Tag: House

It’s that time of the year when people start contemplating “Oh, no! What if there’s a tie in the Electoral College?” (It’s actually not that far-fetched. Take the Kerry states, add Iowa, Colorado, and New Mexico, subtract New Hampshire and you get 269 each.)

As you might or might not be aware, the 12th Amendment states that in the event of a tie (or no one getting a majority because of a 3rd party), the House of Representatives decides who becomes President. However… it’s not done by individual votes. Instead, each state delegation gets one vote. So, let’s assume there’s no horse trading going on behind the scenes, or strangely principled decisions to honor the will of the state’s voters rather than one’s party designation, and see which party controls which party delegation: the Dems control 27, the GOP controls 21, and there are 2 ties. (This is already a dramatic improvement over the situation going into the 2006 elections, when the GOP controlled 30, Dems controlled 17, and there were 3 ties.)

Dems: Arkansas (3-1), California (34-19), Colorado (4-3), Connecticut (4-1), Hawaii (2-0), Illinois (11-8), Indiana (5-4), Iowa (3-2), Maine (2-0), Maryland (6-2), Massachusetts (10-0), Minnesota (5-3), Mississippi (3-1), New Hampshire (2-0), New Jersey (7-6), New York (23-6), North Carolina (7-6), North Dakota (1-0), Oregon (4-1), Pennsylvania (11-8), Rhode Island (2-0), South Dakota (1-0), Tennessee (5-4), Vermont (1-0), Washington (6-3), West Virginia (2-1), and Wisconsin (5-3)

GOP: Alabama (5-2), Alaska (1-0), Delaware (1-0), Florida (16-9), Georgia (7-6), Idaho (2-0), Kentucky (4-2), Louisiana (4-3), Michigan (9-6), Missouri (5-4), Montana (1-0), Nebraska (3-0), Nevada (2-1), New Mexico (2-1), Ohio (11-7), Oklahoma (4-1), South Carolina (4-2), Texas (19-13), Utah (2-1), Virginia (8-3), and Wyoming (1-0)

Ties: Arizona (4-4) and Kansas (2-2)

So which are the likeliest delegations to flip? Turning to Swing State Project’s competitive House race ratings, I’ve tried to rank the likelihood of delegations moving from majority-R (or a tie) to majority-D. Ordinarily, I’d suggest this be the basis for some consideration as to how to allocate our House race resources… but considering that we’re already up 27-21 and looking to flip more delegations without a lot of strategic targeting, simply by virtue of how much the playing field is tilted in our direction this year, this serves more as a conversation piece this year. In short, we can move the margin to 30-19 by winning all our toss-ups, and we can move it as far as 35-14 by winning all our lean Rs as well.

Alaska: 1 to flip. AK-AL is a toss-up, previously rated Lean D. The biggest threat to our fortunes in this seat would be if Don Young doesn’t make it out of his primary.

Arizona: 1 to break tie. AZ-01 is an open scandal seat, rated toss-up.

New Mexico: 1 to flip. Rated toss-up, NM-01 is an open seat in a D+2 district, although the Republicans recruited a solid contender here. (Plus, NM-02 is a likely R.)

Nevada: 1 to flip. NV-03 is lean R. Although there was some weirdness with a candidate swap last month, Dina Titus may actually be an upgrade. NV-02 is also likely R.

Ohio: 2 to tie, 3 to flip. We’re getting into table-running territory here, but we can do it by picking up OH-15 (toss-up), OH-16 (toss-up), and one of OH-01 (lean R) and OH-02 (lean R). For good measure, there are OH-07 and OH-14 (races to watch).

Missouri: 1 to flip. MO-06 (lean R) looks promising, with a former Kansas City mayor on our side. MO-09 (likely R) presents another opportunity.

Louisiana: 1 to flip. LA-04 (lean R) doesn’t seem so out of reach given our special election victory in LA-06.

Michigan: 2 to flip. MI-07 and MI-09 are both rated lean R. (And MI-07 may actually be our best shot at an incumbent.)

Wyoming: 1 to flip. WY-AL is likely R, although we’d have better odds if we were facing the retiring incumbent instead of someone new.

Further down the list, there’s Virginia (3 to flip: VA-11 is toss-up, VA-02 and VA-10 are likely R, VA-05 is a race to watch), Florida (a herculean 4 to flip, but FL-08, FL-13, FL-15, FL-18, FL-21, FL-24, and FL-25 are all likely R), Idaho (1 to tie, 2 to flip: ID-01 is likely R), Alabama (2 to flip: AL-02 is likely R and AL-03 is a race to watch), Kentucky (1 to tie, 2 to flip: KY-02 is likely R), Montana (1 to flip: MT-AL is a race to watch), Kansas (1 to break tie: KS-04 is a race to watch), South Carolina (1 to tie, 2 to flip: SC-01 and SC-02 are races to watch), Nebraska (2 to flip: NE-02 is a race to watch), and Texas (3 to tie, 4 to flip: TX-07 and TX-10 are races to watch). There’s no action to speak of in Delaware (1 to flip), Georgia (1 to flip), Oklahoma (2 to flip), or Utah (1 to flip).

OK, what about worst case scenario time? I’m not sure what could make the Democratic brand more toxic than the spoiled dog food that the Republicans are currently peddling, but suppose it happens (and Obama wouldn’t be tying the electoral vote in the general under those circumstances anyway, so this is mostly academic). Suppose the Democrats pick nothing up, and also lose every toss-up? That still doesn’t flip a single delegation back to the Republicans. The Democrats would also have to lose every lean D seat in order for the Republicans to pick up a 25-21 edge (by flipping Indiana, Arizona, and Pennsylvania, breaking the tie in Kansas, and knocking Wisconsin, New Hampshire, and Mississippi back to ties).

Kansas: 1 to break tie. KS-02 is lean D, KS-03 is likely D.

Indiana: 1 to flip. IN-09 (the 4th Hill/Sodrel go-round) is ranked lean D, plus IN-02 and IN-08 aren’t out of the woods at likely D.

Arizona: 1 to break tie. AZ-05 and AZ-08 are both lean D.

Pennsylvania: 2 to flip. PA-04 and PA-10 are lean D, plus PA-08 and PA-11 are likely D.

Wisconsin: 1 to tie, 2 to flip. WI-08 is lean D.

New Hampshire: 1 to tie, 2 to flip. NH-01 is lean D, and NH-02 is likely D.

Mississippi: 1 to tie, 2 to flip. MS-01 is lean D.

Further down the list, there’s also Illinois (2 to flip: IL-14 is lean D and IL-08 is likely D), North Carolina (1 to flip: NC-11 is likely D), Minnesota (1 to tie, 2 to flip: MN-01 is likely D), Connecticut (2 to flip: CT-02 and CT-05 are likely D), and Tennessee (1 to flip: TN-04 is a race to watch). For the rest of the Dem states, there’s no path to a flip.

I know Rob already diaried this, but I really want to help Bill O’Neill turn OH-14 blue – so here’s a little more information about this race and our Memorial Day Donor Bomb

Rep. Steve LaTourette of Ohio is scum, but his opponent, Bill O’Neill is a Vietnam veteran we can really get behind. Summary of this Diary:

1. Support Bill O’Neill, winner of Election Inspection’s Memorial Day Donor Bomb contest to support a veteran running for Congress.

2. Why O’Neill is good for Veterans, Labor, Civil Rights, Small Business, and restoring the rule of law.

3. The sordid tale of GOP Rep. Steve LaTourette, a phony moderate, a corrupt scumbag who is literally in bed with his lobbyist, and a toothless ethics chair who made a mockery of the job and was still yanked by Tom DeLay for the smallest ounce of insubordination.

Please donate to Bill O’Neill for Memorial Day! Let’s give our veterans and the families of the fallen a congress that understands them and will vote to end the Iraq War.

Ohio’s 14th district is in the suburbs of Cleveland – exactly the kind of place where Democrats have been making inroads in the past two cycles. The PVI of the district is R+2 – a very winnable district. Steve LaTourette has a scandal against him and an opponent who’s both a Vietnam Vet and an elected Judge. We need to send O’Neill money to help get this race onto the DCCC radar and attract attention from VoteVets as well. That’s right, the only barrier to this race becoming competitive is money, the one thing nearly any of us can help with. Send a lot or a little to a veteran running for congress this Memorial Day.

Bill O’Neill is a Vietnam veteran who received a Bronze Star – that’s patriotism that no flag pin can match. He’s also been a civil rights lawyer, a small businessman, and a union organizer – a man who understands the economic challenges faced by Ohioans who’ve felt the brunt of the Bush Economy. In more recent years, he’s been one of the most respected appellate judges in Ohio – a man of integrity who can be trusted to make sure that no man, even the President of the United States, is above the law. He stepped down from the bench in June 2007 to run for Congress, because he knows a judge cannot be compromised by the trials of campaigning. Learn more about O’Neill.

Steve LaTourette is scum – he cheated on his wife with his former chief of staff, who was lobbying his committee, who LaTourette then remarried after getting a divorce. So he’s literally in bed with a lobbyist, and she suddenly got all sorts of new clients. For example, she represents the Cleveland-Cuyahoga County Port Authority, while he’s the ranking member on the Subcommittee on Coast Guard and Maritime, a part of the Transportation and Infrastructure committee. This isn’t why the GOP removed him as chair of the Ethics committee, of course – they simply didn’t like his toothless admonishment (with no penalties) of Tom Delay. LaTourette quickly fell in line after that. Salon article on LaTourette by Cliff Schecter. LaTourette has a perfect score on the Family Values card according to the GOP – that is, unless you count his own family values. (Is that why people think he’s a moderate?)

So please – spread the word, and Donate to Bill O’Neill!

This Memorial Day Donor Bomb brought to you by Election Inspection – your source for polls, predictions, analysis, news, and now fundraising efforts. Don’t forget to tip ActBlue for the great work they do!

While Memorial Day weekend is recognized as the unofficial start of the summer season with the first family picnics and backyard barbeques, we must take time to remember the true meaning of the Memorial Day holiday.  First and foremost, Memorial Day is to remember and honor those who accepted the call into military service to protect our country.  I always take a few moments while visiting local cemeteries on Memorial Day weekend to notice the flags marking the graves of deceased veterans.

This year, at Calvary Cemetery in Clearfield, there is a flag in place for the first time marking the grave of my recently deceased father, a World War II veteran.  My father was always proud of being a World War II veteran and the sad fact is the number of World War II vets is dwindling with each passing year.  They were called the “Greatest Generation” for their efforts to win the war against two powerful enemies on two different fronts.  Then, they came home and became the working force behind a strong economy, the expansion of our national infrastructure and they were the parents of the baby boom generation.

Back in the days following World War II, our nation and our leaders recognized the debt owed to the brave men and women who served during World War II.  Our government provided for their return to civilian life with the GI Bill to provide funding for education and financial assistance to purchase homes.

It was encouraging this past Thursday when the US Senate overwhelmingly passed the 21st Century post-9/11 GI Bill that was proposed by Virginia Senator Jim Webb.  The post-9/11 GI Bill passed the house the proceeding week and will provide veterans of the War in Iraq and Afghanistan with the opportunity for comprehensive educational benefits when they return home.  This was the right thing to do for our service men and woman and I congratulate Senator Webb and his colleagues for taking action on this important legislation.

Blossburg Coal Festival:  On Saturday, Kelly, Amanda and I traveled to Tioga County for the annual Blossburg Coal Festival.  We took part in the parade through Blossburg on Saturday morning.  The plan was for Kelly and Amanda to ride in our vehicle with the “McCracken for Congress” signs on display while I walked tossing candy.  When it was time for the parade to start, Amanda announced that she wanted to walk the parade route with me and help toss the candy.  I wasn’t sure how far her 5 year old legs would take her but I figured if she got tired I would put her in the car.  Well, Amanda must have a future in politics because she walked the whole parade route and had a smile on her face the entire time.

After the parade, we stayed at the festival for several hours where I worked at the Tioga County Democratic Party booth while Kelly and Amanda enjoyed the food, games and rides.  While was standing at the booth, I spoke with a number of people about many issues of concern in Tioga County.

Not surprisingly, people wanted to talk about the price of gas, the rising price of food and the war in Iraq.  I also was asked where I stood on Second Amendment rights and my support for alternative fuels including corn based ethanol.  The overwhelming majority of the people I spoke with were in agreement with the opinions and ideas I shared with them.  Tioga County is a wonderful place and the people there are very interested in our campaign.  I look forward to many more trips to Tioga County during the coming months of the campaign.

In closing, Kelly, Amanda and I wish everyone a safe and fun filled Memorial Day weekend.

Mark B. McCracken

Your Candidate For Congress

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This diary is cross-posted at McCracken’s campaign blog, PA’s Blue Fifth

Mark McCracken for Congress

ActBlue page

Twelve states still have open filing (or will have open filing).  Then there’s Virginia with its filing date (passed) and the party congressional district conventions.  This does not include states like Massachussetts and hawaii with an entirely Democratic delegation.  In the remaining states, New York has the most Republican members of congress (6) but Oklahoma has the most who have not announced retirement (4).  In total, these states have 36 GOP representatives with eight retirements.

Alaska has a June 2 filing deadline.  The case for a Don Young retirement is simple.  It will allow him to spend all his remaining cash on hand on his legal defence.  The seat already has an announced Republican who has filed, Sean Parnell.  Young still has a huge cash advantage over his opponents and would, at the least, stand a good chance at defeating Parnell.  We’ll know by June 2.

My second ranked retirement choice would be a surprise but given the flak he’s taken, it seems like an interesting personal choice.  Tom Cole has a safe seat in Oklahoma (June 4 deadline) but has receiveds merciless criticism, particularly from Boehner.  Given that the last NRCC head ts retiring this year, this job takes a lot out of its current place holder and gives little in return (Tom Davis was, after all, shoved out of the US Senate race in VA).  Maybe he’ll decide to chuck it, do his best, and say sayonara.

None of the other Oklahoma incumbents (Sullivan, Lucas, and Fallin) seem even remotely likely to leave.  Others have been on rumor lists in the past so they migh seem like possible retirement choices.

Colorado is the next state out of the chute and Marilyn Musgrave was frequently mentioned as being pressed to drop out.  There is no talk of that, Doug La,born is a first-term true believer and Tancredo is the one leaving.  No change.

Wyoming is next and Barbara Cubin has already announced she’s departing.

No, next on my list is someone who is independently wealthy, 65 years old, but who is unopposed.  That would be Jim Sensenbrenner in Wisconsin.  If Sensenbrenner.  Sensenbrenner would have the added benefit of being able to basically name his successor.  (other Wisconsin Republicans are Tom Petri and Ryan).

Fourth and fifth on my list are two Washington Republicans, Cathy McMorris Rogers and Doc Hastings.  McMorris Rogers missed a lot of time while giving birth.  She may prefer spending more time in a more stable environment than being a member of the House representing a district coveriong Spokane.  Hastings is a member of the Republican class of 1994.  He lost a lot of clout when the Democrats took power and was frequently mentioned early on as a possible retiree.  Dave Reichert spent seemingly 20 years hunting the Green River Killer.  I don’t see him giving up on a House seat he holds (if barely) this soon in his career.  Lose, yes.  Retire, no.

6 and 7. John McHugh won easily in 2006 and faces an opponent, in Mike Oot, with a slim $15,415 in the bank. OTOH, McHugh was mentioned on this site IIRC as possibly stepping down and running for a State Senate set recently taken by Darrell Aubertine.  McHugh is not exactly rolling in cash with a paltry $261,698.It’s a toss up district (R+0.2)in a Democratic state where the GOP seems to be doing its best to disappear.  Randy Kuhl has the safest Republican district in the state (R+5, NY-29).  Kuhl has a volcanic temper, though, and trails Eric Massa in cash on hand by $365 K (Kuhl) to $565 K (Massa).  My guess is that Kuhl is far more likely to lose this seat than give it up.  Still, since another candidate might well do better, retirement is possible.  (Peter King is safe in the other activer NY seat as he has money ($802 K) and lacks a challenger.

8. Mike Castle.  Castle has plenty of money but he earlier suffered a stroke (which he and his staff covered up).  Health problems are the only thing that could drag Mike from defending this D+7 seat.

9. Marilyn Musgrave.  Musgrave was pushed to retire early as she has badly underperformed her district.  Instead, the feisty conservative has tried to position herself as more bi-partisan.  I think it’s a crock but it does show she’s running again.  Doug Lamborn has a primary opponent but he’s already running again.  (The Colorado system shows some districts earlier than others based on the district assembly date for the party.)  Tom Tancredo has long since announced his retirement.

10.  John Shadegg.  Shadegg already retired once and has a pile of cash.  He’s running.  Bur Jeff Flake is running for a leadershio position and Trent Franks has shown no inclination to join the retirees.  Rick Renzi is awaiting his defence and retirement.

Nothing happening:  KS (Moran and Tiarrht); LA (the newly elected Scalise, Alexander, and Boustany); MN (Kline and Bachmann).

Don Young may realistically retire.  Anybody else seems highly unlikely.

(From the diaries – promoted by DavidNYC)

In several diaries or stories lately there have been comments where people have wondered whether Congressperson X is the only person of Y race to represent a district that is majority-Z. I went through the list and found every one I can think of, so hopefully this diary can be the ultimate argument-settler. Please feel free to chime in in the comments if you think someone is missing.

I’m using 2005 census estimates. Interestingly, a number of districts have crossed a threshold since the 2000 census: a number of districts, for instance, have crossed from a white plurality to a Hispanic plurality in those years (CA-17, CA-21, CA-23, CA-27), while CA-13 crossed from white plurality to an Asian plurality. TX-09, TX-18, and TX-30 crossed from an African-American plurality to a Hispanic plurality (although the Houston districts may have switched back, thanks to the New Orleans diaspora). While most districts are becoming less white, one district actually crossed the other way: HI-02 crossed from an Asian plurality to a white plurality.

Districts with white majority not represented by white

(Despite the Anglo name, Trent Franks identifies as Mexican-American and is a member of the Congressional Hispanic Conference, the Republican equivalent to the Congressional Hispanic Caucus. Anna Eshoo is of Assyrian descent; I don’t know if she would describe herself as white or Asian.)

Districts with white plurality not represented by white

(The Census Bureau, for some reason, does not have estimated populations for 2005 for the 110th congress (only for the 109th congress, which doesn’t reflect Georgia’s mid-decade redistricting), so the numbers for GA-02 are based on the actual 2000 census count. As you can see, it may have crossed into an African-American plurality in the last few years.)

Districts with African-American majority not represented by African-American

Districts with African-American plurality not represented by African-American

Districts with Asian majority not represented by Asian

Districts with Asian plurality not represented by Asian

Districts with Hispanic majority not represented by Hispanic

Districts with Hispanic plurality not represented by Hispanic

(Devin Nunes is a member of the Congressional Hispanic Conference, but identifies as Portuguese-American, which at least to me does not imply either “Hispanic” (from a Spanish-speaking background) or “Latino” (from a Latin American background).)

May has been a busy month and it is more than half over.  I have a few important things to announce this week.

1. CHANGES IN THE CAMPAIGN ORGANIZATION — We are going to make several important changes to the campaign organization this week.  These moves will bring in some new people with important knowledge, experience and expertise to the campaign and will change the roles of some people already involved with the campaign.

Henry Guthrie of DuBois will be moving from the position of Vice Chairman to Chairman of the McCracken for Congress committee.  Henry and his wife Molly have been very involved with the campaign since we began in January and I have great confidence in his political knowledge and abilities.  I worked closely with Henry in 2007 when we were both candidates for office at the county level.

Victor M. Ordonez will continue in the position of Media & Policy Advisor.  Victor brings years of political experience working in campaigns.  His prior positions have included working for Rep. Joseph Sestak (PA-07) and helping to get Senator Robert Casey Jr. elected in 2006.

Keith Bierly is coming on board as a campaign advisor.  Keith brings a wealth of knowledge to the campaign serving 12 years as a District Justice and 16 years as Centre County Commissioner.  Keith will be working on specific areas of the campaign to coordinate the efforts of the entire committee and we’re pleased to have him take this official role with the campaign.

Tim Fannin from the accounting firm of Catalano, Case, Catalano and Fannin will be taking over as Treasurer.  Running for federal office with all the required FEC and IRS filings takes a great deal knowledge.  Tim is a highly experienced accountant in the Clearfield area who has served on many boards and organizations including the Clearfield County Industrial Development Authority and the Clearfield County Economic Development Corporation among others.   With the appointment of Tim Fannin as Treasurer we are moving Milt Weisman to the position of Assistant Treasurer where he will remain involved with the campaign.

Recognizing the key role that Centre County plays in the 5th Congressional District, it is important to name someone to the position of Centre County Coordinator.   I didn’t have to look far to find someone with the credentials I was looking for.  Tim Wilson shares a passion for many of the same issues I’m stressing in the race for US Congress.  Tim is interested in alternative fuels, environmental issues, fiscal responsibility, health care reform, farmland preservation, support for public education and many of the other issues the McCracken for Congress campaign is all about.  An additional benefit of having Tim on our committee is, while he is now living in Centre County, he is originally from Jefferson County and will be able to help the campaign in those areas of the district also.

We’ve also invited Andrea Smith of Glen Richey to take over the role of Secretary of the committee.  Andrea has worked for many years as a legal secretary in the Clearfield area and has supported and assisted me in my past campaigns for school director and county commissioner.

We’re excited to have these people on board with the campaign.  We also have a number of people from every county in the 5th district offer to work for the campaign.  The solid organization we are putting together will help us run strong in every county in the 5th district.

2: CONGRATULATIONS TO TRAVIS CHILDERS — This past Tuesday Democrat Travis Childers was elected to the US Congress in a special election to fill a vacant seat in the state of Mississippi.   This was the third Democratic victory so far in 2008 in special elections.  The 3 seats in Mississippi, Louisiana and Illinois (the seat of former Speaker Dennis Hastert) were all considered to be traditional Republican seats and have been captured by Democrats.  It will take a great deal of hard work but we can accomplish this same feat here in the 5th Congressional District in November.

3: ARMED FORCES AWARENESS DAY — On Saturday, I took part in the Armed Forces Awareness Day ceremony in Clearfield.  This is the 5th consecutive year that I’ve participated as a county commissioner in this moving ceremony.  It is so important that we take time to recognize the commitment of the men and women who are serving and who have served in our armed forces.  

The ceremony in Clearfield is always so special with emotional speeches, patriotic songs by the DuBois American Legion Band and special recognition of the veterans and active servicemen in attendance.  This year, there were several very special guests including 2 Gold Star Mothers and a Clearfield County veteran who is a survivor of the attack on Pearl Harbor.

4: This coming week, Kelly, Amanda and I will be spending Saturday in Tioga County to attend the Blossburg Coal Festival and participate in the parade.  We also will be traveling later in the day to Wellsboro to meet with people who are interested in helping with the campaign.  If anyone from Tioga County would like to meet with us in Wellsboro, please email the campaign at mccrackenforcongress@verizon.net.

Mark B. McCracken

Your Candidate For Congress

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This diary is cross-posted at McCracken’s campaign blog, PA’s Blue Fifth

Mark McCracken for Congress

ActBlue page

Crossposted at Daily Kos and EENR Blog.  I didn’t see much discussion of this race, so thought this might be helpful for readers here.

Most of you probably remember me from all of the hard work I put in blogging about Rick Vilello, former candidate for the PA-05 nomination.  Well, during that time I also got very sick.  So sick that I was unable to go to work and they eventually had to let me go.  The good news is that my sickness was apparently an allergic reaction to something in the area, and now that I have left the area, I’m no longer sick.  I’m returning to the PA-06 and noticed that there has not been a single diary on our very progressive candidate down there.  I would like to rectify that situation.  Bear in mind that I do not work for the Bob Roggio campaign, although I do look forward to volunteering for it.

First off, I would like to include a link to Bob Roggio’s website.  Feel free to check in early and often.

Bob Roggio for Congress

So who is Bob Roggio?  Aside from being the next Congressman from the PA-06, he has had many roles.  He was a successful businessman, a member of the military, and a political activist.  He is also graduated from Penn State, and the story of this degree, in my opinion, speaks to his character more than anything else.  

When Bob was 21, his father suddenly passed away.  In order to help support his mother and the rest of his family, he dropped out of college to work full time.  In addition, he joined the Army Reserves.  During this time, Bob began working at Zenith Products Corporation.  Over a 30 year career, he became a vice-president and a principal owner, all without receiving his college degree.  At the end of his career, he and the rest of the owners of Zenith sold the company in 1994.  At this time, Bob could have just retired, but he didn’t.  First, he went back and got the degree he gave up on so early in his life.  Then, he expanded the dedication to public service that had been a part of his life all along.

In 2004, he was a critical part of the effort to deliver Philadelphia, and thus Pennsylvania, for John Kerry.  In 2006, he was called upon to help send Bob Casey to Washington.  And today, he is answering that call to public service once again by running against Jim Gerlach in the PA-06.

Many of you may be saying, “That’s all well and good, but where does he stand on the issues?”  I can honestly tell you that he is right on the issues as well.  He wants to bring our troops home and knows that the invasion of Iraq was a mistake.  He wants to develop alternative energy sources and help us to become independent from foreign oil.  He believes that everyone deserves health care they can afford.  He believes in a woman’s right to choose.  He also believes that we need to spend money on our crumbling infrastructure so that we can have more and better jobs again.

So there we are.  This is Bob Roggio in a nutshell.  I’ll write more about him once I get back to the district full time.  I’m still recovering, so it might be a while.  Until then, please stop by Bob’s website.  And if you believe that the PA-06 deserves progressive leadership as much as I do, please visit this Act Blue page.  Thanks for stopping by!

Thanks to Benawu, it’s pretty easy to make a list of Republican seats sorted by Cook PVI scores.  (The information is also available at Wikipedia, btw, but I trust Benawu).  FEC reports are also pretty accessible at www.fec.gov so it’s a nice research project.

Well, to keep things manageable I looked up the cash on hand balances of all Republican incumbents and the leading money raising challenger for Republican seats that are open this cycle.  Excell allows for some comparisons.

The average cash balance for these 78 seats is $720,059.  The average for the 55 incumbents is $819,234; the average for the 13 open seats is $224,184.  There’s the value of incumbency in dollars and cents.  Republicans in Democratic territory, those with a PVI of D+1 or higher, were a bit better funded but incumbency trumped everything else.  The 13 Republicans averaged $838,144 with ten incumbents in these seats at $1,031,027 and three open seats averaging $195,201.

An analysis of each of the Lean D sistricts and competes on particularly weak Republicans follows below the fold.  I’d include the entire spreadsheet but I don’t know how to import it.  

Republicans in D Land

D+7 is Delaware and Mike Castle.  Castle is sitting on $1,547,493.  Somebody, Jerry Northington, Dennis Spivack, Beau Biden, needs to make a run at him.  Ine run will probably cut this down to manageable and beatable size.  Yes, this is a sore spot.

D+5 is Chris Shays.  Shays scores well on Progressive Punch but he is not only a proponent of the Iraq War but is one of the most outspoken proponents of torture.  Even though the latest figures (April 20 from my notes) give him  $1,247,000 and a $200 K lead on Jim Himes we are in the ball park.  He won’t have Joe Lieberman’s coat tails this time.  We need to take him out this time.

D+4 leaves us with the well heeled Frank Lo Biondo (NJ-2) and the even heelier Mark Kirk.  Moderate Republicans but Kirk had the fight of his life last cycle and Dan Seals is back for more.  A lot of people talk about Obama’s coat tails.  Well, if it shows up anywhere this is it.  LoBiondo has had a series of free rides.  Time to give him a tussle.

D+3 gives us two races both open seats with a financial edge to the Democrats.  Yeah. baby.  In NJ-3, John Adler has $1,003,551 while the Republican is at $288,100.  Srick a fork in him?

In NY-25, Dan Maffei’s “opponent” has yet to show a $1 in the bank.  Maffei has $675,660.  I honestly think that the NY State GOP is conceding this House seat.

D+2 has four House seats held by Republicans with one, NM-1, open.  Looking good.  The lead Republican has $297,499.  Nice but not overwhelming.  Look for McCain to slurp up a lot of outside funding and for the GOP to leave this seat to fend for itself.  (you did see those Udall polls up-ticket)  The other three seats show one with an incumbent being outraised (WA-8) where Darcy Burner appears to have the edge (finally) on Dave Reichert.  Two others, both in PA, give the early money lead to the Republican incumbents.  Neither Gerlach in PA-6 ($714,580 to $168,259) nor Charlie Dent in PA-15 ($182,830) is home free by any means.

D+1 has only three seat including the weakest incumbent Republican on the board.  That’s Vito Fossella.  Fossella has only $248,100 in the bank and that’s after a vigorous fund raising campaign in the first quarter that rescued him from a pathetic $50 K cash on hand.  He’s cancelling fund raisers, enmeshed in scandals (plural, the DUI, the mistress, the child).  And he’s outraised by Recchia with new candidates from both parties chomping at the bit.  One has to go all the way to R+6 to find an incumbent Republican running for re-election with a smaller bank account than Vito Fossella (Ken Calvert of CA-44 and Tim Johnson of IL-15).

As for the other D+1 Republicans, Jon Porter has $1,083,693 in NV-3 and he will need it against Dina Titus.  Bill Young may get a vigorous challenge for once.  He was my congressman in the 70’s (and 80s) and is still there with $555,655 in the bank.  The GOP plan appears to be for Young, who has been in the House since 1970, to take it to re-districting. I haven’t seen it written anywhere but it makes sense.  In four years they hope to draw more friendly lines.  This seems to be our best chance before 2012.

Speaking of low hanging fruit, here come the underfunded and open seats:

NY-23 McHugh $261,698 (O, actually R+0.2)  Oot (not a typo)is seriously underfunded as his opponent but McHugh could be the victim of a late charge if the DCCC has money in its coffers.

NJ-7 Open, R+1.  Linda Stender has a serious cash lead ($845 K) as former firsr daughter Kate Whittman ($307 K) takes on Leonard Lance ($255 K)and others in a primary.  The district has already rejected another first child, Tom Keane, Jr., in a recent GOP primary duel.  We lost this seat by 2.000 votes last time with the Out of Iraq Now party or some such pulling 3,000.  Should win here.

MN-1 Open, R+1.  Jim Ramstad is gone but Ash Madia seems to be facing a money gap against Erik Paulsen.

MN-2, Kline, R+3.  This may be the sleeper of this cycle.  Kline is clearly conservative.  Ramstad and Bachmann’s districts will get the attention and Kline is sitting against Steve Sarvi with just $375 K in the bank.  Attack everywhere and someplace will be open (see Lincoln re: New Orleans capture).

OH-15, Open, R+1.  Mary Jo Kilroy came close last time and is a local official.  In some ways we may have the incumbency factor here.  Steve Stivers has done a great job of fund raising for the Republicans with $599,689.

VA-11, open, R+1.  Feels the same as OH-15.  Again, the GOP has raised cash here: $742,045.

AZ-1, open, R+2.  Scandal plagued Rick Renzi leaves this seat.  Ann Kirkpatrick has a 2-1 fund raising edge over “cowgirl” (not) Sydney Hay in a likely all-female faceoff.

CA-45, Bono Mack, R+3.  New husband (Connie Mack of FL-14) 3,000 miles away may cause Mary Bono Mack to leave this Palm Springs district a little unattended.  At $344,123 she’s one of the most poorly funded incumbents on this list.

NC-8, Robin Hates, R+3.  Self-funder Robin Hayes is loaded with $987 K against Larry Kissell.  No surprises this time, Larry.  Got to beat his pampered butt for real.

FL-15, open, R+4.  Nobody has really geared up to take Dave Weldon’s seat.  Why not us?

IL-18, open, R+5.  Aaron Schock is a loud mouthed kid who the GOP has annointed as a golden boy.  Only he has little cash advantage (only $188 k vs. over $100 K) vs. media savvy Coleen Callahan.  Save us from another one of these congressional brats.  Please.  We have a real good chance, here.

VA-10, Wolf, R+6.  Yes he’s got $715 K but Judy Feder can raise the green stuff, too.  The district is shading more blue.  Is this the time?

OH-7, open, R+6.  Their candidate has $51,819.

CA-44, Calvert, R+6.  Give it a whirl at $222 K.

CA-46, Rohrabacher, R+6.  $331 K in the bank.  Less than half the national average; 40% what the average incumbent carries on this list.

IL-15, Tim Johnson, R+6.  $106,759.  Johnson is a) principled, b)lazy, c)one heck of a poker player d) stupid/”lucky”.  Don’t know bur gee is that a tempting number to cause problems.

The Cook Political Report’s House editor Davis Wasserman just revised his outlook for Democratic gains and now estimates a 10 to 20 seat pickup for Democrats.

House Editor David Wasserman examines the outlook in the House following the special election outcome in Mississippi’s 1st CD. The Cook Political Report now estimates that Democrats will gain between 10 and 20 seats in the House.

In addition, he has revised the WV-02 race slightly in our favor.

MS-01- Travis Childers- Republican Toss Up to Democratic Toss Up

WV-02- Shelley Moore Capito- Solid Republican to Likely Republican

Good news all around!

Candidate filing is sailing along with lots of states now having completed candidate filings and others with a full slate of Democratic House candidate long before filings close.

Below the fold for details and once again go and take a look at the 2008 Race Tracker Wiki.  

***I have included Cook PVI numbers where possible after blogger requests to do so!***

3 more House races have a Democratic candidate that has filed in the last two weeks:

MI-03 – R+9,

MI-06 – R+2.3,

MI-10 – R+4,

And one race comes off the list entirely!:

MS-01 – R+10, following Travis Childers superb special election victory!

So 417 races filled! This of course includes 236 districts held by Democratic Congresscritters.

But we also have 181 GOP held districts with confirmed Democratic opponents.

So here is where we are at (GOP Districts):

Districts with confirmed candidates – 181

Districts with unconfirmed candidates – 0

Districts with rumoured candidates – 4

Districts without any candidates – 3

Filing closed – No Democratic candidate – 11

The GOP held districts with confirmed Democratic challengers are as follows:

AL-01 – R+12,

AL-02 – R+13,

AL-03 – R+4,

AL-04 – R+16,

AK-AL – R+14,

AZ-01 – R+2,

AZ-02 – R+9,

AZ-03 – R+6,

AZ-06 – R+12,

CA-02 – R+13,

CA-03 – R+7,

CA-04 – R+11,

CA-21 – R+13,

CA-24 – R+5,

CA-25 – R+7,

CA-26 – R+4,

CA-40 – R+8,

CA-41 – R+9,

CA-42 – R+10,

CA-44 – R+6,

CA-45 – R+3,

CA-46 – R+6,

CA-48 – R+8,

CA-49 – R+10,

CA-50 – R+5,

CA-52 – R+9,

CO-04 – R+9,

CO-05 – R+15.7,

CO-06 – R+10,

CT-04 – D+5,

DE-AL – D+7,

FL-01 – R+19,

FL-04 – R+16,

FL-05 – R+5,

FL-06 – R+8,

FL-07 – R+3,

FL-08 – R+3,

FL-09 – R+4,

FL-10 – D+1,

FL-12 – R+5,

FL-13 – R+4,

FL-14 – R+10,

FL-15 – R+4,

FL-18 – R+4,

FL-21 – R+6,

FL-24 – R+3,

FL-25 – R+4,

GA-01 – R+?,

GA-03 – R+?,

GA-06 – R+?,

GA-07 – R+?,

GA-09 – R+?,

GA-10 – R+?,

GA-11 – R+?,

ID-01 – R+19,

ID-02 – R+19,

IL-06 – R+2.9,

IL-10 – D+4,

IL-11 – R+1.1,

IL-13 – R+5,

IL-15 – R+6,

IL-16 – R+4,

IL-18 – R+5.5,

IL-19 – R+8,

IN-03 – R+16,

IN-04 – R+17,

IN-05 – R+20,

IN-06 – R+11,

IA-04 – D+0,

IA-05 – R+8,

KS-01 – R+20,

KS-04 – R+12,

KY-01 – R+10,

KY-02 – R+12.9,

KY-04 – R+11.7,

LA-01 – R+18,

LA-04 – R+7,

MD-01 – R+10,

MD-06 – R+13,

MI-02 – R+9,

MI-03 – R+9,

MI-04 – R+3,

MI-06 – R+2.3,

MI-07 – R+2,

MI-08 – R+1.9,

MI-09 – R+0,

MI-10 – R+4,

MI-11 – R+1.2,

MN-02 – R+2.7,

MN-03 – R+0.5,

MN-06 – R+5,

MO-02 – R+9,

MO-06 – R+5,

MO-07 – R+14,

MO-08 – R+11,

MO-09 – R+7,

MS-03 – R+14,

MT-AL – R+11,

NE-01 – R+11,

NE-02 – R+9,

NE-03 – R+23.6,

NV-02 – R+8.2,

NV-03 – D+1,

NJ-02 – D+4.0,

NJ-03 – D+3.3,

NJ-04 – R+0.9,

NJ-05 – R+4,

NJ-07 – R+1,

NJ-11 – R+6,

NM-01 – D+2,

NM-02 – R+6,

NY-13 – D+1,

NY-23 – R+0.2,

NY-25 – D+3,

NY-26 – R+3,

NY-29 – R+5,

NC-03 – R+15,

NC-05 – R+15,

NC-06 – R+17,

NC-08 – R+3,

NC-09 – R+12,

NC-10 – R+15,

OH-01 – R+1,

OH-02 – R+13,

OH-03 – R+3,

OH-04 – R+14,

OH-05 – R+10,

OH-07 – R+6,

OH-08 – R+12,

OH-12 – R+0.7,

OH-14 – R+2,

OH-15 – R+1,

OH-16 – R+4,

OK-05 – R+12,

OR-02 – R+11,

PA-03 – R+2,

PA-05 – R+10,

PA-06 – D+2.2,

PA-09 – R+15,

PA-15 – D+2,

PA-16 – R+11,

PA-18 – R+2,

PA-19 – R+12,

SC-01 – R+10,

SC-02 – R+9,

SC-03 – R+14,

SC-04 – R+15,

TN-01 – R+14,

TN-02 – R+11,

TN-03 – R+8,

TN-07 – R+12,

TX-03 – R+17,

TX-04 – R+17,

TX-06 – R+15,

TX-07 – R+16,

TX-08 – R+20,

TX-10 – R+13,

TX-12 – R+14,

TX-13 – R+18,

TX-19 – R+25,

TX-24 – R+15,

TX-26 – R+12,

TX-31 – R+15,

TX-32 – R+11,

UT-01 – R+26,

UT-03 – R+22,

VA-01 – R+9,

VA-02 – R+5.9,

VA-04 – R+5,

VA-05 – R+6,

VA-06 – R+11,

VA-07 – R+11,

VA-10 – R+5,

VA-11 – R+1,

WA-04 – R+13,

WA-05 – R+7.1,

WA-08 – D+2,

WV-02 – R+5,

WI-01 – R+2,

WI-06 – R+5,

WY-AL – R+19,

The following GOP held districts have a candidate that is expected to run but is yet to confirm:

None at this stage

The following GOP held districts have rumoured candidates – please note that some of these “rumours” are extremely tenuous!

LA-07 – R+7,

NY-03 – D+2.1,

OK-03 – R+18,

OK-04 – R+13,

The following districts have not a single rumoured candidate:

LA-05 – R+10,

OK-01 – R+13,

WI-05 – R+12,

And last but not least the list I did not want to have to include.

The following Republicans will not have a Democratic opponent in 2008:

AL-06 – R+25,

AR-03 – R+11,

CA-19 – R+10,

CA-22 – R+16,

KY-05 – R+8

TX-01 – R+17,

TX-02 – R+12,

TX-05 – R+16,

TX-11 – R+25,

TX-14 – R+14,

TX-21 – R+13,

Finally due praise to those states where we have a full slate of house candidates – Alaska, Arizona, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Florida, Georgia, Hawaii, Idaho, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Massachusetts, Maryland, Michigan, Minnesota, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New Mexico, North Carolina, North Dakota, Ohio, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennesee, Utah, Vermont, Virginia, Washington, West Virginia and Wyoming.

It is also interesting to note that we have only one race left to fill in New York and Wisconsin. Thats 41 states with a full slate, and 2 states with one race to fill!  

There are also 5 states where filing has closed where we do not have a full slate: Arkansas, Alabama, California, Kentucky and of course Texas. Lets hope the last 4 –  Louisiana, New York, Oklahoma and Wisconsin fill out.

Please note that in some races others at the racetracker site have confirmed candidates that I haven’t. This is because to satisfy me a confirmed candidate has either filed with the FEC, The Sec of State or has an active campaign website, or even if they come and blog and say yep I am running. Others are not so rigorous.

It is also great to see candidates in AZ-06, CA-42, FL-12, LA-06, MS-03, VA-04, VA-06 and WI-06; 8 of 10 districts we did not contest in 2006! The other 2, TX-11 and AL-06, will again go uncontested by Team Blue in 2008.

With 11 uncontested Republicans we will not reach our great 2006 effort of 425 races filled but we will do really well nonetheless.

*** Tips, rumours and what not in the comments please.***