Month: September 2010

NH, NY, and WI Results Thread #4

3:00am: Still no call in NH-Sen, or even much of any progress. Only a few more precincts trickled in over the last hour (now 83% reporting). Apparently they were Ovide-friendly areas, though, because Ayotte’s lead shifted down to 964. We can stick a fork in the last other race that’s still outstanding: incumbent Adrian Fenty has reportedly conceded to Vincent Gray in the Washington, DC mayoral primary. With that, we’re hanging it up for the night!

2:08am: If you’re wondering what’s up with NH-Sen, it’s still a smallish Ayotte lead, now with 82% reporting. Ayotte leads Lamontagne by 1,346 (still 38-37).

2:05am: And here’s some bigass news via the Twitter: Rick Lazio, who has the Conservative line, is planning to “fight it out” through November. Not that it’ll have an impact on the bottom line… now Andrew Cuomo gets to win 70-15-15 instead of 70-30.

2:03am: It’s over in NH-01: the AP has called it for Frank Guinta. With 81% reporting (91/113), he’s now beating Rich Ashooh and Sean Mahoney 32-28-28 (Mahoney got a late surge as Portsmouth came in). He has a 2,200 vote lead over Ashooh. The baggage-laden Guinta faces Carol Shea-Porter in November.

1:26am: One last projection from the SSP mainframe: we’re seeing a 1,838-vote win for Ayotte, and a 2,486-vote win for Guinta. That’s based on the latest batch of precincts (taking us up to 238 of 301, which is 79% in). Right now, Ayotte leads Lamontagne by 1,213 (38-37), while Guinta leads Ashooh by 2,237 (32-28).

1:22am: The AP has also called NH-02 for Charlie Bass. He currently leads Jennifer Horn 43-35, with a margin of about 4,000 votes, with 80% reporting. Unfortunately, facing the moderate and well-known Bass makes our matchup with Ann McLane Kuster more difficult than a matchup against teabagging Horn.

1:20am: AP has called the NY-AG race, and Maggie Haberman is reporting that Kathleen Rice has conceded, making Eric Schneiderman the Dem AG nominee. (Oh, who am I kidding… making him the AG.) It’s 34 Schneiderman, 31 Rice, with 91% reporting.

1:14am: And in NH-02, with 69% reporting, Bass leads Horn and Giuda 42-36-17. Bass’s lead is 2,708. Our model projects a 4,1110 vote win for Bass at night’s end.

1:12am: In NH-01, with 69% reporting, Guinta leads Ashooh and Mahoney 33-29-27. Guinta’s lead is 2,131. Our model projects, in the end, Guinta wins by 2,555.

1:10am: Another 10 precincts, so it’s 70% reporting. Ayotte’s up by 792 (still 38-38 with Lamontagne). That moves our projection to 1,576.

1:05am: 20 more precincts just showed up in NH, taking us up to 67% reporting. (Including all of Laconia reporting en masse, apparently.) Ayotte’s now leading Lamontagne by 700 votes. Our model has adjusted to project a final Ayotte victory of 1,593.

1:00am: If you’re wondering where we are currently, and not where we’ll be in the future, it’s Ayotte and Lamontagne both at 38%, with Ayotte up by 421. That’s with 60% reporting. (Bill Binnie is in 3rd at 14%, with 12K votes. If he spent $6 million of his own money, that’s only about $500 per vote.)

12:56am: SSP Labs is bending the curve downward: now we’re seeing a 1,441 Ayotte victory after everything’s been counted.

12:48am: Sarah Palin appears to have either dropped her BlackBerry on the floor, or else has lapsed into speaking Norwegian, with her latest Tweet:

Competitive trongmsgssent& tonite;congrats 2 the victors;Now, Commonsense Constitutionalists, let’s unite

12:46am: In case you were wondering, Mike Castle has now made clear that he will not endorse or otherwise support Christine O’Donnell. (No word on a Coons endorsement?) He also made clear that he won’t pursue a write-in bid, which would be most he could do.

12:44am: The AP has also now called NY-Sen-B’s GOP primary for Joe DioGuardi (who also has the Con line). He wins over Malpass and Blakeman, 42-38-20. With Kara departed from American Idol, I suppose Joe resumes being the most famous member of the DioGuardi clan.

12:41am: Here’s a couple calls from the “who cares?” department that we didn’t mention earlier: Jay Townsend (who also has the Con line) won the NY-Sen-A GOP line, 54-46, over Gary Berntsen. And in MD-Sen, Eric Wargotz eventually won the GOP nomination; he’ll face off against Barb Mikulski.

12:35am: SSP Labs has adjusted the NH-Sen projection, with the recent Ayotte surge. Now we’re looking at Ayotte by 1,783 in the end.

12:34am: Looks like Charlie Bass may have bottomed out early in NH-02 and is starting to put some distance between him and Jennifer Horn. Now he’s up 42-36, with 17 for Bob Giuda.

12:29am: Nathan Gonzales, ongoing debunker of the “anti-incumbent” meme, points out that as of tonight, 415 of 422 incumbents (House + Senate) have won re-election.

12:24am: In fact, the switch is already underway: the AP is seeing, for the first time, Kelly Ayotte in the lead. She’s up 39-38 (with a 200-vote spread), with almost half reporting. It doesn’t look like any of the bigger cities (other than Manchester and Nashua, who are done) reported anything, so the difference seemed to come from small towns.

12:22am: SSP Labs has kicked into gear, looking at NH-Sen by county-by-county extrapolation. It’s going to go down to the wire, but we’re seeing a 374-vote win for Kelly Ayotte at the end of the count.

12:07am: Matt Doheny wins the GOP nod against Doug Hoffman in NY-23. Cat fud lovers take note: Hoffman still has the Conservative ballot line for November… and Hoffman is Hoffman!

12:05am: We’re now at 40% in, and Ovide’s lead has whittled down to 733 votes. Guinta and Bass are both up by a cool grand.

11:58pm: Lamontagne’s lead has shrunk to 1127, and Bass is now up 910.

11:53 pm: Adrian Fenty is saved from Bob Inglis-dom, having recovered to a 45-54 deficit in DC.

11:50 pm: In New Hampshire, Charlie Bass in NH-02 is the only one who’s seen his lead increase, now to 668 votes. Guinta’s down to 891 in NH-01, and sadly, Ovide’s lead is now down to 1,324.

11:47 pm: For NY-AG, Eric Schneiderman now leads Kathleen Rice by more than 10,000 votes, mostly on his strength in NYC (44-25 over Rice). However, 71% of the city is now reporting, compared to 60% of LI. For NY-Sen-B, Joe DioGuardi continues to lead in all regions of the state with a narrow 42-39 margin.

11:44 pm: At least a second member of the NY State Senate has been booted tonight, the always-sketchy Pedro Espada. Note that both defectors, Espada and Monserrate, have been rejected by voters.

11:40 pm: Reid Ribble the Raging Roofer has been declared the winner in WI-08. Worst incumbent performance of the night, currently, goes to Adrian Fenty, who’s now staring at 70-29 deficit in the DC Mayoral primary. This is in contrast to Charlie Rangel, who’s just been declared the winner in NY-15 with 53%.

11:38 pm: We’re oddly back where we started in NH-02, where Charlie Bass’ lead over Jen Horn is now 203 votes. Guinta leads Ashooh by 950 votes in NH-01, and Lamontagne’s lead over Ayotte is now less than 4%.

11:36 pm: NY-13 has also been called for Michael Grimm.

11:34 pm: Out in NY-01, Randy Altschuler’s been declared the winner. Charlie Rangel is pulling a surprisingly strong 52% in NY-15, while Matt Doheny clings to a 7-point lead in NY-23.

11:26 pm: More NH precincts slowly trickling in, with Bass slightly padding his margin in NH-02, now up to 400 votes. Ovide’s lead continues to slide, now below 4.5%. Further up the ballot in New York, Eric Schneiderman now leads Kathleen Rice, though the city is now 47% reporting compared to 43% of Lawn Guyland. Joe DioGuardi continues to lead for the right to challenge Kirsten Gillibrand, narrowly leading Malpass in the City, on LI, Upstate, and Westchester.

11:22 pm: DavidNYC at the helm here. I’ve been waiting to write these words since February: The AP has called NY-14 for Carolyn Maloney. All is well in the Silk Stocking district. That is all. Carry on.

11:17 pm: With 88% reporting in NY-01, Altschuler is leading Demos 45-30, with Cox at 24.  This is unfortunate since Altschuler has the Conservative line as well, but cat fud lovers need not worry, as there’ll be Meow Mix afoot regardless in NY-23, as Doheny and Hoffman have split the Independence and Conservative lines. With 64% reporting there, Doheny is up 54-46.

11:13 pm: Back in New York, SSP’s ancestral home, there are a slew of House races to report on. Gary Ackerman has had a surprisingly weak performance in NY-05 floating in the 60’s all night, currently 66-34. Ed Towns has been declared the winner in NY-10, also with a 66-34 margin.

11:10 pm: In New Hampshire, Ovide’s lead over Ayotte continues to thin, as more of the areas outside Ovide’s I-93 strongholds start to report. Charlie Bass’ lead is now 220 votes, but with much left to report.

11:08 pm: Meanwhile, in DC, a few more non-absentee precincts have rolled in, with incumbent Fenty now finding himself in a 59-39 hole.

11:05 pm: Real World update: Sean Duffy’s been called the winner in WI-07 with 67%, while Kevin Powell is getting only 34% against Ed Towns in NY-10.

11:03 pm: It turns out that we’re not the only ones that find Rick Lazio boring and lifeless! The AP calls the GOP Gov nod for Carl “Welfare Prison” Paladino, who now earns the right to get his ass handed to him by Andrew Cuomo. Lazio, of course, still keeps the Conservative ballot line…haven’t we had enough Cat Fud tonight?

11:01 pm: These New Hampshire precincts trickle in mighty slowly, but they sure pack a punch. Charlie Bass is now only leading Jen Horn by 202 votes or 1.2% in NH-02. Ovide Lamontagne continues to maintain a slight edge over Kelly Ayotte, though she’s closed to within 5%.

10:58 pm: In the westernmost state tonight, Wisconsin, the GOP Governor’s nod’s been called for Scott Walker, who’s now leading Mark Neumann 56-41 with 37% reporting. In the House races, Sean Duffy has 67% in WI-07; Reid Ribble has 51% in WI-08.

Results:

MA, MD, NH, NY, RI, & WI Results Thread #3

11:01pm: Let’s move the party over here!

11:00pm: We finally have something out of the DC mayor’s race, but it’s only partially absentees. Adrian Fenty (the incumbent) leads Vincent Gray 58-41 (for now).

10:58pm: The AP finally called MD-01, which I’d kind of forgotten about. As expected, Andy Harris beats Rob Fisher; he currently leads 67-33 with 57% in.

10:56pm: Wow, things are just continuing to dwindle for Charlie Bass in NH-02. He’s up over Jennifer Horn now only 41-37, with third wheel Bob Giuda at 17 (meaning that Bass vs. only one teabagger would have been a convincing teabagger win). And that’s with only 16% in.

10:54pm: Is there some hope for Eric Schneiderman in the NY AG race? He’s pulled with 33-27 behind Kathleen Rice as The City starts to report. Schneiderman’s up 45-25 over Rice in NYC, but also 32-21 in Westchester + Rockland. (Rice, the Nassau Co DA, is up 57-22 on Long Island.)

10:50pm: One other prominent Dem state Senator going to massive defeat in New York: Pedro Espada (the coup leader who’s likely going to prison for health care fraud) is losing SD-33 to David Rivera by a whopping 76-17 margin.

10:46pm: 23% are in statewide for the New York GOP. Carl Paladino is still with a serious lead in the Gov race (though still shrinkin): 61-39 over Rick Lazio. In NY-Sen-B, it’s DioGuardi 41, Malpass 40, Blakeman 20. (Could this turn out to be the race that takes the longest tonight to get a call?) And in poor forgotten NY-Sen-A, it’s Jay Townsend 57, Gary Berntsen 43.

10:42pm: Checking back in on our incumbent Dems in New York: in NY-14, Maloney leads Saujani 85-15 with 10% in. In NY-10, Ed Towns is leading Kevin Powell (the other Real World alum in a primary tonight) 66-34 with 15% in. And in NY-15, with 8% in, Charlie Rangel is at 45%, but with his nearest competition (Adam Clayton Powell IV) back at 23.

10:40pm: As expected, William Keating caught a bit of a bounce as his Norfolk Co. base continued to report. The AP just called the MA-10 Dem primary for him (he’ll face off against Jeff Perry). He’s ahead of O’Leary 55-45 with 77% reporting.

10:36pm: No, it’s not you… New Hampshire is still moving in slow motion. NH-Sen is at 20% in, with Lamontagne at 44 and Ayotte at 36. Could tighten as the state’s outer reaches report. In NH-01 for the GOP, it’s Guinta 37, Ashooh 34, Mahoney 20 (with 28% in); bad news for Guinta is that all of Manchester has reported. And in the GOP’s NH-02, it’s Charlie Bass looking weak in the face of a teabagging; he leads Jennifer Horn 43-36 (with only 15% in).

10:34pm: For some reason, 19% are in in the Dem AG primary, despite that also being statewide. Kathleen Rice is in the lead at 36. Coffey’s at 25 and Schneiderman’s at 22. Also an interesting note for state Senate watchers: long-time Dem state Sen. William Stachowksi lost a primary in his Buffalo-area seat to Tim Kennedy by a wide margin.

10:33pm: The Carl Paladino lead is shrinking quite a bit, as places other than Buffalo report. His lead on Rick Lazio in the GOP gube race in New York is down to 67-33, with 13% in.

10:30pm: Paul Begala sums up the night, and pretty much all of politics: “If Christine O’Donnell can’t stand masturbation, she’ll hate the US Senate.”

10:28pm: Wow, things flipped in the GOP primary in NY-23. With 17% in, Matt Doheny now leads Doug Hoffman 56-44.

10:25pm: Only 2% is in in the GOP primary in NY-13, but the marginally employed Mike Grimm has a big lead over possibly ‘connected’ Mike Allegretti, 65-35. Further out Long Island, Randy Altschuler’s still leading George Demos and Chris Cox, 46-31-23, in NY-01 (31% reporting).

10:23pm: Charlie Rangel’s looking in better, but still weak, shape, up to 57% now with 1% reporting in NY-15. And here’s a surprise, in NY-05, not on anyone’s radar: long-time backbencher Gary Ackerman is at only 65 (with 3% reporting) to the unheralded P. Maher’s 35.

10:22pm: This won’t surprise you, but Kirsten Gillibrand has been called the winner of the Dem Senate primary.

10:21pm: RI-02 has been called by the AP for Jim Langevin, who with 56% of the vote can be added to the long list of Reps. surviving their 2010 primary with lower-than-usual numbers.

10:18pm: Things are super-close in MA-10 right now on the Dem side. Keating leads 50.5-49.5 over O’Leary, with 60% in. But Keating may push that lead, as less of his base (Norfolk and Plymouth Cos.) has reported (53%) than O’Leary base (Barnstable: 74% reporting). Both lead 69-31 in their respective turfs.

10:17pm: Ooops, thanks to the RGA press release, I’ve been reminded that there was a GOP gubernatorial primary in Rhode Island. Former communications director for Don Carcieri, John Robitaille, is the nominee, beating former state Rep. Victor Moffitt 69-31.

10:15pm: No surprise here; the AP has called WI-Sen for Ron Johnson on the GOP side, with 84% of the vote. In the Gov race, with 13% in, it’s Walker 51, Neumann 46, but not much Milwaukee Co. has reported yet so Walker’s lead should go up.

10:12pm: The margin for Frank Guinta in NH-01 on the GOP side keeps narrowing: he’s only leading at 37 now (with 30% reporting), but it’s Rich Ashooh, not Sean Mahoney, who’s closing. Ashooh’s at 34, with Mahoney still at 20. By the way, in the NH-02 GOP primary, with only 14% reporting, Charlie Bass leads Jennifer Horn 45-34. The current tally on the Dem side (already called) is Kuster 74, Swett 26.

10:11pm: David Cicilline, despite being in the low 30s, has been called the winner in the Dem primary in RI-01 by the AP. He’ll face John Loughlin in November.

10:10pm: Yikes, check out the O’Donnell photo at the WaPo!

10:08pm: We’re up to 19% in NH-Sen, still not much new to say there: 45 for Lamontagne, 36 for Ayotte.

Hope you’re enjoying the Fancy Feast, John Cornyn!

Results:

DE, MA, MD, NH, NY, RI & WI Results Thread #2

10:06pm: In Rhode Island, in RI-01 with almost half in, it’s Cicilline 36, Lynch 22, Gemma 22, Segal 20. And in RI-02 also with almost half in, it’s Langevin 56, Dennigan 35.

10:02pm: As for the Dem House primaries in New York, we’ve got only 1% in in NY-14 but are looking at a blowout, with Maloney beating Saujani 83-17. There’s only one precinct reporting in NY-15, with Rangel looking bad at 39% but still winning because of the fractured field.

10:01pm: Briefly back to NH-02: Ann McLane Kuster has been called by the AP as the winner, beating Katrina Swett. Still no call on the GOP side, where Charlie Bass faces Jennifer Horn.

10:00pm: Turning to some GOP House races, in NY-01 with 10% reporting, we have Altschuler at 46, Demos at 31, and Cox at 23. (More egg on the state GOP’s face.) With 4% in in NY-23, Doug Hoffman leads Matt Doheny 55-45. (Remember if Doheny loses, he still has the IP line for November.)

9:58pm: Things are actually much tighter in the Senate race, where Joe DioGuardi had looked like the favorite. He leads David Malpass only 42-38, with Bruce Blakeman at 20. Kirsten Gillibrand is having little trouble with her primary challenge from Gail Goode, 77-23, on the D side.

9:56pm: Moving on to the Empire State, where there’s finally enough votes to talk about. Maybe the biggest news: with 5% reporting, the teabagger trifecta may in fact be completed tonight: Carl Paladino is dominating Rick Lazio, 78-22. That should diminish, though, as the most precincts of any county have come in from Erie (which has Paladino’s home town of Buffalo).

9:55pm: MA-10 has been called on the R side, with up-and-coming baggage-toting state Rep. Jeff Perry beating passe baggage-toting ex-state Treasurer Joe Malone.

9:53pm: Only 4% in in WI-08, but Reid Ribble seems on way to winning the GOP nod. He’s at 55, leading Roth at 27 and McCormick at 15. Did the volleyball coaching make all the difference?

9:51pm: With 5% in statewide in WI-Gov, it’s not looking as interesting as before. Walker leads Neumann 51-46. No problems for Johnson in WI-Sen, leading Westlake 84-11.

9:48pm: We’re up to 325/325 in DE-AL… but no AP call. Glen Urquhart leads 49-48, with about a 500-vote edge.

9:47pm: Things are still happening verrrry slowly in New Hampshire. We’re up to 16% reporting in NH-Sen, and it’s 46 Lamontagne, 35 Ayotte, 11 Binnie, 7 Bender. Ovide’s dominated in the commuter towns along I-93, which is his core area.

9:44pm: And with 3% reporting, it’s a little closer in RI-02 than expected: Jim Langevin leads Betsy Dennigan only 53-38.

9:43pm: Also a few numbers from Rhode Island. In RI-01, with about 1% reporting, David Cicilline leads, with David Segal in 2nd, followed by Lynch and Gemma: 41-27-16-16.

9:37pm: We’re getting our first Wisconsin dribbles in, and maybe it’s too early to talk about it with less than 1% in, but the GOP gube primary is looking interesting: Scott Walker and Mark Neumann are both at 48, with Walker up by only 12 votes.

9:36pm: Hey, did we mention there’s a GOP primary for MD-Sen (to go up against Barb Mikulski)? I’d assumed Eric Wargotz, a wealthy county commissioner from the Eastern Shore, had it locked down after Amadore dropped out, but he’s only leading the heretofore unknown J. Rutledge 34-32.

9:34pm: And up in Southie, the AP just called MA-09 for Stephen Lynch, who survives his weird anti-HCR gambit. He beats Mac d’Alessandro 64-36.

9:32pm: In case you’re wondering about the percentages on some of those Maryland races we glossed over, the GOP gube primary wasn’t even close (memo to Brian Murphy: Sarah Palin can’t save you now). It was Ehrlich 81, Murphy 19. And in MD-04, it was even more lopsided: Donna Edwards beat state Del. Herman Taylor 81-13.

9:30pm: The gap’s closing on the R side in DE-AL. Michelle Rollins only back by about 500 behind Glen Urquhart.

9:28pm: In NH-01, we’re up to 25% reporting, and Frank Guinta’s lead is getting smaller as places other than Manchester report. He’s now at 41, with Rich Ashooh at 30 and Sean Mahoney at 20.

9:20pm: Big shift in MA-10, with Keating pulling into the lead in the Dem primary at 53-47. I’d like to attribute that to him tackling that purse snatcher, but actually it has to do with Norfolk (the county where he’s DA) coming him with 79% for him.

9:18pm: The DE DoE leapt to 320/325, with a 53/47 margin. Looks like a done deal.

9:17pm: Anyone wanna guess what those PPP numbers on the Coons/O’Donnell matchup are, that they teased today?

9:16pm: The AP calls it for O’Donnell!!!! (The Giants win the pennant! The Giants win the pennant!)

9:11pm: Sorry about the slow servers tonight, folks; looks like we’re getting a lot of traffic. At any rate, here’s a longish update to make up for lost time.

In MD-01, Andy Harris is rolling, 69-31, over Rob Fisher, including 65% on the Eastern Shore (Fisher’s turf). In MA-10, it’s O’Leary over Keating, 60-40 with 11% reporting, for the Ds, and for the Rs, it’s Perry with 69% over Malone. In MA-09, Lynch is in control, at 64%. In NH-01, Guinta leads with 16% in, at 43%. In NH-Sen, Lamontagne leads in every county but one (Coos), over 50%, with only 7% still reporting. One more update from DE-Sen: O’Donnell leads Castle 54-46 with 85% reporting, with a 4000 vote spread.

Fresh new thread.

Results:

DE, MA, MD & NH Primary Results Thread

9:06pm: Holy shit, let’s continue the party over here.

9:05pm: Update from the DE DoE! With 78% in (252 of 325), it’s O’Donnell 54 and Castle 46. 3600 votes separate them. Over in Maryland, MD-04 has been called for Donna Edwards, not much contest there either. Maybe also worth mentioning: the GOP primary in NH-Gov got called long ago (with only 7% reporting): John Stephen easily defeated his weird opposition, teabagging businessman Jack Kimball and social con activist Karen Testerman, 77-17-8.

9:00pm: In DE-AL, Glen Urquhart is, as PPP predicted, leading Michelle Rollins. He’s up 51-46 with 37% in.

8:50pm: And it wasn’t even a contest in Maryland — the AP has called the GOP gube nomination for Bob Ehrlich. He’s sitting on 82% of the vote so far.

8:49pm: In MA-09, douchebag conservadem Stephen Lynch leads Mac D’Allesandro by 43% with 3% in.

8:47pm: I can’t get through to the DE DoE, but the latest AP count has O’Donnell up by 55-45 with 37% in. 2300 vote spread.

8:43pm: Some non-DE updates: In MA-10, state Sen. Rob O’Leary leads Norfolk DA Bill Keating by 57-43, and Jeff Perry leads Joe Malone by 58-35 with 5% in. In MD-01, Andy Harris is leading Rob Fisher by 40 points.

8:39pm: We’re now up to 31% reporting in DE, and O’Donnell leads by 54-46 (or about 1400 votes).

8:37pm: We’re up to 22% reporting in DE, and O’Donnell leads by 56-44! 1450 vote spread.

8:35pm: Before conking out, the last DoE update had O’Donnell up by 55-45 with 17% reporting. 900 vote margin.

8:33pm: Folks, looks like we’ve crashed the DE DoE site. Restrain yourselves! (Yeah, as if that’s possible.)

8:31pm: Now it’s 14% reporting in Delaware. O’Donnell now up 55-45, with a 700-vote margin.

8:29pm: We’re up to about 11% reporting in Delaware, and O’Donnell leads Castle by 55-45. Hang on to your butts…

8:26pm: Now up to 25 precincts in Delaware, Christine O’Donnell is now leading Mike Castle 52-48, or about 180 votes.

8:22pm: We have some early numbers from the Delaware DoE site! Nutbag Christine O’Donnell leads Mike Castle by 655-449, or 59-41, with 8 out of 325 “Districts” reporting.

8:13pm: I just got off the horn with the Elections Division at the New Hampshire Secretary of State office. They inform me that it’s NEVER too early for a ganja break.

7:51pm: Via the Twitter, Delaware elections officials are expecting a quick count there, with most of the results being known by 9:30.

7:49pm: We’re up to 5% in, and Lamontagne is up by 53-32. Much of that is based on Lamontagne’s strength in his hometown of Manchester, though.

7:44pm: Checking in with the House races, baggage-laden Manchester Mayor Frank Guinta leads Rich Ashooh by 46-28 with 9% in. Sean Mahoney, a guy who’s spent a lot in recent weeks, is only pulling in 19%. In NH-02, ex-Rep. Charlie Bass leads Jen Horn by only 8%, but we’re just looking at a few hundred votes so far. (Likewise, Ann McLane Kuster has an early lead on Katrina Swett for the Dem nod.)

7:40pm: 3.7% is in, and Ovide leads by 53-32.

7:34pm: We have some early results in New Hampshire. With 2% in, Ovide Lamontagne leads Kelly Ayotte by 23 points, 54-31!

Polls will be closing in Delaware, Massachusetts and Maryland at 8pm Eastern (some polls have already closed in New Hampshire; the rest will follow at 8pm). We’ll be using this thread to follow the returns, and we’ll check in with Rhode Island, New York, and Wisconsin when polls close in those states at 9.

Results:

Primary Predictions Thread

Time for a little pre-game chatter, with polls closing in less than two hours in New Hampshire. Can Christine O’Donnell pull out the upset over Mike Castle in Delaware, or will the local GOP electorate get a last-minute blast of pragmatism? Can Ovide Lamontagne’s fast close carry him past Kelly Ayotte, or will he fall just short? Can Carl Paladino complete the teabagger trifecta in New York? Will Adrian Fenty, Charlie Rangel, Carolyn Maloney, Stephen Lynch, or even Donna Edwards find themselves on the incumbent scrap heap? Let us know in the comments!

(And in case you need a scorecard, check out our handy primary elections preview.)

SSP Daily Digest: 9/14 (Afternoon Edition)

• DE-Sen: It’d D-Day for the Republican Party: the “D” could stand for “Delaware,” or maybe for the “dipshits” in the Tea Party who we’ll see tonight whether they’ve fully succeeded in taking over the asylum. At any rate, the state GOP is rolling out a robocall from a former Christine O’Donnell 2008 staffer who’s now supporting Mike Castle; she says O’Donnell isn’t a “true conservative” (although that’s evidenced by her inability to get her own spending under control). O’Donnell’s camp responds saying the disgruntled staffer was fired after a week, rather than leaving on her own. The Beltway CW of today, at least as far as Politico goes, seems to be that Castle has regained some momentum over the last few days what with the increased scrutiny of O’Donnell, pointing to changes in responses to phonebanking in recent days.

• FL-Sen: Here’s an interesting endorsement for Charlie Crist, that may help him with the growing Haitian community in the Miami area. Haitian-American State Rep. Yolly Roberson, who recently lost the FL-17 Democratic primary, gave his backing to Crist instead of Kendrick Meek, whose newly-vacated seat he was vying to occupy.

• NV-Sen, NV-Gov: The first of three (count ’em) polls out in the Nevada Senate race has what just about everyone else has seen in this quickly-getting-overpolled race: Harry Reid leads Sharron Angle in the low single digits. Ipsos/Reuter’s second poll of the race gives Reid a 46-44 lead. (It was 48-44 in favor of Reid in their first poll in early August.) Apparently this wasn’t the respected pollster showing a single-digit gubernatorial race that Jon Ralston was rumbling about, though: their gubernatorial numbers are 60 for Brian Sandoval, and 31 for Rory Reid. (The trendlines were 50-39 for Sandoval, so that’s quite a drop, especially when considering that the Senate race has barely budged.)

• WA-Sen: Republicans hoping for some sort of reconciliation in Washington are out of luck. Clint Didier is still holding out on endorsement for Dino Rossi, popping up briefly yesterday to tell Politico that he won’t do so unless Rossi capitulates to Didier’s three demands regarding action items.

• RI-Gov: Michael Bloomberg parachuted into yet another race with an endorsement, as part of his nebulous goals of advancing some sort of center-left post-partisan zeitgeist. He offered his backing to moderate GOPer-turned-liberal indie Lincoln Chafee, who seems to fit the Bloomberg worldview pretty well.

• NY-St. Sen.: Veteran political reporter Liz Benjamin is out with her handicapping of the New York state Senate races this year (New York elects all Senators every two years, so everybody’s up this year, as always). She points to seven Tossups, four of which are Dems and three of which are GOPers (thanks in large part to open seats). That means that control of the body, currently 32-29 (with 1 previously-GOP vacancy), is truly up for grabs this year. It’s all presented in a nice-looking map format, although the functionality needs some help.

• SSP TV:

• CA-Sen: Barbara Boxer’s campaign’s first ad emphasizes veterans, small business, and green jobs

• MO-Sen: The winning ad of the day may just be a little radio ad from Robin Carnahan, which actually uses a jingle (how many political ads do that anymore?); the song goes amusingly negative against Roy Blunt

• KY-Sen: The newest Jack Conway ad works the law & order angle, saying Rand Paul is soft on crime, while the NRSC is out with an ad that seems to be poking fun at Conway’s horse-owning ways as a means of linking him to Barack Obama… or something like that

• CO-Gov: The Colorado trainwreck continues unabated, as Tom Tancredo’s first ad is an anti-Dan Maes hit job, featuring a nice little old lady who says that Maes conned her out of her money without getting into any of the specifics

• FL-Gov: Rick Scott’s back on the air after letting his money have a few weeks off, trying yet again to tie Alex Sink to Barack Obama

• MA-Gov: An anti-Charlie Baker spot from Bay State Future hits Baker on his stewardship of the Big Dig, a 90s public works debacle that turned into a collective scar on the Massachusetts psyche

• CA-03: Ami Bera’s first ad focuses on Dan Lungren’s last minute pay raise that he gave himself as state AG, boosting his pension

• CO-07: Ed Perlmutter’s out with his first ad, a positive spot

• IL-11: Debbie Halvorson’s first ad uses testimonials from the unemployed to hit Adam Kinzinger hard for his support of free trade agreements

• OH-15: Mary Jo Kilroy, similarly endangered, also opts for the negative ad route, hitting Steve Stivers for his work as banking industry lobbyist

• OH-18: Sensing a theme? Zack Space hits Bob Gibbs on his support for free trade agreements too

• PA-07: Bryan Lentz is out with two separate ads, one a basic intro spot, the other making an argument that all Dems should be making: that supporting extension of the Bush tax cuts for the wealthy doesn’t jibe with wanting to reduce the deficit

• PA-08: Patrick Murphy talks to the camera to do some compare & contrast with Mike Fitzpatrick

• SD-AL: Two dueling ads from Stephanie Herseth Sandlin and Kristi Noem: Noem’s first ad is a generic attack on Washington, while Herseth tries to rebut an ad from AFF, saying, no, she’s actually conservative

• Rasmussen:

• CO-Gov: John Hickenlooper (D) 46%, Dan Maes (R) 21%, Tom Tancredo (C) 25%

• NV-Sen: Harry Reid (D-inc) 48%, Sharron Angle (R) 48%

• OH-Sen: Lee Fisher (D) 41%, Rob Portman (R) 49%

• A Rasmussen By Any Other Name Would Still Smell: When a gigantic slew of polls for Fox News came out, showing, as one might expect from Fox, bad results for Democrats, I wasn’t surprised. Something seemed off, though: I first noticed that this wasn’t Fox’s usual pollster (which is Opinion Dynamics), but someone called Pulse. Then some of the details really made my antennae twitch: these were auto-dialed polls conducted over one day (meaning no callbacks), and the day they chose was not only a Saturday (when young people tend to out, y’know, doing things) but freakin’ 9/11! Then Taegan Goddard helpfully pointed out this, which explains it all: Pulse Research is a subsidiary of Rasmussen. You may recall some discussion earlier in the year of a new Rasmussen venture that would let people pay $600 to poll anything or anyone they wanted… that’s Pulse. So, they’re just going in the Rasmussen containment pool with the “real” Rasmussen polls; for what it’s worth, the numbers are pretty much in line with where Rasmussen sees the races, so at least we know Pulse isn’t doing anything differently.

• CA-Gov: Jerry Brown (D) 43%, Meg Whitman (R) 49%

• CA-Sen: Barbara Boxer (D-inc) 46%, Carly Fiorina (R) 44%

• FL-Gov: Alex Sink (D) 49%, Rick Scott (R) 41%

• FL-Sen: Kendrick Meek (D) 21%, Marco Rubio (R) 41%, Charlie Crist (I) 27%

• NV-Gov: Rory Reid (D) 38%, Brian Sandoval (R) 56%

• NV-Sen: Harry Reid (D-inc) 44%, Sharron Angle (R) 45%

• OH-Gov: Ted Strickland (D-inc) 43%, John Kasich (R) 48%

• OH-Sen: Lee Fisher (D) 41%, Rob Portman (R) 48%

• PA-Gov: Dan Onorato (D) 40%, Tom Corbett (R) 50%

• PA-Sen: Joe Sestak (D) 41%, Pat Toomey (R) 47%

StephenCLE’s House Ratings – September 14 update

Welcome to another edition of StephenCLE’s House Predictions – September 14

Two weeks ago, I spoke of what I thought was going to be a disconnect between a vastly republican macro-environment and a democratic local environmental advantage.  I think we’re starting to see that in many districts across the country.  The republicans still lead by 6% in the pollster.com regression, suggesting that a huge red wave is still possible.  However, Team Red has received some rather troubling data in many individual districts in the past week or so.  Part of that is because the DCCC is starting to churn out internal polls to contest the huge number of republican polling we’ve seen, but the independent polling has been generally good for Team Blue this week too.  

Another strange trend I’ve noticed in the last two weeks is that, in districts in the likely and safe category, democrats took a beating, and many ratings moved rightward as a result.  But at the margins, in the toss up seats, most democratic candidates improved their position.  Thus, the likely and lean categories on the dem side got bigger this week even as the tossup category became more favorable.  

As a result, many seats moved from one direction to the other this week, but the majority went from red to blue.  I now project that the democrats will drop just 29 seats, the first time the overall number has been below 30 since early July.

As a procedural note, there are now enough districts changing each week that I think I’ll be doing this every week now between now and the election.  I’ll try to keep the updates on Tuesday each week, except for the last one, which will be the night before the election.

Old House – 256 Democrats, 179 Republicans

New House – 227 Democrats, 208 Republicans

National Swing – Republicans +29

Democratic Pickups (5) – DE-1, FL-25, IL-10, LA-2, HI-1

Republican Pickups (34) – AR-1, AR-2, AZ-5, CO-4, FL-2, FL-8, FL-24, IL-11, IL-14, IN-8, KS-3, LA-3, MD-1, MI-1, MI-7, MS-1, NH-2, ND-1, NY-19, NY-24, NY-29, OH-1, OH-15, PA-3, PA-7, PA-10, PA-11, SC-5, TN-6, TN-8, TX-17, VA-2, VA-5, WA-3,

Pickup Changes from last month:

Democrat to Republican – FL-24, PA-10

Republican to Democrat – AL-2, IA-3, NM-2, SD-1, TN-4

2010 Current House Map:

USHouse2010 - 9/14

Ratings changes for period September 2-13

1.Iowa-1 – Solid D to Likely D – Polling earlier in the week showed Bruce Braley in a tighter race than I had anticipated.  I was thinking about moving this race last update, but it’s definitely on the board now.

2.Iowa-2 – Solid D to Likely D – This race is a bit more surprising to me as Dave Loebsack is in a more democratic district against a weak opponent, yet polling showed him only up by 8 last week (granted, that was a republican firm’s poll).  Still, it’s enough to put this race onto the board as well.  

3.Massachusetts-5 – Solid D to Likely D – I wonder about this district a bit.  With the governor’s race sure to be close in MA, if there are any sitting congresscritters likely to be in danger, it’s probably Niki Tsongas, who’s never really been prolific in running up win margins.  This is more of a national/state mood move than anything else since we haven’t seen any polling.

4.Maine-2 – Solid D to Likely D – Michael Michaud is a very strong incumbent, but a PPP poll from last week has him up just 9 on his republican challenger.  That’s definitely enough to put the race into the rear view mirror a bit.  I don’t really think he’s overly endangered given the NRCC’s financial situation and his weak opponent, but if the wave is big, you never know.

5.Connecticut-5 – Likely D to Lean D – This is the least democratic district in Connecticut, and republican Sam Caliguri released an internal showing him within 1 of incumbent democrat Murphy.  The poll was a bit stale, but I’ve always thought that this one would be a fight just because of the PVI.  It moves to Lean.

6.Michigan-9 – Likely D to Lean D – With the democratic brand looking as if it looks less appetizing than a sick puppy in Michigan right now, I move this district to lean.  Rick Snyder is almost certain to romp here in the governor’s race, which has me nervous that Peters could get swept under.  We haven’t seen much polling here, so I’ll be on the lookout for one.

7.Washington-2 – Likely D to Toss Up – I’m a bit late to the party on this one, as polling has twice shown that this is a low single digit contest.  Maybe I was overrating just how strong an incumbent Rick Larsen is, but it’s clear that he’s in a tough fight right now.  The senate race is likely to be very close here.

8.Pennsylvania-4 – Lean D to Likely D – Polling for the DCCC shows Jason Altmire way ahead of his republican opponent, and perhaps I should have seen this coming seeing as how the strongest candidate for the GOP, Mary Beth Buchanan, lost badly in the primary.  There seems to be better opportunities for Team Red in the Keystone State.

9.Pennsylvania-8 – Lean D to Toss Up – Murphy vs Fitzpatrick is shaping up to be one of the closest races in the house battle this November.  It’s a case of strong incumbent vs strong challenger in a fairly swingish district.  Grab the popcorn as this one is going to be good.

10.Illinois-11 – Toss Up to Lean R – It’s really gone from bad to worse in a hurry for Debbie Halvorson, who is facing the specter of huge republican coattails in Illinois and an opponent that has been unrelenting.  Adam Kinzinger is looking pretty good at the moment according to most polling data.  

11.South Dakota-1 – Toss Up to Lean D – This race began to turn a bit when news rolled out about Kristi Noem’s horrifically bad driving record.  Herseth-Sandlin, who had been struggling with messaging earlier in the campaign, seems to have been given a gift and now even Rasmussen is showing her ahead, while independent polling has her up by 9.  

12.Tennessee-4 – Toss Up to Lean D – Scott DeJarlais just released an internal poll showing him trailing Lincoln Davis by 4.  I’m curious as to why he would release a poll like that unless he truly was behind, which is why I (rather begrudgingly) move this race to lean.  I still feel that any path to taking the House by Team Red requires this district to flip though.

13.Iowa-3 – Lean R to Toss Up – This race seemed like it was going the wrong way for Team Blue, until some unsightly transgressions in Brad Zaun’s past came to light about two weeks ago.  Since then, polling has been more positive for Leonard Boswell, including a republican firm putting him up by 9 last week.  That poll seems improbable to me, but there’s no doubt that the momentum here has swung.

14.New York-24 – Lean R to Toss Up – Well color me surprised.  This was a race that I thought was virtually gone thanks to Arcuri’s flip-flop on HCR, but maybe that move was actually a good one, as Arcuri surged with independents in the most recent poll of NY-24, which showed him ahead by upper single digits.  I’m still somewhat skeptical given Arcuri’s campaigning skills, but he’s looking better.

15.Florida-12 – Lean R to Toss Up – This is probably the most unlikely toss up race in the nation, a republican leaning seat in Central Florida in which the democratic candidate, Lori Edwards, has been an awful fundraiser.  That being said, Edwards has led in the only two polls I’ve seen here, both democratic internals, and republican candidate Dennis Ross has run a horrible campaign so far.  This could be the upset of the cycle if Edwards is able to pull it off, right now her chances are better than the pundits think.

16.Mississippi-1 – Lean R to Toss Up – A DCCC poll last week put Travis Childers up 4 against republican challenger Alan Nunnelee, which was enough to put this low-information contest into the toss-up column for the time being.  I still don’t feel good about this race, and am looking for independent corroboration of the DCCC poll before moving it out of the red column.

17.Washington-8 – Lean R to Likely R – It appears that Dave Reichert is in better standing for re-election then I thought, as polling last week put him up 13 on challenger Susan Delbene.  This race should probably tighten a bit thanks to Delbene’s huge amount of money, but I don’t like our chances much here now that the senate race looks close.  Delbene’s only path to victory probably involved a Murray rout.

18.Kansas-4 – Likely R to Lean R – Now here’s another unlikely pickup opportunity.  Democrat Raj Goyle has done virtually everything right so far in terms of messaging and fundraising, while Republican Mike Pompeo has been left out in the cold by virtually everybody on the GOP side.  Polling had Goyle trailing by just 3 last week, and while it’s tough to imagine him winning in a year like this, to call this a Safe R race (coughCharlieCookcough) is just plain wrong.

2010 House Big Board (as of September 14 update)

Solid Dem – 151 seats:

AL-7, AZ-4, AZ-7, CA-1, CA-5, CA-6, CA-7, CA-8, CA-9, CA-10, CA-11, CA-12, CA-13, CA-14, CA-15, CA-16, CA-17, CA-23, CA-27, CA-28, CA-29, CA-30, CA-31, CA-32, CA-33, CA-34, CA-35, CA-36, CA-37, CA-38, CA-39, CA-43, CA-51, CA-53, CO-1, CO-2, CT-1, CT-2, CT-3, FL-3, FL-11, FL-17, FL-19, FL-20, FL-23, GA-4, GA-5, GA-13, HI-2, IL-1, IL-2, IL-3, IL-4, IL-5, IL-7, IL-8, IL-9, IN-1, IN-7, MD-2, MD-3, MD-4, MD-5, MD-7, MD-8, MA-1, MA-2, MA-3, MA-4, MA-6, MA-7, MA-8, MA-9, MI-5, MI-12, MI-13, MI-14, MI-15, MN-4, MN-5, MN-7, MN-8, MS-2, MO-1, MO-3, MO-5, NV-1, NJ-1, NJ-6, NJ-8, NJ-9, NJ-10, NJ-13, NY-2, NY-4, NY-5, NY-6, NY-7, NY-8, NY-9, NY-10, NY-11, NY-12, NY-14, NY-15, NY-16, NY-17, NY-18, NY-21, NY-22, NY-27, NY-28, NC-1, NC-4, NC-12, NC-13, OH-9, OH-10, OH-11, OH-17, OK-2, OR-3, OR-4, PA-1, PA-2, PA-13, PA-14, RI-2, SC-6, TN-5, TN-9, TX-9, TX-15, TX-16, TX-18, TX-20, TX-25, TX-27, TX-28, TX-29, TX-30, VT-1, VA-3, VA-8, WA-1, WA-6, WA-7, WA-9, WV-3, WI-2, WI-4

Likely Dem – 36 seats:

Arkansas-4 (Ross)

Arizona-8 (Giffords)

California-18 (Cardoza)

California-20 (Costa)

California-47 (Sanchez)

Colorado-3 (Salazar)

Connecticut-4 (Himes)

Delaware-1 (Open)

Georgia-2 (Bishop)

Georgia-12 (Barrow)

Illinois-12 (Costello)

Indiana-2 (Donnelly)

Iowa-1 (Braley)

Iowa-2 (Loebsack)

Kentucky-3 (Yarmuth)

Louisiana-2 (Cao)

Maine-1 (Pingree)

Maine-2 (Michaud)

Massachusetts-5 (Tsongas)

Minnesota-1 (Walz)

North Carolina-2 (Etheridge)

North Carolina-7 (McIntyre)

North Carolina-11 (Shuler)

New Jersey-12 (Holt)

New Mexico-3 (Lujan)

New York-20 (Murphy)

New York-25 (Maffei)

Ohio-6 (Wilson)

Oregon-1 (Wu)

Pennsylvania-4 (Altmire)

Pennsylvania-17 (Holden)

Rhode Island-1 (Open)

Utah-2 (Matheson)

Virginia-9 (Boucher)

Virginia-11 (Connelly)

Wisconsin-3 (Kind)

Lean Dem – 25 seats:

Arizona-1 (Kirkpatrick)

Colorado-7 (Perlmutter)

Connecticut-5 (Murphy)

Hawaii-1 (Djou)

Idaho-1 (Minnick)

Illinois-10 (Open)

Illinois-17 (Hare)

Indiana-9 (Hill)

Kentucky-6 (Chandler)

Massachusetts-10 (Open)

Michigan-9 (Peters)

Mississippi-4 (Taylor)

New Jersey-3 (Adler)

New Mexico-1 (Heinrich)

New York-13 (McMahon)

New York-23 (Owens)

North Carolina-8 (Kissell)

Ohio-13 (Sutton)

Ohio-18 (Space)

Oregon-5 (Schrader)

Pennsylvania-12 (Critz)

South Dakota-1 (Herseth)

Tennessee-4 (Davis)

West Virginia-1 (Open)

Wisconsin-8 (Kagen)

Toss Up – 36 seats:

Alabama-2 (Bright)

Arizona-5 (Mitchell)

California-11 (McNerney)

Colorado-4 (Markey)

Georgia-8 (Marshall)

Florida-2 (Boyd)

Florida-8 (Grayson)

Florida-12 (Open)

Florida-22 (Klein)

Florida-24 (Kosmas)

Florida-25 (Open)

Illinois-14 (Foster)

Iowa-3 (Boswell)

Maryland-1 (Kratovil)

Michigan-7 (Schauer)

Mississippi-1 (Childers)

Missouri-4 (Skelton)

Nevada-3 (Titus)

New Hampshire-1 (Shea-Porter)

New Mexico-2 (Teague)

New York-1 (Bishop)

New York-19 (Hall)

New York-24 (Arcuri)

North Dakota-1 (Pomeroy)

Ohio-15 (Kilroy)

Ohio-16 (Boccieri)

Pennsylvania-3 (Dahlkemper)

Pennsylvania-7 (Open)

Pennsylvania-8 (Murphy)

Pennsylvania-10 (Carney)

South Carolina-5 (Spratt)

Tennessee-8 (Open)

Texas-17 (Edwards)

Texas-23 (Rodriguez)

Washington-2 (Larsen)

Wisconsin-7 (Open)

Lean Rep – 18 seats:

Alabama-5 (Open)

Arizona-3 (Open)

Arkansas-1 (Open)

California-3 (Lungren)

California-45 (Bono Mack)

Illinois-11 (Halvorson)

Indiana-8 (Open)

Kansas-3 (Open)

Kansas-4 (Open)

Michigan-1 (Open)

Minnesota-6 (Bachmann)

New Hampshire-2 (Open)

Ohio-1 (Driehaus)

Pennsylvania-11 (Kanjorski)

Pennsylvania-15 (Dent)

Virginia-2 (Nye)

Virginia-5 (Perriello)

Washington-3 (Open)

Likely Rep – 13 seats:

Arkansas-2 (Open)

California-44 (Calvert)

Indiana-3 (Open)

Louisiana-3 (Open)

Michigan-3 (Open)

Missouri-8 (Emerson)

Nebraska-2 (Terry)

New York-29 (Open)

Ohio-12 (Tiberi)

Pennsylvania-6 (Gerlach)

South Carolina-2 (Wilson)

Virginia-1 (Wittman)

Washington-8 (Reichert)

Solid Rep – 155 seats:

AL-1, AL-3, AL-4, AL-6, AK-1, AZ-2, AZ-6, AR-3, CA-2, CA-4, CA-19, CA-21, CA-22, CA-24, CA-25, CA-26, CA-40, CA-41, CA-42, CA-46, CA-48, CA-49, CA-50, CA-52, CO-5, CO-6, FL-1, FL-4, FL-5, FL-6, FL-7, FL-9, FL-10, FL-13, FL-14, FL-15, FL-16, FL-18, FL-21, GA-1, GA-3, GA-7, GA-9, GA-10, GA-11, ID-2, IL-6, IL-13, IL-15, IL-16, IL-18, IL-19, IN-4, IN-5, IN-6, IA-4, IA-5, KS-1, KS-2, KY-1, KY-2, KY-4, KY-5, LA-1, LA-4, LA-5, LA-6, LA-7, MD-6, MI-2, MI-4, MI-6, MI-8, MI-10, MI-11, MN-2, MN-3, MS-3, MO-2, MO-6, MO-7, MO-9, MT-1, NE-1, NE-3, NV-2, NJ-2, NJ-5, NJ-4, NJ-7, NJ-11, NY-3, NY-26, NC-3, NC-5, NC-6, NC-9, NC-10, OH-2, OH-3, OH-4, OH-5, OH-7, OH-8, OH-14, OK-1, OK-3, OK-4, OK-5, OR-2, PA-5, PA-9, PA-16, PA-18, PA-19, SC-1, SC-3, SC-4, TN-1, TN-2, TN-3, TN-6, TN-7, TX-1, TX-2, TX-3, TX-4, TX-5, TX-6, TX-7, TX-8, TX-10, TX-11, TX-12, TX-13, TX-14, TX-19, TX-21, TX-22, TX-24, TX-26, TX-31, TX-32, UT-1, UT-3, VA-4, VA-6, VA-7, VA-10, WA-4, WA-5, WV-2, WI-1, WI-5, WI-6, WY-1

NY-19: Hall Under 50, and Trailing Chief Challenger

Public Policy Polling for Daily Kos (9/11-12, likely voters, no trendlines):

John Hall (D-inc): 42

Nan Hayworth (R): 44

Undecided: 14

John Hall (D-inc): 42

Neil DiCarlo (R): 39

Undecided: 19

(MoE: 4%)

We decided to test this race because we thought it might serve as a helpful bellwether. Dem Rep. John Hall is a sophomore, first elected in 2006 to a district that had long been GOP-held. He sits in a suburban swing district (45% Kerry, 51% Obama) and has a progressive voting record. He’s drawn a strong opponent in Nan Hayworth, a Republican with a moderate enough record that could have earned her a serious teabagging, but which she was nonetheless able to avoid. Hayworth has also been a good fundraiser – she’s given her campaign half-a-million bucks, but she’s also raised more than $700K from individuals. Overall, she’s narrowly edged Hall, whose fundraising has proceeded at just 62% of his 2008 pace (to date).

In other words, this contest resembles many others in a number of ways, though in does stand out in certain respects (Hayworth’s relative sanity chief among them). And if this race is indeed representative, then it’s not looking pretty out there. Yes, on its face, the poll shows things more-or-less tied up, but 42% is not where you want to be if you’re an incumbent – especially when your opponent is unknown to 50% of the electorate. Among those who do know her, Hayworth sports a pretty decent 29-21 favorability rating, while Hall is struggling at a weak 39-43. In other words, Hayworth has room to grow, while Hall seems pretty firmly rooted at 42%. (That’s why we included Neil DiCarlo, an unknown and generally disliked Some Dude who will likely be turned into paste in today’s primary. Hall does no better against him than against Hayworth.)

There’s a broader picture here, too. Pollster Tom Jensen elaborates:

[I]ntensity isn’t really the issue. We’re finding an electorate in NY-19 that supported Barack Obama by a point, not much of a drop from his 3 point win there. … The problem in NY-19 is that Obama voters have soured on him to a much greater extent than they have nationally. Only 75% of his supporters still approve of the job he’s doing and his loss of support is rubbing off on Hall. With the Obama voters who now disapprove of or are ambivalent toward him Nan Hayworth has a 56-28 lead. Nationally our last poll still found 86% of Obama voters approving of him so this is an unusually disenchanted district.

If we’re lucky, then this might be another way in which New York’s 19th CD differs from others – namely, the fact that Obama is doing 10 points worse here among his own voters than he is nationally. Still, while things look tough for Hall right now, he does have some things going for him. For one, the Democrats at the top of the ballot in NY look set to dominate. For another, he’ll also have help from the DCCC (which still, thankfully, has more cash than the NRCC) – though advertising dollars won’t go as far on NYC’s super-expensive TV stations. And he may yet turn in a strong fundraising quarter.

Obviously, this is just one survey, but be aware that Hall trailed in his own internal polling in 2006 all the way until the election. Those polls nonetheless portended trouble for incumbent Sue Kelly, whom Hall knocked off by a 51-49 margin. If this poll is accurate, then, John Hall also has a very tough row to hoe – and so, it would seem, do Dems in similar districts around the country.

Primary Election Preview

Although the people of Hawaii would beg to differ with my characterization (their turn is Saturday), this is the last big night of primaries for the cycle.

• DE-Sen (R): Mike Castle would unquestionably be the strongest candidate the GOP could put up for the seat being vacated by appointed placeholder Ted Kaufman, but since when has that stopped the GOP? Castle is facing a surging teabagger, Christine O’Donnell, who’s received plenty of assistance from the Tea Party Express (or as James Hell would say, a quarter million dead presidents worth) and the Grizzly Momma herself. O’Donnell has plenty of baggage from her run against Joe Biden in 2008, but yesterday’s PPP poll has cat fud lovers salivating, showing a narrow 47-44 advantage for none other than O’Donnell. We can’t help but pull for an O’Donnell victory, which would singlehandedly tilt this race significantly in Team Blue’s favor. (JMD)

• DE-AL (R): True SSPers will never pass up a race that has high egg-on-NRCC’s-face potential (or EoNRCCFP, if you will), something we might very well find here tonight. Two businesspeople – Michele Rollins and Glen Urquhart – face off, though Rollins has the backing of the state GOP; she’s technically more moderate than the full-fleged ‘bagger Urquhart. Urquhart had a 12-point lead in the last PPP poll of the race (which, of course, also indicated a very conservative primary electorate inclined to chuck Mike Castle). Both are on the air, and have had the requisite funds with which to do so ($433k spent by Rollins, $514k by Urquhart). It’s hard to decide who to root for here – let’s keep our mojo for the race one up on the ballot. (JMD)

• DC-Mayor (D): Incumbent Adrian Fenty hasn’t been afraid to enact controversial policies since taking office in 2007. Most notable has been his support for his controversial Chancellor of Schools appointment, Michelle Rhee. Fenty’s unpopularity has been seized by City Council Chairman Vincent Gray, opening up a divide between the newer transplants and long-time residents, who seem to prefer Fenty and Gray, respectively. The Washington Post has endorsed Fenty, as has the more local Washington City Paper …which took the opportunity to call Fenty “the jerk that D.C. needs.” Regardless, Gray has led in recent polling, with leads ranging from 7 points in a Clarus poll to 17 points in a recent WaPo poll. Given that, Gray should be favored tonight; it goes without saying that tonight’s winner will be the prohibitive favorite in this overwhelmingly Democratic city. (JMD)

• MA-09 (D): Labor activist Mac D’Alessandro has run an aggressive campaign against conservative Dem Stephen Lynch, who earned lifetime douchebag status by infamously switching from “yes” to “no” on the healthcare reform bill, in this South Boston-based district. D’Alessandro has enjoyed $250K in expenditures on his behalf from the SEIU (his former organization), and benefited from a late surge in campaign funds, but has still been badly out-raised by Lynch. (JL)

• MA-10 (D/R): Fortunately, the Dem primary to replace outgoing Dem Rep. Bill Delahunt has been relatively calm. State Sen. Robert O’Leary and Norfolk DA William Keating are the players here, but it’s been hard to get a read on who has the upper hand. O’Leary released an internal poll in early August claiming a 6-point lead, while Keating enjoyed some late-breaking positive press from chasing down a purse snatcher over the weekend. Your guess is as good as mine!

Republicans hope to seriously contest this seat in November, but both their candidates – state Rep. Jeff Perry and ex-Treasurer Joe Malone – have significant baggage: Malone for several of his staffers stealing nearly $10 million from the Treasurer’s office under his watch in the ’90s, and Perry for his oversight of a police officer under his command who conducted illegal strip-searches of teenage girls while Perry was a police sergeant in the early 1990s. (JL)

• MD-Gov (R): Former Governor Robert Ehrlich – who spent four years in office constantly clashing with the Democratic-controlled state legislature before his defeat by then Baltimore Mayor Martin O’Malley – is attempting a comeback. He faces a primary challenger from the Palin-endorsed businessman, Brian Murphy. Unlike Joe Miller in Alaska or Christine O’Donnell in Delaware, Murphy’s continued to struggle in the fundraising department, and the Tea Party Express has yet to come bail him out. Palin’s endorsement, however, has allowed Ehrlich to portray himself as – shockingly – a moderate, something he was far from while in office. Ehrlich’s expected to win, but a weak showing could presage some conservative discontent with him…which may bode well for O’Malley in November. (JMD)

• MD-01 (R): Suburban Baltimore state Senator Andy Harris – who teabagged then-Rep. Wayne Gilchrist before teabagging was popular and who we can thank for incumbent Dem. Frank Kratovil – is back for a rematch, but only if he can get past self-funding businessman Rob Fisher. The traditional divides are here again, with Harris being from NOT the Eastern Shore and Fisher being from the one area that could qualify as a population center, Salisbury. Neither candidate has been short on resources, with Harris having spent $664k and Fisher having spent $425k. Gilchrist, one of the last moderate GOPers in the House, has gone ahead and endorsed Fisher; Kratovil, of course, would prefer to face the poor ideological and geographic fit that is Harris. (JMD)

• MD-04 (D): Incumbent Donna Edwards did us all a huge favor by ridding us of the incredibly douchey Albert Wynn in the primary in 2008 – Wynn soon proved his douchebaggery by taking his marbles and going home early, forcing the state of Maryland to outlay for a special election. Soon after Edwards took office though, various state and local officials began rumblings about a primary challenge, usually with some variation on her being too liberal …for an 85% Obama district. The only one who ultimately took the plunge was State Delegate Herman Taylor, who represents a section of upcounty Montgomery. It’s unclear how much traction Taylor’s been able to get, but his measly $60k raised total isn’t the best sign for him. Two other perennial candidates round out this field. (JMD)

• NH-Sen (R): For a while, it looked like New Hampshire AG Kelly Ayotte’s chief competition would come from her left in the form of pro-choice businessman Bill Binnie. However, judging by the most recent polls, Binnie’s failure to gain any traction proves that running as a moderate within the modern Republican party is, in the words of one Edward M. Rooney, buying yourself a first-class ticket to nowhere. Instead, Ayotte appears to be subject to a credible late surge by the superbly-named attorney Ovide Lamontagne. Lamontagne is a favorite of movement conservatives but one who failed to attract the support of the scalp-collecting insurgents at the Tea Party Express. The two most recent polls have shown Ovide making a dramatic late run, but still coming up a few points short: Magellan has Ayotte up by 4, while PPP gave Ayotte a 7-point lead. National movement support never quite gelled consistently for Lamontagne, as he could only muster the backing of Laura Ingraham to match Sarah Palin’s full-throated Ayotte endorsement. Lamontagne is no stranger to upsets, though – he famously rocked the establishment in 1996 by winning the gubernatorial nomination that year. (JL)

• NH-01 (R): Manchester Mayor Frank Guinta, the early front-runner for the GOP nod to take on sophomore Dem Rep. Carol Shea-Porter, stumbled out of the gate with tepid early fundraising and reports of a bar fight dogging him in the press. A bunch of rich businessman sensed an opportunity and jumped into the ring, including Richard Ashooh, Bob Bestani, and Sean Mahoney. Mahoney, who’s pumped $900K of his own money into the race, seems to be the candidate to watch (the New Hampshire Democratic Party has even put out negative mailers against him). Guinta’s been dogged by even more bad press lately (including criticism from ex-Rep. Jeb Bradley over some weird financial irregularities), but it might be a mistake to count the teabaggish mayor out. (JL)

• NH-02 (D/R): Progressive fave Ann McLane Kuster is kicking ass in money and polls over the Joe Lieberman-associated Katrina Swett for the Dem nod to replace Paul Hodes in the House. For the GOP, ex-Rep. Charlie Bass appears in control against radio personality and proto-teabagger Jen Horn (whom Hodes clobbered in 2008), though Bass actually felt compelled to hit the airwaves earlier this month. A Horn upset here is probably be too much to hope for, but one can always dream. (JL)

• NY-Sen (R): Despite recruitment efforts by everyone from Karl Rove to Michael Bloomberg, the trio of contenders who emerged to challenge appointed Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand is decidedly lacking in stature. The state GOP put two men on the ballot at their convention: David Malpass, a former Reagan and Bush I advisor – and also the (clearly former) Chief Economist at Bear Stearns, and Bruce Blakeman, a one-time Port Authority commissioner (i.e., friend of George Pataki’s) and failed candidate for Comptroller in 1998. But as irony would have it, the one guy who had to petition to get on the ballot, two-term Westchester ex-Rep. Joe DioGuardi (and father of former American Idol judge Kara), has consistently led in the polls. At least half of the electorate was still undecided even in the most recent surveys, though, so this race is potentially up for grabs. Malpass has spent $2.5 million of his own money, so he’s probably the biggest threat to DioGuardi, who’s tossed in a million.

BTW, believe it or not, but there’s also a Republican primary for the privilege of taking on Chuck Schumer, too. Political consultant Jay Townsend has had narrow leads (with tons undecided) over former CIA officer Gary Bernsten. (D)

• NY-Gov (R): The most-touted Republican to enter the New York gubernatorial race wasn’t even a Republican – and that was the problem. The state GOP managed to recruit obnoxious anti-immigrant Suffolk County Executive Steve Levy, but Levy couldn’t formally complete a party switch in time, and failed to meet a special 50% threshold (normally it takes just 25%) to get on the ballot at the Republican convention. That left the GOP with ex-Rep. (and 2000 Hillary Clinton victim) Rick Lazio, who presumably thought he could sleepwalk his way to the nomination. But wealthy businessman Carl Paladino – one of the most revolting human beings alive today in the Empire State (click here – NSFW) – jumped into the game, spending at least $2.5 million so far and claiming he’d spend four times that. Polling has showed Paladino gaining on Lazio, and the most recent survey (by Siena – PDF) actually had them tied in the low 40s. The winner gets to take on AG Andrew Cuomo and his (at least) $24 million warchest. (D)

• NY-01 (R): What a hot mess. The GOP looked like it scored a strong recruit in wealthy businessman (what else is new?) Randy Altschuler, who has spent $2 million of his own money to date. He’s had to spend so much so early, though, because he most definitely did not clear the field. Former SEC prosecutor George Demos also entered the race, and has raised half a million bucks. That might ordinarily seem respectable, except for the fact that another guy also got in: Chris Cox, grandson of none other than Dick Nixon and son of the state party chair, Ed Cox. Cox has self-funded a million bucks so far, and boy has this three-way gotten nasty. The round-robin of attacks is too extensive to elucidate here, but rest assured that the CFQ (Cat Fud Quotient) is high indeed. Altschuler previously snagged the Conservative Party ballot line, so Rep. Tim Bishop (who has already benefitted from the flying fur) could catch a real break if Cox (or Demos) pulled out the GOP nod. (D)

• NY-10 (D): Ed Towns is a bad congressman. Ed Towns should not be in Congress. Ed Towns, sadly, is very likely to stay in Congress. He’s facing a rematch from former Real World star Kevin Powell, a weak candidate with baggage of his own who hasn’t raised much and got killed in 2008. Towns has taken no chances, though, once again spending well over a million bucks on his re-election campaign. (D)

• NY-13 (R): I’ll be honest – Staten Island Republican shenanigans baffle the fuck out of me. For reasons that have never been clear to me, they settled on lawyer Michael Allegretti as their preferred candidate (well, after trying to nominate disgraced ex-Rep. Vito Fossella for his old seat) – who also owns a share of the family business, Bayside Fuel and Oil, which just happened to employ a longtime Gambino family lieutenant back in the day. Most amusingly of all, Allegretti’s opponent Mike Grimm served on the FBI squad which was responsible for investigating the mob in the 90s – including the Bayside Fuel deal. Grimm’s profile (9/11 first responder) helped endear him to national Republican figures like Rudy Giuliani and John McCain, while the locals pretty much all cottoned to Allegretti. The race has been fiercely negative, with Grimm securing the Conservative Party line and Allegretti attacking Grimm for apparently not having a job –   and for never having voted in a GOP primary. (D)

• NY-14 (D): Hedge fund attorney and Hillary Clinton fundraiser Reshma Saujani appeared out of nowhere earlier this year to challenge Rep. Carolyn Maloney, a congresswoman whose record few had ever complained about. Saujani has pulled in an impressive $1.4 million, largely drawing on Wall Street and the Indian-American community. Maloney, though, has outspent her challenger almost two-to-one and still has $2 million on hand, about ten times what Saujani has left in the bank. Saujani has been most notable for her desire to be kinder to the financial titans who ruined our economy – a message which perhaps might resonate in the pre-war buildings along Park and Fifth Avenues. But the 14th District, which stretches from the Lower East Side to Astoria in Queens, is more diverse than you might think. With any luck, Saujani, who has run a nasty campaign, will get crushed and slink away, though she’s already promised to run again in 2012 if she loses. However, we haven’t seen any polls since a long-ago Maloney internal (which showed her crushing). (D)

• NY-15 (D): Trillion-term Rep. Charlie Rangel, the Warhorse of Ways & Means, has been laid very, very low by a slew of ethical misconduct allegations over the last few years, culminating in formal charges by the House Ethics Committee earlier this summer. For the most part, though, the political establishment has either stuck with Rangel or avoided taking sides, so his only primary opposition is fairly weak-sauce – and divided. Arrayed against Rangel are former aide Vincent Morgan, Assemblyman Adam Clayton Powell IV, and activist Jonathan Tasini. None have raised much money, and the most prominent among them, Powell, not only has some baggage but also got crushed in a prior primary challenge against Rangel back in 1994. Despite the quality of the field, Rangel has managed to spend $3.5 million out of his campaign account this cycle – though half of that has been on legal fees. (D)

• NY-23 (R): Another race with a tremendous Cat Fud Quotient. Teabaggers still love them some Doug Hoffman, who blew the special election against Rep. Bill Owens last November. But the creepy Hoffman has raised poorly since the special and has just $150K left. Meanwhile, Republicans eager for a fresh start have rallied around investment banker Matt Doheny, who has given his campaign $1 million and raised another $850K. The good news is that Hoffman has once again secured the Conservative line, while Doheny has scored a spot on the Independence Party ticket. So no matter what happens in the GOP primary (which, predictably, has been pretty negative), there will be a right-wing split in November for the second time in a row. The only poll of this race was a Hoffman internal from July showing him up by about thirty points. Still, I’m a little skeptical, as Hoffman’s surge last year was powered by a lot of outside money, which he hasn’t seen this time around. So this may well be anybody’s race. (D)

• NY-AG (D): Around a decade ago, a guy named Eliot Spitzer (whom you might know as an up-and-coming CNN talking head) started transforming the New York Attorney General’s Office into a serious activist powerhouse, investigating and pressuring all manner of corporate miscreants. While current AG Andrew Cuomo’s public approach has differed from his predecessor’s, he’s continued the pattern of going after big fish – and, like Spitzer before him, he’s using the post to seek the governor’s mansion, so this unusually potent state office is one worth keeping an eye one. The apparent front-runner is state Sen. Eric Schneiderman, who has racked up a broad array of establishment support – and consequently faced a pile-on by his opponents at a recent debate. His closest rival is probably Nassau County DA Kathleen Rice, a law-n-order suburban conservative who never voted until age 37 (in 2002). Rounding out the field are Assemblyman Richard Brodsky of Westchester, former state Insurance Commissioner Eric Dinallo, and former federal prosecutor and wealthy trial attorney Sean Coffey. The winner will face Staten Island DA Dan Donovan in the fall. (D)

• RI-01 (D): House seats in blue Rhode Island can be a lifetime sinecure if so desired, so in the rare instances they’re open, expect a free-for-all to get in. When Patrick Kennedy announced his retirement, Providence mayor David Cicilline (who’d previously declined a widely-expected gubernatorial bid) jumped in and quickly dominated the fundraising scene. A month-old Brown University poll shows former state party chair William Lynch as his closest competition, with Cicilline up 32-15. However, the race’s third wheel, wealthy businessman Anthony Gemma has hit Cicilline hard with a very negative TV blitz, while the race’s fourth wheel, state Rep. David Segal, is relying on a grassroots push from unions, so they may be in stronger position now than when that poll was taken. The winner faces Republican state Rep. John Loughlin, who faces a steep climb in this D+13 district but can exploit the harsh Dem primary as well having an open seat in this kind of climate. If Cicilline wins, he’ll be the third openly-LGBT member of Congress. (C)

• RI-02 (D): Sometimes a House seat in Rhode Island is so tempting that a Dem has to go for it even when it it’s not open. That’s what former state Rep. Betsy Dennigan is doing, challenging entrenched Rep. Jim Langevin. In an interesting choice, Dennigan isn’t making any hay out of the abortion issue, which was at issue in several other previous primary challenges to the pro-life Langevin, who hews to the party line on most other issues. Without that on the table, don’t expect much fireworks here: the month-old Brown University poll finds Langevin leading 55-12. (C)

• WI-Sen (R): Ron Johnson, wealthy owner of a plastics manufacturing concern thanks to a fair amount of help from that government he hates so much, is that rare breed of Republican: one who’s both the establishment’s preferred choice (after Tommy Thompson didn’t get in, they decided to go the self-funder route) and the fave of the teabaggers (complete with Jim DeMint’s seal of approval). Johnson has been spending heavily on advertising (although with an eye toward the general), so there’s likely to be little drama here: the only recent poll of the race comes from PPP in early July, who found Johnson leading little-known Dave Westlake 49-11. Businessman Terence Wall, who’d been Johnson’s main rival until he dropped out in a huff after the state convention, has made some noises about a late-breaking write-in bid, but is unlikely to be much of a factor either. (C)

• WI-Gov (R): This was initially touted as a bout between two local Republican heavyweights (or at least welterweights): Milwaukee Co. Executive Scott Walker, and ex-Rep. Mark Neumann, attempting a return to politics after losing a close 1998 Senate election to Russ Feingold. Neumann has the added advantage of being a wealthy real estate developer, but for whatever reason — probably the “who’s that?” factor that sets in after twelve years out of the spotlight — Neumann hasn’t gotten much traction. The most recent poll, from PPP in early July, gave Walker (head of the state’s most populous county) a 58-19 edge. Certain Dem nominee Tom Barrett has usually polled better against Neumann than Walker, so there’s somebody to root for. (C)

• WI-07 (R): Everyone assumes that hunky Ashland County DA/ex-reality star/ex-timber sports competitor Sean Duffy is well on his way to facing off against Democratic state Sen. Julie Lassa for the open seat left behind by David Obey in this D+3 district. Not so fast, there… as Mr. GOP Establishment, he still has to run the gauntlet of the inevitable teabagger challenge. He faces off against Obey’s 2008 challenger, Dan Mielke. (C)

• WI-08 (R): For such a potentially consequential general election, we have surprisingly little intelligence about the GOP primary to pick someone to go up against vulnerable sophomore Rep. Steve Kagen. There seem to be at least five viable candidates here; the one who’s raised by far the most and that the NRCC seems to be favoring, though, is the one who’s never held elective office: contractor Reid Ribble. State Rep. Roger Roth may have an inherited name rec advantage (he’s related to the area’s former Rep., Toby Roth), and former state Rep. Terri McCormick seems to be the fave among the social conservatives, so either of them may well be in position to win as well. The field is rounded out by Door County Supervisor and NHL star Marc Savard, and Brown County Supervisor and 50s crooner Andy Williams. (C)

Closing times (all Eastern time):

NH – 7pm (8pm local option)

DE – 8pm

DC – 8pm

MD – 8pm

MA – 8pm

NY – 9pm

RI – 9pm

WI – 9pm