Month: August 2010

9:41pm: Follow us over here.

9:40pm: I don’t think we’ve even mentioned the Kansas Dem Senate primary, not that we really need to. Lisa Johnston leads at 35, with Charles Schollenberger at 23, and David Haley (a state Senator and former SoS candidate, no less) a woeful 17.

9:39pm: Switching back to Kansas, things are getting tighter between Jerry Moran and Todd Tiahrt. Moran leads 49-44 with about 8% in.

9:36pm: Speaking of MI-02, that GOP primary may be the night’s most exciting match. It’s currently Huizenga 26, Kuipers 25, Riemersma 24, Cooper 19.

9:34pm: Although Peter Hoekstra can take some comfort in the fact that he’s still well-liked back home. He’s up 50-25 over Snyder within the bounds of MI-02.

9:33pm: As we close in on 20% statewide in Michigan, things are looking fairly stable in the governor’s races. Virg Bernero leads 58-24 over Andy Dillon for the Ds. For the GOP, it’s Snyder 36, Hoekstra 27, Cox 25, Bouchard 10. Looks like cornering the moderate market worked out for tough nerd Snyder.

9:31pm: Thanks to a big margin in the Lower Peninsula, Jason Allen’s pulling into the lead in MI-01, now 39-38 over Dan Benishek.

9:30pm: As more votes pour in, things are tightening up in MI-13. Hansen Clarke still leads Carolyn Cheeks Kilpatrick, but with about 10% in, it’s still a pretty big Clarke lead: 50-32. At least she’s over the Bob Inglis line for worst incumbent primary performance.

9:28pm: The most drama in Missouri seems to be in the GOP field in MO-04, where social con Vicki Hartzler leads state Sen. Bill Stouffer 39-34.

9:27pm: What am I bid for a House seat? With about 10% reporting, auctioneer Billy Long is cruising in MO-07, with 40%. State Sen. Gary Nodler’s stronghold of Newton Co. hasn’t reported yet though (he’s only at 8, with J. Goodman at 22).

9:25pm: Show Me the money! The AP has called the GOP Senate primary in Missouri, no surprise, for Roy Blunt. He’s beating Chuck Purgason 72-13 in one of the cycle’s bigger cases of teabagger fail.

9:23pm: Wow, major momentum shift in MI-02 again. Now teabagger Bill Cooper’s in 4th! Huizenga and Kuipers share the lead at 26, with about 15% in.

9:21pm: Only 5% in in KS-01, but in the R primary there, birther real estate agent Tracey Mann leads at 32, with CfG fave Tim Huelskamp at 27 and ‘moderate’ Jim Barnett at 20. No runoffs in Kansas.

9:20pm: I think most people had forgotten that Lynn Jenkins in KS-02 was getting a semi-legit teabagger challenge (state Sen. Dennis Pyle). She’s winning, but with an underwhelming 60-40 margin with about 3% in.

9:19pm: Hmm, things much tighter suddenly in MI-01 GOP primary. Benishek leads Allen 40-38.

9:18pm: Switching over to Kansas, Jerry Moran is in the lead, 52-40. Moran leads 73-22 in KS-01, while Todd Tiahrt leads 55-38 in KS-04.

9:16pm: In MI-09, Rocky Raczkowski is way in the lead in the GOP primary: 50-28 over Paul Welday, Joe Knollenberg’s former CoS.

9:15pm: And in MI-07, the guy who was teabagging before it was called teabagging, Tim Walberg, looks like he’ll be back for revenge. He’s beating establishment choice Brian Rooney 55-34.

9:13pm: In MI-03: state Rep. (and teabagger) Justin Amash is running away with it at 47%, with Hardiman at 17 and Heacock at 19.

9:12pm: Check out MI-02: teabagging businessman Bill Cooper’s in the lead at 30 with nearly 10% in, with those three Dutch-named guys all clumped in the low 20s.

9:08pm: It’s early, but get a load of netroots fave Sean Tevis in KS-02 — the dude is in third place against a pair of Some Dudes!

9:06pm: Hoekstra’s leading 47-27 in his home CD, but in 3rd elsewhere.

9:04pm: In MI-06, Fred Upton has nosed down to 55% against wingnut’s wingnut Jack Hoogendyk.

9:01pm: Back in Michigan, Virg Bernero has shot up to a 59-41 lead over Andy Dillon. For the Republicans, Rick Snyder is ahead of Pete “The Incredible Hoek” Hoekstra by 35-28. Just over 7% of precincts reporting.

8:57pm: Though this was a foregone conclusion, the Associated Press has called the Dem Senate nomination in Missouri for Robin Carnahan.

8:55pm: Just a handful of votes in in MI-13, but Hansen Clarke is leading Carolyn Cheeks Kilpatrick by 43-17 so far.

8:51pm: Some more GOP House race updates: In MI-01, Benishek leads Allen by 45-30; in MI-02, Kuipers leads Riemersma by 26-23 (with Huizenga very close behind); in MI-07, Walberg leads Rooney by 55-34.

8:49pm: Wow, check out MI-06 — Republican incumbent Fred Upton is only at 55.5% against teabagging ex-state Rep. Jack Hoogendyk. 20% of precincts are reporting.

8:43pm: A good sign for Dan Benishek in MI-01 (R): he’s leading 53-19 in the UP, but also edging out Jason Allen 35-34 in the LP.

8:40pm: Regional divisions are becoming pretty evident in a few races. In MI-Gov (R), Peter Hoekstra’s scoring 61% in his home district while only 27% elsewhere. In KS-Sen (R), Jerry Moran’s getting 73% in his home district to Tiahrt’s 22%; he’s also leading 59-34 in the rest of the state. Nothing in Tiahrt’s home district’s reported though.

8:39pm: The AP’s called KS-Gov (R) for Sam Brownback.

8:24pm: House races for the GOP: In MI-07, Walberg’s out to an early lead with 66%; in MI-01, with two UP precincts in, Dan Benishek’s up 37-26 over Jason Allen. In Missouri, Vicki Hartzler is up 36-28 over Bill Stouffer in MO-04.

8:22pm: A few results in Michigan, where on the Dem side, Andy Dillon has a 3% advantage over Virg Bernero. On the GOP side, Peter Hoekstra’s out to an early lead with 35%, with Mike Cox behind at 28% and Rick Snyder at 23.

8:18pm: A surprising result in MO-08 (R) so far, with incumbent Jo Ann Emerson earning only 60%.

8:12pm: Our first results in for the night, a lonely precinct in Missouri where Roy Blunt has 55% to Chuck Purgason’s 37% in the GOP Senate primary.

---

Let’s do this thing.

Results:

     Kansas: Associated Press | Politico

     Michigan: Associated Press | Politico | MI DoS

     Missouri: Associated Press | Politico | MO SoS

Come one, come all — if you have predictions for tonight’s hot primaries, now’s the time to share ’em.

And as always, the folks at SSP Headline News and SSP Labs will be in full operation for liveblogging duties tonight, so I hope you can join us when polls close at 8pm (MI & MO) and 9pm (KS).

By: Inoljt, http://mypolitikal.com/

What if only white females voted in the 2008 presidential election?

This is the type of question social scientists and individuals like me love to explore, and which everybody else presumably finds quite boring. More fascinating still, there is actually a somewhat reliable answer to the question. This is because, in every state of the union, there are exit polls of the white female vote in 2008.

It turns out that if only white females voted in 2008, Senator John McCain would have won the popular vote 53% to 46%, taking a comfortable eight-point lead.

Senator Barack Obama, however, would be president. He would win a razor-thin, 273 to 265 majority in the electoral college:

More below.

This is quite a remarkable result. Mr. Obama loses by eight percentage  points amongst white female voters – yet still wins the electoral  college and becomes president. Imagine if Senator John McCain lost the real 2008 presidential election by the exact same popular margin and then magically won the electoral college.

This is a graph Nate Silver once compiled of the chances this would happen in the real electorate:

According to the analysis, a four-point margin in the popular vote translates into a one percent chance of losing the electoral college. Notice how the graph does not even go beyond a seven-point popular victory.

So how does Mr. Obama lose so badly amongst white females yet still become president?

Here is the answer:

As it turns out, white female supporters of Mr. McCain are distributed very inefficiently. They are packed in states the Republican is already winning, especially in the racially polarized Deep South – where Mr. McCain does so well it is quite amazing and sad.

The Democratic white female vote, while not as numerous, is far more efficiently placed. Democrats win white females where it matters – in thin but strategically located margins in enough states to win the electoral college.

This fact can be illustrated visually:

The map above constitutes the 2008 white female vote, except this time  differentiated by margin of victory. Except in a few parts of New England, Democrats never win white females by margins greater than 20%.

Finally, this analysis also illustrates the continuing racial divide confronting the United States. More than a century after slavery and fifty years after Civil Rights, in too many parts of the country one can tell far too much – about voting habits or other behavior – just by looking at skin color.

P.S. For those interested, here is a full of table of the white female vote in 2008, by each state’s exit polling.

• CO-Sen: Now it’s Michael Bennet’s turn to dip into his personal funds to pay for the closing days of the Democratic Senate primary. After Andrew Romanoff posted a lead in the most recent poll of the primary (and sold his house to finance his last push), now Bennet’s fronting himself $300K. Here’s some good news, though, if Romanoff does succeed in pulling off the upset: he’s reversed course on his previous refusals of DSCC help (seemingly aware of the difficulty of winning without it, with him having burned through all his money on the primary). Meanwhile, on the GOP side of the fence, John McCain is providing some good news! for Jane Norton. He’ll be stumping on her behalf soon, and also sent around a fundraising e-mail, asking for another $200K for Norton and attacking Ken Buck’s past prosecutorial misconduct. (Buck responded by saying that McCain and “his lobbyist friends” were “greasing the power brokers” for Norton. “Greasing the power brokers?” I’m not even sure what that means, and I don’t know if I want to.)

• PA-Sen: Diarist cilerder86 does some digging into Joe Sestak’s Act Blue contributions, and finds that his fundraising isn’t letting up at all. In fact, based on Act Blue data (which seems to have a stable relationship with his overall fundraising), he extrapolates Sestak having raised at least $1.1 million in July, and on track to raise at least $3 million this quarter.

• CO-Gov: It looks like John Hickenlooper had the right idea emptying his coffers to reserve cheap ad space and hope they’d get refilled quickly, because they did. Of course, it helps that he got a big assist from Scott McInnis’s well-timed implosion. Hickenlooper’s pre-primary report had $203K raised in the last two weeks of July, compared with $41K for McInnis and $20K for fellow GOPer Dan Maes.

• GA-Gov: With Barack Obama speaking in Atlanta, Dem nominee Roy Barnes managed to be found in a totally different part of the state, meeting in rural Monroe County with 28 county sheriffs who are supporting his candidacy at a previously-scheduled engagement. Barnes said, “I’d rather be with these folks, if you want to know the truth. I’m not running for governor of Washington D.C. I’m running for governor of Georgia.”

• HI-Gov: Mufi Hannemann is the money leader in the Hawaii governor’s race. He raised $822K in the first half of the year, and is sitting on $2 million CoH. Democratic primary rival Neil Abercrombie raised $712K in that period, but spent considerably, leaving him with only $469K CoH. Republican Duke Aiona raised $374K in the first half, and has $719K CoH.

• MI-Gov: There’s word of one more poll out in Michigan of the Dem gubernatorial primary. Details are, well, sketchy; all I can tell you is that it’s from a firm I’ve never heard of, Foster McCollum White & Associates, and I have no idea whether it’s a public poll or an internal from Virg Bernero or an ally. At any rate, it’s more evidence for a late Bernero surge, giving him a 50-22 lead over Andy Dillon.

• MA-10: With most of the attention having fallen on the flawed Republican candidates in this open seat race, it’s easy to forget there’s still a competitive Democratic primary between two well-established fixtures here too. State Sen. Robert O’Leary has the lead in his own internal poll, conducted by Gerstein-Agne. He leads Norfolk Co. DA William Keating 44-38, with a 57-38 lead among voters who know both candidates.

• NY-25: Dueling internals got rolled out in the 25th, which is pretty low on people’s priority lists in New York, but still needs to be watched carefully, given the climate of the day. Republican challenger Ann Marie Buerkle (one of the more obscure Mama Grizzlies) offered a poll from McLaughlin & Associates giving Democratic incumbent Dan Maffei a 46-37 lead (and closer numbers among those who’ve heard of both). Maffei responded with a Kiley & Co. poll giving him a 54-35 lead instead.

• Rasmussen:

• AZ-Sen: Rodney Glassman (D) 34%, John McCain (R-inc) 53%

• AZ-Sen: Rodney Glassman (D) 43%, J.D. Hayworth (R) 38%

• CO-Gov: John Hickenlooper (D) 43%, Scott McInnis (R) 25%, Tom Tancredo (I) 24%

• CO-Gov: John Hickenlooper (D) 42%, Dan Maes (R) 27%, Tom Tancredo (I) 24%

• NY-Sen-B: Kirsten Gillibrand (D-inc) 50%, Joe DioGuardi (R) 33%

• NY-Sen-B: Kirsten Gillibrand (D-inc) 48%, Bruce Blakeman (R) 34%

• NY-Sen-B: Kirsten Gillibrand (D-inc) 51%, David Malpass (R) 31%

• SC-Sen: Alvin Greene (D) 20%, Jim DeMint (R-inc) 62%

Only the first in a month chock-full of primaries.

Kansas:

• KS-Sen (R): The main event in Kansas is the GOP Senate primary; with underfunded Democratic opposition (and Kansas’s many decades of sending only Republicans to the Senate), this basically determines its next Senator. It’s a geographical and ideological battle between two of Kansas’s four Representatives: Jerry Moran, who represents KS-01 across the state’s empty western two-thirds, and Todd Tiahrt, from the Wichita-area KS-04. Moran, while no one’s idea of a “moderate,” doesn’t have a hard-right reputation; yet, he’s the preferred choice of many on the right (like Jim DeMint) because of his fiscal hawkishness and Tiahrt’s role ladling out pork on Appropriations. Tiahrt is the favorite of the social conservatives, and boasts a Sarah Palin endorsement. Moran has led all polling, ranging by anywhere from 3 to 20 points, with Moran leading by 10 in SurveyUSA‘s final poll released yesterday. (C)
• KS-Sen (D): Democrats have a primary here too, for the privilege of being a speed bump for Moran or Tiahrt in November. Retired newspaper publisher Charles Schollenberger was originally expected to be the nominee, then state Sen. David Haley showed up. However, professor Lisa Johnston has led the few polls of the race. (C)
• KS-01 (R): In a CD that gave Barack Obama a mere 30% of its vote in 2008 (a high-water mark for Dems, considering Gore and Kerry languished in the 20s here), the only party with a keg and a boom box is on the Republican side of the fence — and everyone’s jumpin’. In a crowded field, the GOP primary for Moran’s open seat is coming down to state Sen. Jim Barnett, realtor Tracey Mann, and Club For Growth favorite state Sen. Tim Huelskamp. SUSA’s most recent poll had the trio tied at exactly 24% each — a true three-way tossup. Barnett’s probably the most “moderate” of the three, but the most at stake here is the difference between Very Conservative and Ultra Douchey Wingnut Conservative. (JL)
• KS-03 (R): State Rep. Kevin Yoder has been labeled a moderate by the national press, which is curious due to his allegiance with the conservative factions of the Kansas state legislature. Whatever the case, it looks like he has a solid grip on the Republican nomination for the seat of retiring Dem Rep. Dennis Moore. As of mid-July, he’s out-raised his conservative primary challenger, ex-state Rep. Patricia Lightner, by an 8-to-1 margin. The winner will square off against Stephene Moore, Dennis Moore’s wife, this fall. (JL)
• KS-04 (D): Will state Rep. Raj Goyle, a fundraising machine, get VicRawl’d? For a brief while, it looked like Goyle, one of the DCCC’s few bright lights this cycle, was in serious danger of losing to Some Dude Robert Tillman, a retiree who has not filed a fundraising report with the FEC. It looks like Goyle successfully turned up the volume on his campaign, though, as SUSA’s final poll of the primary gave Goyle a commanding 63-19 lead. (JL)

• KS-04 (R): In the scramble to replace dry rub-flavored wingnut Todd Tiahrt, the most recent SUSA poll has given RNC committee member Mike Pompeo a 31-24 lead over state Sen. Jean Schodorf (who was actually endorsed by Planned Parenthood), with 21% going to carpetbagging businessman Wink Hartman, who has invested over $1.5 million of his own funds into his campaign. That represents something of a slide for Hartman and a surge for Schodorf, but there may not have been enough time left on the clock for Schodorf to steal this one. (JL)
  

Michigan:

• MI-Gov (D): Pugnacious populist vs. smooth centrist. That’s the easy alliterative description of the choice Democratic voters have, between Lansing mayor Virg Bernero and state House speaker Andy Dillon, in the gubernatorial primary. Bernero caught the eye of many on the left with his strong advocacy for government assistance to the automakers and has AFL-CIO backing (which includes the UAW), while the pro-life and business-friendly Dillon has had often strained relations with labor (although he does have some labor backing of his own, including the Teamsters). Dillon has led most polls thanks to better name rec in the Detroit area, but Bernero seems to have caught a late bounce and led this weekend’s EPIC-MRA poll. (C)
• MI-Gov (R): There are potentially four different candidates who could win the Republican gubernatorial primary. Rick Snyder, the former CEO of Gateway Computers who made a name for himself with his “one tough nerd” ad campaign, had a tiny lead in this weekend’s EPIC-MRA poll, and may have a path to victory in that he basically has the moderate vote to himself (and is relying on crossover votes from indies in the open primary), while the others are all fighting over the conservative share. Rep. Peter Hoekstra and AG Mike Cox have traded polling leads back-and-forth throughout most of the campaign (with Hoekstra having a built-in advantage as the only western Michigan candidate), with Oakland Co. Sheriff Mike Bouchard always hanging back within striking distance. Michigan doesn’t use runoffs, so whoever wins will be doing so with only about 30%. (C)
• MI-01 (R): This race spent last year on no one’s radar screen, but with Rep. Bart Stupak’s surprise retirement, it attracted some additional Republican interest. Physician Dan Benishek was the only Republican running for the spot before Stupak’s announcement. State Sen. Jason Allen got in afterwards, but Benishek stayed in. Allen has the “establishment” mantle here, but may be geographically hampered by being from the Traverse City area, not the Upper Peninsula. Benishek is opting for the “true conservative” route, pointing to Allen’s insufficient hatred of labor. The lone poll of the primary found Allen and Benishek tied. (C)
• MI-02 (R): The race to replace retiring Rep. Peter Hoekstra will no doubt find the torch being passed to another ultra-conservative Dutch-American, which should be no surprise, given the district’s profile. The frontrunner appears to be former NFL tight end and Family Research Council executive Jay Riemersma, who raised more than twice the money of any other candidate and also a lead in the lone poll. He faces state Sen. Wayne Kuipers and former state Rep. Bill Huizenga. One potential wild card is businessman Bill Cooper, who’s been reaching out to the Tea Partiers and who has a base in the Muskegon area, unlike the others, all from the district’s population center of Ottawa County. (C)
• MI-03 (R): Republican voters in the 3rd are choosing between three options to replace retiring Rep. Vern Ehlers: brash young state Rep. Justin Amash (who’s the Tea Party fave, but also the protege of the DeVos family, the Republican power behind the throne in Michigan), termed-out state Sen. Bill Hardiman, and former Kent Co. Commissioner Steve Heacock. Amash had raised the most money, and has a narrow lead in the one poll of the race. Heacock is the most moderate in the field and has the backing of Ehlers and a number of other local politicians. (C)
• MI-07 (R): Former Rep. Tim Walberg is attempting to make a comeback after his defeat at the hands of now Rep. Mark Schauer, but he’ll have to get through attorney Brian (and grandson of Steelers owner Art) Rooney. Walberg is playing the social conservative angle as always, but has some surprising endorsements, including one Rudolph Giuliani. Rooney’s playing the moderate angle somewhat, having garnered the endorsement of former Rep. Joe Schwarz, who Walberg primaried out in 2006; the Detroit Free Press has opted as well for Rooney. Walberg is no doubt out there, but he is winning the money race and this is a district that’s booted a moderate at least once. (JMD)
• MI-09 (R): Republicans sense an opportunity to knock off freshman Dem Gary Peters, with four candidates having jumped into the fray. The two frontrunners – former Farmington Hills State Rep. Andrew “Rocky” Raczkowski and former 9th CD Rep. Joe Knollenberg’s former Chief of Staff Paul Welday (what a mouthful) – have gone after each other, trying to out-conservative the other. Raczkowski put out a poll in May giving him a 26-15 lead, but that was ages, a Detroit Free Press endorsement for Rocky, and at least $100k in TV ads ago; this race remains quite the tossup. (JMD)
• MI-12 (D): What happens when you implement term limits? Politicians start playing musical chairs, of course. Term-limited state Senator Mickey Switalski of suburban Macomb County is challenging 14-term incumbent Sander (and older brother of US Senator Carl) Levin. Switalski – who’s challenged his party in the state Senate – is hitting Levin from the right, emphasizing the deficit (eye roll) and “bipartisanship” (double eye roll). An ancient poll in March, which had Levin leading 62-14, and Switalski’s $32k in cycle-to-date expenditures make it hard to imagine that he’s getting much traction in this quixotic challenge. (JMD)
• MI-13 (D): Carolyn Cheeks Kilpatrick stumbled across the finish line two years ago with 39% against two opponents who split the anti-Kilpatrick vote, and she’s drawn five opponents this year. However, things seem to be a little different, with one of her challengers – State Senator Hansen Clarke, who represents a section of the city of Detroit, presenting himself as the clear not-Kilpatrick. While Cheeks Kilpatrick might take solace that her scandal-plagued son – former Detroit mayor Kwame Kilpatrick – is out of the news (and in state prison, no less), she ought to be worried that she’s up against only one credible challenger. With several recent polls and the Detroit Free Press having given Clarke sizeable leads and an endorsement respectively, Cheeks Kilpatrick may very well find her name next to Alan Mollohan’s and Parker Griffith’s on the list of incumbents bounced in this year’s primaries. (JMD)

Missouri:

• MO-Sen (R): Back in the early days of teabagger ferment, when it seemed like those plucky little nutbars could take on the entire GOP empire themselves, it was at least plausible to imagine state Sen. Chuck Purgason giving Rep. Roy Blunt a run for his money. Alas, as we’ve learned, that’s still the one thing you need in this world, even if you are fueled by the paranoid fury of a million mouthbreathers: money. And Purgason has none of it. Blunt has outspent him literally 100-to-1, and Purgason doesn’t even have enough cash left over to treat his staff to Starbucks. Blunt may be a despised creature of the establishment, but like Mark Kirk, he should have no problem kicking teabagger ass. (D)
• MO-04 (R): While something like a dozen Republicans signed up in the primary to face longtime Dem Rep. Ike Skelton, only two have raised money above the “surely you must be joking” level: state Sen. Bill Stouffer ($450K) and former state Rep. Vicky Hartzler ($500K). Both candidates are on the NRCC’s Young Guns list, but the local establishment, apparently preferring Stouffer, tried to talk Hartzler out of the race back in March. That obviously didn’t work, and in the last couple of weeks, both candidates have taken to the airwaves, with each accusing the other of raising taxes. This is definitely anybody’s race. Hartzler’s stronghold should be Cass County (the site of her old district), in CD 4’s northwest corner. Stouffer hails from Saline County in the north-central part of the district, and his state senate district also covers Ray and Lafayette counties in the 4th. (D)
• MO-07 (R): The primary in this dark-red district in southwestern Missouri is principally a three-way affair between self-funding auctioneer Billy Long and two state senators, Jack Goodman and Gary Nodler. Long has tried to wear the “true conservative” mantle (he’s been endorsed by Mike Huckabee), but he’s also been attacked by the shadowy Americans for Job Security as an earmark-happy member of a local airport’s board of directors. Long fired back with an ad of his own, accusing both of his opponents of the same sin. There have actually been a bunch of internal polls of this race, but they mostly just show the top three candidates jumbled together somewhere around 20 points, plus or minus a few. Nodler hails from Jasper County on the Kansas border, while Goodman lives in adjacent Lawrence County, just to the east. Long, meanwhile, is from Springfield, MO, which is in the next county over, Greene. (D)

PPP (pdf) (7/27-8/1, Washington voters, no trendlines):

Patty Murray (D-inc): 47

Dino Rossi (R): 33

Clint Didier (R): 10

Paul Akers (R): 4

Undecided: 6

Patty Murray (D-inc): 49

Dino Rossi (R): 46

Undecided: 5

Patty Murray (D-inc): 50

Clint Didier (R): 39

Undecided: 12

(MoE: ±2.8%)

PPP’s first look at the Washington Senate race confirms what we’ve known for months: this is going to be a close race, but Patty Murray has a perceptible advantage thanks to the lean of the state and decent approvals. Check out the undecideds: only 5% in a Murray/Dino Rossi head-to-head. Thanks to Rossi’s two gubernatorial runs, everyone in the state already has an opinion of both candidates, and he’s not going to fall below 46% (which is about where he wound up in 2008’s gubernatorial race). It’s the getting from that base camp to the summit of 50%+1 in this blue state that’s the tricky part for him (and for all Republicans, period).

Murray’s approvals are 46/45, surprisingly not-bad for an incumbent politician this year; Tom Jensen points out that leaves her fairly exalted company (only five Senators up for re-election this year have better ratings). Rossi’s favorables are 43/48, again, pointing to the problem of who he wins over to get over the top. (Bear in mind, too, that this sample went 51-41 for Obama over McCain in 2008; the actual Obama margin was 17 points, so this sample may be about as good as it gets for the GOP.)

PPP also wisely looked at Washington’s weirdo top-two primary, finding Murray easily winning there, but also finding Rossi set to cruise into the 2nd slot in the general. Faced with monumental name rec and financial deficits against Rossi, teabagger candidates Clint Didier and Paul Akers wound up more on the Chuck Purgason/Patrick Hughes side of the ledger rather than the Rand Paul/Sharron Angle end. Murray’s numbers are pretty flat from primary to general, meaning that Rossi pretty thoroughly consolidates the Didier and Akers votes behind him for the general, despite a general carping from the far right about the establishment having cleared Rossi’s path.

Also of note in this race: both Murray and Rossi are hitting the airwaves. In fact, this is Rossi’s first ad from his own campaign (although he’s been aided by GOP 3rd-party advertising). His spot is mostly a soft re-introduction ad, although he does tout the GOP’s newfound interest in fighting debt. Murray, by contrast, is going negative, pointing out the correlation between Rossi’s Wall Street fundraising and his being the first Senate candidate out there to run in favor of repeal of the recent financial reform package. Murray’s ad even invokes the Bush years for good measure, as part of what may be a new trend for Dem advertisements (although there’s some questions as to the usefulness of that argument).

PPP (pdf) (7/27-31, North Carolina voters, 6/26-27 in parentheses):

Elaine Marshall (D): 37 (33)

Richard Burr (R-inc): 39 (38)

Michael Beitler (L): 7 (10)

Undecided: 17 (16)

(MoE: ±3.9%)

Tom Jensen’s apocalyptic teasing about this race yesterday — which focused on the precipitous decline in Richard Burr‘s appovals, down to 32/44 from 38/32 a year ago — may have given Dems a little too much hope here. Today’s actual topline numbers definitely reveal a competitive race and some headway for Elaine Marshall, but Burr still has a two-point lead. PPP has usually seen this race in a slightly more favorable light for Marshall than other pollsters, so the overall trend here is pretty flat, with a high-single-digit lead for Burr.

Marshall’s favorables are all right at 23/19; her main issue seems to be that nobody (or at least 58%) knows her yet. As I’ve said many a time, that gives her a lot more room to grow… but with Burr with a large fundraising advantage over Marshall, how much growing she can do remains to be seen.

Hey, this is Kenneth Quinnell, the New Media Director for the Kendrick Meek campaign.  Wanted to make sure that everyone saw that we released our third TV ad, this one a positive ad introducing voters to Kendrick and his background.  Give us feedback on this and let us know if we’re going in the right direction.

Thanks,

Kenneth

(Transcript and press release below the fold)

Transcript

Kendrick Meek: “I was raised by a single mom.”

Carrie Meek “He always had a lot of hair. I don’t know what happened to it.”

Kendrick: “I was a sky cap, a state trouper, and a legislator.”

John Ladanza “He was one of my best patrol men”

Sky Cap “He always got time to talk, hes always got a few minutes.”

Kendrick: “I fought to protect the everglades and against privatizing social security”

Elmon “Lee” Garner: “He had the concern and the caring to see how wronged we were”

Kendrick: “But in the end, its about your life and not mine.”

***

Press release

MIAMI GARDENS, FLA.- Today, the Kendrick Meek for Florida campaign released the campaign’s third television ad, “My Life,” that focuses on Kendrick’s life and fight for Florida families. You can view the ad here.

The ad features interviews with Captain John Idanza, a retired officer in the Florida Highway Patrol who Kendrick reported to as a young state trooper, Kendrick’s mother Carrie Meek, and two skycaps who Kendrick worked alongside when he hauled bags for tips as a teenager at Miami International Airport.

Chattahoochee City Manager Elmon “Lee” Garner also tells the story of how Kendrick stood up and fought the opening of a sexual predator facility that was almost placed just a few blocks from a local school.

“He had the concern and caring to see just how wronged we were,” explains Garner in the ad.

The ad also shows a photo of Kendrick with the late Senator Ted Kennedy. Vicki Kennedy, Senator Kennedy’s widow, said she was honored to give Kendrick her family’s blessing to use the photo.

The ad also details Kendrick’s efforts to protect the Everglades from development and his fight against President Bush’s efforts to privatize Social Security.

Uniquely, the ad directs viewers to watch the entire film, titled “Across Florida,” which tells the longer story of Kendrick’s life and his fight for the middle class.

“My Life” goes up on air today.

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Is there a more exciting, yet entirely-irrelevant 2010 political race than the Democratic primary in Florida’s U.S. Senate race?

First off, Florida Democrats must face the music – Republican-turned-Independent Gov. Charlie Crist is going to prevail in this race, and he’ll do so via the support of a great, big chunk of registered Democrats. Why is this the case? Or, better put, why has the Florida Democratic Party become so weak and pathetic in the two years since Barack Obama’s state victory?

Well, it’s all about the candidates, and, in FL-Sen, Democrats are stuck choosing between two politicians who are about as imposing as me.

In one corner, there’s Kendrick Meek, a liberal Congressman who comes from a district so Democratic, he’s never faced a general election challenger. This, of course, is a great characteristic when it comes to reaching out into the swing districts. (Not.) To be fair, Meek is actually a very appealing and talented politician, but even as Charlie Crist was still duking it out in the GOP primary months back, no realistic political pundit thought Meek had a real chance. Now, with centrist, Democrat-friendly Crist running third-party, he’s even more doomed.

Meek’s general election fate was so evident, a millionaire businessman named Jeff Greene figured, “hey, if he sucks so hard in the general, maybe he’ll flop in a primary too!” And, thus, Greene, who is a certified loon, and who no true Democrat (or sane individual) should support, jumped into the race, forced a primary, threw some cash onto the airwaves, and, now, if you believe the polls, he’s actually ahead of Meek.

On one hand, this development is both baffling and disappointing, given Greene is a legit nutjob, and Meek, while hardly a great candidate, has at least done his constituents fair, respectable service in his four terms in Congress. On the flip side, Greene’s entry provides for great, engrossing political fodder, especially from a financial standpoint.

After all, Greene has basically bought himself the lead in this primary, flooding the airwaves as the cash-strapped Meek scrambles to do whatever possible (and cheap) in getting his name out there, all the while trying to salvage some finances for the general election (should he get that far, of course). As Meg Whitman perfectly illustrated in California’s recent gubernatorial primary, money often speaks louder than words in the political arena, especially when your opponent doesn’t have the money to even put his or her words out there.

No surprise, I’d personally vote Meek over Greene in a heartbeat, but, from a purely political calculus, as in “how to defeat Crist and Rubio,” it makes no sense to me why any logical, thinking Democrat would vote Greene. Once Greene’s loony associations with the likes of Lindsay Lohan and Paris Hilton come to the forefront, I suspect even the most liberal Democrats will suddenly like the idea of Sen. Charlie Crist. Meek, to his credit, should at least perform well among African-Americans and self-described “progressives.” With Greene, such is no guarantee.

My current projections on races with both Meek and Greene…

Republican – 35%

Democrat – 33%

Independent – 32%

Crist – 23%/57%/55% = 45%

Rubio – 77%/7%/32% = 39%

Meek – 0%/36%/13% = 16%

Crist – 23%/73%/61% = 52%

Rubio – 77%/7%/32% = 39%

Greene – 0%/20%/7% = 9%

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CO-Sen: Colorado Dems are concerned that if Andrew Romanoff topples Sen. Michael Bennet in the primary, he’ll be badly hamstrung in the general by his refusal to take PAC money. This problem is compounded by the fact he’s been a pretty crappy fundraiser in general. Romanoff also supposedly said he won’t accept the DSCC’s help – though luckily for us, independent expenditure rules mean that he can’t tell the DS what to do. This all reminds of Russ Feingold demanding that outside groups not spend money on his 1998 re-election campaign, which he won by barely 3% in an otherwise very strong Democratic year.

Meanwhile, the U.S. Chamber of Commerce is up with a quarter million dollar ad buy on behalf of Jane Norton, touting an endorsement from Jan Brewer (whose instant celebrity strikes me as something on the level of a reality TV star).

FL-Sen: So it turns out that Kendrick Meek, who was initially left off some notices, will participate in Barack Obama’s August 18th Miami Beach fundraiser. But a Meek staffer tells Politico that he wants nothing less than a “prominent role” at the event and is “expecting the president to strongly reaffirm his endorsement.” If you have to float these kinds of things via blind leaks to the beltway press… well… that doesn’t exactly evince a great deal of confidence, does it?

Meanwhile, Tom Jensen confirms empirically something I’ve felt intuitively for a while (and mentioned on our panel at Netroots Nation): Charlie Crist is better off with Jeff Greene winning the Democratic primary rather than Kendrick Meek. In particular, black voters support Meek 39-33 over Crist, while they support Crist 61-17 over Greene.

IL-Sen: It’s confirmed: A federal judge ruled that the candidates on the special election ballot to fill out the remaining months of Sen. Roland Burris’s term will be the same as those on the regular election ballot – meaning Burris won’t be able to seek “re-election” for those two extra months (something he actually had considered doing). Phew.

KS-Sen: A final SurveyUSA poll of the GOP primary shows Todd Tiahrt, who has trailed badly for the entire race, closing the gap with Jerry Moran. Moran still leads by a sizable 49-39 margin, but two weeks ago, it was 50-36, and Tiahrt has gained 10 points over the last two months. The problem is, time’s up: The primary is tonight.

KY-Sen: The Club for Growth just endorsed Rand Paul, and undoubtedly it’s because of College Libertarian Society bullshit like this which comes out of his mouth:

The Republican running to replace outgoing Sen. Jim Bunning (R-Ky.) in the coal-mining hub of Kentucky said recently that Washington has no business formulating mine safety rules.

“The bottom line is: I’m not an expert, so don’t give me the power in Washington to be making rules,” Paul said at a recent campaign stop in response to questions about April’s deadly mining explosion in West Virginia, according to a profile in Details magazine. “You live here, and you have to work in the mines. You’d try to make good rules to protect your people here. If you don’t, I’m thinking that no one will apply for those jobs.”

“I know that doesn’t sound… I want to be compassionate, and I’m sorry for what happened, but I wonder: Was it just an accident?”

CA-Gov: Fellow humans of Earth! I have traveled back through time from the year 3000! And I come to tell you that in our wondrous and awesome future, the spending record for candidate self-funding is still held by Meg Whitman! I cannot tell you how much she spent in total, lest I create a temporal paradox and cause all of you never to have been born, but I can inform you that she has already spent one hundred million of your Earth dollars! Also, everyone in the future eats Dippin’ Dots!

Meanwhile, a more chronologically closer reporter informs us that Jerry Brown has $23 million on hand.

FL-Gov: The 11th Circuit Court of Appeals struck down Florida’s public financing law, whereby candidates whose opponents spend more than $25 million (as Rick Scott has) get added matching funds from the state. Apparently this system “chills free speech” (whatever). Bill McCollum is obviously none too happy, and is weighing a possible appeal – or an attack on another part of the law which limits the size of donations he can accept.

GA-Gov: Landmark Communications, a Republican pollster which says it has no ties to either candidate, is out with the first poll of the GOP runoff. They find Karen Handel leading Nathan Deal by a 46-37 margin. Deal, meanwhile, is out with a new ad, and props to the AJC’s Jim Galloway for getting the Deal campaign to cough up that the buy is for 850 gross ratings points in the Atlanta area. One rating point is equal to one percent of a potential audience, but because the same viewer might see the same ad more than once, you need a lot more than 100 GRPs to reach your full target audience. As things go, 850 is a pretty decent-sized buy, especially in an expensive market like Atlanta.

CA-47: This really doesn’t seem wise: Rep. Loretta Sanchez, locked in a competitive race with Assemblyman Van Tran, filed paperwork for state bid in 2014. She really couldn’t have waited until after November? Now-Rep. Tom McClintock (CA-04) did something similar last cycle, and it certainly did not seem to help him (he barely eked out a win in a decidedly red district). Speaking of Tran, by the way, here’s an interesting item from late last week: He secured the backing of the grifters running the Tea Party Express – not exactly a popular gang, I’m sure, in this 60% Obama district.

FL-08: You know how they say that if you wind up in prison, you should act all crazy on your first day so that the other inmates know better than to mess with you? Well, Alan Grayson’s tack seems to have been to act crazy so as to get his opponents to act even crazier and thus blow themselves up in the process. Republican state Rep. Kurt Kelly, reacting to Grayson’s absence during a vote on an Afghanistan war funding bill, spazzed: “He put our soldiers, our men and women in the military, in harm’s way and, in fact, maybe he wants them to die.” Said a Grayson spokesperson in response: “Kurt Kelly thinks the stupider he sounds, the more Republican votes he’ll get.” Heh.

HI-01: GOP Rep. Charles Djou is out with an internal poll from the Tarrance Group showing him up 50-42 over Colleen Hanabusa. Djou has about $380K on hand to Hanabusa’s $220K. I wonder if Hanabusa will release her own internal.

ID-01: I swear, some days it really feels like Bill Sali actually is running again. This time, apprentice fuckup Raul Labrador moved his campaign headquarters outside of the 1st Congressional District – a pretty remarkable feat given that Idaho has only two CDs. If this sounds extremely familiar, that’s because it is: Sali himself did the exact same thing, situating his campaign office in ID-02 as well. Let’s hope history repeats in November, too.

IL-10: Dem Dan Seals has donated $5,000 he received from ethically embattled Rep. Maxine Waters to charity – even though she gave that money to him last cycle. I wonder if other candidates will follow suit, ala Rangel.

NY-10: Even though he’s already spent an absurd $1.1 million and held 2008 challenger Kevin Powell to just 32% in the primary, Rep. Ed Towns is taking no chances in his rematch and is attempting to get Powell kicked off the ballot. However, Powell (who has raised very little and has just $30K on hand) collected 8,000 signatures, far more than the 1,250 he needed. So unless there are massive flaws (or fraud), this is going to be difficult for Towns.

WI-08: Organic farmer, Door County supervisor, and teabagger Marc Savard, who had raised very little, dropped out and endorsed roofing contractor Reid Ribble in the GOP primary. Ribble, who leads the fundraising field (but only has about $180K on hand), still faces former state Rep. Terri McCormick and current state Rep. Roger Roth. (And here’s a rather disturbing item we missed: While we noted retired radiologist Marc Trager’s departure from the race in mid-June, we were previously unaware that he committed suicide just a couple of weeks later.)

DCCC: Obama alert! The POTUS will do a fundraiser for the D-Trip on August 16 at the Los Angeles home of “ER” and “West Wing” executive produce John Wells. Nancy Pelosi and Chris Van Hollen are also expected to attend.