Month: August 2010

Univ. of South Florida Polytechnic for New York Times Newspapers (FL) (7/24-28, likely voters, no trendlines):

Kendrick Meek (D): 12

Marco Rubio (R): 30

Charlie Crist (I): 41

Undecided: 17

Jeff Greene (D): 16

Marco Rubio (R): 29

Charlie Crist (I): 37

Undecided: 18

(MoE: ±4%)

Here’s another few data points to throw on the ever-growing heap in Florida, courtesy of the “Florida Poll” (apparently a joint venture of the New York Times Newspapers of Florida and the Univ. of South Florida). The numbers here pretty clearly match last week’s Quinnipiac poll, if not even more bullish on Charlie Crist’s current chances… and even slightly more bearish on Kendrick Meek, who seems to be dwindling down into Alan Schlesinger territory here (Schlesinger, if you’ve forgotten, was the Republican who became irrelevant and sank into the single digits in the 2006 Connecticut Senate race once Joe Lieberman became an indie/de facto Republican).

Interestingly, their numbers contradict a point that Tom Jensen made a few days ago, that Charlie Crist would seem to benefit more from Jeff Greene as the Dem opponent than Meek. Here, Crist’s 11-point lead over Rubio and Meek drops to an 8-point lead over Rubio and Greene. That may be a temporary artifact thanks to Greene’s heavy ad spending right now and one that would change post-primary, though. They don’t poll the Dem Senate primary here, for some reason, so there’s no basis for further speculation.

There’s also a Republican poll of the race that came out today, a McLaughlin & Associates poll that’s not directly from the Rubio campaign but on behalf of Associated Industries of Florida. They see a much closer race, as you might expect. They see a 38-36-16 race for Crist, Rubio, and Meek, while they see a tie if Greene is the nominee: 37-37 for Crist and Rubio with 16 for Greene.

One other piece of news: I don’t think Charlie Crist was counting on any assistance from his former running mate, Lt. Governor Jeff Kottkamp, who has remained a Republican where Crist has not. Today Kottkamp endorsed Rubio, saying he’d planned to back Rubio for months but waited to act until it would have maximum effect. Kottkamp is running for AG and is in a tight three-way GOP primary, so no way was he going to go off the reservation on this one. Doesn’t sound like he was tempted, though; things sound a little strained between him and his former ticket-mate:

“I gave him the same heads up that he gave me when he left the party, which is none,” Kottkamp said, acknowledging that his relationship with Crist was not likely to improve following the endorsement.

Gubernatorial numbers:

Alex Sink (D): 27

Bill McCollum (R): 26

Bud Chiles (I): 12

Undecided: 35

Alex Sink (D): 28

Rick Scott (R): 30

Bud Chiles (I): 11

Undecided: 31

(MoE: ±4%)

Rick Scott (R): 41

Bill McCollum (R): 25

Undecided: 34

(MoE: ±6%)

Also similar to Quinnipiac, the Florida Poll finds very close races between Alex Sink and the two toxic Republicans, with indie Bud Chiles in the low double-digits. (I wonder if Chiles can somehow outpoll the Democratic Senate nominee?) Rick Scott seems in command of the Republican gubernatorial primary.

Or is he? There’s another Republican poll out today, of the gubernatorial primary. The poll, from Schroth, Eldon & Associates, isn’t a McCollum internal but taken on behalf of “private business clients,” but judging by its content, they must be McCollum allies. It finds Scott leading McCollum only 43-40. Even weirder, it finds McCollum, reduced to smoldering ruins by Scott’s ad campaign according to pretty much every other pollster, in positive territory, at 43/42 (with Scott’s favorables at 41/42).

• CO-Sen: It looks like the Michael Bennet camp, and his Beltway backers, are taking the recent polling surge by Andrew Romanoff in the Dem Senate primary, very seriously. Barack Obama just did a remote appearance on behalf of Bennet, for five minutes at a Bennet town hall.

• KY-Sen: Well, he finally got around to it. It was buried in the fifth and final paragraph of a press release. Nevertheless, Dan Mongiardo finally endorsed Dem primary victor Jack Conway. Despite previous rumors that he was holding out on his endorsement to get his $77K campaign debt paid off, a Mongiardo spokesperson says he didn’t receive anything in exchange for the nod.

• PA-Sen: Bill Clinton will be in Scranton to campaign for Joe Sestak next Tuesday. Frankly, that’s a really good fit of candidate, backer, and locale. I wonder if Paul Kanjorski will be allowed to tag along, though? Seems like he could use some Clinton love, too. (No, not that kind of Clinton love.) On the GOP side, Pat Toomey got some campaign fundraising help in Philly from moderate Maine GOP Senator Susan “Comrade of the Month” Collins, who seems to have forgiven or conveniently forgotten all those Club for Growth attempts to knife her in the back.

• WA-Sen: Patty Murray seems to be taking a page from the John Hickenlooper campaign in Colorado, dropping a huge amount of money right now on advertising reservations, all the way through November, while they’re still cheap. She spent $3.4 million, nearly half her CoH, on ad buys in July. She can count on her coffers being replenished, though, as Barack Obama will be hosting a fundraiser for her later this month.

• WI-Sen: Dueling ads in Wisconsin. Russ Feingold is out with a sobering ad rattling his saber at Wall Street, while Ron Johnson levels accusations of being a “career politician” at Feingold. Double NWOTSOTB.

• CO-Gov: Is there blood here in the water, or what? Colorado Ethics Watch just filed a complaint with the state bar, which could lead to disciplinary action against Scott McInnis’s license to practice law in Colorado, over his plagiarism scandal. McInnis’s former campaign manager (until last December, so he was out long before the scandal) also just asked McInnis for a refund of all the contributions he’s given him. The DGA is also starting to pour money into this race, striking while the iron is hot; they’ve plowed $100K into a new third-party group airing a new anti-McInnis attack ad. And if you were thinking that Dan Maes might turn out to be a reasonable alternative to McInnis, guess again. He ventured not just into Michele Bachmann territory (about how we’ll all have to live in tenements and take mass transit to work) but clear into UN-black-helicopters-are-fluoridating-my-water territory. And what’s the nerve center of the one-world-government’s scurrilous plot against Coloradan sovereignty? Denver’s program for public bike shares and more showers for bike-riding commuters!!!!1!

“At first, I thought, ‘Gosh, public transportation, what’s wrong with that, and what’s wrong with people parking their cars and riding their bikes? And what’s wrong with incentives for green cars?’ But if you do your homework and research, you realize ICLEI is part of a greater strategy to rein in American cities under a United Nations treaty.”

• GA-Gov: This seems like a big Deal for Nathan: the third-place finisher in the gubernatorial primary, state Sen. Eric Johnson, is backing ex-Rep. Nathan Deal in the runoff. (Oddly, Johnson hasn’t said anything about it himself, but Rep. Jack Kingston, another Johnson backer-turned-Deal backer, made the announcement.) Johnson’s support should help Deal in the Savannah area, where Johnson seems to have a strong base.

• MD-Gov: I wonder if Sarah Palin is playing three-dimensional chess here, in some sort of strange gambit to help Bob Ehrlich in the general election… or just playing tic-tac-toe, and losing badly at it. At any rate, she endorsed Ehrlich’s barely-registering primary rival, businessman Brian Murphy, in the GOP gubernatorial primary. (Which, if you think about it, doesn’t jibe at all with her endorsement of centrist and likely victor Terry Branstad in Iowa instead of wingnut Bob Vander Plaats… but then, Maryland’s not an early presidential state.) Ehrlich is now publicly doing the happy dance over her endorsement of his rival, saying that it just confirms his moderate credentials for the general, where he has a shot at knocking off incumbent Dem Martin O’Malley.

• AZ-01: Rogue dentist Paul Gosar has a lead in the Republican primary in AZ-01 for the right to take on freshman Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick, if his own internal is to be believed. The poll from Moore Info puts him at 30, with ’08 candidate Sydney Hay at 10, Some Dude Bradley Beauchamp at 7, and, surprisingly, former state Sen. majority leader Rusty Bowers back at 6. Gosar seems to have consolidated many big-name movement conservatives behind him, ranging from Sarah Palin to Joe Arpaio. My main question, though, is: Sydney Hay is running again?!? Why weren’t we informed? (You may remember her legacy of fail from her 2008 run.)

• AZ-03: This is at least the second time a childless GOP candidate has gotten busted for playing up his “family man” credentials by romping with children in advertising (the first time was Kevin Yoder in KS-03). At least Yoder was able to claim the kids were his nieces and nephews… Ben Quayle apparently had to borrow some of his aides’ kids for his photo shoot.

• IL-17: After seemingly no one found their internal poll from last week credible (which gave the previously-unheralded, if not unknown, Bobby Schilling a lead over Democratic Rep. Phil Hare), there’s another Republican poll out that seems to at least be on the same temporal plane as reality, in this swing district where the GOP hasn’t competed hard in a while. POS (on behalf of a state party committee… Magellan did the Schilling internal) gives Hare a 33-31 lead over the political novice and pizza restauranteur. The poll also gives 7% support to the Green Party candidate, which somehow doesn’t seem likely to hold.

• WV-01: As heartburn-inducing Mike Oliverio will probably be in terms of his voting record, here’s some confirmation that we at least got an electoral upgrade here from the guy he defeated in the Dem primary, Rep. Alan Mollohan, who had ethical clouds following him and seemed to be phoning in his campaign. Oliverio is out with a new internal from Hamilton Campaigns that gives him a 52-36 lead over GOP opponent David McKinley. With Joe Manchin at the top of the ticket in a November special election, now, too, here’s one Tossup seat where our odds seem to be getting noticeably better. (As a bonus, they find Manchin leading John Raese 62-30 in the district, which is West Virginia’s reddest.)

• DCCC: CQ looks at the DCCC’s attempts to enforce dues-payment this cycle. While their “Frontline” members (the ones in the trickiest races) are exempt from paying dues, they’re winding up giving de facto passes to a number of other vulnerable incumbents, not having had any luck at stopping them from hoarding their own cash in preparation for tough races. 88 House Dems haven’t paid any dues at all this cycle, while many others are in arrears. There’s also, buried in the article, a statement that the DCCC doesn’t plan to further extend its Frontline program, even as the number of potentially vulnerable Dems seems to keep increasing.

• California: For people who just can’t get enough campaign finance reports, the Sacramento Bee has a helpful table of filings for all the candidates for the downballot statewide races. Dems have a cash on hand lead in most races, except for two (Secretary of State and Insurance Commissioner). It’s particularly pronounced in the Lt. Governor race, where Gavin Newsom leads GOP incumbent Abel Maldonado $495K to $91K. In the very tight AG’s race (also the downballot race that’s seen by far the most expenditures), Dem Kamala Harris leads GOPer Steve Cooley $186K to $121K (and Cooley also has $170K in debt).

• Redistricting: Ohio, unfortunately, won’t be having a referendum on a constitutional amendment on the ballot in November, that would limit parties’ ability to gerrymander by requiring bipartisan support for new maps. The problem? The parties in the state legislature couldn’t agree on the exact framework for the plan. At least there’s good news on the better-districts front in New York, where the state Senate just passed legislation that will make sure that incarcerated persons are counted in their home communities, when legislative lines are redrawn next year.

• Rasmussen:

• FL-Gov: Alex Sink (D) 31%, Bill McCollum (R) 27%, Bud Chiles (I) 20%

• FL-Gov: Alex Sink (D) 31%, Rick Scott (R) 35%, Bud Chiles (I) 16%

• OH-Sen: Lee Fisher (D) 40%, Rob Portman (R) 44%

• KS-Sen: In this social conservative-fiscal conservative battle for the soul of the GOP, 1st CD Rep. Jerry Moran prevailed over 4th Cd Rep. Todd Tiahrt by a narrow 50-45 margin. Each won big in his home congressional district, but Moran narrowly carried the neutral territory in between. This represents somewhat of a win for would-be rightwing kingmaker Jim DeMint, who endorsed Moran… over would-be rightwing kingmaker Sarah Palin, who endorsed Tiahrt. Moran starts as the presumptive favorite over Dem Lisa Johnston, who won her primary with 31% of the vote over publisher Charles Schollenberger. (JMD)

• KS-01 (R): With the last poll of the race from SurveyUSA showing the top three contenders tied, Growther (and Dodge City-area state Sen.) Tim Huelskamp pulled away from fellow state Sen. Jim Barnett and real estate broker Tracey Mann, earning a more comfortable-than-expected 35-25 win over Barnett. Mann finished in third with 21. Huelskamp, of course, was expected to be the most conservative of the bunch. (JMD)

• KS-02 (R): Great White Dope Lynn Jenkins survived an under-the-radar teabagging from Atchison-area state sen. Dennis Pyle, who unabashedly ran at Jenkins’ already-conservative right flank. Jenkins gets her name added to the list of weak performing incumbents, at 57%. (JMD)

• KS-03: As expected, faux-moderate Overland Park state Rep. Kevin Yoder easily clinched the GOP nomination for the seat of the retiring Dennis Moore. Despite having aligned himself with the conservative faction in the Kansas legislature, he still earned 44% in this Johnson County-based district, where the KS GOP internecine war has traditionally benefited Dems in the past up and down the ballot. Patricia Lightner finished second with 37%; Yoder goes on to face Moore’s wife, Stephene Moore, who clinched her own nomination without much trouble. (JMD)

• KS-04: RNC Committeeman Mike Pompeo easily secured the GOP nomination to replace Todd Tiahrt, scoring 39% against the pro-choice Planned Parenthood endorsed Jean Schodorf with 24%; she narrowly edged out Wink Hartman, who earned 23% and had seat-buying tendencies unseen this side of Meg Whitman. Up-and-coming Wichita State Rep. Raj Goyle – who lagged in an earlier poll – was easily nominated on the Dem side with 80% of the vote. (JMD)

• MI-Gov: Given a pretty clear ideological choice, Democrats opted for the loudly populist Lansing mayor Virg Bernero over centrist state House speaker Andy Dillon, 59-41. Bernero, who trailed in most polls until the last couple weeks, benefited from a late push from organized labor. He’ll face an uphill battle in November against GOP winner Rick Snyder. The sorta-moderate Snyder benefited from a three-way split among conservatives out of the four viable candidates. While it’s nice to know that Michigan’s governor won’t be a nut and that Peter Hoekstra got sent packing, Snyder, with his moderate appeal, is probably the toughest matchup of all the GOPers for Bernero in November. (C)

• MI-01 (R): This wound up being the closest major race of the night, if not all cycle. Right now, physician Dan Benishek leads Jason Allen by 14 votes, 27,078-27,064. (Our final projection of the night was for Benishek by 10 votes, so we were way off.) Assuming Benishek’s lead survives, he’ll face Democratic state Rep. Gary McDowell for Bart Stupak’s open seat. (Also worth noting: that Inside Michigan Politics poll that we derided for its small sample size foresaw a tie for Benishek and Allen, so they can feel vindicated too.) (C)

• MI-02 (R): Another close race happened in the Republican primary in the 2nd, to fill the dark-red open seat left by Peter Hoekstra. We may also be waiting a while before this race is formally resolved, as former state Rep. Bill Huizenga and former NFL player Jay Riemersma are both at 25%, with Huizenga with a 658-vote lead. State Sen. William Kuipers (22) and businessman Bill Cooper (19) were also competitive. (C)

• MI-03 (R): 30-year-old state Rep. Justin Amash, a favorite of the Club for Growth and local powerbroker Dick DeVos, won a surprisingly easy victory in the Republican primary over two less strident opponents, state Sen. Bill Hardiman and former Kent Co. Commissioner Steve Heacock, 40-24-26. There’s been some speculation on whether the combination of hard-right Amash (in a district that Obama narrowly won, and that’s only elected moderate Republicans like Vern Ehlers and, going way back, Gerald Ford) and well-connected Democratic opponent Patrick Miles might put this race on the map, but, well, probably not this year. (C)

• MI-06 (R): This race wasn’t really too high on anyone’s radar screens (we last mentioned it back in March), but incumbent Rep. Fred Upton was held to a surprisingly weak 57-43 primary win over ex-state Rep. Jack Hoogendyk, who was last seen getting badly pummeled by Carl Levin in 2008’s Senate race. Hoogendyk ran on a full ‘bagger platform, hitting Upton for his votes in favor of TARP, No Child Left Behind, and S-CHIP. Upton’s performance certainly wasn’t inspiring, especially considering he outspent Hoogendyk by an absurd margin. (JL)

• MI-07 (R): Rooney eats it! Ex-Rep/’08 loser Tim Walberg handily dispatched attorney and Steelers family grandson Brian Rooney by 58-32 margin. Walberg will now advance to a rematch against Democrat Mark Schauer, who I expect is pleased by this result. (JL)

• MI-09 (R): Ex-state Rep. Rocky Raczkowski won the right to take on frosh Dem Rep. Gary Peters in this slightly Dem-tilting suburban seat. Rocky beat ex-Rep. Joe Knollenberg’s former chief of staff, Paul Welday, by a convincing 42-28 margin, meaning that you can add Raczkowski’s name to the list of Base Connect clients who successfully withstood a well-funded primary challenge. (JL)

• MI-12 (D): Veteran Dem Rep. Sander Levin easily beat back a challenge from his right, creaming term-limited state Sen. Michael Switalski by a 76-24 spread. Nothing to see here, folks. (JL)

• MI-13 (D): Two years after escaping political death with her 39% primary win over a split field of credible challengers, Dem Rep. Carolyn Cheeks Kilpatrick finally bit the dust last night, losing her primary to state Sen. Hansen Clarke by a 47-41 margin. Cheeks Kilpatrick becomes the fourth House incumbent to lose a primary this year (after Parker Griffith, Alan Mollohan, and Bob Inglis), and Hansen Clarke, as noted in the comments by DCCyclone, is on track to become the first Democrat of (partial) South Asian descent to serve in Congress since Dalip Singh Saund in the 1950s. (JL)

• MO-Sen (R): The teabaggers’ last stand in Missouri (which went so far as to include their turning against their own spiritual leader Michele Bachmann, for her support of Roy Blunt) really seemed to go nowhere in the Republican primary, as their man, state Sen. Chuck Purgason, never gained any traction. Establishment Rep. Roy Blunt won ridiculously easily over Purgason, 71-13. Blunt will face Democratic SoS Robin Carnahan in the general election, in one of the year’s marquee Senate races. (C)

• MO-04 (R): Despite the local GOP establishment’s preference for state Sen. Bill Stouffer, former state Rep. Vicki Hartzler emerged victorious from their air war, and won the right to challenge longtime Dem Ike Skelton by a fairly convincing 40-30 margin. If Hartzler’s endorsements – including Reps. Marsha Blackburn (sigh of disgust), Virginia Foxx (evil grandmotherly sigh of disgust), and Jean Schmidt (nuclear waste-tinged sigh of disgust) – are predictive, we’d better hope for Ike to hold on. (JMD)

• MO-07 (R): In the race to fill the dark-red seat left behind by Roy Blunt, the winner was self-funding auctioneer Billy Long. (An auctioneer makes enough money to self-fund? His company’s website doesn’t exactly scream wealth… or having been updated since the Netscape era…) Overcoming a late attack from the mysterious Americans for Job Security, he defeated state Sens. Jack Goodman and Gary Nodler 37-29-14. (C)

We’re doomed, oh what a world! At least according to people who have never been wrong about the future like NRO. Those dudes sense that total doom awaits because Robin Carnahan’s vote total didn’t beat Roy Blunt’s in St. Louis County. (They had to be reminded that STL City is it’s own entity, but still, obviously they’re experts)

So here’s the map.

The overall totals were 64% of votes cast for the Republicans running for the Senate, and 35% cast for the Democrats. Which can be categorized as a lousy turnout on our side. After all, with zero competitive state primaries and 99 degree heat in KC (and apparently a lot of heat in STL too), don’t we know that we’re just supposed to automatically vote?

Also, if you believe the people who are either going to lean on Carnahan/Blunt totals, or turnout. Then obviously everybody voting in the Democratic primary was a Democrat and everybody voting in the Republican primary was a Republican. I’d imagine in their world, people were picking up Republican ballots, not because there were lots of competitive visible races in their primary, but because they’re all diehard Republicans now. (And goodness forbid, I doubt any Democrats voted in Republican primaries, because doing that would make them melt. Kind of like garlic to vampires.)

MO-7, MO-4, SD6 (Jeff City Area), SD28 (It’s shaped oddly), SD8, SD2 (could you blame a St. Charles Dem who’d vote against Cynthia Davis?). None of those had any influence on the turnout, i’m sure.

The last year has not been the model of how to do various political things, nationally or otherwise. But at the same time, beating an entrenched DC Republican is not supposed to be easy. So 64-35 is ridiculous. But you know that’s not how it breaks down in November.

We next stop by the coastal counties outside the major urban centers. In most of the northern half, the coastal regions outside the cities started out Republican and began trending Democratic in the mid-20th century with the migration of urban people and the establishment of UC Santa Cruz in Santa Cruz County. Lake and bellwether San Benito Counties are technically not coastal, but their political dynamics are very similar to the non-major-urban coastal counties, so that is why I am including them here instead of with the other inland counties. San Luis Obispo and Del Norte counties are much further away from urban settings and thus have not had the Democratic trend of the others. Some of these counties, especially Mendocino and Humboldt, Perot and Nader way overperformed, which artificially made the counties more Republican in 2000.

Santa Barbara is regarded as mirroring California politically and demographically (while San Benito only mirrors the state politically) and its trend has largely followed the state’s. Ventura County was a originally a swing county and trended Republican as it became more of a suburb of L.A., before beginning trending the opposite direction in the 90s along with the rest of suburban SoCal.

While these counties don’t make up a very big slice of the pie population-wise, only about 10% or so, and are also growing slower than average, their Democratic trend is still more than welcome.

Del Norte

Year	Population	Change	% of state	PVI
1920	2,759	14.1%	0.08%	R+3.7
1930	4,739	71.8%	0.08%	D+5.4
1940	4,745	0.1%	0.07%	R+5.8
1950	8,078	70.2%	0.08%	R+9.0
1960	17,771	120.0%	0.11%	D+3.0
1970	14,580	-18.0%	0.07%	D+1.5
1980	18,217	24.9%	0.08%	R+3.0
1990	23,460	28.8%	0.08%	D+1.9
2000	27,507	17.3%	0.08%	R+7.2
2008*	29,100	5.8%	0.08%	R+6.9

Humboldt

Year	Population	Change	% of state	PVI
1920	37,413	10.5%	1.09%	R+12.5
1930	43,233	15.6%	0.76%	R+7.6
1940	45,812	6.0%	0.66%	D+1.4
1950	69,241	51.1%	0.65%	R+3.5
1960	104,892	51.5%	0.67%	D+4.0
1970	99,692	-5.0%	0.50%	D+5.2
1980	108,525	8.9%	0.46%	D+1.2
1990	119,118	9.8%	0.40%	D+9.9
2000	126,518	6.2%	0.37%	D+1.1
2008*	129,000	2.0%	0.35%	D+10.9

Lake

Year	Population	Change	% of state	PVI
1920	5,402	-2.2%	0.16%	D+4.1
1930	7,166	32.7%	0.13%	R+1.2
1940	8,069	12.6%	0.12%	R+10.4
1950	11,481	42.3%	0.11%	R+12.8
1960	13,786	20.1%	0.09%	R+8.2
1970	19,548	41.8%	0.10%	D+0.1
1980	36,366	86.0%	0.15%	R+0.9
1990	50,631	39.2%	0.17%	D+6.4
2000	58,309	15.2%	0.17%	D+4.3
2008*	64,866	11.2%	0.18%	D+5.9

Mendocino

Year	Population	Change	% of state	PVI
1920	24,116	0.8%	0.70%	R+5.0
1930	23,505	-2.5%	0.41%	R+0.7
1940	27,864	18.5%	0.40%	D+1.6
1950	40,854	46.6%	0.39%	R+5.9
1960	51,059	25.0%	0.32%	D+0.5
1970	51,101	0.1%	0.26%	D+3.5
1980	66,738	30.6%	0.28%	D+1.4
1990	80,345	20.4%	0.27%	D+13.6
2000	86,265	7.4%	0.25%	D+6.5
2008*	86,221	-0.1%	0.24%	D+17.5

Monterey

Year	Population	Change	% of state	PVI
1920	27,980	15.9%	0.82%	R+4.5
1930	53,705	91.9%	0.95%	R+2.5
1940	73,032	36.0%	1.06%	D+0.0
1950	130,498	78.7%	1.23%	R+6.1
1960	198,351	52.0%	1.26%	R+4.2
1970	247,450	24.8%	1.24%	R+0.6
1980	290,444	17.4%	1.23%	R+5.2
1990	355,660	22.5%	1.20%	D+5.0
2000	401,762	13.0%	1.19%	D+7.4
2008*	408,238	1.6%	1.12%	D+14.1

San Benito

Year	Population	Change	% of state	PVI
1920	8,995	11.9%	0.26%	R+1.2
1930	11,311	25.7%	0.20%	D+2.4
1940	11,392	0.7%	0.16%	R+2.1
1950	14,370	26.1%	0.14%	R+9.7
1960	15,396	7.1%	0.10%	R+1.8
1970	18,226	18.4%	0.09%	D+0.2
1980	25,005	37.2%	0.11%	R+3.7
1990	36,697	46.8%	0.12%	D+1.0
2000	53,234	45.1%	0.16%	D+4.1
2008*	54,699	2.8%	0.15%	D+6.1

San Luis Obispo

Year	Population	Change	% of state	PVI
1920	21,893	12.9%	0.64%	R+2.2
1930	29,613	35.3%	0.52%	D+3.7
1940	33,246	12.3%	0.48%	R+0.6
1950	51,417	54.7%	0.49%	R+9.4
1960	81,044	57.6%	0.52%	R+2.7
1970	105,690	30.4%	0.53%	R+0.4
1980	155,435	47.1%	0.66%	R+6.9
1990	217,162	39.7%	0.73%	R+1.9
2000	246,681	13.6%	0.73%	R+7.4
2008*	265,297	7.5%	0.73%	R+1.7

Santa Barbara

Year	Population	Change	% of state	PVI
1920	41,097	48.2%	1.20%	R+3.4
1930	65,167	58.6%	1.15%	R+5.2
1940	70,555	8.3%	1.02%	R+0.2
1950	98,220	39.2%	0.93%	R+12.4
1960	168,962	72.0%	1.08%	R+7.1
1970	264,324	56.4%	1.32%	R+1.0
1980	298,694	13.0%	1.26%	R+5.7
1990	369,608	23.7%	1.24%	D+0.1
2000	399,347	8.0%	1.18%	R+0.9
2008*	405,396	1.5%	1.11%	D+6.6

Santa Cruz

Year	Population	Change	% of state	PVI
1920	26,269	0.5%	0.77%	R+4.6
1930	37,433	42.5%	0.66%	R+5.8
1940	45,057	20.4%	0.65%	R+8.1
1950	66,534	47.7%	0.63%	R+12.9
1960	84,219	26.6%	0.54%	R+8.0
1970	123,790	47.0%	0.62%	D+2.5
1980	188,141	52.0%	0.79%	D+2.5
1990	229,734	22.1%	0.77%	D+17.9
2000	255,602	11.3%	0.75%	D+16.0
2008*	253,137	-1.0%	0.69%	D+25.9

Ventura

Year	Population	Change	% of state	PVI
1920	28,724	56.6%	0.84%	R+13.1
1930	54,976	91.4%	0.97%	R+5.0
1940	69,685	26.8%	1.01%	D+1.9
1950	114,647	64.5%	1.08%	D+3.4
1960	199,138	73.7%	1.27%	D+3.9
1970	378,497	90.1%	1.90%	R+4.6
1980	529,174	39.8%	2.24%	R+8.8
1990	669,016	26.4%	2.25%	R+5.4
2000	753,197	12.6%	2.22%	R+2.6
2008*	797,740	5.9%	2.18%	D+1.0

It’s time for the fourth edition in our weekly roundup of news from the Democratic campaigns for the New York State Senate.  This week we’ve got endorsements from NYLCV and ESPA, and our candidates go on the attack while Republicans fight amongst themselves.

As always, if you see that we missed something, please include links to more news on New York State Senate campaigns in the comments.  If you Tweet about any campaigns, please consider using the #NYSen10 hashtag.  You can find all our challengers on Act Blue at the Change Albany Now page.  If you’d like to follow these roundups on a daily basis, visit our blog or subscribe to our RSS feed.  –Mike

DEMOCRATIC CANDIDATES

The New York League of Conservation Voters, a non-partisan, policy making and political action organization that works to make environmental protection a top priority, announced their support of numerous Democratic Senators and candidates . They endorsed 14 incumbent Democrats and 5 challengers – Dave Mejias, Susan Savage, Joanne Yepsen, Kathleen Joy, and Mary Wilmot. NYLCV President Marcia Bystryn had this to say specifically about Savage: “Susan Savage is exactly the kind of 21st century leader that New York needs. Susan knows that a healthy environment, green jobs and clean energy are not luxuries for the good times – they are the ways forward to a stronger, more economically vibrant New York.”

The Empire State Pride Agenda, the statewide, bi-partisan civil rights and political advocacy organization dedicated to winning equality and justice for lesbian, gay, bisexual and transgender (LGBT) New Yorkers, endorsed seven incumbent Democratic Senators and four Democratic challengers in their second round of 2010 endorsements. Not a single Republican was endorsed by the group. “These endorsements are the product of careful consideration by the Pride Agenda’s staff and Political Action Committee,” said executive director Ross Levi in a statement. “Our decisions are not based on a single issue, but a comprehensive review of a candidate’s positions and record, as well an assessment of his or her leadership qualities.”

Joe Williams, Executive Director of Democrats for Education Reform, wrote an op-ed in The New York Daily News that argued the leadership of Senate Majority Leader John Sampson and his fellow Democratic senators are responsible for New York still being in the race for federal dollars. Going forward, Williams argued, “the commitment the Democrats demonstrated for reform needs to be matched by elected officials, school districts and unions across the state.”

Democratic Candidate Mike Kaplowitz has secured the Independence Party line in the November election. He was chosen after an interview and endorsement process. “Voters in the Hudson Valley have shown time and again that they want to be represented by legislators who are independent of the special interests as well as the Albany leadership of both the Republican and Democratic Parties,” Kaplowitz said in a statement. “As an Independent Democrat on the Westchester Board of Legislators, I have been able to lead the way toward cutting millions in waste from the budget, consolidating departments to save money, and reforming pensions.”

Democratic Candidate Dave Mejias attacked his opponent, 21-year incumbent Kemp Hannon, for opposing a $1-per-hour pay raise for Nassau health-care workers . Mejias denounced Hannon’s position, saying: “A guy who has an extra $60,000 to loan his campaign telling workers they don’t deserve a $1 an hour raise is outrageous. 34 years in Albany has made Kemp Hannon quite comfortable, and he obviously doesn’t care what it’s like to try to feed a family on $20,000 a year.” Hannon has received $19,500 in campaign contributions from the Health Care Providers PAC since 2005. After the representatives from health care providers industry failed to provide evidence that the pay raise would hurt health care providers, an attempt to block the raise was unanimously rejected by the Nassau County Legislature on July 26.

Dave Mejias also launched a new campaign site this week.  Check it out at DaveForNewYork.com.

Dan Janison, of Newsday, profiled the race between Regina Calcaterra and 34-year Republican incumbent Ken LaValle. He said Calcaterra brings a “different style” to the race, that she is” hailed by her supporters as a sharp, energetic fighter,” and mentioned her work representing the state’s pension system in the high-profile lawsuit against WorldCom.

After 26-year incumbent and Bruno-successor Dean Skelos criticized Democrats for holding an extra legislative session, Democratic Candidate George Sava hit Skelos with the sad truth of some hard facts. Sava responded by saying: “Skelos is the expert when it comes to wasting tax money. After all, he voted to double state spending over 14 years, stuck taxpayers with a bill for over $1.2 million to fund his office last year, and allowed property taxes to rise 320 percent since he was elected. Nassau County tax payers are suffering. We need public servants who don’t just point the finger but come up with real solutions.”

REPUBLICANS

The Senate GOP decided to attack one of its own this week. Republican Greg Ball, who is running for the GOP nomination in SD-40 where Democratic Candidate Mike Kaplowitz has been running a stellar campaign, woke up to quite a smackdown from the GOP. In response to his organizing a “Women for Ball” event, the SRCC issued the following statement: “This is a tired rerun of what happened two years ago when news first broke that Greg Ball had been hit with an order of protection for stalking his ex-girlfriend. The facts are the facts, and Greg Ball stands accused of groping a waitress at an Albany bar, an account several eyewitnesses confirmed. Today, he trots out a woman whose mother is on the payroll of Ball political ally Steve Katz to spread lies. Those accusations are slanderous and are subject to legal liability. The residents of Dutchess, Putnam and Westchester counties are tired of the distractions, tired of the conspiracy theories and tired of all of the excuses. You can’t take anything Greg Ball says seriously.” For once, a statement well put by the SRCC.

Incumbent Republican Martin Golden, facing his first election contest in years, dropped his petition challenge of Democratic Candidate Mike DiSanto‘. DiSanto declared that he was not surprised by the Golden campaign’s challenge, adding that it is not unusual for “entrenched” incumbent politicians to challenge opponent petition signatures. “Everyone in the community knows my signatures are valid,” said DiSanto. “We live in a democracy and do not crown kings in America. I will not be intimidated by those who seek to undermine the political freedom that our country was founded upon,” With 2,100 signatures, he collected over twice the number required.

Former New York City Council Member Anthony Como, a Republican running for State Senate against Sen. Joe Addabbo, has been ordered to repay nearly $13,000 in unspent and misspent funds to the New York City Campaign Finance Board. The charges stem from his losing 2008 general election Council loss to Elizabeth Crowley. The repayment includes $6,800 that was spent impermissibly on phone and copy machine contracts for his campaign office that spanned well beyond Election Day, repayments of unspent campaign funds, and $100 spent on a newspaper ad for the Holy Child Jesus Team Drama Club that the CFB deemed not campaign related.

FL-Sen: Is Marco Rubio off the supply-side reservation? He admitted in a recent campaign stop that “tax cuts don’t pay for themselves,” which seems like high-grade Republican apostasy. I look forward to his undoubtedly forthcoming apology.

Meanwhile, more interestingly, Jeff Greene is getting in some hot water for his maritime adventures. At a debate on Sunday, Greene claimed he had visited Cuba in 2007 – a very touchy subject in South Florida, of course – as part of a Jewish humanitarian mission. Oops, says a campaign spokesbot – “What he meant to say was that in 2007, he went on the boat from Honduras to the Bahamas, and en route the boat had a hydraulic problem” and made a pit-stop in Cuba. Yuh huh – cuz I always mix up yachting hijinks with charity tours with my rabbi. But wait, there’s more! A former Greene deckhand (and there are quite a few who despise their old boss) says the candidate is lying, and that “It was their total intention to go to Cuba. We never went to Honduras, not even close. I figure it was the glamour of wanting to go to a banned country.” Good luck explaining this one away.

CA-Gov: Props to Jonathan Martin at Politico for making sure this one didn’t get flushed down the oubliette: Ins. Co. Steve Poizner still has not endorsed Meg Whitman, who vanquished him in the GOP primary.

NM-Gov: A new front in the New Mexico governor’s race: Dem Diane Denish says she supports a domestic partnership law, which would give same-sex couples many of the same rights as heterosexual married couples. Predictably, Republican Susana Martinez is opposed. Domestic partnership bills have come up regularly in the state legislature but have always foundered. Of course, this issue may or may not get a lot of traction in a year like this.

TN-09: Willie Herenton is claiming that early voting patterns show him well on the way to a 3-to-1 victory over Rep. Steve Cohen. You can supply the laughter.

NY-24: Rep. Mike Arcuri, spurned by both the Independence and Working Families Parties, is still trying to get on a second ballot line – one of his own creation. His campaign is petitioning to create an “NY Moderates” party.

IN-02: Dem Rep. Joe Donnelly is up with a pair of ads attacking “Wacky” Jackie Walorsky for her support of Wall Street and for “free trade” deals with Mexico and China. Of course, NWOTSOTB.

FL-22: This just shows you how stark raving insane Allen West is. While serving in Iraq in 2003, he claims he got wind of a plot… against himself. Rather than recuse himself from the investigation, he ordered his subordinates to beat a detainee, and then threatened the man with summary execution – going so far as to fire a gun over his head. You can find the full story here, but the reason why this is coming up is that West just released an absurdly self-serving video where he portrays himself as some kind of heroic Jack Bauer – but the reality is that West only avoided criminal charges by tendering his resignation to the Army.

PA-07: Look, if I were Pat Meehan, I’d howl about this, too – but the fact is, even if Dem Bryan Lentz’s campaign did help teabagger Jim Schneller qualify for the ballot, that’s just fucking politics. (The Lentz camp isn’t answering any questions, but a lot of Schneller’s petitions were circulated by Lentz supporters.) And what’s more, as Alex Roarty at PoliticsPA points out, Schneller is very likely to stay on the ballot, which will undoubtedly help Lentz – and all the whining in the world won’t change that.

WI-07: A shadowy right-wing 527 (are any of them not shadowy?) with the oddly dystopian name of “the New Prosperity Foundation” has a new TV ad trying to stereotype Dem Julie Lassa as a “big-spending politician.” Of course, NWOTSOTB.

Fundraising: Aaron Blake and the staff at the Fix have truly done heroic work: They’ve compiled gubernatorial fundraising numbers, an epically daunting task given that you need to navigate a million different state SoS websites, with different interfaces, reporting requirements, and reporting periods. Still, somehow, they managed to do so, and they have the most recent fundraising nums for all the major gube races around the nation – just click on the “Governors Races” tab.

11:07pm: Follow us over here.

11:05pm: One more KS-Sen point before we wrap up this thread: four of the largest counties in Moran’s KS-01 have reported either 0 or 1 precincts so far: Reno (Hutchinson), Geary (Junction City), Ford (Dodge City), and Finney (Garden City). So the tide is only beginning to turn.

10:57pm: More on KS-Sen: even with Johnson Co., Moran is still leading Tiahrt in the neutral districts, 48-45. Their own districts are a wash: Moran is winning the 1st 69-28, and Tiahrt is winning the 4th 67-28.

10:55pm: Now this is interesting. Johnson Co., the biggest county in Kansas, seemed to report every precinct en masse… and it went narrowly for Tiahrt (49-45) despite Moran, at least to my mind, fitting its suburban profile better. Nevertheless, despite losing the prize of Johnson Co., Moran is, as expected, starting to pull back ahead. He’s up to a 48-46 lead over Tiahrt, with 56% reporting statewide.

10:51pm: SSP Labs is projecting 39.1% for Benishek, 37.4% for Allen when all is said and done in MI-01.

10:48pm: 88% are reporting in MI-01 R, and we aren’t anywhere near a conclusion yet. It’s Benishek over Allen, 39-38, with a 900-vote spread separating them.

10:46pm: And add yet one more. The AP has called MI-07 R for Tim Walberg, who beats Brian Rooney 59-31. That’s gotta be good for us… Walberg is too wingnutty for that swing district, and having run for that office the last three times, everybody already knows him.

10:44pm: The AP adds one more call: the D primary in MI-12. Sandy Levin beats the promotion-seeking state Sen. Mickey Switalski fairly convincingly, 73-27.

10:43pm: And the AP has called KS-04 D for Raj Goyle, who most definitely did not get VicRawl’d tonight. He beats Robert Tillman 81-19, a bit like smashing an ant with a hammer, but those ads will still help build up his name rec for November.

10:41pm: The AP has called MI-Gov R for Rick Snyder. Good news: the next governor of Michigan will not be a wingnut. Bad news: Snyder, with his moderate appeal, will probably be the toughest matchup for Bernero in November.

10:37pm: I haven’t seen this many Dutch guys beating the crap out of each other since the last time Feyenoord played PSV Eindhoven. (Sorry, obscure ‘football’ reference there.)

10:36pm: Meanwhile, back in MI-02, which Hoekstra is probably feeling bad about having vacated, it’s a 30-30 tie between Huizenga and Kuipers. Social con Riemersma (who polls had in the lead) is falling back to 18, with teabagger Cooper at 12.

10:34pm: No AP call yet on the GOP side in MI-Gov, but we’re getting word that Peter Hoekstra has conceded the race (presumably to Snyder, who leads Hoekstra 37-26, with Cox at 24).

10:32pm: Here’s more data from SSP Labs, about KS-Sen, where the spread is about 600 votes. About 40% of Tiahrt’s district has reported, though, while only 23% of Moran’s has, and Moran is winning the other two CDs, 51-41.

10:31pm: In Missouri, Vicki Hartzler has pulled into a bigger lead in the MO-04 GOP primary. She’s up on Stouffer, 42-30. That’s with 62% reporting, including both of their home counties fully in.

10:29pm: Great White Dope Lynn Jenkins is going back to the House from KS-02 for another term, it looks like. The AP has called her race against Dennis Pyle, although she finishes with an underwhelming 59%.

10:26pm: In KS-Sen, the real question mark is going to be Johnson County. This is the most populous county in the state, the suburbs ringing Kansas City, Kansas, and the core of KS-03. Only 1 of 447 is reporting so far (with a 50-42 lead for Moran, in case you care).

10:25pm: This is the first time all night we’ve seen a Todd Tiahrt lead in KS-Sen. They’re both at 47%, with Tiahrt ahead by about 900, with 27% reporting. Bear in mind, though, that Segwick Co. (Wichita, Tiahrt’s town) has largely reported; it’s 74% in. So this is probably as good as it gets for Tiahrt.

10:20pm: We’ve suddenly jumped to two-thirds reporting in the MO-07 R primary. That clot of Nodler voters in Newton Co. apparently showed up, but it’s not enough to swing the needle. It’s still Long 35, Goodman 29, Nodler 16.

10:08pm: Over in MI-01, Benishek now leads Allen by 39-38. In KS-01, Huelskamp has pulled to a 35-25-24 lead over Barnett and Mann, but there are lots of votes left to count there.

10:03pm: In the KS-Sen race, Moran now leads Tiahrt by only 47-46, but bear in mind that Tiahrt’s home district (KS-04) has more precincts reporting than Moran’s 1st CD so far.

10:01pm: Over in MI-13, Clarke leads Cheeks Kilpatrick by 48-38 with just under 37% in. To take a look at the track record of other House incumbents who’ve faced primaries this cycle, check out our handy chart here.

9:58pm: With more than 1/3 in, things are still very tight in MO-04. Hartzler leads Stouffer, 37-35. On the Dem side, the race has been called for Ike Skelton. He defeated man/lion hybrid Leonard Steinman… the very kind of being that the GOP is looking to stamp out… 81 to 19.

9:56pm: One race that isn’t close is MI-07, also with almost half in. It’s Walberg 58, Rooney 32. Thus ending the dream of two Rooney brothers in the House… and of Domino’s Pizza having its own personal in-house Representative.

9:55pm: More than half is reporting in MI-01, and Jason Allen continues to nurse a small lead (39-37) on Dan Benishek.

9:53pm: On the R side, we’re probably nowhere near a call. Snyder’s at 37, with Hoekstra closest at 26, and Cox at 24. Bouchard (and by extension Ted Nugent) pretty much a non-factor here at 11.

9:51pm: The AP has called MI-Gov D for Virg Bernero! He leads Andy Dillon at the same 58-42, with about 20% reporting.

9:49pm: Wow, things are even closer in KS-Sen now. It’s Moran 47, Tiahrt 46 with 10% in.

9:48pm: In KS-04, we have enough to report on: Mike Pompeo leads at 37, with Jean Schodorf (who led at very first) at 29, and Wink Hartman at 21. And on the Dem side, looks like the Raj Goyle ad blitz paid off, and then some. He’s beating Robert Tillman 79-21.

9:47pm: Back in KS-02, Lynn Jenkins continues to underwhelm in the GOP primary; she’s at 59 against teabagging state Sen. Dennis Pyle. At least she’s doing better than Sean Tevis, who’s in 3rd and last place among the Dems.

9:46pm: Carolyn Cheeks Kilpatrick looks like she’s on her way to becoming the 4th primary casualty in the House this year. With 27% in, she trails Hansen Clarke 50-35.

9:45pm: Wow, nearly a 3-way tie in the GOP field in KS-01: Mann 29, Huelskamp 28, Barnett 26.

9:43pm: Things are just getting underway in KS-03, with about 3% in, but Kevin Yoder has a pretty solid lead over Patricia Lightner in the GOP primary: 48-35.

---

Moving the party over to a fresh new thread.

Results:

     Kansas: Associated Press | Politico

     Michigan: Associated Press | Politico | MI DoS

     Missouri: Associated Press | Politico | MO SoS