October 2010 – Page 11 – Swing State Project

StephenCLE’s Senate/Governor Rankings – October 14

Welcome to StephenCLE’s Senate & Governor Rankings for October 14:

The Senate picture has stabilized to a degree, but the prospects still look grim here for Team Blue. Team Red has a strong lead in many seats that are currently democratic. Because the democrats have improved in several races close to the borderline, it’s now going to be difficult for the Republicans to take over the Senate outright, but a tie at 50-50 is very feasible. I’ve heard the words “Pacific Firewall” used to describe the democrats’ last line of defense, and it is true, as Patty Murray and Barbara Boxer’s seats in Washington and California, either one of which could be the mystical 10th seat to flip control, are both clearly leaning democratic right now. The open seat in Connecticut now appears to be firmly out of reach.

First off, to the map:

Senate Math:

Current Senate – 59 Democrats, 41 Republicans

New Senate – 52 Democrats, 48 Republicans

Swing – Republicans +7

Pickups (listed in order of likelihood)

Dem pickups – none

Rep pickups – North Dakota, Arkansas, Indiana, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Colorado, West Virginia,

Ratings Commentary:

At this point, I think we can say that the democrats are unlikely to pick up any republican controlled seats. The two seats that appeared to be the best opportunities for most of the year, Ohio and Missouri, have drifted away from the democrats. New Hampshire is still somewhat competitive, as is Kentucky, and something tells me that North Carolina might not be totally out of the woods either because of Burr’s crappy favorables, but it’s a longshot that any seats go from red to blue right now. That means it’s simply a matter of counting up the seats that will go from blue to red. Here are those seats.

1.North Dakota – This one’s a lock.

2.Arkansas – This seat is virtually gone as well. Blanche had a poll showing her down just 9 about a week ago, but if your internals have you down almost double digits…

3.Indiana – I really thought this one would be more competitive by now, but Ellsworth has been a major disappointment and Coats is getting a pass because of the environment.

4.Wisconsin – This seat has leaped up to fourth on the list, as Feingold was caught totally napping, and Ron Johnson now appears likely to win this seat. There’s still time left, but virtually everybody has an opinion of Feingold, so it’s not going to be easy to turn around. His vote against Financial Regulation was a killer in my opinion.

5.Pennsylvania – This race is showing signs of tightening, as internal polling put Sestak ahead last week, and some other empirical evidence, such as the NRSC jumping in with an ad buy today, suggests that this race has tightened to under 5 points. Sestak still has work to do here, but as a newcomer with a track record of closing strong, this one could be interesting.

6.Colorado – This race is still close as well. Buck leads in most polls, but Bennet had several put him ahead last week. I still think Buck is going to win it barring any mistakes down the stretch, but Bennet has himself in decent position to survive.

7.West Virginia – Joe Manchin would be winning big in just about any other cycle, but hatred of Obama and the national democrats is running so high in WV that John Raese is either barely ahead or tied in most polling. This could go either way. I could see a hidden democratic vote coming out in the end a la the PA-12 special last year, or Raese gaining the support of conservative democrats and putting it away. Tough call here. Right now, this one’s barely red because of the partisan lean of WV in national elections

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8.Illinois – This begins the start of the blue column, and it’s a cliffhanger right now between Giannoulias and Kirk. What we’re seeing in IL right now is a gradual “coming home” of Democrats to the democratic candidates, and if this continues, Giannoulias should win this one because of IL’s partisan lean. It’s going to be a sloggy mess the rest of the way though.

9.Nevada – This one is almost interchangeable with Illinois. Polling shows a virtual toss-up here between Harry Reid and Sharron Angle. It’s a battle of the unfavorable, and while undecideds supposedly break for the challenger, polling has had a republican bias in Nevada the last few cycles. GOTV might decide this one, and because of that, my money is on Reid to survive.

10.Washington – This seat is basically the seat of Rassmussen driving a narrative. He’s really the only pollster that has ever had Rossi ahead of Murray, and now the polling average has Murray up by 6-7 points. It’s very hard for me to see Murray losing to an already 2-time statewide loser that hasn’t put up better than 48% in any poll I’ve seen this cycle.

11.California – California appears to be moving away from most republican candidates right now. Fiorina would really need a strong finish and probably a gaffe from Boxer to come back and win.

12.Connecticut – This is the last seat, theoretically, that Team Red has a shot at, but again, with McMahon’s favorables in the crapper, you’d need a gaffe or two from Blumenthal to put this race back into the competitive zone.

2010 Senate Big Board (as of October 13)

Solid Dem – 6 seats

Hawaii (Inouye)

Maryland (Mikulski)

New York (Schumer)

New York (Gillibrand)

Oregon (Wyden)

Vermont (Leahy)

Likely Dem – 2 seats

Connecticut (Blumenthal)

Delaware (Open)

Lean Dem – 2 seats

California (Boxer)

Washington (Murray)

Toss Up – 5 seats

Nevada (Reid)

Colorado (Open)

Illinois (Open)

Pennsylvania (Open)

West Virginia (Manchin)

Lean Rep – 5 seats

Kentucky (Open)

Missouri (Open)

New Hampshire (Open)

North Carolina (Burr)

Wisconsin (Feingold)

Likely Rep – 7 seats

Alaska (Open)

Georgia (Isakson)

Arkansas (Lincoln)

Florida (Open)

Indiana (Open)

Louisiana (Vitter)

Ohio (Open)

Solid Rep – 10 seats

Arizona (McCain)

Alabama (Shelby)

Idaho (Crapo)

Iowa (Grassley)

Kansas (Open)

North Dakota (Open)

Oklahoma (Coburn)

South Carolina (Demint)

South Dakota (Thune)

Utah (Open)

On the gubernatorial side of things, fortunes actually appear to be improving for Team Blue, and in several key states as far as redistricting is concerned. The overall picture appears to be that of the democrats taking over blue state governorships, republicans the red state governorships, and the GOP getting some of the swing state ones too.

Current Governors – 26 democrats, 24 republicans

New Governors – 21 democrats, 29 republicans

Swing – Republicans +5

Pickups (listed in order of likelihood)

Dem Pickups – Rhode Island, Connecticut, Minnesota, Hawaii, California, Florida, Vermont

Rep Pickups – Wyoming, Kansas, Tennessee, Oklahoma, Iowa, Alaska, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, New Mexico, Illinois, Ohio

The Map:

Most of the governor races are clear-cut, with very few real toss-ups on the board. Probably the closest races overall are two races that lean slightly GOP, Illinois and Ohio. In Illinois, Pat Quinn has rallied and is trailing Bill Brady by only a few points, in a state in which it’s hard to imagine many undecideds going for the extremely conservative Brady. A victory for Quinn would give democrats control of the redistricting trifecta in Illinois, but because of how concentrated the democratic vote is there, I’m not sure how valuable that would be. It might be possible to eliminate Biggert & Roskam though. Ohio is another close race as Ted Strickland has closed to within a few points of John Kasich, and again here, it appears that most of the remaining undecideds are people that supported the democrats in 2006 and 2008. This race is big as a victory for Strickland (or a hold of the Ohio House) would undo the republican gerrymander of the state’s congressional seats.

One democratic-leaning seat that is somewhat in danger still is California, where Jerry Brown currently leads but is facing a bit of bad publicity at the moment. A victory would give the democrats the trifecta here, although that could be nullified by the passage of a fair districts initiative also on the ballot. Florida is another state in which the democrat is leading and a lot is on the line in terms of redistricting. Florida has a hideous republican gerrymander, and an Alex Sink victory would do away with that. There is a fair districts initiative on the ballot here too, but unlike in California, it looks likely to fail, making it imperative that Sink get the win over corrupt Rick Scott.

Pennsylvania and Texas are two other states in which big state gerrymandering looms large, but in both of these states it appears that the GOP is on their way to a victory. Pennsylvania could still be saved with a retention of the Pennsylvania House, while the democrats would have to take over the Texas House to stave off a gerrymander, which is much less likely than defeating Rick Perry is.

2010 Governors Big Board (as of October 13)

Solid Dem – 4 seats

Arkansas

New Hampshire

New York

Rhode Island

Likely Dem – 2 seats

Colorado

Connecticut

Lean Dem – 5 seats

California

Hawaii

Maryland

Massachusetts

Minnesota

Toss Up – 7 seats

Florida

Illinois

Maine

New Mexico

Ohio

Oregon

Vermont

Lean Rep – 5 seats

Georgia

Pennsylvania

South Carolina

Texas

Wisconsin

Likely Rep – 5 seats

Alaska

Arizona

Iowa

Michigan

Nevada

Solid Rep – 9 seats

Alabama

Idaho

Kansas

Nebraska

Oklahoma

South Dakota

Tennessee

Utah

Wyoming

SSP Daily Digest: 10/14 (Morning Edition)

What would you do without the Daily Digests?

MO-Sen: Republican media trackers tell Politico that the DSCC has cancelled $1.3 million worth of ad buys in Kansas City and St. Louis for the final week before the election. The DS tried to push back, saying that “decisions are made on a week-to-week basis,” but as Swingnuts well know, cancelling early reservations now subjects you to forfeiting deposits – and means you have to pay higher rates if you decide to go back in later. In other words, late cancellations are not made lightly.

WV-Sen: John Raese has one simple request. And that is to have sharks with frickin’ laser beams attached to their heads!

NV-Sen: So maybe some of that cash earmarked for Missouri is going to Nevada instead. On the heels of Sharron Angle’s eye-bursting $14 million haul, the DSCC is making its first ad reservations in the Silver State, apparently for a million bucks a week.

GA-Gov: Wow, Nathan Deal really is the epitome of the corrupt scumbag who thinks the purposes of getting elected to public office is to use his position for personal gain. As the AP explains: “While in Congress, Republican Nathan Deal lobbied Georgia’s attorney general and top state environmental officials to allow the development of a landfill that he and his business partner wanted next to their auto salvage yard….” Note that though this involves Deal’s auto salvage business, this is actually a different scandal from the one which inspired him to resign from Congress (there, he had lobbied the state from his perch in the House to preserve a questionable vehicle inspection program from which he profited immensely).

NY-Gov: For the trouble of offering a half-assed, bullshit, “I’m sorry if you were offended” non-apology, Carl Paladino has now lost the backing of the right-wing rabbi, Yehuda Levin, who helped pen the anti-gay speech which got Paladino into such hot water to begin with.

Relatedly, a truly awesome catch by Politico’s Maggie Haberman: She digs waaay deep to link a story at the Orthodox-oriented news blog Voz Iz Neias (Yiddish for “What’s News?”) about Paladino’s flubbed outreach in the Orthodox community. Though it’s getting far less play than his homophobic outburst, Paladino also attacked a bunch of big-time rebbes (Hasidic leaders) for supposedly being suckered into going soft on the libruhl Andrew Cuomo (who had also done the ritual meet-and-greets in Hasidic communities). Several prominent rabbis are now rebuking Paladino for waltzing on to their turf and making such presumptuous accusations against some of their own. So not only did Paladino piss off half the state thanks to this trip, he pissed off the very people he was trying to win over! In a word: fail.

CA-03: There aren’t a whole lot of bright spots these days, but one of them is definitely Dan Lungren. The former state AG managed to win in 2008 against a badly underfunded opponent with less than 50% of the vote, and has been getting his ass kicked in fundraising literally every quarter this cycle by Ami Bera. So with his back against the wall, Karl Rove is coming to the rescue. American Crossroads/Crossroads GPS is launching ads in the district on Friday, but NWOTSOTB as yet.

CA-45: You know I’m a ratfucking fetishist, so of course it warms my heart to hear that Dem Steve Pougnet is doing his best to prop up teabagger Bill Lussenheide. He’s targeting Republicans with robocalls that say Lussenheide is the “true conservative” – but he’s also sending out mailers to the same households describing him as “extreme” and “dangerous” while calling Rep. Mary Bono Mack a “raging liberal.” I imagine the idea is that what’s “extreme” and “dangerous” to normal people is actually appealing to crazies. I also love the fact that Bono Mack’s people whined that this was a “dirty trick” – just shows they are a bunch of weenies who don’t know how to fight.

LA-02: Man, it seems like most pols in Louisiana care about party loyalty as much as the writers of LOST cared about not pissing off their fans after six fucking years of slavishly watching that goddamn… uh, where was I? Oh yeah, state Rep. Juan LaFonta, who got pasted in the Democratic primary by Cedric Richmond, has decided to endorse Republican Rep. Joe Cao for re-election. This does not seem like the winning move to me. (And screw you, J. J. Abrams!)

OH-09: This comment has the flavor of Star Trek nerds debating whether Captain Picard ever wore the Federation dress uniform while on the bridge of the Enterprise D during season 4… only, except, you know, this guy is actually trying to be serious. Rich Iott’s spokesbot pleaded with Politico to understand that no, it was an SS uniform, not a NAZI uniform! I’m sure that will please John Boehner, who, as it turns out, gave $5,000 to Iott last month. Think he wants his Reichsmarks back?

PA-03: Paging Mark Twain… Mark Twain to the white courtesy phone. The AFSCME evidently thinks that rumors of Kathy Dahlkemper’s demise are at least somewhat exaggerated, since they’re dropping $350K on ads on her behalf. Triage is a tricky business.

WI-08: Aaron Blake tweets that the DCCC is “pulling out” of the 8th CD, but as is often the case, the picture is more nuanced. First off, AFSCME just dropped $750K here (to which Blake alludes). Secondly, Kagen is personally wealthy. In fact, in 2008, he was the 28th-richest member of the House, with a net worth of anywhere between $7 and $20 million. Hopefully his investments haven’t taken too bad of hit the last couple of years and he can still afford to spend large (he gave his campaign almost $900K last cycle).

SSP TV:

GA-08: Jim Marshall’s anti-Pelosi ad actually has hippies in it – for reals
NY-20: Fuck yes – Scott Murphy’s latest lacerates Chris Gibson for supporting repeal of the healthcare reform bill. Murphy, like Earl Pomeroy, knows the only way to win is to go loud and proud
TN-04: Lincoln Davis lacerates Scott DesJarlais for reportedly threatening his ex-wife with a gun – and threatening to kill himself. Stories like this were a big reason why Don Sherwood and Randy Kuhl both lost
ID-01: On behalf of Walt Minnick, the mother of a woman murdered by her abuser hits Raul Labrador for his failure to support laws that would protect women in abusive relationships
MA-06: Republican Bill Hudak hits Rep. John Tierney on a story we’ve been somewhat remiss in covering here: namely, his wife’s recent guilty plea for tax fraud. By referring to “Tierney’s family,” the ad makes it sound like Tierney himself was involved, but Hudak gets away with this legerdemain because the wife’s brother (family by marriage, I suppose) was also involved. The ad is only running on cable (Hudak had less than $100K on hand at the end of August)

Independent Expenditures:

America’s Families First Action Fund: Sounds like a GOP group, but it’s actually Dem to the bone: $80K against David Schweikert (AZ-05); $403K against David Rivera (FL-25); $94K on mail against Bob Dold! (FL-25); $200K against Randy Hultgren (IL-14)
EMILY: $520K against Tom Ganley (OH-13); $212K against Cory Gardner (CO-04); $20K against Frank Guinta (NH-01)
NEA: $1.4 million against Ken Buck (CO-Sen); $306K against Harold Johnson (NC-08)
Realtors: $450K for Jim Gerlach (PA-06)
SEIU: $100K on radio ads for Cedric Richmond (LA-02); smaller amounts in MI-07 & IL-17
VoteVets: $325K cable buy against Pat Toomey (PA-Sen); $31K buy against Mike Fitzpatrick (PA-08); $296K for Harry Reid (NV-Sen)

Poll Roundup: 10/13

I’m your poll pusher. 19 new ones:

AZ-Sen: Behavior Research Center (10/1-10, likely voters):

Rodney Glassman (D): 22

John McCain (R-inc): 56

(MoE: ±4.7%)

DE-Sen: SurveyUSA for the University of Delaware Center for Political Communication (10/11-12, likely voters):

Chris Coons (D): 54

Christine O’Donnell (R): 33

Undecided: 9

(MoE: ±2.1%)

Opinion Research for CNN/Time (10/8-12, likely voters, 9/17-21 in parens):

Chris Coons (D): 57 (55)

Christine O’Donnell (R): 38 (39)

(MoE: ±3.5%)

FL-Sen: Quinnipiac (10/6-10, likely voters, 9/23-28 in parens):

Kendrick Meek (D): 22 (18)

Marco Rubio (R): 44 (46)

Charlie Crist (I): 30 (33)

(MoE: ±3%)

Susquehanna (10/6-10, likely voters, 9/2-7 in parens):

Kendrick Meek (D): 22 (23)

Marco Rubio (R): 45 (43)

Charlie Crist (I): 29 (29)

(MoE: ±2.9%)

NV-Sen: Suffolk (10/7-11, likely voters):

Harry Reid (D-inc): 45

Sharron Angle (R): 43

Scott Ashjian (T): 2

(MoE: ±4.4%)

PA-Sen: Bennett Petts and Normington for Joe Sestak (10/4-6, likely voters):

Joe Sestak (D): 45

Pat Toomey (R): 46

(MoE: ±3.5%)

WA-Sen: Opinion Research for CNN/Time (10/8-12, likely voters, 9/10-14 in parens):

Patty Murray (D-inc): 51 (53)

Dino Rossi (R): 43 (44)

(MoE: ±3.5%)

WI-Sen, WI-Gov: Opinion Research for CNN/Time (10/8-12, likely voters, 9/17-21 in parens):

Russ Feingold (D-inc): 44 (45)

Ron Johnson (R): 52 (41)

Tom Barrett (D): 44 (42)

Scott Walker (R): 52 (53)

(MoE: ±3.5%)

WV-Sen: Opinion Research for CNN/Time (10/8-12, likely voters):

Joe Manchin (D): 44

John Raese (R): 44

Jesse Johnson (MP): 5

(MoE: ±3.5%)

RI-Gov: Quest Research (10/4-6, likely voters, 9/15-17 in parens):

Frank Caprio (D): 37 (36)

Lincoln Chafee (I): 33 (24)

John Robitaille (R): 22 (13)

Ken Block (M): 2 (2)

(MoE: ±4.4%)

CA-11: Lake Research Partners for Jerry McNerney (9/21-25, likely voters):

Jerry McNerney (D-inc): 45

David Harmer (R): 35

David Christensen (AIP): 5

(MoE: ±4.4)

GA-02: Public Opinion Strategies for Mike Keown (9/27-28, likely voters, August in parens):

Sanford Bishop (D-inc): 47 (50)

Mike Keown (R): 46 (44)

(MoE: ±4.9%)

NJ-12: Monmouth University (10/9-12, likely voters):

Rush Holt! (D): 51

Scott Sipprelle (R): 46

(MoE: ±3.9%)

NY-01: Siena (10/6-11, likely voters):

Tim Bishop (D-inc): 51

Randy Altschuler (R): 39

(MoE: ±4%)

NY-19: Siena (10/5-10, likely voters):

John Hall (D-inc): 43

Nan Hayworth (R): 46

(MoE: ±4%)

NY-23: Siena (10/5-7, likely voters):

Bill Owens (D-inc): 42

Matt Doheny (R): 31

Doug Hoffman (C): 15

After Hoffman voters told he suspended campaign/endorsed Doheny:

Bill Owens (D-inc): 44

Matt Doheny (R): 39

Doug Hoffman (C): 1

(MoE: ±4%)

PA-11: Franklin & Marshall College for Times-Shamrock Newspapers (10/5-10, likely voters):

Paul Kanjorski (D-inc): 40

Lou Barletta (R): 47

(MoE: ±4.8%)

PA-12: Susquehanna for the Tribune-Review (10/9-10, likely voters):

Mark Critz (D-inc): 43

Tim Burns (R): 36

(MoE: ±4.9%)

FL-Gov: Sink Stops Leaking, Floats Back Up

Public Policy Polling (10/9-10, likely voters, 8/21-22 in parentheses):

Alex Sink (D): 46 (36)

Rick Scott (R): 41 (30)

Undecided: 14 (22)

(MoE: ±4.6%)

How I feel about this race seems to change weekly, if not daily… and that seems largely dependent on which particular pollsters (and how they model the electorate) are offering results that week, and who’s dominating the advertising tempo that week. That seems to be the only explanation for how last week Rick Scott seemed to be taking over, but now (especially with Sink’s damning 2-minute ad about Scott’s Medicare fraud running now) — between a 4-point Mason-Dixon lead, a 1-point deficit in Quinnipiac (down from a big Scott lead in their first post-LV-switch poll), and even a 3-point ballgame in Rasmussen this week — the needle seems to be swinging back to Alex Sink.

As always, the picture of the trendlines (here dialed up to more sensitivity) is worth a thousand words. Click here for trendlines (and dial it up to “more sensitivity” for full effect of the last few weeks).

As for PPP’s specific numbers, the gap is still about the same; their old post-primary numbers don’t add up to 100 because Bud Chiles was drawing 8 (which seems to have been equally allocated between Sink and Scott with his departure). Sink’s favorables are 44/38 compared with 33/52 for Scott; helping Scott, though, seems to be progress uniting Republicans behind him (he pulls 77% of GOPers, up from 57% post-primary, while Scott’s at 76% of Dems), and a decidedly Republican-leaning likely voter pool (the sample went 51-44 in favor of McCain in ’08).

AK-Sen: Miller Leads, But…

Public Policy Polling for Daily Kos (10/9-10, likely voters, no trendlines):

Scott McAdams (D): 26

Joe Miller (R): 35

Someone else: 35

Undecided: 5

(MoE: ±2.4%)

In looking at PPP’s poll released yesterday (on behalf of our Orange Overlords), let’s walk step-by-step through what they’re doing in this basically impossible-to-poll race. Their approach is fairly similar to what Ivan Moore did a few weeks ago: first run a heat without Lisa Murkowski. (The difference here is that PPP specifically ask “someone else,” while Moore only seemed to let people volunteer that on the first round.) With this approach, it’s a tie between Miller and “someone else.”

PPP then asked the “someone else” voters who they were planning to vote for: indie Tim Carter, indie Ted Gianoutsos, Libertarian Frederick Haase, write in Lisa Murkowski, or write in someone else? Murkowski won that round with 95%, with 2 going to Haase, 1 to Gianoutsos, 0 to Carter, and 2 to write in someone else. That was then imputed to find these results:

Scott McAdams (D): 26

Joe Miller (R): 35

Lisa Murkowski (WI): 33

Undecided: 4

(MoE: ±2.4%)

Miller leads narrowly, despite his atrocious 35/58 favorables among the general electorate – the worst PPP has found for a Republican senate candidate this year, including Christine O’Donnell. (Contrast that with 48/46 for Murkowski and 44/26 for McAdams, probably thanks to his cheerful ads.)

This contrasts a bit with Moore’s approach, which was to remind voters of Murkowski’s presence, ask all voters “stay the same” or “write in Murkowski,” and impute based on that, which seemed to yield a more pro-Murkowski result (44-36 in her favor). I don’t know which approach is the most optimal (maybe PPP’s, since it doesn’t prompt everyone that Murkowski’s in the race, only nudges them in that direction with “someone else” and the follow up question, which may more accurately reflect voting-booth dynamics where there’s no reminder about Murkowski), but at any rate, they’re both better than other polls which just list Murkowski with everyone else.

Ethan Berkowitz (D): 42

Sean Parnell (R-inc): 51

Undecided: 7

Harry Crawford (D): 36

Don Young (R-inc): 58

Undecided: 6

(MoE: ±2.4%)

PPP also looks at the much-less-complicated Governor and House races, and, as one would expect, finds the incumbent Republicans in command here, although Ethan Berkowitz still looks surprisingly lively in the gubernatorial race.

SSP Daily Digest: 10/13 (Afternoon Edition)

• AK-Sen: In the avalanche of various other acts of hypocrisy and self-dealing that have come out about Joe Miller in the last few weeks, somehow I missed this one: not only did he avail himself of low-income hunting and fishing licenses, but his family has received assistance from Medicaid and similar state-level Denali Kidcare. Somewhere, his most ardent supporters are hurling their copies of Atlas Shrugged into the fireplace in disgust, learning that their mighty Producer is nothing more than a parasite, weakly availing himself of every program under the sun designed to enslave man. (And somewhere, either heaven or Rick Barber’s fevered imagination, James Madison is hurling his copy of the Federalist Papers into the fireplace, upset that this ostensible patriot is availing himself of such a plainly unconstitutional program.)

• DE-Sen: I think this had been made pretty clear few weeks ago, but Mike Castle reiterated it in as official terms as possible on CNN yesterday: he’s not endorsing anybody in the Senate race.

• FL-Sen: Very-tanned centrist GOPer governors gotta stick together, and Arnold Schwarzenegger just gave his probably-not-worth-much backing to Charlie Crist yesterday. The Marco Rubio camp may have gotten the last laugh here, though:

“When it comes to inflicting ‘Collateral Damage’ on the economy, Charlie Crist and Arnold Schwarzenegger are definitely ‘Twins.’ Charlie’s flip-flops have made him a master at telling ‘True Lies.’ We all know the only thing Charlie cares about is the next election. But this year, Florida will take an ‘Eraser’ to ‘The Running Man.'” – Rubio campaign spokesman Alex Burgos, responding to Schwarzenegger’s endorsement of Crist.

• PA-Sen: I wouldn’t start popping the champagne cork (or even buy a bottle of champagne) yet, but the DSCC seems to be seeing some negative-ad-driven progress in Pennsylvania. They’ve released an internal poll, via Garin Hart Yang, that actually gives Joe Sestak the lead. He’s up 44-42 over Pat Toomey, in a poll taken Oct. 8-10. With leaners pushed, Sestak expands to a 47-44 lead. No public pollster has seen anything like that (at least yet).

• WA-Sen: If you’re wondering what’s up with the huge disparities in Washington Senate numbers between the live-caller and auto-dialed polls, you’re not alone. Nate Silver doesn’t exactly have answers, pointing to unique Washington variables that confound pollsters, like its (almost entirely) vote-by-mail status and its large number of cellphone-only users. But he does have some interesting charts showing that Rasmussen and SurveyUSA have consistently overestimated GOP performance all decade long in Washington (while, at the same time, Elway has overestimated Dem performance).

• WV-Sen: Hot on the heels of PPP’s poll showing Joe Manchin back in the lead, the DSCC is out with an internal poll showing similar numbers. The GQR poll from Oct. 7-12, the height of “hicky” mania, gives Manchin a 49-44 lead over John Raese, whose 40/38 faves lag Manchin’s 63/28.

• CA-Gov: All previous political self-funding records are quickly receding in Meg Whitman’s rearview mirror, as she just plowed another $20 million into her gubernatorial bid, bringing her all-cycle total to over $141 million.

• WV-Gov: I don’t know what West Virginians’ aversion to comprehensible succession laws is, but after emerging from the morass of how to replace Robert Byrd, now the legislature is grappling with what to do with the Governor position if Joe Manchin manages to win the Senate special election. Legislative lawyers say that unless the legislature takes some sort of action, Senate President Earl Ray Tomblin would take over as “acting governor” for the entire remainder of Manchin’s term, until the regularly scheduled Nov. 2012 election… but that there would be two elections that day, one for the full four years and one for the lame-duck period.

• FL-25: I look forward to seeing David Rivera’s explanation:

Over the past seven years, Republican state Rep. David Rivera repeatedly said in sworn documents that his main source of income, outside of his salary from the Legislature, came from consulting work he did for the U.S. Agency for International Development. But USAID has no record of ever hiring Rivera — now a candidate for Congress — or his company.

• KS-04: SurveyUSA has shown an unexpectedly close race (for an open seat in a dark-red district in this climate), with several polls in high single digits, so GOP nominee Mike Pompeo is offering some pushback with an internal from Cole Hargrave Snodgrass & Associates from Oct. 10-11. His poll gives him a 48-31 lead over Raj Goyle. (You may recall that this pollster works with the Club for Growth, and is responsible for highlights like this one. Senator Dick Zimmer vouches for their accuracy!)

• NY-24: Richard Hanna’s out with an internal poll, courtesy of McLaughlin (no dates given by Politico, and with a big fat MoE of 5.6%). Hanna leads, but only by 46-43. Considering that Hanna is trying to push back against not a Mike Arcuri internal but an honest-to-gosh public poll (from Siena) with an Arcuri lead of 8, that seems like kind of weak sauce.

• MN-06: Today’s fundraising highlight is that Michele Bachmann pulled in $5.4 million in the third quarter. Interestingly, it looks like she’ll report “only” $3.4 million cash on hand, suggesting a similar phenomenon as Sharron Angle (for whom there weren’t any CoH numbers at all), where there’s a lot of churn going on not just for a TV blitz but also for widespread nationwide direct-mail marketing, which is expensive. (Just ask Joe Cao.) While these numbers certainly don’t bode well as far as unseating Bachmann this year, the bright side is that’s money that low-information voters might otherwise have given to GOP House challengers in tight races who could have actually leveraged that money a lot more effectively.

• TX-27: Even if you’re a political junkie like us, yesterday’s internal poll was probably the first you’ve ever heard of Blake Farenthold. The DCCC fills in some blanks, suggesting that you’re probably not likely to hear too much about him in the future, either. He’s somehow sitting on a negative $5K in cash, and… I’m not quite sure how this happened, but he appears on the front of what appears to be some sort of local tea party-oriented publication, in pajamas, in the company of what appears to be some sort of sex-industry professional (and not as an example of what not to do, but apparently because said publication is endorsing him). Yeah, I’m just as confused as you; you’ll have to check out the link.

• WA-08: Ordinarily, we don’t report on newspaper endorsements, since they don’t seem to move many votes and are usually pretty predictable based on each paper’s e-board leanings. We’ll make an exception in this case, since Dave Reichert largely owes his continued existence to the Seattle Times, who’ve clung to him as, in their eyes, the last remaining exemplar of the old-style moderate Republicanism they fetishize. So it’s a strange and wondrous thing to see them turning their back on him in favor of Suzan DelBene.

• Blue Dogs: CQ has an interesting piece about the yawning leadership gap at the Blue Dogs, where two of its key members, John Tanner and Dennis Moore, are skedaddling. It cites a number of possible new heads (most notably Allen Boyd and Jim Matheson), but there’s a certain amount of cart-before-horse here, because the Blue Dogs are disproportionately in the crosshairs this cycle and it’s unclear how many of the key ones (Boyd, especially, as well as Stephanie Herseth Sandlin) will even be back.

• DLCC: The DLCC is out with its third and probably final installment in its “Essential Races” series, pointing you (and your contribution dollars) toward 15 more legislators in key races that might determine chamber control in some of the most important state legislatures.

• Money: More evidence that the advantage by the Democratic committees and individual members was pretty illusory, given the myriad ways (527s and 501(c)(4)s, oh my) that the wealthy have to plow nearly-unlimited money into political races: an alliance of groups (Karl Rove’s American Crossroads and Norm Coleman’s American Action Network, as well as a new one, Commission on Hope, Growth, and Opportunity) is planning a $50 million ad blitz focused on some relatively underserved House races. This includes IN-02, CO-07, and even Maurice Hinchey’s NY-22. (H/t Nathan Gonzales.)

• SSP TV:

• IL-Sen: Mark Kirk revisits the Broadway Bank yet again with his newest ad

• LA-Sen: A solid ad from Charlie Melancon, hitting David Vitter on outsourcing and cozying up to BP

• MO-Sen: Robin Carnahan tries some anti-Washington (including congressional pay raises) shots at Roy Blunt

• PA-Sen: VoteVets boosts Joe Sestak with a hit on Pat Toomey for voting against veterans’ benefits

• CT-Gov: The RGA has a boilerplate attack ad on Dan Malloy as tax-raising career politician

• HI-Gov: It’s not your imagination, this race is looking competitive, at least if the DGA is advertising here: they’re out with an anti-Duke Aiona ad

• IL-Gov: Pat Quinn’s new ad actually comes close to saying that Bill Brady will kill your dog if you vote for him.

• OH-Gov: Ted Strickland’s ad goes back to the basics: hitting John Kasich on his outsourcing Wall Street ways

• SC-Gov: The RGA is having to advertise and staff up in SC-Gov, probably much to their chagrin, as this looks like it’s turning into a real race: their new spot calls Vincent Sheheen liberal, morphs him into Obama, and does all the usual

• IL-17: The SEIU backs up one of labor’s biggest backers in the House, Phil Hare, with a 10-day buy for $317K in the Quad Cities, for an ad hitting Bobby Schilling on free trade and outsourcing

• PA-06: Manan Trivedi’s new ad goes after Jim Gerlach and ‘special interests’

• PA-08: VoteVets is also out with a spot in the 8th, hitting Mike Fitzpatrick on veterans’ benefits votes during his brief stay in Congress

• WI-03: The National Federation of Independent Business is out with a slew of new ads that includes softening up not-quite-top-tier Dem districts, with 10-day ad buys including not just WI-03 but also CA-11, CO-03, MO-03, NY-19, NY-23, PA-10, OH-16, and SC-05.

• Rasmussen:

• ME-Gov: Libby Mitchell (D) 32%, Paul LePage (R) 35%, Eliot Cutler (I) 21%

• NH-Gov: John Lynch (D-inc) 53%, John Stephen (R) 43%

• NV-Sen: Harry Reid (D-inc) 48%, Sharron Angle (R) 49%

• OH-Gov: Ted Strickland (D-inc) 45%, John Kasich (R) 48%

• OR-Sen: Ron Wyden (D) 52%, Jim Huffman (R) 36%

• WV-Sen: Joe Manchin (D) 46%, John Raese (R) 49%

Mark Penn: Republicans Lead Most Competitive Open Seat Races

Noted d-bag Mark Penn is out with ten new polls conducted for The Hill. These are all open seat races with departing Democratic incumbents, with the exception of GOP Rep. Charles Djou’s race and the open seat being vacated by Mark Kirk.

Penn Schoen for The Hill (10/2-7, likely voters, MoE: ±4.9%):

AR-01:

Chad Causey (D): 34

Rick Crawford (R): 46

HI-01:

Colleen Hanabusa (D): 41

Charles Djou: 45

IL-10:

Dan Seals (D): 49

Robert Dold (R): 37

MI-01:

Gary McDowell (D): 39

Dan Benishek (R): 42

NH-02:

Ann Kuster (D): 42

Charlie Bass (R): 45

PA-07:

Bryan Lentz (D): 39

Pat Meehan: 40

TN-08:

Roy Herron (D): 37

Stephen Fincher (R): 47

WA-03:

Denny Heck (D): 40

Jaime Herrera (R): 42

WI-07:

Julie Lassa (D): 35

Sean Duffy (R): 44

WV-01:

Mike Oliverio (D): 42

David McKinley (R): 39

StephenCLE’s House Rankings – October 13

Welcome to another edition of StephenCLE’s House Ratings.

With election day now just 20 days away, a couple of things are happening. The generic ballot appeared to bounce for the GOP much of last week, but the last few surveys were even and D+2, knocking the lead down to 4%. That’s about the same as the lead was last week. But that lead seems a bit fabricated because of Gallup going to a likely voter model, sending their leads from GOP +2 or +3 to +12 or +13, which seems way out of whack with most other generic ballot polls. In addition, I’m starting to notice a bit of a regional disparity from the generic ballot show up in polling in individual house districts, especially open seats. It seems as though incumbents and open seats in the southeast, and to a lesser extent the midwest, the democrats are struggling. In the northeast and west though, we’ve seen many favorable results, many of them within the past 2 days or so.

There are a lot of changes, some rightward, some leftward, so many that I can’t talk about them all. I’ll list them after the seat changes and then have some general commentary. Bottom line, this is going to be a close, close fight to the finish for control of the House.

Old House – 256 Democrats, 179 Republicans

New House – 224 Democrats, 211 Republicans

National Swing – Republicans +32

Democratic Pickups (6) – DE-1, FL-25, IL-10, LA-2, HI-1, WA-8

Republican Pickups (38) – AR-1, AR-2, AZ-1, CA-11, CO-3, CO-4, FL-2, FL-8, FL-24, GA-8, IL-11, IL-14, IN-8, KS-3, LA-3, MD-1, MI-1, MS-1, NH-2, ND-1, NY-19, NY-29, OH-1, OH-15, OH-16, PA-3, PA-7, PA-8, PA-11, SC-5, TN-6, TN-8, TX-17, TX-23, VA-2, VA-5, WA-3, WI-7, WI-8

Pickup Changes from last month:

Democrat to Republican – WI-8, CA-11

Republican to Democrat – AZ-5, IL-14, MI-7, PA-10, WA-8, WV-1

Net Seats Changing By Region:

Northeast (New England & Mid-Atlantic) – R+7

Southeast (Border South & Deep South) – R+12

Midwest (Great Lakes & Plains) – R+9

West (Rocky Mountains & Pacific Coast) – R+4

The Map:

Ratings Changes for October 5-12:

1.Arizona-7 – Safe D to Likely D

2.Michigan-15 – Safe D to Likely D

3.Texas-27 – Safe D to Lean D

4.Arkansas-4 – Likely D to Lean D

5.Alabama-2 – Lean D to Toss Up/Tilt D

6.New York-1 – Toss Up/Tilt D to Lean D

7.Illinois-10 – Lean D to Likely D

8.Ohio-13 – Lean D to Likely D

9.Iowa-3 – Toss Up/Tilt D to Lean D

10.Tennessee-8 – Toss Up/Tilt R to Lean R

11.Arkansas-1 – Toss up/Tilt R to Lean R

12.Kansas-3 – Toss Up/Tilt R to Lean R

13.Pennsylvania-7 – Lean R to Toss Up/Tilt R

14.Michigan-1 – Lean R to Toss Up/Tilt R

15.Washington-3 – Lean R to Toss Up/Tilt R

16.Washington-8 – Lean R to Toss Up/Tilt D

17.West Virginia-1 – Toss Up/Tilt R to Toss Up/Tilt D

18.Wisconsin-7 – Toss Up/Tilt R to Lean R

19.Wisconsin-8 – Toss Up/Tilt D to Toss Up/Tilt

20.Pennsylvania-6 – Lean R to Likely R

21.Michigan-7 – Toss Up/Tilt R to Toss Up/Tilt D

22.Tennessee-4 – Lean D to Toss Up/Tilt D

23.Ohio-15 – Toss Up/Tilt R to Lean R

24.Pennsylvania-10 – Toss Up/Tilt R to Toss Up/Tilt D

25.California-11 – Toss Up/Tilt D to Toss Up/Tilt R

26.Arizona-5 – Toss Up/Tilt R to Toss Up/Tilt D

27.Illinois-14 – Toss Up/Tilt R to Toss Up/Tilt D

The net result of these changes is that the democrats gained 6 seats this week, the republicans gained two, putting the national score at Republicans+32. The republican strength at the district level just doesn’t appear to be as strong as the generic ballot would suggest. Virtually all of these moves were based on independent polling results. Notable among these moves is WA-8, which has jumped into the blue column as Team Blue’s 6th pickup of the cycle. I made this move based on not only polling, but a general sense that Dave Reichert’s standing within the district has been damaged somewhat and his campaign hasn’t been strong. I’m thinking now that Delbene pulls in most remaining undecideds and wins this thing.

Two other races I want to point out in particular are MI-7 and NM-2. These races are virtual dead heats in the polls, but I keep them on the blue side of the ledger as the GOPers were both recent congressmen. In a “throw em out” type of year, Teague and Schauer have been running ads starting with “Congressman Steve Pearce/Tim Walberg. That’s potent strategy, and a big reason why I think those two will win. Steve Driehaus is trying to do the same thing in OH-1, but he’s down too much for it to close the gap.

This week, I’ve started to draw the battle lines between “good coattail states” and “bad coattail states”. Wisconsin’s races were downgraded this week now that the prospect of a double-R win at the top appears likely. Arkansas and Tennessee are looking really bad too, and several of those races were downgraded as well, although in the cases of TN-8 and AR-1, the republicans had some good polling results as well. Iowa also looks notoriously bad, which is a big reason why IA-1 and IA-2 are still relatively competitive. I figured IA-3 would be in the red column by now, but it appears that Brad Zaun is a screw-up, which helps Team Blue hold that one. On the other hand, things seem to be improving a bit in Pennsylvania, which along with polling results allow PA-7 and PA-10 to move leftward in the ranks. Maryland appears to be getting better with O’Malley pulling away on Ehrlich, which could help Frank Kratovil survive, though I’m not projecting that yet. Illinois appears to be improving a bit as well with Giannoulias and Quinn inching upward, which appears to be the final nail in Bob Dold’s coffin in IL-10.

Lastly, there are a few races that I am loathe to move based on polling alone. AZ-7 and HI-1 are probably the best examples, as you probably get a lot of non-response from democratic voters in majority-minority districts like these. Colleen Hanabusa in particular I think, if she’s within 5 points going into election day she’s going to win.

I’ll close by saying that the battle for the House is extremely fluid right now. 2 weeks ago, I had only 29 seats turning over, which ballooned to 36 last week. I figured it would stay static or even rise into the 40s just two days ago, then a whole bunch of positive polling came out for Team Blue in the last 48 hours, dropping the number to 32. It’s going to be a roller-coaster ride the rest of the way, and if a game-changing event were to occur somehow, a big swing one way or the other is still possible.

2010 House Big Board (as of October 13 update)

Solid Dem – 148 seats:

AL-7, AZ-4, CA-1, CA-5, CA-6, CA-7, CA-8, CA-9, CA-10, CA-11, CA-12, CA-13, CA-14, CA-15, CA-16, CA-17, CA-23, CA-27, CA-28, CA-29, CA-30, CA-31, CA-32, CA-33, CA-34, CA-35, CA-36, CA-37, CA-38, CA-39, CA-43, CA-51, CA-53, CO-1, CO-2, CT-1, CT-2, CT-3, FL-3, FL-11, FL-17, FL-19, FL-20, FL-23, GA-4, GA-5, GA-13, HI-2, IL-1, IL-2, IL-3, IL-4, IL-5, IL-7, IL-8, IL-9, IN-1, IN-7, KY-3, MD-2, MD-3, MD-4, MD-5, MD-7, MD-8, MA-1, MA-2, MA-3, MA-4, MA-6, MA-7, MA-8, MA-9, ME-1, MI-5, MI-12, MI-13, MI-14, MN-4, MN-5, MN-7, MS-2, MO-1, MO-3, MO-5, NV-1, NJ-1, NJ-6, NJ-8, NJ-9, NJ-10, NJ-13, NY-2, NY-4, NY-5, NY-6, NY-7, NY-8, NY-9, NY-10, NY-11, NY-12, NY-14, NY-15, NY-16, NY-17, NY-18, NY-21, NY-22, NY-27, NY-28, NC-1, NC-4, NC-12, NC-13, OH-9, OH-10, OH-11, OH-17, OK-2, OR-3, OR-4, PA-1, PA-2, PA-14, RI-1, RI-2, SC-6, TN-5, TN-9, TX-9, TX-15, TX-16, TX-18, TX-20, TX-25, TX-28, TX-29, TX-30, VT-1, VA-3, VA-8, WA-1, WA-6, WA-7, WV-3, WI-2, WI-4

Likely Dem – 32 seats:

Arizona-7 (Grijalva)

Arizona-8 (Giffords)

California-20 (Costa)

Connecticut-4 (Himes)

Delaware-1 (Open)

Georgia-12 (Barrow)

Illinois-10 (Seals)

Illinois-12 (Costello)

Indiana-2 (Donnelly)

Louisiana-2 (Cao)

Maine-2 (Michaud)

Massachusetts-5 (Tsongas)

Michigan-15 (Dingell)

Minnesota-1 (Walz)

Minnesota-8 (Oberstar)

North Carolina-2 (Etheridge)

North Carolina-11 (Shuler)

New Jersey-12 (Holt)

New Mexico-3 (Lujan)

New York-20 (Murphy)

New York-25 (Maffei)

Ohio-6 (Wilson)

Ohio-13 (Sutton)

Oregon-1 (Wu)

Pennsylvania-4 (Altmire)

Pennsylvania-13 (Schwartz)

Pennsylvania-17 (Holden)

Virginia-9 (Boucher)

Virginia-11 (Connelly)

Utah-2 (Matheson)

Washington-9 (Smith)

Wisconsin-3 (Kind)

Lean Dem – 28 seats:

Arkansas-4 (Ross)

California-18 (Cardoza)

California-47 (Sanchez)

Colorado-7 (Perlmutter)

Connecticut-5 (Murphy)

Georgia-2 (Bishop)

Hawaii-1 (Djou)

Idaho-1 (Minnick)

Iowa-1 (Braley)

Iowa-2 (Loebsack)

Iowa-3 (Boswell)

Illinois-17 (Hare)

Kentucky-6 (Chandler)

Massachusetts-10 (Open)

Michigan-9 (Peters)

Mississippi-4 (Taylor)

New Jersey-3 (Adler)

New Mexico-1 (Heinrich)

New York-1 (Bishop)

New York-13 (McMahon)

New York-23 (Owens)

North Carolina-7 (McIntyre)

North Carolina-8 (Kissell)

Ohio-18 (Space)

Oregon-5 (Schrader)

Pennsylvania-12 (Critz)

South Dakota-1 (Herseth)

Texas-27 (Ortiz)

Toss Up/Tilt Democratic – 17 seats:

Alabama-2 (Bright)

Arizona-5 (Mitchell)

Florida-22 (Klein)

Florida-25 (Open)

Illinois-14 (Foster)

Indiana-9 (Hill)

Michigan-7 (Schauer)

Missouri-4 (Skelton)

Nevada-3 (Titus)

New Hampshire-1 (Shea-Porter)

New Mexico-2 (Teague)

New York-24 (Arcuri)

Pennsylvania-10 (Carney)

Tennessee-4 (Davis)

Washington-2 (Larsen)

Washington-8 (Reichert)

West Virginia-1 (Open)

Toss Up/Tilt Republican – 22 seats:

Arizona-1 (Kirkpatrick)

California-3 (Lungren)

California-11 (McNerney)

Colorado-3 (Salazar)

Florida-2 (Boyd)

Florida-8 (Grayson)

Florida-12 (Open)

Georgia-8 (Marshall)

Maryland-1 (Kratovil)

Michigan-1 (Open)

Mississippi-1 (Childers)

New Hampshire-2 (Open)

New York-19 (Hall)

North Dakota-1 (Pomeroy)

Ohio-16 (Boccieri)

Pennsylvania-3 (Dahlkemper)

Pennsylvania-7 (Open)

Pennsylvania-8 (Murphy)

South Carolina-5 (Spratt)

Texas-23 (Rodriguez)

Washington-3 (Open)

Wisconsin-8 (Kagen)

Lean Rep – 20 seats:

Alabama-5 (Open)

Arizona-3 (Open)

Arkanas-1 (Open)

California-45 (Bono Mack)

Colorado-4 (Markey)

Florida-24 (Kosmas)

Illinois-11 (Halvorson)

Indiana-8 (Open)

Kansas-3 (Open)

Kansas-4 (Open)

Minnesota-6 (Bachmann)

Ohio-1 (Driehaus)

Ohio-15 (Kilroy)

Pennsylvania-11 (Kanjorski)

Pennsylvania-15 (Dent)

Virginia-2 (Nye)

Virginia-5 (Perriello)

Tennessee-8 (Open)

Texas-17 (Edwards)

Wisconsin-7 (Open)

Likely Rep – 13 seats:

Arkansas-2 (Open)

California-44 (Calvert)

Indiana-3 (Open)

Louisiana-3 (Open)

Michigan-3 (Open)

Missouri-8 (Emerson)

Nebraska-2 (Terry)

New York-29 (Open)

Ohio-12 (Tiberi)

Pennsylvania-6 (Gerlach)

Pennsylvania-16 (Pitts)

South Carolina-2 (Wilson)

Virginia-1 (Wittman)

Solid Rep – 155 seats:

AL-1, AL-3, AL-4, AL-6, AK-1, AZ-2, AZ-6, AR-3, CA-2, CA-4, CA-19, CA-21, CA-22, CA-24, CA-25, CA-26, CA-40, CA-41, CA-42, CA-46, CA-48, CA-49, CA-50, CA-52, CO-5, CO-6, FL-1, FL-4, FL-5, FL-6, FL-7, FL-9, FL-10, FL-13, FL-14, FL-15, FL-16, FL-18, FL-21, GA-1, GA-3, GA-7, GA-9, GA-10, GA-11, ID-2, IL-6, IL-13, IL-15, IL-16, IL-18, IL-19, IN-4, IN-5, IN-6, IA-4, IA-5, KS-1, KS-2, KY-1, KY-2, KY-4, KY-5, LA-1, LA-4, LA-5, LA-6, LA-7, MD-6, MI-2, MI-4, MI-6, MI-8, MI-10, MI-11, MN-2, MN-3, MS-3, MO-2, MO-6, MO-7, MO-9, MT-1, NE-1, NE-3, NV-2, NJ-2, NJ-5, NJ-4, NJ-7, NJ-11, NY-3, NY-26, NC-3, NC-5, NC-6, NC-9, NC-10, OH-2, OH-3, OH-4, OH-5, OH-7, OH-8, OH-14, OK-1, OK-3, OK-4, OK-5, OR-2, PA-5, PA-9, PA-18, PA-19, SC-1, SC-3, SC-4, TN-1, TN-2, TN-3, TN-6, TN-7, TX-1, TX-2, TX-3, TX-4, TX-5, TX-6, TX-7, TX-8, TX-10, TX-11, TX-12, TX-13, TX-14, TX-19, TX-21, TX-22, TX-24, TX-26, TX-31, TX-32, UT-1, UT-3, VA-4, VA-6, VA-7, VA-10, WA-4, WA-5, WV-2, WI-1, WI-5, WI-6, WY-1

SSP Daily Digest: 10/13 (Morning Edition)

AK-Sen: A new PAC called “Alaskans Standing Together” has spent $600K on ads for Lisa Murkowski, a pretty huge sum for the state. AST filed with the FEC as a so-called “Super PAC,” as the Washington Independent puts it, which allows them to “raise and spend unlimited amounts of money, so long as they do so entirely independent of candidates or political parties.” Sounds a lot like a 527, except that AST will (supposedly) have to file its donor lists with the FEC. One of their ads is here – almost sounds like a Dem spot, except for the fact that Scott McAdams’ ads have been far better than this.

CT-Sen: Talking Points Memo went digging into an old story about a former WWF referee who, after making claims that Vince McMahon sexually assaulted her, was sued by both Vince and Linda McMahon in the early `90s. (They also sued Geraldo Rivera, on whose show the ref made her allegations.) The McMahons eventually dropped their suit after a year… but now that TPM is writing about it, their lawyer has threatened TPM with legal action.

WV-Sen: Trying to understand why Politico is presenting this as a new story, when we knew two weeks ago that zillionaire asshole John Raese loudly and proudly announced that he doesn’t support the minimum wage.

NV-Gov: Is this story going to blow up in the same way the Meg Whitman housekeeper story did? A woman says she cleaned Brian Sandoval’s home back in the late `90s while she was an illegal immigrant, and that Sandoval never asked her for documentation. Sandoval and his wife are claiming they don’t know the woman.

SC-Gov: Winthrop University (10/5-10, likely voters, no trendlines):

Vincent Sheheen (D): 37

Nikki Haley (R): 46

Undecided: 13

(MoE: ±3.6%)

TN-08: Looks like Roy Herron is trying to make the most of the news that the DCCC’s abandoning him: He’s claiming it’s because he won’t support Nancy Pelosi. Gotta give the dude credit for trying – there’s lemonade in there somewhere!

UT-02: A poll by the Utah Policy Center apparently shows Rep. Jim Matheson leading Republican Morgan Philpot 46-30, with 20% undecided. The full details are behind a paywall, so we don’t know the field dates or voter screen.

DCCC: Ah, the panzers are definitely reconsolidating now, for real. The Fix’s Aaron Blake has a detailed writeup of the D-Trip’s ongoing triage efforts. As we mentioned yesterday, it looks like Kathy Dahlkemper (PA-03), Steve Dreihaus (OH-01), and Suzanne Kosmas (FL-24) are being left on the cutting room floor. In addition, Blake confirms his earlier tweet that Trent van Haaften (IN-08), Roy Herron (TN-08 – see above), and Stephene Moore (KS-03) are also apparently on their own as they defend open seats. Two “good” cancellations were also made in LA-02 and DE-AL, where Dem pickup chances are looking good. (Remember that even in 1994, Dems won four open seats.) But really, click through and read the whole piece, as Blake has details of cuts made all around the country – though he notes that many are small and may just represent resource shifts.

SSP TV:

NY-Gov: Andy Cuomo touts the Medicaid Fraud unit at the AG’s office, then attacks Carl Paladino as a shady insider
AL-02: Bobby Bright explains that he’s basically more-or-less a Republican
NH-02: Annie Kuster hits Charlie Bass on a common theme, “raising his own pay” while a member of Congress
PA-Sen: Two Joe Sestak ads on the same theme: the first points out what would have happened to retirement savings over the last couple of years had Social Security been privatized (per Pat Toomey’s wishes); the second features seniors saying basically the same thing

Independent Expenditures:

PA-10: The DCCC spends $47K attacking Tom Marino – I’m wondering if some of this is for web ads, since there’s an $8 charge from GoDaddy (and the sums are smallish, though possibly radio-level)
Realtors: Spend $1.3 mil helping Dems Joe Donnelly (IN-02), Dennis Cardoza (CA-18), John Adler (NJ-03), and Ed Perlmutter (CO-07)

My firewall for keep the maximum offices in democratic hands.

I think this would be a good firewall for limit the republican gains to reasonable limits. Like all in this world, this is good for today but I will update the diary after know new results in this week.

This diary is not based only in the polls, but the polls are important information what we can not forget.

For the next boxes (quotes), this is the code for some statewide offices:

AG=Attorney General

SS=Secretary of State

ST=State Treasurer

SC=State Comptroller

SA=State Auditor)

PS: I’m updating the diary every day after know the new polls and other changes.

First I will resume the gains what I can accept (so resigned):

REPUBLICAN LIKELY GAINS WHAT I ASSUME AT THIS POINT

The order is not the most important thing here.

SENATE (3):

ND-Sen

IN-Sen

AR-Sen B Lincoln

GOVERNOR (7):

WY-Gov

KS-Gov

TN-Gov

OK-Gov

OH-Gov T Strickland

MI-Gov

IA-Gov C Culver

HOUSE (25):

TN-06

KS-03

LA-03

IN-08

AR-02

FL-02 A Boyd

TN-08

OH-16 J Boccieri

VA-02 G Nye

MI-01

NY-29

IL-11 D Halvorson

PA-03 K Dahlkemper

NH-01 C Shea-Porter

OH-01 S Driehaus

WI-07

OH-15 M Kilroy

PA-11 P Karjorski

FL-24 S Kosmas

TX-17 C Edwards

VA-05 T Perriello

AR-01

WI-08 S Kagen

CO-04 E Markey

TX-27 S Ortiz

LIEUTENANT GOVERNOR (7):

LA-LG

KS-LG

OK-LG

OH-LG

MI-LG

IA-LG

AR-LG

STATEWIDE OFFICES (15):

AL-CAI (Commissioner of Agriculture and Industries)

AR-CSL (Commissioner of State Lands)

KS-SS C Biggs

OK-AG

KS-ST D McKinney

OK-ST

KS-AG S Six

OK-CL (Commissioner of Labor) L Fields

GA-AG

FL-CFO (Chief Financial Officer)

IL-SC

OK-SA S Burrage

OK-IC (Insurance Commissioner) K Holland

OH-AG R Cordray

AR-SS

I’m not optimistic about some statewide offices in Arkansas. They are some obscure polls (Hendrix College) what seem contradictories. The poll of Sooner confirms my bad numbers about the statewide offices in Oklahoma.

In the other side the likely democratic gains would be:

DEMOCRATIC LIKELY GAINS WITHOUT EXCESSIVE OPTIMISM

SENATE (0):

—

GOVERNOR (7):

RI-Gov F Caprio

MN-Gov M Dayton

HI-Gov N Abercrombie

CT-Gov D Malloy

CA-Gov J Brown

FL-Gov A Sink

VT-Gov P Shumlin

HOUSE (7):

DE-AL J Carney

IL-10 D Seals

FL-25 J Garcia

FL-12 L Edwards (The reupublicans can have bad numbers here)

AZ-03 J Hulburd

HI-01 C Hanabusa

LA-02 C Richmond

LIEUTENANT GOVERNOR (6):

VT-LG S Howard

MN-LG Y Prettner Solon

HI-LG B Schatz

CT-LG N Wyman

CA-LG G Newsom

FL-LG R Smith

STATEWIDE OFFICES (3):

NM-CPL (Commissioner of Public Lands) R Powell

CA-IC (Insurance Commissioner) D Jones

VT-SA D Hoffer

Still they are not enough data for have a strong opinion about VT-LG, NM-CPL, CA-IC and VT-SA, I think the democratic side can be favored.

Few more winnable races, I look to KY-Sen (J Conway), WA-08 (S DelBene) and to some surprise statewide (basically can come from AZ-ST, IN-SS, SC-AG, SC-LG, SD-SS, FL-CACS or OH-SA). If the democratic side keeps PA-Gov, PA-LG (H Scott Conklin) would be a gain too.

That would give a net loses of (until now):

Senate: -3

Governor: =0 (but FL-Gov is a gain from Independents)

House: -18

Lieutenant Governor: -1

Statewide Offices: -12

Sure the democratic side will have more loses. For keep the majority in the senate the democrats can lose 4 seats more (looking to J Lieberman) and for keep the majority in the house 20 seats (17 without FL-25, FL-12 and AZ-03), what the republicans must win from this “firewall”:

FIREWALL FOR FIGHT HARD AGAINST MORE REPUBLICAN GAINS

All the races included in every level of the firewall are races for fight hard if it is necessary.

LEVEL1: Hard work bust still some hope

SENATE (0):

—

GOVERNOR (3):

NM-Gov D Denish

PA-Gov D Onorato

WI-Gov T Barrett

HOUSE (11):

MS-01 T Childers

FL-08 A Grayson

AZ-01 A Kirkpatrick

PA-10 C Carney

MD-01 F Kratovil

CO-03 J Salazar

NM-02 H Teague

NY-19 J Hall

IL-14 W Foster

PA-07 B Lentz

WA-03 D Heck

LIEUTENANT GOVERNOR (2):

NM-LG B Colon

WI-LG T Nelson

STATEWIDE OFFICES (0):

—

Still losing all these offices, the democrats are under the limits for keep the majority in both chambers. Maybe the republicans win the majority, but I think they will lose some of these offices.

LEVEL2: The pure Toss-Up zone

SENATE (2):

WI-Sen R Feingold

NV-Sen H Reid

GOVERNOR (2):

IL-Gov P Quinn

ME-Gov E Mitchell

HOUSE (18):

AZ-05 H Mitchell

ND-AL E Pomeroy

TN-04 L Davis

GA-08 J Marshall

MO-04 I Skelton

CA-11 J McNerney

MI-07 M Schauer

NY-23 W Owens

IL-17 P Hare

PA-08 P Murphy

NV-03 D Titus

TX-23 C Rodriguez

NC-02 B Etheridge

OH-18 Z Space

AZ-08 G Giffords

IL-08 M Bean

VA-11 G Connolly

OR-05 K Schrader

LIEUTENANT GOVERNOR (1):

IL-LG S Simon

STATEWIDE OFFICES (10):

CA-AG K Harris

OK-SPI (Superintendent of Public Instruction) S Paddack

OH-ST K Boyce

AZ-AG F Rotellini

SC-SE (Superintendent of Education) F Holleman

GA-CL (Commissioner of Labor) D Hicks

GA-CA (Commissioner of Agriculture) J Powell

CO-ST C Kennedy

IL-ST R Kelly

CO-SS B Buescher

In this group they are a decent number of underpolled races. Some polls would help to reduce the size of this group, because some races seem to go better than the polls show (IL-08,…).

I think some of the races of this group are more difficult than some of the Level1 but some of this races have more favorable polls than expected. Still I think the republicans will win less than the half of these races.

LEVEL3: Favored but decent risk

SENATE (3):

CO-Sen M Bennet

PA-Sen J Sestak

IL-Sen A Giannoulias

GOVERNOR (1):

OR-Gov J Kitzhaber

HOUSE (15):

WV-01 M Oliverio

AL-02 B Bright

IN-09 B Hill

NC-08 L Kissell

SD-AL C Herseth-Sandlin

FL-22 R Klein

IA-03 L Boswell

OH-06 C Wilson

MS-04 G Taylor

PA-12 M Critz

NY-20 S Murphy

MA-10 W Keating

CO-07 E Perlmutter

NH-02 A Kuster

OH-13 B Sutton

LIEUTENANT GOVERNOR (0):

—

STATEWIDE OFFICES (4):

OH-SS M O’Shaughnessy

IA-SS M Mauro

DE-ST C Flowers

NV-SC K Marshall

The republicans can win some of this races but I think will be few, very few.

OFFICES BY STATE IN THE FIREWALL

IL=7 (IL-Sen and IL-Gov) Battleground state

PA=6 (PA-Sen and PA-Gov) Battleground state

CO=5 (CO-Sen) Battleground state

OH=5

AZ=4

WI=3 (WI-Sen and WI-Gov) Battleground state

NV=3 (Sen)

NM=3 (Gov)

NY=3

GA=3

Other states have only 2 or 1 offices.

I keep my recommendation of donate to the democratic candidates in the bold emphasized races especially in the battleground states. The alone change is include NV-Sen and leaves FL-Gov and OH-Gov. A Sink is opening a good advantage and seems need less. With the gubernatorial race in Ohio going toward the republican side, Ohio would not be a battleground state. Still they are many lower level competitive elections.

I think will be not easy what the republicans win the majority in the senate or in the house. I think the democrats can keep the majority in both chambers. If you start to count they are not enough seat where the republicans seems enough favored for win clearly. Then it is time for fight and keep the wish of win.

The rest of the offices currently in democratic hands seems a little safer (including WV-Sen J Manchin, KY-06 B Chandler, SC-05 J Spratt, NC-07 M McIntyre and NY-24 M Arcuri as the more difficult seats). But still, for have not surprises I want some poll about:

STILL LOOKING FOR SOME POLL

SENATE (0):

—

GOVERNOR (0):

—

HOUSE (0):

—

LIEUTENANT GOVERNOR (0):

—

STATEWIDE OFFICES (5):

VT-SS J Condos

OR-ST T Wheeler

MN-SA R Otto

NM-SS M Herrera

MO-SA S Montee

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