Month: March 2011

Wow, yesterday’s mishugas was quite something, huh? But here it is from the horse’s mouth:

U.S. Rep. Connie Mack IV won’t run for U.S. Senate.

“I’ve got two small children and it’s hard enough to get to spend a lot of good quality time now. I have a wife. They are all very important to me and at the end of the day family has to be number one,” Mack told the St. Petersburg Times.

His wife, kids and parents encouraged him to run and politically it made a lot of sense, he said. But the three-term congressman also considered his position in congress, saying he said he can be a leading advocate for cutting spending and taxes and, as chairman of House Subcommittee on the Western Hemisphere, the 43-year-old Fort Myers Republican also a top voice on Latin America and challenging Hugo Chavez.

Mack had a lot of natural advantages in this race, not least the broad recognition of his family name – his father, Connie Mack III, was a two-term Senator who in fact preceeded Dem Bill Nelson in his seat. So this leave Mike Haridopolos as the only serious candidate in the race – hah, just kidding! Haridopolos is a joke. Which means there’s now an even bigger opening on the GOP side for the likes of ex-Sen. George LeMieux or ex-state House Majority Leader Adam Hasner. But I think the person best situated to take advantage is actually 13th CD Rep. Vern Buchanan, who is very wealthy and probably more acceptable to the teabagging set than Mack, who was occasionally an apostate. Buchanan has some ethical & legal issues of his own, but with Mack out, the field is now wide open.

UPDATE: Wow, check out this bullshit:

On Thursday, a confidante close to Mack told POLITICO “there was nothing wrong with saying it’s expected” that he would run. “You are not wrong to print this,” continued the aide. But this reporter was clearly under the mistaken impression that meant he was going to go forward with a campaign.

“He was the front runner.  He was expected, which is what you wrote, but he’s going to announce he’s not going to run,” said the aide Friday morning.

This source intentionally tried to deceive Dave Catanese and others. Dave, and this source’s other victims, need to share this person’s name. He or she no longer deserves the protections of anonymity – this person failed to live up to their end of the bargain. If this person remains masked, then everyone else in the media ecosystem is at risk of being their next victim.

District 1 (Boundary County and Sandpoint)

2004: Bush 61.1%, Kerry 36.9%

2008: McCain 56.9%, Obama 40%

Senator Sean Keough (R), Representative Eric Anderson (R), Representative George Eskridge (R)

District 2 (Shoshone County, Benewah County and part of Bonner County)

2004: Bush 62.6%, Kerry 35.7%

2008: McCain 59.3%, Obama 37.4%

Senator Joyce Broadsword (R), Representative Shannon McMillan (R), Representative R.J. Hardwood (R)

District 3 (Coeur d’ Alene’s suburbs, exurbia and rural areas, also my district!)

2004: Bush 71.3%, Kerry 27.3%

2008: McCain 67.7%, Obama 30.0%

Senator Steve Vick (R), Representative Vito Barbieri (R), Representative Phil Hart (R)

District 4 (Coeur d’ Alene)

2004: Bush 59%, Kerry 39.4%

2008: McCain 53.3%, Obama 44.2%

Senator John Goedde (R), Representative Marge Chadderdon (R), Representative Kathleen Sims (R)

District 5 (more suburbia except it’s a Spokane oriented one called Post Falls)

2004: Bush 69%, Kerry 29.2%

2008: McCain 64.9%, Obama 32.6%

Senator Jim Hammond (R), Representative Bob Nonini (R), Representative Frank Henderson (R)

District 6 (Latah County: home of the University of Idaho and nothing else besides a few sheep fucking peasants)

2004: Bush 49.5%, Kerry 48.0%

2008: Obama 51.3%, McCain 44.6%

Senator Dan Schmidt (D), Representative Tom Trail (R), Representative Shirley Ringo (D)

District 7 (Lewiston, a few small towns and a Nez Pearce reservation)

2004: Bush 62.2%, Kerry 36.6%

2008: McCain 58.1%, Obama 40.0%

Senator Joe Stenger (R), Representative Jeff Nessett (R), Representative John Rusche (D)

District 8 (Clearwater County, Lewis County, Idaho County and Valley County. Known for vast expanses of nothing)

2004: Bush 70.3%, Kerry 27.3%

2008: McCain 65.1%, Obama 31.8%

Senator Sheryl Nuxoll (R), Representative Ken A. Roberts (R), Representative Paul Shepard (R)

District 9 (Adams, Washington and Payette. No idea what exists here besides a Payette Lake)

2004: Bush 75.3%, Kerry 23.5%

2008: McCain 69.1%, Obama 28.4%

Senator Monty Pearce (R), Lawrence Denney (R), Judy Boyle (R)

District 10 (Boise’s exurbs and suburbs)

2004: Bush 72.1%, Kerry 26.6%

2008: McCain 61.9%, Obama 35.8%

Senator John McGee (R), Representative Pat Taskugi (R), Darrell Bolz (R)

District 11 (Boise’s exurbs and farmland)

2004: Bush 76.9%, Kerry 21.7%

2008: McCain 71.6%, Obama 25.8%

Senator Melissa Snyder (R), Representative Steven Thayn (R), Representative Carlos Bilbao (R)

District 12 (Nampa)

2004: Bush 72.5%, Kerry 26.5%

2008: McCain 61.5%, Obama 36%

Senator Curtis McKenzie (R), Representative Robert Shaffer (R), Representative Melissa Robinson (R)

District 13 (Boise suburbs)

2004: Bush 76.2%, Kerry 22.5%

2008: McCain 69.6%, Obama 29.9%

Senator Patti Longe (R), Representative Brent Crane (R), Representative Christy Perry (R)

District 14 (Eagle and parts of Meridian)

2008: McCain 62.8%, Obama 35.5%

Senator Chuck Winder (R), Representative Mike Moyle (R), Representative Reed DeMourdant (R)

District 15 (Meridian)

2004: Bush 64.0%, Kerry 34.8%

2008: McCain 53.0%, Obama 44.8%

Senator John C Andreason (R), Representative Lynn Luker (R), Representative Max Black (R)

District 16 (West Boise)

2004: Bush 55.2%, Kerry 43.5%

2008: Obama 53.0%, McCain 44.5%

Senator Les Bock (D), Representative Grant Burgoyne (D), Representative Elfreda Higgins (D)

District 17 (Boise Bench)

2004: Bush 50.1%, Kerry 46.7%

2008: Obama 56.6%, McCain 40.1%

Senator Eliott Werk (D), Representative Bill Killen (D), Representative Sue Chew (D)

District 18 (South Boise/Boise State University)

2004: Bush 54.7%, Kerry 46.8%

2008: Obama 52.7%, McCain 45.1%

Senator Mitch Toryanski (R), Representative Julie Ellsworth (R), Representative Phyllis King (D)

District 19 (Boise’s Northend which is basically Idaho’s mini Boulder, Colorado)

2004: Kerry 60.5%, Bush 37.8%

2008: Obama 67.9%, McCain 29.9%

Senator Nicole LeFavour (D), Representative Cherie Buckner-Webb (D), Brian Cronin (D)

District 20 (Meridian)

2004: Bush 74%, Kerry 25.1%

2008: McCain 62.7%, Obama 34.9%

Senator Shirley McKague (R), Representative Joe Palmer (R), Representative Marve Hagedorn (R)

District 21 (Kuna, Bill Sali’s old district)

2004: Bush 73.6%, Kerry 26.5%

2008: McCain 63.5%, Obama 34.2%

Senator Russel Fulcher (R), Representative John Woude (R), Representative Clifford Bayer (R)

District 22 (Mountain Home and Boise County)

2004: Bush 78.3%, Kerry 20.3%

2008: McCain 66.3%, Obama 31.3%

Senator Tim Corder (R), Representative Rich Wills (R), Representative Pete Neilsen (R)

District 23 (Owhyee and the Magic Valley)

2004: Bush 76.7%, Kerry 22.0%

2008: McCain 70.1%, Obama 27.9%

Senator Brett Bracket (R), Representative Jim Patrick (R), Representative Stephen Hartgen (R)

District 24 (Twin Falls)

2004: Bush 73.4%, Kerry 25.4%

2008: McCain 66.0%, Obama 31.4%

Senator Lee Heider (R), Representative Leon Smith (R), Representative Sharon Block (R)

District 25 (Sun Valley)

2004: Bush 54.8%, Kerry 43.8%

2008: Obama 49.6%, McCain 48.0%

Senator Jim Donoval (R), Representative Michael Stennet (D), Representative Wendy Jaquet (D)

District 26 (Jerome County, Minidoka County)

2004: Bush 79.6%, Kerry 19.4%

2008: McCain 72.6%, Obama 24.9%

Senator Dean Cameron (R), Representative Joan Stevenson (R), Representative Maxine Bell (R)

District 27 (Cassia, Oneida and Power counties)

2004: Bush 80.8%, Kerry 17.8%

2008: McCain 75.8%, Obama 21.6%

Senator Denton Darrington (R), Representative Scott Bedke (R), Representative Fred Wood (R)

District 28 (Bingham County)

2004: Bush 76.7%, Kerry 21.9%

2008: McCain 71.2%, Obama 25.8%

Senator Steven Blair (R), Representative Dennis Lake (R), Representative Jim Marriott (R)

District 29 (parts of Pocatello and Chubbuck)

2004: Bush 63.0%, Kerry 35.8%

2008: McCain 56.5%, Obama 41.0%

Senator Diane Bilyeu (D), Ken Andrus (R), Jim Guthrie (R)

District 30 (Pocatello, Idaho State University)

2004: Bush 57.3%, Kerry 41.1%

2008: McCain 48.6%, Obama 48.2%

Senator Edgar Malepai (D), Representative Roy Lacey (D), Representative Elaine Smith (D)

District 31 (Bear Lake, Franklin, Caribou Bonneville and Teton counties)

2004: Bush 80.9%, Kerry 17.8%

2008: McCain 73.9%, Obama 23.0%

Senator Robert Geddes (R), Representative Marc Gibbs (R), Representative Tom Loerstcher (R)

District 32 (Bonneville County)

2004: Bush 80.6%, Kerry 18.2%

2008: McCain 72.6%, Obama 23.4%

Senator Dean Mortimer (R), Representative Janice McGeachin (R), Representative Erik Simpson (R)

District 33 (Idaho Falls)

2004: Bush 71.2%, Kerry 27.5%

2008: McCain 61.9%, Obama 35.4%

Senator Bart Davis (R), Representative Jeff Thompson (R), Representative Linden Bateman (R)

District 34 (BYU-Idaho/Rexburg)

2004: Bush 90.7%, Kerry 8.1%

2008: McCain 84.0%, Obama 13.7%

Senator Brent Hill (R), Representative Mack Shirley (R), Representative Dell Raybould (R)

I skipped district 35. Here’s a map of the districts: http://legislature.idaho.gov/a… I’ll have an explanation diary coming up with a crash course on Idaho politics for the n00bs.  

This diary is meant to be a little fun given all the heavy redistricting diaries we have on here. The one thing that’s always struck me about my home state is how it’s so diverse and interesting in spite of being so small. This diary will try to explain how the various cultural groups fit together by using Dave’s mapping program, along with accompanying demographic and political data.

Region 1 – Eastern Shore (blue)

292,037 people (5.1% of the state)

70.6% white, 21.5% black, 4.4% Hispanic, 1.4% Asian

44.0% Obama

46.1% Average Dem

This region is already well known to anyone familiar with MD politics, and is probably the easiest to define geographically – basically the entire Eastern shore, minus the wealthy Baltimore influence areas of Kent Island, St. Michaels, and Ocean City/Ocean Pines, as well as the college town of Chestertown and northern Cecil County.

This region is the most “Southern” part of Maryland, and would be more at home in tidewater Virginia than in the I-95 Corridor. However, given that this is not the Deep South, and that there is a fairly large black population as a holdover from slavery, Dem margins aren’t as bad here as one would think. Most of the counties still have Dem registration advantages, and as you can see, local Dems do slightly better than Obama did.

Region 2 – Prince George’s County (green)

901,776 people (15.6% of the state)

15.9% white, 67.5% black, 9.5% Hispanic, 4.2% Asian

87.5% Obama

86.1% local Dem

Geographically, this region includes all of central and southern Prince George’s County, as well as parts of northern Charles County, western Anne Arundel County, North Laurel in southern Howard County, and Calverton in Montgomery County.

Home to a large and renown middle-class African-American population, this region of Maryland is probably the closest thing in the rest of the nation to the Atlanta suburbs. It’s interesting that this region exists at all given that Prince George’s County was only 10% black in 1970. What happened to cause this shift was a court decision in the 1970s that demanded the complete racial balancing of all schools in the county. Whites fled, either out of racial fear or out of anger over having to attend a far-away school. Blacks from DC (and later from around the nation) came in to replace them, and the region has continued to grow ever sense. The most recent trend has seen the black middle class expanding outward into other counties. Just think how different Maryland politics would be if that court decision never happened.

Region 3 – Southern Maryland (purple)

297,796 people (5.2% of the state)

79.4% white, 12.7% black, 3.3% Hispanic, 1.8% Asian

43.5% Obama

50.3% Average Dem

This region spans all of St. Mary’s and Calvert Counties, along with southern Anne Arundel County and rural Charles County. This region is a lot like the Eastern Shore, but has held onto its Democratic roots a little more (as noted by the avg Dem performance). This once tobacco-producing part of the state once spanned all of Charles County and southern Prince George’s County as well. With time, the expansion of the DC suburbs will probably kill this region and make it into one big suburb with no southern tendencies to speak of.

Region 4 – Creative Class (brown)

1,712,227 people (29.7% of the state)

59.7% white, 15.6% black, 10.1% Hispanic, 11.5% Asian

65.5% Obama

66.9% Average Dem

When you meet someone who says they’re from Maryland, this is probably where they’re from. Including most of Montgomery County (MoCo), most of Howard County (HoCo), College Park and Bowie in Prince George’s County, northwestern Baltimore County, the wealthier part of Baltimore City, southern Frederick County, Chestertown in Kent County, and Annapolis in Anne Arundel County, this region is full of wealthy young professionals trying to climb the ladder of advancement. It’s hard to say when this region first took off, but I’m sure it has something to do with the GI Bill and federal government expansion in the 1940s.

This area has one of the highest income levels in the country, as well as one of the highest levels of educational attainment. It is staunchly liberal, one of the most liberal areas in the entire nation. It is the largest of Maryland’s cultural groups, and keeps growing larger each day. Who knows how much of Maryland will fall into this category in the future?

Region 5 – Baltimore exurbia (yellow)

776,454 people (13.4% of the state)

88.8% white, 3.9% black, 2.8% Hispanic, 2.8% Asian

35.8% Obama

38.6% Average Dem

This region includes northern Baltimore County, northern Harford County, western Cecil County, eastern Carroll County, northern Howard County, eastern Frederick County, and central Anne Arundel County, along with Damascus in Montgomery County, Linthicum in Anne Arundel County, Arbutus in Baltimore County, Kent Island in Queen Anne’s County, St. Michaels in Talbot County, and Ocean City/Ocean Pines in Worcester County.

This region is the nemesis of the Creative Class region. It is staunchly conservative and proud of it. A lot of people mistakenly think that the Eastern Shore is the center of Maryland conservatism, but no, this is. Andy Harris actually personifies this region – upper class, well-educated, but wanting nothing to do with society at large, and constantly scared that everything one has will be taken away. Look for this region to shrink as white flight from Maryland accelerates.

Region 6 – Western Maryland (teal)

333,931 people (5.8% of the state)

87.9% white, 6.6% black, 2.5% Hispanic, 1.1% Asian

38.1% Obama

38.6% average Dem

This region includes all of Garrett, Allegany, and Washington Counties, along with northern Frederick County and northwestern Carroll County. Staunchly conservative, this is the one region of Maryland that is historically Republican. This region was a major hotbed of abolitionism during the Civil War, and like eastern Tennessee hasn’t given up on Republicans since. The major issue here is shrinkage – Garrett and Allegany finally stopped losing population, but the eastern side continues to be devoured by the outward expansion of DC and Baltimore.

Region 7 – Delaware (grey)

42,144 people (0.7% of the state)

81.1% white, 9.8% black, 4.7% Hispanic, 1.7% Asian

49.3% Obama

51.1% Avg Dem

Encompassing northeastern Cecil County, this is the smallest of Maryland’s cultural regions, and exists as an outward expansion of Wilmington’s suburbs. It’s worth mentioning because its Dem performance is much higher than what its racial stats would suggest.

Region 8 – Baltimore, Hon!

610,137 people (10.6% of the state)

69.6% white, 17.0% black, 6.6% Hispanic, 3.7% Asian

48.9% Obama

56.6% Avg Dem

This region covers southern Harford County, southeastern Baltimore County, southern Baltimore City, southwestern Baltimore County, and parts of northern Anne Arundel County. This region is low in income and low in educational attainment (aka blue collar). Most of the people here actually came from the South and from West Virginia years ago to work in Baltimore’s then thriving factories. Now that the factories are gone, the region is best known for John Waters, drag racing, Natty Bo, and 98 Rock.

A lot has been made of this region’s racism, given how much worse Obama did compared to the average Dem. That difference is actually obscured somewhat by the numbers I’ve provided given that I included some racially-diverse (but still blue collar) neighborhoods that brought Obama’s numbers up. Given the lack of opportunity here, the region is constantly shrinking.

Region 9 – Hispanic Maryland (sky blue)

199,903 people (3.5% of the state)

14.6% white, 26.1% black, 49.8% Hispanic, 7.2% Asian

81.8% Obama

82.1% Avg Dem

Encompassing northern Prince George’s County and central Montgomery County, this region is a newcomer on the Maryland scene. It started in the 1980s when refugees from Central America began to settle in Prince George’s County. Since then, it has expanded greatly, and look for more expansion in the future. Issues here include poverty and low levels of educational attainment, but those issues might be less prevalent as citizenship becomes less of an issue.

Region 10 – African-American Baltimore (pink)

607,157 people (10.5% of the state)

12.7% white, 80.2% black, 3.0% Hispanic, 1.9% Asian

92.4% Obama

89.7% avg Dem

Encompassing most of Baltimore City, western Baltimore County, and a few scattered communities in eastern Baltimore County, this region is sadly known for extreme segregation and poverty. The region has its roots in the 1800s when runaway slaves wanted somewhere to live and work (Maryland was actually not a relatively bad place for a runaway slave to live in spite of the fact that the state had slavery). It expanded greatly during the Great Migration through the 1970s, when African-Americans from the South came north to look for factory jobs. You know the story from there – 1970s – jobs gone, 1980s and 1990s – crack epidemic, 2000s and 2010s – recovery.

One thing that should be mentioned is that the part of western Baltimore County in this region is actually very middle class, which has only worsened conditions in the inner city (as middle class African-Americans fled the city for the county). However, given that the two areas have a common history, I included them as one region. Baltimore City is actually losing blacks faster than it is losing whites now, and while some will head for the County, some will probably head South as well. Look for this region to shrink in the City but expand in the surrounding counties.

So that’s it; questions? comments?

Today’s the last day of Census data releases, meaning we have the complete set of all 50 states now. The Census Bureau released some data summarizing the entire nation, including what you’d think was the single most important bit of all, considering the way they hyped the announcement: the new population center of the U.S., still in south-central Missouri, but moving 30 miles to the southwest, now near Plato, MO. Perhaps more interestingly, they summarized the country’s demographic change as a whole: that starts with the nation’s Hispanic population crossing the 50 million mark, now up to almost 17% of the nation’s population. Hispanics and Asians both grew at a 43% rate, and people checking “2 or more” races rose at a 32% rate. The non-Hispanic white share of the population fell from 69% to 64%. They also found a country that’s more urban than ever before, with 84% of the country living in metropolitan areas now.

I know you’re all champing at the bit to find out what happens in Maine, but there’s this other state called “New… Something” that we should probably get through first. New York is one of only two states to lose two seats, from 29 down to 27. (Ohio was the other one.) New York’s new target is 717,707, up from about 654K in 2000. Thanks to a few hundred votes in a couple of state Senate races that tipped that chamber’s balance, the GOP managed to hold on to one leg of the redistricting trifecta, meaning that instead of a shot at a 26-1 Dem map, there’s probably just going to be a shared-pain map instead with a GOP loss upstate and a Dem loss in the NYC metro area. That’s despite the fact that New York City itself actually grew a bit, to 8.175 million, still by far the nation’s largest city. (There are moves afoot toward an independent redistricting commission, but this doesn’t seem likely to happen.)

In general, the heaviest losses were in the western part of Upstate, with the state’s two biggest losers the Dem-held 27th (Buffalo) and 28th (Rochester). On the other hand, losses also popped up rather patchily in parts of the outer boroughs (especially the 11th in the black parts of Brooklyn… without much seniority, Yvette Clarke may wind up with the shortest straw among the NYC delegation) and Long Island (Peter King’s 3rd… which would be a prime target for the 2nd seat to evaporate, if only the Dems controlled the trifecta here). The big gainers were both urban (Jerry Nadler’s 8th, probably fueled not so much by growth in Manhattan as among Orthodox families in Borough Park in Brooklyn) and exurban (Nan Hayworth’s 19th, at the outermost reaches of the NYC metro area).

While none of the districts in New York seem to be undergoing the kind of rapid demographic transformation that threatens the red/blue balance in any place like we’ve seen in Texas or California, a few districts are worth looking at just as an indicator of what an interesting tapestry New York City is. Take the 5th for instance (another possibility for wipeout, given its strange position straddling Nassau County and Queens, and Gary Ackerman’s non-entity-ness): it’s moved from 44% non-Hispanic white, 5% non-Hispanic black, 24% non-Hispanic Asian, and 24% Hispanic, to 36% white, 4% black, 33% Asian, and 26% Hispanic, close to an Asian-plurality, thanks to growth in the Asian community in Flushing. A few districts in New York City are getting whiter, thanks to hipsters and gentrifiers: the 11th moved from 21% white and 58% black to 26% white and 53% black, while the 12th moved from 23% white and 49% Hispanic to 27% white and 45% Hispanic. The Harlem-based 15th went from 16% white, 30% black, and 48% Hispanic, to 21% white, 26% black, and 46% Hispanic, while the remarkably complex, Queens-based 7th went the other direction, from 28% white, 16% black, 13% Asian, and 40% Hispanic to 21% white, 16% black, 16% Asian, and 44% Hispanic.

Now for the maine event! (Rim shot.) Maine’s a lot like Rhode Island and New Hampshire in that the long-standing boundary between its two districts rarely seems to budge much, and this year won’t be any different. Maine’s target is 664,181, up from 637K in 2000. The disparity of a little more than 4,000 people means things won’t change much; the Republicans control the redistricting process this year but there’s not a lot of fertile material here for them to try to make swingy ME-02 much redder.

That’s Cornelius Harvey McGillicuddy IV to his friends:

Florida Rep. Connie Mack is expected to announce he’s running for U.S. Senate Friday.

A release is billing the 10 a.m. rollout at the county courthouse in Ft. Myers as a “major announcement regarding the 2012 race . . . against liberal incumbent Bill Nelson.”

Mack will be the third official Republican to enter the campaign, following former Col. Mike McCalister and Senate President Mike Haridopolos.

I’m personally a bit surprised to see Mack get in this early, but maybe he thinks he can kinda-sorta clear the field this way (and dry up the stumbling Haridopolos’s fundraising, if it hasn’t already done so on its own). But despite his natural advantages, he’s not a perfect conservative, and the teabaggers always sniff blood.

UPDATE: WHOA! Stop the presses! Literally! Josh Kraushaar is tweeting that Mack will NOT be running, and, believe it or not, that his big announcement tomorrow will consist of an endorsement of Haridopolos:

Top FL GOP source says Mack NOT running for Senate, likely running for re-election instead…

Buzz is that he will be endorsing Haridopolos at announcement tomorrow

UPDATE 2: Ugh, jeez. Kraushaar takes it all back.

• AZ-Sen: Rep. Jeff Flake, long known for his non-insane stance on immigration, has bluntly announced that he’s flip-flopping. Just like John McCain before him, Flake says he no longer supports comprehensive immigration reform and now just wants to discuss border security. Clearly, Flake is terrified of getting teabagged in the senatorial primary, even though he doesn’t have any actual opponents yet. I suspect that Rep. Trent Franks (or someone else with strong movement conservative bona fides) will get into the race, though, and I doubt that Flake’s last-minute conversion will incline the teabaggers to forgive him.

And I also wonder if it might not tick off his patrons at the Club for Growth, who just proudly announced that they’ve raised $350K for him. The CfG is backed by people and organizations who are what you’d call “cheap labor conservatives.” That is, they prefer to see a steady flow of illegal immigrants because they represent a ready pool of workers they can cheaply exploit. The kind of immigration reform that Flake once favored also pleased his corporate masters, because it would have created a temporary worker program-almost as good, but blessed by the law! I doubt that the CfG, which pushed Flake hard to get into the race (and immediately endorsed him once he did) will abandon ship over this offense, but maybe they’ll start focusing their energies on more reliable stooges.

• FL-Sen: I’m really glad that Mike Haridopolos is the only announced Republican candidate of any note because he’s such a walking train-wreck (if you can visualize such a thing)-almost every new story about him is yet another disaster. His eye for optics is particularly atrocious: In his role as President of the state Senate, he just removed a piece of ethics legislation from the body’s agenda-despite having co-sponsored the very same bill last year. Even better, you may recall that Haridopolos was just admonished by the Senate for failing to properly disclose his finances on required forms. I love this guy!

• MI-Sen: A Republican firm who seems to be affiliated with ex-Rep. (and potential candidate) Pete Hoekstra, Strategic National, released bits and pieces of a survey to Dave Catanese. They claim that Dem Sen. Debbie Stabenow’s approval rating is just 30-38, in contrast with PPP’s poll from yesterday which had her at 46-39. The only head-to-head they released showed Hoekstra trailing just 41-38 (PPP has him back 50-38). To Strategic National’s credit (by the way, we’d never heard of this firm until this year), they released their sample makeup. To their discredit, the sample was 46 R, 44 D & 10 I. In other words, from Mars.

• NM-Sen: Could Greg Sowards be the next Christine O’Donnell or Joe Miller? I’d be shocked if you’ve ever heard of this teabagger, but he did spent $300K of his own money to get pasted in the NM-02 primary in 2008. (He also has a fucking funny URL-just Google his name.) With “moderate” Heather Wilson the only big-time candidate in the race so far, a surprising number of winger outfits are giving Sowards a look: He’s in DC visiting with Jim DeMint’s people and the Tea Party Express, among others. Sowards also appeared to get under Rep. Steve Pearce’s skin by saying he didn’t think Pearce would run for the Senate again. Click the link for Pearce’s prickly response.

• NV-Sen: Rep. Shelley Berkley (D) will be keynoting the Jefferson-Jackson dinner in rural Churchill County this Friday, which either means she’s spreading out her feelers for a statewide run, just doing someone a favor, enjoys spending time way up in the northern part of the state, or absolutely nothing.

• OH-Gov: On top of spaghetti, all covered with cheese, I saw John Kasich, and his poll numbers sucked. Quinnipiac sez he’s at 30-46 approvals, while GOP-affiliated pollster We Ask America says he’s at an astoundingly bad 35-58. Q also asked about SB5 (the anti-union bill) with a couple of different wordings; either way, voters are opposed.

• WV-Gov: State House Speaker Rick Thompson’s been cleaning up with the union endorsements (teachers, AFL-CIO), and now he’s racked up a huge one: the United Mine Workers of America.

• AK-AL: This story is so disturbing, I won’t even attempt to summarize:

A Republican congressman from Alaska, who also is on the board of directors of the National Rifle Association, now is attempting to distance himself from a Fairbanks militia leader accused in a high-profile firearms, murder and kidnapping plot.

In April 2009, with a video camera rolling, Rep. Don Young signed a “Letter of Declaration” being circulated by the Second Amendment Task Force/Alaska Peacemakers Militia, led by Francis Schaeffer Cox. The “declaration” called on “sovereign Americans” to “alter or abolish” any government that tries to “further tax, restrict or register firearms” or prevents individuals from exercising their “God-given right to self-defense [that] precedes all human legislation.”

• CA-36: Democracy for America, the activist organization that emerged from the Howard Dean campaign, is endorsing SoS Debra Bowen, though it’s not clear what kind of support they plan on providing. DFA previously endorsed Bowen when she sought re-election to her current job last year.

• IL-10: Activist Ilya Sheyman posts a diary to Daily Kos, saying that he’s “considering running” against Republican Bob Dold! in Illinois’ 10th CD.

• NY-01: Republican Randy Altschuler, who lost the second-closest House race in 2010 (only IL-08 was closer), will be in DC “for a series of meeting”-and that’s all Roll Call has to say about it. Supposedly this means he’s considering a rematch against Rep. Tim Bishop, but we don’t even know who his meetings are with. Maybe he’s talking to the Brewery Soft Drink Beer Distr Optical Dental Misc Workers Warehouseman Help Local 830 PAC, for all we know.

• OR-01: Blue Oregon scored quite the coup: I believe they are the first local print media outfit to get an interview with Rep. David Wu. They say they talked to him for an hour, and promise that they asked tough questions. The contents of the interview will appear in a multi-part series over the next day (just as soon as they finish transcribing). You can read part one and part two now.

• SC-05: I don’t think anyone was expecting that ex-Rep. John Spratt, at age 68 and with 14 terms under his belt, would seek a rematch, and indeed he’s not. At an emotional event to honor Spratt’s many years of service, he said that he might teach, or join a DC think tank, but that whatever he does, “it’ll be part-time.” Godspeed.

• Mayors: Kansas City, MO elected the awesomely-named Sly James as mayor in a runoff last night; he beat fellow Dem Mike Burke 54-46. And in Tampa, Dem Bob Buckhorn crushed Republican Rose Ferlita by a 63-37 margin.

• Campaign Committees: So it looks like the DCCC and NRCC are engaged in a minor skirmish, but with Rahm Emanuel gone, it seems like the Chicago Way means, you come at me with a butter knife, I come at you with a spork. Anyhow, the D-Trip announced it was targeting robocalls and a bit of other media at ten Republicans (click link for districts) regarding Social Security and Medicare, so the NRCC did the exact same thing, except about gas prices. The NRCC also released what it claims is are television ads (but what our friend Nathan Gonzales would call a “video press releases”) against Heath Shuler and Nick Rahall. I’ll bet the amount spent on these buys isn’t enough to buy John Shimkus a meatball sub.

Redistricting Roundup:

• California: The new chair of the CA GOP spazzed about the selection of Q2 Data and Research as the redistricting commission’s map-drawing technical consultant, hollering that the firm has ties “to the Democrat Party.” Zing! Only problem is that the commission (which of course includes Republicans) voted 13-0 to pick Q2.

• Maryland: Last year, Maryland passed new legislation requiring that, for the purposes of redistricting, the state count prisoners as residents where they last lived, rather than where they are serving their sentences. State agencies just certified a count of 22,000 prisoners, and while some Baltimore-area legislative districts gained a bit as a result, the overall effects were slight. (Side note: The US government refused to share “last known address” data concerning the 1,500 inmates incarcerated in Maryland’s lone federal prison.) The only other states with similar legislation are Delaware and New York; while this information affects local as well as state redistricting efforts, congressional redistricting is based on US Census data, and I’m pretty sure these laws don’t cover that.

• Virginia: Winners were announced in the college competition to redistrict the state of Virginia. You can find the maps at the link. I don’t think they got any babka, though.

By: Inoljt, http://mypolitikal.com/

There are quite a number of Mexican citizens living in America. Much political attention has been paid to these people by both American political parties. Liberals hope that the votes of their children will carve out a new permanent Democratic majority. Conservatives, on the other hand, relentlessly campaign against undocumented immigrants and “amnesty.”

When immigrant rallies occur, conservative media frequently focus on immigrants from Mexico waving Mexican flags. The implication is that these people are more loyal to Mexico than the United States.

Let’s take this thought a bit further, to a subject which most conservatives don’t think about. Like the United States, Mexico will have a presidential election in 2012. There are a lot of Mexican citizens in the United States (whether documented or undocumented). What if they voted?

More below.

So far they have not. Before the 2006 presidential election, Mexicans living abroad had to physically be present in Mexico to vote. Given the difficulty and expense of doing this (for all expatriates, not just Mexican), this effectively disenfranchised the Mexican expatriate population.

Before the 2006 presidential election, a new law was passed. This allowed Mexicans living abroad to register for an “overseas” ballot. The expectations were quite high; imagine the power of Mexico’s enormous expatriate vote to affect domestic Mexican politics.

As it turns out, however, only 32,632 Mexican citizens living in America bothered to take the offer. Most of them probably didn’t know about the procedure, or perhaps found it too complex. Apparently Mexican immigrants are just as disconnected to Mexican politics as they are to American politics (or more disconnected, in all probability).

Whether turn-out will be just as low in 2012 is still a mystery. Still, it’s pretty fascinating to consider what might happen if expatriate voting actually went into high-gear. What if the current ban on campaigning abroad was overturned? Imagine the PRI holding a political rally in California (or better yet, Arizona!). How about the PAN running advertisements on Univision?

Probably nothing more would piss nativists off than having Mexican political parties physically campaigning in the United States for the Mexican immigrant vote. It’s a humorous, if slightly unrealistic, thought.

Rhode Island doesn’t offer much for redistricting fans to sink their teeth into: it has two districts that are about equally blue, the Dems control the redistricting trifecta, and the disparity between the two districts, while not New Hampshire-close, requires only minimal boundary-shifting. Rhode Island’s target is a tiny 526,284 (only up from 524K in 2000… Rhode Island had the smallest growth, percentage-wise, of any state over the decade, putting it 2nd overall behind only Michigan, which actually lost population). If this continues, there’s the distinct possibility we could see Rhode Island reduced to one House seat come 2020. Also worth noting: Rhode Island had a lot of Hispanic growth over the decade, not quite on par with the Southwest but high for the Northeast; it went from 8.5% Hispanic to 12.4%, and Providence moved to a Hispanic plurality.

South Carolina is gaining one seat to move from six to seven; its new target based on 7 seats is 660,766 (it was 668K in 2000, so every district gained significantly over the decade). With the GOP holding the trifecta and much of the growth seeming to come among white retirees, look for the creation of one more Republican-friendly seat… with one possible wild card, that the Obama DOJ might weigh in and push for a second African-American VRA seat (theoretically possible if terribly ugly, as SSP’s crack team of freelance mapmakers have shown here). The biggest growth has come in the coastal Low Country, rather than the fiercely evangelical uplands; I’d expect Charleston and Myrtle Beach, both part of SC-01 for now, to wind up each anchoring their own districts.

West Virginia is staying at three seats for now, although it might be headed for two seats in 2020, given its slow growth and low targets; its target is 617,665, only up from 603K in 2000. The 3rd, in coal country in the southern part of the state, is losing population (though not as fast as one might suspect); the 2nd needs to shed an amount equivalent to what the 3rd needs to gain, leaving the 1st pretty stable. Much of the state’s growth is in the far east tip of the Panhandle (in the 2nd), especially Berkeley County, which serves as Washington DC’s furthest-out exurbs. Dave Wasserman, who seems to get all the good redistricting-related gossip, says that while the obvious solution (moving Mason County from the 2nd to the 3rd, and calling it a wrap) still seems likely, the Dems who control the redistricting trifecta might want to cobble together a slightly Dem-friendlier 1st along the state’s northern boundary that includes both Morgantown and the Panhandle exurbs (the only counties in the state that are getting bluer).

Buyer’s remorse is setting in quickly, according to Democratic pollster Greenberg Quinlan Rosner.

GQR polled 50 House districts currently held by Republicans which are expected to be major Democratic targets in 2012. The results indicate that the Republican House majority is already endangered, less than three months into Speaker John Boehner’s regime.

From GQR’s polling memo:

The Republican incumbents in these districts, 35 of them freshmen, remain largely unknown and appear very vulnerable in 2012 (depending on redistricting). In fact, these incumbents are in a weaker position than Democratic incumbents were even in late 2009, or Republican incumbents were in 2007 in comparable surveys conducted by Democracy Corps.

These incumbents, identified by name, have an average approval rating of 35 percent across the 50 districts, with 25 percent disapproving. Another 38 percent were not able to give the candidates a rating, suggesting lack of visibility. This is about 10 points lower than the approval rating Democratic incumbents held in July of 2009 (with comparable disapproval rating).

More importantly at this early point, just 40 percent of voters in these districts say that they will vote to reelect their incumbent (asked by name in each district), while 45 percent say that they “can’t vote to reelect” the incumbent.

This leads to a congressional race that is dead-even in the battleground. After winning these seats by a collective 14 points in 2010, these Republicans now lead generic Democratic challengers by just 2 points, 44 to 46 percent, and stand well below the critical 50 percent mark. The race is dead even in the top tier of the 25 most competitive seats‚ 46 percent for the Democrats versus 45 percent for the Republicans. In the next 25 seats, the Republicans have a slight 42 to 47 percent advantage.

You can find a list of the 50 districts polled here. House junkies will recognize most of the usual suspects there – IL-13 and IL-16 are probably the biggest surprises.

In the summer of 2009, the 40 vulnerable Democrats tested in this poll actually had a six-point lead; 36 of them wound up losing. And at this time in 2007, the 35 most vulnerable Republicans had the same six-point lead; 19 of them lost reelection.

Compared to that, a 2-point lead for GQR’s 50 most vulnerable Republicans doesn’t look very strong. And if even half these seats are lost, there goes the Republican majority.

Now, the Republican incumbents have a couple things on their side. One is time; a lot can happen in the next year and a half. Another is redistricting; while Republicans don’t control the redistricting process for all these incumbents, they can make some of them safer, and they can also endanger a few of the remaining Democrats to balance out losses.

Still, these are bad early indicators for the new Congress. Voters don’t know their new representatives very well, and they don’t like them especially well, and they seem quite prepared to vote Democratic in 2012.