Month: November 2010

Over-Time

  • AK-Sen: Right now, write-ins account for 41% of the vote in Alaska, while Joe Miller has 34% and Scott McAdams 24%. State election officials have bumped up the start of the write-in count to Nov. 10th (from Nov. 18th). Murkowski is one of 160 declared write-in candidates, but obviously quite a few write-ins ballots would have to be spoiled, or for other candidates, for her to lose.
  • WA-Sen: Patty Murray’s lead widened to 1.6% as votes were counted in the populous Democratic stronghold of King County. The trends look poor for Dino Rossi, who took 40% here in 2004 (when he almost tied Christine Gregoire in the gubernatorial race), but is now at 37% this year.
  • CT-Gov: Yikes – the AP withdrew its call for Dem Dan Malloy. This one could get seriously topsy-turvy. Whatever the hell is going on here might also impact Jim Himes (vs. Dan Debicella) in CT-04. Not good.
  • MN-Gov: With 100% of precincts reporting, Dem Mark Dayton holds an 8,854-vote lead over Republican Tom Emmer, within the half-percent margin which would prompt an automatic recount. No recount can start until after Nov. 23rd, when the vote is certified. Note that Norm Coleman’s election-day lead was just 725 votes in 2008. So even though GOP lawyers are already laying in a supply of amphetamines, it’s possible the Republicans will abandon what looks like a futile effort.
  • IL-Gov: Man, did anyone dig a mangier rabbit out of a shabbier hat than Pat Quinn? After a day of counting more votes in Cook County (Chicago), Quinn’s lead has expanded to 19,000 votes, and Republicans are getting ready to throw in the towel on behalf of Bill Brady. Pretty amazing, for a guy who seemed DOA just a couple of months ago.
  • OR-Gov: As we noted yesterday, various media sources have called the race for Dem John Kitzhaber over Chris Dudley.
  • AZ-07: As we noted yesterday, Dem Rep. Raul Grijalva has declared victory over Ruth McClung, with a 3% lead. A Grijalva spokesman said that the remaining ballots are in Pima County, which favors Dems.
  • AZ-08: Dem Rep. Gabby Giffords leads by 2,349 votes over Jesse Kelly, but again, Pima – they have some 47,000 votes still outstanding. Pima was one of only four counties to go for Kerry – and for Obama, too.
  • CA-11: With an unclear number of votes left to be counted, Dem Rep. Jerry McNerney has inched into a 121-vote lead over David Harmer. It’ll take four weeks for the vote to get certified, at which point the loser can seek a recount (at his own expense).
  • CA-20: Dem Rep. Jim Costa trails Andy Vidak by almost 2,000 votes, but there may be something like 30,000 uncounted ballots from Fresno County, which Costa won on e-night by a 2-to-1 margin. So maybe we’ll get lucky here.
  • IL-08: With 100% of the vote in, Dem Rep. Melissa Bean is trailing in a shocker to Jim Walsh by 553 votes. She isn’t conceding yet, though.
  • KY-06: With 100% of votes counted, Dem Rep. Ben Chandler has a 619 vote lead over Andy Barr. Barr has until next Tuesday to request a “recanvass,” which would be completed by Nov. 12th. Barr could then ask for a formal recount, but he’d have to foot the bill.
  • NY-25: Really barfy: As we noted yesterday, Republican Ann Marie Buerkle has moved into the lead, after late results from Wayne County came in. She’s now up by 659 votes. Some 8,300 absentee ballots have been returned so far (out of 11,600 requested), though more are trickling in. Maffei would have to pull in something like 54% or so out of the absentees to pull this one out.
  • TX-27: It’s looking pretty bad for Dem Rep. Solomon Oritz, who trails Blake Farenthold by 799 votes with 100% in. Farenthold has declared victory, but Ortiz claims his legal team is conducting a review and that he may seek a recount – which he would have to pay for (unless it changes the final results). And check out how far the apple has fallen from the tree:

    • Farenthold is grandson of Frances “Sissy” Farenthold, a Democrat who served two terms in the state House and ran unsuccessfully for governor in 1972. That same year, she finished second in balloting to become George McGovern’s vice presidential candidate at the Democratic convention.

  • VA-11: With 100% of precincts reporting, Dem Rep. Gerry Connolly leads Keith Fimian 111,621 to 110,696. The vote will get certified on Nov. 22nd, at which time Fimian can seek a recount if the margin remains less than half a percent (recounts are not automatic).
  • WA-02, WA-09: As we noted yesterday, a number of media outlets have called the 9th CD race for Dem Rep. Adam Smith over Dick Muri. Meanwhile, Rick Larsen has taken his first lead over John Koster, albeit a narrow one (30% of votes remain to be counted).

    • Very Early Look at 2012 House Elections

    As of 3:30 AM on Nov. 4th the Republicans have a 239 seat majority in the House which is 21 seats over the 218 needed for the majority.

    So I started taking a VERY EARLY look at 2012 House Seats and seeing if there are at least 22 seats the Democrats should realistically be able to take a run at if 2012 is a normal election year (50-50 turnout).

    So the seats we lost that I think we’d have a 40% chance of winning and up are AZ-01 (R+4), AZ-05 (R+5), CA-20 (D+5), FL-02 (R+6), FL-08 (R+2), FL-22 (D+1) FL-24 (R+4), IL-08 (R+1), IL-11 (R+1), IL-14 (R+1), IL-17 (D+3), MI-01 (R+3), MI-07 (R+2), MN-08 (D+3), NV-03 (D+2), NH-01 (EVEN), NH-02 (D+3), NJ-03 (R+1), NY-13 (R+4), NY-19 (R+3), NY-20 (R+2), NY-24 (R+2), NC-02 (R+2), OH-01 (D+1), OH-06 (R+2), OH-15 (D+1), OH-16 (R+4), PA-07 (D+3),  PA-08 (D+2), PA-11 (D+4), TX-23 (R+4), TX-27 (R+2), WA-03 (EVEN), WI-07 (D+3), and WI-08 (R+2). Right there is 35 seats, if I counted correctly, where the Dems should be able to win at least 1/2 of them by it simply not being 2010 Part II.

    Then we could add in the Republican seats that should be up for a challenge in a Presidential election like AZ-03 (Quayle won by 11.6%), CA-03, CA-44, CA-45, CA-49, FL-12, FL-25, IL-10, MN-06 (Bachmann is bound to shoot herself in the foot soon), PA-06, PA-07, SC-02 (Wilson won by 9.8% in this year, imagine when AA turnout is higher), and WA-08. The Dems have a much smaller chance at winning any of these districts, aside from IL-10, but 1/2 of 35 is 17.5 and adding 2-3 seats here would put Democrats within 2 seats of re-taking the House.

    Now I’m sure redistricting will shake things up and some senior Democrats and Republicans will retire but as of today I think the Democrats could just have an average election year and still take back the House albeit with a tiny minority. If Obama gets a re-election bounce similar to Clinton in 1996 then maybe his coattails could elect another 10 or so Democrats.

    P.S. If you see any seats that I forgot to list please let me know.

    P.P.S I looked at a combination of a districts PVI and 08/10 election numbers.

    CT-Gov: AP Withdraws Malloy Call

    Uh-oh:

    The Associated Press is withdrawing its call of Democrat Dan Malloy as the winner of Connecticut’s race for governor.

    The Associated Press based its call on statements by the Connecticut Secretary of State. Susan Bysiewicz that Malloy had defeated Republican Tom Foley by 3,103 votes and that there would be no statewide recount, if her preliminary totals held.

    AP’s vote count now shows Foley with a lead of 8,424 votes over Malloy, with all but 1.5 percent of the precincts counted. Bysiewicz has not released any vote results to support her statements earlier Wednesday.

    UPDATE: Jeez. Both Malloy and Foley are declaring victory and announcing transition teams.

    LATER UPDATE: Taniel, in the comments here and over at his own blog points to some pretty seriously sloppy number-counting by the Associated Press, amounting to a significant under-reporting of Malloy’s vote in the city of New Haven. I’ll note here that as someone who has more than a few liveblogs under my belt, I can think of several instances where the AP has made significant errors in their tabulation of results. (For instance, they made big errors in their OH-15 and SC-01 results reporting last cycle.) While an invaluable resource, they’ve been known to make mistakes!

    Analysis of the results since my prediction

    I feel not very bad after all. Maybe because I’m a positive person what find always the good part of the situation.

    They are some results what touch my mind. But they are not very much:

    FIRST LEVEL:

    Turn me off

    WI-ST D Sass

    MN-08 J Oberstar

    IL-10 D Seals

    NH-02 A Kuster

    and if the democratic candidates lose, OR-Gov J Kitzhaber, WA-02 R Larsen and NY-25 D Maffei would be in this group too.

    Turn me on

    —

    SECOND LEVEL (little less surprise):

    Turn me off

    IL-Sen A Giannoulias

    IA-SS M Mauro

    VT-SA D Hoffer

    Turn me on

    IL-Gov P Quinn

    IL-LG S Simon

    NY-23 W Owens

    SENATE

    My prediction works not bad in this level. I tell 5 but finally can be 6 seats because WA seems to go by the right way.

    Illinois is the state where I fail. And it is sad lose this seat because I think we lose cause of have not the strongest candidate.

    R Feingold and J Sestak finally lose and this is an important coup to the democrats from Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. They can not keep the seats despite they run with their best but the year was too bad for it. Still, I think both can return in a better year.

    Sometimes I tell M Beeve would be the candidate what can keep the seat in Arkansas this year, but I have to admit that the challenge was hard. I think E Bayh would not keep his seat against the more prominent republicans from his home state.

    This was my last prediction:

    Republican gains = 5

    ND-Sen (- 45.00%)

    IN-Sen (- 18.25%)

    AR-Sen (- 16.00%) B Lincoln

    WI-Sen (- 05.50%) R Feingold

    PA-Sen (- 03.25%)

    Democratic gains = 0

    —

    Other interesting races in single digits

    KY-Sen (- 08.75%)

    MO-Sen (- 07.25%)

    AK-Sen (- 04.75%)

    CO-Sen (+ 00.75%) M Bennet

    NV-Sen (+ 01.00%) H Reid

    IL-Sen (+ 02.50%) A Giannoulias

    WV-Sen (+ 03.50%) J Manchin

    WA-Sen (+ 04.00%) P Murray

    CA-Sen (+ 08.50%) B Boxer

    CT-Sen (+ 09.00%) R Blumenthal

    The percentage is for McAdams under the first republican. My numbers gives Murkowsky leading still, Miller – 00.75% and McAdams – 4.75%.

    GOVERNOR

    Still can be too early for talk about the gubernatorial races, but it would be a pretty good result if we can keep the gubernatorial race in Oregon, winning too Illinois, Minnesota and Connecticut. If someone of these races goes to the republican side will be a disappointing moment for me.

    I’m so happy of be wrong about P Quinn in the gubernatorial election of Illinois. Just this was one of the surprises with higher power for turn me on.

    I would like L Chafee join the democratic team fast. The people back him and they are not reasons for continue as independent in one of the bluest states. RI-Gov must be a new gain for the democrats.

    My last prediction was:

    Republican gains = 13

    WY-Gov (- 32.33%)

    KS-Gov (- 31.00%)

    TN-Gov (- 25.75%)

    MI-Gov (- 15.75%)

    OK-Gov (- 14.75%)

    IA-Gov (- 11.25%) C Culver

    ME-Gov (- 09.25%)

    NM-Gov (- 07.75%)

    PA-Gov (- 07.25%)

    WI-Gov (- 06.00%)

    IL-Gov (- 04.75%) P Quinn

    OH-Gov (- 03.00%) T Strickland

    FL-Gov (- 00.25%) (republican gain from Independents)

    “Democratic” gains = 5 + 1

    CT-Gov (= 00.00%) D Malloy

    VT-Gov (+ 02.33%) P Shumlin

    HI-Gov (+ 04.25%) N Abercrombie

    MN-Gov (+ 05.00%) M Dayton

    CA-Gov (+ 06.75%) J Brown

    RI-Gov (+ 08.50%) L Chafee (Ind) (over Robitaille)

    Other interesting races in single digits

    AZ-Gov (- 09.25%)

    GA-Gov (- 08.00%)

    SC-Gov (- 07.50%)

    OR-Gov (+ 02.75%) J Kitzhaber

    CO-Gov (+ 05.00%) J Hickenlooper

    MA-Gov (+ 06.25%) D Patrick

    HOUSE

    Here my numbers give the worst results with difference. I was right about the seats what I give as republican gains or retentions except for NY-23, HI-01 and maybe VA-11, but my numbers tell what the democratic side would keep other seats what finally lose.

    Like for all the groups I bold emphasize the races where my numbers fail. Still they are more what I include not in the list because my numbers give high single digits of advantage to the incumbent party. I talk explicitly about AL-02 in my prediction but they are more like ID-01, NY-13, NY-24, VA-09 and MN-08. Maybe NY-25 too.

    Some house races are without call still but I take the leading candidate as favored for this analysis.

    Just MN-08 gives one of the results what I take worse with IL-10 and NH-02. Minnesota appears as an easy state by many months and we can see in the final results a strong enthusiasm gap.

    This was my last prediction for this group:

    Republican gains = 45

    TN-06 (<- 10.00%) (double digits for the republican)

    KS-03 (<- 10.00%)

    LA-03 (<- 10.00%)

    IN-08 (- 18.50%)

    FL-02 (- 16.50%) A Boyd

    NY-29 (- 15.50%)

    AR-02 (- 14.25%)

    TN-08 (- 11.50%)

    GA-08 (- 10.75%) J Marshall

    IL-11 (- 10.75%) D Halvorson

    TX-17 (- 10.25%) C Edwards

    PA-03 (- 10.25%) K Dahlkemper

    NH-01 (- 10.00%) C Shea-Porter

    OH-16 (- 09.67%) J Boccieri

    OH-01 (- 09.00%) S Driehaus

    WI-08 (- 08.00%) S Kagen

    OH-15 (- 07.75%) M Kilroy

    WA-03 (- 07.50%)

    WI-07 (- 07.50%)

    PA-07 (- 07.25%)

    FL-24 (- 06.67%) S Kosmas

    VA-02 (- 06.25%) G Nye

    MI-01 (- 06.00%)

    CO-04 (- 04.67%) B Markey

    MS-01 (- 04.50%) T Childers

    MD-01 (- 04.50%) F Kratovil

    VA-05 (- 04.50%) T Perriello

    CO-03 (- 04.50%) J Salazar

    NM-02 (- 04.25%) H Teague

    FL-08 (- 04.25%) A Grayson

    AR-01 (- 04.00%)

    TX-27 (- 04.00%) S Ortiz

    TX-23 (- 03.33%) C Rodriguez

    PA-10 (- 02.75%) C Carney

    IL-17 (- 02.25%) P Hare

    NV-03 (- 02.00%) C Titus

    NY-23 (- 01.75%) W Owens

    NY-20 (- 01.50%) S Murphy

    NJ-03 (- 01.00%) J Adler

    VA-11 (- 01.00%) G Connolly

    AZ-01 (- 00.75%) A Kirkpatrick

    IL-14 (- 00.50%) W Foster

    SC-05 (- 00.25%) J Spratt

    PA-08 (- 00.25%) P Murphy

    MI-07 (= 00.00%) M Schauer

    Democratic gains = 4

    FL-25 (+ 01.25%) J Garcia

    IL-10 (+ 03.50%) D Seals

    DE-AL (+ 12.00%) J Carney

    LA-02 (+ 13.75%) C Richmond

    Other interesting races in low single digits

    AZ-03 (- 02.00%)

    HI-01 (- 01.25%)

    FL-12 (- 00.50%)

    NY-19 (+ 00.25%) J Hall

    OH-06 (+ 00.33%) C Wilson

    MA-10 (+ 00.50%) W Keating

    MI-09 (+ 00.67%) G Peeters

    ND-AL (+ 01.00%) E Pomeroy

    SD-AL (+ 01.00%) S Herseth-Sandlin

    NC-02 (+ 01.00%) R Etheridge

    CA-11 (+ 01.00%) G McNerney

    OR-05 (+ 01.00%) K Schrader

    CT-04 (+ 01.00%) J Himes

    AZ-05 (+ 01.25%) H Mitchell

    PA-12 (+ 01.25%) M Critz

    PA-11 (+ 01.25%) P Kanjorski

    CA-20 (+ 01.33%) J Costa

    TN-04 (+ 02.50%) L Davis

    IL-08 (+ 02.50%) M Bean

    NH-02 (+ 02.50%) A Kuster

    WA-02 (+ 02.50%) R Larsen

    FL-22 (+ 03.00%) R Klein

    CO-07 (+ 03.00%) E Perlmutter

    GA-02 (+ 03.25%) S Bishop

    MS-04 (+ 03.33%) G Taylor

    IN-09 (+ 03.33%) B Hill

    OH-13 (+ 03.50%) B Sutton

    OH-18 (+ 04.00%) Z Space

    AZ-08 (+ 04.00%) G Giffords

    NM-01 (+ 04.25%) M Heinrich

    WV-01 (+ 04.50%) M Oliverio

    MO-04 (+ 05.00%) I Skelton

    My numbers tell NC-07, AL-02 and NC-08 are in high single digits.

    They are 25 races between 0 and -5 and 31 between 0 and +5. The majority in the House is still in play. It is time of fight hard until the last day.

    LIEUTENANT GOVERNOR

    Here my point is so close with the gubernatorial races with few differences. As example, they are not Lieutenant Governor in Oregon. That mean I also feel not bad about this group.

    My numbers again work so well in this group, but fail for AL-LG race, and maybe for IL-LG (running in the same ticket that the governor). J Folsom is affected by the wave like many house members running in R+ districts.

    My last prediction for this group was:

    Republican gains = 10

    LA-LG (<- 10.00%)

    KS-LG (- 31.00%)

    MI-LG (- 15.75%)

    OK-LG (- 12.00%)

    IA-LG (- 11.25%) P Judge

    NM-LG (- 07.75%)

    WI-LG (- 06.00%)

    IL-LG (- 04.75%)

    OH-LG (- 03.00%)

    AR-LG (- 02.33%)

    Democratic gains = 4

    CT-LG (= 00.00%) N Wyman

    HI-LG (+ 04.25%) B Schatz

    MN-LG (+ 05.00%) Y Prettner Solon

    CA-LG (+ 06.50%) G Newsom

    Other interesting races in single digits

    PA-LG (- 07.25%)

    VT-LG (- 05.00%)

    SC-LG (- 04.00%)

    FL-LG (- 00.25%)

    MA-LG (+ 06.25%) T Murray

    AL-LG (+ 06.33%) J Folsom

    STATEWIDE OFFICES

    This is the code for some statewide offices included in this box (quote):

    AG=Attorney General

    SS=Secretary of State

    ST=State Treasurer

    SC=State Comptroller

    SA=State Auditor

    IC=Insurance Commissioner

    CL=Commissioner of Labor

    For this group again my numbers work so well. I have 5 mistakes in my prediction. The biggest surprise is WI-ST, but this is a relative surprise looking to the other prospects and results for this state. Four close races (following my numbers) go finally to the republican side too, giving new gains to the republicans. They are IA-SS, VT-SA, OH-SS and SC-SE.

    Republican gains = 25

    AL-CAI (<- 10.00%) (Commissioner of Agriculture and Industries)

    AR-CSL (- 24.00%) (Commissioner of State Lands)

    KS-SS (- 22.67%) C Biggs

    OK-AG (- 20.00%)

    IL-SC (- 18.00%)

    KS-ST (- 16.00%) D McKinney

    GA-CA (- 16.00%)

    OK-ST (- 14.00%)

    KS-AG (- 12.33%) S Six

    GA-AG (- 11.67%)

    OK-CL (- 11.00%) L Fields

    FL-CFO (- 09.00%) (Chief Financial Officer)

    AZ-AG (- 08.75%)

    NM-SS (- 08.00%) M Herrera

    OK-SA (- 06.00%) S Burrage

    OK-IC (- 06.00%) K Holland

    CO-ST (- 06.00%) C Kennedy

    IL-ST (- 05.67%)

    CO-SS (- 04.33%) B Buescher

    OH-AG (- 04.25%) R Cordray

    AR-SS (- 04.00%)

    OK-SPI (- 03.00%) (Superintendent of Public Instruction)

    MO-SA (- 03.00%) S Montee

    OH-ST (- 00.25%) K Boyce

    GA-CL (= 00.00%)

    Democratic gains = 3

    VT-SA (= 00.00%) D Hoffer

    CA-IC (+ 17.00%) D Jones

    NM-CPL (>+ 10.00%) (Commissioner of Public Lands) R Powell

    Other interesting races in low single digits

    OH-SA (- 02.50%)

    IA-SS (+ 01.00%) M Mauro

    CA-AG (+ 01.50%) K Harris

    NV-SC (+ 01.75%) K Marshall

    OH-SS (+ 02.00%) M O’Shaughnessy

    DE-ST (+ 02.00%) C Flowers

    SC-SE (+ 03.00%) (Superintendent of Education) F Holleman

    MA-SA (+ 04.25%) S Bump

    I bold emphasize the races where my numbers give not the right winner. For four of the five goups (Senate, Governor, Lieutenant Governor and Statewide Offices) my numbers give so good numbers. For some hundreds of offices, I fail for 9 (waiting still for OR-Gov). They are:

    IL-Sen

    IL-Gov

    IL-LG

    AL-LG

    WI-ST

    IA-SS

    VT-SA

    OH-SS

    SC-SE

    I think this is a good result for my prediction. I’m happy cause of it. My numbers work better as example than the numbers of Nate Silver where he has results (Senate, Governor and the majority of LG).

    And I think the results in this four groups are not the bests, but well, are not as bad in the bluest states. In the red states, J Manchin and M Beeve are the alone democrats what can defeat to their republican challenger in a statewide election (the republicans have not candidate for AR-AG, AR-ST and AR-SA).

    For the House, my numbers work worse. The balance between the seats was not bad. I give low margins to the big majority of the races where my numbers fail. But I must improve this.

    When I give my first indications about the firewall for the last days, some people get surprised of see in my lists seats like TX-27 or VA-11, but something was right in my numbers.

    My mistakes for the house come in the majority of cases from R+ districts. Here is a relation between the big majority of the offices where I fail. And that despite I use the same numbers for all the races of all the group of offices.

    I think the attacks of the last days against Pelosi, Obama and the democratic agenda can fire back against all these candidates, many times the most conservative. Maybe many of they go too far turning off part of their democratic basis. J Marshall can be a good example

    And I suspect that get out the last numbers because the house has less number of polls for every seat. Just GA-08 has many polls in the last days what show his decreasing prospects. But the polls change with less speed for other seats.

    It is difficult for me to find other reason for this difference between my results for the house and for the other offices.  

    By what margin will Bob Shamansky win?

    View Results

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    WA-09: AP Calls Race for Smith (D); WA-02: Larsen Takes First Lead

    Via Taniel, some good news: The AP has called WA-09 for Dem Rep. Adam Smith, over Republican Dick Muri. Local media called this one yesterday (see here and here), but I guess the AP wanted to be cautious. Also, I’m the millionth person to say this, but Washington really needs to switch to an Oregon-style in-by-election-day voting system, not the postmarked-by-election-day regime they currently have.

    Also from Taniel:

    Rep. Rick Larsen just inched into his first lead in WA-2, albeit a narrow one: 397 votes! (30% of ballots remain to be counted.)

    NY-25: Buerkle Takes the Lead

    The losses may not be over:

    With the recent update of election results from Wayne County, it appears Republican Ann Marie Buerkle has edged ahead of Democrat Dan Maffei in the race for the 25th District Congressional Seat.

    Prior to the release of Wayne County’s preliminary results, Maffei had led Buerkle by about 3,000 votes. Now, Buerkle leads by less than 1,000 votes with roughly 6,000 absentee ballots remaining to be counted.

    Oy. This could take a while, though – absentees aren’t due until November 9th (and military absentees on the 24th). 8,371 absentee ballots have been received so far (out of 11,645 that were mailed out). Sounds like we’ll have to let this one grease for at least a few more days.

    Leadership in the 112th Senate

    With all but a few races called, it’s a good time to take a look at how the leadership is going to take shape in the Senate and House. Yes, the Republicans will now be the majority in the House, but the leadership changes will be more complex than that, with committee chairs and ranking members leaving the House and party caucus leaders seeking to move up or move out. Here’s a first look at the internal politicking we can expect between now and January for the Senate, with the House version to come in a day or two.

    I encourage you to comment on my projections and suggests what Senators you’d like to see in leadership–either now or in the future, after they build some seniority.

    SENATE DEMOCRATS

    The five main positions are:

    Majority Leader: Harry Reid will almost certainly retain his post after his wider-than-expected win in Nevada. There has been some gossip on the internet that Chuck Schumer will make a run against Reid, but I doubt that. Ambitious as Schumer is, he also seems like a team player and won’t want to burn bridges with any fellow Democratic Senators.

    Majority Whip and Conference Vice Chairman: Dick Durbin and Chuck Schumer. These two might have been quietly happy if Sharron Angle had defeated Reid, but it looks like they’ll hold their positions for another two years.

    DSCC Chair: This seat is open because Bob Menendez is up for re-election in 2012, and he probably would have been challenged anyway after a disappointing tenure at the DSCC helm. Potential replacements such as Debbie Stabenow and Amy Klobuchar are out because they are up for re-election too. We could see Barbara Boxer try to move up, or this could be a chance to bring a new face into the leadership (one of the Udalls, perhaps?) Feel free to suggest someone in the comments!

    Policy Committee Chair: Vacated by Byron Dorgan, this is the perfect spot for a wonkish, reasonably liberal Democrat who is not widely known but is looking to move up in leadership. Ron Wyden, Mark Udall, Sherrod Brown, Sheldon Whitehouse, and Mark Warner would all make sense, and I’m sure there are plenty of others who merit consideration.

    The Democratic leadership also has several lower-ranking positions that may be in flux this year. Conference Secretary Patty Murray is likely to be back, as will Outreach Chair Jeff Bingaman and Steering Chair Debbie Stabenow. The aforementioned Boxer will retain her job as Chief Deputy Whip unless she decides to move up to something else, and Tom Carper and Bill Nelson should remain as Deputy Whips. However, there will be one Whip spot open, as Russ Feingold has been defeated. Finally, there will be a newRural Outreach Chair now that Blanche Lincoln is heading home, and Democrats have a slew of options here, ranging from fellow Arkansawyer Mark Pryor to stalwart Tim Johnson to a newer option like Jon Tester or Tom Udall.



    SENATE REPUBLICANS

    Actually, there is barely any action to discuss here. Mitch McConnell, Jon Kyl, Lamar Alexander, and John Barrasso should retain their positions as Minority Leader, Minority Whip, Conference Chairman, and Conference Vice Chair. John Thune may make a presidential run, but until then, he will be Policy Committee Chairman, and Republicans will probably invite John Cornyn to return as NRSC Chair unless he is worn out from this year or challenges one of the higher-ranking leaders. Bob Bennett will vacate the position of Counselor to the Minority Leader, but this appears to be a non-permanent position anyway. McConnell may use this vacancy to bring Lisa Murkowski back into the fold if she is indeed certified as the winner in Alaska, as she lost her leadership position to Barrasso when she decided to go ahead with her write-in bid. Jim Risch, Mike Crapo, and Mike Johanns are all Senators who could move up if one of these positions is open.

    SENATE COMMITTEES

    The Senate has 17 committees (plus a few special “select committees”), 10 of which should see no change in Chair or Ranking Minority Member. These are: Appropriations (Inouye/Cochran), Armed Services (Levin/McCain), Commerce (Rockefeller/Hutchison), Energy (Bingaman/Murkowski), Environment (Boxer/Inhofe), Finance (Baucus/Grassley), Foreign Relations (Kerry/Lugar), Homeland Security (Lieberman/Collins), Small Business (Landrieu/Snowe), and Veterans Affairs (Akaka/Burr.)

    Agriculture: Another spot vacated by Blanche Lincoln. Tom Harkin is next in seniority, but he gave up the chairmanship here to take over HELP following the death of Ted Kennedy. Patrick Leahy, Kent Conrad, and Max Baucus all passed up the Agriculture gavel as well following Harkin’s departure, choosing to remain chairmen of their present committees. That means that fifth-ranked Debbie Stabenow of Michigan is likely to become the next chairwoman of Agriculture, which should aid her with her 2012 re-election bid. For the Republicans, Saxby Chambliss will remain as RM.

    Banking: Chris Dodd has retired, opening up this chairmanship for the more moderate Tim Johnson of South Dakota. The ranking Republican is Richard Shelby.

    Budget: All the fun is on the Republican side here, as Kent Conrad will remain chairman. After the retiring Judd Gregg, Chuck Grassley is the most senior GOPer, but he is almost certain to remain RM of the Finance Committee. Mike Enzi, RM of HELP, may jump to Budget, but that’s not likely either. The same goes for Jeff Sessions, who ranks on Judiciary. Skip the departing Jim Bunning, and the hot potato passes to Mike Crapo of Idaho, who is looking likely to make the surprising jump from #6 to Ranking Member.

    HELP: That’s Senate-speak for Health, Education, Labor, and Pensions, and this is only relevant if Tom Harkin grows nostalgic for Agriculture, or if Mike Enzi bolts for Budget. The next Senators in line are Barbara Milkulski and Lamar Alexander, and this would be the first opportunity for either.

    Judiciary: Again, only relevant if Jeff Sessions wants Budget. Orrin Hatch is next but he doesn’t seem to want the position anymore (his seniority outranks Sessions’), and once again Chuck Grassley is unlikely to move (I can see why Iowa keeps this guy around….he’s everywhere!) Jon Kyl would be next, and then Lindsey Graham if the Minority Whip is otherwise occupied. Oh yeah, Chairman Pat Leahy isn’t going anywhere.

    Rules and Administration: First things first: the chairman is Chuck Schumer. Now, ready for some fun? Bob Bennett is out, and (in order of seniority) Mitch McConnell is the floor leader, Thad Cochran is on Appropriations, Kay Bailey Hutchison is on Commerce, and Saxby Chambliss is on Agriculture. Next is Lamar Alexander, who would fit unless he takes over HELP, and after him is John Ensign, who seems to be a poor fit given his misconduct. That means that, under a perfect storm, Pat Roberts could rise from the most junior Republican to ranking member!

    Indian Affairs: This is an oft-overlooked committee that is nonetheless very important to any Senator looking to win re-election in a Native-heavy state. With Byron Dorgan retiring, and Inouye, Akaka, Conrad, and Johnson unlikely to give up their chairmanships of Appropriations, Veterans Affairs, Budget, or Banking for a less powerful post, it looks like Maria Cantwell will be the new chairwoman. Jon Tester, who ranks just below Cantwell, has a much higher Native population in his home state, but I doubt he’ll be able to talk Cantwell out of the gavel.

    House version to follow!

    By what margin will Bob Shamansky win?

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