Month: November 2010

I guess it’s time to start up a new House open seat watch, huh?

NewsChannel 15 political analyst and Republican Allen County Recorder John McGauley says Congressman Mike Pence will run for Indiana governor in 2012.

McGauley said that information came straight from people who work for Pence .

“He’s running for governor. He’s laying the groundwork with all these bus tours that he’s doing; supporting legislative candidates [in Indiana]. And he’s even out there right now recruiting county coordinators for a governor’s race,” said McGauley.

Pence is staying mum for now, but it sure looks like he may be the man to challenge Evan Bayh in two years.

He didn’t have a whole lotta people in his corner, but it looks like Raul Grijalva had enough to survive last night’s slaughter:

Democrat Raul Grijalva claimed victory in Arizona’s District 7 congressional race Wednesday, leaving Republicans with a gain of two seats in the state’s delegation.

A spokesman for Grijalva said the congressman had decided he was the winner in the southwestern Arizona district, although a number of mail-in and provisional ballots remained to be counted.

Right now, with 99.6% reporting, Grijalva leads Republican Ruth McClung by 3,586 votes, for a percentage spread of 49-46. I note that some folks raised their eyebrows when we shot this race straight from Safe D to the Tossup column. I hope you understand where we were coming from now!

• CO-Sen: This isn’t an official call from the AP or CNN, but the Denver Post (who you would think would know their state well enough to know the score) has decided that Michael Bennet is the victor in Colorado. No couching, as their article is titled “Bennet Wins in Senate Race;” you can’t lay it on the line any more than that. Their rationale: he leads by 7,000 votes with 30,000 remaining to be counted in dirty hippie stronghold Boulder County.

• WA-Sen: While the Seattle Times doesn’t sound as fully confident as the Denver Post, they also make it sound like Patty Murray is on her way to reelection. Their rationale: more than one-third of the uncounted votes statewide are found in King County, which of course is the state’s Democratic base and where she’s getting 62% currently.

• WI-Sen?: Pundits (or at least William Kristol, known for his wishful thinking) seem to be taking the wrong message from this Russ Feingold line at the end of his concession speech last night: “It’s on to our next adventure. It’s on to 2012! Forward!” To them, that means that Feingold will be mounting a quixotic primary challenge to Barack Obama. Um, we’re likely to see a Herb Kohl retirement in 2012. Maybe Feingold is likely to run for the other Wisconsin Senate seat? (Taking a page from Washington’s Slade Gorton, who lost in 1986 and resurfaced in 1988. Any other Senators anyone out there can think of who did that?)

• MN-Gov: It must seem like Groundhog Day for Minnesotans, who are poised for another recount nightmare as the election lawyers descend like locusts. With only 19 precincts remaining to count, Mark Dayton’s lead over Tom Emmer is 0.43%, which is below the 0.5% bar where an automatic recount is triggered.

• Polltopia: So is the cycle where bullshit finally gets called on Rasmussen? Nate Silver made the case last night, observing that of the 100 polls released in the final 21 days of the campaign, 70-75% overstated Republican support, off by an average 3-4 points. Taegan Goddard also chips in singling out its final HI-Sen poll, which was off by only 38 points on the final margin of victory for Dan Inouye.

• Trivia: Would you believe that the Democratic freshman class is only in the single digits? There are 9 freshmen: Terri Sewell (AL-07), Karen Bass (CA-33), John Carney (DE-AL), Frederica Wilson (FL-17), Colleen Hanabusa (HI-01), Cedric Richmond (LA-02), Bill Keating (MA-10), Hansen Clarke (MI-13), and David Cicilline (RI-01). Remarkably, only two of them are straight white guys!

• CA-11: This race has had some ups and downs today: The Stockton Record (the local, well, paper of record) was initially running a story stating that Jerry McNerney had won his race, after having trailed all of last night to David Harmer. They’ve pulled back on that, merely saying it’s “too close to call,” but the hard data is that McNerney now has a 121-vote lead over Harmer, with 100% of precincts reporting. I’d imagine this one will be heading for a recount!

From skinny-tie ringleader Crisitunity: Via the apparently very busy press department at the DGA, Democrats are apparently declaring victory in Connecticut. That makes Dan Malloy the first Dem governor in the Nutmeg State in over 20 years. (I’m especially pleased with that one, although my experience with Connecticut is pretty much limited to, as Jon Stewart put it last night, it being “the state you take the train through on your way to actual states.”)

Herein I will project the remaining uncalled races without commenting on my current apoplexy, or anyone else’s.  Actually quite pleased with the Senate and Governor picture.  Let’s not talk about that other thing.

SENATE: R+6

Called Republican Pickups (6): AR, IL, IN, ND, PA, WI

Uncalled Republican Holds (1):

AK – Murkowski up 7% with 100% in.  AK moved formal write-in ballot counting up to next week.

GOVERNORS: R+5

Called Democratic Pickups (3): CA, HI, VT

Called Republican Pickups (11): IA, KS, ME, MI, NM, OH, OK, PA, TN, WI, WY

Called Independent Pickups(1): RI

Uncalled Democratic Pickups (2):

CT – Malloy now up 6,000 votes with 98% in. SoS says final tally is today.

MN – Dayton up 9,000 votes with 100% in.  Final canvass on November 23.

HOUSE – R+63

Called Democratic Pickups (3): DE-AL, HI-01, LA-02

Called Republican Pickups (63): AL-02, AR-01, AR-02, AZ-01, AZ-05, CO-03, CO-04, FL-02, FL-08, FL-22, FL-24, GA-08, ID-01, IL-11, IL-14, IL-17, IN-08, IN-09, KS-03, LA-03, MD-01, MI-01, MI-07, MN-08, MO-04, MS-01, MS-04, NC-02, ND-AL, NH-01, NH-02, NJ-03, NM-02, NV-03, NY-13, NY-19, NY-20, NY-24, NY-29, OH-01, OH-06, OH-15, OH-16, OH-18, PA-03, PA-07, PA-08, PA-10, PA-11, SC-05, SD-AL, TN-04, TN-06, TN-08, TX-17, TX-23, VA-02, VA-05, VA-09, WA-03, WI-07, WI-08, WV-01

Uncalled Republican Pickups (3):

IL-08 – Walsh up 550 votes with 100% in.  Absentees left to count.

NY-25 – Buerkle up 650 votes with 100% in.  Absentees left to count.

TX-27 – Farenthold up 800 votes with 100% in.  Absentees left to count.

Uncalled Democratic Holds (6):

AZ-08 – Giffords up 3,000 votes wih 100% in.  Apparently “early votes” still being counted.

CA-11 – McNerney up 121 votes with 100% in.  Absentees left to count.

CA-20 – Vidak up 1,700 votes with 100% in.  However, tens of thousands of absentees outstanding, almost all in Costa strongholds.

KY-06 – Chandler up 600 votes with 100% in.  He has declared victory.

VA-11 – Connolly up 800 votes with 100% in. Provisionals left to count.

WA-02 – Larsen up 1,450 votes with 80% in.  Lots of votes remain all over the district.  Tough call, but I’ll go with Larsen since he’s up.

Looks like we’re still combing through the stems and seeds. Feel free to use this thread to sort out the wreckage.

UPDATES:

At least going by press release, we seem to have resolutions in three more gubernatorial races this morning:

Vermont is a Democratic pickup, for Peter Shumlin.

Democrats have conceded in Florida and Maine, meaning victories for Rick Scott and Paul LePage.

In addition, two more House races have been called in favor of the Democrats. Sanford Bishop, whose race was called against him and then uncalled, has now been called the winner in GA-02. And Gary Peters has narrowly survived his race in MI-09.

8:11am: Not sure how all your hangovers are doing this morning, but let’s just say the loss of Jim Oberstar to Chip Cravaack in MN-08, and Walt Minnick to Raul Labrador in ID-01 isn’t helping. This is offset by Colleen Hanabusa‘s victory over Charles Djou in Hawaii. It’s no OJ and greasy breakfast, but I’ll take it.

8:49am: My hungover self (jeffmd here) also missed the good news in Jim Matheson‘s re-election in UT-02, and Loretta Sanchez in CA-47.

Here are the races still outstanding:

For House:

NY-25: 96% reporting, Dan Maffei (D) leads by 2,200 votes.

VA-11: 99% reporting, Gerry Connolly (D) leads by 487.

KY-06: 99% reporting, Ben Chandler (D) leads by 600.

GA-02: 100% reporting, Sanford Bishop (D) had his race uncalled and is leading by 4,800.

MI-09: 90% reporting, Gary Peters (D) leads by 4,600 votes.

IL-08: 98% reporting, Melissa Bean (D) trails by 800 votes.

TX-27: 100% reporting, Solomon Ortiz (D) trails by 800 votes.

AZ-07: 99% reporting, Raul Grijalva (D) leads by 3,600.

AZ-08: 99% reporting, Gabby Giffords (D) leads by 2,500.

CA-11: 99% reporting, Jerry McNerney (D) trails by 23 votes.

CA-20: 100% reporting, Jim Costa (D) trails by 700.

WA-02: 64% reporting, Rick Larsen (D) trails by 1,400.

WA-09: 67% reporting, Adam Smith (D) leads by 9,500.

If these hold, we’ll be out another 5, -65 on the night.

For Senate:

Colorado: Michael Bennet (D) has a 5,000 vote edge, 87% reporting. Outstanding precincts in Boulder (67-29 Bennet), Arapahoe (49-46 Bennet); nothing reported from Chaffee or Hinsdale County. Chaffee voted narrowly for McCain, 49-49 in 2008; Hinsdale only cast 500 votes in 2008.

Washington: Patty Murray (D) leads by 14,000; 62% reporting.

Alaska: Write-ins have 41% of the vote, to Joe Miller’s 34% and Scott McAdams’ 25%.

For Governor:

Maine: Paul LePage (R) leads Eliot Cutler (I) by 6,200 votes with 89% reporting; Libby Mitchell is an utter fail back at 19%.

Connecticut: Dan Malloy (D) trails by about 10,000 votes, 90% reporting.

Vermont: Peter Shumlin (D) leads by 3,100 votes, but is 113 votes short of the 50% majority needed.

Florida: Alex Sink (D) trails by 50,000 votes with 99% reporting.

Minnesota: Mark Dayton (D) leads by 9,200 votes with 99% reporting; indie Tom Horner back at 12%.

Oregon: John Kitzhaber (D) trails by 20,000 votes with 80% reporting.

and maybe, just maybe, the one piece of good news all night:

Illinois: I have no idea where Pat Quinn’s bag of tricks comes from, but miraculously, he’s leading by 8,300 votes with 75 Cook County precincts outstanding. 27 of them are in Suburban Cook County with the other 48 in the City of Chicago.

Better yet, 35 of the outstanding precincts overlap the black-majority 1st, 2nd, and 7th CDs, while another 6 overlap the Hispanic-majority 4th, with another 19 in the strongly Democratic 5th and 9th CDs on the North Side. Who woulda thunk it, Pat Quinn would be the one underdog to pull it out.

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3:33am: PS: feel free to keep using this thread as an open thread tomorrow morning; we probably won’t have any posts out of the gate early tomorrow.

3:25am: OK, I strongly suspect we aren’t going to see any more calls tonight. With that, SSP will call it a night, and we’ll sweep up more pieces in the morning. A bad night, at least on the House front, to be sure… but we’ll be right back at it tomorrow, looking at what we can pick off in 2012. And remember… if the last two years were any indication… being on offense (and having the power of righteous indignation behind you, instead of having to explain away your own party’s shortcomings) is just plain more fun.

3:14am: I wonder if we can go 2 for 2 on the remaining tossup seats in Arizona? Raul Grijalva’s up 48-46 in AZ-07 (90% in), while Gabby Gifford’s up 49-47 in AZ-08 (85% in).

3:09am: Up to 58% reporting in Alaska, where it’s still late evening. Lisa Murkowski appears to be holding on: 39 to 36 for Joe Miller and 24 for Scott McAdams. The real question will be whether all those thousands of write-ins survive the scrutiny process.

3:06am: Ooops, look like we never mentioned these calls from earlier. Joe Heck squeaked by Dina Titus in NV-03, 48-47, while Scott Tipton also had a narrow victory over John Salazar in CO-03, 49-47.

2:55am: So what’s left outstanding in the House? We’re only at 1% reporting in HI-01 according to CNN, so don’t look for an answer there, but currently Colleen Hanabusa leads GOP incumbent Charles Djou 54-46, so this may turn into our third pickup (especially given strong top-of-ticket support from Neil Abercrombie). There are still a few districts left where the GOP may be on track for a pickup, especially ID-01, where Walt Minnick trails 50-42, with 50% reporting. There are also super-small GOP leads in CA-11, TX-27, WA-02, and, unbelievably, IL-08, where Melissa Bean is down a few hundred votes to the unheralded Joe Walsh.

2:48am: Ah, wait, there are still three other gubernatorial races. IL-Gov is super-close: 46-46 with Pat Quinn slightly up, with 93% in, but with Cook County a sizable part of the remainder. He might yet pull this out. In Minnesota, Mark Dayton’s only up 44-43-12 now with 87% reporting, but we’re also waiting on a lot of votes out of Duluth, which is good for Dems (also good for James Oberstar, who’s in a dead heat in MN-08 still). In OR-Gov, Chris Dudley leads 50-48 over John Kitzhaber; if this is like the 2008 Senate race, Multnomah Co. (Portland) tends to trickle in later, so again, we might pull this out although the suburban numbers (from Washington and Clackamas Cos.) aren’t very encouraging.

2:45am: Good news in a few tight-as-a-tick House races. In OR-05, Kurt Schrader beats Scott Bruun, 51-46. And in UT-02, things finally got called for Scott Jim Matheson, where Morgan Philpot overperformed the polls; Matheson leads 51-45.

2:40am: A whole bunch of gubernatorial races are up for grabs still. The biggest prize left is FL-Gov, where Rick Scott leads Alex Sink 49-48, with 89% reporting (where it’s been stalled for many hours, so resolution tonight looks unlikely). With most of the remaining precincts in the Miami metro area (Dade, Broward, and Palm Beach Cos.), she might be able to make that up though. Ditto CT-Gov, where Dan Malloy trails 51-48 with 78% reporting, but where the remaining votes seem mostly urban (like Bridgeport). This too will go down to the wire. The smaller New England states also have barnburners: VT-Gov is Peter Shumlin (D) over Brian Dubie 49-48 with 76% reporting, while in ME-Gov, Paul LePage (R) leads center-left indie Eliot Cutler 38-37 with 84% reporting (with Dem Libby Mitchell at a woeful 19).

2:33am: At this point, it’s up to the west coast crew (i.e. me) to sweep up the mess. Three Senate races remain outstanding. WA-Sen, as per usual Washington operating procedure, they reported about half of all votes and then shut it down for the night (seeing as how many valid ballots are still in the mail). Patty Murray leads Dino Rossi 51-49, which is about where I expect the race to stay, with 54% reporting. CNN is telling me that Ken Buck leads CO-Sen 48-47 with 80% reporting, but given the various ping-ponging of the numbers what with the screwed-up Boulder numbers, I have no idea. Finally, AK-Sen is out there, and I doubt we’ll know for weeks, but for now, with 38% reporting, it’s write-in (including Lisa Murkowski) 39, Joe Miller 35, Scott McAdams 25.

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One last thread for the night!

RESULTS: CNN | Politico

1:57: In other news, it looks like the GOP flipped at least 15 state legislative chambers.

1:54: TX-23 called for Quico Canseco (R).

1:50: NY-01 called for Tim Bishop.

1:49: Good news: NM-01 called for Dem Martin Heinrich. Also, it looks like the outstanding precincts in MI-09 are Dem-friendly.

1:48: The AP has called HI-Gov for Neil Abercrombie, in what looks like a big, 20-point win. Hopefully this bodes well for Colleen Hanabusa’s hopes in HI-01.

1:45: Well, well, well. It wouldn’t be an election night without some muffed numbers, now would it? The AP has un-called GA-02, and apparently Rep. Sanford Bishop is up by about 4,500 votes.

1:33: More:

51-45 tipton in CO-03, 76%; 50-46 Matheson in UT-02, 55%; 49-46 Grijalva, AZ-07, 68%; 49-47 Giffords, AZ-08, 59%; Heck by 1800 votes in NV-03, 25% in; ID-01, Minnick down 42-51, 24%; 51-46 Schrader, 82%, OR-05

1:30: Outstanding house races:

NY-01: 51-49 Bishop, 86%; NY-25: 51-49 Maffei, 94%; VA-11: Connolly by 500, 99%; Chandler by 600 in ky-06, 99%; 50-47 Peters in MI-09, 71%; Bean down 49-48 IL-08, 98%; Carnahan up 49-47 in MO-03, 99%; 48-47 Oberstar in MN-08, 45%; Farenthold by 800 votes in TX-27, 100%; 50-44 Quico in TX-23, 89%; 51.5-48.5 Heinrich in NM-01, 95%

1:25: Some early nums from Alaska: Write-ins 40, Miller 34, McAdams 25, with 26% reporting.

1:22: And in CA-18, Dennis Cardoza (D) defeats Mike Berryhill.

1:21: At least in WA-01, Jay Inslee hangs on.

1:19: In AZ-05, David Schweikert defeats Rep. Harry Mitchell.

1:12: Doug Hoffman’s cat fud from beyond the grave saves Bill Owens, who defeats Matt Doheney in NY-23.

1:08: Michael Bennet back on top in CO-Sen, 48-47 with 72% in. Heard some reports that the AP muffed the numbers out of Dem-friendly Boulder.

1:02: Bitter news, herb lovers: California’s Prop 19 won’t pass. No ganja break here – though as Ben said, when marijuana is decriminalized, only decriminals will have marijuana.

1:00am: Kristi Noem beats Stephanie Herseth Sandlin in SD-AL, which means James dreamed the future. WI-03 called for Ron Kind. NY-04 called for Carolyn McCarthy.

12:56am: Peter DeFazio (D) wins in OR-04.

12:49am: The Devil Wears Prada. Alternately, Ken Buck is now leading by 3% in Colorado. Additionally, Bobby Bright loses to Martha Roby (R) in AL-02.

12:44am: Suzan DelBene concedes to Dave Reichert in WA-08. Dems at two pickups for the night; Seals fail; Ami Bera trailing 43-49 to Dan Lungren (R) in CA-03.

12:42am: Harry Reid wins. Nuff said.

12:40am: Mike Oliverio (D) probably thought he’d get a free pass to Congress after beating Alan Mollohan, but nope, he loses to David McKinley in WV-01.

12:38am: Not a good night for the Carnahans; Russ is hanging on by 500 votes in MO-03 with 97% reporting.

12:36am: Maurice Hinchey (D) survives in NY-22, while across the country, Jaime Herrera (R) takes Brian Baird’s open WA-03 for the Rs.

12:35am: Nathan Deal (R) defeats Roy Barnes for GA-Gov.

12:33am: In a surprise, Michael McMahon loses to Mike Grimm in NY-13.

12:33am: Brock Landers er…Ben Quayle eats potatoe. And defeats Jon Hulburd for AZ-03.

12:32am: John Dingell declared the winner in MI-15.

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Ow.

RESULTS: CNN | Politico

12:30am: New party…over here.

12:27am: Bob Dold! (R) wins IL-10.

12:25am: David Rivera (R) wins FL-25.

12:21am: Senator Mark Kirk. Get used to it. (Also get used to Rep. Sean Duffy while you’re at it.)

12:19am: About GA-02… that was called for Mike Keown (R), but it may have to be un-called. Sanford Bishop actually has a very small lead now.

12:18am: Two gubernatorial calls for the GOP, both pickups. John Kasich has apparently won in Ohio, and Susana Martinez wins in New Mexico. Also, two House pickups in Arkansas (no surprises though): Rick Crawford in AR-01 and Tim Griffin in AR-02.

12:12am: Assorted bad news in the House, though. Chris Gibson is the victor in NY-20, beating Scott Murphy. Steve Chabot is back for more; he finally dispatched Steve Driehaus in OH-01. Tim Walberg is also back, beating Mark Schauer in MI-07. Finally, rogue dentist Paul Gosar defeats Anne Kirkpatrick in AZ-01. Dem holds are called in WA-06 (Norm Dicks) and MI-05 (Dale Kildee) though.

12:10am: Sorry about the clogged server, folks. The big news: CNN calls “the Dems hold the Senate.” I guess their call in California is enough to feel confident that nothing weird else might happen (at least nothing that doesn’t involve Joe Lieberman). Plus, Patty Murray is up (51-49) but she’s actually underperforming both Harry Reid and Michael Bennet, at least for the time being.

12:03am: His name is Governor Jerry Brown! His aura smiles and never frowns! (He will probably not be president.) CA-Gov has been called, for Moonbeam 2.0.

11:57pm: Per a DGA press release, it sounds like they’re treating Linc Chafee as the winner. That’s good enough for us.

11:55pm: Not the one, and not having fun: John Hall loses to Nan Hayworth (R) in NY-19.

11:54pm: Another Dem hold: MN-07 for Collin Peterson.

11:52pm: Calls in California and Pennsylvania for Barbara Boxer and Pat Toomey.

11:51pm: A few Dem holds: Mark Critz wins PA-12, while the AP calls CT-05 for Chris Murphy. Ben Lujan also wins NM-03.

11:48pm: Richard Hanna defeats NY-24 Dem incumbent Mike Arcuri. Charlie Bass (R) wins NH-02, and David Wu (D) holds OR-01.

11:44pm: Another Dem incumbent on the critical list is WI-03’s Ron Kind, who’s only leading Dan Kapanke by 49-48 with 58% in.

11:42pm: Two more calls: In MO-04, Vicki Hartzler defeats longtime Dem Rep. Ike Skelton. In MN-01, Dem Rep. Tim Walz wins.

11:40pm: Farewell to Handsome Harry Teague. Say hello again to Republican Steve Pearce in NM-02.

11:37pm: Well, this is a bit of a surprise, given how two-bit her campaign was… Renee Ellmers knocks off Dem Rep. Bobby Etheridge in NC-02.

11:34pm: Bill Keating holds onto MA-10 for Team Blue.

11:32pm: Guh? Harry Reid is leading by 53-43 with 11% reporting?

11:31pm: Legendary Dem Rep. Gene Taylor gets greased in MS-04. Say hello to GOP Rep-elect Steve Palazzo.

11:29pm: Bruce Braley lives to continue the fight in IA-01.

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Wow, utter devastation!

RESULTS: CNN | Politico

11:31: Time for some fresh thread.

11:26: Dave Loebsack hangs on in IA-02.

11:24: NY-29 called for Tom Reed, an expected R pickup. PA-06 called for Jim Gerlach – hope we see Manan Trivedi again, though.

11:23: In TX-27, Blake Farenthold is up by 77 votes with 88% reporting. Also, the results in New York are really crappy.

11:20: More craptastic news: In SC-05, Mick Mulvaney beats John Spratt.

11:19: In WA-03, Jamie Herrera is up big over Denny Heck, 57-43 (18%).

11:17: With 22% reporting, John Kitzhaber has a 57-41 lead in OR-Gov.

11:14: Michele Bachmann unsurprisingly wins in MN-06. Tight race in AL-02.

11:13: OH-12 called for Pat Tiberi. AR-02 called for Tim Griffin, so another GOP pickup.

11:11: A little bit of good news out of PA: PA-12 called for Mark Criz and PA-04 called for Jason Altmire.

11:08: PA-15 called for Charlie Dent, NY-27 called for Brian Higgins, KS-04 called for Mike Pompeo (wouldn’t be surprised if he gets primaried next cycle), AR-04 called for Blue Dog King Mike Ross, and in some very bad news, WI-08 called for roofer Reid Ribble, who beats Dem Rep. Steve Kagen.

11:06: Another shitty loss: Rick Berg beats Earl Pomeroy in ND-AL.

11:04: Kilroy Was Here. Steve Stivers beats Mary Jo Kilroy in OH-15.

11:04: Believe it: Mike Keown beats Rep. Sanford Bishop in GA-02.

11:03: Debbie Halvorson loses to Adam Kinzinger in IL-11. Nikki Haley wins in SC-Gov, but hopefully some shine is off her halo after a narrow victory. (DGA, where were you?)

11:01: CO-04 called for Corey Gardner (R). Hate to see Bill Foster lose in IL-14, but he goes down to Randy Hultgren. Sucks.

10:59: TX-25 called for Lloyd Doggett. Melissa Bean is losing in IL-08 and Bob Dold has a narrow lead in IL-10. Talk about sucky.

10:58: KS-03 called for Kevin Yoder. IA-03 called for Leonard Boswell. PA-07 called for Pat Meehan, so another GOP pickup.

10:55: Not terribly surprising: Teabagger Ron Johnson beats Russ Feingold in WI-Sen.

10:54: Just horrible: Patrick Murphy loses in PA-08 to Mike Fitzpatrick. Also, WI-Gov called for GOPer Scott Walker. And CT-04 apparently called for Dem Jim Himes, though the reported numbers are whack.

10:52: In PA-17, Tim Holden (D) wins. Emanuel Cleaver in MO-05 had an unexpectedly close race but hangs on.

10:51: Fuckity – Jim Renacci beats John Boccieri in OH-16.

10:50: Dems lead in MN-07 (Peterson 53-41) and MN-08 (58-38 Oberstar).

10:49: Republican Bill Johnson defeats Dem Charlie Wilson in OH-06.

10:44: NY-21 and 22 appear to be okay, but the rest of upstate… NY-23: Owens 48, Doheny 45 (9%); NY-24: Hanna 53, Arcuri 47 (16%); NY-25: Buerkle 51-49 (20%).

10:43: Some fugly numbers out of NY:NY-19: Hayworth 61-39 (10%); NY-20: Gibson 58-42 (10%).

10:41: In NY-09, Anthony Weiner (a late add to our big board) wins.

10:39: Ben Chandler is declaring victory in KY-06, but we may be headed to a recount there. NM-Gov is called for Susana Martinez (R).

10:38: MO-Sen called for Roy Blunt. Looks like a huge blowout.

10:37: MA-06 called for John Tierney.

10:36: SC-02 called for Joe Wilson (but note unimpressive margin). NE-02 called for Lee Terry. MA-05 called for Niki Tsongas.

10:34: PA-10: Tom Marino beats Chris Carney; PA-11: Lou Barletta beats Paul Kanjorski; MS-01: Alan Nunnelee beats Travis Childers, someone SSP supported big-time during the 2008 special election.

10:31: Some results from Louisiana: Joe Cao loses in LA-02 to Cedric Richmond, so it’s a Dem pickup, while Jeff Landry picks up LA-03 for the Republicans. In GA-12, John Barrow hangs on.

10:30: A DGA press release congratulates John Hickenlooper in CO-Gov, and that’s good enough for us.

10:28: RI-01, David Cicilline (the Dem) wins the open seat. In IL-17, sophomore Phil Hare (who didn’t even have an opponent last cycle) loses to Bobby Schilling (R).

10:27: In NJ-03, John Adler concedes. Better news in NJ-06, where Frank Pallone survives.

10:25: Thank god: Rush Holt is called the victor in NJ-12. Sadly, Zack Space loses in OH-18. Larry Kissell survives in NC-08.

10:24: Frank Kratovil loses in MD-01, while Mike Michaud (ME-02) and Mike McIntyre (NC-07) both survive.

10:23: Leads for David Rivera and Allen West down in Florida, for Scott Keown in GA-02.

10:22: Crap: PA-Gov called for Republican Tom Corbett. Not exactly surprising.

10:22: 19% in in ME, and Cutler’s still leading. Up 39-32-22.

10:20: This is barfy: Hultgren up 53-44 for in IL-14. And Melissa Bean is up just 50-47 with two thirds in, against what had seemed like a totally imploded Walsh campaign.

10:19: In IL-17, Bobby Schilling leads Phil Hare 54-42 with 60% in.

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Let’s get rolling.

RESULTS: CNN | Politico