DCCC Targets 13 GOP Incumbents in New Radio Ads

The DCCC is launching radio ads against thirteen incumbents this week, targeting Republicans for their support of Big Oil. CNN has a sample spot, and the Hill has the targets list:

Brian Bilbray (CA-50)

Charlie Dent (PA-15)

Thelma Drake (VA-02)

Shelly Moore Capito (WV-02)

Steve Chabot (OH-01)

Phil English (PA-03)

Scott Garrett (NJ-05)

Jim Gerlach (PA-06)

Virgil Goode (VA-05)

Robin Hayes (NC-08)

Patrick McHenry (NC-10)

Peter Roskam (IL-06)

Jean Schmidt (OH-02)

That’s an interesting mix of top-tier (OH-01, NC-08), midfield (WV-02, VA-02) and longshot races (NC-10, PA-15, VA-05). While it’s a small buy, these are the type of districts that the DCCC hopes to expand the battleground to this fall.

The Modern Republican Party: A Compendium of Catastrophe

It’s often been said that the Republican Party, from coast to coast, has run into some pretty bad luck this cycle. But I think it’s very easy to forget just how much bad luck they’ve run into. To remedy that, the Swing State Project has put together the most comprehensive compendium of Republican hubris, fuckups and misfortunes you will find anywhere, ever. Call it the “Year of Living Catastrophically”, if you will.

I hope you packed a snack, because this is gonna take a while.

2007

January 9: US Attorney Chris Christie declines to challenge Sen. Frank Lautenberg (D-NJ).

January 15: Colorado GOP Sen. Wayne Allard announces that he will retire at the end of his term, leaving his seat vulnerable to a takeover by Democrat Mark Udall.

January 15: The Wall Street Journal reports that Gov. Jim Gibbons (R-NV) is under federal investigation for bribery.

January 29: Red Sox pitcher Curt Schilling, considered a potential challenger to Sen. John Kerry, announces that he will play in 2008, denying the NRSC a star recruit.

February 23: GOP Rep. Michele Bachmann (MN-06) claims to know of a secret Iranian plan to partition Iraq and create a “a terrorist safe haven zone” called the “Iraq State of Islam” in order to launch attacks throughout the Middle East and on the United States. Bachmann is forced to recant her unsourced delusions days later.

March 6: On the same day that ex-US Attorney David Iglesias testifies before the House Judiciary Committee that he received intimidating phone calls from GOP Rep. Heather Wilson (NM-01) and Sen. Pete Domenici (R-NM) prior to the 2006 mid-term elections about an investigation of a Democratic state senator, Wilson admits that she called Iglesias, but claims her intent was not to intimidate Iglesias.

March 6: One of the GOP’s top choices to challenge freshman Democratic Rep. Ron Klein (FL-22), state Rep. Adam Hasner, declines to run. State Sen. Jeff Atwater also says “no”.

March 15: GOP Rep. Jean Schmidt (OH-02) reportedly slips and falls in vomit in a Capitol Hill bathroom.

March 19: GOP Rep. Tim Walberg (MI-07) sticks his foot in his mouth by saying that most of Iraq is about as safe as Detroit or Chicago.

March 21: Ex-Rep. Scott McInnis, who was considered a credible candidate for statewide office, declines to seek the GOP nomination for the open Senate seat of retiring Colorado Sen. Wayne Allard.

March 31: The NRSC’s dream candidate to challenge Dem Sen. Mark Pryor, former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, says that he won’t run for Senate.

April 10: Nevada GOP Gov. Jim Gibbons serves up a whopper to the local press when he says that he’s “heard rumors” of Democrats paying the Wall Street Journal to write articles exposing his corruption.

April 18: The FBI raids the home of GOP Rep. John Doolittle (CA-04).

April 20: GOP Rep. Rick Renzi (AZ-01) steps down from the House Intelligence Committee after the FBI raids his family business.

May 5: Ex-Rep. Bob Schaffer bizarrely tries to un-announce his candidacy for the open Senate seat of retiring GOP Sen. Wayne Allard.

May 15: Boca Raton Mayor Steve Abrams, one of the NRCC’s top choices to run against Democratic Rep. Ron Klein (FL-22), declines to run, joining a long list of local officeholders passing on the race.

May 29: The Anchorage Daily News reports that the FBI and a federal grand jury are investigating a remodeling project at the Girdwood home of Sen. Ted Stevens (R-AK) that was organized by the oil services company VECO.

July 1: The NRCC’s much-hyped recruit against freshman Democrat Joe Courtney (CT-02), former Groton submarine base commander Sean Sullivan, discloses that he only raised “between $25,000 and $30,000” in his first three months of campaigning. After failing to pick up the pace significantly in the coming months, Sullivan becomes “persona non grata” to DC Republicans and the district quickly falls off the list of Republican targets.

July 5: Montana Rep. Denny Rehberg announces that he won’t challenge Sen. Max Baucus in 2008, denying the NRSC their top choice in the state.

July 9: Sen. David Vitter (R-LA) admits to being a customer of the DC madam and enjoying the company of prostitutes in the past.

July 19: GOP Rep. Chris Shays (CT-04) loses his cool and “screams obscenities” at a Capitol police officer.

July 25: The Wall Street Journal reveals 18-term GOP Rep. Don Young (AK-AL) is under criminal investigation for his dealings with VECO, just like Ted Stevens.

July 26: GOP Rep. Ray LaHood (IL-18) announces his retirement, putting his R+5.5 district on the map for Democrats.

July 30: The FBI and the IRS raid the home of GOP Sen. Ted Stevens (R-AK).

There’s more – much, much more – below the fold.

August 15: GOP Rep. Deborah Pryce (OH-15) announces her retirement, putting her Dem-trending R+1.1 district at the top of the Democratic takeover list.

August 17: GOP Rep. Dennis Hastert (IL-14), the former Speaker of the House, announces his retirement at the end of his term. Hastert’s decision puts his R+4.8 open seat on the DCCC’s target map.

August 17: GOP state Sen. Steve Stivers and former Columbus Mayor Buck Rinehart both decline to run for the open seat of retiring Rep. Deborah Pryce (OH-15).

August 23: Embattled GOP Rep. Rick Renzi (AZ-01) announces his retirement, opening up his competitive district for a Democratic takeover.

August 23: GOP state Rep. Jim Hughes also declines to run for the open seat of retiring Rep. Deborah Pryce (OH-15).

August 27: It is revealed that GOP Sen. Larry Craig of Idaho was busted on charges of lewd behavior in a Minneapolis airport bathroom. Craig famously defends his conduct by saying that he tends to take a “wide stance” while using the toilet.

August 27: Two of the GOP’s top choices to run for the open seat of retiring Rep. Deborah Pryce (OH-15), former state AG Jim Petro and former Columbus Mayor Greg Lashutka, both decline to run, leaving the GOP empty-handed in this tossup district for months.

August 31: Virginia GOP Sen. John Warner announces his retirement, putting his Senate seat in play for Democrats.

September 6: Former AZ state Senate President Ken Bennett, the GOP’s top choice to replace retiring Rep. Rick Renzi (AZ-01), says that he won’t run for Congress.

September 7: Nailed by the Chicago Tribune over various shady land deals, GOP Rep. Jerry Weller (IL-11) goes into hiding.

September 10: In an explosive closed-door meeting with House Minority Whip Roy Blunt and Rep. Eric Cantor, Minority Leader John Boehner sharply criticizes Tom Cole’s performance and strategic decisions as NRCC chair. Word leaks out that Cole threatened to resign if Boehner forced any personnel changes at the NRCC.

September 13: DSCC Chair Chuck Schumer hits the mother lode when former Virginia Gov. Mark Warner announces that he’ll run for the open seat of retiring GOP Sen. John Warner.

September 14: Former New Hampshire Gov. Jeanne Shaheen announces that she will run against GOP Sen. John Sununu, giving the senator his stiffest possible challenge.

September 17: GOP Rep. Jim Ramstad (MN-03) decides that he’s just not fit for life in the Minority and announces his retirement, putting his tossup R+0.5 seat into play.

September 21: GOP Rep. Jerry Weller (IL-11) announces his retirement, vaulting his R+1.1 suburban district to the top of the DCCC’s targeted races list.

September 26: GOP Rep. Terry Everett (AL-02) announces his retirement, putting his conservative R+13.2 district on the target map for Democrats.

September 30: Retiring GOP Rep. Ray LaHood (IL-18) predicts the future: “The Democrats will continue to be the majority party in the House and Senate and Hillary Clinton will make history by being the first woman president.”

October 3: The GOP’s top choice to run for the seat of retiring Rep. Jerry Weller (IL-11), state Sen. Christine Radogno, declines to run.

October 4: Longtime New Mexico Sen. Pete Domenici announces his retirement, giving Democrats another excellent Senate pick-up opportunity.

October 5: GOP Rep. Heather Wilson (NM-01) jumps into the race to replace Domenici, opening up her Dem-leaning D+2.4 seat.

October 11: GOP Rep. Ralph Regula (OH-16) announces his retirement, putting his Dem-trending R+3.6 near the top of the DCCC’s target list.

October 13: Garbage magnate James Galante is charged with violating Connecticut state campaign finance laws for suspicious donations to various PACs, including one controlled by GOP state Sen. David Cappiello, who is running for congress against freshman Democratic Rep. Chris Murphy (CT-05).

October 14: GOP Rep. Dave Hobson (OH-07) announces his retirement, putting his R+6 seat on the table for Democrats.

October 16: GOP Rep. Steve Pearce (NM-02) announces that he will run against Heather Wilson for the Senate nomination to succeed Pete Domenici, setting up the GOP for a bruising primary and putting his R+5.7 open seat into play.

October 19: After his contracting relationship with Blackwater and past run-ins with the law gained scrutiny in the press, IN-02 GOP candidate Chris Minor ends his campaign against frosh Dem Rep. Joe Donnelly, leaving the GOP empty-handed once again.

October 22: A spokesman for South Dakota Gov. Mike Rounds says that he has no plans to challenge Democratic Sen. Tim Johnson, denying the NRSC their most coveted recruit in the state.

October 23: A sign of the times? The entire membership of the all-Republican governing body of the swing town of Lyndhurst, New Jersey switch from Republican to Democrat. In addition, nearly 60% of Lyndhurst’s Republican County Committee defect to the Democratic Party.

October 25: The GOP’s great “moderate” hope of retaining the seat of retiring Virginia Sen. John Warner, Rep. Tom Davis, drops out of the race after getting snubbed by the VA GOP. The news leaves Republicans hobbled with unpopular former Gov. Jim Gilmore as their leading candidate.

November 6: The Hill writes that “a recruiting surge anticipated by the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) in recent weeks has yet to take shape as promised.”

November 7: Democrat Steve Beshear crushes incumbent Kentucky Republican Gov. Ernie Fletcher in a landslide.

November 7: Democrats in Virginia and Mississippi capture control of their state Senates, and Virginia Dems gain more ground in the House of Delegates, as well.

November 8: 26 year-old GOP “wunderkind” Aaron Schock, who’s running to succeed retiring Republican Ray LaHood (IL-18), announces a downright insane plan to sell nuclear weapons to Taiwan in order to coerce China to fall in line with American policy towards Iran.

November 9: GOP Rep. Jim Saxton (NJ-03) announces his retirement from the House, leaving Democratic state Sen. John Adler well-poised to capture this D+3 open seat.

November 10: Democrat Tom Udall announces that he’s definitely running for the seat of retiring GOP Sen. Pete Domenici. Short of Gov. Bill Richardson, Udall is the strongest possible Democratic candidate and his entry immediately gives the Democrats the upper hand in this race.

November 19: GOP Rep. Mike Ferguson (NJ-07) makes a surprise retirement announcement, moving this competitive district into the tossup column.

November 20: The GOP’s top three choices to run for the open seat left behind by retiring Rep. Mike Ferguson (NJ-07) — Jon Bramnick, Bob Franks, and Tom Kean, Jr. — all pass on the race.

November 20: Wealthy businessman Andrew Saul, who had been posting impressive fundraising numbers in his race against Democratic Rep. John Hall (NY-19), shocks the political world by abruptly dropping out of the race. The GOP is left without a viable candidate to challenge the freshman Hall.

November 20: Upper Darby Police Superintendent Michael Chitwood, a media-savvy police chief with loads of name recognition, declines to challenge freshman Democrat Joe Sestak (PA-07).

November 26: Mississippi GOP Sen. Trent Lott announces that he will resign from Congress by the end of the year, putting his Senate seat in play and triggering a series of downballot shuffles that eventually put a House district in play.

November 26: GOP Rep. Dennis Hastert (IL-14), the immediate past Speaker of the House, resigns from Congress, setting up a special election for early 2008. The vacancy puts this historically Republican R+4.8 district in play.

November 29: Well-liked GOP state Sen. Diane Allen declines to run for the open seat of retiring Rep. Jim Saxton (NJ-03) after not being able to secure financial assurances from the cash-strapped NRCC.

November 29: Former Assemblyman Howard Mills says that he won’t challenge freshman Democratic Rep. John Hall (NY-19).

December 7: GOP Rep. Jim McCrery (LA-04) announces his retirement, putting this R+6.5 district into play.

December 8: Ex-GOP Rep. Charles Taylor finally makes up his mind and announces that he won’t challenge freshman Rep. Heath Shuler (NC-11) in a rematch. Several other high-profile Republican candidates, kept out of the race by Taylor’s indecision, ultimately decline to enter.

December 11: The NRCC gets successfully head-faked in two special elections in deeply red districts (OH-05 and VA-01) by the DCCC, and spends over $500,000 (20% of the committee’s cash-on-hand) defending the two seats. NRCC Chair Tom Cole is later attacked for wasting scarce resources.

December 11: Iraq Vet and surgeon Wayne Mosley declines to challenge Democratic Rep. John Barrow (GA-12).

December 31: Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour taps Rep. Roger Wicker (MS-01) to fill the open seat left behind by retired Sen. Trent Lott, opening up his R+10 House district for a Democratic takeover.

2008

January 1: NY Assemblyman Greg Ball declines to run against Dem Rep. John Hall (NY-19), leaving the GOP with third-tier candidate Kieran Lalor.

January 11: State Rep. Bill Konopnicki, one of the GOP’s top choices to run for the seat of retiring Rep. Rick Renzi (AZ-01), drops out of the race, leaving Republicans without a top tier candidate in this competitive district.

January 15: GOP Rep. Richard Baker (LA-06) announces that he’ll hang up his spurs and take a plum lobbying job instead, opening up his R+6.5 district for a takeover by Democratic state Rep. Don Cazayoux.

January 21: The NRCC’s preferred candidate to challenge freshman Democratic Rep. Patrick Murphy (PA-08), ex-Rep. Mike Fitzpatrick, announces that he’ll run for the State House instead. Within a month, Fitzpatrick bails on that campaign, too.

January 22: Missouri Republican Gov. Matt Blunt announces that he won’t seek a second term, leaving Democratic state AG Jay Nixon as the frontrunner to succeed him.

January 23: GOP Rep. Jim Walsh (NY-25) announces that he will retire from Congress, giving Democrats a prime pick-up opportunity for his D+3.2 open seat.

January 29: GOP Rep. Kenny Hulshof (MO-09) announces that he will leave Congress to run for Governor, leaving his R+6.5 district up for grabs.

January 29: GOP Rep. Ron Lewis (KY-02) announces his retirement, putting his conservative but historically Democratic R+12.9 district on the table.

January 30: GOP Rep. Tom Davis (VA-11) announces his retirement from Congress, opening up his Dem-trending R+0.6 district for a takeover.

February 12: When asked if he will challenge Sen. Mark Pryor (D-AR) for his re-election, Mike Huckabee replies: “There’s a greater chance that I would dye my hair green, cover my body with tattoos and go on a rock tour with Amy Winehouse.”

February 12: Pro-war state Sen. Andy Harris successfully defeats moderate incumbent Rep. Wayne Gilchrest (MD-01) in the GOP primary. Gilchrest’s defeat gives Democrat Frank Kratovil a fighting chance of picking up the R+9.8 seat in November.

February 12: GOP Rep. John Shaddeg (AZ-03) announces his retirement.

February 21: Desperate GOPers beg John Shadegg to unretire. In an embarrassing about-face which serves as an admission that the Republicans had no ability to recruit a strong replacement in this district, Shadegg changes his mind and decides to stick it out for another term.

February 22: GOP Rep. Rick Renzi is indicted on 35 criminal counts including conspiracy, wire fraud, money laundering and official extortion.

February 23: The GOP’s candidate to run for retiring Rep. Jerry Weller’s (IL-11) open seat, New Lennox Mayor Tim Baldermann, drops out of the race.

February 25: Outgoing GOP Rep. Renzi (AZ-01) bucks the orders of John Boehner and refuses to resign immediately from Congress.

February 27: GOP Sen. Ted Stevens loses his free pass when Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich announces his candidacy against him.

March 4: The NRCC’s preferred candidate to take on Democratic Rep. Ciro Rodriguez (TX-23), wealthy self-funding attorney Franciso “Quico” Canseco, loses his primary to Bexar County Commissioner Lyle Larson, despite spending over $1 million on the race. Larson has only raised a fraction of that amount, causing many observers to downgrade this race’s competitiveness.

March 4: The GOP nominates Fred Dailey, a former state Agriculture Director, to take on freshman Rep. Zack Space (OH-18). Dailey’s fundraising is incredibly anemic, having only raised $75,000 through the primary, despite being in the race for over nine months.

March 5: Republican real estate developer Anne Estabrook drops out of the Senate race against Frank Lautenberg due to illness.

March 6: The GOP’s top choice to challenge freshman Democratic Rep. Harry Mitchell (AZ-05), Arizona Corporation Commissioner Jeff Hatch-Miller, drops out of the race.

March 7: GOP Rep. Steve King (IA-05) announces that he won’t challenge Democratic Sen. Tom Harkin, leaving the NRSC without a top-tier candidate once again.

March 8: South Dakota Gov. Mike Rounds once again refuses to run against Democratic Sen. Tim Johnson, despite President Bush begging him to change his mind.

March 8: Democrat Bill Foster wins the special election in IL-14 for the seat of retiring Rep. Dennis Hastert, the former Speaker of the House. The pick-up of the R+4.8 open seat inspires SSP Publisher DavidNYC to start the blog’s wildly popular Tom Cole Deathwatch series, later a hot topic of discussion on Capitol Hill.

March 10: Former Lt. Governor and Republican businessman and flesh-eating zombie Steve Kirby also declines to run against Sen. Tim Johnson (D-SD), dashing GOP hopes of finding a wealthy challenger to make this a race.

March 13: NRCC Chair Tom Cole reveals that the NRCC overstated its cash on hand by $740,000 due to fraud by an ex-employee.

March 13: NRSC Chair John Ensign admits that the committee’s goal of capturing “two seats” to take back the Senate is a “very long stretch”.

March 13: Retiring GOP Rep. Tom Davis (VA-11), a former chair of the NRCC, famously says: “The House Republican brand is so bad right now that if it were a dog food, they’d take it off the shelf.”

March 19: GOP Rep. Tom Reynolds (NY-26) — who only one cycle before helmed the NRCC — retires, opening up his R+3.5 seat for a takeover.

March 23: Andy Unanue, a former seller of luscious Goya nectars, announces his candidacy for the U.S. Senate against Frank Lautenberg (D-NJ) while vacationing in the posh resort community of Vail, Colorado.

March 24: The GOP finally finds a candidate for the open seat of retiring Illinois Rep. Jerry Weller (IL-11) — their twentieth choice, shady concrete mogul Martin Ozinga.

March 24: The GOP’s preferred choice to run for the open seat of retiring Rep. Tom Reynolds (NY-26), state Sen. George Maziarz, won’t run. Their second choice, Assemblyman Jim Hayes, also declines to run.

March 25: The GOP’s lone candidate to take on Democrat Dan Maffei in the open seat of NY-25, former State Fair Director Peter Cappuccilli, pulls the plug on his candidacy, leaving the GOP without a candidate here for some time.

March 27: State Rep. Donna Stone declines to run for the Delaware Governor’s office, leaving Delaware GOP officials to lament that they “have no strong candidates” to offer for the open seat race in 2008.

March 31: The GOP’s top choice to run for the open seat left behind by retiring Democratic Rep. Bud Cramer in Alabama, DINO state Sen. Tom Butler, declines to run.

April 6: The GOP’s top choice to take on Democratic Sen. Frank Lautenberg, biotech millionaire John Crowley, pulls out of the race for the second time in two weeks, leaving the GOP to temporarily fall back on disgraced Goya foods frat boy Andy Unanue.

April 7: Colorado Senate candidate Bob Schaffer’s ties to Jack Abramoff begin to receive wider exposure in local media.

April 21: The GOP’s top choice to run for the open seat of retiring Rep. Rick Renzi (AZ-01), former state Sen. President Ken Bennett, again declines to run, leaving the GOP with the far-right loon Sydney Hay as their last resort.

April 22: In the MS-01 special primary, Democrat Travis Childers very nearly wins the R+10 open seat left behind by Roger Wicker outright. GOP panic ensues as the race goes to a runoff.

May 1: GOP Rep. Vito Fossella (NY-13) is arrested on DWI charges in Virginia.

May 3: Democrat Don Cazayoux wins the LA-06 special election against Republican Woody Jenkins in an R+6.5 district. This is the Democrats’ second house pick-up of the year.

May 6: Rumors rage that GOP Rep. Vito Fossella is involved in an extramarital affair and has an out-of-wedlock child after details of his DWI arrest are made public.

May 7: Asheville City Councilman Carl Mumpower, the GOP candidate against freshman Rep. Heath Shuler (NC-11) tells the NRCC that he has no interest in accepting their campaign money, saying that the national party has “abandoned their principles”.

May 8: Rep. Vito Fossella (NY-13) admits to fathering a child in an extramarital affair.

May 9: Several local NY papers call on Rep. Vito Fossella to resign.

May 9: Vice President Dick Cheney makes an embarrassing gaffe on a Mississippi radio show about visiting “South Memphis” in order to campaign for GOP candidate Greg Davis in an upcoming special election. The locals are not amused.

May 13: In a back-breaking blow to Republican morale, Democrat Travis Childers beats Republican Greg Davis by eight points for the R+10 open seat left behind by appointed Sen. Roger Wicker in Mississippi. SSP Publisher DavidNYC writes that the result is the “final piece of straw set atop the shambling camel of the GOP, the one which clove its dessicated humps in two.”

May 14: GOP Senate candidate Bob Schaffer kicks off his campaign in Colorado with an embarrassing TV spot that features an image of Alaska’s Mt. McKinley in the place of Colorado’s Pikes Peak.

May 19: GOP Rep. Vito Fossella (NY-13) announces his retirement, creating another vulnerable open seat for Republicans to defend.

May 20: Businessman Mike Erickson wins the GOP nomination in OR-05 for the open swing seat left behind by retiring Democratic Rep. Darlene Hooley. However, Erickson spends the last week of his primary campaign deflecting accusations that he used to lead a party-heavy lifestyle of cocaine use and that he paid for a girlfriend’s abortion procedure several years earlier. The allegations heavily blunt the GOP’s hopes of making this race into a rare pick-up opportunity.

May 20: The filing deadline passes in Arkansas, and Democratic Sen. Mark Pryor, considered one of the GOP’s top targets early in the cycle, goes unchallenged by any major party opposition.

May 21: OR-05 primary loser Kevin Mannix refuses to endorse GOP candidate Mike Erickson.

May 21: In the wake of the GOP’s loss of MS-01, word leaks out that Minority Leader John Boehner is forcing some major changes upon Tom Cole and the NRCC.

May 22: In a major disappointment for the NRCC, the GOP’s top choice to replace Vito Fossella (NY-13) in the House, Richmond County DA Dan Donovan, declines to run.

May 22: GOP delegates vote to endorse wingnut Kieran Lalor over Westchester Legislator George Oros. Days later, Oros drops out of the race, setting up freshman Democratic Rep. John Hall (NY-19) for an easy re-election bid.

May 27: GOP Rep. Bill “Brain Fade” Sali (ID-01) turns back a poorly-funded primary challenge by only capturing 60% of the vote.

May 29: State Sen. Andrew Lanza, the GOP’s second choice to succeed Vito Fossella (NY-13), officially declines to run.

May 29: Failing to convince a top-tier (or second-tier) candidate to run for Fossella’s seat, the Staten Island GOP nominates some dude named Frank Powers, a retired Wall Street executive and MTA member.

May 29: Nevada Republicans are sent into a tailspin as details of GOP Gov. Jim Gibbons’ divorce proceedings are made public. GOP consultant Chuck Muth laments: “This absolutely could depress Republicans who are already depressed. This could hurt McCain’s ability to hold on to Nevada. It could also affect the chances of (Rep.) Jon Porter to get re-elected.”

May 31: In a sign of grassroots disgust, Jim Gilmore very nearly loses the GOP nomination to succeed retiring Sen. John Warner to state Del. Bob Marshall.

June 3: In a major embarrassment for NRSC Chair John Ensign and Massachusetts Republicans, dark horse candidate Jim Ogonowski fails to file enough signatures to make the ballot against John Kerry.

June 3: Carpet-bagging blockhead and conservative firebrand Tom McClintock beats the more moderate (and perhaps more electable) Doug Ose for the GOP nod to succeed John Doolittle.

June 3: In Iowa, Montana and New Mexico, party-favored candidates for Senate lose their primary bids to no-money candidates. In Montana, the upset is particularly glaring; the winning candidate, Bob Kelleher, is a former Democrat and Green Party member who has lost numerous bids for statewide office in the past. In New Mexico, hand-picked “moderate” successor to Pete Domenici, Rep. Heather Wilson, loses to the Club For Growth-backed conservative Rep. Steve Pearce.

June 3: Asheville City Councilman Carl Mumpower, the GOP’s candidate against Rep. Heath Shuler (NC-11) calls for the impeachment of President Bush over his “failure to protect America’s sovereignty”.

June 4: Francis M. Powers, the son of NY-13 GOP candidate Francis H. Powers, seeks to run on the Libertarian Party line against his father in the hopes of denying him the seat. While Powers’ bid is ultimately unsuccessful, the event badly embarrasses Staten Island Republicans.

June 5: Staten Island Conservatives buck the state party and press to give their endorsement to Democrat Mike McMahon.

June 7: NRSC John Ensign moves the goalposts out of the stadium by suggesting that the GOP’s “minimum goal” is to retain control of 41 Senate seats.

June 9: OH-16 GOP candidate Kirk Schuring makes an embarrassing gaffe about gun violence in his hometown of Canton.

June 12: An audit reveals that former NRCC treasurer Christopher Ward embezzled $725,000 from the committee over a period of six years, up from previous NRCC estimates of $500-$600K. In addition, it is revealed that Ward stole $27,000 from the NRSC via joint fundraising activities and $47,000 from other GOP leadership PACs, for a total of almost $800,000.

June 12: When asked to list the competitive Senate races of 2008, NRSC Chair John Ensign leaves off New Mexico and Virginia. When asked if the NRSC is writing off Steve Pearce and Jim Gilmore, Ensign replies: “You don’t waste money on races that don’t need it or you can’t win.”

June 16: In a move that leaves both supporters and detractors speechless, “Big John” Cornyn releases this campaign video at the Texas GOP convention.

June 18: GOP wunderkind Jon Elrod drops out of the race against Rep. Andre Carson (IN-07), saying that he wouldn’t stand much of a chance in November.

June 20: The Alaska AFL-CIO, which has usually backed Sen. Ted Stevens, votes to give its endorsement to his Democratic challenger, Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich.

June 20: Republican nominee Joel Dykstra is forced to address claims that he’s the GOP’s “sacrificial lamb” against Democratic Sen. Tim Johnson in South Dakota.

June 22: NY-13 GOP candidate Francis Powers dies at age 67.

June 23: OR-05 GOP candidate Mike Erickson endures more bad press when the woman whom he allegedly gave money to pay for her abortion steps forward and gives her account to the press.

June 23: Seeing the writing on the NY GOP’s wall, state Senate Majority Leader Joseph Bruno announces his retirement.

June 25: Former Assemblyman Matthew Mirones pulls his name from consideration after briefly mulling the open seat race to replace retiring Rep. Vito Fossella (NY-13). NY1 broadcaster Lisa Giovinazzo also declines to run, leaving former Rep. Guy Molinari, the dean of Staten Island Republicans, exasperated.

June 25: GOP Rep. Chris Cannon (UT-03), recently ousted in a primary, speaks candidly on the shape of the Republican Party in Utah and elsewhere: “It doesn’t take a genius to see that Republicans (in office) have lost the credibility of people in America and in the 3rd District.”

June 26: NRCC Communications Director Karen Hanretty admits that “there are no safe Republican seats in this election.”

June 30: Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) admits that it is “impossible” for the GOP to reclaim control of the Senate in the 2008 elections.

June 30: GOP Rep. Lincoln Diaz-Balart is busted for touting labor endorsements from unions that not only did not endorse him, but are actually supporting his Democratic challenger, former Hialeah Mayor Raul Martinez.

July 1: Former Lt. Gov. Michael Steele (R-MD), while on the campaign trail for MD-01 candidate Andy Harris, admits that “the Republican brand quite frankly sucks”.

July 4: Former GOP Rep. Jim Kolbe pulls his support from AZ-08 candidate Tim Bee days after Bee votes to place a constitutional amendment on marriage on the November ballot.

July 6: NRSC Chair John Ensign (R-NV), setting a 3-4 seat loss for the GOP in the Senate as the committee’s goal, offers his take on the 2008 elections: “If you have an R in front of your name, you better run scared.”

July 7: Ex-Rep. Guy Molinari, the unofficial leader of the Staten Island GOP, admits that the party’s chances of holding the open seat of retiring Rep. Vito Fossella (NY-13) are grim: “Based on the candidates that have surfaced so far, yes, we’re going to lose the seat.”

July 8: In the open seat race in Alabama’s heavily conservative 2nd CD, retiring GOP Rep. Terry Everett injects himself in the Republican primary runoff, begging the contestants to stop their negative attacks lest they turn off voters and hand the race to Democrat Bobby Bright.

July 8: Democrat Republican John Kennedy kicks off his U.S. Senate campaign in Louisiana in a mostly empty ballroom.

July 14: Republican Carl Mumpower suspends his campaign against Democratic Rep. Heath Shuler (NC-08) until local party leaders agree to sign a pledge to commit to core Republican principles.

July 15: Staten Island Republicans, still looking for a candidate to replace retiring Rep. Vito Fossella (NY-13) settle on their last choice: former Assemblyman Robert Straniere. Guy Molinari, the unofficial dean of the Staten GOP, fumes: “They couldn’t have made a worse mistake. The party was already in desperate shape. They’ve all but buried it.”

July 16: During a campaign trip to Alaska, Republican candidate Luke Puckett (IN-02) is swarmed by mosquitoes before he can film a video on energy independence.

July 24: Republican Keith Fimian, running for the open seat of retiring Rep. Tom Davis in Virginia’s socially liberal 11th CD, is outed for his ties to socially conservative business groups and his anti-choice views.

July 24: State Rep. Todd Brinkman, who recently lost a primary to GOP wingnut Congresswoman Jean Schmidt (OH-02), spills all: “Jean Schmidt is a lying b—-. She would sell her mother to promote herself. She is a despicable person. She will go any length possible to win, to get what she wants.”

July 26: GOP Rep. Vern Buchanan is hit with allegations of illegal campaign financing.

July 29: GOP Sen. Ted Stevens, an iconic figure in his home state of Alaska, is indicted on criminal charges related to gifts and special favors received from Alaskan oil field services firm VECO. The indictment greatly boosts the chances of Democrat Mark Begich, who was already neck and neck with Stevens in the polls.

July 30: GOP Rep. Tim Walberg (MI-07) bumbles his way through a defense of his votes against funding for early childhood education programs, saying that such programs might allow “a Wiccan from a coven in Ann Arbor” to claim discrimination.

July 31: GOP Rep. Joe Knollenberg (MI-09) is busted by the Swing State Project for scrubbing a racist headline on his blog.

August 1: A longtime friend of GOP dairy magnate Jim Oberweis (IL-11) compares the perennial candidate to fecal matter.

August 4: Republican Senate candidate Bob Schaffer is embarrassed once again, as it is revealed that his 20 year-old son has been posting extremely offensive photos on his Facebook account, including one that reads “Slavery gets shit done”.

August 13: GOP candidate Ed Tinsley, running for the open seat of Rep. Steve Pearce (NM-02), sparks a firestorm when some of his outrageous comments against his Democratic opponent, Harry Teague, at a candidates’ forum are reported on local blogs. At the forum, Tinsley spat: “How can I call my two nephews over there right now [serving in Iraq]… and tell them I’m running against a guy that will cut your throat — that will cut the bottom out of your funding.”

August 13: GOP Rep. Dave Reichert (WA-08) comes under fire for accepting campaign cash from the parent company of Airbus, which is Boeing’s major competition. With 19,000 Boeing employees in his district, Reichert quickly dumps the cash, but not without embarrassment.

August 13: GOP Rep. Bill Sali (ID-01) comes under criticism from the local press for opening his campaign office in the wrong district, and for not adequately separating the boundaries of his congressional and campaign offices.

August 17: Scandal-plagued candidate Mike Erickson, running for the open seat of retiring Rep. Darlene Hooley (OR-05), is busted for attempting to portray a luxury vacation that he took to Cuba in 2004 as a “humanitarian trip”. A copy of the actual itinerary from his trip reveals that Erickson’s time was spent touring cigar factories, attending exclusive nightclubs and luxury restaurants, shooting doves, and watching the cock fights. In his defense, Erickson sputters: “If that’s not a humanitarian trip, I don’t know what is!”

August 18: GOP Rep. Joe Wilson (SC-02) screws the pooch and posts a press release from his Democratic opponent that brands the incumbent as an unwavering proponent of President Bush’s failed policies — right on the front page of his website.

August 18: In a major embarrassment for Republican candidate Jay Love, the Republican Mayor of Dothan and state co-chair of John McCain’s campaign in Alabama, Pat Thomas, endorses Democrat Bobby Bright for Congress.

August 20: GOP Sen. Ted Stevens is denied a home state trial, complicating his re-election efforts.

August 21: The campaign of GOP candidate Blaine Luetkemeyer (MO-09) is busted by the Swing State Project for releasing a deranged statement claiming that Luetkemeyer’s Democratic opponent, state Rep. Judy Baker, hates NASCAR. For the record: Judy Baker loves NASCAR.

August 22: GOP candidate Tim Bee, a highly-touted recruit running against freshman Democratic Rep. Gabrielle Giffords (AZ-08), is roasted by local editorials for forcing taxpayers to cover the security costs related to a private fundraiser he held with President Bush.

August 22: NRSC Chair John Ensign releases a statement stained with his own personal disgust that lambastes his Senate colleagues for not contributing to the party’s 2008 campaign efforts. Ensign announces that he has no choice but to decrease his committee’s expenditure budget for targeted races after previously vowing to match the DSCC “dollar for dollar”. The NRSC also pulls the plug on a planned $6 million reservation in the North Carolina Senate race, despite polls indicating that GOP Sen. Elizabeth Dole is in an increasingly competitive race.

August 26: GOP Rep. Ric Keller (FL-08) barely defeats his primary challenger, a fringe right-wing radio host, by a 53-47 margin, helping prompt prognosticators to consider the incumbent in electoral danger in this marginal district.

August 26: In a big blow to the GOP’s hopes of retaining their at-large House seat in Alaska, corrupt GOP Rep. Don Young defeats Lt. Gov. Sean Parnell by the slimmest of margins in the Republican primary. Polls show Young having a much rougher time against Democratic nominee Ethan Berkowitz than Parnell would have had.

Is there anything that we missed?

Open Thread: June House Cattle Call

We’ve done Senate cattle calls several times in the past, so let’s try something a little more challenging: ranking the House races.

You know what to do: List the competitive House races (as far down as you want to go) in order of their likelihood of flipping. I would suggest making two lists — one for Republican vulnerabilities and the other for Democratic defenses.

You may find SSP’s Competitive House Ratings to be helpful in remembering all the targeted races this year, but don’t let our ratings influence your list. After all, campaigns will be filing their second quarter fundraising reports with the FEC over the next couple of weeks, and our ratings will be due for another revision by then.

Where’s the Pivot Point?

Who’s the most powerful member of the House? If I told you it was Tim Mahoney, you’d probably laugh in my face; after all, he’s a freshman, and a bit of a flake. Well, if you order all members of the House from most liberal to most conservative (using DW-Nominate scores for the 110th Congress), Tim Mahoney is #218 out of 435. He’s smack in the middle of the House, and the whole thing pivots around him, in the same way that Anthony Kennedy holds all the cards on the Supreme Court because he’s #5 out of 9.

There are several things wrong with my proposition, though: first, 435 is a lot larger than 9, and there are a lot of transitory coalitions that form around various topics, so the spectrum isn’t always very clear. You aren’t even going to get aggregators to agree on who goes in what slot (ask National Journal, they’ll tell you that #218 is Mike McIntyre; ask Progressive Punch and they’ll tell it’s Charlie Melancon).

More importantly, just as Matt Stoller mentioned yesterday in regards to 60 as the ‘magic number’ in the Senate, there aren’t very many votes where it actually comes down to the bare minimum. Even controversial things tend to pass by a sizable margin once the initial haggling shakes out (the most recent Iraq Supplemental passed 268-155, and the FISA Amendments passed 293-129); actual 218-217 votes are almost unheard of. As he sagely pointed out, the key is to build the coalitions and implement the infrastructure that allow progressives to control the discursive arena in Congress regardless of actual numbers so that the progressive POV becomes more of an institutional inevitability.

Nevertheless, some of that sense of the ‘possible’ within that discursive arena is directly influenced by the seat count. Think back to the backstory behind the FISA vote last week: a lot of Dems voted with leadership, but leadership’s hand wasn’t forced by a widespread popular uprising, just by the 21 Blue Dogs who signed the January letter of intent to jump on board the Republicans’ discharge petition. We’ll probably never know who those 21 signatories were (although, given the spectrum in the House, one can assume it included Mahoney, McIntyre, and Melancon), but it’s clear they turned the tide on the FISA amendments. Looking at the pivot point, Pelosi could have safely ignored 12 Blue Dogs (233 – 12 = 221), but she couldn’t safely ignore 21 (233 – 21 = 212).

What if, on the other hand, there weren’t fewer Blue Dogs, but rather more Progressives in seats that are currently occupied by moderate (or, in a few possibilities, extreme) Republicans? If there were only 7 more Democrats, all Progressive or New Dem, then Pelosi also could have ignored the 21 Blue Dogs (240 – 21 = 219). Now, of course, this is pure speculation that only 21 Dems would have signed the discharge petition, but my point stands that it would take only a few more net Progressives to move the core Blue Dogs past the pivot point and thus out of the House’s driver’s seat (or at least out of reach of the steering wheel). In shorter words, the goal for the 111th Congress needs to be: Progressives + New Dems > Blue Dogs + Republicans.

More over the flip (including many tables)…

So the question is: how many progressives (they don’t have to be card-carrying members of the Progressive Caucus; non-capitulating New Dems and unaffiliated types work fine too) do we need to add above the pivot point in order to push all of the Blue Dogs down the spectrum, to below the pivot point? Here’s where we get to break out the tables, starting with where we are right now in the current 110th Congress:

Rank District 110th Rep. 110th Score Caucus Bad Votes
215.5 FL-02 Boyd -0.198 BDC Iraq, FISA
215.5 TX-28 Cuellar -0.198 NDC, CHC Iraq, FISA
217 MO-04 Skelton -0.193 Unaff. Iraq, FISA
218 FL-16 Mahoney -0.186 BDC, NDC, Fr. Iraq, FISA
219.5 MN-07 C. Peterson -0.177 BDC Iraq, FISA
219.5 TN-04 L. Davis -0.177 BDC Iraq, FISA
221 TN-06 Gordon -0.165 BDC Iraq, FISA
222 UT-02 Matheson -0.163 BDC Iraq, FISA
223 TX-22 Lampson -0.158 BDC, NDC, Fr. Iraq, FISA
224 AZ-05 Mitchell -0.148 NDC, Fr. Iraq, FISA
225 PA-10 Carney -0.144 BDC, NDC, Fr. Iraq, FISA
226 GA-08 Marshall -0.135 BDC Iraq, FISA
227 PA-04 Altmire -0.12 NDC, Fr. Iraq, FISA
228 OK-02 Boren -0.119 BDC Iraq, FISA
229 IN-08 Ellsworth -0.118 BDC, Fr. Iraq, FISA
230 AL-05 Cramer -0.112 BDC Iraq, FISA
231.5 IN-02 Donnelly -0.107 BDC, Fr. Iraq, FISA
231.5 NC-11 Shuler -0.107 BDC, Fr. Iraq, FISA
233 GA-12 Barrow -0.080 BDC, NDC Iraq, FISA
234.5 CT-04 Shays 0.241 MSP Iraq, FISA
234.5 NJ-02 LoBiondo 0.241 MSP Iraq, FISA

As you can see from this table, Pelosi is able to consider legislation without needing to rely on the worst 15 Blue Dogs on the final vote. (Again, though, she’s still affected by what happens in committee and other back-room wrangling.) However, there are a lot more Blue Dogs than that, if you continue on up the totem pole.

One thing worth noting is that 7 of those 15 Blue Dogs below the pivot point are freshmen, indicating that maybe we didn’t come as far in the 2006 elections as we thought we did (many of our pickups were in red districts inhabited by corrupt or incompetent Republicans… 2008 looks to be somewhat different, as a lot of the GOP fruit that outright spoiled has been picked and now the lowest-hanging fruit is mostly in moderate suburban districts, which is what this year’s Red to Blue targeting reflects). Although the pivot point is much better than where it was in the 109th Congress (where #218 was Jim Gerlach, not only giving the Rs control of the House but giving Dennis Hastert license to ignore the 14 Republicans to the left of Gerlach), we swelled the ranks of the Blue Dogs in 2006, so much so that the pivot point is right in the middle of the Blue Dog caucus.

Now let’s look at where we might be after the 2008 elections. I’m going to look at three different scenarios: a pessimistic scenario (where we only pick up 13 seats: the Lean D and Toss-up seats according to Swing State Project), an average scenario (where we also pick up the Lean R seats, giving us 26 seats), and a wildly optimistic scenario (where we also pick up the Likely R seats, giving us 56 new seats). I’m plugging in the new freshmen according to the scores I predicted for them last week. (I also need to fit the three new mid-term guys in there: based on their records so far, I’m assigning Childers and Cazayoux a score of – 0.200 and Foster a score of – 0.300. I also need to give a score to the three new Cuban-American reps, who didn’t fit in my formula; for an easy solution, I’ll just give them each – 0.400.) Let’s start with the pessimistic scenario:

Rank District 110th Rep. 110th Score Caucus Bad Votes
216.5 TN-08 Tanner -0.230 BDC Iraq, FISA
216.5 TX-27 Ortiz -0.230 CHC Iraq, FISA
218 PA-17 Holden -0.227 BDC Iraq, FISA
219 CA-11 McNerney -0.226 Unaff., Fr. FISA
220 GA-02 S. Bishop -0.22 BDC, CBC Iraq, FISA
221 LA-03 Melancon -0.218 BDC, NDC Iraq, FISA
222 AZ-08 Giffords -0.215 BDC, NDC, Fr. Iraq, FISA
223 PA-12 Murtha -0.21 Unaff. Iraq, FISA
224 IL-08 Bean -0.209 BDC, NDC Iraq, FISA
225 TN-05 Cooper -0.208 BDC Iraq, FISA
226 MS-04 Taylor -0.207 BDC Iraq, FISA
227 IN-09 Hill -0.204 BDC, NDC, Fr. Iraq
229 LA-06 Cazayoux -0.200 Unaff., Fr. Iraq, FISA
229 MS-01 Childers -0.200 Unaff., Fr. Iraq, FISA
229 OH-18 Space -0.200 BDC, Fr. Iraq, FISA
231.5 FL-02 Boyd -0.198 BDC Iraq, FISA
231.5 TX-28 Cuellar -0.198 NDC, CHC Iraq, FISA

Under this scenario, Tim Holden becomes the new pivot point. Although we’re past the point where 21 holdouts can provoke a mutiny, we’re still in the Land of the Blue Dog. We’ve added 13 new Democrats, and the good news is that all of them fall above the pivot point, pushing the list down so that the pivot point is one of the less objectionable Blue Dogs.

Now let’s look at the average scenario (26 pickups, including all of the Lean Rs):

Rank District 110th Rep. 110th Score Caucus Bad Votes
216 WV-01 Mollohan -0.269 Unaff. Iraq
217 KY-06 Chandler -0.264 BDC, NDC Iraq, FISA
218 CA-20 Costa -0.259 BDC, CHC Iraq, FISA
219 GA-13 D. Scott -0.257 BDC, NDC,  CBC Iraq, FISA
220 SD-AL Herseth -0.253 BDC, NDC Iraq, FISA
221 ND-AL Pomeroy -0.247 BDC Iraq, FISA
222 TX-17 C. Edwards -0.246 Unaff. Iraq, FISA
223 KS-02 Boyda -0.239 Unaff., Fr. Iraq, FISA
224 AR-04 Ross -0.235 BDC Iraq, FISA
225 NC-07 McIntyre -0.234 BDC, NDC Iraq, FISA
226 PA-08 P. Murphy -0.233 BDC, NDC, Fr. FISA
227 VA-09 Boucher -0.231 Unaff. Iraq, FISA
228.5 TN-08 Tanner -0.230 BDC Iraq, FISA
228.5 TX-27 Ortiz -0.230 CHC Iraq, FISA

Now we’re getting a little closer to the light at the end of the tunnel. Under this scenario, Jim Costa becomes the pivot point. He’s a Blue Dog, and there are still a few Blue Dogs above him, but we’re starting to reach the bottom of New Dem terrain. Of the 26 Dems we’ve added under this scenario, only one of them is projected to slot in below the pivot point: Paul Carmouche in LA-04 (-0.200).

Now let’s look at the extremely optimistic scenario (56 pickups, including all Likely Rs):

Rank District 110th Rep. 110th Score Caucus Bad Votes
215 WA-09 A. Smith -0.308 NDC FISA
216 TX-15 Hinojosa -0.304 CHC Iraq, FISA
222 AK-AL Berkowitz -0.300
222 AZ-01 Kirkpatrick -0.300
222 FL-13 Jennings -0.300
222 IL-14 Foster -0.300 Unaff. Iraq
222 IL-18 Callahan -0.300
222 MN-06 Tinklenburg -0.300
222 MO-06 Barnes -0.300
222 MO-09 Baker -0.300
222 NC-08 Kissell -0.300
222 OH-16 Boccieri -0.300
222 WV-02 Barth -0.300
228 MD-02 Ruppersburger -0.292 Unaff. Iraq, FISA
229 TX-16 Reyes -0.291 CHC Iraq, FISA
230 OH-06 C. Wilson -0.289 BDC, Fr. Iraq, FISA
231.5 IA-03 Boswell -0.288 BDC FISA
231.5 PA-07 Sestak -0.288 NDC, Fr. Iraq, FISA
233 AL-07 A. Davis -0.286 NDC, CBC Iraq, FISA
234 FL-22 Klein -0.278 NDC, Fr. FISA
235 CO-03 Salazar -0.275 BDC, CHC Iraq, FISA
236 NY-20 Gillibrand -0.272 BDC, NDC, Fr. Iraq, FISA
237.5 AR-02 Snyder -0.271 NDC Iraq, FISA
237.5 CA-18 Cardoza -0.271 BDC, CHC FISA
239 WV-01 Mollohan -0.269 Unaff. Iraq
240 KY-06 Chandler -0.264 BDC, NDC Iraq, FISA

We’re finally starting to make some progress. Under this scenario, #218 is part of an 11-way tie, but #216 is Ruben Hinojosa. We’re pretty much out of Blue Dog territory here, and the pivot point has started to move into the realm of the New Dems. Unfortunately, we’re also starting to reach a point of diminishing returns here: to bring about a 56-seat pickup, this requires sweeping not only all the moderate suburban seats but also a lot of seats that are more rural and conservative, meaning that we’ve added to the ranks of Dems who fall below the pivot point (18 of the new 56 fall at or below the pivot point).

And unfortunately, you can see we’re still at a pivot point where most of the veterans have voted the wrong way on the most recent Iraq Supplemental and FISA bills. For instance, we’re still a little short of pushing down Lipinski, Kanjorski, Etheridge, Dicks, or Dennis Moore.  However, the important thing to remember is that it will be a different playing field: one where, most likely, they’ll be working with President Obama rather than fretting over how best to oppose President Bush. Congress won’t need to act as a brake on out-of-control Iraq policy, and FISA… well… FISA remains a big question mark, but it’s unlikely that Congress would need act as a brake on further attempts to expand the President’s unchecked powers.

Instead, we’ll be needing to worry about whether we have enough votes to overcome any Blue Dog defections from Obama’s agenda. No doubt there will be enough votes to overcome any defections on the relatively uncontroversial stuff (there was only one Dem defection on the SCHIP veto override [Jim Marshall], and only two defections on the Employee Free Choice Act [Boren and Taylor]). But we need enough Progressive votes in the House to push Blue Dog objections to, say, universal health care and more progressive tax brackets, down below the pivot point.

One last Stupid Excel Trick before wrapping it up. This left me thinking of the last time the Democrats had a Congressional majority: the first two years of the Clinton administration, which were a legislative disaster by most anyone’s standards, where conservative Democrats (I suppose they were still ‘Boll Weevils’ back then; the term ‘Blue Dog’ hadn’t really been invented yet) scuttled most attempts to implement anything other than the most incremental change. Let’s take a quick look at where the pivot point was back then:

Rank District 103rd Rep. 103rd Score
216 WI-01 Barca -0.169
217 TX-02 C. Wilson -0.166
218 AR-01 Lincoln -0.161
219 TX-25 Andrews -0.154
220 CA-19 Lehman -0.152
Very very long break…
260 LA-03 Tauzin 0.083
261 NY-23 Boehlert (R) 0.088
262 FL-01 Hutto 0.090
263 ME-02 Snowe (R) 0.098

(This table doesn’t include 3 Republicans who fall in the gap: Morella at 250, Fish at 256, and Gilman at 258, and 1 Democrat who’s off the chart: Ralph Hall at 272).

If there’s any wonder why Clinton got hosed during his first term, this is it. Even though he started office with a gaping 258-176-1 edge in the House (right where we’d be under the average scenario from above, with 26 pickups), look at the DW-Nominate score for his pivot point: Blanche Lincoln (who now has graduated to the Senate): – 0.161. (And yes, right above her is Charlie Wilson, of Charlie Wilson’s War fame.) That’s a significantly lower score than the current pivot point we’re saddled with (Tim Mahoney, at – 0.186). Remember that these are DW-Nominate scores, which are designed for comparing one Congress against another and measure only left-to-right movement, not the distortions caused by the size of the caucus.

Clinton had fully 41 Democratic representatives below the pivot point, and most of them were more conservative than your average Blue Dog today. In fact, 20 of them were more conservative than today’s most conservative Dem (John Barrow)! (Only 3 of those 20 remain today, and only one as a Dem [Gene Taylor], with two party-switchers [Ralph Hall and Nathan Deal]; other delightful rogues from that gallery include Jim Traficant and Gary Condit.) So, by that measure, consider that we may well have a more progressive House right now than Clinton had to work with, despite the showy seat count in the 103rd (thanks to fewer, but more cohesive, Dems). Adding more progressives in the next Congress, on top of what he have now, will only help us more.

NJ-04: Smith Opposed Bankruptcy Protection for Troops

In 2004 and 2005 Smith voted against protecting our servicemen and servicewomen from bankruptcy. In 2005, George Bush signed into law harsher bankruptcy rules for American facing heavy levels of debt. Chris Smith voted against measures against extending special bankruptcy protections to deployed servicemen and servicewomen. [Vote # 107 2005, Vote #9 2004]

This year, roughly half of New Jersey’s National Guard is being actively deployed to Iraq. According to recent data, over forty percent of Guardsman and Reservists lose income when they leave their civilian jobs for active duty. Many reservists left thinking they would be deployed for 6 months and have ended up staying for a year or even longer and may be shipped out again. Additionally, many military families face difficult financial challenges. Over 20% of military families report having received WIC aid or food stamps from the government. [Los Angles Time 5/16/05; Washington Post/Kaiser Foundation Military Families Survey March 2004]

More after the jump.

Instead of offering reasonable protections to members of the military, Chris Smith voted to raise his salary by $32,600 since 1999. [CRS: Salaries of Members of Congress Updated January 8, 2008; 1999 Vote #300; 2000 Vote #419; 2001 House Vote #267; 2002 House Vote #322; 2003 House Vote #463; 2004 House Vote #451; 2005 House Vote #327; 2006 vote #261; 2007 Vote #580]

“While Chris Smith was busy raising his own salary he was also denying bankruptcy protection to servicemen and servicewomen who are taking a pay cut to fight for their country. They deserve an explanation,” said Josh Zeitz campaign manager Steve D’Amico.

This kind of vote is exactly why we need to elect Josh Zeitz and bring Chris Smith back to New Jersey. I know you know that already, so if you can volunteer, please email me at: ian_at_joshzeitz_dot_com. To learn more about Josh and his stance on the issues, please visit his website.

PA-05: McCracken for Congress — Weekly Update — June 22nd 2008

This past week had important events scheduled every day ending with a very busy weekend.  Here is a brief rundown of the highlights of the week:

The first major joint debate between the 2 candidates in the 5th Congressional District was held on Tuesday at the CBICC luncheon.  The event was broadcast later that evening on PCN.  The feedback I’ve received is that the debate clearly showed the contrast where I stand on the important issues, both regional and national, and where my opponent stands.  The important topics addressed included healthcare, the Iraq war and the growing crisis of increasing gas and energy costs.

On Thursday, I attended an open house for the expansion of Murmac Farms outside of Bellefonte.  This was a very educational trip for me as I got to see the operation of a modern dairy farm with 1000 cows that are milked daily.  Speaking with the owner, he explained to me the trials of running the operation which is a 7 day a week, year round operation.  It is a family business with 2 of his 3 sons also living and working on the farm.  The farm also employs around 25 people on a full time basis.  The most interesting thing I learned was how technology is used on a modern dairy farm.  Every cow has a device around their neck that is read as they move through the process of milking.  The data is retrieved using wireless technology and fed back into computers which monitor their daily milk output and how much feed they consume.  

Friday I traveled to Altoona to attend the annual convention of the Pennsylvania Federation of Democratic Women.   I was honored to be one of the featured speakers along with fellow congressional candidates Tony Barr from the 9th district, Kathy Dahlkemper from the 4th district, State Representative Scott Conklin and Auditor General Jack Wagner.  

The week ended with campaign chairman Henry Guthrie traveling with me to Wellsboro on Saturday for the Laurel Festival and Parade.  The parade was late in starting due to a nasty passing thunderstorm and the parade had to end abruptly when another storm passed through the area.  However, it was another enjoyable visit to Tioga County and I got to speak with a good number of people while I attended the festival prior to the parade.  

On the way home from Tioga County, we made a side trip to Williamsport to stop in at the headquarters of the Lycoming County Democratic Party.  It was inspiring to see 4 young people from the Obama campaign along with a person from the county Democratic Party working at the headquarters on a Saturday evening.  It shows how committed people are to positive change in our country.

Finally on Sunday, Kelly, Amanda and I traveled to State College for 2 house parties hosted by Art and Louise Goldschmidt from 3 to 5 and then it was on to Mary Jane Havanec’s house from 5 to 7.  Both house parties offered a great opportunity to talk about the issues important to the people in attendance.  I was also encouraged by several college students who are Obama supporters that came to Art and Louise’s party.   It is great to see their commitment, not only to Senator Obama, but to the entire Democratic slate of candidates.

It was a very busy week for the campaign with many people taking time to be involved.  I want to thank all the Centre County Democrats who turned out to support me at the debate on Tuesday.  I also want to thank the Democrats in Tioga County that arranged for a booth at the Laurel Festival and finally, thanks to the Goldschmidt’s and the Havanec’s for hosting the house parties on Sunday and for everyone who took the time to come out and meet with me.

Below is information about a fundraising event we will be having in Clearfield on July 17th:

McCracken for Congress Dinner

Thursday, July 17th at 5:30PM

Lawrence Township Fire Company Social Hall

Mill Road – Clearfield

Come out and support the campaign to elect Mark B. McCracken to Congress from the 5th Congressional District.  Cost $20 per person – Meal catered by the Country Butcher – Door Prizes – Call for tickets at 765-6821 or 577-3374 or email requests to mccrackenforcongress@verizon.net .

Mark B. McCracken

Your Candidate For Congress

————————————————————————————————–

This diary is cross-posted at McCracken’s campaign blog, PA’s Blue Fifth

Mark McCracken for Congress

ActBlue page

The House Seats Where We Can Make the Most Progress This Year

By popular demand (meaning questions from at least two different commenters), I need to do a follow-up to The Class of 2008: Who’s Going to Be Progressive? from last Friday that sees it through to the next step. I had previously investigated The House Seats Where We Made the Most Progress in 2006, comparing the DW-Nominate scores of new Democrats elected in 2006 against the Republicans who occupied the seats until 2006. The question arose: which seats will potentially have the biggest similar right-to-left shifts in 2008?

There’s a big problem there. The demographic prediction method I was using in the Class of 2008 diary was, at best, a blunt instrument, and I feel a little embarrassed using it even to estimate broad categories like “Progressive” or “Blue Dog,” let alone using it to extrapolate specific legislators’ future DW-Nominate scores to three significant digits. However, I quickly realized the importance of making some educated guesses about this topic, pushed along by Mimikatz‘s diary over at Open Left. It’s important information for deciding what races to give our relatively-tiny netroots dollars to, where we can have the most leverage in moving the needle to the left.

As an added bonus, most of the races that topped the list are lower on prognosticators’ watch lists. Many are on the DCCC’s “Emerging Races” list and on Swing State Project‘s “Likely R” or “Races to Watch” lists. Again, that stretches the effect of our dollars, and it means our targeted giving can help clue the DCCC in for what deserves “Red to Blue” status instead. Here are the top 20 races for maximum right-to-left impact:

District 110th Rep. 110th Score 111th Rep. 111th Score Difference
CA-46 Rohrabacher (R) 0.836 Cook (D) -0.600 -1.436
NJ-05 Garrett (R) 0.771 Shulman (D) -0.600 -1.371
AZ-03 Shadegg (R) 0.923 Lord (D) -0.400 -1.323
CA-50 Bilbray (R) 0.715 Leibham (D) -0.600 -1.315
FL-24 Feeney (R) 0.768 Kosmas? (D) -0.350 -1.118
CO-04 Musgrave (R) 0.684 Markey (D) -0.400 -1.084
ID-01 Sali (R) 0.852 Minnick (D) -0.200 -1.052
TX-07 Culberson (R) 0.637 Skelly (D) -0.400 -1.037
MI-07 Walberg (R) 0.623 Schauer (D) -0.400 -1.023
MN-02 Kline (R) 0.615 Sarvi (D) -0.400 -1.015
OH-01 Chabot (R) 0.665 Dreihaus (D) -0.350 -1.015
IL-13 Biggert (R) 0.508 Harper (D) -0.500 -1.008
MN-06 Bachmann (R) 0.703 Tinklenburg (D) -0.300 -1.003
CA-26 Dreier (R) 0.495 Warner (D) -0.500 -0.995
FL-15 Weldon (R – open) 0.590 Blythe? (D) -0.400 -0.990
IL-06 Roskam (R) 0.538 Morganthaler (D) -0.450 -0.988
NY-13 Fosella (R – open) 0.518 McMahon? (D) -0.450 -0.968
NV-02 Heller (R) 0.561 Derby (D) -0.400 -0.961
NE-02 Terry (R) 0.545 Esch (D) -0.400 -0.945
NC-10 McHenry (R) 0.745 Johnson (D) -0.200 -0.945

More over the flip…

Now let’s look at the rest of the Toss-ups and Lean races, that didn’t fit into the previous table. These tend not to have as big a right-to-left impact, as these tend to be races where a Main Street (i.e. ‘moderate’) Republican currently occupies the seat. (Although in some cases, the moderate Republican is retiring and a probably-more-conservative Republican is running to replace him or her.) As you can probably tell, this is where the “Red to Blue” races cluster.

District 110th Rep. 110th Score 111th Rep. 111th Score Difference
MI-09 Knollenberg (R) 0.428 Peters (D) -0.500 -0.928
WA-08 Reichert (R) 0.324 Burner (D) -0.600 -0.924
IL-10 Kirk (R) 0.323 Seals (D) -0.600 -0.923
OH-02 Schmidt (R) 0.535 Wulsin (D) -0.350 -0.885
MN-03 Ramstad (R – open) 0.433 Madia (D) -0.450 -0.883
NY-26 Reynolds (R – open) 0.462 Powers? (D) -0.400 -0.862
CT-04 Shays (R) 0.241 Himes (D) -0.600 -0.841
VA-11 Davis (R – open) 0.419 Connolly (D) -0.400 -0.819
OH-15 Pryce (R – open) 0.413 Kilroy (D) -0.400 -0.813
NY-29 Kuhl (R) 0.358 Massa (D) -0.450 -0.808
MO-06 Graves (R) 0.499 Barnes (D) -0.300 -0.799
NJ-03 Saxton (R – open) 0.288 Adler (D) -0.500 -0.788
NJ-07 Ferguson (R – open) 0.280 Stender (D) -0.500 -0.780
NM-01 Wilson (R – open) 0.317 Heinrich (D) -0.450 -0.767
NY-25 Walsh (R – open) 0.312 Maffei (D) -0.450 -0.762
NC-08 Hayes (R) 0.457 Kissell (D) -0.300 -0.757
IL-11 Weller (R – open) 0.386 Halvorson (D) -0.350 -0.736
NV-03 Porter (R) 0.324 Titus (D) -0.400 -0.724
AK-AL Young (R) 0.401 Berkowitz? (D) -0.300 -0.701
LA-04 McCrery (R – open) 0.482 Carmouche (D) -0.200 -0.682
AZ-01 Renzi (R – open) 0.337 Kirkpatrick? D) -0.300 -0.637
OH-16 Regula (R – open) 0.325 Boccieri (D) -0.300 -0.625

Finally, some of you may be wondering where the smallest right-to-left impact would be felt. That would be MD-01, where Wayne Gilchrest is one of the most moderate Republicans in the House (0.257), and district demographics predict Frank Kratovil as Likely New Dem, Possible Blue Dog (- 0.350), for a difference of – 0.607. (Bear in mind that the Republican candidate this year, though, is Andy Harris, who’s well to the right of Gilchrest, so this race gains some importance.) IL-18 is runner-up, and a similar case (Aaron Schock is likely to be well to the right of retiring Ray LaHood). This leaves IA-04 as the race with a GOP incumbent and the smallest impact (Tom Latham at 0.412 versus Becky Greenwald, predicted at – 0.200, difference of – 0.612).

If you’re wondering where the likely DW-Nominate scores came from, the short answer is: my butt. The longer answer is, I assigned a relatively round number to each category from my Class of 2008 diary, based on where Progressives, sorta-Progressives, New Dems, and so on, tended to cluster. The assigned value, however doesn’t seem as important in providing the right-to-left shift as just how wingnutty the current Republican is; see how much correlation there is between my first list and the list of vulnerable Republicans as predicted by my PVI/Vote Index.

Here are the assigned values (along with the Dem representatives who have scores in the 110th closest to those scores, so you have a point of comparison):

Likely Progressives: – 0.600 (Diane Watson, Mike Honda, Alcee Hastings)

Likely Progressives, Possible New Dems: – 0.500 (Zoe Lofgren, E.B. Johnson, Charlie Rangel)

Likely New Dems, Possible Progressives: – 0.450 (Al Green, Tom Allen, Loretta Sanchez)

Likely New Dems: – 0.400 (Albio Sires, John Yarmuth, Sander Levin)

Likely New Dems, Possible Blue Dogs: – 0.350 (Mel Carnahan, Shelly Berkley, Brian Higgins)

Likely Blue Dogs, Possible New Dems: – 0.300 (Ruben Hinojosa, Dutch Ruppersburger, Silvestre Reyes)

Likely Blue Dogs: – 0.200 (Baron Hill, Zack Space, Allen Boyd)

Based on people’s comments from the Class of 2008 diary where they gave some anecdotal evidence that so-and-so scored too low, I gave a +0.100 bonus to Schauer, Kissell, Baker (in MO-09), and Barth, lifting them out of Blue Dog terrain. Please keep the comments coming, in case there are any other cases you see where someone’s ranking doesn’t pass the smell test.

Exxon Ed Whitfield: Asleep at the Wheel

Boy, soliciting contributions from, and voting for the special interests must be really tiring work. Being Mitch McConnell’s favorite lackey in the Kentucky Republican Party machine must be too. Exxon Eddie has been a busy man, and unfortunately it is catching up with him. He is looking pretty tired……

When Veterans needed him to stand up for them on the benefits they had earned and were promised:

Whitfield voted against a $53 Million boost for Veteran’s Health care and benefits.  The vote was against an amendment to the Military Quality of Life and Veterans Affairs funding bill to add $53 million for veterans health care and other benefits, offset by a 9% cut to BRAC.  The amendment would add $8 million for combat-related trauma care, $6 million for poly-trauma centers to support wounded troops once they return to their homes, $9 million for VA medical and prosthetic research and $7 million for 100 additional staff who process claims for compensation and pension benefits.  Finally, the amendment would provide $23 million to help approximately 4,100 souses of service members with children whose spouse died during the War on Terrorism between September 11, 2001 and November 30, 2004 by making them eligible for Dependency and Indemnity Compensation.  The amendment failed 213-214 – Whitfield was the deciding vote which denied these benefits to injured veterans.  (Leadership Document, “Medical Quality Democratic Amendment Final.”)

[HR 2528, Vote #224, 5/26/05; Failed 213-214; R 19-210; D 193-4; I 1-0]

Exxon Ed Whitfield was asleep at the wheel:

Ed Whitfield

While others fought for Ethics in Goverment:

Whitfield voted to Weaken House Ethics Rules.  The new rules would allow lobbyists to cater meals to members’ offices and let charities pay for lawmakers to travel and stay at golf resorts and other locales.  The measure would allow outside interests to pay for “perishable food or refreshments offered to members of an office.”  For example, a lobbying firm representing pharmaceutical interests sent in dinner for House speaker J. Dennis Hastert’s (R-IL) staff while they were working late on a prescription drug bill.  The weaker rules passed, 221-203.  Whitfield has since traveled abroad at the expense of lobbyists who sit on the boards of non-profit organizations.  

[HRS 5, Vote #6, 1/4/2005; Passed 220-195; R 220-0; D 0-194; D 0-1].

Exxon Eddie was Asleep at the Wheel:

Ed Whitfield

When Americans needed a break from Price Gouging:

Whitfield Opposed Cracking Down on Price Gouging and Lowering Gas Prices.  The vote was against a measure to provide the Federal Trade Commission with new authority to investigate and prosecute those who engage in predatory pricing, from oil companies on down to gas stations, with the emphasis on those who profit the most.  This includes price gouging of gasoline and natural gas, home heating oil and propane.  The measure increased funding for the low-income home energy assistance program through fines from price-gouging companies and created a strategic refinery reserve with capacity equal to 5% of the total United States demand for gasoline, home heating oi8l and other refined petroleum products.

]HR 3893, Vote #517, 10/7/2005; Failed 199-222; R 2-222; D 196-0; I 1-0].

Exxon Eddie was asleep at the wheel:

Ed Whitfield

Finally, when Kentucky’s Coal Miners needed a friend to fight for safer working conditions for them:

Whitfield Voted to Put Coal Miners at Greater Health Risk

[HR 2660, Vote #349, 7/10/2003; Failed 216-216; R207-19; D 9-195; I 0-1]

The vote would allow for new rules allowing four times the amount of coal dust previously legal in underground mines.  Under the proposal, operators could violate a standard spelled out in the 1969 federal mine safety law that specifically says respirators are not to be used as a substitute for otherwise lowering the level of dust in mines.  An effort to block the new fule failed 210-212.

You guessed it, Exxon Ed Whitfield was asleep at the wheel:

Ed Whitfield

All these years of representing the special interests and Corporate America over the interests of the average working American have taken a toll on Exxon Ed Whitfield. He needs rest, and where better to get it than beautiful, sunny Florida where he lives?? Lets send him there to catch up on his beauty sleep.

You can go a long way helping do that here:

http://www.actblue.com/page/am…

Best wishes everyone!!    

Who Changed Their Tune on Iraq Supplemental and FISA

Within one day of each other, we suddenly have votes that take us right back to where we were a year ago, with repeat capitulations on the Iraq Supplemental and FISA. While I’m not happy about these votes, I don’t have any ranting to add to this matter, as that’s not really Swing State Project style; I’ll leave that to Glenn Greenwald and the good folks over at Open Left and Daily Kos. (In fact, I feel a little uncomfortable using ‘capitulation,’ since it’s always more complex than that, but what the hell… this is the blogosphere, where nuance goes to die.)

What interested me is that now we have a series of bookends, where we can measure how far we’ve come on changing the debate on funding the Iraq War and on FISA. Short answer, judging by the raw vote totals, is: not very far on the Iraq War, and we’ve gone way backwards on FISA. (Although comparing today’s FISA vote against the “Protect America Act” from last August is kind of apples and oranges, as today seemed to turn more on the narrow issue of retroactive immunity for telecoms rather than the overarching issue of spying on American citizens. I’d guess that fewer Congresspeople were bothered by the idea of letting the telecoms skate than by the much larger issues that were at stake last August.)

What I’m using for comparison purposes is, on the issue of the Iraq Supplemental, HR 2206 Roll Call 425 from May 24, 2007 (when the blogosphere first seemed to realize that, hey, wait a minute, maybe we aren’t going to be able to extract ourselves from Iraq with Bush still in office), versus HR 2642 Roll Call 431 from yesterday. On the issue of FISA, I’m comparing S 1927 Roll Call 836 from Aug. 4, 2007 (which was last year’s other big blogospheric freak-out, and the impetus for the “Bush Dog” project at Open Left), versus HR 6034 Roll Call 437 from earlier today.

Iraq Supplemental:

2007 total: 280 aye – 142 no – 11 NV

Dems in 2007: 86 aye – 140 no – 6 NV

GOP in 2007: 194 aye – 2 no – 5 NV

2008 total: 268 aye – 155 no – 12 NV

Dems in 2008: 80 aye – 151 no – 5 NV

GOP in 2008: 188 aye – 4 no – 7 NV

13 who flipped from aye to no (i.e. bad to good): Rob Andrews, Joe Baca, Leonard Boswell, GK Butterfield, Dennis Cardoza, John Dingell, Steve Kagen, Kendrick Meek (FL), Nick Rahall, Bart Stupak, Bennie Thompson (MS), Debbie Wasserman Schulz… and Jeff Flake (R)

3 who flipped from no to aye (i.e. good to bad): Corrine Brown, Artur Davis, and Tim Ryan

10 Dems and 1 Republicans went from no vote to no: the Republican was John Campbell (R). 4 Dems went from no to no vote. 7 Republicans and 4 Dems went from no vote to yes: the Dems were our three new guys, Bill Foster, Don Cazayoux, and Travis Childers, plus Howard Berman. 7 Republicans and 1 Dem went from yes to no vote: Pete Visclosky was the lone Dem.

Let’s take a look at who flipped the right way. The list includes recipients of some serious netroots pressure: Leonard Boswell (via his primary with Ed Fallon) and Debbie Wasserman Schulz (via the kerfuffle over the Cuban-American districts). It also includes Rob Andrews, who seems to have been burnishing his liberal credentials as he seeks statewide office in a blue state (he got skunked on NJ-Sen, but now rumor has it he’s angling for the newly created Lt. Governor position in 2009). Also, there are two Republicans who flipped, and it’s two of the most conservative: Flake and Campbell. I have to wonder whether they’ve truly turned on the war, or are engaged in a fit of libertarian pique over having to actually pay for it.

I’m still scratching my head over the ones who flipped the other way. The common thread I can think of is that Davis (who already votes the wrong way on FISA) and Ryan are both eyeing statewide office in red states.

FISA

2007 total: 227 aye – 183 no – 23 NV

Dems in 2007: 41 aye – 181 no – 9 NV

GOP in 2007: 186 aye – 2 no – 14 NV

2008 total: 293 aye – 129 no – 13 NV

Dems in 2008: 105 aye – 128 no – 3 NV

GOP in 2008: 188 aye – 1 no – 10 NV

2 who flipped from aye to no (i.e. bad to good): Baron Hill and Tim Walz

58 who flipped from no to aye (i.e. good to bad): Gary Ackerman, Mike Arcuri, Joe Baca, Brian Baird, Shelly Berkley, Howard Berman, Marion Berry, Sanford Bishop, Tim Bishop, Rick Boucher, Nancy Boyda, Corrine Brown, GK Butterfield, Dennis Cardoza, Kathy Castor, Emanuel Cleaver, Jim Clyburn, Joe Crowley, Norm Dicks, Rahm Emanuel, Eliot Engel, Gabby Giffords, Kirsten Gillibrand, Al Green, Gene Green, Luis Gutierrez, Jane Harman, Tim Holden, Paul Kanjorski, Dale Kildee, Ron Kind, Jim Langevin, Nita Lowey, Tim Mahoney, Carolyn McCarthy, Jerry McNerney, Greg Meeks, Dennis Moore, John Murtha, Solomon Ortiz, Nancy Pelosi, Ed Perlmutter, Nick Rahall, Silvestre Reyes, Dutch Ruppersberger, Adam Schiff, David Scott, Joe Sestak, Brad Sherman, Albio Sires, Adam Smith, John Spratt, Bart Stupak, Ellen Tauscher, Bennie Thompson, Mark Udall, John Yarmuth

9 Dems went from no vote to no; this includes some of our newest: Bill Foster, and Donna Edwards, on her second day on the job. 3 Dems and 1 Republican went from no to no vote; the Republican was Walter Jones. 12 Republicans and 6 Dems went from no vote to yes: the Dems were Don Cazayoux, Travis Childers, Ruben Hinojosa, Ron Klein, Laura Richardson, and Ike Skelton. 8 Republicans went from yes to no vote.

That’s a long list of Democratic defections (although it’s hard to call it a defection when it includes all the leadership). As for the two guys who turned the right way, Baron Hill and Tim Walz, they get big ups; I think in both cases they’re freshmen feeling more confident of their abilities to survive in their Republican-leaning districts.

The one Republican who voted no both times on FISA may surprise you: Tim Johnson, of IL-15, not generally known as a rebellious spirit. As for Ron Paul, the great defender of our liberties? Seems like he’s been taking some liberties of his own, as he managed to miss both FISA votes.

The Class of 2008: Who’s Going to be Progressive?

A few days ago I wrote about the House districts that made the greatest progress in 2006, moving from Republican to Democrat and, in the best cases, moving from wingnut to progressive. That left me wondering, however, where would the greatest changes in the House come in 2008? Unfortunately, that would require knowing where on the liberal/conservative spectrum the likely new freshmen in 2008 are likely to fall. That’s something where there won’t be useful metrics until at least, say, late 2009. After trying hard to put that question out of my mind, finally I decided, “Damn it, I want to know right now.”

I tried looking at issue pages and other content on a few candidate websites… and man, did my eyes glaze over fast. While I was pleased to see a general conformity with Democratic messaging and avoidance of right-wing talking points, there was little there to help a discerning eye differentiate between a Progressive, a New Dem, or a Blue Dog. Basically, everyone hates high gas prices and global warming; everyone loves job creation, access to health care, cute children, firefighters, and standing in front of scenic views in their districts.

So, I was left with no alternative but to do what any reasonable nerd would do when faced with the task of extrapolating future events: I performed a Poblano-style analysis using a variety of demographic factors, bearing in mind what demographics in a district tend to lead to what kind of representative getting elected. Just as whether a district would go for Obama or Clinton turned out to have little relationship to that district’s PVI, the PVI alone isn’t a good indicator for whether a district is likelier to produce a Progressive, a New Dem, or a Blue Dog.

More over the flip…

However, it’s not that complex: you need to factor in PVI (preferably more Dem-leaning), region (preferably northeast or west), ruralness (preferably more urban), education (preferably higher), and per capita income (preferably higher). (And this only applies in majority-white districts; obviously, there are a lot of districts that elect Progressives that have very low education and PCI numbers, but those are usually also non-white districts. Since Democrats already control all districts where Anglos are a distinct minority except for the three in south Florida, I just ignored that potential problem.) There’s only one element of ‘special sauce’ where I awarded bonus points, and that’s having endorsed the Responsible Plan for withdrawal from Iraq, which has become something of a statement of one’s progressive bona fides.

In testing the formula against the current crop of freshmen, it worked very well at predicting whether or not a representative would become a Blue Dog (and there are a lot of them among the current freshmen). It was a little screwier when predicting who would be a Progressive vs. who would be a New Dem. (For instance, it predicted John Hall and Peter Welch would be New Dems, while Joe Sestak and Ed Perlmutter would be Progressives (the opposites are true). Not that it matters too much, as the differences aren’t that great; it tends to be the difference between a Progressive Punch score of, say, 94 vs. 92.) Therefore, rather than using hard-and-fast predictions, I’ve tried to blur the boundaries a bit, with some ‘maybe’ categories on the cusp.

One last point to reiterate: these rankings don’t express how likely the Democrats are to pick up these seats. They express where these candidates, if elected, are likely to fit in on the liberal/conservative spectrum. The following tables include the demographics for districts for the candidates in toss-up and leaning seats, according to Swing State Project predictions. I also included all of our candidates in ‘likely R’ and ‘race to watch’ races, but I’m not including full demographic information in the tables for them. (A question mark next to the name means a primary still needs to be resolved.)

Likely Progressives

District Candidate PVI Region Rural % 4-yr. degree % PCI
CT-04 Himes D+5 NE 4.1 42.2 41K
IL-10 Seals D+4 MW 0.4 47.5 39K
WA-08 Burner * D+2 W 12.4 37.4 31K

* = Extra credit for Responsible Plan endorsement (although in Burner’s case, she’d still be “Likely Progressive” just based on district demographics alone)

Lower on the list: CA-46 (Cook *), CA-50 (Leibham), NJ-05 (Shulman *)

Likely Progressives, Maybe New Dems

District Candidate PVI Region Rural % 4-yr. degree % PCI
MI-09 Peters D+0 MW 0.7 43.5 36K
NJ-03 Adler D+3 NE 3.8 27.2 26K
NJ-07 Stender R+1 NE 9.6 41.5 36K

Lower on the list: CA-26 (Warner), IL-13 (Harper), PA-06 (Roggio), PA-15 (Bennett *)

Likely New Dems, Maybe Progressives

District Candidate PVI Region Rural % 4-yr. degree % PCI
MN-03 Madia R+1 MW 4.2 40.1 33K
NM-01 Heinrich D+2 W 8.7 29.5 20K
NY-13 McMahon (?) D+1 NE 0.0 24.0 23K
NY-25 Maffei D+3 NE 21.0 27.8 22K
NY-29 Massa * R+5 NE 41.6 26.1 21K

Lower on the list: IL-06 (Morganthaler)

Likely New Dems

District Candidate PVI Region Rural % 4-yr. degree % PCI
CO-04 Markey R+9 W 24.9 28.7 21K
NV-03 Titus D+1 W 3.7 20.4 25K
NY-26 Powers (?) R+3 NE 28.8 25.5 22K
OH-15 Kilroy R+1 MW 8.8 32.1 23K
VA-11 Connolly R+1 S 4.1 48.9 33K

Lower on the list: AZ-03 (Lord), FL-15 (Blythe *?), MN-02 (Sarvi), NE-02 (Esch), NV-02 (Derby *), OH-14 (O’Neill *), PA-18 (O’Donnell), TX-07 (Skelly), VA-10 (Feder)

Likely New Dems, Maybe Blue Dogs

District Candidate PVI Region Rural % 4-yr. degree % PCI
IL-11 Halvorson R+1 MW 21.8 18.5 21K
OH-01 Dreihaus R+1 MW 5.2 22.3 20K
OH-02 Wulsin R+13 MW 27.0 29.0 26K

Lower on the list: CA-04 (Brown), CA-45 (Borenstein), FL-08 (Stuart?), FL-24 (Kosmas), MD-01 (Kratovil), TX-10 (Doherty)

Likely Blue Dogs, Maybe New Dems

District Candidate PVI Region Rural % 4-yr. degree % PCI
AK-AL Berkowitz (?) R+14 W 34.3 24.7 23K
AZ-01 Fitzpatrick (?) R+2 W 44.5 17.5 15K
MI-07 Schauer R+2 MW 46.0 19.1 21K
MO-06 Barnes R+5 MW 33.7 21.2 20K
OH-16 Boccieri R+4 MW 26.4 19.2 21K

Lower on the list: FL-09 (Dicks), FL-13 (Jennings), IL-18 (Callahan), KS-04 (Betts), MN-06 (Tinklenburg), PA-03 (Dahlkemper), SC-01 (Ketner)

Likely Blue Dogs

District Candidate PVI Region Rural % 4-yr. degree % PCI
LA-04 Carmouche (?) R+7 S 40.7 16.7 16K
NC-08 Kissell R+3 S 30.6 18.2 18K

Lower on the list: AL-02 (Bright), AL-03 (Segall), ID-01 (Minnick), IN-03 (Montagano), IN-04 (Ackerson), IA-04 (Greenwald), KY-02 (Boswell), MO-09 (Baker?), NM-02 (Teague), NC-10 (Johnson), OH-07 (Neuhardt), PA-05 (McCracken), SC-02 (Miller), VA-02 (Nye), VA-05 (Perriello *), WV-02 (Barth), WY-AL (Trauner)

(I’ve left out Annette Taddeo, Raul Martinez, and Joe Garcia, as I have no idea whether this formula applies to non-white districts. We’re basically flying blind in terms of where the Cuban-American community is headed, in terms of generational change and Castro no longer having much boogeyman power.)

Now, granted, this is an analysis performed in a academic vacuum, bereft of any anecdotal evidence from campaign websites, press releases, appearances, local rumor mills, etc., that might give more clarity to predicting a candidate’s ideological record. (For instance, Larry Kissell may not turn out to be a Blue Dog, or at least not a bottom-of-the-barrel one like John Barrow or Jim Marshall. And that’s not just because I’m taking it on faith, like much of the blogosphere seems to, that a man who posts regularly at Daily Kos simply can’t be a Blue Dog. Check out the issues section of his website; he starts out by framing his agenda using right-wing talking points, but when you click on each one, he performs a neat bit of jujitsu on each one. That’s progressive messaging.) (And conversely, from what I’ve heard of Mike McMahon, he certainly doesn’t seem like a candidate to be a Progressive, and that’s reasonable, given the social conservatism of Staten Island.) So I’m relying on you guys in the comments to debunk my analysis and provide the anecdotes that prove that so-and-so is going to be a Progressive, district demographics be damned!