Month: September 2010

SurveyUSA for WRAL-TV (9/10-13, likely voters, 7/8-11 in parens):

Elaine Marshall (D): 34 (36)

Richard Burr (R-inc): 58 (46)

Mike Beitler (L): 6 (6)

Undecided: 2 (12)

(MoE: ±4.1%)

2% undecided? A 54-36 Burr lead among 18 to 34 year-olds? Good grief. This is literally the best poll for Burr released all cycle – going all the way back to March 2009.

Either voters in North Carolina love them some rocking chairs, or I want a hit of whatever SUSA is toking.

UPDATE: In the comments, we have a response from Marshall’s pollster.

Quinnipiac (9/8-12, likely voters, 7/28-8/2 (using RVs) in parentheses):

Richard Blumenthal (D): 51 (50)

Linda McMahon (R): 45 (40)

Undecided: 3 (7)

(MoE: ±3.3%)

There was a lot of OMG! that came out associated with this poll yesterday, as this is the first Quinnipiac poll of their home state showing Richard Blumenthal leading in the single digits. Nate Silver, as is often the case, remained the calm, level-headed presence in the room, pointing out that Quinnipiac’s previous poll of registered voters saw a 10-point spread, and considering that the average gap we’re seeing between RV and LV polls of the same population is usually around 4 or 5, then a 6-point spread in Quinnipiac’s first poll of likely voters probably means nothing, in fact, has changed.

Still feeling the need to push back on the Quinnipiac result, the DSCC rolled out its own internal from Hamilton Campaigns, giving Blumenthal a 54-39 lead over McMahon. (It also gave him 70/27 approval in his job as AG. And here’s perhaps the flipside of that, given McMahon’s former day job: the favorables for World Wrestling Entertainment are 21/62.) Even in the Quinnipiac poll, Blumenthal’s faves (55/39) are still much better than McMahon’s (45/41). Nevertheless, the overall trendline can’t be said to look good for Blumenthal. The question is, is there enough time left (and enough persuable undecides left) for McMahon to be able to do anything more?

Quinnipiac (9/8-12, likely voters, 7/28-8/2 (using RVs) in parentheses):

Dan Malloy (D): 50 (46)

Tom Foley (R): 41 (31)

Undecided: 8 (16)

(MoE: ±3.3%)

Here’s some more support for the Nate Silver hypothesis: the exact same movement happened in the Governor’s race, where Dan Malloy’s 15-point lead in the last pre-primary RV poll turned into a 9-point lead post-primary with LVs. At any rate, it’s a bit of a surprise to see Dan Malloy (who a few months ago wasn’t really even expected to win his primary) faring better than Blumenthal is, but that probably has more to do with McMahon’s massively-self-funded, smoothly-humming campaign compared with Foley’s efforts, which have seemed disorganized and mostly defensive since even before the GOP primary. Malloy’s faves are 46/21, while they’re 34/24 for Foley.

Opinion Research Corp. for CNN/Time (pdf) (9/2-7, likely voters, no trendlines):

Patty Murray (D-inc): 53

Dino Rossi (R): 44

Undecided: 1

(MoE: ±3.5%)

I’ll admit that, as big a backer of the Elway Poll as I am, even I thought their Monday poll of Washington’s Senate race, giving Patty Murray a 9-point lead was maybe a few points too optimistic. Oh, me of little faith, because today CNN/Time is out with a poll that pretty well confirms it, giving Murray another 9-point spread and finding her all the way up at 53. That’s with a staggering 1% undecided with a month and a half to go — talk about two well-defined candidates! (The missing 2% responded either “Other” or “Neither.”)

Note that this batch of CNN polls switches to a likely voter model (instead of the strange decision with last week’s wave to do only registered voters)… and the LV model actually benefits Murray, which seems weird, but also indicative of Washington’s solidly blue status: Murray leads Rossi 50-44 among RVs. Rossi gets 95% of Republicans, while Murray gets 93% of Democrats — and there are simply more (self-identified, since there’s no party registration) Democrats in Washington. Murray polls 66% in King County, and leads by 5 in suburban Puget Sound, while Rossi leads by 20 in the rest of the state.

• AK-Sen: Two positive developments in the Alaska Senate race, as Scott McAdams seeks to introduce himself in this suddenly-competitive race. He was the recipient of a Mark Begich-headlined fundraiser yesterday in Washington DC, and he’s also out with a radio ad stressing his Alaskan roots and that he’ll keep fighting for “schools, hospitals, roads, and other nuts and bolts” – both key ways to differentiate himself from Joe Miller. As for Lisa Murkowski’s plans, she’s saying that she’ll make her intentions known by Friday whether she wants to make a write-in bid (but her plans to return to DC might be a “no” tea leaf).

• DE-Sen: After running far, far away from Christine O’Donnell last night, the NRSC has done an about-face today, giving her the maximum $42K (with Mitch McConnell chipping in his own $5K). I’d be surprised if they give any more than that; this seems like an attempt to placate the base before they go ballistic. Mitt Romney is also backing O’Donnell and giving his own $5K, apparently more worried about getting past the base in the 2012 GOP primary than support for O’Donnell might look for him in the 2012 general. Meanwhile, for those hoping for outright support for Chris Coons from Mike Castle, the Castle camp has said there won’t be an endorsement. (Assistance can take a variety of other forms, though, that aren’t as likely to be apparent.) Finally, if you’re wondering about how Christine O’Donnell sees herself within the Middle Earth context, now you can find out.

• NH-Sen: Although New Hampshire recount law would allow Ovide Lamontagne to seek a recount (since he finished within 1.5% of the total votes cast), he just opted against such an action, conceding the race to Kelly Ayotte. He had until the end of the day to request it.

• AK-Gov: It’s the last day to get his name on the ballot in Alaska in any capacity (and not really at issue, since the AIP and Libertarians weren’t open to subbing him as their candidate). That leaves 2nd place GOP gubernatorial finisher Bill Walker with a write-in bid as his only option, too, and he sounds like such a bid is “unlikely.”

• CA-Gov: I don’t know if all is truly well now between Bill Clinton and Jerry Brown, or Clinton is just feeling that he’s adequately established himself as the alpha dog in the wake of Brown’s capitulation following their ill-advised sparring, but Clinton gave his endorsement to Brown. It remains to be seen what exactly Clinton does on Brown’s behalf, though.

• CO-Gov: Tom Tancredo is able to stay on the ballot, said a U.S. District Court judge yesterday. He’d been the subject of a challenge from local GOPers, but the judge ruled that it wasn’t relevant that Tancredo had been a member of the Republican Party up until launching his Constitution Party bid.

• FL-Gov: The DGA just plowed $1 million into the Florida governor’s race, showing that they indeed think this (thanks to Rick Scott’s presence) is one of their best pickup opportunities but also that the route to doing so will be through a whole lot of money.

• GA-Gov: Nathan Deal is fighting back against reports that he’s in such financial disarray right now that he might need to sell his house to avoid default on a large business loan. The $2.3 million loan is due on Feb. 1, which exceeds the Deal family’s net worth. (This was an investment in a business started by his daughter which failed completely; it’s entirely separate from the family auto salvage business that’s at the heart of the Ethics complaint that chased him out of the House.)

• MD-Gov: Looks like we won’t have any lingering bad feelings here, unlike a lot of other establishment/Tea Party GOP primaries: Brian Murphy, who lost badly to Bob Ehrlich, has offered his endorsement to Ehrlich “if he’s willing to accept it.”

• DSCC: I guess Charles Schumer looked at yesterday’s election results and decided he didn’t have much to worry about in November from Jay Townsend. He just transferred $1 million to the DSCC from his own cash yesterday, on top of a previous $1 million in August. That leaves him with “only” about $22 million CoH… about the same amount of cash on hand that the DSCC has!

• DCCC, NRCC: The DCCC and NRCC are out with slew of independent expenditures advertisements. (Expect to see that phrase in every digest for the next month and a half.) The DCCC rolled out three new IEs in HI-01, MI-01, and AL-02. The NRCC’s buy is in 10 districts: most significantly in IN-02 (for $135K), but also AZ-01, CA-11, FL-02, MS-01, TX-17, VA-05, WI-07 (for $79K), and TN-08 (for $105K). If you want more details on the NRCC’s bid, you can check out the actual FEC filing.

• Self-funders: The Wall Street Journal has a helpful rundown on how self-funders are faring this year. As with, well, pretty much every other year, they’re faring quite poorly. Of the 10 biggest self-funders in this cycle’s Senate races, only three actually are still running (Linda McMahon, Carly Fiorina, and Ron Johnson); the other seven (Jeff Greene, Steve Pagliuca, Bill Binnie, David Malpass, Sue Lowden, Jim Bender, and Terrence Wall) all fell by the wayside, often in spectacular fashion. Same story in the House, where only three of the top 10 self-funders (Tom Ganley, Randy Altschuler, and Matt Doheny) are still functional.

• Redistricting: Any SSP readers out in Arizona? Here’s your chance to get out from behind Dave’s App and actually get your hands on the real thing! The state’s nonpartisan redistricting commission is seeking applications from the public for appointment to the 5-member commission.

• SSP TV:

• 60+ Assoc.: The health care astroturfers are running anti-Dem ads in WI-03, WI-08, NY-01, NY-20, and PA-10

• AFF: AFF launches a total $2.3 million buy in seven Dem districts: AL-02, GA-08, MI-01, MI-07, NJ-03, SC-05, and WV-01

• American Crossroads: Rove, Inc., is spending $330K on a MO-Sen ad and $550K on a CO-Sen ad

• FL-Sen: The US Chamber of Commerce hits Charlie Crist, pointing to his many flip-flops

• NV-Sen: The Sharron Angle camp has another anti-Harry Reid ad, calling him “the best friend an illegal immigrant ever had”

• NY-Sen-B: Kirsten Gillibrand’s out with her first ad, more or less explicitly introducing herself despite her two years or service

• NC-02: Bob Etheridge isn’t leaving anything to chance this year, rolling out an ad that’s mostly a pleasant bio spot

• OH-18: I mentioned Zack Space’s anti-NAFTA ad yesterday, but here’s an actual link to the ad

• PA-06: Jim Gerlach’s first ad has him stepping away from the Republican label, saying he’s “an independent voice for taxpayers”

• PA-10: Chris Carney’s ad goes there, hitting Tom Marino on his ties to sketchy casino entrepreneur Louis DeNaples

• SC-05: Mick Mulvaney’s new ad hits John Spratt for having gone native in Washington

• WI-07: Is the DCCC taking a page from the Fred Davis “Celebrity” ad that seemed to bizarrely work against Obama? Their new ad against Sean Duffy is rife with clips from his days on The Real World

• Rasmussen:

• FL-Sen: Kendrick Meek (D) 23%, Marco Rubio (R) 41%, Charlie Crist (I) 30%

• OH-Gov: Ted Strickland (D-inc) 43%, John Kasich (R) 50%

• PA-Sen: Joe Sestak (D) 41%, Pat Toomey (R) 49%

• VT-Gov: Peter Shumlin (D) 49%, Brian Dubie (R) 46%

• VT-Sen: Patrick Leahy (D) 62%, Len Britton (R) 32%

PPP (pdf) (9/11-12, likely voters, 7/23-25 in parentheses):

Paul Hodes (D): 43 (42)

Kelly Ayotte (R): 47 (45)

Undecided: 9 (13)

(MoE: ±2.2%)

PPP’s shift from a registered to a likely voter model doesn’t change the spread significantly in New Hampshire, where Ayotte leads 2nd CD Rep. Paul Hodes by four points. Their LV model has a sample that split its vote by 47-47 between Obama and McCain (down from a 9-point Obama win in 2008, and a three-point Obama edge in PPP’s last poll). Both Ayotte and Hodes begin the general election campaign equally damaged: Ayotte’s favorables took at turn for the worse, at 35-47, but so have Hodesey’s, which are at 35-46. Hodes has been battered by a seven-figure Chamber of Commerce ad buy, while Ayotte just barely survived a competitive primary despite her big financial advantage on movement conservative Ovide Lamontagne.

Of note is that compared to her Republican primary opponents, Ayotte isn’t particularly stronger – Lamontagne and Bender both had similar leads on Hodes according to this poll, while Binnie trailed Hodes by a point. (Still, it’s clear that the underfunded, more obviously conservative Lamontagne would have been the better choice for Dems, no matter the top lines of this poll.)

SurveyUSA for KFSN-TV (9/10-12, likely voters, no trend lines):

Jim Costa (D-inc): 48

Andy Vidak (R): 46

Undecided: 6

(MoE: ±4.2%)

Jim Costa’s coming off a whopping 74-26 win over unheralded GOP challenger Jim Lopez in 2008, but SurveyUSA thinks that cherry farmer Andy Vidak is within striking distance of an upset here this fall. The 20th District is at least somewhat competitive, having gone for John Kerry by only three points over Bush in 2004 (but also supporting Obama by 60-39 in ’08 and Al Gore by 55-44 a decade ago). One big red flag is SUSA’s estimation of the Hispanic turnout: they’re pegging it at just 30%. (Note that this CD was 63% Hispanic as of 2000.) In what appears to be an effort to preemptively address criticism with their sample’s demographics, SUSA broke with their normal practice and banged out the following:

* If Hispanics make up 30% of voters on Election Day, Costa and Vidak finish effectively even, Costa 48%, Vidak 46%, within the survey’s theoretical margin of sampling error. At this hour, Republicans are, subject to change as the campaign unfolds, within reach of a take-way. If Hispanic turnout is 30% or less on election day, other turnout issues, such as the number of males vs females, could potentially come into play and help decide the contest.

* If Hispanics make up 35% of voters on Election Day, Costa is better positioned to hold the seat for the Democrats: he would lead today by approximately 7 points, 50% to 43% in a hypothetical analysis conducted by SurveyUSA.

* If Hispanics make up 40% of voters on Election Day, Costa today would lead by approximately 11 points, 52% to 41%, according to a hypothetical analysis conducted by SurveyUSA.

Meanwhile, in the open seat race to replace George “Who?” Radanovich, GOP state Sen. Jeff Denham leads physician/attorney Loraine Goodwin by 63-30.

Per the Union Leader:

Kelly Ayotte wins U.S. Senate primary, defeating Ovide Lamontagne by more than 1,600 votes.

Note: The final projection by the boys down at SSP Labs last night was Ayotte by 1838.

A total missed opportunity for the Tea Party Express (as was the surprisingly soft showing of Charlie Bass in NH-02 for like-minded movement conservatives). Oh well – we’ll always have Christine!

UPDATE: The final tally is Ayotte 53,055, Lamontagne 51,377 (a spread of 1,678).

Public Policy Polling (9/11-12, likely voters, 8/7-8 in parentheses):

Chris Coons (D): 50 (44)

Christine O’Donnell (R): 34 (37)

Undecided: 16 (19)

Chris Coons (D): 35 (35)

Mike Castle (R): 45 (48)

Undecided: 20 (17)

(MoE: ±3.2%)

The loud rumbling sound you’re hearing is the implosion of Republican chances in the Delaware Senate race, previously one of their gimmees that were the foundation for big overall Senate gains. As you can see, Democratic New Castle Co. Executive Chris Coons was well on track to lose to Mike Castle (although by a narrower margin than others polls have seen)… but the state’s remaining Republican electorate saw fit to nominate Christine O’Donnell last night, giving Coons a pretty clear shot at the win.

How bad a fit for the Delaware general electorate is O’Donnell? Let’s look at some of the underlying details: Castle’s favorables are 44/40, while O’Donnell’s are 29/50. 45% thought Mike Castle was “just right,” while 31% said “too liberal” and 15% “too conservative.” On other hand, Christine O’Donnell is 40% “too conservative,” with only 35% “just right” and 9% “too liberal.” By a 59-26 margin Castle was seen “fit to hold public office;” by a 49-31 margin O’Donnell is not. 18% say a Sarah Palin endorsement would make it more likely for them to vote for a candidate, while 52% say less likely. 15% say they’re members of the Tea Party, 71% are not. All in all, a pretty serious indication that the Delaware Republican Party, shrunken by the defection of many moderates to the Dems as in many other northeastern states, has been distilled to irrational purism in its purest essence.

UPDATE: Swing State Project is moving this race to Lean Democratic (from Lean Republican). While this poll might be more suggestive of “Likely D,” we don’t want to underestimate the power of a particularly revved-up Republican base in an open-seat race, even in a blue state like Delaware.

[cross-posted at DLCC.org – SSP has been paying a lot of attention to the Ohio House and Ohio redistricting, so we hope the latest campaign news is of interest to folks here.]

Part 1 of 2:

A relative handful of Ohio House contests offer Democrats an opportunity to unpack one of the worst GOP gerrymanders in the country, and they offer Republicans a chance to fine-tune their handiwork and wipe away the Democratic gains since 2006.

Last week was a busy one in the campaign to defend the Democrats' narrow majority, underscoring the two-month sprint that's all that remains between now and Election Day.

In lieu of a morning digest, let’s continue our series of community surveys by holding a cattle call for all the Governor’s races up this year.

In case you haven’t done one of these before, rank the gov seats that are up this fall in order of likelihood of flipping party control. The traditional SSP way is to include seats held by both parties in a single list (separate lists make comparisons harder). Go as far down the list as you like. If you need some food for thought, check out Swing State’s gubernatorial race ratings. Have fun!