Tag: House

We went a long way toward swinging the needle in the House to the left in the 2006 election. Obviously, this is a direct result of picking up 30+ seats, but there’s more to it than that. It’s also a matter of replacing Republicans with the right people: replacing a right-wing nutter with a progressive goes a much longer way toward than replacing a moderate Republican with a Blue Dog, and we did more of the former. In addition, most of our open seat replacements wound up being more liberal than their predecessors.

To explore this, I matched up the DW-Nominate score* for each representative in each seat in the 109th Congress (2005-2006) vs. the 110th Congress (2007-2008). (I also converted the scores into discrete ranks from most liberal to least liberal, as DW-Nominate scores don’t look very meaningful at first glance. However, I’m subtracting the scores, not the ranks, so that we’re measuring actual shifts in voting records, rather than measuring distortion caused by an increase in the size of the Democratic caucus.) Let’s start by looking at the seats where the overall shift was the largest (not coincidentally, these were the seats that switched from R to D).

District	109th Rep.	109th Score	Rank	110th Rep.	110th Score	Rank	Difference
MN-01	Gutknecht (R)	0.747	414	Walz (D)	-0.337	161	-1.084
CO-07	Beauprez (R)	0.631	378	Perlmutter (D)	-0.317	173	-0.948
WI-08	Green (R)	0.561	353.5	Kagen (D)	-0.333	165	-0.894
KS-02	Ryun (R)	0.637	383	Boyda (D)	-0.239	197	-0.876
NH-02	Bass (R)	0.479	302.5	Hodes (D)	-0.397	126	-0.876
IN-08	Hostettler (R)	0.753	415	Ellsworth (D)	-0.118	229	-0.871
NH-01	Bradley (R)	0.467	298	Shea-Porter (D)	-0.398	124	-0.865
TX-23	Bonilla (R)	0.482	305.5	Rodriguez (D)	-0.362	147.5	-0.844
AZ-05	Hayworth (R)	0.688	399	Mitchell (D)	-0.148	224	-0.836
KY-03	Northup (R)	0.431	279.5	Yarmuth (D)	-0.401	122	-0.832

More over the flip…

In case you’re wondering which GOP to Dem switch made the least difference, the answer may surprise you: it was in PA-08, which was one of the few cases where we went from a moderate Republican (Fitzpatrick: 0.213 (207)) to a Blue Dog (Murphy: – 0.233 (200)). (Patrick Murphy gets a lot of netroots credit for his anti-war stance, but he’s pretty economically conservative.)

Now let’s look at seats where the leftward shift was the greatest but where the same party kept the seat (and in some cases, the same person kept the seat).

District	109th Rep.	109th Score	Rank	110th Rep.	110th Score	Rank	Difference
HI-02	Case (D)	-0.222	184	Hirono (D)	-0.57	40.5	-0.348
TX-04	Hall (R)	0.453	287.5	Hall (R)	0.249	237	-0.204
FL-11	Davis (D)	-0.292	166.5	Castor (D)	-0.459	88	-0.167
FL-13	Harris (R)	0.561	353.5	Buchanan (R)	0.447	294	-0.114
TN-09	Ford (D)	-0.322	155	Cohen (D)	-0.432	106.5	-0.11
MD-03	Cardin (D)	-0.352	142	Sarbanes (D)	-0.46	87	-0.108
MN-05	Sabo (D)	-0.583	31	Ellison (D)	-0.674	15	-0.091
NV-02	Gibbons (R)	0.641	386.5	Heller (R)	0.561	355.5	-0.08
OH-10	Kucinich (D)	-0.727	7	Kucinich (D)	-0.795	2	-0.068
OK-05	Istook (R)	0.601	365	Fallin (R)	0.537	340	-0.064

I’m not really sure what overcame Ralph Hall. He switched to the Republicans in 2004 in order to survive the DeLay-mander, so my best guess is that he may have been overcompensating in 2005 and 2006 in order to prove his Republican bona fides and avoid a primary challenge, but now that he’s more safely ensconced in his seat, he’s reverting more toward his original Blue Doggish tendencies.

Finally, let’s look at the seats where there was the greatest rightward shift. If you look at the raw numbers, you might think the House as a whole moved to the right: there was a leftward progression in 149 seats and a rightward movement in 154 seats (with the score staying exactly the same in the other 132 seats). However, most of those rightward shifts are extremely small fractions, perhaps as the remaining Republicans closed ranks; a few bigger shifts resulted from open seats (both D and R-held). None of the shifts is anywhere near the magnitude of what occurred in seats that went from R to D.

District	109th Rep.	109th Score	Rank	110th Rep.	110th Score	Rank	Difference
OH-04	Oxley (R)	0.434	281.5	Jordan (R)	0.772	417	0.338
MI-07	Schwarz (R)	0.317	229	Walberg (R)	0.623	374.5	0.306
GA-09/10	Norwood (R)	0.711	405	Broun (R)	0.998	433	0.287
NE-03	Osborne (R)	0.362	243.5	Smith (R)	0.627	376	0.265
CA-22	Thomas (R)	0.399	261	McCarthy (R)	0.573	358	0.174
OH-06	Strickland (D)	-0.461	84	Wilson (D)	-0.289	181	0.172
TN-01	Jenkins (R)	0.548	344	Davis (R)	0.684	393.5	0.136
IL-06	Hyde (R)	0.419	271.5	Roskam (R)	0.538	341	0.119
GA-04	McKinney (D)	-0.641	17	Johnson (D)	-0.527	54	0.114
IL-17	Evans (D)	-0.47	79	Hare (D)	-0.366	146	0.104

* I’m using DW-Nominate 1st dimension scores for this because, of all the methods for assessing voting records, it’s the best for doing linear, historical research where one Congress is compared against another. DW-Nominate scores reflect all votes on all roll calls, so there isn’t the cherry-picking problem that other aggregators run into. In some ways, I’d prefer to be using Progressive Punch or National Journal scores, as I’ve done on previous projects; they’re scored 100 to 0, and people can easily mentally convert them into the A-to-F grading scale. However, in addition to the distortion problems that come with those methods, there’s the matter of older National Journal and CQ scores being behind paid firewalls, and the matter of older Progressive Punch scores being available only as lifetime scores rather than being broken down by year or congress.

Here is their explanation of how the scores work; for those of you who aren’t professional statisticians, what you need to know is that the scores basically run between – 1 and 1, with – 1 being most liberal and 1 being most conservative. My eventual goal is to build a database that examines the relationship between DW-Nominate scores and PVIs over the decades, but, please, give me some time on that.

Father’s Day — Our Day to Relax

Today being Father’s Day, I’m getting extra special treatment from Amanda.  I was treated to breakfast this morning and afterwards, Kelly and Amanda headed to the community pool in Clearfield so I could relax for a couple of hours.  For all the fathers, soak up the special treatment today because tomorrow it’s back to solving problems.

There are several important events to note from the past week.  On Tuesday evening I attended the monthly meeting of the Centre County Democratic Committee.  Centre County Chair Dianne Gregg along with Greg Stewart from the Obama campaign hosted a great meeting.  The people in attendance are ready to go to work for the entire Democratic ticket and there was much enthusiasm and excitement about what can be accomplished in 2008.  Also, voter registration and voting trend numbers are very positive for the Democratic Party in Centre County.  

On Friday, Kelly and I were in Bellefonte to take in the atmosphere of the Bellefonte Cruise.  Our original plan was to take a classic car and participate in the event, but, when a downpour went through Clearfield around 4 PM, we decided to leave the sports car in the garage.  We did get the chance to walk around downtown Bellefonte and talk with people and see some great cars.  The only downside was several people commented that participation appeared to be down from prior years.  You have to wonder how much the $4 per gallon price of gas affected the turnout.

On Saturday morning, Kelly, Amanda and I were back in Centre County to attend a fundraising breakfast arranged by Keith Bierly.  I want to thank the people who signed on to host the event: Elizabeth Goreham, John and Sharon McCarthy, Joe French, Tom and Barbara Thwaites, Bill Cahir and Benson Lichtig  It was a tremendous event with attendance from people we had already met during the primary election campaign and many new friends who are joining on to support our campaign.  Thanks to everyone who came out and I greatly appreciate all the questions, comments and suggestions that were made to help with the direction of the campaign as we move forward.

Thanks to the Hosts of the State College Breakfast – L-R, Henry Guthrie – Campaign Chairman, Mark McCracken, Hosts Elizabeth Goreham, Sharon and John McCarthy, Barbara and Tom Thwaites, Joe French.

The rest of the day Saturday was busy as we attended a flea market / car show in Bigler at the historic Super 322 Drive-In, spent several hours at DuBois Community Days and eventually ended up in Houtzdale to attend a dinner event.  

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Events for the Coming Week – June 16th to 22nd:

Tuesday June 17th – State College, the Chamber of Business and Industry of Centre County will be hosting a luncheon and debate with both candidates for the 5th Congressional District.  

Thursday, June 19th from 11 AM to 3 PM, Open house at the recently expanded Murmac Farms in Bellefonte PA.  Thursday, June 19th as Clearfield County Commissioner, I will be attending the LMIP hearing held by Pennsylvania DEP for the proposed Chest Township landfill.  

Friday, June 20th, Kelly and I are tentatively scheduled to attend the Pennsylvania Federation of Democratic Women’s 81st annual convention in Altoona.  

Saturday, June 21st, Wellsboro, Tioga County – Laurel Festival from 10 AM and Parade at 2 PM.  

Sunday June 22nd, State College attending 2 house parties hosted by Art Goldschmidt at 1173 Oneida Street from 3 to 5 PM and at a second location to be determined later from 5:30 to 7:30 PM.

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Pins, Pens, Stickers and Magnetic Bumper Signs Available:  We have McCracken for Congress pins, pens, lapel stickers and magnetic bumper stickers available for anyone who would like them.  Please email the campaign with requests for these items.  

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Fundraising:  We would like to remind everyone that the FEC quarterly report deadline is coming up June 30th.  It is important to show that the campaign is making progress raising funds for the fall campaign.  Our message is strong but we need to mount a competitive media campaign after Labor Day.  Please visit our website www.mccrackenforcongress.com if you would like to donate online via ActBlue.com.  We really appreciate the support we are receiving.  

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Important Upcoming Event:  We will be holding a McCracken for Congress dinner in Clearfield on Thursday July 17th 5:30 PM at the Lawrence Township Fireman’s Social Hall on Mill Road in Clearfield.  Mark your calendars and plan to attend this event.  

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Mark B. McCracken

Your Candidate For Congress

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This diary is cross-posted at McCracken’s campaign blog, PA’s Blue Fifth

Mark McCracken for Congress

ActBlue page

Kentucky has been turning the corner and getting back to its Democratic roots. We voted for Bill Clinton twice, but went through a spell where Republicans peeled off our House and Senate seats. That changed some when Ben Chandler lost his bid for Governor in 2003 and won one House seat. Our Democratic Attorney General at the time, Greg Stumbo then went on to expose the Republican Party in Kentucky for the corrupt machine it was, and John Yarmuth became a fresh pickup and one of the very best of the freshman class that won in 06.

Now this year we have a lot to be proud of in the Bluegrass state. We hold two of our House seats, and have excellent candidates fielded in three more. Hang out and check out some great Kentucky Democrats.

Anyone who has seen much of my blogging lately knows about the First District candidate Heather Ryan. This is my district and I live in Paducah and know Heather Ryan. This is her first run for office, but folks I am telling you she definately has the fire and fighting spirit that our party simply needs in the Congress. She is young, energetic and quite simply put sharp as a tack.

She is a great speaker, as you can see for yourself:

When Democrats hear her, they support her. She gave a rousing speech to the Kentucky Democratic Party that I am still waiting for the video on. From what I heard, she brought down the house:

http://www.bluegrassroots.org/…

She doesn’t mind taking time for constituents, and Kentucky Progressive bloggers:

http://www.bluegrassroots.org/…

All this young lady needs is the resources to put this district on the map. She is very good at stretching existing funds and if she gets some resources she WILL force the Republicans to spend money here.

Please consider supporting her, a hard-working grassroots Democrat that shares our ideals and will fight for them:

http://www.actblue.com/page/am…

In the Second Congressional District we have David Boswell, and awesome Democratic Candidate for that seat. David has already had polling showing he is VERY competitive in this race:

In November, 2007, the Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group conducted a survey asking people across the District who they would vote for if the Congressional election were between David Boswell and Ron Lewis. The results, released last December, found David favored in that match-up 44% to 34%, with only 4% interest in other candidates. Ron Lewis may have had his own reasons for choosing not to seek re-election, but this survey is an indication that the right Democrat — David Boswell — was already in a strong position to deny Lewis re-election.

http://www.davidboswell2008.com/

He sounds like my kind of Democrat:

There has never been a more important time than right now to have that kind of vision for us, and from us, in the U.S. Congress. Now is our time to join the Democratic majority in the House of Representatives, and turn the country away from the corporate mentality of Bush policies that have raised our gas prices, recessed our economy, and ruined our housing markets. The middle class sensibility of our cities and communities tells us we ought to be able to earn good pay for a good day’s labor, to afford health care when we need it, and promote ways to seek higher education. The example from our homes, families, and friendships can again inspire our nation and the world around it. We know how important protecting freedom is, we honor all those who serve in defending us. We also believe the United States has the diplomatic potential to support sibling democracies without policing the world, or becoming Big Brother at home.

http://www.davidboswell2008.com/

Go to David’s site and support a great Democrat!!

The Democrat in Kentucky’s Third District should need little introduction. John Yarmuth was our only pickup in 06 and is facing a rematch against Anne Northup. A Kentucky Republican Party sweetheart, she will be well funded.

All you have to do is google Yarmuth’s voting record and you will see why we need to keep him in the Congress better than I can describe. He is one of the shining stars of that Freshman Class for our party. Stop by his site, and be sure to support John Yarmuth!!:

http://www.yarmuthforcongress….

Lastly, in Kentucky’s Fourth District we have Dr. Michael Kelley. He is a Democrat we can be proud to stand up for too:

As a voter and taxpayer, Michael Kelley is opposed to the continuing Republican efforts to pour more American blood and treasure into the desert sands of the Middle East. Our military has performed incredibly well in extremely challenging circumstances, having been thrust into war without adequate equipment or justification. But unless the Shiite and Sunni factions are willing to put aside hundreds of years of division and bloodshed, our troops will continue to be caught in the middle. It is time to stop forcing American troops into the quagmire in Iraq. It is time to compel the Iraqis into political accommodation by bringing our troops home now.

As a country doctor, Doc Kelley is deeply concerned about our flawed healthcare system. His commonsense ideas for saving American taxpayers and consumers billions of dollars are a good start to fixing our broken system which currently leaves millions of Americans without hope.

Michael Kelley believes that politicians in D.C. will constantly be pressured to make unethical decisions under our current, morally bankrupt campaign finance system. His ideas for campaign finance reform would change our government fundamentally because our representatives would belong to the people – not to the special interests.

Go here to watch his videos and hear him in his own words:

http://www.kelley08.com/media….

Go here to support him:

https://secure.actblue.com/con…

With the field of fine candidates that have cropped up in Kentucky all we need are the resources to help in expanding our Congressional majorities by a lot. Don’t forget the fine Kentucky candidates on the frontlines of the fight for a new Congress!!

Best wishes everyone!!

 

A Choice – More of the Same or Something Different  

On November 4th, voters will have a choice to make, not only in the race for President between Senator John McCain (More of the Same) and Senator Barack Obama (Something Different), but also in each of the contested races for seats in the US Congress.  

Voters have to look no further than two recent congressional roll call votes to see a contrast between the Democratic and Republican parties.  On May 21st, with solid Democratic support, HR 6049 passed on a 263 for / 160 against vote.   HR 6049 provides energy, business and personal tax breaks totaling $55.5 billion to spur the production of non-fossil fuels, promote energy conservation, stimulate business activity and help homeowners and the working poor.  In order to offset the costs of HR 6049, the bill tightens accounting rules on multinational corporations and eliminates certain offshore tax shelters and loopholes utilized by some US hedge fund managers.  Most important, HR 6049 does not add any additional burden to the national debt.

Most encouraging, HR 6049 will have a positive effect right here in north central Pennsylvania with funding to spur renewable energy sources from crops (including corn based ethanol) and by providing incentives for the production of non-corn based ethanol.  Both of these options will support the alternative fuels industry that is coming to north central Pennsylvania creating jobs and investment in the 5th Congressional District.  Additional language authorizes tax breaks for investment in coal gasification technology, another process that could bring jobs and investment to revitalize the coal industry in north central Pennsylvania.  

Because HR 6049 invests in domestically produced alternative energy and offers great benefits to north central Pennsylvania, I would have voted, along with 16 other members of the Pennsylvania delegation, to support the legislation.  The 3 dissenting votes cast from the Pennsylvania delegation came from Republicans John Peterson, Bill Shuster and Joseph Pitts.  

The Republicans offered alternative language that removed the tighter accounting rules to eliminate the offshore tax shelters and loopholes and included language that added $50 billion for a temporary fix for the Alternative Minimum Tax.  The Republican alternative shifted the entire $55.5 billion cost for HR 6049 plus the $50 billion for the temporary fix of the AMT directly to the national debt.  Since a main theme of my campaign is fiscal responsibility and the elimination of the national debt, I would have voted against the alternative language.   The Republican alternative failed 201 for / 220 against with all 8 Republican members of the Pennsylvania delegation voting for the Republican alternative language.   TRANSLATION:  All 8 Republican members of the Pennsylvania delegation voted to add an additional $105.5 billion to the national debt which is closing in on $10 trillion.

Perhaps most disturbing was the following statement made by Rep. Jeb Hensarling R-Texas in opposing HR 6049.  “Under the Democrats control of Congress, we have seen prices at the pump go up about $1.50 a gallon.   They have tried to sue their way to lower gas prices.   Now they are trying to tax their way to lower gas prices.  Yet they never think about producing American energy in America.”.

WHAT WAS THAT?  The entire purpose of HR 6049 is to spur the production of alternative fuels produced right here in the United States of America, creating jobs, investment and decreasing our dependence on foreign oil.   Perhaps it is time for Rep. Hensarling and his cohorts to acknowledge that foreign policy failures by the Bush administration destabilized the Middle East which is THE reason oil is now $140 a barrel and gas is over $4 a gallon.  

The votes on HR 6049 and the Republican alternative language that would have increased the national debt by $105.5 billion are prime examples of what voters must consider when they vote in November.  Maybe the choice isn’t between More of the Same or Something Different.  Perhaps the real choice comes down to More of the Same or Something Better!

Campaign Highlights for the  Week:

Friday morning, Campaign Chairman Henry Guthrie and I stopped in Lock Haven to participate in a candidate forum that was sponsored by Hub’s Home Oxygen Supply.  The event was broadcast live on the radio with Glenn Thompson joining me to take questions for about an hour.   The on site audience consisted of customers and employees of Hub’s Home Oxygen and 10th and 11th grade students from a nearby high school.  Questions ranged from I-80 tolling / highway and bridge funding, health care reform, our stance on Second Amendment rights, the war in Iraq and who we support for president.

Later Friday and on Saturday, Henry and I attended the Democratic State Committee meeting in Harrisburg.  During our time at the state committee meeting we spoke with several people including former Congressman Joe Hoeffel, Ruth Rudy who ran for the 5th District seat in 1996, PA-16 candidate Bruce Slater and Lt. Gov. Catherine Baker Knoll among others.

It was also encouraging to hear strong statements about the Democratic Party unifying behind Senator Barack Obama as our candidate for President.   These messages came from Governor Ed Rendell, Senator Bob Casey and State Chairman T. J. Rooney.   With our party unified we offer voters Something Better on November 4th.

Mark B. McCracken

Your Candidate For Congress

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This diary is cross-posted at McCracken’s campaign blog, PA’s Blue Fifth

Mark McCracken for Congress

ActBlue page

In the past 3 months, Democrats have increased their House majority as they picked up a remarkable 3 seats in a series of special elections organized in Illinois’s 14th district, Louisiana’s 6th district, Mississippi’s 1st district. What is particularly remarkable is that all three of these districts leaned heavily Republican; in 2004, George Bush had won them respectively with 55%, 59% and 62%. Each defeat increased the chaos of the Republican caucus as the NRCC started to settle in panic mode. After the loss of MS-01 on May 13th, Tom Cole, the chairman of the NRCC, issued a remarkable statement calling on Republican incumbents to brace for the worse and find individual ways to deal with the onslaught.

And Republicans have reason to fear a second November debacle. First, Republicans are now three more seats away from the majority and it is hard to find a GOP operative willing to suggest their party has any hope of reducing that margin in November. Second, the party continues to be at a significant financial disadvantage while the DCCC has a huge pile of cash that it will use in dozens of districts in the coming months, testing any Republican seat that shows any sign of being vulnerable. While the GOP was able to respond in the special elections, they will not have the money to do the same in the fall and will be forced to make some painful choices.

Third, the success of Travis Childers in MS-01 differed from those of Don Cazayoux and Bill Foster in that his opponent was not tragically flawed; in other words, the GOP had no easy excuse to explain the loss of that seat and has to face the terrifying prospect that all of its open seats are vulnerable, no matter how competitive they have appeared in previous cycles. A number of districts that opened up in the past few months and which Republicans believed would be safe bets for re-election are now finding themselves at the center of the storm, districts like NM-02, MO-09, AL-02 and OH-07. Democrats know that they will likely not have such an opportunity to snatch away heavily Republican seats in years – perhaps even decades – and they will do everything they can to make the most of every opening they have this year.

The field has shifted towards the Democratic Party, as a stunning 53 of the 88 seats that are listed in these rankings are held by Republicans. The 25 seats Democrats are defending include the 3 districts that they have just acquired and that are likely to remain in their hands in November. New York in particular is looking to be emblematic of the national catastrophe Republicans fear. Once dominant in the Empire State, the GOP has only 6 districts left today. Next year, they might only have 2. NY-25, NY-26 and NY-29 were already on everyone’s list of vulnerable Republican seats at the time of my last rankings, though the GOP’s catastrophic recruitment process in the first two of these districts has increased their predicament. And in a sign that New York Republicans are doing everything they can to seal their own doom, Vito Fossella’s arrest and subsequent retirement and the farce Staten Island Republicans are currently playing has suddenly moved NY-13 from a barely vulnerable seat to one of the Republicans’ two most vulnerable districts nationally. And to make matters worse, Republican chances in districts Democrats picked up in 2006 are rapidly fading, despite GOP boasting that they would have no trouble recapturing NY-19 and NY-24 (though the first has been making some noise again over the past few weeks, see below).

I have written full descriptions of seats that have made news since mid-February. For detailed descriptions of the other races, check last month’s rankings. I indicated upgraded or downgraded next to the seats that saw their ratings change to indicate whether they became more vulnerable or less vulnerable for the incumbent party. Here is the quick run-down:

• Less vulnerable: IL-11, IN-07, IN-07, PA-06, OH-15, OH-18
• More vulnerable: AK-AL, AL-02, ID-01, LA-04, MD-01, MO-09, NM-02, NY-13, NY-19, NY-25, NY-26, TX-22, WY-AL
  
• Changed parties: IL-14, LA-06 and MS-01
• Off the list: DE-AL, FL-10
  

Outlook: Democrats pick-up 14-20 seats, with a possibility of higher gains. My current prediction is a net pick-up of 17.

Republican seats, Likely take-over (2)

• NY-13 (open, upgraded): In no other seat did Republican chances collapse as much and as quickly as in this Staten Island seat, the last which the already dying New York GOP controls in New York City. All it took was for Rep. Vito Fossella to be arrested on DWI charges for Republicans to unravel. First, there were revelations that Fossella had an extramarital affair and that he had taken his mistress on taxpayer-funded congressional trips, forcing Fossella to announce his retirement. Second, the top Republicans in the district declined to run, leading the Staten Island party to endorse a weak and unknown candidate, Francis Powers, the island’s representative on the MTA board. Finally, Democrats convinced one of their strongest candidates, councilman Mike McMahon, to  jump in the race. Despite some divisions and the candidacy of Brooklyn Democrat Steve Harrison, Democrats were already favored to pick-up this swing district when the race devolved even further into a farce as Francis M. Powers, the son of the Republican candidate, announced he would run as the Libertarian candidate with the explicit desire to get the Republican Party (and thus his father defeated).
• NY-25 (Open, upgraded): Democrat Dan Maffei, who was came very close from unseating Walsh in 2006, never stopped running in this district that voted for both Al Gore and John Kerry. Given how toxic the environment is for Republicans in any open seat, the seat became instantly lean take-over as soon as Rep. Walsh announced his retirement back in January. And that was before the disastrous series of GOP recruitment failures, as the only Republican candidate who had stepped forward by mid-March suddenly dropped out, leaving the party with nowhere to turn. The county committees ended up settling on former Onondaga County Legislature Chairman Dale Sweetland. Given how many seats the NRCC has to defend in the next few months, it is unlikely they will put much effort into holding this seat.

Republican seats, Lean take-over (5)

• AK-AL (Rep. Young, upgraded): Hit by a corruption investigation that is sinking many Alaska Republicans (including Senator Stevens), Rep. Young has a Democratic target for months now, even more so since highly-touted Democratic challenger Ethan Berkowitz jumped in the race in 2007. Since then, numerous polls have shown Young trailing, the latest being a mid-May Research 2000 survey with Berkowitz up by 10 percent. In fact, the Democrats’ nightmare is that Young lose the Republican primary and the GOP nominate someone with less ethical trouble. The state’s Lieutenant Governor Sean Parnell (whose father Young defeated 28 years ago) is challenging him in the primary.
  
• AZ-1 (Open)
• IL-11 (Open, downgraded): Republican prospects in this district have been dismal since the GOP candidate Tim Balderman abruptly withdrew after the primary. The seat was already leaning Democratic with Balderman in the race: the DCCC had hit the jackpot by convincing state Senate President Debbie Halvorson to jump in while the NRCC had failed to recruit its top candidates. With Balderman’s exit, party leaders got the right to select a new nominee and they attempted to convince state Senators that had previously refused to run to do so. Yet, despite the prospect of becoming a candidate without having to go through a primary, none of them changed their mind. At the end of April, Republicans appointed Chicago businessman Martin Ozinga to fill Balderman’s spot on the ballot. They now have a candidate to hold the seat — something they did not have at the time of my previous rankings — which is enough to downgrade the seat form likely to lean take-over. But there is no question that Halvorson is heavily favored to pick-up this seat, particularly with Barack Obama topping the Democratic ticket.
  
• NJ-03 (Open): Democratic state Senator Adler and Republican Mayor Chris Myers won their party’s nomination on June 3rd in a race with unbalanced recruitment. Adler is the Democrats’ dream candidate while Republicans did not get their first choice. In a district that is swing in a neutral year, an open race should be fatal for Republicans in a cycle that looks so toxic for them.
  
• VA-11 (Open): As soon as Tom Davis announced his retirement, Democrats rejoiced at the opportunity of a sure pick-up in a region that is rapidly trending Democratic, Northern Virginia. But the party’s primary, opposing former Rep. Leslie Bynre to Gerald Connolly, the chairman of the Fairfax County Board of Supervisors, has gone very negative, even splitting the state’s establishment, with Sen. Webb and Gov. Kaine supporting different candidates. This gives Republicans hope that they might beat the odds and hold on to this seat with businessman Keith Fimian. It is too early to downgrade this race to a toss-up, but Byrne and Connolly better find a way to finish their race in a less brutal manner.

Democratic seats, Lean take-over (2)

• FL-16 (Rep. Mahoney): Tim Mahoney has had a target on his back ever since his narrower-than-expected victory in 2006 in the seat that had just been left vacant by Rep. Foley. The GOP primary is late so the race will not settle for a few more months, but the number of credible candidates running for this seat contrasts to the situation in many other districts and confirms that this is one of the Republicans’ top opportunities.
  
• TX-22 (Rep. Lampson, upgraded): This is a rare seat in which the GOP caught a break over the past few months. The former seat of Tom DeLay was won by Nick Lampson in 2006 after an absurd campaign in which DeLay messed up his retirement, preventing the GOP from replacing him on the ballot. Republicans settled on a write-in campaign on behalf of Shelley Sekula Gibbs. This year, Sekula Gibbs was running to take on Lampson  one more time, but many Republicans were worried that she had become too much of a liability after spending a controversial few months in Washington (she had won the special election to replace DeLay until January 07); they were concerned that nominating her could doom their chances in a district they have no doubt belongs to them. Yet, Sekula Gibbs was crushed in the runoff by Pete Olson despite coming in ahead in the first round of the primary. Olson can now set his sights on Lampson and Republican are upbeat about their chances in this race. However, Lampson can take comfort in Democratic victories in seats like MS-01, as the country’s mood might be anti-Republican enough to save him.
  

Republican seats, Toss-up (14)

• CO-4 (Rep. Musgrave): Many feel that Democrats had their best shot here two years ago, when they fell just short of picking-up a second Colorado House seat. Musgrave has always significantly underperformed in this GOP-leaning district, and Democrats are fielding Betsy Markey, a former aide to Senator Salazar. A recent internal poll released by the Markey campaign shows Musgrave held under 50% and leading by 4%.
  
  
• CT-4 (Rep. Shays)
  
• IL-10 (Rep. Kirk): Rep. Kirk knows he has a target on his back since the early days of the 2008 cycle and he thus made sure to be the highest fundraising Republican congressman. Last month, challenger Dan Seals  tried a stunt that had already been performed by many other Democratic campaigns across the country: he sold gas at the price at which it was sold when Kirk took office. But unlike similar events held elsewhere, Seals’ version somewhat backfired as many cars were turned away, the police intervened and Kirk asked for a vote-buying investigation to be launched. However, any Illinois Republican has a target on his back now that Obama is sure to top his party’s ticket and drive up Democratic turnout in his home-state.
  
• KY-02 (Open)
  
• MN-03 (Open): Rep. Ramstad’s retirement was an instant headache for Republicans in this swing district but at the time of my last ratings rumors were swirling that Ramstad would un-retire. That has not happened and both parties have now picked their nominee: Republicans picked state Rep. Paulsen. At the Democratic convention, early favorite state Senator Terri Bonoff surprisingly lost to Iraq War veteran Ashwin Madia. This race is still in its early stages and should thus be considered a toss-up but even a weak Democratic breeze would be enough to turn this seat blue.
  
• NC-8 (Rep. Hayes)
• NJ-07 (Open): Republicans nominated state Senator Lance Leonard to lead their party, defeating Kate Whitman, the former Governor’s daughter. The GOP’s obvious trouble in keeping any open seat — let alone one that is competitive on the presidential level — will make it hard for them to defeat Democrat Linda Stender who came close to unseating Rep. Ferguson in 2006.
  
• NM-1 (Open): It would be a curious feat if Democrats pick-up NM-02 but not this district, as Heather Wilson’s seat has been one that Democrats have targeted for years. Wilson’s career ended on June 3rd with a defeat in her party’s Senate primary and she opened up her seat in the process. Her campaigning skills were the only reason Republicans were able to retain this Kerry-voting district but sheriff Darren White is one of the GOP’s main recruiting successes this cycle, as the NRCC is confident he will keep the race more competitive than other Republicans would have managed to. Democrats nominated Martin Heinrich, the early favorite and a former Albuquerque councilmember. Given the political environment, Democrats are favored in most open seats — let alone one that leans Democratic usually. Yet, this race should remain competitive and suspensful.
  
  
• NY-26 (Open, upgraded): Rep. Tom Reynolds, the NRCC chairman in the 2006 cycle, unexpectedly retired since my last rankings, giving Democrats an opening in this traditionally Republican upstate New York. The GOP looks to have unified around businessman Christopher Lee but that was only after a disastrous recruitment effort in which the GOP’s top two choices declined to run for the seat — a problem that has haunted Republicans in this state more than in others. Thankfully for the GOP, the Democratic picture looks confused as 2006 nominee and unconventional (to put it politely) candidate Jack Davis wants the nomination and is looking to spend hundreds of thousands of his own money; actually, he is hoping to spend up to $3 million and to do that he has filed suit to overturn the millionaire amendment, which poses conditions on candidates’ self-funding… Meanwhile, most of the Democratic establishment is lined up behind Iraq war veteran Jon Powers. The New York primaries are very late, so if Davis decides to hit Powers it could give th GOP an unexpected boost in its effort to stay alive in New York State.
• OH-01 (Rep. Chabot): State Rep. Driehaus is trying to unseat one of 2006’s unlikely survivors. Some Democrats point that OH-01 has an important black population and with predictions of an increased African-American turnout in November this is one race in which that could have an impact.
• OH-15 (Open, downgraded): Mary Jo Kilroy unexpectedly lost her bid to unseat Rep. Pryce back in 2006 and when the Republican incumbent announced her retirement early in this cycle Kilroy was deemed the favorite. The fact that virtually every major Republican in the district passed on the race seemed to give Kilroy a pass in the general election but the NRCC managed to convince state Senator Steve Stivers to change his mind and jump in the race. The GOP is touting Stivers so highly that they at least look certain to devote some of their defensive resources to this race (the same cannot be said of every open seat the GOP will be defending) which warrants the downgrade to toss-up status. However, Kilroy remains a slight favorite. This is a district in which Bush and Kerry tied in 2004, and it will be difficult for the GOP to retain any such open seat. Furthermore, a poll conducted last month for the Kilroy campaign found her leading Stivers by 10%.
• OH-16 (Open): On March 4th, Republicans selected state Sen. Kirk ­Schuring to be their nominee. Schuring will run against Democratic state Senator John ­Boccieri who has long been one of the DCCC’s most prized recruits.
  
• WA-8 (Rep. Reichert): Challenger Darcy Burner lost by a thin margin in 2008 and is back for a rematch. The district leans Democratic, voted for Kerry and should go for Barack Obama in the fall which could help Burner. One of the biggest problems the Democrat faced two years ago was her political inexperience but now that she is running for the second time voters will feel more familiar with her, making it more difficult for the GOP to paint her as a risky vote.
  
• WY-AL (Open, upgraded): One of the most Republican districts in the nation, WY-AL was downgraded to lean retention in my last rankings after Rep. Cubin announced she would not seek re-election. Given that most of the GOP’s past difficulties in holding this seat had come from her unpopularity, an open seat made it easier for Republicans to hold the seat. But Democratic special election successes this spring means that no open seat is safe from take-over as long as Democrats have a credible candidate, and Gary Trauner (their 2006 nominee) is very viable. A new Research 2000 survey shows him edging out GOP candidate Cynthia Lummis, confirming a January poll by Mason-Dixon.
  

Democratic seats, Toss-up (9)

• CA-11 (Rep. McNerney): Republican state Rep. Dean Andal won his party’s nomination on June 3rd and he is being highly touted as a top recruit to take on Jerry McNerney, an incumbent Democrat in a district that leans Republican. Yet, the Democrats’ special election victories have made the 54% Bush got in this district look like an inconsequential GOP lean, though it is noteworthy that Andal won more votes than McNerney did on their respective primary ballots (both were running uncontested).
  
• GA-8 (Rep. Marshall)
• IL-08 (Rep. Bean)
  
• IN-09 (Rep. Hill)
  
• KS-02 (Rep. Boyda): The freshman’s incumbent main hope for re-election in this very Republican district is for the GOP primary between former Rep. Jim Ryun and state Treasurer Lynn Jenkins prevents the Kansas Republican Party — which has been divided for years between conservative and moderate wings — from uniting behind the nominee.
• NH-01 (Rep. Shea-Porter): Shea-Porter is one of the rare freshman Democrats who is facing a rematch with the Republican representative she defeated  in 2006. Jeb Bradley wants his job back — given that this was the upset of the 2006 cycle he probably never fully integrated his defeat — and the latest poll of the race suggests this will be a tough hold for Democrats if Bradley is the Republican nominee. Shea-Porter just joined the DCCC’s Frontline program, meant to help Democratic incumbents raise money and prepare for their re-election; she had refused to join it through 2007, so her change of mind says a lot about her vulnerabilities.
• OR-05 (Open): The GOP endangered its chances in one of the only competitive Democratic open seats because of the incredible levels of nastiness their primary reached. State Rep. Kevin Mannix attacked his opponent businessman Mike Erickson for getting a woman pregnant and paying for her abortion, leading the National Right to Life is calling for him to drop out of the race. Incredibly, Erickson survived these allegations and became the GOP nominee by the thinnest of margins, most probably because of the strength of early voting and ballots sent in before the scandal was exposed. This is the kind of primary that leaves traces in a general election.
  
• PA-4 (Rep. Altmire): Melissa Hart, the Republican congresswoman Altmire defeated in 2006, is back for a rematch and it ought to be a tough one as this is a district that leans Republican and in which a Democratic victory was something of a last-minute surprise. But in the intervening two years Democrats have consolidated their position in Pennsylvania and the thousands of new registrations in the first few months of 2008 have altered the playing field in their favor.
  
• PA-10 (Rep. Carney): Republicans nominated businessman Chris Hackett in what is sure to be a tough race for Carney in a district Bush won with 60% in 2004. PA-10 is the kind of district, however, in which Cazayoux and Childers’s victories should reassure the incumbent Democrat the most.
  
  

Republican seats, Lean retention (18)

• AL-02 (Open, upgraded): Rep. Everett announced he was not running months ago, so why is this the first time I am adding the district to my ratings? MS-01 showed that even staunchly Republican districts are offering openings for Democrats, and they will be sure to seize them — who knows when the climate will be this favorable for them again? AL-05 gave 67% of its vote to Bush in 2004, clearly a huge percentage (even in MS-01 Bush “only” got 62%). But Democrats do have a candidate they believe will make this close,   Montgomery Mayor Bobby Bright… who Republicans also tried to recruit, underscoring just how conservative Democrats tend to be in this kind of district.
  
• CA-04 (Open): A brutal and ideologically driven GOP primary was settled on June 3rd when Republicans chose to nominate the more-conservative candidate,  Tom McClintock. His very high-profile in California circles will help him raise money and attract attention, though some suggest that he might be too identified with ideologically pure conservatism to win in the fall. The district is very Republican, and Democrat Charlie Brown’s best shot might have been to face the ethically challenged incumbent. But he could pull it off if he attracts moderate Republicans disappointed in McClintock.
  
• FL-13 (Rep. Buchanan)
• FL-21 (Rep. Lincoln Diaz-Balart)
  
• FL-24 (Rep. Feeney): Democrats are continuing to play up Feeney’s connections with Jack Abramoff and to tout the candidacy of former state Rep. Suzanne Kosmas.
  
• IL-06 (Rep. Roskam)
  
• IL-18 (Open): Aaron Schock, a state Representative who is the 26 year-old Republican nominee for this open seat, has already created a PAC, signaling his confidence that he will be elected in November and minimizing the competitiveness of the race he is engaged in now. It is true that Democrats did not field the strongest of candidates, but IL-18 is less Republican than other open seats the Democrats picked-up over the past few months.
  
• LA-04 (Open, upgraded): The situation is the same as AL-05’s. This is a reliably conservative district that gave George Bush 58% of its vote in 2004. But no open seat seems safe for Republicans this year, and 58% is less than what Bush got in LA-06, which switched over to the Democrats’ side earlier this month revealing how much seats like LA-04 are also endangered. There is a wealth of candidates from both parties, so it will take a while to figure out the general election dynamics.
  
• MI-07 (Rep. Walberg): Democratic state Sen. Mark Schauer is outraising the freshman incumbent, a sure sign that the DCCC will pay attention to his campaign in the coming months.
  
• MI-09 (Rep. Knollenberg)
  
• MO-06 (Rep. Graves): This race has gotten heated early as Sam Graves is using challenger Kay Barnes’s fundraising events with Nancy Pelosi to hit her with two ads accusing her of having “San Fransisco values” along with footage of disco dancing and colorful images depicting gay marriages and the homosexual lifestyle. Beyond  explicit gay-baiting, the aim of these ads is to alienate Barnes, the former Kansas City Mayor from the district’s non-urban voters. In response, the Democratic campaign is airing a brutal ad accusing Graves of neglecting the district’s true concern. Indeed, Graves’s tactics might not be adapted to a in a year in which the GOP brand is toxic and voters are giving signs of privileging non-value issues.
  
• MO-09 (Open, upgraded): The NRCC was not too worried when Rep. Hulshof first announced he would retire from the House to seek the open gubernatorial seat as this is a Republican district in which Bush got 59% of the vote in 2004. But the Democrats’ special  election victories this spring mean that open seats like MO-09 are very vulnerable to take-over and Democrats realize they cannot afford to pass this opportunity. Both parties have crowded primaries in this district, with a number of former and current state Representatives seeking their party’s nod. The state primary is not until August 5th, so it will take us a while to have a better sense of the campaign’s dynamics.
  
• MN-06 (Rep. Bachmann)
• NM-02 (Open, upgraded): Steve Pearce’s retirement was not supposed to create that much of a headache for Republicans, but times are tough for the GOP when it comes to open seats and this is the type of Republican-leaning district that Democrats are confident they can make more competitive. On June 3rd, Democrat Harry Teague won a tight primary to become his party’s nominee and he will face Republican Edward Tinsley.
  
• NV-03 (Rep. Porter): There has been some unexpected movement in this race over the past few months, as Robert Daskas, the presumptive Democratic nominee who was highly touted by the DCCC, unexpectedly dropped out in late April. Democrats were able to recover, however, as they quickly moved to convince Dina Titus, the state Senate Minority Leader and the party’s 2006 gubernatorial nominee, to jump in the race, guaranteeing that this remains a competitive race.
• NY-29 (Rep. Kuhl)
  
• OH-2 (Rep. Schmidt): In this rematch of their 2006 contest, which Schmidt won by 1%, Democrat Victoria Wulsin is outraising the incumbent and has positioned herself for an upset. But Democrats have suffered two heartbreaks in this district whose GOP leanings (it gave 63% of its vote to Bush in 2004) still appear too difficult to overcome, despite Schmidt’s unpopularity. Democratic hopes in past cycles were fueled by Republican divisions, as some GOPers in the district were hoping for another Republican to represent them but that factor is fading away as cycles are passing.
  
• VA-02 (Rep. Drake): Democrats are upbeat about the chances of Glenn Nye, but Thelma Drake might have survived the worst by narrowly prevailing in a hotly contested race in 2006. A recent poll has her leading by double-digit but under 50 percent — a little bit for both candidates to celebrate. Like OH-01 (see above), increased black turnout have have an impact in this race.
  

Democratic seats, Lean retention (13)

• AZ-5 (Rep. Mitchell)
  
• AZ-8 (Rep. Giffords)
  
• CT-5 (Rep. Murphy)
  
• GA-12 (Rep. Barrow)
• IN-7 (Rep. Carson, downgraded): Andre Carson replaced his grandmother mid-March in a special election. Republicans believed they had a strong candidate, state Rep. Elrod, but Carson prevailed in this blue-leaning district by 11%. The special could have been tighter had Republicans had invested resources in helping Elrod but the NRCC did not have enough money to do that — a concrete example of the limitation the House GOP is facing because of their fundraising weakness.
  
• KS-03 (Rep. Moore)
• KY-03 (Rep. Yarmuth)
• LA-06 (Rep. Cazayoux, changed parties): Coming soon
  
• MS-01 (Rep. Childers, changed parties): Coming soon
  
• NY-19 (Rep. Hall, upgraded): Republicans had made freshman Rep. John Hall one of their top targets until their much touted candidate dropped out of the race in mid-November. Followed 5 months of confusion in which the NRCC struggled to find a replacement. They had given up when George Oros, the leader of the Westchester County Legislature, announced he would take on Hall, drawing the immediate support of the GOP establishment. Republicans have such a late start by now that it will be hard for them to live up to their potential, but this is a rare seat in which their situation has improved over the past 4 months.
  
• NY-20 (Rep. Gillbrand)
  
• MN-1 (Rep. Walz)
• WI-8 (Rep. Kagen)
  

Republican seats, potentially competitive (14)

• CA-52 (open)
• FL-8 (Rep. Keller)
  
• FL-15 (open): I forgot to add this seat to my previous rating, though it ought to have been on my list ever since Rep. Weldon announced that he would retire and leave this Republican-leaning seat open. Bush won this district with 57% in 2004, making it winnable for the opposing party but this is a rare race in which Democrats have failed the recruitment game as their favorite candidate, Nancy Higgs, abruptly dropped out of the race in February while the GOP has united around state Sen. Bill Posey. Democrats will need a very strong wind to move numbers in this district.
  
  
• FL-25 (Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart): This is the second of two Southern Florida districts which Democrats are trying to pick-up in a battle between Cuban-Americans, the other being FL-21. This Diaz-Balart is facing Joe Garcia, the former chairman of the Miami-Dade Democratic Party and the former director of the Cuban American National Foundation. This is a district that leans Republican and Cuban-Americans tend to vote for the GOP, so Garcia will need to convince them to have any shot at unseating the incumbent.
  
  
• ID-01 (Rep. Sali, upgraded): This is one of the most conservative districts in the country, and Bill Sali did the most difficult in 2006 by capturing an open race when most of the state GOP was attacking him.  Yet, Sali won a surprisingly tight primary on May 27th, as he was held to 60% by an underfunded challenger, suggesting that Republican divisions have not yet been resolved. Democratic challenger Walt Minnick has more cash-on-hand than Sali as of May. But Democrats are the underdog here even when everything aligns for them.
  
• MD-01 (Open, upgraded): State Senator Andy Harris defeated Rep. Gilchrest in a primary on February 12th, making the seat nominally open. MD-01 has a clear Republican lean, so Harris starts out as the heavy favorite; but an open seat with a defeated incumbent can bring surprises, especially if Gilchrest supporters remain bitter.
  
• NY-03 (Rep. King)
• OH-07 (Open): George Bush won 57% here in 2004, which is less than his share of the vote in LA-06 and MS-01. An internal poll for the Democratic candidate finds Republican state Senator Auria leading by only 6%, though we have to wonder whether Democrats can win in such a district without their strongest candidate, as their first choice declined months ago explaining it was too Republican a seat.
  
• OH-14 (Rep. LaTourette)
  
• PA-03 (Rep. English): Surprised by English’s unexpectedly low 54% in 2006, Democrats are confident they can test the incumbent more actively this time. Kathy Dahlkemper won the Democratic nomination on April 22nd.
  
  
• PA-06 (Rep. Gerlach, downgraded): A rare Democratic recruitment disappointment, PA-06 should have been at the top of the DCCC’s priority list. But after two very close contests in 2004 and 2006, Democrats have eased the pressure on Gerlach in a district narrowly carried by Kerry. The Democratic nominee will be retired businessman Bob Roggio, and while the national environment is anti-Republican enough that anything will happen, Gerlach demonstrated two years ago that he is a tough code to crack.  
• PA-15 (Rep. Dent)
  
• PA-18 (Rep. Murphy)
  
• WV-02 (Rep. Capito)

Democratic seats, potentially competitive (10)

• CT-2 (Rep. Courtney)
• IL-14 (Rep. Foster, changed parties): The former seat of Dennis Hastert fell into Democratic hands in March, in the first of the three shocking Democratic victories. IL-14 was also the least Republican of the three, but it still gave Bush more than 55% of the vote in 2004. The Republican candidate in the special election, Jim Oberweis, was a flawed candidate who had lost  elections before and was denounced in state papers for his negative campaigning. The mere fact that he will represent the GOP again in November makes it improbable that Foster will be much threatened. Not to mention that the NRCC wasted enough money defending this seat in March that they will stay away from Oberweis in the fall.
  
• IN-02 (Rep. Donnelly): The filing deadline passed in Indiana and Donnelly attracted minor opposition in a district the GOP had vowed to take back this year.
• IN-08 (Rep. Ellsworth, downgraded): The situation is similar to IN-02. This is a Republican-enough seat that I gave the GOP the benefit of the doubt until now. They insisted that they would make this seat very competitive, but they are sending a former congressional aide, Greg Goode, against a Democrat who atomized his opponent, an incumbent, in 2006.
  
• NH-02 (Rep. Hodes): The GOP is concentrating its resources on NH-01, where Rep. Shea-Porter is much more endangered than Hordes. And given that the Senate race will also require heavy GOP attention, there won’t be much left for them to go after Hordes. The same poll that showed Shea-Porter in danger also shows Hordes costing to re-election.
• OH-18 (Rep. Space, downgraded): Given the district’s conservative nature, Zach Space was expected to receive one of the strongest challenges of any incumbent. But many Republicans declined to run and the party’s nomination was left in the hands of Fred Dailey, the state’s former agriculture director. Dailey’s fundraising has been anemic, especially compared to Space’s fast-paced campaign, and no one is really paying attention to this race anymore. This is a stunning turnaround considering the GOP’s determination 18 months ago.
• PA-07 (Rep. Sestak)
• PA-08 (Rep. Murphy)
• PA-11 (Rep. Paul Kanjorski)
• TX-23 (Rep. Rodriguez)

Candidate filing is sailing along with lots of states now having completed candidate filings and others with a full slate of Democratic House candidate long before filings close.

Below the fold for details and once again go and take a look at the 2008 Race Tracker Wiki.  

***I have included Cook PVI numbers where possible after blogger requests to do so!***

3 more House races have a Democratic candidate that has filed in the last three weeks:

OK-01 – R+13,

OK-03 – R+18,

OK-04 – R+13,

But one race goes back to uncontested:

LA-01 – R+18,

So 419 races filled! This of course includes 236 districts held by Democratic Congresscritters.

But we also have 183 GOP held districts with confirmed Democratic opponents.

So here is where we are at (GOP Districts):

Districts with confirmed candidates – 183

Districts with unconfirmed candidates – 0

Districts with rumoured candidates – 2

Districts without any candidates – 3

Filing closed – No Democratic candidate – 11

The GOP held districts with confirmed Democratic challengers are as follows:

AL-01 – R+12,

AL-02 – R+13,

AL-03 – R+4,

AL-04 – R+16,

AK-AL – R+14,

AZ-01 – R+2,

AZ-02 – R+9,

AZ-03 – R+6,

AZ-06 – R+12,

CA-02 – R+13,

CA-03 – R+7,

CA-04 – R+11,

CA-21 – R+13,

CA-24 – R+5,

CA-25 – R+7,

CA-26 – R+4,

CA-40 – R+8,

CA-41 – R+9,

CA-42 – R+10,

CA-44 – R+6,

CA-45 – R+3,

CA-46 – R+6,

CA-48 – R+8,

CA-49 – R+10,

CA-50 – R+5,

CA-52 – R+9,

CO-04 – R+9,

CO-05 – R+15.7,

CO-06 – R+10,

CT-04 – D+5,

DE-AL – D+7,

FL-01 – R+19,

FL-04 – R+16,

FL-05 – R+5,

FL-06 – R+8,

FL-07 – R+3,

FL-08 – R+3,

FL-09 – R+4,

FL-10 – D+1,

FL-12 – R+5,

FL-13 – R+4,

FL-14 – R+10,

FL-15 – R+4,

FL-18 – R+4,

FL-21 – R+6,

FL-24 – R+3,

FL-25 – R+4,

GA-01 – R+?,

GA-03 – R+?,

GA-06 – R+?,

GA-07 – R+?,

GA-09 – R+?,

GA-10 – R+?,

GA-11 – R+?,

ID-01 – R+19,

ID-02 – R+19,

IL-06 – R+2.9,

IL-10 – D+4,

IL-11 – R+1.1,

IL-13 – R+5,

IL-15 – R+6,

IL-16 – R+4,

IL-18 – R+5.5,

IL-19 – R+8,

IN-03 – R+16,

IN-04 – R+17,

IN-05 – R+20,

IN-06 – R+11,

IA-04 – D+0,

IA-05 – R+8,

KS-01 – R+20,

KS-04 – R+12,

KY-01 – R+10,

KY-02 – R+12.9,

KY-04 – R+11.7,

LA-04 – R+7,

MD-01 – R+10,

MD-06 – R+13,

MI-02 – R+9,

MI-03 – R+9,

MI-04 – R+3,

MI-06 – R+2.3,

MI-07 – R+2,

MI-08 – R+1.9,

MI-09 – R+0,

MI-10 – R+4,

MI-11 – R+1.2,

MN-02 – R+2.7,

MN-03 – R+0.5,

MN-06 – R+5,

MO-02 – R+9,

MO-06 – R+5,

MO-07 – R+14,

MO-08 – R+11,

MO-09 – R+7,

MS-03 – R+14,

MT-AL – R+11,

NE-01 – R+11,

NE-02 – R+9,

NE-03 – R+23.6,

NV-02 – R+8.2,

NV-03 – D+1,

NJ-02 – D+4.0,

NJ-03 – D+3.3,

NJ-04 – R+0.9,

NJ-05 – R+4,

NJ-07 – R+1,

NJ-11 – R+6,

NM-01 – D+2,

NM-02 – R+6,

NY-13 – D+1,

NY-23 – R+0.2,

NY-25 – D+3,

NY-26 – R+3,

NY-29 – R+5,

NC-03 – R+15,

NC-05 – R+15,

NC-06 – R+17,

NC-08 – R+3,

NC-09 – R+12,

NC-10 – R+15,

OH-01 – R+1,

OH-02 – R+13,

OH-03 – R+3,

OH-04 – R+14,

OH-05 – R+10,

OH-07 – R+6,

OH-08 – R+12,

OH-12 – R+0.7,

OH-14 – R+2,

OH-15 – R+1,

OH-16 – R+4,

OK-01 – R+13,

OK-03 – R+18,

OK-04 – R+13,

OK-05 – R+12,

OR-02 – R+11,

PA-03 – R+2,

PA-05 – R+10,

PA-06 – D+2.2,

PA-09 – R+15,

PA-15 – D+2,

PA-16 – R+11,

PA-18 – R+2,

PA-19 – R+12,

SC-01 – R+10,

SC-02 – R+9,

SC-03 – R+14,

SC-04 – R+15,

TN-01 – R+14,

TN-02 – R+11,

TN-03 – R+8,

TN-07 – R+12,

TX-03 – R+17,

TX-04 – R+17,

TX-06 – R+15,

TX-07 – R+16,

TX-08 – R+20,

TX-10 – R+13,

TX-12 – R+14,

TX-13 – R+18,

TX-19 – R+25,

TX-24 – R+15,

TX-26 – R+12,

TX-31 – R+15,

TX-32 – R+11,

UT-01 – R+26,

UT-03 – R+22,

VA-01 – R+9,

VA-02 – R+5.9,

VA-04 – R+5,

VA-05 – R+6,

VA-06 – R+11,

VA-07 – R+11,

VA-10 – R+5,

VA-11 – R+1,

WA-04 – R+13,

WA-05 – R+7.1,

WA-08 – D+2,

WV-02 – R+5,

WI-01 – R+2,

WI-06 – R+5,

WY-AL – R+19,

The following GOP held districts have a candidate that is expected to run but is yet to confirm:

None at this stage

The following GOP held districts have rumoured candidates – please note that some of these “rumours” are extremely tenuous!

LA-07 – R+7,

NY-03 – D+2.1,

The following districts have not a single rumoured candidate:

LA-01 – R+18,

LA-05 – R+10,

WI-05 – R+12,

And last but not least the list I did not want to have to include.

The following Republicans will not have a Democratic opponent in 2008:

AL-06 – R+25,

AR-03 – R+11,

CA-19 – R+10,

CA-22 – R+16,

KY-05 – R+8

TX-01 – R+17,

TX-02 – R+12,

TX-05 – R+16,

TX-11 – R+25,

TX-14 – R+14,

TX-21 – R+13,

Finally due praise to those states where we have a full slate of house candidates – Alaska, Arizona, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Florida, Georgia, Hawaii, Idaho, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Massachusetts, Maryland, Michigan, Minnesota, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New Mexico, North Carolina, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennesee, Utah, Vermont, Virginia, Washington, West Virginia and Wyoming.

It is also interesting to note that we have only one race left to fill in New York and Wisconsin. Thats 42 states with a full slate, and 2 states with one race to fill!  

There are also 5 states where filing has closed where we do not have a full slate: Arkansas, Alabama, California, Kentucky and of course Texas. Lets hope the last 3 –  Louisiana, New York and Wisconsin fill out.

Please note that in some races others at the racetracker site have confirmed candidates that I haven’t. This is because to satisfy me a confirmed candidate has either filed with the FEC, The Sec of State or has an active campaign website, or even if they come and blog and say yep I am running. Others are not so rigorous.

It is also great to see candidates in AZ-06, CA-42, FL-12, LA-06, MS-03, VA-04, VA-06 and WI-06; 8 of 10 districts we did not contest in 2006! The other 2, TX-11 and AL-06, will again go uncontested by Team Blue in 2008.

With 11 uncontested Republicans we will not reach our great 2006 effort of 425 races filled but we will do really well nonetheless.

*** Tips, rumours and what not in the comments please.***

Like many Americans, I am in the process of building a stock portfolio to help invest in me, my family and my son’s future. But I also want to invest in my country. I am building a portfolio of five House districts to cotribute $50 each month (or $25 if I change my find). The district are based on the following criteria:

1. It is currently occupied by a Republican.

2. One district per region.

3. Rated tossup by the Cook Political Report, a typically conservative analystical piece.

4. Must be a true tossup. VA-11 is not one of them.

5. Must be in a relatively inexpensive district. I will leave NY-13 to the big boys.

6. Must have a nominee or very likely nominee.

Thus far I have chosen the following districts:

1. West/Southwest: Betsy Markey in the CO-04.

2. Northwest: Darcy Burner in the WA-08.

3. Northeast: Eric Massa in the NY-29.

I need help for the final two. In the Midwest, I am split between Dan Seals in the IL-10, Mark Schaur in the MI-07 and John Boccieri in the OH-16. I am skipping OH-15 because it is a bit pricey. Also, I am trying to decide how likely Paul Carmouche will be the nominee in the LA-04. Your help or other suggestions would be much appreciated. Thanks.

You might remember that in the summer of 2006, Democracy Corps (Stan Greenberg, James Carville, and friends) released a poll that was a real “holy crap” moment for the blogosphere, the first time many of us realized “Wow, we could actually win 20 or 30 seats in the fall!” It wasn’t a poll of one seat, but rather, a poll with a huge sample size drawn from dozens of potentially competitive House districts… and it indicated that we had a good shot at winning many of those districts, which, lo and behold, we did.

Democracy Corps is back with a sequel, and it predicts similarly big results in 2008. It’s particularly impressive compared with just how far we’ve come since they did a similar poll in January 2008 (of 40 of the 45 Republican-held districts surveyed in the most recent poll; they added five more because of the expanding battleground). (Not coincidentally, January 2008 was the start of the hotly contested presidential primary… y’know, the one that was supposed to have torn us apart into a bunch of warring factions and killed our chances in November.)

We’ll start with the most basic component: the congressional named vote (where the name of the incumbent Republican is used, while a generic Democrat was referenced), for all 45 districts taken together.

Democracy Corps (5/19-26, likely voters):

Democratic candidate: 50 (45)

Republican candidate: 43 (46)

That’s a move from a one-point loss to a seven-point lead over half a year… and bear in mind, this isn’t a national poll that encompasses Democratic-held seats, only the most threatened Republican-held seats. But they then take the additional step of breaking the races down into Tier I and Tier II races (see here for the precise list of districts, but for the most part they pretty closely track SSP’s list of toss-ups and of lean/likely Rs). We’ve moved from a +6 to +9 advantage in Tier I races, and from a -6 to +3 advantage in Tier II races.

Tier I

Democratic candidate: 51 (48)

Republican candidate: 42 (42)

Tier II

Democratic candidate: 48 (43)

Republican candidate: 45 (49)

The poll also asks for job approval of the Republican incumbents, mentioned by name. Their approval rating has appreciably and ominously declined, down into the thirties (even though the gap between ‘approve’ and ‘disapprove’ hasn’t dropped as much; they’re at +5 approval rather than a +6 approval).

Approve: 38 (43)

Disapprove: 33 (37)

Participants were read one of two statements: “In November, I really want to be able to vote for a Democrat for Congress because at least he or she will fight for change,” and “In November I will vote for [incumbent Republican] because the new Democratic congress is just business as usual and getting no more done than the last one.” They were then asked which statement they agreed with, and whether they did so strongly or not so strongly. The results show a large gap in favor of the Democrats, and significant growth since January. (There’s a whiff of push-polliness about this one, so take it with a grain of salt.)

Vote for a Democrat, agree strongly: 44 (36)

Vote for a Democrat, agree not so strongly: 11 (13)

Vote for a Democrat, combined: 55 (49)

Vote to reelect, agree strongly: 28 (26)

Vote to reelect, agree not so strongly: 9 (15)

Vote to reelect, combined: 37 (41)

I don’t want to get too deep into the individual issues on this one (there’s a ton of interesting material here; click on the links for more detail), but there’s one particular highlight for me that I wanted to share, which indicates just how much the dialogue has shifted since 2004, when gay marriage hysteria helped decide the election. (I didn’t see anything about this being asked in January, so no comparison numbers.) If these numbers are coming exclusively from Republican-held battleground districts, basically, gay hysteria is dead as a wedge issue. It’s over and done.

Participants were read paragraphs that contain “But I oppose a constitutional amendment to ban gay marriage because decisions about marriage should be left to the states as they always have been,” and “We need a constitutional amendment to ban same-sex marriage and preserve the sanctity of marriage between a man and a woman.” Again, they were asked whether they agreed with the Democratic or Republican statement, and whether they did so strongly or not so strongly.

Democratic statement, agree strongly: 35

Democratic statement, agree not so strongly: 17

Democratic statement, combined: 52

Republican statement, agree strongly: 33

Republican statement, agree not so strongly: 10

Republican statement, combined: 43

In general, this can’t be seen as a promise of winning 45 seats. And with a sample of 1,600 divided by 45, that’s only a sample of 36 per seat, so it doesn’t have any particular value for any one particular seat. But this poll has to be seen as suggesting that we have the upper hand in the 21 Tier 1 seats, and are likely to win a number of the 24 Tier 2 seats as well.

(H/t to RandySF and Andy Dufresne.)

Over the past few months, I continuously pinched myself as the race for the House of Representatives developed. Recruitments, polls and Republican primary results against incumbenets such as Indiana’s Dan Burton sent signal after signal that we could be in for another big year. Now, a Democracy Corps poll as reported at Talking Points Memo indicate to pollster Stan Greenberg that we could be in for an even bigger year than 2006.  

Are House Democrats on the verge of an unprecedented second “wave election” in a row — one that could win them up to another 45 House seats?

That’s the astonishing finding of a new survey by the Democracy Corps, the Democratic polling firm run by Stan Greenberg and James Carville.

The new survey polled 1,600 people across 45 GOP-held districts, ranging from the competitive Tier 1 to harder-to-reach Tier 2 with the named incumbents and their opponents used instead of generic match-ups. The aggregate results showed the Democratic candidate winning the Tier 1 races 51%-42%, and the edging out the GOP 48%-45% in the Tier 2 match-ups, though they trailed 43%-51% in the “rural/small town” category.

During a conference call with reporters, Greenberg was bullish on the Dems’ chances this Fall, predicting a second wave on top of the one from 2006: “It’s certainly reasonable to think that of these 45 seats, half these seats could go to the Democrat if the trend holds.”

In June I think it is a  stretch to be so bulling and cling to my prediction of about 20-21 seats, but I am doing so in the face of evidence to the contrary. Certainly we have the money, candidates and energy to blow this election wide open. Let’s make it happen.

[UPDATE]

In my excitement, I missed where Greenberg suggested HALF of the 45 could flip. Regardless, we’re in for a big year.

The upcoming week is going to be a busy week of listening and learning.  I have 3 important meetings to attend that will give me the chance to discuss important issues in the north central region.

On Monday June 2nd, I am scheduled to meet with Kirk Johnson to discuss issues surrounding the Allegheny National Forest.  Mr. Johnson is the founder of Friends of Allegheny Wilderness and he contacted me several weeks back to request a meeting to discuss the future of the Allegheny National Forest.  I have been a supporter of the PA Wilds tourism promotion initiative and I recognize that the Allegheny National Forest is large attraction for tourism in the PA Wilds region.  I look forward to speaking with Mr. Johnson and learning more details about the ANF.

On Wednesday, June 4th, I will be meeting at the Clearfield Hospital with members of the Hospital and Healthsystem Association of Pennsylvania to discuss the important issue of healthcare.  While comprehensive healthcare reform has been discussed for almost 20 years, the federal government has been consistent on only one front – the failure to enact meaningful legislation to solve the problem.  The meeting with the Hospital and Healthsystem Association of Pennsylvania will be very valuable to learn what their association feels will be necessary to help achieve healthcare reform.

On Friday June 6th and Saturday June 7th I will be in Harrisburg attending the Democratic State Committee Meeting.  I look forward to meeting with county chairs, state committee members and other people from the 5th congressional district that will be in attendance at the meeting.  

A quick update on events from the past week.  Kelly, Amanda and I visited Centre County on Monday to attend the Memorial Day celebration in Boalsburg.  While it was a humid day, many people were out enjoying the festivities.  

On Wednesday, I traveled to Reynoldsville to attend the monthly meeting of the Jefferson County Democratic Committee.  

On Thursday, I traveled to Wellsboro, Tioga County to attend a fundraiser for PA Senate candidate Don Hilliard and later, the monthly meeting of the Tioga County Democratic Committee.  

Finally, yesterday Kelly and I made a trip to Lock Haven in Clinton County to attend a fundraiser for State Senator John Wozniak.  While at Senator Wozniak’s event, Kelly and I spent some time speaking with Rick and Marie Vilello.  After the event was over, at Rick and Marie’s urging, Kelly and I took some time visit the riverfront area and walk along the levee.  Throughout the primary campaign I listened to Mayor Rick speak with such pride about his community of Lock Haven.  After our visit today, I can see why Rick is so proud and excited about his town.

Mark B. McCracken

Your Candidate For Congress

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This diary is cross-posted at McCracken’s campaign blog, PA’s Blue Fifth

Mark McCracken for Congress

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