Month: March 2011

(This is cross-posted at Daily Kos)

A couple weeks ago, Kos/PPP polled all the Wisconsin Republicans up for recall and found some very interesting results. However, he did not poll the Dem races up for recall, as well as the statewide upcoming Supreme Court race. In an attempt to rectify this fault, although I’m no Poblano, I decided to try to use multivariate regression to try and model the Wisconsin polling data using information from each district.

Fortunately, the dynamics of the race were much simpler than Clinton vs. Obama 2008, and I found in the end that the polling results could be described by only two variables (which is very nice, as we only had eight data points, so the model shouldn’t be overfitted):

1. Obama: The percentage of the vote Obama received in 2008 (Courtesy of SSP)

2. Incumbency: The number of years the person has been in office (for instance, someone elected in 2008 would have an Incumbency of 2 years.) – Numbers from SSP above.

I also experimented with other variables (which I discarded in the end as being not statistically significant):

3. Barrett: The percentage of the vote Tom Barrett received in 2010. (Thanks to the Journal-Sentinel)

4. Scandal: A 1/0 value describing the unique circumstances of the aptly named Randy Hopper, and perhaps Mr. Prosser as well.

5. Kerry: Percentage of the vote Kerry received in 2004

I also decided on using percentages rather than margins as there was a better correlation between the two.

In the end, my 2-variable model describes very accurately (within +/- 1.5%) the percentage of voters who would commit to voting for a Democrat in a hypothetical election this year; the spreadsheet is included below.

(The main prediction is highlighted in red. There are other columns to the right which include the additional variables that did not turn out to be significant.)

In short, the vulnerability of each Senator is based mostly off of Obama’s performance in the state in 2008, along with a small bonus from incumbency (about 0.3 points per year in office.) Thus, Hopper is quite vulnerable simply from being a freshman (the scandal had not impacted his poll numbers at that point yet), while Alberta Darling has built up goodwill from being in office for 18 years.

Extrapolating this model for the three Democrats who are considered semi-vulnerable, we find they are mostly safe. The only one who’s really vulnerable is Mr. Holperin, who was first elected by 2.5% in 2008 and represents a seat Obama won by single digits. Note that I give the Democrats negative incumbency so it gives a bonus to the D #s (rather than a penalty), and since the model considers undecideds, anything 48% or up is probably leaning D.

Examining Justice Prosser, who gets elected by the State of Wisconsin as a whole, we find that the seat is probably somewhat leaning D at this point, but I would put the margin of error much higher on this estimate – the race is still developing, and a Supreme Court race is very different from a Senate one.

Maintaining two VRA majority-African-American districts in the metro Detroit area is going to be much more of pain than I originally thought. In the relevant population by CD thread, I breezily commented:

And, on an even more important “not-to-mention” note, the Detroit metro area still has more than enough African Americans for two VRA districts, so consolidating MI-13 and MI-14 isn’t in the cards quite yet.

This is not untrue, but the measures required to get those two districts were a lot more dramatic than I expected. The most recent Census estimates painted a very different picture from the actual Census’s report of massive population loss in Wayne County. And so the new districts are likely to be quite different from what I (and others) had previously imagined.

After the jump, I present two different scenarios for the Detroit area districts. Please feel free to post your own — this is very much more about getting a discussion going than presenting anything close to a polished proposal.

Map 1: Skirting the Line

So far as I can tell, this is the best you can do in terms of maximizing the African American percentages of the two Detroit districts while staying in Wayne County. However, the two Detroit districts are majority African American by total population, but not by VAP. So to the best of my understanding of current case law, this solution is VRA-suspect.

Which is unfortunate for the GOP, because this is reasonably successful map for them. Basically, this is an attempt to cut out both Dingell and Peters, while replacing one of their districts with a new safe Ann Arbor plus Lansing district.

District-by-district, briefly:

Benishek’s MI-01 (Blue) is shored up for the Republicans with the addition of Grand Traverse County. Likewise, Upton’s MI-06 (teal) gains Allegan County. Amash’s MI-03 (purple) holds more or less steady, as does Miller’s MI-10 (pink).

Huizenga’s MI-02 (green) – currently the most Republican district – absorbs a couple of problematic counties from Camp’s MI-04 (red). MI-04 is a little shaky for the Republicans, but I’m not sure how to fix that.

Walberg’s MI-07 (grey) loses Eaton and outer Washtenaw County and picks up Monroe County and the southern tier of Wayne County – I could be wrong, but my instincts tells me that’s a wash. Kildee’s MI-05 (yellow) stretches north to take in more of the Thumb and all of Bay County, which marginally weakens it for the Democrats. MI-09 (cyan) is a new heavily Democratic open seat stretching from Ann Arbor to Lansing.

Then, we move into the Detroit Metro area. Massive population loss in Detroit causes Conyer’s MI-14 (brown) and Clarke’s MI-13 (salmon) to chew up most of the Wayne County portions of Dingell’s dismantled MI-15. They’re 50.6% African American total pop, 49.6% VAP and 50.3% African American total pop, 49.5% VAP respectively. Levin’s MI-12 (cornflower blue) stays more or less the same, picking up the rest of Royal Oak from Peter’s dismantled version of MI-09.

Speaking of which, that’s been bisected between McCotter’s MI-11 (lime) and Rogers’s MI-08 (slate blue). McCotter picks up Peters himself and some of the more Republican parts of the dismantled Ninth. Rogers gets some of the most Democratic parts of the old ninth in West Bloomfield, Pontiac, and Auburn Hills — but he no longer has to worry about Lansing, so he should still be fine.

Map 2: The Problem of Pontiac

Same thing, just zoomed in with locality lines

This one really just focuses on the two Detroit districts. In contrast to the first map, you’re looking at two true majority African-American districts. MI-13 (salmon) is 53.0% African American on both measures. MI-14 (brown) is 56.5% African American by total population, 54.6% African American by VAP.

So far as I can tell, stretching Conyers’s district over into Oakland County like this to pick up Southfield and Oak Park is the only way to get the two Detroit districts to combine into majority-African-American status. Having done that, stretching up to majority-African-American Pontiac seems to make a lot of sense.

Having Clarke’s district stretch through Dingell’s Dearborn to get to majority-African-American Inkster isn’t strictly necessary to get to 50% African American by VAP, but it does help.

Now, if I’m right in my understanding of case law and this basic configuration is necessary to comply with the requirements of the VRA, then state GOP has a problem on its hands. They can’t draw a district for McCotter that (1) he can win and (2) conforms with state redistricting standards.

Michigan state redistricting standards frown on county and locality splitting and are generally understood to prohibit what user rdelbov generally calls a “double-cross” — that is, having Districts X and Y share both Counties A and B. If you look over the current map, you’ll see that interpretation seems to have been followed under the last GOP gerrymander. McCotter’s district is the one allocated Oakland-Wayne split district. If Conyers’s district becomes one, then McCotter’s district, under state redistricting standards, can’t do that any more. But McCotter lives in Wayne County, and he needs those Oakland County Republicans to have a winnnable district.

Now, the potential out here is that, so far as I understand it, the state Supreme Court basically declared the state redistricting standards non-justiciable the last time a suit was filed based on them after the 2000 round of redistricting. So if the GOP wants to ignore them, they probably can.

I drew in sample districts around the two Detroit districts. The Detroit metro area ones more of less work, from a GOP perspective, although some of the non-pictured outstate ones were pretty ugly. But without knowing how to resolve the “double-cross” conundrum, I wasn’t really sure how to proceed.

Wrap-Up

So, which is the better way for the GOP to push the limits of redistricing law? Two only-borderline majority African American districts in Detroit? Or violate (potentially unenforceable) state law and have two districts cross the Oakland-Wayne border? Or do you have a better solution altogether?

All but 5 states now have 2010 data.

Four of the five require Block Groups and will be done in a week-ish: KY, MT, OR, RI.

The last is Alaska, which I’m not planning to do. It presents a unique technical problem, which I don’t want to spend the time on unless there is a huge groundswell of interest.

So, the new states are ME, MA, MI, NH, NY, SC and WV.

Note on CA: some of the voting districts are indeed huge. Example: City of Fremont (pop. 84000+) is a single voting district. I went back and checked the raw files from the Census Bureau and this is indeed the case. When I get the other Block Group states done, I will add block groups for CA, too. I will also add block groups for some New England states. NH really seems to need it, but MA does not seem bad.

Daves Redistricting

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Thanks.

This map is intended to favor Dems as they control both houses and the governor’s office. I tried to avoid any egregious gerrymanders, and I suspect that some of the suburban Chicago districts could be made more favorable. The only really ugly districts are IL5 (Quigley) and IL9 (Schakowsky). IL5 had to take a pretty strained shape to get a voting-age Hispanic plurality, although it still isn’t nearly as bad as the current Hispanic-majority IL4 (Gutierrez). IL9 had to pick up the vacated IL5 precincts that didn’t have enough Hispanics, as IL7 (Davis) has just a 50.1% voting-age black majority and could not pick anything up.  

State map:

Chicago area map:

Notes on districts, with voting-age populations. w = Anglo, b = black, h = Hispanic, a = Asian.

IL1 (blue, Rush): 38.2w-52.1b-7.4h-1.2a. Underpopulated and has to expand to the west. Safe D.

IL2 (green, Jackson): 36.0w-50.8b-11.2h-0.9a. Underpopulated and has to expand to the south to pick up most of Kankakee. The southernmost area is Pembroke, an 85% black semi-rural area which is unusual outside the south. Safe D.

IL3 (purple, Lipinski?): 77.2w-6.1b-8.9h-6.6a. This district has more of the current IL13 (Biggert) than the current IL3, as it really had nowhere else to go. It’s probably competitive. Tossup?

IL4 (red, Gutierrez): 31.3w-6.1b-58.3h-3.6a. One of the ugliest districts in the nation is now one of the cleanest. Safe D.

IL5 (yellow, Quigley): 43.2w-4.8b-44.4h-6.1a. I don’t think it’s possible to draw a second Hispanic-majority district without using really tortured lines. As is I think this proposed district as pushing it as far as “compact” goes, although obviously it isn’t nearly as screwy as the current IL4. Safe D

IL6 (teal, Roskam): 73.3w-3.1b-11.4h-11.1a. It picks up the Palatine and Schaumburg areas, and loses its heavily Hispanic area in the east and some of its western end. It may be slightly more red now, but I know very little about the political leanings of Chicago suburbs. Tilt R?

IL7 (gray, Davis): 31.0w-50.1b-9.8h-7.5a. There probably will not be 3 black-majority districts after 2020. Black plurality, maybe. Safe D.

IL8 (blue-gray, Walsh): 69.2w-6.4b-18.1h-5.1a. Dumps its piece of reddish McHenry county and some Cook suburbs, and picks up Waukegan, much of swingy Kane county, and bluish DeKalb county. This is intended for Melissa Bean to return to DC. Walsh doesn’t live here. Tilt D?

IL9 (toothpaste blue, Schakowsky): 73.1w-6.4b-10.0h-8.7a. Moves south and much more into Chicago proper. Safe D.

IL10 (pink, Dold!): 72.6w-4.1b-8.9h-12.9a. Moves south into IL9’s vacated areas, taking most of the college town of Evanston along with neighboring suburbs that are heavily Asian. This would probably be one of the most Asian districts outside California or Hawaii. The intent is to ensure that Dold! serves one term! Likely D?

IL11 (pea soup green, Kinzinger): 80.1w-5.8b-11.3h-2.0a. Loses some of its eastern end including Kinzinger’s house, picks up northwest Kendall county and some western rural areas. Lean R?

IL12 (light blue, Costello): 80.5w-14.7b-2.4h-1.2a. The St. Louis area district sheds most of its southern end but keeps the college town of Carbondale, and adds Macoupin county and the rest of Madison county. Obama got 57.3% of the two-party vote here. Lean D.

IL13 (pink-gray, Shimkus): 93.5w-3.6b-1.6h-0.5a. Renumbered from IL19. Downstate Republican sink. Safe R.

IL14 (brown-green, Hultgren): 61.4w-5.5b-24.1h-7.9a. Loses most of its western rural areas (which are actually swingy for the most part) and exurbs and picks up the Naperville and Hanover areas. Tossup?

IL15 (orange, Johnson):  80.5w-10.6b-3.0h-4.4a. This is my concept of the “midstate cities swing district” that jsramek mentioned on an earlier Illinois thread. It has Springfield, Decatur, Bloomington-Normal, Champaign, and Danville. Obama got 52.8% of the two-party vote in the 6 counties within the district, although it’s missing some (probably red) rural and exurban areas within these counties. Toss up, but it would likely take a very strong candidate to beat Johnson.

IL16 (garden hose green, Manzullo): 85.9w-2.7b-8.4h-2.0a. The north state Republican “sink”. It picks up the rest of McHenry and loses its western end and the bluest parts of Rockford. Walsh also lives here. Likely R?

IL17 (indigo, Schilling): 82.0w-9.6b-5.7h-1.5a. Moves north from its current fugly-mess configuration to take in purple or blue areas of the state’s northwest, including Peoria and the bluest parts of Rockford. Obama got 58.2% of the two-party vote here without any of Rockford, so his overall share here was probably closer to 60%. Lean D/likely D.

IL18 (yellow, Schock): 94.1w-2.6b-1.9h-0.5a. Mid-state Republican sink. Schock actually lives in IL17 but would probably run here. Likely R/safe R.

Under this map, the Dems would easily hold districts 1, 2, 4, 5, 7, and 9. They should (finally) take 10 and retake 8 and 17, and Costello shouldn’t have too much trouble in 12. Reeps will hold 13, 16, and 18. Then you have 3, 6, 11, 14, and 15 which appear to all be competitive and all of which could conceivably be held by Republicans. Given that 3, 6, 11, and 14 occupy a contiguous block of western and southwestern suburbs, I suspect it would be possible to draw them such that one of them is lean-R or even likely-R and the other 3 are tossup or tilt-D. (I would leave this for someone who knows more about Chicago-area politics.) As is, I would say this is a 10-3-5 map but probably 11-7 or 12-6.

Thoughts? In particular, thoughts about how the Dems might draw the lines in the western and southwestern Chicago suburbs?

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• CA-Sen (PDF): The Field Poll also has approvals and re-elects for Dianne Feinstein. The former stands at 48-33 (more or less in line with her historical averages), while the latter comes in at 46-42 (somewhat below her scores at similar points prior to her previous re-election campaigns). One aside: Is it normal for the Field Poll to go into the field for a two-week period? The dates on this survey are Feb. 28-March 14.

• FL-Sen: God, Mike Haridopolos really is such a joke. He’s now had to amend his financial disclosure forms a third time, because he somehow keeps forgetting to account for all the sources of his income. You have to be pretty rich and disconnected not to remember where you’re getting all your money from. So in other words, Haridopolos is a perfect GOP exemplar. (He claims he didn’t disclose the property in question because his mortgage payments exceed the rent he’s taking in… but ya know, he’s still getting checks in each month!)

• NM-Sen: GOP Lt. Gov. John Sanchez tells Le Fixe that he is “very close” to getting into the Republican Senate primary and will decide “very soon.”

• OH-Sen: Quinnipiac has some numbers out on Sherrod Brown. He has a 43-27 job approval (in January, it was 45-25); a 45-29 lead over Generic R (Jan: 45-33); and almost identical 45-30 re-elects (unchanged). President Obama gets 41-34 over Generic R, but just 45-46 re-elects.

Meanwhile, Dave Catanese caught up with Ken Blackwell, who says he’s intrigued by PPP’s recent smorgasbord poll of the Ohio GOP primary showing him “leading the way” with all of 21% and now plans to take a “serious look” at the race. Hey, thanks a lot, Tom Jensen! No, I really mean it! Ken Blackwell would be entertaining, and he’s also not exactly a very strong candidate. PPP should goad more also-rans into re-thinking their futures.

• VA-Sen, VA-03: Dem Rep. Bobby Scott visited Larry Sabato’s class the other day and said he’s still thinking about running for Senate and will decide by July. Scott also called Obama’s actions in Libya “unconstitutional”… hrm. Anyhow, Blue Virginia also notes that Scott could potentially take advantage of an obscure state law which would allow him to run in two primaries at once, meaning he could, say, run against Tim Kaine in the Senate race but if he gets pounded, could hold on to his House seat.

• MT-Gov: I wonder what the connection is here: very temporary former Florida Sen. George LeMieux is holding a fundraiser for businessman Neil Livingstone in DC next month. Livingstone is one of several Republicans seeking to replace outgoing Gov. Brian Schweitzer next year. I’m really curious to know why LeMieux is taking an interest in this race.

• NH-Gov: I don’t know if Papa Sununu is merely running off his mouth, or if he actually knows something. But he seems to suggest that Dem Gov. John Lynch, already serving a highly unusual fourth two-year term, might seek a fifth next year. He also tosses out a few names for potential Republican challengers: 2010 nominee John Stephen, 2010 Senate primary loser Ovide Lamontagne, state Sen. (and ex-Rep.) Jeb Bradley, and ex-State Sen. Bruce Keogh.

• WA-Gov: Seattle Magazine has a lengthy profile of King County Executive Dow Constantine, whose name you occasionally hear mentioned in the gubernatorial context despite most people’s assumptions that Rep. Jay Inslee has first right of refusal on the Dem nomination. The article mentions unnamed insiders who think that Constantine may a better choice than Inslee (whose district’s center of gravity is in Snohomish County) for beating AG and former King County Councilor Rob McKenna. McKenna-unlike any other possible Republican candidate-is capable of winning over suburban moderates in east King County, the only possible road for a Republican to win statewide. (The 49-year-old Constantine’s gubernatorial timeline might be more appropriately 2020… though he has three times as many constituents as Inslee, so he may have the leverage to cut to the front of the line.) Speaking of McKenna, he’s on Step 2 of his Quasi-Moderate Reboot following his attempted equivocation on HCR repeal: now he’s also distancing himself from the new GOP boogeyman Scott Walker, saying he’d never mess with collective bargaining rights.

• CA-36: It’s looking like Gov. Jerry Brown’s hoped-for statewide special election on ballot proposals to extend certain tax measures may not happen in June after all, which means the race in the 36th could stand all alone-and face even lower turnout than might otherwise have been expected.

• FL-26: We mentioned (thanks to Greg Giroux) Karen Diebel’s unusual FEC filing the other day-she says she plans to run in the non-existent “FL-26.” Now, says Dave Catanese, NRCC chair Pete Sessions was seen squiring Diebel around DC, taking her to a meeting of House Republicans, and raising some eyebrows in the process, seeing as she lost to now-Rep. Sandy Adams in the FL-24 GOP primary last year. Diebel must be hoping that a new Orlando-based district carves out some room for her.

• MN-06: If god really loved us, Michele Bachmann would run for pretzeldent. And now she’s saying it just might happen!

• Ohio Init.: Here’s what’s going to happen: the Republicans who are busy destroying themselves in Ohio will pass SB5, a bill designed to strip away collective bargaining rights from union members. Then unions and their supporters will get a referendum on SB5 placed on the ballot. If polls and history (see 1958) are any guide, SB5 will get overturned. Republicans, of course, don’t want that to happen, and at least some of them think they stand a better chance if the measure goes up for a vote this November, rather than next November. For that to happen, Gov. John Kasich needs to sign SB5 into law by April 6th. But the Republican Speaker of the House isn’t so sure 2011 will be better for the GOP than 2012, and I’m not sure I disagree with him.

• Suffolk Co. Exec.: This sure is an unusual way to end a criminal investigation-and a political career. Steve Levy said he won’t seek re-election to his current post… and he’s turning over his $4 million warchest to the Suffolk Co. DA’s office, which had been probing him for campaign finance violations. Of course, Levy’s political suicide really began in earnest last year, when the one-time Democrat tried to change parties to run for the GOP nomination for governor… only to get dinged at the Republican convention. Quite the capper to an ignominious career best known for immigrant-bashing.

• Wisconsin Recall: Democrats now say they have “over fifty percent of the number of petitions they need to recall eight Republican state senators, although they are not over the fifty percent threshold in every district.”

Meanwhile, the Randy Hopper mistress story keeps getting better. It now looks as though his paramour managed to avoid the formal recruitment process that normal people went through in order to land state jobs during the transition period after Gov. Scott Walker was elected. Despite that, she scored a gig, and a pay raise.

• WI Sup. Ct.: The Capital Times has a detailed profile of the Wisconsin Supreme Court race, noting in particular the increased enthusiasm for getting rid of David Prosser in light of Scott Walker’s evildoing. Prosser, by the way, continues to blame his fellow women justices for the lack of civility on the court, now claiming that they’ve “ganged up” against him. Remember this, is the guy who screamed at the Chief Justice that she was a “bitch” and he’d “destroy” her.

• Models: Nate Silver critiques Harry Enten’s house forecasting model that we mentioned here the other day, saying that Enten has too many variables and not enough data sets. Enten responds here.

• WATN?: We mentioned the Idaho GOP’s move to a close primary system a little while back, but I’m linking this article because I was unaware that 2008 ID-01 Dem nominee Larry Grant is now the chair of the Idaho Democratic Party. Grant lost to the infamous Bill Sali in 2006 by a relatively tight 50-45 margin.

Redistricting Roundup:

• Arkansas: One place where, seemingly against all odds, Dems control the redistricting trifecta is Arkansas. The only Democrat left in the House delegation is Blue Dog d-bag Mike Ross, and he’d apparently worked out a map with his colleagues in the legislature that would protect his 4th CD seat, but also continue to make the 1st and 2nd CDs (now held by Republicans) potentially competitive. But according to Blue Arkansas, at the last minute, Ross changed his mind and insisted on a plan which would shore up his own district at the expense of the other two. Blue AR says this was particularly galling, because, they say, Ross has been telegraphing his plans to run for governor in 2014. However, Ross didn’t get his way: a little tinkering was done, but not enough to materially change the original plan. Anyhow, I believe that the map in question can be viewed here.

• Louisiana: I don’t think there’s much if anything new here, but Politico seems increasingly convinced that Rep. Jeff Landry is on the verge of getting screwed. This of course would not be a surprise, as the teabagging freshman is definitely the low man on the totem pole.