Month: August 2010

Deducing Total Fundraising from ActBlue Reports: Joe Sestak

   Quarterly fundraising reports are not enough for me.  I want to know how much a candidate is raising on a monthly basis.  Now that ActBlue commands a dominant share of Democratic fundraising, it is now possible to predict how much a candidate is raising before they file a quarterly report.  Here is my favorite Senate candidate, Joe Sestak, as an example.

Quarter #      ActBlue    Overall Report  %ActBlue

4, 2009        $242,000    $650,000        37.2

1, 2010        $200,000    $442,000        45.2

2, 2010        $665,000    $1,950,000      34.1

July 2010      $469,000    TBD             TBD

 Joe Sestak uses ActBlue on his campaign website to take online donations.  As a result, the % of money raised via ActBlue is surprisingly stable across quarters.  From this pattern, I can deduce that Sestak has raised $1.1-1.4 million in July (OK, and the first 2 days of August).  To take it further, I expect Sestak will raise $3-4 million this quarter.  Past performance is not a perfect predictor of the future, but the ActBlue info gives me evidence enough that Sestak is still a strong fundraiser.  Sestak will need all that money if he is going to beat Pat Toomey the Club for Growth.

 

By what margin will Bob Shamansky win?

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NV-Sen, NV-Gov: One Reid Leads, The Second Trails

Mason-Dixon for the Las Vegas Review-Journal (7/26-28, likely voters, 7/12-14 in parens, 6/1-3 in brackets):

Harry Reid (D-inc): 43 (44) [41]

Sharron Angle (R): 42 (37) [44]

Other: 2 (4) [3]

None of these: 7 (5) [4]

Undecided: 6 (10) [8]

(MoE: 4%)

With the last M-D poll done for the LVRJ a little too optimistic for Reid, the right-wing mouthpiece is out with a second poll in three weeks, leaving Jon Ralston to ponder whether the LVRJ has subtler motives here.

Papa Reid’s down 1, Angle’s up 5, and NotA is also up 2 from two weeks ago. Peeking into the guts of the poll gives us quite the Republican-leaning electorate, with Obama’s approval at a shockingly low 39/55 and a whopping 52% supporting a repeal of health care reform (well above the national average, where a plurality now oppose repeal). Both candidates remain about as popular as water fluoridation (oh wait, that’s actually popular), with Reid sporting a 38/51 and Angle only a few points better at 38/47.

Despite (or perhaps because of) Angle’s vendetta against the teeth of the residents of Washoe County, she still trails Reid in Nevada’s 2nd-most populous county 43-41; she loses the 800-pound gorilla Clark County to Reid 47-39. As you guessed, rural Nevada keeps her afloat where she’s more than doubling up Reid 56-27.

Mason-Dixon for the Las Vegas Review-Journal (7/26-7/28, likely voters, 7/12-14 in parens, 6/1-3 in brackets)

Rory Reid (D): 31 (36) [37]

Brian Sandoval (R): 50 (47) [51]

Other: 2 (3) [1]

None of these: 3 (7) [1]

Undecided: 14 (7) [10]

(MoE: ±4%)

Baby Reid, trailing by 11 two weeks ago, now trails by 19. He’s down 5 while Sandoval’s up 3. Sandoval continues to be popular, coming in at 49/17 while Rory Reid’s favorables remain underwater at 29/40. Sadly, his last name might be Rory’s albatross, with 33% of respondents saying they’d be less likely to vote for him and a measly 4% saying they’d be more likely to do so. Reid loses a good 18% of Dems to Sandoval and is losing Clark County 45-36; he does worse in Washoe (53-28) and worse still in the outlying counties (68-15).

Unfortunately, no racial crosstabs are given in these polls, but the sample was taken before Sandoval’s recent contraction of foot-in-mouth disease, which we hope isn’t contagious and won’t spread to his non-Hispanic looking kids. Whether that gives Rory Reid an opening in this state where Hispanics made up 15% of the electorate in 2008 remains to be seen in future polls. If we get more bi-weekly polls, great; if we don’t, then Jon Ralston’s onto something and the LVRJ is showing its true colors.

KY-Sen: Revenge of the Rogue Ophthalmologist?

SurveyUSA for the Louisville Courier-Journal and WHAS-TV (7/27-29, likely voters, 5/25-27 in parentheses):

Jack Conway (D): 43 (45)

Rand Paul (R): 51 (51)

Undecided: 5 (4)

(MoE: ±4.2%)

SurveyUSA is out with its second post-primary poll in Kentucky, and it’s significantly more bullish on Rand Paul’s chances than other outfits like PPP, giving Paul a 51-43 lead over Dem AG Jack Conway. This is largely unchanged from two months ago, with Paul holding steady and Conway down two points.

It’s tempting to dismiss this as float within the MoE, given that Paul hasn’t exactly had the best two months since winning the primary. As is traditional with SurveyUSA’s polls, the crosstabs tend to be a little counterintuitive. Two months ago, Paul was winning both men (54-44) and woman (48-46), but now the gender gap’s intensified: Paul’s now winning men 57-38, but women have supposedly shifted to Conway 49-46.

The sample’s also shifted slightly in terms of partisan ID, going from 54-40-5 D-R-I to 50-37-12. Given (undoubtedly) the high number of old school Dixiecrats here, it’s little surprise that more “Dems” opt for Paul than Republicans for Conway. Conway is improving among Dems though, losing 25% of them to Paul, down from 29% two months ago. The same holds true for Paul (maybe owing to his reconciliation with Mitch McConnell), losing 11% of Republicans now, down from 16% two months ago.

Regardless, it seems Conway will have to do a better job of holding Dems, and primary loser Dan Mongiardo’s recent endorsement asshattery surely isn’t doing Conway any favors. Maybe the doctor we have to worry about for now isn’t the rogue ophthalmologist, but Dr. Dan instead?

SSP Daily Digest: 8/2 (Afternoon Edition)

• WA-Sen: I’m not sure how this will work, practically speaking, but the two Tea Partiers in the race, rancher Clint Didier and fastener mogul Paul Akers, are “joining forces.” They’ll be doing joint ads and joint online forums for the remaining few weeks. They can’t, of course, be jointly voted-for, so I don’t know what the endgame is, but it probably doesn’t matter, as both have been polling in the single digits in polls of the jungle primary. Apparently, it does give them a better venue for airing their grievances with the GOP establishment’s selection of Dino Rossi as standard-bearer; maybe this way, Akers can distract the ref while Didier puts Rossi in a sleeper hold.

Also on the weird timing front, Washington’s Republican SoS, Sam Reed, is just out with a new book on the 2004 gubernatorial election and the protracted recount and court challenges he oversaw. Relations between Reed and the rest of the state Republicans were severely tested during the recount, seeing as how the scrupulous Reed wanted to, y’know, follow the rules. While the book doesn’t seem to paint Rossi in a terribly unfavorable light, it can’t help but remind everyone of his “perennial candidate” status.

• AZ-Gov: You might recall that NRA board member Owen Buz Mills recently ended his GOP primary campaign against the once-endangered, now-all-powerful Jan Brewer several weeks ago. Well, he’s not quite done, his spokesperson is now saying: he’s going to enter a Rob Simmons-style state of electoral limbo. Mills won’t be spending any more money on the race, but he will leave his name on the ballot. (Other dropouts Dean Martin and John Munger have filed papers of formal withdrawal from the race.)

• OR-Gov, OR-05: Now that Oregon has opted to join New York in the weird world of fusion voting, now it even has its own Independent Party trying to quirkily play it down the middle. Based on its online straw poll of members (with a vote total of a whopping 2,290), the IP gave its backing to Democrat John Kitzhaber in the gubernatorial race, but to Republican state Rep. Scott Bruun in OR-05 (instead of incumbent Dem Kurt Schrader).

• TX-Gov: A number of prominent Dallas business leaders have signed on to a letter announcing their support for Bill White in the gubernatorial race. About half of the signatories, a mix of moderate Republicans and independents, are, in fact, former Kay Bailey Hutchison supporters.

• WY-Gov: I think this trumps her earlier Wilford Brimley endorsement. State auditor Rita Meyer (the only woman in the four-way GOP primary field) got added to Sarah Palin’s stable of Mama Grizzlies late last week.

• AL-02, AL-05: The “generally conservative” Alabama Farmer’s Federation handed out helpful endorsements to two Dems today: not just to Rep. Bobby Bright (who seems to fit their profile well) but also to Steve Raby, running in the 5th. Raby seems well connected with the agriculture world through his former work for ex-Sen. Howell Heflin.

• MI-02, MI-03: A poll for the Grand Rapids Press, taken by Practical Political Consulting, looks at the GOP primaries in the two western Michigan open seats. In the 2nd (Peter Hoekstra’s seat), former NFL player and Family Research Council executive Jay Riemersma has a small lead at 22, followed by former state Rep. Bill Huizenga and teabagging businessman Bill Cooper, both at 15, and state Sen. Wayne Kuipers at 13. In the 3rd (Vern Ehlers’ seat), state Rep. Justin Amash (anointed as chosen one by the DeVos family) leads at 28, followed by African-American state Sen. Bill Hardiman at 23 and ex-Kent Co. Commissioner Steve Heacock (the moderate in the field, and Ehlers’ endorsee) at 17.

• FL-12: We keep mentally writing this race off due to Lori Edwards’ paltry fundraising, and then polling evidence to the contrary shows up. For the second time, the Edwards camp has released an internal poll giving them a lead in this R+6 open seat. Edwards leads GOP ex-state Rep. Dennis Ross 35-32 in a poll taken by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner. The catch here is one of the most legitimate Tea Party candidates anywhere is here: Randy Wilkinson, a Polk Co. Commissioner who briefly sought the GOP nomination before deciding to go the third-party route. Wilkinson polls at 20%, although we’ll have to see if the near-broke Wilkinson can keep those numbers up through November.

• TN-03: Newt Gingrich handed out a last-minute seal of approval in the GOP primary in the 3rd. He’s backing the more-or-less establishment candidate, former state GOP chair Robin Smith. Smith’s main opponent is Chuck Fleischmann, a partly-self-funding attorney who seems tighter with the Mike Huckabee crowd than the teabaggers.

• WA-03: The Beltway media seems to take it as an article of faith that GOP state Rep. Jaime Herrera is going to be Denny Heck’s opponent in November, but David Castillo shouldn’t be counted out. Not being on the ground, they wouldn’t pick up on the general sense of underwhelmingness that seems to surround Herrera, but it seems like they would, at some point, have noticed that nearly all the endorsements of consequence in the district have gone to Castillo. He got endorsements from the newspapers in Vancouver, Longview, and Centralia, as well as the out-of-district Seattle Times. AG Rob McKenna, probably the state’s best-liked Republican, had endorsed Castillo before Rep. Brian Baird’s retirement and Herrera’s entry, but he’s been pointedly sticking by his endorsement, hosting a Castillo fundraiser last week.

• House: Nate Silver’s out with a new toy that SSPers will certainly be interested in: having found that Democratic House candidates tend to overperform vis-à-vis presidential numbers in districts with lower median household income, he’s created a new index that’s a mashup of prez numbers and income, called the Partisan Propensity Index. (He looked at only results in open seat races, which eliminates the main problem with trying to fit House numbers on top of prez numbers, which is the overwhelming staying power of incumbents.) At the end of the day, it’s still not too different from PVI, inasmuch as Chet Edwards has the worst district of any Dem and Joe Cao has the worst district of any GOPer, but it does reflect the reality that suburban Sun Belt districts that are truly swingy at the presidential level are a harder nut for Dems to crack at the House level than rural Appalachian districts that are red at the presidential level.

• Rasmussen:

• NV-Gov: Rory Reid (D) 40%, Brian Sandoval (R) 50%

• OK-Gov: Jari Askins (D) 36%, Mary Fallin (R) 57%

• PA-Gov: Dan Onorato (D) 39%, Tom Corbett (R) 50%

• PA-Sen: Joe Sestak (D) 39%, Pat Toomey (R) 45%

• SC-Gov: Vincent Sheheen (D) 35%, Nikki Haley (R) 49%

• WA-Sen: Patty Murray (D-inc) 49%, Dino Rossi (R) 47%

• WA-Sen: Patty Murray (D-inc) 48%, Clint Didier (R) 45%

• WA-Sen: Patty Murray (D-inc) 48%, Paul Akers (R) 42%

• WI-Gov: Tom Barrett (D) 45%, Mark Neumann (R) 44%

• WI-Gov: Tom Barrett (D) 43%, Scott Walker (R) 50%

StephenCLE’s House Predictions 2010 – Early August Update

Another month, another edition of StephenCLE’s House Predictions.  

Last month, back on July 11th, I said that we were at a crossroads regarding the battle for the House, where the Republicans were one major problem/mistake by the Democrats away from surging toward re-taking the chamber.  Well, since then, it’s been one success after another for Team Blue, as the gulf oil spill has been plugged, financial reform was passed, unemployment benefits were extended, and the timeline for the Iraq pullout appears to be on schedule.  These might not necessarily be big items for independents but most of these will no doubt help base turnout in November.  Not only that, but Team Red has really hurt themselves with poor primary choices and candidate gaffes in recent weeks, especially in Nevada, Colorado, and Illinois (which will also be reflected in my Senate ratings to come later this week).  Bottom line, for the first month since I started this series, the red tide has ebbed, and Team Blue has gained back territory.

Beginning this month, I will be updating my House ratings twice a month.  I’ll keep that schedule probably until the end of the primary season, in which case it will move to once a week.    

Total House Math for August 2nd:

Old House – 256 Democrats, 179 Republicans

New House – 233 Democrats, 202 Republicans

National Swing – Republicans +23

Democratic Pickups (4) – DE-1, IL-10, LA-2, HI-1

Republican Pickups (27) – AL-2, AR-1, AR-2, FL-2, IL-11, IN-8, KS-3, LA-3, MD-1, MI-1, MI-7, MS-1, NH-2, ND-1, NY-24, NY-29, OH-1, OH-15, PA-11, TN-4, TN-6, TN-8, TX-17, VA-2, VA-5, WA-3,

Pickup Changes from last month:

Democrat to Republican – IL-11

Republican to Democrat – CO-4, WV-1, NH-1, NV-3

August Race Ratings Changes –

1.Illinois-17 – Solid D to Likely D – A shocking internal poll from last week gives the little known Republican challenger, Bobby Schilling, a lead against longtime incumbent Phil Hare.  Schilling hasn’t raised much this cycle and has kept a low profile, so I doubt the poll is correct, but in either case, this is enough to at least put the race on the board, especially because coattails in Illinois will definitely be breaking in the Republicans’ favor

2.Colorado-3 – Lean D to Likely D – With the GOP ticket imploding in Colorado, it’s very unlikely that they’ll be able to take out Salazar

3.Virginia-9 – Lean D to Likely D – Some recent polling here has shown Boucher with a double digit lead over his opponent, so that’s good enough for me to put this one to Likely.

4.Indiana-9 – Toss Up to Lean D – Much like the previous, Baron Hill has seen some positive polling in his race, so I think he deserves a more favorable rating as well.

5.Colorado-4 – Toss Up to Lean D – She may not be as lucky as John Hickenlooper, but the implosion of the GOP ticket in Colorado looks like it could really help Betsy Markey.  Tom Tancredo’s appearance on the ballot could give some people here Marilyn Musgrave redux jitters.

6.Iowa-3 – Toss Up to Lean D – I didn’t want to move this initially, as I’m still really worried about bad coattails in Iowa and Boswell’s relative weakness as a rep, but Brad Zaun has shot himself in the foot several times now with regard to farm subsidies and flood relief. (Really?)  Boswell has to be favored now.

7.Massachusetts-10 – Toss Up to Lean D – Pretty much all the pundits are taking this one out of the toss-up category.  I’m not really sure why, but I’ll be a follower on this one.

8.West Virginia-1 – Toss Up to Lean D – Man, total egg on face.  Can you believe it, following the primary I had this one at Likely R.  Now with Joe Manchin topping the ballot, so long as Oliverio doesn’t totally piss off the base with his anti-Pelosi, democrat-hating rhetoric, he’s in decent shape.

9.Alaska-1 – Likely R to Solid R – With Lisa Murkowski and Sean Parnell looking to clean up in the great white north, Don Young would need a major scandal to burst over his head to lose this year.  Safe.

10.California-19 – Likely R to Solid R – Surprisingly, I haven’t seen any action on the D side in this open seat race, so I take it off the board as well.

11.Ohio-15 – Lean R to Toss Up – With generally positive polling for both Lee Fisher and Ted Strickland recently (except for Scotty Rass of course) the situation here is looking better for Mary Kilroy.  She’s still locked in a very difficult fight though.

12.Illinois-11 – Toss Up/Dem Retention to Toss Up/Rep Pickup – Sometimes coattails can be a bitch, but in this case, Adam Kinzinger is really doing some good things in fundraising and on the campaign trail too.  Debbie Halvorson is in for a real fight here.

13.New Hampshire-1 – Toss Up/Rep Pickup to Toss Up/Dem Retention – Just when I thought New Hampshire was jumping off the deep end toward the GOP, polling comes out giving Carol Shea-Porter a lead, plus she actually cracked 200k in fundraising last quarter!  Strong moves, and that makes me change this race out of the red column.

14.Nevada-3 – Toss Up/Rep Pickup to Toss Up/Dem Retention – Dina Titus is looking better now than she did a month ago as well, as not only does polling show her with a slight edge, but also the vast improvement of Harry Reid’s election chances and Brian Sandoval’s recent gaffes have the democratic side looking much better throughout Nevada.  I balked to move it to Lean though, because of Titus’s weakness as a representative.

15.Florida-12 – Likely R to Lean R – As unlikely as this race seems given the PVI and the fundraising race, Lori Edwards supposedly is tied or leading in several polls here.  I would think that after the primary that whoever the R candidate is would be able to consolidate support, but you never know.  As weird a cycle as this looks to be in Florida, I don’t think we can assume anything.

2010 House Big Board (as of June update)

Solid Dem – 162 seats:

AL-7, AZ-4, AZ-7, AR-4, CA-1, CA-5, CA-6, CA-7, CA-8, CA-9, CA-10, CA-11, CA-12, CA-13, CA-14, CA-15, CA-16, CA-17, CA-18, CA-20, CA-23, CA-27, CA-28, CA-29, CA-30, CA-31, CA-32, CA-33, CA-34, CA-35, CA-36, CA-37, CA-38, CA-39, CA-43, CA-51, CA-53, CO-1, CO-2, CT-1, CT-2, CT-3, FL-3, FL-11, FL-17, FL-19, FL-20, FL-23, GA-4, GA-5, GA-13, HI-2, IL-1, IL-2, IL-3, IL-4, IL-5, IL-7, IL-8, IL-9, IL-12, IN-1, IN-7, IA-1, IA-2, ME-2, MD-2, MD-3, MD-4, MD-5, MD-7, MD-8, MA-1, MA-2, MA-3, MA-4, MA-5, MA-6, MA-7, MA-8, MA-9, MI-5, MI-12, MI-13, MI-14, MI-15, MN-4, MN-5, MN-7, MN-8, MS-2, MO-1, MO-5, NV-1, NJ-1, NJ-6, NJ-8, NJ-9, NJ-10, NJ-13, NM-3, NY-2, NY-4, NY-5, NY-6, NY-7, NY-8, NY-9, NY-10, NY-11, NY-12, NY-14, NY-15, NY-16, NY-17, NY-18, NY-21, NY-22, NY-27, NY-28, NC-1, NC-4, NC-7, NC-12, NC-13, OH-9, OH-10, OH-11, OH-17, OK-2, OR-1, OR-3, OR-4, PA-1, PA-2, PA-13, PA-14, RI-2, SC-6, TN-5, TN-9, TX-9, TX-15, TX-16, TX-18, TX-20, TX-25, TX-27, TX-28, TX-29, TX-30, VT-1, VA-3, VA-8, WA-1, WA-2, WA-6, WA-7, WA-9, WV-3, WI-2, WI-4

Likely Dem – 34 seats:

California-47 (Sanchez)

Colorado-3 (Salazar)

Colorado-7 (Perlmutter)

Connecticut-4 (Himes)

Connecticut-5 (Murphy)

Delaware-1 (Open)

Georgia-2 (Bishop)

Georgia-12 (Barrow)

Illinois-17 (Hare)

Indiana-2 (Donnelly)

Kentucky-3 (Yarmuth)

Louisiana-2 (Cao)

Maine-1 (Pingree)

Michigan-9 (Peters)

Minnesota-1 (Walz)

Missouri-3 (Carnahan)

North Carolina-2 (Etheridge)

New Jersey-12 (Holt)

New Mexico-1 (Heinrich)

New York-13 (McMahon)

New York-20 (Murphy)

New York-25 (Maffei)

North Carolina-11 (Shuler)

Ohio-6 (Wilson)

Ohio-13 (Sutton)

Ohio-18 (Space)

Pennsylvania-3 (Dahlkemper)

Pennsylvania-4 (Altmire)

Pennsylvania-17 (Holden)

Rhode Island-1 (Open)

Utah-2 (Matheson)

Virginia-9 (Boucher)

Virginia-11 (Connelly)

Wisconsin-3 (Kind)

Lean Dem – 25 seats:

Arizona-1 (Kirkpatrick)

Arizona-8 (Giffords)

Colorado-4 (Markey)

Florida-8 (Grayson)

Georgia-8 (Marshall)

Hawaii-1 (Djou)

Idaho-1 (Minnick)

Iowa-3 (Boswell)

Indiana-9 (Hill)

Kentucky-6 (Chandler)

Massachusetts-10 (Open)

Mississippi-4 (Taylor)

Missouri-4 (Skelton)

New Jersey-3 (Adler)

New York-23 (Owens)

North Carolina-8 (Kissell)

Oregon-5 (Schrader)

Pennsylvania-8 (Murphy)

Pennsylvania-10 (Carney)

Pennsylvania-12 (Critz)

South Carolina-5 (Spratt)

South Dakota-1 (Herseth)

Texas-23 (Rodriguez)

West Virginia-1 (Open)

Wisconsin-8 (Kagen)

Toss Up – 28 seats:

Alabama-2 (Bright)

Arizona-5 (Mitchell)

California-11 (McNerney)

Florida-2 (Boyd)

Florida-22 (Klein)

Florida-24 (Kosmas)

Florida-25 (Open)

Illinois-10 (Open)

Illinois-11 (Halvorson)

Illinois-14 (Foster)

Maryland-1 (Kratovil)

Michigan-1 (Open)

Michigan-7 (Schauer)

Nevada-3 (Titus)

New Hampshire-1 (Shea-Porter)

New Mexico-2 (Teague)

New York-1 (Bishop)

New York-19 (Hall)

North Dakota-1 (Pomeroy)

Ohio-15 (Kilroy)

Ohio-16 (Boccieri)

Pennsylvania-7 (Open)

Tennessee-4 (Davis)

Tennessee-8 (Open)

Texas-17 (Edwards)

Virginia-5 (Perriello)

Washington-3 (Open)

Wisconsin-7 (Open)

Lean Rep – 19 seats:

Arkansas-1 (Open)

California-3 (Lungren)

California-45 (Bono Mack)

Florida-12 (Open)

Indiana-8 (Open)

Kansas-3 (Open)

Minnesota-6 (Bachmann)

Mississippi-1 (Childers)

Nebraska-2 (Terry)

New Hampshire-2 (Open)

New York-24 (Arcuri)

New York-29 (Open)

Ohio-1 (Driehaus)

Ohio-12 (Tiberi)

Pennsylvania-6 (Gerlach)

Pennsylvania-11 (Kanjorski)

Pennsylvania-15 (Dent)

Virginia-2 (Nye)

Washington-8 (Reichert)

Likely Rep – 12 seats:

Alabama-5 (Open)

Arizona-3 (Open)

Arkansas-2 (Open)

California-44 (Calvert)

Indiana-3 (Open)

Kansas-2 (Jenkins)

Kansas-4 (Open)

Michigan-3 (Open)

Missouri-8 (Emerson)

South Carolina-2 (Wilson)

Texas-32 (Sessions)

Virginia-1 (Wittman)

Solid Rep – 155 seats:

AL-1, AL-3, AL-4, AL-6, AK-1, AZ-2, AZ-6, AR-3, CA-2, CA-4, CA-19, CA-21, CA-22, CA-24, CA-25, CA-26, CA-40, CA-41, CA-42, CA-46, CA-48, CA-49, CA-50, CA-52, CO-5, CO-6, FL-1, FL-4, FL-5, FL-6, FL-7, FL-9, FL-10, FL-13, FL-14, FL-15, FL-16, FL-18, FL-21, GA-1, GA-3, GA-7, GA-9, GA-10, GA-11, ID-2, IL-6, IL-13, IL-15, IL-16, IL-18, IL-19, IN-4, IN-5, IN-6, IA-4, IA-5, KS-1, KY-1, KY-2, KY-4, KY-5, LA-1, LA-3, LA-4, LA-5, LA-6, LA-7, MD-6, MI-2, MI-4, MI-6, MI-8, MI-10, MI-11, MN-2, MN-3, MS-3, MO-2, MO-6, MO-7, MO-9, MT-1, NE-1, NE-3, NV-2, NJ-2, NJ-5, NJ-4, NJ-7, NJ-11, NY-3, NY-26, NC-3, NC-5, NC-6, NC-9, NC-10, OH-2, OH-3, OH-4, OH-5, OH-7, OH-8, OH-14, OK-1, OK-3, OK-4, OK-5, OR-2, PA-5, PA-9, PA-16, PA-18, PA-19, SC-1, SC-3, SC-4, TN-1, TN-2, TN-3, TN-6, TN-7, TX-1, TX-2, TX-3, TX-4, TX-5, TX-6, TX-7, TX-8, TX-10, TX-11, TX-12, TX-13, TX-14, TX-19, TX-21, TX-22, TX-24, TX-26, TX-31, UT-1, UT-3, VA-4, VA-6, VA-7, VA-10, WA-4, WA-5, WV-2, WI-1, WI-5, WI-6, WY-1

MN-Gov: All Dems Lead Emmer, Dayton Leads Primary

Princeton Survey Research for Minneapolis Star-Tribune (7/26-29, registered voters, no trendlines):

Mark Dayton (DFL): 40

Margaret Anderson Kelliher (DFL): 30

Matt Entenza (DFL): 17

Undecided: 12

(MoE: ±7.8%)

Mark Dayton (DFL): 40

Tom Emmer (R): 30

Tom Horner (I): 13

Undecided: 17

Margaret Anderson Kelliher (DFL): 38

Tom Emmer (R): 29

Tom Horner (I): 13

Undecided: 18

Matt Entenza (DFL): 36

Tom Emmer (R): 31

Tom Horner (I): 15

Undecided: 17

(MoE: ±4.5%)

Things haven’t been going so well for Tom Emmer lately, who at one point immediately after the GOP convention had a unity-bounce lead in the polls (or at least in the Rasmussen/SurveyUSA likely voter universe). In the last few weeks, he’s released a weak fundraising report, been the target of big advertising blitzes from both Matt Entenza and a Dem 527, and won’t be able to ever eat in a restaurant in Minnesota again, as his waitstaff is likely to be serving him loogie sandwiches for the foreseeable future. On top of all that comes the new Star-Tribune poll, which may be the most bullish on DFL chances of any poll yet: it gives all three DFL candidates, even Entenza, a decent lead over Emmer.

They also look at the DFL primary, although the 7.8% MoE is pretty absurd. At any rate, the results mirror what other polls of the primary have found: Mark Dayton with a lead of 10 or so over Margaret Anderson Kelliher. The DFL-endorsed Kelliher also got the Star-Tribune’s endorsement over the weekend. Whether those endorsements help her to overcome Dayton and Entenza’s money, well, we’ll have to wait until Aug. 10 to find out.

CO-Sen, CO-Gov: Poll Roundup (Or How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love Plagiarism)

SurveyUSA for the Denver Post/KUSA-TV (7/27-29, likely and actual voters for the primary, registered voters for the general, 6/15-17 in parens):

Michael Bennet (D-inc): 45 (53)

Andrew Romanoff (D): 48 (36)

Undecided: 8 (11)

(MoE: ±4.3%)

Ken Buck (R): 50 (53)

Jane Norton (R): 41 (37)

Undecided: 9 (10)

(MoE: ±4.1%)

Michael Bennet (D-inc): 43 (43)

Ken Buck (R): 43 (46)

“Third Party”: 7 (6)

Undecided: 7 (5)

Michael Bennet (D-inc): 46 (44)

Jane Norton (R): 43 (47)

“Third Party”: 7 (5)

Undecided: 5 (4)

Andrew Romanoff (D): 44 (40)

Ken Buck (R): 44 (49)

“Third Party”: 6 (6)

Undecided: 6 (5)

Andrew Romanoff (D): 40 (41)

Jane Norton (R): 45 (45)

“Third Party”: 8 (8)

Undecided: 7 (7)

(MoE: ±3.2%)

Yup, shit just got real for Michael Bennet. After dwarfing Andrew Romanoff in terms of both polls and fundraising for months, Bennet’s support has taken a major hit from the stream of negative ads that Romanoff has launched in recent days. I suppose it shouldn’t be surprising, considering that voters have no fealty to an incumbent appointed by an unpopular departing Governor who’s still struggling to project himself as more Senatorial than Some Dude, but it’s still remarkable, nonetheless.

Perhaps most disturbing for Michael Bennet is that his pushback against this poll, in the form of his own internal poll, was less than forceful. Bennet’s poll, conducted by Harstad Strategic Research from 7/28-29, has Romanoff trailing by only 41-37. Yikes!

Gubernatorial numbers:

Scott McInnis (R): 39 (57)

Dan Maes (R): 43 (29)

Undecided: 18 (14)

(MoE: ±4.1%)

John Hickenlooper (D): 48 (43)

Scott McInnis (R): 43 (47)

Undecided: 9 (4)

John Hickenlooper (D): 50 (44)

Dan Maes (R): 41 (45)

Undecided: 9 (6)

John Hickenlooper (D): 46

Dan Maes (R): 24

Tom Tancredo (ACP): 24

Undecided: 7

John Hickenlooper (D): 44

Scott McInnis (R): 25

Tom Tancredo (ACP): 26

Undecided: 6

(MoE: ±3.2%)

Is John Hickenlooper the luckiest candidate this cycle, or what? For what it’s worth, a Republican poll of otherwise unknown origin, flashed to Chris Cillizza, apparently has McInnis ahead of the unknown, poorly-funded Dan Maes by 15% — and Jane Norton ahead of Ken Buck by 45-40 in the Senate primary.

Senate and Gubernatorial Rankings – August

I’m going to do one of these on the first Monday of every month between now and election day. Though I expect movement in most of these races it is time to do away with the tossup cop out and get off the fence!

Rankings are ‘Tilt’ (less than 5 point race), ‘Lean’ (5-10 point race) and ‘Favored ‘(10-20 point race). Anything beyond that is ‘Solid’ for either party.

SENATE

Dem Tilt

IL (Absolute deadheat but since the topic of conversation is all about Kirk I’m giving it Alexi in such a blue state.)

NV (I’m less certain this is has become clear cut as some but Reid has definitely moved ahead at least for now.)

WI (Feingold never wins by whopping margins and races in Wisconsin always seem closer than most.)

WA (No fireable offence from Murray and decent approvals. Rossi has baggage and is only close because of the cycle.)

Rep Tilt

PA (Small lead for Toomey right now but I expect Sestak to improve his position when he gets better known.)

CO (Until the latest SurveyUSA poll both Buck and Norton lead both Dems. Until the primary shakes itself out we aren’t going to see movement.)

KY (Paul has the lead because he has kept his mouth shut lately. Hopefully ads and debates will help Conway.)

OH (I fear this is a huge missed opportunity. Portman is ripe for attack but Fisher doesn’t have resources to do it.)

MO (Will be close until the end and I still think Robin can do it despite the unsavory environment.)

NH (Ayotte has clearly been hurt recently but I’m skeptical Hodes can get over the top in this one.)

Dem Lean

CA (Small percentage lead for Boxer but much harder for a Republican to close that gap in real votes in California.)

FL*(I’m counting Crist as a Dem pickup though I still think there is a chance he caucuses with the GOP.)

Rep Lean

NC (Don’t see Burr losing here. Not this year, not with his CoH advantage.)

Dem Favored

CT (Blumenthal should be fine since he managed to ride out his exaggerations far better than Mark Kirk.)

WV (Without Capito in the race Manchin should be fine so long as he doesn’t coast.)

Rep Favored

IN (Ellsworth’s problem is name recognition and bad environment. He will close here fast but not sure fast enough.)

LA (Melancon is doing well just to keep this remotely competitive. The electorate wants someone to oppose Obama 100%.)

AR (Blanche shocked everybody once so can she do it again? No. Though I think it will be closer by election day.)

DE (Coons will surprise many and narrow the gap further as we go on but like IN I’m not sure it will be enough.)

We can put ND safely in the GOP column.

GOVERNORS

Dem Tilt

OR (Polls are tied but have to give it to Kitzhaber for his campaigning skills and the lean of the state.)

MN (Emmer is killing himself rather than anything the Dems are doing. I think Dayton will get a clear win in the end.)

RI*(I’m counting Chafee as a Dem since he is arguably more liberal than the actual Dem nominee.)

MD (O’Malley hasn’t committed a fireable offense and has decent approvals. Lean of the state should be enough.)

FL (The Republicans have nuked each other and Chiles looks like a non-factor.)

MA (Deval seems to be improving his approvals and Cahill means he has a decent shot at re-election.)

CA (Once Brown starts running ads he should be ok in such a blue state.)

Rep Tilt

GA (Barnes is an underdog in a red state but he is closer than he should be. Both Republicans have skeletons.)

IL (Brady leads but the lean of the state may be enough yet for Quinn if he can paint his opponent as too far right.)

ME (LePage is ahead but like in RI anything could happen here including an indie win.)

OH (Polling is mixed here but my best guess is Kasich has a narrow lead. Strickland can still pull it out though.)

VT (Dubie ahead here but probably more to do with name recognition than anything else. Suspect it will be close.)

TX (Bill White is doing a great job here but I expect the year and state is just too Republican.)

NM (Martinez with a small lead but Denish can win if she is able to seperate herself from Bill Richardson.)

WI (Small leads for both Republicans but Barrett was as good a nominee as Dems could get here. Still possible.)

Dem Lean

CO (What a mess for the GOP! Hick should win easily here unless McInnis drops out post-primary.)

CT (Lamont really should win this one and I think he will.)

Rep Lean

AZ (Great change in fortunes for Brewer. Maybe Goddard can make this close but I have my doubts.)

MI (Post-primary this may get interesting, especially if Hoekstra is the GOP nominee.)

PA (Onorato will close when he gets his name recognition up but PA has a pattern here that likely won’t change.)

OK (Not as big a Fallin lead as I expected but the year and state makes it very hard for Askins.)

Dem Favored

HI (Abercrombie has a big lead and should win this going away.)

Rep Favored

IA (Branstad is popular and Culver is not. Only one outcome looks likely here.)

NV (Maybe Harry’s improving fortunes helps Rory but Sandoval is no Sharron Angle!)

AL (Sparks is probably as good as it gets for Dems but a fresh face in Bentley in a GOP year makes this very tough.)

ID (Not as big a lead for the GOP as one would expect but it is still Idaho.)

KS (Brownback isn’t exactly loved by the entire KS GOP but I can’t see anything but a Holland defeat here.)

SC (Sheheen may shock people but again, red state in a terrible year for Dems means Governor Haley.)

SD (Daugaaurd is popular and once again, red state, GOP year.)

TN (McWherter is not his dad and the polls are ugly.)

UT (Herbert has anemic poll leads but it is Utah!)

Projection

SENATE – GOP +5

GOVERNORS – GOP +5

August Primaries to Watch

After a slow few weeks in late June and July, August promises to be quite exciting, primary-wise!

Here are some races to watch in August:

8/3:

MO-Sen (R) – Blunt v. teabagger

MO-04 (R) – Free-for-all

MO-07 (R) – open seat

Proposition C – It’s about NULLIFICATION!

KS-Sen (R) – Moran/Tiahrt

KS-01, 04 (R) – open seats

KS-03 (R) – Yoder v. Lightner

KS-04 (D) – will Raj Goyle get VicRawl’d?

MI-Gov (D), (R)

MI-01, 02, 03 (R) – open seats

MI-07 (R) – Rooney/Walberg

MI-09 (R) – Rocky v. Welday

MI-12 (D)

MI-13 (D) – Kilpatrick weak

8/5: (hey, two primaries in one week!)

TN-Gov (R) – open seat

TN-03 (R) – Wamp’s open seat

TN-04 (R) – clusterfuck

TN-06 (R) – open seat

TN-08 (R) – Kirkland v. Flinn

TN-09 (D) – impending Willie Herenton fail

8/10:

CT-Gov (D) and (R) – Lamont/Malloy and Fedele/Foley

CT-Sen (R) – ghost of Rob Simmons?

CT-02, 04, 05 (R)

CO-Gov (R) – McInnis and Maes double fail

CO-Sen (D) – Bennet v. Romanoff

CO-Sen (R) – the devil wears prada?

CO-03, 07 (R)

GA-Gov (R) – Palin Handel v. Newt Deal

GA-07, 12 (R) – more runoffs

GA-09 (R) – Graves v. Hawkins round 3

MN-Gov (D) – Dayton v. Kelliher

8/17:

WA-Sen

WA-03

WY-Gov (D), (R)

8/24:

AZ-Sen (D), (R)

AZ-03 (R) – Shadegg’s open seat

AZ-01, 05, 08 (R)

VT-Gov (D)

FL-Gov (R) – (yes!!!!!!)

FL-Sen (D) – Meek v. Greene

FL-12, 25 (R) – open seats

FL-02, 08, 22, 24 (R)

FL-02 (D) – challenge to a Blue Dog from the left, v4.1

FL-17 (D) – Meek’s open seat

AK-Gov (R) – Parnell and the ghost of Palin?

AK-Sen (R) – Murkowski v. Palin proxy

8/28:

LA-Sen (R) – Vitter v. Traylor

LA-02 (D) – Lafonta v. Richmond

LA-03 (R)

WV-Sen (D), (R) – Byrd special primary

SSP Daily Digest: 8/2 (Morning Edition)

  • CT-Sen: Linda McMahon has already spent at least $22 million on her senatorial bid – and though she has plans to shell out much more, she’s already the fourth-largest self-funder of all time. The good news is that the top three are pretty uninspiring: Jon Corzine (NJ-Sen 2000: $60 million, 50.1% in general); Blair Hull (IL-Sen 2004: $29 million, 11% in primary); Michael Huffington (CA-Sen 1994: $28 million, 45% in general). Check out the second page of CQ’s piece to see who rounds out the rest of the top 10. Only three actually won a seat in the Senate, and all of them served one term or less – by choice!
  • FL-Sen: Ah – live by the zillionaire asshole, die by the zillionaire asshole. Joe Trippi, who apparently thought he could make a buck by helping schmuckface Jeff Greene run negative ads against Kendrick Meek, has been axed. This is pretty unsurprising, in light of an in-depth story by the St. Pete Times which catalogs just how much of a jerkass Greene actually is. Here’s a representative sample:

    • Adam Lambert worked as captain of Greene’s 145-foot yacht, Summerwind, earlier this year.

    “He has total disregard for anybody else,” chuckled Lambert, who said he was Greene’s 20th and 22nd Summerwind captain (No. 21 quit after a few hours with Greene).

    “I don’t think I ever once had an actual conversation with him. It was always, ‘I should just get rid of you, what f—— good are you? You’re just a f—— boat driver. You’re the third-highest paid employee in my corporation and I should just get rid of you,’ ” Lambert, 43, recalled by phone from a yacht in Croatia. “It didn’t bother me. I just felt sorry for the man. He doesn’t seem very happy.”

    Quite apropos of all this, Dave Catanese takes a look at the “band of others” which has come together to run Charlie Crist’s campaign. Catanese says that Crist’s team “is staffed by a collection of misfits who run the gamut from longtime loyalists to out-of-state hired guns. They have worked for Democrats, for Republicans and even for prominent independents. As with Crist, ideology appears to take a back seat to winning office.”

  • MO-Sen: Mostly-failed teabagger Chuck Purgason has an internal poll out (at least, I think it’s an internal) from Magellan Strategies… but that’s not really the point. There are two super-huge problems with this poll. First off, there are literally zero undecideds – Purgason claims he’s beating Dem Robin Carnahan 56-44. Secondly, releasing a general election poll just days before an almost hopeless primary looks extremely unserious. I don’t give a damn about Purgason, but I don’t think either of these issues make Magellan look particularly good.
  • GA-Gov: Barack Obama is visiting Atlanta to speak to a disabled veterans convention and to host a DNC fundraiser today, but Dem gubernatorial candidate Roy Barnes will be visiting other parts of the state. Several prominent Dems are planning to attend the events, including Labor Comm’r Michael Thurmond (our senate nominee), and Reps. David Scott and Sanford Bishop, the latter of whom has a competitive race this fall.
  • NY-Gov: Steve Levy has completed his transition from widely disliked xenophobic DINO to memorable Republican loser: He said he wouldn’t seek the Independence Party’s line this fall, and formally gave his backing to Rick Lazio.  Meanwhile, Elizabeth Benjamin says a source tells her that another disgruntled Republican, the vile Carl Paladino, is doing the opposite – he’s reconsidering his decision not to run on a third-party line and may run on his own “Taxpayers Party” line if he loses the GOP primary in September. Apparently, the teabaggers are taking the long view here, hoping that they can create a “true” conservative rival to the, ah, Conservative Party, even if that means helping Andrew Cuomo win the gubernatorial race.
  • WY-Gov: Mason-Dixon did a poll of the Wyoming gubernatorial primaries for the Casper Star-Tribune. On the GOP side, state Auditor Rita Meyer leads with 27, followed by former U.S. Attorney Matt Mead with 24, House Speaker Colin Simpson with 17, and former legislator and state Ag. Director Ron Micheli with 12. For Democrats, former state Dem chair Leslie Petersen leads pilot and former University of Wyoming football star Pete Gosar by a 30-22 margin.
  • FL-08: Franking – the privilege that allows members of Congress to mail out nominally “informational” materials to constituents at taxpayer expense – is one of those things that’s usually a lame non-issue… until it’s an issue. Incumbents have been pushing the boundaries of proper franking for centuries, and it rarely gets traction in campaigns, but I really wonder if Alan Grayson’s gone too far with this one. He recently sent out a DVD to 100,000 homes in his district (at a cost of $73K) titled “Watch Congressman Grayson in Action!” featuring a few dozen clips of his greatest hits in office. Maybe the video will be popular, maybe no one will care, maybe some Republicans will howl and get ignored – we’ll see.
  • IL-10 (PDF): It’s a bit musty, but Mike Memoli got his hands on an internal poll from the Dan Seals campaign taken in mid-May by Anzalone-Liszt. The numbers are a damn sight better than most Dem internals, showing Seals with a 46-38 lead over Republican Bob Dold, and a 41-32 lead among independents. Despite the poll’s age, I’d be surprised if things had changed a whole lot since then, given that the air war hasn’t really been joined yet.
  • IL-13: Dem Scott Harper had apparently been trying to shop the results of an informed ballot test on a recent internal poll from Global Strategy Group but didn’t seem to get many bites. So he finally decided to pull a Raul Labrador and release the proper toplines, despite their utter – almost extreme – suckitude. Rep. Judy Biggert leads Harper by a 55-29 margin. The most ridonc thing is that Biggert felt compelled to put out her own, not-exactly-dueling internal in response. I say that because the numbers in Biggert’s survey (taken by American Viewpoint) show her up 61-28. This was really not a well-managed move by the Harper campaign.
  • KY-06: Republican Andy Barr, formerly a top legal aide to disgraced former Gov. Ernie Fletcher, is coming under fire for his shoddy handling of a response to a government records request under the state’s equivalent to the Freedom of Information Act when he worked for Fletcher. In a 2007 report, then-AG Greg Stumbo (a Dem) said that Barr’s failure to produce records on account of their alleged non-existence meant that he was responsible for “records mismanagement.” However, Stumbo’s office did not determine that Barr had actually violated the state open records law.
  • LA-02: The DCCC added state Rep. Cedric Richmond to its Red to Blue program on Friday. This tells me two things: First, the D-Trip doesn’t think much of Richmond’s primary challenger, fellow state Rep. Juan LaFonta. Second, DC Dems are concerned enough about Rep. Joe Cao’s staying power that they’re getting involved in a reasonably contested primary, something they have largely avoided this cycle. Now in fairness, Louisiana has a very late primary – August 28th – with an absurdly late runoff on October 2nd. So I can understand wanting to avoid a pressured one-month campaign. Still, this suggests to me that this race is not the “gimme” we might have once imagined.
  • NY-01: Stuck behind Newsday’s paywall is a story which says that GOPer Christopher Cox has filed a lawsuit seeking to invalidate fellow Republican Randy Altschuler’s ballot petitions. This is exactly the kind of war that Democrats in New York have been hoping for. I can’t wait to read more about it. And don’t forget that there’s a third candidate in the race, George Demos, who is being publicly slammed for alleged ethical lapses while he was an SEC attorney by a former supporter, John Catsimatidis. You may recall that Cox is engaged to Catsimatidis’s daughter, which explains the old man’s turnabout.
  • NY-15: You’ve probably already seen this, but Barack Obama said in an interview with CBS News that Charlie Rangel should “end his career with dignity.” Really wonder if the old bull is going to keep fighting this thing.
  • NY-24: Mmm… donuts. The owner of a local donut shop, Michael Sadallah, filed a lawsuit trying to knock Republican Richard Hanna off the Independence Party line. Sadallah, an Independence Party member, has also donated to Rep. Mike Arcuri. Oral arguments are this week – good luck, dude!
  • OK-05: True Some Dude James Lankford just earned the endorsement of third-place finisher (and state Rep.) Mike Thompson, who scored 18% in the first round despite spending $900,000. Lankford took 34% and former state Rep. Kevin Calvey had 33%. Lankford and Calvey face off in an August 24th runoff.
  • Kansas: A rare bit of good news on the voter registration front: Over the last year in Kansas, “Democrats gained 11,260 voters, rising to 460,318; unaffiliated voters increased 38,764 to 490,395, and Republican ranks increased 3,189 to 744,975.” Obviously, that’s a pretty sizable edge for the GOP, but it’s still nice to see Dem gains both in absolute numbers and percentages outstrip the Republicans – especially in such a red state, and especially in a year like this.