races, and of those 9, New York is the lone one that isn’t highly competitive.) Rick Lazio, by comparison, raised $1.4 million in that period, and has $689K CoH, which might make him competitive in an upstate House race. GOP primary rival Carl Paladino reported raising $1.7 million during the same period… but $1.6 million of that came out of his own pocket.

• TN-Gov: We normally don’t report on Mitt Romney’s many endorsements, as he seems to hand out low-four-figures sums of money to any Republican with a pulse who survived a primary. Here’s one that’s a big race though and where the decisive primary hasn’t happened yet. Romney backed Bill Haslam, the establishment and most moderate of the three GOPers in the primary.

• TX-Gov: With full information available from Rick Perry, we know now that Bill White won each fundraising category. White outraised Perry $7.4 million to $7.1 million in the post-primary period, and White leads in CoH by a $9 million to $5.8 million margin. And here’s an interesting tidbit: the White campaign says it’s raised more than $1 million from former Kay Bailey Hutchison contributors.

• CO-04: EMILY’s List is weighing into the 4th with a big independent expenditure. They’ll be spending $300K on TV advertising on behalf of Betsy Markey over the next three weeks; the ad’s a negative spot hitting Corey Gardner, including on health care issues.

• FL-17: The Miami Herald has some helpful background on the largely-forgotten Democratic primary in the open seat 17th, which is where all the action will be in this dark-blue district. (This seat, long held by the Meek family, hasn’t had a competitive primary in decades.) They look at state Sen. Frederica Wilson as frontrunner, and they cite an AFL-CIO poll from March (the first I’ve seen of it) that had Wilson at 34, with 12 for Miami Gardens mayor Shirley Gibson and 10 for North Miami city councilor Scott Galvin. The race’s rapidly emerging wild card, though, seems to be physician Rudolph Moise, by virtue of having over $900K CoH, at least six times what anyone else has. Some of that is self-funded, but he seems to have raised the most from other donors too, and he plans to start an advertising blitz soon.

• GA-12: Rep. John Barrow’s been burning cash fast lately: he raised $204K last quarter but spent $374K in that period, leaving him with $655 CoH. But that’s probably because his big challenge this year is in the Democratic primary (next week), not in the general, where his possible GOP opponents are all pretty weak. Of course, Regina Thomas doesn’t present that much challenge to him, either, if her financials are any indication: she raised $2,400 last quarter and had $6,600 CoH. But hey, at least she managed to file her FEC report on time this year.

• ID-01: Here’s another way that Raul Labrador is an unconventional candidate: he thinks that following that unspoken rule that you release your internal polls only when they have good news for you is for pussies. He’s out with an internal, by Moore Insight, that gives Rep. Walt Minnick — in theory one of the most vulnerable freshmen by virtue of his district and narrow win last time — a 37-27 lead. Minnick’s re-elect is only 38/40, though, which I guess is worth something. Reid Wilson also has more detail on Labrador today, slamming Kevin McCarthy’s efforts to reach out to citizens for help on creating a new Contract with America-type-thing. (The democracy-hating Labrador, no fan of the 17th Amendment either, thinks House leadership should impose the agenda top-down.) Also, were you wondering why Labrador didn’t loudly tout his fundraising haul from last quarter? Well, that’s because he raised $101K in the post-primary period of May and June, and is sitting on all of $69K CoH with $30K debt.

• MI-01: Is this the smallest sample size ever? Another Inside Michigan Politics poll of a House primary is out, this time in the Republican field in the open seat race to replace Bart Stupak, and it’s got a whopping n of 140. State Sen. Jason Allen and physician Dan Benishek (who was the lone GOPer before Stupak’s retirement announcement) are tied at the top with 20 each. There’s also a handful of no-names polling in the low single digits, one of whom, Linda Goldthorpe, just dropped out yesterday. (H/t TheGradyDem.)

• Caucuses: Well, it was only a matter of time before this happened. Michele Bachmann is taking out the paperwork to create a whole new caucus in the House: the Tea Party Caucus. Hmmm… I thought that already existed, and it was called the RSC.

• NY-St. Sen.: Here’s an interesting piece on the fundraising and infrastructure collapse behind the scenes for the GOP in the New York State Senate (who may, via GOP-held open seats, actually manage to lose further seats in November despite the nature of the year). Case in point: the race to replace retiring Senator Vincent Leibell in the Hudson Valley, where there’s cat fud a-flyin’ between establishment pick Mary Beth Murphy and teabaggish Greg Ball (who you may recall from briefly making a splashy entry in the NY-19 field).

• Rasmussen:

• CO-Gov: John Hickenlooper (D) 45%, Scott McInnis (R) 43%

• DE-Sen: Chris Coons (D) 36%, Mike Castle (R) 47%

• DE-Sen: Chris Coons (D) 39%, Christine O’Donnell (R) 41%

• GA-Gov (D): Roy Barnes (D) 59%, Thurbert Baker (D) 16%, Dubose Porter 5%, David Poythress 5%

• PA-Gov: Dan Onorato (D) 38%, Tom Corbett (R) 48%

• WA-Sen: Patty Murray (D) 45%, Dino Rossi (R) 48%

• WA-Sen: Patty Murray (D) 45%, Clint Didier (R) 48%

• WA-Sen: Patty Murray (D) 46%, Paul Akers (R) 41%

Mason-Dixon for Las Vegas Review-Journal (7/12-14, likely voters, 6/1-3 in parens):

Harry Reid (D-inc): 44 (41)

Sharron Angle (R): 37 (44)

Other: 4 (3)

None of these: 5 (4)

Undecided: 10 (8)

(MoE: 4%)

I’d thought the Patriot Majority poll from a few days ago (that gave Harry Reid a 4-point lead) was a little optimistic, but along comes Mason-Dixon (on behalf of the Las Vegas Review-Journal, which Jon Ralston has described as “an anti-Harry Reid PAC”) with an even bigger lead in their first poll since the resolution of the GOP primary.

As in Kentucky, this looks like a race where the most conservative primary option got insufficient pre-primary scrutiny in the media, and then got hammered with it afterwards. Add in a big disparity in the effectiveness of advertising and general messaging right now — Reid touting his ability to save jobs for Nevada, and Angle, um, criticizing Reid for saving jobs while saying that job creation’s not a Senator’s job — and there’s a definite shift in momentum here. No doubt someone will point out that the incumbent is still way below 50%, but I have a feeling Harry Reid is OK with that… because this is going to be an election where “None of these” scores extremely well.

Worth noting: nobody but Rasmussen has seen an Angle lead since the GOP primary wrapped up. Here’s the state of the race in graphic form, courtesy of Pollster.com:

We’d had a pretty clear sense that this race was headed back to “Tossup” (from “Lean Republican”) as soon as Sharron Angle won the primary, but with today’s poll we can’t justify holding back any longer.